SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

The SPX monthly chart is super important going forward since it is helpful in calling THE top. Keystone has posted it several times over the last few months describing the topping process. We are now on the fourth month that price has made a matching or higher high. Therefore, the chart indicators can be assessed for potential neggie d and top call.

All the chart indicators are negatively diverged (red lines) except for the MACD line. Remember last month was the same set-up, that did fail, but the happy year-end talk, rate-cuts on tap, more QE on tap, and ongoing AI hype, collude to keep stocks elevated into January. The MACD line is the only snake in the woodpile and it is at nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down. It would be different if the MACD was at one or two-hundo heading higher (indicating that it may still have plenty of legs to go higher) instead of now where it is peaking now, in real-time, or will in a month or so if the MACD line still points higher on January 30th.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot open to a pullback on the monthly basis. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses out of rising wedges can be quite dramatic and this is a monthly chart. Are you ready to flush this turd?

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA, at 6109, and rising, is on the table going forward on the monthly basis as well as the lower band at 5147 and rising. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (10 MA above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200) requiring a mean reversion lower.

The ADX verifies strong trends, up or down, in the market and the pink box shows the last strong trend, that was up, was in 2018. That is funny. ALL the price action since 2019 is considered to not be a strong trend even though new record highs are printed. Keystone mentions now and then that the last legitimate top in the stock market was 2015.

The price action from 2015 to now is Fantasyland on easy money. No one really knows what anything is worth anymore since the obscene money-printing and monetary and fiscal stimulus for many years has destroyed all price discovery. What is your house actually worth? What are your stocks worth? What is the car you bought actually worth? We will find out over the next couple years. Hint; none of this material garbage is worth what you think it is.

The all-time record high in the SPX, the S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, is 6945.77 on 12/26/25 and the all-time closing high is 6932.05 on 12/24/25, bookending Christmas.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every single bull believes that stocks will continue higher on the monthly basis. The red line shows that every single bear believes that stocks will go up forever. That is funny. The bears are unanimous that stocks will continue higher and more bullish than the bulls. It is funny.

The January candlestick just started so there is a lot of month yet to play out. The SPX daily and weekly charts continue to want to see a spankdown begin and last for several weeks. This scenario fits perfectly with the neggie d on the monthly chart above. If stocks start puking their guts out this month, the MACD line can easily go neggie d and that would lock-in THE top right now. Put that in your bong and smoke it.

If not, and the MACD can make it to Jan 30th with that slight upside, it tells you that THE top will be delayed by a month or so (say 2 to 6 weeks). So she is at the doorstep and there is a great likelihood that the pullback is now and THE major top for the US stock market is now.

When she dies, remember, this is a monthly chart, so you are talking long-term pain. Maybe a few months, or couple-three years, or longer. The stock market may languish for a decade or two ahead. The United States is a country of old people now so the demographics are not in our favor going forward and especially with young men that do not know which end of a shovel to hold.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? That is easy. Sell, Mortimer, sell!!!  If you are new to trading and trying to get your sea legs, any long positions you own will likely lose money for several months forward. If you have enjoyed the easy stock market profits over the last 3 years, it would likely be prudent to exit stage left. February of last year Keystone told you it was like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. Honey, I'm home. Here we go again.

If you remain long with any individual stock, index or ETF, you are hoping for +5% or +10% of upside in the months ahead by taking on risk that you may lose from -10% to -80% on the downside. That is the definition of picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. But every stock trader and investor decries Keystone calling him a charlatan and doomster. It is blasphemy to talk down the US stock market! 

Some of you, are holding VOO, and that is the same chart and technical analysis as the SPX in lock-step. Thus, if you are in VOO, do not fall under a voodoo spell and siren call to stay long. Watch that MACD line in the above chart like a hawk; it is going to tell you when the major top is in place and it should be anytime forward.

Everyone talks about the new bill creating lots of economic activity, and big tax refunds coming, and other happy talk. I would like to sell you this AI pie in the sky. And some H200 chips out of the trunk of my car. Plan accordingly, folks. It is going to be a lot of fun. Even if you stay long, at least take on a couple inverse ETF's to cover yourself with a loin cloth.

King Donnie is making trouble down in Venezuela Nam. He said he will 'run' Venezuela so he better get busy since the grocery store shelves are empty especially due to recent hoarding as tensions rose. People are hungry. Trumpski cannot lower US grocery store prices but now he is in the grocery store business in Venezuela stocking shelves. It is ridiculous.

It will be interesting to see how the S&P and oil futures trade this afternoon. At 6 PM EST, in 9 hours time (it is 9 AM EST here on the East Coast), futures will trade and provide the first grade of the orange head's aggression against Venezuela. No doubt, King Donnie will spew some news, that will be positive as he can make it, between 3 PM and 6 PM EST today, to try and goose the futures in a positive direction. Let the festivities begin.

Watch the utilities closely since a breach of UTIL 1062 (or DJU 1062) will send stocks to Hell. The 10-mth MA at 6457 is an early warning system that the market is in bigtime trouble. That is still a ways away. The 12-mth MA at 6344, and rising sharply, dictates whether stocks are in a cyclical bull or bear market. Are we in Venezuela Nam? Oh Lord, we're stuck in Lodi again. Time to pull out the old Vietnam protest songs. It brings back a lot of memories. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.

SPX S&P 500 60 Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Bulls and Bears Battle for Short-Term Control of the Stock Market

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is a key short-term bull/bear market indicator. Keystone posted this chart as it failed mid-month but the rate-cut happy talk, QE light, ongoing AI hype, holiday joy, the Santa rally on tap, and euphoric optimism and complacency reverse the failure and maintain the short-term bull market.

Price gaps higher on 12/22/25 and price comes down to fill the gap. There is a big gap left behind on top at 6910-6930. The bears may be smart to fill that now, tap on 6920, and then begin the descent, however, there is no time line on filling gaps. Maybe that gap up top does not get filled for a few years?

King Donnie is striking Venezuela and kidnapped Dictator Maduro and his wife under the guise of fighting a drug war. The crowd cheers for "Sunday Bloody Sunday." Red Rocks is a beautiful venue. Hopefully, Venezuela does not turn out like Libya when Gaddafi was ousted from power. Or another Vietnam quagmire. Venezuela Nam. There is a power vacuum created so time will tell to see how it is filled.

Trumpski says he will run Venezuela so let the quagmire begin. When asked who would run the country, Trump pointed to the people behind them. Marco Rubio had a look on his face like, "What's this we sh*t, white man?" There is no plan. King Donnie says his cabinet can run Venezuela remotely? What could possibly go wrong? He also throws the Nobel Peace Prize lady under the bus. She may have not adored, bowed and kneeled enough when in the presence of the bloviating orange head.

The new New York Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, that sounds like a magician's stage name (it is pronounced by thinking about dear ole Mom and King Donnie Trump; say Mom-Donnie, Mom-Donnie, and the name is easy to pronounce and you will not forget how to say it), is sworn into office on the Quran. That is funny since the US Constitution is in direct conflict with that book but at the same time he swore allegiance to the Constitution.

You have to laugh since no one has the guts to call a spade a spade, therefore, everyone deserves what they will receive. He is lying about one or the other; either he believes in the Quran or he believes in the US Constitution. What's it gonna be, buddy? Take your pick. Sounds like Paradise by the Dashboard Light. What's it gonna be, boy, yes or no? The book is happy talk in the beginning but then the pages turn into 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel'. Good luck New York. 

In addition, it is perfectly acceptable to lie and deceive if the end result is promoting Islam. Taking the oath of office likely meant nothing to Mamdani. In the coming months, it will be known if he is governing as per the US Constitution, or, the Quaran. One thing is for certain; Mamdani would win a 'sh*t-eatin' grin' contest hands-down. He has that phony smirk, or sh*t-eating grin, locked in, while placing a hand on his heart, pretending he cares. The politicians are but bit actors. The futures will react to the weekend drama in Venezuela, New York, and elsewhere on Sunday night at 6 PM EST.

The SPX came down to tap on the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute at 6834, and bounced. The support held on the bear's first try. There will be more stabs at the 200 by the bears to see if they can weaken it enough to fall through.

SPX 6834 is the magic number. Write it on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. The LOD (low of day) is 6824.31 so write that on a sticky note and place it on your forehead. Stocks will likely be in a lot of trouble if 6824 fails. If so, the gap down at 6740-6760 will be on tap next.

Keystone was given a 'SPX 6.9K' hat that appropriately describes current conditions (see below). The screen-printer is hard at work on the 'SPX 7K' and 'SPX 7000' hats with over 10,000 already in stock in cardboard boxes ready to send to Wall and Broad. What could possibly go wrong?

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so the breach of 6800 opens the door to 7200. The SPX monthly chart will tell if this will occur, or not (the SPX may not hit 7200 for a few years; time is not a factor). All Wall Street analysts are forecasting SPX 7100-8100 for this year with no one predicting a down year (they do not because they are trying to attract money into their funds from Joe Sixpack and talking positively attracts more money than talking negatively; do you want to be with the group that is laughing and having fun talking positively (even naively) or the group that is listening to Gloomy Gus and Negative Nancy?). Keystone is predicting SPX 5220 for the end of the year and the stock market will likely drop far lower than that before recovering.

Taking it step by step, watch SPX 6834 since it tells you if the US stock market slips into a short-term bear market (that could develop into an intermediate and long-term bear). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.

Keybot the Quant Logs Another Banner Year Up +35% Outperforming the Benchmark SPX by Over 2x; SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Shows the Stock Market Turns in 2025

The SPX chart shows the Keybot the Quant stock market turns in 2025. Equities took the pipe at the start of the year collapsing to the April low. The AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people still spending money enjoying the wealth effect, and other happy talk, sends stocks higher with an above-average finish to the year for the SPX up +16.4%.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% and controls the actual trading that generated +35% outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more than 2x.

The funny thing about 2025 is how many common folks, with money in the stock market, brag and boast about the +16% return this year but when asked what they thought when they had lost -20% to -30% of their money in April, most are clueless. Some do not even know, or remember, that stocks had crashed in the springtime and others immediately proclaim that the stock market always goes up, as it proved in 2025. Wall Street trained the peons well.

For many decades, the US demographics were in our favor. Families kept expanding and so did technology and job opportunities. Productivity drives stock market gains. America is now an old folk's home. The senior Americans are the ones with all the dough in the stock market and that money will be needed for medical bills as the body gives out.

Further, many parents are helping their children get by in life and that will pull money from the market as the years roll forward. A barista at Starbucks, that they should call Tenbucks because that is what you usually spend when you walk in, is not socking away a couple grand per month into the US stock market going forward, as the wealthy folks pull money out.

Think twice about the standard mantra that stocks always go up going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting if the current highs in the SPX at 6900+, or 6900-7250, serve as a top for the next couple decades or more?

Bulls are in charge to begin 2026 but watch UTIL 1062 (utilities) and XRT 84.97 (retail stocks) since stocks will fall apart if either one is breached; big trouble if both give way.

Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so hopefully the emotionless robot will lead the way to another successful year ahead regardless of stock market direction. It does not matter which way the stock market goes, up or down; all that matters is that you are on the right side of the trade. Happy New Year and Good Luck in 2026. All is quiet on New Year's Day.... under a blood-red sky..... New Year's Day by U2.

CRWD CrowdStrike Daily Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing; Potential H&S; Potential Island Reversal; Gap

CrowdStrike is another hotshot stock nowadays. It is a company with its head in the cloud and everyone says it is the best thing since sliced bread. Barron's calls it a top pick. Pause for laughter. Keystone has heard many folks repeat the same story over the years that they followed some of the so-called Barron's tips only to lose their shirts. Barron's is a fade.

CRWD has ran to the moon like other tech stocks; the employees walk proudly in their fleece sweaters sporting the company logo. Price pulled back to a bottom at Labor Day and then off to the races higher again with the buy the dip crowd tripping over each other to buy Crowd. Boom. The orgy gets wild as price gaps-up from 450-ish to 470-ish. If you went to the can, or stopped at the break room for a cup of coffee, by the time you returned to your desk, CrowdStrike was 20 bucks higher. The bulls got even more excited jamming price to the record top at 565-ish in an orgy so obscene it would make Caligula blush.

But alas, all party's end, and the orgy was over due to the negative divergence (red lines). Price prints the record high but all the chart indicators are sloping down, negatively diverging away from price that is moving higher. The neggie d is always correct and voila, price receives the spankdown in the daily time frame.

When price gapped-up to 470, it remains above, thus, it is on an island above 470, with a coconut tree. Keith Richards fell out of a coconut tree. Respectable. That's rock 'n roll. All gaps get filled eventually. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone did not receive an invitation to the fun New Year's party Three Doors Down, price will either drift lower to fill the gap at 450-470, or, price will collapse from 470 to 450 in a heartbeat, gapping-down, thereby creating an island reversal pattern. You can watch to see which scenario plays out. The bulls want to delay either outcome by sending price sideways.

The potential head and shoulders (H&S) pattern has a head at 560 and neckline at 470-ish. If you drill down closely, you can see that the armpit touches are more like 476-ish, exactly where price is now. It is deciding if it can bounce, or if it will die and allow the H&S to play out. The distance from neck to head is 85 to 90 points so a collapse through 470-476 would target 380-390. You can play around with the numbers.

So all that mumbo-jumbo above is the backdrop to CrowdStrike's drama. What is the path ahead? The weekly chart is weak so more lows would be expected going forward on the weekly basis that means that the H&S will play out over the weeks ahead. However, the daily chart above is trying to set up with positive divergence to allow a relief rally for a few days or week or two first. CRWD is trying to hold the line at 470-476 with all its might.

The problem is that possie d cannot set up unless price makes a lower low and that would mean it would have to drop below the 470 neckline. CrowdStrike may be putting off the inevitable with the sideways stutter the last couple weeks. It is likely time to take the medicine. The expectation is for weaker prices going forward this year. The weekly chart wants some more downside but the monthly chart is also nothing to write home about and this is likely a stock that you do not want to own for the long-term, despite what every analyst and television pundit tells you. Keystone is not long or short CRWD and has never played it.

Day traders can watch the above set-up description and play the possie d on the daily for a quick upside trade, when it sets up, that would be risky and require nimbleness. There are better trades to play. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 1/3/26: CRWD drops to 453 with a low at 449. The neckline of the H&S is lost so the downside target of sub 400 is in play. Since price filled the gap, it is a simple gap-fill and not an island reversal.

APP Applovin Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Applovin Will Not Feel Any Lovin'

Keystone does not know Applovin from Shinola but by the looks of the APP weekly chart, it is a piece of crap that has started to receive a neggie d spankdown. The multi-week pullback has started and price should next fall below the bottom rising wedge line. Rising wedges are bearish and the drop out of the wedge can be quite dramatic sometimes.

Applovin is a mobile technology stock involved in advertising or some such rot. It is just another tech company where the employees are all young men with short haircuts walking around in fleece vests that sport the company logo. In a slow economy, the first thing cut is the advertising budgets.

The blue line show a textbook diamond continuation pattern that no one noticed. It resolved with higher prices after it exited the diamond in July. When APP peaked in late September, the MACD was still long and strong. Price was kicked lower due to the negative divergence with the other chart indicators but the MACD had enough juice to help price recover for one more high on the weekly basis and voila, APP comes up again for the high last week, and the MACD goes neggie d joining all other indicators. She's cooked on the weekly basis. Stick a fork in it.

The money flow is also showing lower lows so this metric wants to see further weakness even if price is buoyed for a few days or week or so. Look how the volume deteriorated all year long.

Applovin, you will need some lovin' after you are taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten like a rented mule. The name always sounded odd because the memory is triggered with some kind of 'lovin' thing then you remember 'McLovin'. Nerdy McLovin is the hero. McLovin's two little screams during the scuffle in the kitchen are priceless.

The APP stock is referred to as unstoppable. According to the neggie d on the chart above, plain as the nose on your face, that would be an incorrect statement. APP is very stoppable and it has already started to receive its neggie d spankdown on the weekly basis. Run for your life especially if long and if you made a lot of money. If you entered it recently, get out because you will lose your shirt. Keystone is not long or short APP and has never played it; the only position to consider is short going forward for the next few weeks.

The APP daily chart went neggie d and that joins the negativity above to create the multi-week smack down expected going forward. Money flow, stochastics and the histogram are all making lower lows on the daily chart and the RSI and MACD line are about to follow suit that means a lot more downside ahead. This stock is a turd. If you remain in Applovin, you are the bagholder.

If you rode the stock from 50 to 700 or from 100 to 700, be happy and move on. It will be several weeks before it rights itself. Do not dilly-dally because price may take a wicked quick fall from that rising red wedge. Pretty and talented artist Jenny Lewis is about to get wicked. She is lying on her bed. Halleluiah. Red Bull & Hennessey. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 1/3/26: Applovin places its head in the oven collapsing -8.2% on Friday to 618 with a LOD at 610. Applovin is feeling no lovin' from Jenny. The rats are scurrying from the aft of the sinking APP ship.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; All-Time High 6945.77 on 12/26/25; All-Time Closing High 6932.05 on 12/24/25; Wall Street Analysts Predict SPX 7100-8100 in 2026; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Trip Top?

The Santa orgy continues. Ho, ho, ho's. The Santa rally runs from Christmas Eve through the first couple trading days of the new year. Two days of the Santy rally are under our belts, the belts that are now loosened a couple notches from all the food, cake, pies and candy. It is best to wear pants with an elastic waistline for Thanksgiving and Christmas feasts. Keystone also has pants with plastic-lined pockets so he can take a few drumsticks home. The SPX was up +0.3% on the Eve and flat on Friday so the Santa Claus rally is currently up +0.3% with 5 more trading days to play out. Marginal gains typically occur during this period of the year and that is what most traders and analysts expect.

The first full week of trading for 2026 begins on Monday, 1/5/26, and the US Monthly Jobs Report drops on Friday, 1/9/26. There are 3 trading days remaining in 2025. The 2026 trading year begins on Friday, 1/2/26.

The all-time record high for the SPX (S&P 500 Index; the US stock market) is 6945.77 that printed on Friday, 12/26/25 when Keystone was celebrating the start of the made-up holiday of Kwanzaa wearing a colorful headdress and banging on bongo drums. The party is well underway when the ladies arrive and begin dancing. Kwanzaa is a party every day through New Year's Day; work is overrated. It is time to light the kinara (stop laughing). It is a made-up holiday so you can make-up what ever you want about Kwanzaa. Keystone also gave the servants their Christmas boxes and the day off for Boxing Day but told them not to be even one minute late for work tomorrow morning or they will be docked pay. Merry Christmas. The all-time closing high for the SPX is 6932.05 on 12/24/25, Christmas Eve.

The major topping action continues for the last 4 months at 6500-6900. It is an odd animal. The holiday euphoria, AI hype news, complacency and belief that nothing will go wrong, rate-cut salivating, and rich people continuing to spend money, maintain the stock market highs and create the all-time record highs that bookend Christmas.

Triple tops do not exist. That is an old saying in the stock market. It means that price will continue higher from the third peak, rewarding the bulls, and thereby nullifying the trip top. Is it true? The SPX prints a trip top now. There were three H&S patterns trying to form since October but the happy talk negates those fledgling head and shoulders patterns. Then it was a double-top or M-top with the two peaks you see, but price begins a rally into Christmas that starts to display the triple top.

The jolly price action at Christmastime shows why triple tops do not exist (price is punching higher). But will it continue? Price tags the upper standard deviation band and that may be the key reason price wanted to poke up a bit higher and deliver record highs into the Christmas stockings. Keystone received coal in his Christmas stocking hanging on the mantle. There was also a gum wrapper, cigarette butt, and a white hairy lint thing that may have been picked from Santa's beard, verifying Keystone's naughtiness and low opinion of his behavior in 2025.

The middle band at 6848, and rising, and the lower band at 6748, are on the table as potential downside targets going forward. We will know in only a day or two if the trip top holds, or not. Over the years, Keystone has found that about one-half the time the trip top holds and about one-half the time it does not. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed.

Remember the bounce in November off the 100-day MA and horizontal price support? The 100-day MA at 6671, moving higher, is important going forward. Ditto the support at the 20-day MA at 6848 (same as middle band) and the 50-day MA at 6790. Of course, the 6550 level is for all the marbles. Once that fails, it is over for the stock market.

The ADX shows that the last strong trend higher for the US stock market was July. That petered out in August and has trailed lower ever since despite record highs. As Billy wrote in Hamlet, "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark." There are lots of gaps (orange) that need filled down below. 

The red lines clearly show negative divergence for all the chart indicators as price makes the higher highs. A neggie d spankdown is expected going forward. It is comical that each time the negativity kicks into gear, the AI hype and rate-cut happy talk saves the day, along with the Federal Reserve holding its jackboot on the throat of volatility to make sure stocks remain buoyant.

The weekly chart remains in negative divergence. It is ugly stuff and yet stocks float higher and higher in my beautiful bubble balloon. Up, Up and Away. Everyone is riding stocks higher in that big beautiful balloon. Wheee! Whoopie! We can fly!! Wheeee! La, la, la. Irving Fisher's ghost appears from 1929 announcing that the SPX 6900 level will serve as a permanent plateau and stocks will never drop below there again. Love is waiting in my big beautiful stock balloon, join us, come on now, one and all, invest your life savings in stocks as the investment houses sneak out the back door.

The PE is running at about 23 and with earnings at 300 that gives SPX 6900. The Wall Street hot-shot analysts and strategists are out with their 2026 predictions calling for the S&P 500 to end the year between 7100-8100. Of course it is all upside because the investment houses want your money and it is more attractive to be bullish to attract investors rather than being a Gloomy Gus. It is the way the crony capitalism filth game is played. The average prediction for next year by the hot-shot analysts and strategists is SPX 7650. That represents an expected +11% gain in stocks for 2026.

Since the PE is at nosebleed levels, the earnings will have to go up that means the rich will have to keep spending to keep the US turd afloat even after they blew their wad on Christmas and holiday gifts. Do you think that is logical? With the PE at 23, and a target at 7650, that means earnings will be 333 or an +11% gain in earnings in 2026.

If the PE drops back to a more normal 18 and say earnings hang in there, or leak a bit, say 290, that would place the SPX down at 5220. That sounds like a good number. Keystone's prediction for the end of 2026 is SPX 5220 or lower. Keystone's back is against all of Wall Street as usual, but a speculator lives for the fight. Sounds like a song by Son Volt. Back Against the Wall. Is darkness at your doorstep? Would you recognize it? How will you know?

There are no bears remaining on Wall Street. Everybody and his bro remain euphorically bullish and complacent refusing to believe that anything bad will happen. What, Me Worry? In the mother of all tells for the stock market, notable short-seller Carson Block at Muddy Waters Research has thrown in the towel proclaiming last week on business television that investors should not short the market and instead remain long stocks. That is called complete capitulation. The last remaining bear on Wall Street packs his suitcase and leaves town.

Keystone luckily saw Muddy Waters play a couple years before he passed. Joe Bonamassa did a great tribute with "Tiger in Your Tank" from Red Rocks. They are blues masters. Okay honey, come on over here, it is time to check your oil, and clean your carb.

The holidays are fun and enlightening. Folks are happy they are making their +10% to +15% in stocks this year but when asked how they felt in the spring when they lost -20% to -30% of their money, the deer in the headlight looks were priceless. What drop? Who? When? Did that happen? Many people do not even realize that the big drop occurred in the stock market this year. The ones that did, quickly said they did not care because it (the stock market) will automatically come back (that it did and then some).

Americans are trained to think that way but we are becoming a nation of old folks. When the population was running higher rapidly and productivity gaining, the sky was the limit for stocks. Going forward, the older folks with all the wealth in the stock market will exit stage right to pay their increasing health bills and to support their kids that cannot support themselves in this new America. The young barista with massive college debt is not socking away a thousand or more bucks per month into the stock market. Today's vibe is a lot like the 1970's the last time the split between rich and poor was at a super wide level. The US is the land of the have's and have-not's. That is not going to go on forever, kiddo's.

You can keep watching the Santa rally and see how it stacks up through Monday, 1/5/26. You can watch the trip top to see if it is a triple top, or not. You can watch to see if the neggie d spankdown kicks into gear. There will be lots of excitement ahead. The charts are sick but the happy talk is enough to keep putting off the inevitable.

The January barometers will be watched where the first week in January usually tells you how the month plays out and the month of January typically tells you how the year will play out. These metrics are not of much use but people will watch and comment on them. 

It is time for the end of year montages showing all the key events of 2025. Of course, there will be the funeral montage, with touching sentimental piano music in the background, displaying all the people that croaked this year. The Cure just lost band member Perry Bamonte at 65 years young. All you can do when old, is sit and look at the photographs, and remember the memories. Pictures of You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/30/25, at 2:56 AM EST: The SPX drops -0.4% to 6905 so the triple top remains in play. Is there no such thing as a triple top? The Santa Claus rally that runs from Christmas Eve through the first 2 days of the new year is now a smidge negative with 4 more trading days to play out. Let's pull a better number off the charts. At the start of the Santy rally on Christmas Eve, the SPX was 6909. Now it is 6905, so a drunken Santa stumbles losing 4 points so far for his once per year rally; call it a smidgeon negative with 4 trading days ahead for jolly St Nick to redeem himself..

NVDA NVIDIA Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Bubbleicious

Sweet NVIDIA, the AI chip phenom, we hardly knew ye. It was fun while it lasted, honey. What an impressive run from one buck in 2016 to two hundo this year a +20,000% gain. Investing $10K in NVDA back in 2016, trusting in Jensen that wears a black leather jacket instead of fleece, would have given you $2 million dollars today. That is enough to sing a Johnny Paycheck song. Take This Job and Shove It. Even a grand to NVDA a decade ago would have put over $200K in your pocket now. Alas, all good things must come to an end.

The AI hype is going strong. Everybody and his brother wants in on the action. The Uber driver and doorman at the hotel both placed their entire paychecks into NVDA stock last week. The people on television say you cannot go wrong (as they pump and dump). The Blackwell chips are flying off the shelves faster than doughnuts at a Weight-Watchers convention. Lying communist China says they will buy the orphan H200 chips. The Rubin chip is on the way and it runs hot like the others so you can heat a Reuben sandwich on top.

Keystone previously posted the NVDA weekly chart describing the November neggie d top. Here is the link. NVDA continued lower but it really has been sideways for the last month. NVDA was goosed last week on the daily and weekly charts by the news of a licensing deal with chip startup Groq (not Grok). Analysts proclaim that the deal increases NVIDIA's dominance in AI. Dominance? Sounds kinky. Who's on top? All that the deal means is that there is another company wanting to join the AI financial circle jerk. Ante up.

The charts incorporate all information known, and even unknown since price and volume do not lie, about a ticker or index at any given time. The only savior for NVIDIA now would be some type of super positive news that can give it some life for a few more months. Barring that, NVDA is in trouble and topped-out on a monthly basis. This means that a multi-month down move will begin any time forward so 2026 will be a far sh*ttier year for NVIDIA than anyone expects.

Let's dissect the chart above. No not like a frog. Do they still dissect frogs in high school? Probably not since everything is baby-fied these days. Many decades ago, in 10th grade, we were split in groups of five that circled around each lab table. The frog, smelling of formaldehyde, was stretched out in front of us ready for a brave student to begin the cutting and examination of organs. We did not wear gloves. The girls were squeamish so Keystone gladly handled the scalpel wanting to look macho for pretty Vanessa that was luckily in his group.

Anyhoo, the chart is ugly. It displays overbot RSI and stochastics agreeable to a pullback on the monthly basis. The rising red wedge pattern is bearish. The upper standard deviation band is violated so a trip to the middle band at 143, and rising, and even lower band at 83, and rising, are on the table for the months ahead. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon desperately needing a mean reversion lower.

The red lines show the negative divergence sealing the fate of NVDA on the monthly basis. The current candlestick is December, with only 3 trading days remaining in the year, so it will be cast in concrete on Wednesday. That Wednesday chick is real popular nowadays with the teeny-bopper crowd. Great to see them grooving on an old Cramps song, Goo Goo Muck. So watch the chart closely next Friday as 2026 trading begins and the following week when a new monthly candlestick will be underway. You can check to make sure the neggie d remains in play as does the top for NVDA on the monthly basis.

The down candlestick in red is November and if you go back one more it is the October top. Price makes the matching high but note the MACD line that also made a higher high; it was still long and strong and wanted to see another matching or higher high in price ahead. Typically, this behavior needs a jog move (down one month up the next) to set the chart up with universal neggie d across all indicators including the MACD line that means the stock is toast.

So price oscillates in November and makes the matching high so the indicators can be checked again to see if the MACD line is negatively diverging away from price (sloping down). That tiny red line shows that it is. Stick a fork in it. It's cooked. All the indicators are neggie d as price made the new high. The only thing that can save it is super happy talk. The announcement the other day created joy but will it be enough to goose price far higher. It already seems like that happy talk is priced-in.

The Aroon shows that nearly all the NVDA bulls continue to believe that the stock will go up forever, and comically 100% of the NVDA bears believe that the stock will go up forever. Everyone is partying on one side of the boat scoffing down Blackwell and Rubin chips but guests are starting to complain that their mouth is burning because the chips are too hot. Oh no, someone just chipped their tooth on the H200 chip that should have not been in that bowl to begin with since it is stale.

Lots of fun is ahead for NVDA that is topped-out on the long-term monthly basis and beginning a multi-month spankdown barring any super-duper happy talk in the days ahead. Plan accordingly if you own it or if you made all that dough on the way up. Keystone is not holding NVDA long or short right now and has no plans to play it. The charts will be watched to see if a shorting opportunity presents itself on the hourly and daily charts. Sorry to report the bad news, sweet NVIDIA. We hardly knew ye. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 12/30/25, at 3:10 AM EST: NVDA is at 188.22 coming down yesterday to tap on the 50-day MA support at 186.19; this is important support that must hold for the bulls going forward. Bring up a NVDA weekly chart and show the standard deviation lines. Wow. The bands have come in super-tight. Get the popcorn ready. A huge move, on the weekly basis, is about to begin and likely run for the next month or two. The tight bands squeeze price wildly in one direction or the other and only predict a large magnitude move but do not predict direction. Bulls better hope that Jensen has some great news this week like a new chip after Rubin, or something else spectacular, to make the move higher out of the tight bands. Barring that happy talk scenario occurring, NVIDIA may have a religious experience at the start of 2026 (huge pullback on the weekly basis). Simply watch the tight bands and see which way price starts to run, on the weekly basis. The two prior weeks hint that the move may explode higher, but this week that joy fizzles slightly as price stutters at 188. Bulls likely win and huge gains higher are ahead if price moves above 197-200. Bears likely win and will bludgeon the stock if price falls below 167. It is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit. It is 197 versus 167 with price beginning at 188. Let the festivities begin.

Note Added Saturday, 1/3/26: NVDA 188. The cage match for al the marbles continues. The crowd grows larger with the bulls holding up green 197 signs and the bears holding up red 167 signs.

The Federal Reserve Follies and Fed Chairman Candidate Contestant Reality Television Show

By K E Stone (Keystone)

King Donnie continues his search for the next Federal Reserve chairman. Call it the Federal Reserve follies for the last half-year and more. Every day Donnie must deliver a new episode for his reality television show presidency. That is why he opens 52 boxes at once, like a little rich kid, so there are plenty of side plots and action so the camera can be shined on his orange head every day sometimes several times per day.

One of the key subplots in the Donnie tv show is the search for the new Federal Reserve chairman. Chairman Powell's term expires on 5/15/26 so he is a short-timer now with only about four months and change remaining in his tenure. Trump puffs his chest and bloviates this year that he wanted Powell out of office immediately because he would not lower rates fast enough to goose the economy and stock market with easy money.

Trump is a real estate guy; he loves debt. Donnie does not care about the potential for steady, or increasing, inflation due to easy monetary conditions; it is all about the short-term and here and now. The mid-term elections are in November when the people typically flip control of either the House or Senate to the other corrupt political party. Trump wants lower rates now since it will take time to filter into the economy to make everyone happy when they walk to the voting booth in only 10 months. If the economy is not picking up, with lower inflation, with plenty of jobs, by July 4th Independence Day, when Donnie will be leading the country with the 250th celebrations, the retrumplicans will be in trouble. Will anyone be in a festive mood?

Trump promised to bring prices down on day one of his presidency that is another failed goal like ending the Ukraine War in 24 hours. He knew it was campaign lies but they worked since he got elected. They all lie so it makes no difference. The orange head can cover himself with a loin cloth bragging that a dozen eggs are cheaper and oil/gasoline prices have dropped, but what else ya got? People cannot afford to live as Donnie jet sets around the world making deals for himself and grifter family.

That is likely why he kisses Dictator Putin's dupa daily because he knows the war will eventually end and he wants the Trump family grift to be in Russia after that for decades to come handling multi-billion real estate ventures. Russia is a huge land mass. Donnie likely figures it will be a legacy to his family and the Trump name while common American citizens are riding in the back of his bus.

Anyhoo, back to the Fed, hey stupid people, did you wonder why there are only five candidates for the Fed chairman follies? That is a thin group that Trump has to pick from but there are many highly-qualified people that would like to, and could, serve as chairman but want no part of the daily Donnie prima donna drama. Prima Donnie. That is funny.

The five names on the Fed chairman list are Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock Manager Rick Rieder. Bowman lives up to her namesake and bows-out so then there were four. What silliness. While the candidate contestant tv drama continues, Trump throws in a plot-twist, and makes it clear that he wants Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as chairman. The spectacle is a joke and only orchestrated to keep the American people watching the presidential television reality show, and especially the orange head, daily.

Bessent has made it clear that he does not want the chairman job. Of course he does not. It is stupid to expect him to take the job. By refusing, Bessent also makes it clear that he is moving on from the Trump administration after the November election. Bessent is looking at things from the perspective that he will serve another year and then he is ditching the Whitehouse popsicle stand. A treasury secretary serves at the pleasure of the president so Bessent could leave tomorrow or anytime; it is not a term position. He has freedom on when to quit.

The Federal Reserve chairman job is a four-year gig. Use your common sense. Why would Bessent sign-up and commit his life for four years to argue with a bunch of academics sitting around a conference room table? Bessent will be gone this time next year and likely start-up another hedge fund and immediately bring in hundreds of millions of dollars. What path do you think he is going to take? And Donnie is a lame-duck with only three years remaining (Bessent would still be stuck in the chairman job for another year after that).

Kevin Hassett is the inside man, literally, at the Whitehouse each day orange-nosing (versus brown-nosing) the president. He has giddy-up in his step the last couple months beaming with pride that it appears he is Donnie's top choice for Federal Reserve chairman. Over the last couple weeks, however, Trump appears a bit more hesitant, so additional meetings are scheduled with the other remaining candidates.

Despite Hassett's prior experience at the Fed, and his economics and markets experience no one can take away, he is perceived as a kiss-*ss that will do whatever his master King Donnie tells him to do. Trump is doing a great job at destroying Federal Reserve credibility. Hassett now becomes a tricky choice since he will be immediately perceived as Trump's little lackey.

So the prima donna Donnie drama silliness continues. Creating more television drama, Trump proclaims just before Christmas that anyone that disagrees with him will not head the Federal Reserve. King Donnie declares that Powell is a "numbskull" and a "major loser." Trump is an 80-year old child. It is funny to watch. Which candidate will sell their soul to be Donnie's little b*tch for the next three years?

Waller was Trump's initial focus and pick but Donnie changes his mind like a teenage girl changes her outfits. Waller wanted lower rates a couple-three months ago but has since tamed that view so that does not fit the Donnie Trump pedal to the metal lower for rates scenario he wants to play out ahead; inflation be damned.

Rick Rieder is a funny selection. He is a bigtime Wall Street guy that does not plan to be Donnie's little boy for the next three years of his life. Rieder likely stayed in the game to increase his name recognition and receive free publicity for BlackRock. The interesting sidebar is that Rieder was invited to the Whitehouse, in the days ahead, and that was before Trump basically saying that whoever he picks is going to be his little b*tch, so will Rieder even show up to the meeting after that comment? If so, we can call him subservient Rick.

Then there is Kevin Warsh. He championed common sense 15 years ago, like many of us, when it was the last chance to save the crony capitalism system, but does he sing from a different hymn sheet these days? Dovishness and Warsh do not seem to go together since he was more on the fiscal hawk side. Maybe he changed over the years? Did he? Maybe he has a continued lust for power and wants to get back into the game again even if he has to play submissive to Donnie Trump? It is interesting.

Or is Warsh sly like a fox telling King Donnie what he wants to hear to get the gig, and then simply doing what he thinks is best for the country when he is the new chairman, be it lowering, or even raising rates? Once he started a four-year term, it would be difficult for Trump to oust him (there has to be cause like an actual criminal offense). Warsh is the interesting and mysterious candidate, perhaps a Manchurian Candidate, but his game may be for good and wanting to get into the key position to help rebuild America's fiscal house the right way, not the Donnie way? It was strange when Warsh's name was announced as a candidate since he does not fit that typical kiss-*ss mold.

Trump is no dummie and he can read people well. That is why he wants to talk to these folks in person to feel the vibe. Trump will likely not trust Warsh and not pick him. Hassett is the kiss-*ss that starts with zero credibility as chairman if he is selected. There is no one remaining folks. It is a matter of whether Donnie will trust Waller to perform his bidding and that will likely not be the case. Waller is a smart economics and markets guy and will not want to toss his reputation in the trash can dirtying it up as Trump's errand boy. After it is said and done, Donnie will likely pick Hassett and start a campaign to paint him in an independent light even though everyone knows he is Trump's lackey.

For the country, Warsh and Waller would both be good picks. Hassett is compromised, Bessent already plans to fly the coop by this time next year, and Rieder simply likes the notoriety and will be able to charge more for speaking fees in the future. This is the picture of America's crony capitalism system, folks. It is what it is.

Chairman Powell's term as chairman ends 5/15/26 but he can remain a Fed board member until January 2028 when that term expires. He will not. Dollars to doughnuts that Powell will be out that door so fast in May all you will see is the swinging screen door.

The next FOMC meeting days that may provide changes to the rates are 1/28/26 (a month away), 3/18/26, 4/29/26 and 6/17/26. Thus, Powell will have his farewell speech ready to go for the late April meeting that will be his send-off after eight years (two four-year terms) in the top job. The new Fed chairman will conduct the first meeting in mid-June. The economy will already be on its path by then, good or bad, and will impact voter decisions in the Fall.

The Fed follies have been a ridiculous show of Donnie Trump stagecraft, showmanship and theater. Isn't it sickening? Do you waste your life following such dribble? In the summertime, Trump and Bessent proclaim that a new Fed chair will be named before September to put pressure on Powell to cut rates. Then instead of September, the new pick for chairman will be announced in the Fall, then it was by Thanksgiving, then before Christmas, then by the end of the year, do you suckers follow this daily dribble and trash?, if so, God Bless you, and the latest is that the pick for the new Fed chairman will be announced after the first of the year. This is likely a lie, too, since Trump still has to conduct the interviews. It is hard to keep the lies straight and once someone starts lying in life, it is difficult for them to stop.

Trump calls the Fed chairman "Too-Late" Powell because Donnie believes that he is lowering rates too slowly and is late to the game in stimulating the economy (an economy that Trump brags about claiming it is the best ever and the stock market is at record highs; if so, why do you need the cuts, Jack?). Donnie is "Two-Week" Trump. Every answer to a question is that he will have a response and information in two weeks but that deadline is never met. Such is Trumpworld, a circus like Wally World.

More fun will begin soon. When Trump knights the candidate be it Hassett, Waller or Warsh, will King Donnie then apply more pressure to Powell to have him quit immediately and allow the new chairman to takeover? Powell is not going anywhere. The crony capitalism filth system degrades society into a 'what have you done for me lately' mentality. It is disrespectful to ask Powell to leave a couple months before his eight-year term ends. Powell is a reserved man but no doubt he wishes he could tell Trump where he could put his calls for resignation.

So the Federal Reserve follies, the chairman candidate contestant reality television show, is coming to the season-ending finale. It is likely a pick between Hassett and Waller, or if a new candidate surfaces that would be par for the course in the Hall of Mirrors in Trump World. The prima donna Donnie drama continues with Two-Week Trump hassling Too-Late Powell for a few more months.

The orange head will likely not pick the new chairman before the FOMC rate meeting at the end of January, so the next deadline by Two-Week Trump will be that he will announce the new Fed chairman in February. It is actually getting close now to making a mandatory decision about the chairman job because a couple-three months are needed to allow for a smooth transition. Can't Believe We're Here. Not sure what the point is.

Note Added Tuesday, 12/30/25: King Donnie attacks Chairman Powell again from his Mar-a-Lago resort calling the Fed chairman "incompetent" repeatedly. Donnie is always the little tough guy with words. The orange-headed bloviating carnival clown proclaims that he will bring a "gross incompetence" lawsuit against Powell to get him out of office. In the next breath he says, "I would love to fire him, but we're so close." In other words the idiot says he is bringing a lawsuit and in the next breath says time is short for Powell so he may as well wait for his term to end to install a new chairman. Trumpski is a confused old man that loves to bloviate. Here is the Yahoo Finance link where you can listen to the confused King Donnie. Obviously, he is setting up Powell as the scapegoat for when the economy and markets fall apart. Trumpski will 100% blame Powell for any downturn in the economy after he will claim that the economy was the best in history following his edicts. The Fed drama also provides filler, a sub plot, for the presidential reality television show. On a slow news day, Hollywood Donnie can bloviate about the Fed to gain attention and create the need for the cameras to videotape his orange head and broadcast his words. Adoration is Donnie's daily fuel. All you can do is mock and laugh at the mess. It is crony capitalism filth in its final stage. Continue hoping and praying that King Donnie does not get us into World War III and/or Great Depression II but the odds are high that he is stumbling that way working on a twofer.

SILVER Daily and Weekly Charts; Parabolic Rise in Silver

Silver and gold, silver and gold, everyone wishes for silver and gold, as Burl would sing. Republican Speaker Johnson is feeling heat for not bringing up bills in the House and instead simply acting as King Donnie's errand boy. The House may be looking for a new leader in the new year and Mikey may have to return to his role as Hermie, the elf that wanted to be a dentist, in that Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer Christmas classic (see below).

Anyhoo, silver is a big-time story this year receiving greatness due to its basic, as well as aesthetic, uses. The AI hype and green technology such as EV's fuel the rise as well as the holidays and if a man did not gift his honey a silver bracelet yesterday for Christmas, he is now sleeping in the garage. The daily chart shows the radical rise in silver in recent months and the weekly chart displays the parabolic thrust higher into the stratosphere. Congratulations to all the silver bulls that held onto the PM's believing in the longer term story.

Alas, what goes up, must come down, and what goes up parabolically, comes down just as sharp. The question is when does the over-hyped euphoric orgy top end? The red lines show the daily chart pretty-much cooked with negative divergence. The RSI and stochastics are also overbot agreeable to a pullback. The Aroon verifies the out of control bullishness with 100% of the bulls believing that silver will continue going up forever and comically, nearly 100% of the silver bears also believe that silver will go up forever.

The MACD line continues higher but it is in such nosebleed levels, like the seats Keystone buys for sporting events, so there is nowhere to go but down. The air is so rarified way up there in peanut heaven that you have to bring an oxygen tank. The coup de grace is the doji candlestick from the Eve of Christmas, a spinning top, that can identify a trend change.

Price is also running up the upper standard deviation band and needs a correction back to the middle band, at 62 and rising sharply, and lower band at 52 and rising. That is a big congestion zone at 45-55 bookending the 50 level. That hints that it may be a better home for silver as the months play out. Keep watching the chart to see how it develops. Obviously, if you enjoyed huge profits, you have to start thinking about exiting stage right.

The weekly chart is a slightly different picture. Remember, trading is like multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The red lines show silver price topping out on the weekly chart but not quite there yet. Price is making the higher highs, record highs, now even higher in real-time, and the RSI sneaks-out a higher high; it is long and strong wanting to see one more high on the weekly basis. Ditto the MACD, histogram and ROC. They do not want the bullish party to end.

The stochastics are neggie d and overbot. The RSI is overbot agreeable to a pullback based on this metric. The MACD on the weekly is at nosebleed levels, where Keystone cannot find a bag of peanuts since the vendors become dizzy at such a high altitude near the cheap seats, and refuse to climb the stairs. These indicators are bearish and indicate the top is near on the weekly basis, probably a week or two away.

So the daily is agreeable to a pullback now but the weekly time frame has a bit more juice. Silver may take its first pullback from the parabolic rise in the days ahead, helped by the negative stochastics on the weekly basis, but that will be short-lived, with price coming back up for another matching price high, say a week or two out, when the weekly chart will be in neggie d so the top can be called on the weekly basis.

The Aroon on the weekly basis indicates every single silver bull and every single silver bear, guarantee that silver will go up forever on the weekly basis (it is a contrarian indicator--the boat is fully loaded on the bull side as would be expected for a parabolic price move).

So taking a guess at the path forward since the charts are not definite right now, silver will likely pullback for a few days, say a week, followed by more upside for a few days, say a week, at that time when the new matching highs are made, say early January or so, the indicators should be in neggie d and the top can be called on the weekly basis. The other outcome is for price to ignore the weakness on the daily chart, for now, and ram price higher to satisfy and burn-out the joy on the weekly chart and create the top over the next couple weeks (without much or a pullback over the next few days).

Keystone is not playing silver long or short but is shorting the gold miners currently. There is no reason to enter silver long or short now. It is best to let the chart play out. You can catch the top on the weekly basis probably in a couple weeks, the weekly chart will tell you when, and you may dip your toe in on the short side limiting the exposure. If you have held silver the last couple years, or even less, and sitting on bags of silver coins, you may consider lightening up the positions. You could scale-out over the next month, say, sell one-fourth of the position each week going forward.

The move is historic. We need Ritchie Blackmore's Rainbow. Man on the Silver Mountain. Lift my spirit higher. Make me Holy again. Dio. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 12/27/25: Wowza. Silver explodes another +10% higher yesterday the parabolic phase going straight vertical. It is quite a sight. A frenzy. Some people may be taking profits in stocks and buying gold and silver as a perceived safe bet ahead. The RSI, MACD and ROC poke out new highs on the daily chart, but all are in the stratosphere now with nowhere to go but down, so probably a two-day jog to turn the RSI and ROC neggie d again and then a couple days to do the same for the MACD so the top for the daily chart is likely a couple-four days away delayed due to the happy silver and gold holiday orgy (down-up-down-up for the top on the daily basis). People are buying silver, gold and other precious metals without even looking at any charts. Analysis above remains in play. Simply watch the charts and when negative divergence forms on the daily and/or weekly charts, you can call the top in silver in that respective time frame.

Note Added Sunday, 12/28/25: Wowza. Silver catapults above 80.. Exchanges are starting to increase margin requirements on silver that means they are trying to put a kibosh on the out of control vertical rally. The elite Wall Street cats always change the rules in the middle of the game. It is called crony capitalism filth. With an increase in margin requirements, holders of silver either have to pony up more dough to maintain current positions or sell some silver. New buyers are limited in their purchases as per the new margin requirements. Typically, the power brokers will raise the margin requirements in stages until the desired outcome occurs (a top in silver). The week ahead may be crazy stuff. It is 3 AM, everyone is drunk as skunks, and the silver party is getting busted. The cops are here and telling everyone to go home, the silver party is over. Is it? As the house lights come up, there is always time for one more song. Closing Time by Dan Wilson.

Note Added Sunday, 12/28/25, at 8:00 PM EST: Wowza. Silver pops to 84, and then falls on its sword dropping to 76 now at 77. The wild ride begins. This is historic price action for silver.

Note Added Monday Morning, 12/29/25, at 7:03 AM EST: Silver drops to 74.64. The precious metals are pulling back and the Talk of the Town. Chrissie is perfection fronting The Pretenders. 'Oh, but it's hard to live by the rules, I never could, and still never do'.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/30/25, at 2:49 AM EST: Silver drops to 71-72 and then recovers to 74.36. The MACD line remains long and strong on the weekly chart, in nosebleed territory, so price may need to chop for a week or two as the weekly chart figures out where it wants to top-out at.

Note Added Saturday, 1/3/26: Silver is a roller coaster ride up big the day after Christmas, then down big, then up big, then down big, then flattish, all that drama to end up at 72.25 exactly where it was on Christmas Eve. It ran towards 84 before collapsing. In the week ahead, we find out if it wants to come back up to tag 80 before rolling over on the weekly basis. The MACD line is long and strong, almost vertical, in nosebleed territory, so that may be enough to bring price back up over the coming days, however, it is radically out of bounds and only has one way to go, down. Silver either already topped, or it will in the week ahead, and a multi-week down move will begin. You do not have to guess, simply watch for the neggie d confirmation in the time frame that you are focused.

YC2YR Yield Curve (2-10 Spread) and XLF Financials ETF Weekly Charts; Yield Curve Leads the Banks

The bank orgy continues. It is all about the yield curve; the 2-10 spread. As YC2YR increases, the spreads between the yields widen providing advantages to banks with their lending programs. Banks can make more profits taking advantage of the yield differential.

It is easy to see the 2-10 spread leading the banks around by their nose. The charts show XLF responding to the yield curve with a 1 or 2-week lag. Banksters are drunk as skunks, cheering the blue lines, celebrating the rising yield curve knowing that their bonuses will increase. But the orange lines are denigrated and shouted-down. The crony capitalism filth system has no tolerance for a falling yield curve.

The yield curve bottoms just before Halloween, when Keystone scared the neighborhood children with his face, and he was not wearing a mask, and rises towards Thanksgiving. The banks bottomed in mid-November about a 3-week lag. It is interesting to see the yield curve pop for 3 weeks off the bottom in late October, and then pull back, and the XLF mimics the same pattern, 3 weeks up and then a pullback for a week.

The yield curve continues higher in early December for a couple-three weeks and then rolls over retreating thus far this week with today yet to play out. The XLF rallies this week after the low the previous week so following the pattern, banks should top-out over the next week or two. Simply watch the yield curve for clues on the banks.

The KRE regional banks ETF does not follow the pattern as closely as the XLF that represents the large money-center banks, insurance companies and other financials. This makes sense since the US remains in a housing recession as has been previously explained. The regional banks service the local home mortgage market so the soft housing sector is impacting the KRE more than the XLF. Both are making record highs but the XLF launches far higher with new record highs while the KRE has only just returned to the record high from a year ago.

Pull out your telescope and keep a close eye on the yield curve since it will send the banks one way or the other that then sends the stock market the same way. Land Ho!  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 12/27/25: The yield curve ends the week at 0.66 with the high at 67 basis points a week ago. If YC2YR comes up to 0.67 and a bit higher printing a new high, the chart indicators on the daily basis should all be neggie d identifying the top on the daily basis. The weekly chart is in negative divergence now and has violated the upper standard deviation band and needs to come down. Thus, the expectation is that the yield curve is topping right now and should begin a multi-week move lower. The 20-week MA is 0.56 and it hugged that line and used it as support for the last 1-1/2 years so when she fails, it will be meaningful. The 50-wk MA is down at 0.47. XLF drops marginally in the Friday trade sitting at 55.62. The two charts above, and KRE, and the money-center bank's individual names (JPM, C, BAC, GS, WFC, MS, etc...), will be a key focus over the coming days and week or two.

Note Added Saturday, 1/3/26: The yield curve receives more upside juice to 71 basis points. The daily chart hints that the yield curve has topped-out for now but the weekly chart is more of a sideways with a slight upward bias posture. In the near-term, a retracement of the yield curve to the 62 to 71 bips range, even down to 57 bips, would be in sync with the banks and stocks pulling back but the yield curve may take on more of a sideways posture going forward on the weekly basis after the weakness in the daily time frame plays out.