‘Social distancing’ is the new catch-phrase in America. It is really social isolation. Unfortunately, the ladies have already been practicing social distancing from Keystone for far too many years telling him to stay six feet away.
Note the two elevated days on 4/9/20 and 4/10/20 that threatened to overtake the 4/4/20 peak in new daily infections. For now, the outcome projected for America is as stated above, however, keep in the back of your mind that if 4/10/20 was the peak in new cases, 4/14/20 would be the confirmation date and the top in the active case bell curve would not occur until 5/4/20 early May.
Just like the mask situation, King Donnie has been at the helm of this situation for three months and more counting, and the testing remains woefully inadequate. In addition, to restart the economy, a plan is needed on how to test workers returning to work or at least monitor forehead temperatures (stores are out of thermometers and temperature gadgets). What a mess.
Capitalism only exists in theoretical textbooks. America is a crony capitalism system that benefits the wealthy class since the elite and privileged folks hold the positions of power that control the laws—that are adjusted to benefit their own pocket books. 20 million people in the US are screwing the other 310 million. Crony capitalism is on its last legs and will die out in the coming years. It is likely that a transition into a Nordic-style model, a socialism-lite, will occur over the next decade or two. The phony capitalists in America, who by the way are all now screaming and crying for bailouts and fee money which is the exact opposite of capitalism, will say that a socialism-lite system will prevent poor folks from starting businesses. What do you think has already been occurring in crony America for the last 50 years? In truth, the opposite will occur.
A poor American does not have the same opportunity since they are worried about putting food on the table and cannot take a big risk especially without medical coverage. In the Nordic models, with universal health insurance, the huddled masses are more prone to starting a business, not less, since they are not as fearful of a negative outcome, they would have more of a safety net in place, like the wealthy class. The playing field is leveled. This concept is discussed among the Nobel laureates such as Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer. The United States will head to a brighter place over time but it may take a decade or two to get there. Be grateful that crony capitalism is dying and exiting stage right. Capitalism died in America because of human greed and non-transparency; it is very simple to understand.
Trump's main doctor, Dr Fauci, is opining about 'immunity cards' that identify people which had the virus or have received a vaccine. The card would be government permission to leave your home; isn't that sad? Do you think it is better to live free or die? In the future , perhaps you would not be able to have a job, or a date for that matter, unless you have an immunity card. It brings back memories of Word War II and the Soviet-East German block checkpoints asking for "Your Papers Please." Are you willing to sell your soul for the mark of the beast? Perhaps one day you will have to make that decision.
At munch time, today, 4/13/20, President Trump does not want marginalized. King Donnie stands on a soap box and declares that he, and he alone, is responsible for deciding when and how to open up the US economy in the wake of the coronavirus tragedy. Trump is pushing back against the states that say they will determine whether their region is open for business, or not. Sounds like a fight brewing which is silly. Donnie needs to focus on the testing as mentioned above since the data shows that this can bring the quickest end to the ongoing COVID-19 nightmare.
An hour later, the representatives from states are pushing back against the president saying the call to open or close their economies is theirs. Trump retweets a message about firing Dr Fauci under the #FireFauci hashtag. Baby political games and backstabbing are on full display as the coronavirus spreads across America.
Note Added 4:57 PM EST: The S&P 500 finishes the Monday session down 15 points, -0.5%, to 2775. The SPX crashed from the all-time record high at 3394 on 2/19/20 to 2191 on 3/23/20 losing -35.4% in 23 trading days the fastest stock market crash in history. The SPX pops from 2191 to 2819 on 4/9/20 in 13 days a +28.9% recovery rally retracing 50% of the crash move, from a Fibonacci retracement perspective. Thus, price is at this 50% Fib pivot level at 2793 deciding to bounce or die. Stock market bulls win above SPX 2793 while the bears win below 2793. At the current 2775 price, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, is down 619 points off the all-time high a -18% deficit. Thus, if you are a long-only investor viewing your stock portfolio as your nest egg, your egg cracked -30% to -40% and even with the recovery over the last three weeks, your stocks remain fried by -20% or more.
Note Added 5:57 PM EST: President Trump is conducting the daily coronavirus briefing. The opening time is taken up by Trump defending his initial actions in January and February in handling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Dr Fauci is asked to make comments and he tries to smooth over any misstatements and misunderstandings in recent days. His tap dancing does not help and the room only becomes more heated. Someone should instruct the doc on one of the most important rules in politics; 'if you are explaining, you are losing'. Trump's head begins turning more orange as he works himself up. It is supposed to be a briefing about the current status of the coronavirus not a daily campaign event. Trump's behavior ranting about the initial handling of the situation, and it goes on and on, is why many people do not bother tuning into the press conferences anymore. It gets old listening to a man bragging about himself for an hour each day. It should be an interesting presser as the president becomes more animated and begins speaking more off the cuff. Now he is going into Joe Biden's past. So much for a coronavirus briefing.
Note Added 6:19 PM EST: The briefing turns into a big argument between the president and the reporters. Trump is bragging that he did an "incredible" job handling the virus situation. This baby stuff continues for over one-half hour. Trump continues parsing the words a la Bill Clinton. Someone needs to tap Donnie on the shoulder and tell him if you are explainin', you're losin'. There has not been an update of the virus situation as yet; it is only Trump defending and bragging his coronavirus actions. That's Our Donnie. You could tell he is in an animated mood this evening. Trump's handlers should tell him to wind it down and exit stage right before it all goes wrong.
Note Added 3:15 AM EST on Tuesday, 4/14/20: President Trump remained combative during the press briefing showing a video that boasted of his great and 'decisive action'. Donnie must be watching too many of Xi's and Putin's propaganda vid's and wanted one of his own. The president proclaims 'total authority' over starting and stopping the US economy. Of course he does; he's King Trump. The president and the States are getting into a p*ssing contest over who will restart the economy as the coronavirus is spreading across America killing citizens and further damaging the economy. Donnie continues trying to rewrite the narrative over his minimal attention to the developing virus tragedy during January and February. He is only succeeding in calling more attention to his inaction. Trump would be better off if he reduced the virus briefings to two or three per week and kept them shorter and focused on the actual coronavirus and not all the other political crap. It's not a good look spending an hour a day telling everyone how great you are while arguing and berating the reporters that you asked to be there. Another horrible milestone is crossed with the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus cases cross 2 million on planet Earth. China's Wuhan virus is a horrific crime against humanity. China has murdered nearly 24,000 Americans with the Wuhan coronavirus. The regular flu season, mainly two strains this year in the States, has killed 62,000 Americans. Remember, watch Italy's active case bell curve chart to see if it forms the top of the bell today and tomorrow. If so, the 20-day time period can be used to project when the peak in active cases will occur for other countries. If Italy does not top out on the active case chart today and tomorrow, simply monitor how many additional days it takes for the Italy active curve to flatten and roll over lower (peak). If Italy's active case curve peaks, say, 28 days from the confirmation date explained above, then all projected dates for the other countries will have to also be pushed forward 8 additional days. Okay, Italy, you are leading the world with the best coronavirus data set. Can your active cases peak out today and tomorrow?.
Note Added 9:00 AM EST on Wednesday, 4/15/20: The stock market prints a big +2% up day on Tuesday extending the strong relief rally off the March bottom. However, S&P futures are down -83 points, which would give up all of yesterday's gains. The Empire State Mfg Index tanks -78.2 a record low. Retail Sales plummet -8.7%. No one is building anything since they are sitting at home, drinking beer and watching Gilligan's Island and Beverly Hillbillies repeats on television. The huge stock market rally off the bottom is purely due to the Federal Reserve money printing. The central bankers are the market. Just as stocks rally strongly after every central banker pump for the last 11 years, this one is no different. The volume is thin and the upside is led by the megacaps. AMZN and NFLX catch strong bids since folks sit home and watch tv but everybody and his brother is in that trade now. The taxi cab driver told Keystone that he took his entire paycheck and bot AMZN stock since it will be a big winner during the virus situation. The stock market rally also receives upside fuel from short-covering. The ETF industry held up but there was strain in the thinly-traded instruments so be aware of the trading volumes in the instruments you own. When things become hairy in the future, the ETF exit door is going to become quite tiny. President Trump had another virus press conference last evening. Same-o stuff. Trump back pedals on his claim to possess total and full authority over restarting the economy. He does not have total authority and owns up to it in his own Trumpian kind of way never willing to actually admit he is wrong. Trump suspends funds for WHO since they are in bed with the communist Chinese leadership and downplayed the threat of coronavirus which we now pay the price. WHO dropped the ball bigtime and King Donnie is right to withhold funding. The EU defends WHO. Australia is straddling the fence supporting the US but at the same time saying that WHO does perform some good work. WHO plans a news conference to refute the US withholding funds. China has to be held accountable for unleashing the Wuhan coronavirus bioweapon on the world. There remains a lot of strange unknowns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Some doctors think this virus has been around for a while and many people may have already had it. In China, there may be millions infected but the Beijing leadership refuses to provide any useful information. President Trump wants to see the economy reopened by the governors, in some part, on May 1. Here we go again. More worthless goals that will only disappoint Americans. King Donnie has a difficult job; he is weighing the providing of rosy talk to try and keep people calm and prevent them from going nuts quarantined in their apartments, versus, telling the truth that there will be no return to quasi-normalcy for a month or more and then there will be fear that the virus hits hard when the cool weather arrives this Fall. Trump would be better off telling the latter case; he needs to speak plainly, truthfully and directly to the people not the rosy talk always proven wrong. America has become an impatient society and culture over the last few decades; perhaps technology turns humans into flakes. The coronavirus is a fast spreading disease. Many Americans will get the virus sooner or later so the focus should be on slowing the spread of covid so the medical personnel and facilities do not become overwhelmed. Americans can understand and accept this message; besides, they have no choice. The briefings remain part campaign rally, part reality television show and part boasting platform and b*tch session for limelight Donnie. If you had a nickel for every time he brings up the travel ban you would be a wealthy man. The travel ban against Wuhan was a great move but it was the lack of follow-up and vigilance in February that may hurt Donnie going forward (no matter how many times he says everything he has done is 100% perfect and he is the smartest man since Einstein and he alone can solve the world's problems). The stuff is hilarious after a while; Donnie becomes a caricature of himself. Americans are still waiting for the proverbial check in the mail from the government stimulus program. Folks will starve from hunger by the time it arrives. As the COVID-19 drama continues, democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden receives endorsements from his rival Bernie Sanders, so the primary season is officially over, former President Obama and former candidate Elizabeth Warren who obviously overplayed her hand. Trump is occupied with the virus situation each day which provides Sleepy Joe, as Donnie calls him, time to get plenty of sleep and rest before the election in early November; if there is an election. A pork processing plant in South Dakota, the largest in the nation, is shuttered with 400 workers sick with the coronavirus. These folks went home and infected at least another 100 family members or close friends. The pork plant is owned by a Chinese investor but the outbreak was not caused by a person traveling back from China. South Dakota is involved with a study on the hydrochloroquine drug that President Trump continues touting as a treatment for the coronavirus. The IMF says this year will be worse than the Great Depression. Italy's active cases, the bell curve, sadly continues higher. Keep watching it since it will dictate the number of days past the confirmation date when the peak occurs. Sadly, all projected dates above will already have to be moved forward a couple days since Italy has yet to top out. The United States forging ahead with reopening the economy may be a grave mistake. Donnie may want to think June instead of May. As mentioned above, testing is key and it is very obvious that the countries and regions with great testing protocols and methods fare better. The focus should be on testing and masks. Tests and masks, Donnie, tests and masks. Tests and masks!!
Note Added 2:51 AM EST on Thursday, 4/16/20: King Donnie is at it again inserting his foot into his mouth. For what reason, who knows? At yesterday's so-called virus briefing, which is actually a campaign-style press conference each day (Donnie is likely champing at the bit to hit the campaign trail but this is on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, thus, Trump uses the bully pulpit each day as his campaign vehicle). President Trump proclaims, "We have passed the peak on new cases (in the US)." He paints a positive picture across the United States creating the image that the COVID-19 pandemic is under control. Wrong. Trump is dead-set on restarting the economy but he is wishing and hoping rather than actually getting the job done of defeating the virus. The politicians and media are great at their half-truth lies. Both the Republican Tribe and Democrat Tribe are guilty. Trump is partially correct taking his statement at face value. The new virus cases in certain regions of the United States are leveling off or dropping, however, in other places it is increasing. Placing this aside, the president is performing a much greater disservice to the American people painting a rosy picture when this is far from the case. The active case chart continues higher and is nowhere near peaking. The US is NOT at a peak in virus cases. Here is the link to the charts at Worldometer. See how Trump spins the narrative positively talking about new cases when in truth the active case chart keeps going up and up. Humans are corrupt animals. CNBC, a left-leaning news organization, and other liberal media outlets, say that Trump said, "We have passed the peak." Notice how the Democrat Tribe truncates the quote. If you take the quote this way, Trump is 100% wrong since the active case chart clearly proves this. It is all a hilarious example of human corruption in America and how the republican and democrat tribal warfare takes place daily but it is nothing to laugh at since people continue dying of the coronavirus each day. You would be smart to not hitch your wagon to either of these corrupt political parties; perhaps it is time to take the country in a new direction. The US will not peak in active cases until early May and you best keep your fingers crossed that is the outcome. Only 3 million US citizens have been tested for the COVID-19 virus. That is absolutely shameful since there are 330 million people in America. The reason South Korea had success at fighting the pandemic is that they had a task force already in place after the SARS and other outbreaks. South Korea immediately implemented an extensive testing plan and quarantined individuals infected. The US had a department in place to plan for pandemics but Trump eliminated it when he took office saying he is a businessman and does not want people sitting around not doing anything. He brazenly said that if we need them we will call them back. Trump likely sees the virus situation as his Waterloo and no matter how much he closes his eyes and says 'Daddy make it go away', it won't. In Italy, the active case graph continues to rise. The slope is becoming flatter but it has still not peaked. Keep watching it since this will dictate the timeline for the other countries above. After the new virus cases flatten for any region or country, and this is verified for five days (the confirmation date explained above), it takes over 20 days for the active chart to peak (Italy will give us the exact number of days since they should peak in active cases any day ahead) which represents the maximum case load on the medical facilities. Trump is clearly delusional with the coronavirus situation. Perhaps he cannot accept his fate? He must. Coronavirus is Trump's destiny. Testing and masks, Donnie, testing and masks!! Chop-chop.