By K E Stone
Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, released
from the Wuhan laboratories, has infected 15.7 million people around the world
murdering 637K souls. 9.5 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease,
President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 4.2 million
Americans (1.3% of the 330 million US population) murdering over 147K United
States citizens. 2.0 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the
world’s population but has one-quarter (27%) of the coronavirus cases and
one-quarter (23%) of the deaths. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes
against humanity.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Mexico, Chile,
Spain, UK, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Italy. South Africa moves higher on
the list. Mexico also moves one spot higher and struggles to contain the virus.
The outbreaks in the US, Brazil, India (South Asia), South Africa, Peru, Chile,
Mexico and the Middle East continue spinning out of control.
Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are dealing with a second
wave of coronavirus. Australia is in the southern hemisphere experiencing
wintertime as the northern hemisphere enjoys summertime. The coronavirus is
expected to make a nasty reappearance as the weather cools and the Aussie’s are
living this now.
The Australia daily new cases chart above clearly shows the
second wave progression. The land down under did a great job handling the first
wave. The peak new case days were 3/22/20 and 3/29/20 and the peak in the
active cases chart (not shown), which identifies the maximum strain on the
healthcare system, occurred on 4/4/20. It was impressive to see the active
cases bell curve peak and quickly roll over in April. Can the Aussie’s do it
again? Australia, Hong Kong and Japan will serve as test cases for the second
wave of coronavirus. Other countries will be watching and learning.
Unfortunately, the mainland Chinese communists are putting
the screws to Hong Kong so the usefulness of the virus data for that region may
be limited. Hong Kong’s new cases are spiking wildly higher overtaking the
3/29/20 new case high from the first wave. The new case numbers are
significantly higher than the first wave while the Australia new case chart
above shows new cases about on par with the first wave, so far. Ditto with
Japan’s new cases now matching the highs from April. The filthy Beijing commie
leadership, led by Dictator Xi, may be releasing more virus in Hong Kong; you
never know. Never trust a communist.
Japan’s active cases chart peaked 13 days after the peak in
new cases. Thus, if 7/23/20 remains the peak in new cases right now, the top in
active cases may occur on 8/5/20. The death charts for Australia and Hong Kong
ramp higher although keep in mind that Hong Kong has only 16 virus deaths and
Australia 130 during the pandemic. Japan’s death chart is flattish at about
1,000 deaths. It will be interesting to see how these three nations battle the
COVID-19 second wave.
India is another nation that is hit hard currently. The
daily new cases, active cases and death charts are going parabolic (vertical).
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls. India’s active cases bell curve would
not be expected to flatten out and roll over until late August and this is if
the daily new cases immediately stop increasing. India’s healthcare workers and
medical equipment will be under peak stress during the entire month of August.
India is going to need help from the United States and others. Good luck India.
The United States remains a coronavirus soap opera with an
odd entanglement of politics and science mixed with chaos, crises, confusion,
disinformation and disorganization. The pace of news these days is outrageous;
the quickening of modern society. Coronavirus hospitalizations are rising in 41
of the 50 states.
The US had only 15 total coronavirus cases on 2/15/20. Then
75 cases on 3/1/20. Then over 1,000 cases on 3/10/20. Then over 5K total cases
on 3/16/20. Then 56K on 3/24/20. The acceleration of the spread of the virus is
scary. There are over 100,000 total cases on 3/27/20. Over 221K people are infected on 4/1/20.
During March, the US total cases ran from 75 people to 221,000.
On 4/27/20, America is over 1 million total cases. The first
US case was identified in the state of Washington on 1/21/20. Thus, the US went
from 1 case to 1 million cases in only 96 days. That is scary that a bug can
travel that fast but it gets worse. On 6/7/20, there are over 2 million total
cases. On 7/6/20, there are 3 million cases. On 7/21/20, there are over 4
million cases. Thus, it took America 96 days to reach 1 million total cases and
then only 41 days to reach 2 million. Then only 29 days to hit 3 million and
then only 15 days to tag 4 million total cases. The US went from 1 case to over
4 million total cases in only 181 days; a half-year, 26 weeks.
Considering the long ongoing learning curve with COVID-19,
President Trump is probably doing about as good a job as anyone else could do
although he does have a notable losing streak of decisions. Trump’s smartest
decision was the travel ban against China in late January but it was not
enforced to any great extent so people leaked through and the virus lands in
the US via Asia and Europe anyway. The big error the president made was thinking
that the problem was solved once he made the travel ban.
March was a crazy month with the lockdown and massive
layoffs and the economic collapse. An all hands on deck approach took place
during March and April and Americans did their part to keep the virus at bay so
as not to impose an emergency burden on the healthcare system (this is why the
active cases bell curve charts are key; the curve must flatten and roll over on
this chart to show that the worst is over for the medical system).
Unfortunately, Americans became too impatient and instead of holding on in
isolation for another couple weeks to snuff-out the virus, people ran to the
beach, and parties, and campaign rallies, and protests, coughing on each other,
during May and early June creating today’s trouble.
The mistake that Dr Fauci made during March was telling
people that masks do not help so it is not necessary to run out and hoard
masks. Fauci said this because America was not prepared for the pandemic with
PPE (personal protective equipment) and he wanted the masks to go to the
healthcare workers. That is a noble goal but why not just be honest with the American
people?
What a poor opinion the US government has on its citizens
that their decision was to lie to the American people about masks instead of
simply telling the truth. Americans would not have hoarded masks. Sure, you
will have opportunists, but it would have been far better to level with people
and tell them that the medical personnel need the equipment. After a few weeks,
the leaders did come clean but by then the damage is done. Mistrust appears
from the beginning and is hard to rectify. If the government does not trust its
own people, do not look for the people to trust the government. People are
stressed-out from the uncertainty and confusion.
Trump reduced and/or eliminated folks involved with pandemic
preparation during one of his executive order signings. He is equally at fault
as is President Obama over inadequate supplies. Trump likes to say the
“cupboard was bare” but this is a lie, which seems to be a routine daily thing
for Donnie. There were plenty of supplies, even 19K ventilators, but not
enough. Supplies have shelf life’s and inventory needs rotated so Trump should
have been involved with pandemic preparation during his presidency but he was
not. That is a mistake on his part.
Within the United States, both the new cases and active
cases ramp higher over the last couple weeks. The greatest number of total
COVID-19 cases are in New York followed by California, Florida, Texas, New
Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, North
Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, South
Carolina, Alabama, Indiana, Washington, Minnesota, Connecticut, Mississippi and
Wisconsin. Georgia leapfrogs Arizona. Tennessee and Virginia move higher on the
list. All 25 states are quickly approaching or well over 50,000 total cases. New
York is at 437K total cases. New York, California, Florida and Texas are
quickly approaching or over 400K total cases; the four worst states. All four
are coastal states which receive the airline and ship traffic from other nations
so it makes sense that they are hit hard.
Tragically, nursing homes, meat-packing facilities, cruise
ships, prisons, adult and child camps, water and amusement parks, the US
military and VA facilities are hit exceptionally hard by the virus. The Navajo
Nation (Native Americans), Latinos and blacks are hit proportionally harder by
the virus.
President Trump finally reverses course after a couple
months of virus denial. Comically, King Donnie and Prince Pence were the
Baghdad Bob’s of the coronavirus saga proclaiming that the worst is over and
all is fine when in view behind them, doctors and nurses are pushing
coronavirus patients on gurneys. The president performs an about-face now
touting the use of face masks, even tweeting a picture of himself wearing a
mask, with his cute little presidential seal sewn into the side, after many
weeks of refusing to wear a mask and downplaying their effectiveness. The
president also announces plans to restart the coronavirus press conferences
that ended in late April.
Trump is changing direction due to his weakening poll
numbers. He also shook-up and adjusted his campaign staff. Trump was
embarrassed at the Tulsa rally duped into believing that hundreds of thousands
of people wanted to see him there. A second stage was erected and big plans
made but as it turns out, young folks across America signed up for the event
with zero intent of showing up. The social internet and tech guru Parscale was
demoted by Trump for becoming super excited about the massive interest he was
seeing with the president’s rally not knowing that the people signing up were
doing it as a joke. Parscale continues wiping egg off his face.
The prior coronavirus press conferences ended in late April.
Trump became a laughing stock repeating the same statements over and over at
the pressers. He bragged about producing and supplying ventilators every 10
minutes. The pressers turned into campaign speeches. Trump’s handlers convinced
him to nix the press conferences as poll numbers dropped.
The November 3 presidential election (US elections are
always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in the month of November) is
only 102 days away; 14 weeks. Republican President “King Donnie” Trump seeks
reelection, another 4-year term, and must defeat the democrat challenger,
former Vice President “Sleepy Joe” Biden. Donnie cranks up the virus press
conferences since he plans to sneak in campaign stuff along the way; after all,
he owns the bully pulpit.
The US presidential election is billed as the most important
election in history. It’s really not. Americans will simply be choosing which
silver-haired white guy oversees the ongoing collapse of the crony capitalism
system. It will likely not make much difference who is in the top job going
forward. The US will likely experience a multi-year transition into a
Nordic-style model of socialism and capitalism that will once again provide
opportunities for the huddled masses especially with removing the healthcare
burden.
America’s wealthy privileged class used the rigged crony
capitalism system to enrich themselves while destroying the middle class
starting when President Ronnie Ray-gun won election in 1980. Reagan busted the
unions and opened the door for the huddled masses to work hard each day forward
for peanuts. The sinking middle class was told that the benefit to losing some
jobs is all the cheap stuff available at Wal-Mart (products from China).
Americans cheered for the low prices which would stretch the family budget. The
dolts did not realize that eventually every industry would succumb to global
competition one by one starting with textiles, steel, autos, etc..
Americans lost their high-paying middle-class jobs from the
1980’s to present day replaced by overseas slave labor. The US politicians and
corporate executives applaud the destruction of the middle class since they
could shove millions, even billions, of dollars in their pockets due to stock
price appreciation. The big box retail stores with cheap China prices led to
the closure of local Ma and Pa stores. Jobs and a community’s identity are
thrown into the garbage can along with the cat litter. Americans happily shot
themselves in the face with a lead-filled Chinese pistol.
Workers unimpaired by jobs moving overseas wanted the lower
prices at Wal-Mart but as the industries were picked off one by one, like a
frog boiling slowly, these workers lost their high-paying middle class jobs as
well and when they looked around for help no one was there. Over the last few
decades as the US middle class was sold down the river, the wealthy elite
privileged class amassed great wealth creating the New Gilded Age. America’s
crony capitalism system dies from greed, corruption and non-transparency.
The reason that the US is falling into social unrest and
violence is that a middle class no longer exists; it was the glue and fabric
that used to hold the nation together. The middle class was the steadying force
that helped resolve political and societal disputes on common ground. Nowadays,
since the Great Recession, millions of people no longer have anything else to
lose; they already lost it all. Some men have turned to alcoholism ashamed they
cannot provide for their families. Spouse and child abuse rises in recent
years. Bad things happen when the population gives up hope. Some will become
desperate. Desperate people do desperate things.
On Tuesday evening, 7/21/20, Washington, DC, is a buzz about
the first virus press conference. The door opens and Trump is not wearing a
face mask as he takes the stage and begins talking. Trump attended a fund
raising event as well and did not wear a face mask. The president is trying to
change his ways and promote the use of face coverings but he is already
reverting to his old ways. He says he is tested daily so he does not need to
wear a mask. As usual, people are left confused. It’s another day of amateur
hour.
Hours earlier, the press spokeswoman for Trump said the
president is tested for the virus every day and sometimes multiple times per
day. Comically, Trump says he is tested every two or three days but can never
recall being tested multiple times in one day which identifies his spokesperson
as a liar. She was just making stuff up that she was telling to the press. Even
funnier, Trump said last week he is tested daily but now he says ever couple
days; he is simply making stuff up. People are becoming concerned about the
Trumpster since the confusing and contradictory statements each day create
confusion and uncertainty, which creates fear and angst, and stress.
Trump begins speaking and the new press conferences are sounding
a lot like the old ones. The president says the cupboard was bare of supplies
that he had to replenish. This has been fact-checked as a lie. There were about
19K ventilators in supply from President Obama’s term. Trump cut the pandemic
department during one of his ceremony executive order signings. Items, such as
the masks, should be turned over inventory-wise (shelf-life) every four to five
years. Trump should have been addressing those supplies during his presidency
not once an event occurs; he has to accept blame, which he will not.
Trump begins talking about the ventilators again. Oh vey.
The president brags, “We have tremendous amounts of supplies” and can ship
quickly. The question is why haven’t you? Hospitals in the south are
complaining about PPE shortages so send the stuff out. This is why Americans
are hopelessly confused. News reports interview personnel that say they need
certain supplies but King Donnie says everyone has plenty and besides they can
give anyone what they want. It is all the same old crap occurring. Trump says
all the states have their needs met but it is not true.
President Trump provides statistics on the virus but falls
short again. Where’s the Power Point bullet points so the numbers can register
in people’s heads? Where’s the whiteboard or charts on an easel? Donnie has
buptkis. Comically, he says in future press conferences he will have charts and
so forth. It must have been too much effort to take five minutes to make a few
slides in Power Point. His son Barron could have produced a slideshow for him. Trump
rattles off the statistics but they go in one ear and out the other.
Trump admits that the coronavirus outbreak “will get worse
before it gets better.” Finally, some honesty which will help people’s
perception of the orange-head. He says, “We have a relentless focus.” Trump
brags about testing again and says America has higher case numbers than other
nations but that is because we perform more testing. Not true. Comparing the
numbers on a common basis does not show that America’s testing program is
superior to all others. In fact, the testing and trace program failed as
evidenced by the outbreak across the south and west.
Trump says 7,000 national guard troops and healthcare
workers are available to assist any state that needs help. He says when the
vaccine is available, a general will be in charge of distributing it across the
United States as fast as possible. There sure is a lot of military involvement
in things nowadays and considering that Federal agents can now detain Americans
off the street without probable cause or due process, shoving them into
unmarked vans and driving away to unknown locations (Portland), the United
States is looking a lot like China and Russia.
The press conference is odd since there are no doctors on
stage providing information. Fauci, redfield and Birx are all MIA. Dr Fauci
says he was not invited so the baby games between Fauci and Trump continue. The
president says Dr Birx is on the other side of the door which is very funny if
you think about it. CNN does not broadcast the press conference until the
Q&A begins. FoxNews covers the entire presser.
Trump brags about the stock market rally and proclaims that
stocks rise big again today. Wrongo. The Dow is up but the S&P 500, which
is the US stock market, is flat and the Nasdaq stock indexes are negative. Our
Donnie always plays fast and loose with the facts like all the rest of the
politicians on both sides of the aisle. Trump concludes the press conference
after about 40 minutes and says he plans on talking about other subjects at the
pressers such as immigration and the economy. So much for the new virus press
conferences that will now morph into campaign speeches like the old ones.
America is operating at a high level of dysfunction these days.
On Wednesday, 7/22/20, the US announces the closure of the
Chinese embassy in Houston, Texas. China warns of retaliation. The stock market
dips on the deteriorating US-China relationship. President Trump holds another
press conference.
On Thursday, 7/23/20, recent economic data is deteriorating.
The weekly Unemployment Claims data is released at its regular time at 8:30 AM
EST and Claims are up a big 1.4 million the first bump higher since the March
swoon. Anecdotally, this one data point indicates a sluggish economy ahead with
more layoffs on tap. Last week was 1.3 million Claims. There are also more
people that worked the gig-type jobs applying for the special Pandemic
Unemployment Assistance funds. The four-month trend of declining Claims ends.
Over 52.6 million people filed for unemployment assistance during the last 18
weeks and over 20 million remain unemployed.
The republican-controlled Senate, led by Majority Leader
McConnell, is having difficulty agreeing on a path forward with the new
stimulus bill. The democrat-controlled House wants $3 trillion spent on
unemployment assistance and other items. The Senate wants a $1 trillion package
that includes protections for companies from being sued over the virus (if an
employee returns to work and becomes ill).
President Trump, in one of his bonehead decisions this year,
proclaims that he wants a payroll tax cut as part of the package. This appears
to be nixed today. Neither republicans or democrats expected that to be
included. Trump looks stupid for ever pushing the idea. With 20 million people
out of work and becoming desperate, King Donnie thinks it is best to provide a tax
cut for the people working. Go figure. Perhaps Trump knew it would get shot
down and now he will tout that as one of his campaign promises going forward.
Isn’t it sickening that politicians always put their own business before the
people’s business? That’s one of the reasons crony capitalism is crumbling.
Trump has been boasting about the recent run-up in the stock market so he still
likes using it as a gauge of his performance.
Smoke rises from the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Texas.
The US tells the Chinese occupying the facility to vacate within 72 hours. The
filthy communists are in the parking lot burning records. The fire department
arrives but is not permitted to enter the facility. The US says the consulate
has been under investigation and found to be involved in IP theft. China will
surely retaliate by probably closing one of the six American Consulates in
China.
President Trump conducts a third press conference in as many
days. As he enters the Whitehouse press room, Dr Birx from the NIH, enters last
and takes a seat off stage. Trump refuses to allow the doctors to speak even
though it is supposed to be a virus press conference with medical updates.
Trump proclaims over the last two days that the doctors brief him on all
matters and then he comes on stage to report to the people. The president says,
“It is working out good.” What? For who? The stuff is hilarious if not so
tragic. Trump does not grasp the fact that Americans would rather hear the
medical information from an actual doctor instead of an orange-headed
bloviating showman. The new press conferences are looking a lot like the old
pressers with Donnie downplaying the severity of the virus and filtering the
doctor’s information.
Trump announces plans to cancel the RNC convention in
Florida, one of the hardest hit states that will continue dealing with covid
trouble through August. Moving the republican convention from North Carolina to
Florida was another bonehead decision by the Campaigner-in-Chief. Trump and
Desantis (Florida Governor) were drinking the Kool-Aid convincing each other
that the worst was over for Florida but in reality had only just begun. Trump
says he is thinking about the people of Florida when he cancels the event. No
he’s not. He moved the convention, and considers Florida his second home now,
because it is a key election state. Trump figured by using Mar-a-Lago for
presidential business he would establish a strong beachhead in the peninsula
state that would lead to reelection victory. Instead, Trump may be relegated to
conducting mainly a virtual convention, like the democrats committed to for
their convention. Donnie will not receive adoration fuel from his faithful
audience.
Recent polls show Biden ahead of Trump in Florida with one
poll showing a 14-point lead by Biden. Florida may want to jettison Trump
rather than keep him around. House Leader Pelosi calls the coronavirus the
“Trump Virus” obviously trying to paint the president in a negative light ahead
of the election. The campaigns are going to get a lot dirtier and nastier.
The president says schools in the coronavirus hotspot areas
may have to delay opening in yet another reversal by Trump. He has been
resolute in saying schools will reopen even threatening to eliminate funding
for those not obeying his decrees. That is changing now that he is offering
delays. There is no cohesive national plan for handling the virus. Trump’s
strategy is crisis management; he simply moves from crisis to crisis handling
each fire without any pre-planning strategy to prevent the fires in the first
place. Parents are stressed-out over the school situation since they need the
kids there so they can work but at the same time are fearful that the child
will bring home the virus to an older parent or grandparent as well as infecting
teachers. It’s a mess.
Microsoft founder and billionaire Bill Gates criticizes
President Trump saying many mistakes were made. If Gates had his way, schools
would be closed until Fall 2021. Gates said the future virus vaccine will
likely require several shots. 13 nuns die over the last few weeks at a convent
in Livonia, Michigan. CBS News reports that the sisters said the virus came
through like “wildfire.” Lord, open up those Pearly Gates, there’s a baker’s
dozen coming at you.
The US death chart is shown above since it is the focus of
attention by the president these days. Clearly, the 7-day moving average is
traveling higher so Trump and Pence can no longer say the death rate is
decreasing. They realize that so the focus now is on the total numbers with the
president touting the improvement from about 2,500 deaths per day back in April
to about 1,000 now; so deaths are cut to less than half of the April highs. That
is not saying much but Donnie and Pence are covering their wrinkled flesh with
this tiny loin cloth as best they can. The total death curve is sloping higher
now which is not good news. Some scientists believe that 400K people will be
dead by the end of the year.
On Friday, 7/24/20, today, China retaliates against the
closing of the Houston consulate by ordering the closure of the US Consulate in
Chengdu located in southwestern China. This consulate acts as a gateway to
visit Tibet so access to that region will be far more difficult although it has
not been that easy under current conditions. The US-China tensions escalate as
the tit-for-tat battles continue. Small trade and economic battles many times
lead to large shooting wars.
The US escalates the tension with China by arresting a
Chinese citizen at the San Francisco Consulate on suspicions of fraud. The
stock market remains indifferent to negative news since the Federal Reserve and
US government are providing boatloads of stimulus money which pumps stocks
higher making for a happy wealthy class.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more
data and information are available. This is Article 14 in the coronavirus
series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists,
economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians
studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This fourteenth article is published on Friday,
7/24/20.
The countries and US states are listed below from best to
worst based on the spread of the virus so the hot spots around the world and in
America are easily identified. The coronavirus articles are written in
real-time so it is interesting to see the progression of knowledge, thought,
hysteria and scientific information during each week of the 2020 worldwide
coronavirus pandemic.
The health organizations (WHO, CDC and NIH), Trump
Administration and Congress continue struggling on how to handle and contain the
COVID-19 pandemic. All the following articles in the coronavirus series below
can be accessed through the blog site archives or by searching on the site or
internet.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies
and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending
Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases
Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans
Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue;
Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South
Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month;
US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W
Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; Coronavirus Article 13 published on
7/14/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided
courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM
monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies
the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the
active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared,
like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active
cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add
28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak
Date.
Watch to see if Australia, Hong Kong and/or Japan can snuff
out their second waves as quickly as the first. Hong Kong had a peak in the
active cases bell curve only 9 days after the peak high in new cases.
Australia’ active cases peaked out in only 5 days after the new cases peak and
Japan was only 13 days. Thus, if the three nations can repeat their first wave
performance, Hong Kong’s active cases bell curve should peak on 8/1/20 , Australia’s
target is on Monday, 7/27/20 and Japan’s active cases chart should peak-out and
flatten on 8/5/20. This may be wishful thinking. It would be disappointing for
all other nations if these three countries, that fought the virus so well in
the first wave, are struggling with the second wave. It would mean the other
countries, including the US, are really screwed in the months ahead.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart represents
the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. The news is
not good for many countries and states as highlighted below. Several of the
active cases charts are going parabolic (vertical) which means trouble is here
to stay for a solid month or two.
The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for
forecasting purposes. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new
peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new
date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the
peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher
high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.
The peak new case date for the US keeps getting pushed
forward currently at 7/23/20. The new cases remain elevated day after day so
the peak in active cases will come later. Adding 28 days is a target date of
8/20/20 for the flattening of the active cases curve as long as the new cases
chart does not peak anymore. Healthcare workers will be laboring into Labor
Day. Sadly, more medical workers are becoming infected with covid. Sooner or
later, the parasite (coronavirus) finds a way to get into its host (human).
Below are some of the remaining global hotspots with their
projected peaks in active cases dates provided.
Saudi Arabia
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (peak
occurs 7/12/20)
Egypt
6/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/22/20)
Sweden (data
is suspect)
6/24/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in; lack of
data)
Ukraine
6/26/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/20/20)
Bangladesh
7/2/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Indonesia
7/9/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/6/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/18/20)
Philippines
7/16/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Honduras
7/20/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kenya
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date
United
States
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Colombia
7/18/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kazakhstan
7/18/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Mexico
7/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bolivia
7/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Brazil
7/22/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Romania
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Africa
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Argentina
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
El Salvador
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
India
7/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Asia
(Indonesia and Philippines) remains a hotspot. Ditto South Asia with India and
Bangladesh. Peru is seeing a steady uptick in new cases and the active cases
curve is curling higher hinting at trouble ahead for this copper-rich nation.
Peru may have to reappear on the list above next time. Mexico and Central and
South America continue dealing with the covid nightmare. Mexico and the
southern United States is a highly infected region. South Africa is another
hotspot. Kazakhstan is a new addition to the list and there is concern that the
region may be impacted by a different strain of coronavirus.
Sadly, as
per the target date above generated by the Keystone Model, the United States
will not see a peak in the active cases curve, identifying the peak stress on
the medical system and personnel, until August 20. Good luck to all you fine
doctors and nurses. It usually takes another week or two for the right side of
the bell shape to begin forming with a dramatic drop-off in cases and
hospitalizations so America’s healthcare workers face a tough period now
through Labor Day. Maybe a lot of you can then take some time off to recharge
your batteries in September. Hang in there.
For America,
the troubled states are highlighted below with their projections on when the
active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the
Keystone Model. The top dozen states for total virus cases, from highest to
lowest, are New York with over 438K total cases, California, Florida, Texas,
New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, North
Carolina and Louisiana with 104K total cases.
Maryland
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/19/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/16/20 (as of 7/24/20, chart continues higher)
Virginia
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/26/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (as of 7/24/20, chart continues higher)
Arizona
New Case
Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20
Florida
New Case
Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/9/20
Tennessee
New Case
Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20
Washington
(state)
New Case
Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20
Texas
New Case
Peak Date 7/15/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/12/20
Utah
New Case
Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20
Idaho
New Case
Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20
Nevada
New Case
Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Montana
New Case
Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Ohio
New Case
Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active
Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/15/20
Oregon
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20
South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20
Louisiana
New Case
Peak Date 7/20/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/17/20
Kansas
New Case
Peak Date 7/20/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/17/20
Missouri
New Case
Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20
Oklahoma
New Case
Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20
California
New Case
Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20
North
Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20
Alaska
New Case
Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20
Arkansas
New Case
Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20
Wisconsin
New Case
Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20
Alabama
New Case
Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20
New Mexico
New Case
Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20
Nearly every
state listed above has its projected peak in active cases moved farther into
the future over the last few days. New Mexico deteriorates badly over the last
week. Nevada worsens. Alabama spikes itself higher into more covid trouble.
Alabama better prepare quickly since the state may be blindsided by the strain
on the medical system during August. California deteriorated moving lower on
the list.
San Jose,
California, and Miami, Florida, are identified as hotspot cities by Dr Birx
which works directly with Fauci at the NIH. Birx says the virus task force are
tracking 10 other cities as potential hotspots including New Orleans, Las
Vegas, St Louis, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Cleveland, Nashville, Pittsburgh,
Columbus and Baltimore. The Pittsburgh area data is stable so it is odd that it
is on the list but the city does have a democrat mayor so perhaps the list has
a little bit to do with politics as well as science?
Birx says that Florida, Texas and California are "Three New York's." New York was hit hard with coronavirus and she is making the point that these three states are equally bad as New York was at its peak. This has been true over the last month, however, as evidenced by the data above, Florida, Texas and Arizona are moving up on the list which indicates conditions improving a hair although the strain on the medical systems will continue into mid-August. California remains in a tough pickle. Folks must be doing a lot of partying in La La Land, the land of fruits and nuts.
Arkansas and
Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worse. Wisconsin is in bad shape and that
is where the DNC (democrat) convention will be held in mid-August although it
was always planned as mainly a virtual event. The RNC (republican) convention
is one week after the DNC convention and will now include virtual components
since the Florida main event is cancelled.
For any
state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply
identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project
when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone
Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number,
or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case
peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The
states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their
medical personnel and equipment.
After six
months of knowing that there was a problem with a pneumonia-like disease
spreading in Wuhan, China, home of two bioweapons laboratories, the United
States is in the worst shape to date. The virus data worsened for the most
troubled states across the board. Coronavirus is spreading out of control over
the last couple weeks. Early June was only a lull period; it was thought to be
the light at the end of the tunnel but it turned out to be an oncoming freight
train loaded with coronavirus instead.
President
Trump is receiving heat today over the restarting of schools. Some folks are
complaining that Trump cancelled the Florida convention but he still wants kids
to go to school. Nonetheless, the presdient keeps pushing to open schools and college campuses. The back to school situation is a mess and the angst and stress for parents, kids and teachers will increase each day forward.
Fauci warns about forcing teachers back to work since many may become infected with coronavirus. Fauci and Birx say there is still a lot to learn about children transmitting COVID-19. Doctors and scientists cannot yet definitively say that kids under 10 years old transmit the virus less than those older than 10. Dr Fauci throws out he first pitch at a Washington Nationals baseball game that kicks off a truncated baseball season. Trump's orange head turns red with envy. Public officials view themselves as celebrities as would be expected during these bread and circus days. Some Americans are turned off by the kneeling stuff during the playing of the National Anthem before sporting events and other political garbage infiltrating sports and do not bother to watch the game. Fauci threw like a girl. Nope, that is insulting to the smart, athletic and pretty ladies. Any woman can easily throw better than Fauci. The ball
dribbled off to the left after bouncing on the ground one-half the distance
to homeplate; a complete embarrassment. It looks like Fauci never threw
anything in his life, not a frisbee, not a football, not a newspaper from
a boyhood paper route and not even a bag of peanuts.
The virus
saga drags on and folks realize the covid inconvenience is here to stay for
many more months. People are not complaining to any great extent since they see
folks dying from the disease. Fauci says that a vaccine will likely not be
available until early 2021. He does hope for constructive treatments and
therapies to be identified in the coming weeks and implemented before the end of
the year.
Remember to
boost your immune system with vitamins and supplements of course in
consultation with your doctor. A worthwhile regimen is to take Zinc, Vitamin A,
Vitamin C and Vitamin D-3 daily which will keep your immune system strong
during the age of covid. All four of these are inexpensive and available from
any local store. In addition, it would be wise to take a multi-vitamin, COQ10,
turmeric and fish oil. All these supplements and vitamins should be part of
your daily routine anyway. Anyone not taking turmeric daily is a fool. Even
funnier, most Americans are popping several prescription drugs per day like a
common street addict and yet they may pooh-pooh and denigrate a miracle
supplement like turmeric. Society acts odd during the ongoing bread and circus
days. At a minimum, to keep your body 100% attentive to covid, it would be extremely intelligent to simply take a zinc tablet each day through the end of the year.
Note Added Saturday, 7/25/20: WHO says over 284K people around the world are infected with COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. Victoria, Australia, on the southern tip of the island continent, is hit hard by covid. Over 300 healthcare workers are sick with the virus in that region. 8% of the infections in the Victoria region are medical personnel. The US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index is at 3216 and started the year at 3231. The stock market is dead flat on the year after the record setting February-March crash and then recovery over the last four months. The US Congress continues negotiating the stimulus bill. A few-day snag is occurring as the republicans squabble internally. Senate Leader McConnell says a bill will be provided on Monday so the House and Senate can then begin the fight over their respective bills next week. The democrat package is $3 trillion while the republicans only want to provide $1 trillion. The middle ground is $2 trillion but it may be $1.5 trillion or so to provide the republicans cover. The politicians can always provide another stimulus bill in the future. For the potential cash payment to Americans, last time it was a $1,800 giveaway and the democrats want that repeated again, however, the republicans only want to offer $1,200 this time around. They may meet in the middle there so many Americans will likely receive a $1,500 check come late August or early September. The majority thinking is that a stimulus bill is needed immediately since the $600 per week supplemental unemployment benefits are running out now. Angering the populace is not a wise strategy with the elections only 101 days away. What a mess. Down the road, Americans will begin to realize there is not enough money to save everything.
Note Added Sunday, 7/26/20: China's coronavirus bioweapon has infected over 16.4 million people around the world and murdered over 651K people. The nations with the most cases are USA, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa and Mexico. Brazil President Bolsanaro has been self-quarantined after he contracted the virus but he continues to treat covid as a mild nuisance and he is lax about using a mask; as people die left and right. in the US, nearly 150K people are dead from covid. California takes the top spot from New York in total cases with Florida in third and Texas fourth. President Trump spends the weekend at his golf resort. Democrat House Speaker Pelosi says the republican president is "fiddlin'" which is a reference to Nero fiddling while Rome was burning. During 9-11, Bush was reading a story book to kids called My Pet Goat and he wanted to finish it. Then during Hurricane Katrina, Bush did a flyover and then was scene strumming a guitar. President Obama had his share of miscues mainly spending time out on the golf course while major problems would be occurring. Trump promised he would never be on the golf course like Obama and he proclaimed that was shameful behavior. Well, Trump enjoys another round of golf as the pandemic kills 150K Americans. Perhaps this is why his poll numbers are slipping. Trump is wanting to run as a law and order candidate since he cannot run on his handling of the pandemic or the economy; both are in shambles. King Donnie sends Federal forces into cities experiencing ongoing riots but this only seems to fan the flames of violence. Trump wants to smash the protests so he can brag about it for the last 100 days of the campaign. The strategy is faulty since the violence and riots will likely worsen into and through the election as the United States morphs into a class war that will extend for a few years. If you are in office bragging about law and order it will not be pretty to see violent riots played on television; it would mean you cannot handle it and you would look like Baghdad Bob. Trump brags that he can crush Biden in the debates, and he probably will, however, like trading, perceptions matter not the actual truth. The Republican Tribe is setting the bar so low for Biden that if Sleepy Joe only manages to hold his own against Trump, and not make a gaff, it will be a big victory for the man from Scranton (Pennsylvania). Biden has an 11-point lead in the polls over Trump so Sleepy Joe continues napping in the basement occasionally rolling over to change the side he lays on so his arm does not fall asleep. Joe asked the aid to have a Boost protein drink ready for him when he wakes in a half hour. Biden pulls a blankie over his thin legs since the room is cold due to the bank of servers running in the closet. Biden will choose his vice president running mate over the coming days. It is the first major decision for a presidential candidate and many have blown it. From a subjective opinion since this author does not care for any politician, Biden likely needs to pick Val Demings. She is smart, attractive and has a police background that would be a selling point to help stop the nationwide riots. Demings has a killer smile and people will like that and she also has some charisma, a key ingredient of a winner; she appears very approachable and a direct-talker, someone you would have fun with at a backyard get-together. If Biden picks her, he will likely open up a larger lead in the polls. If he picks any other candidate for veep, it will be an average reaction except for Rice, which would be a terrible bungle and a huge mistake. Trump is praying every night for Biden to pick Rice. If he picks "Benghazi" Rice, that will be a disaster for democrats; Biden's poll numbers would be expected to drop a few points immediately. Independents will run from Biden and return to Trump. It is bad enough that he is considering Rice; she was dishonest lying on television about the Benghazi raid that killed four Americans a few years ago. On top of that, Hillary Clinton was not honest with the parents of the deceased as their bodies were returned to the US. Clinton vowed that she would bring the person to justice that did the deed but her and Rice already knew everything that happened. This was one of the reasons that Clinton lost the election; Americans did not like the dishonesty shown to families of the four dead Americans. That Rice chick is damaged goods; she should not be in government at all. If he wins, Biden will probably stick Rice into the Secretary of State job, which would be bad if she had any job. Warren will likely head the Treasury. Harris would likely take the Attorney General job. Biden would be smart to jettison Rice from the entire picture especially if he wants the independent votes. Rice soils Biden's bid for the presidency. In the dirty world of politics, maybe Biden was given campaign funds by a fat donor if he provided notoriety for Rice, for whatever reason.
Note Added Monday, 7/27/20: Moderna begins the phase three trial for their vaccine treatment. 15K people will receive the vaccine and 15K will receive a placebo. Fauci says results should be available in the October-November time frame. MRNA catapults +11% higher as the pharmaceutical companies dance with glee at all the billions of government money they get to freely spend. Doctors and scientists are becoming more concerned that many Americans will not take the vaccine if it becomes available. President Trump's National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien takes ill with the virus. Trump keeps stomping his feet up and down telling states to open schools but he does not provide a national plan, or funding, on how to do it safely. Hurricanes are hitting the southern coastal states so people will seek shelter and obviously expose each other to coronavirus. When it rains, it pours. Alphabet (Google) tells employees they can work at home for the next year. The abbreviated baseball season started days ago but is in shambles. Two games are cancelled as players are infected with covid. Senate Majority Leader McConnell releases the republican version of the stimulus bill which is $1 trillion, compared to the democrats package of over $3 trillion. Most view it as stingy but it is the start of negotiations between the House (democrat-controlled) and Senate (republican-controlled). The Senate wants to protect companies from being sued if workers contract the virus. The temporary moratorium on evictions ends now as well as the $600 per week supplemental unemployment offered to laid off workers. About 20 million people remain out of work and many of their jobs are toast. Politicians say unemployed folks are not going back to work since they make more money on unemployment assistance. This garbage talk always pokes its ugly head up during recessions. America's wealthy class rape the financial system for all its worth, millions and billions, sending the economy into a tailspin and then they complain about minimum wage workers being given an extra handful of peanuts. Such is the collapsing crony capitalism system in America. The UK is imposing a quarantine for travelers from Spain. European travel stocks are hit hard. TUI is chop suey crashing -11%.
Note Added Tuesday, 7/28/20: The media keeps touting the headline that the US deaths are over 150K. The controversy around testing continues. Trump brags that the testing in America is the best but he only points to the total number of tests, now at 55 million. On a per capita (per person) basis, there are many other countries with far better programs. In fact, for the pandemic to rage on for six months and the US has tested less than 60 million people is pitiful. No wonder the virus spreads. The US has only tested about 10 million people per month, on average, since the pandemic trouble started out of the 330 million population. The US testing and tracing program is a failure. The president is blowing smoke up everyone's butt. A stink develops since professional sports teams are getting tested daily while regular American citizens are pushed aside. Also, the ongoing PPE shortage is nauseating to watch after many months. Trump keeps saying everyone has what they want but the hospital personnel clearly show that they do not. People do not want to hear misinformation and half-truth's during a pandemic. They are worried about parents and their kids returning to school. They want useful, clear information but every day is layer upon layer of chaos and confusion. A big part of the problem is the lack of a national plan and direction but Trump likely does not want to take control since he will be blamed for things ahead of the election. Trump conducts a virus press conference in the afternoon that does not go well. As usual, like the old press conferences, Trump brags about how great he is and he provides selected numbers to back his case. There are no charts or graphics so the numbers go in one ear and out the other. Trump proclaims, "large spots (of America) are corona-free" and "you will see it (coronavirus) rapidly go down." The dude cannot help himself; he keeps making stuff up. The president takes questions and immediately steps into the hydroxychloroquine quagmire. Trump had tweeted a video showing doctors endorsing the drug but their medical credentials are shaky. Doctors Fauci and Birx say the medical studies have shown that hydroxychloroquine is not an effective treatment in handling coronavirus patients. The drug has become completely political with republicans touting it as the miracle cure for covid while the democrats warn of potential heart attacks and other risks for taking this malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis drug. Several studies, mainly from Europe show that the drug is not helpful. It was given to sick patients and each patient proceeded with the disease as if they took nothing. The drug likely did not help because the sample sizes and make-up of the studies were mostly on old sick virus patients some with one foot in the casket already. On the other side, the drug was studied in healthy adults who took the drug immediately after testing positive. Humorously, the drug shows efficacy, like Trump and Brazil President Bolsanaro tout and endorse, but the focus of these studies was all on young healthy people that are already known to handle the virus well. It is as if both sides stacked the deck in their political favor. The liberal and democrat tribe touts the studies where people on their death bed were not helped by the drug while the conservative and republican tribe touts the studies that tested the drug on young healthy people that would have expected to recover easily anyway. You need your head examined if you cheerlead either of these corrupt dirtbag parties. Be an independent thinker instead. America sure needs independent, subjective leaders now more than ever. The press conference goes off the rails when Trump whines and complains about the popularity of Fauci and Birx, the doctors, but not him. Trump says he should receive the same credit. It is not a good look for Donnie to whine like a baby. Clearly, he is jealous of Fauci, that people perceive as a more reliable resource for information (perhaps misplaced adoration) than the president. Trump is not happy that Fauci threw out the first pitch to start the baseball season; he thought he should be the one to do that. You are embarrassed for Trump that a grown man well into his 70's would show such childhood and adolescent pettiness, but, that's Our Donnie. Trump says Fauci is liked but he is liked more; this statement is disturbing since it sounds like it comes straight from the mouth of Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman who always said his wealthy brother is liked, but he was "well-liked." It's eerie. The coronavirus soap opera gets stranger by the day. Trump becomes frustrated with the questions asked so he walks off stage ending the press briefing like a little boy taking his ball and going home. Trump wanted to right the ship with the press briefings but they are more of a disaster now than before. People want to hear information directly from the doctors not from Trump that heard it from a doctor. The guy seems unable to grasp this idea or more likely he refuses to since he wants to control the message with the election coming fast. Trump refuses to allow doctors to speak at the briefings that are supposed to provide up to the minute information on coronavirus. It's twisted and all this daily confusion and drama takes the president's poll numbers lower.
Note Added Wednesday, 7/29/20: President Trump travels to Texas for a fundraiser as Americans die from coronavirus each day. Republican Texas Representative Gohmert, that touts the president's line about refusing to wear a mask, tests positive for the virus. Gohmert was interacting with many people yesterday and not wearing a mask. Gohmert was supposed to travel with the president to Texas. Trump carries out the event and meets with officials without wearing a mask. King Donnie's mask wearing photo and video op a week ago was simply a ploy. Few people attending the events are wearing masks and instead everyone is partying and commingling. No wonder Americans remain confused and uncertain about what to do during the pandemic. The mixed messages continue. Trump clearly remains against wearing masks. Gohmert claims that the mask he was occasionally using caused him to get the virus. This stuff is hilarious, albeit tragic. Masks likely fall under the category of 'every little bit helps' so it is likely better to wear one if possible but if it impacts breathing and such, those people should not be forced to wear a mask. After the Gohmert illness, Speaker Pelosi makes mask-wearing mandatory on the House floor effective tomorrow. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell conducts a press conference after the FOMC two-day meeting and promises easy money forever. Of course he said that; the Fed is a one-trick pony that only knows how to print money to make stocks run higher to provide vast wealthy to the elite privileged class that owns large equity portfolios. This is America's crony capitalism system that is in its last throes. The S&P 500 jumps 40 points higher to 3258.
Note Added Thursday, 7/30/20: 17.2 million people are infected with covid around the world with 671K deaths. The USA is approaching 4.6 million cases (27% of the worlds cases) and 154K deaths. For the world, almost 4%, or 4 in every 100 people, die that contract the virus. In America, it is a little less at 3.4%, or 1 in every 30 people that contract the virus will die. Comparing the US deaths to the total 330,000,000 population results in a 0.000005% chance of dying from the coronavirus in the United States. In other words, the average American has a one in 2,143 chance of dying from the virus, however, if you do get sick with the virus, there is a 1 in 30 chance that you will die. Global investors are focused on the US GDP and Jobless Claims numbers released this morning. The Q2 (April, May, June) GDP is down -32.9% (annualized percentage) the largest drop in history. Nothing else is even close. Jobless Claims are 1.434 million worse than expected. Trump plays Twitter games wondering if the election will have to be delayed. Trump knows people will get all riled-up about this comment; it boggles the mind why he says such stupid things. The comment is so stupid the republican leadership (McConnel, Cruz, Rubio, and others) immediately jumps in and unequivocally states that the election date is cast in stone and will not change. Trump has no power to change the date anyway; Congress would do that. Donnie, do you understand why your poll numbers are slipping? That is stupid stuff. The major tech stocks such as GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN and FB, report earnings this evening and all stocks rally higher after the results. People are spending more time at home so these stocks are the beneficiaries. Republican presidential candidate from years ago, Herman Cain, that also saved a pizza chain, passed away from the coronavirus. Cain was partying with Trump at the Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally laughing at the dolts using masks. Two weeks later he was sick. Then in the hospital. Then downhill from there; now dead. President Trump conducts another press conference and Americans wonder what theatrics and drama will be in store on tonight's reality television show. Trump stands at the podium and reads from notes. He drones on; everyone is likely waiting for the Q&A because that is when he will become animated and maybe do something wild for the news reels. Here we go. The briefing is Trump denigrating democrats and portraying republicans with halos on their heads. He is back to the campaign speech stuff. The briefings are a joke. He continues reading from notes which does not make for a compelling presentation. Trump rambles on about opening schools and he says if it does not happen there will be "death, death." He outlines some of the ongoing problems but does not provide any solutions and simply dumps all the responsibility for solving the items onto the states and others. He says that America will rise better than before but the words are hollow when he is reading it from a sheet of paper and it sounds like it is the first time he read his own speech notes. He begins taking questions and makes claims that the election will be rigged and ruined by mail-in voting. Trump says hundreds of millions of mail-in ballots are sent out. This sounds like a made-up statement since there are only 330 million people int the US and only about one-half to two-thirds vote so for 150 million voters Trump says 600 or 700 million forms are sent out? This is a lie. Comically, the orange head, minutes later, now repeats the same statement saying tens of millions of ballots are sent out. Trump is simply mixed up in the head talking about a potential rigged election due to mail-in voting and about the ongoing civil unrest in Portland and other cities.
Note Added Friday, 7/31/20: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) updates its study from two weeks ago adding another 11K deaths to its forecasts predicting 230,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by November 1. A quarter-of-a-million dead Americans gets your attention. The study says many Americans are not following mask and social distancing guidelines which continues the covid spread. A recent poll finds that 3 of 4 Americans have a low opinion of China which is a substantive increase over the last few months. China must pay for its sick bioterrorism agenda, unleashing the Wuhan virus bioweapon on the world. The human destruction is historic. America has descended into a dirtbag game of politics as the pandemic spreads. The democrats (House) passed a $3 trillion stimulus bill a couple months ago but the republicans (Senate) waited until Monday to unveil their $1 trillion plan. Both sides must now negotiate a compromise. The extra $600 per week supplemental unemployment insurance runs out for 17 million and more people today. In addition, the moratorium on evictions ends. The two sides appear far apart on the stimulus bill. McConnell reveals the republican gamesmanship strategy by saying instead of dealing with the large stimulus bill, focus on a small bill to handle the supplemental unemployment insurance. The republicans know the democrats will not be in favor of this path forward, which they are not, so McConnell complains that the democrats are holding up relief for the American people. Trump decrees that the democrats are "obstructionists." These political baby games are getting old with the American people; that is why the social unrest, protests and riots will continue and increase in the weeks and months ahead. Clearly, both dirtbag parties, the republicans and democrats pledge allegiance to their tribes above and before the United States and what is good for the common people. This is how crony capitalism ends.
