Sunday, September 17, 2017


The S&P 500 prints 2500 for the first time in history during the last minute of trading on Friday 9/15/17. The SPX all-time closing high and all-time record high are 2500.23. Price closed at the high. All Hail the Federal Reserve and other central bankers! Kneel and Praise them! Sound the Seven trumpets! Worship the modern-day money-changers in charge of the monetary Temple!

The global central bankers continue colluding to keep the stock markets pumped higher to reward the wealthy. The power of the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) is truly astounding as well as others such as the BOE in the UK and PBOC in China. The central bankers are the market. If you do not understand this fact after 8-1/2 years of out-of-control Keynesian you are simply not paying attention.

The unholy near-nine years of easy money accommodation by the Fed and its partners in crime such as the ECB and BOJ, that only serve to make the wealthy more filthy rich, is so obscene that even Caligula would blush.

The world is awash in liquidity. The dollars, euros and yen have go somewhere so all asset classes including stocks, bonds, art, collectibles, real estate and antique cars, are bid wildly higher week after week. The party continues as long as global market participants maintain their full faith and confidence in the central bankers. When that credibility takes a hit, the end game begins. For now, the band is playing "Happy Days Are Here Again."

Since the SPX 2500 milestone occurs in the final minute before a weekend there were not many traders donning  "SPX 2,500" hats or celebrating. There are two schools of thought with S&P 2,500. The market bulls say the lack of euphoria over the milestone indicates that stocks have a long way to go on the upside. Bulls say that stock market rallies only end when the public is all-in and the euphoria and giddiness is at record levels and we are nowhere near that now. Therefore, the party continues indefinitely.

The market bears say the lack of enthusiasm for the SPX 2500 print is because it occurred right before the weekend when traders are focused on sipping cold beverages. Bears say the lack of enthusiasm for SPX 2500 also proves how it is a given that market participants expect higher record stock prices. Dow 23K, 24K and SPX 2600 are expected. The central bankers have pumped equities higher for nearly nine years and the belief is that no matter what happens domestically or internationally, it all can be fixed by the Fed and other central bankers printing money. This behavior is a case for complacency.

The VIX fell to 10.00 the tiniest hair from a 9-handle on Friday (one penny) proving the fearlessness in markets (but low volatility can remain for a long time). The CPC and CPCE put/calls continue printing low numbers, although the data is becoming more erratic, indicating complacency. The NYMO remains elevated consistent at where tops occur in the near-term.

When market participants are not concerned about major milestones such as SPX 2500 and Dow 22K printing, that hints more of complacency and a belief that markets will never go down since central bankers always step in to save the day. Are the bulls correct or the bears going forward? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The sideways choppy slop continues with the Keybot the Quant algorithm flipping long again at SPX 2484 dancing between the long and short side every few days for the last couple months. Bulls need higher banks and SPX 2500 is on the way. Bears must send banks lower, send retail stocks lower and pump volatility higher. The SPX prints a new all-time record closing high yesterday at 2488.11. The all-time high is 2490.87 from August. The NYA (NYSE Composite) also printed a record closing high yesterday; ditto utilities. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

The battle continues at the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2455 a key short-term market signal. The SPX is at 2452 below the 200 EMA so the stock market bears are in charge for the hours and days ahead.  Market bulls need to push the SPX above 2455 as soon as possible, otherwise, the bears will begin to press the stock market far lower.

Market bears can cheer as long as the SPX remains under 2455.13. Bulls rule the markets above 2455.13. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/6/17, Before the Opening Bell: The SPX ends Tuesday at 2458 with the 200 EMA at 2455.14. The bulls win. This battle continues and 2455 tells you who is the winner going forward. Stocks may be in a holding pattern until King Draghi announces the direction of the euro tomorrow morning which will impact all other asset classes.

Note Added Sunday, 9/17/17: The SPX bounced in the chart above exactly at that red circle on the right-hand side. The bulls held the 200 EMA support and used it a a springboard launching the S&P 500 to a new all-time record high above 2500 for the first time in history. The SPX is at 2500.23 and the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is at 2468 and rising. The 200 EMA remains a key pivot point for stocks for short-term trading going forward; it will be a big deal when it fails.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The bears come to play on Tuesday jamming volatility higher. The central banker's jack boots temporarily slip off the neck of Uncle Vix. The VIX catapults more than +30% today from 10 to 13.20. Volatility pops so stocks drop. As you know, market bears win above the VIX 200-day MA, now at 11.63, while bulls win below the 200.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is short and identifies the VIX 10.92 level as the key bull-bear line in the sand. New highs in the stock market will not occur unless the VIX falls under 10.92. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 9/17/17: The SPX is above 2500 rallying as the VIX sinks like a stone on Friday, 9/15/17, dropping to 10.00 only one single penny from a 9-handle. Market bears have zero hope with volatility remaining at multi-decade lows. Bulls rule the stock market with a VIX at 9 and 10.

August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, APPL, MSFT and BSE (India) Record Highs; Hurricane Harvey Slams Texas Oil Refineries; Total Solar Eclipse; Bitcoin 5000; North Korea Turmoil; Trump Threatens NoKo with Fire and Fury; Barcelona Terrorism; USD 91-Handle; Euro 1.20; Jackson Hole; US-China Trade War Simmers; Trump Threatens Government Shutdown; Amazon Food Wars Begin

The August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

August Cover Highlights;

The August chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs. India’s BSE Sensex ran above 32K last month into early this month. The Dow Industrials print above 22K in early August another milestone.

The US dollar index and euro print big moves; these currency baskets move inverse to each other. The dollar is sinking so the euro is bouncing. The euro moves briefly above 1.20 with the USD printing lower with a 91-handle. Both the euro and dollar are testing their 200-week MA’s.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with over 15 key personnel changes occurring after only seven months an unprecedented revolving door. Advisors Stephen Bannon and Sebastian Gorka are shown the door in August. The Russia and other investigations continue. President Trump is threatening North Korea with fire and fury unless tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un ceases the missile and nuclear programs. Trump also threatens Congress with a government shutdown unless they include funding for the southern border wall.

US and China keep poking each other in the eye with long sticks as a trade war simmers. Barcelona is rocked by Islamic terrorism. Bitcoin tags 5000 as September begins. Money from China, Japan, India and Turkey chase the digital currency higher. The Jackson Hole Economic Forum takes place in Wyoming but did not live up to its ype. Amazon begins food price wars that rock the grocers and food makers. The epic market action continues as the global central bankers collude daily to maintain elevated stock prices.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The September 2017-09 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 9/30/17.

The Keystone Speculator stock, bond and currency (Forex) charts and technical analysis, Keybot the Quant algorithm status and Keystone the Scribe daily market chronology only continue if supported by the 100’s of thousands of international viewers each month. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The erratic stock market action continues. Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the short side at SPX 2469 after the opening bell. Watch RTH 79.92, XLF 24.67 and VIX 10.92. As usual, more information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Friday, September 1, 2017

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; C&H; Upper Band Violation; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Teasing All-Time Highs

The bulls are beating the bears up this week. The pre-holiday positive seasonality is slapping the bears around since mid-week. Volatility drops and banks run higher crushing all the bear's hopes and dreams. Keybot the Quant is long and says higher retail stocks will help bulls while lower banks and higher volatility will help bears. Note that the VIX fell through Keybot's line in the sand at 11.14 and stocks have been running higher ever since.

On the SPX 2-hour chart, the tight pink standard deviation bands squeeze the radical move higher. Price runs directly up the outer band without taking a rest. The middle band at 2456, and rising, is on the table. The blue lines show a C&H  (cup and handle) pattern with head at 2420 and breakout line at 2453 so a move above 2453 would target 2486 (2453+33). Using the whole numbers 2420 and 2450 would target 2480 so the target zone is the 2480-2486 to satisfy the C&H. You can also call it a W pattern if you like (light blue line) although it has a funky right side. This pattern has the same upside target.

The SPX is at 2479 only 2 points from a new all-time closing high at 2480.91 from 8/7/17 (purple circle). The all-time intraday high is 2490.87 from 8/8/17 (brown circle).

As price makes higher highs in this 2-hour time frame, the stochastics are overbot and cooked, rammed into the ceiling and neggie d. The histogram and ROC are in negative divergence. The MACD line and RSI, however, are long and strong wanting more higher highs in price after any pullbacks in this 2-hour time frame. The RSI is overbot.

Price should drop for a candlestick, then come back up again for a higher high in price, at that time, the RSI will likely roll over and be in neggie d. Then price will then go down again but then come back up for another higher high when the MACD line will likely go neggie d that will be the top in this near term. Thus, potentially a couple jog moves, down, up, down, up, then down for a move lower. 5 candlesticks is 10 hours of trading time on the chart so that takes things into Tuesday lunch time. So stocks may remain buoyant into the holiday weekend and then sort the top out next week when trading resumes. US market are closed on Monday for Labor Day.

If price sneaks out those two more highs as it tops and rolls over you can see where the SPX would venture into that 2480-2486 target zone to satisfy the C&H. Watch to see if the SPX prints a new all-time closing high today. That will be happy news for the headline writers this weekend. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:54 PM EST: The SPX is at 2479.73 with a HOD at 2479.81. The bulls are pushing to try and print a record closing high today now only one point away. Can they do it?

Note Added 11:07 AM EST on Tuesday, 9/5/17: US stocks are trading again today after the Labor Day holiday yesterday. The SPX is selling off to begin the holiday-shortened week down 11 points at 2465. Price topped at 2481 close enough for government work to satisfy the C&H discussed above. The MACD was not exactly convincing as price topped out (did not display neggie d) in this 2-hour time frame so do not be surprised at some more buoyancy in the S&P 500. Price leaves a gap behind that is big enough to drive a truck through at 2470-2477. The full moon peaks overnight tonight and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon. A Bradley turn occurs on Thursday so markets are in a window where an inflection point may occur anytime now through next Wednesday. Stocks may stagger sideways, like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night, into the Thursday ECB policy meeting where Draghi will dictate the direction of the euro, and subsequently, the US dollar and stocks. Thursday morning will be big so traders may take it easy until then. The all-time closing high at 2480.91 from 8/7/17 (purple circle) and all-time intraday high at 2490.87 from 8/8/17 (brown circle) remain the records. The SPX teased higher on Friday but could not close at a new record high.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the bull side at SPX 2452 as the whipsaw action continues. Markets are very erratic and unstable. Do not be surprised if the model flips back to the short side tomorrow. The banks run the show. Watch XLF 24.67 on Thursday. More information is found at Keybot's site,

Keybot the Quant

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

VIX Volatilty Daily Chart; Battle at the 200-Day MA Bull-Bear Line in the Sand

The VIX 200-day MA is a key short-term bull-bear stock market signal. The VIX 200-day MA is at 11.68. The VIX ends today at, wait for it, wait a little bit longer, a bit longer, 11.70 only two pennies on the bear side. VIX was bobbing back and forth on each side of 11.68 during the settlement after the closing bell. So the battle lines are drawn for hump day. Market bulls win big if the VIX drops under 11.68. Market bears will growl to victory if VIX remains above 11.68.

Keybot the Quant algo is short and identifies VIX 11.15 (blue bar) as a key bull-bear line in the sand. Market bulls will be sending stocks big-time higher if VIX drops under 11.15.

But first thing is first. Watch to see if the bulls have the juice on Wednesday to send VIX below the 11.68 level, or not. Volatility will tell you a lot about market direction ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross; Channels

The choppy sideways slop continues. The S&P 500 has basically been moving through 2440-2450 for the last week (brown channel). Sideways whipsaw markets chew up bulls and bears alike. The downward-sloping red channel is in play. Price is trying to break up through the upper trend line so this is a critical time. The indicators are not tipping their hand heading sideways.

The stochastics push into bull territory above 50% and are long and strong over the last couple hours, ditto money flow, so some further buoyancy in price would be expected in this one hour time frame.

The market bears are fine as long as the SPX does not move above the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2452. Bulls will rule the stock market with every day forward a big party if the SPX moves above 2452. As explained on the weekend, there is a cluster of moving averages and price resistance at 2451-2454 so this resistance gauntlet is key.

20-day MA 2454
Price resistance 2454
Price resistance 2453
200 EMA on 60-minute 2452
50-day MA 2451

Keybot the Quant is short and tracking SOX 1075.07, XLF 24.65 and VIX 11.18 as these three stooges are most impacting market direction currently. Let's see. SOX is at 1083 creating bullishness in the stock market. XLF is 24.53 creating bearishness in the market. VIX is at 11.89 creating bearishness. One of these three will flinch and tell you the direction ahead for stocks.

Also watch the VIX 200-day MA at 11.68. VIX is at 11.89 so this is a feather in the bear's cap. Market bulls got nothing unless they move VIX below 11.68 and ultimately under 11.18. The beat goes on. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:56 PM EST:  The VIX finishes at, wait for it, wait a little bit longer for it, 11.70. The battle at the VIX 200-day MA will be key tomorrow. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.