Friday, September 18, 2020

USD US Dollar Daily Chart; Inverted H&S Patterns



Here is the US dollar daily chart, USD or DXY, that has been of interest due to the bottoming behavior over the last month. The dollar weekly chart receives a pop due to positive divergence, as does the daily above, and a multi-week dollar rally is expected. The MACD line on the weekly is flat and very extended to the downside; it is an iffy call on possie d, but the benefit of the doubt would be given to the dollar bulls and the multi-week rally is about to take off higher. If the dollar retreats over the coming days that will only serve to set up the multi-week rally.

The February-March crash was exacerbated by the big pop and rally in the dollar in March. Considering the uber complacency in the stock market verified by the low CPC and CPCE put/calls, it is easy to see the perfect storm about to begin where the dollar pops, and then really pops as the mountain of shorts panic, and the stock market tanks. There are interesting days ahead probably historic days.

The SPX is moving through the channel created by the 20-day MA resistance at 3428 and the 50-day MA support at 3340. The S&P 500 begins the Friday session at 3357 which is 17 points above support and 71 points from resistance. Interestingly, the dollar is also moving through the same channel. Dixie is bound by the 50-day MA resistance at 93.73 and the  20-day MA support at 92.97. The SPX and USD charts tell the tale.

If the dollar continues breaking out higher, with the euro drifting lower, and dixie pops above the 50-day MA at 93.73, it will probably be a moon shot higher and the SPX will collapse through its support at the 50-day. This outcome is consistent with the uber low put/calls that signal a significant top right now. It can easily be February-March redux. The put/call ratios are rising now but there still needs to be panic and fear to signal a tradeable bottom.

If the dollar rolls over, as the euro climbs higher, and falls through that 20-day MA support at 92.97, exactly where it is parked on the chart, that would favor the bullish outcome and the SPX will run up through the 20-day MA resistance and higher. Either way you slice it, the dollar charts are set up, or days away from being set up, for a multi-week rally which will likely tank the stock market.

The inverted head and shoulders (H&S) patterns are highlighted. The blue inverted H&S has a head at 92.10 and neck line at 93.70 so a break above 93.70 would target 95.30 an area of price resistance from July. The purple inverted H&S pattern has a head at 92.10 and neckline at 93.40 so a break above 93.40 would target 94.70 an area of price resistance from July. DXY is currently trading at 92.80 falling below the 20-day MA support favoring bulls. Euro 1.185. S&P futures are up +3. VIX 26.21. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Thursday, September 17, 2020

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross


The Keystone speculator's SPX 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Indicator signals a short-term bull versus bear market. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is 3387. Price is at 3357 predicting bearishness ahead. That is 30 points below in the bear camp. Bulls will need 30 points to move back above the 200 EMA.

That whipsaw behavior back and forth across the 200 during September is unprecedented. Usually the cross occurs more cleanly. The bulls and bears are both getting cut up in a knife fight in the alley. The bears last created a negative cross in late June but the bulls quickly reversed that negativity with the Fed pumping stocks into the blow-off top.

SPX 3387 is the rudder steering the stock market ship. Every hour price is below 3387 is another nail in the bull coffin. If the S&P 500 pops above 3387, the bulls will be off to the races higher with equities finishing the week with a happy ending. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keybot the Quant algorithm flips to the bull camp this afternoon at SPX 3429. The S&P 500 then fell like a stone. Commodities, volatility and utilities are controlling stock market direction currently. Bulls need UTIL above 827. Bears need VIX above 27.54 and GTX below 1720. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top is At Hand



Moral hazard has arrived. The Federal Reserve, and other global central banks, have been printing money for over 11 years and traders and investors are now officially Pavlov's dog. Everyone always expects the Fed to pump the stock market higher forever so folks want to buy every dip with enthusiasm. The fearlessness is off the charts for the last four months. This behavior is unprecedented.

The low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios signal a significant stock market top occurring. If stocks rally after Powell, the charts above tell you that you should be selling the rips not buying the dips. A nice tradeable bottom does not occur until the prices move above the green lines. You want to buy when people are running for their lives screaming bloody murder. Simply prepare a long list but wait for the panic and fear to arrive before you begin nibbling. 


Everybody and his brother are committed to the stock market and do not believe it will ever pull back in any meaningful way just like when American economist Irving Fisher said the stock market was at a permanently-high plateau, in 1929. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.


Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/17/20, at 2:36 AM EST: Fed Chairman Powell promises ZIRP through 2023. The central bankers are sick. Powell says bond purchases will remain at current levels. Stocks pop on the dovishness but then roll over into the closing bell. The SPX HOD is 3428.92 and the 20-day MA is 3428.74. Price comes up for a test of this key resistance and is spanked back down. The SPX finishes Wednesday down 16 points, -0.5%, to 3385. S&P futures have been deteriorating the last couple hours from -33 down to -65 currently about a -2% drop for the S&P 500 cash index if the futures remain negative. The Federal Reserve's grand 11 plus year Keynesian financial experiment is beginning to unravel. Treasury yields tick a bit higher since some bond traders likely expected more bond purchases. Higher rates hurt utilities. If the dollar rises, especially in a short squeeze, as described here over the last month with the dollar charts bottoming, commodities will be whacked.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Price Bouncing Through the 20 and 50-Day MA Channel; Markets Await Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Press Conference Today


Fed day is at hand. The stock market typically moves higher 80% of the time the day or two going into the Fed meeting and this expected activity occurs again this time around. S&P futures are up +13 with VIX at 25.35 this Wednesday morning 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell. Markets await Pope Powell to return from the mountain on high and tell global traders how to trade this afternoon. The Fed decision is released at 2 PM EST with the press conference beginning at 2:30 PM EST. The central bankers are the market.

Interestingly, the new moon peaks this month at 7 AM EST tomorrow (Thursday) morning and stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon. This is the darkest time of the month so the militaries with advanced night vision technology will carry out covert raids. If a military event was going to occur before the US presidential election, it would likely occur over the coming days to take advantage of the pitch dark.

The SPX continues to battle through the channel created by the 20-day MA resistance at 3429 and the 50-day MA support at 3331. Price is at 3401 to begin the day so 28 points from the upper rail and a breakout and 70 points from the lower rail and a breakdown. This afternoon, Pope Powell will appear in a toga robe with a garland on his head a la Julius Caesar of ancient Rome. The sycophant of the elite privileged class will extend his right arm outward and turn his thumb up or down to dictate which way the SPX breaks.

If Powell is cooing dovishly promising quadruple double triple infinity money-printing to continue as long as time exists, that will send stocks soaring higher. If Powell is perceived as a tinge hawkish, stocks will drop like rocks. With stocks remaining at such elevated levels, they may drop, no matter what Powell and his friends say.

That's a lot of spaghetti in the chart above. Ready for some mumbo-jumbo? The red lines show the negative divergence that created the spankdown in price. Interestingly, when that blow-off top day occurred, the RSI popped so technically that has a bit of fuel remaining to help re-elevate price. Price dumps about 250 points during the selloff and begins bouncing through the 20-day and 50-day channel. The SPX backtested the 20-day MA as would be expected and has now tested this 3425-3429 level three times over the last five days. If Powell provides upside fuel, the SPX will pop up through the 20 and target that price resistance at 3450. Above that and the bulls will try to run stocks back up to the record highs. Powell holds the key.

If stocks fail after Powell, the blue two-leg bear flag pattern may play out. The first leg is 250 points south. If price drops say from the 20-day MA resistance at 3429, the target is 3179, call it the 3180-3200 area right where strong price support is at. When the SPX placed the low three days ago, the bounce occurs due to the positive divergence with the RSI and stochastics as well as the oversold stoch's. The MACD, histogram and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting to see price come down for a lower low.

The golden cross is shown with the gold circle where the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA a bullish signal. Usually a pullback occurs after the golden cross and then price will continue higher as long as the golden cross remains. The SPX simply took off higher after the golden cross and never looked back. The world is awash in liquidity due to the global central banks printing money like madmen. That easy money is used to buy stocks, bonds, real estate, vineyards, art, antique cars, etc..., sending all asset classes into bubble territory.

The pink box shows that the rally higher is a strong trend higher in late August but this peters out a week ago during the selloff. The Aroon negative cross occurs. The purple lines show key price support levels going forward. The purple circles show juicy gaps that will need filled at some point forward. The brown boxes show the massive volume days all to the sell side. Even that volume candlestick at the end of July was a selling event all day until the last hour of trading that turned things around to paint it a buy candle. Price will want to come back down to test that price at 3270-3290 which is also price support and a gap-fill.

Keybot the Quant remains short during the big rally off the low three days ago but is champing at the bit to go long. Keybot likely wants to see SPX 3419 and higher to flip long. That represents about a +17 pop in the S&P futures and look at that. S&P futures are up +17 with the VIX at 25.31. The bulls know the number they need (3419+) and are counting on Powell to deliver the dovish talk and pump stocks higher. Bulls would be better off to see price slowly travel higher. If the gap-up open occurs, the quant will likely delay the flip to the long side for about 90 minutes even if the 3419 level is taken out.

Watch the 20-day and 50-day channel since the breakout, or breakdown, respectively, tells you the path ahead. It is all in Pope Powell's Holy hands. The central bankers are modern-day Money God's. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/17/20, at 2:36 AM EST: Fed Chairman Powell promises ZIRP through 2023. The central bankers are sick. Powell says bond purchases will remain at current levels. Stocks pop on the dovishness but then roll over into the closing bell. The SPX HOD is 3428.92 and the 20-day MA is 3428.74Price comes up for a test of this key resistance and is spanked back down. The SPX finishes Wednesday down 16 points, -0.5%, to 3385. S&P futures have been deteriorating the last couple hours from -33 down to -65 currently about a -2% drop for the S&P 500 cash index if the futures remain negative. The Federal Reserve's grand 11 plus year Keynesian financial experiment is beginning to unravel. Treasury yields tick a bit higher since some bond traders likely expected more bond purchases. Higher rates hurt utilities. If the dollar rises, especially in a short squeeze, as described here over the last month with the dollar charts bottoming, commodities will be whacked. Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side yesterday but with the dicey markets perhaps the robot will whipsaw back to the short side.

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

COPPER Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation


Copper has been on a tear higher after the Federal Reserve and other global central banks promised to print money forever. The central bankers are the market. Moral hazard is now sitting on the living room sofa. Copper has been moving sideways through 2.00-3.30 for many years. Price jumps from the bottom rail of that channel to the top in only 6 months.

Dr Copper leads the way in a healthy economy, however, with the multi-decade central banker intervention continuing unabated, even accelerating, traders are likely buying copper anticipating a global recovery due to the central banker largess. What a twisted mess the sick central banks have created making the wealthy class filthy rich while screwing the huddled masses. This will only lead to trouble down the road.

Copper is topping out on the weekly basis but not quite yet. The daily chart is in negative divergence and that will likely coordinate with the neggie d shown on the weekly chart above to create a pullback for a few days or week or two, but price would be expected to recover again due to the long and strong MACD line. When price comes back up after the mini-pullback, say in 1 to 3 weeks time, the MACD line will go neggie d and the top will be in. Copper wil then begin a multi-week slide lower.

Copper keeps making new highs but the ADX is rolling over so the trend is losing steam. The big rally was never really a strong trend with the ADX barely able to get above 30. That tells you the rally has lots more to do with central banker money-printing. Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 2.75, and rising, is on the table. The Aroon green line is overbot and red line oversold so both would be expected to move towards the center which would be bearish going forward.

Keystone is not currently trading copper or its derivatives long or short but will look for opportunities to short the sector in a couple weeks when the MACD goes neggie d. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, September 13, 2020

PTON Peloton Daily and Weekly Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedges; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended



Where's Peloton girl? There's a new commercial on television trying to lure the holiday shoppers but I do not see Peloton girl from last year; instead it is a bunch of new buff people showing what you will look like if you buy this $4K stationary bicycle and pay $50 or more per month. The new ad shows a little yoga mat, perhaps they toss that in after they empty your wallet of all its money. WMT has stationary bicycles for a $100 bucks. After three months when the exercise kick is over, you may as well hang your clothes on a 100 dollar clothes hanger instead of a 4K one.

Peloton reported earings the other night and the analysts and long holders were dancing in the street. PTON was up +12% or +13% in the afterhours. But Friday it ends down -4%. Ouch. Traders were taking the money and exiting stage right. That candlestick is an outside reversal which potends trouble ahead. Tpically, however, price will rally a bit more and then down the road a bit is where the price will remain soggy for a while. There are delays in Peloton shipments continuing; that's not good. After you wait a couple months or more for the machine arrive, you feel like telling them to take it back. The new ad may be trying to line up sales where the deliveries can be made with plenty of time before Christmas and other end of year holidays.

Peloton reports a big jump in users but that likely came from other people in the family starting to use the same machine. People were bored during the lockdown. The jury is out as to whether Peloton will develop into a cult-like stock like Tesla. Time will tell. The charts are much the same as a month ago when they were posted. The top is not in until that MACD line goes neggie d on the weekly and that has not occurred as yet.

On the daily chart, the red lines show all the negative divergence in play; that is why price received the Friday spanking. The purple arrows show the tight band squeeze, which was higher, and price violates the upper band so the middle band at 76 and lower band at 58 are on the table. The overbot conditions also create negativity. The ADX is trying to show a strong trend higher again but it can go either way. The rally was deemed a strong trend in May, June, July but it petered out in early August. The ADX is lower than prior tops but price is higher which is more negative divergence (bad for price). The Aroon green line is overbot and red line oversold both signaling a move towards selling as time plays out. So the daily chart is not in good shape. Price should remain soggy a few days, perhaps price tags 76. Price is extended above the moving averages so a mean reversion lower is needed.

On the weekly chart, the overbot conditions, rising wedge, neggie d (red lines), upper band violation all conspire to create negativity. However, the money flow and MACD line are long and strong so the top is not in on the weekly basis as yet. After hte weakness on the daily chart plays out during the few days and say week ahead, price should come back up for another matching high on the weekly basis. 

There will likely be two jog moves required on the weekly one to turn the money flow neggie d and the other to turn the MACD. Thus, one week down, the next up, then down, then up, and this would be the potential top in PTON and the start of a multi-week pullback. The top on the weekly chart will likely occur later this month or early October. That would be the time to short it when the money flow and MACD line negatively diverge as price comes up again for matching highs, on the weekly basis.

The ADX on the weekly chart heads higher identifying the rally on the weekly chart as a strong trend higher. The ADX would be expected to top out and roll over during the next couple-three weeks as price tops out. The Aroon green line is pegged at 1 hundo and the red line at zero. We have a winner. PTON is at maximum euphoric bullishness on the weekly basis; the hype and joy in owning Peloton cannot become more enthusiastic; it is off the charts. You know what happens after the big party; yes, the big hangover. Probably at month-end would be a good time to think about shorting it; you will have to look at the charts. Keystone is not in it long or short right now but will look to short it in 2 to 4 weeks time when the MACD on the weekly goes neggie d. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Saturday, September 12, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus on Woodward Tapes; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19





By K E Stone (Keystone)

Finally, some good news in fighting the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. America is flattening the active cases bell curve chart which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and equipment. Placing all of President Trump’s lies and embellishments aside over the last few months, King Donnie is finally correct when he says, “The US is rounding the corner.” He has been wrong saying that for the last three months but even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.

Dr Fauci, who has a right to look a bit run-down and tired, disagrees with the president about ‘rounding the corner’ and warns of potential trouble ahead now that many schools are colleges are back in session. Fauci says the statistics are disturbing and he is concerned about a potential Fall wave appearing while the US daily new cases remain elevated (a higher baseline).

There is one caveat concerning the flattening of the curve. A potential reacceleration in virus cases may occur due to the Labor Day parties, students returning to schools and universities, people returning to offices because their pay will be cut otherwise, ongoing protests and riots and Trump rallies where few are wearing masks. The next three weeks are critical.

America is at the exact same place as late May and early June. Folks desperately needing to return to work to put food on the table, as well as impatient Americans, could no longer take the confinement of the lockdown back then and started to comingle, socialize and conduct face-to-face business again. Many citizens chose to party on Memorial Day or go to the beach. Protests and riots demonstrating against racial injustice were occurring spreading the disease. Campaign events and rallies also spread the virus. By mid-June, as the chart shows, the active cases stopped flattening and instead reaccelerated higher into the present-day predicament.

The yellow lines show the active cases bell curve starting to flatten four times over the last month but each time the cases reaccelerated higher creating ongoing stress on the medical system. So far, the sixth time is a charm but again, keep your fingers and toes crossed for the next couple weeks and hope we do not end up like June.

Will America blow it this time? During the Labor Day weekend, did citizens party like its 1999, as Prince would sing, or were people being responsible and maintaining social distancing? Will the protocols at schools, universities, offices and daycare centers prevent the spread of covid? Will the Trump rally attendees, many that think the virus is a hoax following the president’s lead, create more infections? It is scary to think that the US will stumble again like June but as a chartist that follows patterns, there is a stronger chance that the bad outcome occurs repeating the June fractal (brown boxes; behavior in June is repeated in September).

It took the US three months to get into position to potentially defeat the virus by flattening the curve. If America fails this time, there is likely virus horror ahead through the end of the year (upper red dotted line). Hopefully, the bell curve pattern will finally form as the blue dotted line shows and this is the path we are on as this missive is written; however, vigilance is required to prevent a potential Fall wave of the virus as shown by the lower red dotted line.

The new case peak date for the United States occurred on 7/24/20 (blue circle) with 78,615 cases and the peak in active cases occurs on 9/1/20 (purple circle) with 2,561,740 ongoing cases. It took 39 days from the new cases peak date to the active cases peak date. As per the Keystone Model, 28 days was the projection, so the active cases curve took an extra week to peak out. New cases in the US remain robust with 46.6K cases reported yesterday. The new cases curve and its moving averages continue lower but hint that a leveling-off may be occurring. No one wants only a flattening of the new cases at these elevated levels. The US wants new cases to go to zero. The stage is set. The next two weeks determines the longer-term virus fate of America.

The IHME ups its US death toll, again. The latest prediction is 415,000 dead Americans by 1/1/21 as shown with the brown line in the chart above. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects a range of outcomes from 299K deaths (blue line) to 612K deaths (red line) as the worst case. The IHME says December will likely be a deadly month for the virus especially for the US, Europe and Central Asia.

Deaths will trail off faster if the peak in the active cases bell curve chart explained above holds and follows through to the downside (blue dotted line). It would be a miracle and is perhaps wishful thinking but hope and pray that the US deaths will hold under 250K by year-end.

The best cases scenario from the IHME simply extends the ongoing death curve out maintaining the current trend (blue line) reflecting 299K deaths at year-end. Maybe everyone should root for keeping US deaths below 300K by year-end which is equivalent to one hundred 9-11’s (3K Americans died on 9-11). Non-mask-wearing Trump boasts that the virus is under control but 1K Americans keep dying per day the equivalent of one 9-11 every three days. Each day, King Donnie decrees misinformation via tweets as Americans die. It is the bread and circus days for the US; the end of a long multi-decade human cycle a la Kondratieff.

Health experts are not optimistic that the virus pandemic will end in the near term with Fall beginning in 10 days. As the weather becomes colder, people will congregate indoors where the virus spreads easier. Building ventilation and filtration is key since the virus droplets can be recirculated in closed spaces. Virus particle droplets remain aerosolized longer in the dryer, less humid air. In humid air, the water particles, with the virus particle attached, are larger and drop out of the air faster.  On top of these concerns, the regular yearly flu strains may further complicate the final months of 2020 (the regular flu and covid hitting at the same time in a couple months is a major worry of Fauci).

Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has infected nearly 29 million people around the world murdering over 920K souls. 20.6 million people have recovered. The Chinese communists unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.

The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 6.6 million Americans (2.0% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 50 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering over 197K United States citizens. 3.9 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (23%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (21%) of the deaths.

China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world and now brags that the virus is under control in their commie nation with cases approaching zero. The communists are getting back to normal while the rest of the world cleans up their ongoing bioweapon mess. China owes the world restitution for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu on the world’s population.

China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. The communist economy is returning to normal while the rest of the world sinks in the covid quagmire. The lying communists know a lot more about coronavirus than they are sharing with the world. There are small outbreak clusters still occurring in Wuhan and also Beijing but the commie nation will not report it. Never trust a filthy communist; they will slit your throat while you sleep.

President Trump is stepping up the rhetoric against red China. US-China relations have soured since the Chinese released the virus upon the world. Both countries are hassling and expelling foreign journalists and diplomats from their respective nations. There is a whiff of protectionism in the air which exacerbated the 1930’s Great Depression. Trump mentions a US-China decoupling and says, “I’ll limit economic ties with China.”

Three days ago, investigative reporter Bob Woodward, of Watergate fame, released the book “Rage” based on taped phone conversations with President Trump. Whenever there are tapes involved, the mind goes back to the corrupt Watergate days. Woodward has written many books on sitting presidents over the years but Trump’s inner circle recommended against it. Donnie probably figured he is smarter than Woodward and Trump initiated the phone calls to provide the basis for the book.

Trump is on tape telling Woodward that he purposely downplayed the coronavirus to the American public in early February when he knew that covid is transmitted through the air. Trump chose to not tell the American people the truth but instead downplay the pandemic pretending it was a mild flu strain. Typical Trump behavior follows. If the Woodward book is kind to Trump, he would praise Woodward as the greatest author in the history of mankind obviously recognizing genius when he sees it. This did not happen. Instead, the book is critical of Trump so Donnie runs to the nearest podium calling it a political hit-job and decreeing that Woodward is a lousy author and poor journalist. That’s Our Donnie.

Trump told Woodward that he knew the virus was transmitted through the air and very dangerous about five times as lethal as the regular flu on 2/7/20, but chose not to tell the American people because he did not want to create a panic. That is pure bull sh*t. You can smell it. Donnie cares about one thing; Donnie. He wants reelected and viewed the pandemic as an obstacle for the campaign so he chooses to handle it at a distance and talk happy talk instead. Trump, in a Nixonian flashback, proclaims, “I didn’t lie.” 

Trump creates a straw-man argument saying the alternative to him downplaying the virus in February and March up to the present, is that he would have to yell, “Death! Death!” No, he wouldn’t. All he needed to do is show leadership and level with the American people but he instead chose to be deceitful. Trump can call it what he wants and create his own fantasy; the tapes highlight his mindset and lack of proper judgement and experience in handling a major situation such as a pandemic.

Donnie still does not understand that Americans would support him even if the virus became worse if he leveled with everyone from the start and showed them that he was doing everything possible. Trump only views things as winning or losing and he was never willing to do all the hard work from February on to provide leadership. People want someone to steer the ship and provide guidance not pretend all is well while blaming others for any problems. Trump is also fixated on the economy and markets and says he did not want prices (the stock market) to drop. Of course he did. The elite privileged class always sticks together protecting their financial assets. Trump is like all the other politicians loyally performing the bidding of the elite class since they fund the election campaigns. Such is the crony capitalism system.

Humorously, the country is so polarized right now that rabid republicans would vote for Trump even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue as Donnie himself quipped four years ago. Likewise, the rabid democrats would vote for Biden even if he shot someone tomorrow. The Woodward Tapes, as they are now called, analogous to the Watergate Tapes, at least this is what the liberals hope for, will probably not change a lot of minds. Most republicans supporting the Trumpster do so because of the ongoing appointments of judges. They laugh and make fun of the orange headed showman behind his back but praise him in public because the conservatives want to stack the courts for the next couple decades and they are succeeding.

The Woodward book also says Dr Fauci says, “Trump’s attention span is like a minus number.” That’s funny. It is easy to understand since Donnie does not possess a deep understanding of many topics and issues or even how the US government works. For Trump, the presidency is more of a television reality show where he sells the sizzle not the steak and each day is a new episode unrelated to the prior day. When asked to comment on the Woodward book, Fauci downplays his comment about Trump and says he remains focused on the pandemic.

A few days ago, Fauci says, “We need to be doing much better than we’re doing.” He says the virus is a “mixed bag” with states such as the Dakota’s, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa experiencing increased outbreaks.

The AstraZeneca phase three human trials are put on hold after a patient becomes sick. AZN stock tumbles -5% when the news was released after the market closed on Tuesday. AZN finishes the week flat. As this is typed, AstraZeneca resumes the human trials in the UK and the company remains optimistic. The trials in other nations remains halted. Pfizer and BioNTech say their human trials are on track to enroll more than 30K participants within the next couple weeks. Pfizer proclaims that they will know if the vaccine works by the end of October which creates enthusiasm in the vaccine race. PFE and BNTX stock may pop on Monday morning.

Nine pharmaceutical companies including AstraZeneca (AZN), Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), Merck (MRK), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ; Johnny John), Sanofi (SNY) and Novavax (NVAX) sign a pledge to not rush a vaccine. The companies promise that safety and ethics protocols will be followed like any other vaccine. The pharmaceutical makers felt a need to go public with this information due to President Trump continually proclaiming that a vaccine will be available by the election. The pharma companies do not want any of this political stink to rub off on them.

Big pharma is getting worried that they are spending billions of dollars on a vaccine that no one is going to want to take. Polls have fluctuated but one-half to two-thirds of Americans are skeptical of taking a vaccine.

When the active cases chart above was flattening and rolling over in late May and early June as a sign that the pandemic was abating, President Trump needed to be encouraging mask-wearing and a final couple-week push to stay home as much as possible (through Memorial Day) to nip the virus in the bud like most other nations. He did not. He still does not encourage mask wearing or social distancing. The pandemic remains a chaotic and confusing mess for citizens which increases the fear and angst in the population. People have been feeling a bit more comfortable about the direction of the pandemic over the last couple weeks but if the active cases turns upwards again, the US is screwed into year-end.

The CDC reports that people infected with covid are twice as likely to have eaten at a restaurant in recent days. People cannot wear a mask while eating but the transmissions, as a previous article highlighted, may mainly be due to the restroom interactions. When at a bar or restaurant drinking beverages, duty calls, and a trip to the little boy’s, or little girl’s, room is required. There is a saying at the local tavern that “you can’t buy beer (or coffee), you can only rent it.”

The restrooms are where humans let it fly out of both ends. Men are coughing and spitting into the sink. People are touching all the same fixtures with germ-ridden hands. Virus aerosols are floating in the stagnant stinky air. If in any building, try to avoid using the facilities unless it is absolutely necessary. If you are out on errands and near home, go home and use your own bathroom and then head back out. There is a lot that is unknown about the transmission of the virus and scientists will likely realize that fecal matter and dirty restrooms may play a significant role in creating new infections.

Interestingly, many hair salons have reopened and they are not causing the elevated infection rate that you see at bars and restaurants. What is the difference? Customers are going back and forth to the restrooms at the bars and restaurants but at a salon you typically do not use their facilities.

Students return to schools and colleges and the university towns in states such as Virginia, Texas and Washington are experiencing increased infection rates. Young folks are partying. At one university, several infected students host a party. One girl at a party in Texas is bragging on the smartphone that she has the virus; authorities tracked the young lady to a sorority and are now beginning quarantine and tracing procedures. The pandemic is a mess.

The months of conflicting misinformation from the president, scientists, doctors, politicians and media has created a confused public some folks not worried at all about the virus while others remain at home wearing a mask while hiding under the bed. Each day, the scientists and doctors will tell you one thing, President Trump tells you something else, and a talking head in the media tells you a third thing. No one knows what to believe or do so the pandemic lingers on.

A CDC study in Utah reveals that asymptomatic children infected with the virus have passed it on to parents or others. Over the last two weeks, the coronavirus cases among children has increased +16%. Kids become less ill off the virus and tolerate it far better than adults but it can be fatal in rare instances. The main concern is children becoming infected at schools and daycare centers and then passing it on to older folks at home, teachers and others.

NIH Director Collins responds to the Woodward revelations that Trump had downplayed the virus from the start. Collins says the news is “puzzling and disheartening.” On a cable news show, Collins is shown pictures of college kids partying without masks and folks attending the Trump rally in Michigan most without masks. A clearly flabbergasted Collins opines, “How did we get here?” Very simply, doctors and scientists can tell you to wear a mask but if the leader of the Free World shuns masks contradicting the doctors, people are left to decide themselves; that’s how we got here. Chaos and confusion.

Collins says, “There will be no compromise on vaccine safety” and there is not a rush to have a vaccine by Election Day (11/3/20); only 52 days away. He hopes a vaccine will be available by year-end. Collins wants people to listen to the scientists rather than the politicians.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by India, Brazil, Russia, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, South Africa, Spain, Argentina, Chile, Iran, France, UK, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Italy, Iraq and Germany. India overtakes Brazil for the number two spot behind the US. South Africa moves down the list by two spots. France jumps four slots higher on the list (virus is getting worse). Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia switch positions. Iraq appears on the list in worse shape than Germany. The USA, India, Brazil and Russia are in the 1 million total virus cases club. America has 6.6 million cases, India 4.7 million cases, Brazil 4.3 million and Russia 1.1 million.

Europe is clearly fighting a new outbreak of coronavirus with Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Romania, Czechia, Germany, etc.. on the list above. Also Turkey and Russia. Europe is on shaky ground economically, as is the rest of the world, and may take the whole planet down if the virus rapidly spreads again. Europe is China’s main trading partner. On a positive note, Australia, Hong Kong and Japan have successfully handled a second coronavirus wave.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 19 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This nineteenth article is published on Saturday, 9/12/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, etc..). Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time period as the initial wave. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. After many months, the active cases curve finally flattens and hopefully moves lower to create the bell shape. The discussion about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains to the active cases chart and not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens are confused with the charts and data.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,663 new cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US active cases to peak and it peaked on 9/1/20 (as long as the Labor Day party weekend and schools reopening do not create a reacceleration in new cases). Reference the chart above.

The 35 worst global hotspots are highlighted below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers) provided. Bangladesh is on the road to recovery since its active cases curve has peaked and rolled over. Ditto USA, Brazil, El Salvador, Philippines (sketchy data), Columbia (problematic data), Bolivia (problematic data), Moldova (problematic data), Poland, Croatia (problematic data), Honduras, Peru (sketchy data), South Africa, Panama and Kuwait.

Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)

Albania
8/26/20 New Case Peak Date
9/23/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Ethiopia
8/28/20 New Case Peak Date
9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Costa Rica
8/31/20 New Case Peak Date
9/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/1/20 New Case Peak Date (huge spike higher; most new cases since March)
9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Canada (Second Wave)
9/8/20 New Case Peak Date
10/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is moving flat with a slight upward bias)

Ireland (Second Wave)
9/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since May)
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)

Iraq
9/8/20 New Case Peak Date
10/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Finland (Second Wave)
9/9/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since May)
9/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)

Germany (Second Wave)
9/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

Greece (Second Wave)
9/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)

Austria (Second Wave)
9/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)

Israel (Third Wave)
9/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)

Bahrain (Second Wave)
9/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Iran (Third Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

UAE (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since 5/22/20)
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Turkey (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since May and June)
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Russia (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Ukraine
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Czechia (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest cases ever)
9/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

Hungary (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)


Romania (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Switzerland (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

France (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Italy (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Belgium (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)


Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Portugal (Second Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Morocco (Fourth Wave)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

Ecuador (Third Wave) (data is problematic)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Argentina (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Indonesia
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Nepal
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

India (Hell on Earth; pray for Mother Theresa’s spirit to help)
9/11/20 New Case Peak Date
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

North Korea (no virus data is available; the hermit kingdom is in famine; Kim Jong-un may be dead)

There is lots of ugliness above. Five countries show a peak in new cases on Thursday, 9/10/20. 21 countries show a peak in new cases on Friday, 9/11/20. This gets your attention; 26 nations with new cases printing new highs over the last two days. That is a lot of countries going to Hell in a handbag all at the same time. This trend may continue which signals major trouble for Europe, Western Asia/Eastern Europe, Middle East, South Asia, Pacific Islands and South America. The active cases charts are spiking vertically higher for several countries and these curves may need some time to flatten and roll over. It is not a pretty picture.

The news for the United States is good as explained above with the active cases bell curve chart flattening and rolling over, however, the next couple weeks is critical as we find out if people did too much partying on Labor Day and at the college dormitories and apartments, spreading the virus, or not. Mexico’s virus troubles linger on like the stink from a two-day old burrito. The active cases curve for Mexico continues higher.

India is Hell on Earth the nation in the hotseat right now but that entire list above should be considered hotspots, especially the bottom 26. Europe is concerning since a collapse of its economy could send the global markets and economy into a tailspin even a global recession or depression. The total of Europe’s new cases are exceeding US new cases.

It is interesting that the United States is brokering deals between the Jewish and Arab states these days first the UAE and yesterday announcing that Bahrain will resume diplomatic relations with Israel. Perhaps coronavirus focused the minds. All three countries are in the pickle barrel right now with active cases ramping higher. An inquiring mind wonders if the US dangled the ventilator, PPE and covid medical supply carrot in front of the Arab noses which sealed the peace deal.  The Arabs likely said they will play nice if the US, and/or Israel, help them fight covid.

Many of the projections for the peak in the active cases bell curves are now slipping into October. The pandemic drama continues into the Fall months. Unfortunately, Europe’s woes are lining up with the cooler Fall and colder winter seasons quickly approaching in the northern hemisphere. A perfect storm (a bad thing) may be developing.

For America, the troubled states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 14 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California (worst), Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Ohio. The list is identical to 10 days ago except Massachusetts was removed.

Texas, Florida, Illinois, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio are key battleground states for the presidential election on 11/3/20 so voters may choose a candidate depending on how the virus plays out over he next 50 days.

Typically, the future president, be it Trump reelected or Biden elected, will win Florida and Ohio. Florida election results should be known by about 9 PM EST on 11/3/20 and that should indicate which silver-haired white guy will win.

Below is a listing of the 28 states having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic.

Arizona
New Case Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)

Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20 (8/8/20 is a big new cases day)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart continues higher)

Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart continues higher)

Colorado (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart continues higher)

Oregon
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20 (chart continues higher)

Alaska
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20 (8/28/20 is a big new cases day)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20 (chart continues higher)

Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (chart continues higher)

Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 8/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/9/20 (chart continues higher)

Delaware (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (chart continues higher)

Alabama
New Case Peak Date 8/26/20 (highest cases since early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/23/20

Iowa
New Case Peak Date 8/28/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/25/20

South Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/30/20 (8/29/20 highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/27/20 (chart may have peaked 9/4/20)

Missouri
New Case Peak Date 8/31/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/28/20

Hawaii
New Case Peak Date 9/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/30/20
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/2/20

West Virginia
New Case Peak Date 9/5/20 (highest cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/3/20

North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/5/20 (8/29/20 highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/3/20 (chart may have peaked 9/6/20)

South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 9/6/20 (highest cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/4/20

Kansas
New Case Peak Date 9/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/5/20

Rhode Island
New Case Peak Date 9/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/6/20

New Hampshire (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/8/20

Wisconsin (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/8/20

Montana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/8/20 (data is problematic)

Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (1 of 10 high days this year)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/9/20

Utah (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (highest new cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/9/20

Indiana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/9/20 (data is problematic)

Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/9/20

Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/9/20

Arkansas, Michigan, Indiana, Utah, Nebraska, Montana, Wisconsin and New Hampshire are in hot water currently. It is odd to see states such as New Hampshire appear on the list but new cases are increasing in many states. Interestingly, Michigan is in the hot seat with new cases ramping higher. A Trump campaign rally was held in Michigan a few days ago where most attendees did not where masks and some boasted that the virus is a hoax. Good luck to them. Maryland and Colorado appear on the list again.

The active cases curve continues higher for all 28 states listed above or the new cases have printed new highs over the last couple days which will likely lead to a ramping higher of the active cases chart. No wonder Fauci is on the somber side and worried about the data. Roughly three-fifths of US states are seeing a spike in new cases and their respective active cases curves ramping higher and not flattening.

How does this resolve with the happy talk in the first paragraph about the US active cases bell curve flattening and rolling over? This is explained by the top four states with the most total cases California, Texas, Florida and New York. These states already jumped through the coronavirus hoop of fire and their respective active cases bell curves have all rolled over or are in that process. Since the weighting of total, new and active cases in these four states is higher than other states, the overall active cases curve for the United States is flattening and showing progress at potentially rolling over.

The Florida active virus cases chart is highlighted above. The bell curve pattern taking shape is textbook. President Trump is happy with this chart since it will increase his chances of reelection. If a candidate wins Florida, he (or in future years she) typically wins the presidency.

The individual state data is shooting a big hole in the hope that the US active cases bell curve will continue lower. 28 states are a lot of states to be descending into covid Hell right now. One can understand Fauci’s concern especially with the overall US active cases bell curve hinting at rainbows and blue skies ahead while 28 states say a lightning storm and heavy winds are more likely coming over the horizon instead. People may have a false sense of security and hope that the virus is subsiding now just like in late May and early June.

Michigan and Wisconsin are key battleground states. Ditto New Hampshire but it only has a paltry four Electoral College votes. Maybe come the evening of 11/3/20, one candidate of the other is going to be wishing they had those four measly Electoral College votes. University of Wisconsin-Madison stops in-person classes after a spike in positive cases occurs.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment.

The US economy is stumbling along as Congress fights over a stimulus bill. The republican-controlled Senate tries to pass a skinnied-down bill of $300 billion last week but it failed to receive enough votes. All democrats voted against it since they want the larger $2 trillion plus package. One republican voted against it. The Senate was simply playing politics so they can call the democrats obstructionists. Americans are sick of the tribal baby games. The stock market is stumbling these days. King Donnie judges his success by the stock market. Americans are angry at Congress for its inaction at providing stimulus. The bills are stacking-up, the landlord wants his rent and jobs remain scarce.

Documentation is arising showing that Trump appointees in the HHS office are editing CDC medical reports so they are in line with the president's narratives. This is no surprise in corrupt America. Politics and medicine do not mix well. Showman Trump has always been focused on the 'perception' of how he handles the pandemic this year not the actual handling of the coronavirus situation. He wants reelected.

Trump denigrates Biden accusing him of taking drugs. The political games and garbage become funnier each day. Two corrupt guys battling for the top job. Donnie has been saying for the last year how Biden cannot string a sentence together and it looks like he has mental deficiency problems. After the convention and now that Biden is more active on the campaign trail, people see that Sleepy Joe appears to function okay.

Trump has set the bar super low for Biden in the debates. The first debate is on 9/29/20 only 2 weeks away, so an average showing by Joe would make him look great. Now Trump changes tactics and says Biden is taking drugs that makes him very sharp in the mind. Hilariously, is Donnie worried that Biden may actually win the first debate? If so, it would likely sink Trump's ship since the president painted Biden as a weak, confused, incompetent man. If Biden does well, Donnie will say it is due to drugs. Do you see how the orange head always plots his getaways and excuses in advance? Trump would be best served to avoid the drug talk. When you are losing the argument, you yell out that the other person is racist or on drugs. It is cringe worthy.

The recognizable faces and names dying from coronavirus are stacking up. John Prine finally travels to Paradise. Ditto rapper Fred the Godson, lion-tamer Roy Horn (of Siegried & Roy), Auburn coach Pat Dye, Broadway star Nick Cordero, Trump supporter Herman Cain, Italian shoe designer Sergio Rossi kicked the bucket, New Orleans Saints (American football) toe-less kicker Tom Dempsey, baseball star pitcher and Hall of Famer Tom Seaver and many others.

The coronavirus saga continues. The revelation which may be hard to shake by President Trump, is his own admission, on tape to Bob Woodward, that he purposely downplayed the seriousness of the virus when he knew it was five times or more dangerous than the common flu. Teflon Don is skilled at extricating himself from jams with his bombastic and repetitive diatribes and narratives so the week ahead will be entertaining if nothing else.

The Sunday morning talk shows will be lively with both corrupt political tribes spinning the news to gain an advantage into the 11/3/20 election. Monday kicks off the final 50-day countdown until America chooses between the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown and the sleepy confused thin-framed septuagenarian. Why bother? Spend the day with the honey and the kids. The election is not that important since it only determines which silver-haired white guy oversees the ongoing collapse of the rigged crony capitalism system.

Fires are raging in the western states but President Trump appears uninterested since the West Coast votes democrat and he is correctly in disagreement with California’s forest management program which is part of the problem. Trump travels to Nevada today which should be interesting since smoke fills the western skies. In late-breaking news, Trump announces plans to visit the fires in California on Monday.

Continue monitoring the US active cases bell curve chart provided above to see if it continues flattening and rolling over to provide a much-needed rest for the healthcare workers, emergency medics and medical equipment. Considering the increase in new cases in the 28 states listed above, the road ahead does not appear rosy but for now, one can hope that the active cases curve will continue rolling over. If the US active cases curve begins moving higher again, repeating the June fractal, America will be screwed into year-end.

Note Added Sunday, 9/13/20: President Trump attends the rally in Nevada. Many folks are not wearing masks and the crowd is not practicing social distancing. It is surreal that the POTUS knew how deadly coronavirus was in early February, but did not properly inform and warn the American people, and months later still encourages campaign rallies which are likely super spreader events for the virus. It's bizarre. Chairs were spaced apart at the event but the minute the Trump supporters filled the venue all that was ignored. Events of over 50 people are banned in Nevada currently but political protests are allowed to proceed with larger groups. Thus, Trump calls the event a peaceful protest rather than a campaign rally. Don't you love it that the leader of the US, running on a law and order platform, is performing deeds that go around the laws. It is fantastic. Just another example of how the crony capitalism system is crumbling around us. The crowd is about 5K people smaller than the size of the rallies four years ago; some supporters are staying home due to covid concerns. Interestingly, Donnie's crowds may be a bit smaller than the last election but they are more enthusiastic and gun-ho for his reelection. In southwestern Pennsylvania, Keystone's home base in the beautiful Laurel Highlands, the Trump yard signs are increasing. This was a tell four years ago that Trump was on his way to victory but the stage is set a little different this time around. The president's supporters are displaying rabid enthusiasm ahead of the election as evidenced by many folks placing two Trump signs in the front yard instead of one. Three Trump signs around the community have been shot with white paintballs. For a couple months, there were only Biden yard signs dotting the landscape here and there. Over the last month, as another local Trump field office has opened, the Trump signs now outnumber the Biden yard signs by about 3 to 1. Trump says the election will be rigged. Comically, he will say all is fine if he wins but if he loses he will say it was rigged. You have to love it. Trump proclaims the happy vaccine narrative over and over saying it will be available "early" and "it's happening, we're rounding the turn." He was saying 'rounding the corner' for many weeks now it is 'rounding the turn'. Inquiring minds want to know how long is this sweeping turn? Trump has no idea; it is simply more campaign rhetoric. New virus cases spike in the Dakota's. North Dakota reports 467 new cases yesterday the highest ever for the state. The Sturgis motorcycle rally in August obviously plays a role in the increased infections. One biker attending that rally has died of covid. The pandemic remains a chaotic mess. On Sunday evening, Bob Woodward is on the 60 Minutes news show discussing the book and the president's comments. Woodward has known and wrote about several presidents but this is the only book where he penned his own opinion in the end and he does not consider Trump fit for office after the mishandling of the virus and other comments during the 18 interviews.

Note Added Tuesday, 9/15/20: President Trump holds two indoor rallies in the last two days where people are commingling many without masks or remaining socially distant. When asked why he was not afraid of getting the virus being within such a closed area with people yelling, cheering and coughing, Trump says he is on stage above all the folks and far enough away where he is not concerned. Spoken like a true narcissist. The statement shows that King Donnie does not care about his loyal serfs and subjects. He lets them wallow around in the pen beneath him without concern for their safety. This is strange stuff. Time will tell if infections spike from these rallies that many call super spreader events. The Sturgis motorcycle rally results in an outbreak in the Dakota's. During the rallies, Trump proclaims that the election is rigged because of mail-in voting. If he wins he will call it the most fair and honest election ever. More Woodward tape excerpts are released. President Trump said, "nothing more could have been done" about the handling the virus but that is not true. However, any other politician in his place would have likely performed about the same as Trump. The stock market rallies on the happy Pfizer vaccine talk. A molecular biologist at Broad Institute, Alina Chan, makes the case that the coronavirus may have been man made and originated in a lab in Wuhan, China. Of course it was. She receives viscous push back from colleagues and politicians. Of course she does. People and governments likely have their hands dirty in creating the groundwork to enable China's bioterrorism and they will not want any of that known. Doctors and scientists reviewing data from last year think that the virus was in the US a lot sooner than thought. There was a spike in respiratory and pneumonia-style diseases and deaths in America in December. After all these months, scientists remain baffled about COVID-19.

Note Added Wednesday, 9/16/20: The active cases bell curve for the United States continues to flatten which is great news. The curve needs to start falling off now to create the bell shape. America sits where it was at on Memorial Day nearly four months ago in respect to the bell curve which indicates the stress on the US medical system. On the depressing side, there are now over 200,000 Americans dead from coronavirus. Trump says there is nothing more he could have done. Americans are out and about many not wearing masks. President Trump continues not wearing a mask conducting rallies and Whitehouse events where most attendees also do not wear masks. The next two weeks will tell the tale. The Middle East peace deal between Israel (Jews) and the UAE and Bahrain (Arabs) was likely finalized in part by America and Israel offering offering virus aid to the Arab nations. UAE and Bahrain are n the middle of outbreaks. New virus cases are spiking higher in Oman, Morocco and Sudan so look for these nations to join the peace agreement since they will want help handling the virus. If this occurs, you will know that virus aid to the Arab nations has a lot to do with the peace agreement. The Chinese communists that unleashed the coronavirus bioweapon say they will have a vaccine in November. The lying commies likely have the vaccine now but are waiting until after the US election since they would rather see Biden as president. The World Economic Forum says the vaccines may not meet the global supply needs. One thing for sure is the elite privileged class will have the vaccine if they want it. Dr Fauci says a national mask mandate probably will not help. A few days ago, JP Morgan Chase, known as a premier banker on Wall Street, tells its employees to come back to the office. Some companies are beginning to cut pay if workers want to remain at home. For JP Morgan, many employees return. An employee tests positive for the virus and the bank has to send that trading floor back home. The virus is stubborn and does not listen to the words of man. Coronavirus simply searches for a host.

Note Added Thursday, 9/17/20: CDC Director Redfield tells Congress that $6 billion is required to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine. Redfield champions the use of masks and says the public needs to wear masks, practice social distancing, wash hands, avoid crowds and stay home if sick. He says the CDC will not be affected by politics. Redfield proclaims, "Face masks, these face masks (holding a face mask in his hand) are the most important powerful public health tool we have and I will continue to appeal for all Americans, all individuals in our country, to embrace these face coverings, I've said it, if we did if for 6, 8, 10, 12 weeks we would bring this pandemic under control, these actually, we have clear scientific evidence they work, and they are our best defense, I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against covid than when I take a covid vaccine....." President Trump is not happy with the statement and says the doctor misspoke. Trump says some doctors think face masks are a problem. Of course when pressed on who these people are that say these things, the president can never provide details. In other words, he simply talks out of his butt making it up as he goes along. It's hilarious, although tragic. Fauci and other doctors say a vaccine may be ready by year-end but the distribution will occur in 2021. Trump refutes the doctors saying they made a mistake and that a vaccine may be proven within a month or two. Now Donnie is a doctor giving advice. Trump says he supports using face masks but at his events few wear them. The president pressures the CDC and others to tout narratives favorable to his reelection. The US presidential election is only 47 days away. A Whitehouse staffer tests positive for the virus but the spokesperson will not provide names or details. Of course they won't. Non-transparency is one of the hallmarks of the ongoing collapse of the crony capitalism system. America's handling of the pandemic remains a mess. Europe is descending deeper into covid Hell and some nations are imposing lockdowns again.