European Bond Yield Summary 4/4/13

The yields remain calm over the last couple days. The ECB rate decision and press conference is on tap over the next hour.

10-Year Yields:
Greece 11.99%
Portugal 6.26%
Slovenia 6.03%
Spain 4.88%
Italy 4.52%
France 1.94%
U.S. 1.82%
U.K. 1.75%
Netherlands 1.71%
Austria 1.64%
Finland 1.50%
Germany 1.28%
Japan 0.45%

Greece is a  hair under 12% showing some stabilization. Portugal, however, is up a couple ticks indicating that this nation is troubled and requires attention.  Slovenia is about 6% and will signal trouble if it moves higher. Spain and Italy remain well-behaved under 5%.  France drops under 2% as money seeks safety in the perceived safer nations.  France and the U.S. are now at only a 12 basis point spread. European money is clearly moving into the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Germany, as well as moving to the U.S. to fuel the ongoing dividend stock bubble. The U.K. yield is flat in the 1.75% area. The Germany-U.S. spread is 54 continuing to hover at multi-month highs in this 54-58 spread range. Thus, either the U.S. yield should move lower (which would mean equities would move lower), or the Germany yield needs to move higher, or a combination of both. Japan at 0.45% is nothing short of remarkable. Portugal and Slovenia require attention moving forward, as well as the ongoing Cyprus drama. The Italy election turmoil is expected to increase as the days move along.

Note Added 7:49 AM:  The ECB rate decision is to leave rates unchanged at 0.75%. The euro is at 1.2820 hovering around 1.28 all morning long. The decision does not impact markets. S&P futures remain higher, now up six. Draghi speaks at 8:30 AM, as the U.S. economic data hits, so markets should move in about forty minutes.

Note Added 8:23 AM:  The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield drops under 1.80% now printing 1.79%, which is equity bear-friendly and the S&P futures pull back a couple of points to up four.

Note Added 8:51 AM:  Draghi says that accomodative policies will continue as long as needed.  The euro drops under 1.28. The 10-year yield is 1.77% as the U.S. drifts deeper into deflation. The S&P futures are now negative. Jobless Claims are higher than expected. Companies are not hiring. The bottom line EPS earning numbers are simply met by canning employees since the top line revenue numbers remain challenged.