Monday, April 13, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador, and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in the Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People In Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4

by K E Stone

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon sickens 1.9 million people in the world and murders 115,000 (115K). China’s killer virus has attacked and sickened over 560K Americans (0.2% of the 330 million US population) murdering over 22K United States citizens. 30% of all the world’s coronavirus cases and 20% of the deaths are in the United States. China must pay dearly for their deed.

This is the fourth coronavirus article spaced at 10-day intervals that chronicles the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic in real-time. This series is valuable from a historic standpoint since future researchers, students, teachers, historians, economists, market participants, medical folks and government planners can experience the coronavirus drama as it unfolds in real-time. The articles chronicle the spread of China’s horrendous COVID-19 virus around the world and its impact on global markets and economics. Perhaps equally important, the articles capture the ongoing daily zeitgeist of humans and nations wrestling with the killer covid virus that only offers fear and death.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus around the world and its link is provided. Charts above are provided by Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

It is extremely disturbing that there is not even a handful of global nations that have yet beat the coronavirus. The worst is over for a particular nation or region under siege from covid only when the daily active cases peak and roll over. This action is the bell curve graph that eventually confirms the region is on the downside of the pandemic. Alas, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea are the only nations that are past the peak in the active case bell curve. Iran says it has peaked but that data is too untrustworthy to use in the analysis. Germany also shows a peak and improvement in the active case curve but this data is suspect and put on the back burner for now. The filthy communist Beijing leadership will quickly say that Hong Kong and Taiwan are China but those regions hold future plans and desires for separation from the mainland dictatorship (Xi). Thus, only China and South Korea have held the virus at bay. This is depressing.

Even worse, there is fear that a second wave is beginning in China near the border with Russia. Singapore was an early success story in the pandemic but their cases reaccelerate higher and they are squarely facing a second wave. Sadly, it looks like the COVID-19 virus will be with the world for a long time.

It is 10 days since the last update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) so let’s see what can be gleaned from the data perhaps something positive to counterbalance these dark dystopian days.

‘Social distancing’ is the new catch-phrase in America. It is really social isolation. Unfortunately, the ladies have already been practicing social distancing from Keystone for far too many years telling him to stay six feet away.

The latest TKSCIRM guidelines for forecasting the infection path of the coronavirus are as follows. For a particular region or nation, identify the date of the peak in daily infection cases. Next, watch for the next four days to see if the daily cases remain below that peak day, if so, that is five days in a row that the virus has leveled off and new infections are now moving choppy sideways which is a good thing; call this date the leveling-out confirmation date which is always five days beyond the peak in new cases. These dates enable forecasting for the peak in the active cases (top of bell curve). The active cases will peak from 7 to 20 days after the confirmation date. The active caseload peak is important since this represents the maximum strain on the healthcare system.

If a peak day of infections is identified but a couple days later the new cases are higher again, that date will now become the potential peak infection day. Five days must pass to confirm that the new cases are leveling-off and now in a choppy sideways pattern. At any time, if the new cases jump higher above the peak number again, the whole process will have to repeat and the sideways move in new cases will have to sustain for five days. This slow topping process is creating fear that the virus may stick around a long time.

It is unfortunate that the days cannot be nailed down more precisely than from 7 to 20 days after the sideways new-case confirmation date but it has become apparent that testing plays an enormous role in the handling of the coronavirus situation. China had very good testing in addition to locking down the entire region. Ditto Hong Kong and Taiwan and South Korea had exceptional testing. The more testing performed results in a quicker end to the virus. This is because sick people are identified faster, whether symptomatic or especially asymptomatic, and separated from the population. Nations with slower testing protocols and lack of preparation are paying a dear price for that incompetence and those dire situations will continue through April into May.

2/4/20 Peak Infection Day (Highest Number of New Cases) (a subsequent spike on 2/12/20 is ignored; China’s data is very suspect and of limited use)
2/8/20 Leveling-Off Confirmation Day
2/17/20 Peak in Active Cases Occurs (Top of Bell Curve) (14 days after the peak infection date and 9 days after the confirmation date)

Hong Kong
3/29/20 Peak Infection Day
4/2/20 Confirmation Day
4/7/20 Peak in Active Cases (5 days after confirmation date)

3/20/20 Peak Infection Day
3/24/20 Confirmation Day
4/6/20 Peak in Active Cases (13 days)

South Korea
3/3/20 Peak Infection Day
3/7/20 Confirmation Day
3/11/20 Peak in Active Cases although 3/15/20 is also a peak (4 days and 8 days)

The data is very limited in the way of success stories. The peak in the active cases (top of bell curve) occurs from 5 to 13 days after the new-case leveling-off confirmation day. The average is 9 days. These regions had robust testing programs and implemented faster and stricter social isolation rules on society. Of course, the communists tell you what to do and you do it, otherwise you receive a bullet in your temple. Western nations are experiencing more difficulty balancing human rights and liberties against coronavirus restrictions; thus, the virus is more widespread. All nations and regions are in the heat of the covid battle hoping and praying that their new cases will level off and a top in the active cases will occur soon. Well, keep prayin’.

The immediate conclusion from the data above is that all other nations will experience worst outcomes than the four above (the virus will linger longer and likely be more difficult to defeat). The other regions, Western nations, and the US, are larger, with more open cultures, and testing programs that are not as adequate, so the 5 to 13 target day range (9-day average) mentioned above is going to need to be increased to deal with the countries now forecasting their virus path forward. Let us decree that it will take 20 days for the active cases to peak after the confirmation day. Italy is an excellent test case for this thesis since tomorrow is 20 days beyond the confirmation date. There is no way to pinpoint that distance between sideways confirmation of new cases and the peak in the active caseload until more data is provided. If the US, or any other nation, ramps-up testing, the new case numbers may spike through the roof. This activity will extend the coronavirus situation which remains extremely fluid.

3/21/20 Peak Infection Day
3/25/20 Confirmation Day
4/14/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (estimate 20 days after confirmation day)

3/26/20 Peak Infection Day
3/30/20 Confirmation Day
4/19/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (estimate 20 days)

4/3/20 Peak Infection Day
4/7/20 Confirmation Day
4/27/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (estimate 20 days)

3/25/20 Peak Infection Day
3/29/20 Confirmation Day
4/1/20 New Peak Infection Day
4/9/20 Peak Infection Day
4/13/20 Projected Confirmation Day (5 days of new cases leveling off)
5/3/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

3/31/20 Peak Infection Day
4/4/20 Confirmation Day
4/24/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)

4/2/20 Peak Infection Day
4/6/20 Confirmation Day
4/26/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)

United States
4/4/20 Peak Infection Day
4/8/20 Confirmation Day
4/28/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)

4/5/20 Peak Infection Day
4/9/20 Confirmation Day
4/29/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)

4/10/20 Peak Infection Day
4/14/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/4/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

4/10/20 Peak Infection Day
4/14/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/4/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

4/11/20 Peak Infection Day
4/15/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/5/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

4/12/20 Peak Infection Day
4/16/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/6/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

4/13/20 Peak Infection Day (today's date--this may not be the peak)
4/17/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/7/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

4/13/20 Peak Infection Day (today's date--this may not be the peak)
4/17/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/7/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

4/13/20 Peak Infection Day (today's date--this may not be the peak)
4/17/20 Projected Confirmation Day
5/7/20 Projected Peak in Active Cases (20 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Although the peak in active cases for the world remains a ways off for late this month and early May, everyone should hope and pray it pans out as projected above since the alternate outcome is uber doom and gloom. Singapore is dealing with its second wave as is China. The Philippines can go either way at this juncture. Spain will likely peak slightly before Italy when three weeks ago the opposite was true. Spain likely benefited from learning from Italy which is taking a while to peak-out and this is likely due to increased testing (more sick people and asymptomatic virus carriers are identified).

As the United States ramps-up its testing program, there may be spikes in new cases which will extend the peak in the active caseload further out into May. Hopefully, the new cases will hold steady as they are now and America’s noble healthcare workers may see improvement in early May. Please realize that the United States has another month of pain ahead at a minimum; early to mid-May will only be realization in America that the light at the end of the tunnel is fortunately the end of the tunnel and not the oncoming train. Other outcomes, if the new cases spike higher, are horrific. It is the high infection rate (contagiousness) of COVID-19 that has people scared as well as the Chinese secrecy. What have the communists unleashed on the world?

The coronavirus tragedy continues across New Jersey and New York. Every state is impacted. As mentioned in the prior article, the virus is moving geographically inland from the East and West Coasts in towards the heartland. Baltimore, Maryland, is a hot zone. Each state will take their turn in the barrel. There is no end to the tragedy in America unless the new cases remain in that steady sideways pattern, or lower. Any spike in new cases above the 4/4/20 peak day will create horrific days ahead for the United States.

Note the two elevated days on 4/9/20 and 4/10/20 that threatened to overtake the 4/4/20 peak in new daily infections. For now, the outcome projected for America is as stated above, however, keep in the back of your mind that if 4/10/20 was the peak in new cases, 4/14/20 would be the confirmation date and the top in the active case bell curve would not occur until 5/4/20 early May.

Italy is an excellent case study for the 20-day rule as mentioned above. Italy needs to peak with its active case bell curve graph now, today, and tomorrow, right now, 4/13/20 and 4/14/20, as the projection states, otherwise, the projections that the peak in active cases occurs 20 days after the sideways confirmation date will have to be extended longer. The Italy data is the best data set thus far. So watch the booted nation closely this week and see if we can confirm how many days past the confirmation date that the peak in active cases will occur. For now, 20 days is the number but it depends on Italy.

Several somber milestones are exceeded on Good Friday, a solemn Catholic day, three days ago. The US surpasses the half-million mark with infections (over 500K people; 0.2% of the US population thus far) and exceeds 18K deaths. On Holy Saturday, the US deaths topped 20K. On Easter Sunday, yesterday, the death toll in America tops 22,000 people. America logs its highest fatality day on Good Friday with 1,983 souls losing their battle with covid. They are dropping like flies at a rate of almost 2K per day in the United States.

The world’s death toll exceeds 100K. Communist China has murdered over 100K people thus far this year with their Wuhan virus that is most likely a bioweapon released, either accidentally or intentionally, from one of their two laboratories located at the center of the outbreak.

In the prior article 10 days ago, the US, UK and Philippines were predicted to worsen, which they have. In positive news, UK Prime Minister Johnson recovers from coronavirus and is released from the hospital. He admits that he was knocking on death’s door last week.

President Trump is talking about reopening the economy. Three days ago, he says, “It’s the biggest decision I will ever have to make.” Four years of a presidential reality television show is getting old. Donnie is in his element each day with the lights shining on his orange head and the cameras snapping photos. Adoration is the daily fuel that Donnie requires. The following day he repeats the message saying tune in tomorrow as Donnie ponders the big decision. Then a tweet about the big decision he must make. It is all so predictable. This latest dramatic decision hyped by the president will then lead into the big reality television decision day. It is nauseating to watch.

The funniest part of this latest Trumpian display is that the state governors are actually the folks in charge of closing and opening their regions. Vermont is extending its stay-at-home edict for its citizens into May. Of course, the states will hear the president out and want to take direction and advisement from the commander-in-chief but Trump refused to dictate a universal stay-at-home policy for the country across all states. He says he did not want to step on state rights but now he wants to be the ringmaster announcing the opening of the biggest show on earth. Trump should focus on handling the virus situation first then the economy. What a mess but, that’s Our Donnie.

Trump is like Scarlett O’Hara in Gone With the Wind; how ironic that it is the orange-head’s fave movie? Scarlet could not believe or accept the hand she was dealt in life even though much of her fate was created by her own actions. No matter how much Donnie wants to turn back the hands of time, not even Cher can help him now. The US economy is toast. The government does not have the money to bailout everything. The demand shock will remain for many months erasing all hope for a solid economic recovery. America can print money like mad without a plan to repay but look no further than the Wiemar Republic to see how that one turns out.

Do you actually believe that Americans are going to be buying cars and houses with mindless enthusiasm (like the last few years)? The same upper class consumers that just witnessed their investment accounts crash from -20% to -40%? Economists and the Whitehouse cheerleaders will tout ‘pent-up demand’ as a big future driver for economic activity but everybody and his brother already has the basement and garage stocked-up with 27 jumbo packages of toilet paper, a freezer full of meat and so many canned goods that junior’s bedroom closet now serves as a pantry.

Consumers would be smart to start their gardens this year and grow their own vegetables. Hunting and fishing license sales may increase as sportsmen go to the woods to bring back tasty trout or venison for the supper table. 80 meat-producing plants in the United States are now running at reduced capacity mainly due to labor shortages (people calling off ill). A protein shortage is likely in the cards over the coming months so lining up meat sources is key. Folks may be tempted to buy a freezer and stock up with meat in case things get out of control. A couple weeks ago, the local grocer limited purchases of meat to one package. Venison (deer meat) tastes great and is super lean and healthy. Peanuts also provide protein. Some folks are buying chickens not only for egg-laying (which does not begin until about 6 months after the chick phase and of course only if the chick turns out to be a hen and not a rooster) but as a protein source.

The government’s program to help Americans through the virus situation is receiving criticism. The money is flowing to banks and businesses but the first checks to individuals are only making their way out now. The US cautions that some folks will not receive checks for a few weeks. Adult individuals will receive $1200 each with additional money for children.

Americans are hurting and in need. People must realize, however, that it will likely only become worse. The lines of cars waiting for boxes of food in Pittsburgh are two miles long. Sadly, the US government and Federal Reserve simply do not have the money to bail everything out. Of course the Fed can print money until the cows come home but eventually that results in the loss of the full faith and confidence in the country and currency and financial and economic collapse occurs anyway. The wealthy elite class raped America for all its worth over the last five decades destroying the middle class in the process. The middle class that was once the fabric of the nation and the moral compass that always steadied the US ship, no longer exists.

The Federal Reserve is spending $625 billion per week on Treasury, corporate and muni bonds. That is $1.2 trillion every two weeks. The Fed will be buying junk bonds and then they will start buying US stocks. Do you understand that it is over or are you stupid?

In the prior article, Trump and Pence earn the monikers Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber for proclaiming, over a week ago, that the virus would be under control and on the downside in a week’s time. Wrong again. The president is finally realizing that he is losing credibility with these unrealistic promises. Trump said the virus would go away with the warm weather in April. Wrong. He said things will be back to normal at Easter. Wrong. And now the latest misstatement that things will improve in a week that everyone in the country knew was not going to happen, and it did not. In the same sentence at one of the daily briefings, President Trump proclaims ‘the situation will improve in a week’ but also says ‘the next two weeks will be bad’. Pause for laughter. He cannot make his mind up on what to tell the public even in mid-sentence. That clearly displays lack of preparation.

Trump opines that he was being optimistic when making the wrong calls. That is not being optimistic; it is being stupid. The president has now taken the proper approach over the last few days where he can talk optimistically about the virus road ahead but avoid placing specific dates on outcomes. For a savvy politician, you think he would have known better sooner but he has righted the ship now. Trump continues, however, to have difficulty showing empathy or compassion and the narcissistic dude cannot admit he is wrong if his life depended on it (President Obama was equally narcissistic during his run).

President Trump grew up with a silver spoon in his mouth never wanting of anything (he was given anything he wanted) so he only knows how to brag about himself about being the best at everything and always setting records. Trump set the record for the fastest stock market crash in history that is for sure but funny how he does not boast about this accomplishment. Trump still has trouble grasping the fact that people do not mind being told bad news. He equates bad news to negativity against him and his reelection hopes. He views positive news as positive for his reelection campaign. Donnie does not understand that you can provide bad news but at the same time be optimistic as long as you provide a resolute plan forward. Donnie needs to lead; that is what people want and look for in troubled times. He is getting there. We all have our own individual personality quirks. He may view himself as a Churchillian figure, but so far, in handling the coronavirus, he would only qualify for carrying around Churchill’s bags.

Trump conducts the daily briefings and takes questions from the press but denigrates any reporter that asks an uncomfortable or negative question. Granted, the left-leaning media organizations, such as the broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) and cable news (CNN, MSNBC) are not fans of the orange-headed president and the questions are designed to make Trump stumble or look bad, however, he wanted the job and this goes with the territory. President Obama had to take heat from the right-leaning press such as Fox News, Breitbart and the republican AM radio talk show circuit led by the republican political hacks Limbaugh and Hannity. Isn’t it wonderful what crony capitalism created in America over the last few decades? Trump’s press conferences are analogous to a host that throws a big party but then walks around talking down to and denigrating the guests (reporters) all evening long.

In a new development, Whitehouse Trade Adviser Navarro and others warned President Trump back in January that the coronavirus could kill many Americans, result in millions of job losses and cost trillions to resolve. The Pentagon knew about the coronavirus in December so briefings were given to Trump in January. When reporters confront Trump with the information, the president says, “What email? I never saw an email.” Navarro fights back and defends the president against his own words which is comical. The only way you keep your job around Donnie is if you always put Trump's life and needs above your own.

Congress is proposing a bipartisan bill for a Coronavirus Commission to investigate the handling of the ongoing tragedy. The intent is to make sure America is better prepared for the next virus. The corrupt politicians on both sides will play their games with the commission and then both will agree to sweep all the problems and missteps under America’s lumpy rug.

The mask issue remains a major problem. As stated in the last missive, for three months to go by, now longer, where President Trump is unwilling to invoke the Defense Act to require companies to run three shifts 24/7 until further notice, is incompetence. The full faith of the US government would be placed behind all production committing to buy anything produced. Masks will be used and any overflow could be sold to other countries.  It is a no-brainer but Trump balks. One of the more troubling statements from the president was that he “put in an order for more masks” that will arrive in May and June. What?!! That is utter incompetence at the highest level to know about the coronavirus tragedy for three months running and the medical people on the front lines still do not have proper PPE (personal protective equipment) protection and the president is “putting in orders.” That is a blatant failure.

The plot thickens around the mask situation because anecdotally a manufacturer discusses how he was burned by the United States government the last time around. News stories say the gentlemen’s company increased production during one of the prior virus outbreaks but got stiffed in the end. The large inventory they were stuck with had to be sold cheaply. Do not look for manufacturers to bend over backwards. Money always talks but Donnie does not want to spend it on masks when it can instead be used to provide tax cuts for the wealthy or further cut banking regulations.

America will be a strange place if people are wearing masks. Keystone always tells his bankers that they ought to wear masks because of the way they rob and steal from folks (in the days of America’s Wild Wild West, cowboys turned bank robbers would pull their neck bandanas and handkerchiefs up in front of their nose and mouth to hide their faces). At stores or on sidewalks in recent days, Keystone quickly raises his hands in a surrender pose when confronting anyone wearing a mask but few of these cautious and fearful folks find humor in such adolescent antics during these troubled times. The serious folks most worried about their own mortality must not be at peace with their soul or perhaps they never experienced and lived through hard times before. Oh well, they will.

The testing situation is another ongoing problem and the data above verifies how extensive testing reduces the time required to snuff out the virus. The US continues to lag other nations in testing per capital (the number of tests administered based on the size of the population). Of course, Trump touts the overall total US testing numbers which will be obviously higher than all other countries (simply because America is larger than the other countries). President Trump brags each day that anyone can have a test for the coronavirus. Wrong. If you are a celebrity or wealthy, yes. If you are one of the huddled masses, you have to jump through several hoops first before a rationed test is approved.

Just like the mask situation, King Donnie has been at the helm of this situation for three months and more counting, and the testing remains woefully inadequate. In addition, to restart the economy, a plan is needed on how to test workers returning to work or at least monitor forehead temperatures (stores are out of thermometers and temperature gadgets). What a mess.

President Trump is now determining when the economy can reopen for business as per his reality television show bluster highlighted above. ‘Good luck wit dat’ as they say in Brooklyn. The testing situation, masks and lack of thermometers are only a few of the problems that need to be straightened out before King Donnie can decree that the economy is back in business. In the Wuhan region, things are still not completely back to normal which hints that the US will be mired in the coronoavirus mess for months to come and perhaps into next year. No one wants to hear all this bad news. Keystone does not get invited to any parties anymore and the bingo hall does not want him around.

In a poll two days ago, slightly over one-half of America say the president is mishandling the virus tragedy. Trump will need to improve these numbers if he wants reelected. Part of the problem is the daily press conference confusion. The president recommends that everyone use a mask but in the same breath says he does not plan to use a mask. In the Pittsburgh area, half the people walking around nowadays still do not wear masks; they are simply following the president’s lead.

The president was slow to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. Trump cheerleads the job he is doing daily, which is one of the functions of the press briefings, messaging, but the fact remains that Adviser Navarro and other staffers told the president, back in January, that trillions of dollars of damage may occur in the economy and millions may lose their jobs. The president downplayed the developing pandemic as evidenced in many videos and statements. At one presser, Trump brags that the number of cases are going to zero clearly illustrating the fact that he did not take the virus threat seriously. No doubt that democrat presidential challenger Biden will try to create the narrative that Trump was slow to respond to the covid tragedy. This is how the political baby games are played in crony America. Humorously, voters will venture to the polls in November choosing between the two corrupt silver-haired white guys; it is like choosing your poison.

King Donnie ushers in the age of MMT (modern monetary theory; the sick concept that a government can continue creating and spending money without responsibility or consequence; it will simply saddle future generations with debt that cannot be sustained). History rhymes when comparing Herbert Hoover leading America into the 1930’s Great Depression and Donnie Trump leading the US into the 2020’s Greatest Depression? It is perhaps Trump’s destiny.

Americans are realizing more that there is no Free Market. It’s a joke. Keystone has explained this for many years. America is best described as a ‘faux free market crony capitalism financial system’. The truth hurts. It has no resemblance to capitalism which only exists in theoretical text books.

In another poll, 90% of republicans and about two-thirds (66%) of democrats want China to reimburse America for their evil unleashing of the Wuhan virus pandemic on the world. The WHO is in bed with China and defends the communist state. China owns a lot of US Treasury debt; perhaps that debt should be wiped out as a means to reimburse the United States for their virus mess. A UK study reports that 95% of the virus damage to the world would not have occurred if China would have been upfront and honest about the outbreak from the onset. Instead, China lied and people died; you would expect nothing less from the filthy communists led by corrupt Dictator Xi. The Chinese dictators throughout history are highly skilled at murdering people; it is something they do very well.

The communist Chinese leadership is preventing all scientists and journalists from publishing information about the origins of the Wuhan coronavirus. China is snuffing out all references to the coronavirus origins. Of course they are. If the scientists look too closely, they will see that Mother Nature did not create that virus monster via the bats and snakes narrative but instead the Wuhan bioweapon’s laboratory created this covid Frankenstein.

President Trump is correct in criticizing WHO for their handling of the coronavirus tragedy from the start, however, the president is simply looking for scapegoats since he knows he will be receiving lots of criticism in the future for his slow response to the pandemic. WHO did not declare the COVID-19 virus as a pandemic until 3/11/20.

House Majority (democrat) Speaker Pelosi is quiet these days except for comments and negotiations on additional spending bills in the backrooms. She is hunkered down avoiding exposure to the coronavirus; hiding under her desk inside a taxpayer-funded bunker. Pelosi is the shrewdest politician in Washington, DC, and constantly underestimated—which she uses to her advantage. She is no doubt a jagged thorn in Trump’s backside. Perhaps she is sly as a fox staying healthy while the president and vice president yuck it up on stage everyday at the press briefing circus. If the two top dogs become stricken with covid, hopefully this does not happen, the next in line of succession, which takes over control of the United States of America, is the Speaker of the House of Representatives; Pelosi. Nancy is holed-up in the bunker donning a tin-foil hat, eating tunafish out of a can and waiting for her opportunity at steering the Free World ship.

The Republican Tribe of cheerleaders are continuing to try and label the democrats as socialists that intend to send the US towards communism. It is comical. These idiots sitting in ivory towers far from the huddled masses assume that the public is highly educated and well-versed on the socialism doctrine. If you ask most folks what socialism is, some will say it is something about the social internet, others will say it is when you get together at a party and socialize, and others will shrug clueless shoulders. When you tell these folks that socialism is when the government provides you aid and helps you get by in life perhaps by offering medical insurance, food stamps, childcare services or other assistance, they say, yes sir, sign me up for some of that. It is humorous that the people making arguments for and against socialism, or perhaps a move to socialism-lite in the coming years, do not realize that the people they are targeting do not understand the word socialism. Many do not have fancy educations. If you give people free stuff, they will vote for you.

As with writing a general piece for the broadest audience possible, such as this article, the trick that all professional authors know is that you must write to a fifth-grade audience. The writing must be at that fifth-grade level to guarantee that your words are reaching and communicating with the whole audience. Sure, the ivory-league class may not appreciate a dumbed-down version and lack of ten-dollar college words, but screw them. Keystone’s writing is always focused on the huddled masses and broadening their understanding of the corrupt crony capitalism system in America and explaining things simply.

The wealthy class destroyed America over the last five decades taking advantage of the rigged crony capitalism system. The middle class was wiped out in favor of slave labor overseas that drove US stock prices through the roof benefiting the elite that own large stock portfolios. One-half of Americans do not own one single share of stock. The US middle-class has now morphed into an upper middle class, where the spouses have professional jobs such as accountants, lawyers and so forth that cater to the wealthy class, and a lower middle class where the bulk of the middle class landed. Of course, the upper middle class tout the virtues of capitalism and defend the ultra wealthy since they are feeding off the same financial teat.

Capitalism only exists in theoretical textbooks. America is a crony capitalism system that benefits the wealthy class since the elite and privileged folks hold the positions of power that control the laws—that are adjusted to benefit their own pocket books. 20 million people in the US are screwing the other 310 million. Crony capitalism is on its last legs and will die out in the coming years. It is likely that a transition into a Nordic-style model, a socialism-lite, will occur over the next decade or two. The phony capitalists in America, who by the way are all now screaming and crying for bailouts and fee money which is the exact opposite of capitalism, will say that a socialism-lite system will prevent poor folks from starting businesses. What do you think has already been occurring in crony America for the last 50 years? In truth, the opposite will occur.

Rich kids always start businesses since they have a safety net. Simply look at the parade of young faces on business television screens dressed in their yuppie clothes and groomed for the cover of Vogue or GQ. These business entrepreneurs are not putting it all on the line. They know the family wealth is always there to support them. Rich kids do not have to worry about medical insurance and other such matters so it is easy for them to decide to make a go of a business. Many fail at one or more businesses before succeeding but it does not matter since mommy and daddy have the money to bank roll the ventures; like Trump.

A poor American does not have the same opportunity since they are worried about putting food on the table and cannot take a big risk especially without medical coverage. In the Nordic models, with universal health insurance, the huddled masses are more prone to starting a business, not less, since they are not as fearful of a negative outcome, they would have more of a safety net in place, like the wealthy class. The playing field is leveled. This concept is discussed among the Nobel laureates such as Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer. The United States will head to a brighter place over time but it may take a decade or two to get there. Be grateful that crony capitalism is dying and exiting stage right. Capitalism died in America because of human greed and non-transparency; it is very simple to understand.

To no surprise, with this coronavirus situation, the corporations have received the handout money before any United States citizen. Do you understand the crony capitalism system or are you stupid?

Bill Gates wants tracking of humans. The Brave New World is here. Just as the Patriot Act ushered in illegal surveillance of American citizens after 9-11, the coronavirus will implement further illegal and un-Constitutional tracking measures against the population in the name of medical science and handling pandemics. Many humans are mindless little lemmings and penguins so they will follow along with what they are told. Others will refuse to take on the mark of the beast (global surveillance of the public).

Trump's main doctor, Dr Fauci, is opining about 'immunity cards' that identify people which had the virus or have received a vaccine. The card would be government permission to leave your home; isn't that sad? Do you think it is better to live free or die? In the future , perhaps you would not be able to have a job, or a date for that matter, unless you have an immunity card. It brings back memories of Word War II and the Soviet-East German block checkpoints asking for "Your Papers Please." Are you willing to sell your soul for the mark of the beast? Perhaps one day you will have to make that decision.

Many Americans are whipping themselves into a tizzy and frenzy probably from watching too much cable television. The coronavirus death numbers rise as people fear that the Grim Reaper will be knocking at their door. Zinc and vitamins C and D-3 boost the immune system and are sold out from most Walmart’s these days. Zinc also helps the hydroxychloroquine drug, touted by President Trump as a potential remedy for covid, to work better. Unfortunately, some of the research results on hydroxychloroquine may not be as hopeful as expected since patients are experiencing jumpy heart rates.

US Secretary of State Pompeo has said for many weeks that American citizens abroad should return home. The US government is actively working with other Western nations to bring citizens back home to their respective countries. Of course, the United States always protects its citizens anywhere in the world but the statement has broader implications; potential war. Communist China has now murdered over 100K people in the world including over 20K Americans with their deadly Wuhan virus bioweapon. A brave new Orwellian world awaits us all.

The jails are breeding grounds for viruses ditto military bases. Also the Navajo Nation. It is easy to see how situations can become very ugly very fast if the coronavirus is not brought under control. The virus spreads quickly at and from beach parties, cruise ships, concerts, sporting events and religious services all of which are shut down in America. The Wuhan region in China is not back to normal as yet which does not provide encouragement for the virus road ahead.

During Easter and this morning, President Trump must sense that the heat is coming over his handling of the virus situation namely the slow initial response. Trump’s key physician, Dr Fauci, admitted that the virus situation is worse due to the slow initial response. The president’s orange head must be blowing a gasket. Trump continues bragging about the travel restriction he placed on people traveling from the Wuhan province, which was a good idea, but that ban was flimsy and tens of thousands of Chinese Americans, Chinese, and others entered the United States after that announcement.

In addition, the president may have mistakenly thought the travel ban was enough so he wiped his hands of the matter and told everyone not to worry. The email documents, phone messages, meeting minutes and other information documenting Trump’s early handling of the coronavirus situation as 2020 began likely paint a negative picture. He likely lost 4 to 6 weeks of time but overall the orange-headed showman is doing an average job of combating the virus, however, he is likely dealt a losing hand in the end. Fauci also says that a physical election process at polls cannot yet be guaranteed in November.

The virus situation will not end until a vaccine is developed and the scientists involved say do not even think that will happen before one year’s time so perhaps an 18-month time frame is a realistic target date for a potential vaccine. Speaking of Nobel prizes, whoever discovers the vaccine is guaranteed this corrupt reward. This means the economy, and all of your lives, will continue to be disrupted, in fits and stops, and perhaps for longer stretches for many months ahead.

The major take away from all the wind-bag words and mumbo-jumbo above is ‘testing’. The data clearly shows that the better and more extensive the testing program, the faster the virus is lessened. King Donnie should focus less on when the economy will restart and more on the testing program since the virus tests will pave the way for sending people back to work.

The virus tragedy will likely not peak for the world until May when the worry will be about second wave outbreaks. The global economy is toast. Things cannot return to normal until a vaccine is discovered which is likely a year or more away. All of you are about to experience what many months of hard times, recession, and even depression, are all about.

Trump is now lashing out at the states and setting up scapegoats telling them to be ready for a wave of illnesses with masks and other supplies. He is creating the narrative that the state are 100% responsible for the shortfall in PPE. Trump’s loyalists are calling for Fauci’s head on a platter. Trump is no Churchill. Pitting state against state for buying rationed supplies is an epic failure. Donnie should have the mask manufacturers running plants 24/7 but instead he is “putting orders in” that may arrive in May and June. The coronavirus nightmare likely does not end well for anyone. Stay in your bunker.

OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, the world's top three oil producers, reach an agreement to limit production to stabilize prices. Oil futures are trading all over the map up big one minute then down big. Very erratic trading. When oil prices were above 60 dollars, Trump wanted the Saudi's to step up production to move prices lower to boost the US economy. Now that oil prices have crashed, threatening to bankrupt companies and eliminate the high-paying oil industry jobs especially across the Midwest, the president stepped into the Saudi-Russia oil price war to resolve the situation this weekend. Even though Saudi Arabia and Russia were in an oil knife fight, they both realized they could squeeze the US shale industry into submission and then split that part of the pie. The Saudi's, however, are heavily dependent on the US military to protect their robed arses, and must tread softly when going against King Donnie. The band of oil thieves pledge allegiance to a new back room deal for fixing prices but none of this will change the demand destruction that will continue this year. There isn't any place to store all the oil these days. Set your empty milk cartons and liter soda jugs aside since they can be used to store the oil coming out our ears.

At munch time, today, 4/13/20, President Trump does not want marginalized. King Donnie stands on a soap box and declares that he, and he alone, is responsible for deciding when and how to open up the US economy in the wake of the coronavirus tragedy. Trump is pushing back against the states that say they will determine whether their region is open for business, or not. Sounds like a fight brewing which is silly. Donnie needs to focus on the testing as mentioned above since the data shows that this can bring the quickest end to the ongoing COVID-19 nightmare.

An hour later, the representatives from states are pushing back against the president saying the call to open or close their economies is theirs. Trump retweets a message about firing Dr Fauci under the #FireFauci hashtag. Baby political games and backstabbing are on full display as the coronavirus spreads across America.

Note Added 4:57 PM EST: The S&P 500 finishes the Monday session down 15 points, -0.5%, to 2775. The SPX crashed from the all-time record high at 3394 on 2/19/20 to 2191 on 3/23/20 losing -35.4% in 23 trading days the fastest stock market crash in history. The SPX pops from 2191 to 2819 on 4/9/20 in 13 days a +28.9% recovery rally retracing 50% of the crash move, from a Fibonacci retracement perspective. Thus, price is at this 50% Fib pivot level at 2793 deciding to bounce or die. Stock market bulls win above SPX 2793 while the bears win below 2793. At the current 2775 price, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is down 619 points off the all-time high a -18% deficit. Thus, if you are a long-only investor viewing your stock portfolio as your nest egg, your egg cracked -30% to -40% and even with the recovery over the last three weeks, your stocks remain fried by -20% or more.

Note Added 5:57 PM EST: President Trump is conducting the daily coronavirus briefing. The opening time is taken up by Trump defending his initial actions in January and February in handling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Dr Fauci is asked to make comments and he tries to smooth over any misstatements and misunderstandings in recent days. His tap dancing does not help and the room only becomes more heated. Someone should instruct the doc on one of the most important rules in politics; 'if you are explaining, you are losing'. Trump's head begins turning more orange as he works himself up. It is supposed to be a briefing about the current status of the coronavirus not a daily campaign event. Trump's behavior ranting about the initial handling of the situation, and it goes on and on, is why many people do not bother tuning into the press conferences anymore. It gets old listening to a man bragging about himself for an hour each day. It should be an interesting presser as the president becomes more animated and begins speaking more off the cuff. Now he is going into Joe Biden's past. So much for a coronavirus briefing.

Note Added 6:19 PM EST: The briefing turns into a big argument between the president and the reporters. Trump is bragging that he did an "incredible" job handling the virus situation. This baby stuff continues for over one-half hour. Trump continues parsing the words a la Bill Clinton. Someone needs to tap Donnie on the shoulder and tell him if you are explainin', you're losin'. There has not been an update of the virus situation as yet; it is only Trump defending and bragging his coronavirus actions. That's Our Donnie. You could tell he is in an animated mood this evening. Trump's handlers should tell him to wind it down and exit stage right before it all goes wrong.

Note Added 3:15 AM EST on Tuesday, 4/14/20: President Trump remained combative during the press briefing showing a video that boasted of his great and 'decisive action'. Donnie must be watching too many of Xi's and Putin's propaganda vid's and wanted one of his own. The president proclaims 'total authority' over starting and stopping the US economy. Of course he does; he's King Trump. The president and the States are getting into a p*ssing contest over who will restart the economy as the coronavirus is spreading across America killing citizens and further damaging the economy. Donnie continues trying to rewrite the narrative over his minimal attention to the developing virus tragedy during January and February. He is only succeeding in calling more attention to his inaction. Trump would be better off if he reduced the virus briefings to two or three per week and kept them shorter and focused on the actual coronavirus and not all the other political crap. It's not a good look spending an hour a day telling everyone how great you are while arguing and berating the reporters that you asked to be there. Another horrible milestone is crossed with the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus cases cross 2 million on planet Earth. China's Wuhan virus is a horrific crime against humanity. China has murdered nearly 24,000 Americans with the Wuhan coronavirus. The regular flu season, mainly two strains this year in the States, has killed 62,000 Americans. Remember, watch Italy's active case bell curve chart to see if it forms the top of the bell today and tomorrow. If so, the 20-day time period can be used to project when the peak in active cases will occur for other countries. If Italy does not top out on the active case chart today and tomorrow, simply monitor how many additional days it takes for the Italy active curve to flatten and roll over lower (peak). If Italy's active case curve peaks, say, 28 days from the confirmation date explained above, then all projected dates for the other countries will have to also be pushed forward 8 additional days. Okay, Italy, you are leading the world with the best coronavirus data set. Can your active cases peak out today and tomorrow?

Note Added 9:00 AM EST on Wednesday, 4/15/20: The stock market prints a big +2% up day on Tuesday extending the strong relief rally off the March bottom. However, S&P futures are down -83 points, which would give up all of yesterday's gains. The Empire State Mfg Index tanks -78.2 a record low. Retail Sales plummet -8.7%. No one is building anything since they are sitting at home, drinking beer and watching Gilligan's Island and Beverly Hillbillies repeats on television. The huge stock market rally off the bottom is purely due to the Federal Reserve money printing. The central bankers are the market. Just as stocks rally strongly after every central banker pump for the last 11 years, this one is no different. The volume is thin and the upside is led by the megacaps. AMZN and NFLX catch strong bids since folks sit home and watch tv but everybody and his brother is in that trade now. The taxi cab driver told Keystone that he took his entire paycheck and bot AMZN stock since it will be a big winner during the virus situation. The stock market rally also receives upside fuel from short-covering. The ETF industry held up but there was strain in the thinly-traded instruments so be aware of the trading volumes in the instruments you own. When things become hairy in the future, the ETF exit door is going to become quite tiny. President Trump had another virus press conference last evening. Same-o stuff. Trump back pedals on his claim to possess total and full authority over restarting the economy. He does not have total authority and owns up to it in his own Trumpian kind of way never willing to actually admit he is wrong. Trump suspends funds for WHO since they are in bed with the communist Chinese leadership and downplayed the threat of coronavirus which we now pay the price. WHO dropped the ball bigtime and King Donnie is right to withhold funding. The EU defends WHO. Australia is straddling the fence supporting the US but at the same time saying that WHO does perform some good work. WHO plans a news conference to refute the US withholding funds. China has to be held accountable for unleashing the Wuhan coronavirus bioweapon on the world. There remains a lot of strange unknowns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Some doctors think this virus has been around for a while and many people may have already had it. In China, there may be millions infected but the Beijing leadership refuses to provide any useful information. President Trump wants to see the economy reopened by the governors, in some part, on May 1. Here we go again. More worthless goals that will only disappoint Americans. King Donnie has a difficult job; he is weighing the providing of rosy talk to try and keep people calm and prevent them from going nuts quarantined in their apartments, versus, telling the truth that there will be no return to quasi-normalcy for a month or more and then there will be fear that the virus hits hard when the cool weather arrives this Fall. Trump would be better off telling the latter case; he needs to speak plainly, truthfully and directly to the people not the rosy talk always proven wrong. America has become an impatient society and culture over the last few decades; perhaps technology turns humans into flakes. The coronavirus is a fast spreading disease. Many Americans will get the virus sooner or later so the focus should be on slowing the spread of covid so the medical personnel and facilities do not become overwhelmed. Americans can understand and accept this message; besides, they have no choice. The briefings remain part campaign rally, part reality television show and part boasting platform and b*tch session for limelight Donnie. If you had a nickel for every time he brings up the travel ban you would be a wealthy man. The travel ban against Wuhan was a great move but it was the lack of follow-up and vigilance in February that may hurt Donnie going forward (no matter how many times he says everything he has done is 100% perfect and he is the smartest man since Einstein and he alone can solve the world's problems). The stuff is hilarious after a while; Donnie becomes a caricature of himself. Americans are still waiting for the proverbial check in the mail from the government stimulus program. Folks will starve from hunger by the time it arrives. As the COVID-19 drama continues, democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden receives endorsements from his rival Bernie Sanders, so the primary season is officially over, former President Obama and former candidate Elizabeth Warren who obviously overplayed her hand. Trump is occupied with the virus situation each day which provides Sleepy Joe, as Donnie calls him, time to get plenty of sleep and rest before the election in early November; if there is an election. A pork processing plant in South Dakota, the largest in the nation, is shuttered with 400 workers sick with the coronavirus. These folks went home and infected at least another 100 family members or close friends. The pork plant is owned by a Chinese investor but the outbreak was not caused by a person traveling back from China. South Dakota is involved with a study on the hydrochloroquine drug that President Trump continues touting as a treatment for the coronavirus. The IMF says this year will be worse than the Great Depression.  Italy's active cases, the bell curve, sadly continues higher. Keep watching it since it will dictate the number of days past the confirmation date when the peak occurs. Sadly, all projected dates above will already have to be moved forward a couple days since Italy has yet to top out. The United States forging ahead with reopening the economy may be a grave mistake. Donnie may want to think June instead of May. As mentioned above, testing is key and it is very obvious that the countries and regions with great testing protocols and methods fare better. The focus should be on testing and masks. Tests and masks, Donnie, tests and masks. Tests and masks!!

Note Added 2:51 AM EST on Thursday, 4/16/20: King Donnie is at it again inserting his foot into his mouth. For what reason, who knows? At yesterday's so-called virus briefing, which is actually a campaign-style press conference each day (Donnie is likely champing at the bit to hit the campaign trail but this is on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, thus, Trump uses the bully pulpit each day as his campaign vehicle). President Trump proclaims, "We have passed the peak on new cases (in the US)." He paints a positive picture across the United States creating the image that the COVID-19 pandemic is under control. Wrong. Trump is dead-set on restarting the economy but he is wishing and hoping rather than actually getting the job done of defeating the virus. The politicians and media are great at their half-truth lies. Both the Republican Tribe and Democrat Tribe are guilty. Trump is partially correct taking his statement at face value. The new virus cases in certain regions of the United States are leveling off or dropping, however, in other places it is increasing. Placing this aside, the president is performing a much greater disservice to the American people painting a rosy picture when this is far from the case. The active case chart continues higher and is nowhere near peaking. The US is NOT at a peak in virus cases. Here is the link to the charts at Worldometer. See how Trump spins the narrative positively talking about new cases when in truth the active case chart keeps going up and up. Humans are corrupt animals. CNBC, a left-leaning news organization, and other liberal media outlets, say that Trump said, "We have passed the peak." Notice how the Democrat Tribe truncates the quote. If you take the quote this way, Trump is 100% wrong since the active case chart clearly proves this. It is all a hilarious example of human corruption in America and how the republican and democrat tribal warfare takes place daily but it is nothing to laugh at since people continue dying of the coronavirus each day. You would be smart to not hitch your wagon to either of these corrupt political parties; perhaps it is time to take the country in a new direction. The US will not peak in active cases until early May and you best keep your fingers crossed that is the outcome. Only 3 million US citizens have been tested for the COVID-19 virus. That is absolutely shameful since there are 330 million people in America. The reason South Korea had success at fighting the pandemic is that they had a task force already in place after the SARS and other outbreaks. South Korea immediately implemented an extensive testing plan and quarantined individuals infected. The US had a department in place to plan for pandemics but Trump eliminated it when he took office saying he is a businessman and does not want people sitting around not doing anything. He brazenly said that if we need them we will call them back. Trump likely sees the virus situation as his Waterloo and no matter how much he closes his eyes and says 'Daddy make it go away', it won't. In Italy, the active case graph continues to rise. The slope is becoming flatter but it has still not peaked. Keep watching it since this will dictate the timeline for the other countries above. After the new virus cases flatten for any region or country, and this is verified for five days (the confirmation date explained above), it takes over 20 days for the active chart to peak (Italy will give us the exact number of days since they should peak in active cases any day ahead) which represents the maximum case load on the medical facilities. Trump is clearly delusional with the coronavirus situation. Perhaps he cannot accept his fate? He must. Coronavirus is Trump's destiny. Testing and masks, Donnie, testing and masks!! Chop-chop.

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