Friday, October 6, 2017

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

The 6 percentage-point reversals and 70% level are key for the BPSPX indicator. In May, the double-whammy sell signal was short lived. The bulls send the BPSPX above 70 for a buy signal and the 6-point reversal occurs in early July for the double-whammy buy signal.

The bears fight back in August sending the BPSPX under 70 for a sell signal and then under 69.5 for a double-whammy sell signal. The stock market bottoms in August and the bulls rally stocks higher. The BPSPX moves above the 70 level and prints a 6-point reversal during September for a double-whammy buy signal which remains in play. The bulls are unstoppable with the central bankers and happy tax-cut talk pumping stocks higher.

The bulls are in good shape unless the BPSPX slips under 70 which would be a sell signal. If the BPSPX drops under 66.80 (72.80-6.00) a double-whammy sell signal would occur. For now, the bulls rule the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Upward-Sloping Channel; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The SPX 2-hour chart is topping in the near-term. Note the firm negative divergence with the MACD, stochastics and money flow. The stoch's and RSI are overbot. The red rising wedge pattern is in play. Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 2517 and rising, at a minimum, would be needed. Price is at the top trend line of the upward-sloping blue channel and must decide to bounce above or die. All these factors are bearish.

The bulls are strong, however, and managed a higher high in the RSI. There is also some near-term juice in the MACD line. The SPX will not roll over until these two indicators go neggie d. Thus, a jog move is likely where price will fall for a candlestick, then come back up again for a higher high and at that time the RSI will likely roll over with neggie d and identify the near-term top. S&P futures are -1 about five hours before Wednesday's opening bell. 

So a jog move down then up then roll over, or, down then up then down then up then roll over is the likely outcome. The candlesticks are 2 hour trading increments. So the near term top for the stock market is from 2 to 8 hours away and more likely in about 4 hours which would be this afternoon.

Fed Chair Yellen speaks at 3:15 PM EST today with 45 minutes remaining before the closing bell. Yellen can extend the topping process by flapping her dovish wings. Always remember, the central bankers are the market. Otherwise, the expectation would be for stocks to top out today and fall into tomorrow.

The full moon peaks for the month at 2:40 PM tomorrow and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon. Perhaps a slight recovery will occur from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning when the Monthly Jobs Report is released. The bears are ready to take a turn at bat later today as long as Yellen does not take away the bat and ball with her typical dovish talk. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:33 PM EST on Thursday, 10/5/17: As usual, Yellen flies in on her white dove promising easy regulations for banks. Although she did not comment directly on monetary policy, Yellen said the Federal Reserve is actively working towards reducing banking regulations especially for the regional banks. That is music to Wall Street's ears. Yellen's term ends on 2/3/18 so for the next four months she will be pumping the banks higher. Of course she will. If she retires in February, by next summer she will appear at a token luncheon hosted by Goldman Sachs or another investment bank where she will be handed $250K or more just like former Fed Chairman Bernanke. The Fed members are rewarded handsomely by the investment bankers for their dovish loyalty once they leave office. The  privileged elite class always protects their own. So the RSI places a higher high and you know that price is not yet ready to roll over. The SPX prints a higher high and the RSI and MACD slope higher now providing a little more upside juice. The stochastics and RSI remain overbot. The stoch's, MACD histogram, and money flow indicators remain neggie d and want to see price roll over to the downside. So the RSI and MACD line have to negatively diverge to place the near-term top so probably a jog move down then back up (where the RSI will likely go neggie d) then down then back up for another high (where the MACD line and all indicators should be neggie d) and the top will be in. Yellen squeezed out another dozen SPX handles by flapping her dovish wings concerning the banks. So the top is likely 2 to 4 candlesticks away which is 4 to 8 hours. The full moon peaks for the month at 2:40 PM only an hour away so stocks may remain buoyant today. The SPX near-term top target is tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. The Monthly Jobs Report drops in the morning.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keybot the Quant flips bullish last Friday but is now in position to flip back to the bear side. If the SPX drops below 2529 tomorrow, Keybot will likely flip short. As always, more information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Monday, October 2, 2017

September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is Available from Amazon; Stock Market Record Highs; SPX 2519; INDU 22420; COMPQ 6498; NDX 6013; RUT 1494; NYA 12209; TRAN 9935; Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria; Puerto Rico Devastated; Mexico Earthquake; Bitcoin 5000+; North Korea Tests H-Bomb; London “Bucket Bomb” Terror Attack; Brent Oil Golden Cross; Apple Unveils iPhone 8 and X (10); German Chancellor Merkel Wins Reelection

The September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

September Cover Highlights;
SPX 2519, INDU 22420, COMPQ 6498, NDX 6013, RUT 1494, NYA 12209, TRAN 9935

The September chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major indexes. Bitcoin prints above 5000 but retreats as China places more restrictions on cyber currencies. Brent oil prints a golden cross stock chart pattern indicating more new highs ahead although West Texas Intermediate Crude oil has not printed a golden cross as yet.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with 16 key personnel changes occurring after only eight months an unprecedented revolving door. North Korea tests an H-Bomb that rocks the world. London is hit with another terrorist attack. German Chancellor Merkel is reelected.

Hurricanes slap the Caribbean Islands and United States. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are destroyed. Mexico is hit with a major earthquake.

Appple unveils the new iPhone 8 and X (pronounced 10) models. The iPhone X has a new fancy facial recognition system that failed during the stage presentation. Production problems are occurring with the iPhone X as the facial recognition sensors are not working as well as expected.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The October 2017-10 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 11/4/17.

The very popular Keystone Speculator stock, bond and currency (Forex) charts and technical analysis, Keybot the Quant algorithm status and Keystone the Scribe daily market chronology postings only continue if supported by the 100’s of thousands of international viewers each month. Content is posted in proportion to the support received. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Brent Oil Daily Chart; Golden Cross; Bull Flag

Brent oil prints a golden cross today where the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA forecasting more upside joy ahead. The chart shows the 50 still 2 cents below the 200 but during the session it was above. Price retreated during the session so the 50 lost a couple pennies. It should clearly print the golden cross tomorrow and this week.

The death cross occurred in early June. As typically happens, the stock or index will usually reverse when the cross occurs and only move further in that direction if the initial move is extended. The death cross occurs in early June so the expectation is that price will actually pop, and it does, and oil started trending higher retaking the 50-day MA in July. The oil bears could not create lower lows for oil after the June low.

Now that the golden cross occurs, price will likely pull back to take a rest. The red lines show negative divergence and overbot stochastics and RSI all wanting price to move lower. The MACD line, however, wants another higher high in price after a pull back in this daily time frame. At that time, the MACD will likely show neggie d and indicate a more firm top in this daily time frame and a more extended move lower on tap. Price will likely jog lower for a day or two, then come back up to satisfy the MACD line. At that time, check to see if the MACD goes neggie d, if so, the top is in for this daily time frame.

The neon blue lines show a textbook two-leg bull flag. The first leg is from 53.0 to 44.5 an 8.5 point gain. Price then consolidates sideways to sideways lower forming the bull flag or pennant. Leg two then begins moving higher starting at 50-ish. Thus, the target is 58.5 and bingo, the pattern is satisfied. The WTIC oil 50-day MA is moving higher but probably a week or two from a golden cross if oil prices choose to move higher.

The Brent and WTIC oil weekly charts are stumbling sideways. Ditto the monthly charts. Oil may stumble and bumble sideways for many weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; New All-Time Record High; Upward-Sloping Channel; Bull Flag

The small caps join the September bull party. This month is typically the weakest of the year but instead prints wall to wall stock market joy. The RUT prints a new all-time high at 1460.95 and new all-time closing high at 1456.86. TRAN prints a new all-time record as well. These two indexes now join the SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX and NYA that have all printed new all-time record highs this month. Kneel and Praise the Glory and Majesty of the central bankers! Honor and Worship these modern day Money God's in charge of the Temple!

The RUT is at the top rail of the upward-sloping channel so it needs to make a bounce or die decision. Trades are rushing into small cap stocks buying with total disregard for price. The RUT leaps from 1350 to 1461, a 111-point gain, +8.2%, in only 26 days. The Russell is gaining +1% every three days over the last month.

Note the two-leg bull flag pattern shown in neon blue. First leg is from 1350 to 1415 which is 65 handles. Then price consolidates sideways to sideways lower in textbook fashion. Then leg two begins from 1395 so the target is 1460 (1395+65). Bingo. The bull flag pattern is satisfied. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TRAN Dow Transports and INDU Dow Industrials Daily Charts; Dow Theory Upside Confirmation

The Dow Jones Industrials, INDU or DJI, are in a steady uptrend the last few months printing higher lows and higher highs. The trannies confirmed the highs in the industrials into July so the broad market moves higher fully endorsed by Dow Theory upside confirmations. Then a bumpy road started.

The industrials kept printing higher highs but the transports dropped like a stone and began printing lower lows and lower highs a downside trend. The industrials began to follow the trannies lower and then in mid-August the industrials began rallying again and punched out new record highs this month. The trannies gap higher in early September trending higher with higher lows and higher highs.

Then bingo. The Dow Jones Transportation Index prints a new all-time record high at 9796 today. The new record high confirms the new record highs in the industrials from a Dow Theory perspective. Computerized buying programs clicked into gear supporting stocks in the afternoon. Everything keeps going the bulls way as the stock market monthly charts continue to hint that a multi-month and multi-year stock market top is in progress.

Watch the trannies closely to see if they roll over to the downside, or not. Also, since the transports just printed a new record high, look for the industrials to print a new all-time record high to provide another confirmation that the bull party will continue. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side yesterday (Monday) at SPX 2494. Bulls need higher utilities and copper while bears need higher volatility. More info is found on Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Sunday, September 17, 2017


The S&P 500 prints 2500 for the first time in history during the last minute of trading on Friday 9/15/17. The SPX all-time closing high and all-time record high are 2500.23. Price closed at the high. All Hail the Federal Reserve and other central bankers! Kneel and Praise them! Sound the Seven trumpets! Worship the modern-day money-changers in charge of the monetary Temple!

The global central bankers continue colluding to keep the stock markets pumped higher to reward the wealthy. The power of the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) is truly astounding as well as others such as the BOE in the UK and PBOC in China. The central bankers are the market. If you do not understand this fact after 8-1/2 years of out-of-control Keynesian you are simply not paying attention.

The unholy near-nine years of easy money accommodation by the Fed and its partners in crime such as the ECB and BOJ, that only serve to make the wealthy more filthy rich, is so obscene that even Caligula would blush.

The world is awash in liquidity. The dollars, euros and yen have go somewhere so all asset classes including stocks, bonds, art, collectibles, real estate and antique cars, are bid wildly higher week after week. The party continues as long as global market participants maintain their full faith and confidence in the central bankers. When that credibility takes a hit, the end game begins. For now, the band is playing "Happy Days Are Here Again."

Since the SPX 2500 milestone occurs in the final minute before a weekend there were not many traders donning  "SPX 2,500" hats or celebrating. There are two schools of thought with S&P 2,500. The market bulls say the lack of euphoria over the milestone indicates that stocks have a long way to go on the upside. Bulls say that stock market rallies only end when the public is all-in and the euphoria and giddiness is at record levels and we are nowhere near that now. Therefore, the party continues indefinitely.

The market bears say the lack of enthusiasm for the SPX 2500 print is because it occurred right before the weekend when traders are focused on sipping cold beverages. Bears say the lack of enthusiasm for SPX 2500 also proves how it is a given that market participants expect higher record stock prices. Dow 23K, 24K and SPX 2600 are expected. The central bankers have pumped equities higher for nearly nine years and the belief is that no matter what happens domestically or internationally, it all can be fixed by the Fed and other central bankers printing money. This behavior is a case for complacency.

The VIX fell to 10.00 the tiniest hair from a 9-handle on Friday (one penny) proving the fearlessness in markets (but low volatility can remain for a long time). The CPC and CPCE put/calls continue printing low numbers, although the data is becoming more erratic, indicating complacency. The NYMO remains elevated consistent at where tops occur in the near-term.

When market participants are not concerned about major milestones such as SPX 2500 and Dow 22K printing, that hints more of complacency and a belief that markets will never go down since central bankers always step in to save the day. Are the bulls correct or the bears going forward? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The sideways choppy slop continues with the Keybot the Quant algorithm flipping long again at SPX 2484 dancing between the long and short side every few days for the last couple months. Bulls need higher banks and SPX 2500 is on the way. Bears must send banks lower, send retail stocks lower and pump volatility higher. The SPX prints a new all-time record closing high yesterday at 2488.11. The all-time high is 2490.87 from August. The NYA (NYSE Composite) also printed a record closing high yesterday; ditto utilities. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant