Monday, December 22, 2014

SPX Daily Chart Second Fed and Global Central Banker-Induced Rally for Q4 2015 Verifying Central Banker Collusion

The second central banker-induced rally occurs in Q4 2015. In three days, the SPX is up from 1973 to an intraday high at 2078, an astounding 105 points, +5.3%. The central bankers are powerful. Fed Chair Yellen creates the rally by keeping the considerable time phrase in the FOMC statement. The dovishness creates a buying frenzy in stocks since the Fed does not plan to raise rates for six months or more. The ECB chimes in promising more stimulus so the central banker collusion creates a three-day upside orgy in stocks. The Dow is up from 17068 to 17874, 806 points, +4.7%, in only three days. The COMPQ is up from 4557 to 4782, 225 points, +4.9% and the RUT is up from 1135 to 1199, 64 points, +5.6%, for the three-day historic Fed-induced Yellen Rally. All Hail the global central bankers; the modern day money changers!

The SPX all-time intraday high is 2079.47 on 12/5/14 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2075.37 on 12/5/14The bulls move the SPX into the all-time high range last week but could not create a new all-time intraday high and could not create a new all-time closing high only a whisker away. Watch the pink lines to see if new all-time highs are achieved in Monday trading, or not.

The rally started on Wednesday, 12/17/14, due to Fed Chair Yellen's dovish words. It sure was not due to the start of Hanukkah. Traders do not expect the first rate hike until H2 2015 when before the meeting an earlier rate hike was on the table. The mid-October rally was created starting with Fed's Bullard pumping the easy money talk. This rally is started with the Queen of the Doves herself; Yellen. The big upside candlestick on 12/17/14 is the Yellen pump. Note the red lines that show the indicators weak and bleak with the lower price low that printed on 12/16/14. This clearly shows that the bounce had nothing to do with technicals, or fundamentals for that matter, and the bounce was purely due to the Fed intervention. The stochastics were oversold so that did help create part of the bounce so this point can be conceded. For a proper technical set-up, the price print on 12/17/14 needs to make a lower low with the indicators positively diverged; that did not happen. Thus, chalk it up to another Fed pump and some day this all has to be retraced since it is simply continual propping up of the stock market.

On Thursday, 12/18/14, the Swiss National Bank cut its deposit rate. The ECB coordinates with the Fed and announces that the members are in consensus that more stimulus will be provided to begin the New Year. Bingo. More central banker collusion and stock market pumping creating the strong 12/18/14 rally. Shamefully, the very same day, the Fed announces plans to cut back on banking regulations relaxing the new Volcker rules that were planned for two years. The Fed and banksters have no shame; they frolic in sinful union on a bed of money each evening. That provides a further late-day push higher that extends into Friday trading.

On Friday, 12/19/14, the BOJ colludes with the Fed and does not rock the boat at the conclusion of their two-day policy meeting. The BOJ says full steam ahead with the ongoing stimulus. Banzai! Comically, everyone is so bullish no one wants to call attention to the fact that Japan's 2% inflation target appears to be a hopeless goal; just like no one wanted to tell the Emperor that he was not wearing any clothes in the famous Hans Christian Andersen classic. For the icing on the cake, uber Fed dove Kocherlakota grabs a microphone and says deflation is the worry and more stimulus is needed. Bingo, the stock market upside orgy continues. Fed's Lacker says the Fed should not be in a rush to raise rates. The hits keep on coming. Each Fed sound bite causes long traders to buy stocks trained like Pavlov's dog. There is no reason to sugar-coat the markets. The global central banker collusion is obvious.

Since the Fed and other central bankers continue to pump the stock market, long traders rape the upside for all its worth but very few have long-term allegiance to the bloated equities markets. The retail trader is showing up right on time, ready to hold the bag, running into stocks like AAPL and MSFT that are creating much of the recent highs (a limited number of stocks not a good sign for sustainable upside) as well as dividend and utility stocks buying regardless of price. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

XEU Weekly Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence

Everyone and his brother is shorting the euro. The cab driver this morning told Keystone that he is all-in short the euro. The ECB is embracing Keynesianism, much to Germany's dismay, so traders are fully on the euro short side or the boat each telling the other how smart they are to be leveraged short the euro; they are about to be slapped in the short term as the boat tips over into the ocean.

The weekly chart shows indicators that are universally positively diverged (green lines) with oversold conditions and a falling wedge pattern (bullish). Keep an eye on the MACD line that threatens to keep the euro low for a couple more weeks. The positive divergence, oversold conditions and falling wedge are a powerful set-up for bounce in the euro. A short-covering rally may create a substantive bounce. The pink box shows how the trend lower in the euro remains strong on the weekly basis. Thus, after the positive divergence on the daily and weekly charts influence a basing and recovery higher in the euro for days, a couple-few weeks or perhaps well into Q1 2015, the trend lower for the euro should reexert itself. Obviously it would depend on when the ECB plans to goose the stock markets higher with easy money. The daily and weekly euro charts, since they indicate a sideways to sideways recovery move higher, hint that the ECB may not provide the easy money as quickly as thought and that they promised in January. The ECB meeting is late January so an easy projection to make for the euro is that it will recover higher over the next month then will be slapped down late January when ECB President Draghi announces that the printing presses will print euro's 24/7.


The projection is for a bounce in the euro. If you are short, it is likely prudent to exit unless you plan to hold the euro short well into summer time. The long side appears attractive for the euro now into late January. The daily and weekly euro charts want to see the euro recover higher over the short term. This analysis is in sync with the prior dollar chart that is ready to pull back and take a rest (the euro and US dollar index move inverse to each other). Bring up prior charts for further study by typing the ticker symbol or key word into the search box in the right margin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

XEU Euro Daily Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence Price Extended to Downside

Everyone and his brother is shorting the euro. The cab driver this morning told Keystone that he is all-in short the euro. The ECB is embracing Keynesianism, much to Germany's dismay, so traders are fully on the euro short side or the boat each telling the other how smart they are to be leveraged short the euro; they are about to be slapped as the boat tips over into the ocean.

The daily chart shows indicators that are universally positively diverged (green lines) with oversold conditions and a falling wedge pattern (bullish). This set-up is a powerful upward force so the euro is on the launch pad ready to rocket higher with a bounce that will shock the large consensus short. A short-covering rally may create a substantive bounce. The pink boxes show how the trend lower for the euro was very strong from August to October but that strong trend lower has petered out. There is no strong trend lower anymore in the daily time frame. Price is extended to the downside under the moving averages so a mean reversion higher is needed.


The projection is for a bounce in the euro. If you are short, it is likely prudent to exit unless you plan to hold the euro short well into summer time. The long side appears attractive for the euro in this daily time frame for nimble and speculative traders. The weekly chart is set up with possie d as well so up is the next short term direction for the euro. The weekly chart is in a strong trend lower so after the euro bounces say in the coming days or week or three, or month or two, it should resume the downside on the weekly basis. It will all depend on when the ECB decides to pump the stock markets and bludgeon the euro.


When the ECB announces more stimulus either officially at an ECB meeting or in continual lip-service news bites, the euro will weaken. The charts, however, want to see the euro recover higher over the short term. This analysis is in sync with the prior dollar chart that is ready to pull back and take a rest (the euro and US dollar index move inverse to each other). Bring up prior charts for further study by typing the ticker symbol or key word into the search box in the right margin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 12/22/14

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 12/22/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2079.47 on 12/5/14 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2075.37 on 12/5/14. The bulls move the SPX into the all-time high range last week but could not create a new all-time intraday high and could not create a new all-time closing high only a whisker away.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 2071, the bulls need to touch the 2078 handle and a strong upside acceleration will occur well into the 2080’s. The bears need to push the SPX under 2061 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2062-2077 is sideways action to begin the week.

Traders quickly turn complacent after Fed Chair Yellen provided more dovish talk last week to boost the stock market. Long traders universally expect the bullish December seasonality to kick in with a strong finish to the end of the year; the boat is fully loaded on the bull side. The previous CPC put/call ratio chart, however, verifies the complacency in place which typically identifies a near-term top. The SPX moved through an astonishing 106-handle range last week from 1972-2078.

Price should back kiss the 20-day MA at 2049 and rising. The 2040 is extremely strong support/resistance, now support, and price blew up through on the Yellen goose. It would be prudent for 2040 to be back tested as well as the December starting number at 2068. Price will also need to back test the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 2034. This creates a landing zone at 2034-2040 for an important bounce or die decision.

Monday will begin with high drama as the bulls are a stone’s throw away from new all-time historic highs. The 2073, 2075-2076, 2078 and 2079 levels all offer strong resistance. On the down side, the 2065-2068 level is strong support, then 2061 then 2057.

2079 (12/5/14 All-Time Intraday High: 2079.47) (12/5/14 Intraday High for 2014: 2079.47)
2077.85 Previous Week’s High
2077.85 Friday HOD
2077
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075 (12/5/14 All-Time Closing High: 2075.37) (12/5/14 Closing High for 2014: 2075.37)
2074
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2070.65 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2070
2069
2067.56 December Begins Here
2067
2065
2061.03 Friday LOD
2060
2057
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2054
2052
2051
2049
2048.65 (20-day MA)
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2041
2040
2039
2038
2035
2034
2033.70 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2032
2030
2024
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2018
2016
2014
2012
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2009
2007.59 (50-day MA)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2004
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997.97 (20-week MA)
1997
1995
1993
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1990.17 (100-day MA)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1983
1982
1979
1978
1977.35 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
1976
1973
1972.56 Previous Week’s Low
1970.27 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
1970
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1965
1964
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1962
1961
1960
1958
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1950.02 (200-day MA)
1949
1947
1945.39 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
1942
1940
1937
1936
1931
1930.06 (50-week MA)
1928
1925
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1920
1917
1912
1910
1906
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1894
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1889
1886
1885
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1882
1880
1879
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1877
1874
1873
1872
1871
1868
1867
1865
1862
1859
1855
1853
1852
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1846
1845
1843
1842
1841
1840
1839
1838

1837

WTIC Oil Weekly Chart Oversold Positive Divergence Developing

Oil continues its weakness. We have been waiting for the weekly chart to set up with positive divergence but it continues to not fully cooperate. The green lines show oversold conditions and positive divergence with stochastics, RSI and money flow so a bounce is needed, however, the MACD line remains weak and bleak so price will want to come back down on the weekly basis after any upside move for a week or two. Thus, anyone playing the long oil side right now must remain very nimble and not get too greedy on the upward bounce. Oil will likely travel sideways through 54-65 early in 2015. When the MACD line and histogram turn possie d, probably in mid to late January, that will tell you a more sustainable upside move is on tap ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

DVY Dividend ETF Weekly Chart Dividend Stock Bubble Price Extended Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

One of the surprises this year is the resilience of the dividend stock bubble. But when rich Uncle Fed is there to goose the markets it is not at all surprising. Look at the thrusts higher in October and then over the last week both purely due to central banker collusion promising higher stock markets. The long traders rush in to rape the upside with the Fed's blessing. Investors think that no matter what type of market pull back occurs they will be safe in dividend stocks. Instead they will probably serve as cannon fodder.

Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion (pink dots). The retail investors running into divvy stocks for perceived safety are likely going to receive their heads on a platter in 2015. If you enjoyed nice profits over the last few months, why not simply cash-out and sit on the sidelines until 2015 is well underway where you can reassess the situation. Remember, a 3 or 4% divvy does not appear as attractive if you quickly lose -10% or -20% of the capital value. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Developing

Fed Chair Yellen's stock market goosing last week has bullish traders and investors running into blue chip dividend stocks with both hands buying regardless of price. Comically, each trader thinks they are smarter than the other figuring that hiding out in utilities is a win-win providing safety during any broad market down turn at the same time providing a divvy. They are likely running into a buzzsaw and the safety and defensive position they desire only amounts to a fig leaf of coverage.

Utilities print another all-time record high last week and over the last year are up from 480 to 618, nearly +30%!! The indicators are setting up with negative divergence (red lines) but the MACD line and money flow want to see another high over the next couple weeks before the top is placed. When utes top out and roll over that is not a good sign for the broad market which will move down coincidentally or within a couple months time following the utilities lower. Utes should top out moving into and in January.

Keystone opened a position in SDP which is a double inverse shorting the utes but it is early. The position will be added to as time moves along. SDP is very thinly traded so you may want to explore shorting individual utility names instead. Simply assess the negative divergence on the charts to identify the most attractive set-ups. DUK and EXC are short candidates moving forward as the New Year begins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD US Dollar Index 8-Year High Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Negative Divergence Developing

The USD has been forming negative divergence over the last few weeks but the projection was for higher highs on a weekly basis since all the indicators are not yet fully cooperating to provide a pull back. All indicators are neggie d (red lines) now except for the MACD line (green line) that remains long and strong. So a pull back is needed but the US dollar index will come back up to satisfy the MACD line which should firmly lock in the neggie d on the next high price print and allow a more substantive pullback ahead. Thus, one to three more candlesticks are needed for the MACD to turn neggie d which is one to three weeks time.

So playing the long side is not attractive for the dollar right now nor is the short side especially considering the parabolic move and upside momentum. In early January, however, a nimble short trader may give the short side a try once the MACD goes neggie d. Over the six-year time frame the MACD, stochastics and ADX are negatively diverged (red lines) hinting that lots more sideways is ahead with a slight upward bias on a multi-month and yearly basis. Thus, the dollar may trade soft in January-February but then recover and float upwards again into summer time. The key phrase is 'lots of sideways'.

The dollar prints at 8-year highs as shown by the green circles. Note that price is exploding higher similar to the 2008 action leading into that commodity collapse and market collapse later in that year. As soon as the Fed saved the day with the Keynesian QE1 in March 2009 the dollar collapses and gold sky-rocketed. Once money-printing begins the currency value drops as the supply of dollars increases drastically. The blue lines show a sideways symmetrical triangle with vertical sides of 16 to 18 bucks. Using 80 as the break-out, this opens the door to a dollar at 96-98 in the years ahead. In early 2015, however, the dollar will likely favor the 85-90 area before resuming the upside.

The blue circle shows the false breakout to the downside in 2011. This typically happens with a sideways triangle pattern. About one-half to two-thirds of the way through the triangle pattern price will typically break out one way or the other but this is a false breakout and once price returns inside the triangle the projection is that the true breakout will occur in the opposite direction which is what occurred. The pink box shows the ADX at 49 well above the 25 level showing the upside move to be a strong trend going forward. Mixing it all together and sprinkling magic dust on the analysis, the projection is for the dollar to move sideways to sideways higher for perhaps a couple years forward favoring the current level at 85-90 in early 2015 (due to the neggie d) then floating higher late 2015 and beyond. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC CBOE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

The near-term stock market tops are easy enough to identify (red circles) as rampant complacency and lack of fear continues in the stock market. As the famous Alfred E. Neuman says, "What? Me Worry?" The central bankers control the markets so after Fed Chair Yellen provides more dovish remarks with the first rate hike not on tap until summer 2015 and later, long traders jump on the bullish side again raping the upside for all its worth. Why not? The Fed hands obscene stock market gains to those that own stocks. The wealthy become wealthier. Let the disadvantaged eat cake. It's there own fault for not having the money to own stocks. This is the new, present-day modern America.

When the CPC prints in the 0.7's and lower, the complacency is out of hand, traders are buying any stock with a heartbeat and not even bothering to look at fundamentals or technicals. There is no reason to consider such old school approaches to buying stocks since the Fed is goosing the stock market higher to enrich the elite class as well as set up their own retirement plan. Former Fed Chair Bernanke receives $250K for a token lunch engagement these days and Yellen is all to eager to do the bidding of the banks since she too will be rewarded with a luxurious retirement package for supporting the wealthy class with her policies.

When the CPC prints above 1.20, a whiff of fear and panic begins to enter markets and that is the time to begin nibbling on long positions since a bottom is near for stocks. The 1.20+ level was barely violated as Yellen goosed the markets last Wednesday. Note how the stock market tops (red circles) honor the 0.7's guideline but the market bottoms do not firmly honor the 1.20+ guideline. This behavior verifies how the Federal Reserve creates the stock market bottoms and recovery moves especially when they fear the markets are ready to tumble down the rabbit hole. Also of interest, note the move on Thursday, in a few hours time, traders went from a tinge of fear developing (above 1.20) to immediately turning fearless and complacent (in the 0.7's) in a heartbeat. All Hail the central bankers! Long traders kneel in front of a statue of Yellen each morning praising the female Keynesian God.

The ECB chimed in (global central bankers are colluding to provide coordinated stimulus to pump stock markets higher) promising more stimulus further goosing the stock market higher. The Fed provides more easy money heroin by relaxing the rules and regulations against banks to further boost stocks last Friday. These rules were required to help guard against another 2008-2009 financial crisis but no one cares anymore; the greed is rampant on Wall Street. The Fed goosing is blatant and sowing the seeds for a sad America ahead.

Bullish traders are spiking the eggnog dancing with lampshades on their heads expecting the happy December seasonality and Fed support to carry through into 2015. There is no reason for fear or worry. The elite class that own stocks are carrying Yellen on their shoulders along the halls of the Eccles Building celebrating a season of stock market joy. However, what does the chart tell you about the direction ahead? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX indicator remains on a double whammy market buy signal. When the BPSPX reverses six percentage-points to the downside a market sell signal occurs and under 70% is a double whammy sell signal. When a six percentage-point reversal to the upside occurs a market buy signal is issued and if the BPSPX moves above 70% a double whammy buy signal occurs which remains in place.

The bears had a victory in place on a silver platter but were smacked in the teeth by Fed Chair Yellen. The recent top is at 76.40 so six percentage-points lower is 70.40 almost exactly at the 70 level. Thus, as of Wednesday, 12/17/14, before Yellen flapped her dovish wings, the markets were on the verge, only a hair away, from a double whammy market sell signal. The Fed is not stupid; they have a room full of technicians warning of the pending doom. Thus, Yellen announces that the 'considerable time' statement remains noted in the FOMC statement (the expectation was that the statement would be removed) so the first rate hike is not coming for six months or more in H2 2015 which creates the thrust higher in stocks. The central bankers are the market. The rally move is an exact repeat of the mid-October bounce. Stocks are not turning higher due to technicals and fundamentals, quite the contrary, instead markets are goosed by the Fed. Yellen, the Keynesian femme fatale, strikes again.

The BPSPX  bounces from 70-ish stopping the double whammy sell signal from occurring. Bulls celebrate all weekend long drinking Fed wine and injecting ECB crack cocaine into their veins ready to buy more stocks in the week ahead. The bulls remain on a double whammy buy signal. The bears need to push under 70% to create a new round of market mayhem. Keep watching the BPSPX 70% level into 2015 as a key market indicator. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.