Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant is on the long side after two days of whipsaw behavior in markets. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-03 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA & TRAN ALL-Time Highs; SPX 2,400 and INDU (DOW) 21K; Fed Hikes Key Rate 3/15/17; London Terrorist Attack; Netherlands Election; Subprime Car Loans; Westinghouse Bankruptcy; Obamacare Trumps Trumpcare; SNAP, JILL, GOOS & PUMP IPO’s

The March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and WorldEconomics 2017-03 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with more new all-time stock market highs. The one-half of the United States that own stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States struggles through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor in America is the widest in five decades.

March Cover Highlights;
SPX 2,400 AND INDU (DOW) 21K

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events take place in real-time. You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past event including Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-11), economic data releases, Fed meetings, etc...

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The April 2017-04 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 5/6/17.

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side at SPX 2367. Copper and volatility are the two parameters most greatly impacting stock market direction currently. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Out of the blue this afternoon, during the big rally, Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side at SPX 2361. Market bulls need higher banks, the XLF above 23.94, to keep the party going to the upside.

The bears can stop the upside rally in stocks dead in its tracks with either JJC under 30.43, RTH under 78.16 and/or VIX above 11.85. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart with 8/34 MA Cross and 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

Here are two of Keystone's key VST (very short term) stock market direction indicators. On the SPX 30-minute, the 8 MA remains under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. The price action is in a downward channel. The SPX is at 2342 above the 8 MA so price continues to pull this moving average higher to potentially create a positive cross above the 34 MA and prove that the bulls will receive a relief rally. The market bears must push price under the 8 MA at 2340 pronto to curl it lower away from the 34. Watch this closely.

On the SPX 60-minute, the S&P 500 is below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2352 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Note how price failed through the 200 EMA last Tuesday, a week ago, so you knew markets were in trouble. The SPX then comes up for the back kiss and on Friday was spanked down unable to overcome the 200 EMA. If a relief rally occurs, pay attention to the 2352 level since that will determine if any rally continues, or if it is squashed. For now, the bears rule the markets with  bearish signals from both charts. The first hint that the bulls are creating a market bottom and recovering would be shown with a positive 8/34 MA cross on the SPX 30-minuteThis information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:20 PM EST: At 11 AM EST, the SPX price ran above the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2352 signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. The bears were on the ropes and then, at 11:30 AM, the 8 MA crosses above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The bulls punch the bears squarely in the face. The bears fall backwards and do not know what hit them.

Friday, March 24, 2017

BPSPX Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX six percentage-point reversals and the 70% level are two key signals for the stock market. The BPSPX was on a buy signal and in December price poked above the 70 level creating a double-whammy buy signal. Note the textbook back kiss of the 70 level which proves how important this level is.

So the bulls party like its 1999 into the early March top. That red line is 79.6 so taking away 6 is 73.6. Interesting. Despite what seems to be a lot of recent selling and negativity in the stock market, the BPSPX remains on the double-whammy buy signal. The bears need to push the BPSPX under 79.6 to receive a sell signal and prove that down is the direction ahead for equities. If the BPSPX then drops through the 70 level, the stock market will be collapsing significantly lower with a double-whammy sell signal. If the BPSPX remains above 79.6, the bears got nothing and the bulls will celebrate a recovering stock market that keeps moving higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/28/17, at 8 AM EST: The BPSPX collapses to 71.80 reversing more than six percentage-points off the 79.6 top which issues a market sell signal. The market bears will create serious damage to the stock market if the BPSPX next drops under 70. Bulls simply need to prevent the BPSPX from slipping under 70.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; 200 EMA Cross

There are two key levels to watch in the VIX this week. First is the 11.92 level which was violated to the upside yesterday which sent the broad stock market another leg lower in the afternoon trading. Keybot the Quant is on the short side and the algo is identifying 11.92 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. VIX creates a positive influence on the stock market under 11.92 and a negative impact, like now, above 11.92.

The second number to watch is the 200-day MA at 13.56. As the chart shows, the bulls are happy when the VIX is under the 200-day (green circles) while the bears rule above the 200 (red circle). So you can gauge the direction and strength of the stock market with VIX 11.92 and 13.56.

Under 11.92, the bulls rule. Between 11.92 and 13.56 stocks are moving sideways with a slight downward bias. Bears rule the markets above 13.56.

In addition, a previous chart shows the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2354. This  number is extremely important. Bulls win big above SPX 2354. Bears win big below SPX 2354.

Keybot is tracking the VIX 11.92 number. In addition, bulls will recover if VIX moves below 11.92, RTH moves above 78.25, JJC above 30.40 and/or XLF above 24.04. Volatility, retail stocks, copper and financials are the main parameters dictating market direction currently. Any one of the four parameters turning bullish will stop the downward slide in the stock market. Monitor the parameters above since they tell you what you need to know. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:37 AM EST Friday Morning: With the Friday session ahead, the VIX sits at 13.12. Close, but no cigar for the bears. Bears need to poke above the 200-day MA at 13.56 to prove they have the strength to drive the stock market strongly lower. Market bulls are content with the stock market since they are keeping the VIX below 13.56.

Note Added 8:03 AM EST Tuesday Morning, 3/28/17: The VIX runs above the 200-day MA at 13.56 creating stock market selling for a couple days but then retreats back down through the 200-day MA on Monday, 3/27/17. The VIX tagged 15.11 yesterday but is now down to 12.50. The VIX at 12.50 continues to cause market negativity based on the Keybot algorithm, however, the bears need the VIX above 13.56 if they want to create serious stock market damage. The bulls will easily weather the storm if the VIX remains under 13.56.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

The SPX drops under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2354 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. The market bulls are toast if the S&P 500 remains under 2354 but the bulls will be fine if the SPX moves above 2354. Watch this number like a hawk over the next couple days.

The tight bands squeezed the move lower in this one-hour time frame. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band at 2369 and falling is on the table. The indicators want a bounce in price now but the weak and bleak MACD line wants another lower low after price bounces in this 60-minute time frame. Thus, a bounce would be expected in stocks for the first hour or two of trading on hump day, then back down to test the lows in price, then a more substantive recovery for a few hours.

The 2-hour chart shows weak and bleak chart indicators so it may take from 2 to 5 candlesticks to set up with possie d which would be 4 to 10 hours of trading time which is all of Wednesday and Thursday. Thus, a guess would be that the SPX may recover into Wednesday afternoon but then may roll back over to the downside for soggy  markets for a day or two.

The 200 EMA at 2354 is extremely important and tells you what you need to know concerning market direction. Bears win big with the SPX under 2354. Bulls win big above 2354. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Quarterly Reminder

It is time for the Quarterly Reminder;

The KE Stone family of blogs include Keybot the Quant, The Keystone Speculator and Keystone the Scribe. The blogs only continue with the support of the tens of thousands of daily international users. Blog content is posted according to the amount of support received from the hundreds of thousands of views each month. The handy donation link is provided in the right margin.

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