Thursday, April 30, 2020

SPX S&P 500 and CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Charts; Complacency Signaling Near-Term Top is At Hand; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Cyclical Bear Market




The charts above look like last evening's spaghetti. Markets remain erratic and unstable moving on coronavirus (COVID-19) news. Yesterday, promising treatments are announced including more success with GILD's Remdesivir. President Trump is trying to fast track the vaccine process. Some things may be difficult to rush, like staged drug trials, especially for a disease that is a bit complicated like covid and mutating 30 different times. One of the reasons New York was smacked hard was likely that the virus strain from Europe packed a bigger punch than the virus strain hitting the West Coast.

So stocks leap higher yesterday the S&P 500 catapulting 2.7% to early March highs. Everybody is all smiles and back-slapping each other. The Fed meeting was yesterday afternoon conducted remotely with Chairman Powell and the journalists obeying the stay-at-home government orders. Stocks are bullish 80% of the time the day or two in front of and going into the Fed meetings so yesterday was no surprise. Easy money rules the corrupt crony capitalism world, baby, grab yours before there isn't any left.

The wine was flowing like water on Wall Street yesterday. Traders were throwing darts at stock pages to make picks since all tickers are headed higher on central banker largess. There is no need to ever worry about stocks collapsing again since the Fed proved they can always save the day (can they?). The CPCE put/call chart shows the complacency and fearlessness in the stock market matching the levels back on 2/20/20 (red circles).

The put/call chart is a contrarian indicator. When folks are fat, dumb and happy, complacent, fearless, buying stocks with reckless abandon, that is exactly when the top is going to occur. The stock market has a way of wiping the smile off their bullish faces. Conversely, you want to buy when there is blood and carnage in the streets, the baby is thrown out with the bathwater, all hope is lost, alas, the end is nigh, goodbye cruel world, traders jump from windows; fortunately they are on the ground floor. When all this hopelessness and despair occurs, like the third week of March, the bottom is in.

The 21-day MA is useful for the put/calls. The CPCE crosses up through the 21 signaling time to sell the stock market, which was correct, and then price drops back through the 21 on 3/20/20 a day or so in front of the bottom in the stock market, which provided a nice heads-up for the bottom. Note how the CPCE comes up again a couple times but hits its head on the 21 and stumbles lower staying in the complacency region. People like to par-tay so pour the wine Harry and Agnes; it's time to buy stocks without a care in the world. The CPCE falls to 0.53. Wheeee. Whoopie.

The SPX chart shows the 2/20/20 high called out by the CPCE complacency and down she (SPX) went. During the March bottom, the green falling wedge, positive divergence with the chart indicators and the oversold RSI and stochastics create the bounce. However, the MACD was still weak and bleak in March when price printed the low so the MACD did not positively diverge; instead, it wants price to come back down to those lows again at some point forward. The price action in the chart is overridden by the positive virus drug news and the ongoing central banker joy.

So price rallies for the last 5 or 6 weeks off the March bottom into a rising wedge pattern which is bearish. The histogram, stochatics and money flow are each neggie d and the stochastics are overbot; all bearish indications. However, the RSI has punched out a higher high after yesterday's festival and the MACD also remains long and strong. Thus, the neggie d will conspire to spank price down for a day or so but it will want to come back up for another high in price since the RSI and MACD are still providing upside fuel. It will probably take either 2 or 4 days for price to jog down-up or down-up-down-up to print matching or higher price highs and provide time for the RSI and MACD to negatively diverge and seal the near-term top.

Price has violated the upper band and not yet returned to at least the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA at 2754 so that is on the table. The SPX took out the 50-day MA at 2779 this week and never looked back. That is a huge confluence of resistance above formed by the upper band and 100, 150 and 200-day MA's, as well as a gap fill, at 3006-3025; a gauntlet of resistance. Bears must hold the line at 3006-3025 and they will win the war in the weeks ahead. Bulls will ride to victory to new record highs this year if price starts running above 3025.

The ADX purple box verifies a very strong trend for the downside collapse in February and March. Of course this petered out as April began and price began running higher on word that Powell is in the basement of the Eccles Building running the money-printing presses 24/7. The ADX is stagnant at 19. This is surprising. For such a joyous and euphoric rally and everyone proclaiming that the coast is clear and it is time to par-tay, the ADX tells you that the rally is NOT a strong trend higher.

The Aroon green line is pegged into the ceiling at one hundo and the red line is smashed into the dirt at zero; both are maximum bullishness, there is no more bullish it can get, so there is only bearishness ahead. Look for a potential Aroon negative cross like February.

The pink 150-day MA at 3025 is sloping downward since early March signaling that the US stock market is in a cyclical bear market. Bulls need to move the 150-day higher so this key moving average line begins sloping upwards again to prove that the stock market is back into a cyclical bull pattern; it's not there yet.

The Q1 2020 GDP yesterday is down -4.8%; call it -5%. The brunt of the downside in economic activity, when everything was locked down, was the last 2 weeks of March. Calling the downturn March and assuming January and February are +3% annual growth each, and using a -5% GDP, solving for March yields a drop in that month of -21% in economic activity. This, then, would be expected for April and May. That's bigtime; Great Depression stuff. GDP numbers are notoriously revised many times, however, so the numbers will probably jump around all year long. Two consecutive negative quarters is one official definition of a recession, thus, in 90 days when we receive the Q2 2020 GDP (for April, May, June), if is a negative number, which it likely will be, the United States will be officially in recession.

What does all that mumbo-jumbo above mean? A near-term top in stocks will occur any day forward probably between Friday and Wednesday. The full moon peaks next Thursday (plant your garden seeds now during the waxing moon for plants that grow above ground) and stocks are usually buoyant through the full moon. The US Monthly Jobs Report is on Friday and everyone knows the news will be bad so it is somewhat expected. Otherwise, the week is light on data so earnings will play a role and of course the coronavirus pandemic.

The easy thing to do is not guess and simply wait for the RSI and MACD to go neggie d since that will tell you the top; it should be any day ahead. A jog of at least one down-back up is needed in price to see if the RSI and MACD will cooperate and throw in the towel. The trading volumes were strong during the selloff and price will need to come back down at some point forward and test those March lows to honor that high volume. If long and you enjoyed the rally, time to scale-out over next few days. If you want to go short, perhaps wait for the down-up jog in price and then open up a short position and begin scaling in perhaps on Friday or Monday. Of course, any coronavirus or central banker news, positive or negative, will impact stocks and the charts will adjust. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, April 26, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator Remains Mired in Great Depression-type Deflation


by K E Stone

The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator crashes down to 1.04 signaling that the United States remains mired in a Great Depression-style deflation. We live in special times. The ongoing deflationary quagmire started in America in late 2014. In 2014, the US economy oscillated between a neutral posture, disinflation and deflaton and as can easily be seen in the chart, deflation wins.


The Federal Reserve and other global central bankers saved the day in early 2016 printing money like madmen; just like in March 2009 when former Fed Chairman Bernanke stepped in with QE 1 to save the stock market and protect America's elite class. The Fed's grand 11-year Keynesian experiment is a failure. The money-printing cannot create inflation but did result in making the wealthy class filthy rich. Such is the crony capitalism system.

After the QE pumps to handle the Great Recession in 2009, the economy barely tagged inflation in springtime 2011. The Chicago traders will remember those days. Everyone (except Keystone; there's always one of him in the crowd) was convinced that inflation was here to stay and the Fed had orchestrated a recovery. Unfortunately, the charts were in negative divergence back then and as expected, things quickly fell apart. The Fed got less bang for the buck after that 2016 pump. The chart line is bent over like a limp sausage. And now, over the last couple months in 2020, the Federal Reserve steps in with even more Keynesian money-printing schemes so obscene they would make Caligula blush. It is sickening. The Fed is offering up orders of magnitude more money than the Great Recession 11 years ago and it is not working yet folks. Good luck to all.

The power of the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers (ECB, BOJ, BOE, PBOC, etc...) and their Keynesian money-printing is astounding. The central banker printing presses created an 11-year stock market rally (March 2009 to February 2020), the longest rally in stock market history, rewarding the wealthy that own large stock portfolios. Common folks, however, have not benefited from the central banker largess. The middle class, now a lower middle class, and the disadvantaged and poor, are suffering through high unemployment and high debt and not benefiting from trickle-down economics. The only thing trickling down is the wealthy elite class's piss onto the huddled masses' heads. One-half of Americans do not own one single share of stock; think about that in the context of the last 11 years.

There is an ongoing battle between goods inflation/deflation and services inflation/deflation. Generally, the goods and services should track in relatively the same direction but something special has been occurring the last few years. The central bankers have destroyed all price discovery in markets due to their Keynesian intervention. Global markets are twisted into knots; no one truly knows the correct price for anything anymore.


The chart above is weighted for the goods-oriented inflation/deflation since the CRB commodities index is used in the numerator of the Keystone ratio. The internet, technology and computers are huge deflationary machines eliminating jobs and continuing to lower prices. Electronics and products such as smartphones are turning into commodities and are cheaper each passing year. Corn and wheat crops are at bumper yields. The world is awash in oil. The planet is hit with a double-whammy, an over-supply problem, glut, and a demand-shock at the same time with the coronavirus (COVID-19). When it rains, it pours.


On the services side, however, prices are flat after maintaining buoyancy the last few years. Before the coronavirus tragedy, services prices were showing signs of rolling over. Those of you paying college tuition bills see prices rise each year. Heath insurance (ACA; Obamacare) and medical costs are out of control. Prescription drugs are expensive; many Americans over 50 years old take a palm-full of pills each day. Utility bills consistently sneak higher. Haircuts cost more each year. Home prices continue rising creating the inflationary vibe. Keystone predicted that these services prices that create that slight inflationary vibe are likely going to moderate and move towards the goods deflation camp. Boom. The virus hits and markets fall apart. Deflation rules the roost.


Another reason that market participants were concerned about inflation the last few years is that the well-paid talking heads on television tout the higher services costs all the time. The reason the pundits tout inflation is because they are the ones living in the expensive homes, taking the prescriptions drugs daily, paying the high costs of insurances and saving money to pay high tuition costs for their children. Most market participants are making money and doing well in their careers so they are predisposed to believe inflation is occurring because of the costs they see in their higher-class daily lives. However, they must realize they are fortunate enjoying a higher standard of living than most other common folks across the United States.


The lower middle class, disadvantaged and poor folks instead see disinflation and deflation. Many do not have the same monthly expenses as the upper middle class and wealthier folks. Generalizing, common folks of modest means live in run-down houses or apartments, many do not have health or other insurances and they have no hope in seeing their children go to college. They do not see the services inflation that the upper middle class and wealthy tout.


The services components in inflation create the vibe that inflation exists in the economy when in reality it does not. As the chart shows, deflation is the order of the day since late 2014.


The world is in recession now due to the coronavirus tragedy. The services inflation will roll over to the downside and join the goods deflation sitting in the basement. Businesses will be begging for customers. Millions of people have lost their jobs, so many that the government cannot keep up with the claims and many have yet to receive an unemployment check. The wealthy pigs feeding at the trough for 11 years, raping America for all its worth, never spent one second thinking about the end game for this ravaged beaten-down nation coming to terms with crony capitalism. Why would they since they destroyed the middle class over the last five decades and did not lose one night of sleep over it? The middle class was the fabric that held American society and the economy together but alas, that red, white and blue material is in scattered tatters laying in a muddy pothole next to a shut-down factory while the bankers, corporate executives, politicians and wealthy moguls stand around each holding a pair of scissors.

As the recession likely deepens, people lose jobs, they do not spend money, prices drop. Customers begin delaying services that they routinely used before the recession. Once you lose your job, your whole life will change. Subscription services will be cancelled as people lose jobs in the coming recession.

In the future, say after a year or two of this deflationary quagmire, the velocity of money will likely kick in and the money sitting idle at banks will be put to work. A multiplier effect will accelerate business activity and inflation will leap higher and then the country will likely shoot up into the hyperinflation range say in the 2022-2026 time frame. That will be a different problem and a future troubled bridge to cross. The Dow will be going towards 40K and 50K but the dollar will be toilet paper with gasoline at $10 per gallon and a loaf of bread for $10. These problems can be discussed down the road and folks better hope for this outcome because the other outcome is sustainable multi-decade deflation a la Japan. For now, deflation remains in charge.

Keystone's Inflation-Deflation Indicator remains in DEFLATION at 1.04 a record low print and far below the 2.05 during the 2008-2009 Great Recession financial crisis. The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator remains mired in the deflation region and the low number is actually extremely problematic and worrisome. We are talking Great Depression stuff. "Hey, buddy, can you spare a dime."

The 10-year Treasury note price is used for the denominator (bottom number) of The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator. The 10-year Treasury price is 108.55 with a yield at 0.60%. Dear Lord. The 10-year yield was at 2.72% in December 2018 only 16 months ago. Commodities are in the numerator (top number). The CRB Commodity Index has crashed down to 112.75. Calculating Keystone's ratio;

The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator

CRB/10-Year Price = 112.75/108.55 = 1.04

Over 4.40 = Hyperinflation
Between 3.60 and 4.40 = Inflation
Between 3.00 and 3.60 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists Battle
Between 2.9 and 3.00 = Disinflation
Under 2.90 = Deflation

The economy and markets instead remain mired deep in deflation for over five years. As the above discussion highlights, commodities and goods are in serious deflation while the services components are now likely rolling over into deflation. As the recession hits, housing prices will fall. Services (fees and costs charged to the consumer) will likely trend lower with deflationary behavior to attract a decreasing number of interested users and buyers.

The main reason for the lack of inflation and ongoing persistent deflation is the lack of wage growth. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation (watch the Friday Monthly Jobs Report to see if any wage inflation occurs) and wage inflation never did get off the ground, and now it is harpooned by the virus. Wage inflation was growing annually at about +3% a paltry amount, you can forget that small amount going forward. When is the last time you had a substantive raise?


The Federal Reserve needs to see the annual wage growth at +4.0% to +4.5% to be comfortable knowing that inflation has taken hold and will be sustainable going forward but this is a dirty little secret they will not discuss in public. Chairman Powell performed cartwheels of joy in the hallway of the Eccles Building when wages cracked the +3% annual level but in his heart of hearts he knew wages must inflate far higher to sustain ongoing overall inflation, and now it is not going to happen. If the 3%-handle reverts back to a 2%-handle, Powell will be crying in his cafe latte.


The United States remains in a deflationary funk since August 2014. Think back to the summer of 2008 if you want to relive the feeling of rising inflation. Rising prices were a common daily complaint at office water coolers, supermarkets and dentist offices back in 2008; not now. When inflation occurs, you will feel it and you will hear about it from family, friends and coworkers. You will be complaining about the huge cost increases for everything. This vibe is not occurring. There is no inflation currently; only deflation. Inflation is Godot for the last six years.

All that oil sloshing around in storage tanks filled to capacity is oversupply and deflationary.  Commodities have crashed except for silver and gold. Gasoline is $1.93 per gallon on average in the United States down 80 cents per gallon from October 2019 to April 2020. A large increase in commodity buying and shipping is needed to prove that inflation is on the rise and that never materialized. Remember the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) chart Keystone would post time to time. The globe was in recession before the virus. The US economy was also far weaker than anyone realized. Do not believe the line the Fed is touting that the economy was in great shape. Retail Sales have been soft since late last year and they held the economy up.

The retail bankruptcies and store closures will increase. The US is grossly overstored by a factor of 3 to 1 compared to other Western nations. The retail carnage is disinflationary since racks of clothes and other products will be sold pennies on the dollar to liquidate inventories. A recession would exacerbate this activity. Stores are closing; inventories are being liquidated.

There is no demand in this sick stagnant economy that is only pumped-up by fits and starts of central banker monetary policy and/or government fiscal stimulus. Deflation is identified by consumer behavior that wants to wait for the future to buy something since they believe the item will be cheaper. Of course companies cannot maintain staff waiting for your cheap butt to buy something, so they have to lay off more workers which further exacerbates the recession and deflationary scenario. Prices drop lower and customers are only encouraged to keep waiting before buying anything since they now expect prices to drop even lower. This, folks, is a tragic deflationary spiral. It be very, very bad. Great Depression bad.

recession was long overdue. recession will usher in deflationary behavior. Treasury yields fall as investors seek safety in notes and bonds (price up yields down). Keystone’s indicator drops as the price in the denominator moves higher. Likewise, demand for commodities decreases in a recession so the CRB index drops and a lower numerator in the indicator will send the ratio number lower as well; a 113-handle on the CRB is an extremely low and deflationary number.

The structural unemployment problem remains in the U.S. and the current stagnant wage growth (wage deflation) reinforces an ongoing deflationary and disinflationary theme. Technology, computers and the Internet are huge deflationary machines. Robots continue to replace human's on the job. 
The pattern of 'more tech--less human's' will continue. Fast-food restaurants, such as Mickey D's, use kiosks that eliminate more jobs. Automation and technology is deflation.

The structural unemployment problem will continue in the US for years and perhaps decades forward. The unemployed and underemployed create a burden on the economy over time. The wealthy on Wall Street, in bed with the Fed, make themselves filthy rich by taking advantage of the 2008-2009 crash (easy money pumps the stock market higher) while the middle class and poor (that do not own stocks) are thrown under the bus over the last decade. The Fed members perform the bidding of the investment banks since they are rewarded with lucrative speaking gigs after they leave public office; a quid pro quo for their loyalty in maintaining easy-money conditions that send stock prices higher and benefit the elite class.


It is disgusting watching the privileged wealthy class take advantage of the rigged crony capitalism system raping America for all its worth starting with sending middle class jobs overseas in the 1970's and 1980's. The greedy politicians and corporate executives kept eliminating middle class jobs in favor of slave labor overseas. The lower expenses drive up stock prices making all of them filthy rich over the last few decades. A lot of that family and generational wealth you see is blood money. The wealthy class, about 20 million strong, spit on the other 310 million Americans over the last five decades. The best part is that the elite class makes millions off the rigged system they control then they turn around and complain to America that they pay too much in taxes. You have to love the pseudo free market crony capitalism system. Capitalism does not exist; it is only a theoretical concept in business textbooks. Crony capitalism fails because of two simple reasons; human greed and no transparency. It's not rocket science. All ism's fail over time for the same reasons.

Companies are meeting EPS (earnings-per-share) by laying off workers and squeezing more production out of existing workers (as evidenced by flat to lower top line revenues for companies across all sectors for the last couple years). Instead of creating jobs and buying equipment with the central banker easy money, companies use the dough for stock repurchase programs (buybacks) that artificially pump stock prices higher. Yes, they are greedy b*stards only concerned about increasing their own wealth.

Watch Keystone's formula above; you can crunch the numbers to check the indicator every few weeks. It was shocking to see equity markets print new record highs against a disinflationary and deflationary back drop but now markets are starting to make more sense. The current market behavior is unprecedented; perhaps a 1930's Great Depression redux.


The amazing power of the central banker money-printing is God-like. The central bankers are the market. They are modern day money Gods in charge of the Temple. Kneel before their Power and Majesty. The Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC, the whole Hee-Haw gang, will keep printing money like madmen it is the only thing they know how to do. They are sick, one-trick ponies. They will print money until the whole system collapses and as the chart shows, the Fed keeps printing orders of magnitude more money to bailout the markets but receives less and less bang for the buck. When confidence and belief in the Fed is lost, all will be lost.

The Brexit stock market crash in late June 2016 was stopped by the BOE promising easy money. The PBOC keeps pumping China’s economy and markets. The Fed has remained accommodative with low rates, and now back to ZIRP, over the last 11 years. The BOJ keeps implementing stimulus programs. The ECB keeps flapping its dovish wings. It is all so nauseating. Do these humans look themselves in the mirror and ask, "What have I done? What has become of me?"

The central bankers create the all-time record highs in the global stock markets. The world is awash in central banker liquidity and all that money sloshing around has to go somewhere so it pumps-up all asset classes, hence the latest stock market rally in late March into the early April 2020 top.


The wealthy were dancing with glee as stock, bond, art, vineyard, real estate, collectibles and classic car prices leaped higher on central banker easy money. The wealthy light expensive cigars and dab the ashes onto the faces of the once-middle-class. America is in a new Gilded Age a la the 1920's. The divide between rich and poor is the widest in 50 years. nasty, and likely violent, class war is likely on tap for America in the months and year or two ahead likely triggered by the recession. As Betty said, "Fasten your seat belts, its going to be a bumpy ride."

Stagnant wages in America will prevent inflation from occurring. When wages rise, that will tell you inflation is coming fast and Treasury yields will then rise strongly. As long as wages remain flat or lower, inflation will not exist. Focus on the wage data in the monthly jobs reports.

Think back to the last period of rampant sustainable inflation in 2006-2008; you were likely enjoying happy raises at work each year, right? And probably not so much from 2009 to present? Correct? In fact, for many of you, it feels like you are working for the same amount of money for the last 11 years.

All this windbag mumbo-jumbo aside, what does the above say in a nutshell? The current answer to the ongoing inflation-deflation debate is DEFLATION as much as everyone tries to ignore it and say that inflation is around the corner. After a decade of obscene Fed and other central banker money-printing, the United States economy remains mired in deflation proving that Bernanke's grand Keynesian experiment, blessed and implemented by Fed Chair Greenspan, and then pursued by former Fed Chair Yellen, and now further implemented by Chairman Powell, as well as dovish Fed members such as Evans, is tragically failing. It did succeed, however, in making America's wealthy class filthy rich.

The deflationary quagmire may be sticky for a while. All of you inflation enthusiasts do not fear, however, inflation will arrive soon perhaps in the 2021-2022 time frame and then hyperinflation in 2022 and beyond. That will be a whole new set of problems, that is if we survive this ongoing bout with deflationPray that it does not develop into a deflationary spiral a la the Great Depression.If we manage to avoid the deflationary spiral, in a couple years rampant inflation will develop as the velocity of money ramps higher. This will then lead to out-of-control inflation, hyperinflation, in the 2020's decade. There is nothing but minefields ahead of us.

In a nutshell, the United States remains mired in DEFLATION as it has been for nearly 6 years.

DBA Invesco DB Ag Fund Weekly Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing; Megaphone; Lower Band Violation


The DBA ETF is smacked hard this year. Commodities have taken a beating. DBA is stabbed in the liver and bleeding in the dirty alleyway behind the CBOT. Poor DBA is left for dead.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has destroyed many commodities due to the destruction of the supply chains. The grains cannot be shipped anywhere if everyone is sitting home and nothing is moving. Dairy farmers in Wisconsin are dumping gallons of milk. A couple potato producers in Idaho are giving away potatoes for free since they will only go to waste. In Iowa, 2 million chickens are culled after workers become infected with covid. Other meat and poultry plants are not operating at full capacity since it is hard to lure employees, that are afraid of getting infected, back to work. The global agricultural trade has been knee-capped.

President Trump disrupted agricultural trade around the world with the ongoing trade war with China. Farmers, many that voted for Trump, were slapped around like a beach ball for a couple years. There is a farm bankruptcy in all states in the US over the last year. It is interesting to see that some of those farmers voting for Donnie, hoping for a better future, only ended up selecting their demise. So the trade deal with the communists is finalized, the phase one thing where Trump does not say how many phases there are, you know, all the same old stupid game-playing stuff, and US farmers begin breathing easier. Farmers take a couple extra swigs of apple cider on New Years and look forward to a stupendous 2020.

Then the coronavirus hits. Supply chains are gone overnight. Suddenly, the decent prices for ag goods, which showed promise to continue this year, were tossed out the window like a cigarette butt. Prices plummet into deflation.

All that doom and gloom aside, Keystone always looks for opportunities. The general market is a mess right now. The markets are in a whipsaw pattern changing direction each day or so chewing up bulls and bears alike. It is best to spend a lot of time watching in these markets. Picture your portfolio as a bar of soap; the more you handle it, the smaller it gets.

DBA is in a strong downtrend, no denying that. Price is slipping down into that small falling wedge, which is bullish. Ditto the RSI, histo, stochastics and money flow all displaying positive divergence. RSI and stoch's are oversold also agreeable to a bounce occurring. Price is below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher.

DBA has violated the lower standard deviation band since March so the middle band at 15.25, and dropping is on the table, also the upper band at 17.54 but remember this is a longer-term weekly chart so it may take many many weeks and months to get there.

The price expansion pattern, or megaphone pattern, is shown. Keystone added a mouthpiece and handle so you can visualize the megaphone easier. DBA has respected the megaphone since mid 2018 almost 2 years. The next move would be for price to bounce and migrate towards the top rail of the megaphone again.

The DBA daily chart is possie d across its indicators. Ditto the 2-hour chart which would be agreeable to buoyancy going forward. However, there is always a fly in the soup. Keystone called a waiter over to the table a few months ago asking, "What is this fly doing in my soup?" The waiter took a look, paused, and said, "The backstroke." The MACD line remains weak and bleak in the weekly time frame.

Keystone is buying DBA and opened a long position. On the weekly basis, she's going to bounce now and probably for a week or two due to all the possie d. However, after this several-day and week or two of upside recovery joy, DBA will roll back over lower and seek a matching or lower price about three weeks out. When price comes back down after the initial week or two pop, the MACD will likely positively diverge and identify the firm solid bottom no the weekly chart. This will place a significant bottom in DBA and price will rally for several weeks to the upside.

Thus, choose your poison. If a risk-taker, you can buy DBA now and look for that one or two week rally that should begin right away. The key is not to be too greedy, you just want the cream off the top so after it pops, take the money. DBA is not worth shorting now so then you can hang tight until it likely comes back down again, on the weekly basis, due to the weak and bleak MACD. Once the MACD goes possie d, sometime in May, you can monitor the chart and know what to look for, the multi-week rally will begin for DBA.

Despite the doom and gloom around commodities and the realization that the coronavirus saga will continue to hurt the sector for a while, the DBA chart is setting up nicely. Thus, one must think about the fundamentals before speculating. Keystone will be buying more DBA this week looking for the near-term pop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CRB Commodities Index Monthly Chart; Deflation


The CRB Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index crashes this year. It's light's out for commodities. Do you know what you call the chart above? Deflation. That is what you call it, deflation.

Over the last few years, the United States has been in a disinflationary and deflationary world. Yinz remember everyone touting inflation a few years back but that was not occurring--disinflation and deflation was occurring. These folks now say inflation is nowhere in sight and will not appear for a couple years forward. When folks that were wrong for many years finally throw in the towel saying that inflation will not occur, that is when the radar goes up and the long three-decade bond rally is likely in its final stage of bottoming (notes and bonds are well bid for 30+ years sending yields lower). As the years progress, inflation will arrive at some point and yields will be climbing as investors shun Treasuries sending prices lower. But this is not now. Disinflation and deflation is the bed we sleep in each night currently.

There is an ongoing battle between goods inflation and services inflation. The CRB above shows you the status of the US economy plain as day; deflation. However, most of the folks that sit in front of the television cameras, as well as financial managers and business and economic commentators, and the well-to-do viewers, are all making a good buck and see the world differently.

The folks that are upper middle class (the middle class was destroyed over the last five decades with most ending up as lower middle class now but a portion is upper middle class since they feed off the elite class's teat) own the new cars, don the fancy clothes, buy the latest gadgets, live in the McMansions and send their children to the finest schools and colleges. Therefore, when these folks comment on the disinflationary and deflationary posture of the United States, they roll their eyes and say how can that be? It does not compute in their world.

The upper middle class is experiencing higher prices via the utility bills for their McMansion that seem to increase annually, the mortgages, the school and college tuition and other costs for funding their children's educations, higher medical and insurance costs, and so forth. This creates that rift between inflationists and deflationists both arguing their cases but both left wondering who is right. As you see with the CRB above, the goods side is clearly in deflation; 100% no question. Also, yinz watch the electronic gadgets and other goods becoming cheaper each year. Smartphones are an electronic commodity nowadays. Computers are deflationary machines. The goods deflation reflects raw material prices which are lower and great for companies producing end products but lower for two troubling reasons; oversupply and lack of demand. That's not good.

The services side is important, but as Keystone has mentioned over the last couple years, the services inflation will likely come back to the goods deflation side rather than the goods deflation growing into goods inflation and joining the services inflation camp, and that is obviously happening now. Goods inflation falls into Hades and services will follow. People are laid off now so they are not seeking hair-cutting, grooming, travel and other services. Dentists are not allowed to open except for emergencies. Ditto the eyeglass and contact stores. At the same time, on the goods side, auto dealers are cutting automobile prices. Keystone receives offers and incentives daily to buy new vehicles but he is cheap and instead likes driving around in his brush-painted 1967 Rambler putty-mobile with the fenders that wave to you as he drives down the road. Joking aside, Americans better hope we do not fall into a deflationary spiral. Japan is in that quagmire for three decades and cannot get out.

If prices continue falling like stones, folks that planned to make a purchase of a key item will actually tend to keep waiting. This is human behavior. Even though they may have saved up for that car, or refrigerator, or house, or princess bedroom set for little Emma, once it is time to buy, and the item may even be offered at a discount, the customer balks. Humans ask themselves why should I buy it now if prices keep falling? You know, if I wait a week, I bet prices will be even cheaper. Yes, let's wait a week. Do you think you would exhibit this behavior. Of course you would. You are wired as a human. This creates a deflationary death spiral. Since people hold off on buying stuff waiting for even better prices and bargains, employees are canned. Companies must ax workers if they are not making the same number of widgets. Thus, these folks join the ranks of the unemployed and they cannot afford to buy anything. It is ugliness and especially not pretty since America is quickly aging demographically, like Japan. US small farmers will continue going bankrupt.

The blue sideways symmetrical triangle pattern played out. The vertical side is about 155 to 225 so that is a 70 difference. The failure from the lower rail of the triangle occurs at 175 so the target is 105. Price hits one hundo as a low so far this month.

The orange two-leg bear flag pattern also played out. The first leg from 310 to 160 is 150 points. The sideways consolidation flag forms during 2016-2019 and then the second down leg begins. Keystone likes to use that highest number in the consolidation zone even though it may not be at the end of the flag. Thus, from two hundo, take away 150, is a 50 target.

The moving average ribbon rolled over with the CRB below the 20-month MA below the 50-mth MA below the 100-mth, below the 150 below the 200 so a mean reversion higher will be in the cards very soon. CRB was rode hard and put away wet. The hallmark characteristic of the 1930's Great Depression was deflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Saturday, April 25, 2020

WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) Oil and USO ETF Daily Charts; Oil Crashes on Black Monday/Tuesday 4/20-21/20; Oil Prices Print Negative for First Time in History; Oil Supply Glut and Demand-Shock



April 20th and 21st, 2020, will always be known as Black Monday/Tuesday in the oil patch. West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) oil prices crashed -40% and went negative for the first time in history. Oil finishes the week with a -32% crash. Oil was at 150 in 2008 and at 110-120 during 2011-2014. The world was already well-supplied by the top three producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, when the coronavirus hit. Global oil demand went straight off a cliff. People are sitting at home and not driving and factories sit idle. The big CAT bulldozers and high-lifts sit idle at construction sites.

As if the double-whammy of oversupply and a demand-shock is not enough, the Arabs and Russkies decide to battle one another in a price war. As oil price dropped, Saudi Arabia and Russia sharpened their barbs towards one another which softened price further. The two rivals then realized they could crush the US oil shale industry, perhaps splitting up that pie for themselves. This is tricky business since the Saudi's need the US military to protect their robed-butt's in the dangerous Middle East.

Another factor in the oil crash is the May futures contract expiring 4/21/20. The heaviest trading volume was on Monday. The crash was a cascading event from Sunday evening when futures opened into Tuesday with the lows in the futures on Monday; stock market derivative plays bottomed on Tuesday. Trading volumes are lower in recent trading days exposing the market to volatile moves. For expiration, traders must take delivery or roll the contract over (which is typical). If delivery is taken, that will be at the Cushing, Oklahoma, USA, terminal and tank storage farm. Cushing tanks are filled to the brim. Well, actually, at the current rate, they will be 100% maxed-out in a week or two. You can imagine the price you must pay to store a barrel of oil there now; rumor has it that it costs an arm and a leg.

Cushing is the largest oil tank farm in the world. So the world is standing knee-deep in oil with nowhere to put it. The refineries are reducing capacity since the gasoline storage tanks are filling up fast. Contracts will be pushed down the road and oil will likely remain in the 20's or lower for the next three months.

So mix all this stuff together into a perfect storm, add a volatile stock market, and voila, history is written over the last week. Oil prices fell through the 20-day MA at 21, the last line of support, so the rout was on. This continued the slide from late last week. Then, Black Monday/Tuesday occurs printing three black crow candlesticks during the fateful period. Note how price back kisses the 20-day and then it was lights-out. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

The crash is epic with oil prices amazingly going negative down to -$40. Jaws drop. Some machines had trouble handling negative prices. It was strange watching contracts trade where the screen was green for a rising oil price but the price was still negative. The options trade negatively. No trader ever thought oil would exhibit this price behavior in their lifetimes. Oil recovers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday now sitting at 17. It is shocking stuff that is still hard to get your head around.

Tankers, laden with oil, are sitting in the oceans out away from the docks. There is nowhere to put the stuff. There's no room at the inn. Thus, a supply-glut, demand-shock, price war, contract expiry and coronavirus negativity conspire to drag oil prices negative. Unbelievable.

As a regular Joe Blow and Jane Doe, the drop in oil prices obviously leads to lower gasoline prices which will help the family budget. But as the old oil field joke goes, 'gasoline prices go up like a rocket but down lie a feather'. You must factor in your state taxes that are part of the gasoline price at the pump; all states are different. So, unfortunately, gasoline will not be going down to zero or negative, wouldn't that be great, since state taxes, fuel taxes, etc...., places a bottom in the gasoline price.

With oil prices crashing, traders looking for opportunities are eyeing USO, the largest oil exchange-traded fund (ETF) but investors, especially novice folks, should avoid the oil patch. USO has suspended creations of new shares. USO tracks the oil price futures and the managers had to change their criteria during the negative move in prices. USO now buys futures contracts in any forward month. Ma and Pa needs to stay away from USO. It may be a dead-man walking. The regulators are now monitoring and involved with USO daily.

Lots of traders, especially inexperienced souls, are running into USO without understanding all these problems occurring in the background. Even if oil prices perform a moonshot higher, do not expect USO to run that much higher. Simply stay away from the oil patch; there are plenty of other things to trade.

Another WisdomTree triple-leveraged oil ETP (exchange-traded product) instrument goes belly-up like two others a month ago. Keystone has told all of yinz for many years not to play any 3x ETF or ETN. Period. Those instruments are only designed for you to lose your money. If you want to speculate or are willing to take on higher risk, then dance on the wild side with a 2x ETF but tread softly there as well. For example, in these whipsaw markets, with stocks reversing direction every day or two, the 2x ETF's will eat you alive. Choppy sideways market moves chew up bulls and bears alike.

Oil is a vital key to US national security. No one wants to see the oil shale industry suffer, especially since those are high-paying jobs that also support ancillary jobs like the local doughnut shops, restaurants, copy centers, office supply stores and metal parts makers. Nazi Germany lost WW II because of their broken down fuel lines and lack of supplies. So the US must provide support for the oil industry from a security standpoint. However, what should be coming obvious to all folks, is that there is simply not enough money to bailout everything and everyone. President Trump is going to have to make a lot of tough decisions going forward and is already saying he will offer a lifeline to the oil patch. The oil-glut and demand-shock, with a little coronavirus sprinkled on top, is devastating to the oil industry. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/28/20: WTIC oil continues the downward slide crashing -19% to 10.35. Brent slips -3% to 19.35. USO crashes -15% down to 2.19. LOD 2.13.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/29/20: Futures contracts; Jun 20 at 11.22; Jul 20 at 18.43; Aug 20 at 21.92; Sept 20 at 24.37.

Friday, April 24, 2020

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart


The BPSPX, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, is on a double-whammy stock market sell signal despite recent market buoyancy. Markets are erratic and unstable changing direction more than a lady changes her clothes for a big night out. The choppy sideways price action chews up bulls and bears alike.

For the BPSPX, the six percentage-point reversals are key and the 70% line. In March, the bulls were in full control, the livin' was easy. The BPSPX issues a double-whammy buy signal as price pops above 70. Price peaks at 76. The BPSPX reverses 6 points and falls through the 70 level issuing a double-whammy sell signal. Then, in early April, the BPSPX bottoms at 44 so a reversal of 6 points, to 50, would issue a buy signal and it occurs. Then price moves above the 70 level for another double-whammy buy signal.

The action continues with the BPSPX topping-out at a lofty 91.60. A 6 point reversal is 85.60, which occurs, issuing a sell signal. Price then loses the 70 level for a double-whammy sell signal for the last three days.

The BPSPX prints 61 as a low the last three days so adding 6 is 67. Thus, the bulls got nothing unless they can send the BPSPX above 67 which would be a buy signal and confirmation that stocks have more upside juice. Bulls then need price to poke above 70 which would light the path to euphoric highs in stocks going forward. The bears, since they own the double-whammy sell signal right now, only have to keep the BPSPX below 66 and they are fine going forward. The market will run out of gas and roll over and die.

Bears win going forward as long as BPSPX remains below 67. Bulls win above 67 and win big time above 70. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:34 AM EST: The BPSPX is at 63.20 the bulls are pushing higher. The SPX gains 12 points, +0.4%, to 2810. VIX 39.48.

Note Added 1:08 PM EST: The SPX is up 8 points, +0.3%, to 2806. The 50-day MA resistance is at 2807 and price now hits its head on this critical moving average for the fourth time in six days. It's bounce or die time from 2806-2807. Price must choose a direction and quit goofing around. The BPSPX is at at 62.80. VIX 38.02. President Trump is talking at the Whitehouse. Keybot the Quant remains long mainly due to strong semiconductors that are the primary driver of the stock market direction currently. The SPX must bounce or die at the 50-day. The SOX is above the critical bull-bear line in the sand at 1630 called out by the quant so the bulls say price will move higher. The BPSPX, however, is on a double-whammy sell signal and the bears say price will move lower. One of these two parameters will flinch and confirm the direction forward.

Note Added 1:26 PM EST: SPX 2807.11. 50-day MA 2807.11.

Note Added 5:40 PM EST: Bulls win. Right after the prior message, booooiiiinnnngg. The SPX uses the 50-day as a springboard catapulting higher. The HOD is 2843 so the S&P 500 popped nearly 40 handles after resolving the 50-day. The SPX finishes up 39 points, +0.4%, to 2837. The 50-day MA is at 2808 and 200-day MA is at 3008. The BPSPX finishes the week at 64.60. The bulls are making a run as per the chart above. Today was only a battle and not the war. Keep watching SOX 1630 versus BPSPX 67. Keep an eye on copper as well because stronger copper will help send stocks higher. Here comes Donnie for the evening campaign briefing. Surprisingly, he starts by talking about the coronavirus. Okay, anyone want to make a wager as to when he will mention ventilators? Da vendaladors. Da vendaladors.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 4/29/20, at 8:16 AM EST:  The bulls push the BPSPX up through 67, through 70, through 80 now at 83.80 for a double-whammy buy signal on 4/27/20. Bulls are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again," the birds are churping and the lover's loving. Everyone continues to Kneel and Worship at the feet of the Central Banker Money God's believing in the Mystical Money Printing-Press enshrined in the bowels of the Eccles Building; every day is a par-tay without fear or worry.

Thursday, April 23, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain Ahead; Countries are Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective Equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5




by K E Stone

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected over 2.6 million people around the world murdering 184,000 (184K) souls. China’s killer virus has attacked and sickened over 850K Americans (0.3% of the 330 million US population) murdering nearly 48K United States citizens. One-third of all the world’s coronavirus cases and more than one-fourth of the deaths are in the United States. China's communist leadership did a number on America and must pay a price for their nefarious deed and cover-up.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 5 in the coronavirus series that serves as an archive and treasure trove of real-time information for historians, teachers, students, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic.




The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases ContinueRising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headedfor Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (ModernMonetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; CoronavirusArchive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The articles are spaced 10 days apart to allow time for more data and information to accumulate so the Keystone Model can be tweaked. This fifth article is published on 4/23/20, today, and the next article, number six in the series, is tentatively slated for publishing on Sunday, 5/3/20.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus around the world and its link is provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

TKSCIRM forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. Major trouble is ahead when the number of new coronavirus cases are increasing especially through the initial exponential phase. The daily new cases are typically shown in a bar chart format. The first thing to watch for with the Keystone Model is when the daily new cases begin leveling-off typically into a choppy sideways move. It is key that the new cases level off and begin drifting sideways lower since this will eventually create the top in the active cases curve which is the bell curve. The active case curve represents the maximum strain on the medical personnel and the hope for all countries is that this curve flattens out and then rolls over to the downside (the top of the bell forms and the virus cases begin dropping on the right side of the bell). Thus, the two key charts to monitor and study are the new case barchart and the active case bell curve.

When anyone refers to “flattening the curve” this is referencing the active case bell curve. Every Tom, Dick and Harry, including the politicians, are using these terms recklessly only creating more confusion. As you see the new cases level out, or flatten-out, this is NOT the ‘flattening of the curve’. The active case bell curve is the chart that you want to see flatten and roll over and is the chart to reference for "flattening the curve." This point cannot be emphasized enough since media outlets are now routinely referring to the new case bar chart as flattening the curve. Don’t do that!

Humorously, New York Governor Cuomo is using ‘hospitalizations’ as his key chart focus but this data does not correlate to active case data. Cuomo should define hospitalizations; does it include patients moved to a different hospital or medical unit after the initial hospital? This illustrates the chaos and confusion in the US with officials going off in different directions using different naming conventions. A central focus is needed to get everyone on the same page and talking the same data, apples and apples not apples and tomatoes or oranges and cucumbers. Don’t hold your breath; America is now the land of mediocrity so the confusion will continue. Assume that the word hospitalization touted by New York or other states, and by the media, is the same as a new case.

Now that the nomenclature is straight, and you understand that flattening the curve is only in reference to the active case bell curve, TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the next four days are watched to see if the new cases have peaked-out and are beginning a sideways leveling-off pattern, or, if the new cases will print a new high again. If the new cases remain lower than the peak new case date for four days after the peak, this date is the Confirmation Date and always represents five days of sideways behavior including the peak date. This is an excellent development and means that the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

Once the Confirmation Date is identified, 25 days are added to this date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date (top of bell curve). There is a choice of two time periods to apply depending If the country or region is well prepared with a pandemic plan, and if testing procedures and supplies are available, and if stay-at-home and lock-down measures for the population are implemented and enforced quickly, or, if the country is ill-prepared. South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China are the success stories thus far. These nations and regions have the best pandemic plans and testing protocols and reached their Active Case Peak Dates, on average, only 9 days after the Confirmation Date (only 14 days after the New Case Peak Date). Israel is another success story but the data needs to play out a little more there.

These countries with extensive testing programs were able to identify and quarantine infected individuals quickly leading to a faster resolution of the pandemic in that region. It is crystal clear from the data.

Conversely, countries less prepared, and those that took the initial COVID-19 threat less seriously, such as many European nations, the US, and UK, are getting hammered as they play catch-up. Since the success stories above are over their peak active caseloads and were the only ones prepared for a pandemic, all other nations can be assumed to take far longer than the 9 days between the Confirmation Date and Active Case Peak Date.

In fact, it takes 25 days or almost three times longer, as per the Keystone Model, for the active case bell curve to peak for the unprepared countries. This is disturbing since President Trump’s criteria for reopening the economy is 14 days past the new case peak date. Trump and his team patterned this 14-day number after the countries that were successful above. Trump’s plan does not use the active case bell curve chart which is stupid since the active case bell curve indicates the maximum strain on the medical system. Instead, Trump uses the new case bar chart and looks for 14 consecutive days of sideways or lower infections.

The US is larger geographically than other countries and was not as well prepared so America will take longer to peak-out. Trump may be in better forecasting shape if he used 30 days for their criteria on new cases rather than the 14 days (the Keystone Model forecasts the peak in the active case bell curve to occur 25 days after the Confirmation Date and 30 days after the New Case Peak Date). King Donnie is rolling the dice and he may be correct, or maybe not. Your future, career, family and life are on that dice table. Do you feel lucky?Well, do ya?

In the first bit of positive news in a long time, Italy’s active case bell curve has peaked. Keep your fingers crossed that it continues to roll over lower. The chart for Italy above illustrates the data provided below. Italy is important since it serves as an important data set for those countries that were not as well prepared for the pandemic. The US and others will likely follow Italy’s lead.

The Spain, France and Israel active case bell curves have also peaked, France only a day ago, so a few more days will be needed to confirm this positive development. The problem with Israel, France and Spain is poor testing so the active case curve could very well begin climbing again. The curve already paused and bumped higher again in Spain perhaps due to a more aggressive testing approach. France peaked-out on the active case curve only 14 days after the Confirmation Date, Spain peaked-out at 20 days and Israel in only 9 days.

If Israel has peaked-out, then it can be lumped in with the successful nations that see the peak in their active case bell curve about 9 days after the Confirmation Date. If Spain and France have truly peaked-out, and this is questionable, then a 20-day period between the Confirmation Date and the Active Case Peak Date should model well (reflecting an average of Italy, Spain and France at 25 days, 20 days and 14 days, respectively). A 20 to 25-day period between the Confirmation Date and Active Case Peak Date is starting to gel as a nice modeling number.

For now, the Keystone Model places more confidence in the Italy data since the top is holding for several days and their testing has ramped dramatically higher even overtaking Germany in testing. Spain and France continue to lag with testing. For the countries that have not yet topped-out on their curves, once the country or region confirms the sideways or lower pattern of five days with the new cases, the peak in the active case bell curve, representing the maximum strain on medical personnel, equipment and facilities, occurs 25 days later as per the Keystone Model.

It is interesting to ponder how the restarting of an economy meshes with the peaking and rolling over of the active case chart. As mentioned, Trump’s 9-day period from the Confirmation Date (or 14 days at or below the New Case Peak Date) to when he wants to restart the economy seems too tight. But what is correct? In fairness to Donnie, no one knows. We are in uncharted waters with the covid killer.

The economy will be restarted in phases since different professions require a physical closeness that others do not. A surveyor hiking in the Pennsylvania woodlands has little concern or fear of covid but a beautician in Chicago, restaurant server in New York, masseuse in Florida or bartender at a blues bar in Joisey (New Jersey) interacts hands-on with dozens of people each day. Focusing on when regular businesses, generally, should be able to operate, if people are very careful with hygiene and stay away from each other to every extent possible, the peak in the active case curve looks like a good candidate.

Since the coronavirus trouble continues at a fevers pitch for another week or two after the peak in active cases (the top of the bell curve is flattish then it begins dropping sharply), even though things are improving, the peak of the bell curve appears to be a logical time to signal the reopening of the economy. The medical folks will still be extremely busy for a week or two after the active case peak occurs, but then a substantial drop off in case load will follow immediately thereafter. In a week or so, Italy will be dancing in the streets and very happy because they will see how the virus data is improving very fast. Hang in there Italy since you have the problem licked now if you stay the course; it will all be obvious in a few days.

If people start back to work when the peak in the active case bell curve occurs, and get their bearings with their jobs over a week or two of time, this will coincide with the bell curve starting to drop off. The improvement in the virus data will turn frowns into smiles and people will become more positive and optimistic again which will aid the economic rebound. (Do not get your hopes up too much, however, since the global and US economy is toast overall.)

Thus, to match up this presentation with President Trump’s Phase 1 plan, instead of saying the state or region needs 14 days of flat or lower new cases to restart its economy, the criteria would be better if that was 30 days (to match the Keystone Model). If France and Spain are truly peaking, a couple or few days may be able to be shaved off the 30. Thus, Trump may be jumping the gun (restarting the economy) about 2 weeks too early. It may be best to bite the bullet and stick it out for the 30 days instead of 14 but only time will tell; the outcome will likely impact the president’s reelection possibilities. This timing is important because people returning to work too early will see the virus data not improving and this will stifle the animal spirits in the markets and economy and sour attitudes going forward.

Timing is tricky. In trading, like life, and restarting the economy, timing is everything. It may be best to send people back to work as the active case bell curve peaks and rolls over since people will become more optimistic from that point forward seeing the daily improvements in the virus data.

Keep in mind, as discussed in the prior article, the United States is large geographically and the virus will roll through regions at different times; it is as if the US is 2 or 3 regions size compared to the other data. For a given state, region or city in America, use that specific new case data and follow the Keystone Model to predict the peak in active case load for that respective region.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model identifies the New Case Peak Date (peak in new infections), then makes sure the new cases are truly leveling-off with the Confirmation Date (five days of flat or lower new cases), and then adds 25 days to forecast the Active Case Peak Date (top of bell curve) which is the maximum demand on the medical system.

Countries are listed below in the order of when the coronavirus will peak-out and begin to diminish.

China
2/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest number of new infection cases) (a subsequent spike on 2/12/20 is ignored; China’s data is very suspect and of limited use)
2/8/20 Confirmation Date (the sideways move in new cases is confirmed for 5 days)
2/17/20 Active Case Peak Date (top of active case bell curve occurs representing maximum strain on medical facilities) (14 days after the New Case Peak Date and 9 days after the Confirmation Date)

South Korea
3/3/20 New Case Peak Date
3/7/20 Confirmation Day
3/11/20 Active Case Peak Date although 3/15/20 is also a peak (4 days after the Confirmation Date)

Switzerland
3/20/20 New Case Peak Date
3/24/20 Confirmation Date
3/31/20 Active Case Peak Date (7 days after Confirmation Date)

Australia
3/22/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy day also on 3/29/20)
3/26/20 Confirmation Date
4/4/20 Active Case Peak Date (9 days after Confirmation Date)

Germany
3/27/20 New Case Peak Date
3/31/20 Confirmation Date
4/6/20 Active Case Peak Date (6 days after Confirmation Date)

Taiwan
3/20/20 New Case Peak Date (big spike occurs 4/19/20 but it is not more than the peak)
3/24/20 Confirmation Date
4/6/20 Active Case Peak Date (13 days after Confirmation Date)

Hong Kong
3/29/20 New Case Peak Date
4/2/20 Confirmation Date
4/7/20 Active Case Peak Date (5 days after Confirmation Date)

Israel
4/2/20 New Case Peak Date (big spikes occur on 4/9/20 and 4/22/20 but are not greater than the peak)
4/6/20 Confirmation Date
4/15/20 Active Case Peak Date (9 days after Confirmation Date)

Below are the countries and regions that were not as well prepared for the coronavirus outbreak;

Italy
3/21/20 New Case Peak Date
3/25/20 Confirmation Date
4/19/20 Active Case Peak Date (25 days after Confirmation Date and 30 days after the New Case Peak Date; use for modeling purposes)

Spain
3/26/20 New Case Peak Date
3/30/20 Confirmation Date
4/19/20 Active Case Peak Date (20 days after Confirmation Date but wait a few more days to verify the top of the active case bell curve; the data is suspect due to Spain’s lack of testing)

France
4/3/20 New Case Peak Date
4/7/20 Confirmation Date
4/21/20 Active Case Peak Date (14 days after Confirmation Date but it is only one day for the peak; wait a few more days to verify the top of the active case bell curve; the data is suspect due to France’s lack of testing)

Philippines
3/31/20 New Case Peak Date
4/4/20 Confirmation Date
4/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)

United States
4/4/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection days also on 4/7/20, 4/9/20 and 4/10/20)
4/8/20 Confirmation Date
5/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)

Sweden
4/8/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection day also on 4/9/20)
4/12/20 Confirmation Date
5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)

UK
4/10/20 New Case Peak Date
4/14/20 Confirmation Date
5/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Ecuador
4/10/20 New Case Peak Date
4/14/20 Confirmation Date
5/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Japan
4/11/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection date on 4/15/20)
4/15/20 Confirmation Date
5/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Turkey
4/11/20 New Case Peak Date
4/15/20 Confirmation Date
5/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Peru
4/13/20 New Case Peak Date
4/17/20 Confirmation Date
5/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Brazil
4/15/20 New Case Peak Date (Brazil data is suspect already showing that the peak occurred in active cases and that is not correct; expectation is for the active case curve to print new highs once more testing occurs or time passes)
4/19/20 Confirmation Date
5/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Canada
4/17/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection dates also on 4/20/20 and 4/22/20)
4/21/20 Confirmation Date
5/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Indonesia
4/12/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/16/20 Confirmation Date (the active case peak is forecasted for 5/11/20 but this projection is nullified when new cases drive higher)
4/17/20 New Case Peak Date
4/21/20 Confirmation Date
5/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

India
4/18/20 New Case Peak Date
4/22/20 Confirmation Date
5/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Russia
4/19/20 New Case Peak Date
4/23/20 Projected Confirmation Date (today)
5/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Mexico
4/20/20 New Case Peak Date
4/24/20 Projected Confirmation Date
5/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Singapore
3/25/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
3/29/20 Confirmation Day (the active case peak is forecasted for 4/23/20 but this projection is nullified when new cases drive higher)
4/1/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/5/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/9/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/13/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/15/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/16/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/18/20 New Case Peak Date (nullified)
4/20/20 New Case Peak Date
4/24/20 Projected Confirmation Day (5 days of new cases levelling off)
5/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (25 days)
May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

The United States should peak-out on the active case bell curve chart on 5/3/20 which is 10 days hence and that is if the social distancing, masks, hygiene and other measures remain in effect. Anyone returning to work must be careful. Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Alaska are reopening their economies tomorrow. Good luck to them.

The UK and Ecuador should hit the peak in their active case bell curve on 5/9/20 which is over 2 weeks away. The covid battle will remain intense in the UK and Ecuador until then. Japan and Turkey will peak next on 5/10/20 followed by Peru on 5/12/20. Brazil is next peaking out with their active caseload on 5/14/20 and then Canada 5/16/20. Indonesia will also peak on 5/16/20 and India on 5/17/20 which is over 3 weeks in the future. Truly the Lord Must Have Mercy on Their Souls. Russia is in deep trouble and will not peak until 5/18/20. Mexico and Singapore bring the gloom with a projected peak date of 5/19/20 a month away.

Sweden is taking a unique approach to fighting COVID-19 by not implementing the draconian lockdowns and stay-at-home policies that other countries, including the United States, are following. The idea is that a herd immunity will develop if you simply let the virus run its course. Interestingly, many people are choosing to stay at home anyway so the concept of allowing herd immunity to occur will likely not be adequately measured. The information above shows Sweden is in the pack with other countries and slated to top out on the active case bell curve on 5/7/20.

A glass-full optimistic chap will say the brightside is that in a month most nations on earth will have peaked with their active case charts (although Africa may still face issues). The glass-empty guy says North America is looking sad. Even though the US should peak out in about 10 days, Canada and Mexico remain in the soup. Since they are next door neighbors, and America is the salami between their slices of bread, the virus may linger in the US for a while.

The countries and regions that did the most extensive testing and that implemented draconian lock-down methods gained control of the coronavirus situation the fastest. China conducted extensive testing and implemented a commie lockdown; it is easy under communist rule. South Korea’s strong testing program is creating a positive result. Ditto Germany, Switzerland and Australia. Chancellor Merkel was finishing her tenure on a downbeat but with the positive handling of the coronavirus so far, she will be heralded in the history books.

There is lots of concern over the economy in the United States and other countries. People and businesses are going bankrupt. Americans are unhappy that the money slated to help small business went to companies with connections and also to large companies. Most Americans continue waiting for the $1200 government stimulus check. The crony companies got their money before individuals. Such is the crony capitalism system. So there is lots of unhappiness around the bailout measures. Some employees are unhappy that the business receives a bailout loan because they would make more money if unemployed (adding up the government goodies). The world is topsy-turvy but this must be how crony capitalism ends.

By the time the Trump restarting plan becomes relevant, perhaps a month and more from now, the plan may need rewritten since many new things will be known by then. Trump has a problem with working on priorities. The failure to implement the Defense Production Act to force manufacturers to run their factories 24/7 for the production of masks, gowns, face shields, PPE (personal protective equipment), testing kits and supplies is complete incompetence. Fortunately, the president is coming up to speed. It is shameful that there remains shortages of PPE and testing supplies four months into the coronavirus tragedy. There is no excuse.

Last Saturday, President Trump berated the governors for not using all the great testing capacity he has provided while on Sunday he backtracks and implements the Defense Act for the production of swabs (that are required for the testing units). Better late than never.

King Donnie is obviously concerned about the testing taint that is developing over the last week and is doing everything possible to distance himself. Each day for a month at the campaign rally/virus briefing, Trump bragged about the coronavirus testing in the United States and we are the best, he is the best, you know, all that same-o rot. Donnie was the best at virus testing in the world; it must be true because he told us so. Trump now avoids the testing subject like the plague, er, like coronavirus, and proclaims that the testing responsibility lies directly with the states. Of course he does since the situation is now a mess. The ironic and sad part of it is that testing paves the way to restarting the economy which is what the president wants. Trump is a poor manager; that is why his casinos went bankrupt years ago.

Trump’s daddy gave Donnie $460 million dollars that 40 years later results in a net worth about $1 to $3 billion (of course Trump will not disclose his financial records since it is likely embarrassing). That is not an investment record to be proud of or one that receives the financial genius award. He is lucky he did not lose the money.

The half-truth’s and lies continue by both of the corrupt political parties. Trump sends Vice President Pence to the microphone to declare that all states have the virus testing capacity needed to implement the first phase of the reopening of the economy plan. Here is how the baby political game is played. Pence is correct saying the testing ‘capacity’ is available. Most states, and hospitals and medical facilities in these states have the testing units, such as Abbott’s testing unit, in place. Great. But there is one problemmo. The testing units sit there idle since there are shortages and unavailability of test tubes, reagents, testing fluids and swabs to gather the samples from the patients and run the tests. It is like having a brand new Cadillac in the driveway so everyone can see you’re a big shot but in reality, there is no engine in the car.

This is why Pence is using the word capacity and talking very carefully. Thus, the capacity for testing is available but the actual testing for the coronavirus cannot be performed at the level it needs to for returning Americans to work. The democrats would be playing the same political baby games as the republicans if they held the presidency. The two parties are two sides of the same corrupt crony capitalism coin. It is a good thing that crony capitalism is dying its last breath over the coming years and the US will make the transition into a system that is fair for common people and not rigged for the elite class.

It is odd how the Trump administration keeps downplaying the coronavirus situation holding up unaffected or lightly infected regions on the US map as examples of where the virus is under control. The regions or states cited are simply areas that are not yet infected. The virus is spreading. Back in March, President Trump proudly announced the number of virus cases would drop to zero in a week’s time. Wrong. In recent days, the task force is touting the Midwest states, the Heartland, as a shining example of where the virus is under control. The virus is spreading inward to the center of the country so those regions simply have not yet experienced COVID-19. It is strange to cheerlead these areas when in a couple weeks their infections will likely be ramping strongly higher. Trump is trying to place a positive spin on the tragedy any way possible since he realizes the handling of the virus situation will likely dictate whether he is reelected, or not. This is why Donnie is distancing himself from the testing controversy currently.

Protests and social unrest is increasing in Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia and California. People want to get back to work to support their families. The emergency funding program provided by the government is off to a shaky start. Most individuals and families have not started receiving the government payments until the last few days. The small business program ran out of money in only one week’s time but Congress is passing a new spending bill today with more aid for businesses. In truth, moving forward, the government simply does not have the money to bail everyone out. All nations are in the same boat and sadly this is when countries choose to go to war.

The crony capitalism system always takes care of their own. Most of the small business loans went to the favorites of the banks and these companies are typically in less need than the true small business owner. Harvard took money but then gave it back. Major restaurant chains ShakShak, Ruth's Steakhouse and Potbelly took money but were shamed into giving it back. The chains qualified as small businesses by counting the franchise stores individually. Obviously these huge companies employ tens of thousands of employees. Isn't human ingenuity, when focused like a laser on greed, something to behold? Small business is defined as under 500 employees. Many people envision the local barber shop, hairdresser, dry cleaners and pizza shop as small businesses, and they are, but few realize that companies with 500 employees are also small business. Many very small businesses, the Mom and Pop's, do not have steady banking relationships and are getting left out in the cold while the larger small business managers sit around smoking cigars with their fat banker buddies deciding how much easy money they plan to stuff into their pockets.

The testing situation is key in determining if reopening the economy is successful, or not. There are long discussions occurring these days concerning the sense of proportion between sending people back to work that need money to support their families, but may become ill from the virus, or, maintaining the stay-at-home rules and delaying the opening of the economy to make sure the virus is nipped in the bud. There are think-tanks, media and officials pondering how many deaths would occur due to the virus if people return to work versus how many US citizens would die if the lockdown remains in effect (people are going stir crazy with potentially more violent spouse and child abuse occurring or simply flipping out from going bankrupt because they can no longer support themselves). These are not easy questions. There are serious moral and ethical issues.

If penniless but in good health, you can always rise to win another day financially, however, if in poor health and sick with covid, you can absolutely no longer work and all the money in the world may not save you.

A first coronavirus death is now identified in California earlier in February than the other case. It is now suspected that the coronavirus was in California far earlier than thought perhaps in September or October. Many deaths this year are chalked up to the regular flu but the California data hints that far more may have died of COVID-19. It makes the whole situation that much harder to understand. There was likely a lot of unknown community transmission occurring in America from the Fall to the present. A testing and tracing program will shed more light on the virus situation but tracking opens up the privacy and Big Brother issue.

Centralized government should make everyone nervous. Americans do not realize that by agreeing to allow drones to track human movements and such, under the guise of health or safety concerns, is giving up your liberty and freedom forever. This is what red China does now.

Looking at the Johns-Hopkins virus map, many travelers from China first stop in California. The oddity is that California’s data is holding up half-decently and the reason may be that the virus was already in that state for a few months. You can also see on the map the heavily infected areas such as New Jersey and New York that welcomed infected travelers from Europe. Chicago is also another major hub. Florida is also a key entry state into America and it is heavily infected. Also Colorado, which is interesting since many travelers probably sought out that destination to sample a little bit of that RockyMountain High, as John Denver would sing (marijuana is legal in Colorado).

States in the central north such as Idaho and Wyoming are sparsely populated and ready to get back to work but unfortunately the virus may be slowly spreading in that direction.

China doubles the death count in Wuhan where the coronavirus started likely from a bioweapon’s project gone wrong. The filthy lying communist leadership story keeps changing all the time. China can be dealt with at a future time once the world overcomes coronavirus.

In North Korea, the so-called Hermit Kingdom, there are rumors that Kim Jung-un is gravely ill after heart surgery. That’s not rocket science. He is a 37-year old murdering twerp that is 5’7” tall (1.7 m), 300 pounds (136 kg), a heavy drinker and a chain smoker. As if this is not enough, he also has a bad haircut.

President Trump announces a ban (temporary) on immigration the other day. It is a treat to watch the reality television show master manipulate the crowd. Trump loves to announce something that causes controversy and then he always pares down the issue as he did with this immigration drama as well. You can see it coming a mile away. That’s Our Donnie. The republicans cheer Donnie because he is appointing the conservative judges that will remain in place for years, and decades, to come. In back rooms and behind the scenes, his own party faithful will laugh at the bloviating clown, but in public praise him since it is a means to an end; getting the conservative judges in place.

Democrats accuse Trump of diverting attention away from the lack of virus testing by hyping the immigration ban. The repub
licans accuse the democrats of grandstanding accusing the president of diverting. Isn’t it all so nauseating? That’s crony capitalism on full display.

The price of a barrel of oil crashed and went negative this week for the first time in history. Global demand for oil has fallen off a cliff so anyone expecting a sharp economic recovery is mistaken. Many of you that lost your jobs need to realize you will never work there again.

Americans wonder if another Great Depression is at hand ushered in by President Donnie “Herbert Hoover” Trump and the coronavirus. The images of cars lined up for two miles at food bank lines (please understand that the situation is overwhelming for the volunteers) is reminiscent of the people standing in bread lines during the Great Depression. “Hey buddy, can you spare a dime,” was often said by folks standing on street corners with tin cups in hand. The Bugs Bunny cartoons still depicted depression-era scenes into the 1970’s. Everyone scrounged for pennies to get by another day.

Keystone’s dear grand Aunt Heddie, that passed years ago, was a child of the Great Depression. For her entire life, at all family gatherings or whenever she ate at a restaurant, she always made butter breads, wrapping them in napkins and tucking them into her purse; she did that for decades her entire life into her 90's. Do you think the Great Depression impacted Heddie’s entire life? Damn right it did. She didn’t need those butter breads. She ate fine throughout her life but it shows how events can impact your mind forever. She never forgot what it was like to go to bed hungry. You would never forget either if it ever happened to you. Perhaps your life will be impacted in many ways you never thought possible? Perhaps it is changing already? Perhaps some good may come from dealing with China's killer virus?

Recapping, the Keystone Infection Rate Model can be used to project the peak in active case load (the top of the bell curve) which represents the maximum strain on the medical system.  First identify the peak day of new cases. Then verify that this sideways pattern continues for at least 5 days. Add 25 days to this date to project when the top in the active case bell curve will occur. This can be used for any country, region, state or city.

America should peak in early May so the question will be if people returning to work will increase the spread of the virus, or, if we continue on this path and peak out in the US on 5/3/20. Time will tell and Trump’s reelection likely hangs in the balance.

There remains ongoing shortages of PPE especially masks and the testing program continues playing catch-up. All in all, Trump is likely doing about as well as anyone else would under the circumstances. He loves the nightly press briefings since he uses them to bolster his reelection campaign. Sleepy Joe Biden, as Trump calls his democrat opponent in the November presidential election, is missing in action. The lockdown hampers Biden’s campaign while it is an advantage for King Donnie.

Each press briefing starts with Trump berating any negative article or comment on him over the last day. Donnie’s skin is as thin as tissue paper. Then he will berate Biden for a while and the democrats in general. He will demean Pelosi. Then he will denigrate the media, who he invited there for the briefing. After Trump finishes this standard business each evening, he then provides some information on the coronavirus.

Trump loves to brag about the ventilator production. He proclaims that he is king of “da vend-da-la-dors” in a New York accent. Young folks may think about a drinking game taking a swig each time Donnie says “vend-da-la-dors.” It’s hysterically funny and worthy of a SNL (Saturday Night Live) skit. Watch his press briefing tonight. He will brag about ventilators for at least two or three times during the briefing for a couple minutes each.

Hang in there everyone no matter what your location around the world. Use the Keystone Model as a guide that helps you prepare for the path ahead. As Italy, France and Spain roll over from the top of the active case bell curve that should improve the international mood and provide hope for the road ahead albeit many of the countries listed above have another 2 to 4 weeks of very tough sledding.

As this article is written, GILD crashes -6.2% and is halted from trading. Gilead is the maker of Remdesivir which showed great promise in treating coronavirus but alas, a leaked study indicates that the drug was not useful. That sucks. The stock market tumbles lower from the day’s highs the S&P 500 loses about 50 handles before recovering and the Dow Industrials lose about 340 handles. The intraday market action shows how traders, and especially the trading algorithms, are trading directly off COVID-19 news.

Note Added 4:05 PM EST: GILD ends the session down -4.3% on the disappointing Remdesivir study. The major indexes finish flattish on the day. The SPX Index, the S&P 500, which is the United States stock market, is at 2798. The Dow Jones Industrials Index watched by the general public is at 23515. The SPX topped-out at 3393.52, call it 3394, on 2/19/20. The stock market crashed -35.4% dropping to 2191.86, call it 2192, on 3/23/20. The 23-day crash is the fastest stock market crash in American history; there's another record for President Trump although he will likely not boast about this one. The SPX then rallies from 2192 to 2879.22, call it 2879, a +31.3% snap-back relief rally of course driven by the Federal Reserve and other central bank largess. The House passes a $484 billion spending bill. What a joke of a financial system it has become. President Trump will sign it. The politico's are already discussing the next spending package; manna from heaven. There is not enough money to bail everything and everyone out besides, this is the complete opposite of capitalism. There is talk that some of the states in the US deep in debt, such as Illinois, may be allowed, or forced, to file bankruptcy. The states are disappointed that the spending bill did not include funding for state and local governments. Perhaps some of the public employees with lucrative pensions may be receiving hair cuts down the road. Of course services will have to be curtailed (police, fire, garbage, road repair, etc...) as the tax base dwindles and local, state and Federal government coffers go empty. State and local employees will be sh*t-canned and services will suffer going forward. The president hugs the limelight again conducting another virus briefing that denigrates democrats, bashes Biden, berates the media and tells everyone he's the best at everything. Da vendaladors, da vendaladors. Trump says he may extend the social distancing guidelines from the 4/30/20 expiration into the summer perhaps beyond. Of course Showman Donnie says "may" since you have to tune in tomorrow when he will talk about it again but provide no guidance. This drama will keep everyone tuned into the reality television show virus briefing each evening until next week when Donnie will unveil the big decision. Be sure to tune in for this social distancing decision episode; check your local channel listings for times. It is sickening to watch after a while just as President Obama's antics got old. Clean up needed in aisle three. Trump talks about injecting disinfectants into people to treat the virus which causes the doctors to wince. Lysol, a top manufacturer of disinfectant products, immediately releases a statement telling people to not ingest, inject or inhale any disinfectant or cleaner in any way. Of course Lysol does not want sued if some dumbo picks up a bottle of cleaner and takes a swig as per the presidents comments. Donnie appears a little off the rails with this disinfectant stuff, it is a bit wild even for him, maybe the doc's need to adjust his meds. As businesses slowly reopen, perhaps a smart decision perhaps not, there will be requirements to wear masks but one thing is for certain; humans look like *ssholes walking around in masks.

Note Added 8:19 PM EST: Philippine dirtbag dictator Duterte says the country is running out of funds. The lockdown is extended to 5/15/20. Those scenic islands, such as the white sand beaches at Boracay, are turning into H*ll on earth. S&P futures are down -17 points. Dow futures -101.

Note Added 9:04 PM EST: S&P futures -21.

Note Added 4:34 AM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: S&P futures -7. US 10-year yield 0.59%. Gold 1729. WTIC oil is at 16 bucks recovering from the historic negative rout this week. If any of you are trying to make sense of the economic mess, and wondering what to do going forward, get yourself out of debt. The debt service is palatable now, probably for a year or two as disinflation and deflation play out, but variable rate loans will likely increase sharply in the following years. Therefore, focus your attention on reducing debt since it will smoke you in the coming years when rates start ramping higher. Deflation is a far bigger fear than inflation right now and overall from a historic market and economic standpoint. It is a quagmire that is difficult to escape. Japan is in a three-decade deflationary slump. The term 'deflationary spiral' is tossed about here and there these days. Deflation is evidenced by lower prices so the immediate reaction is great, everything will be cheap to buy. That is correct but there is a big problem; human behavior. When people see falling prices, like now, and they had plans to purchase something, instead of rushing out to buy it taking advantage of the cost savings, they will tend to wait another week because the price may be even cheaper; hence, the deflationary spiral. As prices continue dropping, companies do not keep you around for your good looks, they will can you. As more folks lose jobs, the deflationary spiral continues with prices dropping further. This is the Great Depression scenario. In a couple years, however, we will likely extract ourselves from this mess and jump into a new mess; inflation. Rates will begin to rise and your monthly loan obligations will increase. This is why it is important to take advantage of the coming months and get yourself out of debt to every extent possible. Once rates start climbing higher, it will be too late for some of you. The inflation period will then move into hyperinflation as the velocity of money sitting at banks is put to immediate use. The Dow will be running higher to 30K, 40K, 50K in a few years but it will not be joyful since the dollar will be toilet paper and the cost of a gallon of gas, or a loaf of bread, will be $10 and climbing. Look at all the fun you get to look forward to over the coming months and years.  We need Fanfare for the Common Man to pump everyone up from their downtrodden posture. As Monty Python says, we must always look on the bright side of life.

Note Added 6:33 AM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: S&P futures are up +14. VIX 40.15. Futures float higher as traders are willing to forget all the bad news since the central banks are printing money like madmen and governments are tossing money and coins to the crowd below; analogous to Caligula climbing the marble column centuries ago and, for amusement, tossing bags of money to the crowd below, simply to watch them tear each other apart. Oh how history rhymes.

Note Added 12:37 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: The S&P is up 7 points, +0.3%, to 2805.  VIX 37.97. President Trump signs the $484 billion spending bill. Tragically, the coronavirus deaths in the United States cross 50,000. Over 16K bodies are stacked up in New York alone. That communist Beijing leadership, led by dirtbag Dictator Xi, must pay a dear price for their murderous COVID-19 deed. The Chinese Wuhan virus has killed over 17 times the number of Americans than the Saudi-based terrorists did on 9-11. In the future, the US will have to wipe that Winnie the Pooh smile off Dictator Xi's face (Xi has outlawed all cartoons, books, etc.., that involve Winnie the Pooh because it was being used as a caricature of himself; these dirtbag dictators are all the same with paper-thin skin). Xi donates millions to WHO yesterday after President Trump pulled away from funding for WHO until an analysis of the organization, and what went wrong with the reporting of COVID-19, is performed. Xi and WHO are commingling in their sick coronavirus bed.

Note Added 5:40 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: The SPX finishes the session up 39 points, +0.4%, to 2837. Copper ran higher providing market strength. The SPX bounces up off the 50-day MA at 2808. The 200-day MA is at 3008. Here comes Donnie for the evening campaign briefing. Surprisingly, he starts by talking about the coronavirus. Okay, anyone want to make a wager as to when the president will brag about the ventilators? Da vendaladors. Da vendaladors.

Note Added 5:44 PM EST on Friday, 4/24/20: The answer is 4 minutes. Da vendaladors. Da vendaladors. Donnie is becoming too predictable. It's hilarious albeit tragic. The coronavirus deaths in the United States are now near 52,000 only a few hours after they crossed 50K

Note Added 8:25 AM EST on Saturday, 4/25/20: President Trump did not take questions during the briefing last evening. This is odd since he calls the media there to the Whitehouse press room where questions are asked; that is the function of the room. There is an ongoing backlash occurring, of course fueled by the left-wing media such as cable news outlets CNN and MSNBC, and broadcast networks, about Trump's comments on injecting disinfectant to treat coronavirus. Donnie only made it worse claiming that he was being sarcastic but anyone can watch the video over and over and there was no sarcasm there. Donnie creates another pickle for himself since he is incapable of ever saying he is wrong. The Whitehouse is rethinking the evening briefings because the president's approval rating keeps slipping lower and lower the more his orange head appears on television. The nightly pressers have morphed into ad hominem attacks on democrats, the media, Biden, fake news (which is any article that paints Donnie in a bad light), etc...., and became cringe-worthy a couple nights ago with the ingesting and injecting of cleaning products talk. Trump delivered a softball to the liberal media that dislikes him; he only has himself to blame touting a bunch of nonsense when people want clear answers, directions and legitimate hope and optimism. President Trump's approval rating is slipping so it makes sense that his handlers may finally change up the daily press briefings. Four weeks ago, Trump was riding high with over 46% of the country approving of the job he is doing, so he was at the top of his usual range and perhaps ready to break-out higher, while 49% did not. The president's approval rating oscillates between 42% and 48% since he has been elected, a couple of polls will occasionally hand him a 50% handle, however, as the coronavirus tragedy continues, with no end in sight, the numbers are deteriorating. Right now, 43% approve of the job he is doing, a drop of three percentage-points, and over 53% disapprove of his job performance, an increase of four percentage-points. Obviously, his reelecton committee stepped in and told him to take it easy and let's sort things out this weekend. The poll is a negative seven percentage-point swing in only four weeks. People see the briefings every night where all is fine and Trump says he is the best at everything, we're the best, you're the best, I'm the best, but then when you watch the other news casts you see all the suffering and medical personnel still without masks and equipment and testing units sitting idle for lack of supplies. People may also be freaking out with the president giving medical advice each evening and now he is spouting a bunch of snake-oil type remedies. It is hilarious from a carnival-barker's perspective but no one is in a laughing mood with this Chinese COVID-19 killer still on the loose. Trump needs to focus on the priorities and providing clear facts, direction and hope to people if he wants to lift his approval numbers. This is something you cannot teach; you are either a born a leader, or you are not, and the major events decide your fate in the game of life. Donnie should focus on less song and dance on the press room stage and more getting the job done in the trenches feeling the people's pain (as Slick Willie Clinton would opine).

Note Added 4:44 AM EST on Sunday Morning, 4/26/20: The coronvirus news turns grim. Nine countries listed above now drop below Singapore in the timeline of when COVID-19 will peak in their respective nations. It is terrible and tragic news. The new cases have spiked dramatically in the United States and elsewhere on Friday, Saturday and today. This is likely due to increased testing which finally begins to identify everyone sick with coronavirus. As per the Keystone Model above, first the new cases have to peak which is called the New Case Peak Date. Then, after four more days a leveling off in the new cases is verified by the Confirmation Date. The peak in active cases, the top of the bell curve, which represents the maximum strain on medical facilities, then occurs 25 days after the Confirmation Date, or 30 days after the New Case Peak Date. Thus, with many countries now showing large spikes in new cases taking out their prior new case peaks, this coronavirus tragedy is going to linger a long time. The nations now reporting spikes in new cases will likely not peak out on the active case bell curve for a month which is late May even into early June because the new cases may increase further in the coming days. Canada reports a new peak in new cases on 4/23/20. The United States, Sweden, Ecuador and Indonesia report new case peak days on 4/24/20. Russia, Peru, Brazil and Mexico report the highest number of new cases thus far today, 4/25/0. This is terrible news and means that restarting the economy is likely premature. President Trump's guideline about new cases leveling off and falling for 14 days is blown out of the water. Since the new cases peak this weekend, 13 more days have to pass before businesses would be allowed to be open under phase one of the president's own plan. What a mess. The dude provided a plan prematurely; instead he needs to focus on supplying testing supplies and PPE which remain in short supply three months or more into this mess. President Trump is pondering firing US Heath Secretary Alex Azar using him as the scapegoat for the slow reaction to the COVID-19 tragedy. This is interesting from the standpoint that the Trump administration appears to finally concede that they have been slow to respond to the coronavirus tragedy. King Donnie must have known the spike in new cases was occurring this weekend which is why the press briefings went numb over the last two days. There was no briefing yesterday and the president would not take questions, in the press room, on Friday. Trump will have a hard time yelling "fake news" when the data shows the spike in new cases this weekend. It's a mess. Trump is correct to question WHO's motives. China and WHO are commingling in the coronavirus bed together along with many billionaires around the world. Be wary of all the talk of "tracing and tracking." Big Brother wants to take control and the virus is a great opportunity to convince the little idiots to allow tracking on their smartphones. Many folks have very little daily contact with people so if they contract covid, they can simply write down on a sheet of paper who they saw over the last two weeks with contact information; that is all the government needs, or deserves. Every few hours in the media, the WHO says there may be no immunity from the virus. Of course they do. They want to make you afraid and scared of your own shadow because they are part of the agenda to move towards tracking all humans on earth; the mark of the beast. The fascinating aspect of the virus mess is that the eventual outcome to resolving the situation may be herd immunity and not treatments or vaccines. In other words, many of you are going to get the virus. Sweden is taking the herd immunity approach but it will not be a good case study since folks are staying at home anyways and society is not functioning properly like everywhere else on earth. Note that the US and Sweden are now projected to top out on the active case curve at the same time on 5/24/20; likely late May early June. The US is using the stay-at-home measures and it is interesting to see the two countries in the same pickle despite fighting the virus with two different methods. Both the US and Sweden may have about 20% of their populations already exposed to the virus; many people are asymptomatic never realizing they had the virus. Herd immunity needs about 80% and more to snuff out the threat. 54,000 people have died in the US from China's Wuhan coronavirus. May the Lord Have Mercy on All Our Souls. Don't forget to smile, Steve will show you how.