Friday, July 31, 2020

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Bull-Bear Battle at the 200-Day MA Continues


The drama with volatility continues. The Federal Reserve is keeping the VIX beach ball underwater to maintain elevated stock prices and protect America's wealthy class. The Keystone Speculator's VIX 200-Day MA Cross Indicator, a key short-term bull versus bear market signal, remains in play.

Yesterday, the bears threatened some stock market downside as the VIX shot up through the 200-day MA at 26.95 verifying stock market trouble ahead. Alas, Chairman Powell changes into his skivvies and leaps into the swimming pool, wrestles with the VIX beach ball, and drags it under the 200 level of the water again to guarantee more bull market fun. Powell's fingers and toes look like wrinkled prunes since he has been holding that VIX beach ball underwater for so long.

The VIX is currently trading at 24.81 at about 4 AM EST US East Coast time. Tech earnings from AAPL, AMZN, FB and GOOGL are creating joy in the futures overnight especially in the Nazzy 100. S&P futures are up +7.

The Keybot the Quant algo is short right now but whipsawing this week due to the erratic price action. The quant identifies VIX 35.43 as a key bull-bear line in the sand. From the algorithm's perspective, a VIX below 35.43 currently makes for happy bulls.

If the VIX remains below the 200-day MA at 26.95, the bulls will keep slapping the bears around each day. If the VIX pops above 26.95, the stock market will be selling off and the bears will be slapping the bulls. If the VIX moves above 35.43, the wheels fall off and the stock market could potentially be crashing. Choose your poison. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/1/20: The bears push the VIX near 27, briefly, then fold like a cheap suit. The VIX collapses to 24.46 pumping stocks higher. The VIX 200-day MA line in the sand is at 27.01. The battle continues Monday.

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side this morning at SPX 3222. The erratic price behavior continues. Markets are in a chop right now. Watch UTIL 824, NYA 12452, GTX 1689.30 and XLF 23.55. As always, stay on guard for a whipsaw move back to the long side especially in these wild wild markets. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the bull side yesterday at SPX 3242. Utilities and the NYA index are dictating stock market direction right now which is a coin-flip either way. Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from on high today and tell global traders how to trade. The central bankers are the market. Watch UTIL 824, 835 and NYA 12453. Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side since the market is a real wild one as Iggy would sing. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Monday, July 27, 2020

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand


The stock market is riding the Crazy Train, all aboard. It is comical. The complacency, fearlessness and euphoric bullishness has been ongoing for a month. This can only happen in the age of central bankers; the New Gilded Age. The last tradeable low in the stock market was March (CPC moves above 1.20 to indicate panic and fear). The put/call ratio is in a steady downward channel ever since and now down at 0.63 matching the other multi-year record lows indicating a significant stock market top is printing right now.

Traders and investors are buying tech stocks, any stocks, gold, silver, bitcoin, the orgy is in full swing. Traders swig down Fed wine and buy any stock with a heartbeat. Once the tickers are pumped up, they make the rounds again pumpin' them up some more. Aunt Ruth, that runs the local bingo hall, withdrew the organization's money from the bank on Main Street, and with the full backing of the Ladies Guild, and Mayor Windbag, that threw in a few thou of his own money, bot AMZN stock. The blue-haired gal's are now visiting nursing homes asking if other seniors want to get in on the stock market action before it is too late.

Alejandro, worried that he was losing out on a good thing, sold his truck, that he used for performing odd jobs around town to make ends meet, and bot AAPL stock. He is bragging at Walt's Bar that he plans to buy a brand new truck in a couple months after the stock continues higher. Uncle Albert, who contracted covid and is laying in a hospital bed on a ventilator, was asked if tech stocks are still a buy and he tapped the side rail of the bed once to signify yes, so his daughter placed his entire life savings in tech and chip stocks. No one believes stocks will ever go down since the Fed and other central banks will always save the day. Moral hazard. The central bankers are the market.

The flat and topping 21-day MA and direction change in March nailed the bottom in stocks (green bar). The 21-day MA is now bottoming twice indicating a significant top in the stock market. The early June low looked like it was a done deal, remember that?, but then the Fed members ran to microphones and podiums promising plenty of accomodation with sprinkles of money-printing on top. At the same time, the Congress is providing stimulus plans, President Trump is touting more easy money for folks, all the liquidity sends stocks joyously higher. The vaccine hype continues pumping stocks relentlessly higher.

It is a Godot Top for these reasons but unlike Godot that never did show up, the selling will show up and at any minute, any hour, any day ahead. The complacency is so rampant and lasting a month, which is long, that it would not be surprising to see stocks collapse no matter what the Fed says this week and regardless of whether the consensus is hawkish or dovish. It is going to be a doozy. You may see a couple-few more days of choppiness but this egg is about to crack wide open. It is going to be fun to see how far she collapses. Due to the way this top is a long-time coming, a month or so, it would not be surprising to see the SPX down 200 to 400 points a couple weeks or so from now.

A flash crash or Black Tuesday, Black Wednesday, Black whatever day, is firmly on the table. These are the types of events a speculator lives for; there is lots of excitement coming. The scythes and sickles were sharpened out in the workshop today. Make sure you are prepared. Also, consider that for the February/March crash, the dollar skyrocketed as both stocks and gold plummeted. You are nuts if you do not, or have not already, trimmed back on all your longs and brought on short positions. The stock market is likely looking for a catalyst, or a spark, that will set the powder keg off and blow it all sky high. "Look out, Mama." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Gold Weekly Chart; Gold Price Hits Record High Above 1900; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended



During last week, the euro strengthens after the ECB meeting running up through 1.15, then 1.16, now taking out 1.17. The dollar collapses catapulting gold and silver to the stratosphere. The Fed meeting is on tap this week and traders expect more dovishness which supports the weak dollar theme. The US dollar drops to two year lows. Gold pops to 1934 (1970 COMEX). Gold bulls cheer the rally and rightfully so. Look at the move from Summer 2018 to present; from 1180 to 1940 a 760 point move or +64.4% in only 2 years.

Recapping from a few days ago, the gold daily chart was in full negative divergence so a smackdown was needed, and it occurs for a few days but the move lower was nothing to right home about. The gold weekly chart was developing negative divergence, and that continues above, but the MACD line remained long and strong so you knew gold would come up again for another higher high on the weekly basis. The 1820-1830 area seemed like a good target since Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's so the breach of 1780 hinted that 1820+ was coming.

Interestingly, the breach of 1800 hints that 2200 is coming in the future and you may as well call that 2220-2230. It likely will not be right away. When the hyperinflation parade hits, say 2 to 4 years out, currently the US and globe remains in this deflationary/disinflationary period, gold will skyrocket as will other asset classes. Gold will be 5K and more, the Dow will be at 50K running higher. The problem then will be that the dollar will be tissue paper. Gold breaches 1880 so 1920 is on the way which occurs. The 1980 level is key since that would open the door to 2020+.

The move last week is impressive that big ole white candlestick gaining +5%. Silver exploded +16% higher last week. The exact highs in gold are occurring at the exact lows with the dollar with the dixie, DXY or USD, at 93.83 losing the 94 level. That gets your attention since a breakdown in the dollar is in play. For Keystone's 80/20 Rule, 2's lead to 8's on the way down so a breach of 94.20 opens the door to 93.80 which is occurring now.

For the gold weekly chart, the green star shows the current price, call it 1940. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 1720, and rising, is on the table as well as the lower band at 1536. If you bring up a gold daily chart, you can see that the full price candlesticks are completely above the upper band which is a rarity; it means that the enthusiasm and euphoria for gold is off the charts. 

The RSI is coming off overbot levels during the last year and only a hair from overbot now, it will be today. The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback on the weekly basis. Gold has momentum now so it may take a couple weeks or so of choppiness to turn it around. The rising wedge is ominous since the collapses from such patterns can be epic. Gold is such an emotional trade for most folks that it almost seems inevitable to happen going forward. It surely will be a sight if gold tumbles 200 or 300 bucks, or more, after this spectacular upside pop and rally that continues currently. The US dollar is down to 93.80 now, check that, 93.79. Gold bulls cheer.

The red lines show the negative divergence developing. All the chart indicators are in negative divergence (wanting a multi-week pullback) except for the MACD line that remains long and strong so another matching or higher high in price, on the weekly basis, is needed. Gold may be gunning for the apex of the rising wedge pattern which would be an historic set-up. The RSI and money flow are trying to squeeze out some more juice but both have to take out the highs from February to be meaningful and create more price strength. Thus, watch the MACD line over the next couple weeks since it will identify the top in gold on the weekly basis. It will be anytime over the coming couple-few weeks, or sooner.

By sooner, you have to maintain respect for the price action in February/March during the record stock market crash. At the top months ago, the dollar weakened providing the last upside breath to stocks. Interestingly, the dollar then spiked straight vertical and not a little but a lot. This was on the fear about the pandemic and the global economy going into freefall. Many investors feel sanguine nowadays but it is likely misplaced optimism. The economic data would be expected to weaken going forward. The US may want workers to return to jobs but many of those jobs are toast. Global investors will seek the dollar at the next whiff of a global slowdown and trouble, so stay on guard for a repeat of earlier this year where the dollar skyrockets, stocks collapse, and gold collapses with stocks. In a downturn in stocks people are trying to raise money and sometimes they are selling gold to raise cash.

The long term chart shows the textbook inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern with head at 1050 and neckline at 1370 (difference of 320). There are two right shoulders. Price breaks above the neck so the 1690 level is targeted (1370+320) and achieved. The H&S is not textbook from the standpoint that a back test did not occur after the breakout above the neckline. Typically, price will come back down to back kiss the neck and then bounce and start the big rally higher. Gold stumbles around 1700-1750 for a while and then breaks out higher. The move in gold is parabolic for the last couple years as the Federal Reserve and other central bankers sell out souls.

Another interesting thing currently is that some investors are taking physical delivery of the yellow metal. This forces buying on the open market which fuels higher prices. So there are a lot of moving parts to it all. The Fed meeting is key in a couple days and traders may try to keep the dollar weak and stocks elevated into the press conference on Wednesday. Stocks are usually bullish into Fed meetings 80% of the time so the stock market bears have their work cut out for them.

The gold weekly chart says the top on the weekly chart continues approaching but it is not here yet. The negative divergence in the MACD line will tell you when the top is in, say a couple weeks out, price will probably chop for a while, and then a multi-week downturn for gold would be expected. Its a momo trade now. Again, be cautious, because stocks need to pullback hard and gold may do the same right away. If you enjoyed the big gold rally of course take money off the table. Keystone scalped GLD short for a flat trade days ago but is not in any gold trades now. The top in gold will be an attractive opportunity to short GLD or go long GLL, as soon as the MACD goes neggie d. GLD will likely take out its record high from 2011 today.

Gold 1936. The US dollar tries to stabilize at 93.80 for the last 90 minutes. Euro 1.1727. The euro runs higher. VIX 26.06. S&P futures +19. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, July 26, 2020

USD US Dollar Index Weekly Chart; Dollar Prints 2-Year Low; Oversold; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended


The ECB rate decision and press conference was Thursday 7/16/20. During last week, the euro moves higher so the dollar drops like a rock. The dollar/yen pair also drops (stronger yen). The dollar move is mainly against the euro and yen and not so much on the other currencies. The collapse in the dollar sends gold and silver to the moon. Gold was set to top out on the weekly chart about now or in the days ahead so this momentum push will likely push the multi-week top in gold forward a couple weeks.

The main question is how much downside strength is in the dollar going forward. Note how the dollar has dropped ever since late March which directly corresponds to when the stock market rally began. The lower dollar pumps commodities, oil, gold and silver higher and the respective stock derivatives and mining plays in the sector which pumps the broad stock market higher. A weaker dollar is the stock market's best friend.

The dollar is at lows not seen since September 2018; almost 2 years ago. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band at 98.6 is on the table and upper band at 102.58. The RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics are all sloping lower which forecasts lower lows in the dollar in the few weeks ahead. The ROC is positively diverged and stochastics are overbot which may help the dollar receive a dead-cat bounce on the weekly basis. However, after any bounce, the dollar will become soggy again and seek out matching lows again on this weekly basis.

The trend lower in the dollar for the last 4 months is NOT a strong trend lower as evidenced by the ADX. The last strong trend was the upside rally during 2018 but that petered out in the Fall 2018. The negative cross occurs on the Aroon which predicts more bearish action ahead for the dollar but the red line is already pegged at one hundo with nowhere to go but down which is bullish for the dollar. Price is extended to the downside below the moving averages so a mean reversion higher is needed. The currencies, gold and silver trade on emotion and central bank news; this will continue.

A weaker dollar will continue to help the stock market as well as gold, silver and other PM's, however, an interesting fractal (blue square) is in play. Back when everyone was drunk as skunks buying stocks with reckless abandon in January and early February, the dollar ran from band to band to the downside violating the lower band. Wheeee! Whooopie! Everyone was happy buying stocks without a care since the dollar will keep dropping. Boooiiinnnggg. The dollar spikes during early March crushing the stock market and gold. Be on guard for this happening again.

The dollar is difficult to forecast due to its 2 years of sideways choppiness and susceptibility to any news bite any minute. The best estimate is sideways choppiness at these lows for one to three weeks then a move higher in the dollar. It all depends on when positive divergence forms with the indicators or if a news bite hits that sends the dollar radically higher. The dollar is at 94.4. Euro 1.1653. Gold 1907. When the dollar printed the LOD on Friday that was the exact time that the 1900 print occurred with gold. In the last few days,the euro pops up through 1.15, then through 1.16 now through 1.165.

The 2-day Fed meeting begins Tuesday with Chairman Powell on tap Wednesday afternoon. Stocks are usually bullish into the Fed decisions. The dollar weakens as traders anticipate a dovish Fed and more easy money. The dollar also moves lower on escalating tensions between the US and China and the ongoing bush league handling for the coronavirus pandemic and add on top of this mix the presidential election uncertainty. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Saturday, July 25, 2020

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Bulls and Bears Continue Battling at the 40-Week MA at 12470



The Keystone Speculator's NYA Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross Cyclical Market Indicator is a key bull-bear battleground currently. The NYA 40-week MA is at 12470 and is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull, or cyclical bear, market going forward (weeks and months ahead). Thus, NYA 12470 takes on huge importance. It tells you how the stock market direction will move not only in the near-term but also into year-end.

For now, the NYA is at 12462 below the 40-week MA so the stock market remains in the cyclical bear market pattern since March. It is a huge deal if the bulls can take out 12470 to the upside; it will prove that they have the beans to take stocks to new record highs. Of course if the bulls stall here, and the NYA begins rolling over lower, the situation could get extremely ugly very fast. Trading volumes are trailing off as price floats higher.

The Keystone Speculator's SPX Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross Cyclical Market Indicator is another key market signal. The SPX is at 3216 well above the 12-month MA at 3029 indicating a cyclical bull market since May. Both the NYA 40-week cross and SPX 12-month cross must agree to verify stock market intermediate term direction. As you can see, the SPX says stocks are in a cyclical bull but the NYA says they are in a cyclical bear. The market pushed the NYA price higher so it will decide now if it wants to jump into the bull camp with the SPX 12-month, or not.  It is sunshine and roses if the NYA moves above 12470. It is doom and gloom if the NYA fails here and trends lower. If so, this will likely set up a test for the SPX at the 3029 number where the bears will determine if they have the juice to take stocks lower. If SPX 3029 gives way, the stock market will be on crash watch.

The NYA 1-minute chart is shown above to show the bull desperation during the last hour of trading yesterday. The bulls know they must push the NYA above the 40-week MA at 12470 right now or they are screwed. It is now or never. The bulls stormed the bear castle at 2:30 PM EST but were smacked backwards. The bulls regroup and assault the 12470 resistance again only to receive another smackdown. The bears are having fun. Each time the bull's head pokes above 12470 to see if the coast is clear, thwack, the bull's are hit with a hickory axe handle. The bulls, dizzy from their tries at 12470, muster up the courage and strength to try once more before the weekend. At 3:10 PM they run enthusiastically at the bears and the 12470 victory line in the sand knowing the Fed has their back but the bulls are cut down like cannon fodder. The bulls are in retreat. The NYA tumbles to 12427. The bulls crawl to a smartphone and ask Fed Chairman Powell to crush volatility to save and stabilize the day. He does.

Watch the NYA out of the gate Monday morning. As the NYA goes, so goes the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart; Bulls and Bears Continue Battling at the 200-Day MA at 26.79


The Keystone Speculator's VIX 200-Day MA Cross indicator, a key short-term market signal, is sitting on the fence. Friday's red candlestick shows the equal fight between bulls and bears that straddle the key 200-day MA at 26.79. The bulls win on Friday closing the VIX at 25.84, below 26.79, so this will provide lift to equities next week, if it holds. The stock market (SPX) and volatility (VIX) move inverse to each other about 90% or more of the time.

When the bulls saw they were losing ground on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell ran to the closet in his office at the Eccles Building retrieving his shiny leather jackboots. He was pleased to see that Charlie Evans did a great job with the spit-shine. Powell quickly pulls the jackboots over his Wal-Mart socks and begins kicking Uncle Vix, the guardian of volatility. VIX drops to the ground where Powell then holds his jackboot against the throat of volatility keeping it depressed. Voila. Stocks stabilize on Friday and go into the weekend without a major last minute selling event taking place. The Fed is always quick to place its jackboots on the throat of volatility, keeping it down, and maintaining elevated stock indexes of course to protect the wealthy elite class that own large equity portfolios. It's called crony capitalism.

During the entire stock market rally off the bottom, the VIX did not move below the 200-day MA until the last few days. That simply does not happen. For such a robust rally with equities, the VIX should be under the 200. What that verifies is the massive power of the Federal Reserve, other central banks, and government stimulus in pumping stocks to the stratosphere fueled by liquidity out the wazoo. There is so much money laying around everywhere, the world is awash in central bank liquidity, that folks are picking it up and saying why not buy some AAPL, AMZN, some NFX, maybe TSLA; when money is cheap and readily available, especially for over 11 years, people become complacent and start investing stupidly, and buying and financing frivolous and unnecessary products and equipment (bad decisions). Obviously, this stuff ends in tears. Don't be stupid.

So the table is set for Monday morning. Bulls win going forward if the VIX remains below 26.79. Bears win if the VIX pops above 26.79 moving higher. Stock market weakness is long overdue because of the one month of complacency as evidenced by the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios. The Fed keeps the VIX beachball underwater for now but it may slip out of their hands next week. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST Monday morning and will provide a heads-up on how the US trading session will move (inversely) that does not begin trading until 6-1/2 hours later. As volatility goes, the stock market will go in the opposite direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/27/20, at 7:05 AM EST: The VIX is at 26.33 with S&P futures up +13. The VIX is fluctuating above and below the 200 deciding what to do today.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short at munch time yesterday at SPX 3213. The utilities and NYA index drop into the bear camp creating the stock market weakness and these parameters remain key for next week. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Friday, July 24, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14




By K E Stone

Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, released from the Wuhan laboratories, has infected 15.7 million people around the world murdering 637K souls. 9.5 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 4.2 million Americans (1.3% of the 330 million US population) murdering over 147K United States citizens. 2.0 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (27%) of the coronavirus cases and one-quarter (23%) of the deaths. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Mexico, Chile, Spain, UK, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Italy. South Africa moves higher on the list. Mexico also moves one spot higher and struggles to contain the virus. The outbreaks in the US, Brazil, India (South Asia), South Africa, Peru, Chile, Mexico and the Middle East continue spinning out of control.

Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are dealing with a second wave of coronavirus. Australia is in the southern hemisphere experiencing wintertime as the northern hemisphere enjoys summertime. The coronavirus is expected to make a nasty reappearance as the weather cools and the Aussie’s are living this now.

The Australia daily new cases chart above clearly shows the second wave progression. The land down under did a great job handling the first wave. The peak new case days were 3/22/20 and 3/29/20 and the peak in the active cases chart (not shown), which identifies the maximum strain on the healthcare system, occurred on 4/4/20. It was impressive to see the active cases bell curve peak and quickly roll over in April. Can the Aussie’s do it again? Australia, Hong Kong and Japan will serve as test cases for the second wave of coronavirus. Other countries will be watching and learning.

Unfortunately, the mainland Chinese communists are putting the screws to Hong Kong so the usefulness of the virus data for that region may be limited. Hong Kong’s new cases are spiking wildly higher overtaking the 3/29/20 new case high from the first wave. The new case numbers are significantly higher than the first wave while the Australia new case chart above shows new cases about on par with the first wave, so far. Ditto with Japan’s new cases now matching the highs from April. The filthy Beijing commie leadership, led by Dictator Xi, may be releasing more virus in Hong Kong; you never know. Never trust a communist.

Japan’s active cases chart peaked 13 days after the peak in new cases. Thus, if 7/23/20 remains the peak in new cases right now, the top in active cases may occur on 8/5/20. The death charts for Australia and Hong Kong ramp higher although keep in mind that Hong Kong has only 16 virus deaths and Australia 130 during the pandemic. Japan’s death chart is flattish at about 1,000 deaths. It will be interesting to see how these three nations battle the COVID-19 second wave.

India is another nation that is hit hard currently. The daily new cases, active cases and death charts are going parabolic (vertical). May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls. India’s active cases bell curve would not be expected to flatten out and roll over until late August and this is if the daily new cases immediately stop increasing. India’s healthcare workers and medical equipment will be under peak stress during the entire month of August. India is going to need help from the United States and others. Good luck India.

The United States remains a coronavirus soap opera with an odd entanglement of politics and science mixed with chaos, crises, confusion, disinformation and disorganization. The pace of news these days is outrageous; the quickening of modern society. Coronavirus hospitalizations are rising in 41 of the 50 states.

The US had only 15 total coronavirus cases on 2/15/20. Then 75 cases on 3/1/20. Then over 1,000 cases on 3/10/20. Then over 5K total cases on 3/16/20. Then 56K on 3/24/20. The acceleration of the spread of the virus is scary. There are over 100,000 total cases on 3/27/20.  Over 221K people are infected on 4/1/20. During March, the US total cases ran from 75 people to 221,000.

On 4/27/20, America is over 1 million total cases. The first US case was identified in the state of Washington on 1/21/20. Thus, the US went from 1 case to 1 million cases in only 96 days. That is scary that a bug can travel that fast but it gets worse. On 6/7/20, there are over 2 million total cases. On 7/6/20, there are 3 million cases. On 7/21/20, there are over 4 million cases. Thus, it took America 96 days to reach 1 million total cases and then only 41 days to reach 2 million. Then only 29 days to hit 3 million and then only 15 days to tag 4 million total cases. The US went from 1 case to over 4 million total cases in only 181 days; a half-year, 26 weeks.

Considering the long ongoing learning curve with COVID-19, President Trump is probably doing about as good a job as anyone else could do although he does have a notable losing streak of decisions. Trump’s smartest decision was the travel ban against China in late January but it was not enforced to any great extent so people leaked through and the virus lands in the US via Asia and Europe anyway. The big error the president made was thinking that the problem was solved once he made the travel ban.

March was a crazy month with the lockdown and massive layoffs and the economic collapse. An all hands on deck approach took place during March and April and Americans did their part to keep the virus at bay so as not to impose an emergency burden on the healthcare system (this is why the active cases bell curve charts are key; the curve must flatten and roll over on this chart to show that the worst is over for the medical system). Unfortunately, Americans became too impatient and instead of holding on in isolation for another couple weeks to snuff-out the virus, people ran to the beach, and parties, and campaign rallies, and protests, coughing on each other, during May and early June creating today’s trouble.

The mistake that Dr Fauci made during March was telling people that masks do not help so it is not necessary to run out and hoard masks. Fauci said this because America was not prepared for the pandemic with PPE (personal protective equipment) and he wanted the masks to go to the healthcare workers. That is a noble goal but why not just be honest with the American people?

What a poor opinion the US government has on its citizens that their decision was to lie to the American people about masks instead of simply telling the truth. Americans would not have hoarded masks. Sure, you will have opportunists, but it would have been far better to level with people and tell them that the medical personnel need the equipment. After a few weeks, the leaders did come clean but by then the damage is done. Mistrust appears from the beginning and is hard to rectify. If the government does not trust its own people, do not look for the people to trust the government. People are stressed-out from the uncertainty and confusion.

Trump reduced and/or eliminated folks involved with pandemic preparation during one of his executive order signings. He is equally at fault as is President Obama over inadequate supplies. Trump likes to say the “cupboard was bare” but this is a lie, which seems to be a routine daily thing for Donnie. There were plenty of supplies, even 19K ventilators, but not enough. Supplies have shelf life’s and inventory needs rotated so Trump should have been involved with pandemic preparation during his presidency but he was not. That is a mistake on his part.

Within the United States, both the new cases and active cases ramp higher over the last couple weeks. The greatest number of total COVID-19 cases are in New York followed by California, Florida, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, South Carolina, Alabama, Indiana, Washington, Minnesota, Connecticut, Mississippi and Wisconsin. Georgia leapfrogs Arizona. Tennessee and Virginia move higher on the list. All 25 states are quickly approaching or well over 50,000 total cases. New York is at 437K total cases. New York, California, Florida and Texas are quickly approaching or over 400K total cases; the four worst states. All four are coastal states which receive the airline and ship traffic from other nations so it makes sense that they are hit hard.

Tragically, nursing homes, meat-packing facilities, cruise ships, prisons, adult and child camps, water and amusement parks, the US military and VA facilities are hit exceptionally hard by the virus. The Navajo Nation (Native Americans), Latinos and blacks are hit proportionally harder by the virus.

President Trump finally reverses course after a couple months of virus denial. Comically, King Donnie and Prince Pence were the Baghdad Bob’s of the coronavirus saga proclaiming that the worst is over and all is fine when in view behind them, doctors and nurses are pushing coronavirus patients on gurneys. The president performs an about-face now touting the use of face masks, even tweeting a picture of himself wearing a mask, with his cute little presidential seal sewn into the side, after many weeks of refusing to wear a mask and downplaying their effectiveness. The president also announces plans to restart the coronavirus press conferences that ended in late April.

Trump is changing direction due to his weakening poll numbers. He also shook-up and adjusted his campaign staff. Trump was embarrassed at the Tulsa rally duped into believing that hundreds of thousands of people wanted to see him there. A second stage was erected and big plans made but as it turns out, young folks across America signed up for the event with zero intent of showing up. The social internet and tech guru Parscale was demoted by Trump for becoming super excited about the massive interest he was seeing with the president’s rally not knowing that the people signing up were doing it as a joke. Parscale continues wiping egg off his face.

The prior coronavirus press conferences ended in late April. Trump became a laughing stock repeating the same statements over and over at the pressers. He bragged about producing and supplying ventilators every 10 minutes. The pressers turned into campaign speeches. Trump’s handlers convinced him to nix the press conferences as poll numbers dropped.

The November 3 presidential election (US elections are always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in the month of November) is only 102 days away; 14 weeks. Republican President “King Donnie” Trump seeks reelection, another 4-year term, and must defeat the democrat challenger, former Vice President “Sleepy Joe” Biden. Donnie cranks up the virus press conferences since he plans to sneak in campaign stuff along the way; after all, he owns the bully pulpit.

The US presidential election is billed as the most important election in history. It’s really not. Americans will simply be choosing which silver-haired white guy oversees the ongoing collapse of the crony capitalism system. It will likely not make much difference who is in the top job going forward. The US will likely experience a multi-year transition into a Nordic-style model of socialism and capitalism that will once again provide opportunities for the huddled masses especially with removing the healthcare burden.

America’s wealthy privileged class used the rigged crony capitalism system to enrich themselves while destroying the middle class starting when President Ronnie Ray-gun won election in 1980. Reagan busted the unions and opened the door for the huddled masses to work hard each day forward for peanuts. The sinking middle class was told that the benefit to losing some jobs is all the cheap stuff available at Wal-Mart (products from China). Americans cheered for the low prices which would stretch the family budget. The dolts did not realize that eventually every industry would succumb to global competition one by one starting with textiles, steel, autos, etc..

Americans lost their high-paying middle-class jobs from the 1980’s to present day replaced by overseas slave labor. The US politicians and corporate executives applaud the destruction of the middle class since they could shove millions, even billions, of dollars in their pockets due to stock price appreciation. The big box retail stores with cheap China prices led to the closure of local Ma and Pa stores. Jobs and a community’s identity are thrown into the garbage can along with the cat litter. Americans happily shot themselves in the face with a lead-filled Chinese pistol.

Workers unimpaired by jobs moving overseas wanted the lower prices at Wal-Mart but as the industries were picked off one by one, like a frog boiling slowly, these workers lost their high-paying middle class jobs as well and when they looked around for help no one was there. Over the last few decades as the US middle class was sold down the river, the wealthy elite privileged class amassed great wealth creating the New Gilded Age. America’s crony capitalism system dies from greed, corruption and non-transparency.

The reason that the US is falling into social unrest and violence is that a middle class no longer exists; it was the glue and fabric that used to hold the nation together. The middle class was the steadying force that helped resolve political and societal disputes on common ground. Nowadays, since the Great Recession, millions of people no longer have anything else to lose; they already lost it all. Some men have turned to alcoholism ashamed they cannot provide for their families. Spouse and child abuse rises in recent years. Bad things happen when the population gives up hope. Some will become desperate. Desperate people do desperate things.

On Tuesday evening, 7/21/20, Washington, DC, is a buzz about the first virus press conference. The door opens and Trump is not wearing a face mask as he takes the stage and begins talking. Trump attended a fund raising event as well and did not wear a face mask. The president is trying to change his ways and promote the use of face coverings but he is already reverting to his old ways. He says he is tested daily so he does not need to wear a mask. As usual, people are left confused. It’s another day of amateur hour.

Hours earlier, the press spokeswoman for Trump said the president is tested for the virus every day and sometimes multiple times per day. Comically, Trump says he is tested every two or three days but can never recall being tested multiple times in one day which identifies his spokesperson as a liar. She was just making stuff up that she was telling to the press. Even funnier, Trump said last week he is tested daily but now he says ever couple days; he is simply making stuff up. People are becoming concerned about the Trumpster since the confusing and contradictory statements each day create confusion and uncertainty, which creates fear and angst, and stress.

Trump begins speaking and the new press conferences are sounding a lot like the old ones. The president says the cupboard was bare of supplies that he had to replenish. This has been fact-checked as a lie. There were about 19K ventilators in supply from President Obama’s term. Trump cut the pandemic department during one of his ceremony executive order signings. Items, such as the masks, should be turned over inventory-wise (shelf-life) every four to five years. Trump should have been addressing those supplies during his presidency not once an event occurs; he has to accept blame, which he will not.

Trump begins talking about the ventilators again. Oh vey. The president brags, “We have tremendous amounts of supplies” and can ship quickly. The question is why haven’t you? Hospitals in the south are complaining about PPE shortages so send the stuff out. This is why Americans are hopelessly confused. News reports interview personnel that say they need certain supplies but King Donnie says everyone has plenty and besides they can give anyone what they want. It is all the same old crap occurring. Trump says all the states have their needs met but it is not true.

President Trump provides statistics on the virus but falls short again. Where’s the Power Point bullet points so the numbers can register in people’s heads? Where’s the whiteboard or charts on an easel? Donnie has buptkis. Comically, he says in future press conferences he will have charts and so forth. It must have been too much effort to take five minutes to make a few slides in Power Point. His son Barron could have produced a slideshow for him. Trump rattles off the statistics but they go in one ear and out the other.

Trump admits that the coronavirus outbreak “will get worse before it gets better.” Finally, some honesty which will help people’s perception of the orange-head. He says, “We have a relentless focus.” Trump brags about testing again and says America has higher case numbers than other nations but that is because we perform more testing. Not true. Comparing the numbers on a common basis does not show that America’s testing program is superior to all others. In fact, the testing and trace program failed as evidenced by the outbreak across the south and west.

Trump says 7,000 national guard troops and healthcare workers are available to assist any state that needs help. He says when the vaccine is available, a general will be in charge of distributing it across the United States as fast as possible. There sure is a lot of military involvement in things nowadays and considering that Federal agents can now detain Americans off the street without probable cause or due process, shoving them into unmarked vans and driving away to unknown locations (Portland), the United States is looking a lot like China and Russia.

The press conference is odd since there are no doctors on stage providing information. Fauci, redfield and Birx are all MIA. Dr Fauci says he was not invited so the baby games between Fauci and Trump continue. The president says Dr Birx is on the other side of the door which is very funny if you think about it. CNN does not broadcast the press conference until the Q&A begins. FoxNews covers the entire presser.

Trump brags about the stock market rally and proclaims that stocks rise big again today. Wrongo. The Dow is up but the S&P 500, which is the US stock market, is flat and the Nasdaq stock indexes are negative. Our Donnie always plays fast and loose with the facts like all the rest of the politicians on both sides of the aisle. Trump concludes the press conference after about 40 minutes and says he plans on talking about other subjects at the pressers such as immigration and the economy. So much for the new virus press conferences that will now morph into campaign speeches like the old ones. America is operating at a high level of dysfunction these days.

On Wednesday, 7/22/20, the US announces the closure of the Chinese embassy in Houston, Texas. China warns of retaliation. The stock market dips on the deteriorating US-China relationship. President Trump holds another press conference.

On Thursday, 7/23/20, recent economic data is deteriorating. The weekly Unemployment Claims data is released at its regular time at 8:30 AM EST and Claims are up a big 1.4 million the first bump higher since the March swoon. Anecdotally, this one data point indicates a sluggish economy ahead with more layoffs on tap. Last week was 1.3 million Claims. There are also more people that worked the gig-type jobs applying for the special Pandemic Unemployment Assistance funds. The four-month trend of declining Claims ends. Over 52.6 million people filed for unemployment assistance during the last 18 weeks and over 20 million remain unemployed.

The republican-controlled Senate, led by Majority Leader McConnell, is having difficulty agreeing on a path forward with the new stimulus bill. The democrat-controlled House wants $3 trillion spent on unemployment assistance and other items. The Senate wants a $1 trillion package that includes protections for companies from being sued over the virus (if an employee returns to work and becomes ill).

President Trump, in one of his bonehead decisions this year, proclaims that he wants a payroll tax cut as part of the package. This appears to be nixed today. Neither republicans or democrats expected that to be included. Trump looks stupid for ever pushing the idea. With 20 million people out of work and becoming desperate, King Donnie thinks it is best to provide a tax cut for the people working. Go figure. Perhaps Trump knew it would get shot down and now he will tout that as one of his campaign promises going forward. Isn’t it sickening that politicians always put their own business before the people’s business? That’s one of the reasons crony capitalism is crumbling. Trump has been boasting about the recent run-up in the stock market so he still likes using it as a gauge of his performance.

Smoke rises from the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Texas. The US tells the Chinese occupying the facility to vacate within 72 hours. The filthy communists are in the parking lot burning records. The fire department arrives but is not permitted to enter the facility. The US says the consulate has been under investigation and found to be involved in IP theft. China will surely retaliate by probably closing one of the six American Consulates in China.

President Trump conducts a third press conference in as many days. As he enters the Whitehouse press room, Dr Birx from the NIH, enters last and takes a seat off stage. Trump refuses to allow the doctors to speak even though it is supposed to be a virus press conference with medical updates. Trump proclaims over the last two days that the doctors brief him on all matters and then he comes on stage to report to the people. The president says, “It is working out good.” What? For who? The stuff is hilarious if not so tragic. Trump does not grasp the fact that Americans would rather hear the medical information from an actual doctor instead of an orange-headed bloviating showman. The new press conferences are looking a lot like the old pressers with Donnie downplaying the severity of the virus and filtering the doctor’s information.

Trump announces plans to cancel the RNC convention in Florida, one of the hardest hit states that will continue dealing with covid trouble through August. Moving the republican convention from North Carolina to Florida was another bonehead decision by the Campaigner-in-Chief. Trump and Desantis (Florida Governor) were drinking the Kool-Aid convincing each other that the worst was over for Florida but in reality had only just begun. Trump says he is thinking about the people of Florida when he cancels the event. No he’s not. He moved the convention, and considers Florida his second home now, because it is a key election state. Trump figured by using Mar-a-Lago for presidential business he would establish a strong beachhead in the peninsula state that would lead to reelection victory. Instead, Trump may be relegated to conducting mainly a virtual convention, like the democrats committed to for their convention. Donnie will not receive adoration fuel from his faithful audience.

Recent polls show Biden ahead of Trump in Florida with one poll showing a 14-point lead by Biden. Florida may want to jettison Trump rather than keep him around. House Leader Pelosi calls the coronavirus the “Trump Virus” obviously trying to paint the president in a negative light ahead of the election. The campaigns are going to get a lot dirtier and nastier.

The president says schools in the coronavirus hotspot areas may have to delay opening in yet another reversal by Trump. He has been resolute in saying schools will reopen even threatening to eliminate funding for those not obeying his decrees. That is changing now that he is offering delays. There is no cohesive national plan for handling the virus. Trump’s strategy is crisis management; he simply moves from crisis to crisis handling each fire without any pre-planning strategy to prevent the fires in the first place. Parents are stressed-out over the school situation since they need the kids there so they can work but at the same time are fearful that the child will bring home the virus to an older parent or grandparent as well as infecting teachers. It’s a mess.

Microsoft founder and billionaire Bill Gates criticizes President Trump saying many mistakes were made. If Gates had his way, schools would be closed until Fall 2021. Gates said the future virus vaccine will likely require several shots. 13 nuns die over the last few weeks at a convent in Livonia, Michigan. CBS News reports that the sisters said the virus came through like “wildfire.” Lord, open up those Pearly Gates, there’s a baker’s dozen coming at you.

The US death chart is shown above since it is the focus of attention by the president these days. Clearly, the 7-day moving average is traveling higher so Trump and Pence can no longer say the death rate is decreasing. They realize that so the focus now is on the total numbers with the president touting the improvement from about 2,500 deaths per day back in April to about 1,000 now; so deaths are cut to less than half of the April highs. That is not saying much but Donnie and Pence are covering their wrinkled flesh with this tiny loin cloth as best they can. The total death curve is sloping higher now which is not good news. Some scientists believe that 400K people will be dead by the end of the year.

On Friday, 7/24/20, today, China retaliates against the closing of the Houston consulate by ordering the closure of the US Consulate in Chengdu located in southwestern China. This consulate acts as a gateway to visit Tibet so access to that region will be far more difficult although it has not been that easy under current conditions. The US-China tensions escalate as the tit-for-tat battles continue. Small trade and economic battles many times lead to large shooting wars.

The US escalates the tension with China by arresting a Chinese citizen at the San Francisco Consulate on suspicions of fraud. The stock market remains indifferent to negative news since the Federal Reserve and US government are providing boatloads of stimulus money which pumps stocks higher making for a happy wealthy class.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 14 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This fourteenth article is published on Friday, 7/24/20.

The countries and US states are listed below from best to worst based on the spread of the virus so the hot spots around the world and in America are easily identified. The coronavirus articles are written in real-time so it is interesting to see the progression of knowledge, thought, hysteria and scientific information during each week of the 2020 worldwide coronavirus pandemic.

The health organizations (WHO, CDC and NIH), Trump Administration and Congress continue struggling on how to handle and contain the COVID-19 pandemic. All the following articles in the coronavirus series below can be accessed through the blog site archives or by searching on the site or internet.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

Watch to see if Australia, Hong Kong and/or Japan can snuff out their second waves as quickly as the first. Hong Kong had a peak in the active cases bell curve only 9 days after the peak high in new cases. Australia’ active cases peaked out in only 5 days after the new cases peak and Japan was only 13 days. Thus, if the three nations can repeat their first wave performance, Hong Kong’s active cases bell curve should peak on 8/1/20 , Australia’s target is on Monday, 7/27/20 and Japan’s active cases chart should peak-out and flatten on 8/5/20. This may be wishful thinking. It would be disappointing for all other nations if these three countries, that fought the virus so well in the first wave, are struggling with the second wave. It would mean the other countries, including the US, are really screwed in the months ahead.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. The news is not good for many countries and states as highlighted below. Several of the active cases charts are going parabolic (vertical) which means trouble is here to stay for a solid month or two.

The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for forecasting purposes. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.

The peak new case date for the US keeps getting pushed forward currently at 7/23/20. The new cases remain elevated day after day so the peak in active cases will come later. Adding 28 days is a target date of 8/20/20 for the flattening of the active cases curve as long as the new cases chart does not peak anymore. Healthcare workers will be laboring into Labor Day. Sadly, more medical workers are becoming infected with covid. Sooner or later, the parasite (coronavirus) finds a way to get into its host (human).

Below are some of the remaining global hotspots with their projected peaks in active cases dates provided.

Saudi Arabia
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (peak occurs 7/12/20)


Egypt
6/19/20 New Case Peak Date
7/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/22/20)

Sweden (data is suspect)
6/24/20 New Case Peak Date
7/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in; lack of data)

Ukraine
6/26/20 New Case Peak Date
7/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/20/20)

Bangladesh
7/2/20 New Case Peak Date
7/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Indonesia
7/9/20 New Case Peak Date
8/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/18/20)

Philippines
7/16/20 New Case Peak Date
8/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Honduras
7/20/20 New Case Peak Date
8/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Kenya
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

United States
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Colombia
7/18/20 New Case Peak Date
8/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Kazakhstan
7/18/20 New Case Peak Date
8/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Mexico
7/19/20 New Case Peak Date
8/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bolivia
7/19/20 New Case Peak Date
8/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Brazil
7/22/20 New Case Peak Date
8/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Romania
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

South Africa
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Argentina
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

El Salvador
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

India
7/23/20 New Case Peak Date
8/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Asia (Indonesia and Philippines) remains a hotspot. Ditto South Asia with India and Bangladesh. Peru is seeing a steady uptick in new cases and the active cases curve is curling higher hinting at trouble ahead for this copper-rich nation. Peru may have to reappear on the list above next time. Mexico and Central and South America continue dealing with the covid nightmare. Mexico and the southern United States is a highly infected region. South Africa is another hotspot. Kazakhstan is a new addition to the list and there is concern that the region may be impacted by a different strain of coronavirus.

Sadly, as per the target date above generated by the Keystone Model, the United States will not see a peak in the active cases curve, identifying the peak stress on the medical system and personnel, until August 20. Good luck to all you fine doctors and nurses. It usually takes another week or two for the right side of the bell shape to begin forming with a dramatic drop-off in cases and hospitalizations so America’s healthcare workers face a tough period now through Labor Day. Maybe a lot of you can then take some time off to recharge your batteries in September. Hang in there.

For America, the troubled states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top dozen states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are New York with over 438K total cases, California, Florida, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Louisiana with 104K total cases.

Maryland (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 5/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/16/20 (as of 7/24/20, chart continues higher)

Virginia (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 5/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (as of 7/24/20, chart continues higher)

Arizona
New Case Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20

Florida
New Case Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/9/20

Tennessee
New Case Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20

Washington (state)
New Case Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20

Texas
New Case Peak Date 7/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/12/20

Utah
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20

Idaho
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20

Nevada
New Case Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/14/20

Montana
New Case Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/14/20

Ohio
New Case Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/14/20

Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/15/20

Oregon
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20

South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20

Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20


Louisiana
New Case Peak Date 7/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/17/20

Kansas
New Case Peak Date 7/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/17/20

Missouri
New Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20

Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20

California
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20

North Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20

Alaska
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20

Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20

Wisconsin
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20

Alabama
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20

New Mexico
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20

Nearly every state listed above has its projected peak in active cases moved farther into the future over the last few days. New Mexico deteriorates badly over the last week. Nevada worsens. Alabama spikes itself higher into more covid trouble. Alabama better prepare quickly since the state may be blindsided by the strain on the medical system during August. California deteriorated moving lower on the list.

San Jose, California, and Miami, Florida, are identified as hotspot cities by Dr Birx which works directly with Fauci at the NIH. Birx says the virus task force are tracking 10 other cities as potential hotspots including New Orleans, Las Vegas, St Louis, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Cleveland, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Columbus and Baltimore. The Pittsburgh area data is stable so it is odd that it is on the list but the city does have a democrat mayor so perhaps the list has a little bit to do with politics as well as science?

Birx says that Florida, Texas and California are "Three New York's." New York was hit hard with coronavirus and she is making the point that these three states are equally bad as New York was at its peak. This has been true over the last month, however, as evidenced by the data above, Florida, Texas and Arizona are moving up on the list which indicates conditions improving a hair although the strain on the medical systems will continue into mid-August. California remains in a tough pickle. Folks must be doing a lot of partying in La La Land, the land of fruits and nuts.

Arkansas and Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worse. Wisconsin is in bad shape and that is where the DNC (democrat) convention will be held in mid-August although it was always planned as mainly a virtual event. The RNC (republican) convention is one week after the DNC convention and will now include virtual components since the Florida main event is cancelled.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their medical personnel and equipment.

After six months of knowing that there was a problem with a pneumonia-like disease spreading in Wuhan, China, home of two bioweapons laboratories, the United States is in the worst shape to date. The virus data worsened for the most troubled states across the board. Coronavirus is spreading out of control over the last couple weeks. Early June was only a lull period; it was thought to be the light at the end of the tunnel but it turned out to be an oncoming freight train loaded with coronavirus instead.

President Trump is receiving heat today over the restarting of schools. Some folks are complaining that Trump cancelled the Florida convention but he still wants kids to go to school. Nonetheless, the presdient keeps pushing to open schools and college campuses. The back to school situation is a mess and the angst and stress for parents, kids and teachers will increase each day forward.

Fauci warns about forcing teachers back to work since many may become infected with coronavirus. Fauci and Birx say there is still a lot to learn about children transmitting COVID-19. Doctors and scientists cannot yet definitively say that kids under 10 years old transmit the virus less than those older than 10. Dr Fauci throws out he first pitch at a Washington Nationals baseball game that kicks off a truncated baseball season. Trump's orange head turns red with envy. Public officials view themselves as celebrities as would be expected during these bread and circus days. Some Americans are turned off by the kneeling stuff during the playing of the National Anthem before sporting events and other political garbage infiltrating sports and do not bother to watch the game. Fauci threw like a girl. Nope, that is insulting to the smart, athletic and pretty ladies. Any woman can easily throw better than Fauci. The ball dribbled off to the left after bouncing on the ground one-half the distance to homeplate; a complete embarrassment. It looks like Fauci never threw anything in his life, not a frisbee, not a football, not a newspaper from a boyhood paper route and not even a bag of peanuts.

The virus saga drags on and folks realize the covid inconvenience is here to stay for many more months. People are not complaining to any great extent since they see folks dying from the disease. Fauci says that a vaccine will likely not be available until early 2021. He does hope for constructive treatments and therapies to be identified in the coming weeks and implemented before the end of the year.

Remember to boost your immune system with vitamins and supplements of course in consultation with your doctor. A worthwhile regimen is to take Zinc, Vitamin A, Vitamin C and Vitamin D-3 daily which will keep your immune system strong during the age of covid. All four of these are inexpensive and available from any local store. In addition, it would be wise to take a multi-vitamin, COQ10, turmeric and fish oil. All these supplements and vitamins should be part of your daily routine anyway. Anyone not taking turmeric daily is a fool. Even funnier, most Americans are popping several prescription drugs per day like a common street addict and yet they may pooh-pooh and denigrate a miracle supplement like turmeric. Society acts odd during the ongoing bread and circus days. At a minimum, to keep your body 100% attentive to covid, it would be extremely intelligent to simply take a zinc tablet each day through the end of the year.

Note Added Saturday, 7/25/20: WHO says over 284K people around the world are infected with COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. Victoria, Australia, on the southern tip of the island continent, is hit hard by covid. Over 300 healthcare workers are sick with the virus in that region. 8% of the infections in the Victoria region are medical personnel. The US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index is at 3216 and started the year at 3231. The stock market is dead flat on the year after the record setting February-March crash and then recovery over the last four months. The US Congress continues negotiating the stimulus bill. A few-day snag is occurring as the republicans squabble internally. Senate Leader McConnell says a bill will be provided on Monday so the House and Senate can then begin the fight over their respective bills next week. The democrat package is $3 trillion while the republicans only want to provide $1 trillion. The middle ground is $2 trillion but it may be $1.5 trillion or so to provide the republicans cover. The politicians can always provide another stimulus bill in the future. For the potential cash payment to Americans, last time it was a $1,800 giveaway and the democrats want that repeated again, however, the republicans only want to offer $1,200 this time around. They may meet in the middle there so many Americans will likely receive a $1,500 check come late August or early September. The majority thinking is that a stimulus bill is needed immediately since the $600 per week supplemental unemployment benefits are running out now. Angering the populace is not a wise strategy with the elections only 101 days away. What a mess. Down the road, Americans will begin to realize there is not enough money to save everything.

Note Added Sunday, 7/26/20: China's coronavirus bioweapon has infected over 16.4 million people around the world and murdered over 651K people. The nations with the most cases are USA, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa and Mexico. Brazil President Bolsanaro has been self-quarantined after he contracted the virus but he continues to treat covid as a mild nuisance and he is lax about using a mask; as people die left and right. in the US, nearly 150K people are dead from covid. California takes the top spot from New York in total cases with Florida in third and Texas fourth. President Trump spends the weekend at his golf resort. Democrat House Speaker Pelosi says the republican president is "fiddlin'" which is a reference to Nero fiddling while Rome was burning. During 9-11, Bush was reading a story book to kids called My Pet Goat and he wanted to finish it. Then during Hurricane Katrina, Bush did a flyover and then was scene strumming a guitar. President Obama had his share of miscues mainly spending time out on the golf course while major problems would be occurring. Trump promised he would never be on the golf course like Obama and he proclaimed that was shameful behavior. Well, Trump enjoys another round of golf as the pandemic kills 150K Americans. Perhaps this is why his poll numbers are slipping. Trump is wanting to run as a law and order candidate since he cannot run on his handling of the pandemic or the economy; both are in shambles. King Donnie sends Federal forces into cities experiencing ongoing riots but this only seems to fan the flames of violence. Trump wants to smash the protests so he can brag about it for the last 100 days of the campaign. The strategy is faulty since the violence and riots will likely worsen into and through the election as the United States morphs into a class war that will extend for a few years. If you are in office bragging about law and order it will not be pretty to see violent riots played on television; it would mean you cannot handle it and you would look like Baghdad Bob. Trump brags that he can crush Biden in the debates, and he probably will, however, like trading, perceptions matter not the actual truth. The Republican Tribe is setting the bar so low for Biden that if Sleepy Joe only manages to hold his own against Trump, and not make a gaff, it will be a big victory for the man from Scranton (Pennsylvania). Biden has an 11-point lead in the polls over Trump so Sleepy Joe continues napping in the basement occasionally rolling over to change the side he lays on so his arm does not fall asleep. Joe asked the aid to have a Boost protein drink ready for him when he wakes in a half hour. Biden pulls a blankie over his thin legs since the room is cold due to the bank of servers running in the closet. Biden will choose his vice president running mate over the coming days. It is the first major decision for a presidential candidate and many have blown it. From a subjective opinion since this author does not care for any politician, Biden likely needs to pick Val Demings. She is smart, attractive and has a police background that would be a selling point to help stop the nationwide riots. Demings has a killer smile and people will like that and she also has some charisma, a key ingredient of a winner; she appears very approachable and a direct-talker, someone you would have fun with at a backyard get-together. If Biden picks her, he will likely open up a larger lead in the polls. If he picks any other candidate for veep, it will be an average reaction except for Rice, which would be a terrible bungle and a huge mistake. Trump is praying every night for Biden to pick Rice. If he picks "Benghazi" Rice, that will be a disaster for democrats; Biden's poll numbers would be expected to drop a few points immediately. Independents will run from Biden and return to Trump. It is bad enough that he is considering Rice; she was dishonest lying on television about the Benghazi raid that killed four Americans a few years ago. On top of that, Hillary Clinton was not honest with the parents of the deceased as their bodies were returned to the US. Clinton vowed that she would bring the person to justice that did the deed but her and Rice already knew everything that happened. This was one of the reasons that Clinton lost the election; Americans did not like the dishonesty shown to families of the four dead Americans. That Rice chick is damaged goods; she should not be in government at all. If he wins, Biden will probably stick Rice into the Secretary of State job, which would be bad if she had any job. Warren will likely head the Treasury. Harris would likely take the Attorney General job. Biden would be smart to jettison Rice from the entire picture especially if he wants the independent votes. Rice soils Biden's bid for the presidency. In the dirty world of politics, maybe Biden was given campaign funds by a fat donor if he provided notoriety for Rice, for whatever reason.

Note Added Monday, 7/27/20: Moderna begins the phase three trial for their vaccine treatment. 15K people will receive the vaccine and 15K will receive a placebo. Fauci says results should be available in the October-November time frame. MRNA catapults +11% higher as the pharmaceutical companies dance with glee at all the billions of government money they get to freely spend. Doctors and scientists are becoming more concerned that many Americans will not take the vaccine if it becomes available. President Trump's National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien takes ill with the virus. Trump keeps stomping his feet up and down telling states to open schools but he does not provide a national plan, or funding, on how to do it safely. Hurricanes are hitting the southern coastal states so people will seek shelter and obviously expose each other to coronavirus. When it rains, it pours. Alphabet (Google) tells employees they can work at home for the next year. The abbreviated baseball season started days ago but is in shambles. Two games are cancelled as players are infected with covid. Senate Majority Leader McConnell releases the republican version of the stimulus bill which is $1 trillion, compared to the democrats package of over $3 trillion. Most view it as stingy but it is the start of negotiations between the House (democrat-controlled) and Senate (republican-controlled). The Senate wants to protect companies from being sued if workers contract the virus. The temporary moratorium on evictions ends now as well as the $600 per week supplemental unemployment offered to laid off workers. About 20 million people remain out of work and many of their jobs are toast. Politicians say unemployed folks are not going back to work since they make more money on unemployment assistance. This garbage talk always pokes its ugly head up during recessions. America's wealthy class rape the financial system for all its worth, millions and billions, sending the economy into a tailspin and then they complain about minimum wage workers being given an extra handful of peanuts. Such is the collapsing crony capitalism system in America. The UK is imposing a quarantine for travelers from Spain. European travel stocks are hit hard. TUI is chop suey crashing -11%.

Note Added Tuesday, 7/28/20: The media keeps touting the headline that the US deaths are over 150K. The controversy around testing continues. Trump brags that the testing in America is the best but he only points to the total number of tests, now at 55 million. On a per capita (per person) basis, there are many other countries with far better programs. In fact, for the pandemic to rage on for six months and the US has tested less than 60 million people is pitiful. No wonder the virus spreads. The US has only tested about 10 million people per month, on average, since the pandemic trouble started out of the 330 million population. The US testing and tracing program is a failure. The president is blowing smoke up everyone's butt. A stink develops since professional sports teams are getting tested daily while regular American citizens are pushed aside. Also, the ongoing PPE shortage is nauseating to watch after many months. Trump keeps saying everyone has what they want but the hospital personnel clearly show that they do not. People do not want to hear misinformation and half-truth's during a pandemic. They are worried about parents and their kids returning to school. They want useful, clear information but every day is layer upon layer of chaos and confusion. A big part of the problem is the lack of a national plan and direction but Trump likely does not want to take control since he will be blamed for things ahead of the election. Trump conducts a virus press conference in the afternoon that does not go well. As usual, like the old press conferences, Trump brags about how great he is and he provides selected numbers to back his case. There are no charts or graphics so the numbers go in one ear and out the other. Trump proclaims, "large spots (of America) are corona-free" and "you will see it (coronavirus) rapidly go down." The dude cannot help himself; he keeps making stuff up. The president takes questions and immediately steps into the hydroxychloroquine quagmire. Trump had tweeted a video showing doctors endorsing the drug but their medical credentials are shaky. Doctors Fauci and Birx say the medical studies have shown that hydroxychloroquine is not an effective treatment in handling coronavirus patients. The drug has become completely political with republicans touting it as the miracle cure for covid while the democrats warn of potential heart attacks and other risks for taking this malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis drug. Several studies, mainly from Europe show that the drug is not helpful. It was given to sick patients and each patient proceeded with the disease as if they took nothing. The drug likely did not help because the sample sizes and make-up of the studies were mostly on old sick virus patients some with one foot in the casket already. On the other side, the drug was studied in healthy adults who took the drug immediately after testing positive. Humorously, the drug shows efficacy, like Trump and Brazil President Bolsanaro tout and endorse, but the focus of these studies was all on young healthy people that are already known to handle the virus well. It is as if both sides stacked the deck in their political favor. The liberal and democrat tribe touts the studies where people on their death bed were not helped by the drug while the conservative and republican tribe touts the studies that tested the drug on young healthy people that would have expected to recover easily anyway. You need your head examined if you cheerlead either of these corrupt dirtbag parties. Be an independent thinker instead. America sure needs independent, subjective leaders now more than ever. The press conference goes off the rails when Trump whines and complains about the popularity of Fauci and Birx, the doctors, but not him. Trump says he should receive the same credit. It is not a good look for Donnie to whine like a baby. Clearly, he is jealous of Fauci, that people perceive as a more reliable resource for information (perhaps misplaced adoration) than the president. Trump is not happy that Fauci threw out the first pitch to start the baseball season; he thought he should be the one to do that. You are embarrassed for Trump that a grown man well into his 70's would show such childhood and adolescent pettiness, but, that's Our Donnie. Trump says Fauci is liked but he is liked more; this statement is disturbing since it sounds like it comes straight from the mouth of Willy Loman in Death of a Salesman who always said his wealthy brother is liked, but he was "well-liked." It's eerie. The coronavirus soap opera gets stranger by the day. Trump becomes frustrated with the questions asked so he walks off stage ending the press briefing like a little boy taking his ball and going home. Trump wanted to right the ship with the press briefings but they are more of a disaster now than before. People want to hear information directly from the doctors not from Trump that heard it from a doctor. The guy seems unable to grasp this idea or more likely he refuses to since he wants to control the message with the election coming fast. Trump refuses to allow doctors to speak at the briefings that are supposed to provide up to the minute information on coronavirus. It's twisted and all this daily confusion and drama takes the president's poll numbers lower.

Note Added Wednesday, 7/29/20: President Trump travels to Texas for a fundraiser as Americans die from coronavirus each day. Republican Texas Representative Gohmert, that touts the president's line about refusing to wear a mask, tests positive for the virus. Gohmert was interacting with many people yesterday and not wearing a mask. Gohmert was supposed to travel with the president to Texas. Trump carries out the event and meets with officials without wearing a mask. King Donnie's mask wearing photo and video op a week ago was simply a ploy. Few people attending the events are wearing masks and instead everyone is partying and commingling. No wonder Americans remain confused and uncertain about what to do during the pandemic. The mixed messages continue. Trump clearly remains against wearing masks. Gohmert claims that the mask he was occasionally using caused him to get the virus. This stuff is hilarious, albeit tragic. Masks likely fall under the category of 'every little bit helps' so it is likely better to wear one if possible but if it impacts breathing and such, those people should not be forced to wear a mask. After the Gohmert illness, Speaker Pelosi makes mask-wearing mandatory on the House floor effective tomorrow. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell conducts a press conference after the FOMC two-day meeting and promises easy money forever. Of course he said that; the Fed is a one-trick pony that only knows how to print money to make stocks run higher to provide vast wealthy to the elite privileged class that owns large equity portfolios. This is America's crony capitalism system that is in its last throes. The S&P 500 jumps 40 points higher to 3258. 

Note Added Thursday, 7/30/20: 17.2 million people are infected with covid around the world with 671K deaths. The USA is approaching 4.6 million cases (27% of the worlds cases) and 154K deaths. For the world, almost 4%, or 4 in every 100 people, die that contract the virus. In America, it is a little less at 3.4%, or 1 in every 30 people that contract the virus will die. Comparing the US deaths to the total 330,000,000 population results in a 0.000005% chance of dying from the coronavirus in the United States. In other words, the average American has a one in 2,143 chance of dying from the virus, however, if you do get sick with the virus, there is a 1 in 30 chance that you will die. Global investors are focused on the US GDP and Jobless Claims numbers released this morning. The Q2 (April, May, June) GDP is down -32.9% (annualized percentage) the largest drop in history. Nothing else is even close. Jobless Claims are 1.434 million worse than expected. Trump plays Twitter games wondering if the election will have to be delayed. Trump knows people will get all riled-up about this comment; it boggles the mind why he says such stupid things. The comment is so stupid the republican leadership (McConnel, Cruz, Rubio, and others) immediately jumps in and unequivocally states that the election date is cast in stone and will not change. Trump has no power to change the date anyway; Congress would do that. Donnie, do you understand why your poll numbers are slipping? That is stupid stuff. The major tech stocks such as GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN and FB, report earnings this evening and all stocks rally higher after the results. People are spending more time at home so these stocks are the beneficiaries. Republican presidential candidate from years ago, Herman Cain, that also saved a pizza chain, passed  away from the coronavirus. Cain was partying with Trump at the Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally laughing at the dolts using masks. Two weeks later he was sick. Then in the hospital. Then downhill from there; now dead. President Trump conducts another press conference and Americans wonder what theatrics and drama will be in store on tonight's reality television show. Trump stands at the podium and reads from notes. He drones on; everyone is likely waiting for the Q&A because that is when he will become animated and maybe do something wild for the news reels. Here we go. The briefing is Trump denigrating democrats and portraying republicans with halos on their heads. He is back to the campaign speech stuff. The briefings are a joke. He continues reading from notes which does not make for a compelling presentation. Trump rambles on about opening schools and he says if it does not happen there will be "death, death." He outlines some of the ongoing problems but does not provide any solutions and simply dumps all the responsibility for solving the items onto the states and others. He says that America will rise better than before but the words are hollow when he is reading it from a sheet of paper and it sounds like it is the first time he read his own speech notes. He begins taking questions and makes claims that the election will be rigged and ruined by mail-in voting. Trump says hundreds of millions of mail-in ballots are sent out. This sounds like a made-up statement since there are only 330 million people int the US and only about one-half to two-thirds vote so for 150 million voters Trump says 600 or 700 million forms are sent out? This is a lie. Comically, the orange head, minutes later, now repeats the same statement saying tens of millions of ballots are sent out. Trump is simply mixed up in the head talking about a potential rigged election due to mail-in voting and about the ongoing civil unrest in Portland and other cities.

Note Added Friday, 7/31/20: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) updates its study from two weeks ago adding another 11K deaths to its forecasts predicting 230,000 coronavirus deaths in the United States by November 1. A quarter-of-a-million dead Americans gets your attention. The study says many Americans are not following mask and social distancing guidelines which continues the covid spread. A recent poll finds that 3 of 4 Americans have a low opinion of China which is a substantive increase over the last few months. China must pay for its sick bioterrorism agenda, unleashing the Wuhan virus bioweapon on the world. The human destruction is historic. America has descended into a dirtbag game of politics as the pandemic spreads. The democrats (House) passed a $3 trillion stimulus bill a couple months ago but the republicans (Senate) waited until Monday to unveil their $1 trillion plan. Both sides must now negotiate a compromise. The extra $600 per week supplemental unemployment insurance runs out for 17 million and more people today. In addition, the moratorium on evictions ends. The two sides appear far apart on the stimulus bill. McConnell reveals the republican gamesmanship strategy by saying instead of dealing with the large stimulus bill, focus on a small bill to handle the supplemental unemployment insurance. The republicans know the democrats will not be in favor of this path forward, which they are not, so McConnell complains that the democrats are holding up relief for the American people. Trump decrees that the democrats are "obstructionists." These political baby games are getting old with the American people; that is why the social unrest, protests and riots will continue and increase in the weeks and months ahead. Clearly, both dirtbag parties, the republicans and democrats pledge allegiance to their tribes above and before the United States and what is good for the common people. This is how crony capitalism ends.