SOX Semiconductors Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; AI Chips Are the New Tulip Bulbs

The chip stocks are the favorite flavor for the last few years especially as the artificial intelligence hype continues. Tech workers want to keep their jobs so of course they pump the AI narrative promoting the new technology as the greatest thing since sliced bread. It is so great that it has limited to no impact on business over the last 3 years. Huh? The AI chips are the new tulip bulbs. Instead of new vibrant tulip colors to feed the frenzy, it is fancy names such as H200, and Blackwell and Rubin that feed the AI frenzy.

The semiconductors on the main AI stage currently are NVDA, AMD, AVGO and MRVL. NVIDIA is the king of the hill, then AMD, or you can say AMD and AVGO share the second tier. Broadcom is making the Google AI chips so everyone jumped on board as it appears that Google's Gemini platform is edging out the Open AI ChatGPT platform. Marvell trails the other three but it is a notable player in the AI race nonetheless. All four puked their guts out last week with NVDA coughing up -4%, AMD slapped more than -3%, AVGO collapsing -8% and MRVL crashing -15% that is not marvelous.

Everyone is caught up in the AI hype. As they say in the Bronx, "Good luck wit dat." The AI garbage is just an aggregator at its heart. It will allow call centers to can a couple of employees, and businesses to get rid of the part-time workers performing research and other tasks for minimum wage, and to eliminate a few positions in the drug development programs, and render learning a language useless since the smartphones handle all that now, but, what else ya got?

People do not care about fancy computer information and the new AI fantasy when they are trying to support themselves, some working two jobs, and worried about money every day. The have's play with AI while the have-not's struggle to make ends meet. Where will future funding of the AI come from after the initial money is spent and everyone looks around realizing they are standing in a financial circle jerk?

The enterprise software, such as SAP (pronounced S-A-P not as 'sap' that denotes a fool and jackass) has been around over 20 years. This software has streamlined businesses and made work flow through companies efficient. The accounting department now has only 2 employees when it used to have 8 two decades ago. What is AI going to do? You will have to still keep the 2 employees because one may get hit by a bus on the way to work.

It is also funny that AI is promoted as an all-knowing omniscient force. Keystone's library has 8,000 books and about 500 are pre 1910 with the oldest over 250 years old. These books are not on the internet; how can an AI robot know everything when it does not have all the information? How about scientific and mathematical data? Companies are going to want to keep that stuff confidential. What good is a superfast, gifted computer when it will not have important data for solving a problem that people want to solve? It sounds like a bunch of overhyped nonsense that will disappoint. The jury is out on the so-called AI revolution. AI this! (place hand on crotch like Michael Jackson). Michael and the great Orianthi practicing "Beat It."

The chips went to Orgy Town since April but it looks like the party has run its course. Now, like Roy Brown and "Big Town," the semi's are in trouble and must beg for a nickel to call their baby and beg to come back home. The multi-month rally was fun but now it is time to pay the piper. Price bounces off the 20-wk MA, now at 6409 and rising, so keep an eye on this important support going forward. The dirty SOX will stink badly if the 20-wk is lost.

The red lines show the universal neggie d across all indicators as price made the higher high. She's cooked. Stick a fork in it on the weekly basis. Comically, as the SOX takes the first move off the top on what should be the start of a multi-week neggie d spankdown, the Aroon green line is at one hundo so every single chip bull remains a chip bull no matter what happens. Likewise, the red line down at 4% shows that most every chip bear also believes that chips will go up forever. That's funny (and a contrarian indicator).

The ADX shows that the last strong trend for the SOX was higher in early 2024 but that petered out and price stumbled sideways. The dip in April occurs but that was not viewed by the ADX as a strong trend lower. It was about to be, moving above the 25-30 area, but instead it rolled over lower as price recovered from the spring lows. Price makes the higher highs now but the ADX does not confirm the rally as a strong trend higher and further, the ADX is negatively diverging away from price (bearish).

Help! The chip ship is taking on water. Quick, throw those H200 chips overboard to lighten the load. We must stay afloat and keep the AI hype going. Oh no. Watch out for that DeepSeek log in front of us. Bump. Whoaa! This whole AI thing is getting shaky. Are you sticking around?

Keystone is not long or short the chips right now but the chart tells you short is the direction ahead on the weekly basis. Chips are a leader so the broad stock market will likely want to follow. The SOX monthly chart is crappy with indicators mostly neggie d, that will help the weekly chart kick prices lower, but the histogram and MACD squeeze out higher highs so far for the month of December. If this remains through the end of the year, one more jog move would likely be needed on the monthly basis to place the top. Price would drop for a few weeks, as per the chart above, but then come all the way back up for matching highs, when the monthly chart will be completely neggie d and mark a long-term top for chips as the new year begins (months and a year or few of downside ahead for chips).

The MACD on the monthly chart is in nosebleed territory so it has nowhere to go but down so it may not be all that important and the major long-term top would be in, NOW. There is still a lot of December to play out, so the histogram and MACD may turn neggie d over the next 3 weeks. Simply watch the charts. There is no need to guess.

Bring up the daily chart and you can see the neggie d spankdown plain as day. Price made the higher high, the double-top pattern, with all the indicators sloping lower, negative divergence, so she is cooked on the daily basis and this kicked in the negativity last week. SOX will have fits and starts but the weekly and monthly charts point to sad times ahead not the happy AI joy that all the twits, in their fleece sweaters sporting the tech company logo, profess nowadays.

Silicon Valley tech workers scream, "Blasphemy!" They say Keystone does not know what he is talking about and AI is the greatest thing since the invention of the railroad and internet. Are you sure about that? Things always sound good on paper but take far longer to implement in widespread practice and if successful, it does not happen overnight, and it typically does not live up to all the hype. If you are a novice trader and riding the chip hype, get yourself out before you get hurt. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Tempting Failure at 50-Wk MA that Would Have Serious Negative Consequences for the US Stock Market

It is time to be very afraid. Kitty saw the utilities chart and ran away; now hiding under the bed and refusing to come out. Animals must sense danger. Price is tapping on the trap-door. If you are standing at the gallows with a noose around your neck, it is advisable to not tap the trap-door with your foot. Gallows Pole. Hangman! Hangman!

Bad things will happen to the US stock market if price fails at the 50-wk MA at 1057; it is a trap-door for equities. If she fails, expect the SPX to dump a big chunk within a short time after the failure and things will get worse from there. Bulls must keep UTIL, or DJU, above 1057 by all means necessary, otherwise, they will be walking the Green Mile to the Gallows Pole.

You have to squint but you can see the 50-wk MA line at 1057 inside the blue square, and the lower shadow of the candlestick, representing the low price for the week thus far, and today is the first day of the week so that is the same as Monday, is 1059, only a hair from failure that will wreak havoc on the US stock market. It is high drama with the SPX gains for this year on the line.

Everybody and his bro are calling for smooth sailing into the new year with more stock market gains ahead along with rainbows, blue skies, flowers and puppy dogs. There are no bears. It will be quite a site if UTIL, or DJU, 1057 fails.

The US stock market goes into a crash profile if UTIL 1057 is lost. This means that a major crash for US equities is on the table if the failure occurs. Watch the drama closely. If you choose to remain long stocks, and you see UTIL lose 1057, it will be time for you to bend over and assume the position. Kenny and The First Edition Just Stopped In to see what position my condition was in. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; M-Top or Double-Top; Negative Divergence; Fibonacci Retracements

Dead man walking. Stand back everyone. Dead man walking. The SPX is walking the Green Mile, folks. It is time for him to pay for his greedy sins. You can't help him anymore. He's walkin' the Green Mile. Stand back.

Charts are in neggie d wanting a spankdown. Put/calls are screaming rampant complacency and euphoric bullishness. Analysts are already calling for SPX 8K when 7K did not print yet. Investors expect the rate cuts to send stocks to the moon rewarding America's wealthy class once again. The Santa Claus rally is guaranteed by all market participants. Everything is bullish. Even the bears are now bulls. What could possibly go wrong?

Watching this major stock market top play out is getting old. It is a very atypical top for sure. After the top at Halloween, and subsequent neggie d spankdown as forecasted, stocks recover after a couple weeks of downside action due to the happy rate-cut talk, AI hype and King Donnie's optimistic bloviations.

So here we are again around 69 hundo. It is surprising that it made it this far up but it will not be surprising if this behavior was the blow-off top like the dotcom bubble (when everyone, and his brother, currently says the blow-off top is another year or two away). The all-time top is 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high is 6890.89 on 10/28/25. These all-time records occurred over a month ago; it does not seem like it.

The SPX weekly chart remains set up with negative divergence across all indicators. It is time for the long stock holders to take their medicine. Bend over and grab your ankles. A multi-week smackdown will occur as everyone is bullish and celebrating the holidays. If long stocks, your holiday is about to get ruined. Save yourself before it is too late.

The SPX is now in an M-Top formation, or double-top, Mazel Tov in 2026, and the final leg lower is expected going forward for the coming weeks. She bounced off the 20-wk MA a couple weeks ago now at 6605 so watch this level. If it fails, there will be Hell to pay. Utilities are collapsing while no one is looking forecasting big stock market trouble ahead.

The Fibonacci retracements are shown for the multi-month rally from April to now. The first 38% Fib retracement is at 6154-ish right at that strong price support at 6200-ish. The 50-wk MA is there at 6160 moving higher. When she starts falling apart, that should be any time, maybe Black Monday?, the 6605 will likely fail and price will seek the solid support at 6150-6200. That would be a nice drop that would get everyone's attention. Are you ready for this fun ahead or are you stuffing your fat face with holiday treats, cookies and candy no longer paying attention to the stock market? You will have to learn a lesson.

Plan for a large pullback in the stock market that will run for several weeks. Keybot the Quant remains long but remember, the robot travels the smoothest path through the year so it does not catch the exact tops or exact bottoms. It will be telling if/when the quant flips short. Keystone is holding index shorts betting against the US stock market and will likely bring on more shorts going forward. It is time to flush the stock market turd. The bulls yell, "Blasphemy!" The bulls demand that stocks go up forever proclaiming that it is "Never Enough" as Patty sings.

Here is a great poem about the markets, economy, and the season, from Poet Tarzana Joe. It is called "All Indicators Indicate" by Tarzana Joe.

Pay attention folks. If you are holding stocks on the long side, you are about to be taken to the shed out back and whipped. Do you want to be whipped? Are you ready to face your Waterloo? "Waterloo" by Stonewall Jackson. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Gift of the Maji

Merry Christmas to all. Happy Hannukah and Kwanza, too. And Happy Festivus. And Boxing Day. It is a great day to read "The Gift of the Maji" by O. Henry. He was a great writer if you are looking for things to read; his short stories are quick reads that always end in trick, or surprising, endings. Read the story or watch the YouTube film with family and friends, especially with your children.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

Wheee! Whoopie! The bulls are partying like its 1999. Traders and investors have concluded that stocks will go up forever so even the bears are bullish and buying stocks; a primal lust to buy equities. Meanwhile, back at Realville, equities are setting up for a pullback so the bears will have a turn and we shall see what they got. Utilities continue dropping a very ominous sign for the stock market. Kitty is afraid after seeing the ute chart and still will not come out from under the bed.

The SPX 2-hour chart is setting up/set-up with negative divergence so a top is in for the 2-hour time frame. The green lines show stocks dropping into a falling wedge pattern (bullish), with oversold conditions and positive divergence across all indicators (indicators are sloping up as price drops that means she is fueled-up for a rocket launch higher) that sends price to the moon.

Now we have the opposite, the yin and the yang, night and day, cold and hot, that Katy Perry chick sings the Hot n Cold song, with her gyrations it was more hot than cold. Anyhoo, the red lines show stocks rallying higher into a rising wedge pattern (bearish), with overbot conditions and negative divergence across all indicators (indicators are sloping down as price continues higher that means she is out of gas and price should reverse and fall apart) that should create a neggie d spankdown in the hourly timeframe.

The 2-hour candles are printed at 9:30 AM EST, 10 AM, 12 PM (noon) and 2 PM, then repeat the next day. That is the way stockcharts does it. So there will be another candlestick in a half hour at munch time and you can check to make sure the neggie d remains in place and if so, the top is in, and she will be spanked lower. The stock market is being naughty so it needs spanked.

The bulls are trying to keep stocks buoyant all week because equities typically rise 80% of the time the couple days before the Fed rate decision meeting that is on Wednesday next week. Also, a rate cut is expected so that easy money will flow into the stock market to make the rich richer. Three cheers for crony capitalism filth!

Thus, if the bears want to growl and make hay, now is the time to sh*t or get off the pot. Maybe a soggy late-day to end the week? Maybe a Black Monday on tap? Sentiment is off the charts bullish so all of these happy people, most of you reading this, must pay a price. Keybot the Quant remains long so this topside dance for the US stock market continues. I Melt With You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:34 PM EST: The noon candlestick is in play now and a new one will begin at 2 PM. The price highs match and the neggie d remains. What is holding the SPX up? Blow on it and it should fall over. There is happy talk about a healthcare plan being released next week by Congress. Everyone remains bullish, and wants to party bullishly all weekend long, and then show up on Monday to be bullish again. Bears only exist in the museum now, in the extinct display. SPX is up 21 points at 6878.

Note Added 5:35 PM EST: The bulls keep it green into the weekend with the SPX at 6870. Nothing's changed; the drama continues on Monday. The market makers would not let the SPX turn red today that is interesting. There is likely no more bullish time than now for many years. Business program participants, internet panelists, strategists, analysts, the Uber driver, the fry cook, and the doorman, are all long the market. Wall Street analysts are calling out SPX 8K targets for next year and 7K has not occurred yet. Father McClean took the parishes money and went 3x long with ETF's today with everyone praying that the good times continue unabated. Comically, a business panel on television will have all bullish participants but no one comments about the fact that they are all bullish. It is one big party into 2026. Everyone guarantees a Santa Claus rally to end the year. This rally occurs from Christmas Eve through New Years Day for a day or two. For this year, the Santy rally would be from Wednesday, 12/24/25 through Friday, 1/2/26. Stocks are usually higher in this period 90% of the time but sometimes you are only talking marginal gains or a percent or two. Everyone ignores the fact that there are 12 trading days until you get to the Santy rally and even then there is no guarantee. You may receive coal in your Christmas stocking like Keystone. One year he did not receive coal, but it was because the sock had a hole in it. The put/calls are low verifying the rampant complacency and a stock market top at hand. Utilities collapsing is a bad signal for the broad stock market. UTIL is down to 1077 from over 1180 a month ago. Professional traders know that stocks are bullish the couple days (next week) before going into a Fed meeting (next Wednesday) so everyone is front running the move because the bullishness is busting out at the seams. The bulls expect the party to continue into 2026 and they tell everyone to jump on the bull train that is bound for glory. Wheee! Whoopie! This Train Is Bound for Glory. Everyone is bulled-up and all aboard the bull train. Are you caught up in it all? There is no more perfect time for a Black Monday to appear. The greedy pigs are fattened beyond belief so they best be harvested now. Do not be complacent folks. Instead be nimble. Be water my friend.

DVY Dividend ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Dividend Stocks About to Receive a Multi-Week Smackdown

Everybody loves their divvy. Everyone is brainwashed into the divvy compounding cult going forward. Investors puff their chests out as they proclaim, "I only buy dividend-producing stocks." Divvy, divvy, divvy, you get dizzy, I'm so dizzy my head is spinning, I'm so dizzy, I can't see. Tommy Roe.

Like Pavlov's dog, any time someone hears the word dividend they hit the buy, buy, buy button without thinking twice. There are likely lots of young folks in dividend-producing stocks looking forward to gaining wealth and compounding price upside and dividends. So is a lot of other people. In fact the chart above shows everyone and his bro are into dividend stocks with the same idea. All the folks chasing dividend stocks are slapping each other on the back proclaiming how smart they are for owning the big dividend producers (bloated behemoths).

Going forward in America, the coming decades will not be like prior decades. The population was increasing into the new century driving stock markets higher. More people, production and wealth was the steady path ahead, until now, when young folks cannot afford to have families anymore. The US is on the downside of the baby boomer stuff.

Baby boomers that have lots of bucks in stocks will pull that out as they pay for their health problems and continue to help their adult children that cannot support themselves. A young person working as a barista at Starbucks is not going to step in and buy the stock that the older folks are cashing-out. Think about the demographics going forward before listening to the talking heads on television and the internet that have one arm around your shoulder like your best friend, but the other hand is reaching in your back pocket.

Anyhoo, DVY price prints a higher high and another touch of the bearish rising wedge pattern. The chart indicators are all negatively diverged so DVY is cooked. Crispy-fried. Stick a fork in it. The top is in and a multi-week pullback should begin, and this week is the first week of pulling back as the red candlestick shows.

Interestingly, the chart was already neggie d at the start of October, and it received a spankdown, but it recovered. That was due to the Fed rate cut talk and AI hype and other happy talk. It is odd. There was no reason for DVY to come back up for a higher high after the October top, but it did. And look how drastically lower the chart indicators are now; completely out of gas and neggie d.

The bottom rail of the rising red wedge is in play as support; price stopped there today at 142 to sit on the rail and make a bounce or die decision tomorrow. Below is the 20-wk MA at 139 that served as support over the last couple months. If she fails, the rout will be on and all of you divvy chasers will be running for your lives losing your money. That will be fun to watch. The 137-ish is strong price support and another downside target.

The drops from rising wedge patterns can be quite dramatic so if you are long divvy stocks, and start to see price drop, you may want to begin clenching your buttocks.

The move higher in late 2024 was a strong trend higher as the pink box for the ADX shows but despite higher prices over the last year, the move higher is not considered a strong trend higher. The Aroon green line shows that nearly every DVY bull remains bullish expecting the stock to go up forever. Comically, the red line shows that nearly every DVY bear also believes that the stock will go up forever. Everyone is on the DVY bull side of the boat as the craft begins swaying and rocking to and fro.

If you own a lot of dividend-producing stocks such as MO, F, STX, VZ, PFE, EIX, ES, KEY, ADM and D, you are about to have a religious experience to end the year. That is appropriate considering the time of year. Bend over and assume the position. Keystone is not playing DVY long or short right now but the preferred play going forward would be to short DVY.

Hold on, let's check the shorter term charts for clues or to help with the timing if you want to go short. Wow. That is cool. On the DVY daily chart, you can see a megaphone pattern, or expansion pattern, plain as day. She tapped the top rail of the megaphone 5 days ago so the moive down to the bottom of the expansion pattern would be..... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer ..... 137-ish. The DVY started receiving the neggie d spankdown on Monday. DVY should remain soggy and drop lower and lower for a few weeks perhaps through the end of the year. DVY may drop sharply from the rising wedge any day forward.

Do you like divvy stocks? Did you always feel smart because you owned them? Assume the position. The hippest Christmas song. Run Run Rudolph. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Do Not Forget Those in Need During the Holiday Season

It is the holiday season so do not forget those in need. Food banks are getting whacked this year as the need is high and the supplies lower especially as US funding programs dry-up or disappear. Local food banks are always looking for volunteers, as are local thrift stores and other places. Clear out your pantry of canned goods and donate them to the local food bank; you can go buy new stuff.

If you have clothes or wares to donate, and you do, do not give them to the big-box thrift conglomerate that starts with a G. Half that stuff goes into people's pockets. Instead, search out the poor town that is near where you live and you will find that there is a thrift store there, perhaps one block back from the main street. Give your donations to those thrift stores since the blue-haired gals know who is in need in the community including the working poor. They will also typically take canned goods and other food donations.

Wounded Warriors, Tunnel to Towers, the Gary Sinese Foundation, and lots of other charities can always use donations. Humorously, if you need return address labels for the snail mail you send, do not give $15 bucks to Scamazon. Instead, write a check or donate that $15 directly to a charity of your choice and it is guaranteed that you will receive endless address labels for yourself. The charities provide the free address labels hoping that will entice you into donating in the future. Comically, Keystone has 80,000 return address labels that will never be used.

And do not forget building materials and things for the house or garage that were never used. Maybe you have a new window, or door, that was never installed, or kept the old one after it was replaced and it is still in good shape. That stuff can go to Habitat for Humanity that was started by former President Jimmy Carter. They will take any building materials leftover from jobs. There should be a location near you and you can call them if you have any questions. So you no longer have an excuse not to clean the garage. Load up the stuff that is still usable by handymen and drive it down to the Habitat for Humanity location. They will be happy to take it and use some of it on the houses they fix, or build, for the poor.

So there are lots of ways to help those less fortunate. If you go to bed hungry and your stomach is growling as a child, it is something you never forget in life. So donate to your local community to help others and you may find that it actually helps yourself. Merry Christmas to all and Happy Holidays.

It was an annual event for Darlene Love to sing "Christmas" on Letterman each year. What a beautiful lady with a powerful voice. She was born to perform.

DUST 2x Inverse Gold Miner ETF Weekly Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended

DUST is done and dusted, but the 2x inverse gold miners ETF wants to rise like a phoenix from the ashes. The gold miners, GDX, and the juniors, GDXJ, are moon shots along with gold this year. The gold bugs finally have their day in the sunshine receiving big gains for their loyalty to the yellow metal.

DUST moves lower when the gold miners, such as GDX, move higher, and DUST moves higher when GDX moves lower. This explains the severe beating on display above. A couple charts ago, Keystone talked about gold and the miners developing, or at, a neggie d top.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we never sat at the cool kid's table, DUST should be in positive divergence (if gold and GDX are in negative divergence) and the chart clearly shows that to be the case (green lines). Price is fueled-up ready for a trip higher, a rocket launch, on the weekly basis. The green falling wedge and oversold conditions are also bullish set-ups. Ditto price extended below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher.

If you bring up the DUST daily chart, that is also possie d across all chart indicators. If you bring up the DUST 2-hour chart, that is also possie d. Keystone pulled the trigger. Pull it! Pull it! Pull it! Shoot to Thrill. Play to kill. Too many women, too many pills. There's only one Angus. No smartphones in that crowd; life was better.

Anyhoo, many traders have stepped up to the plate to catch the DUST falling knife over the last year and some are only left with bloody stumps. The BPGDM, bullish percent gold miners, hit 100% in August and it is odd that gold miners have not cracked yet. The constant Powell drumbeat of rate cuts maintains a soggy dollar and a weak dollar sends gold, and the folks that mine the gold, to the moon.

One week from now, Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell everyone how to trade the crony capitalism system so those comments and the rate decision will impact, stocks, bonds, dollar, gold, etc..

Keystone bot DUST today once the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts were all set up with possie d. Another potential trade would be shorting GDX and even shorting individual gold miner names. It is usually a fool's errand to jump in front of a fast-moving gold and gold miner train but Keystone wants to find out if that is the gold train or instead the light at the end of the tunnel paving the way to gold miners in retreat. Long DUST is a speculative trade not for the faint of heart. Going against a strong gold and gold miner trade this year is high-risk trading but, no guts, no glory.

DUST violated the lower band so the middle band at 13.73 and falling sharply is on the table. Ditto the upper band at 22.65 and falling sharply. The ADX is off the charts and only has one direction to go in; down. The ADX did not identify the long painful road lower as a strong trend lower until the summertime (ADX over 28-ish). This would be expected to roll over and go sub 30 as time plays out.

Knowing that gold and gold miners are a moon shot, how do you think the Aroon looks? Yes, the red line shows that all the DUST bears remain bearish and expect the chart to continue lower and lower. Humorously, the green line shows that nearly all the DUST bulls expect the chart to go lower and lower. There are no DUST bulls; zilch. Everyone has given up on DUST and expects gold miners to move higher in price forever. Well, there is one DUST bull now; Keystone. Dust bowl; that is funny. It will be fun to watch. Maybe not if DUST continues lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Slipping into Weekly Downtrend Forecasting Big Trouble if it Continues

Kitty is scared after seeing the utility chart and runs away to hide under the bed. Lots of drama is occurring with the utes as the stock market decides if a major top is printing right now. The utilities are playing a role in deciding who wins on the road ahead. That is why the old-timer's watch them.

The 15-week lookback confirms either a weekly uptrend or downtrend and the broad stock market follows. The 50-wk MA, now at 1056, is a line in the sand where very bad things happen to the stock market if it fails.

Thus, for this week, the closing price to compare to 15 weeks ago was 1109.48 (orange circle). Price fell through 1109 today creating some of the day's sogginess with stocks. UTIL continues lower to 1093 an ominous development but few know what to watch especially when they are whistling past the cemetery. Pet Sematary by the great Ramones. Joey's voice will be haunting forever.

Thus, for this week, the bulls need to push UTIL back above 1109 or they will be in trouble. New record highs will not occur unless the bulls push UTIL back above 1109 this week.

For next week, the week of 12/8/25, with the Fed decision on 12/10/25, the 1109.48 becomes meaningless and is replaced with 1088.74 (light blue circle). For the week after that, the week of 12/15/25, the 1088.74 will be meaningless and replaced with 1078.53 (purple circle). Note that after that, the comparison numbers increase (gray line) so it is easier for the bulls to keep their heads above water over the next 2-1/2 weeks, but after that, the bears have an advantage going forward.

Of course, if utes continue lower now, it will be all negativity and doom and gloom ahead. The 50-wk MA at 1056 is a trap-door for the stock market. If it fails, the SPX will dump 30 or 40 points within a few hours and the stock market will be in a crash profile (there is a high liklihood that stocks may crash). At the least, big percentage moves lower would be expected going forward.

So you want to assemble the pieces above into a mosaic that can paint the future. If UTIL recovers above 1109, the bulls will be celebrating bigtime and will carry stocks higher into year end 'singing songs and carryin' on, all night long'. Sounds like a Hank Williams Jr song. Family Tradition.

The stock market is in trouble if UTIL remains below 1109 this week. If 1056 fails, the stock market will be falling in earnest. Since 1089 is the key number for next week, watch the closing price on Friday for this week. If UTIL ends the week below 1089, there will be Hell to pay next week and all eyes will be watching to see if the 1056 fails that will usher-in Hell on Earth. It's fun. Now you know what to watch.

We need some Jose Feliciano to liven up this joint. Feliz Navidad. Come on ladies, get on the dance floor and start shaking your money-maker's. Even white folks can find some rhythm listening to Jose. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 12/3/25: UTIL drops to 1085 and finishes the day at 1089. Kitty is very afraid of the ute chart and refuses to come out from under the bed. The time has come. Beds Are Burning.