VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Bulls and Bears Battle at 200-Day MA

The Keystone Speculator's VIX 200-Day MA Cross Indicator dictates whether the stock market is in a short-term bull or bear market. The bears spiked the VIX up through the 200-day MA in late February starting the stock market collapse. After a -36% crash, the fastest stock market crash in history, the bulls, with help from the central banks, jammed volatility lower to help stocks recover, which they did (but the VIX remains above the 200-day).

In early June, the VIX was on the verge of going below the 200 to signal the all-clear for bullish joy ahead, but, no, the VIX popped instead. The corrupt central bankers, printing money like madmen, with a picture of Keynes hanging on the wall behind them, could not keep the VIX beachball underwater and whooosshh, the VIX popped sending stocks lower. The Fed quickly grabbed the VIX beachball and has been pushing it steadily lower for the last month hoping to achieve victory today going below the 200-day MA.

Today is for all the marbles. Keystone likes to say 'for all the marbles' but young folks probably do not know what marbles are. Marbles is a game we would play as kids placing a string in a circle on the floor and then you shoot marbles into the circle to try and shoot others out that you can keep. There are a couple tiger's eye's around here somewhere. Anyhoodle, today is definitely, drum roll please, "for all the marbles."

If the VIX moves below 26.01, the bears will be skinned alive. The bulls will rule the stock market going forward and the euphorically 100% bullish crowd nowadays will be correct. If the VIX bounces again like early June, a selloff will begin in the stock market. Choose your poison. VIX is at 27.46 currently; it begins trading at 3 AM EST. S&P futures are up +40 but this does not matter if volatility is not going lower. The VIX dropped to 26 earlier and bounced. On Friday, VIX stabbed down through the 200 to 25.90 but then quickly recovered; this LOD number is key today.

The thick red bar is 38.12 a bull-bear line in the sand currently tracked by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. The quant remains long the stock market currently. The stock market is in serious trouble and will fall apart quickly if 38.12 is taken out to the upside.

Thus, today is simple and tells a lot about stock market direction. If the VIX drops below 26.01, the bulls win big going forward pounding the bears faces into the dirt. If the VIX remains above 26.01 and then moves higher, equities will sell off going forward as the bears push the bulls down the basement stairs. If the VIX moves higher and takes out 38.12, the stock market may crash. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:05 AM EST: S&P futures are up +41 and the VIX plummets to 25.20. Bulls are throwing confetti and singing songs. Whhheeee! Whooopppiieee! Traders are ready to buy more stocks with reckless abandon. Watch VIX 26.01 since it dictates whether the bullish euphoria this morning is justified, or not.

Note Added 9:07 AM EST: Woo-hoo. Markets are a joke. VIX is flash crashing and spiking now up to 26.34. Do you think that traders and robots know that VIX 26.01 is for all the marbles. Of course they do. It is all on the line today.

Note Added 9:09 AM EST: VIX 26.51. S&P +38. Let the festivities begin.

Note Added 9:42 AM EST: VIX takes a dipsy-doodle down to 24.92 but the next minute it is at 27.64. The bulls have to hold the VIX below the 200-day MA at 26.07 if they want to par-tay going forward. The SPX pops 41 points to 3171 above the Friday HOD. So the bulls and bears have things to cheer. VIX 26.07 will dictate who wins. Both the SPX and VIX are higher so one of them is wrong (the two move inversely to one another over 90% of the time).

Note Added 9:52 AM EST: VIX 27.666. SPX 3174. 10-year yield 0.70%. Banks up. Commodities up. Everyone is partying and drunk as skunks picking stocks by throwing darts at the newspaper pages. Virus, schmirus. Everybody and every thing is bullish today, however, the VIX 26.07 has not yet given its blessing.

Note Added 9:57 AM EST: The Fed has one jackboot on the throat of volatility while using the other to kick stocks higher. The central banks are pumping. The SPX is porked 48 points higher to 3178. Pump it. Pump It Up as Elvis would sing. VIX 27.65 a couple pennies negative on the day so the bulls are winning and are starting to signal that they want to make a run at VIX 26.07. SPX price is filling the gap from 6/11 and 6/12.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/7/20, at 3:31 AM EST: The bulls win the day with the SPX gaining 50 big points, +1.6%, to 3180. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's so the bears need to spank price down right here right now because a couple closes above 3180 opens the door to the 3220's. The VIX is trading a hair below 29 right now with the S&P futures down -18 so the bears are trying to claw back one-third or one-half of yesterday's gains. The bulls are receiving all the glory these days, they are on the front page of all the fancy magazines and in demand for the sexy photo-shoots, however, the bears are smiling in the background. The VIX is near 29 and the 200-day MA is at 26.08. The battle continues but by the end of the week only a bull or a bear will exit the cage match. The other will be bloodied and left for dead. The CPCE put/call ratio drops to 0.42 verifying the record complacency, fearlessness and rampant bullish euphoria in the stock market. Which side will win going forward? Bulls need the VIX under 26 pronto or they got nothing.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/7/20, at 4:03 AM EST: S&P -19. VIX 28.61.