Thursday, May 28, 2020

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross; Cyclical Stock Market Indicators



A couple of Keystone's key intermediate and long-term cyclical stock market indicators are the SPX Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and the NYA Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross. Some of you novice investors are asking, "What does that mumbo-jumbo mean?" The SPX 12-month MA cross is one of the most important signals in the stock market. Ditto the NYA 40-week. You must follow these two charts continuously, otherwise you are bush league.

The SPX 12-month MA is at 2995 with price at 3030. Therefore, the stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern, albeit by only 35 points. Hold your horses. The NYA 40-week MA is at 12634 with price at 11805. Therefore, the stock market is in a cyclical bear market pattern. One of them is wrong. Typically, they agree.

You can see that both charts are in a cyclical bull market pattern into late 2018. Then stocks fall into a cyclical bear market from late 2018 into early 2019 when the stock market was saved again by the Federal Reserve's obscene Keynesian money-printing. Stocks turn cyclically bullish again but then fall into a summer swoom. If you recall, last July, the Keybot the Quant algorithm called out the start of a housing recession. There were obviously major problems behind the scenes in September as the markets were freezing-up. Fed Chairman Powell soiled his shorts twice during September/October. The average person knows nothing about what is going on in the world of high finance and corrupt trading.

The green circles show where the September/October crisis got so bad there was real fear the markets would seize-up and collapse. In rides the Fed to save the day once again. The four horseman of the global financial apocalypse, the Fed, BOJ, ECB and PBOC, will goose markets as long as possible until the entire global financial system collapses. It is only a question of when. When Ron White the comedian was on an airplane trip, one engine began smoking and was shut off for the two-engine plane. Ron ordered another drink while the guy sitting next to him was in full-on panic mode. The hysterical passenger asked Ron, "How far can one engine take us!!?" Ron smiled and said, "All the way to the crash site." It's only a matter of when.

That was a Tweezer Bottom on the NYA last October. The Fed had no choice (in their minds due to the sick direction they began in March 2009 with limitless money-printing to save the wealthy class) but to once again print money like madmen. Both charts were losing their critical levels and stocks were set to crash. All that obscene central bank largess then ran the stock market wildly higher into January and February when the inevitable day of reckoning began. The monthly chart prints a Tweezer Top (red circle).

The SPX 10-month MA at 3002 is another important level mainly watched by old-timer's, and these men, and very few women, move lots of money daily. When the SPX moved above the 12-mth MA, its a huge deal. When it moves above the 10-mth MA, it is confirmation of the upside. Stock market bears need to push the SPX below 3002 pronto or they will lose going forward. A failure of 3002 then opens the door for the critical test of the 12 at 2995.

Okay, so what does all this rambling mean? If you prefer to trade on an intermediate-term and long-term basis such as weeks and months, you want to follow the two charts above so you know if the stock market is in a cyclical bull (where you would weight your portfolio long) or a cyclical bear (where the portfolio should be weighted short). One of the two indicators above, the SPX 12-mth cross, or NYA 40-wk cross, will flinch. Either the SPX will fail at 2995 and open the trap-door to stock market carnage below, or, the NYA will overtake its 40-week MA signaling the all-clear for bullish joy and upside partying ahead. Who do you think will win? It will tell you the path of the stock market for the remainder of the year.  If you like to play it safe, wait for the confirmation as to which cyclical direction the markets commit to, and assemble your portfolio going forward based on that outcome. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/30/20: The bears were starting to flex their muscles but Prince Powell and King Trump ride to the rescue. Fed Chairman Powell conducted a press conference via video. Dickey would say, and sing, that he was a Ramblin' Man rambling on and on. The stock market was not impressed continuing to languish. In rides President Trump, speaking in the afternoon, dissolving the relationship with WHO since they prefer to lay in bed with the filthy Chinese communists. Trump pledges to provide that money to other organizations that act more independently. Again, the stock market was generally non-reactive as most of the president's speech centered around the WHO and China screwing the world with the Wuhan Flu. It was what Donnie did not say. Trump did not address the strained US-China trade war which is what the market is fixated on since there are billions involved as well as the fate of many corporations. Stocks rally since Donnie is mainly all bluster as usual and he stays away from commenting on the trade problems. The SPX drops to a LOD at 2999 at 1 PM EST yesterday rupturing the 10-month MA support at 3002 and teasing towards the bull-bear line in the cyclical sand at the 12-mth MA at 2995. The S&P 500 then bounced off the lows anticipating happy talk from King Donnie. When Trump began speaking the SPX came down to retest the low area of the day at...... wait for it........ no, you really have to wait for it a little bit longer...... a bit longer...... yes, price came down and bounced directly off of the 10-month MA at 3002. Of course it did. Not only do the old-timer's consider this a key level but so do the algorithm's. Many of the trading models incorporate the 10-mth cross into their programs. Keybot the Quant does not program the 10-mth MA but does have the SPX 12-month MA cross programmed into the algo. The SPX rocket launches 42 points during the last hour of trading to close the week at 3044. That is 49 points above the key SPX line in the sand, the 12-month MA at 2995. As price moves higher, ditto the moving averages, but as price comes back down the moving averages will relax lower slightly. Thus, watch SPX 3002 and the 3003 palindrome as the first warning signal that serious problems for equities are about to occur. Then, when 2995-2996 fails, it is lights out. The bulls are happy well above these key doomsday levels complementing the Fed on their latest batch of easy money wine. The 200-day MA is at 3002 the same level as the 10-month right now. Of course this key support level has skin in the game but the veteran traders are not concerned about 3002 from the short-term daily perspective (price will move below the 200, and back above the 200, and below, and so forth on the daily trading basis) but rather 3002 because it is the 10-mth MA. Since the SPX 10 and 12-mth MA's have already been taken out by the crash, this ongoing back test is critical. Realize that if the SPX loses 2995-3003, it is over for the stock market for many months forward, definitely this year, and perhaps several years ahead.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Rising Wedge; Upper Band Violation


The search for the elusive near-term top in the stock market continues. The SPX gains another 30 points so far intraday. The bulls have their chests puffed out and feel they can do no wrong. Traders and investors say the economic data is improving, a vaccine for the coronavirus (COVID-19) should arrive in the mail any day and the central bankers keep printing money. Life is good in the phony markets. Complacency rules. There is no reason to worry about stocks ever going down again since the Federal Reserve will always save the day. The central bankers are the market. Uncle Frank, who typically plays the investing game safe, decided to invest his life savings in NFLX stock since everybody uses the media service; he has not used Netflix and does not understand it but the financial manager in town, located next to the Family Dollar store, said it is a no-brainer.

With the market euphoria off the charts and traders drinking Fed wine buying stocks with reckless abandon, what could possibly go wrong? Price runs higher today and the bulls feel invincible. Note the tight standard deviation bands that squeezed out the big move higher (pink arrows). Price is running up the top standard deviation band so the middle band at 2995, and lower band at 2914, are on the table.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The rising red wedge is ominous. The chart in negative divergence (red lines) so price is moving up only on fumes; the fuel tank is empty. The MACD, and money flow, are trying to squeeze out another hour or two of upside for SPX but note that the MACD is neggie d across the one-month time frame and its goose is actuality cooked. Thus, the top is in. You want to see that MACD and money flow curl over but it looks like a go for the bears now. The SPX daily chart will have to be referenced to see if the neggie d forms there across all its indicators to lock in the downside on the hourly basis and daily basis.

The S&P 500 should roll over on the 2-hour chart going forward so the top is in before the closing bell today. If not, than tomorrow morning as long as happy talk does not hit the air waves. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:16 PM EST: The S&P 500 moves through a 45-point range intraday today with a HOD at 3069 at 1:55 PM EST the highest price since 3/5/20. Into the closing bell stocks fall apart. King Donnie announces plans to speak about the rift with China tomorrow. The orange one also signs an executive order that will try to make life hard on TWTR, FB and other social platforms. The SPX finishes the session down 6 points, -0.2%, to 3030. Keystone extends his right arm and drops the mic.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/30/20: Keystone walks back on stage, picks up the mic, and announces that the SPX jumps 15 points, +0.5%, to 3044 in the Friday session. Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump both speak trying to goose markets higher and they succeed. Price remains above the 200-day MA at 3002. Another hanging man candlestick prints although the tail could be a bit longer, and with price at matching highs for three days in a row, the indicators are in neggie d and agreeable for the near-term top to be in place and send stocks lower on both the 2-hour and daily charts. The complacency and lack of fear in markets guarantees the near-term top. Powell and Trump are doing what they can to keep the equity turd floating in the bowl and avoid the flush lower. The expectation is for stocks to fall from here for several days forward. If the SPX does come back up to tease around that 3050-3070 area again, which is only say 20 points higher, that will be the top and stocks will roll over from there. The move lower will be interesting since the SPX weekly chart remains long and strong. Thus, the pullback is probably going to be sharp and quick. Maybe a flash crash. June trading begins Monday and the SPX may dump from -5% to -10% during the first couple weeks of the month. A dump of 150 to 200 SPX points is likely; once it starts you can gauge how much juice the bears have. Of course, Powell or Trump may try to provide happy talk on the weekend or early Monday morning to keep elevating the markets. Asia trading will be interesting on Sunday evening since those markets will react to Trump's comments on US-China relations. The weekly chart is interesting since it wants to see more price highs over the next 2 to 3 weeks. The SPX may flush lower 200 points in early June only to rebound again to print matching highs say by mid to late month and then roll over into oblivion on a weekly basis. Due to the way the weekly chart is setting up, and if Powell and Trump can keep the SPX floating along for another week or two, that would provide enough time for the weekly chart to go neggie d and take a huge flush lower. Thus, two paths. First, which is the one considered more likely for right now, is that the SPX is flushed lower during the coming days and week or two, probably a two-hundo point drop or more. Then stocks rocket launch with a V bottom everyone convinced that was the last flush lower. When price comes up to the matching high in mid to late June the weekly will go neggie d and a more serious top is in place that flushes stocks far lower on a multi-week basis, perhaps a crash. Second, the happy talk keeps stocks floating along. The SPX may pull back and tease the critical 2995-3003 area for a few days but recover again putting us into the second week of June, perhaps mid month. At that time the wheels fall off because the weekly chart will go neggie d and the big flush lower occurs for a multi-week period, perhaps a crash. Considering the erratic price behavior in markets right now, a flash crash scenario is definitely on the table.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Tight Bands; Aroon at Maximum Euphoric Bullishness; Hanging Man


There is a lot going on in the spaghetti above. With the low prints on the put/calls signaling rampant complacency, a near-term top is at hand so it is simply a matter of pinpointing the top through negative divergences and other charting techniques. During the Wednesday, 5/27/20, trade, the SPX daily candlestick prints a hanging man in all his dying splendor. Ambrose Bierce is intrigued at the vision of a hanging man as he wrote in An Occurrence at Owl Creek.

The hanging man candlestick typically occurs when a trend change is about to happen. Note the tail, or shadow, of the candlestick is twice, almost three times, as long as the head; this gives the hanging man some street cred. It tells you that the selling action was super strong even though equities ended up on the day hinting that the underlying market is weaker than anyone realizes.


The trading volume is unimpressive for the new high for the 2-month rally. Most of the volume is on the sell side and the total volume could not even overtake the buying volume from six days ago at SPX 2850-ish. For a breakout, much larger volume would be expected.


The stochastics are overbot and agreeable to a pull back in prices although the RSI is not overbot. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous. Remember, the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. A rising wedge is a man dancing on the edge of a cliff. All is fine as he displays smooth moves along the trail until he trips over a rock. Typically, he would simply fall to the ground and will pick himself up again. For the rising wedge, however, he trips, and falls off a cliff; broken bones and perhaps death is guaranteed.


The indicators are all in negative divergence except for the RSI and if you squint you can see that the MACD line is trying to eek out a bit more upside. This hints that a couple day or so jog move is likely to place the top (down for a day or so but then back up for a matching or higher price high when the RSI will go neggie d). The top is in when the RSI and MACD go neggie d. It could be today. If stocks pop at the open, there's your higher high, but the two parameters roll over, the top is in.


The standard deviation gold bands show price violating the upper band so a move back to the middle band at 2909, and even the lower band at 2793, are on the table. However, at the same time, the standard deviation bands are squeezing in tight (gold arrows). Look at how wide the bands are in March and April and then they skinny-down this month. Tight standard deviation bands indicate that a huge move is on tap but the bands do not predict direction. Sometimes the move is straight vertical, or straight south, or sometimes there is a little fake-out move for a few days before price makes its final decision in the opposite direction for the big move. That is where the chart is now. Note that price was near the bottom band only nine days ago. The bulls are feeling pretty good that the tight bands will squeeze the move higher as it has for the last week but the jury is out. In the next few days the story will be told. Either price explodes higher from here running up the top side of the band to 3050, 3100 and higher, or, a sharp reversal occurs and the tight bands send price drastically lower quickly.


The SPX tested the 20-day MA and then gapped-up through verifying this few-day rally. Price is now above all the moving averages a bullish signal but since it just occurred you have to give it a couple days to see if it holds. That 2965-3020 cluster range is no-man's land so watch to see if price relaxes back below 3020 which tells you the market cannot make up its mind as to what it wants to do. Of course bears need price to come back down through the moving averages. Each day that price remains above the 3020 level, is another day of bull joy that makes stocks stronger and stronger going forward.


The 150-day MA slope is a useful tool in determining cyclical direction for any ticker or index. If you are long, and the 150-day MA is sloping higher, you are in good shape, if you are short, you are wrong. If you are short, and the 150-day MA is sloping down, you are in great shape, if you are long, you are wrong. The 150-day MA is at 3019 flatter than a newlywed's souffle, as Art Cashin would say. You can see how the 150 is sloping down in March and April (cyclical bear market) now flat. The bulls have to curl the 150-day MA higher to turn the stock market back into a cyclical bull. By definition, the moving average will start to move higher if price is above so watch that 3019-3020 level like a hawk. Above 3020, bulls rule. Between 2965 and 3020, the bulls and bears battle. Below 2965, carnage begins.


The ADX is at a paltry 13. That is pitiful for the big-time rally. You can see that the last strong trend in markets was the downside selloff during March. As April begins, and stocks rally, the move higher in equities has NOT been and is NOT a strong trend higher. Considering the euphoric rally right now, the ADX should be above 30 on its way to 40. It tells you the rally is phony-baloney and once again due to the Federal Reserve's Keynesian money-printing schemes that keep the crony capitalism system afloat.


The Aroon is at historic levels. The green line is pegged at one hundo maximum bullishness. The red line is smashed to zero also displaying maximum euphoric bullishness. The indicators cannot get anymore bullish. We are at the top of the mountain. Everyone is drunk as skunks off the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBOC booze, the four central banker horseman of the financial apocalypse, buying stocks with reckless abandon. Aunt Tillie, known for her frugality, just took her entire life savings to the broker in town, located next to the laundromat behind the bowling alley, and purchased AAPL and AMZN stock. The 25-year old financial manager told Tillie that the stocks are guaranteed to go up and she is diversified owning both Apple and Amazon. Tillie can hardly wait to tell the ladies at the Garden Club about her great investment decision. The Aroon has no choice but to move in a bearish direction with a potential negative cross in our futures.


Summing up the above mumbo-jumbo, and considering the rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market, equities should top out at anytime, any hour, any day forward, as soon as that RSI goes neggie d which may be today, tomorrow or Monday. Of course, a good news catalyst, such as happy vaccine talk or more central banker largess, will bump stocks higher delaying the top for a couple more days. Considering the ominous rising wedge, the collapse in stocks may be a doozy perhaps in the -5% to -10% range. Plan accordingly since time is short.


The melt-up in stocks in recent days is on the scary side because of the complacency. Do not be surprised if a flash crash event occurs in the coming days. That would get everyone's attention. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/30/20: The Aroon red line jumps up to 60. The Aroon green line falls to 96. Is a negative cross in the offing? Look at what happened after late February when the Aroon negative cross last occurred. Another hanging man prints on Friday, 5/29/20, although the tail should be a bit longer.

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Monthly Chart; Historic Long-Term Top Occurring in Tech Sector


The tech industry is about to have a religious experience. It's over. The COMPQ chart is topped-out on a long-term (think months and years) basis. Just think, all those years of upside joy will now be replaced with choppy, downward moving pain for months and years ahead. The Nasdaq Composite, and especially the Nazzy 100, are tech-laden indexes. Thus, if tech (think FAANG stocks and semiconductors) is doing well, the COMPQ and NDX move ever higher. The pop in biotech stocks recently also account for some of the recent two-month rally. Of course things work in reverse as well. A pull back in tech stocks will tank the COMPQ and NDX.

The chart is interesting since it likely calls the demise of the tech industry as it currently functions. There will be likely mass layoffs coming and all you smart programmers will begin to realize you will be working for less money. If you are a young person and your parents and others admire your knowledge and wiz-bang use of technology, and you plan to have a lucrative career in technology, it likely will not happen. It may happen but competition will be fierce.

Keystone is a chemical engineer among his many past career paths, and has watched the boom and bust cycles in the engineering business for the last five decades. During great economic times, the engineering projects are numerous and engineers, managers, computer-aided drafters, and the companies make lots of bucks. Then a recession hits every few years and whammo. Most folks are then in the unemployment line. Then the recovery begins, the engineering work ramps up again, and everyone becomes fat, dumb and happy again. Rinse and repeat. The tech industry will likely morph into a similar boom and bust cycle.

Once many tech workers are out of work, you will see wages in all tech fields drop. People become desperate and are willing to work for any amount just to have a job again. Workers do not ask for raises because they know the boss is going to tell them that he has 10 people knocking at his door daily that want a job. The tech industry will likely be far different than it is; the most notable development will likely be lower wages across the board. Thus, if you are basing your years ahead on big bucks in the tech industry, take another look at your numbers and perhaps decide on a modified path.

The COMPQ topped-out last year on a long-term basis with the rising red wedge, overbot conditions and universal negative divergence with the chart indicators. It was all over but the crying. And cry they did as price stabbed the 50-mth MA, now at the 7007 palindrome. The Federal Reserve began printing money like madmen in March. Fed Chairman Powell promises "limitless" support for the markets. Of course he does. He serves the wealthy class. The global central banker largess creates the big rally off the March low. More central bank goosing plain and simple. It's not rocket science. The central banks have sent stocks higher for over 11 years since former Fed Chairman Bernanke began dropping money from helicopters in March 2009.

There was no reason for the COMPQ to come back up to test the highs. For the technical reasons above, it was over. However, the central bankers are the market and will keep goosing stocks to protect the elite privileged class that own massive equity portfolios. Now that price is back up to a matching high area, the drastic negative divergence is striking. Price has no strength at all.

A spankdown is set to begin on the monthly basis which will drag the tech sector lower for months, and perhaps several years, ahead. You are witnessing the maturation of the tech industry. The green circle in 2016 shows the Tweezer Bottom created by the Federal Reserve right when the stock market was about to crash. Many of you long-time viewers of the blog will remember those times as Keystone described the action in real-time. The green line shows the power of the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers. It is impressive. They can goose markets at will and it is occurring again right now.

In September/October last year, the stock and money markets almost froze-up which would have been a catastrophe but the Fed stepped in to save the day again. You see the tail of the candlestick tap the 20-mth MA right when the Fed stepped in to save the day again. Going forward, the 50-mth MA support will be key since price bounced from there in 2011 and a couple months ago. Just think, price will revert back to the mean in the coming years which means that the COMPQ will print below that 200-mth MA, currently under 4K, at some point in the future.

The ADX shows that the rally is NOT a strong trend higher. The strong trends higher were in 2014 and 2015, back when Keystone called the May 2015 top, and from late 2017 into 2019. The ADX is down at 19. If the upside rally was strong, the ADX would be above 30 right now and closer to 40. Note the selling volume in March, very strong, compared to the buying volume the last two months.

The Aroon green line is overbot which will lead to a move lower at some point. The red line was oversold leading to an up move. Both indicators point to weakness ahead. If the negative cross occurs (red circle), it will be officially over for the tech sector. Make your decisions now since you do not have a lot of time. The XLK ETF, the tech sector, is the exact same analysis as the Nazzy above. You can bring on long-term shorts (monthly basis) in XLK going forward.

If you hold on to all those tech stocks such as the FAANG's and chips, good luck to you, you will regret it looking back a year from now perhaps with the tickers worth about 50% of what they are now. If you are long tech, it is prudent to begin scaling out completely and bringing on shorts for a very long-term move lower; you may have only 1 to 4 weeks to carry out this task before the real downside fun begins. After that, the COMPQ will be falling like a rock with tech industry workers realizing that their career path may not be all it is cracked up to be. Humorously, in a few years time, a plumber will likely make a higher salary than a programmer so consider a plunger for a career path instead of a keyboard. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYMO NYSE McClellan Oscillator and NYA NYSE Composite Daily Charts



The NYMO, McClellan Oscillator, warns that the stock market will top out in the near-term when it moves above +60 and tells you of a near-term bottom at hand below -60.The green circle is the March bottom and the red circles are the tops. What do you think will happen?

The prior four selloffs were 660 points, 490, 610 and 530 points for an average of 572 points. Since complacency and lack of fear is rampant in markets, which was not the case for the four prior tops, the drop would be expected to be greater. If 572 points is taken off the 11603, that is a -5% pullback. Thus, stocks will likely peak-out at any time now and drop from -5% to -10%, so you have to decide if you are willing to endure this pending pain if long.

The stock market continues to be propped up by ongoing global central banker money-printing for over 11 years. The central bankers are the market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:56 AM EST on Thursday, 5/28/20: The NYMO pops to 81.58 on yesterday's rally. The near-term top is so close you can smell it. Can you smell It?

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Negative Divergence Developing


The low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios signal rampant complacency and lack of fear in markets. Thus, a near-term stock market top is expected at any time, any day ahead. The only thing that can delay the top is happy news such as more central banker money printing, fiscal stimulus or vaccine hype. Today it is the latter, with another pharma company touting success with a vaccine for coronavirus (COVID-19). Also, US citizens were out and about during the holiday weekend creating a positive vibe, many thumbing their nose at the mask rules. President Trump refuses to wear a mouth diaper so many people are following his lead. Most of all, the central banker largess is what keeps those traders and investors buying stocks. Easy money, baby, it makes the world go 'round.  S&P futures are up +54 points reminiscent of the pop last Monday after that vaccine hype.

Since complacency is rampant, and a top is at hand any time forward, any hour or any day ahead, the SPX 2-hour chart is helpful in identifying the top. The chart went into negative divergence but note the sliver of strength remaining in the MACD line. The MACD line is negatively diverged over the few-week period but for the last couple days (few hours of trading), it has that tiny bit of fumes left in the gas tank to create that late Friday buoyancy.

If the vaccine news did not hit, the chart was pretty much cooked and the top would have occurred today. Since the S&P 500 is on tap to pop about 50 points when it opens for trading in five hours, that will put price over 3K (green dot).

SPX 2989 is an extremely important number for all the marbles. Bulls will win going forward if the SPX moves above and remains above 2989. Bears will dominate the stock market for the rest of the year as long as the S&P 500 remains below 2989.

On the pop this Tuesday morning, the chart above will of course print a higher high so you will begin looking for universal neggie d so you know when the top is in. Today can be a pop and drop, or a gap and crap if you will, or it may take a few hours or day or two to reset the top. When price prints the higher high simply watch the RSI, MACD, histogram and money flow to negatively diverge and that is the top. A good strategy going forward, considering the complacency and lack of fear in markets, is to short the rallies. Take advantage of this mornings pop and if you wanted to sell some stocks do not hesitate; ditch the longs today and bring on shorts.

The ADX shows the trendless market unable to move above the high 20's or 30 level so there is not a strong directional trend in equities currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, May 25, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8





By K E Stone

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected over 5.4 million people around the world murdering over 344,000 souls. That is astounding. Hundreds of thousands of people lay dead on the planet at the hand of China’s Wuhan virus. 2.3 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened over 1.666 million Americans (0.52% of the 330 million US population) murdering 98,683 United States citizens (almost 100K). 447K have recovered.

1 in every 192 Americans are sickened by Wuhan’s COVID-19. One-third of the world’s coronavirus cases (almost 33%) and 30% of the total deaths are in the United States but America is only 4.2% of the world’s population. China knowingly unleashed horror and mayhem on the world. From a war perspective, coronavirus is an ideal bioweapon capable of killing-off and incapacitating a society or country without destroying the infrastructure.

Brazil, Chile, Peru, Columbia and other Latin American nations are experiencing out-of-control outbreaks just as Keystone forecasted in the prior Article 7. Brazil is number two in COVID-19 cases only behind the United States. Russia is the third worst nation infected.

The United States is at the point where an assessment can be made about the success, or lack thereof, in restarting the US economy. Folks are traveling to the beaches on this Memorial Day weekend but overall people are not venturing out as expected. Most folks choose to stay sheltered in place instead of risking infection. Fear has infiltrated many human minds and will be difficult to remove. This is extremely bad news for the economy going forward. Businesses will lose hope. Restaurants cannot survive only serving 25% of their customers; they will have to close the doors. Hotels cannot remain open at 5% or 10% occupancy rates. The commercial real estate industry is in serious trouble.

The US stock market, however, runs ever higher continuing to enjoy buoyancy and elevated prices after the March bottom. Traders and investors have bet the farm on the FAANG stocks (Facebook (FB); Apple (AAPL); Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (Alphabet; GOOGL)). The tech sector is on fire with investors buying chips (semiconductors) with both hands. The reason the stock market runs higher is the same as the last 11 years; central banker Keynesian money-printing. The financial system is a complete joke. Capitalism only exists in theoretical text books. America is best described as a faux free market crony capitalism system that is in its last years. Capitalism fails like all other ism’s in history because of human greed and non-transparency. It’s not rocket science.

The Federal Reserve and other global central bankers such as the BOJ (Bank of Japan), ECB (European Central Bank) and PBOC (People’s Bank of China) are printing money like madmen. The world is awash in liquidity ever since former Fed Chairman Bernanke implemented QE 1 in March 2009 to save the stock market and protect the elite class that own huge equity portfolios. These soulless central bankers are the four financial horsemen of the global financial apocalypse. Their money-printing schemes only serve to support markets for a few years, always further enriching the already-wealthy, and then end in collapse.

Do not believe the talking heads that say the economy was in great shape before the virus hit. The Fed touts this line; it is simply untrue. The economic data was mixed at best and the only reason there were good data points is that the Fed was goosing markets with easy money since September/October 2019 when the American financial system almost stealthily crashed. The average person is unaware of all these financial shenanigans taking place at the world's exchanges. The thesis about a sharp snap-back in the US economy is rubbish. The economy was not that strong before covid hit.

Folks better take the coming economic downturn serious and hope it is not Great Depression redux, which it likely is. The virus situation rhymes with the Dustbowl days. Many of you must wake up to the fact that your job is gonzo. You will never set foot in that facility again, where you used to work, no matter how much you tell yourself you will. Your time there is done. Get on with your next direction the sooner the better. There are likely many difficult years ahead.

The higher rate of infections and deaths among the black and Latino communities continues. Poorer folks, in general, are falling to covid more than wealthy folks. Disadvantaged communities live in closer quarters with more family members under one roof thereby increasing chances for infections. Ethnic communities tend to eat less expensive food which is higher in sugars and salts to improve taste. Over many years, the lack of proper nutrition leads to many ailments such as diabetes and heart disease that are the death nails for the patients that then contracts covid. Drugs and alcohol are also problems in run-down communities although do not paint all disadvantaged people with such a negative brush.

The working poor in America are the noblest and greatest people that the country has to offer. Imagine knowing that your life is extremely tough and difficult each day, worrying about real things such as where to live or if you will eat, and never knowing if you will be able to pay all the bills by the end of the month, but you rise each day and never miss a day of work no matter how menial the job or how low the pay or how ignorant people treat you. If your children are looking for heroes in this sick world, steer them away from the corrupt dirtbag politicians, greedy bankers and executives, steroid-using overpaid athletes and gold-chain hip-hopper’s and instead educate them on what it means to be a noble human being like the working poor. America used to think this way; it does not anymore.

The black and Latino communities are hit particularly hard by coronavirus. Let’s take a look at the math behind the higher rates of infections within these groups as opposed to the white and Asian groups. The Native Americans, such as Navajo Nation, are also impacted worse by the coronavirus but let’s set this aside for the following analysis (which in no way deemphasizes the tragedy currently occurring within the Native American population).

From the top, the US has 330 million people. 1.7 million are infected with COVID-19. This equates to an infection rate of 0.52% which means that 1 in every 192 US citizens have contracted coronavirus; let’s call it 1 in 200 Americans to make it easy to understand. Those are pretty good odds that you will not contract the virus, especially if young and healthy, and explains some of the cavalier attitudes. Let’s dive deeper.

In the United States, 60% of the population is white, 13% black, 18% Latino, 6% Asian and 3% Native American and other. Interestingly, for decades, the blacks were the major minority in America but over the last couple decades, the Latinos have clearly taken the lead. Grouping the blacks and Latinos together for this analysis is 31% and the white and others are 69%. The blacks and Latinos are infected with COVID-19 at about twice the infection rate compared to whites for some of the reasons listed above. Also, poor folks tend to not have health insurance and will delay seeking medical treatment as long as possible making recovery more lengthy and difficult.

Thus, if the black/Latino group suffers twice the infections, that means 0.6 million, or 600,000 infections are attributable to the white grouping and 1.1 million cases are assigned to the black/Latino group. There are 330 million people in the US so the 69% that are the white/Asian/other grouping accounts for 227 million folks and the 31% black/Latino population is 102 million people.

Thus, for the white grouping of 227 million people, 600,000 people are infected for an infection rate of 0.26%, or 1 in 378 people; call it 1 in 400 people to make it easy.

For the black/Latino grouping of 102 million people, 1.1 million people are infected for an infection rate of 1.1%, or 1 in 92 people; call it 1 in 90 people to make it easy. The results are striking and make perfect sense. The data verifies the ongoing coronavirus zeitgeist.

For the white grouping, there is about a 1 in 400 chance of getting infected by covid. This is why many white folks are less concerned about covid such as President Trump and his white entourage, the elite class that are mainly white, the upper middle class mainly white, the Midwest states and many republican-led states. Mainly white protestors in states such as Michigan (sans Detroit) are demanding the states reopen their economies since they do not see the impact of the virus that other ethnic Americans see. Of course they do not if only 1 in 400 in their main white ethic grouping are sick. None of their family members, relatives or neighbors have the virus, so they adopt Alfred E Neuman’s attitude and not worry. If something has not hit home, it does not seem like a big deal. For the whites, the coronavirus seems more like an inconvenience.

For the black and Latino communities, however, the data is sad. A stunning 1 in 90 people in these communities are sick with covid. This means that the folks and families within these ethnic groups all know someone that has contracted coronavirus. Chances are that an uncle, aunt, grandma or even cousin Alejandro, that huffs and puffs each time he walks up that half-flight of stairs to the back door of Mama Maria’s kitchen, has been stricken by coronavirus . If you ask DeShawn, Tyrone and Jazmine, or, Jose, Juan and Lucia, if they know anyone sick with the virus, all will say yes in unison. If you ask Jack, Cody, Emily and Abigail, most will say no and wonder what all this daily virus fuss is all about.

Perceptions matter. Generally, if you are white or Asian, you are viewing the virus saga as a temporary hitch in the stock and job market’s giddy-up and all will be fine in a few weeks. After all, you do not know anyone that has gotten sick. If you are a black or Latino brother or sister, however, the coronavirus hits home with either a family member, a relative, or a neighbor that you know is sick with the illness. You worry that you may become sick since you hear about and know others that are in the hospital and at the same time you lost your job and are unable to find another. Put yourself in other people’s shoes sometimes and you may begin to feel what they feel.

The bad fortune bestowed on the blacks and Latinos with the higher infection rates will only exacerbate the coming class war in the US. The elite class has no worries; most own property on exotic islands where they can jet to an escape at any time. They already raped America for all its worth over the last five decades so there is not much left on the plate anymore anyway. Once a few initial events occur where the wealthy in America are verbally and physically attacked (hopefully not, but it seems inevitable), that will open the floodgates to violent social unrest and a multi-year class war rich versus poor. The lower middle class, with pitchforks and torches in hand, that used to be middle class with high aspirations two and three decades ago, have given up hope and realize the rigged crony capitalism system will always keep them low on the totem pole. The huddled masses figure it is better to go with a new system since they have been screwed over multi-generationally by the current system.

In recent years, young folks (under 35 years old) touted how they were all about experiences. Many millennials prefer to live in apartments because little time is spent there; these young hipsters are always on the move, and traveling, and accumulating those experiences. They shunned saving up for a down payment on a house; that is what the old generation did. How’s all that working out for you now?

Do any of you young folks wish you had the money back from all those trips? If you had purchased a house instead of taking all those trips and living the high-life, you would be sheltered in place in your own kingdom right now, where you can walk outside and enjoy your own property and have your own space to breathe. Alas, instead you are confined to an apartment jail cell. If you feel like a caged animal in a city apartment, there is good reason for that; you are.

Going forward, it is likely that millennials and other young folks may be thinking more about saving for a down payment on a house rather than those expensive experiences that are already long forgotten. When inflation ramps higher in future years (there is likely a year or two of deflation remaining in the near term) owning material assets will be important. You cannot sell those rarely-viewed pictures of your old travel experiences collecting dust in an unnamed computer folder but you can sell a house, a car, stocks, bonds, guns, jewelry and other physical assets for money if times become desperate.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 8 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This eighth article is published on Sunday, 5/24/20, and the next article, number eight in the series, is tentatively slated for publishing on Wednesday, 6/3/20.








As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Arkansas and North Carolina charts are provided by their state data bases and annotated by Keystone.

TKSCIRM forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. Major trouble is ahead when the ‘number of new coronavirus cases are increasing’ especially through the initial exponential expansion phase. The ‘daily new virus cases’ are typically shown in a bar chart format. The first thing to watch for with the Keystone Model is ‘when the daily new cases begin leveling-off typically into a choppy sideways move’. It is key that the ‘new cases level off and begin drifting sideways lower since this will eventually create the top in the active cases curve which is the bell curve’.

The active case curve represents the maximum strain on the medical personnel and the hope for all countries is that this curve flattens out and then rolls over to the downside (the top of the bell chart pattern forms and the virus cases begin dropping forming the right side of the bell). Thus, the two key charts are the new case barchart and the active case bell curve.

Attention! The term “flattening the curve” specifically references the active case bell curve and not the new cases chart.

The media, the public and even officials on television, that are supposed to know what they are talking about, are misusing the terms. All 50 states are open for business but many have not flattened the active cases curve. The peak of the active case bell curve represents the maximum strain on the healthcare facilities and medical personnel and the top is not known until it happens. The Keystone Model estimates this topping-out day when the flattening of the curve begins.

The flattening of the curve was very important two and three months ago but states, and countries, are reopening economies anyway without the curve flattening. Perhaps officials realize they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. The markets and economy will tank if businesses cannot reopen but as they reopen, and people interact, a second wave of virus infections may hit that will sink the economic ship. Choose your poison.

About two to two and one-half weeks have passed since states started reopening economies. Interestingly, the betting money would have expected a larger spike in cases due to the renewed close interaction of humans, however, this is not generally occurring, so far. People are generally following social distancing guidelines and being respectful of one another. In addition, many folks are simply staying home and choosing not to go out. So the worry was that too many folks would come out too quickly creating a spike in cases leading to trouble, or, that the lockdown would be extended killing the economy through inactivity.

As it turns out, what may sink the economic ship, is that people are now too fearful and may not want to go out to spend discretionary money again. So the economies are open exposing the workers and others to the virus but the patrons are not coming back. Also, there is a second wave spike now occurring in Arkansas and North Carolina; the virus data is jumping higher in these states.

TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled. If the country, region or state was well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak.

South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Israel, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China were well-prepared and the active case curve flattened quickly. These nations and regions have the best pandemic plans and testing protocols and reached their Active Case Peak Dates, on average, only 11 days after the New Case Peak Date. These countries with extensive testing programs were able to identify and quarantine infected individuals quickly leading to a faster resolution of the pandemic in that region.

Conversely, countries less prepared, and the states that were also not well prepared, take 28 days or almost three times longer, past the New Case Peak Date, as per the Keystone Model, for the active case bell curve to peak. This is disturbing since President Trump’s criteria for reopening the economy is 14 days past the new case peak date. So Trump’s original concern about flattening the curve is tossed out the window over the new criteria which is 14 days of falling new cases.

The active cases chart for America just peaked on 5/21/20 as the Keystone Model predicted (28 days after the peak in new cases). The curve has finally flattened for the US which is fantastic news but it must remain this way and not receive any more moves higher. Give it a few days to make sure. Medical workers rejoice because it appears the worst is over (as long as the active cases curve does not move higher again). The bell curve is flattening and the sharp downward move in active cases will be coming in a week or two which represents the right side of the bell pattern. The only fly in the ointment would be if a spike in cases occurs (a la Arkansas and North Carolina) because folks are out and about comingling again.

Note that the active case bell curve begins flattening about 28 days after the new case chart peaks. Trump’s edict is to restart your economy after 14 days of lower new cases. Thus, Donnie is betting that starting the economy two weeks before the active cases bell curve begins to flatten is the correct approach for handling the virus situation going forward.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model identifies the New Case Peak Date (peak in new infections), then adds 11 days, if a country or region is well-prepared for a pandemic, to arrive at its active cases peak date which flattens the curve. For countries and regions not well prepared, 28 days are added to the New Case Peak Date to arrive at the projected Active Case Peak Date where the curve will begin flattening.

The active case bell curves have peaked, flattened and rolled over or are rolling over for the following nations that are on their way to better days ahead (barring a second wave).

China (Active Case Peak Date 2/17/20) (13 days after New Case Peak Date) (data is suspect)
South Korea (Active Case Peak Date 3/11/20) (8 days)
Switzerland (Active Case Peak Date 3/21/20) (11 days)
Austria (Active Case Peak Date 4/3/20) (8 days)
Australia (Active Case Peak Date 4/4/20) (13 days)
Germany (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (10 days)
Taiwan (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (17 days)
Hong Kong (Active Case Peak Date 4/7/20) (9 days)
Hungary (Active Case Peak Date 5/4/20) (24 days)
Israel (Active Case Peak Date 4/16/20) (14 days)
Italy (Active Case Peak Date 4/19/20) (30 days)
Ireland (Active Case Peak Date 4/20/20) (10 days)
Turkey (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (13 days)
Spain (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (29 days)
France (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (26 days)
Japan (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (18 days)
Portugal (Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (31 days)
Singapore (Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (23 days)
United States (Active Case Peak Date 5/21/20) (28 days)

The active case bell curves have not peaked for the following nations that remain mired in the coronavirus quagmire.

Philippines (Asia) (data is suspect and unreliable)
3/31/20 New Case Peak Date
4/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

UK (Europe) (data is suspect and unreliable)
4/10/20 New Case Peak Date
5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher


Netherlands (Europe)
4/10/20 New Case Peak Date
5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

Belgium (Europe)
4/15/20 New Case Peak Date
5/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

Sweden (North Europe)
4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection days on 4/8/20 and 4/30/20 but 4/24/20 is worse)
5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher


Ecuador (South America) (Latin America is in COVID-19 Hell)
4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/10/20 date)
5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

The Philippines data is untrustworthy. Dictator Duterte has closed off the media. Philippines is a Hell-hole right now. The UK data is also suspect for inconsistencies. Humorously, the sympathy factor for Prime Minister Johnson, who almost died of covid, has worn off and more Brit’s are calling for accountability from Boris. Italy, France, Spain and Portugal had a tough go of it but their active case curves have flattened and are rolling over. However, the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden all display rising active cases curves. These nations have not yet found a path out of the covid woods. Belgium, and Canada below, were both displaying flat active case curves but new cases increased and the active case curves started moving higher again nullifying the temporary joy in these nations. The virus is sticky in Europe.

Sweden and Ecuador were forecasted to top-out on their active cases curves this weekend so give it a few days. Latin America, South Asia and Africa are in COVID-19 Hell right now. Note that the projected dates for the peaks in the active cases curves below are in June. The southern hemisphere of Mother Earth is going into wintertime as the northern hemisphere proceeds into summertime. The Wuhan virus would be expected to spread quicker in the southern hemisphere during the cooler conditions so South America and Africa are screwed. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls.

Canada (North America)
5/3/20 New Case Peak Date
5/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

Nigeria (African continent faces an epic human tragedy)
5/8/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)
6/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Russia (Eastern Europe and North Asia)
5/11/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)
6/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

Poland (Europe)
5/12/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)
6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher

Pakistan (South Asia)
5/13/20 New Case Peak Date
6/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Brazil (South America)
5/20/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/6/20 date)
6/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Kenya (Africa)
5/21/20 New Case Peak Date
6/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Indonesia (Southeast Asia)
5/21/20 New Case Peak Date (4/12/20, 4/14/20, 4/17/20, 4/28/20, 5/1/20, 5/13/20 huge days)
6/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Peru (South America)
5/21/20 New Case Peak Date (4/13/20, 4/25/20, 5/13/20 big days)
6/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bolivia (South America)
5/21/20 New Case Peak Date
6/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Chile (South America)
5/22/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 5/13/20 date)
6/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Argentina (South America)
5/22/20 New Case Peak Date
6/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Mexico (North America)
5/22/20 New Case Peak Date (5/8/20 and 5/13/20 big days)
6/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Egypt (North Africa)
5/22/20 New Case Peak Date
6/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Honduras (Central America)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Columbia (South America)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

India (South Asia)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 5/10/20 date)
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bangladesh (South Asia)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date


South Africa (African continent faces an epic human tragedy)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date (5/13/20, 5/17/20, 5/21/20 big days)
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Latin and Central America is in COVID-19 Hell as indicated with Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia and Honduras. Mexico remains in the virus soup. South Asia and Asia proper are in the coronavirus pickle barrel as shown with Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Africa is a hot spot as verified with Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa. Russia and Poland are virus trouble spots in Europe and Eastern Asia.

For the states that have flattened their active cases bell curve chart recently, the top in the active cases chart occurs an average of 28 days beyond the peak date in new cases, as per the Keystone Model.

Louisiana; New Case Peak Date 4/2/20; Active Case (which indicates the maximum strain on the healthcare system) Peak Date 4/23/20; 21 days
New Jersey; New Case Peak Date 4/3/20 but 4/16/20 also a peak; Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20; 47 and 34 days
Massachusetts; New Case Peak Date 4/24/20; Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20; 26 days
Pennsylvania; New Case Peak Date 4/24/20; Active Case Peak Date 5/21/20; 27 days

Many states are experiencing ever rising active case charts so the strain on the healthcare system increases each day for these individual states. America’s active case chart has peaked (if it holds) and will finally flatten but the country is by no means out of the coronavirus woods as yet. All 50 states are in various stages of reopening their economies. Arkansas and North Carolina are blown out of the water over the last few days starting to feel a second wave impact of the virus. Both states see a pop in new cases perhaps due to relaxing the lockdown rules prematurely allowing covid to then spread more easily. These two states and California and Texas are not expected to peak-out on their active cases bell curve until June which means their medical facilities and personnel will remain under strain.

Applying the 28 days in the Keystone Model to arrive at the peak in active cases, for the US states, shows that New York, Florida and Ohio are past their projected dates but still trying to flatten the curve. Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are battling to exit the virus grip. Time will tell.

New York; New Case Peak Date 4/15/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/13/20 but chart continues higher
Florida; New Case Peak Date 4/17/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/15/20 but chart continues higher
Ohio; New Case Peak Date 4/19/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/17/20 but chart continues higher
Washington (state); New Case Peak Date 5/1/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/29/20
California; New Case Peak Date 5/9/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/6/20
Texas; New Case Peak Date 5/15/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/12/20
Arkansas; New Case Peak Date 5/20/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/17/20
North Carolina; New Case Peak Date 5/23/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/20/20

Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Georgia, Connecticut, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado are states with higher numbers of infections than other states but the data and charts available do not allow for proper analysis.

As per the Keystone Model, for any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak first and then add 28 days to that New Case Peak Date to project when the top of the bell curve, and maximum strain on healthcare facilities, will occur, at the Active Cases Peak Date.

On Sunday evening, 5/17/20, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell appears on the 60 Minutes television news show. Powell proclaims that there is limitless availability of tools. The stock market will love the easy money Keynesian talk. The central bankers are one-trick ponies.

On Monday morning, 5/18/20, the Dow Jones Industrials Index explodes 1,000 points higher on the Fed’s promise for more easy money. Like the last 11 years, stocks jump higher as the Fed and other global central bankers promise to continue printing money forever. The free money is used to buy assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate… No one knows what any asset is truly worth anymore due to over one decade of central banker intervention.

President Trump surprises America saying he is taking hydroxychloroquine. This is the malaria drug that, in an initial limited study, shows promise in treating patients with early onset of the coronavirus. One-half of the small sample size recovered a few days faster than those that did not take the drug. Trump proclaims that hydroxychloroquine is very safe, however, studies show a direct link to heart problems, especially for those that have potential heart disease, like Trump. Nonetheless, King Donnie decrees that hydroxychloroquine is safe and no worry to take and says he has been taking a pill once per day for a couple weeks (that is 14 consecutive days).

In true Trumpian fashion, Donnie says he looked forward to seeing the expressions on people’s faces when he would announce that he is taking the drug (this vignette provides great insight into his mental thinking). The reality television show presidency is in full swing. Tune in tomorrow to see if the president continues taking hydroxychloroquine, or not. Tune in anyway since Donnie always puts on a good show daily. Comically, Trump is taking the drug for prophylaxis (disease prevention) but people associate this word and prophylactic with taking a treatment through the butt and assume Donnie is bending over each day exposing his wrinkled orange behind. That is funny.

This silliness is hallmark behavior of the bread and circus days. Every day and everything is entertainment like the days of ancient Rome; politics, government, jobs, events, life. This behavior is expected at the end of long-term cycles such as the Kondratieff Cycle. Enjoy the fun and games and daily entertainment show because what comes next is recessions, depressions, war.

On Tuesday, 5/19/20, the number of US coronavirus cases top 1.5 million another grim milestone. From the Trump twisted logic perspective, he calls the 1.5 million COVID-19 cases “a badge of honor.” What? “I view it as a badge of honor, really, it’s a badge of honor.” About 11.8 million tests have been performed. During the last one to three-month period, the testing yielded from 30% to 50% positive cases (people are infected with coronavirus). This creates some of the hype and hysteria around the situation. All states are now showing 20% or lower positives and a few states in single digits. Since the testing program was screwed-up from the get-go, and the tests were vehemently rationed, only the sickest of patients received tests, thus, the percentage of positive cases were very high. Once the testing program is finally getting to where it should be, the percentage of positive cases are coming down. This is why Trump claims a badge of honor. People continue becoming sick and infected albeit at a slower rate.

The COVID-19 timeline is rhyming with the Spanish Flu outbreak. Both pandemics began around March. During the Spanish Flu days, a lull period came into play, like now, where people refused to be locked up in their homes. The population throws caution to the wind and begins interacting again not worried about the consequences. After the lull period, the second wave began which was worse than the first.

Donnie is the consummate showman a carnival barker of the tallest order. Trump says the high number of cases are a “great tribute to the testing.” The function of this statement is to weave the narrative that the US testing program is in full swing and the best in the world. The testing is coming up to speed, finally, after over two months of Trump dragging his feet while at the same time repeating the narrative that “anyone that wants a test can have a test.” It has been a comical two-month lie.

Trump keeps repeating the lie about testing because when the tests are ramped-up fully he will reach back and say, see, I told all of you that the testing program was fine and the best in the world. Then he will say all those detractors over the last two months were wrong and reporting “fake news.” Don’t you love the country for what it has become? Donnie will then rewrite the entire narrative around testing and boast during the campaign that no one can handle testing better than his orange head.

As of this writing, any American that wants a test still cannot receive a test. First, you must jump through hoops talking to doctors or nurse practitioners that then deem you as qualified, or not, for a test. These protocols are in place because of test rationing due to an ongoing shortage of tests. The medical folks determine who receives a test and who does not as Trump lies each day telling you to your face that you can get a test anytime if you want one. This is the confusing and chaotic America.

It gets better. The CDC now says the data on testing is problematic. The number of tests assigned to testing for the virus versus testing for antibodies is in disarray now introducing new potential errors in providing direction to the public.

The new and main worry on testing is accuracy. The quick Abbott test was exposed as producing as many as 1 in 8 false negatives (people were told they were not infected but they were). Other data is worse but of course Abbott defends its test and blames the people performing the procedure.

Big pharma is making big bucks off the COVID-19 nightmare. Think about it. Big pharma is released from liability by the US government and given a limitless budget to spend. King Donnie bestows a $1.2 billion bag of money to AstraZeneca to fast-track a virus vaccine. What a racket. How many friends of Donnie own AZN stock that will happily forward some more cash to his reelection campaign on the news? One hand washes the other in crony capitalism. Pharma is making huge profits to produce drugs to combat coronavirus but if the drugs prove unsafe, big pharma cannot be sued for damages. Isn’t America great (for the wealthy elite class) and getting greater every day?

On Wednesday, 5/20/20, President Trump is blaming President Xi for the global pandemic. Trump says, “China’s disinformation and propaganda attack on the US and Europe is a disgrace…it all comes from the top.” US Senate passes a bill to scrutinize Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. American money is backing and pushing the communist companies to the top of the world stage. The greedy elite class in America only cares about using the crony capitalism system to boost their stock portfolios.

On Thursday, 5/21/20, the global coronavirus cases top 5 million another grim milestone. The WHO says the number of new COVID-19 cases jump over 100K in the last day. The number of deaths in the United States tops 95K on its way to 100K.

600 doctors sign a petition that says Americans can go back to work. Of course they do. Dollars to doughnuts they are all republicans touting the Republican Tribe’s talking points. Of course they are. Give it a few days and the democrats will release a list with 700 doctors that say the opposite. No wonder Americans continue to abandon and avoid the stink of these two corrupt political tribes, the demopublicans and republocrats, in favor of being independent.

All 50 states in America have reopened their economies to one degree or another and most citizens are donning masks when out in public. The women would not understand that men are more averse to wearing ‘mouth diapers’. President Trump’s face mask drama continues. The mask side plot occurring during the reality television show presidency involves King Donnie’s refusal to wear a mask because he does not want to be photographed. Vanity controls this Whitehouse showman; image is everything to Trump. The president does not want to be seen donning a mouth diaper although it is an ideal catch basket for his verbal diarrhea each day.

In general, some men view wearing a mask as a sign of weakness and submissiveness. The privileged class do not have to wear masks since they perceive themselves as smarter, cleaner and better humans than the great unwashed huddled masses that crawl around on the ground below them each day.

The press confronts the president for not wearing a mask at a visit to the Ford plant. Trump quickly responds saying he had it on in the back area; the same thing he said two prior times at other locations. Hilariously, Trump is holding his blue mouth diaper, that displays the imprinted presidential seal, in his small hands saying it is a “nice mask,” and a quality mask, but he is not putting it on. It is assumed that the president did not wear a mask at all at the plant but comically, a photo is released of President Trump wearing the blue mask. Yes, his worst fears are realized. Trump looks like an idiot in a mask just like the rest of the population. Trump did have a mask on in the Ford plant which is mandatory. Due to Donnie’s daily spewing of half-truth’s and lies, one simply assumed he did not wear a mask at all but he actually did.

The Whitehouse does not comment on the photograph of Trump wearing a face mask. It appears that it may have been taken by a smartphone perhaps by an employee. The president is exposed wearing his blue cloth mouth diaper. It is only funny and worthy of laughter since Trump fought wearing a mask every step of the way while telling other Americans they have to wear a mask. What silly stuff but it is the bread and circus days after all.

The coronavirus tragedy has morphed into a red state (republicans) versus blue state (democrats) baby game. If you are for Trump, a conservative, a republican, you are against masks and want all facets of the economy to open immediately. If you are against Trump, a liberal, a democrat, you champion the use of masks and want the economy to open at a slower and more cautious and measured pace. The independents shake their heads in disgust at the two corrupt political parties.

Trump attacks democrat governors, the Michigan governor is a favorite target since the president is going to need Michigan to win reelection, but they are doing the same things as the republican governors. Mail-in voting is a right but Trump is criticizing any state providing ballots and information because he believes mail-in voting is fraught with fraud and only benefits democrats (data does not support this claim). Trump is a divisive petty man just like former President Obama; narcissism and inflated self-worth’s are traits of all the presidents.

The president is asked about the planning for a potential second coronavirus wave. Trump proclaims, “We will put out the fires….. but we are not closing the country.” The president is all-in at restarting the economy. If a second virus wave hits it is all due to his actions at reopening the economy and his reelection bid will suffer. If the virus cases remain in check, and that US active cases bell curve continues to flatten and then roll over in a week or two, Trump will have bragging rights for a good decision to restart the economy and his path to reelection will be easier.

Trump is taking China to task more each day. Donnie bragged for over three years that “Xi is my friend” but that does not appear the case anymore. Trump needs people to blame and China is number one, as it should be. The president was touting the greatest of Dictator Xi at handling the virus situation well into March less than two months ago. That changed fast. With Donnie, if you can do something for him or cover his tracks, you are the greatest person and your intelligent is vast but if you cross him, do not do what he asks, disagree with him or are otherwise unwilling to get involved in his daily reality television show, he will call you a piece of garbage and trash and try to destroy your career. It is fun to watch, it’s entertainment, but not constructive for the nation.

The filthy communist China leadership meets for the National People’s Congress (NPC) that decides the economic and government plan forward. Trump says Xi is behind a propaganda attack against the US and Europe. The Chinese foreign minister argues that US leadership is sending the US and China into a cold war. Screw China. They purposely unleashed a bioweapon on the world. Remember, since few read history books anymore, cold wars lead to shooting wars.

Studies are showing that about 95% of the over 325K deaths in the world would not have occurred if China would have prevented people flying out of Wuhan. China screwed the world no doubt about it and continue the cover-up. Humorously, China says they will cooperate with an international investigation and allow access to areas but not now (they are still destroying the evidence). The hashtag #ChinaLiedPeopleDied remains popular around the world. China needs to make the world whole for their dastardly virus deed. The communist bastards must be held accountable by a consortium of all other nations on earth.

NIH Doctor Birx says infections and deaths are declining. The US active cases bell curve is finally flattening over the last three days. The infections are still increasing albeit at a slower rate. The strain on America’s healthcare workers will lessen now that the active cases bell curve is flattening and lessen noticeably in a week or two. Trump’s gamble on restarting the economy may pay off; the next few days are critical. One-third of the deaths in America are at nursing homes.

Trump targets the CDC and Dr Redfield for screwing-up testing which created a delay and this is what Trump will blame if people ask him why testing took so long. The CDC is the gang that could not shoot straight the latest problem is their data reporting on testing which appears to contain errors. America is the land of mediocrity. Decades ago all work was performed at an excellent level; not anymore, middling and mediocre is good enough nowadays for the US.

The so-called brilliant scientists and doctors, perhaps clueless is a better word?, now proclaim that the virus does not spread from hard surfaces or animals. There is great fear about receiving packages or interacting with Whiskers, the family cat that spends time outside, but all that worry was needless. Folks are carrying around their little bottles of hand sanitizer but are realizing that the alcohol content may explode in a hot car when hit directly by sunlight.

American rights are stripped away like after 911 with the passage of the Patriot Act which was simply an excuse for the CIA, FBI, NSA and other agencies to spy on Americans with or without due cause. For this ongoing virus fiasco, politicians now decide which business will live and which will die. They decree that Wal-Mart as an essential business, where many hundreds of people pass through a store daily, picking up and putting down the China-made items, while they will not permit the Ma and Pa store on main street, that has limited customers and can more easily administer to individual safety and consumer needs, to open. Crony capitalism rules the US even in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The small businesses are crushed while the large companies are boosted higher. Do you understand the way that crony capitalism works in America? Fortunately, the end of crony capitalism is at hand and the US will morph into a fairer government over the coming years that provides opportunities for the poor and disadvantaged instead of the elite class using a rigged system to rape America and screw the huddled masses. All ism’s throughout history do not last beyond 200 to 250 years so the US is overdue.

China lowers the boom on Hong Kong passing legislation to permanently pull the region under mainland communist rule. The one-country, two-systems, policy was always a joke. Bend over Hong Kong. The Beijing communist leadership wants you to kneel and kiss their feet. They have the guns so they make the rules. Hong Kong loses.

On Saturday, 5/23/20, President Trump visits one of his golf clubs. In true baby fashion, he and his spokespeople refuse to say whether Donnie is golfing today. There is no need to since he is filmed riding in a car donning a polo shirt and his lucky golf cap so King Donnie is golfing as the total deaths in America approach 100,000 people. At the same time, the New York Times devotes the front page of the paper to honoring the victims of coronavirus which is seriously absent in the United States. 1,000 names are listed with short obituaries and there are 100 times those deaths and stories. Meanwhile, Trump yells, “Fore” off the fifth tee.

Trump has difficulty showing empathy and compassion which is a problem since the leader of the country has to create that vibe of respect for those that have fallen to COVID-19. But, more importantly in Donnie’s mind, he does not want sad and negative news on the wires with his reelection only 21 weeks away; he wants happy talk instead like reopening the economy. Hey, those 100K people were mostly old sick folks anyway.

Trump’s latest soap box comment is on reopening the houses of worship. He says America “needs Prayer’ and he is correct about that. Once the coronavirus situation became muddled, chaotic and confusing, Trump dumped the responsibility for the matter onto the states and their governors. That way Donnie can criticize and blame the states for the virus mess while he says everything he has done has enormously helped all of mankind. You know the Donnie schtick by now.

King Donnie decrees that all houses of worship are “essential” and must immediately reopen. Trump proclaims that if a governor does not heed his edict, he will step in and “override” the situation. Trump has no legal authority to override the states; it is simply more of Donnie’s blowhard bluster. Humorously, both republican and democrat governors ignore the president’s decree. Obviously, they have states to run which are currently a mess and there is no time for baby games.

Several severe COVID-19 outbreaks occurred over the last couple months after church congregations gathered to celebrate mass. The states are not anxious to create new covid hotspots at churches. In addition, US religious leaders such as rabbi’s, priests, ministers, etc…, are urging caution rather than welcoming the president’s latest proclamation. It is difficult to take Donnie seriously when he says open the churches on his way to the seventh tee.

Trump is videotaped on the golf course so he waves to the camera knowing the cat is out of the bag. The liberal-leaning news outlets such as CNN and MSNBC are pounding home the narrative that 100,000 Americans have died from the virus and instead of acknowledging this grave statistic and providing empathy and comfort to the nation, Trump is out golfing. It is true. The video also shows no one in Trump’s group wearing a mask or following social distancing guidelines. The Donnie Show is a daily soap opera of drama designed to keep the voters entertained until the November election. That is when Donnie hopes his reality television show presidency will be extended another four years.

The republicans wince at Trump’s daily antics but put up with and defend the oddities because of one sole reason; judges. Trump’s legacy is placing a huge number of conservative judges within the US court system. These judges will be on the Federal and state benches for years and decades to come influencing all future legislation and laws. This is why republicans defend Trump’s sometimes disturbing actions and comments; they look at the end game which is judges. In back rooms, the republicans laugh and poke fun at the orange-headed clown but in public they praise the narcissist and stroke his ego. The republicans want to stack the courts in every way possible. This is Trump’s use to the Republican Party. Donnie is okay with this because his goal is to be in the limelight each day; he is an entertainer.

A Missouri hair stylist tests positive for covid and she has been in physical contact with 150 people over the last couple days. Churches are afraid this will happen to their congregations if they open too early. Rental car company Hertz files for bankruptcy protection. The bankruptcies will only increase as the year proceeds.

Looking back at 9-11, the outpouring of national pride and concern was remarkable. Citizens immediately began hanging American flags from their homes and every other car had a flag waving from a vehicle window. 3,000 Americans died at the hands of the filthy Middle East terrorists on that fateful day.

For COVID-19, at 100K deaths, over 30 times the deaths of 9-11, Americans simply do not have the national pride displayed during 2001 and 2002. People are staying at home worried about getting the virus and more concerned about their personal entertainment spending time on Facebook and Amazon and watching Netflix movies and Google’s (Alphabet) YouTube videos.

Memorial Day is upon us in the United States. This year we not only show respect and admiration for all our armed forces that died in foreign wars, but also to the 100,000 Americans cut down in life by China’s Wuhan virus. The dirtbag Chinese communists have changed the world forever.

Note Added 4:37 AM EST on Monday, 5/25/20, Memorial Day: Best wishes to all the families that have experienced fallen soldiers. President Trump stops all travel from Brazil to America due to the coronavirus outbreak. South Africa is going to try to restart its economy knowing that the virus is in full swing; they feel they have no choice. China warns the United States that individuals within President Trump's inner circle (Secretary of State Pompeo) are playing a "dangerous" game with US-China relations and risk a cold war. In truth, America and China are already in a cold war after the communists released the Wuhan virus on the world. US markets are closed today. S&P futures are up +15.

Note Added 5:58 AM EST on Monday, 5/25/20, Memorial Day: S&P futures are up +30. The market euphoria continues. The stock market complacency and lack of fear is rampant as verified by the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios (a dramatic stock market pullback is likely on tap beginning any day ahead). There are 99,300 coronavirus deaths in the United States. President Trump is scheduling a tee time. The president places a travel ban on Brazil due to the virus. Brazil is added to the ongoing travel ban on citizens from China, Iran and 30 European countries. The US only allows essential travel with Canada and Mexico. Protesters form at the gates of the Whitehouse chanting, "Stop killing us." President Trump makes fun of democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden for wearing a black face mask. Donnie doesn't wear a mouth diaper. Even face masks are split along the democrat and republican tribal lines. CNN reports that 80% of the coronavirus deaths are 65 years old and older and 80% of the coronavirus cases are people under 65 years old. The Fed says 40% of the people unemployed make less than $40,000 per year. Twitter fact checks a tweet from the president concerning his claim that mail-in voting is fraught with fraud. Twitter says they cannot find proof of this so they flagged the tweet. Trump goes ballistic since Twitter is his favorite platform for informing the public. He despises the press and does not want to communicate through them like the past presidents.

Note Added Tuesday, 5/26/20: The US COVID-19 deaths surpass 100K; it is a sad day, in May. 100,468 US citizens have fallen to the coronavirus.  Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected over 5.7 million people around the world murdering over 350,000 souls. 2.4 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened over 1.72 million Americans murdering 100.5K United States citizens. 477K have recovered. China claims to have tested 6.6 million people in the Wuhan region in 12 days; 1.5 million in one day. A 'pool testing' technique is used where samples are gathered together not one sample and if negative that is good enough. If positive, then those people are contacted and retested to find the individual/s infected. A poll in America indicates that 75% will not take the virus vaccine if it becomes available. If only 25% will take the vaccine, it remains a long road to herd immunity at plus 60%. The CDC says the antibody tests may be wrong one-half the time. They are the gang that couldn't shoot straight. WHO is corrupt. The NIH has poor judgement. The virus tragedy is handled by the Three Stooges.

Note Added Wednesday, 5/27/20: Dr Fauci says iti s "quite evident" that hdroxychloroquine is not helping patients to any great extent. France is outlawing its use since their data indicates it is of no help. Trump has been taking the drug daily but that is doubtful; it is likely only more bluster from the showman. At 6:30 PM EST, the Johns-Hopkins coronavirus data surpasses 100K with a major portion of deaths in New York the epicenter of the outbreak in America.