Friday 10/28/16 Events Occurring in Real-Time
At 1 PM EST, 10/28/16, computer screens begin flashing red. Bombshell news hits the
wires. FBI Director Comey has sent a letter to Congress stating that the
investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails is reopened. Comey says an
investigation into an unrelated case has revealed emails and information
pertinent to the prior Clinton email probe. Comey is proven untrustworthy back
in July after he held the press conference highlighting the illegal activity
performed by Hillary Clinton then refusing to recommend charges.
Comey, President Obama, Hilary Clinton, former President
Bill Clinton and Attorney General Lynch likely acted in collusion to sweep the
email investigation under the rug. Comey now feels obligated to reopen the
probe. In a separate matter, Lynch appears on Capitol Hill testifying before
Congress on the secret Iran ransom payments and pleads the fifth. The country’s
top law enforcement officer is hiding behind the Fifth Amendment to avoid
exposing her alleged nefarious and perhaps illegal behavior. Washington, DC, is
a cesspool of corruption.
Comey is a spy and well versed on ways to manipulate human
minds. A cynical person would think that Comey is simply creating a diversion
to steer the attention away from the daily drip, drip, drip of Wikileaks emails
that are damaging Clinton’s standing in the polls. In a few days, Comey may say
‘nothing to see here, move along, move along’. He cannot be trusted. On the
other hand, there may be proof of mishandling of classified documents and
Hillary Clinton may sink into a legal quagmire and lose the election.
It is unprecedented for the FBI to insert itself into
politics 11 days before a presidential election. Comey says he does not know
how long it will take to conduct the investigation. Comey says he does not yet
know if the new information is material to the Clinton email investigation.
Sounds like the FBI director is already inserting weasel words and playing
games.
The Clinton camp remains quiet on the matter without
comment. Republican candidate Trump is at a rally crowing like a rooster. The
Trump campaign receives a shot in the arm. The crowd cheers as Trump says, “The
FBI has a chance to right the horrible mistake they made” and “this (the new FBI
investigation) is bigger than Watergate.” The cable news outlets and internet are
going wild as the bombshell news drops on a Friday afternoon.
In 10 minutes, from 1:00 PM to 1:10 PM, the SPX drops from
2140 to 2126 losing 14 points. The Dow collapses from 18250 to 18133. The
Nasdaq Composite drops from 5228 to 5198. The RUT drops from 1195 to 1190.
The 10-year yield drops from 1.85% to 1.83% as investors
seek safety. The USD drops from 98.70 to 98.40 and heading lower. The Mexican
peso currency pair, a proxy for the US presidential race between Clinton and
Trump, moves from an 18-handle to 19.0420 reflecting a weaker peso and polls
moving in favor of Trump. Before the three debates began in late September, the
Mexican peso pair was at 20-ish and dropped below 19 to an 18-handle over the
last week indicating that Clinton was winning in the polls with the peso
strengthening.
Stocks are printing the lows of the day. SPX 2124. INDU
18119. COMPQ 5193. RUT 1188. The VIX is at the highs of the day at 17.10.
The bookie odds begin to assign more hope for Trump winning
the presidency. The odds makers had favored Clinton over Trump by 5 to 1 but the
odds are changing to 3 to 1 favoring Clinton. More information on the new
Clinton investigation is needed. 80% of the media provides the news from the
democrat perspective so it is funny to see talking heads on CNN and MSNBC
exhibiting panic that their candidate may go down in a ball of flames.
At the same time, the other 20% of the media that provides
news stories supporting the republican perspective are rejoicing into the
Halloween party weekend. The Drudge Report is all a flutter and pundits on Fox
News are throwing confetti telling everyone to vote for Trump. The bread and
circus days continue.
At 1:50 PM, the SPX is down 10 points to 2123. The Dow is
down 50 points to 18120. The Nasdaq drops 22 points to 5194. The RUT is flat at
1190. VIX 17.18.
WTIC oil is down -1.6% to 48.94 dropping like a stone. Brent
oil is down -1.4% to 49.76 also moving lower. The OPEC producers continue to
balk at reducing oil production. Natty 3.10. Gold is up 12 dollars, +1%, to
1281. Silver gains +1.2% to 17.86. Copper gains +1.5% to 2.1955. Copper
continues to support the markets.
Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.85%, 5-year 1.32%, 10-year 1.84%,
30-year 2.21%. The 2-10 spread is 99 bips reflecting a steeper yield curve.
Euro 1.0982. Euro/yen 114.91. Dollar/yen 104.64. Pound
1.2205. Euro/pound 0.9001. Mexican peso 19.0520. Canadian dollar 1.3406.
Dollar/yuan 6.7789.
More information hits the wires. The new emails, that may
impact Clinton’s presidential bid, surface during an ongoing FBI investigation
into disgraced politician Anthony Weiner that is married to Huma Abedin,
Clinton’s top aid. Weiner is accused of sexting with an underage minor. Abedin
and Weiner are separated but remain married.
Secret government information may have been transmitted
between Weiner, Aberdin and Clinton on unsecure servers. The Wikileaks and
other information is making Americans question why Hillary and Bill Clinton are
filthy rich, multi-millionaires, when their whole adult lives they serve as
public sector employees. The Clinton Foundation is likely a cash cow of
influence peddling; a piggybank for the Clinton’s quid pro quo activities.
US stocks end the day lower. The SPX drops 7 points, -0.3%,
to 2126. The S&P 500 bounces off the 150-day MA at 2121 intraday. LOD 2119.
Price also bounced from the 150-day 12 days ago so this moving average serves
as very important support. The INDU loses 8 points, call it flat, at 18161. The
20-day MA resistance is 18187 and the 150-day MA support is at 18079. LOD
18095.
The polls over the last couple months indicate a ceiling for Trump at around 44% of the vote while Clinton’s numbers at a floor around 44%. This is a bad omen for Trump. He must find a way to gain several percentage points or he is toast. The FBI announcement may deliver Trump the needed boost.
Campaign funds may play a key role in the final 10 days of
the US presidential race. As of mid-October, Clinton had $153 million in her
coffers while Trump had $68 million. Braggard Trump has said for months he will
spend $100 million and more of his own money but he has barely spent one-half
this amount. Once you become a politician, you automatically start lying to
everyone.
Trump may have only $16 million remaining in funds to get
him over the finish line in the final days. The lack of spending by Trump is obvious
when viewing television ads. In key states such as Pennsylvania, anecdotally, Clinton’s
television ads are outnumbering Trump ads by four to one. In Florida, the
Clinton ads are outnumbering Trump ads by ten to one or more. Clinton’s message
is obviously receiving more exposure. Trump is under pressure to provide funds
so he writes a check for $10 million for the campaign.
The FBI announcement changes the game only days before the
election. Several million people have already voted early. The Department of
Homeland Security wants briefed by the FBI by 11/4/16.
At 7 PM EST, Hillary Clinton conducts a very short press
conference and says she wants the FBI to release the new email information
before the election. The FBI will likely not release information since the
investigation is ongoing. Shed no tears for the Clinton’s since they
stonewalled the email investigation for the last couple years. If the Clinton’s
would have cooperated, this information would have already came out one year
ago instead of hitting days before the election. Clinton conducts the short
5-minute news conference to show she is not hiding from the surprising FBI
news.
Humorously, the trend in the presidential race indicates
that the candidate in the media spotlight is the one that loses in the polls.
Trump has had a tough couple weeks for his alleged groping of women and the
tape where he denigrates women. It is now Clinton’s turn in the barrel so the
polls will swing back toward Trump’s favor.
Saturday, 10/29/16
The news is dominated by the FBI
decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation. The presidential polls will
not build in the new information until Monday or Tuesday although a poll released
this morning shows Clinton’s lead quickly deteriorating to only two
percentage-points which is within the margin of error. Trump’s poll numbers hit
45% which is a tick above the general 44%-ish ceiling in place for several weeks
a big plus for the campaign.
