Wednesday, August 16, 2017

AAPL Apple Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Apple prints a new all-time record high at 162.20. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's and 2's lead to 8's so the breach of 158 opened the door to 162 which occurs. The 161.80 level foretold 162.20 which is the exact high print. A move through 162.80 would open the door to 163.20.

Price makes the high with many negatives pushing back against the euphoria. The red lines show universal negative divergence over the last few months and in the shorter term over the last week. There is a sliver of strength in the MACD line so price either moves lower from here, or will print a jog move say down one day then up one day then the roll over as long as the MACD line rolls over. Apple can print a few more days of highs if the MACD line moves above that prior high from May (thin purple line).

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band during August so the middle band at 154 and rising is on the table over the short-term. The strong horizontal price support is at 155 in this same ballpark. Price is extended above the moving averages also requiring a mean reversion. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern.

The expectation is for Apple to pull back in this daily time frame from these highs. A landing zone in the near-term, say a few days or week or two ahead would be in the 155-158 area. Keystone currently has no position in Apple but may nibble on a short this week.

The Apple weekly chart displays universal neggie d agreeable to a pull back. There is some juice in the near-term on the weekly chart, however, so after a week or two of soft prices, AAPL will probably move back up to the current highs again. 

The monthly chart was posted a week or two ago explaining how Apple is likely printing a multi-year top currently. It is very likely the numbers you see in Apple, say over the next month, will not be seen again for several years if they are seen again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Battle at the 200-Day MA

Market bulls win below the VIX 200-day while bears win above. The 200-day MA is at 11.97. The VIX is at 12.05 so the bears are winning buy 8 pennies. The 3-day selloff gathered steam as soon as price poked up through the 200 (red circle). The battle continues and it is unclear who will win.

The blue bar is the 11.32 level called out by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. The algo treats this number as the key bull-bear line in the sand where bears win above 11.32 and bulls win below.

Thus, if VIX is above 11.97 and heading higher, the bears will be growling and sending stocks strongly lower. If the VIX is between 11.32 and 11.97, stocks will stagger sideways with a downside bias. If the VIX drops below 11.32, the bulls will be throwing confetti as the stock market rallies to new highs again. Which outcome will win? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:22 PM EST: The VIX eases lower to 11.90 so the bulls cheer. The beat goes on. The SPX, INDU (DJI) and COMPQ are trading dead flat. The RUT small caps sink -0.6%.

Monday, August 14, 2017

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Fibonacci Retracements

Here is a look at the 2-hour SPX chart with the blue lines showing the Fibonacci retracements for the move lower from 2491 down to 2437. Price popped through the 38% Fib at 2457 at the opening bell and now pokes around exactly at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2463-2464. If price moves higher from here it will seek the 62% Fib at 2470.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so a bounce was on tap to the middle band at 2463. Bingo, the SPX taps the middle band. Watch this 50% Fib level at 2463-2464 and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2459-2460. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

A key short-term signal is the 200 EMA on the S&P 500 60-minute chart. The market bears had firm control--until this morning. The gap-up move in stocks sends the SPX in a beeline to the 200 EMA at 2459-2460 and price crosses above predicting bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. The bears need to push the SPX under 2459 as quickly as possible to prevent the relief rally from gaining steam. The 2459-2460 tells you a lot today. Bulls have further upside strength above 2460. Bears will resume the negativity in stocks under 2459. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYMO McClellan Oscillator Daily Chart

The McClellan Oscillator finally comes down into negative territory after five long months. The low NYMO opens the door for the relief rally. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The six percentage-point reversals are key and the 70% level for the BPSPX. The bulls were in a double-whammy buy signal in July. The BPSPX peaked in late July along with the COMPQ, NDX and RUT stock indexes (tech and small caps). At 75.5, a six percentage-point reversal is 69.5, so that 69.5-70.0 level was critical for the bears to capture. And they did as August begins.

The BPSPX performs a 6 percentage-point reversal and is under the 70 level for a double-whammy sell signal. This will remain in effect unless the price crosses back above 70. Bulls need the 70 level for a buy signal to counteract the market negativity and also a 6 percentage point reversal would be 72.80 for a double-whammy buy signal.

Despite the robust rally on tap for Monday morning, the BPSPX is on a double-whammy sell signal. If the BPSPX moves lower simply adjust the numbers so you can keep track as the chart proceeds. If the BPSPX remains under 70, any relief rally is that, a relief rally, that will then roll over and die again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500, CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Charts

The low put/call ratios in July foretold trouble ahead for stocks, in this short term basis, and the SPX  tumbles from the 2491 record intraday spike high to 2437 in 3-1/2 days; 54 S&P handles from the high to the low; -2.2%.

The red circles identify the stock market tops due to the complacency verified by the low put/calls. The green circles indicate fear and panic where short-term tradeable bottoms occur. Note that the CPCE rockets to 0.94 with traders running to buy put protection worried about a big drop in the stock market. This is off the charts bearishness and likely leads to the relief rally on tap this Monday morning when trading begins for the week.

The CPC put/call, however, is not showing fear and panic instead it is more of the same-o, same-o. This may hint that a jog move is on tap where a relief rally occurs for stocks for a day or two then prices fall again for a day or two. Perhaps at that time the CPC would show fear and panic. The picture is mixed. Despite the elevated CPCE, it may be a bit premature to start heralding the upside in stocks again. The CPC will need to show far more fear and panic. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Friday, August 11, 2017

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; Testing 200-Day MA Support; Lower Band Violation

Remember a few days ago the RUT 50-day MA was highlighted as price battled above and below this key moving average? The Russell 2000 then failed at the 50-day MA collapsing through the 100, 150 and is now trying to find support at the 200-day MA at 1371. Price will either bounce or die from here. Since the battle at the 50-day MA was dramatic and resulted in failure, and the whole stock market rolled over, small caps are exhibiting leadership. A failure of the RUT 200-day MA would devastate the stock market.

Price has violated the lower band and actually gapped below it. That is out of hand to the downside so a bounce will be needed. The middle band at 1421 and dropping is on the table. The initial upside target would be the 150-day MA resistance at 1390. The stochastics are oversold open to a bounce. Ditto the RSI. However, the MACD line and histogram remains weak and bleak wanting another low in price after any bounce. The RUT may perform a jog move up one day, down the next day then up the day after that then trying to print a more substantive bounce.

The RUT 200-day MA at 1371 is a line in the sand for the entire stock market. Bears will create carnage below 1371. Bulls will stage a comeback relief rally above 1371. Price is at 1371 trying to decide what to do.

As a side note, it has been a long time to see negative price action. The central bankers have seriously distorted and destroyed markets over the last eight years. Price discovery is a joke; you really do not know what anything is actually worth anymore due to the oceans of infinite liquidity washing around the world. The oversold conditions on charts are worth monitoring here on out. Usually they are indicative of a bounce ahead for price, however, as bear markets develop, indexes crash from oversold levels. Markets do not crash from overbot levels. Usually what happens is a stock or index becomes weak and drops off the overbot levels and then becomes oversold and just when traders hope for an oversold bounce, thwack, the stock or index crashes. It is something to keep in mind during the weeks and months ahead.

For a sustainable down move in stocks, the bears are going to need weaker utilities but the utes have been holding up well. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 8/14/17, Before Opening Bell: The RUT ends last week at 1374 moving through a range at 1368-1376 on Friday. The 200-day MA is 1370.64. Bulls are trying to use the 200-day for a springboard bounce and relief rally. Market bears got nothing unless they can push the RUT under 1370.

Note Added Monday Morning, 8/14/17, at 10:20 AM EST: Stocks bounce big to begin the week with a robust relief rally. The RUT pops to 1386 with a HOD thus far at 1389. The 150-day MA resistance is at 1390.72 and the 200-day MA support is at 1371.55.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is a key short-term signal. The exponential moving average is at 2460 with price down at 2445. The failure of the 200 EMA ushers in bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Price will need to back kiss this key level going forward. Market bears are okay as long as they keep the SPX below 2460. Bulls will rejoice if the SPX moves above 2460 since that means the relief rally is gaining strength and stocks will continue higher.

The SPX viiolated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band at 2461 and falling is on the table. Price may come up to target  that 2455-2460 area between now and early next week. That SPX 2460 level will tell you a lot; watch it closely. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side this morning at SPX 2455. High volatility, weaker retail stocks and lower semiconductors conspire to cause the pull back in the stock market. Watch SOX 1076 it will tell you who wins. Market bears need the SOX to remain under 1076. Bulls will rejoice and begin a relief rally if SOX moves above 1076. SOX is currently printing at 1074. As always, more information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Battle at the 200-Day MA Bull-Bear Line in the Sand

The VIX 200-day MA is a very useful short-term market signal that all professional traders follow. Very simply, the market bulls are partying like its 1999 under the 200-day while the bears growl and bite off chunks of bull flesh above the 200-day.

Since you want to buy stocks when there is blood and carnage in the streets, the high VIX numbers identify these situations. The key stock market bottoms all occur in sync with the VIX spiking to the maximum fear and panic levels (green circles).

The two blue bars show key levels to watch and gauge the progress of the bull-bear battle. The lower bar is at 11.16 and identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm as the key bull-bear level. The upper bar is the 200-day MA at 11.97.

Thus, if the VIX is above 11.97 (trading at 12.47 as this message is typed about 45 minutes before the Thursday morning opening bell), stocks will be selling off and dropping like a stone. Between VIX 11.16 and 11.97, stocks will move sideways with a negative bias. Under 11.16, and the bulls will be sending the stock market to new all-time highs once again. The bears are winning as the Thursday session begins. The bears got game as long as they maintain the VIX above 11.97, call it 12. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:22 AM EST: VIX pops above 15 and is now at 14.42. The bears are extracting a pound of flesh from the bulls today. Volatility pops so stocks dropThe SPX is down 22 points, -0.9%, to 2452. The 50-day MA support is at 2448. Price is in the neighborhood so it should show respect to the 50 today or in the days ahead.

Note Added 11:11 AM EST on Friday Morning, 8/11/17: VIX pops above 17 and is now at 14.79. The bears are okay as long as VIX remains above that 200-day MA at 12.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Multi-Year Top At Hand

The monthly charts received a new print last Monday on 7/31/17 and a new candlestick is representing August as it develops. The same items are in play as explained in earlier charts. The overbot RSI, stochsatics and money flow are agreeable to a pull back. The rising wedge is an ominous pattern. The red lines show the universal neggie d across all indicators that wants to see lower price sans a tricky RSI. Price prints a record all-time closing high yesterday (8/7/17) at 2480.91 with the all-time high at 2484.04 (from 7/27/17).

Watch the RSI since the bulls are trying to push it above the prior highs in 2014-2015. If stocks sell off this month, the RSI will come down and not be as high as it now appears. If the RSI ends August with a higher high, that will create 2 or 3 more months of juice to keep stocks elevated. Judging by the chart now, the long multi-year stock market rally is ending. It is in the final throes.

The SPX has violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 2222 is in play and even the lower band at 1894 as the months play out. Remember the May 2015 top that Keystone called. The neggie d made it an easy call; it was not rocket science. Stocks dropped and then that Tweezer Bottom (blue circle) and lower band violation created the recovery rally in early 2016 which turned out to be another central banker-fueled orgy of upside joy.

The stock market is up for five consecutive months. It is up 9 out of the last 10 months. The global central bankers continue to collude and orchestrate non-stop liquidity around the world and all that cash floating around inflates all asset prices higher. The central bankers are the market.

The ADX is under 26-ish. The ADX above 26 verified the strong trend higher in price during 2014-2015. Now price moves higher with the ADX languishing lower not impressed with the record highs and indicating that the rally move is not a strong trend higher. 

Price is overextended above the moving averages so a mean reversion will be required some day forward and just think, at some point in the future price will be far below the 20-month MA. The 10-mth MA is at 2361 and serves as an early warning signal that markets are in serious trouble and losing control. Old-timers love this number and it is also programmed into algo's. The 12-mth MA is at 2326 is another key level. Keystone calls this the cliff. The 12-mth MA is programmed into the Keybot the Quant algorithm. If 2326 is lost, all hope is lost for the bulls. Stocks will begin tumbling lower in earnest. The 20-mth MA at 2222, which is also the center standard deviation band is a noteworthy target on the table by the end of this year. If stocks sell off and the 10-mth at 2361 holds that will tell you that the bulls are strong and not ready to give up the market as yet.

The stock market should peak out at anytime and roll over likely placing a multi-year top. You may not see the current prices in stocks for many years forward. This was the thought during the May 2015 top but the central bankers did manage another stick save and here we are at the same place again two years later. Since this is a long-term monthly chart, a target of SPX 2222 by year end is a reasonable conclusion from the chart set-up.

Watch the RSI closely. If it remains elevated through August, this will stretch out the topping process a few more weeks or month or three. Otherwise, say if August begins selling off now and prices shrink, that RSI will drop, and the multi-year stock market will top out quicker in the coming days and weeks. Plan accordingly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, August 7, 2017

XLF Financial ETF Weekly Chart; Banks at One-Decade Highs; Rising Wedges; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Price Extended

The XLF is at record highs going back 10 years to 2007. The XLF peaked at 30.99 on 5/31/07 and the banks are now knocking at the 25-31 door again. The banks leap higher starting last November since investors think that President Trump's infrastructure spending and other programs will lead to inflation and higher rates. The expectation is that the 2-10 spread will widen providing an easier path for banks to make profits. Everybody and his bro are loaded up with banks. Aunt Nellie, typically very fugal with her money, dug up her entire life savings from under the patio and placed it all into the large money center and several regional banks like the guy on television advised.

The long-term rising wedge is ominous since the price collapses out of this pattern can be extremely ugly. A rising wedge is also in play this year. The XLF is coming off the overbot levels, stoch's remain overbot, which are agreeable to a pull back. The red lines for the indicators show universal negative divergence. Price is out of gas as it prints new highs. if you enjoyed nice profit in the banks to date, hit the sell button and exit. The XLF likely needs to come back down to tap that lower trend line again. It will be interesting to see if the banks can ever overcome the 2007 highs, or not. The XLF is set up to take a rest for a few weeks as per the neggie d. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:46 PM EST: The XLF ends the session at 25.35 slipping a small -0.2%.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; Battle for 50-Day MA

A key battleground for the new week of trading is the Russell 2000 small caps wrestling with the 50-day MA at 1416. Stock market bulls win big if RUT moves above 1416. Bears win big below 1416. Price was overextended in late July and began to mean revert lower. Note the battle at the 20-day MA that failed, then price plummets to the 50-day immediately.

The 50 failed three days ago and price is now coming back up for a back kiss where it will make a bounce or die decision. Bulls need a rally. Bears need a collapse. The RUT 1212-1216 is a key pivot area that will greatly influence the broad stock market. If price breaks out higher it will seek the 20-day MA at 1428. If price breaks lower it will seek the 100-day MA at 1397. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:09 PM: The battle rages on. The bears were celebrating pushing the RUT down to 1408 but the dip-buyers rush in and shoot the Russell up through the 50 at 1416 to the HOD at 1417.42. The bulls were dancing in the streets but then slipped on a banana peel. The RUT sinks back under the 50-day MA at 1415.63 down to 1414. The 2-minute chart was added so you can see the drama up close. One side or the other is going to win and the broad stock market is likely going to follow the small caps. Bulls need RUT above 1416Bears need RUT under 1415. The 1415.63 is the line in the sand. Price is at 1413.86. The beat goes on. Note the mini textbook inverted H&S (thin brown lines). The head at 1408 and neckline at 1411 targets 1414 after the neckline was broken, which was easily achieved. The market bears should be happy that price came up to back kiss the 50-day since it closed up its loose end, and if it decides to head lower, it may collapse in force since price will be fully committed to move lower after the 50-day is officially lost. 

Note Added 2:55 PM: The RUT is at 1415.10. The 50-day is 1415.64. And the beat goes on.

Note Added 3:18 PM: The RUT is at 1415.47. The 50-day is 1415.65. A game of pennies. It is time to bounce or die. What say you RUT?

Note Added 4:38 PM: The RUT ended the session at 1414.17 so the bears win a battle. A new battle begins tomorrow. The RUT 1415.63 drama continues.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

There is high drama with the BPSPX. As you long-time readers know, the crosses of the 70% level and the six percentage point reversals are key. In late March, the bears started to push the stock market lower with the 6 percentage point reversal off the top and then the drop under 70 in May had the market bears cheering. There was a quick flush in the SPX of about 45 points or so but if you blinked you missed it.

The bulls quickly fight back and in early June poke back above the 70% level creating a market buy signal. The BPSPX moves above 73.4 which is a 6 percentage point reversal so a double whammy buy signal is issued in July. The SPX jumps higher to print the all-time record high at 2484.04 on 7/27/17.

It was a ll wine and roses in July but then price drops like a stone. Remarkably, the BPSPX not only collapses through the 70 level but also prints a 6 percentage point reversal from 75.7 to 69.7. The market bears in one quick move are now on a double-whammy sell signal for the stock market. The Dow printed its eight consecutive record high on Friday at the record high at 22093. Traders are singing songs and drinking Fed wine.

The double whammy sell signal spells trouble ahead for stocks. However, if the bulls can sneak the BPSPX above the 70 level, they can hang in there and send stock prices sideways preventing a move lower. As each hour ticks by and the BPSPX remains under 70, the stock market is going to roll over to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 8/7/17 at 9:55 AM EST: The BPSPX sits at 69.40 as the new week of trading is underway.

Note Added Monday Evening, 8/7/17: The BPSPX ends Monday at, ...... wait for it........ wait a little more....... 69.94 a tiny whisker from the key 70.00 discussed above. Tuesday may be an eventful day in the stock market, one way or the other.

USD US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

The drama continues with the US dollar index and euro. The currency baskets move inversely to each other so the euro pops when the dollar drops and the dollar is popping when the euro is dropping. The trend this year is clearly dollar down and euro up. A lower euro benefits European stock indexes. The 200-week moving averages are playing a key role as highlighted in the previous charts.

The euro punched up through its 200-wk MA at 1.1789 and ran to 1.1909 before retreating back below the 200-wk to 1.1774. The first attempt to poke up through failed. As would be expected, at the same time, the US dollar drops to test its 200-week MA support at 92.36 and bounces strongly. The positive divergence on the daily chart was previously highlighted. USD has also violated its lower standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 97.31, and dropping fast, is in play.

The 2-1/2 year sideways channel at 93-101 or 92-101 if you prefer remains in play and price is deciding if it will collapse under the bottom trend line, or not. An important confluence exists with the 200-week MA, horizontal price support, and the lower band violation. The direction of the dollar from this area is very important.

The daily chart's possie d and ovesold RSI and stoch's create the pop in price. The 20-day MA is at 94.06 and should be kissed. The weekly chart above shows an oversold RSI and stochastics agreeable to a bounce in the weekly time frame, also positive divergence with the indicators sans the MACD. That MACD line hints that price may come back down again after a few days or week or so of recovery but overall, the set up is agreeable to the USD moving sideways and hanging on to the lower part of that channel on the weekly basis.

The intraweek spike low candlestick last week is similar to two others over the last couple years which bounced price sideways for a month or so then higher (purple lines). The monthly chart favors more weakness ahead further out on the monthly basis. Probably a lot of sideways choppy slop ahead and perhaps a bias lower as the end of the year approaches. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

July Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-07 Available from Amazon; All-Time Record Stock Market Highs Continue; DOW 22093, NYA 12013, SPX 2484, COMPQ 6461, NDX 5996, RUT 1452, TRAN 9764; Obamacare Repeal and Replace Bill Fails in Senate; US Dollar Index Drops Euro Pops; Government Leaks; Whitehouse Drama; Humans Embrace Chip Implants the Mark of the Beast

The July Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and WorldEconomics 2017-07 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue higher.

July Cover Highlights;
DOW 22093, NYA 12013, SPX 2484, COMPQ 6461, NDX 5996, RUT 1452, TRAN 9764

The July chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs. India’s BSE Sensex is above 32K. The Dow Industrials print above 22K in early August another milestone. The Dow Transports, however, are sinking like a stone. As July ends and August begins, the Dow Industrials (INDU or DJI) and the NYSE Composite (NYA) are printing record highs while the other indexes watch. Either the Dow and NYA are leading the broad market higher going forward, or, these two indexes will roll over to the downside. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is below its 50-day MA which will be tested in the days ahead.

The US dollar index and euro make big moves; these currency baskets move inverse to each other since they are weighted with each other’s currency. The dollar is sinking so the euro is bouncing. The euro tagged 1.19. Both the euro and dollar are testing their 200-week MA’s, resistance for the euro and support for the dollar, and that battle continues for the days ahead.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with personnel changes occurring after only six months. The Russia and other investigations continue. Leaks from the government are damaging President Trump and the country. There are five times as many leaks occurring as compared to prior presidents.

There are democrats and liberals that pursue a progressive agenda for the country that are seeking to undermine and damage the president as well as establishment demopublican and republocrat politicians that do not want their beltway parties to end that have a vested interest in seeing the president fail. These groups are referred to as the ‘deep state’ that continue leaking sensitive government information hoping to embarrass and damage President Trump. America has become ill.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The July 2017-08 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 9/2/17.

Charts, technical analysis, trading commentary and blog posts on the KE Stone websites (Keystone the Scribe, The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant) are supported by the advertising revenue, donations and book sales. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

AAPL Apple Monthly Chart; Record High 159.75; Multi-Year Top At Hand; Negative Divergence; Overbot; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended to Upside

Keystone has been posting the Apple charts monitoring when the multi-year top will occur and now is the time, say anytime over the next couple-three months. The snare drums are rattling as Apple walks to the gallows. It was a great, wonderful and long party but alas, all parties have to come to an end. Wall Street analysts continue to cheerlead for Apple and expect higher and higher stock prices ahead but they are drunk on the Apple wine and no longer thinking coherently. The monthly chart says the party is over.

The iPhone 8, or whatever it may be called (Apple may cal lit iPhone X (think Roman Numeral X) or iPhone Pro or something else to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of the iPhone), is touted as the key to more new highs ahead. Maybe it is, but the chart above says no. The only thing that can change the negativity on the chart is if the MACD  line comes up for a higher high compared to 2015; this will delay the multi-year high by another couple months or so.

But the call now is that Apple is cooked. CEO Cook is baked. The top is very likely a multi-year top which makes the situation very important. Price makes a higher high after the earnings report last week, a new all-time high at 159.75. Apple enthusiasts are dancing in the streets. Another couple weeks should be provided to note the full impact of the earnings release.

The red lines show the negative divergence occurring across all indicators from 2015 to now. Price prints the all-time high but the indicators are out of juice. Price floats higher on fumes. Note the MACD line is long and strong over the last few months, ditto the money flow, and these two will try to create another jog move higher such as down August, up September then down October but price may simply begin lower at anytime from here.The overbot RSI is agreeable to a pullback. 

Price is well extended above the moving average lines and requires a mean reversion lower. Just think, AAPL price will someday well into the future print below the long-term 200-week MA that is currently down at 42 (perhaps about 5 to 10 years from now AAPL will be in the 50 to 100 range). Note how the volume has trended lower ever since the 2008-2009 highs.

AAPL has tagged the upper standard deviation band so in this monthly time frame the middle band at 119 is in play; this would be a target that has potential to print this year.  A drop from 156 to 119 would be a -24% drop, or that would actually be called a crash, into a bear market.

The ADX line is interesting you can see the very strong trend higher for price from 2004-2008 (blue box). Then the financial crisis hit and all stocks dropped. AAPL then rallied again and it was a strong trend higher in 2011-2012 but that petered out. The latest rally was a strong trend for a few months in 2015 just as price topped out but that petered out. Despite the new record high in Apple, the ADX is not impressed down at 28. The price action for the last few months is not a strong trend higher.

Apple bulls need the ADX up in that blue box in the right margin next year and all will be fine. Apple bears need the ADX to stumble sideways. If Apple price rolls over in force watch the ADX closely since if it then rises above 30, 35, and higher it will prove that the selling action is in a strong downside trend. That will create Apple angst and perhaps even panic. By then, anyone that stayed in Apple would already be holding their heads in their hands.

The chart says a major top for Apple is printing currently. When she rolls over at anytime during the days and weeks ahead, these prices may never be seen again. It is wise to exit the stock and bid it farewell. If it is tough for you to breakup with pretty Apple, scale yourself out by selling one-third now, one-third in 2 or 3 weeks and then the final third 2 or 3 weeks after that. Apple is mainly just a smartphone company and everybody and his bro are making smartphones nowadays. The late adopters buying smartphones are far more price conscience than early adopters. Apple's strong suit is all the loyal groupies that help support the company.

If you listen real close, you can hear Bob Hope singing in the background one of his most notable tunes, "Thanks for the Memory." Thanks for the memory Apple, but now is the time to give you the old soft shoe out the door. A drop in Apple will have a serious negative impact on the stock market especially the Dow and Nasdaq indexes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Industrials 10-Minute Chart; DOW PRINTS 22,000 FIRST TIME IN HISTORY

On Wednesday, 8/2/17, at the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrials, INDU or DJI, print above 22,000 for the first time in history. Price oscillates above and below 22K on Wednesday but begins to elevate on Thursday, 8/3/17. In the afternoon on Thursday, the FBI Special counsel Mueller impanels a Grand Jury for the Russia investigations and stocks fall (two red circles).

The Dow quickly recovers gapping higher Friday morning on the jobs report. The blue ascending triangle is in play with a vertical side at about 40 points. An ascending triangle is bullish so the breakout from 22075 targets 22115. Price may want to come back for a back kiss of the triangle breakout line. The full moon peaks at 2:30 PM EST on Monday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon.

The universal consensus on wall Street is bullish with many pundits already talking about Dow 23K. Every day is a party with the Federal Reserve and other central banker's thumbs on the scale. The all-time closing and intraday highs in the Dow Jones Industrials are both currently at 22092.81 (the Dow closed at the high on Friday). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Minute Charts; FBI Special Counsel Mueller Impanels Grand Jury

On Thursday, 8/3/17, in the afternoon, the SPX took a 5-point nosedive on news that FBI Special Counsel Mueller impanels a Grand Jury concerning the Russia investigations into potential collusion between the Trump campaign and the Ruskies before, during and after the election last fall. A grand jury would be expected for this large an investigation that expands each week, however, it is never good news since a grand jury typically indicts someone. There remains zero evidence that President Trump did anything wrong.

The SPX hits an air pocket dropping from 2474 to 2469 in 3 minutes. However, there is no reason to worry since central bankers will keep printing money and maintaining a flood of global liquidity to keep floating equity prices higher. Price retraces to its 62% Fibonacci retracement at 2472 for the sudden collapse. Then, the next day, Friday, the S&P 500 gaps higher on the jobs report as shown in the 5-minute chart. The purple box shows the 1-minute chart highlighting the drop on the grand jury news.

The 5-minute has a sideways symmetrical triangle in play with the vertical side at about 8 points so the breakout from 2475-ish targets 2483-ish. The full moon peaks for the month at 2:30 PM EST on Monday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon. Price may come back to tap the upper trend line to make sure that it wants to head higher.

Traders are not concerned about any bad news. Comically, they are too busy buying blue-chip dividend stocks at the ask. The pundits parade across television screens one more bullish than the next. Volatility remains at multi-decade lows. VIX 10.03. Trades sip Fed wine all day long and complement each other on how smart they are at picking stocks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

SPX 2-Hour Chart; Sideways Channel

Every day is drama in the Whitehouse as well as the markets. The red lines show the rising wedge, neggie d and overbot conditions creating the expected spankdown but the Federal Reserve rides to the rescue as usual creating more oomph in equities. The maroon lines forecast another top with the rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d and price is spanked down again but the drastic fall in the US dollar index creates another recovery for the SPX.

Price is stumbling sideways now and impacted by the dollar weakness. The lower dollar sends commodities and oil higher and the corresponding commodity, oil, and energy stocks higher goosing the broad stock indexes higher. The S&P 500 now staggers sideways like a drunk on Saturday night in Times Square. The chart indicators are non-committal in either direction.

The SPX spank down from the maroon lines and upper band violation tags the middle band, then the lower band and that is when the dollar weakness kicks in causing price to move back to the  middle band at 2474. The sideways blue channel is in play and price threatens to break out higher from the top trend line at 2475-ish. Looking at the SPX S/R information from the weekend, the 2475 is resistance. If that is taken out, the 2478 R is next and then 2484 R these two numbers representing the all-time closing high and all-time intraday high, respectively. So this current dance at SPX 2475 is an important level.

Price came down to fill the gap at 2460-2465 previously discussed but then jumped higher on the weaker dollar. The S&P 500 can still be considered to be on an island above 2465. Bulls win big above 2475 since price will likely run higher to test the all-time highs. Bears need a failure through the 2460-2465 gap before they can cheer.

Volatility remains subdued punching the bears in the face day after day. The VIX is at 10.16. Watch to see if price breaks out above 2475, or not. Other than that, the stock market is very dependent on the US dollar index. A recovery in the dollar will likely cause stocks to retreat. Further dollar weakness should send stocks to new record highs.

The low ADX indicates that the move higher in the SPX in July was not a strong trend. Considering that the index is near or at record highs, the ADX should be well above 30 indicating that the upside trend is strong. Instead it languishes down at 19. The most important factor in markets is likely the comments and words that come out of ECB President Draghi's mouth this month since he will move the euro and the US dollar index moves inversely to the euro. Watch that blue channel on this very short term (VST) basis. The SPX is printing at 2476. The bulls and bears are battling at this 2475-2476 level. The bears must make a stand, otherwise, a test of new record highs is on tap.

The Dow Jones Industrials, INDU or DJI, print at 21990.96 thus far today, a new all-time record high, within 10 points of the coveted 22K level. Obviously, if the SPX breaks out above 2475, the Dow 22K is a done deal. If the bears hold the line at 2475 and send price lower, the Dow 22K number will likely remain elusive. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added at 2:21 PM EST: The battle continues at 2475-2476 since lunch time. Price is still deciding which way to go. There is an ascending triangle on the minute charts so if the SPX moves above 2476.76, price will likely immediately jump to 2479 in a flash. Bears need to push price under 2475 as soon as possible. The SPX is at 2476.56. The beat goes on.

USD US Dollar Index Weekly and Daily Charts

Keystone posted the USD daily chart last week that was hinting at a recovery due to the positive divergence and oversold conditions but the caveat was the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, 7/26/17. Even with a potential bounce, the weekly chart remained weak so any bounce was expected to fail with new lower lows on the way in the weekly time frame. As it played out, the Fed is backing slightly away from its rate hiking plans (although the FOMC officially expects to implement one more rate hike this year) which dropped the dollar like a stone. The economic data in Europe is generally meeting or beating expectations so the euro rises exacerbating the drop in the dollar (the euro and dollar currency baskets contain large amounts of each other's currency so the two indexes move inversely to one another).

In addition, the daily theatrics and drama at the Whitehouse creates dollar weakness. The dollar collapses and the projection for a quick and short recovery rally (blue lines) immediately falls by the wayside. Price plummets to a 92-handle and rides the lower standard deviation band lower. Since the lower band is violated, a move back to the middle band at 94.65, and falling, at a minimum, is on the table.

Technical damage occurs with the drop creating a much weaker environment for the dollar index. The indicators are mixed on both charts. On the daily chart, the RSI is oversold agreeable to a bounce. Ditto the oversold stochastics with positive divergence. The histogram is also positively diverged wanting price to recover. The MACD line and ROC, however, are weak and bleak wanting lower lows in USD after any bounce occurs in the daily time frame.

On the weekly chart, lower lows occur as was expected. What was not expected was the bottom falling out in the dollar. In the last month, price falls from a 96-handle to a 92-handle. Central bankers are not as concerned about actual values of indexes and data as much as the velocity or rate of the moves and the dollar and euro sharp moves, lower and higher, respectively, creates angst with Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi, respectively.

The 2-1/2 year sideways channel at 92-ish to 100-ish remains in play. The critical 200-week MA is at 92.36 which acts as support. Price came down to 92.64 to take an initial look. This confluence of the lower channel line and 200-week MA is a line in the sand. The dollar will bounce or die from this 92-ish level as August plays out.

The stochastics on the weekly chart are oversold and agreeable to a bounce occurring in the weekly time frame even if it is a dead-cat bounce. The RSI is also oversold agreeable to a bounce but a lower low occurs wanting price to come back down after any bounce would occur in this weekly time frame. The MACD and ROC lines are weak and bleak wanting lower lows after any bounce occurs in the weekly time frame. The action in the dollar may become choppy sideways in this 92-93 area over the coming days and week or three.

The expectation is for choppy sideways action at 92.0-94.5 for early and mid-August. The European Central Bank and specifically, President Draghi, holds the key for the move in the dollar going forward. Draghi did not appear overly concerned that the euro was rising (due to falling dollar) but the stage may have lost a great actor when he went to work at the ECB. Draghi is likely losing sleep every night over the higher euro since it will hurt stock prices across the pond going forward.

Super Mario speaks at Jackson Hole which is coming fast at 8/24/17 through 8/26/17. Draghi's words from Wyoming will dictate whether the US dollar collapses from the long-term sideways channel and 200-week MA, or, if it recovers higher staying within the safety of the sideways channel. Draghi may speak dovishly with the intent of weakening the euro to help European stocks which would send the US dollar index higher. The dollar and euro will likely chop sideways until Draghi takes the podium in scenic Wyoming within 25 days and extends his arm, like Julius Caesar in ancient Rome, turning a thumbs up or down for the euro, and the dollar will move inversely. 

Interestingly, the euro, $XEU, is at 1.18 and its 200-week MA is at 1.1789. The euro charts are basically the mirror image of the dollar charts above. Thus, the euro is first to test its 200-week MA resistance before the dollar tests its 200-week MA support. The high in the euro is 1.1846 which poked substantially above the 200-week MA but quickly retreats to rethink the potential breakout from 1.1789. The longer the euro remains above 1.1789, the more likely the dollar will keep dropping like a rock. If the euro retreats below 1.1789, spanked down from the 200-week, this opens the door to a relief rally for the USD. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite 1-Minute Chart; NYA Tags 12K First Time in History

The NYA, the NYSE Compsoite Index, tags 12K for the first time in history. The Dow Jones Industrials printed within 12 points of 22K today, Tuesday, 8/1/17, but has not yet attained this psychological 22K round number only a few points away. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.