NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Week MA at 15065 Dictates Cyclical Bull Versus Cyclical Bear Market

The NYA 40-week MA cross is a key metric for assessing cyclical stock market direction. It was first to indicate that the multi-month bear market was ending in November. The NYA moves above the 40-wk MA in the Fall signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. The SPX 12-month MA cross, however, the most important cyclical indicator, remained in a cyclical bear. Ditto the slope of the SPX 150-day MA a third metric. Thus, the US stock market has been in a choppy sloppy sideways malaise trying to pick a direction forward.

As March started, the NYA failed into a cyclical bear market pattern ahead so markets remain non-committal. This week, the NYA moves back above the 40-wk MA at 15065 a really big deal. Watch this closely since it tells you a lot about the direction of the US stock market going forward.

The SPX is above 4K having broken-out above the 12-mth MA at 3960 indicating a cyclical bull market ahead. The slope of the SPX 150-day MA is down so this metric signals a cyclical bear market ahead. The mixed bag continues. When the NYA 40-wk MA cross, SPX 12-mth MA cross and slope of the SPX 150-day MA all agree on the same cyclical direction, that will be the answer forward. At this minute, the NYA and SPX 12-mth are indicating cyclical bull but the SPX 150-day MA slope is saying cyclical bear.

NYA 15065 is an extremely important number. You can spend the day only watching this number and you will know more about what is happening in the stock market than someone studying a dozen other metrics. Bulls win big above NYA 15065. Bears win big below 15065. Every day that the NYA remains above the 40-wk MA is another day that says the bullish trend higher will continue for stocks. Bulls will be in trouble if NYA 15065 fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:46 AM EST: The orgy was so much fun yesterday that all the bulls show up again today for another wild upside orgy in stocks. NYA jumps to 15241. Bulls are cheering walking around with their chests puffed-out. SPX is up to 4054.

Note Added 10:14 AM EST: NYA 15197. Bulls throw confetti as bears try to find 132 points to the downside so they can bring negativity again. The drama continues.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/31/23, at 5:30 AM EST: NYA 15201. Bulls rejoice.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/4/23, at 7:55 AM EST: Bulls are drunk on Fed wine buying anything with a heartbeat. NYA 15488. New money flows into the market for Q2.

USD US Dollar Monthly and Weekly Charts; H&S; 2-Leg Bull Flag; Diamond Pattern; Expansion (Megaphone) Pattern

The weekly and monthly charts of the US dollar are bowls of spaghetti. On the weekly chart, price has been meandering sideways. The greenback drops to 102 but is not quite at or below the prior lows in January. Therefore, an assessment on potential positive divergence cannot be made until price comes down a bit further.

The chart indicators for the weekly chart are all sloping higher but again, it is not possie d as yet since price needs to make a lower low. Positive divergence means the chart indicators are positively sloped, sloping higher, while price makes another low. It tells you that the selling is exhausted and over and the index is instead loaded-up with fuel to rocket higher. This is not the case for the dollar, at least not yet. As price slumps, the RSI may print a lower low which means the dollar will likely remain soggy and drifting lower for another week or few. The RSI has not reached oversold territory so it has room to move lower and take price lower.

If the dollar comes down to 101 or one hundo, and those thin green lines become thick possie d lines, the dollar will rally going forward. This is likely not the case, however, due to the weakness on the monthly chart.

Staying with the weekly, the blue lines show a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. The neckline is at 102 so it is all on the line these days. The head is at 113 so the difference is 11. Thus, if the neck fails at 102, the downside target is 91 (102-11). That brown channel below at 90-93 would be a landing zone should the H&S play out.

The weekly chart does not give up its hand yet on what direction it prefers going forward. Price needs to decide if it wants to drift lower (to assess the potential possie d and a rally developing on the weekly basis, or, an H&S failure resulting in a collapse lower for the Almighty buck). A look at the longer-term monthly chart may provide hints on what will happen on the weekly basis.

The monthly chart is spaghetti. Grade-school teachers would smack Keystone's knuckles with a ruler and paddle him for not coloring within the lines; he never learned his lesson. The blue lines show the 2-leg bull flag playing out over the last decade. The first leg takes the dollar from 80 to 100, or 102 if you prefer as 2017 started. This is a 20 and 22-point run for dixie. Next occurs the sideways consolidation zone that lasts from 2015 through 2020. The second leg up begins at 90 so adding 20 and 22 are targets at 110 and 112 to satisfy the bull flag. These targets occur so it is a textbook pattern.

The blue lines also show a diamond pattern during the consolidation phase. Many technicians assume the diamond will result in a move lower out the back end but she can go either way. The distance of the diamond in the middle is about 18 points so adding that to the breakout at 92 is 110; achieved.

The monthly chart also show the maroon expansion pattern, or megaphone, in progress. The megaphone tells you that 80 may be on tap for the downside in the dollar.

Note the orange stars that highlight the overextended price way above the moving average ribbon. A mean reversion was needed and the 2017 pullback is 102 down to 88 as 2018 began. The current mean reversion takes price from 113 down to 102 thus far. Price went down to test the 200-week MA in 2018. If this fractal repeats, price will drop to 88.

As the dollar stumbles sideways for 3 months on the monthly chart with the new April candlestick starting on Monday, the short red lines for the indicators are clearly weak and bleak. Dollar bears cheer while dollar bulls scowl. The indicators tell you that lower lows in the dollar price are expected going forward on the monthly basis. The RSI may dip into bear territory below 50% which is obviously more bearish for the dollar. Check the monthly chart on Monday as the new candlestick begins to see how the indicators look.

Combining the analyses above, and sprinkling some magic voodoo dust on top, the expectation is for the H&S pattern to play out so the dollar will likely trend sideways to sideways lower for many weeks and months ahead. The debt ceiling deadline will become more important with each passing week over the next 3 months and will greatly impact the dollar, rates and the stock market.

Does a collapse of the United States dollar occur a la Venezuela? Is that the plan to usher in the new Federal Reserve's CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency)? India is currently introducing its own central bank-controlled digital coin. Governments want to track and control all transactions and eliminate cash. Fight the mark of the beast with all your might. Over the last few days, Brazil and China are shaking hands in a smokey back room striking a trade deal that agrees to move away from the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Communist China wants the world to trade in yuan and/or at least cause the demise of the US via the collapse of the dollar. Trillions of US dollars may be liquidated by governments and others in a very short time period if China has its way ushering in a Brave New World. Be very afraid. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/31/23, at 5:38 AM EST: The US dollar teases the 101-handle down to 101.75  yesterday now trading at 102.33. The drama at the H&S neckline at 102 continues. Price is deciding to bounce or die.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/4/23, at 7:53 AM EST: The US dollar drops to 101.79 continuing to tease the neckline and deciding to bounce or die. Price is making a matching low and the RSI remains possie d so the dollar bulls may be able to save the day if they send the dollar higher right away. The drama and potential H&S failure will be decided over the coming days. The tension mounts.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/5/23, at 5:41 AM EST: The US dollar drops to 101.70 and was down as low as 101.44. The battle at the H&S neckline at 102 continues. 

Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/13/23, at 8:31 PM EST: USD 100.952.

Note Added Friday Morning, 4/14/23, at 6:32 AM EST: USD drops to 100.88. The ominous H&S pattern is flexing its muscles. Euro 1.1065.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is an excellent short-term market signal. However, like many other metrics, price is bouncing around unwilling to tip its hand. The crosses are typically cleaner like the 3/7/23 turn to the bear side for the ST. Over the last week, price crosses the SPX 60-minute chart 200 EMA at 3977 several times unwilling to commit to one direction or the other. It is an epic sword battle.

The low put/call ratios signal complacency and a top likely any day forward. Utilities have failed placing the US stock market in a crash profile currently which obviously means doom and gloom ahead on a substantive basis.

This morning, S&P futures are up +38 so Happy Days Are Here Again. A rally for a day or few would likely set up a nice top from where a big drop will begin. At 3971 to start today, the SPX will likely pop above 4K and even 4010. This will set-up the need for a back kiss since this 200 EMA is a very important ST metric. When price comes back down for the back test of 3977 (after this morning's pop) and the critical bounce or die decision occurs today or a couple days forward, the story will be told and price may finally commit one way or the other.

SPX 3977 and 3960 (12-mth MA) are two extremely important price levels you must watch closely to gauge the strength of stocks. The 50-day MA at 4013-4014 is the last chance for the bears to hold the bulls back. If the SPX overtakes the 50-day MA, an upside orgy will be underway.

Bears need a firm rejection at the 50-day MA resistance at 4013-4014 to prove that they still got game and plan to growl loudly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:50 AM EST: The SPX pops to the 50-day MA at 4014 so the critical test of this resistance is underway. Watch NYA 15065 and price pops up through to 15085. This is a big deal and signals big upside ahead if it holds. Watch NYA 15065 and SPX 4014.

Note Added 9:54 AM EST: The SPX is at 4014. NYA is at 15079.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/30/23, at 6:30 AM EST: The SPX pops up through the 50-day MA resistance at 4014, that now becomes support, rallying to 4027. The NYA breaks above 15065 triggering the upside buying orgy. NYA 15065 tells you if the bulls have oomph going forward, or not. Back tests will be needed at SPX 4014, SPX 3977 and NYA 15065 where bounce or die decisions will occur.

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue languishing on the complacent side as the whipsaw choppy slop continues in the stock market. For the CPC, above 1.2 is where panic and fear is setting-in so that is when you want to nibble long. Below 0.8 is when the fearlessness and complacency are too high and you want to bring on shorts.

It has been a muddled bunch of chop suey lately. The low 0.94 represents continued complacency. The last real panic bottom was as the year began. Remember all the Wall Street big shots saying stocks would tank to begin the year and the opposite occurred? All the dimwits had to do is look at the CPC chart and see that the panic and fear was off the charts, confirming their worry, and that is the time to buy not sell. You run into the burning building while others are running away with their hair on fire. You gladly take their shares that they desperately want to get rid of but of course you tell them you must buy them cheap. Thanks, sucka.

Conversely, when everyone is complacent, like now (despite the idiot pundits professing fear and worry), you must lean-in on the short side because another big move lower is on the come. The drop a week ago was only one hundo SPX points and if you blinked you missed it. Dip-buyer's were foaming at the mouth to buy representing the ongoing complacency. It would be great to see the CPC drop further because then you know the top in the stock market is any day forward. It may be any day forward now and in fact the high 2 days ago may hold as a top.

The utilities are in failure mode placing the US stock market into a crash profile currently. The failure in the utes is bigtime predicting serious doom and gloom ahead so you must prepare for this coming mayhem. The bottom in the CPC last week hinted that the top may be at hand beginning some real ugliness but alas, stocks remain buoyant.

The SPX 2-hour chart stumbles sideways. It needs to set up with a little rally so negative divergence can set up and the top can be called. For now, the stock market keeps stumbling choppy sideways chewing up bulls and bears alike.

The moving averages are lining out sideways for the SPX so as a gauge of market direction and strength use the 50-day MA at 4014 to signal huge upside ahead and the 200-day MA at 3931 to signal the start of blood and carnage. The choppy slop and stock market noise continues through 3931-4014.

Remain leery of the stock market and stay nimble. It would be great to see a rally in stocks since that can set up the top and the start of the big drop that is likely coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 3984 but do not hold your breath since it may flip short today. The crazy year of choppy slop continues with Q1 almost in the bag.

Use VIX 21.05 as the stock market rudder. It is bullish now at 20.69 in real-time. Bears need VIX over 21.05 to start trouble. If the VIX remains below 21.05, and the SPX above 3960, the bulls will remain in control of the stock market. If the VIX moves above 21.05, and then the SPX loses 3960, there will be blood and carnage. Choose your poison.

Keybot the Quant

MJ Marijuana ETF 2-Hour Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence

Keystone likes the set-up with the pot stocks for the long side and is currently holding MJ, TLRY and ACB long. The next few days will be interesting since MJ displays positive divergence across all indicators (green lines) in the 2-hour, daily and weekly time frames. If pot stocks are going to rally after their long beating, it should begin now.

The green falling wedge pattern and the overbot stochastics are bullish. Price is extended below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher. The bottom band is violated so the middle band at 3.59 and upper band at 3.70 are on the table when/if she bounces.

There are lots of marijuana stocks to smoke, er, play. The pot plays are; TLRY, MJ, CRON, SNDL, ACB, VRNOF, TCNNF, GTBIF, IIPR, SMG, GRWG, CRLBF, GRWG, VFF, OGI, CURLF, CLVR and MAPS. You would have to look at the charts to see if they are set up with possie d and if so, across what time frames so you can plan a potential trade.

Perhaps there is one more positive in this arena, actually two more. Pot stocks are already beaten down hard. They have been rode hard and put away wet. Marijuana plays have been worked-over in the alleyway behind the dumpster and are now lying on the cold cement in garbage juice and an oil spot. If the broad market falls apart, the pot stocks may be hit less since they are already in Hades.

Second, the pot industry in the US is a cash business not involving the banks to a great extent so it is almost insulated from the bank trouble. Folks are going to keep smokin', er, vaping, their pot all day long in recessions or good times. Humorously, people will probably toke more weed in the coming recession, perhaps toking with a trucker out of Philly that is heading west from the Cumberland Gap. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly and Daily Charts; Battle for Cyclical Market Control Continues at the Critical 12-Mth MA at 3960

The drama continues with the critical SPX 12-month MA at 3960 which decides if the US stock market will remain in the 1-year cyclical bear market pattern, or, if a new cyclical bull market will begin above 3960.

Price is at 3949 so the bears are cheering and S&P futures have slumped-over to the downside now off -12 points. You know the drill by now. The 12-mth MA at 3960 is for all the marbles.

If price falls, watch the critical 10-mth MA at 3921-3924 that identifies the cliff-edge where traders take One Last Breath before collapsing into the abyss.

Bulls win big above 3960 that indicates buoyant stocks ahead. Bears win below 3960 and will create blood and carnage on Wall Street below 3921-3924. It's fun.

Use the important moving averages as support/resistance going forward to gauge the strength, or weakness, of the path ahead.

50-day MA 4014
200 EMA on the 60-minute 3980
20-wk MA 3976
50-wk MA 3966
100-day MA 3961
12-mth MA 3960 decides cyclical market direction
20-day MA 3955
Price is at 3949
200-day 3933
150-day MA 3924
10-mth MA 3922

The SPX daily chart is shown above with the moving averages lining out sideways along with price exhibiting the sideways symmetrical triangle development.  Yesterday's candlestick shadows clearly show the bulls and bears each exploring their limits. Bulls win big above 4014 since it is all clear skies above. Bears win below 3924 since there is nothing but darkness in the abyss. Between 3924 and 4014 is choppy sloppy noise.

Note the slope of the 150-day MA an important cyclical market signal. The 1-year cyclical bear market is on full display with the 150-day MA falling but in January, as stocks rallied, the 150 came to life heading higher indicating that a cyclical bull may be starting but alas, the pink 150-day MA line slumps-over and drops again, sloping lower, signaling that the 1-year cyclical bear market remains in place.

By definition, the SPX needs to be under the 150-day MA at 3924 to keep pulling the moving average lower guaranteeing bearish pain ahead.

Looking at the moving average S/R, you can see a cluster above at 3955-3966 so this is the gauntlet of overhead resistance the bulls must overcome. The cluster at 3922-3924 is the last gauntlet of support with Hades below. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:37 AM EST: Stocks are off and stumbling for an hour. The SPX falls at the opening bell testing 3933 support, and falls through so the test of 3922-3924 was next and it gives way. Dip-buyers cannot be deterred, however, so price quickly recovers and battles at the critical 3922-3924 S/R. Price is at 3936 so the the support below is holding. Copper remains buoyant so the bulls wear this feather proudly in their caps.

Note Added 11:24 AM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. Price falls through 3922-3924 support again now stumbling around at 3919. Blink your eyes and the SPX pops above 3924. The stock market battleground is obviously at 3922-3924 today.

Note Added 11:28 AM EST: SPX 3923.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/25/23, at 8:39 AM EST: The battle continued on Friday with the SPX busting up through 3960 at about 2:30 PM EST in the afternoon. Then a dip back below at 3 PM, but then back above 3960 for the closing bell. It is a broken record but the choppy slop continues this year. The bears could not gain downside traction because copper remains buoyant. Bulls could not run away to the upside because volatility remains bearish. Bulls win big if the SPX remains above 3960 and if the VIX drops below 21.08. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 21.08 and the SPX falls below 3960.

EDIT Editas Medicine Weekly Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence

Editas is an attractive long set-up. What's that, Sonny? Adidas? No, Editas. Is that a shoe? Nope. EDIT is set up with universal positive divergence across all indicators on the weekly, daily and 2-hour charts. It is loaded up with rocket fuel ready to launch. Will it catapult skyward or blow up on the pad? The oversold stochastics are agreeable to a rally ditto the falling green wedge pattern.

The bottom standard deviation band may be tagged at 6.87 so it can be given a little bit of rope before ditching it if it continues lower. The low in January was solid with universal possie d so it is surprising that she slumped over and put in lower lows in price; the January low would have been expected to hold. Maybe there was some negative news that hit it 7 weeks ago.

EDIT will be interesting to watch. Keystone bot it yesterday looking for the possie d launch to occur and may add going forward. It will be tough for longs to gain traction as the overall stock market remains directionless and choppy. Will EDIT be the medicine that the bullish doctor ordered or will it be Poison in the Well? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3936 but do not blink since the algorithm may whipsaw again today or tomorrow. 2023 is a choppy whipsaw mess thus far.

The critical SPX 3960 and VIX 21.06 are all that matter. Both create negativity yesterday. The VIX is trading at 21.73 early Friday morning on US East Coast so the bears remain happy. S&P futures are up +18 so the bulls cheer since this would send the SPX cash index back above the critical 3960. This year's chop suey whipsaw action continues. Whip it good.

Keybot the Quant

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Weekly Downtrend and Ongoing 50-Wk MA Failure Forecasts Major Trouble Ahead for Stock Market

The trouble with the utilities continues a harbinger of doom and gloom for the United States stock market. Utes are key as per Norm Fosback's technical work decades ago. As Keystone has explained many times, most recently with the 2/20/23 trap-door and 3/2/23 UTIL charts, the 50-wk MA and the weekly uptrend dictated by the closing price 15 weeks ago are the two key parameters. When they fail, the stock market will begin collapsing bigtime either coincidentally or within 2 months. Trouble, as Ray laments.

The 50-week MA is at 967 moving sideways lower. Price is down at the 909 palindrome a far way away from 967. The blue circle shows the closing price from 15 weeks ago and with price down at 909; the utilities are obviously in a weekly downtrend which is bad news for US stocks.

You can do the 15-week lookback comparisons on the chart to see that the weekly downtrend started 4 weeks ago. Thus, both utility parameters are negative for a month so the stock market is in prime shape to begin dropping a huge way. The utility negative signal is not for a run of the mill pullback in stocks. It is the big enchilada, the kahuna; it tells you that a really big move lower for stocks is at hand.

If you want to remain bullish and not lose your money during the weeks ahead, you desperately need UTIL to regain the two metrics above as fast as possible. The purple box shows that all the closing prices that will be used for the 15-week lookback and trend assessment are above 960. The 50-wk is 967 so take a big purple crayon and draw a thick line across the chart at 960-967. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste the best.

The chart indicators are mixed. The oversold and possie d stochastics create the rally in utes last week but the MACD and money flow remain weak and bleak preferring to see more soggy prices ahead.

The low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios verify the excessive complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. Traders, analysts, pundits and the shoeshine boy are all worried about stocks proclaiming fear but 10 minutes later they are buying stocks. This behavior jives with the utes and forecasts some serious gloom and doom ahead.

With Powell on tap, stocks may rally strongly which will create great opportunities to short into, or, Jerome may lay an egg today and begin the pending market turmoil. Bulls must focus on UTIL above 960 like a laser beam it is the only way they can save the day and prevent blood and carnage over the next few weeks.

The failure with utilities indicate that the SPX is going to fall a long ways from current levels for several weeks forward (hundreds of points lower). Keep your guard up. Be nimble my friend. Like water. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/23/23, a palindrome day, 32323, at 8:10 AM EST: UTIL collapses to 890. That's ugly. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/24/23, at 4:05 AM EST: UTIL collapses to 882 with a LOD at 877 not seen since last October 5 months ago. It's All Over Now Baby Blue.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side at the SPX 4004 palindrome late-day yesterday. Watch NYA 15065 and VIX 21.07 today as Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells everyone how to trade the markets.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 1-Year Cyclical Bear Market Is Tested at 12-Month MA at 3960

Happy St Patrick's Day a day when everyone is Irish. It is time to let that famous Irishman out of the backyard shed; Patt-i-o Furniture. Rim shot. Young folks will gulp down green beer to celebrate the day and vomit this evening. Tomorrow, a child will ask Mommy why the sidewalk is green.

Keystone's top stock market metric is the SPX 12-mth MA cross. If you had to go to a deserted island and could only take one indicator along to know what was going on, it would be the SPX 12-mth MA cross. The 1-year cyclical bear market is being tested.

As the previous SPX monthly chart explained, price attacked the key 10-mth MA in November. The cyclical bear continued growling in December but the bulls try another run at greatness in January. In February, the bulls are rejected and spanked down from the 12-month MA again.

In March, the SPX moves above the key 12-mth MA at 3959.92, call it 3960. Price is at 3960. This action may be telling you what the stock market will do for the rest of the year. Bulls win big above 3960 and a new cyclical bull market will begin.

Bears win big below 3960 and if the 10-mth MA at 3925 fails, it is all over but the crying since blood will once again flow on Wall Street. SPX 3960 tells you stock market direction going forward.

A back kiss of the 10-mth MA at 3925 is expected since it is such a critical number (many algorithms use these metrics) and that is when the important bounce or die decision will be made. SPX 3925 is where price is staring into the great abyss. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:01 AM EST: Banks remain weak and the SPX falls from 3960 and then tests the 3925, and fails. Price is at 3913 and should back kiss the 3925 from the underside to decide if it truly wants to fail.

Note Added 12:22 PM EST: It is munch time on the East Coast. The SPX comes up to back test 3925 at 11:16 AM and fails (a successful back test of resistance for the bears). A few minutes ago, price comes up again but stalls at 3922. The drama will probably continue into the weekend. The bears are flexing their muscles walking around with chins held high and chests puffed-out.

Note Added 12:28 PM EST: Whoa. The SPX pops to 3921. Now 3922. This may be the grand daddy test of 3925 for today; bounce or die.

Note Added 12:30 PM EST: The SPX is at 3923. The bulls are attacking the 10-mth MA at 3925. There's 3924...... Keystone needs a heart pill...... ba-boom!!! What the heck happened? Price explodes to 3931, now 3929....... these are strange days in the rigged casino stock market. The bulls know they must maintain 3925 as support or they will die.

Note Added 1:40 PM EST: The SPX is at 3925.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/21/23, at 5:45 AM EST: The SPX comes back up for the back kiss. Of course it does. The 12-month MA is at 3959.25 and the regular session begins with the SPX at 3952. S&P futures are up +18 so the bulls plan to take out the 12-mth today. Stocks are up 80% of the time the day or so leading into the Fed rate decision which is tomorrow. Interesting, the new moon peaks today and stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon. Traders and investors will be waiting for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High on Wednesday and tell everyone how to trade. Such is the crooked corrupt crony capitalism system on its last legs. The week will have to play out for the story to be told. Powell will control the direction of markets tomorrow. Wow. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios have fallen into the cellar. Any day forward, the stock market will begin dropping and the pullback will be substantive from 100 to 300 SPX points and probably a lot more. Obviously, moving forward, despite the bullish vibe, you want to exit longs and bring on shorts. Sometimes the tops can be stubborn on their timing but it will start any time over the next 10 trading days and likely within the next few days probably this week. Powel is of course a major potential pivot point that may be the catalyst to begin the blood and carnage. If he is not, and stocks rally on Wednesday, that will be a beautiful set-up to short into. It's gonna be a doozy when it hits boys, clear the decks, protect the women and children, bring in the airships. Some day this stock market is going to end.

SPX S&P 500 and BPSPX Bullish Percent Index Daily Charts

The BPSPX sinks below 30% verifying the market weakness and traders throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The BPSPX is on a double-whammy sell signal. It needs to move above 30 for a buy signal and then above 33 (a 6 percentage-point reversal) for a double-whammy buy signal. For now, the bears continue flexing their muscles but the turn may be at hand.

The green circles show the bottoms in the BPSPX below the 30% level that resulted in bottoms in the US stock market. Once again, the BPSPX falls below 30 down to 27 so you should start thinking about lightening up on shorts and nibbling on longs.

The chart indicators are positively diverged wanting to see a bounce higher (green lines) sans the MACD line that wants a jog move before the BPSPX price bottoms. That would be a bounce tomorrow, but then lower again on Friday for a lower low, and if the MACD line goes possie d, that should be the bottom for BPSPX.

Of course, markets are highly emotional right now due to the Fed inflation drama and the bank failures on US soil and in Europe. ECB chief Madame Lagarde will be the big attraction in the morning and tell the world how she plans on fixing the banks and world markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

KRE Regional Banks ETF Weekly Chart; H&S; Regional Banks Slapped by Contagion After Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank Failures

KRE, the regional banks ETF, is taking the pipe after the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures. America's crony capitalism system is under stress with the H&S (head and shoulders pattern) failing at the neckline last week.

The neck is at 57 and top of head at 77 so that is 20 difference. If the neckline at 57 fails, the downside target for the H&S pattern to play out is 37. Price drops to 42 so far.

The chart indicators on the KRE weekly chart remain weak so the expectation is that the 37-40 area will be visited in the days or couple-few weeks ahead. Price is in the neighborhood. If you see 42 lost, then 37-38 will be on the table as per Keystone's 80/20 Rule.

The US Housing Market has been in recession since Christmas. Interestingly, the regional banks write most of the US mortgages. It is like two drunks trying to hold each other up in Times Square on Saturday night. The housing market is sick because people are running out of money and their jobs are shaky so their house plans are on hold, while at the same time, someone ready to buy a home has to deal with banks under stress and may be seeing their bank of choice name dissed and plastered across a television screen. Housing Starts hit at 8:30 AM EST Thursday morning so be there or be square.

KRE will likely provide a buying opportunity going forward but for now it is a no-touch. If sub 40 occurs, and especially the 37-38 H&S target, that would be a better time to go sniffin' around the regionals for opportunities. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

EEM Emerging Markets ETF Daily Chart; EEM Round-Trips on the Year Thus Far Losing All Gains Returning to the Flatline

EEM, the Emerging Markets ETF, drops to where it began the year at 38. In January, traders were filled with wide-eyed optimism for emerging markets. Well, now they have buptkis. EEM is flat on the year testing critical support.

The purple lines show a H&S pattern in play that would target the October support. Head is 42.5, call the neckline 37.5 to make the math easy. That is a 5 difference so the downside target is 32.5, call it 32-34, if the 37.5 neckline fails.

The green lines show positive divergence at play. The falling green wedge is also bullish. The stochastics are flat and may dip negative but the other indicators are likely enough to create a bounce in the daily time frame. Price may want to back kiss the 200-day MA at 38.47 in the days ahead. However, the weekly chart is weak so the expectation would be for EEM to roll over and fail through the neckline on the multi-week basis ahead.

The gold circle shows the golden cross that formed after the October bottom. As Keystone always tells you, when a golden cross occurs, look for price to retreat, and it does. The 50-day MA is flat and the last 20 or more days are all prices below the 50 so it will be pulled lower going forward for a potential death cross in April or May (50 falling down through the 200).

If you own EEM long, you may want to consider selling on the potential pop during the days ahead and git out of Dodge. The biggest fool went long late January and is now holding the bag. Keystone does not hold EEM long or short and has not played it in a year or more. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SIVB Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group Weekly Chart Crashes into Insolvency

The United States and world remains concerned about fallout and potential contagion from the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Judging from the bikinis on the West Coast beaches, however, there appears to be plenty of demand for silicone.

On the serious side, you lost your shirt, and shoes, if long SIVB. There are lots of incompetent unqualified people in responsible positions these days creating terrible outcomes. SIVB drops from 287 to 100 last week a -65% crash and near -90% crash from the peak, and then it collapsed into nothingness. Officials shuttered the bank on Friday when SIVB was down to 40 in the pre-market.

President Biden, Treasury Secretary Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and television pundits are shouting from the rooftops, with arms waving frantically, yelling at people to not panic. Don't panic! Don't panic!

The Federal Reserve and US government step in as usual to save the day promising to make all depositors whole even if over the 250K limit. Such is America's dirtbag crony capitalism system that is collapsing under its own corrupt weight. Be glad that crony capitalism is in its final throes; it only serves to make the wealthy richer since they control the game.

Signature Bank also fails as global markets continue assessing contagion. A lot of smart people say there is no concern going forward but these are the same a-holes that never saw the Silicon Valley Bank problem developing even as the stock was in a steady downtrend for 16 months. The human corruption runs too deep to fix. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

US Unemployment Claims Weekly Chart; Claims Rise for 6 Weeks Hinting at Recession Ahead

The Unemployment Claims increased substantively on Thursday to 211K well above the 200K level a big 21K increase for the prior week that was unrevised at 190K claims. Analysts are quick to blame a surge in New York teachers claims but even taking away 15K would still be a 6K increase and continue to send the 4-week moving average higher.

The 4-week moving average is up to 197K claims per week from 193K per week for the prior week. The moving average is up for 6 weeks again signaling that a recession is on the come and likely approaching far faster than anyone realizes.

Considering the fits and starts, however, do the old metrics at predicting oncoming recessions still carry water? In this era of 14 years of Federal Reserve money printing (monetary stimulus) and 3 years of COVID-19 government spending (fiscal stimulus), no wonder the signals are mixed and switching back and forth. One thing is for certain, however, the free money from the government is pretty well spent.

Instead of preparing for the oncoming recession as young people should be doing right now (read this if you need a reality check on how a recession will change your life), the naïve dolts are buying boats, and fancy clothes, and gadgets, and costly dinners, and video games and posting their latest 'experience' on Facebook. Experience this. Young folks need to prepare for the oncoming recession especially since most of you have not experienced a hard couple-year recession in your life. A lot of you will grow-up over the next couple years.

Each week the 4-wk MA moves higher is another week that you come closer to receiving the call from the boss telling you to come back to his/her office where you will be sh*t-canned, told to pack-up, and get out of the building within 15 minutes. You will also need to hand in your badge and card so you can no longer enter the building. 'But boss, you said the company could not survive without me'. 'You little twit, that is what you tell all employees to squeeze more work out of them'.

The prior Claims chart from 3 weeks ago is linked here for further discussion and explanation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on Thursday Morning, /16/23, at 8:49 AM EST: Claims are 192K coming in less than expected but the 4-week MA remains at 197K claims per week. Next week's claims will either roll the 4-wk MA over to the downside making those not believing in recession happy, or, the moving average will resume the move higher after the flatness reinforcing the theme that the recession is coming. The mixed market signals continue. For next Thursday, 3/23/23, if claims are above 197K, the recession is on its way, if the claims fall below 197K, the recession will be delayed and the economy will be deemed okay.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Week MA at 15060 Dictates Cyclical Bull or Bear Market Going Forward

The NYA 40-week MA cross is a key cyclical market signal. In November the bull was on. This morning, the bears are stabbing at the critical 40-wk MA at 15060 and drawing blood. As this is typed price is trying to recover back above 15060.

This is all that matters today and going forward. Stock market bulls will be slaughtered if the NYA does not recover back above 15060 heading higher.

Bears will win big if the NYA remains below 15060; there will be nothing but carnage ahead. Sunday, Bloody Sunday. The drama will likely spill into next week when the inflation data drops. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:13 AM EST: The NYA pops to 15094, then dies back below 15060, now back above at 15080. The drama will continue. Whoopisies daisies, back below 15060.

Note Added 11:12 AM EST: The NYA pops to 15091 so the bulls are puffing their chests out again.

Note Added 11:44 AM EST: The NYA jumps to 15131 so the bulls are throwing confetti. Nothing to see here, move along, move along, nothing to see here. Bears know that this battle at 15060 is not done and will likely be revisited in the days ahead if not today again. 

Note Added 11:58 AM EST: The NYA dies, back below 15060, bears cheer.

Note Added 12:27 PM EST: NYA 14995.

Note Added 1:21 PM EST: NYA 14919.

Note Added 1:27 PM EST: NYA 14880.

Note Added 1:41 PM EST: NYA 14866.

Note Added 1:48 PM EST: NYA 14855. I've fallen and I can't get up..

Note Added Monday Morning, 3/13/23, at 5:11 AM EST: The NYA died on Friday to 14894, below 15060, watch 15060 today and it will tell you the story on the stock market.

YC2YR 2-10 Yield Curve Daily Chart; Inversion Drops to -110 Bips but Un-Inverts with Hook Pattern Signaling Recession Ahead

It has been interesting following the 2-10 yield curve watching for the hook pattern that will usher-in the US recession. Here is the first chart that shows the past recessions brought on by the hook. Then another chart showing fake-out moves. Then the prior 2-10 yield curve chart that was set up with a bottom with positive divergence but Pope Powell laid an egg promising higher rates forever.

That brings us to today with the US Monthly Jobs Report about to drop. The 2-year yield has dropped from a peak of 5.08% only a couple days ago to 4.82% as low as 4.76%. The 10-year yield is at 3.82% so the 2-10 spread recovers higher to -94 bips.

The jobs number drops and the 2-year yield drops below 4.70% to 4.69%. The 10-year yield is at 3.77% so the 2-10 spread moves higher to -92 bips. You can smell a whiff of recession in the air.

The green lines show positive divergence wanting the yield curve to move higher (become less negative). Ditto the Aroon where those that believe the yield curve will drop are almost 100% convinced it will drop further and those that do not believe it will drop are also convinced nearly 100% that it will move lower. This is a contrarian signal hinting that the bottom is likely in or extremely near for the yield curve (no one believes that he yield curve will move higher). The spread is also below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher and the lower standard deviation band is violated wanting the spread to move higher.

Time will tell. If the hook pattern continues higher (2-10 yield spread (yield curve) becomes less negative moving back up toward the zero inversion line), the US recession is a lot closer than anyone thinks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:18 AM EST: The 2-year yield is at 4.71% and 10-year at 3.78% for a 2-10 spread at -93 basis points.

Note Added 9:30 AM EST: The 2-year yield is at 4.69% and 10-year at 3.77% for a 2-10 spread at -92 basis points.

Note Added 9:34 AM EST: The 2-year yield is at 4.66% and 10-year at 3.75% for a 2-10 spread at -91 basis points.

Note Added 9:39 AM EST: The 2-year yield is at 4.61% and 10-year at 3.73% for a 2-10 SPREAD AT -88 BIPS. The hook expands higher telling the recession to step forward.

Note Added Monday Morning, 3/13/23, at 5:15 AM EST: The US yields plummet on the Silicon Valley Bank failure; 2-year 4.35%, 5-year 3.80%, 10-year 3.61%, 30-year 3.67%. The 2-10 SPREAD UN-INVERTS UP TO -74 BASIS POINTS. IN ONLY 3 DAYS, THE 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS OVER 70 BIPS THE MOST SINCE THE 1987 STOCK MARKET CRASH. THE 2-10 SPREAD HOOK PATTERN LAUNCHES HIGHER FROM -110 BIPS TO -74 BIPS SIGNALING THAT THE US RECESSION IS LIKELY CLOSER THAN ANYONE REALIZES. 

UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence

Remember the tight bands (pink arrows) on the 2-year yield chart? Tight bands tell you a big move is coming but they do not predict direction. Keystone was skeptical a couple weeks ago that up would be the resolution due to the negative divergence in play (red lines).

But alas, the Federal Reserve, led by Pope Powell, proclaims that the sky is the limit for rates going forward so the 2-year yield explodes higher out of the tight bands running up the top standard deviation band and now piercing above. Powell is pumping yields higher. The 2-year yield explodes higher to 5.05% testing 2006 highs.

Now that the bottleneck is clear, the chart remains in neggie d. The upper band is violated so a move back to the middle band at 4.44% is on the table going forward as well as the lower band at 3.96%. You may think that sounds ridiculous but it is not. If the stock market collapses, traders will be buying notes and bonds for perceived safety so price up means yields down.

Get to the point buddy, what's all this mumbo-jumbo mean? The 2-year yield should top out over the next week or two, in this area, perhaps 5.05%-5.17%, and then a multi-week downtrend in yields begins with 4.44% likely and 4.00% on the table. This will likely occur in concert with stocks collapsing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:30 AM EST: The 2-year yield drops to 4.98% back below 5%. If you bring up the daily chart, the MACD has some more gas although the chart in general is topping-out like the weekly chart above, so the top in yields is likely occurring over the coming days.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 7:14 AM EST: The US stock market collapses. The 2-year yield received the negative divergence spankdown in quick order losing 20 bips in a flash an unbelievable move. The 2-year yield is at 4.82%. The 10-year is at 3.85%. The 2-10 spread is at -97 bips becoming less inverted after the -110 basis point drop. A new hook pattern forms and heads higher for the 2-10 spread ushering in the US recession going forward, unless the yield curve becomes more inverted and drops below -110 bips which is already rare multi-decade lows.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 7:26 AM EST: The 2-year yield drops to 4.80%. The 10-year is at 3.84%. The 2-10 spread drops to -96 bips now un-inverting over 14 basis points from the -110 low. The hook pattern is alive and moving higher telling the US recession to get ready for its appearance.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 7:39 AM EST: The 2-year yield drops to 4.78%. The 10-year is at 3.83%. The 2-10 spread drops to -95 bips.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 8:00 AM EST: The 2-year yield drops to 4.76%. The 10-year is at 3.82%. The 2-10 spread drops to -94 bips.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 8:02 AM EST: The 2-year yield drops to 4.75%. The 10-year is at 3.82%. The 2-10 spread drops to -93 bips.

Note Added Monday Morning, 3/13/23, at 5:18 AM EST: The US yields plummet on the Silicon Valley Bank failure; 2-year 4.35%, 5-year 3.80%, 10-year 3.61%, 30-year 3.67%. The 2-10 SPREAD UN-INVERTS UP TO -74 BASIS POINTS. IN ONLY 3 DAYS, THE 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS OVER 70 BIPS THE MOST SINCE THE 1987 STOCK MARKET CRASH. THE 2-10 SPREAD HOOK PATTERN LAUNCHES HIGHER FROM -110 BIPS TO -74 BIPS SIGNALING THAT THE US RECESSION IS LIKELY CLOSER THAN ANYONE REALIZES. 

UST2Y 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Expansion Pattern (Megaphone) Ends; 5.05% Yield Comparing Back to 2006; 40-Year Bull Bond Market Ends with Pandemic

The 2-year yield jumps above 5% to 5.05% comparing back to the summer of 2006 when yield was at 5.17% with a high at 5.24%. This level, 5.00% to 5.24%, offers strong very long-term resistance (a ceiling for yield).

It would be reasonable to expect a back kiss down to the breakout trendline at 2.5%-ish. No one expects this to occur. If the stock market collapses, people will be buying notes and bonds for perceived safety driving yields lower.

It is a big deal that yield breaks out of the megaphone but it may face a few months or years of resistance at 5.24% until the big explosion higher in yields occurs.

A Gary Shilling deserves credit for calling the long-term bond bull market back in the 80's and 90's. Analysts scoffed at his call ridiculing his analysis but as the century changed over, Shilling was proven right; everyone else was wrong. Wall Street is a group of greedy lemmings. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:34 AM EST: The 2-year yield drops to 4.98% back below 5%. If you bring up the daily chart, the MACD has some more gas although the chart in general is topping-out like the weekly chart above, so the near-term top in yields is likely occurring over the coming days. 

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 7:18 AM EST: The US stock market collapses. The 2-year yield received the negative divergence spankdown in quick order losing 20 bips in a flash an unbelievable move. The 2-year yield is at 4.82%. The 10-year is at 3.85%. The 2-10 spread is at -97 bips becoming less inverted after the -110 basis point drop. A new hook pattern forms and heads higher for the 2-10 spread ushering in the US recession going forward, unless the yield curve becomes more inverted and drops below -110 bips which is already rare multi-decade lows.

Note Added Monday Morning, 3/13/23, at 5:21 AM EST: The US yields plummet on the Silicon Valley Bank failure; 2-year 4.35%, 5-year 3.80%, 10-year 3.61%, 30-year 3.67%. The 2-10 SPREAD UN-INVERTS UP TO -74 BASIS POINTS. IN ONLY 3 DAYS, THE 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS OVER 70 BIPS THE MOST SINCE THE 1987 STOCK MARKET CRASH. THE 2-10 SPREAD HOOK PATTERN LAUNCHES HIGHER FROM -110 BIPS TO -74 BIPS SIGNALING THAT THE US RECESSION IS LIKELY CLOSER THAN ANYONE REALIZES. 

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Bull/Bear Battle Continues at the Critical 12-Month MA at 3962

The stage is set. It is time to separate the men from the boys. The SPX is testing the 12-month MA at 3962 which decides if the US stock market remains in a cyclical bear market going forward, or, if stocks begin a new cyclical bull market.

As 2022 started, the 10-mth MA failed and it served as an early warning system that something is going wrong with the stock market. The 12-mth fails in early 2022 and it was lights out, the party is over.

The cyclical bear market continues but the bulls have a legitimate chance to right the long ship. In November, the bulls attacked the 10-mth MA that is now below the 12-mth since it follows price more closely. The bulls were rejected handily from the 10 and 12-mth MA's in December receiving coal in their stockings.

The bulls again try to create a cyclical bull market and close above the 12-mth MA in January only to give up the ghost again in February. The bull/bear battle at the 12-month MA at 3962 continues. It is the Gettysburg of markets and instead of the blue versus the gray (union (North) versus confederate (South), respectively), it is the bulls versus the bears.

It is all on the line at 3962 and this dictates the path forward for the year. Obviously, this is not your run of the mill back kiss. It is for all the marbles. Bulls win big if they bounce off 3962 support and trend higher. A big rally will follow.

Bears win big if price collapses through 3962. Armageddon for stocks begins if/when the SPX loses the 10-month MA at 3928. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain low and complacent so the bears have the upper hand to create something ugly going forward.

Note that price already came down this month, and last, to tap on the 10-month support and the back tests are successful for the bulls so they are hopeful for the optimistic outcome. If 3962 is lost, there will be another test of 3928 where the bulls will have one last chance to stop the developing carnage. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:26 AM EST: The SPX gaps higher to 4018 and then drops to 3997 now sputtering sideways at 4000. It is likely all noise until the US Monthly Jobs Report drops at 8:30 AM EST only 22 hours away.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 7:20 AM EST: The US stock market collapses. The SPX plummets -1.9% to 3918 losing the 12-mth MA at 3957-3960 and 10-mth MA at 3921. Back tests are likely needed going forward. More choppy slop is likely with the US Monthly Jobs Report dropping in an hour and inflation data next week. The 2-year yield received the negative divergence spankdown in quick order losing 20 bips in a flash an unbelievable move. The 2-year yield is at 4.82%. The 10-year is at 3.85%. The 2-10 spread is at -97 bips becoming less inverted after the -110 basis point drop. A new hook pattern forms and heads higher for the 2-10 spread ushering in the US recession going forward, unless the yield curve becomes more inverted and drops below -110 bips which is already rare multi-decade lows.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Stocks Trading Choppy Sideways With US Debt Ceiling Deadline Looming; Bulls and Bears Battle for Cyclical Market Control; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

The US stock market remains choppy slop. Since October, the SPX oscillates between 3800 and 4200 a 400-point range. The chart indicators are lining out sideways. Ditto the moving averages with the 150-day and 200-day MA's flatter than a newlywed's souffle.

Price is at 3992 testing the 50-day MA at 3998 choosing to bounce or die. S&P futures are negative so it must like the idea of dying. Why are the markets choppy slop this year?

The US hit its debt ceiling in January and can still pay its debts using other measures into June. Most agree that the start of Q3 (July) is when the sh*t hits the fan. The debt ceiling drama will likely be decided in the June-August time frame. The first few days of August 2011 were ugly as a similar drama played out. Will it be another early August redux (stocks collapse)?

The corrupt lawmakers will wait to the last minute to talk so things will heat up in June and accelerate markedly in July. Is this the reason for the choppy sloppy action this year? Markets are directionless staggering sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night.

The case can be made with the blue lines that the stock market may simply chop inside that sideways symmetrical triangle pattern until the verdict on the debt ceiling is provided. There are always trading opportunities so the buys and sells may occur going forward as price hits the top and bottom rails of the triangle making its way to the big crescendo when the poor excuse for humans in Washington, DC, make a decision on the debt limit.

The vertical side of the triangle, should it develop and play out, is about 800 points (thick blue line), so the upside breakout targets 4800 and higher while the collapse out the bottom of the triangle would target 3200 and lower. There is lots of excitement ahead.

Keystone uses three key metrics to assess the cyclical bull and bear markets. The NYA 40-week MA cross remains bullish the first metric to flip to a cyclical bull a few weeks ago. The SPX 12-month MA cross is the most important metric and it is at 3962. The SPX price is at 3992 (exactly in the middle of the 3800-4200 range) only 30 points above and S&P futures are negative. It looks like a test of the critical 12-month MA at 3962 is on tap today where price will bounce or die. It will have serious implications on the stock market going forward.

The third metric for assessing the market cyclicality is the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. The chart shows the cyclical bull market continuing in 2021 into the top as 2022 began. The slope of the 150-day MA (pink) then went negative marking the start of the cyclical bear market. The NYA 40-wk MA cross and SPX 12-mth MA cross were in full negative agreement and the cyclical bear market thrived in 2022.

2023 is a more jumbled story. The bulls are trying to wrestle back control but the bloody battle continues. If you go to a shorter time frame for the chart above you will see the 150-day MA sloping back down again identifying a cyclical bear market but this and the 12-mth metric are in flux. The benny of the doubt has to be given to the cyclical bear market until clearly proven otherwise. All three metrics must agree and be firmly committed one way or the other to make the cyclical call.

The US stock market is trying to extricate itself from the cyclical bear market but it is not yet successful. The drama continues. Watch the SPX 3962 bull/bear line in the sand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/10/23, at 7:25 AM EST: The US stock market collapses. The SPX plummets -1.9% to 3918 losing the 12-mth MA at 3957-3960 and 10-mth MA at 3921. Back tests are likely needed going forward. More choppy slop is likely with the US Monthly Jobs Report dropping in an hour and inflation data next week. The 2-year yield received the negative divergence spankdown in quick order losing 20 bips in a flash an unbelievable move. The 2-year yield is at 4.82%. The 10-year is at 3.85%. The 2-10 spread is at -97 bips becoming less inverted after the -110 basis point drop. A new hook pattern forms and heads higher for the 2-10 spread ushering in the US recession going forward, unless the yield curve becomes more inverted and drops below -110 bips which is already rare multi-decade lows.