Thursday, October 17, 2019
SOX Semiconductors Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; SOX Prints All-Time Record High This Week
Investors and traders keep believing in the chips as evidenced by the dip-buyers buying each pullback in the semi's. The stochastics are overbot but the RSI is not, although it was overbot at the April peak. Chips will be in trouble if the SOX falls below that red trend line. The red rising wedge vibe is bearish. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators. The MACD has a little bit of near-term upside juice so price may jog, one week down, the next week up, to form the top at that time.
The SOX prints an all-time record high on Tuesday, 10/15/19, at 1629.53 and new all-time record closing high at 1625.69. SOX is at 1607 above 16 hundo.
The ADX shows that the big upside rally in 2017 into early 2018 was a very strong trend higher (purple box) but that petered out in March 2018. The chips rolled over to the downside in 2018 and the wheels fell off the cart at the end of last year into early this year. That was when, on 1/3/19, as Keystone had described at the time, the central banks colluded and orchestrated the huge rally and upside joy in 2019. Stocks were falling down the rabbit hole and ready to collapse and take out the Christmas Eve low. If that would have happened in early January, and it was happening, the stock market could have went into a crash. Fed Chairman Powell got religion and the global central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, PBOC, etc...) started announcing many stimulus plans at 2 to 3-day intervals through January and February that pumps equities higher to today's levels.
The ADX was just starting to show that the downside move into January of this year was a very strong trend but boom, the central bankers closed the door and goosed equities higher always protecting the wealthy elite class that own large stock portfolios. Despite the humongous run higher this year in the SOX, the ADX does not consider the rallya strong trend.
The Aroon green line is pegged at the maximum 1 hundo with nowhere to go but down. The Aroon red line was recently at zero with nowhere to go but up and that goes for its low 20 value now. Look for the potential negative Aroon cross going forward. The upper band at 1652 has to be respected but the chart is in weak shape with the neggie d showing that the fuel has run out.
Semiconductor companies such as NVDA goosed the chip indexes higher this week but they are likely on borrowed time. The SOX, XSD and SMH chip indexes charts are similar and rhyme with the analysis above. Look at SMH as a short now. Keystone is not in the chips right now but will be looking for potential short entries into SMH and XSD going forward. SSG is a 2x short semi ETF and a potential long play going forward although it is thinly traded. As would be expected, SSG is printing a low, in oblivion as chips print record highs. The SSG weekly chart is set up with oversold conditions, a falling wedge and positive divergence across all indicators (a mirror image of above) so that looks like a nice little long trade to play the chips short.
If you are a young person buying chip stocks, bragging at the office water cooler, thinking that you cannot go wrong, well, you are. It would be wiser to exit the chip longs stage right and/or short them going forward, otherwise you will look foolish at the office water cooler come the holidays. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Tight Bands
Stocks float higher this week in keeping with the bullish seasonality factors previously mentioned. The news bites are moving markets to and fro. Stocks are susceptible to comments from King Donny, Dictator Xi, Prince Powell, Count Draghi, King Kuroda and a few other politico's and central bankers that control the world's markets.
The SPX all-time record high is 3028 on 7/26/19 and the all-time record closing high is 3026 on 7/26/19. The S&P 500 printed 3021 on 9/12/19 and 3022 on 9/19/19, both dates are palindromes, so this 3021-3022 resistance level is key. The SPX is at 2998 after topping out at 3008 today.
The SPX trends higher narrowing itself into the rising red wedge, a very bearish pattern. The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a move lower in price but the RSI did not reach overbot levels; this may still be on tap. The red Iines show universal negative divergence so price is out of gas to the upside although the money flow has a sliver of green in the near term. This hints that price may poke around here or a bit higher for 2 to 4 hours but a top would be expected now.
Remember, the low CPCE put/call ratio remains in play which is looking for a potential top this week or at any hour any time forward. The CPC slips to 0.92 yesterday and today's EOD print is not yet available. The SPX price violated the upper band so the middle band at 2986 and rising remains on the table and also the lower band at 2962, and rising, which is in the neighborhood of the critical bull-bear short-term indicator the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2961. Maybe it is destiny for this 2961-ish support level to occur and be tested where an important bounce or die judgement would be made. The pink bands are coming in tight so a big move may occur and if the rising wedge kicks in, it would be down.
The chart suggests negativity ahead with a near-term top printing today, or tomorrow. Price is starting to slip out of that rising wedge so keep an eye on that. Of course happy talk from Showman Donny, the communists, the Brexiteers and/or the central banks can change the market picture quickly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
One of Keystone's favorite short-term market signals is the 200 EMA cross on the SPX 60-minute chart. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute is 2952 with the S&P 500 at 2966 so the stock market is short-term bullish. Bears got nothing unless they push the SPX below 2952 which will likely usher in a serious drop. Bulls are singing songs and carryin' on as long as the S&P 500 remains above 2952.
Note that price is on an island now above 2964 so a potential island reversal pattern may occur if price drops back down through the gap from 2964 to 2950. Otherwise, price may simply retreat and fill that gap. For now, the bulls are on easy street and if price punches up through the blue resistance line at 2990, it is off to the races higher.
The full moon peaked on Sunday afternoon so it was difficult for the bears to flex their muscles yesterday. Stocks are typically buoyant through the full moon each month. During the Monday session, volatility trends steadily lower. The Fed maintains its jackboots on the throat of the VIX to make sure stocks do not fall that far in the session. VIX has a 14-handle making for happy bulls and if a 13-handle prints, the bulls will be in Heaven. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is long and tracking VIX 15.85 as the key bull-bear line in the sand so bears need 15.85-plus to create market mayhem. The VIX is at 14.27 with S&P futures up +11.
Friday is OpEx so a Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high during OpEx week. The professional traders are jumping the gun anxious to play a quickie long over the next day. So the bulls have the wind at their backs today if they choose to use it. The Empire State data is another read on manufacturing which is released this morning. Tomorrow is Retail Sales, Business Inventories and Beige Book. Thursday is Housing Starts, Philly Fed and Industrial Production. The Housing Starts are key especially since Keystone has called the start of the housing recession on 7/17/19. Retail Sales are key since the consumer is carrying the economy. The bank earnings this week are important.
Trading volume will be robust at the Friday morning open and at the closing bell due to OpEx. Interestingly, Keystone's obscure Eclipse Indicator, that identifies certain time periods where significant stock market selloffs may begin, signals that 10/11/19, give or take a couple weeks, and 12/7/19, give or take a couple weeks, are prime candidates. 10/11/19 was last Friday so we are directly in an eclipse window right now. If a significant stock market selloff does not begin over the next 8 trading days, equities are likely okay until the late-November to early-and-mid-December eclipse window. So if the bears want to growl, they had better get their act together quick over the coming days.
A short time ago China changed the goal posts on the potential trade deal. The communists want the tariffs lifted before agreeing to buy $50 billion in ag products. Xi is stuffing Trump. Foreign leaders are following the President Trump playbook; make agreements and smile for the cameras and then the next day change the deal. Futures drop on the news but then recover on the happy JPM earnings.
Showman Donny throws around the $50 billion number but China does not acknowledge this figure. The number is odd since the peak of Chinese ag imports was $25 billion in 2017 and lower ever since. Trump's braggadocio number is twice this amount. Donny knows how to string the crowd along since he does not tell you the time frame. He allows you to think it is one year but in reality it is likely 2 or 3 years and barely gets back to the import levels from 3 years ago. This is the way the game is played. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/17/19, at 4:45 PM EST: The SPX rallies today on happy Brexit and trade talk. The SPX prints above 3K to 3008 but closes at 2998. Traders are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again." Retail Sales disappoint. No one cares since they are too busy buying stocks. Housing Starts disappoint. Who cares? No time to pay attention to data since there are stocks to chase higher. Remember the low CPCE print and the CPC is down to 0.92 a new one-month low. The bulls are singing songs and carryin' on since the Fed and other central banks, and especially King Donny, will goose the stock market higher into the presidential election next year. Investors and traders are relaxed, complacent and not worried about stocks ever pulling back to any great extent, like Alfred E. Neuman, they all ask, "What? Me Worry?"
Monday, October 14, 2019
YC3MO 3-Month to 10-Year and YC2YR 2-Year to 10-Year Yield Curves Daily Charts; Yield Curve Inversions End After 5 Months
Well, look at that. The yield curve inversions are over. The 2-10 spread, YC2YR, was only inverted briefly in August but the big news has been the sustained inversion of the 3-month to 10-year yield spread, YC3MO. This yield curve inverted in May (5 months ago) and finally un-inverts. The hook pattern at the bottom and un-inversion is what typically ushers in the recession. The Fed is committed to new QE bond-buying, even though the dolts do not cal lit quantitative easing, which anchors or sends the front-end yield lower (buying Treasury notes sends prices higher and yields lower) helping to create the steepening action. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Return to Complacency
On Friday, 10/11/19, President Trump announced the largest and best trade deal in the history of mankind that shot equities to the moon. The luster came off the US-China trade deal rose quickly, however, since there is nothing on paper; it is only a handshake with a communist. Soybean Donny says Dictator Xi plans to buy more ag products. It's all the same old stuff.
Comically, China's state-run media does not tout a big deal instead saying there is more work to be done. Trump always said he would not agree to anything except a big deal and it must address IP (intellectual property) theft and provide an enforcement mechanism. Apparently, none of that matters anymore; a skinny little deal still yet to be negotiated is good enough. King Donny simply wants to say he has a trade deal before his upcoming re-election bid in a year. China simply wants more food products because it has 1.4 billion mouths to feed. Food inflation, leading to riots and violence, has toppled many Chinese dynasties throughout history.
The S&P 500 exploded 32 points higher, +1.1%, to 2970 on the happy US-China trade deal news on Friday. The SPX gave back 23 points of upside into the closing bell once traders realized the deal is not written on paper. Monday morning futures are down -8 with the VIX above 16. International investors continue to sort out the potential US-China trade deal wondering if it is smoke and mirrors or if it has merit.
During the euphoric price action on Friday, traders were staggering around, drunk off the trade deal wine and Fed and ECB champagne, buying stocks with reckless abandon. Complacency and fearlessness quickly returned to the market. Investors and traders are not worried about stocks ever going down since the trade deal is getting solved and the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers plan on printing money forever. The CPCE collapses to 0.51.
The red circles show extreme complacency in the stock market. Of course, when the boat is fully loaded on the bull side, and the party is in full swing, that is when the market top occurs. It can take a day or few for the top to print but it is near as the 0.51 indicates. The CPC has not come all the way down as yet so maybe that is on tap for mid-week. Keep an eye on the CPC.
The past red circle tops resulted in the following point losses in the SPX; 200, 7, 40, 37, 70 and 120. Thus, the smallest pullback was only a handful of points but the largest drop was 2 hundo. The average pullback is about 80 points which would test the October lows. Throwing out the highest and lowest data points and averaging the remaining four, targets a drop of 67 SPX points.
The SPX is showing several potential sideways symmetrical triangle patterns (blue). Typically, a false break-out, or break-down, occurs about one-half to two-thirds of the way through the triangle, and you can see price was a break-out higher in September. Price then typically returns inside the triangle and will collapse out the other side. This did not occur but in fairness, just as price was ready to drop below the lower triangle trend line, King Donny ran to a microphone and said a US-China trade deal is on the way.
It was hilarious that the president pumped the stock market directly at 9:30 AM EST on Thursday morning just as the opening bell rang. What a joke it all is. Go Donny Go! It will be fascinating to see if the stock market holds up for the next 12 months into the election, or not. Trump has connected himself to the economy and stock market so his fortunes likely rise and fall with stocks, and he knows it. His wealthy-class donors funding his election campaign want ever-rising stock prices so he has to perform the bidding of his masters. Such is the crony capitalism system.
On Friday, the SPX once again breaks out to the upside on the trade news but is becoming soggy again since the trade deal appears not as great as the showman-in-chief touted. Stock market bulls need to break up through that top blue trend line to signal the all-clear for sustainable upside. Bears need the SPX to return to the inside of the triangle and collapse out the bottom.
The Keybot the Quant algorithm is long and tracking the VIX 16.00-ish level closely. The critical VIX 200-day MA is at 16.16. The VIX 16.00-16.16 level tells you the market direction story today. Bulls win big below 16 while bears win big above 16.16. The VIX is at 16.17 at 8:19 AM EST on Monday morning about one hour before the opening bell. S&P futures are -8. There you go, the battle is already ongoing. VIX 16.00-16.16 tells you everything you need to know; it is the bull-bear line in the sand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Keybot the Quant algorithm flips to the bull side yesterday afternoon at SPX 2928. Chips and retail stocks carried the day higher. Banks, the key NYA index and volatility also play a role in stock market direction in the coming days. More information is found at Keybot's site:
Keybot the Quant
Keybot the Quant
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; M Top; Stock Market Pushed To and Fro by US-China Trade War Tweets and Federal Reserve Shenanigans
The SPX is chopping around all over the creation on the US-China trade war drama and comments from the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers. Fed Chairman Powell is a skilled magician announcing more QE (quantitative easing) yesterday but at the same time telling everyone it is not QE; now you see it now you don't, nothing up my sleeves. What a sick financial world it is with markets now trading minute by minute on tweets and confusing statements from eggheads. This must be how crony capitalism ends.
The S&P 500 was perched on support at the 50-day MA at 2938 and had to make a bounce or die decision. It died so the 50 becomes resistance. Price fell through the 100-day MA at 2928 and then the 150-day MA at 2908 these levels now serving as resistance. The 200-day MA support at 2846 has not been touched since the late-May early-June bottom.
The pink 150-day MA is important since the SPX began the summer rally from this moving average, then retested it in August, it held, price bounces again in September, and now the S&P 500 continues to battle at the 150. The slope of the 150 tells you if a ticker is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market pattern. The 150 is sloping slightly higher so the cyclical bull market remains in play. Bulls are okay as long as the 150 keeps sloping higher even if it is barely sloping higher. Bears win for the weeks and months ahead if the 150 flattens and starts sloping downwards. Note the M-Top, or double-top, pattern in the chart above.
The NYA fell through its 40-week MA a critical market signal that ushers in a cyclical bear market for stocks. This metric requires close monitoring in the days and couple weeks ahead.
Theh SPX stabbed down through the lower standard deviation band 5 days ago, and popped, but now slumps back below again. The middle band and 20-day MA at 2970, and dropping, is on the table. The 20-week MA resistance is 2935. The 10-month MA is at 2874; this is an important level which is an initial signal that the stock market is about to seriously fall apart. If 2874 fails, "Danger Will Robinson. Danger." The 12-month MA at 2833 is the cliff edge. If 2833 fails, stocks may go into free fall; a crash scenario would be on the table.
The VIX is at 20.28 far above the critical bull-bear line at the 200-day MA at 16.38 so the bears are in firm control of the stock market. The VIX prints a 20-handle but is currently at 19.23 at 6:20 AM EST Wednesday morning, 10/9/19. S&P futures are up +22 and were actually a few points higher a short time ago. China says they are open to a partial trade deal despite this week's circus of events and tit-for-tat actions. S&P futures catapult higher immediately. Markets are a joke.
Tariffs are set to escalate next Tuesday. The footnote in the China announcement is that they do not want to see a further escalation in tariffs. Thus, a deal appears contingent on President Trump not increasing the tariffs in six days. Do you think that will happen? China says they will buy more agricultural products. Pause for laughter. They have been saying this for the last two years of the trade war and their offers are only to return to the pre-trade war levels. Nonetheless, the president is quick to tout the purchases of ag products to try and keep the farmers, and his base of supporters, on his side. "Soybean Donny" wants reelected next November (the US presidential election is only 55 weeks away). Decades of crony capitalism results in corrupt demopublican and republocrat politicians; two sides of the same corrupt coin.
Today is Yom Kippur so it appears the ole Wall Street adage, "Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur," is working out so far. The big push higher in futures occurs right on cue. The bond market is closed on Monday. Today is the big 10-year auction that will require attention. Also the JOLTS Report and the FOMC Minutes this afternoon. Tomorrow is the CPI and 30-year bond auction and Friday is the important Consumer Sentiment. Next week is OpEx and stocks are typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high so seasonality favors the bulls in the coming days and next week into Thursday-ish which interesting is the uber important Housing Starts data (one wonders if a bombshell drops on 10/17/19 blowing a hole in the housing market?).
Stock market bears need utilities to begin trending lower if they want to create sick markets into year-end. The utes have gone parabolic and are only pulling back this week with the broad market. If utes remain buoyant, the stock market will recover and the bulls may hold the bears at bay into year-end. If the utilities begin trending lower here forward, it will be a very serious stock market warning signal that we are beginning to slip down the rabbit hole into serious ugliness.
The SPX begins at 2893. The chart indicators are bumping sideways, not showing their hand, due to the conflicting news bites that occur every couple hours. If a 22-point pop is received for the cash index, that would place the SPX at 2915 after the opening bell. Watch the 150-day MA at 2908 like a hawk. It would be very negative for stocks if it held as resistance. If the bulls can punch up through, the 100-day MA at 2928 will serve as overhead resistance. Bears need to push the SPX below 2874 since this will begin an accelerated move lower in equities. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/10/19, at 7:56 AM EST: The SPX ran higher yesterday to tap on the 100-day MA at 2928-2929 and was spanked down. The LOD was at the 150-day MA at 2907-2908 and price bounced. Thus, bulls win big above 2929 while bears win big below 2907 and everything in between is noise from the ongoing US-China trade talks and global central banker comments. S&P futures are down -7 with the VIX at 19.52.
Sunday, October 6, 2019
The stock market remains on a wild roller coaster ride. Market participants crossed into the fear and panic zone last week so you knew a relief rally was on the come. The milktoast jobs report provided that boost. The Fed will continue cutting rates so stocks took off higher like a moon shot smoking all the shorts. Equities ran higher as the short-covering rally gathered steam.
The complacency and lack of fear was highlighted as September began and a top was expected which occurred. The little red rectangles are useful for calling tops while the little green boxes are useful in calling bottoms.
As a rule of thumb for the CPC, the stock market euphoria is too out of control and optimistic below 0.80 so you want to go short. When the CPC rises above 1.20, traders are in panic jumping out of windows so that is when you want to go long. The crowd is always wrong.
For the CPCE put/call ratio, the stock market joy and bullishness is out of control below 0.55 so you want to go short. Conversely, the market negativity is rampant above 0.80 so it is a good time to go long.
Well, the question always is, "Now what, Einstein?" Both the May and June selloffs were month-long affairs and note that the first breach into panic and fear was not the last during these retreats in stocks. The put/calls came back up again before the firm bottom was placed; and everyone likes firm bottoms.
The SPX price drop through the 50-day MA and subsequent recovery back above is the same exact behavior as the prior two fractals shown in the blue squares. In May and August, price then reversed again losing the 50 again and then placing a matching or lower low in price in a few days or week or two's time. Will this trend repeat a third time?
Those 21-day MA's for the put/call's are sloping higher and not yet leveled off where you would be more comfortable calling a firm bottom. Thus, there would be more expectation for selling ahead and perhaps a lower low at 2880 or lower in a few days time.
Of course, the Fed can talk dovishly at anytime which will pump equities higher and keep rewarding the wealthy class in America. Or, President Trump may tout happy times with the US-China trade negotiations which will also pump stocks higher.
If there is some weakness in stocks, it may occur out of the gate Monday and early and mid-week. Monday, 10/14/19, is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed but the stock market will be open. Stocks may be buoyant on Thursday and Friday this week with the holiday on tap (even though the stock market will not be closed on Monday). The full moon is next Sunday and stocks are typically positive through the full moon each month. OpEx is next week so the move in stocks from Tuesday, 10/15/19, into Wednesday is typically higher. Thus, the seasonality is on the bull side say from Thursday into the following week. The bears will need extra negativity to overcome the bullish seasonal positivity mid-month.
Boiling down all this mumbo-jumbo and simply looking at the S&P 500 chart above, watch SPX 2942. The bulls win above and the bears win below. The SPX is at 2952 with the bulls singing songs and throwing confetti. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/8/19, at 5:59 AM EST: The SPX ends the Monday session at 2939 sitting on the 50-day MA support. Of course it does. The S&P 500 has to make a bounce or die decision from the 50 today.
NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Week MA Dictates Whether the Stock Market is in a Cyclical Bull or Bear
One of Keystone's key cyclical stock market signals (think weeks and months) is the NYA 40-week MA cross. This battle is important since it dictates whether the stock market will be a cyclical bull, or bear, into year-end and perhaps well beyond. Price stabbed down through the 40-week MA at 12713 last week but the bulls fortified positions and pushed the NYA back above to save the day. The NYA is at 12832, above the 40-week MA at 12713, so the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern.
All Hades will break loose if the NYA loses the 12713 level; stocks will be falling down the rabbit hole and the phone's will begin ringing off the hook at the financial managers' offices. If the NYA remains above the 40-week, the bulls will be happy and joyous into the holiday season looking forward to nothing but prosperity and wealth ahead in 2020.
Price has teased the 40-week many times over the last couple years but the bulls, supported by the Federal Reserve and other global central banks, and President Trump, are quick to save the day and pump equities higher with more money-printing or happy trade talk. Which side will be the victor after this battle at the 40 ends? Right now, the bulls are happy about heading into year-end, but of course, this can change in a heartbeat this week. Simply watch the NYA 40-week MA cross for the answer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/8/19, at 5:55 AM EST: The NYA drops to 12768 in the Monday trade finishing at 12778. The 40-week MA is at 12743. The stage is set for a Tuesday battle. The bears were only 15 points from victory yesterday; can they push the NYSE Comp lower today and stab down through the 40 creating market angst for weeks and months to come, or, will the bulls maintain the cyclical bull market through the end of the year?
The stock market drama continues with a new battle on tap at the 200-day MA at 16.46, a critical bull-bear line in the sand. The VIX is at 17.04 creating market angst. In addition, the Keybot the Quant algorithm is tracking 15.97, call it 16, as a critical bull-bear line in the sand. Thus, taking a broken blue crayon from the Crayola box, a thick line is drawn across the 16.0-16.5 level.
Stock market bears win big-time if the VIX tests 16.50-ish and bounces higher; stocks will be falling like rocks. Market bulls will rejoice if the VIX falls below 16.00-ish since equities will be catapulting higher with green screens everywhere. Between 16.0 and 16.5 is noise. Who will win? PPI is Tuesday, 10-Year Auction and FOMC Minutes are Wednesday, CPI is Thursday and Sentiment on Friday. So inflation, or lack thereof, will be a big theme in the week ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.