Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side on Wednesday at SPX 2721 when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began flapping his dovish wings. The central bankers are the market. Copper and banks drive the upside joy. Watch the critical SPX 2751 level, XLF 26.80 and CPER 17.34.

More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation

The S&P 500 weekly chart shows the bears smacking the bulls in the teeth over the last two months. The top call was straight forward with the SPX receiving the neggie d spankdown (red lines). The overbot conditions and rising wedge also create the bearishness. So price plummets and now tries to find support along that green trend line.

As price makes a lower low last week as compared to the month prior, the RSI is positively diverged. Ditto the histogram and stochastics. The MACD line, however, remains weak and bleak. Price will bounce due to the possie d, which is occurring this week thus far, but in a few days or week or two, will want to come back down for a lower low to satisfy the MACD line. At that time, the MACD will likely line up with possie d and that will truly be a more solid bottom to buy in this weekly time frame; say, about 2 weeks out.

The SPX has violated the lower band at 2635 (pink) so the middle band at 2808 is on the table going forward. The bulls bot the dip 5 weeks ago as shown by the brown circle. That strong volume would likely be tested and sure enough price rolled over lower again and last week prints in the same price range as the big up day but the trading volume is not as robust (blue circle). This behavior creates lift in price since the bears did not have enough strong oomph to push the stock market strongly lower.

The ADX shows that the SPX was in a strong weekly uptrend during the back half of 2017 into the January 2018 top. The crash occurs and in May, the strong uptrend for the S&P 500 was over (the ADX drops below 26-ish). On the two months of selling action, the ADX is ramping higher and teasing its way towards a strong trend in the 30's. If this occurs, it will indicate that the stock market will be weak for weeks and likely months ahead. The AROON crossovers are verifying the ups and downs in price.

So what does all this mumbo-jumbo and chart spaghetti mean? The SPX bounced yesterday from the possie d (green lines) but after a few days or so will likely roll back over to the downside to satisfy the MACD. Price may print in the apex of that falling green wedge which is a bullish pattern. If you want to go long and hold the position a few weeks, it is probably best to give it a week or two for the MACD line to positively diverge before committing long.

Once the recovery rally begins in earnest (probably in a couple weeks once the MACD cooperates), price may want to seek that 2730-2760 resistance area that contains key moving averages such as the 50-day at 2756 and 10 and 12-month MA's at 2744-2745. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning 7:44 AM EST: Fed Chairman Powell rides in on a white horse to save the day yesterday. Powell flaps his dovish wings willing to remain accomodative with low rates forever. The central bankers are the market. Since less rate hikes are now expected in 2019, and the Fed is more accomodative, a dovish Fed, stocks leap higher. The easy money will keep flowing like water. Comically, the SPX rocket launches to......wait for it...... wait a little bit longer for it........2744. The 10-month MA and 12-month MA are both at 2751. This number is uber important and separates the cyclical bull from the cyclical bear. As explained above, the possie d on the daily chart creates the rally, it is simply surprising how strong it is off the bottom, from SPX 2630 last Friday to 2744 yesterday, a 3-day rally of 114 points, +4.3%. Short-sellers are running for their lives creating more upside bull fuel due to short-covering. The 200-day MA is 2762. The 50-week MA is 2758. The 2751-2762 gauntlet is for all the marbles. Stock market bears celebrate under 2751. Market bulls are euphoric above 2762. The battle rages on between 2751 and 2762.

Note Added Sunday, 12/2/18: The SPX ends the Friday session at...... wait for it...... 2760. So bulls are happy that they have shaken off the cyclical bear market and are now back into a cyclical bull pattern ahead above 2751-2752, but this battle will likely continue. Price is at 2760 but note how it got sticky within the key 2751-2762 gauntlet. The battle for this key support/resistance at 2751-2762 continues. The bulls have an advantage now. The Trump-Xi summit results in pushing the new tariffs 90 days into the future. Markets may like that. The 200-day MA is 2762.

XLE Energy ETF Daily and Weekly Charts; Positive Divergence Developing; Falling Wedges; Lower Band Violations

Energy has been touted by Wall Street analysts all year long. Energy, oil and gas stocks crash in late January early February but then rally and recover to new highs in late spring and summer. The strategists were busy congratulating each other on how smart they were when energy crashes for the second time this year over the last 8 weeks.

The daily chart shows positive divergence across all indicators as price makes a new low. The falling wedge is bullish. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band at 66.89, at a minimum, is on the table. XLE may form a W bottom which is a very strong bullish pattern especially when it forms below the 50 and 200-day MA's. The daily chart is all systems go for upside.

On the weekly chart, the faling wedge is bullish ditto the oversold stochastics. The indicators are positively diverged except for the MACD line that is weak and bleak. Price begins the week with a bounce but the MACD line will want the XLE to come back down again say, a week or two out, to satisfy the MACD. The bottom will be in on the weekly chart when the MACD line goes possie d which is probably in December.

Thus, the daily chart wants to rock 'n roll higher perhaps with a strong jump due to the W pattern, but in a few days or week or so will likely roll over lower again for a new price low. So if you are a day trader or very short term trader you may want to go for the long side this week but do not stick around. That weekly chart will likely create a little bit more weakness.

Those of you not wanting to trade nimbly, may be best off to wait a couple weeks. Look for that MACD line to go possie d on the weekly, and you can enter a long trade then and stay in XLE for a few weeks ahead. The XLE monthly chart chops sideways not tipping its hand. Generally, energy bulls are going to win big with XLE above 69. Energy bears will cheer if XLE fails below 64. In the near term, stay open to a long trade in XLE. Keystone does not currently have a position in XLE. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

FCX Freeport-McMoRan Daily and Weekly Charts; Positive Divergence; Potential W Bottom

FCX is set up to rally after its multi-month beating. On the daily, price makes a matching low and the indicators are all positively diverged wanting to see price rally higher. Price is near the lower standard deviation band, at 10.65, which must still be respected, and the middle band at 11.62 is on the table and also the upper band at 12.58.

On the daily, FCX is under the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion higher is needed. A potential W-pattern bottom is forming one of the strongest bullish chart patterns especially if the W forms completely below the 50 and 200-day MA's. The blue W will need the last leg up and the break-out line is at 12.5-ish. This forms a confluence with the upper standard deviation band and the 50-day MA resistance. If price breaks above 12.5, the W should shoot it up to 14.3-ish at a minimum; perhaps that resistance at 15 from August and September. Note the 200-day MA sloping negatively you can see maybe a month or two out it forming a confluence with that W target at 14.3-15.0 which may act as a magnet for price.

The weekly chart is set up with positive divergence as well which is a big plus for Frepeort bulls. The falling wedge and possie d should bounce price higher. The MACD line is sketchy with its bottom so price may want to jog up and down over the next week or two but the bottom appears at hand. The RSI did not reach oversold levels which remains on the table and something to remember.

On the weekly, that goofy blue H&S pattern targets the 8 level. The monthly chart remains weak with lots of choppy sideways slop likely ahead. The monthly chart would be open to seeing an 8 level say early next year. Thus the possie d on the daily and weekly right now will likely create a rally for a few days or week or three, but you cannot marry the trade, you must stay nimble in this environment.

For this week, FCX will depend on the President Trump and President Xi meeting on Friday/Saturday at the G20 Summit. Their talks are going to move stocks, commodities, bonds and Forex. If a trade agreement appears more likely, copper and FCX will bounce while if the trade negotiations breakdown copper will likely fall and so will FCX.

Keystone played FCX earlier in the year with a couple successful trades but the last one was a stinker and a loss. Keystone bot FCX again giving it another whirl. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Positive Divergence; Oversold; Falling Wedge

The sideways choppy slop continues after the October crash. Price drops to a lower low than Halloween and the indicators are positively diverged. Stochastics are oversold. Price collapses into the falling wedge pattern. All these indications are bullish for a dead-cat bounce, and perhaps the start of a relief rally, to occur.

Price is near the lower standard deviation band at 2611 so a potential touch there has to be considered. The middle band at 2714 is on table when price recovers. The MACD line is weak in the very near term which may create chop for a day or two but things are set up well for a bull rally ahead.

Remember when Keystone would post the SPX daily chart this year he would comment on the flat and limp ADX line down at 11. This signaled that the steady rally higher in stocks in July, August, September, was not a strong trend, it was actually a weak trend and getting weaker each time a new price top occurred until early October, when price collapsed. With the stock market selling off, the ADX now jumps above 25 to 37 (purple box) signaling that the downward move in price is a very strong trend (it will likely continue going forward).

The AROON did a negative crossover in early October verifying the pending collapse in stocks. The AROON now performs a positive cross with the green line above the red line which is a feather in the bulls cap.

The CPCE put/call ratio is at a high not seen since February when the exact bottom occurred in the stock market after that large selloff. So a rally should occur in the daily time frame, the near-term, receiving a boost from the excessive bearishness and possie d in the chart above. The weekly chart remains soggy so any long trade in the daily time frame should be watched closely and should only be undertaken with a nimble approach in mind. The SPX weekly chart may set up for a more substantive bottom a couple weeks out. The SPX 2-hour chart is set up with positive divergence across all the indicators so it may launch the SPX higher out of the gate. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Near-Term Bottom at Hand

There is fear and panic in the stock market typically a time to buy. The blood is flowing on Wall Street. The CPCE put/call prints 0.85 not seen since February when the 0.85+ number (yellow stars) identified the stock market major bottom that still holds 10 months later.

The green circles show fear and panic at peak levels with traders buying puts like madmen seeking protection from a collapsing stock market. Of course, when everyone and his brother is becoming bearish and in panic mode, that is when the market bottom occurs. The CPC is elevated at 1.12 but not yet at recent highs. The SPX could very well drop another 20 or 30 handles, if so, that would send the CPC higher and CPCE above 0.85 further cementing the pending near-term bottom.

The stock market may bottom at anytime, any hour, any day going forward. If you benefited from the short side it is a good time to pare back these positions and start to nibble on longs for trading in the daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 10, 12 and 20-Month MA's

One of Keystone's most important cyclical stock market signals is the SPX 12-month MA cross which is dubbed the cliff edge. When the 12-mth at 2742 was lost, it was over for the stock market. Equities are now in a cyclical bear market.

Price now drops to the 20-month MA at 2640 which is the current battle. The stock market will drastically deteriorate if the 2640 is lost. The S&P 500 is looking for support right now since a lot of the price action in late 2017 and early 2018 was at the current level at 2640-ish. Price will bounce or die from this level. A bounce would likely take the SPX up to back kiss the 12-mth MA at 2742.

Note that the 10-mth MA at 2740 has crossed down below the 12-mth MA at 2742 (red circle) another negative development for the stock market. The MACD also prints a negative cross (red circle). The RSI and stochastics are not yet in bear territory (below 50%) so watch that closely. The current candlestick will be cast in concrete next Friday at EOM and December trading begins on Monday, 12/3/18.

Remember the purple circle? Keystone described the stock market topping process this year as it played out. We saw the indicators roll over on the monthly chart above sans the MACD line (green line). That was the end of September so we had to wait for the October candlestick to begin. The SPX needed to print another matching or higher high in price to satisfy the long and strong MACD line and it happened in October. At that mathing price high, the indicators all lined up with neggie d, so the smack down was at hand.

The expectation was for the stock market to top out and die anytime from late September to November. Boom. Stocks began falling apart and crashing in early October. It was all in the chart above. It's not rocket science. The overbot conditions, rising red wedge and universal neggie d all conspired to smack price lower.

The indicators continue sloping lower, weak and bleak, so more new lows would be expected in the SPX after any bounce would occur in this monthly time frame. Watch the current battle at the 20-mth MA at 2640. The SPX price is at .....wait for it.... wait a little bit longer for it..... a wee bit longer....... yes, 2640, at 10:34 AM EST, Friday, 11/23/18.

The LOD is 2631 piercing the 20-mth MA but price recovered. The S&P 500 is deciding to bounce or die. The bears battle to stab down through 2640. The bulls fight to hold the 2640 support with all their might. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:51 AM EST: SPX 2640. VIX 21.49.

Note Added 10:55 AM EST: SPX 2643. VIX 21.41.

Note Added Sunday, 11/25/18: SPX 2632. VIX 21.52. Copper failed into Friday's closing bell which sent the stock market into a tailspin. Bears win big with the SPX closing below the 50-month MA at 2640. Bulls need to immediately push the S&P 500 above 2640 or they are toast.

AAPL Apple Daily Chart; Apple Enters Bear Market; H&S; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation

Apple has collapsed -20.4% off the top at 233.47 in early October slipping into a bear market. CEO Cook cradles his head in his hands and wonders what Steve Jobs would do? The stories continue to mount that Apple is paring back production on its new iPhones. This would be done if the demand is soft since you do not want to be stuck with an inventory glut that would then lead to a markdown.

The global smartphone market has been peaking, leveling off and rolling over. Most folks that wanted a smartphone own one. Consumers are starting to hold on to phones longer since they are expensive. The new adopters finally coming to the smartphone market are thrifty and tend to buy cheaper models. The competition is fierce with everybody and his brother making smartphones and they all look and operate the same basic way. Apple relies on iPhone sales to make its quarterly numbers so the path ahead becomes dark.

The red lines show the neggie d spankdown Keystone talked about as it formed and played out. Price is spanked down in October and then soils the bed in November. That is an ugly drop. From hero to zero. Warren Buffett grabs his chest falling backwards into his easy chair yelling at his secretary to find his heart medication.

The orange lines show a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern with head at 233 and neck at 214-ish. That is a difference of 19 so the downside target is 195 if the 214 is breached. It was breached and the target was achieved satisfying the H&S pattern.

The blue circle shows lots of congestion from June and July in that 180-195 range. Price may want to chop around in here for a while. The green lines show the falling wedge which is bullish also the positive divergence with the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow all agreeable to price bouncing in this daily time frame. The MACD line, however, remains weak and bleak. Thus, price will likely bounce for a day or two, but then come back down again for a lower low due to the MACD line. At that time say 2 to 4 days out, the MACD line should turn possie d and that will set things up for a relief rally for the daily time frame.

So if you are thinking of going long, maybe hold off when you see the pop occur tomorrow and/or Wednesday. When price then comes back down maybe buy that bottom for a ride higher in the daily time frame. A move up to the 194-ish level is a potential target.

Price has violated the lower band so the middle band at 205, and dropping, is on the table. This week is goofy because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Friday is a half day and usually bullish. So AAPL may create this short term buy on Wednesday, Friday or next Monday or Tuesday.

Taking a look at the AAPL weekly chart, whoa, that is an ugly one. The indicators are all weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price after any bounce should occur. AAPL is very near the lower standard deviation band on the weekly at 183.

Taking a look at the AAPL monthly chart, remember, Keystone posted this chart several times all year-long explaining the developing topping process in Apple and the roll over to the downside. Interestingly, the MACD line on the monthly peaks exactly with the price peak. That is not negative divergence. Thus, despite the Apple carnage, on the monthly basis, the door is left slightly open that price will at least come up to try and print a matching high again, on the monthly basis. The next few weeks and month or two will tell the story.

Thus, AAPL will likely pop for a day or two, then retreat again for a day or two, this dip can be bot as long as the MACD line above is positively diverged, and then you must remain extremely nimble for the long trade. Apple should rally for a few days or week or two to that 194-ish. If so, and you try the long trade, git out of Dodge quick, because that weak weekly chart will reexert its influence and AAPL will head lower to new lows again. In an ideal scenario, Apple will rally in this daily time frame as explained and that trade can be exited and directly flipped into a short position against AAPL to ride the way lower due to the ongoing weak and bleak weekly chart. The weakness should continue into Christmas next month in the weekly time frame and when that sets up with positive divergence we can assess if the monthly chart will help create a strong future rally, or not. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 11/25/18: AAPL ends the week crashing -11% to 172. Apple is getting hit with a lot of negative news stories about cutting iPhone production due to lack of demand. Price did not get the short bounce only the additional downside expected in this daily time. Same dealio is in place only now the RSI is weak and bleak in oversold territory. Apple should bounce for a day or two then come back down again for more matching or lower lows in price. Perhaps a bottom in this daily time frame is ahead for middle to the back end of this coming week. You have to wait until the RSI and MACD line positively diverge.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; Death Cross

The Russell 2000 small caps print a death cross (black circle). The death cross occurs when the 50-day MA stabs down though the 200-day MA. A golden cross is when the 50 pierces up through the 200. It is always useful to discuss what a death cross means since the television pundits automatically profess doom and gloom from the feared death cross. Run for your lives! Protect the women and children! The media likes to whip viewers into a frenzy with sensational headlines such as the 'death cross' which will bring in more advertising revenue. What always occurs after a death cross, every time, and you hear it again now, is the pundits telling everyone that stocks will sell off going forward.

That is typically not the case (initially). When the death cross occurs, stocks typically rally (at first). It takes a lot of damage to price to cause the 50-day MA to roll over to the downside. By definition, the 50-day MA is the average price over the last 50 days. After the SPX expels all that negative energy over days and weeks creating the drop in the 50-day MA, when the death cross finally occurs, price is typically ready for a relief bounce or bounces. This is why you typically see price bounce like in the RUT chart above. You see this behavior occur over and over again with the death crosses.

When a bounce occurs, those that do not understand charts (which is the majority of folks), will proclaim that technical analysis is rubbish. They will say the death cross declared misery ahead and instead the price rallies higher. All this confusion gives technical analysis a bad rap. There are simply too many people touting that they know what the charts say but they actually do not know shine from shinola. However, it makes things entertaining.

When price typically bounces as the death cross occurs, the key is to watch if price moves back above the 50-day MA. The only way the 50 could curl higher is if price ran back above this moving average. That would tell you that the death cross may be short lived. If price rolls back over to the downside after the short-term upside move, the death cross will remain in play and stocks will be weaker for weeks and months to come.

The green lines show a potential inverted H&S pattern developing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:48 PM EST: The RUT was taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten severely. The Russell 2000 loses 31 points, -2%, to 1496 in the Monday session testing the right shoulder of the inverted H&S.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Potential Inverted H&S

The red lines show the rising wedge pattern (along with the overbot conditions and negative divergence) that Keystone highlighted and explained, that created the spank down from the early October top.

Armchair technicians are now discussing the developing inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a bullish pattern. The head is at 2635 and neck line at 2815 which is a difference of 180 points. Thus, if price breaks out above 2815, the 3K level is on the table.

On the bear side, both the 50 and 200-day MA's are sloping negatively which is a bearish development. The 50 may come down for a death cross of the 200 in December. The bull's first goal that proves they have strength is to move price above the 200-day at 2761.

If price comes back down to the 2635-ish neighborhood, the inverted H&S pattern will be nullified. The pattern may actually morph into a W pattern bottom which is also an extremely strong bullish pattern. Of course if price falls through the 2635-ish support from late October, it's ovah. Stocks will take another major leg lower. The action since the October drop is sideways choppy slop that chews up bulls and bears alike. In this type of action, for proper risk management, you want to typically decrease your trading activity. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:48 AM EST: Stocks are trading on Monday. The SPX is down 7 points to 2729. VIX 18.71. The SPX remains below the key 12-month MA at 2750 which signals a cyclical (weeks and months) bear market ahead.

Note Added 7:34 PM EST: Stocks are smacked hard in the Monday session. The SPX plummets 46 points, -1.666%, to 2691. VIX 20.10.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The stock market bulls are slapped in the face day after day. S&P futures are down -10 heading into the Monday opening bell for the regular trading session. The VIX moved above the 200-day MA in early October; this is the exact time that the bears slit the bulls throat. The bears have been in control of the stock market ever since. Note that back kiss of the 200 seven days ago. The VIX came down for the back test and to make a bounce or die decision, and chooses to bounce from a 16-handle to the 23-handle stabbing the stock market bulls in the face.

The bulls battle back sending the VIX from 23 down to an 18-handle over the last couple days but bulls will not be able to enjoy a sustainable upside rally in stocks until the VIX falls below 16.31. VIX is currently trading at 19.01.

Keybot the Quant remains short the market but is champing at the bit to go long. For the volatility parameter, Keybot wants to see VIX below 14.95 before it will contribute to strong upside in stocks. Watch the 200-day MA at 16.31; it tells you if the stock market will trend up or down for the days ahead. Bears win with VIX above 16.31. Bulls win with VIX below 16.31. Bulls win big-time with a huge upside stock market rally perhaps into year end if the VIX drops below 14.95. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:39 AM EST: The S&P futures are down -7 and VIX is at 18.91.

Note Added 9:47 AM EST: Stocks are trading on Monday. The SPX is down 7 points to 2729. VIX 18.71.

Note Added 7:35 PM EST: Stocks are smacked hard in the Monday session. The SPX plummets 46 points, -1.666%, to 2691. VIX 20.10.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

Here is a look at the S&P 500 weekly chart. Remember Keystone calling out the top with the negative divergence back in September? Price receives the neggie d spankdown falling from the upper standard deviation band to the lower band. That placed a move to the middle band at 2820 on the table, at a minimum, and price came up last week to almost touch this level (look at the long shadow of last week's candlestick almost touching the middle band which is also the 20 MA).

Thus, the middle band at 2820 remains on the table. At the same time, respect has to still be given to the lower band at 2677 in the vicinity of those lows from 3 and 4 weeks ago.

When price made the matching and lower low three weeks ago, the RSI, stochastics and money flow show positive divergence (green lines) which created the price bounce. The MACD line and histogram, however, remain weak and bleak (red lines) and would prefer to see another low in price after this bounce in this weekly time frame.

The stochastics never really got oversold nor the RSI so that may still happen which would occur with lower prices. This week, the SPX failure at the 12-month MA at 2749 is the key negative development. The 12-month MA failure ushers in a cyclical bear market for the weeks, months perhaps years ahead. Bulls must regain 2749 or they are hopelessly in trouble for a long time to come.

The moving averages continue playing a key role in the price action;
50-day MA = 2822
20-week MA = 2820
100-day MA = 2820
150-day MA = 2785
200 EMA on the 60-minute chart = 2771
200-day MA = 2762
50-week MA = 2756
10-month MA = 2749
12-month MA = 2749; demarcation between a cyclical bull and bear
20-day MA = 2735
SPX begins Wednesday, 11/14/18, at 2722
20-month MA = 2645
100-week MA = 2591

The 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2771 tells you the short-term market direction which is down with price below 2771. The failure of the 2749-2762 support gauntlet, that is now a resistance guantlet, is a big deal. The 12-month MA failure is gravely negative for the stock market going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side yesterday at SPX 2761. The banks and retail stocks fail. Utilities failed but recovered. The key metric is the SPX 2749 level that separates a cyclical (weeks and months) bull from a cyclical bear. The SPX is at 2726 forecasting a cyclical bear market ahead. Bulls desperately need SPX above 2749 or their glory days are over. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Fibonacci Retracements; Moving Averages

The bulls and bears battle at key moving averages. The SPX drops to the 200-day MA at 2763 on Friday to make a bounce or die decision and booooiiiiiiinnnngg. Price bounces and runs above the 150-day MA at 2783, however, at the end of the session, the SPX slips away to close at 2781 below the 150. Watch this 2783 level closely on Monday. Stocks trade tomorrow but the bond market is closed for Veterans Day observance.

The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart is 2776 another super important near-term number. Thus, above 2784 the bulls will be throwing confetti, chugging Fed wine as if it was grape juice and buying stocks with both fists. If price cannot move above 2784, then it is going back down to the 200 EMA at 2776 for another kiss and bounce or die decision. If 2776 fails, stocks are in big trouble and price will drop to the 200-day MA at 2763 for a bounce or die decision. Equities will fall apart into mayhem and devastation if the SPX drops below the key 2753-2763 support gauntlet.

The red lines show the neggie d spankdown. The overbot conditions and red rising wedge pattern also create the smack down. Conversely, price falls into the green falling wedge, a bullish pattern, and the RSI and stochastics are oversold wanting a bounce. The green lines show the possie d that launched the SPX off the near-2600 bottom.

The MACD line remains long and strong and would like to see another higher high in price, in this daily time frame, after any weakness occurs for a day or three.

The blue lines show the Fibonacci retracements for the drop from 2937-ish to 2603-ish. The key Fib levels are 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. You can calculate them yourself by simply taking the distance of the drop, about 334 points, and applying the percentages. For example, the 50% retracement back to the upside after the big selloff is 167 points (334x0.5) and adding that to 2603 is 2770, voila, that is the 50% Fib retracement. Do the same for the other percentages. The 38% Fib is 2731 and the 62% Fib is 2810.

The S&P 500 ran higher to the 61.8% Fib retracement where it hit its head on the ceiling. Then the next day, last Thursday, price hit its head on the ceiling again. It is a tough resistance ceiling for the SPX to get up through. Bulls are tired after the two-day assault and they fall back on Friday to regroup.

Watch the 150-day MA at 2784 that tells you the stock market directional story for Monday. Bulls win above 2784. Bears win below 2784 (but actually need to drop below 2776). Watch the slope of that pink 150-day MA line going forward. It is sloping up so the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern. Bears need that 150-day MA line to flatten and then roll over with a negative slope that will usher in a sustainable cyclical bear market. Until then, the bulls are whistlin' Dixie. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 11/13/18, Before Opening Bell: Yesterday was carnage. The Dow fell 602 points. Blood is in the streets. The SPX 2776 failed, then the 2763 failed, then the key 2753-2763 support gauntlet gave way and boom; collapse occurs. The SPX drops to 2722 and closes at 2726 where today begins. 

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

Here is the SPX 1-hour with the 200 EMA cross that was posted a couple days ago. It is a useful tool in verifying the near-term bull market versus a bear market. Keystone said to watch for the back kiss in a couple days so here we are. Bulls were happy overtaking the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2776. Bullish joy exists above. Bears will growl for the hours and days ahead if the 200 EMA fails. Right now, price is at 2771 under the 2776 so the bears are throwing confetti into the weekend.

It is odd to see stocks selling off in front of a holiday weekend. The US bond market is closed on Monday for Veteran's Day (thanks to all the vets) but stocks will trade. The purple lines highlight the huge gap at 2747-2770. If the bottom would fall out of price right now, and the SPX would collapse immediately to 2747 and lower, that would be an island reversal pattern. Price is on an island right now above that purple support line.

Stock market bulls need the SPX to bounce right now and move above 2776 and higher to verify that more upside is ahead. Bears need to keep the SPX below 2776 which will lead to further deterioration in stocks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 11/11/18: The SPX ends the week at 2781 above the important 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2776. The bulls and bears battle all day Friday and the bulls cheer all weekend long. However, the S&P 500 could not close above the key 150-day MA at 2784. The bulls should have been able to find 3 more points but they could not. The slope of the 150-day MA remains positive which signals an ongoing cyclical bull market. Bears need the 150-day MA line to flatten and then roll over with a negative slope which would signal intermediate term (weeks and months) weakness in stocks. The snap-back rally in the S&P 500 over the last 1-1/2 weeks is astounding.

WTIC West Texas Crude Weekly Chart; WTIC Oil and Brent Oil Slip into Bear Markets

Oil is about to set a record for the sharpest fall in the quickest amount of time. Look at those red candles. Price bleeds lower for five solid weeks from the upper standard deviation band to the lower band. The middle band at 69.14 is on the table going forward.

The red lines show the negative divergence that slapped oil lower off the tops. You could see it coming a mile away. Indicators remain weak and bleak. Stochastics now oversold and agreeable to oil setting up for a bounce. Price may need to base for a couple weeks or more. The support at the blue line at 59.15 is on the table. Two hours ago, the action was dramatic;

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From Keystone the Scribe, Friday Morning, 11/9/18,

At 5:17 AM, WTIC oil falls below 60 to 59.91 and begins flushing lower. Oil is mired in a bear market. The Iranian sanctions are priced-in to oil markets but the waivers issued by the Whitehouse will create higher supply; hence, prices collapse. WTIC oil 59.77.

At 5:43 AM EST, boom. The bottom falls out in oil. The oil bulls are running for their lives. WTIC oil plummets to 59.28 and then spikes higher. That was a mini flash crash from 59.77 to 59.28. WTIC oil pops to 59.53 and climbs out of the hole. Brent oil collapses to 69.13 then recovers to 69.58 climbing higher. The world is awash in oil and global demand may not be as robust as touted. Falling prices are disinflationary and deflationary.

As the smoke clears, WTIC oil is down -1.5% to 59.78. Brent oil is off -1.2% to 69.78. 

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Bingo, the blue line is tagged a couple hours ago and price bounces. Considering that choppy sideways basing activity will likely continue for a couple weeks or month, the 57-58 level may hold as a base, if not, price may seek the 52-53 support.

WTIC oil is in a bear market down in excess of -20% from its top at 77. Brent oil slips into a bear market by a hair today off -20% from its top at 87.

The markets were pricing in the Iranian sanctions but then the Whitehouse throws a curve ball providing waivers to eight countries. This action will result in a larger supply on the market and prices collapse. Lower oil prices mean lower gasoline prices which means holiday spending will be buoyed. Oil and energy stock holders will be sad but consumers will be happy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 11/11/18: WTIC finishes the week down -4.666% to 60.19 with a low at 59.26. Brent oil drops -3.5% to 70.08.

SPX SP 500 2-Hour Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Upper Band Violation; Gaps

The SPX has rocket-launched off the bottom one week ago. Price runs higher and stops at the resistance level from mid-October. The important 100-day and 50-week MA resistance levels are at 2820-2822 so keep an eye on these two characters. They are gate-holders for a further rally higher in the stock market.

The stochastics and RSI are overbot agreeable to a pull back in price. Ditto the red rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. The red lines show neggie d with the histogram, stochastics and money flow. S&P futures are down -11 before the opening bell for the regular session so this neggie d creates this weakness. The long and strong RSI and MACD line say that price has enough energy to likely come back up again after any dip lower. The SPX will top in the 2-hour time frame when the RSI and MACD negatively diverge joining the other parameters. The RSI may turn neggie d in a couple candlesticks and the MACD a couple after that so 2 to 4 candlesticks is 4 to 8 hours of time which is today into tomorrow.

The bond market is closed on Monday for Veteran's Day (thanks to all the vets out there) but stocks will trade. Stocks are typically bullish the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend although it is only a long weekend for the bond traders. So the bulls have a seasonality factor slightly on their side. Stocks are usually buoyant into the Fed meetings. Stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon which peaked yesterday so perhaps some of that gloom contributes to the soggy futures.

Thus, due to the long and strong behavior on the RSI and MACD line, stocks may not peak for a few hours or a day or two. The Fed announcement is today so perhaps the movement in the indicators will condense tighter and create wild excitement.

When price rolls over, the gaps below (purple circles) will need filled. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 2747 and rising is on the table. Remember, the 12-month MA at 2755 is a critical cliff edge for the stock market. Bulls beat the devil this week pushing the SPX back above 2755. If the SPX fails again at 2753-2758, the stock market will be toast for many weeks, months and perhaps years ahead. The SPX is at 2814 as the Thursday session begins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bull side yesterday at SPX 2783. Bears need weaker banks and retail stocks while bulls need stronger chips, a higher NYA Index and lower volatility. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot theQuant

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

A key Keystone market signal for the short-term is the SPX cross of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart. It dictates the path ahead for the stock market for the hours and days ahead.

Whoa, wow, look at that. The SPX explodes above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2772. The bulls are throwing confetti and drinking Fed wine buying stocks at the ask. The bulls are unstoppable above 2772. There will be a back kiss so watch when that occurs to see if price will bounce or die. A bounce and it will be off to the races higher. A spankdown from 2772 and the bears begin to flex their muscles again.

The SPX left a gap behind big enough to drive a truck through at 2680-2700. That will need filled in the future. If price comes down to 2700, and then gaps back down to 2680 and lower, that would create an island reversal stock market pattern.

The stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern above the 12-month MA at 2753. Bears got nothing over the weeks and months ahead unless they push the S&P 500 under 2753; that is where the carnage begins.

Key moving averages;
20-week MA = 2820
100-day MA = 2819
150-day MA = 2781
200 EMA on the 60-minute = 2772
200-day MA = 2763
50-week MA = 2755
10-month MA = 2755
12-month MA = 2754

Look at that confluence of key support at 2754-2755. That is the most important level to the stock market since it separates the cyclical (weeks and months) bull market versus the cyclical bear market going forward. For the near-term, watch SPX 2772 as the rudder determining stock market direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:59 AM EST: The SPX is at 2779. HOD 2788. LOD 2774.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/8/18 Before Opening Bell: The SPX is at 2814. Equities melted-up yesterday afternoon after President Trump's press conference. Price blew through the moving averages listed above and bumps its head on the 100-day MA at 2820 and 20-week MA at 2822. The next battle on the top side is 2820-2822. The SPX recovered from the 12-month MA which is the stock market cliff edge. The stock market is now back in a cyclical bull market pattern. The SPX will likely test the key 2754-2758 area again and make a critical bounce or die decision for all the marbles. If the S&P 500 can remain above that 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2774, the bulls are on easy street and stocks will remain happy.This 200 EMA will receive a back kiss, perhaps today, from which price will bounce or die. A failure at 2774 opens the door for price to head back down to the important 2754-2758 support.

A Summary of America's Fake News Bias on Election Day 11/6/18

by K E Stone (Keystone the Scribe and The Keystone Speculator)

Non-biased news in America has gone the way of the penny loafer. Unbiased and impartial news reporting and journalism in the United States is as rare as hen’s teeth. Each news source you follow is slanting the news story towards either the Republican Party or Democrat Party manipulating American minds. What better day to review the circus than today, Mid-Term Election Day, 11/6/18.

The US is a two-party crony capitalism system. This article explains the news bias in the US that must be considered when absorbing any information on the internet, radio or television.

The democrat-leaning news sources will always tout former President Obama, Hillary Clinton and progressive and liberal ideals as the greatest thing since sliced bread while denigrating republicans. At the same time, the republican-leaning news sources place President Trump on a pedestal praising every decision as genius. The republican media touts conservative ideals (even though most republicans no longer believe in fiscal conservatism as evidenced by the obscene Keynesian spending over the last nine years by both parties) while bashing democrats. America has become very ill and divided.

The cable news networks practice news sensationalism to attract eyeballs since advertising fees, the mother’s milk of profits, are dependent on viewership. The lip gloss beauties reading the teleprompters display long sexy legs that attract viewers. One pair of shiny legs is longer than the next pleasing the majority of male viewers. Roger Ailes, that ran the Fox News media empire for many years but had to resign in disgrace, then croaked, professed the mantra that “legs equal viewers.”

Botox is on full display at the news networks with talking heads sporting foreheads tighter than a garage band’s snare drum. The female news readers don beautiful custom-tailored dresses at over $500 a pop that highlight their attributes. A first-year marketing student will tell you that “sex sells.” The news networks manipulate minds into loyal democrats or republicans.

News is entertainment nowadays when it used to provide level-headed facts. All news is biased in America. News organizations do not even attempt to hide it anymore. The teleprompter readers comment at the end of each news story reinforcing the network’s bias. It is standard fare for anchors to praise, or denigrate, each news story depending on the networks bias.

President Trump calls out the ‘fake news’ from CNN, MSNBC, the broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC), public television (NPR and PBS), New York Times, Washington Post (owned by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos a democrat) and others on a daily basis highlighting the exaggerated negative bias. The democrat-leaning media is relentless in denigrating Trump and hopes he fails and is removed from office. America used to support the president no matter what party is in the Whitehouse but not anymore. The country has changed. The republican and democrat tribes push their pet agendas instead of what is good for the country as a whole.

There are always two sides of the coin and President Trump conveniently ignores the fake news spewing daily from Fox News, Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin and others that denigrate the democrats while praising republicans and the decisions made by the orange-headed leader of the Free World.

Interestingly, most Americans prefer the middle ground and are very disturbed at the direction the country over the last couple decades. Independent voters are on the rise as many US citizens are fed up and do not want to be associated with either party and the political baby games. Many Americans do not realize that they are actually libertarians in their thinking wanting fiscal responsibility concerning government budgets and tax policy and at the same time do not care what people do in the privacy of their own bedrooms.

But enough of this windbag front matter; all you want to know is what the media bias is in America and who are the major players so without further ado lets expose the nasty truth about the United States media.

You may decide on different percentages of bias after reviewing the lists below but the most educated guess is that about 70% of the news in America is biased towards democrat, liberal and progressive minds while 30% of the news is biased towards republican and conservative thinking.

Democrat, Liberal and Progressive (Left-Leaning) News Outlets, Groups and Organizations Represent About 70% of the US Media

ABC (broadcast television dominated by the left)

CBS (broadcast television)

NBC (broadcast television)

PBS (pubic television)

NPR (public television)

CNN (cable television news)

MSNBC (cable television news)

Bloomberg (cable business news)

Reuters

Associated Press (AP)

New York Times

Washington Post

LA Times

San Francisco Chronicle

Boston Globe

USA Today

Huffington Post

Media Matters

Salon

Politico

Brookings Institute

The Economist

American Prospect

Reliable Sources (CNN)

Vox Media

Television Business

Movie Business

Music Business

Publishing Business

Hollywood

Pop Culture

Saturday Night Live (SNL) Comedy Show

Celebrities/The Aspen Elite

Silicon Valley

Facebook

Google

Colleges and College Professors

LBGTQ Community

Pro-Choice Advocates

Union workers and employees making minimum and low wages tend to favor the left.

The major US cities lean democratic including New York City, Boston, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, Seattle and Chicago. The states of Virginia, New York, California, Oregon and Washington are left-leaning.

Republican and Conservative (Right-Leaning) News Outlets, Groups and Organizations Represent About 30% of the US Media

Fox News (cable television news)

Rush Limbaugh (talk radio is dominated by the right)

Sean Hannity

Mark Levin

Glenn Beck/The Blaze

Laura Ingraham

Hugh Hewitt

Dennis Prager/Prager University

Mark Steyn

Breitbart

Drudge Report

Wall Street Journal (WSJ)

American Spectator

National Review

Washington Times

Daily Caller

Daily Wire

The Federalist

MediaBuzz (Fox News)

National Rifle Association (NRA)

US Chamber of Commerce

The Heritage Foundation

The Religious Right

Evangelicals

Pro-Life Advocates

Country Music/Patriotic Anthems

Auto Racing/NASCAR (National Association for Stock Car Auto-Racing)

Upper-middle class professional employees such as attorneys, doctors, engineers and accountants, and high-wage earners, tend to favor the right.

The Midwest and Rust-Belt cities, the Heartland (the center of the United States often referred to as the ‘fly-over country’), lean republican.

Assessing the news bias above yields 70% of media in the democrat camp and the other 30% in the republican camp. America is no longer united and instead has become tribal. Both the republican and democrat ‘tribes’ place their party ahead of what is actually good for the United States. This sad new face of America spells trouble for the United States going forward. Tribal allegiance rules the day. The unified America crumbles.

President Obama had a free ride during his eight years in office since 70% of the media was always on his side praising his decisions and covering up any mistakes. On the other side of the ledger, for example, republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was ridiculed daily by the liberal press during the 2012 presidential race; he never had a chance. It is like playing a football game where the referees are paid off helping one team win. Republicans are at a disadvantage since the news coverage is weighted towards the democrats.

President Obama was the first media selected and elected president in America’s history. Obama never cared much about what he said off the cuff since if he did misspeak, the liberal press would always protect him.

President Trump has a tougher row to hoe since only 30% of the media is supportive to his agenda while the other 70% denigrates the president every 10 minutes. Like it or not, many Americans must accept Trump as president and give him a chance for the sake of the country. President Trump won the election fair and square.

Many Americans receive their daily news from the broadcast television stations such as ABC, CBS and NBC which slant the news in favor of democrats while representing republicans in a bad light. The democrats hold the advantage in the media bias game.

This article changes the way you view the media and news outlets. Monitor the news sources listed above and the bias will smack you squarely in the face. As long as you know how the game is played, you can filter the news and not become a puppet of the establishment republicans and democrats that attempt to control your mind daily.

Use the above knowledge to filter out the news bias. Before consuming any news, first read the byline or reference the lists above to determine which news organization is peddling the left or right-leaning propaganda. Think objectively and independently. A smart American declares a pox on both the republican and democrat houses.