Monday, May 2, 2016

TWTR Twitter Weekly Chart Falling Wedge Positive Divergence

Everybody hates Twitter. The management under CEO Jack Dorsey appears disjointed as the fledgling social internet company struggles. FB keeps stealing away the real-time event audience that Twitter always enjoyed a monopoly on. Investors have given up on the tweety bird; many analysts and traders say all is lost. When the sea of negativity is so thick you can cut it with a knife, that may be an interesting opportunity.

Twitter maintains a loyal following and it is going through growing pains. Many users would never want to deal with the Facebook drama and Twitter provides a clean and easy service. Tweets can be read by googling key words and no one has to be a member to read tweets. Twitter also remains a takeover possibility. Perhaps a white knight like AAPL, or GOOGL or other tech company with deep pockets will find a fit for Twitter within its own structure and plans. You never want to buy a stock based on a takeover possibility but with beaten-down TWTR it is a plus.

The red sideways triangle failed about one year ago. Remember how Keystone charted that triangle from late 2014 into 2015 and we were waiting for the resolution? Price collapsed out the bottom of the apex of the triangle at the 40 level. The vertical side of the triangle  is 40 which targets zero for price but that should not happen. Using about a 30-handle target drop instead would target this 10-15 area which has been achieved. You can say the sideways triangle pattern has played out.

The green falling wedge is in play along with universal positive divergence across all indicators. Price should bounce in the weekly time frame. TWTR violated the lower band and then returned to the middle band, but dropped again so that lower band at 13.05 must be left open as a possibility. The expectation is for TWTR to bounce strongly over the coming weeks perhaps moving back up towards 20.

The trade is tricky, however, since the monthly chart remains weak and after a few weeks of happiness, Twitter will likely roll back over and come back down to the 13-15 area, say in June-July. Overall, however, it seems that much of the worst weakness is over and TWTR may base for the next few months. And that takeover possibility always lingers so Twitter is a stock that may be up  +20% on any given morning if a takeover is announced. Of course catching falling knives may result in a bloody hand.

The ADX remans well above 30 so the downward trend in TWTR remains strong. When the ADX falls under 30 you will know that Twitter has firmly based and will likely move sideways to sideways higher going forward. Keystone just bot TWTR opening a new long position in the flailing tweety bird. The trade will be added to in this 13.0-14.5 range. Target would be say, 16-20 this month or early June. The trade will be exited if a half-decent gain appears due to the weakness in the monthly chart. Then a very long term position on Twitter is much more attractive say from the summer time forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart Tight Standard Deviation Bands to Squeeze-Out Huge Move in May-July Epic and Historic Move Coming

The monthly charts receive a new data point on Friday with the end of April that ended positively. The dark green lines show the tight standard deviation bands squeezing in tight and price is about to either explode higher or collapse lower in the May-July time frame. The bands indicate that an epic market move is coming very soon. Tight bands do not predict direction only that the move will be big; it would be expected that the SPX may move 200-400 handles (in the same direction) over the next couple-three months maybe more. One side is going to be very happy and the other side very sad.

The purple circle shows the Tweezer Bottom and lower band violation that sent price back up to the middle band at 2037, which was achieved and price kept on running higher to 2111 (this year's top thus far). The upper band is 2154 and it has to be left in play going forward. If the central bankers keep pumping stocks and flapping dovish wings price may seek 2154.

The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic; it would be nothing to envision the S&P 500 down to 1100 or even lower in the future as a result of the rising wedge pattern. The central bankers are powerful and keep floating the stock markets sideways preventing any significant collapse.

If you look at the shadow on the right inside that purple circle, that low price print occurs with the indicators remaining weak moving lower. This hints that a solid bottom has not been placed in mid-February and price may want to come back down again until solid positive divergence forms. The SPX price and indicators are trending lower with lower lows and lower highs.

Note the heavy selling volume during December, January and February at levels not seen for five years. The last two positive months of March and April come with lower volume. The bulls are not as excited as the bears.

The ADX was above the 30 level in late 2008 and early 2009 as the financial crisis hit and markets were collapsing. March 2009 is when Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke turned his back on capitalism and free markets and instead started pumping stocks by printing money. Bernanke also stepped in to save companies. Free markets were destroyed in early 2009. The current Wall Street system is a pseudo-free market style system where only the good side of capitalism is enjoyed (stocks go up) and the necessary down side of capitalism where companies wash out and some go bankrupt (stocks go down) is never allowed to happen again.

The ADX slips under 30 as 2010 began showing that the strong downtrend in the stock market was over. Bernanke had saved the day with his obscene Keynesian easy money that only serves to make the wealthy wealthier (since they own large stock portfolios). The ADX was back above 30 in 2014 signaling that the upside move in the stock market was indeed a very strong uptrend. In early 2015, however, the ADX drops under 30 and is now down to 21 indicating that the strong uptrend in stocks the last few years is over. Long-term bulls would need the ADX to move above 30 again.

The 10-month MA is 2020 and the 12-month MA is 2031 two very important levels to watch. It is negative for the 10 to be under the 12. If price falls under the 12-mth MA at 2031, very bad things will happen to the stock market.

Something very historic and epic is about to happen in the stock market over the next couple months. The expectation would be a sharp and extended move lower, however, the central bankers are the wild card; they can pump stocks at anytime. Price is squeezing upwards over the last two months so May and into June will tell if that is the direction of the huge move, or not. Sometimes price starts to move a certain direction then reverses quickly and the true move is in the opposite direction. The volume, chart indicators, ominous rising wedge and loss of trend as per the ADX are conspiring to say down is the way ahead but the price action will simply have to be monitored here on out each day. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross H&S

The 60-minute chart is useful for VST (very short term) trading. The 200 EMA cross is a useful signal for the hours and days ahead. The SPX is above the 200 EMA at 2063 fore casting higher prices for the hours and days ahead. Note, however, that price failed at the 200 EMA last Friday but recovered with the rally into the closing bell. This drama will likely continue early this week. Monitor the 2062-2063 pivot closely as it will tell you a lot about market direction ahead. Bulls win big above 2063. Bears win big under 2062.

The red lines show a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. The head is 2111, the top for this year thus far, and we will call the neckline at 2079 since this is strong price support (reference the SPX S/R missive). The rupture at 2079 opens the door to the strong 2046-2047 support. Price bounced due to the positive divergence shown by the green lines but the MACD line and money flow had continued to show some weakness after the low in price printed which hints that price may have to come back down which may target that H&S level at 2046-2047. The year began at 2044 so price may want to back kiss this level.

Keep things simple. Watch 2062-2063 like a hawk. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 30-minute chart is useful for day traders. The 8/34 MA cross is a useful signal for the hours ahead. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA forecasting lower prices for the hours ahead. Note, however, that price is above the 8 MA which will curl the 8 MA higher for a potential positive 8/34 MA cross early this week. For now, the bears are in charge. The green lines show the positive divergence, falling wedge pattern and oversold conditions that set up the launch pad for price to rocket higher (green arrow), in this 30-minute time frame.

There is a lot of sideways slop in that chart with price stumbling through 2083-2100 for the  last 7 days. This year's top is the purple circle at 2111. Watch the 8/34 MA cross for an early indication that the bulls are fighting back, or not. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX remains on the double-whammy buy signal. The BPSPX had reversed six percentage-points off the bottom providing a market buy signal and once price moved above 70 a double-whammy buy signal is in play since early March. The peak is 79.50 one month ago. Thus, a six percentage-point reversal is 73.50 where a market sell signal would occur. Price is at 75.60. A double-whammy sell signal would occur if the 70 level fails. If market bulls keep the BPSPX above 73.50, they will remain on easy street with stocks floating along sideways to sideways higher. Trouble begins if 73.50 fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 5/2/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 5/2/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For 2016, the intraday high for the year is 2111.05 on 4/20/16 and the closing high for the year is 2102.40 on 4/20/16. The intraday low for the year is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low thus far for the year is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 was 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

The SPX has exploded higher over the last two months due to the central banker intervention especially the ECB and Federal Reserve. The highs for the year thus far printed on Wednesday, 4/20/16, eight days ago. The SPX topped at the 2110-2114 resistance area and retreated. Note how price got tangled up in the closing and intraday highs from last November and last December and did not have the energy to move up through, at this time. Pay close attention to that 2116.48 number going forward; if this is taken out, say the 2110-2116 resistance zone, then price will likely seek 2125-2135.

Negative divergence forms on the SPX daily chart creating the spankdown over the last week. The VIX remains under the 200-day MA so the bears are not a huge threat to the bulls. The SPX is attacking the important 200 EMA  on the 1-hour chart at 2063. Price failed on Friday but then recovered by the end of the day. Watch 2063 as a critical short-term market signal where bulls win for the hours and days ahead above 2063 while bears win for the hours and days ahead under 2063.

The SPX begins Monday at 2065. The bulls need to touch the 2074 handle to create a quick acceleration into the 2080’s. The bears need to push below 2052 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2053-2073 is sideways action to begin the week.

If the bulls push up through 2074-2076 then the 2079 resistance test is next and will likely give way quickly. Price will then begin tackling the 2081-2084 resistance gauntlet. This level should put up a fight. If the bulls push up through then price will seek 2089 R in a flash.

The golden cross (50-day MA up through 200-day MA) has occurred which is a bullish signal for the weeks and months ahead, however, in the near-term, price typically retreats once the golden cross occurs (as has been occurring over the last few days; this is typical behavior after a golden cross occurs). The golden cross failed in late December-early January so the SPX is giving it another go. Each day the 50-day MA remains above the 200-day MA is another victory for the bulls.

The bears need to push under the 2061-2063 gauntlet of support which includes the important 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2063. If this failure occurs, the 2057 will likely fail quickly and price will seek 2052. If last week’s lows fail, that will usher in accelerated weakness and a quick drop to 2044-2046 where the S&P 500 will determine if it remains positive on the year or turns negative. If 2044 fails, markets will likely deteriorate in quick order.

Monday is the first day of trading for May and stocks are typically buoyant to begin a new month as new money is put to work. The important Monthly Jobs Report is on Friday morning and interestingly, the new moon peaks on Friday for the month. Stocks typically trade lower through the new moon. The overnight skies are the darkest during the new moon so the military with superior night vision technology, such as the US, may conduct covert operations beginning this week say 5/3 through 5/11 when the month’s darkness is at a maximum.

The SPX remains above the 12-month MA at 2031 so bulls remain relaxed about any market selling. Real serious market trouble would not begin until the 2031 fails. For Monday, pay attention to the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2063; it is a critical pivot point that tells the stock market direction story ahead. The SPX begins the week 2 points above at 2065.

Looking at the near-term picture the strongest price support/resistance is 2110-2114, 2102-2103, 2089, 2079-2084, 2071, 2067, 2061, 2057, 2046, 2038-2040, 2032, 2017-2023, 2011, 2002, 1997, 1993 and 1985-1988.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2135 (5/20/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2134.72)
2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)
2131 (5/21/15 All-Time Closing High: 2130.82)
2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)
2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)
2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)
2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)
2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)
2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)
2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)
2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)
2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2111.05)
2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)
2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)
2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)
2102 (4/20/16 Closing High for 2016: 2102.40)
2099.89 Previous Week’s High
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075.67 (20-day MA)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2073.85 Friday HOD
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2065.30 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2065.30 May Begins Here
2062.61 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2052.28 Friday LOD
2052.28 Previous Week’s Low
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)
2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here
2036.87 (20-month MA)
2032.31 (50-day MA)
2030.65 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
2027.83 (50-week MA)
2026.29 (100-week MA)
2019.73 (10-month MA)
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2014.52 (200-day MA)
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2010.51 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
1994.77 (100-day MA)
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)
1991.82 (20-week MA)
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1942.88 (150-week MA)
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)
1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)
1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)
1828.02 (200-week MA)
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)
1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)
1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)
1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)
1794.82 (50-month MA)
1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)
1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Rising Wedge Overbot Negative Divergence Battle for the 150 MA Slope

The 150-day MA slope is a critical cyclical (weeks and months) stock market signal. The other three major indexes, SPX (S&P 500), INDU (Dow Industrials) and COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite), already display upward-sloping 150-day MA's signaling a cyclical bull market pattern ahead. The RUT is the lone dissenter and the drama now reaches a creschendo since the 150-day MA is dead flat. The last two days the moving average is 1105.46 on Thursday and then 1105.41 on Friday. The slope is still dropping losing 5 cents but the bears are running out of runway. The only way to curl the 150-day lower is for price to move under it but price remains about 25 handles above.

If the RUT 150-day MA slopes higher over the coming days, couple weeks, say over the coming month, then the stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern and bulls will celebrate. However, if the RUT 150-day MA remains flat and then rolls back over to the downside (which means price will be dropping under 1105 and under 1000 and lower), that is big trouble for the stock market as the other three indexes will likely follow and the stock market could  take a serious stumble lower.

Check the 150-day MA slope for all of your stock positions. If you are long a stock, you want the 150-day to be sloping higher to prove you have the wind at your back. If you are short that ticker, you want the 150-day MA to be sloping downward to prove that you have the wind at your back for the trade.

The red lines show an ominous rising wedge pattern, overbot stochatics, and negative divergence across all indicators. The MACD cross is negative. All these bearish signals create the spankdown (red arrow). The chart is weak hinting at lower lows ahead for price unless, of course, if the central bankers pump. The green lines show the oversold conditions, falling wedge and possie d (positive divergence) that created the mid-February low and bounced stocks higher. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

Market bulls remain relatively relaxed during the last few days with stocks drifting lower. The VIX remains under the 200-day MA at 18.56 and also under the 18.72 level which is identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm as a key bull-bear line in the sand. Rest assured, if VIX moves above 18.56-18.72, the stock market will be tumbling lower in earnest.

But the VIX could not even close above the 50-day MA resistance at 15.70 which will be the first upside target for volatility. The bulls dab their cigarette ashes in the bears face remaining unworried or concerned about the minor stock market pull back. Bulls are fine with VIX under 18.56-18.72. Bears will be creating serious market carnage if VIX moves above 18.56-18.72. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratio's and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts Near-Term Bottom Approaching

The CPCE spikes higher to 0.86 and CPC to 1.16. Just as the lows put/calls indicate complacency and lack of fear (market top) the elevated readings indicate a tinge of panic and fear developing (a market bottom approaching). The elevated numbers are where prior recent put/call highs occurred which is where stock market lows occurred, however, note that these are only 3 to 5 day rallies that then peter out. In addition, there has not been a real good whiff of fear since the mid-February bottom so perhaps this time around markets may sell off further to spike the CPC and CPCE higher and create a more firm market bottom as traders are screaming and throwing stocks overboard with reckless abandon.

China economic data is soft on the weekend so traders will listen for talk of PBOC stimulus which would likely goose global stock markets higher. If the PBOC remains quiet, markets may start the week in a bad mood instead.

The put/calls suggest that chasing the short side may not be prudent. If already short, a move lower would be a good time to exit since the put/calls would likely print higher and commit to an imminent bottom in the stock market. A wash out lower on Monday and/or Tuesday would likely create a firm bottom for stocks while a move higher in stocks to begin the week will continue the choppy erratic malaise for the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

April Monthly Publication of Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-04 is Available from Amazon; The "Panama Papers"; Central Bankers Active; Brexit Drama; Exxon Credit Downgrade; Dollar/Yen 106-Handle

The April publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-04 is available through Amazon (AMZN). The epic market action continues. The global stock markets begin the year by crashing and collapsing into 2/11/16. The prior monthly chronologies explain the huge crash from late December into mid-February. Then, as everyone was convinced that the stock market would go into free fall and sentiment was extremely negative, the bottom occurs and stocks rally from mid-February through April.

Italian, Spanish and Portuguese banks are a major problem in 2016 but the concerns temporary subside allowing for a recovery in global stocks. 
The US POTUS primary elections continue with Clinton the likely democrat nominee. Clinton may be undone by the ongoing email scandal. On the republican side, Trump and Cruz are battling for the nomination and the media is already awarding Trump the victory but they have been wrong every step of the way. The general election for the next US president is 11/8/16.

Central bankers such as the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBOC keep pumping stocks higher. The chronology explains how the central bankers are the marketThe oil rally continues in April as the US dollar index drops like a stone now at the bottom of a key long-term range. The "Panama Papers" are released exposing secret accounts of governments, corporations and the wealthy elite class. The Panama Papers information and developing scandals will continue for weeks and months.

The Brexit drama continues with President Obama stepping into the fray with unwelcome comments. The Brexit referendum vote is 6/23/16. Japan is in turmoil. The BOJ has taken rates negative and they print record negative lows. The dollar/yen pair drops to a 106-handle which reflects a stronger yen that hurts exports. Exxon loses its AAA credit rating and epic event.

The chronology describes the reactions to economic data such as the Monthly Jobs Reports in real-time. There is no other document available on the world wide web that records the action in such detail. Inflation, that the Federal Reserve has tried to create for seven years with their obscene Keynesian programs, cannot exist without wage inflation occurring so each jobs report is very important.

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists in this format where the stock, bond and currency moves are provided and explained as world events take place in real-time.

The chronology records economic history preventing revisionist tampering in future years. Many of the same asset managers telling everyone to go long the market in 2007-2008 repeated the same mantra through 2015. The stock market topped in May 2015 placing anyone that listened to television pundits over the last couple years underwater on their long trades and losing money.

Analyst and strategist quotes and words are recorded in the chronology so credit or disdain can be handed out in the future. If a multi-year top has printed, the chronology serves as the most accurate accounting of the stock market topping process ever recorded in historyThe chronology is the most reliable and easy to understand source for explaining global marketsThe chronology is very easy to read and avoids using fancy ten-dollar college words.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on this web site as well as clarifications and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

We are living through historic stock market and economic times. The daily chronology is the most accurate accounting on how the stock market tops and bottoms occur in real-time. The monthly publications are compatible with any electronic device and include an extensive Business Acronym List and Ticker Symbol List. The Acronym List is the most comprehensive business-related acronym list available on the internet. The chronology is not available in hard copy and only distributed around the world electronically.

Download this valuable resource today. Remember to support the KE Stone Series of blogs (Keystone the Scribe, The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant) through donations, the daily chronology book sales and honoring advertisers that support the original free content provided in the blogs. The blog proceeds aid charities.

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