Wednesday, April 23, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bullish markets ahead. However, the bears are driving the 8 MA downwards and are trying to stab through the rising 34 MA in the candlesticks ahead, perhaps on either side of lunch time. Bears got nothing unless they achieve the negative 8/34 cross.

The red lines show the negative divergence spank down off the top. RSI and stochastics were also overbot. Note the gap fill needed at the 1872 support. The indicators are weak and bleak and the RSI and stochastics are crossing down through the 50% level into bear territory so lower lows would be anticipated for a few candlesticks forward. Key SPX S/R is 1897, 1891, 1884, 1882, 1878, 1874, 1872, 1868, 1859, 1848, 1841, 1831, 1828, 1816, 1808, 1803 and 1800. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:41 PM:  The bears push lower today and the 8 MA and 34 MA are converging only separated by two points or less now. The bulls are not making it easy, however, and the bulls keep the SPX flat and try to push it higher to prevent the negative 8/34 cross from occurring. The 8 MA is 1877.69 and dropping so as long as price stays under this level the 8 MA will continue lower to create the negative cross. If bulls can push price above 1877.69 and higher they will succeed in maintaining the 8 above the 34 forecasting continued bullishness in markets. The SPX is at 1877.65 so the pivot from here is key. The 1878 is also strong overhead resistance so bulls win above 1878 and bears win below 1878.

Note Added 12:45 PM: The bulls push the SPX to 1878.08 but whoops...... now at 1877.86. The fight at 1878 continues. The bears have an opportunity here but must push the SPX lower right now without delay. Each minute that goes by with the SPX at 1878 and higher means the bears are going to fold like a cheap suit and the bulls will ride on to victory.

Note Added 1:32 PM: SPX 1878.01; the beat goes on. Dollar/yen 102.33. These are the two pivot points. Both will move up, or down, together. RTH 58.97 is a key bull-bear level identified by Keybot the Quant algorithm. RTH is 58.88 on the bear side causing market negativity and placing a lid on the market upside. Bulls must go through RTH 58.97 to paint the picture to SPX 1900. Lots of drama is occurring with the 8/34 cross that remains bullish. The 8 MA is 1877.55. The 34 MA is 1876.26. Now only about a buck or so away from each other. The SPX is printing 1877.66. Bears must quit fooling around and push price lower if they want to take control of markets, otherwise, the bulls will begin to party into the closing bell. TRIN is 1.04 moving lower towards the neutral 1.00 level but has been 1.3-1.4 for much of the day representing orderly non-panic selling in equities.

Note Added 1:47 PM: BPSPX remains on a market sell signal but bulls are pushing price up to 68.80 now only 1.20 away from the 70% level that will create a market buy signal. Equities will have to make a commitment one way or the other this week as signals and parameters set up at inflection points. The lollapalooza of earnings releases will set the market tone. AAPL after the bell in only about two hours time carries a lot of clout and will either create market happiness, or sadness.

Note Added 2:32 PM: The 8 MA is 1876.83. The 34 MA is 1876.78. Five pennies difference.

Note Added 2:37 PM: The 8 MA is 1876.79. The 34 MA is 1876.77. Two pennies difference.

Note Added 2:42 PM: This is comical with the bears so close to a negative 8/34 cross they can taste it, but they cannot cross the finish line. Like a bunch of drunks laying down in a tug-o-war contest, exhausted, neither side able to pull their way to victory.

Note Added 2:44 PM: Bingo; it took the bears all day but they stagger across the goal line. The 8 MA is 1876.75. The 34 MA is 1876.76. The bears create a negative 8/34 cross which signals bearish markets for the hours ahead. See if the bears can hold the negativity through the closing bell to lock-in the bearishness moving forward.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Keystone's Midday Market Action 4/22/14; YUM; T; GILD

The bulls create another up day drinking the Fed's booze and staggering higher. The dollar/yen remains elevated at 102.60 so the weaker yen provides bull fuel. The VIX fell under 13 adding more bull fuel but is now recovering back above 13. The retail sector provides bull juice with RTH moving above the 58.97 critical line in the sand. RTH sneaks above 59 but is tentative so watch it closely. Bears need RTH under 58.97 as soon as possible which will stop the market upside. Bulls will continue moving higher if RTH stays above 58.97. XLF 21.77 remains a key bull-bear line in the sand. XLF is 22.03 moving higher today so that adds bull fuel as well.

Trannies print new highs and the Dow Industrials continue to try and print new highs to confirm the rally from a Dow Theory perspective. The Dow is coming off the highs as VIX moves back above 13 now at 16555. The Dow Theorists need closing prints above 16580 and higher to receive a confirmation for the rally. The BPSPX remains on a market sell signal but is up to 68.40 today only needing a one and one-half point more to receive a market buy signal. The put/call ratio's signal rampant complacency remaining in markets the typical behavior seen at market tops.  TRIN is 0.97 dead flat at the 1.00-ish level. For such a robust up day the TRIN should be down at 0.7 or 0.8 or lower. Interestingly, the 10-year yield is steady at 2.73% so money is not moving out of bonds into stocks; money is simply moving into stocks. Perhaps traders are buying equities with money received inside the Easter card on the weekend.


The SPX punched through the strong 1874 resistance so price immediately catpulted above 1880. Watch the SPX S/R at 1874, 1878, 1882, 1884, 1891 and 1897. The SPX all-time closing high is 1890.90 and all-time intraday high 1897.28. The SPX 2-hour chart is set up with negative divergence except for the MACD line so price should peak out and roll over to the downside at any time today and into tomorrow. YUM earnings are key after the bell since it is a global bellwether especially as a gauge for China since the Chinese are big fans of the Colonel's Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC). T and GILD earnings are also important after the bell.


Keystone took profits on the ARO and FUEL launches today exiting both long positions. Rocket Fuel received its rocket fuel as discussed the other day. Both look good moving forward. Will look to reenter both. Also bot WLT opening a new long position. Walter has been bludgeoned but it has attractive positive divergence. Considering the market complacency think long and hard about any long position held. At least if a quick and sudden downdraft occurs in markets stocks such as ARO, FUEL and WLT should weather the storm better since they have already been beaten down.

Note Added 2:56 PM:  TRIN 0.97. VIX 12.92 under 13 helping bulls. RTH is 58.98 one single hair above danger creating market bullishness, nope, check that, RTH now sitting exactly on the critical 58.97 bull-bear line in the sand. Whichever way retail stocks pivot the broad market will follow. XLF 22.04. SPX HOD at 1884.89 holds for now. SPX is printing 1883.90 so the bears are trying to keep price under the strong 1884 S/R highlighted above.

Note Added 3:07 PM: RTH 58.91 so the pivot was lower. Bears are not going down without a fight. Some market weakness enters as retail loses the coveted RTH 58.97 level. VIX 12.96. Markets will drop more if VIX moves above 13 but will remain elevated into the close if volatility remains under 13. TRIN 0.98. XLF 22.00.

Note Added 3:13 PM: Whoa, Nellie. VIX catapults to 13.23 in an instant. RTH 58.90. XLF 22.01. TRIN 1.02 remaining flat but now favoring bears by two pennies. SPX drops under 1882 due to the weaker retail stocks and higher volatility over the last few minutes.

Note Added 4:03 PM: RTH is 58.86 finishing on the bear side creating market weakness under the 58.97 bull-bear line in the sand. XLF is 21.96 creating market bullishness above the important 21.77 level. VIX is 13.21 under 14.50 bull-bear line creating market bullishness. Watch these three stooges tomorrow. 

SPX 2-Hour Chart

The bulls move relentlessly higher. The SPX punching up through the uber strong 1874 is a stick in the bear's eye and note how price immediately catapulted above 1880. The red lines show a rising wedge now in play as well as overbot stochastics and negative divergence sans the MACD line. The short green line for the MACD line and lack of a negative cross wants price to print another high. Therefore, if it takes one to four candlesticks to roll over that is 2 to 8 hours so by the close tomorrow it is a fair assumption that equities will peak and roll over. The print at today's closing bell may serve as the near-term top.

It does not appear that price wants to go up to the all-time high at 1897.28 again but in these markets anything is game. The all-time closing high is 1890.90. HOD today is 1884.89 only six points away. SPX overhead resistance is 1874, now support, 1878, now support, 1882, 1884, 1891 and 1897. So above 1884 will open the door to 1891. The CPCE put/call ratio chart previously posted forecasts a top in markets now or the days ahead so choose your poison; the 1884-ish and 1891 levels are candidates to provide the market ceiling.

The RSI is not oversold so the bulls may create a Caligula-style orgy to test the all-time high at 1897 (pushing RSI higher) especially if a parade of blow-out earnings occur. YUM earnings after the bell are a global bellwether. Projection is for the SPX to peak before the bell today or tomorrow and roll over to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPCE Put/Call Ratio Weekly Chart Signals Significant Market Top

The rampant market complacency continues. Traders must still be drunk from Easter as they buy stocks indiscriminately fully relaxed in knowing that Fed Chair Yellen, Queen of the Doves, will always create a higher stock market forever with easy money. There is no reason to worry; simply sit back and enjoy the ride and guaranteed higher stock market forever. Of course the regular readership here knows this behavior is a contrarian signal. The rampant complacency signals a significant market top now in place or finishing up in the days ahead.

SPX 1874 is very strong overhead resistance and April began at 1872 thus the 1872-1874 resistance is a key level the bears must hold. Mixing the put/call ratios with the SPX projections, the thought would be that SPX 1874 would have a good chance of holding now and this week and that a downside move should begin at any time forward likely by the end of the month. Short positions should be steadily increased moving forward.


The weekly print is not official until Friday so the 0.47 may not serve as the final print for the week but it verifies the complacency nonetheless. Ditto the CPC put/call. The VIX is in the 13's as well another metric verifying the laissez-faire attitude of long traders. Do not be fooled by the complacency. The bulls created a market bottom days ago with 0.75 which is a cheesy bottom.


Panic and fear will be coming just as day follows night. Increasing long positions is not attractive until the panic and fear arrives. Instead, trimming back and selling off any long you are not willing to hold for several years should be performed now. The long shopping list can be fine-tuned waiting for the blood to appear in the streets above 0.80 and higher and likely far higher since it has been so long since the markets have corrected. The over 5-year rally is one of the longest in stock market history. Watch your wallet. Do not be complacent--you will regret it as the weeks play out. The time is very near where the markets go down and they do not recover perhaps for a few years before the current highs are seen again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3:03 PM: The bulls come to play again and launch up through the strong 1874 resistance so price leaps immediately above 1880 and also above 1884. SPX S/R is 1874, 1878, 1882, 1884, 1891 and 1897. The bulls want to close above 1884 since it lights the path to 1891. Bears need to push price under 1884. Since 1874 folded like a cheap suit, the 1884 or potentially 1891 level are two candidates for the market top.

Monday, April 21, 2014

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 4/21/14

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 4/21/14. The bulls took advantage of the expected pre-holiday bullishness and drove markets higher wall-to-wall last week. Price moving above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1854.78 is a major victory for bulls and predicts bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Bears got nothing until they push the SPX under the 200 EMA at 1855.

Price peaks at 1870 last week only a couple points away from creating a positive month for April. April began at 1872.34. There are 8 trading days remaining in the month. Flying at 40,000 feet, the big picture S/R is 1897, 1891, 1884, 1878, 1874, 1868, 1859, 1848, 1841, 1831, 1828, 1808, 1803, 1800, 1796 and 1791. Flying even higher for the even bigger picture, 1897, 1874, 1848, 1841 and 1803 are the uber-important support and resistance levels. Therefore, watch 1874 like a hawk today. The 1848 number is the strongest S/R level on the entire list and the starting number for the year, thus, very basically, bulls are well in control above 1848 while bears will take over the steering wheel sub 1848.

For Monday starting at 1865, the bulls need to touch the 1870 handle and bingo, an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1857 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1858-1869 is sideways action to begin the week. The 20-day MA is 1858.51 and serves as a major bull-bear line in the sand for early this week. The 50-day MA at 1851.16 is also key moving forward. Volume may be light as traders nurse a percolating stomach full of ham, beer, eggs, peeps, chocolate and jelly beans.

1897 (4/4/14 All-Time Intraday High: 1897.28) (4/4/14 Intraday High for 2014: 1897.28)
1894
1891 (4/2/14 All-Time Closing High: 1890.90) (4/2/14 Closing High for 2014: 1890.90)
1890
1889
1886
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1883
1882
1879
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1877
1876
1875
1874
1872.34 April Begins Here
1872
1871
1869.63 Previous Week’s High
1869.63 Friday HOD
1868
1867
1865.09 Thursday Pre-Holiday Close – Monday Starts Here
1864
1862
1859
1858.51 (20-day MA)
1856.72 Friday LOD
1855
1854.78 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
1853
1852
1851.16 (50-day MA)
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1846
1845
1843
1842
1841
1840
1839
1838
1837
1835
1832.29 (20-week MA)
1832
1831
1830.62 (100-day MA)
1828
1827
1824
1820
1816
1815.80 Previous Week’s Low
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)
1810
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1808
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)
1806
1803
1801
1800
1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)
1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)
1797.89 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
1796
1793
1791
1788
1785
1783
1782
1781
1779.02 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
1777
1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)
1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)
1770
1768
1766.19 (200-day MA; not tested for 1 year extremely odd behavior)
1763
1762
1759
1756
1752.27 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
1752
1748
1747
1746.58 (50-week MA)
1745
1740
1737
1733 (10/17/13 and 1018/13 Gap-Up: 1733.15-1736.72)
1730 (9/19/13 Intraday Top: 1729.86)
1726 (9/18/13 Closing Top: 1725.52)
1722
1720
1711
1710 (8/2/13 Intraday Top: 1709.67)
1708
1706
1703
1700
1698
1697
1696
1693
1692
1691
1689
1688
1687 (5/22/13 Intraday Top: 1687.18)
1686
1685
1683
1682
1680
1675
1672
1669 (5/21/13 Closing Top: 1669.16)
1666
1664
1661
1659
1657
1652
1650

Note Added 9:52 AM: The bulls push price higher to test the strong 1868 overhead resistance, and punch up through. This opens the door to a test of the 1872-1874 area unless the bears can immediately spank price lower under 1868.

Note Added 9:54 AM: SPX 1867.64...1864.67 .... 1867.93... a fight at 1868 S/R begins the week.... 1868.33 ....

Note Added 10:04 AM: Leading Indicators beat at +0.8% providing a market boost. SPX jumps through 1868 resistance, now support and attacks the 1870 handle. If 1870 plus prints, price goes to 1872-1874 for a major decision. Above 1874 and a test of the all-time highs is very likely. Bears have to hold the fort at this critical 1870-1874 level and push price lower.

Friday, April 18, 2014

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up; Good Friday; US Markets Closed Until Monday

US markets are closed today in observance of Good Friday. Easter is Sunday. Markets reopen on Monday. This week results in a strong upside market move negating the downside action the previous week, however, on far lighter volume. The MS and GS earnings pre-market yesterday set the happy tone for financials which in turn set a happy mood for equities. SNDK earnings were better than expected so this pumps the chip stocks. Semiconductors catapult higher providing bull juice and slapping the bears in the face. The energy sector is the new favorite son jumping over +3% this week.

The 10-year yield pops 8 basis points to 2.73% settling at 2.72% representing a risk-on trade. Money flows out of notes and bonds (creating lower prices for Treasuries and correspondingly higher yields) and into stocks. A back kiss of the sideways triangle on the TNX daily chart (scroll back a few pages or type TNX into the search box at the right) at 2.67%-ish was expected, which creates a bounce, or die pivot, and yield decides to rocket launch higher back inside the safety of the sideways triangle. Looking at that chart, which shows the death cross, note how yield tagged the top of the triangle at 2.73% and fell. The range is 2.67%-2.73% of the triangle so note and bond bears, inflationists, will cheer for 2.73% and higher. Note and bond bulls, deflationists, will cheer for a drop under 2.67% again. The range keeps narrowing skinnier and skinnier to 2.68%-2.72%, then 2.69%-2.71%, and bingo, a decision has to be made next week for the 10-year Treasury.

The US and European docile approach to Ukraine causes traders to remain complacent concerning geopolitics. Apparently, Putin will be allowed to take East Ukraine since the West does not have the will to defend the region. Putin threatens to cut off natural gas supplies creating a wild +5% pop in natty gas. He says he will wait a month, however, jerking the string of the natty gas puppet any way he pleases. One-third of Europe's energy needs come from Russia.

The broad markets end mixed for Thursday. The Nasdaq and RUT small caps ran higher; biotech backed away but is up strongly for the week. IBM creates a drag on the Dow contributing 50 negative Dow points (take any Dow component point move and multiply by a rule of thumb of 8 to note its affect on the Dow). AXP and UNH blue chips also created weakness. The XLF stays above 21.77 so higher financials, along with higher semi's and lower volatility, all join to create a triumphant market rally this week.

The bulls are pushing copper higher already laying ground work for next week so start watching the 'other yellow metal' more closely in the days ahead. The SPX dropped into the 1858-1859 support zone that the bears needed and lower, but the bulls simply back tested and then ran higher to close the SPX at 1865. The SPX broke out above the 20-day MA at 1858.51. Also the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1854.78 which signals bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Bears got nothing unless they push back under these critical 1858-1859 and 1855 support levels.

Bulls perform a strong comeback albeit on light volume and benefiting from the seasonal bullishness and happy talk concerning Ukraine. Last weekend the thought was raised about a wall-to-wall bull run, which occurred. The full moon was Tuesday and markets are typically bullish through the full moon nearly 70% of the time. During OpEx week the path from Tuesday to Wednesday is typically bullish. Markets are bullish the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend. All true this time around. So seasonality favoritism overcomes the negativity associated with the up move on weaker volume. The BPSPX chart (see this morning's chart) remains on a sell signal.

On trades, Keystone added to the ongoing ARO (long retail), SSNI (long power), SMN (short basic materials) and SJB (short high-yield) long trades. ARO has to make a decision next week. Either it wants to perform a successful positive divergence bounce like JCP or will result in a crumbling mess like RSH. Note the ARO weekly chart shows a slipping money flow so some additional time, a few weeks, will be needed to place an official bottom. In the very short term, ARO should bounce from the daily chart. Also bot FUEL opening a new long position. FUEL is bludgeoned from 73 to 35 and is set up or setting up with positive divergence on the daily chart so it is sitting on the launch pad. How appropriate that its name is Rocket Fuel. A launch is expected, however, the weekly chart remains weak so in this trade timing is everything. A very short term bounce is expected then likely more weakness but FUEL should base as the weeks play out and recover higher and can likely be considered as a longer term hold moving through the year. Keystone is watching SDRL with interest for a potential long trade but give it a few more days to simmer and it can be considered next week.

Happy Easter. Stomachs are already aching percolating from a mixture of chocolate, jelly beans, hard-boiled eggs, ham and peeps.

BPSPX Bullish Percent Daily Chart Maintains Market Sell Signal

The BPSPX is unimpressed with the strong upside market orgy this week. The broad indexes jump about +2.5% across the board in only four short days. Note, however, the BPSPX moving only a paltry amount higher, so far. When the BPSPX reverses six percentage-points it issues a market buy, or sell, signal depending on which way the reversal occurs. Then when price crosses the 70% level the move receives stronger strength in the same direction with a double-whammy buy, or sell signal. The bulls receive the BPSPX blessing in February and markets run higher into March. The bears are anointed in March and early April leading to the market collapse the previous week. This negative double-whammy sell signal (reverse from 76 and change down to 70 and change and the drop under 70) remains in play.

The BPSPX bottoms a couple days ago at 65, hence, 65 + 6 = 71 target for a bull reversal. Since the critical 70 level is nearer, the bulls will receive upside rally confirmation if the BPSPX moves above 70 and if price moves above 71 the path to new all-time highs and the SPX above 1900 will receive the go ahead. Bears need to keep the BPSPX under 70 and they are fine moving forward since the market rally will only be a simple relief rally that reverses with stronger downside action beginning again. So check the BPSPX each day next week after the closing bell to see who wins moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips bullish at SPX 1859 this afternoon. XLF 21.77 will be key at tomorrow's opening bell. VIX 14.77 and SOX 563.10 also remain important. All three leap into the bull camp today so higher financials, lower volatility and higher semiconductors created the upside orgy. As always stay alert for a whipsaw. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Keystone's Midday Market Action 4/16/14: BAC; Housing Starts; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks; AXP; GOOG; IBM

Another high drama day occurs as Fed Chair Yellen does a song and dance in front of a cheering crowd. She promises more sugar candy just as traders hope but equity markets stall at their highs. Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. If the SPX moves above 1858.45, and this level holds for several minutes, Keybot will likely flip long. The algorithm is tracking three key components that dictate market direction today; VIX 14.77, SOX 563.10 and XLF 21.77. Lower volatilty and higher semiconductors, respectively, pump the stock market higher today. Financials cannot yet develop the strength to move above XLF 21.77 remaining in the bear camp mainly due to BAC laying an earnings egg this morning. Thus, the bears can stop the market upside and prevent Keybot from going long the market if either VIX moves above 14.77 and/or SOX under 563.10. The bulls wil receive further upside fuel if XLF moves above 21.77.

Housing Starts are disappointing remaining under the one million mark and may be stalling moving forward. The markets exhibit more drama and theatrics than a Broadway production. VIX 14.77, SOX 563.10 and XLF 21.77 dictate market direction.

Note Added 1:01 PM: Chair Yellen is taking Q&A right now spinning yarns. SPX is 1854.05 about four points under the 1858.45 target the bulls need to pop the champagne corks. VIX is 14.63 fourteen pennies under the 14.77 bull-bear line in the sand causing market bullishness. SOX is 563.83 above the critical 563.10 bull-bear line causing market bullishness. XLF is 21.73 only four pennies on the bear side of the important 21.77 bull-bear level causing market negativity. The dollar/yen remains elevated today at 102.30 which easily allows bulls to keep the stock market elevated. The beat goes on.

Note Added 1:07 PM:  VIX 14.79. See if the bears can maintain the higher volatility, if so, markets should drift lower. SOX moves lower and bounces off the 563.10 level remaining in the bull camp.

Note Added 1:10 PM: VIX 14.71. The SPX is playing around at the S/R levels mentioned in the previous missive. Note how the 1859 resistance ceiling has held so far today. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart is 1853.94. The SPX is 1853.41. How about that? A dramatic bull-bear fight is occurring today. The SPX is smack-dab between the 20-day MA at 1858.42 above (another upside resistance level that has held today with HOD at 1858.45 almost to the penny back kissing this critical moving average) and the 50-day MA at 1848.72 below. The year began at 1848. Bulls win if price jumps up through the 20-day and upper resistance at 1858-1859 while bears win if price drops under the 50-day MA and starting year number at 1848-1849. The theatrics continue.

Note Added 1:20 PM: Yellen finishes the Q&A and is carried off on the shoulders of analysts, traders and journalists to resounding applause. SPX is 1854.77. Okay market, what is your decision?

Note Added 1:24 PM: VIX is 14.49. SOX is 565.66. XLF is 21.74. Dollar/yen 102.27. SPX 1855.95. So same-o same-o. Lower volatility, higher semi's and stable dollar/yen at elevated levels all create market lift todayFinancials create market weakness. The SPX must decide to poke above 1858-1859, or, collapse under 1848-1849. Flip a coin.

Note Added 7:44 PM: The XLF punched up through 21.77 creating the afternoon upside orgy. Keybot the Quant turns bullish at SPX 1859. The bulls win punching up through the critical upside resistance at 1858-1859 as highlighted above. This level remains key. Since tomorrow is the last day of trading for the week the bulls may simply try to slide the markets out sideways into the holiday weekend. Bears need to push the SPX back under 1858-1859 and their only chance is tomorrow. If the bulls remain above, the SPX will likely head another ten or twenty handles higher. OpEx may cause some craziness; volume at the open and close should be robust. The bulls came to play today. The bears put up a noble fight but once the financials turned bullish it was over. Interestingly, traders do not care about geopolitics. Ukraine, schmoocraine. Will they care if Putin takes over East Ukraine just like Crimea?.

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross

The SPX remains under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1854.00 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. S&P futures are +9 projecting a strong open which will attack this key level. Bulls got nothing unless they punch up through the 200 EMA at 1854 and if so, will chart a path up to the all-time highs. The red lines show the negative divergence spank down highlighted a few days ago and textbook tweezer top (red circle). The green falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence create the bounce off the bottom. Note how the MACD line and money flow are not happy with price moving higher but other market forces and the positive RSI, stochastics and histogram push price higher anyway.

Price prints a higher high during yesterday's session and that comes with all indicators long and strong so more highs are anticipated. There is no sign of negative divergence so at least one to four or more candlesticks may be needed to create neggie d. This would take markets into this afternoon and tomorrow morning. Since seasonality and OpEx factors favor bulls to end the holiday-shortened week the bulls may have an easy time to keep markets elevated into the Easter weekend. Markets are typically bullish the two days leading into a three-day holiday weekend.

The year began at 1848. The 200 EMA is 1854. The 50-day MA is 1846.75 and rising. The 20-day MA is 1858.79 and falling. The big picture S/R is 1897, 1891, 1884, 1878, 1874, 1868, 1859, 1848, 1841, 1828, 1808, 1803, 1800 and 1796. Price favored a sideways channel at 1816-1834 for the last three days with price breaking up and out of this channel yesterday. As price elevates today watch S/R at 1841, 1847-1848, 1854 and 1859. The bulls will be popping champagne corks if they move above 1854. A move through 1841-1854, or even 1841-1859 today and tomorrow into the holiday weekend will place the markets on hold until next week where the firm commitment on direction would be decided. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.