Sunday, August 30, 2015

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 8/31/15

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 8/31/15. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2134.72 on 5/20/15 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2130.82 on 5/21/15. The intraday low for this year is 1867.01 on 8/24/15. The closing low for this year is 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 1989, the bulls need to push above 1993 to send price to 2000+ in quick order. The bears need to push under 1975 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1976-1993 is sideways action to begin the week. S&P futures are down over -20 points as this is typed on Sunday evening in the States so the bears may want to make a run at the lower band.

An elevated VIX, and elevated CPC and CPCE put/call ratio’s forecasted the tradeable market bottom mid-week last week which occurred and stocks may want to head higher (despite the lower futures) until complacency occurs again with the CPC and CPCE printing lower.

Stocks fell like a stone last week then staged a strong recovery. For the bulls, the 1993 needs to be taken out and 1998 will occur quickly then 2002. The SPX parked itself for the weekend just above the 1985-1988 gauntlet of support. If the S&P futures remains weak overnight, 1978 is the first support test, then 1973-1975 then 1964-1965. Price will bounce or die from these levels if they are tested.

August ends today and began at 2104 so the month will print negative. Wall Street analysts have been calling for the SPX to print above 2200 and many say over 2300 this year which is now a 300 to 400 point move gain needed in the next four months. The analysts will likely begin marking their predictions lower but some may let the bullish forecast ride since Fed Chair Yellen may delay the first rate hike into 2016 which would likely rally the stock market. The Fed rate decision is Thursday, 9/17/15 approaching quickly.

New money is typically put to work to begin the new month which creates market lift. The Labor Day holiday is next Monday, 9/7/15, and stocks are typically bullish the two days in front of the three-day holiday weekend which is this Thursday and Friday. The full moon peaked on Saturday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon (although the S&P futures do not currently agree with this). Thus, seasonality is on the bull's side this week. The all-important Monthly Jobs report is Friday and will likely send stocks violently one way or the other.

Looking at the big picture the strongest S/R is 2061, 2056, 2046, 2040, 2032, 2019, 2011, 2002, 1998, 1993, 1985-1988, 1978, 1973, 1964-1965, 1951, 1942 and 1924-1928.

2135 (5/20/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2134.72)
2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)
2131 (5/21/15 All-Time Closing High: 2130.82)
2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)
2129
2128 (7/20/15 Closing High 2128.28)
2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)
2124 (6/23/15 closing High: 2124.20)
2123
2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)
2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)
2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)
2114
2110
2109
2108
2107
2105
2104
2103.84 August Begins Here
2103
2102
2100
2099
2097
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2093
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2089.86 (100-day MA)
2089
2088.51 (20-week MA)
2086
2084.81 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2084
2081
2080
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075.41 (200-day MA)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2074.53 (50-day MA)
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2072
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069
2067
2065
2064.26 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
2063
2061
2058.92 (50-week MA)
2058.90 Trading for 2015 Begins Here
2057
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2053
2052.74 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
2050
2049
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2043.25 (20-day MA)
2042.33 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2041
2040
2038
2034
2032
2030
2024
2023
2021
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2018
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1995
1993.48 Previous Week’s High
1993.48 Friday HOD
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)
1992.45 (20-month MA)
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988.87 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1983
1982
1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)
1979
1978
1976
1975.19 Friday LOD
1974
1973
1971
1970
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1965
1964
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1962.72 (100-week MA)
1962
1961
1960
1958
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1949
1947
1946
1942
1940
1937
1936
1931
1928
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1920
1917
1912
1910
1906
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1896
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1889
1886
1885
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1882
1880
1879
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1877
1874
1873
1872
1871
1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low for 2015: 1867.61)
1867.01 Previous Week’s Low
1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low for 2015: 1867.01)
1865
1862
1859
1855
1853
1852
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1846
1845
1843
1842
1841
1840
1839
1838
1837
1835
1832
1831
1828.33 (150-week MA)
1828
1827
1824
1820
1816
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)
1810
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1808
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)
1806
1803
1801
1800
1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)
1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)
1796
1793
1791
1788
1785
1783
1782
1781
1777
1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)
1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)
1770
1768
1763
1762
1759
1756
1752
1748
1747
1745
1740
1737
1733 (10/17/13 and 1018/13 Gap-Up: 1733.15-1736.72)
1730 (9/19/13 Intraday Top: 1729.86)
1726 (9/18/13 Closing Top: 1725.52)
1722
1720
1711
1710 (8/2/13 Intraday Top: 1709.67)
1709
1708.31 (200-week MA)
1708
1706
1703
1700
1698
1697
1696
1693
1692
1691
1689
1688
1687 (5/22/13 Intraday Top: 1687.18)
1686
1685
1683
1682
1680
1675
1674.30 (50-month MA)
1672
1669 (5/21/13 Closing Top: 1669.16)
1666
1664
1661
1659
1657
1652
1650
1649
1647
1646
1640

Saturday, August 29, 2015

INDU Dow Industrials 30-Minute Chart Price Travels Record-Setting Range

Last week is record-setting with the Dow traveling the most points in history. Starting late-day on 8/19/15, the Dow travels about 8000 points referencing the large point move highs and lows. This move represents the Dow moving about one-half of its entire value in only 7 days. We live in interesting times.

During the last week, in five days, the Dow moves about 6000 points, about 40% of its entire value. The Dow Industrials finish higher on the week after the turmoil but remain well under the prior week's higher prices. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Friday, August 28, 2015

AAPL Apple Daily Chart Death Cross

Apple prints a death cross chart pattern with the 50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA. Moving averages are simply a smoothing mechanism for eliminating the daily up and down gyrations in price. The 50-day MA is the average price over the last 50 days and 200 over the last 200 days. Usually, stock prices recover when the death cross occurs since there has already been multi-week weakness as is the case above with a four-day rally off the bottom. However, the death cross does forecast weaker prices in the weeks and months ahead which will occur as long as the death cross remains in place. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

UPS Weekly Chart 20/50-Week MA Cross Cyclical Bear Market H&S

Keystone's UPS 20/50-Week MA Cross signal remains in a cyclical bear market pattern. As you recall, Keystone highlighted the top in UPS late last year and as this year began. UPS receives the negative divergence smack down in January (red lines and arrow). The 20/50 MA negative cross was highlighted in May a very negative market warning signal which has come to pass with the mini-crash in the stock market. If the 20-week MA is under the 50-week MA for UPS (since it is a key global shipping bellwether), the broad stock market is in a cyclical bear pattern. If the 20-week MA is above the 50-week MA, then stocks are in a cyclical bull market pattern as had been the case for a very long multi-year period.

Price begins today at 96.63 and as long as price is under the 20 MA at 98.67 the 20 MA will be dragged lower making for happier bears. The bulls want UPS to recover as fast as possible and push the 20 MA back above the 50 MA to prove the long bull market rally can be sustained. For now, and for the last four months, the stock market remains in a cyclical bear market as per Keystone's UPS Indicator above. 

The pink lines show an H&S (head and shoulders) pattern in play with head at 109 and neckline at 93. Note how price bounced from the neck yesterday and did not fail. If 93 fails, then the downside target to satisfy the H&S would be 77. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart 150-Day MA Negative Slope Signals Cyclical Bear Market

Keystone has highlighted the 150-day MA slope several times over the last few months as the top for the markets was being sorted out. The red circles show the teases where this critical moving average was about to flatten and roll over to the downside but each time was stick-saved; until now. The blue circle shows a firm negative slope in play now which signals a cyclical bear market ahead. The question is if the bulls can stage a huge rally strong enough to turn the 150-day MA upward again, or not.

Since the 150-day MA is sloping negatively, the Russelll 2000 small caps have slipped into a cyclical bear market. The bulls must push the 150-day MA higher immediately, otherwise, the bears will gain more and more strength day after day. Since the 150 is sloping downward, the cyclical bear should show its face with lower prices for the weeks and months ahead. The long rally is over. Keep an eye on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart 150-Day MA Slope Flattening

Keystone has highlighted the 150-day MA slope several times over the last few months as the top for the markets was being sorted out. The red circles show the teases where this critical moving average was about to flatten and roll over to the downside but each time was stick-saved. Here we are again and the jury is out. If you are bearish the market, you want the slope of the 150-day MA to rollover to the downside and signal a cyclical bear market ahead. If you are bullish, you want a quick rally that will push the 150-day MA higher and maintain the ongoing cyclical bull market. The question is if the bulls can stage a huge rally strong enough to turn the 150-day MA upward again, or not. Keep an eye on it. The SPX, INDU and RUT are all in a cyclical bear market with their respective 150-day MA's currently sloping negatively. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Industrials Daily Chart 150-Day MA Negative Slope Signals Cyclical Bear Market

Keystone has highlighted the 150-day MA slope several times over the last few months as the top for the markets was being sorted out. The red circles show the teases where this critical moving average was about to flatten and roll over to the downside but each time was stick-saved; until now. The blue circle shows a firm negative slope in play now which signals a cyclical bear market ahead. The question is if the bulls can stage a huge rally strong enough to turn the 150-day MA upward again, or not.

Since the 150-day MA is sloping negatively, the Dow Industrials have slipped into a cyclical bear market. The bulls must push the 150-day MA higher immediately, otherwise, the bears will gain more and more strength day after day. Since the 150 is sloping downward, the cyclical bear should show its face with lower prices for the weeks and months ahead. The long rally is over. Keep an eye on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart 150-Day MA Negative Slope Signals Cyclical Bear Market

Keystone has highlighted the 150-day MA slope several times over the last few months as the top for the markets was being sorted out. The red circles show the teases where this critical moving average was about to flatten and roll over to the downside but each time was stick-saved; until now. The blue circle shows a firm negative slope in play now which signals a cyclical bear market ahead. The question is if the bulls can stage a huge rally strong enough to turn the 150-day MA upward again, or not.

Since the 150-day MA is sloping negatively, the S&P 500 has slipped into a cyclical bear market. The bulls must push the 150-day MA higher immediately, otherwise, the bears will gain more and more strength day after day. Since the 150 is sloping downward, the cyclical bear should show its face with lower prices for the weeks and months ahead. The long rally is over. Keep an eye on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

It has been a long time since we had to explore the lower end of this chart. Long-time readers will remember that the 70% level is key as well as the six percentage-point reversals for the BPSPX. The chart has been in a double-whammy sell signal mode for the last three months since the BPSPX reversed six percentage-points off the top and fell under the 70 level. The double-whammy sell signal remains in place through the waterfall drop this week.

The 30% level is important at the bottom of the chart just as the 70% is at the top of the chart. With BPSPX dropping under 30, that indicates steady bearishness in markets and the selling should continue. The BPSPX bottoms in this near term at 22. A six percentage-point reversal would be 28. Thus, the bulls will receive verification that the stock market rally is strong and sustainable if BPSPX rises above 28. If price then rises above 30, a double-whammy buy signal will be in play and the stock market will be marching steadily higher. Market bears simply need to keep the BPSPX under 28 and the selling in equities will continue. The BPSPX is a slightly lagging signal and serves more as a verification of the current trend. For now, the bears remain in control. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:32 AM:  Whoa! The BPSPX explodes higher to 27.40. The bulls are a hair away from receiving a market buy signal. Bears must hold the line here and stop any further gains in the BPSPX. Watch the BPSPX closely today and tomorrow.

Note Added on Friday, 8/28/15, at 10:20 AM EST: Yesterday the BPSPX exploded higher to 30.80 so the bears are told to sit down and the bulls receive a double-whammy buy signal for the stock market going forward. Bears will need to push the BPSPX under 30 to stall the upside. The bulls are driving the bus now with the BPSPX indicator.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart

The stock market prints a strong recovery rally yesterday. The central bankers are powerful. Fed's Dudley says "there is no compelling reason to raise rates in September" so stocks catch a bid. A dead cat bounce was needed and the previous 2-hour charts show the bottoming process over the last couple days. The daily chart shows two low price prints the first on Monday the intraday low shown by the long candlestick shadow and Tuesday where price closed at the low shown by the thick red candle (since price moved down all day). The white candle shows the big recovery yesterday up to 1941.

As price prints a matching or lower low (green bar), the only indicator that is positively diverged is stochastics, as well as oversold, so this helps create the bounce in stocks. The other indicators, however, are weak and bleak preferring to see lower lows in price in the days ahead or week or two ahead. Price gapped down daily during the mini-crash event (purple circles) and those gaps may need revisited.


1921 is the -10% correction level off the May all-time top at 2135 so the S&P 500 is no longer in correction territory. Keystone highlighted the high CPC and CPCE put/call ratios that called for a bottom which occurred. The elevated VIX above 50 also showed fear and panic and is always a good time to nibble on longs. Now what?


The central bankers save the day as usual with Dudley sent out to  pump the stock market and he succeeded with his dovish words. Fed Chair Yellen will bring the tablets down from on high on 9/17/15 with the rate decision only three weeks away. That day is a pivot point where stocks are going to move violently higher or violently lower. A full moon occurs tomorrow and stocks are typically bullish, about 65% of the time, moving through the full moon.


New money is typically put to work at the start of a month and September begins on Tuesday. Stocks tend to be buoyant from the last day of the month through the first three or four days of the new month which is next week. August is a down month and when a month is weak like this month it tends to finish up for the last couple days. So the dominoes are lining up for the bulls.


The Labor Day holiday is Monday, 9/7/15, when markets will be closed, and stocks are typically up the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend (Thursday and Friday next week); more bull-friendly stuff. The Jobs Report is on Friday, 9/4/15, which may influence market direction. It appears that the bulls have the wind at their backs now into Labor Day. Bears would be well served to try and create weakness today if they can since stocks may begin lifting again into the weekend and next week. The bears may growl from 9/8/15, as traders return from holiday, into the Fed decision on 9.17/15. Of course this is all seasonality and historical market mumbo-jumbo, and with high volatility, each day can only be taken one step at a time.


The gaps serve as upside targets. Last week's low is 1971 which is a resistance target where a bounce or die decision would occur. There is strong price resistance and support at 1985-1991, 1978, 1973, 1964, 1951, 1942, 1928 and 1924. Price begins at 1940.51. The expectation is for some further buoyancy in stock prices but in the days ahead at some point price should come back down to the lows again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.


Note Added 9:52 AM: The SPX launches higher and tags the 1971 level (last week's low) out of the gate and fills the first gap. Watch the 1971-1973 resistance, if the bulls push up through, then 1978 is next. Bears need to hold the 1971-1973 resistance. Price is at 1966 using the 1964 as support.