By K E Stone (Keystone)
The United States is defeating coronavirus (COVID-19) with
the combination of vaccines and natural antibodies that creates herd immunity
over time. However, there is reason for concern. The US reports 15.5K daily new
cases yesterday, Friday, 6/25/21. It is Friday data which is usually the
highest day of the week but the downward path of America is interrupted again.
Damn. COVID-19 remains a contagious bastard.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. Sadly, the
daily new cases are flattening-out and basing which stalls the move lower. The
7-day MA is curling higher which is not good. The last 5 days of data for the
7-day MA trend line are; 12.1K, 12.1K, 12.2K, 12.4K and 12.6K clearly the trend
lower has stopped and the path ahead sadly points higher. The 3-day MA
(squiggly trend line) for US daily new cases prints a higher high which hints
that a new upward-moving trend is starting to take hold.
A week or so ago there was a leveling-off scare with US daily
new cases but then cases started lower again. The same outcome would be great
but this current data path appears worse than a week ago. America now needs to
remain vigilant. This will not be easy for Americans euphorically frolicking in
the summer sunshine.
The US active cases chart is shown above. The active cases
curve is not coming down as sharply as desired to form the bell shape. Instead,
it moves slowly and painfully lower. This is mainly due to California and a
handful of other states whose active cases charts remain stubbornly elevated
with no signs of dropping. America needs the active cases chart to drop faster.
This is discussed more below the state list later in the article.
The US deaths chart is shown above. The 7-day MA trend line
is moving sideways but it needs to move lower. It would be bad if the 7-day MA
began curling higher. The last 3 days of data for the 7-day MA are; 307 deaths,
309 and 309 yesterday. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model projects925K American deaths currently from COVID-19 and forecasts 950K dead by October.
The IHME model is about a 1.5 factor higher than the Worldometer death count.
The downward path of the US coronavirus data is stalling
which is not good. Ideally, we want cases to go to zero some day. The
scientists say about 21% of the US new cases are the India B1617 variant
(delta) which is doubling every 10 to 14 days. In a couple weeks or so,
conceivably, one-half of the new US coronavirus infections could be B1617. The
timing for the slight increase in the data is not helpful since the summer is
beginning and it will be hard to stop Americans from shunning masks and having
fun. Vacations, concerts and events are already booked solid.
It is disappointing and disheartening to see the downward
trajectory of the US data give way to a sideways basing pattern. The data in
the week ahead are very important for the US and will also provide a further
window into the spread of the India B1617 variant. Hope springs eternal and it
is the weekend so today’s (Saturday) and tomorrow’s data are typically the
smallest numbers for the week. America’s data from Monday through next Friday,
7/2/21, is important for gauging the path forward.
Arkansas is a US state in trouble and the chart is shown
above. The moving averages are sloping higher which is not good. A new wave is
starting. Arkansas reports 485 daily new cases last Tuesday, 6/22/21, so this
is a line in the sand. If daily new cases do not overtake 485, the data should
roll over lower and conditions improve. If the Arkansas daily new cases exceed
485 cases for any day this week, Little Rock, Fayetteville and Fort Smith
officials will be paraphrasing the Apollo 13 astronauts exclaiming that ‘we
have a problem’. Utah and a few other states are in the same boat which is
explained after the state list below.
If the trend is going to peter-out and roll over lower again
for Arkansas, which is desired, it has to do it this week, otherwise a further
uptrend will begin ramping steeply higher. The concern increases that the less
vaccinated southern states will be a hotbed of covid activity all summer long.
Being outside helps reduce the spread of coronavirus but the hot, humid,
sweltering weather chases southerners inside to the air conditioning where they
breathe on each other and breathe-in each other’s recirculated air.
Thus, cases rise. Arkansas, Utah, Missouri, Louisiana,
Alabama, Mississippi and other southern states, Tennessee is in that bunch, and
Colorado out west, are the key states to watch to gauge the spread of the India
variant. Also, watch the UK, Portugal, Israel and Sydney (Australia) to note
the spread and contagiousness of B1617 worldwide. In a couple weeks, the US and
world will know the extent of the potential spread of B1617. Will it be a pig
in a poke or will we be back in covid Hell again?
The US southern states are a key focus due to the wide swath
of unvaccinated populations. In the northeast US states that have the highest
vaccination rates, there are 5% or so of the population that remains
unvaccinated. Interestingly, if you are unvaccinated living in the northeast,
maybe Vermont, or New Hampshire, up there with the trees and mountains, you are
likely at less risk to catch coronavirus than the unvaccinated person in the middle
of Arkansas where most everyone around you is also unvaccinated.
Interestingly, overnight, the WHO says fully vaccinated
people should continue wearing masks. What?! How can you encourage people to
become vaccinated saying they will no longer need masks when the WHO says they
will need a mask even if vaccinated? No wonder the public is constantly
confused.
WHO spokesperson Dr Mariangela Simao spreads doom and gloom
proclaiming, “People cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses. They
still need to protect themselves. Vaccine alone won’t stop community
transmission. People need to continue to use masks consistently, (and) be in
ventilated spaces.” She says maintaining physical distance, avoiding crowds and
washing hands remains important. The statement is a joke. People cannot live
their entire lives hiding under the bed. If Simao wants to, God Bless her. The
WHO’s statement will only serve to hurt the vaccination process when they are
charged, through COVAX, with distributing the vaccines worldwide.
The pandemic is at an interesting juncture with the world
cautiously tip-toeing across the India variant egg shells. The UK daily new
cases chart is shown above with wave 4 clearly in progress. What a shame that
all that good that was done after wave 3 has flittered away into nothingness.
The UK daily cases are running between 15K and 17K the last 3 days and the
chart is threatening to go into a parabolic move (straight higher). Judging by
the UK data, the fear-mongering about the India B1617 variant is justified.
Sadly, as this is written, the UK crosses the 128K total deaths grim milestone.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not sleeping well these days.
Indonesia crosses 2 million total cases and the island
nation is in the fight of its life. The Indonesia daily new cases chart is
shown above. The parabolic move is frightening and tells of great misery and
chaos in the hospital system. Good luck to them. Malaysia is battling back from
its recent wave that was about one month ahead of Indonesia but they must
remain on guard to not become reinfected from Indonesia.
Vietnam’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Vietnam’s
cases have gone parabolic reporting nearly 900 cases yesterday the highest
ever. The numbers are small compared to other nations but there are 900 more
families worried about a loved one today. Cambodia, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam
continue fighting coronavirus along with the island nations of Malaysia and
Indonesia.
Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The 2020
Summer Olympics in Tokyo is starting on 7/23/21 a year later than the original
plan. Time is ticking away with only 27 days remaining until the Games begin,
however, a covid fly just landed in the Olympic wedding soup. Japan’s daily new
cases are slightly higher but it is enough to create a higher high in the
squiggly 3-day MA trend line. This is not good. It confirms that the downtrend
in daily cases has stopped and the data is instead leveling-off and basing
sideways.
This is bad because a new infection wave may be in progress
as the Olympic stadium torch is lit. The next couple weeks of data will tell
the story. For now, Japan should be okay and the Olympics should go off fine,
but an exponential rise in the daily new cases curve would be problematic. If
the athletes are kept in their bubbles, they can compete and make it through
the Games so their extensive training can be appreciated. It is the rest of
Japan that would be at risk if the situation worsens not so much the athletes. Japan
needs to run a tight ship to make sure a new wave does not take hold, as they
are capable of doing.
The South Africa daily new cases chart is shown above with
new cases at nearly 19K a record high for the current wave 3 teasing all-time
highs. South Africa is under siege from COVID-19 as well as its neighbors
Namibia and Botswana. South Africa’s daily new cases chart goes parabolic. The
pandemic is out of control and the healthcare system is fighting to keep up
with the tragedy.
The Columbia and Guatemala daily new cases charts are shown
above. Colombia cases are the highest ever for the pandemic. Venezuelans
continue crossing the Colombia border back and forth each day to acquire goods
since their country is in shambles. COVID-19 spreads northward through Central
America and on to Mexico.
Guatemala daily cases are over 2.2K per day setting records.
Wave 5 is in progress and now rivaling the worse days of the pandemic. Guatemalan
politicians and officials should quit spending time developing a government that
runs on bitcoin and digital currency and instead help the citizens that are
getting sick with coronavirus and dying.
Russia’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Russia is in
serious trouble as wave 3 goes parabolic. What is the efficacy of the Sputnik V
vaccine? Perhaps the vaccine does not last a long time? Dictator Putin has a
big problem that not even the ‘snowmobiles for shots’ vaccine campaign can
save.
Focusing back on the US, the CDC COVID Data Tracker reports newhospital admissions trending lower. This is good news but the CDC data lags by
a few days. Ditto the US hospitalizations that continue trending lower. This is
some good news in the sea of covid negativity described above.
President Biden threw in the towel on meeting the goal of
vaccinating 70% of the US adult population by 7/4/21 (currently at 66%). The
holiday is only 8 days away and Sleepy Joe sees the writing on the wall. Biden
will also miss the goal of vaccinating 160 million Americans by Independence
Day (currently at 152 million). It never hurts to check the math to keep the
politicians honest and perhaps see if a trick is in play.
65.8% of the US adult population has at least one shot. This
is 170 million people which means there are 258 million American adults over 18
years old (170/0.658). There are 330 million Americans so there are 72 million
minors under 18 years old (330-258). Biden’s goal of 70% is 181 million adults
(258x0.7).
Since 170 million adults are vaccinated with at least one
shot, the president needs another 11 million adults to get over the finish line
(181-170). Vaccinating 11 million American adults in 8 days is 1.4 million
doses per day and actually a bit higher since some are getting second shots and
some are minors. You can see why Biden threw in the towel. No one expected the
vaccination rate to fall completely off the cliff the last few weeks and is
only running at one-half that rate needed.
On the CDC Data Tracker site, if you click the Vaccinationstab and then the Vaccination Trends tab the vaccination rate chart comes up.
The current rate, based on the 7-day MA, is only 726K doses per day and this
data is a week old. No wonder Biden had to fold his cards. At a rate of 0.73
million doses per day currently (726K), 8 days will get you another 6 million
people vaccinated. If the second shots and minors offset the further drop in
the vaccination rate in recent days that the data does not yet show, let’s say
all 6 million are adults. That still leaves Uncle Joe 5 million short when the
hotdogs are grilling next Sunday.
President Biden has to be disappointed in the collapse in
the US vaccination rate. If cases rise in the States, especially in the south
where the vaccination rates are low, there may still be trouble and some twists
and turns ahead for America. This will not be received well by an economy that
wants to reopen and a public ready to par-tay.
Pundits will say a few days is an eternity in politics. They
are right. There are still 8 days remaining in the Biden goal countdown. If the
official approval is given to one of the vaccines, Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna,
instead of emergency approval, the US military could shoot millions of arms in
a matter of only 2 or 3 days. As the old saying goes, it is not over until the
fat lady sings. In fact, a betting man, or down and dirty stock trader, may
wager a bet that official approval may magically appear within the next few
days say by mid-week.
The military would then conveniently happen to have crates
of vaccine lined up for the troops that will kneel and roll up their sleeves no
longer able to refuse the shot. One-half of the military does not want the shot
while the other half is vaccinated just like the CDC organization where it is
blasphemy to discuss the subject. Once the emergency approval is replaced with
the official approval, the people standing ground not wanting to be vaccinated
will feel the earth slipping away below their feet.
Biden may still reach that 70% goal. Keystone is cynical
about Joe throwing in the towel. Biden may be saying the game is over only to
miraculously cross the 70% vaccination finish line with only minutes to spare,
as flags are waved, hamburgers are consumed and fireworks explode. We will know
the final answer about the 70% goal next weekend and not before then. If the
goal should magically be reached out of the blue, Biden will be carried around
the Whitehouse lawn like an Egyptian king during the Independence Day
celebration with over 1,000 worshipping fans attending.
Studies are questioning the efficacy of the Chinese vaccines
Sinovac and Sinopharm. Oddly, the vaccination program is successful within
China but neighboring Mongolia and other nations receiving these vaccines,
Chile is another that comes to mind, are not experiencing great outcomes. Is
China performing further experiments on unwitting countries? Are the communists
taking advantage of the horrific situation they created? Never trust a filthy
communist; they will slit your throat while you sleep in the middle of the
night.
The Chinese vaccines may only be about 50% to 79% effective
versus the 90%+ efficacy of the US mRNA vaccines. Bottom line; infections are
higher in the countries that used the Chinese vaccines versus other vaccines.
Dirtbag Dictator Xi can never be trusted. The filthy CCP runs the show in China
and the Chinese citizens have no choice but to do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads.
Keystone remains on the fence about receiving the
vaccination. He is willing but he wants Nurse Goodbody to administer the shots
into his buttock cheeks. The beautiful nurse has heard all the stories before
and says it is the arm or nothing. She is the Roadrunner and Keystone is Wile E
Coyote. The CDC and other medical bigshots recommend receiving the shot in the
opposite arm that is used regularly so a new idea takes hold.
Keystone meets with Nurse Goodbody telling her he is ready
for the shot but as fate, or perhaps luck, would dictate, he is ambidextrous, one
of the rare folks that use the left and right arms interchangeably for writing
and other tasks all day long. Therefore, he told Nurse Goodbody that there is
no choice but to receive the shots in the buttocks since both arms are used
daily. Keystone requested that the pretty nurse can start with the left cheek. Nurse
Goodbody would have none of it sternly telling Keystone he would have to pick
an arm.
Alas, Keystone will have to think some more about receiving
the vaccination. Nurse Goodbody walks on but suddenly stops, stands motionless,
thinks for a few seconds, pivots, smiles, and tells Keystone she appreciates
the humor and perhaps the shot arrangements can be accommodated, but she is
making no guarantees. Nurse Goodbody then turns away again beginning another
long grueling shift at the covid ward. Keystone is happy because now he has achance.
A lot of the doom and gloom and fear-mongering in the United
States these days is to scare people into getting vaccinated but the public is
moving on from the pandemic and focused on summer fun instead. Most of the
messaging from the CDC, NIH, and media is falling on deaf ears. People are fed
up with how the pandemic has disrupted their lives.
The big sales pitch for vaccines is that they will prevent
you from dying or becoming seriously ill, which is proven correct for the vast
majority, and also that the masks can be ditched. As mentioned above, the WHO
provides conflicting information overnight telling the world to wear a mask
even if double vaccinated. That will go over like a lead balloon. People are
told to get vaccinated and their life will not change at all. Good luck wit dat,
as they say in Brooklyn.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus casesin the world at 34.5 million. India is next with 30.2 million total virus cases.
Brazil, France, Russia, Turkey, UK, Argentina, Italy and Colombia round out the
top ten.
Coronavirus has infected over 181 million people worldwide.
3.9 million people have died. Fortunately, 166 million global citizens have
recovered from the China Flu. 92% (166/181) of the people that become infected
with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame. This percentage has improved
by about 7 points over the last 7 weeks which is great news for the world. More
young people may be getting sick but they must be recovering faster. The 92% is
the highest recovery percentage of the pandemic. The world has learned a lot about COVID-19
over the last 17 months but much remains a mystery as well.
Worldwide, 2.2% (3.9/181) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many months. 1 in every 46
people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world will die, and this
number does not budge week after week even month after month. It is always
2.1%-2.2% and will not change. The global mortality rate is at an impasse for
months. It will be a great day if it ever decreases.
2.4% (181/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 42 people on earth. The Wuhan
Virus has negatively impacted everyone on the planet in one way or the other.
The worldwide deaths from COVID-19 are over 3.9 million people
heading to 4 million. More people die this year from coronavirus than all of
last year. China screwed the world.
In the United States, 34.5 million people are infected with covid.
619,162 Americans are dead. 28.9 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to nearly 84% (28.9/34.5) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number increases by almost 6 percentage-points over
the last 7 weeks after spending several weeks flat.
As stated above, more young people are becoming sick and
likely recovering faster giving the recovery numbers a slight boost. The US recovery
rate should be much higher but the rampant overweight and obesity problem guarantees
that many Americans contracting covid will die. The reason that the US recovery
percentage is lower than the rest of the world is because the majority of us
are overweight eating cookies, ice cream and potato chips each day. For some,
it is their Last Supper.
In the US, 1.8% (619/34483) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week, for multiple months, but the
vaccines are supposed to reduce deaths. It is amazing how this number will not
budge month after month. It will be a big deal when the 1.8% drops lower.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is hitting
its stride. The death rate is at 2.2% globally which is higher than the US
reflecting the lower vaccination rates, less medical equipment such as ventilators
and oxygen tanks, less hospitals and less medical folks to work at the
facilities. And, also, of course, more people will die in poorer nations than
wealthier nations.
10.5% (34.5/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 10 Americans (1 in 9.6 to be
exact) have been stricken with coronavirus. The minority communities are
impacted disproportionately. This number remains relatively steady for several months.
The United States has 19.1% (34.5/181) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program is making a difference. This percentage
was 22% several weeks ago so the drop is great news for the US but sadly, bad
news for other nations since their infection numbers are higher.
The US accounts for 16.0% (619/3928) of the China Flu deaths
in the world. The trend is slowly lower. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around
the world are Americans. A couple months ago, it was 1 in 5. The numbers are going
in the right direction for the US but that means proportionally more people are
dying elsewhere such as Russia, Indonesia, South Africa and Central America.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart
represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare
workers. Once the bell curve forms with active cases dropping dramatically, the
virus will be defeated, and healthcare workers can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart. However, several of these nations are dealing with nasty new outbreaks
and waves so no country is ever safe from the virus until it is eradicated
everywhere, or burns itself out.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last three months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes
compress slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a
couple days can be shaved off the current target dates. The Keystone Model will
not change since it needs to be consistent the whole way through the pandemic
in its approach.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. You see these
daily new cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically
show the 7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that
helps identify the trend.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily new cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if
it is within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the
daily new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new
case date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new
case peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that
you see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 11 days this time, and more data and information
become available to push the China Flu story forward. The information in the
Coronavirus Chronology articles is vital to understanding the progress of the
pandemic and knowing where the hotspots exist. The chronology serves as a
historical document that will be referenced for decades to come by those that
want to experience the entire pandemic as it unfolds in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and distributed internationally. This is
Article 46 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This forty-sixth article is published on Saturday,
6/26/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward.
All 46 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The pandemic needs technical chart experts to help the officials interpret the
data. The last couple articles are linked below if you want to come up to speed
with the COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracking Project is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days. The
Worldometer data is far superior for forecasting since it is updated more
reliably in real-time.
The worst countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening
of the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls
over forming the bell shape.
Angola’s active cases chart rolls over to form the bell
shape so it was removed from the bad list below. Ditto Costa Rica, Bhutan,
Egypt, Paraguay, Chile, South Korea (although the data remains erratic) and Bolivia.
The worst nations are at the bottom since their daily new
cases are higher in recent days (new outbreaks and waves are beginning or in
progress) and it will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over to
form the bell shape for those troubled nations.
Honduras (Continuous Wave) (daily
new cases run higher but may be underreported)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve trying to flatten)
6/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever)
6/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/2/21 New Case Peak Date (cases
ramping higher and likely to become far worse)
6/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/11/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
6/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fourth wave)
7/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fifth wave)
6/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to flatten)
6/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/21/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fifth wave occurring in June)
7/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 6/17 and 6/22/21)
7/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/22/21 New Case Peak Date
7/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/24/21 New Case Peak Date
7/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
7/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 4)
7/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 6/24 and 6/25/21)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for wave 4)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for wave 3)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest daily cases ever)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve goes parabolic)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of wave 4)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of wave 4)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of wave 3)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 6/21 and 6/25/21)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 4)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of wave 4)
7/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Southern Africa is a mess. The virus infiltrated the western coast including Angola, Namibia and South Africa which were identified as trouble spots a month or more ago. Angola is actually improving but the virus spread continues up the eastern side of the continent to Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Zambia. The DRC-Congo remains in bad shape.
The spread moves north and Malawi is starting to see an
increase in infections but it is early. Tanzania will likely follow after that.
If COVAX or whoever is coordinating the Africa vaccination program was smart,
they would take a large chunk of vaccine and inoculate Tanzania as a firewall
to stop the spread. If status quo continues, Malawi and Tanzania will be fully
engulfed with infections in a month.
Africa is the least vaccinated place on earth and the new
data and charts, and bad list of nations above, prove the point. The US and
other Western nations are thinking about booster shots in the coming months but
for God’s sake why not at least try to give the world a round of vaccinations
first. Humans better start looking out for each other more.
The UK daily new cases peak on Thursday, 6/24/21, although
new highs can easily occur in the week ahead. Adding 28 days as per the
Keystone Model forecasts that the UK active cases curve will flatten and roll
over on 7/22/21 give or take a few days. If the UK is lucky, perhaps by
mid-July the current wave will peter out. It depends on how the India B1617
variant spreads. The daily new cases will tell the story.
Portugal is on the bad list as the daily new cases increase and
the new wave 4 is underway. Portugal will also serve as a test case to see how
fast the India B1617 variant spreads. Spain better watch out. Spain’s daily
cases hint that they may be lifting so the bull-fighting nation may be in big
trouble in a couple weeks following Portugal’s lead. Portugal and Spain are
favorite vacation spots, especially for Europeans, and the officials are
relaxing travel guidelines. Good luck to all. Lots of people are going to
become sick with covid after chasing the beautiful women in their colorful bikinis.
Vietnam is in trouble with record cases. As the chart above
describes, the numbers are small but that does not matter when the infected
person is a member of your family. Thailand’s data remains worrisome and it may
end up on the bad list again. India continues recovering but is stuck in themiddle of its neighbor to the west, Bangladesh, and joker to the right,Myanmar, that are in deep trouble fighting new outbreaks.
Russia is at the bottom of the bad list with the daily new
cases setting records for the new wave 3. Dictator Putin is in his bubble
telling the sick Ruskies to eat borscht. There is skepticism about the
effectiveness of the Chinese vaccines Sinovac and Sinopharm and Russia’s
Sputnik V may as well be tossed into this group as well. Russia is in bad shape
but the world is kept in the dark by the state-run media. Just like communist
China.
China is recovering from an outbreak in Guangzhou and
Shenzhen which impacted the key port of Yantian. The communists say the port is
running as normal again but since the CCP always lies, the export port is
likely coming back on line but not completely up to regular operation as yet.
Colombia remains in bad shape and the infections continue
northward into Guatemala and other Central American countries also causing a
rise in cases in Mexico. This may create headaches for the United States at the
southern border in about a month or so.
The Southeast Asia hot zone continues. Ditto Central America
and southern and south western Africa. UK and Portugal must be watched closely
in the coming days.
The northern hemisphere of the planet is in good shape with
more of its populations vaccinated than the southern hemisphere and the summer
season is ahead which helps tamp down the virus spread. The southern hemisphere
is going into the winter season and will be a harbinger on what the northern
hemisphere can expect this Fall. Sydney, Australia, goes into lockdown fighting
an outbreak.
The next list focuses on the US with 7 states at the bottom under
concern. The peak in daily new cases and projections for the peaks in active
cases are provided as per the Keystone Model. The flattening and roll over of
the active cases curve forming the bell shape indicates the virus is being
defeated. America has lots to celebrate including the approaching summer
weather.
The states below have flat or rising active cases curves.
The worst 7 states are at the bottom since their daily new cases are higher in
recent days and it will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over to
form the bell shape. The top 7 states may be more related to data headaches.
Kentucky (Continuous Wave) (data
is problematic; daily new cases are likely underreported)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over lower)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over lower)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave 4/26, 5/3 and 5/14/21)
6/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten; give it a couple more days)
5/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
6/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
6/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
6/23/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for wave 5 are 6/22 and 6/23/21)
7/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
6/24/21 New Case Peak Date
7/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
6/24/21 New Case Peak Date
7/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
6/25/21 New Case Peak Date
7/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
The 7 states listed at the top are likely underreporting their daily new cases or there is some other problem with their data. It is impossible for daily new cases to drop drastically month after month but for the active cases to flatline. These 7 states of Kentucky, Rhode Island, Maryland, California, Virginia, Idaho and Maine are the reason the US active cases curve shown above is not coming down at a faster clip.
The active cases charts for these 7 states are similar to
the total daily cases cumulative curves so there may be an issue with the
formulas. The 7 states are showing flat active cases curves so they will roll
over going forward and should not be considered to be in trouble currently. The
7 states at the top are likely on the bad list only due to a data reporting or
formulation error.
Utah is a surprise coming out of left field. Daily cases are
rising and the active cases curve curls higher. Utah is next door to Colorado the
state everyone is worried about in relation to the India B1617 variant (delta).
Utah folks travel to Colorado and back to pick up marijuana so there is a lot
of border crossings occurring. Interestingly, Colorado data looks fine but Utah
does not so perhaps the variant spread is actually emanating from Utah where
deaths also spike higher.
Salt Lake City, Utah, is known worldwide for its Mormon (most prefer the name LDS; The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) population and one-half of this group is vaccine hesitant so that jives with
the new outbreak. Also, the famous, or infamous, Area 51 and other government
installations are in the state so lots of people from around the country and
world move in and out of the region conducting secretive government business.
These folks are probably passing germs when they perform the
secret handshake.
The rise in cases in the western states is interesting.
Nevada reports a spike in daily new cases which can easily kick off a new wave
in that state. The active cases curve is not yet curling higher but Nevada will
probably end up on the bad list above next time. Las Vegas must be partying
again so cases may quickly rise. Kisses, hugs and things that stay in Vegas
that are never discussed again, are going to create many covid infections. At
least folks are having fun as they become sick.
Nebraska remains on shaky ground and must be itching to get
on the bad list. For now, the Cornhusker state will be monitored closely. Keep
an eye on Alaska that may also see a rise in cases going forward.
The worst states at the bottom of the list are Alabama,
Utah, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Hawaii and Washington with a hairy eyeball
on Nevada, Nebraska and Alaska.
In Pennsylvania, the statewide mask mandate ends Monday,
6/28/21. Pennsylvania started mask mandates on 4/15/20 over 14 months ago. Dear
Lord. Stores can still require all customers to wear masks. Vaccinated folks do
not generally have to wear masks. Unvaccinated folks should continue wearing masks
indoors. Everyone must continue wearing masks on public transportation (rails,
buses, airplanes).
75% of Pennsylvania adults have at least one shot so the
state met President Biden’s goal. 59.4% of Pennsylvanians are fully vaccinated
so 3 in every 5 people. The University of Pittsburgh (Pitt) has lifted mask
mandates for all students outside but still requires masks inside buildings.
The palace intrigue surrounding the Wuhan Lab leak scandal
expands daily. Drips and drabs of information each day create further mystery. US
funds may have found their way to the communist labs through EcoHealth despite
laws that prohibit gain of function research. It would be a huge stink if US
funds were used to fund the Wuhan Lab’s bioweapons research (and it most likely
was). A serious investigation is required.
The mess becomes crazier with news outlets reporting that
the Chinese Vice Minister of State Security Dong Jingwei has defected to the
United States and he knows where all the Wuhan bodies are buried; figuratively
and literally. The US remains quiet about the matter as communist China scrubs
Dong Jingwei’s images from the internet. The story gets better.
Over the last couple days, anonymous US officials say the
story about the Dong Jingwei defection is not true. China also says he did not
defect (of course they would say that) and provides a fuzzy picture of Dong
Jingwei at a conference that some say is photoshopped. The story becomes
nuttier by the day. The palace intrigue will deepen further this week. China is
likely plotting heinous crimes against humanity within the walls of the Wuhan
Labs.
While the spy intrigue occurs on one side of the Wuhan
palace, on the other side the US confirms that the critically-important genomic
sequencing of early coronavirus samples are deleted from the data base at the
request of the communist scientists. These samples are important for
determining the origin of COVID-19. The scandal stink is becoming more odorous
by the minute.
The China Virus was likely modified by Chinese scientists
performing dual research functions in epidemiology and in bioweapons
development at the Wuhan Laboratories. Some of the research was likely funded
by American money. The virus which was made more deadly and contagious by the
gain of function research and most likely escaped from the Wuhan Laboratories,
either accidentally or intentionally, and the communists are doing everything
possible to avoid liability for the disaster that is murdering 4 million
humans. The blood is dripping off of Dictator Xi’s hands. He and the CCP will
pay but the world has to heal first.
The virulency of the India B1617 variant can be assessed by
watching the charts and data for the UK, Portugal, Israel, Sydney, and in the
US watch the states of Utah, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Louisiana and Nevada.
Keep your ears and ears open for any announcement about one
of the mRNA vaccines (probably Pfizer/BioNTech since it was first) receiving
official approval. Once the emergency approval is replaced with official
approval, a big surge in vaccinations will occur both in the military and at
corporations, schools and universities. People not wanting to be vaccinated
will no longer be able to cover themselves with the emergency banner declaring
the vaccines not yet safe. Many will succumb to the establishment rule and roll
up their sleeves.
If the official mRNA vaccine approval occurs this weekend or
by Wednesday, Biden has a chance of reaching the 70% vaccination goal. If it is
midweek, however, and the official approval announcement has not occurred, Sleepy
Joe will not make the 70% goal as he announced last week.
Vaccine hesitancy continues in America. The vaccine shaming
and the fear-mongering is not working. The president and medical people are
scraping the bottom of the barrel for the remaining folks that want vaccinated.
The medical folks have to entice the rock and rollers with the right message
perhaps telling them that the vaccine is ‘only a shot away, shot away’, asFergie sings and rocks-out on Gimme Shelter with U-2, will.i.am and Mick. Maybe
Fergie can provide kisses with each vaccination.
America remains in good shape with the pandemic but is
walking on covid eggshells waiting to see if the India B1617 variant (delta)
casts a dark cloud over the bright summer sun.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 6/27/21, at 5:00 AM EST: UK Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Matt Hancock resigns in shame. Hancock instituted lockdown measures and rules for the UK due to the pandemic but on the side he was comingling with a female staff member that he put on the payroll. It is juicy tabloid gossip that ends his career. The elite class always tells the huddled masses to 'do as I say, not as I do'. Hancock opines that leaders that implement rules must follow the rules themselves. Sure, he says that now after he is kicked out on his ear. Thousands of Londoners take to the streets protesting the lockdowns. Arrests are made. People are sick of the pandemic. Most of the protestors probably do not realize a new coronavirus wave, dominated by the India B1617 variant, is underway in the UK. The UK reports 18.3K daily new cases yesterday another high for wave 4. This is not good. Hancock hides his face in shame as the coronavirus cases ramp ever higher.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 6/27/21, at 6:00 AM EST: 200K Australians are in lockdown in Sydney and other regions. Despite the new restrictions, people are frolicking on beaches without a care in the world. Russia reports 21.7K daily new cases another record for the current wave 3. Where's Putin? Bueller? Vlad? Bueller? 619 Russians die yesterday a hair away from the deadliest day of the pandemic on 12/24/20, Christmas Eve, when 639 died. Russia is in deep trouble. Oh no. Colombia reports 33.6K daily new cases the highest ever. The Colombians and Venezuelans are suffering greatly over the last few months. Life is misery for many. Death counts rise. Panama and Guatemala are in bad shape. Portugal and Spain must take the new outbreak seriously, otherwise the two nations will be knee-deep in covid cases in a month. Portugal does not look good. The covid misery continues in central and southern Africa.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 6/27/21, at 6:30 AM EST: The US reports 6.6K daily new cases a nice low number. It is the weekend when numbers are lower but take the victories where you can get them. 150 Americans die from COVID-19 yesterday. Alabama and Nevada report rising cases. There is an eerie calm with the pandemic in America right now. Things can either go really really well, and the daily cases resume the downtrend, or, go really really bad with the cases in the southern states, especially Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri, and out west with Utah and Nevada, ramping sharply higher forecasting new trouble ahead. The coming days and week or two of data will provide the answer. Today's numbers are typically the lowest of the week so a sub 5K daily new cases number for the US would be great. Last Sunday was sub 5K but with revisions the number bumps up to 7.9K. Any daily cases number for today that is below 10K is great and below 5K is fantastic. Today's daily cases must be below 7.9K if the US has hopes of resuming the downtrend in the data. It looks good since yesterday's daily cases are 6.6K.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 6/27/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Broadway in New York City reopens to an enthusiastic crowd. Rock star Bruce Springsteen's show is sold out to vaccinated people only. Protestors take to the streets in front of the theater saying they are treated like second class citizens because they are unvaccinated. Generally, spirits are high, people have a good time, and everything remains peaceful. The FDA adds a warning notice about the myocarditis issue into the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccine literature. The heart inflammation issue is rare, mainly showing up in young people, with about 1,200 cases documented after 323 million shots into 153 million fully vaccinated Americans.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 6/27/21, at 4:30 PM EST: Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Edge cruise ship sets sail; the first official cruise ship to leave an American port in 15 months (there have been several test cruises the last couple months). The cruise ships last sailed in March 2020 and the Celebrity Edge is only at 40% capacity. Everyone is vaccinated on board. Life's privilege's will only be available to the noble righteous ones that kneel and receive the vaccination shot without rebuttal, while those that are skeptical and choose not to be vaccinated for any reason are viewed as the great unwashed peons, unpatriotic and stupid for not following science. If someone is losing an argument these days, they simply call and label the other person a 'racist' or say 'they are not following science' and storm off claiming to have won the argument. This is the modern-day baby society occurring at the end of a long multi-decade cycle such as Kondraitev.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 6/27/21: The left-leaning Bloomberg media outlet publishes a story on an Australian virologist claiming that the Wuhan Lab leak did not occur, but she has no proof and ends up saying it could have occurred that way. Thanks for nothing except to further highlight the media bias towards pleasing the communists. The story says she is the last foreign virologist at the Wuhan Labs (so unequivocally there is not one single foreign scientist or doctor at the labs currently?) which on face value is hard to believe. She left there weeks before the first case was identified so how is she even relevant? She says everyone there is friendly and well-meaning and she never saw anything nefarious occurring. What a dolt. Do you actually think the communists are going to discuss such matters with a foreign underling in the loop? Come on now. She opines that people should not view her as naïve so she is smart enough to know her words are naïve. The comments sound like a communist sympathizer. She says, "I don't believe the virus is man-made." Remember this phrase. It is purposely said to create confusion about the Wuhan Lab leak. There is no one of prominence pushing the man-made virus idea. No one. The virus was likely brought into the laboratories and manipulated by the Chinese scientists as they carried out their gain of function research and that is when the virus escaped. The virus was likely 'manipulated by men' but talking heads, sympathetic to China and the left in America, will toss around the 'man-made' wording hoping that the Wuhan Lab Leak theory will lose credibility. They want you to envision a mad scientist mixing up chemicals and voila, he created it like a cartoon doctor. How could such a ludicrous idea be thought to be real? This is how the game is played. No one thinks the virus is man-made. Most think it was manipulated in the lab by men but not man-made from scratch. Take note which talking heads mention the man-made idea because you immediately know to never trust whatever they say about coronavirus. Ask the virologist what exact rooms at the lab did she spend time in? Have her point them out on a floor plan. Ask her about the secretive Wuhan Labs. She will say, "What labs?" How is she paid? Who pays her salary and who is paying for the research she is conducting? Does anyone pay her room and board? Inquiring minds want to know. The answers to those questions will tell you a lot. Do not get your coronavirus news from the Bloomberg platform; ignore this latest dribble. Look elsewhere for information. Michael Bloomberg ran for president on the democrat side and poured millions of dollars into the race to defeat former President Trump. The views on the left are more sympathetic to China. It is a mistake to trust the communists and many people are too naïve to know what is going on. The vast majority of people have never been face to face, and have no experience, with people that smile and talk nice to you but then pull out a knife wanting to slit your throat. The world is an ugly place. Wise up.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/28/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Russia is in bad shape with daily new cases exceeding 20K since last Thursday; four consecutive days. Deaths are near record highs. The UK reports 14.9K daily new cases off the peak top of 18.2K cases on Saturday, 6/26/21. The 18.2K is a line in the sand. Conditions will improve if daily cases remain below 18.2K heading lower but a parabolic spike higher would be in play if the 18.2K is exceeded. The next couple days of UK daily cases are extremely important. PM Johnson wants to forge ahead with a reopening of the economy and relaxed guidelines on 7/19/21. The country list above, and chart above, and discussions, forecast that the UK active cases curve will not flatten and roll over until mid-July (the peak stress on the healthcare system). The 7/19/21 is a reasonable goal to remain in place now to see what the next few days of data hold. Comically, the Brit's are fed up with the pandemic like everywhere else, and common folks are saying the 7/19/21 date is too far away and they want to start partying now. UK talking heads say hospitalizations and deaths remain low and flat or falling, and they are correct, especially in the north where hospital patients are down a touch, however, they draw the conclusion that the current India B1617 variant (delta) wave will not be a big deal. The UK should remain concerned and watch the daily cases data this week. The one tried and true process during the pandemic is that infections occur about 7 to 14 days after an event or contact with an infected person. Then, hospitalizations rise a week or two after the daily cases rise. Then, the deaths rise a week or two after the hospitalizations rise. This pattern repeats over and over everywhere around the world. Thus, saying the UK hospital and deaths data forecasts happiness ahead is a bit premature. The daily cases took a big spike higher on 6/23/21; that was a dagger through the lion's heart. Adding a week or two, the 6/30/21 through 7/7/21 period is where the UK hospitalization data is key. Portugal imposes new restrictions on travelers from the UK. Portugal remains in the 1.4K to 1.6K daily cases range and hopefully conditions will not worsen; this week determines Portugal's fate ahead. Spain sees a small bump higher in daily cases.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/28/21, at 6:30 AM EST: Malaysia crosses the 5K deaths grim milestone and extends its lockdown. Malaysia announces an economic plan to help the beleaguered nation. Dear Lord. Malaysia's neighbor, Indonesia, reports 21.3K daily new cases the highest ever. Indonesia and Colombia are the worst nations with coronavirus outbreaks on earth right now. Colombia is such a sad situation to watch each day. Humans simply do not care about each other on a global basis. Conditions are improving in Singapore dealing with a small outbreak. Wave 3 continues in South Africa that issues a Level 4 warning that stiffens the covid guidelines for the next 2 weeks and closes schools.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/28/21, at 8:00 AM EST: The US reports 4.7K daily new cases a sub 5K number like last Sunday. Throw some confetti. The number will likely sneak higher as final numbers come in for the day and move above 5K but it is a great number. It is a Sunday number which is usually the lowest of the week. 149 Americans die Saturday and 93 yesterday, a sub 100 number, so less than 250 deaths in 2 days is great news. This week's data will shed light on the virulency of the India variant and path ahead for America. The media fear-mongering is at fevers pitch since it is a cudgel used to force people to get vaccinated but the doom and gloom may not live up to the hype. The UK, Portugal and Sydney are key test cases for the spread of the B1617 variant. The US states of concern such as Nevada, Utah, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama and others will also provide key data this week to gauge the spread and danger of the India variant (delta). Over 480 US counties have low vaccination rates and the India variant cases are rising in these regions.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/28/21, at 9:00 AM EST: One dozen republican-leaning US states stopped the supplemental unemployment payments to laid off workers this weekend. The politicians believe that taking money away from people, that was promised to them, will encourage them to go back to work. Most families are facing childcare dilemmas. One of the parents has to stay home to watch the kids since many daycare facilities have gone belly-up and other childcare businesses are slow to reopen. Taking money off of common people will not make them go back to work faster. It will force some to go back to work and forever hold a grudge against the bastards that made their tough life even harder. Wealthy people are completely detached from the way common Americans live let a lone poor and destitute folks. One dozen more states have removed the supplemental benefits and that doom will phase-in over the coming days and few weeks. The supplemental runs out in September anyway. Pennsylvania will maintain those payments to the end which is only another 2 months. The dirty truth is that the businesses complaining about worker shortages do not want to increase wages because they know in 2 months the supplemental ends and they will get workers back paying them the normal slave wages. They do not want to raise wages because then they cannot reduce wages in a couple months so many managers will keep complaining instead of paying more. Other businesses are offering bonuses as incentive for folks to come and work for them but again, this is so the pay rates do not have to be bumped higher. The latest is the TSA offering $1000 for workers to return. The coming class war in America is going to be very ugly, probably violent, and will last a decade or two, and similar to the unrest in the 1960's into the 1970's. Just think of all the great rock and roll that came out of that turmoil.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/28/21, at 9:30 AM EST: In the States, listen for the potential announcement that the emergency authorization for one or both mRNA vaccines changes to official licensure. If this occurs before Wednesday, President Biden can still make the 70% vaccination goal. If the official approval for the vaccines is not received by mid-week, Biden will miss his Independence Day goal (which is Sunday, 7/4/21).
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 6/28/21: Pennsylvania, USA, drops its mask mandate today but wants unvaccinated folks to wear a mask in a crowded situation. Stores may still require masks but with the lifting of the order, the signs to wear masks are ripped off windows and crumpled up into garbage cans overflowing on the sidewalks. In two different grocery stores today in southwestern Pennsylvania, there are only 3 people in one store and 4 in the other that are wearing masks and both stores have over 100 people there including clerks and employees. The math does not add up. Obviously, there are lots of unvaccinated folks throwing caution to the wind and walking around without masks. Live for today and don't worry about tomorrow is there motto. If Pennsylvania sees an uptick in positive COVID-19 daily new cases, they will likely appear between 7/7/21 and 7/14/21 so it will be an interesting experiment. With all the people out and about, you would have to look for a while before seeing someone wearing a mask. The country is moving on from coronavirus but is COVID-19 moving on from America?
Note Added Monday Evening, 6/28/21: Bad news out of the UK. The daily new cases numbers today are way big at 22.8K cases. The number will be firmed up over the coming hours. That is bad since it is a new high in cases not seen since late January and early February. PM Johnson's plan for a 7/19/21 opening may have just got blown out of the water. Adding 28 days to today as per the Keystone Model is 7/26/21 when the UK active cases curve would be expected to flatten and roll over to signal the peak caseload at the hospitals. In other words, the UK would be expected to still be battling this ongoing wave 4 in 3 weeks. The higher daily cases is a devastating blow. The data show an interesting oddity in that if you are vaccinated you are hospitalized less (no surprise), but more deaths have occurred with vaccinated rather than unvaccinated Brit's. That is strange data and may be an anomaly, or not. UK scientists and doctors are finding that both doses of vaccine are needed to resist the India variant. Also, waiting a longer time period between shots improves the overall efficacy of the vaccine, however, if people wait a bit longer they are more susceptible to getting coronavirus with only the one shot. PM Johnson has his hands full. The Indian B1617 variant (delta) which accounts for 90%of the UK daily new cases is more transmissible. However, many young folks, that are getting sick in a greater proportion compared to older age groups, are unvaccinated and these are the partiers having fun with friends. Some of the perceived increased transmissibility of B1617 may be attributable to young people being young people. Good luck UK. Your summer will suck. Keep your fingers crossed for an unlikely miraculous stalling of the daily new cases but do not hold your breath. Instead, the daily cases may be going parabolic in the coming days. If so, a bad situation that just turned worse will turn horrendous. Sajid Javid replaces the shamed and disgraced Matt Hancock as British Health Minister. 'It is all you women's fault' as Jimmy Buffett and the Coral Reefer Band sing, along with the Parrothead fans, but the conclusion is that 'it is the man's fault'. Hancock is in a round room looking for a corner to hide.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/29/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The UK reports 22.9K daily new cases yesterday, as explained above, taking out the prior high for this current wave 4 at 18.2K cases. The UK daily new cases chart is going parabolic (vertical). Due to the spike in daily new cases, the Keystone Model forecasts the UK active cases curve to not flatten and roll over (maximum strain on the healthcare workers and system) until 7/26/21 which is beyond PM Johnson's 7/19/21 goal to remove all covid guidelines and fully reopen the economy. Further, if the daily new cases are in an exponential path higher, the date for the active cases curve to flatten and roll over will extend into late July perhaps even August. Portugal reports 902 daily new cases a great number compared to the several days of 1.4K to 1.6K cases. Portugal's daily new cases must remain below 1.6K all week to prove that the new wave 4 can be nipped in the bud and defeated. Good on them but the week will have to play out to know for sure. Spain reports 3.3K daily new cases with the high over the last few days at 4.9K cases. Spain can stay on a good path and avoid a new outbreak if the daily cases remain below 4.9K and head lower. Oh no. Bangladesh reports 8.4K daily new cases a huge spike higher the most cases ever. This is a big problem. 119 die in Bangladesh on Sunday the deadliest day ever. Pakistan and India are recovering and headed in a good direction but to the east of Bangladesh is Myanmar (Burma) which reports a big 1.2K daily new cases the most for the current outbreak and not seen since December. Nepal and Bhutan are hanging in there so there is a nasty bug impacting Bangladesh and Myanmar that serve as the epicenter. Thailand is to the east and reports a spike in daily cases to 5.4K so place them in the troubled boat as well. Thailand started to improve but they are in terrible shape again. People probably do not want to follow rules anymore so infections are spreading. Cambodia and Vietnam are in bad shape and of course Indonesia. Southeast Asia was healing after India started recovering but sadly the spread of COVID-19 is on the increase again. Bhutan and Nepal better batten down the hatches and prevent the spread of coronavirus northward into their nations. Indonesia is in terrible condition and may develop into a humanitarian disaster. Malaysia is on shaky ground since disease is all around them as they cross the 5K deaths grim milestone. South Africa crosses the 60K deaths grim milestone. Colombia remains in terrible shape day after day, month after month. Russia reports over 22K daily new cases 2 of the last 3 days the most cases since mid-January. Russia is hurting but the state-run media obviously does not allow any negative news reports. Russia daily deaths remain only a hair from all-time records for the pandemic. Dictator Putin is sitting on a gold toilet seat at one of his palaces, in 'The Thinker' position, wondering if the Sputnik V vaccine is effective against COVID-19.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/29/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US death count from the China Flu is 619,595 Americans. 3,946,485 have died from the Wuhan Virus worldwide. The countries of the world, nearly 200 of them, will hold filthy Dictator Xi accountable for his nefarious deeds. The CCP is an evil infecting the world; it will have to be stopped. The US reports 10.8K daily new cases yesterday and 137 deaths so the numbers continue in a good direction. The 3-day MA trend line for the US daily new cases thankfully prints a lower low. The 3-day printed a higher high days ago so the daily new cases are in a sideways expansion pattern and deciding which way to break; hopefully it is down. California reports over 1.5K daily new cases the highest number since April. California's active cases curve refuses to drop and now threatens to print at the highest level ever. The US is hanging in there but waiting to see if the virus impacts the southern states and Utah and Nevada in the coming days and few weeks. A recent uptick in US cases may simply be due to Americans getting back to normal and interacting more and perhaps the threat of an increase in cases is already waning.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/29/21, at 9:00 AM EST: Moderna says its vaccine is effective against the India B1617, South Africa B1351 and Nigeria B1525 variants dubbed delta, beta and eta (sounds like the three names of Donald Duck's nephews), respectively, by the WHO (the CCP and PLA boot-licker's). It is only a 'lab study' of eight patients. The vaccines are pumped 24/7. Authorities want everyone to be vaccinated. The dirty little secret is that only about 60% of the employees are vaccinated at the CDC and other organizations that tell everyone to get vaccinated. CDC and other leadership will say that the employees decisions are private and they cannot ask their status as a way of saying the actual number is unknown and avoiding the topic. It gets better. The American Medical Association (AMA) says 96% of 'practicing' physicians are vaccinated and one-half of the remaining 4% plan to get vaccinated. Thus, the AMA guarantees that 98% or more of the doctors in the United States are vaccinated (depending on what the weasel word practicing means). If you place 100 doctors in a room, 98 or 99 would be vaccinated. Do you believe that simply on face value? It is comical since the AMA will tout the statistic and then immediate follow up with 'get vaccinated' so you are supposed to believe nearly 100% of all doctors are vaccinated so you should get the shot, too. That is the egghead psychology. The sample size of the doctors in the poll is unknown. A large USA Today poll places the doctor and hospital participation in vaccinations in the 51% to 72% range with a couple of America's largest dozen or so hospitals reporting a 91% participation. US hospitals will not meet President Biden's goal of having 70% of adults vaccinated with at least one dose within the next 3 days. Common sense tells you that the AMA touting a near 100% doctor participation is likely incorrect or a biased offering. A better assessment and representation of US physician participation in taking the vaccine is 65% to 75%. The talking heads do not want Americans to hear this news since it may deter them from taking the shot. Are you afraid of the devil you see (COVID-19) or the devil you don't see (vaccines)? Everyone has to talk things over with their doctor to decide what is best for themselves and their family.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/29/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The Disney Dream cruise test voyage turns into a nightmare. The test cruise is cancelled for one month after four crew members test positive for COVID-19. The Mickey Mouse and Snow White costumes are fumigated and placed into the cabin closet until August.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 6/29/21: A hearing into the origin of COVID-19 is conducted by the GOP (Grand Ole Party; republicans) on Capitol Hill. Democrats did not want to participate. House democrat Leader Pelosi will not allow an investigation into the origin of coronavirus. Who, or what, is she protecting? Fauci and Collins have their fingers and toes crossed that everyone will forget about the origin of covid and how American funds were distributed to communist laboratories for gain of function research. The only way to understand the entire mess, and hold China accountable, is with an investigation. America, however, is lost. The two dirtbag political parties are corrupt to the core. The dirtbag democrat tribe refuses to conduct an investigation into the origin of COVID-19 while the dirtbag republican tribe refuses to conduct an investigation into the 1/6/21 Capitol Hill Riot. (The entire riot is chronicled in real-time, minute by minute, in Keystone's book 'President Trump's Final 80 Days' if you want to relive the riot experience as it unfolded.) The two US political parties are two sides of the same corrupt crony capitalism coin. Both political parties consider their tribal loyalty far more important and vital than doing what is good for the United States. Both investigations are needed if America has any chance of surviving over the next decade.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 6/29/21: Los Angeles County, California, USA, imposes new mask restrictions for all citizens that are indoors even if vaccinated. 1 in 4 new cases in the US, 26%, are the India B1617 variant (delta). The California daily new cases bump higher as mentioned above so the officials are proactive at nipping things in the bud but the general population will not be happy and many may not comply. People will keep exclaiming what point is the vaccine when you still have to wear a mask? Doctors now disagree on masks with the CDC guidelines saying masks are not necessary if vaccinated but Los Angeles goes in the opposite direction reimposing draconian mask-wearing measures. No wonder the public remains confused during the entire pandemic. Every day is conflicting messages. Lord Fauci decrees, "If you are not vaccinated, you are at considerable risk." People aren't listening anymore. They are getting on with their lives. CNN reports that 85 teens and adults test positive for coronavirus at Crossing Camp a few hours southwest of Chicago. Masking and other guidelines appear to be loosely followed. The camp closes and disinfection begins. The young folks infected are from three different states.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/30/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Today is the last day of the month of June, the last day of the second quarter (Q2; April, May, June) and the last day of the first-half of the year (H1 2021), which are important data points to the world's financial markets. Bangladesh daily new cases and deaths remain at record levels for the current parabolic wave 4. US manufacturers that employ the cheap overseas labor, such as Levi Strauss and others, are closing or reducing capacity at factories due to the outbreak. If you want a new pair of jeans buy them today since your size may not be available again until the end of the year. The garment industry is smacked hard by the outbreaks in Bangladesh and Vietnam two key countries that produce cheap goods. The Vietnamese will work all day for a hotdog and a Coke. Oh darn. Portugal reports 1,746 daily new cases the highest of the current wave 4 and most cases since February. Keystone's fears about the Portugal outbreak in late May and early June are sadly coming true in July. Portugal's 3-day MA trend line for daily new cases is now printing higher highs and higher lows verifying the ongoing uptrend. Adding 28 days to the current peak in daily cases in Portugal, as per the Keystone Model, yields a target date of 7/27/21 for the active cases curve to flatten and roll over (maximum strain on the hospitals). Portugal should alert all healthcare workers that they will be busy for the month of July and if possible, vacations may have to be delayed. A positive in this new outbreak misery going on around the world is that the deaths remain generally low. However, we know that hospitalizations increase a couple weeks after the infections accelerate and then deaths increase a couple weeks after the hospitalizations. The UK wave 4 outbreak continues but deaths also remain low like Portugal (so far). The UK reports 20.5K daily new cases now 2 consecutive days above 20 thousand. The UK daily cases chart has gone parabolic. Portugal's cases jump but the jury is out if the chart will go parabolic. This is important because the two nations are test cases for the India B1617 variant (delta). Other countries can learn a lot about handling the India variant from these two nations. Portugal says 90% of the new cases are the India variant while other nations in Europe say the India variant is testing at about 50% of the cases. Oh damn. Spain reports 7.1 daily new cases a huge spike higher the most since early May. Europe has a problem. The young men are running to the beaches to frolic with the pretty young ladies sporting colorful bikinis, so the virus spreads. Humans are humans. It is spring and there is love in the air. Other Europeans, that choose sports above love, attend wild raucous parties and football games (American soccer) cheering, yelling, eating, coughing, spitting and high-fiving to COVID-19's delight. Europe's summer is not going to be the bundle of joy expected.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/30/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The hermit kingdom of North Korea rarely releases information and case data for COVID-19 is non-existent. The borders are tightly controlled but an outbreak may be wreaking havoc in the hermit kingdom. Tin-pot Dictator Kim Jong-un, the filthy murderer, is publicly criticizing officials handling the pandemic calling the situation a "great crisis." Kim himself was likely ill with the virus and/or other health problems when he disappeared for weeks and now he appears thinner. North Korea says it has no coronavirus infections and will keep touting that stupid lie. The four North Korean officials involved in handling the pandemic will likely be taken out back and shot; that is the way it goes. After decades of the Kim family cancer ruling North Korea, perhaps the virus is the catalyst to change the Korean Peninsula. Indonesia reports 463 deaths yesterday only surpassed by 476 deaths back on 1/28/21. Indonesia keeps fighting now at the peak of the outbreak. Oh no. It happened. Russia reports 652 deaths the deadliest day of the pandemic.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/30/21, at 6:30 AM EST: The US is sadly only a hair away from 620K deaths. The US reports 11.4K daily new cases and 294 deaths so the sick sideways malaise continues. The moving averages are flatlining. America is in a sideways stasis period right now that will hopefully resolve to the downside. Nevada reports a spike in daily new cases to 625 cases rivaling the 635 cases a few days ago. Folks are partying in Los Vegas with coronavirus comingling among the naked bodies and empty booze bottles. Arkansas reports 479 daily new cases teasing the 485 cases a week ago. These are the most cases in Arkansas since late February and early March. Watch Nevada and Arkansas closely and of course Utah, Alabama, Louisiana and Missouri. Southern Missouri has the highest incidence of the India B1617 variant than anywhere in the United States. The vaccination rate is low in Missouri that is a republican-leaning state.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/30/21, at 7:30 AM EST: Dr Fauci appears on the Morning Joe Show on MSNBC media of course a liberal-leaning outlet. MSNBC, CNN, and the broadcast channels ABC, CBS and NBC, and NPR and PBS, also the New York Times and Washington Post (Bezos), all lean democrat and liberal so you will only see Fauci on these outlets. None of these so-called journalism outlets will ask Fauci about the origin of coronavirus or the funding for gain of function research and nothing changes this morning. Conversely, Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart and American AM talk radio tout the republican talking points and denigrate Lord Fauci especially concerning the ongoing Wuhan Lab leak scandal. Fauci talks about masking trying to make sense of the CDC saying no masks if vaccinated but Los Angeles, California, now saying mask-up even if vaccinated. Fauci says the folks in California are risk-averse and want to "go the extra mile" and wear a mask, so that is fine. People hear this stuff and do not pay attention anymore. The ongoing 'mask confusion', a wordsmith combination of 'mass confusion' and 'masks', harms the credibility of the medical community. Do not expect people to follow guidelines when the folks at the top disagree. One of the main problems during the pandemic is that no in is in charge but everyone is in charge. It is a recipe for disaster as has played out. Fauci has a new tag line in reference to people not yet vaccinated. He rhetorically asks, "What's the problem?" Unvaccinated people ponder why it is labeled a problem if you do not want vaccinated? The United States splits into the land of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. The medical folks are discussing mixing the vaccines to increase efficacy against variants. A clinical study is ongoing testing if an mRNA booster shot improves efficacy for those that took the J&J vaccine. That is a kick in the pants to Johnny John. It is telling people that the 1-shot and done Johnson and Johnson vaccine is not that but instead may be a shot and then a booster shot of mRNA in a few weeks. The medical people want that mRNA serum in everyone's bodies.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/30/21, at 9:00 AM EST: US Surgeon General Murthy appears on CNN sorting out the mask confusion. The WHO and Los Angeles County, California, are telling people to use a mask indoors even if vaccinated but the CDC guidelines are that you do not need a mask if vaccinated. Murthy takes his turn beating the fear-mongering drum proclaiming, "If you are not vaccinated, you are in trouble." The medical talking heads are telling Americans that unvaccinated children under 12 years old and teens not vaccinated, should wear masks.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/30/21: German pharmaceutical company CureVac announces disappointing trial results with its vaccine only 48% effective. CVAC stock nosedives -11% on the news. The filthy CCP celebrates the 100-year anniversary of its murderous government now led by Dictator Xi who dons a Mao communist monkey suit as he speaks. The dirtbag dictator says no one should challenge China's "unstoppable momentum." Xi says China wants "complete reunification" (which means takeover) of Taiwan. He says the 1.4 billion Chinese are a steel wall. If there is a food shortage, it will be a paper wall. The Chinese dynasties fell over the centuries due to food inflation leading into food shortages then riots, violence, and overthrowing the ruler. The thing that keeps murderer Xi up at night is worrying about feeding 1.4 billion people each day. China murdered 4 million people in the world over the last 18 months from COVID-19 that likely escaped from the Wuhan Laboratories. Investigations will provide the answers but China continues to stonewall and refuse to cooperate. The communists do not want to be held liable for trillions in reparations they will likely need to repay the world.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/1/21, at 2:00 AM EST: Thailand crosses above the 2K deaths grim milestone. 53 die in Thailand from the China Flu yesterday the deadliest day ever. Phuket, Thailand, opens for business trying to salvage the tourist industry which provides 95% of its income. Travelers are only welcome from low-risk nations such as the USA, Australia and New Zealand, and must remain in the Phuket area. Right now, a planeload of single, silver-haired white guys, Americans, wealthy, 50 years and older, are looking forward to fun and frolic in Phuket. Coronavirus, or a venereal disease, are offered as parting gifts. The Indonesia government is proving its incompetence in handling the pandemic as daily cases are at nearly 22K the highest ever and deaths remain at record levels. Indonesia hospital beds are at capacity. Indonesia does not want to impose strict lockdown measures so the pandemic should continue accelerating. The government is floundering as it backflips and imposes new restrictions on the Java and Bali areas. Indonesia is in crisis management with a pandemic spinning out of control. Unfortunately, daily new cases are rising in Malaysia again. The pandemic is worsening around the world. Bangladesh reports 8.8K daily new cases the highest ever and deaths remain elevated. South Africa reports 19.5K daily new cases the highest of the current wave 3 and deaths spike to 383 the deadliest day for the current outbreak.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/1/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The EU and Schengen member nations (countries that agree to trade openly with one another without restrictions and travel freely across each others borders without passports) officially begins the COVID-19 vaccination certificate program for traveling. Europe believes travel among nations will be simplified with a document that verifies either a vaccination passport, recovery certificate or negative covid test results. The world separates into the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Russia reports 669 deaths the deadliest day ever taking over from the prior day's deadliest day ever. The UK is screwed reporting over 26K daily new cases the most of the current wave 4 and not seen since late January. UK deaths remain in check but give it a couple weeks. Conditions are deteriorating quickly in England with the daily cases going parabolic. In mid-May, the UK looked okay, but 6 weeks later, it is in a state of disarray. Darn. The coronavirus news is worsening. Portugal reports 2.4K daily new cases the most of the current wave 4 and not seen since mid-February. Six Portuguese die of covid yesterday so the death numbers remain tiny but give it a couple weeks. Oh my. Spain reports 9.2 daily new cases the chart is spiking vertical (parabolic; exponential). The concern was that the spread in Portugal would impact Spain but it may be the other way around. 46 Spaniards die yesterday which is elevated compared to recent days. The jump in Spain's daily new cases is significant. Spain will likely look extremely ugly next week. Healthcare workers should be told to delay their vacations. Italy, France and Germany are hanging in there not showing a significant rise in cases as yet but the behavior in Portugal and Spain should seriously worry these nations.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/1/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 14.2K daily new cases and the direction remains flat as a newlywed's soufflé. 249 Americans die yesterday. The 7-day MA for US deaths continues lower. Oh no. Missouri reports over 1.3K daily new cases yesterday the highest since early February. Missouri, known as the 'show-me' state and the 'gateway to the west', is showing America that it is infected with coronavirus and is the gateway to the India B1617 variant outbreak. Damn. This is not good. Utah reports 574 daily new cases the highest since April with a new wave underway. Nevada cases remain elevated. Oh no. Arkansas reports 686 daily new cases the highest since February and a new wave is underway. Mississippi's cases are bumping higher. Alabama and Louisiana must be monitored. These are the troubled US states. Michigan was the epicenter state for the UK B117 variant (alpha) in the United States. Missouri, Utah, Nevada and Arkansas are the four poster children for the India B1617 variant (delta) right now in real-time. It is a sad sight. Americans are going to become downtrodden once they realize the virus is spreading again. Interestingly, the spread from Michigan with the UK B117 impacted surrounding states such as Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but very briefly, only a week or two, and those cases subsided again and the main infection stayed in Michigan. The hope now is that the cases in the four worst states above will subside quickly but perhaps they turn into four Michigan epicenters? Sadly, the charts are hinting at parabolic moves higher.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/1/21, at 3:30 AM EST: One-half of the year is over. July begins. The official approval of the mRNA vaccines has not been received as yet this week so President Biden will miss the goal of vaccinating 70% of the US adult population by Independence Day this Sunday. Biden will also miss the goal of fully-vaccinating 160 million Americans by Sunday. The J&J vaccine pause that occurred when the blood clot issue was raised hurt the vaccination program. Biden's goals looked like an easy layup (standing under the basketball hoop easily tossing the ball through the hoop) but the vaccination rate fell off a cliff harpooning the Whitehouse agenda. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows 66.5% of Americans vaccinated with at least one dose (Biden's goal was 70% but as the old saying goes, 'he is close but no cigar') and 155 million fully vaccinated (5 million short of Biden's goal so, as the old saying goes, 'he is very close but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades'). They are noble goals for the country and should be achieved this month so President Biden can brag about achieving the targets in 2 or 3 weeks. The current 7-day average US vaccination rate falls lower and lower to 582K shots per day. If the India B1617 outbreaks continue in the US, however, no one will be celebrating or paying attention to the president's goals this month. Instead, Americans will be screaming bloody murder as they watch the case counts rise and the fear is pumped through their veins by cable news outlets. Backlash may occur against unvaccinated folks that will likely become blamed for everything that goes wrong in the pandemic here forward including the pending new US waves that are starting to ripple across the covid lake.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/1/21, at 10:00 AM EST: The Washington Post says new COVID-19 cases in the European region increased for the first time since late May. WaPo says the infections are rising due to increased social contact, summer travel and the more contagious India variant. In Brazil, President Bolsonaro, perhaps the world leader that has mishandled the pandemic more than any other, fires a senior health official due to a graft scheme. Bolsonaro can hear the protestors in the streets are calling for his head, so, when you are in charge, you fire underlings and blame them for mishandling the pandemic. Indonesia is implementing further measures to try and stop the coronavirus outbreak. Japan is keeping its daily cases under control so the Olympics, that begin this month, should proceed successfully. Japan must stay vigilant since lots of people will be arriving at the island nation this month.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/1/21: The WHO says the India B1617 variant is in 96 countries which is about one-half the nations on earth. The Whitehouse is sending vaccination teams into areas experiencing outbreaks of the India B1617 variant (delta). The targeted response concept is a bright idea and a good move forward. Perhaps they can immediately concentrate on Utah, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi. President Biden is handling the pandemic far better than former President Trump. The coronavirus pandemic was King Donnie's Waterloo. Trump did not have the business skills to properly handle the once in a century pandemic so it cost him the election. Seniors and women, that gave Trump a chance in the 2016 election, lost confidence in the showman in 2020.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/1/21: J&J issues a news release stating their vaccine is effective against the B1617 variant (delta). The statement is based on two small studies providing limited data. It is obvious that Johnson & Johnson is concerned about the news that a clinical study is ongoing that mixes the vaccines and will provide information on using an mRNA as a booster shot to supplement the Johnny John shot. The company says, "There was a lot of misinformation that was spreading." Actually, some people that received the J&J shot are complaining that there has been a lack of information and they feel short-changed; they were told to take the shot available last year but the J&J vaccine does not protect as well as the mRNA vaccines which is a different type of vaccine. Both vaccine types are effective in combatting coronavirus and prevent serious illness and death. Further evidence that the J&J news release is likely a calming-the-public statement, the company says those that received the shot likely do not need a booster (wait a month or two and they will probably change their minds). The ongoing study investigating the use of a mRNA shot to serve as a booster for the J&J vaccine is in the public domain and it is true. The medical community cannot label news as 'misinformation' because they are worried that people will avoid the J&J shot. Society and humans are experiencing great difficulty in telling the truth nowadays. The conventional J&J vaccine is effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths just like the new mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) although the mRNA shots appear more effective against COVID-19, at this time. The need for booster shots are being assess for all vaccines and it is likely that people will need a booster at some point in the months ahead. Telling the truth is not so hard. Big pharma, lying in bed with the Whitehouse and US government, are concerned that if people think they will need a booster after they receive the initial shot/s, they will avoid getting vaccinated. It is better to trust people and tell them the truth; you will find that a booster shot is likely not a major factor in their vaccination decision. The problem from the start of the pandemic is the misinformation and missteps by the politicians and medical people in charge since it breeds mistrust. Facebook is encouraging users to fink on each other and report friends if you think they are becoming extremists or reporting misinformation about coronavirus (who judges what is misinformation?). Eggheads are asking people why they do not want vaccinated and they claim vaccine hesitancy occurs from misinformation they read on Facebook. The American society becomes sicker day. Do you think pitting American against America is helpful? Are you stupid? Perhaps people do not want vaccinated simply because they do not want vaccinated. Some people do not fear death especially if you have been close to death a few times. If the India variant clusters around the world roll over and diminish, which is the hope, it may be the last major breath of COVID-19. This would be in line with other past viruses that have ran their course over about an 18-month period.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 3:00 AM EST: More bad news out of Portugal that reports 2.4K daily new cases another higher high with the chart starting to go parabolic. Spain is in drastic trouble with daily new cases leaping even higher than yesterday to 12.3K cases. In watching the data for the last 1-1/2 years, very few outbreaks have gone literally straight vertical as Spain is now. Clearly, the football games are leading to a large amount of infections. Spain announced the relaxation of covid guidelines at football (soccer) stadiums on 5/14/21 so young folks were spreading germs during the June games and now many are sick and the cases are rising exponentially as July begins. Coronavirus does not care about football or the travel industry. Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya is clueless opining about increasing the tourism and travel activity. Hey idiot, look at the covid charts. Spain is embracing travelers with coronavirus hugs. France needs to protect its southern border from the virus migration northward. France reports 2.7K daily new cases the most in a couple weeks. Europeans may want to think twice about their vacation plans this summer. Germany reports 717K daily new cases yesterday and 841K the day before the highest in a couple weeks. The Netherlands daily new cases jump to 825 cases. The Dutch are partiers. Belgium daily cases are levitating. Ireland crosses the 5K total deaths grim milestone. Conditions in Europe are going downhill due to the India variant but hopefully the outbreaks may be fleeting.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Malaysia daily cases pop to 7K starting a new wave. Malaysia is no longer recovering. It is surrounded by other Southeast Asia nations that are infected with COVID-19 so the recovery did not have a chance. Terrible and tragic news from Indonesia that is the new India. Indonesia reports 25K daily new cases each day is a further spike higher when you think the cases must surely flatten out. This was the behavior in India. Spain is also experiencing a rocket launch vertical spike in daily new cases. Indonesia reports 504 deaths yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. The virus is spreading like wildfire across the Southeast Asia island nations. Singapore is trying to keep its cases low, and succeeding, but, like Malaysia, has a sea of disease around it. Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and Bangladesh are a mess reporting record daily new cases. 143 die in Bangladesh the deadliest day ever. The virus is clearly moving west to east in Southeast Asia. Northern Australia would be wise to remain extremely vigilant.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 5:00 AM EST: South Africa daily new cases pop to 22K another new high for the current wave 3. Whatever measures South Africa is doing to combat covid, they are not working. Wave 3 is developing into a worse outbreak than wave 2. Namibia daily cases are elevated but backing off the last few days which is positive news. The southern Africa outbreak started with Angola and Namibia and then migrated into South Africa and Botswana interestingly moving west to east. In Europe, the outbreaks also tend to move west to east. Why would COVID-19 preferentially want to move west to east as it spreads? It may be simply due to a limited amount of data that happened to move in a similar way, or, there may be other planetary or environmental factors involved. Cases spike in Zimbabwe, as well as deaths. The virus is moving up the eastern side of Africa. Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia must all stay on guard because COVID-19 will likely knock on their doors again over the coming month. It would be great if COVAX could push for some extra vaccinations in these nations, also Uganda, to help nip coronavirus in the bud as it moves northward from southern Africa. The island nation of Madagascar is fine right now but would be wise to stay vigilant for the virus on its western border.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 5:30 AM EST: Bolivia and Paraguay continue recovering. It is a shame that the major outbreak in central South America went largely unnoticed. There was and is great suffering there including Chile, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. In northern South America, Colombia remains a disaster zone. Colombia daily new cases and deaths subside the last few days so there is hope that an end to the 4 months of covid misery is near. Cases continue rising or remain elevated in Central America as the virus spreads north. Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala continue battling covid. Guatemala is getting smacked hard with daily cases at record highs. Damn. Mexico is definitely in a new wave 3 with daily new cases ramping higher each day. The virus spreads north from Colombia to Central America to Mexico.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 5:45 AM EST: Russia reports the highest daily new cases for the current wave 3 and the most daily deaths ever. Where's Putin? Bueller? Putin? The UK sadly reports 28K daily new cases. Remember when moving up through 20K cases was a big deal and now the UK will blow through 30K only 3 or 4 days later? The Brit's want to reopen the economy and remove the covid guidelines on 7/19/21 only 17 days away, call it 2 weeks. As they say in the States, 'good luck wit dat'. UK hospitals will likely be overrun by mid-month. Where's Boris Johnson? Bueller? Boris?
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 17K daily new cases for each of the last 2 days levels not seen in about 3 weeks. The numbers are rising at a faster pace which is obviously not good. The 3-day MA trend line for US daily new cases is printing higher highs and higher lows verifying an ongoing uptrend. The most concerning states right now are Utah, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas and Kansas. The cases in Arkansas are worrisome and require close watching over the next couple days. America has punched a major dent in herd immunity due to the vaccinations and perhaps as many as 100 million people that have had coronavirus so the jury is out if the new outbreaks will have any bite. With the Whitehouse's targeted approach to increase vaccinations in these areas, conditions may improve as the month plays out. There is every reason to believe that regional clusters can be controlled from here on out in the United States.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/2/21, at 6:30 AM EST: The mask talk becomes more confusing by the day. Some officials, including the WHO, tell people to wear a mask even if vaccinated while the CDC says you do not need a mask if vaccinated. Dr Leana Wen says, "If unvaccinated, you are at high risk to contract the Delta variant (India B1617)." The variant is dominating the cases in Missouri and Utah. If fully vaccinated, and around others that are fully vaccinated, everyone should consider that to be safe and masks are not needed. If unvaccinated, and around unvaccinated people, this is not safe and masks are needed. If fully vaccinated, and around unvaccinated people, there is risk so masks should be considered. If around children or immuno-compromised folks, consider wearing a mask. Many common people cannot follow or understand such complexities. Their eyes glaze over. Young folks are accounting for a larger portion of illnesses. Over 95% of the hospitalized patients are not vaccinated but this should not be a surprising statistic. The pundits repeat this number to encourage people to get vaccinated (the jabs are doing their job). The mask controversy deepens after a study is released in the Journal of American Medicine Association (JAMA). In the Pediatric section of the journal, a study has measured carbon dioxide levels (CO2) in the area between the mask and the mouth in 6 to 17-year old children and teens; 20 girls and 25 boys. The 'Experimental Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Content in Inhaled Air With or Without Face Masks in Healthy Children' randomized clinical trial found that increased CO2 levels exist in exhaled and inhaled air. It sounds like a no-brainer but it is always great to have science verify common sense. Over the last year, pundits told people that carbon dioxide was not a problem with masks. Perhaps they were talking out of their *ss since there were only very limited studies available. The television talking heads told people, and children, to wear masks since "they cannot hurt" and "there is no harm in wearing a mask." As it turns out, there may be hurt and harm occurring. The study suggests that children should not be forced to wear masks. Obviously, a new Pandora's Box is opened and this study is likely going to receive a lot of discussion, as it should. Parents need to discuss with their doctors the best approach to their children wearing masks. Perhaps an approach of keeping masks off kids, but at the same time making sure they are socially distanced in certain settings, will work most of the time. The headaches will begin as the new school year starts within the next 2 months. It is important for a young child's social, psychological, mental and emotional development to learn from facial expressions that are now hidden by masks.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 7/2/21: 48 million Americans are traveling this weekend which may be a record before it is done. US travel is up 40% compared to a year ago. The AAA agency that monitors the industry says the higher cost of gasoline at the pump will not deter travelers. Most of America is paying over $3 per gallon for gasoline and California is paying well over $4 per gallon the highest prices in seven years. The world pays more for gasoline so there will be no sympathy from them but Americans like their cheap gas. When gasoline prices move higher, retail spending decreases since more dollars are going into the fuel tank.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/3/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The daily new cases chart for the world is disappointing. After peaking above 900K cases per day in April, in large part due to the pandemic disaster in India, the case count had fallen off to almost 300K daily new cases per day 2 weeks ago heading in a groovy direction. Alas, the downtrend stops. The world reports 438K daily new cases yesterday the highest in a month. Unfortunately, the 7-day MA, which is a moving average trend line that smooths out the daily data points, is heading higher verifying the uptrend now in place as well as wave 5 for the planet. China has screwed every other country on earth with the Wuhan Virus. Wave 5 for the world begins. On the positive side, the world's daily deaths are hanging on to the downtrend. Thus, even though the infections are rising again on the earth and wave 5 begins, the increased positive test cases are not creating an increase in deaths; yet. The world's 7-day MA for daily COVID-19 deaths continues lower. Keep your fingers crossed.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/3/21, at 4:30 AM EST: India crosses the 401K deaths grim milestone but continues recovering from the horrendous outbreak that peaked on 5/23/21 (mid to late May). Brazil crosses the 522K deaths tragic milestone. Russia's wave 3 goes parabolic and is spinning out of control while murderer Putin is hiding in the bathroom sitting on a gold toilet seat. Russia reports 679 deaths yesterday another record and four days in a row of the deadliest days ever. The highest infection rates are in Moscow and St Petersburg. The Sputnik V vaccine is obviously less effective against the India B1617 variant (delta) than other vaccines. The Kremlin is doing everything possible to avoid a lockdown telling citizens to get vaccinated. Only 15% of Ruskies are vaccinated. That is a hard sell telling folks to get vaccinated with a shot that does not do a good job in combatting the India variant. Indonesia goes into a strict lockdown as the virus spins out of control and the troubled nation crosses the 60K deaths grim milestone. Hospitals say they are not prepared for the onslaught of sick covid patients. Indonesian hospitals are operating well above 90% capacity with the need for beds increasing daily. Bangladesh goes into a strict lockdown as cases and deaths remain at record levels. Like all other nations, citizens complain that they have to make a living and cannot remain at home with little to eat. Thailand daily new cases continue higher as Phuket opens for travelers. 61 die in Thailand yesterday the deadliest day ever. Come to Thailand all you horny American men for coronavirus, or a venereal disease, or both. South Korea, last year a shining example on how to properly handle the pandemic, is now a covid clown show with the government failing miserably in recent months to control the virus. Cases have been in a flat sideways patterns after the major wave in January passed but unfortunately the chart is resolving to the upside. South Korea reports 826 daily new cases the highest since early January six months ago. Not good. South Korea has a great testing, tracking and tracing program but as cases rise, the teams performing the work become too thin and the system breaks down. South Korea is going to be worried big time if cases climb above 1K per day.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/3/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The USA is focused on the UK and Portugal outbreaks to gauge the danger of the India variant. The UK reports 27K daily new cases below the 28K cases the prior day. Any pullback is great news. Unfortunately, 27 Brit's die yesterday from China Flu matching the 6/22/21 high and deaths not seen since April and May. Pundits lobbying for the removal of the UK covid guidelines and reopening of the economy have been touting the lack of rising deaths during this ongoing wave 4 outbreak. They may not be touting that line going forward. PM Johnson wants to relax guidelines in the UK in 2 weeks but instead the UK hospitals may be overwhelmed with patients. The Keystone Model now forecasts that the UK active cases chart will not flatten and roll over until the end of the month. Thus, the UK healthcare workers will become more busy over the next couple weeks or so and not see the caseload diminish until the end of the month. A tall, thin British undertaker smiles as his bony fingers remove a black top hat exposing a gaunt face. Workers are carrying a new shipment of empty caskets into the funeral home's basement. Portugal reports 2.4K daily new cases for 3 straight days. She is deciding on which way to break, hopefully down, but realistically it is likely up. Portugal daily deaths remain below 10 per day since April and that is a risk that any country's population could accept. Spain reports 12.6K daily new cases overtaking the prior day's 12.3K cases. The vertical spike in cases continues in Spain. Each time the football was kicked by a player during the Euro games in Spain in June, a few dozen Spaniards became sick with COVID-19. Spain deaths are elevated pushing above the 19 per day average. The UK's parabolic wave 4 in daily new cases is repeating the same pattern as prior waves. Sadly, Portugal will likely follow suit but we will know for sure next week. Spain's vertical spike in cases is already a parabolic jump. The Netherlands reports 941 daily new cases the most since mid-June with a new wave likely beginning. The European continent is screwed as the India variant crawls ashore in several locations. The variant is doing damage in the UK and Europe but not yet in the States. The glaring difference between the US and Europe is the vaccination manufacturers. The world's data over the next month will expose which vaccines are effective at handling the India variant (delta) and which are not. South Africa reports 24K daily new cases the highest ever. South Africa is in the worst shape of the entire pandemic. Like many other nations, they let their guard down and are now getting smacked in the teeth.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/3/21, at 5:30 AM EST: The US reports 18.4K daily new cases. The party is over before it begins folks. Several states are reporting that over 50% of the new positive cases are the India B1617 variant (delta). America is starting a new wave 5. This is terrible news as Americans run to the local stores to buy charcoal briquettes, lighter fluid and lots of meat for the holiday barbecue. The 3 and 7-day MA's trend higher verifying the sad uptrend in daily new cases. It is exhausting news after 18 months of coronavirus torture is already endured. Checking the troubled states, Utah reports 431 daily new cases pulling back for the third day. Maybe there is not as much bite to the Delta variant as touted? Maybe the US vaccinations (Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and J&J) are better at handling B1617 than others? Nevada reports the same behavior. Missouri reports 1.2K daily new cases off the 1.3K cases top the prior day. The Kansas cases pull back for a day. The Friday data is typically the highest of the week so the US cases at the elevated 18.4K level is not a surprise but the backing-off of the cases in these troubled states is encouraging data. Arkansas also backs-off in daily new cases albeit one day. America begins wave 5 but hopefully it will be a pig in a poke (no big deal; the cases will roll back over). The daily cases should remain low through the holiday weekend. The jury is out for America but the daily case data for next week will dictate if the US celebrates a joyous summer, or not. Pennsylvania reports 381 daily new cases the most since mid-June. Pennsylvania removed the mask mandate last Monday, 6/28/21, and folks were already tossing masks into garbage cans last weekend. Fast forward a week and perhaps there will be a rise in cases in the Keystone State. Maybe the currently-troubled states such as Utah, Nevada, Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas will improve but other states, such as Pennsylvania, Wyoming or Iowa may fall into the coronavirus soup, thrashing about, trying to avoid the small triangle-shaped delta noodles. Los Angeles, California, remains an infected coronavirus nest and important test case to note the spread of the India B1617 variant (delta). California reports 2K daily new cases yesterday the highest since early May. This is not good. California has a big impact on the US as a whole so cases rising in La La Land and other parts of the Golden State will guarantee the upward path of the new wave 5 in America.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/3/21, at 9:00 AM EST: The US National and State Parks and local community parks are packed to the gills. Some parks are closing off the number of cars since the roads and parking lots cannot handle the traffic. Looking at the long lines at airports and traffic on the roads, the happiest folks are likely the ones that stayed at home. Tempers flare on hot summer days. Young folks are partying this weekend, feeling invincible, raising and toasting red Solo cups filled with beer, becoming sh*t-faced, uncaring that coronavirus is lurking nearby. CDC Director Walensky proclaims that the India variant is "hypertransmissible" developing more dramatic words by the day to push people to get vaccinated. Dr Schaffner, an infectious disease professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, decrees, "Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories. The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply." Dr Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, stresses the need for vaccinations telling young people, "If you're vaccinated, you're not going to be a variant factory." Now the great unwashed, unclean, unvaccinated huddled masses are sick variant factories. None of this name-calling and hyperbole is helpful. Young people laugh as they bite a hotdog and take a swig of beer invoking the famous line from the Spaceballs movie years ago, "May the Schwartz be with you."
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 7/3/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Biden continues the "America Back Together" tour flying to Michigan to tout the handling of the pandemic and encourage more vaccinations. Michigan should not be touted for pandemic leadership. All states have fallen flat on their faces but in fairness, it is a once in a century pandemic. The Coronavirus Chronology identified the UK B117 variant (alpha) outbreak in Michigan a month before Governor Whitmore realized what was going on (with numerous messages directed at Whitmore and other Michigan politicians and cities). The only thing these dolt leaders had to do is pick up a coronavirus chart and look at it. The epidemiology field sorely lacks expertise in analyzing charts. Scientists and doctors lack basic chart forecasting skills. Michigan was a disaster with the B117 outbreak and it spread to neighboring states, thankfully briefly, as well as infecting Ontario. Perhaps Biden can ask the Canucks to the north how they feel about the B117 outbreak that brought Ontario to its knees. Congratulations are not in order for Michigan but Whitmore can receive credit for riding the wave to completion. Like other states and nations, Michigan was in crisis management during the B117 outbreak due to their lack of proactive management (leadership, planning, forecasting, social knowledge) ahead of the disaster. It is the human condition in 2021.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/4/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Happy Independence Day to all Americans. The US reports 8K daily cases yesterday a sub 10K number which is great but subdued numbers are expected for Saturday, Sunday and Monday due to the holiday weekend. The US data for Tuesday through Friday in the week ahead will likely tell the story for America this summer. The data over the next 2 weeks will definitely forecast whether the summer will be bright joyous sunshine or an ugly covid storm with dark delta-shaped clouds looming overhead. 96 Americans die yesterday from COVID-19 a sub 100 number. California's data is not yet released so perhaps Governor Newsom is in a backroom frantically erasing, rewriting and editing numbers. Newsom faces a tough recall election in September where California decides if they want him to remain as governor (due to his subpar performance in handling the pandemic, like most every other governor). Nevada deaths are crossing the 5.7K grim milestone and cases are elevated in recent days. Las Vegas is in a marketing blitz encouraging folks to come to Sin City for fun and frolic. It is a successful campaign but some folks are receiving coronavirus as a parting gift. Missouri reports only a couple hundred daily cases a welcome sight but the weekend data may be misleading. Nonetheless, it will be great news if the daily new cases that are increasing in several states roll over in the week ahead and the new wave 5 in the US dies. Florida reports over 2.8K daily new cases for both Friday and Saturday. Not good. Florida reports the highest case counts since mid-May. Texas crosses the 3 million total coronavirus cases tragic milestone. New York crosses the 54K deaths grim milestone. Michigan crosses the 21K deaths milestone. Americans are enjoying the holiday and forgetting about the pandemic for a couple days. The grim realities will likely resurface after the grill goes cold and Fido eats the last hotdog.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/4/21, at 4:30 AM EST: The world is coming up on the tragic 4 million worldwide deaths milestone. The China Flu is killing over 4 million human beings. The Wuhan Lab leak is the most likely origin of coronavirus and investigations need to confirm this and determine if it was an accidental or experimental release. Either way, China owes every other country in the world reparations. The CCP will have to pay up or the globe steps toward World War III. There are interesting months and years ahead. The Wuhan Lab stink around Dr Fauci becomes more odorous. There are many redactions in the Fauci emails that were released about a month ago but investigators are linking comments that exhibit a concerted attempt to downplay the Wuhan Lab leak theory in May 2020. After Fauci said the lab leak theory is unlikely and the virus is from a natural origin in May of last year, Columbia professor Walter Ian Lipkin emailed Fauci; "We deeply appreciate your efforts in steering and messaging." Lipkin has close ties with the Chinese government and CCP officials so the developments are starting to smell. Investigations are needed to get to the bottom of the Wuhan Lab leak and the US funding that was funneled to the secretive communist labs and how that American taxpayer money was used for gain of function research. The palace intrigue around the Wuhan Laboratories expands daily as a new report indicates Google (Alphabet) was funding research at the communist labs. EcoHealth Alliance's name keeps coming up in relation to funding the Wuhan Labs. Google's charitable money goes to EcoHealth that then funds the virus research in China. The reason this story is important is because Google has been busy censoring writers, including this blog and Keystone's writing of the Coronavirus Chronology, but has a conflict of interest as it has skin in the game providing monies, through EcoHealth, to the communist labs. Of course, Google would have a vested interest in suppressing any information on the Wuhan Lab leak theory if their money is funding the lab. Duh. Google manipulates the media as evidenced by actively removing and censoring messages and articles they do not like, shadow banning and adjusting algorithms to redirect traffic. This nefarious behavior was directed at Keystone and the Coronavirus Chronology as information was presented on the Wuhan Lab leak. The chronology has suggested that the virus came from the Wuhan Laboratories since the start of the pandemic 1-1/2 years ago; it is only common sense. This ongoing suggestion obviously ruffles some feathers and opens the Coronavirus Chronology to attack by powerful entities but it will not stop the writing. You cannot get anymore middle of the road than Keystone; he points out the daily corruption of both political parties. There is a lot to discover in the weeks and months ahead. Drip, drip, drip, the Wuhan Lab leak story keeps leaking. For Fauci, and perhaps Collins, and the NIH, it must feel like Chinese water torture on their foreheads. More heat will be placed on Google's back especially by politicians that want to regulate big technology companies such as Google (Alphabet), Facebook, Apple, Twitter and Amazon. Crony capitalism is in its last throes. It will be interesting to see where the United States lands a decade or two from now, after the social upheaval and unrest and likely class war play out.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/4/21, at 5:00 AM EST: France reports over 3K daily new cases so the nation is starting a potential new wave that can be verified in the week ahead. Netherlands is over 1.1K daily new cases not seen since early June. Europeans may want to rethink their summer plans. Portugal reports 2.6K daily new cases the highest of the current wave 4. Spain's numbers from yesterday are not yet available; the politicians are likely adjusting the numbers in a back room. The UK reports 25K daily new cases below the prior day's 27K cases below the prior day's 28K so the direction is encouraging and provides hope but the magnitude of the numbers remain high. South Africa is spinning out of control reporting 26.5K daily new cases another record high for the pandemic. Southeast Asia remains a covid hot zone. Indonesia reports 28K daily new cases the highest ever and the deaths are at record levels. Pandemic-wise, Indonesia is the new India. Indonesia and Malaysia would be wise to form a closer partnership for handling future pandemics. Malaysia was on the mend but the breakout in Indonesia reinfected Malaysia with rising case numbers again. Cambodia reports record cases in recent days with 36 deaths yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Vietnam reports 922 cases the highest of the pandemic. Colombia's active cases curve finally begins to roll over and will hopefully form the bell-shape to signal better times ahead. Northern South America and Central America is a covid hot zone since the end of March. Guatemala continues reporting record daily cases and 69 people die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Panama daily cases continue rising. Mexico daily cases are at 6.1K and rising. US border control agents at the southern border with Mexico report that the migrants are arriving with increased rates of coronavirus which makes sense as the virus has migrated from Colombia and Venezuela up though Central America, into Mexico, and now northward across the US southern border.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/4/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) reports that 85% of Americans 65 and older have been vaccinated; a key reason for the drop in US cases after the January peak to present. 79% of college-educated Americans, 4 out of 5, have been vaccinated. Looking at the political breakdown, 86% of democrats have been vaccinated, 61% of independents and 52% of republicans. The liberals love to follow rules and do not question authority so they enthusiastically kneel in front of the nurse and receive their jabs. Almost 9 out of every 10 democrats are vaccinated the most vaccinated group out of all categories. A king or dictator would love to have these folks as loyal subjects. Independents are over the 50% mark with vaccinations the older folks likely more worried about getting deathly sick from COVID-19 so they step up for the shot. The republicans bring up the rear in vaccine participation race like the kid in the back of the physical education class that half-heartedly participates in the warm-up calisthenics. Many Trump supporters are refusing the vaccination even though King Donnie himself, and his wife Melania, and son Barron, were vaccinated back in January, in secret. Trump announced that he had been vaccinated a few weeks later acting like it was no big deal. Of course Trump could perform PSA's (public service announcements) telling people to get vaccinated, especially his loyal fans, but he does not want to alienate this loyal base for fear of losing their votes, so he does not tell people to get vaccinated. Politics is a dirty business. Same with about 100 republicans in Congress that refuse to disclose their vaccination status (even though the vast majority are vaccinated). These politicians do not want to anger the far right vote that is leaning towards not getting vaccinated. Next to republicans, the 18 to 29 year old age group is the least vaccinated at only 55%. The Whitehouse and President Biden are directing people on the ground to focus on this age group and enlist the help of parents. Some of the young folks would probably get vaccinated but they are too busy drinking beerski's from red Solo cups, smoking bong hits (marijuana) and grooving to the techno-beat of the music. Paraphrasing Billy Shakespeare, everyone should remember what it is like to be young when 'the world is your oyster'. The young folks are the least vaccinated so it makes sense they are getting sick in a greater proportion than other age groups. 29% of Americans say it is unlikely they will get the vaccine for many different reasons. 20% of this 29% say they will never take the vaccine; 1 in 5 Americans. Reasons cited for the vaccine hesitancy and skepticism include that the vaccine is too new, vaccines have side effects, some people simply do not want it, some folks do not trust the government and others do not think they need the vaccine since they are in good health, or young, or had covid or think they had covid. It is tough to break through that fortress of vaccine hesitancy but time will have a way of breaking down some of those walls. 15 million Americans miss their second mRNA vaccination shot. If 156 million Americans are fully vaccinated, this is a 10% non-return rate. Actually, this percentage is directly in line with what would be expected from past virus and vaccine data. It is disappointing because a number far lower than 10% is desired but at least the country can take solace in the fact that the vaccine return rate is not worse than past virus outbreaks. If you recall, the vaccine non-return rate was in the 6% to 8% range about 6 months ago so it has worsened a bit as news of blood clots, myocarditis and side effects may have scared some folks. The medical talking heads are stressing the need for the second mRNA shot to boost the effectiveness against the India variant. The CDC is investigating the death of a Michigan teen that occurred after receiving the Pfizer shot.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/4/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Dr Fauci appears on the Meet the Press political show on NBC, a liberal network, always taking an opportunity to create more mass mask confusion. Lord Fauci, as the republicans call him, says people that are vaccinated but living in low vaccination areas, such as the American South or out West, should consider wearing a mask. These are the areas that are being targeted for vaccinations so it is probably not a good selling point for the Fauch to appear on television telling people to get the shot but then keep wearing a mask. A major problem in handling the pandemic is the messaging and the desire to provide universal guidelines. It is obvious, especially with case counts dramatically off the peak January top, that the 'US messaging should be based on counties and not states'. In future pandemics, the entire messaging should be county-specific since one side of a state may be experiencing an outbreak while nothing is occurring on the other side of the state. The US was hurt by shutting the entire country down as the pandemic started when a county specific approach would have been much smarter. The Midwest economy could have kept humming for weeks and months since the infections were only on the coasts. Most counties are also broken into balanced population segments where a city area may be a smaller-sized county and surrounding less-populated areas are grouped into larger counties according to land mass. The CDC, NIH and others would be wise to take advantage of the tail-end (hopefully) of the pandemic and quickly implement county by county guidelines for mask wearing, social distancing and business guidelines and nixing the national guidelines. If this was done, Fauci's comments above are unnecessary. Most counties in states such as Utah, Nevada, Missouri and Arkansas, that are experiencing outbreaks of the India variant currently, would follow the guideline where mask use is suggested even for vaccinated people when among crowds or indoors, but other counties in states such as Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, with high vaccination rates, would be telling residents to freely move and do anything maskless if vaccinated. The one size fits all approach for America does not work; it creates confusion and talking heads are providing conflicting advice. A county by county approach in dictating pandemic guidelines is the prudent path forward for the United States. It will minimize damage to the economy in future pandemics.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 7/4/21, at 3:00 PM EST: The Whitehouse hosts over 1,000 people including military families and essential workers for a huge gala while at the same time fear-mongering the India B1617 variant (delta) on news outlets. The fears disappear as the wine and beer flows like water. President Biden misses his goals of having 70% of the US adult population vaccinated with at least one shot by today and having 160 million Americans fully vaccinated. 20 states have reached the 70% goal. The goals appeared easily achievable but the massive cliff-dive in the vaccination rate, now at 576K doses per day, takes a dump in Sleepy Joe's Cheerios. Nonetheless, 67% is very close to the 70%, so the president gave it the ole college try, and the goal should be achieved this month. The CDC COVID Data Tracker tallies the results. Over 156 million Americans are fully vaccinated so Biden is less than 4 million people away from that goal which will also occur this month. The ace in the hole the Biden administration was hoping for was receiving the official approval for one or both of the mRNA vaccines instead of the ongoing emergency-use approval. When the official approval is received, the military, universities, schools and employers, will likely tell the unvaccinated to get down on their knees, roll up their sleeves, it is the US government masters, that they must please. The emergency approval is a key reason cited by many of the unvaccinated folks for not taking the shot so a major leg of the vaccine skeptic's stool will be taken away when/if the official approval occurs (it is only a matter of time). Biden proclaims, "We are closer than ever to declaring independence from a deadly virus. Do not get me wrong. We've got a lot more work to do. COVID-19 has not been vanquished." The president tells Americans that getting vaccinated "is the most patriotic thing you can do." Says he. What does taking a shot in your arm have to do with being patriotic? It is unfortunate that a POTUS would tell Americans they are unpatriotic if they choose not to be vaccinated. It is sick. The medical pundits proclaim, "Get the shot and get your life back," but plenty of unvaccinated folks are walking around maskless doing that already. Instead of July 4th, President Biden should be celebrating a bon voyage party for coronavirus wave 5 as it begins traveling across America.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/5/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The UK reports 24.2K daily new cases. Cases peak at 27.6K last Thursday, 7/1/21, and slip lower for 3 days. Prime Minister Johnson wants to remove the coronavirus guidelines on 7/19/21 and is banking on the cases continuing to pull back. He must be a gambling man that loves to roll the dice. UK hospitalizations are not rising substantially as yet but with the UK active cases curve rising, the hospitalizations and deaths would be expected to bump higher. The Keystone Model targets 7/31/21 as when the active cases curve will flatten, or peak, and roll over. The UK's major wave peaked with daily new cases on 1/8/21 and then the active cases chart peaked 20 days later on 2/1/21 (the Keystone Model uses 28 days). Using the UK's own prior information, the active cases curve, which represents the maximum strain on the healthcare system for the current wave, will likely not peak, or flatten, and roll over, until the end of the month. The timing does not jive with Johnson's lifting of the covid restrictions; he needs the daily cases to take a dramatic drop, which they may. The governments have more up to date data. Spain and Netherlands report ever-increasing daily cases. The daily cases in Sydney, Australia, drop from 35 to 16 over the last 2 days an encouraging sign. The jury is out on the spread of the India B1617 variant (delta). Some countries and regions are having success at stalling the spread of the virus while it is spinning out of control in other places. It depends a lot on the percentage of the population that is vaccinated and the vaccine used. Indonesia reports 555 deaths the deadliest day of the pandemic which occurs every day in recent days. Indonesia is running out of oxygen. It would be wise for Japan or other nations to send some help to Indonesia. People never forget who helped them when times were bleakest. Vietnam and Thailand continue reporting record daily cases with active cases also increasing. The Phuket reopening ceremony results in Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha self-isolating after being exposed to a person at the event that tests positive for coronavirus. Thailand may want to leave these developments out of their marketing brochure for Phuket. Kazakhstan reports over 3K daily new cases the highest ever. Mongolia remains a mess. It is interesting that China, where the Wuhan Virus began, is now surrounded by disease but manages to keep coronavirus in check month after month. Russia reports 25.1K daily new cases the highest for the current wave 3. Ruskie deaths are at record levels. Putin is hiding under the bed. Brazil's daily new cases are backing off over the last week but the coronavirus pain continues. The street protests in Brazil are increasing demanding Bolsonaro's resignation; he is hiding under the bed. Bolsonaro's future is in jeopardy as courts approve an investigation into his dirty and corrupt vaccine deals taking place in backrooms.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/5/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The new US wave 5 remains a question mark with the expected low weekend data occurring. The numbers in the week ahead will reveal the path forward. Hopefully, wave 5 is a nothing-burger and will quickly roll over and die. On the positive side, the 3-day MA for US daily new cases squeezes out a lower low so this stalls the upward move in daily cases, but does not confirm a resumption of the downward trend. The 7-day MA is also off its high by a touch. The lower weekend numbers will skew the data lower so the next week has to play out to remove the data noise from the holiday. People are out and about maskless. Obviously, with most everyone in stores not wearing masks, many of these folks are unvaccinated. People are sick of the pandemic and getting on with life damn the consequences.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/5/21, at 10:00 AM EST: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson goes all-in on the 7/19/21 reopening. It is full steam ahead in ending social distancing and removing mask mandates. Masks will be voluntary in 2 weeks and bars and restaurants will be operating freely. Johnson says hospitalizations and deaths remain in check despite rising daily new cases and Brit's will have to learn to live with coronavirus. Netherlands removed their mask mandates about a week ago and cases are rising. Ditto Greece that has bars packed each night with drunken revelers having a great time. Greece is now in a new wave 4. Judging from Greece and Netherlands, UK is likely headed down this path and will see further rises in daily cases. On the positive side, Greece and Netherlands deaths are not rising. The active cases are rising, however, so the new outbreaks display daily cases rising, and people do become very sick requiring doctor, clinic or hospital care, but they are not dying. The active cases charts rising indicates that hospitalizations will rise. England's Duchess Kate is exposed to someone that test positive for coronavirus so she is self-isolating. Prince William has already had coronavirus. It is humorous how mere mortals believe they can control viruses or will them away by decree. With a little luck, the world should break free from coronavirus over the coming months. Many viruses burn themselves out after 18 months and COVID-19 may be no different.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/5/21, at 11:00 AM EST: . A University of Louisville research study, that is ignored by the liberal (democrat; progressive) press (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, New York Times, Washington Post) concludes that mask mandates did not help slow COVID-19 transmission in the United States. The study is touted by the right-leaning (republican; conservative; GOP) media (Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart, AM talk radio) and will create controversy. The study concludes that mask mandates are not associated with lower virus spread across the US. In addition, when masks are worn in excess of 4 hours in one day, a person is at increased bacterial risk and may experience headaches, dehydration and cognitive loss.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 7/5/21: St Louis, Missouri, is the latest city or region to reimplement mask-wearing indoors for vaccinated people. Southern Missouri is a coronavirus hot zone in the United States. Los Angles county was first to ask vaccinated people to wear masks indoors due to the ongoing outbreak. Fauci says 99.2% of the coronavirus deaths in the United States are unvaccinated people and 0.8% is vaccinated folks. He touts the statistic to encourage people to get vaccinated. The stat has no time reference. Was it a one-day period? Or over several days or weeks? The number appears too high on its face. Fauci does not reference the source for his statistics; he simply expects you to believe him by decree. Of course the majority of deaths will be unvaccinated people. Duh. If the vaccines do what they say, it is no surprise at all. It is reminiscent of former President Trump telling states to not test for coronavirus because if there were not as many tests there would not be as many cases. Trump wanted case numbers to remain low because he was more worried about his reelection than handling the pandemic. It is Captain Obvious stuff. If you do not test, of course you will not have cases. If a vaccine is 95% effective, lo and behold, only a small percentage of vaccinated people die of COVID-19.
