SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Continuing to Set-Up the Top but King Donnie Happy Talk Maintains Buoyancy

As the prior charts show, negative divergence occurs on the SPX daily chart so the top is in. The only thing that can change that is unknown news that hits the wires such as King Donnie Trumpski happy talk about the Iran War or other matters. The jubilation in semiconductors also maintains off the charts stock market enthusiasm.

The orgy move above SPX 7300, now 7400, occurs last week after the Donnie happy talk on Sunday, 5/3/26, hit the wires. Keystone was given a "SPX 7400" hat but a bird sh*t on it on the way home. As expected, the orange head pumped the markets ahead of the Sunday futures markets opening at 6 PM EST. The key phrase was 'no combat operations' are expected in Iran that sent futures higher. Donnie said China was involved in trying to end the Iran War.

Trumpski started Project Freedom to open up the Strait of Hormuz and that lasted 10 minutes. US ships were fired upon and an UAE oil port was damaged. Donnie labeled the Project Freedom operation as a humanitarian mission but it quickly ended so what do the people do that are suffering? Trump is extremely worried that one of the US warships will be hit by a missile or drones and worst of all, sunk. He pulled back from Project Freedom because of this worry and from pressure from UAE and others that their ports and oil facilities are hit every time the orange head takes action. Does this sound like winning?

King Donnie said regime change was the reason he ordered the Iran War to begin but that quickly morphed into the messaging that it was to prevent Iran from having a nuclear bomb. Which story is it today? Israel told Donnie that all the Iranian leaders were gathered in one place and the low IQ orange head salivated over wiping out the radical terrorist leadership in one big hit. That lustful idea made Donnie name regime change as his original justification for his sole decision to go to war. The regime has not changed so he is back to touting the nuclear angle. These are the games all the corrupt politicians play as America faces the final stage of crony capitalism.

As the light blue line shows in the right margin of the previous daily chart, that was the outcome if happy talk occurs last week, and it did. It delays the top that was in neggie d only for a short few days or so and the chart will simply reset with neggie d again to call the top on the daily basis. The happy talk cannot continue forever.

The high gasoline prices and overall Trumpflation, like the Bidenflation, is hurting Americans bigtime. Family spending drops if the money has to go into the gas tank and this activity creates a sick negative economy. The tax savings from the so-called Big Beautiful Bill that Congress passed is going to pay higher electric and utility bills, due to AI, as well as other higher costs and of course putting gasoline in the car, due to Donnie's Iran War.

The Iran War Donnie hype talk continued every day last week and it was comical to see the SPX pop with each news bite. Trumpski boasted all week that an Iran deal was coming. That messaging morphed into a big Friday deadline of when Iran would provide a proposal to end the war. Iran is not on the same timeline as King Donnie. They do not care if things stretch out while Donnie wants the nightmare he created to end immediately. Idiot cabinet members and republican media were parroting the messaging into Friday evening in the US but it was already Saturday in Iran due to the time change, and Iran blew off the Friday deadline. People are stupid nowadays (add 7 or 8 hours for Iran time compared to US East Coast).

The Iran War is unpopular because one man started it; Donnie Trumpski. He never educated the American people on why a war with Iran was important. Donnie needed to educate Americans on the danger that Iran poses with nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, but he chose not to. Donnie needed to build a coalition of countries to help out with the Iran War, but he chose not to. His lust to, in his mind, bring Iran to its knees by eliminating the leadership in one big military hit, clouded his judgement and he decided to just pull the trigger and hope. He screwed the pooch.

Now his orange tail is between his legs and he lashes out at other countries demanding they help him with the mess he created with the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, last evening, Donnie makes a big mistake saying he does not care about the American people's financial situation painting himself as a hero preventing nuclear war. People do not want to hear this dribble when they cannot pay their bills or put food on the table. What color is the sky in Donnie's world? Probably orange.

So all that Donnie happy talk creates stock market enthusiasm only seen at bubble tops. The Aroon shows that nearly all the bulls are bullish for stocks (green line) while every bear is bullish the stock market (red line). That is hilarious. The low put/calls and Aroon verify the wild optimism for stocks along with rampant complacency and fearlessness. Traders now believe stocks are at a permanently high plateau and will never go down again a la Irving Fisher in 1929.

The uber bullishness is on display daily. Ed Yardeni ups his SPX target to 8250. Yardeni expects the S&P 500 to rally about 120 points per month for every month forward into the end of the year. As they say in the Bronx, "good luck wit dat." Others raise their targets expecting great things ahead this year for stocks.

It is a mirror image of last year. Donnie cratered the stock market with the tariff garbage a year ago, and April 2025 looked like doom and gloom. Wall Street analysts were tripping over each other to lower SPX targets. Then, as the rally took off higher, all the dolts ran back to revise targets again to the upside. This feels like the opposite. Everybody and his bro are increasing SPX targets, almost guaranteeing SPX 8K plus,  due to the AI hype and expectation that earnings will be through the roof this year. How do you think that will end? Perhaps in the summer frantically lowering the SPX targets again?

The red lines show the negative divergence remaining in place with the pesky MACD remaining a hair bullish (tiny green line). The chart went neggie d across all indicators, including the MACD, but that was stick-saved by King Donnie happy talk who no doubt has experienced technicians chained to desks in the basement of the Whitehouse explaining market machinations to him daily. Price would be expected to rise today to come near the prior highs due to the bullish fumes remaining in the MACD gas tank and futures are positive this morning. That is a good set-up for the MACD to lock in neggie d today and the top for the daily time frame (as long as the Donnie happy talk does not occur). Trumpski is on his way to China so he is sleeping in the airplane now.

The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band, that is the 20-day MA at 7202, and rising, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6962 and rising. There remains lots of gaps that will need filled on the downside especially that big gap at 6610-6750.

Despite the record-setting rally off the April low, the Aroon DOES NOT consider the bigtime rally to be a strong trend higher. Isn't that something? The last strong trend was down for markets in March but that dissipated when the rally off the bottom occurred (pink box). The fun continues.

Humorously, the Donnie pump talk continues this morning. S&P futures popped about 10 points a couple hours ago after it was announced that NVDA's Jensen would join Trumpski for the China trip. Emperor Jensen was not on the original list to attend the trip and Donnie saw how that was receiving lots of play on business media. Why was Jensen not invited? Trump steps in and tells Jensen to join him and voila, futures pop higher.

Isn't is sickening seeing the big corporations lie in bed with the US government daily? Eisenhower was right about the permanent military-industrial complex that is now the engrained permanent military-industrial-technology-pharmaceutical complex. Other than all of the above, things are going swimmingly. Everyone loves happy talk. Shiny Happy People. Enjoy it while it lasts. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Pay Attention to Utes While Charting the Path Forward

The utilities have been quiet for a couple months and more staggering sideways like the drunk in Times Square last evening. Every time a television talking head says data center, traders buy utility stocks trained like Pavlov's dog, until last week. Utes collapsed -4% last week and no one noticed. Utilities used to be called the widows and orphans stock since it was a Steady Eddie grower with a dividend and a perceived safety play in a downward moving stock market.

Now utes are tied to the AI boom and need for electric power and data centers that hum all night long creating sleepless nights for the neighbors. The AI and data center initial hype probably ran its course. Americans are already pushing back against higher electric bills as the wealthy class tried to slough off higher electricity costs, due to higher AI demand, on common folks. Communities are yelling NIMBY and BANANA at town hall meetings discussing approvals for data centers ('Not In My Back Yard' and 'Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Not Anytime').

So are the chickens coming home to roost? Chicken Train. Pass the bowl. The utilities are dropping faster than a prom dress at midnight. Keystone pointed out the top in the stock market in January and February due to the negative divergence in the charts and a multi-week downturn was set to begin, and it did. At that time, Keystone warned about the potential for the stock market to fall into a crash profile.

But utilities jumped higher during the February/March stock market selloff and Keystone took the crash off the table although a multi-week pullback remained on the table and it would be a significant drop, that it was with the SPX losing about -10% before recovering to the new all-time high at 7401.50 and new all-time closing high at 7398.93. The "SPX 7.4K" hats are passed out but there is a nasty stain on Keystone's and the stitching is already falling out. The tag says Made in China. He gave it to the Uber driver.

The stock market crash was off the table in February/March because utes were flying high. As per Norm Fosback's theory from decades ago, and modernized by Keystone, the utes will typically start down first, or move down in tandem with, the broad market, and this portends very bad things ahead and major negativity for equtities.

You want to watch the weekly closing price from 15 weeks ago, that establishes the weekly trend, and the 50-week MA at 1107 that typically serves as a trap-door for the stock market. It is remarkable that UTIL, or DJU, dropped to within 4 points of failure at 1107 on Friday and no one noticed. How could they since they were too busy buying stocks?

For next week, the week of 5/11/26, counting back 15 weeks, is the orange circle at 1091.27. Write that number on a sticky note and put it on your forehead for all five days next week. Stocks will be in trouble if UTIL loses the 1091.27 level next week. UTIL begins the week at 1112.

The set-up is not typical since the weekly trend would usually fail first, then the 50-week that opens the trap-door for the stock market but this time it is flip-flopped. If utes fail next week, the 50-week MA at 1107 will fail first and the 1091 level can be thought of as the trap-door for the broad stock market if it fails.

For the week of 5/18/26, the 1091 becomes meaningless replaced by the 1089.25 line in the sand (blue circle). For the week of 5/25/26, the shortened trading week with Monday the Memorial Day holiday and US markets closed, the 1089 will become meaningless and replaced with 1171.18 (brown circle).

Note how price stayed above the levels from last year and early this year creating the weekly uptrend in utilities and boost to the stock market. With price collapsing to 1112, we have a new ball game. It is baseball season now. Centerfield. Put me in coach. Roberto Clemente will always be Keystone's hero forever. He was a great man. Too bad young folks do not have excellent role models like that to follow anymore.

If UTIL loses 1107 next week, the stock market is in big trouble. If UTIL then loses 1091, stocks will likely be falling down the rabbit hole or will soon thereafter. Stock market bulls will be okay if they can keep the utility prices above the metrics listed. Price may be able to keep its head above the next 2 week's of 15-week lookback numbers (orange and blue circles), but starting the day after Memorial Day when stocks reopen for trading, the utes will likely slip into a weekly downtrend pattern forecasting bad things ahead for the stock market. Simply watch to see what unfolds.

Now you know how to gauge any negativity going forward. If utilities begin losing the key levels described above, the stock market is in major trouble and will go into a potential crash profile if the downside in stocks begins due to other catalysts. It is a cut and dry set-up so the die will be cast over the next 2 weeks one way or the other.

If both the 50-week MA at 1107 fails, and then the 1190-ish level over the next 2 weeks, stocks will be in major trouble going forward. It appears that it will be unavoidable but things happen like the wild orgy rally in stocks from April to the present. If you see utilities rallying next week and gaining back the losses from this past week, the fix is in and market makers plan on keeping stocks elevated for a while longer.

If utes remain sick and sink lower, be very afraid going forward. The Iran War and Strait of Hormuz mess will continue influencing stocks in the days ahead. Everyone waits for the latest dribble, er proclamations, from King Donnie Trumpski. It's more fun to spend the day with a Country Girl. Oh country girl, ya drive away the pain, oh country girl, ya make sunshine of the rain. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Multi-Year Lows in Put/Call Ratio Signal and Verify Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness in US Stock Market

Watch your wallet going forward. The CPC is printing multi-year lows confirming the rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. The bullish euphoria is at multi-year highs as occurs during significant stock market tops. Every day is one big par-tay. Even the bears are bullish. The Uber driver, shoeshine boy, doorman, taxi cab driver, barista, and investing club ran by 80-year old women, are throwing money at the stock market with both fists. Everybody and his brother are worried they are missing out on the opportunity of a lifetime. It always ends in tears. There's a Tear in My Beer. Hank Junior and Senior.

If you are a novice long-only trader, get yourself out, take your profits, and take the summer off. Anyone long now needs to be hedging and bringing on shorts going forward.

The charts are also set up with, or in the process, of topping out with negative divergence. All the stars are aligning. The semiconductor yearnings in recent days have buoyed stocks but the obvious pumper-in-chief is King Donnie Trumpski. Equities track according to the words coming out of the orange mouth and this cheerleading with happy Iran War talk is what is keeping the stock market turd afloat in recent days.

Plan accordingly. There is a Bad Moon Rising. Urban legend says John and the CCR boys were playing a bar gig and a man in the audience stood up and looked confused. John sings "a bad moon's on the rise," but when he saw the confused man he sang, "the bathroom's on the right." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short yesterday at munch time at SPX 7198. Copper and retail stocks failed creating the negativity. Copper and the stock market are moving in sync and the red metal is recovering this morning. The banks are also in play. These three metrics dictate the path forward. Do not be surprised if the quant whipsaws since that has been par for the course this year. If copper, retail stocks and banks remain bearish or turn bearish, the stock market will be sliding down the rabbit hole.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Long-Term Top Is Placed As Stocks Print All-Time Highs

Raise your hand if you are a jackass that is long the stock market and adding to long positions. Look at that. Every trader on Wall Street raises their hand. The ghost of Irving Fisher floats above the traders proclaiming that the stock market is at a permanently high plateau above SPX 7.2K and will never go below that level ever again.

The month of May begins today and people should be yelling, "May Day! Mayday!" The United States stock market is cooked on the long-term monthly basis. That means stocks will begin dropping and that downward path will continue for many months if not a year or two, or maybe more. You must realize that these all-time highs may not be seen again for many months and perhaps many years.

If you are a young naive person, get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Otherwise, Keystone is going to take your money and send you home to tell your wife that you lost the dough that was for her anniversary present.

The bears should be happy that May starts with a matching and higher price high. That allows the chart indicators to be assessed for negative divergence to see if a top exists, or how far away it may be. The red lines show that we are sitting on the top right now due to neggie d and the picnic bench is about to break and land everyone on the ground, with the ants.

A trip back to the 20-mth MA at 6386 would be in order for starters. The 10-mth MA at 6847 is an early warning signal of pending doom. At 7.2K plus you may not be that concerned, but you will be. The key level is the 12-mth MA at 6751 that dictates a cyclical bear market. Stocks dipped their toes into this realm on the last dip but recovered with that record setting rally in April. If 6751 is lost, all hope is lost in the stock market.

The only hope bulls have would be to push the MACD line up so it is a tiny bit higher than the prior high but even that will only buy another month or two before the top is placed. Can't you understand? There is no hope going forward for the stock market on a long-term monthly basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money selling their shares to the bagholding suckers, the dumb money, over the last couple years. Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway has been trimming stocks for the last couple years. Doesn't everyone worship at his altar?

Are you ready for fun? We are at an historic top as everyone whistles past the graveyard going long with 2x and crazy 3x ETF's. If you are long the stock market, you should be girding your loins. We need some wild music to match the wild times ahead. Born to Be Wild. All of you young folks missed out on the fun, adventure, and trouble, in the 60's and 70's. The road is freedom and some of you idiots place shackles on yourselves with an electric vehicle POS. You be dumb. Get a motor underneath you and you will never be the same. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and oil moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day. Trumpski claims that he will help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz but it sounds like more hollow rhetoric. He says he wants to help countries that are 'victims of circumstance'. That is what Curly Joe of The Three Stooges would say as an excuse for his actions.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/5/26, at 7:44 AM EST: JPM says the stock market is 'not complacent'. They must be smoking dope over there.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Uber Bullish Optimism and Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness at Stock Market Top

After Keystone has explained the topping process the last couple posts, the SPX daily chart has finally arrived at the neggie d top. The uber multi-year low CPC and CPCE put/calls signal rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market and, just like the March downdraft, traders and investors must pay for their uber bullish optimism by losing their Money.

The Aroon green line shows that every single bull in the stock market, 100%, believe that stocks will continue higher forever. Humorously, the red line down at 12% shows that nearly all the bears also believe that stocks will go up forever. The Aroon directly verifies the ridiculous positive sentiment in the put/calls.

As previously mentioned, the SPX can run a couple hundo points higher after the low put/calls and it may take a week or two to top out (unlike years ago where a top would occur days after the low put/calls). Honey, we're home.

As also previously explained, Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down, so the breach of SPX 6800 on the way up was key since it opened the door to 7200. It was a twisted path with the March swoon in the middle but it got there. Price is at 7209 so 7208 was breached so 7212 will likely print. If 7218 is tagged, 7220 is next and if 7228 is attained, that will likely lead to 7232.

The daily chart above is finally topped out with full neggie d across all indicators (red lines) so the 7220-7230 area is a logical place from which the stock market will start its down move on the daily basis. You had to wait for the SPX daily chart to top out with negative divergence and the pesky MACD line was not cooperating. The kittens are finally herded and price is topped out now with neggie d and a down move on the daily basis should begin. The only thing that can stop it would be happy talk such as the Iran War ending or the Strait of Hormuz opening or other such rosy words.

Focus on the MACD line. It is definitely sloping down as price printed another high locking in neggie d but you have to give it a day or so to make sure. The MACD line is flat as a newlywed's souffle so it would not take much for the bulls to try and jam price higher to boost the MACD a tiny bit for a matching or higher high. This would extend the top but only by a day or two. If the MACD line remains sloping down, the top is in on the daily basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The upper standard deviation band was violated so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 6976 rising sharply, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6579 rising sharply. The volume was robust yesterday. Bobby Bagholder, Savita Sucker, Freddie Fool, Carmelita Retail and Antoine Sixpack could not buy shares fast enough. The two blue circles show distribution days where the so-called smart money is dumping shares on the dumb money idiots listed above. Are you ready to hold the bag? It is fun watching the human reactions especially when they are losing their shirts.

You have been patient waiting for the top to form on the daily basis and it is now topped out with neggie d. Plan accordingly. The SPX 2-hour chart remains in neggie d, however, it is feeling the thrust from yesterday, so it may take a few hours today for the neggie d negativity to soak into everyone's bones. Plan your trading today and next week knowing that a historic Black Monday or Black Tuesday may occur next week. These set-ups have been occurring, like last week, but the happy talk has been delaying the inevitable. Of course if negative news occur, it will act as an accelerator and catalyst for the downside.

AI will likely not live up to the hype in the near-term; it is something that will need to grow and find its way over the next 4 to 8 years before companies likely see a benefit. They tell you AI is increasing productivity now, but that is because they are using it as an excuse to get rid of the dead wood, then take their tasks and dump them on the remaining employees. There's your efficiency. Make sure you tell your kid that you cannot go to their big soccer game because you are kissing the boss's arse. Is this your life? Pity you. Cats in the Cradle.

Today, May Day, is Mexico's Labor Day. How come they celebrate labor by taking a siesta? They have to rest-up for the Cinco de Mayo parties in 4 days. Since there are many cockroaches in the markets now that are starting to show themselves as the lights are turned on, it is only fitting to sing La Cucaracha. Keystone was handed a "SPX 7.2K" hat but gave it to Carmelita. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:20 AM EST: Iran War happy talk occurs so S&P futures pop +22 points as oil prices and volatility drops. It is a minor blip. Are traders getting sick of the Iran War baby games?

Note Added 6:03 PM EST: Wheee! Whooopie! Happy Days are here again. Iran War happy talk creates an orgy party for stocks. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7272.52 and new all-time closing high at 7230.12 today, Friday, 5/1/26. Price settled a big 42 points off the intraday high. That behavior is evidenced by the Shooting Star candlestick, that is not the same as the Bad Company song Shooting Star, that printed today on the daily chart. Johnny was a school boy, when he heard his first Beatles song. The bulls drove price higher out of the gate celebrating the Iran War hype but the bears spanked price down, way down to where it started, creating the shooting star. Note that the end of day SPX point gain is what it was in the S&P futures when the Iran hype news hit this morning. The shooting star typically signals a reversal. Johnny made a record, it went straight up to number one. The MACD line is a tiny hair higher due to the rally today but stick a fork in the piece of sh*t. It's cooked and has topped out or will early next week. If you did not throw longs overboard and bring on shorts today, especially after the orgy open, shame on you. Next week may be historic for the stock market and talked about for decades to come. Johnny's life passed him by, like a warm summer day, if you listen to the wind, you can still hear him play. King Donnie Trumpski needs to accept the fact that he created a mess in the Middle East and he has to open the Strait of Hormuz, period. Even if it takes the Marines going in; they know what they are doing. Donnie created the mess and has to fix it, otherwise, China may get aggressive in waterways in and around Taiwan and other Asian nations. First, fire power has to be used to clear the Strait and then, second, it will still take time because insurers will not want to step up to guarantee the cargoes unless the military opens the strait and stays in control and on guard, or if the USA acts as an insurer. There is no other solution. Perhaps Donnie starts the operation this weekend? The new moon is 5/16/26 so if the Marines go in, they need maximum cover of darkness using their superior night vision. Perhaps a window of 5/14/26 through 5/21/26 is on tap for Trumpski's so-called 'all-Hell to break out' in Iran again? King Donnie has likely not given any thought for a potential humanitarian crisis occurring in Iran due to the blockade (millions of people starving). Memorial Day is coming and The Swing Dolls are warming up back stage and ready to cheer the military for the pending Strait of Hormuz operation. It's always a great show when the audience participates.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and oil moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day. Trumpski claims that he will help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz but it sounds like more hollow rhetoric. He says he wants to help countries that are 'victims of circumstance'. That is what Curly Joe of The Three Stooges would say as an excuse for his actions.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/5/26, at 7:47 AM EST: JPM says the stock market is 'not complacent'. They must be smoking dope over there.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips long today at SPX 7175 at munch time. Let's see what the bulls got.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Setting Up with Neggie-D Top; Fed Rate Decision, Chairman Powell Farewell Presser and Iran War Blockade Drama On Tap

The watch for the negative divergence top on the SPX daily chart continues. But All Along the Watchtower, the joker said to the thief that the pesky MACD line refuses to roll over and die. No reason to get excited, there are many here among us, that feel life is but a joke. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7178.74 and new all-time closing high at 7173.91 on Monday, 4/27/26.

The top cannot be called until ALL the chart indicators go neggie d. The red lines show that all the indicators are negatively diverged down away from the rising price except the MACD. It may need a down-up jog to allow time for the MACD line to go neggie d, joining the other indicators, and the top can be called on the daily basis. The MACD is stretched high so the SPX may reverse at anytime regardless of the MACD going neggie d.

The Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell final swan song press conference is tomorrow that will create market drama. Also, Iran is staging many ships ahead of the US naval blockade and you can smell a run at the blockade perhaps on tap. Oil prices rise with both Brent and WTIC over one hundo. That will be a sight and a worldwide event if Iran cranks up a couple dozen ships and tankers and they all motor towards the same spot of the naval blockade. It will not be anything good for the world.

King Donnie Trumpski's Iran War plan now involves sitting and waiting a couple weeks and more until Iran can no longer store anymore oil and will have to shut down plants and wells that are difficult to restart. That is a stupid plan. There are probably 3 weeks of storage still available and maybe they dump the oil out on the ground for a while? Donnie is burning $2 billion a day of US taxpayers money on a strategy that is sitting around and waiting for 2 or 3 weeks hoping a good ending comes to the war and the Strait of Hormuz mess. Good luck.

That weekend gala in Washington, DC, where the corrupt politicians and media comingle perpetuating the filthy crony capitalism system, remains big news. How come no one has asked why the so-called mentalist at the event did not tell everyone ahead of time what was going to happen? People wonder why that nutcase dude went berserk. Maybe he didn't like the veal?

It does not appear the shooter fired the shotgun but the secret service fired about five shots at close range and none of the bullets hit the guy. What size bird shot was loaded in the shotgun (a shotgun shell contains small BB's that spray out)? Double-O (00) buckshot? No one has asked such a simple and obvious question. An agent may have been hit but if it was the shotgun, he would have been hit with BB's in the face, arms and legs. Maybe it was friendly fire, one of those five shots that hit the agent, in that case it would be the Keystone Kops.

There should be no such event where the people reporting on the news are lying in hotel beds with the politicians that create the news. Everyone forgot about Charlie Rose. The 30-year old lip-gloss beauties line up one after another wanting to get an interview with a politician to launch their own media careers. Hello Senator X, I'm Missy and would like to interview you. Well, young lady, I am very busy. I know, sir, but I would not mind if you ran your hand up my leg. Oh, I see, I do have an opening on Wednesday, Missy. We can discuss an interview then. It will be a delightful meeting. And that is what the Whitehouse Correspondents dinner event is all about. How convenient that it is at a hotel. Maybe we can consummate that interview tonight, baby doll? What's Your Name? Come upstairs little girl, and have a drink of champagne, there ain't no shame.

Anyhoo, stocks are up 80% of the time the couple days in front of the Fed meetings. Recently, more retail traders must be aware of this because it is front-run more each time. Traders and investors are bulled-up going into the Fed meeting but is this one of the 20% times?

The put/calls registered the multi-week lows forecasting a major selloff ahead. Remember, the SPX could still pop a hundo or two hundo, and it is up about a 150 points since the put/call lows about 1-1/2 weeks ago. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. The Fed and the Iran War oil drama are coming to a head right now today and tomorrow.

The expectation is for the dark blue line to occur where stocks drop from here due to the neggie d, or perform a down-up jog move so that would be down today, up tomorrow, for the top. The light blue line shows the outcome if Fed and Iran War happy talk occurs. Stocks will remain buoyant for a few days but not escape the neggie d. The top will simply occur a few more days into the future. The orange gaps will need filled below. It appears that the rest of the week will likely be filled with lots of excitement and drama. There is lots of drama with Fleetwood Mac's live performance since the band had interpersonal relationships with each other. Go Your Own Way. Top-shelf performance. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:44 PM EST: Today is a holding pattern day with everyone waiting for Pope Powell to come down from On High tomorrow and tell global traders how to trade. It is Powell's last meeting as chairman so everyone wants to hear what his plans are going forward. Chairman Warsh is on deck. He is up for his approval vote tomorrow so who knows, he may be the chairman by dinner time, instead of Powell waiting 2 more weeks? It will all come out in the Warsh. Today is down due to the the neggie d but the MACD remains pesky. If you are bearish, it would have been better for the SPX price to come out of the gate at the all-time price highs. That, along with the MACD now sloping down, would be neggie d, but instead price and the MACD both went down today together. An up move back to the all-time highs tomorrow would be in order, that would lock in the negative divergence for the MACD, and the top will finally be in on the daily basis, unless Powell has something different in mind. He did pick up his white dove wings at the cleaners this evening. The drama continues. Meatloaf and drama go together. He is now eating that big greasy hamburger in heaven. Everyone remembers high school and the drive-in theater with your honey and experiencing Paradise by the Dashboard Light.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/30/26: Lots of drama this week. The SPX prints a new all-time high today at 7219.83 and new all-time closing high at 7209.01. Remember, the MACD did not top-out properly with neggie d so price needed to come up again and voila, today it does with the new highs. Look at the MACD and all other indicators. Yes, they are finally ALL in negative divergence so the top is in on the daily basis, but, give it a day or so because the MACD is only sloping down by a single hair. If momentum carries through for Friday, that may be enough to push the MACD a hair higher again delaying the top to early next week. We are close now. It is going on a couple weeks since the low put/calls and neggie d is at hand on the daily basis. Watch your wallet. The Secret Service spins more yarns about the shooting at the gala. They even show pictures perhaps freshly doctored from the lab. It is easy to be a conspiracy theorist when you catch people in lies. That Pirro lady that does Donnie's dirty work, her husband was pardoned at the end of Trump's first term, and others insinuate a bullet came from the shotgun and that is stupid. A shotgun does not shoot a bullet. The officer engaging the nutcase had bare sleeves and should have been scarred with BB's if the shotgun was fired at him. How does he get hit in the chest when he saw the shooter coming at him and he was already in a shooting position himself with his hands and gun in front of his chest that was supposed to be hit? Where are all the BB's that should be lying on the rug and embedded in ceiling tile? Dollars to doughnuts that the Secret Service or FBI will clarify tomorrow that the shotgun was shooting a rifled slug that was a solo projectile that hit the officer's chest. That will cover up some lies but create other problems since the dude obviously used a shotgun because he wanted to use shot (a shotgun shell is full of BB's it is not a bullet) that would scatter and maim and hurt the most people. You cannot trust anything you are told these days. All the idiot media has to do is ask what size shot was in the shotgun shell in the gun that was fired. They knew that two minutes after the incident occurred when they unloaded the shell from the shotgun and looked at other shells he may have had on his body. Easy-peasy but days go by and instead, as usual, Americans are treated like mushrooms (kept in the dark and fed a bunch of sh*t). Is it a friendly fire cover-up?

VIX Volatility and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts

Everybody is bullish the stock market. Father Regis at the local Parish took all the collection basket money to a broker in town that placed it all in NVDA stock. The shoeshine boy, doorman, taxi cab driver, and Uber and Lyft drivers, are telling everyone to buy the market before it is too late. They are placing entire paychecks in semiconductor stocks and the broad indexes. Life is one big party with nothing but riches and joy ahead for all. 

The multi-year lows in the CPC and CPCE put/calls tells you that a significant top is at hand for the US stock market and can occur any day forward. Perhaps a look at volatility may shed light on the matter.

At the end of March, all hope was lost. Timmy Trader ran across the trading floor and jumped out of the window because he could no longer handle the irate calls from clients losing money hand over fist. Fortunately, Timmy is on the ground floor. The VIX continued higher over 30 as the blood flowed on Wall and Broad. Of course, stocks tumble lower when volatility rises but at the end of March it was time for a relief rally.

Who knew that the relief rally would be a rocket ride setting records with the SPX gaining +1% per day for 14 straight days. Relief rallies in downdrafts are known to be sharp and strong but this one was for the record books. The VIX collapses into the mid-20's as April begins sending stocks higher. The VIX and SPX are inversely correlated and move opposite to one another over 90% of the time.

Note in early April, volatility pops higher again but the SPX price only moves sideways and does not drop. That is testimony to how fast everyone turned bullish and no one wanted to miss the bull train leaving the station. All aboard! This Train Is Bound For Glory. The buy the dip crowd is unstoppable. The worse the news, the higher the stock market. People are trained to be optimistic so they will be pie-eyed happy buying stocks until they are smacked in the face with a 2x4.

Everything is groovy during April with the VIX dropping and stocks running higher, until 4/17/26. Perhaps filing taxes dampened the mood. The VIX bottomed a week ago, about when the put/calls printed their multi-year lows. The VIX is higher ever since, but the stock market does not drop, it continues higher. Something is wrong with this picture. Either the VIX must immediately begin dropping to a 16 and 17 handle (thin green line), or stocks are going to roll over and die.

The VIX spent much of the week above 19. The blue circle shows you a distribution day. That is the institutions (so-called smart money) selling to the dumb money at the top. The dip-buyers and fearless bulls such as Joe Sixpack, Ronnie Retail, Carmelita Bagholder and Savita Sucka are buying stocks like crazy believing they will be on easy street in just a few short weeks or months. Every top needs suckers.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is calling out VIX 19.74 as a key line in the sand. Bulls are fine if the VIX remains below. If the VIX moves above 19.74, the wheels will start falling off the stock market.

The SPX prints an all-time high at 7168.59 and all-time closing high at 7165.08 on Friday, 4/24/26, with rampant complacency, fearlessness, and uber bullish optimism. What could possibly go wrong? Monday would be a perfect time for a crash maybe a Black Monday, or a Black Tuesday? In a white room, with black curtains, where the shadows run from themselves. White Room by Cream. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Setting Up with Neggie D

Are yinz having fun yet? Remember, the prior charts show the 2-hour topping out with neggie d forecasting weakness in the VST and that started on Monday. At the same time, the daily chart was not yet topped out with negative divergence, so the bears had more wood to chop before they can create the top in the daily time frame, and that occurs this week with chop suey price action.

The blue lines show the megapone (expansion) pattern previously explained. This daily chart shows the obscene gap-up moves that occurred during the orgy rally (orange circles). Price has tried to fill the top gap a couple times but the dip buyers want higher equity prices and they are willing to buy with both fists. The gap at 6600-6750 is big enough to drive a bus through it. Those gaps will need filled going forward.

Now let's get down to business. You cannot call the top until you see neggie d. For 5 days in a row, price makes matching or higher highs. The SPX, that is the S&P 500, that is the United States stock market, prints a new all-time high at 7147.78 yesterday, 4/23/26, only pennies above the prior all-time high last Friday. Since price remains buoyant, the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence.

The red lines show neggie d galore and the RSI and stochastics, even money flow, are at or coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback. There is one fly in the ointment, however. The green line shows that the MACD line remains long and strong and wants to see another matching or higher high in price. Waiting for all the indicators to align can be like herding kittens.

Here is the story. Price should open around the same levels for the regular cash session. If the MACD line drops finally sloping lower, you can call the top on the daily basis. If, however, the MACD line continues higher, price likely needs another jog move (down, up, or up, down, up), so the top on the daily basis will still be a couple days away, say on Monday or Tuesday, to begin the new week of trading. The chart is very close to its neggie d top right now. You will know today if today is the top on the daily basis, or if you have to wait for early next week.

The Aroon verifies the multi-year lows that printed for the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios. The bullishness remains off the charts with traders and investors partying all day long buying any stock with a heartbeat. It is rampant complacency and fearlessness the hallmark of a significant stock market top. The Aroon green line at 100% shows that every single bull expects stocks to go up forever.

It is comical because this pending top is just like the prior top with all the same analysts calling for SPX 8K again and equities going to the moon. The ghost of Irving Fisher appears again hovering above Wall and Broad just like a few months ago. In an eerie voice, Fisher's hologram proclaims that stocks are at a permanently high plateau and will never drop below SPX 7K ever again. This same behavior occurred from the end of last year into February when the wheels fell off the stock market.

JPM raises its SPX target to 8K for this year. Analyst Ed Yardeni proclaims that the bottom was the end of March and you will not see those lows again. Yardeni says buy stocks touting the strong earnings projections ahead. The bulls line up one after another wearing tee shirts that have a picture of Irving Fisher screen printed on the chest. Truist's Keith Lerner says the bull market is battle tested telling folks to buy the dips. He says the tech bull market is strong and has a long way to go. Strategas analyst Chris Verrone decrees that the stock market has durability and equities will be higher six months out. Remember, you can't win all the time. You Got to Lose.

Check the MACD line after the opening bell to see if the top is in on the daily basis, or not. Keybot the Quant robot went short yesterday but the move is tenuous. VIX 19.74 is the bull/bear line in the sand that tells you who wins. Bulls win below VIX 19.74 (VIX is at 19.30 in real-time as this is typed). Bears win above VIX 19.74. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4/25/26: Friday was orgy time. The bulls kept the VIX below 19 sending stocks higher. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 7168.59 and new all-time closing high at 7165.08. Happy Days Are Here Again. La, la, la, la, la, la, la. Everyone is singing songs and carryin' on, swigging down Fed wine and smoking Iran War happy talk crack. It is fun to watch. Yardeni now proclaims that stocks are headed for a melt-up. He should pass around what he is smoking. Blackrock's Russ Koesterich decrees that the stock market is "resilient" so buy, buy, buy. The big banks such as JPM and MS tell Joe Retail to buy stocks since big gains are expected for the weeks and months ahead. As they say in the Bronx, "good luck wit dat." The SPX prints the higher high and the daily chart indicators above remain the same. The pesky MACD line does not yet go neggie d so you cannot call the top on the daily basis until all the kittens are herded. The same scenario is in place as explained above. If price opens Monday at these highs, and the MACD line is finally sloping downward, negatively diverging down away from price that keeps floating higher, and joins all the other indicators that are neggie d, you can call the top on the daily basis. If, however, the MACD continues higher, you will still have to wait for the neggie d to form. It looks like Monday and Tuesday are good candidates for the daily chart to top out but you have to wait for the neggie d to make sure. Remember, the rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market must be reckoned with. The put/calls printed the multi-year lows about a week ago so stay on guard for stocks to roll over and die at anytime forward.