AAPL Apple 2-Hour Chart

Apple is the major focus today with earnings on tap after the closing bell. The weakness previously shown on the weekly chart creates a -3% loss off the top from four days ago but today is a crap-shoot. Charts can only price-in everything known up to the minute but the earnings announcement in a few hours will send price one way or the other and the charts will have to adjust.

On the 2-hour above, you can see the neggie d spankdown set up and occur smacking price lower off the 196 high.Price tagged the upper standard deviation band so a move to the middle band was expected and occurs and price continues lower to tag the lower band so now the middle band at 192.53 is on the table. The indicators are positively diverged sans the MACD line so price should bounce in the 2-hour time frame, then retreat again (due to the weak and bleak MACD line) for one more test of the current lows then likely recover.

However, as mentioned, earnings are on tap so anything can happen after 4 PM EST today. AAPL will probably bounce now, it is 10:40 AM, into say noon time or 1 PM, then likely roll over to come down for another test in this 188-189 area in the afternoon and just trade choppy into the bell waiting for the earnings tablets to come down from on high and dictate the path forward.

Global investors anxiously await Apple earnings after the closing bell. Analysts are focused on iPhone unit sales since the numbers dictate if Apple’s brand remains attractive to late adopters of smartphones. Samsung reported earnings noting a slowdown in overall smartphone sales.

The ongoing tariff battles and trade wars may impact iPhone sales overseas. Citizens tend to buy more products from domestic companies shunning international suppliers during tariff spats due to a spirit of nationalism. The numbers for Apple Services, that are expected to grow strongly, are key in the earnings release. Warren Buffett is a huge holder of AAPL stock. He pours Geritol into his coffee while he waits for the results. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The VIX is at 13.80 remaining below its critical 200-day MA at 14.37 which separates a short-term bull market versus a bear. Despite the sogginess in the tape, the market bulls are okay unless the VIX moves above 14.37.

Keybot the Quant identifies 15.18 as the key line in the sand where stocks will fall apart. Thus, if the VIX remains under 14.37, bulls are fine despite the market selling. If the VIX moves above 14.37, the downward slide in stocks is for real and will continue. If the VIX moves above 15.18, stocks will tumble lower in earnest. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:16 PM EST: The VIX is up to 14.03 moving towards the 14.37 for a potential test. Keep an eye on it since it tells you a lot about overall stock market direction.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Near-Term Top At Hand

The CPC put/call ratio drops to 0.74 signaling rampant euphoric bullishness. The cab driver said he invested his entire life savings in the stock market yesterday. Uncle Joe said he is on his way to the broker to place a whole paycheck long the market because Amazon reported great earnings. The low put/call verifies the rampant complacency and that a near-term top is at hand. It may take a few days for stocks to top out but it can occur at anytime forward.

The CPCE put/call is at 0.63 not yet at new lows so stocks may remain buoyant until the CPCE drops verifying the complacency. Stay on your toes. If you are a nimble short-term trader, do not get greedy, it is likely far more prudent to scale out of your longs now.

For the last low print on 6/12/18, the stock market topped out the next day. The CPC peaked on 6/28/18 which identified fear and panic exactly when the stock market rally began to the day. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX has not been posted in a while. Remember, the six-percentage point reversals are key stock market signals. The bears were joyous into the April bottom but the bulls recover from 35 to 41 with a market buy signal. The bears battle back in April with a sell signal but that was short-lived with another bull buy signal in May.

The bulls were happy into the June top, but the bears growl again receiving a market sell signal from 64 to 58. The market sell signal remains in play.

From 56.5, adding 6 points, is 62.5 for the market buy signal. Alas, the bulls fall a smidgeon short of this goal so the sell signal remains in play. The bulls need to push the BPSPX above 62.5 and it will be rosy joy for anyone long the market. The BPSPX will then likely track to 70 and higher and the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials will print record highs above the late January record highs.

The bears maintain the market sell signal and will receive a lot of downside juice if the prior low at 56.5 is taken out. Stocks will tumble lower in earnest. The bulls and bears battle between 56.5 and 62.5.  There will be only one winner. Bulls need 62.5+ to claim victory ahead while the bears will win if they keep the BPSPX below 62.5 and will win big under 56.5. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 7/27/18: The BPSPX prints 64.60 so the bulls receive a market buy signal with the six-percentage point reversal to the upside. Remain cautious, however, since the CPC put/call drops to a low 0.74 signaling that a near-term stock market top is near. The bulls and bears are in a fierce choppy battle as evidenced by the BPSPX changing signals six times since March more than once per month.

INDU Dow Jones Industrials Daily Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

The Dow displays a textbook sideways symmetrical triangle pattern. The triangle forms an apex out to the September-October time frame so a major market direction decision is on the come over the next couple-three months. Typically, price will poke out of the triangle about one-half to two-thirds of the way through which turns out to be the fake-out move with price returning inside the triangle and then exiting the opposite side. This chart, however, show price honoring the sideways triangle from January to present without any exit on either side as yet.

There is going to be a big winner and a big loser as the weeks play out. The bulls and bears are battling. The vertical side of the triangle is a huge 2800 points. If the bulls win and breakout from 24.8K to 25.2K, the upside target is 27.6K to 28.0K. If the bears win and price collapses out the bottom of the triangle at 24.5K to 24.9K, the downside target is 21.7K to 22.1K.

If the bulls break out higher, a breach of 26.5K will point to euphoric upside ahead for stocks going forward and a 28K target. If the bears break down lower, a breach of 23.3K will point to a collapse in price and perhaps the end of the long bull rally since March 2009.

Note the moving average ribbon with price above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 in late January. You knew a mean reversion was required and it occurs. Price collapses in February to test the 150-day MA and bounce (blue circle). Technicals matter. The moving average ribbon rolls over and look at the tight consolidation of all the MA's between 24505 and 24827. The bulls have the upper hand since price is above the upper limit of the moving average band at 24827.

Something epic is about to happen in the stock market in the weeks ahead. Watch for the break out, or break down. When price exits the triangle, either side, it will likely come back to back kiss the triangle trend line. At that time, keep in mind, as mentioned above, that it may be a fake-out move so the reaction from the back kiss will tell the tale. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AAPL Apple Monthly and Weekly Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Doji Candlestick; Upper Band Violation; Potential M Top; Upside Trend Petering Out; Multi-Month and Multi-Year Top is Likely on Tap in a Couple Months

Keystone has been posting the AAPL monthly chart watching the multi-month and multi-year top form. Remember from a month ago, the MACD line needs to roll over on the monthly for Keystone to officially call THE top in mighty Apple. It is so close you can taste it now. The weekly chart is toast. If you were thinking of selling AAPL, sell it this week right away.

The weekly chart prints a doji candlestick last week which hints that a trend change is on tap. Note the doji six weeks ago that called the top. Price tagged the upper band but has not yet come down to tag the middle band, also the 20-week MA, at 181 and rising, so it must be shown respect. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators. Apple is ready to get smacked hard in the weekly time frame. CEO Cook will be cooked and crispy-fried. The chart will likely receive a spankdown from the double-top, or M Top.

On the weekly, note the ADX that verified the strength of the upside move in price starting in March 2017 but in February of this year that strong trend is gone. The ADX is down to 17; there is no strong upside trend in Apple in the weekly time frame anymore; it is history. The brown circles show the distribution days occurring since last Fall. That is the smart money handing off Apple shares to the dumb money. The *ssholes you see on business television touting the greatness of Apple stock are actually selling their shares. Pump and dump. On tv they tell you how great it is so Joe Sucka jumps in to buy AAPL and these same pundits are distributing their shares to these bag-holding fools.

The weekly chart is nasty; run for your life if you are holding Apple long, otherwise you are a sap. Over the coming 2 to 4 weeks, AAPL will likely be sub 180 and probably lower. The lower band is at 161 which is another downside target for the weekly time frame say within a month.

On the monthly, look at that pesky MACD line that remains long and strong. This will provide more upside juice in the monthly time frame so a jog move is likely where price will be spanked lower for a week or few, as per the weekly chart, but then AAPL will likely come back up again in the monthly time frame and print THE multi-month and multi-year top in August-October. Keystone has to see that MACD line go neggie d before the official long-term top is in; it is extremely close.

On the monthly, all other indicators are negatively diverged. The red lines show an ominous rising wedge and the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The purple boxes for the ADX show that the collapse in price in 2008 into the start of 2009 was a very strong downside trend. Then the Fed saved the day March 2009 with QE1 to make sure the wealthy's money was protected in this crony capitalism financial system. The upsdie trend was very strong 2009 into early 2013 when it petered out. The strong uptrend in price was again verified by the ADX from late 2014 thru 2015 then petered out again. AAPL was not in a strong uptrend for 2016 and part of 2017 but the central bankers keep printing money and goosing stocks so Apple goes into another strong uptrend at the end of last year to present. Note, however, that the ADX is dead flat for this year. It would be expected to roll over to the downside going forward officially stabbing the strong upside trend in the heart and ending Apple's multi-year run.

The upper band was tagged on the monthly chart so price needs to come down to show the middle band at 157 respect in the monthly time frame, at a minimum. The lower band at 115 and rising is also on the table.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Most of you probably never realized that charts could supply such important information. AAPL is about to get spanked hard in the weekly time frame say the remainder of this month and for early and mid August. If you have enjoyed large profits, sell half your holdings now. Then you can sell the other half of your Apple say in September when price recovers due to the strong MACD line on the monthly chart. That will be THE top in Apple when the party is over.

These highs in AAPL will likely not be seen for months, a year or two, and probably for several years. Let the head cheerleaders of Apple stock, Warren Buffett and CNBC commentator Jim Cramer, hold the Apple bag going forward; do not follow their lead. They will be crying into their eggnog come Christmas. It will not be surprising to see AAPL at the 115-160 range at the end of the year. That will disappoint a lot of money managers.

Keystone does not have a position in AAPL right now but will likely short it beginning this week taking advantage of the sick weekly chart. Keystone will monitor the daily and 2-hour charts to time an entry for the short side. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BSE Sensex India Monthly Chart; Overbot; Ominous Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

India has been a favorite flavor of global traders for the last decade especially the last couple years running from 22K to nearly 37K, +68% in less than 30 months. Take the money off the table. The long-term rising wedge is ominous. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The last two years is also a rising wedge.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators. Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 32305 is on the table which is about -12% from the current price. 

India is about to have a religious experience over the coming months. The MACD line has a sliver of strength left in the near-term (for this year since it is a monthly chart), so some sideways stumbling may occur for a week or few and then likely a nasty correction is on the come. It would not be surprising to see the BSE Sensex at the 26K to 32K level at year-end. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

COPPER Weekly and Daily Charts; Copper in Correction

Copper is a big story over the last few days due to the six-week collapse in the red metal. If the global economy was healthy, this should not be happening. Dr Copper is laying on a gurney in the emergency room. On the weekly chart, the RSI, MACD line and histogram remain weak and bleak wnating to see more lower lows in the weekly time frame. Money flow is also weak and bleak over the last month although positively diverged on the year.

Price has violated the lower band for four consecutive weeks and desperately needs at least a dead-cat bounce. Stochastics are oversold agreeable to a bounce in the weekly time frame as well as the money flow.

The dead-cat bounce is reflected in the daily chart with positive divergence across all indicators as price came down to print the matching low on Friday. The Tweezer Bottom, lower band violation, possie d and oversold conditions create the bounce. SCCO, COPX and FCX are potential copper plays and Keystone took out speculative longs in SCCO and FCX for the very near term. This is a dangerous trade and if price reverses quickly, Keystone will ditch the trades.

The daily chart indicates that the middle band at 2.86 is on the table so copper may feel some further love to begin the week. However, the weekly chart remains sick and on the weekly basis, copper will likely roll over again, after the bounce in the daily time frame, and head downward to print matching or lower lows. The weekly chart hints that a firm bottom in copper is likely 2 to 3 weeks out. The 200-week MA support is at 2.62 so price may need to show respect to this important moving average before it bounces in the weekly time frame.

On the daily chart, note the purple arrows in late May highlighting the tight standard deviation bands. You knew a huge move was on tap but the tight bands do not predict direction. It turned out to be up with a huge rally that had global traders and strategists proclaiming a booming economy, but then copper crashes from that 3.30-ish level silencing these cheerleaders. A drop of -10% off the high is at 2.97 which occurs in late June representing a correction in play. A -20% drop is 2.64 which represents a bear market and as mentioned the 200-week is at 2.62 and Friday's low was 2.68 a tiny hair from a bear market. Copper may want to bottom in early August in this 2.58-2.68 area.

Keystone is looking for a further pop in copper on the daily basis and will ditch the SCCO and FCX trades if they receive a few percent in profits since the weekly chart forecasts more trouble ahead. The trades will also be exited if copper turns quickly south without wanting to come up to tag that middle band at 2.86. Copper will likely bottom in the weekly time frame in early August but copper bulls should be happy for this week ahead. You must remain nimble in these tricky erratic markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

The SPX 2-hour has been instrumental in predicting market sogginess but non-stop news bites create sideways choppiness for the candlesticks rather than a strong move south. Price violated the upper standard deviation band and came back to tag the middle band, which is also the 20 MA, and remains sticky at this 2805-ish number. Look at how the bands are tightening the most over the last month so a big move one way or the other is likely coming soon. Tight bands (pink arrows) predict a strong move but do not predict direction.

We watched the red lines display overbot conditions, the rising wedge pattern and negative divergence across all indicators so you knew stocks would sell off, and they did. However, the news bites and mixed signals from Chairman Powell and President Trump create another rally. Price tagged the middle band and bounced. There was no reason for price to bounce chart-wise; but news bites occur and have to be priced-in to the chart. The maroon lines then show a higher high in price with the SPX tagging the upper band, displaying overbot conditions, a rising wedge, and negative divergence across all the indicators so you knew price would be spanked back down, and it was.

Price tags the middle band and remains sticky there. The lower band at 2793 remains in play and the indicators are weak and bleak reinforcing this idea. The histogram, however, did not print a lower low as price printed the low so that may create a candlestick of joy. The other indicators, however, will likely create more downside in this 2-hour time frame (as long as a sound bite does not occur that cheerleads the markets).

The stochastics slip below 50% into bear territory but the RSI is not yet sub 50. Watch this closely since it will tell you if the downside has legs, or not. The price action remains erratic, choppy and somewhat unpredictable due to the constant news flow. Ther eis a big gap at 2810-2815 that will need filled at some point in the future but the edge has to be given to the bears for the hours ahead with the 2793 on the table. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Upward-Sloping Channel; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

The S&P 500 is getting jerked to and fro by the non-stop news bites. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to tout higher rates ahead but at the same time remains a closet dove. President Trump is commenting on monetary policy creating additional market angst. Stocks chop up and down exhibiting an upward bias in recent days.

The red lines show negative divergence in play. However, the short green lines for the MACD line and money flow indicate near-term strength. The market bears would have been better off to see the SPX make a matching high on Thursday which would predict a selloff but instead the jury remains out. Price did not come up to tag the upper standard deviation band, now way up at 2840 although it does not have to tag the upper band before pulling back.

Price does tag the upper rail of the upward-sloping green channel so a move to the lower rail at 2725-ish is on the table. The stochastic are overbot wanting a pullback but the RSI did not reach overbot conditions. It is a mixed picture.

The brown squares show extensive distribution days occurring; 13 distribution periods have occurred in the last couple months. This is the smart money handing off stocks to the dumb money. Each day the stock market pops, Joe Retail becomes excited and runs in to buy the stock market and the professional traders are very happy to pass their shares off to the sucka's. The smart money reduces their overall holdings in stocks as Joe becomes very excited buying the market since he saw a big up day the day before. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

On Thursday morning about one hour before the opening bell for the regular session, S&P futures are down about 10 points. VIX is currently trading at 12.70. You can use the VIX to gauge the strength of the downside move.

If stocks sell off but the VIX remains below the key 200-day MA at 14.25, the bears got nothing and stocks will rally off the lows and float higher. If stocks sell off and the VIX moves above 14.25 and remains above, the stock market will continues selling off and deteriorating.

The Keybot the Quant algo identifies the VIX 15.33 level as where the stock market will begin tumbling lower in earnest. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 3-Minute Chart; Chairman Powell's Closet Dovishness Creates Stock Market Rally

Stocks are chopping sideways at elevated levels after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's twice-yearly testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (Tuesday) and House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday). Stocks rally on Tuesday after Powell proclaims further gradual rate hikes ahead but is quick to say the path is data-dependent (he will stop the rate hikes at any sign of softness in the economy). Traders love to hear dovish Fed talk.

On Wednesday, Powell doubles down on his closet dovishness when he is asked about inflation and deflation. Powell leans dovish saying he is 'more worried about deflation'. Comically, he is hiking rates because the presumption is that he is worried about inflation. His dovishness means the Fed will remain accommodative so stocks rally as is the case since March 2009. The SPX pops 3 points in a few minutes and runs from 2808 to the HOD at 2817, 9 points, over the next hour. The central bankers are the market.

From Keystone the Scribe's daily chronology,

At 11 AM EST, Chairman Powell says markets are balanced between inflation and deflation. This is a surprising statement since Powell endorses the gradual rate hike path so he must believe in inflation. When pressed on the issue, Powell proclaims that he is “more worried about low inflation still.” Bingo. Powell flaps his dovish wings. He is hiking rates but remains more worried about disinflation and deflation. He will likely be quick to halt the rate rises if the economy falters. Stocks begin rallying immediately since the central bankers are the market.

The S&P 500 gains 2 points to 2812. INDU 25175. COMPQ 7839. RUT 1683. VIX 12.23. WTIC 68.09. Brent 72.21. Gold 1226.

At noon, the SPX is up 6 points, +0.2%, to 2815. The Dow gains 76 points to 25195. The Nasdaq Composite loses 4 points to 7851. The RUT is flat at 1688. VIX 11.93. A dovish Federal Reserves sends equities higher well off the day's lows.

The central bankers are the market. If you do not understand this simple fact, you cannot adequately prepare for what is coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence

The SPX was set up with universal negative divergence, overbot conditions and a rising wedge, as the bright red lines show, so a spankdown was expected, which occurs but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell rides in to save the day on Tuesday creating the Powell Rally. He talks up the economy and the gradual rate hike path ahead while at the same time providing a nudge, nudge, wink, wink, know-what-I-mean glance at the cameras willing to become dovish if needed (purple box). The central bankers are the market.

In addition, during OpEx week, a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high so professional traders were buying the Tuesday dip to ride it into hump day.

So price came up for a higher high which was not required or expected by the chart but charts can only price-in all information known up to the second. The Powell Rally created lift in stocks all day long. So price is at a higher high and the maroon lines show the same neggie d is in play. The expectation remains that the SPX should roll over from here. Powell speaks today in front of the House Financial Services Committee (yesterday was the Senate Banking Committee) but the testimony should be more of the same.

Price tagged the middle band on the last move down and is near the upper band at 2818 which has to be respected. The chart says down but the dip-buyers keep showing up with fistfuls of money. VIX is at 12.29 so the market bears need to see higher volatility to begin a catalyst to the downside. Keystone is holding index shorts looking for the downside to occur.  Keybot the Quant remains long. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Gold COT (Commitments of Trader) and Gold Weekly Charts; 200-Week MA Support Challenged

The red circles show tops in gold while the green circles sow the bottoms. The COT chart looks like the cross-section of a turbine motor; will the yellow metal accelerate higher or sputter and throw a blade?

The COT chart hints that the bars may expand outwards which would be in concert with gold rising. Price has violated the lower band on the weekly candlestick charts so a move higher to the middle band at 1306 is on the table. Note how price came down to test the 200-week MA at 1235-1236 and bounced. The 200 is now an extremely important support level for gold. The metal will be fine and should rally higher as long as the 200 is held. if the 200 is lost, gold may tumble into a boatload of trouble likely in concert with deflation and a recession.

The indicators are mixed. The stochastics are oversold and positively diverged wanting to see a bounce in this weekly time frame. The money flow is possie d over the 6-mth period. The RSI, MACD and histogram,however, are weak and bleak wanting to see a lower low in price after any bounce occurs. Thus, there is likely a month of sideways chop ahead for gold. Probably one week up, then then next back down again, then up for a week, then down for a week again, that may be enough time, say one month out where the RSI and MACD will be set up for possid d and a substantive bounce should occur.

If nimble, gold will likely pop in the coming days to honor the stochastics and money flow but then quickly roll over again, chop sideways for three to six weeks, and then perhaps set up nicely for a strong rally ahead.

The daily chart is setting up with possie d so gold is like a buy for the days ahead. Price will likely pop to 1260 and then perhaps roll back over to the downside to the current lows again say a week or two out.

The gold monthly chart trends sideways through the 1200-ish to 1375-ish range the last 2-1/2 years. Gold is down for the fourth month in a row currently. Gold simply appears to want to chop sideways into year-end. Keystone has no positions in gold currently but will maybe play long starting perhaps in 2 or 3 weeks. Gold will likely tag that middle band at 1306 at some point over the next month or so. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note: The COT chart is provided by COT Price Charts and annotated by Keystone.

Oil COT (Commitments of Traders) and WTIC Oil Weekly Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The red circles show oil tops and green circles are bottoms. The COT bars may squeeze back inwards going forward which would be in concert with a pullback in price. The orange line show the higher highs in price but the indicators are all negatively diverged (red lines). The neggie d wants to see a spankdown which occurs starting late last week creating the red candlestick on the right-hand side.

The upper standard deviation band was violated so price should tag the middle band at 67.31, and rising, going forward. That upward-sloping orange channel is in play with price retreating off the top rail perhaps headed to the lower trend line again at 65-67-ish.

That big up move in oil three and four weeks ago was due to tighter supply worries. The US will impose more sanctions against Iran prohibiting their production to come to market. Libya production went off line as well. OPEC threatened to turn the spigots on faster, but no one believes that den of thieves, and they increased production less than originally touted boosting prices.

Libya came back on line on Friday sinking prices. Iran can bring oil to market through back doors. There is lots of drama in the oil markets right now. US consumers are not happy seeing higher gasoline prices at the pumps which typically starves-off consumer spending. Sentiment becomes soggy as gasoline prices climb.

The monthly WTIC chart hints that prices will likely chop sideways at these elevated prices into the end of the year; say the 65-78 range. The 200-month MA is 66.41; as long as this support holds, oil has lots of upside ahead in the months and years ahead. If 66.41 fails, oil may go into free fall and collapse. This would be in concert with a deflationary scare and recession. Keystone does not hold any position in oil currently but may buy SCO (2x inverse oil) tomorrow and on weakness going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

Note: The COT chart is from our friends at COT Price Charts and annotated by Keystone.

XLF Financials ETF Daily Chart; Death Cross; Descending Triangle

The banks sink lower printing a death cross on the daily chart with the 50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA. The financials may bounce here as usually occurs when the death cross occurs, however, the banks will sink in the weeks ahead if the death cross remains in play.

The ominous red descending triangle is glaring. The banks are standing at the gallows with the nooses around their necks. If that 26.5 baseline fails, it will get ugly very fast; the trap-door would open. The vertical side of the triangle is 3.5 points so the failure at 26.5 would target the 23.0-23.5 area where the September support is at. The 50 and 200 at 27.40-27.48 serves as overhead resistance. The bulls will be happy and partying above 27.48 but will collapse and fall into a casket if they lose 26.5. The broad market will follow the banks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

GBPUSD British Pound Daily Chart; Death Cross

Here is the pound, or sterling, GBPUSD, daily chart showing the death cross a couple weeks ago (black circle). The pound is pounded. The currency pair number at 1.323 weakens as the pound weakens and weakens more as the US dollar rises. As always, price usually bounces when the death cross occurs and you can see that the pound is chopping sideways for the last month. Sterling will continue to weaken in the weeks ahead if the death cross remains in play. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

JPY/USD Yen Daily Chart; Death Cross

The yen weakens against the dollar creating a death cross. The 50-day MA stabs down through the 200-day MA on the JPYUSD daily chart. As always mentioned, usually price will bounce when the death cross occurs (yen strength) but the yen will weaken in the weeks ahead if the death cross remains in play. Japanese shareholders cheer a weak yen since it will pop their Nikkei and Topix indexes higher. The collapse in the yen the last few days corresponds to the NIKK jumping from  21500 to 22700, a big 1,200 points or +5.6% (last week the Nikkei Index gains nearly +4%). The Japanese are drinking sake and singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again" as the yen commits hari-kari.

Conversely, the dollar/yen (USDJPY) is in a golden cross with the pair up to 112.33 tagging the 112.80 level. A higher dollar/yen pair reflects the weakening yen. Think of high school math class and fractions; remember the numerator (top number) and denominator (bottom number). For the dollar/yen currency pair (the inverse of the chart above); when the denominator moves lower (weaker yen), the overall number for USDJPY moves higher (towards 113). When the denominator moves higher (stronger yen) the overall number moves lower towards 111.

The US dollar index chart, USD or DXY, dixie, shows the golden cross occurring in early June a month ago (stronger dollar). So the dollar/yen golden cross occurs now (stronger dollar weaker yen) along with the yen death cross shown in the chart above (weaker yen). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; 200-Day MA Failure Creates Stock Market Joy

As a previous chart highlighted, the bulls and bears were fighting over the 200-day MA, now at 14.21, which determines if the stock market is in a short-term bull or bear market pattern. Six days ago, on Friday, 7/6/18, the bulls punched the bears in the face with the VIX slipping below the 200. A back test of this critically important moving average would be expected and it occurs three days later.

The VIX comes up for the back kiss of the 200 (blue circle) and has to decide to bounce or die. It died. The bulls punch the bears squarely in the face, the bears fall backwards landing on the dirty linoleum floor and are out like a light. The VIX drops so stocks pop. The LOD Friday the 13th is 11.62 not seen since early June and late January. Market bears got nothing unless they push the VIX above 14.21. Bulls are cruising with their feet up on the dashboard as long as the VIX remains below 14.21. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Gaps

The SPX 2-hour is set up negatively. RSI and stoch's are overbot agreeable to a pull back. The rising wedge is bearish. The red lines show the neggie across all indicators so a near-term top is likely. Price has yet to show respect to the middle band at 2788 and rising after the upper band has been violated so that is on the table along with the lower band at 2769 and rising. There are a couple big gaps that need filled below. Keystone opened up short positions against the indexes on Friday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; 200-Day MA Cross Creates Stock Market Rally

As Keystone has mentioned many times over the years, the VIX 200-day MA cross is a key short-term stock market signal. Bears win above and bulls win below. Today, the VIX drops below the 200 and stocks took off like a rocket. Watch VIX 14.14 since it tells you which direction the stock market plans on moving.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is tracking VIX 15.89 (thick blue line) as the key bull-bear line in the sand. The stock market will tank above 15.89. Bulls are in great shape sub 15.89 and as seen today, stocks will rally as long as the VIX remains under 14.14. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips bullish at SPX 2738 late in the Thursday session. As always, more information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

ACM Aecom Technology 2-Hour Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation

ACM trends lower but the 2-hour chart is set up with possie d. Daily chart is positively diverged. Keystone bot ACM as a flyer. We shall see if it has any gusto for a quick pop, or not. Keep an ey eon the MACD line. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

Note Added 7/14/18 Saturday Morning: The series of long plays mentioned in this recent batch of charts SCCO, COPX, FCX, XLF, JPM, GS, AAL and ACM are all winners across the board +4% to +5%. Keystone entered and exited SCCO, COPX, AAL and ACM. Humorously, the copper plays (Southern Copper Miners and Freeport), AAL and ACM collapse again. You have to be very nimble in these markets. Playing the long side is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. SCCO and COPX still look good going forward so they are potential long plays again, perhaps see how the 2-hour charts look on Monday to look for an entry. Bank earnings continue so probably best to stay out of that drama. AAL looks good going forward; near-term there should be upside juice in that ole bird.

AAL American Airlines Daily Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation

Airlines have nosedived. Warren Buffett, supposedly the smartest investor, rides the tickers south. On the lower lows, AAL displays positive divergence. Price also violated the lower standard deviation band so a move to the middle band at 41-ish, and falling, is on the table. Keystone bot AAL. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

Note Added 7/14/18 Saturday Morning: The series of long plays mentioned in this recent batch of charts SCCO, COPX, FCX, XLF, JPM, GS, AAL and ACM are all winners across the board +4% to +5%. Keystone entered and exited SCCO, COPX, AAL and ACM. Humorously, the copper plays (Southern Copper Miners and Freeport), AAL and ACM collapse again. You have to be very nimble in these markets. Playing the long side is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. SCCO and COPX still look good going forward so they are potential long plays again, perhaps see how the 2-hour charts look on Monday to look for an entry. Bank earnings continue so probably best to stay out of that drama. AAL looks good going forward; near-term there should be upside juice in that ole bird.

XLF Financials ETF Daily Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation

The red descending triangle remains in plkay for the banks. XLF failed below the baseline signaling trouble ahead. Price has been back-kissing the base line area, and the 50-week MA at 26.94 for the last week or so. Watch 26.94 closely; it will tell you a lot about the banks.

The green lines show positive divergence in play so the banks should bounce in the daily time frame. The MACD ine has a sliver of weakness in the VST so this may create some sideways chop for the banks on Thursday and Friday but the possie d and oversold conditions should provide upside ahead. The lower band is violated so the middle band at 27.23, at a minimum, is on the table. That would be a nearly +3% bounce from the current price.

Keystone does not have any positions in the banks currently long or short but will probably buy JPM or GS, which are set up exactly like the XLF, for the bounce in this daily time frame. The trade will be all about timing since the weekly charts remain week. Banks should begin bouncing any day forward and rally for a few days but do not fall in love with the trade. Take whatever profits it brings and 'git outta Dodge' since weakness will likely reenter for the banks on the weekly basis due to the weak weekly charts. So you have copper and bank plays to consider on the long side for the days ahead as per the last two posts. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

Note Added 7/14/18 Saturday Morning: The series of long plays mentioned in this recent batch of charts SCCO, COPX, FCX, XLF, JPM, GS, AAL and ACM are all winners across the board +4% to +5%. Keystone entered and exited SCCO, COPX, AAL and ACM. Humorously, the copper plays (Southern Copper Miners and Freeport), AAL and ACM collapse again. You have to be very nimble in these markets. Playing the long side is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. SCCO and COPX still look good going forward so they are potential long plays again, perhaps see how the 2-hour charts look on Monday to look for an entry. Bank earnings continue so probably best to stay out of that drama. AAL looks good going forward; near-term there should be upside juice in that ole bird.

COPPER Daily Chart; One-Month Collapse; Death Cross; Oversold; Setting-Up with Positive Divergence

Copper has had a wild ride over the last month. First the wild spike higher as June began and then the historic collapse. If the global economy was healthy, copper would be above 3.30 running higher not at 2.90-ish. If you bring up a US dollar chart you can see how the dollar fell from late May into the first week of June (so copper rallies), then the USD trends higher ever since (sending copper lower). This correlation also occurs with the Chinese yuan that moves inverse to the dollar and in sync with copper.

The copper collapse is remarkable. Anyone catching the falling copper knife has bloody hands. The histogram, stochastics and money flow are positively diverged wanting price to bounce in this daily time frame. Ditto the oversold RSI, stochastics and money flow. The MACD line and RSI, however, are weak and bleak wanting another lower low in copper price after any day or two bounce occurs. There will likely be two jog moves (down-up), the first will turn the RSI into possie d and the second jog will likely turn the MACD into possie d and call the bottom on the daily chart.

Note that the death cross formed in May and the 50 came up to back kiss the 200 two weeks ago and failed again a very negative indication for the weeks ahead.

Thus, probably a one day bounce, then retreat the next day, then another bounce, then a retreat day and then the recovery should have more legs. Look at SCCO, COPX and FCX as potential copper plays for the pending bounce. The SCCO is set up with universal possie d on the daily and ready for its bounce now. Ditto COPX that appears ready to receive the possie d bounce on the daily chart. FCX is chopping sideways but once copper begins recovering, traders will be buying Freeport-McMoRan with both fists. Keystone has no positions in copper as yet but will likely play one of these on the long side going forward perhaps entering right now, then adding to the long position in a few days. Pay attention to the US dollar index since copper moves inversely to the buck.

Since SCCO and COPX are ready to rock and roll right now, copper may bounce right away and place its bottom quicker in this daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7/14/18 Saturday Morning: The series of long plays mentioned in this recent batch of charts SCCO, COPX, FCX, XLF, JPM, GS, AAL and ACM are all winners across the board +4% to +5%. Keystone entered and exited SCCO, COPX, AAL and ACM. Humorously, the copper plays (Southern Copper Miners and Freeport), AAL and ACM collapse again. You have to be very nimble in these markets. Playing the long side is like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. SCCO and COPX still look good going forward so they are potential long plays again, perhaps see how the 2-hour charts look on Monday to look for an entry. Bank earnings continue so probably best to stay out of that drama. AAL looks good going forward; near-term there should be upside juice in that ole bird.

June Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-06 is Available from Amazon

The June publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-06 is available from Amazon.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-07 for July is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 8/4/18.