SPX S&P 500 and VIX Volatility Weekly Charts; VIX No Longer Dropping as Stock Market Rallies Identifying a Top

Something's Always Wrong. In this example, it is Uncle Vix. He refuses to lay on the floor anymore watching the stock market go higher. VIX levels off this year and as the SPX prints an all-time historic high at 5878, volatility actually rises as the all-time highs are printed. Something is very wrong with this picture. Be very afraid if you are long the stock market.

There are a couple of previous fractals exhibiting the same exact behavior as now that can be used as examples. In late 2019, the VIX leveled off and as 2020 started, and the stock market made new highs, the VIX also rallied. The VIX moves inversely to the stock market over 90% of the time so the US stock market printing a new high as volatility also rises gets your attention. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020 sending the stock market into Hades.

Same behavior in 2021. The stock market was rallying to beat the band in 2021 but the VIX leveled off and was not dropping as it should since stocks were Happy. As the SPX printed a higher high at the very end of 2021, the VIX was actually rising waving a big red flag. That started the 2022 swoon in stocks. Do you think the prior behavior will repeat? Of course it will. What are you, stupid?

The SPX chart shows the three tops all occurring with negative divergence across all chart indicators (red lines) so it was easy to call the top and pending neggie d spankdown, like now. Price is also extended above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower.

The green circles show buyable bottoms over the last few years. There are others that were not highlighted. The pandemic spike above 85 was bigtime verifying rampant fear and panic. That represents the world ending. However, as a professional trader, that is when you step in to buy. Investors are running from the burning building swearing that they will never own a stock ever again, as long as they live, and that is when you conveniently take the shares off their hands (accumulation). These dolts are the bag-holding sucka's that chase stocks higher, like now, so they get what they deserve. Do not swim with the sharks if you do not know what you are doing.

The same-day options have gained in popularity over the last year, or zero days to expiration, 0DTE if you prefer, so the natural response to the above chart is to blame the new derivatives and offerings for the unexpected behavior in the VIX. Wrongo. Even if the VIX is not used as much as an outright play or for hedging these days, the trend behavior should still be in place, and the charts above clearly show that is the case.

If you are long the stock market, you are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer and your shoelaces are untied. Life has many choices. Are you making a major trading mistake now? Mama Tried to steer me right, Mama tried, Mama tried. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPCE CBOE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Stock Market Complacency, Fearlessness and Ecstatic Euphoria Identifies Pending Top as SPX Prints All-Time Historic High at 5878

The SPX (S&P 500; United States Stock Market) prints a new all-time high last Thursday, 10/17/24, at 5878. Happy Days Are Here Again.

The stock market euphoria is, literally, off the charts as shown above. The CPCE put/call ratio is down to 0.42 at multi-year lows verifying the rampant complacency, euphoria and blatant fearlessness. It is a stock market top. Pride always cometh before a fall.

The stock market complacency was rampant in 2021 with stocks rallying to the stratosphere all year long. The low points in the chart above in 2021 correspond to peaks in the SPX all the way into the late 2021 stock market top. As 2022 started, the SPX dropped -1200 points into the October 2022 low. On average, that is a drop of about -135 SPX points each month for 9 straight months.

When the stock market initially fell to kick-off 2022 on a sour note, the SPX dumped about 600 points in a couple months, then recovered 400 points into the April 2022 top identified by the red circle. From there, the downside continued into the October 2022 low dumping about a 1000 points.

The July 2023 rampant complacency above identified the stock market top where the SPX then dropped about 400 points into the October 2023 low. The expectation for the pending dump due to rampant trader optimism and euphoria would be -400 points minimum and perhaps another -1200 point plunge over the coming weeks and few months.

There is strong price support at SPX 5200-ish so it is reasonable to expect a -600 or -700 point drop in the S&P 500 over the coming weeks. The SPX has topped-out due to negative divergence in the hourly, daily and weekly time frames so the week ahead is key to see if the multi-week path of misery, agony and pain commences in a big way. Maybe a Black Monday? I've been for a walk on a Fall day. The beautiful scenic colorful hills of the Laurel Mountains of southwestern Pennsylvania this morning are spectacular and right now no one is California Dreamin', but give it a few weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour, Daily and Weekly Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedges; Negative Divergence; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation; Excessive Bullish Euphoria Rarely Seen in Stock Market History; SPX All-Time Record High Occurs at 5878 on 10/17/24

Are you girding your loins? If long, you should be girding night and day. If you are bullish on the stock market, that means everyone reading this since the only bears remaining are Slim and None and Slim just left town, you need to be very scared.

Comically, or historically if you prefer, the Aroon's on the SPX 2-hour, daily and weekly charts all show 100% of the bulls expecting stocks to go up forever and 100% of the bears expecting stocks to go up forever. If memory serves, that has never happened. The stock market bullishness is off the charts and over the top. Traders and investors are in a euphoric ecstasy for stocks willing to buy any equity with a heartbeat. The Aroon's indicate rampant stock market complacency and fearlessness. The CPCE put/call ratio falls to multi-year lows indicating rampant stock market euphoria, complacency and fearlessness. Sell, Mortimer, Sell!

Last week had Black Monday potential as noted in the last SPX charts. The stock market was topped out and ready to Rock and Roll to the downside a month ago but was stick-saved by the Fed speak and happy inflation and jobs data. Well, that hype is built into the charts now and the SPX is topped out again in the 2-hour, daily and weekly time frames. The stock market is a piece of sh*t ready to receive a negative divergence smackdown. That would be cool to see a Black Monday, or Black Tuesday; you would live stock market history in real-time.

The charts are horrible. As price makes an all-time record high at 5822.12 and all-time closing high at 5815.03, all the chart indicators on all three charts show negative divergence; it is a top. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so 5780 opened the door to 5820, which occurs. It is critical for the bears to knock the stock market down from here forward since a sustained price in the 5800-5820 area will open the door to 6200. Many Wall Street analysts have adjusted targets higher to 6K and more as stocks refuse to go down.

The rising wedge patterns are textbook and forecasting a top. The SPX is above the moving average ribbons requiring a mean reversion lower (like July). The pink boxes for the ADX show that the strong trends higher in stocks in the daily and weekly time frames are over. Fini as they say in Fraunce. Stick a fork in it. It's cooked.

The upper bands are violated so the middle bands, that are also the 20 MA's, are downside targets. On the 2-hour, they are 5766 and 5699. On the daily, the downside targets as per the standard deviation bands are 5721 and 5622, and they are 5535 and 5235 on the weekly.

The standard deviation bands on the daily chart are the tightest since June so a sharp strong move is expected over the coming days and weeks. Tight bands do not predict direction but the assumption is clearly down due to the universal neggie d across three time periods. 

When Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sings, "the time has come," in Beds Are Burning, he did not mean it was time for an easing path to proceed, he meant it was time for stocks to collapse.

As usual, Keystone is sitting Alone on one side of the boat, strumming his guitar, singing an outlaw love song, the Story of My Life, while everyone buys stocks without a care in the world. They be stupid people. Everyone will come over to this side of the boat once the band begins to play when the neggie d kicks-in. Maybe a Black Monday? Black Tuesday? Bueller? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

ATTENTION: A salute to the US Navy on its birthday tomorrow (Sunday). Cher always knew how to entertain the sailors and make sure they knew what they were fighting for. If I Could Turn Back Time. Cher's son, Chaz, is playing guitar; we knew him as Chastity decades ago during the Sonny and Cher Variety Show.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 10/13/24, at 6:34 PM EST: S&P futures are down a handful of points. No biggie. Move along, move along. CNBC commentator Michael Santoli proclaims, "S&P 500 grinds higher to further record highs, finding little to fear in October." Yahoo Finance reporter Josh Schafer talks to Wall Street strategists and says they "believe the bull can keep running wild......the path higher appears to be clear, with earnings growth expected to keep accelerating and the economy on seemingly solid footing as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates." It sounds like rainbows and puppy dogs every day ahead. BMO's Brian Belski decrees that the SPX will tag 6100 by the end of the year (within 52 trading days; the SPX would need to rally 5.5 points every trading day, with no down days, from now into 2025). Kris Kristofferson croaked a couple of weeks ago on a Sunday. How appropriate considering that Sunday Morning Coming Down was one of the best songs he wrote, that Johnny adopted for his own and made famous. Kris got taken back to the something that he had lost along the way. There's something about a Sunday. You can smell that fried chicken.

Note Added Monday Morning, 10/14/24, at 5:15 AM EST: Happy Columbus Day. The stock market is open but the bond market is closed. S&P futures are up a handful of points. No biggie. Nothing to see here, move along, move along. China decides to go incrementally with the stimulus doing a little, and watching data, then doing a little more, watching data; communist jackasses. Former Fed Chairman Bernanke, the so-called 'student of the Great Depression', learned from his studies that the major mistake after the 1929 stock market crash was not stepping-in and providing stimulus big and fast. That is why Helicopter Ben was dropping piles of cash from the sky in 2009 to save the stock market and protect America's corrupt wealthy class perpetuating the crony capitalism system. It worked. It sinks the US into deeper debt and straddles your kids and grandkids with unmanageable debt but who cares? Live for today. Don't worry about tomorrow. China is making the same mistake the United States made after the 1929 crash that led into the Great Depression, and sick 1930's decade, and then WW II in the early 1940's. Markets were ecstatic last week on China stimulus thinking it was a no-brainer that the PBOC would fire a gargantuan money bazooka showering the entire mainland, as well as the world, with easy money as far as the eye can see, but the communists balk. As world economies struggled in the early 1930's, protectionism took hold and the countries, including the US, slit each other's throat, all riding the same recession/depression bus to Hell until Hitler rose to power in Nazi Germany and WW II started. Oil and copper retreat on the lackluster China stimulus. Invesco's Brian Levitt proclaims, "I think we are in a bull market." For now, all is groovy, 'it's all too beautiful', and it is time for another fun day at Itchykoo Park.

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/14/24, at 7:09 PM EST: What's going on? That is not a Black Monday; it is a mini melt-up Monday. Well, how about a Black Tuesday? Emperor Jensen waved the Blackwell chip in the air again proclaiming limitless demand. The chips sector jumps a couple percent taking stocks higher. Banks are buoyant ahead of GS, C and BAC yearnings in the morning. Traders expect the banks to blow-out earnings like last Friday, especially after the bar was lowered which is the standard fare for the Wall Street game, so investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks at the ask with both fists. The SPX gaps-up this morning and prints a new all-time high at 5871.41 and new all-time closing high at 5859.85. Stocks are on Top of the World. Nothing has changed in the charts; the neggie d remains in play. The RSI on the daily chart creeps higher over the last two weeks so it may try to force price to jog for two days (down tomorrow and then up on hump day for the potential top). VIX remains elevated near 20 at 19.70 so expect big intraday price moves and day to day moves. S&P futures are up +3 as the banks cook the books in the backroom ahead of earnings in the morning. Keybot the Quant remains long and is tracking copper as the most important metric currently impacting stock market direction. If copper futures drop about -1%, the stock market will likely be in trouble so keep a hairy eyeball on the red metal. Copper futures slip negative a few minutes ago.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 10/16/24, at 4:38 PM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The SPX retreats to end up where it started the week sitting at 5815. What the semi's giveth on Monday, they taketh away on Tuesday. ASML soiled the sheets. The bullish happy talk continues. Bears are as rare as hen's teeth. On Bloomberg, HSBC's Max Kettner remains a raging bull for US equities. On CNBC, Ritholtz Wealth's Josh Brown decrees that stocks are in a bull market with different superstars stepping-up each day. Bespoke's Bill Hickey proclaims that stocks will go up into year-end. A BAC survey reports that investors are the most bullish in 4 years and the overwhelming majority believe that a recession will not occur. BAC says the Fed's rate cut path and China stimulus create optimism that the stock market can only move higher. It is fun to watch. Wall Street analysts are tripping over each other to raise their SPX targets near or above 6K for this year. Stocks actually remain erratic and unstable. Stocks may float higher today into the peak of the full moon that occurs tomorrow morning at 7:26 AM EST. Yesterday's pull back may be the start of the multi-week slump ahead for stocks, if not, the SPX should peak-out any day forward due to the universal neggie d across the hourly, daily and weekly time frames. Git while the gittin' is good. Let it Drop.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 6:40 PM EST: The plot thickens. Buoyancy occurs in stocks under the light of the super moon. Are you ready to call the exact top? We can give it a shot and you can follow up tomorrow and Friday to see how things play out. The SPX charts remain neggie d across the 2-hour, daily and weekly time frames so a spankdown is on tap that leads into a multi-week pullback for equities--as everyone and his bro are triple-leveraged long expecting a huge rally into year-end. Bring up the SPX 2-hour chart. See how price is moving higher today to end the session at 5842 only 18 points shy of the 5860-5870 area that would qualify as a matching price high? Note that if price makes this gain tomorrow morning, it is extremely likely that all the chart indicators (RSI, MACD, histo, stochastics, money flow) will remain neggie d, hence, the top would be locked-in at the time the SPX printed the 5860-ish and higher; you can call the top. Simply watch the chart to make sure it plays out that way. The other outcome would be for stocks to simply begin dropping now and begin the multi-week down move. The 2-hour stockcharts.com charts print candlesticks at the open at 9:30 AM EST, then 10 AM, then 12 PM (munch time), then 2 PM. Rinse and repeat the next day. Thus, let's get cute and say the SPX will rise tomorrow morning (Thursday) and hit the 5860-5870 range within the first two candlesticks so the top in the US stock market will likely occur between 9:30 AM EST and lunch time (noon). The 2-hour chart will tell you. Then you will have a top call under your belt and you will understand the power of neggie d. The bull party continues and becomes more comical each day. Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel remains committed to SPX 6000 by year-end and his only worry is a contested US election in November. Truist's Keith Lerner decrees that even if hiccups occur in the stock market, the underlying trend will remain positive (up and away). He is still positive on tech stocks and sees no AI bubble. Lerner expects stocks to move higher with earnings moving higher. UBS strategist Jonathan Golub raises their SPX target to 5850 this year and 6400 for the end of next year. Barclays is at 6500 for next year. Pause for laughter. CFRA's Sam Stovall says earnings are expected to keep growing so that means blue skies and rainbows for stocks. He says stay with the winners such as NVDA and MRVL. CNBC commentators are sitting around a table one trying to out-bull the other; they all sound like bull-sh*tters. Tim Seymour proclaims that stocks will move higher into year-end. The Bible says the Lord found it difficult to find a righteous man probably just as difficult as finding a bear on Wall Street. Watch the SPX 2-hour chart; Thursday (tomorrow) should be the top for the stock market followed by many soggy weeks. The US presidential election is 11/5/24 that may add drama as the SPX should be slumping away as the votes are cast for either King Donnie, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, an adulterer selling Bibles, or, Cackling Kamala, a progressive interview-challenged wannabe communist. Go for it if you think voting for one criminal or the other is important.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/17/24, at 4:54 AM EST: Morning Has Broken on the US East Coast as Cat Stevens, now Yusuf, sings, and the S&P futures are up ..... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer ..... 18 points. If you are bearish the stock market, you want this to occur as explained above. The SPX will print a matching high and the chart indicators will all be out of gas and sloping lower on the 2-hour chart, negative divergence, neggie d, and the top will be in. If a bull, you want price to rally strongly higher today, say, 30, 40, or 50 SPX points or more which can extend the top into early next week (putting off the inevitable). Bears are happy with a rally of 20, even 30 SPX points after the opening bell, to lock-in the top with neggie d. Perhaps today will be a top in the US stock market that we will not see for many weeks, months, and perhaps years forward? It should be an interesting day ahead. S&P futures now up +21 points. The bulls are busy throwing darts at the stock pages to decide what tickers to buy today since everyone, including the doorman, Uber driver, shoeshine boy, and masseuse at the country club, believe that the stock market will go up forever going forward. Irving Fisher's ghost from 1929 says we are at a permanent plateau in the stock market and will only go up, and not down, from here. What do you say?

Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/17/24. at 7:19 PM EST: Robert Smith sings, "Thursday, I don't care about you, it's Friday I'm in love." The stock market top occurs at 9:30 AM EST with a new all-time record high at 5878.46, call it 5878. The top occurs as described above, before it happened. Watch for follow-through to the downside tomorrow, if so, the neggie d spankdown and multi-week slide in US stocks has just begun. The Keybot the Quant robot remains long but has been champing at the bit for 3 days to flip short but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Maybe tomorrow is the day when the bulls, at the peak of stock market ecstasy, and only six feet from the edge, will take One Last Breath. With all the talk of Black Monday and Black Tuesday, Keystone forgot all about Black Friday. You know, it is still October.

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Light Crude Oil Monthly Chart; Ominous Descending Triangle Pattern with Ominous 66.666 Baseline Support

Oil is a big topic of discussion these days. Earl, as they say in the Texas oilfields. Merle must protect his guitar pickin' fingers, so I'll Fix Your Flat Tire Merle, don't you get your sweet country-pickin' fingers all covered with earl.

Anyhoo, the thick red horizontal price support line at the ominous 66.666 is bigtime important spanning the last 4 years. It was a high in 2020 as the pandemic hit and slapped oil down to sub 10 intramonth. West Texas touches the important 66.666 line in the sand in 2021 and the peak in oil occurs at 115-124 during springtime 2022. Price retreats back to the 66.666 baseline support in 2023, then a bounce, then back down for another touch as this year started, then a bounce, and this month back down to 66.33 for another test of the critical baseline support and, another bounce now at 73 and change.

The ominous 66.666 is for all the marbles. Above fosters the idea of a stronger economy with higher demand for oil and inflation while a drop below 66.666 opens the door to Hades, disinflation and deflation, and a likely global recession/depression. Choose your poison.

The descending triangle pattern over the last couple years is ominous. With the top of the vertical side at 115-124 and baseline at 66-68, the downside target if the baseline fails is 47-58. That will get your attention. It would likely mean that China's recovery is not happening and since Europe is China's top trading partner, the countries across the pond will go down the chute, Germany is already in the dirty laundry recession, Japan and the US would follow. It all depends on 66.666.

This 73-78 range will continue to create a textbook descending triangle pattern for oil from which price would be expected to head lower for another test of 66.666 and, since time has run out for the pattern, a major bounce or die decision will have to be made.

The WTIC daily chart is receiving a neggie d spankdown from the 200-day MA at 77.21 but the MACD remains long and strong so price may want to come up again to the 77-ish price over the next day or few and that may top things out in the daily time frame. The weekly oil chart is uninspiring stumbling along sideways with the indicators showing a slight negative bias.

The big test of 66.666 is likely on tap for next week and a failure would tell you that the gloom and doom scenario is on tap for the many months, and perhaps year or three, ahead. Get your popcorn ready. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 10/14/24, at 6:37 AM EST: WTIC oil 73.80. Price ran above 76 last Thursday and Friday but did not make it back up to the 200-day MA at 77.22. The MACD on the daily chart remains long and strong hinting that price still wants to float higher perhaps for another back kiss of the 200, but allow the week to begin and for the new candlesticks to appear on the charts. Lack of details and numbers from China concerning stimulus for their sick economy creates sogginess in oil and copper.

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/14/24, at 7:48 PM EST: WTIC oil 71.64. Oil slips on a banana peel after Israel says the Iran oil fields may not be targeted in the pending attack. Crude is only 5 bucks from the critical and ominous 66.666 support where everyone's lives will change going forward.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/15/24, at 6:05 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. WTIC oil is at 69.79 sporting a 69-handle. Global oil traders are clenching their buttocks saying any pullback in oil is temporary. Analysts proclaim that oil will spike again once Israel starts firing missiles at Iran in response to the radical Islamic terrorist's (Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthi (Yemen), Iran) aggression against their homeland and the Western way of life. OPEC lowers its oil demand forecast for the third time this year.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:14 PM EST: WTIC oil 70.39. 

Note Added Sunday, 10/20/24: WTIC oil is at 68.69 only a couple bucks from the ominous and infamous 66.666 support. 

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 5755 late in the session. Bulls cannot verify the upside until they get lower volatility. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw since markets are very erratic and unstable.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, flips to the short side today at SPX 5709 as Fed Chairman Powell speaks. Bears need weaker banks and chips to verify the downside and create stock market carnage.

Keybot the Quant

Gold Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Price Extended; Rampant Euphoric Bullish Sentiment for Gold

The gold weekly chart was topped-out with the only caveat the Federal Reserve and what was planned for rate cuts. Chairman Powell fires a money bazooka, because the investment banks will reward him when he leaves office, promising 50-bip cuts for as far as the eye can see. The dollar drops and stocks and gold pop. America's wealthy class celebrate Powell and the era of easy money, the New Gilded Age, that makes the rich super rich and the poor poorer.

The Powell orgy move needed a couple weeks to play out and gold is at 2668 an all-time high and tagged 2709 moving above 2.7K. The folks that bot gold for $250 when the century changed over are happy campers; a quick couple decades go by and gold is a 10-bagger. Gold is topping-out again as the happy Fed news is priced-in. Isn't the crony faux capitalism sickening?

The red rising wedge is bearish. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show negative divergence across all indicators except the MACD line. There is always one of them in the crowd. The MACD is only a hair above the prior high but this may be enough to jog price down-up so the MACD has time to go neggie d, so the top for gold, on the weekly basis, is any time between now and 1 to 2 weeks. The chart will tell you when the MACD goes neggie d. The first print for the week tomorrow morning may show the MACD in retreat which would lock the high in right now.

Note how the volume slips away over the last few months. The joyous new lifetime highs in gold come with lackluster volume that generally does not surpass the big volume weeks for this year. The three blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money handing off gold to the dumb money. Humorously, the traders and investors that held onto gold through the data and Fed speak were rewarded.

The ADX is in the stratosphere continuing to show that the move higher in gold on the weekly basis is a strong trend higher. The ADX is a lagging indicator so it does not provide contrarian information to the bear case above. If the MACD line needs another week or so to line up with neggie d and call the exact top, the ADX will likely be coming off the top as well. Price is extended above the moving averages needing a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon is one for the record books. Every market participant is long gold or 100% bullish gold expecting the yellow metal to continue higher forever. The Aroon green line shows that 100% of the gold bulls expect gold to rally forever. Wheeee. Whoopie! The Aroon red line shows that 100% of the gold bears expect gold to rally forever. Wheeee. What? Say what? Yes, it is off-the-chart euphoric bullishness, complete complacency and fearlessness, and a belief that gold will never drop again. Come on folks, what do you think is going to happen? Keystone is used to sitting alone on one side of the boat but eventually everyone comes over to join him.

Gold is expected to drop now, or bump along sideways-ish for a week or so and then begin dropping, and fall into a multi-week decline. The US dollar daily chart is set to receive a positive divergence rally so that would send gold lower. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 2452, and rising, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 2251.

Keystone is not playing gold derivatives right now, or the miners, either long or short, but obviously the path forward is to short the rallies in gold. Looking at the GLD weekly chart, it is the same as above with the middle band downside target at 225 and rising and the lower band down at 207. Whooaaa, doggie, well, look at that, the MACD is flat, maybe a tiny hair below the prior high on the GLD weekly chart (neggie d) which tells you that the top is in now for GLD on the weekly basis. The GLD daily chart is topped-out and agreeable to a pullback. Ditto the GLD 2-hour chart, it topped-out with neggie d on Friday morning. It looks like it is all systems go for the dollar to pop, gold to drop, and stocks to drop.

The Gold on the Ceiling will soon be on the floor in a multi-week decline. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:56 PM  EST: Gold 2659. GLD 243.06.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:41 PM EST: Gold 2690. GLD 245.61. The dock workers at US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel so traders seek safety and flock to gold.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: Gold 2668. Gold staggers flat through the week as the Fed speak and inflation data send the yellow metal to and fro. Gold popped to 2709 on 9/26/24 and is moving through a sideways channel at 2650-2700 for the last 2-1/2 weeks. GLD 245.00. The gold ETF is the same-o story as gold itself flat on the week. GLD popped to 247.37 on 9/26/24 and is moving through a sideways channel at 243-246 for the last 2-1/2 weeks. Gold bulls win big above 2700-2710 and GLD above 246, while gold bears win big below 2650 and GLD below 243. The tension mounts as the Solid Gold Dancers take the stage with the beautiful, classy, intelligent and great performer Irene Cara, singing What a Feeling.

Note Added Wednesday, 10/9/24: Gold 2626. GLD 240.94.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:15 PM EST: Gold 2691. GLD 247.15. New record high at 248.09. The neggie d remains on the daily and weekly charts sans the MACD on the weekly so just give that a week or two to top out. Ditto gold.

Note Added Sunday, 10/20/24: Gold bulls continue waving the rally banner. Gold prints a euphoric all-time record high at 2730. In a troubled world, gold is in high demand. The central banks are probably buying up the yellow metal as well. Gold bugs deserve their day in the sun. The positive news bites and Fed action send gold to the stratosphere. All the indicators are topped-out with neggie d on the high except the MACD now squeezing out a higher high, thus, the top on the weekly basis needs a jog move down one week then up the next week for the top. GLD jumps to 251.27 with the same scenario. Monthly charts, however, for both point to more higher highs on the monthly basis. Gold will top out in the days ahead and then several weeks of choppiness and a downward bias will follow but into year end and the first of the year gold should be making more new record highs. If gold tags 2800, it opens the door to 3200 as per Keystone's 80/20 Rule, but the path there may be through the 2300-2500 area first.

AAPL Apple Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence; Tweezer Top; Price Extended

Apple is cooked. Like the old saying about lemons and making lemonade, at least the rotten apple can be made into a pie. CEO Tim Cook must be cooking the books. AAPL is the darling of the US stock market for the last couple decades. It can do no wrong like the attractive sibling. Well, all good things come to an end, and all pretty faces do not last forever. Apple is about to turn into an ugly hag.

Focusing in on the last couple weeks, price makes a few matching highs so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential neggie d. The blue circle shows a Tweezer Top in play that, as the name implies, signals a top (conversely, a Tweezer Bottom signals a bottom). The chart indicators are clearly in universal negative divergence over the last month as price prints consistent matching or higher numbers. It's a top.

The dark maroon line shows prices at relatively matching highs (the first peak is higher because of only a 2-day orgy spike in price that came right back down) and again, all the indicators are in neggie d over that 3-month time frame. As price prints a higher high compared to a year ago, same-o, same-o, with neggie d. Same-o reminds Keystone of a new tune from J D, no, not Vance the 'Childless Cat Lady', J D McPherson, a far cooler cat. Sunshine Getaway. The band will be at The Bowery in a few days.

Anyhoo, AAPL is cooked. It appears its new iPhone is not receiving the love it expected. The AI hype continues but comically, each interview of an Artificial Intelligence guru results in the tech geek unable to give a down to earth example of a great improvement AI offered. Instead, the AI guru will proclaim that AI is already in use and helping people. AI may be apple pie in the sky. Many of the people cheering AI are not involved in its development.

The pink boxes for the ADX show that a strong trend higher was in place last summer but that petered out in September as AAPL was falling in price. The big rally this year developed into a strong trend higher in July but is on the brink of petering out. When the ADX drops below 26-29, the strong trend higher for Apple on the weekly basis will be over (and the ADX is a lagging indicator).

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon and needs a mean reversion lower. The Aroon is setting up for a potential negative cross. Interestingly, the red negative crosses occur more towards when the down move is done. All the parameters above are negative so the expectation is for a rollover in Apple and for it to begin a multi-week down move.

The three orange dots show the previous triple top that now does not exist. You can scroll back for that chart and discussion. if you take a purple crayon and draw a thick line of support across that prior triple-top that was nullified, Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes, the 195-ish area is a good downside target.

Keystone is not holding AAPL long or short now but the obvious play going forward is to short the rallies. If you made a lot of money in Apple, take the dough and ride off into the sunset. Warren Buffet continues ditching Bank of America shares; do you think he will be ditching Sapple?

Let's take a look at the shorter-term charts to see if a top can be timed. On the daily chart, there is a triple-top where the indicators are weaker as time goes on. The trend is directionless sideways and the chart does not tell a lot for timing. Ditto the 2-hour chart so the approach of simply shorting the rallies going forward would be the play. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:57 PM  EST: AAPL 233.00.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:46 PM EST: Apple takes the pipe collapsing -2.9% to 226.21.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: AAPL 226.80. Sapple stumbles through the sideways channel at 215-233 for the last 3 months. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. Apple bulls win big above 233 while apple bears win big below 215. I'm a Loser from the Apple Studios.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/16/24, at 7:24 PM EST: AAPL 231.78. New record high at 237.49. She is cooked on the daily and weekly charts with neggie d; get out while you can. Apple monthly chart is also neggie d so you are now witnessing the highest prices in AAPL that will remain for perhaps many months, probably a year or two, even more.

UST2Y 2-Year Yield and UST10Y 10-Year Yield Daily Charts; Falling Wedges; Positive Divergence

Here are the 2-year and 10-year yield charts on the daily basis displaying more wild stuff. It's a Wild, Wild Life. Over the last week, starting at 9/16/24 thru 9/18/24, the 2-year yield is moving lower and the 10-year yield is moving higher. The yield curve (2-10 spread) dis-inverts over the last week and normalizes to 23 bips today.

Tonight, in the late afternoon, the 2-year yield is 3.55% (chart is 3.56%) and 10-year yield is 3.78% (chart is 3.79%) for a normalized 2-10 spread (yield curve) of 23 bips.

The 2-day FOMC meeting started on 9/17/24 and the rate decision, where Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High, and cut by a jumbo 50-bips was 9/18/24. The crowd goes wild. Stocks jump to the moon rewarding America's wealthy class that own the stock market.

The 2-year yield drops as would be expected since the Fed is now on an easing path. The conjecture forward is if each meeting will be a 25-bip or 50-bip cut from here. The Fed meets two days after the November 5th presidential election when the modern-day Herbert Hoover will be selected. The 10-year yield moves higher. Thus, the short end notes are bot sending yield lower and the longer duration notes and bonds are sold sending yields higher. Perhaps traders and investors are concerned about the government debt and deficits after all?

The two charts are interesting because the 2's are about to follow the 10's up in yield. Say what? Sonny, the Fed is on an easing path going forward; the 2-year yield has nowhere to go but down. What are you smoking? The charts do not lie and the 2-year yield is on the launch pad ready to run higher not lower on the daily basis.

On the UST10Y daily chart, the 10's, they drop into the blue falling wedge a bullish pattern (upside expected). It is tricky discussing note and bond charts versus stock charts since price up means yields down and visa versa for Treasuries. Keystone is not using red and green lines instead blue lines are used to not confuse the subject. The charts show yield so as the chart drops lower and lower, like the last few months, that means both the 2's and 10's were being bot by the fistfuls. Again, that makes sense since everyone was expecting the Fed to cut and trying to front run the decision looking for lower yields. So when the yield charts are moving down that is notes and bonds being bot and when the yield charts move higher that is notes and bonds selling off.

There was a tight band squeeze as September starts (purple arrows) which sends yields lower. Tight bands tell you a big move is at hand but do not predict direction; it was obviously down. You can clearly see the positive divergence across all chart indicators (blue lines) so the bottom was in for the 10-year yield and voila, it receives the possie d rocket launch off the bottom. The indicators remain long and strong so higher yields are expected going forward on the daily basis.

The upper band is in play at 3.89%. Staying with the 10-year, the ADX pink boxes show that the long drop in yields was only a strong trend lower for August and a little bit of time this month. The drop in 10-year yield is no longer a strong trend lower.

Note the Aroon on the 10-year yield when it was at the bottom. The red line was at maximum 100% and green line at 0% minimum. This says that 100% of the bond bulls expect yields to drop forever and never go up again. It also says that the bond bears, that would like to see rising yields, are 100% convinced that yields will drop forever and never go up again. That's funny and the sign of a turn which occurs. The Aroon is a contrarian indicator. Obviously, if 100% of traders in Chicago and New York expect yields to go up forever, that ain't gonna happen. This fractal should play out the same for the 2-year yield and you know what will happen ahead of time.

On the 2-year yield chart, UST2Y, it is the same-o story only it will lag the 10-year yield move higher. Yield continues lower but all the chart indicators are sloping higher, positive divergence. The downside in yield is done in the daily time frame and the 2-year yield is loaded-up with rocket fuel and on the launch pad. Someone needs to light the fuse and the 2-year yield will begin running higher like the 10's.

It sounds odd since the Fed is now in a cutting cycle but it is what it is. The charts price-in everything known up to the minute so whatever is going on says the 2-year yield will move higher in the days ahead not lower. The Aroon for the 2-year is set up as described for the 10-year yield so that fractal should repeat for the 2's.

The ADX for the 2-year yield chart says the down move in yield is a strong trend since July and continues. Note, however, that as yield slipped lower over the last couple weeks, the ADX has come off the top, so the strong trend lower in yield may have peaked two weeks ago. The ADX is a lagging indicator so as the yield pops due to the possie d, and runs higher, the ADX line will drop out of the pink box at that 26 to 30 level verifying that the strong trend lower in 2-year yields is officially toast probably in October.

Chairman Powell said inflation continues lower which are haunting words that echo in Keystone's mind; mainly because it is hollow in there. Although Powell's fancy data and metrics may verify his opinion and direction, inflation is actually moving sideways. It is in a neutral area between inflation and disinflation bumping along sideways. What does it mean if Powell did the 50-bip cut, basing it partially on the idea that inflation was continuing lower, when in actuality, inflation may be flatlining? Keystone does not know, what are you asking him for? He's just a down and dirty stock trader. Ask a bond guru.

Thus, going forward, the 2-year yield will begin popping anytime forward and move higher (notes sold off sending yields higher) and the 10-year yield will continue higher both on the daily basis. Are you ready for this to happen when the universal consensus has to be for the 2-year yield to drop going forward, not pop?

Everybody and his brother, and the Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman, say the 2-year yield is going to drop now that we are in an easing cycle. They asked Keystone why he has the nerve to make the call that the 2-year yield will move higher? He replies, "Possie d, possie d." Keystone is used to sitting by himself on the one side of the boat while the party is on the other side a Million Miles Away. Eventually they come over to Keystone's side.

Watch for the move higher in 2-year yields on the daily basis which will surprise everyone. Keystone is not playing any Treasury tickers or derivatives currently long or short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:56 AM EST: The US yields are; 2-year 3.56%, 5-year 3.53%, 10-year 3.78% and 30-year 4.13%. The yield curve (2-10 spread) is 22 bips.

Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 9/26/24, at 5:00 PM EST: The 2-year yield is 3.63% and 10-year yield is 3.80% for a 2-10 spread at 17 bips. The 2-year is receiving the possie d rocket launch thrusting higher from 3.54% to 3.64% The 20-day MA is 3.67% very close so yield will want to kiss and test this resistance.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The 2-year yield finishes the week dropping to 3.57% and 10-year yield is 3.75% for a 2-10 spread at 18 bips. The Inflation and sentiment data and more Fed speak sends the rates to and fro. The 10-year likely wants to back kiss the 20-day MA at 3.73% to make sure its upward path is verified. The 2-year pops during the week exactly testing the 20-day MA resistance at 3.65% and is promptly spanked down on its first try. The 2-hour yield chart remains in possie d and the yield is on the launch pad ready to jump higher. Going up through the 20 at 3.63%-3.65% will be a big deal and signal more upside ahead for the 2-year yield. Everybody and his brother expects the 2-year yield to drop since the Fed's easing path is ongoing and there was a move to another 50-bip cut late last week for the FOMC meeting two days after the 11/5/24 election, so bloop, the 2-year yield retreats again. The US dollar is ready to launch higher in the daily time frame along with the 2-year yield. Traders are asking what is Keystone smoking? 

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:58 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.65%. 10-year yield 3.79%. 2-10 spread 14 bips.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:43 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.62%. 10-year yield 3.74%. 2-10 spread 12 bips. The US dock workers go on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/2/24, at 3:43 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.64%. 10-year yield 3.79%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/3/24, at 4:30 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.65%. 10-year yield 3.80%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. The 2-year yield continues nibbling at the 20-day MA overhead resistance at 3.66%. The high yesterday was 3.666%. The possie d strength should push her up through.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/3/24, at 5:48 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.66%. 10-year yield 3.81%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. The 2-year yield tests the 20-day MA overhead resistance at 3.66% so it is time to bounce or die.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/3/24, at 9:25 AM EST: Bounce. 2-year yield 3.67%. 10-year yield 3.82%. 2-10 spread 15 bips. The 2-year yield pokes above the 20-day MA at 3.66%.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 3:20 AM EST: Bounce. 2-year yield 3.70%. 10-year yield 3.84%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. The 20-day MA at 3.66% becomes support.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 6:07 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.71%. 10-year yield 3.85%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. Let's take a look at how the possie d rocket launch is going. On the $UST2Y daily chart, the chart indicators are long and strong (sloping upwards) forecasting more new highs in the 2-year yield going forward in the daily time frame. The RSI and stochastics cross above 50% into bull territory for the yield (do not get confused; the chart is yield so when yield moves up notes and bonds are getting sold off with prices dropping). The 50-day MA resistance is at 3.87% and dropping. There is solid yield resistance at 3.88% from the action in August. The expectation is for the 2-year yield to move up into the 3.85%-3.90% area over the coming days or couple weeks. Of course, the pending Jobs Report, that drops in a couple hours, inflation data and Fed speak will move rates to and fro. Analysts are caught flat-footed since everybody and his bro, and the chef and nanny, were 100% convinced that the yield would drop. All they had to do was look at the charts.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 7:11 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.72%. 10-year yield 3.86%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. 

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 8:13 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.73%. 10-year yield 3.87%. 2-10 spread 14 bips. The US Monthly Jobs Report is imminent.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 8:31 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.88%. 10-year yield 3.97%. 2-10 spread 9 bips. Holy smokes. Jobs are a 254K blowout to the upside with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The 2-year tags the 50-day MA resistance at 3.87% in a heartbeat; no need to wait a couple days or couple weeks, it occurs in a couple hours.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/4/24, at 8:36 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.87%. 10-year yield 3.95%. 2-10 spread 8 bips. Traders think the 50-bip cut in November is off the table. Stocks rally despite the lower chance of a November jumbo 50-bip cut. Wall Street is drinking the 'soft landing' tea kicking off a Friday stock market orgy. The 2-year yield has ran about 30-bips higher this week with the 10-year up about 20-bips. Inflation was kicked out the back door but it never left. Now inflation is in the bushes next to the house peeking through the window trying to climb back in.

Note Added Friday, 10/4/24, at 12:55 PM EST: 2-year yield 3.91%. 10-year yield 3.97%. 2-10 spread 6 bips. The 10's are bumping up against 4%. The pop in the 2-year yield is massive; now you know why Keystone calls the positive divergence set-up the 'possie d rocket launch'. Calling tops and bottoms is standard fare for a speculator.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 4:40 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.98%. 10-year yield 4.00%. 2-10 spread 2 bips. The 10-year is above 4% for first time in a couple months.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 5:08 AM EST: 2-year yield 3.99%. 10-year yield 4.01%. 2-10 spread 2 bips. Now you know how to call tops and bottoms in the markets using divergences. The bottom, or top, is not in until ALL the chart indicators (RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow) diverge away from price, or in the case above, yield, in that time frame you are trading.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 6:50 AM EST: 2-year yield 4.01%. 10-year yield 4.01%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is zero, ready to invert again. Oy vey. The circus continues. The bond market is slapped silly with Orion's Belt.

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 7:06 AM EST: There it is. 2-year yield 4.02%. 10-year yield 4.01%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is -1 bip, and inverted again.  What, Me Worry?

Note Added Monday, 10/7/24, at 6:53 PM EST: If you blinked when the yield curve inverted this morning, you missed it. The 2-10 spread quickly normalized again and spends the day 2 or 3 bips above inversion. 2-year yield 4.00%. 10-year yield 4.03%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is 3 bips. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/10/24, at 7:00 AM EST: 2-year yield 4.03%. 10-year yield 4.08%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 5 bips and no longer inverted. Now you see, the power of possie d.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Hanging Man; SPX Prints All-Time High at 5741 on 9/25/24

There you go. The charts have priced-in the Federal Reserve jumbo rate cut of 50 bips. The SPX is topped-out on the 2-hour chart so the remainder of the week should be interesting.

The SPX, the S&P 500 index, the United States stock market, prints a new all-time closing high today at 5732.93 and new all-time intraday high, the highest number ever in history, at 5735.32. The bulls are running.

The SPX daily and weekly charts remain negatively diverged (see previous charts) so the idea was to wait until the 2-hour chart sets up so the top can be called. Honey, I'm home. In late August, you can see the prior top in the 2-hour time frame receiving the neggie d spankdown. Price drops as September begins but the intraday point low, making a matching low, came with the chart indicators positively diverged (green lines). Voila, up she goes with a possie d rocket launch.

So lots of drama occurs this month with inflation data and Fed speak floating the stock market ever higher. The red lines display the neggie d in play again as price makes the new all-time record highs. All the indicators are neggie d so the top is in and the 2-hour should kick-in the downside now which will likely kick-in the downside on the daily and weekly charts.

The blue rising wedge is bearish. The stochatics are overbot, and the RSI, almost, agreeable to a pullback. Take a look at the SPX daily chart and you see a hanging man candlestick print today so a trend change may occur right now. Hang Man! Hang Man! Gallows Pole.

The Keybot the Quant robot remains long with VIX one of the only negative metrics remaining which makes no sense as the SPX prints new all-time highs. It is unbelievable and bazaar. How can the stock market print new all-time highs and the VIX not dropping like a rock?

The VIX bull/bear line in the sand, as per the Keybot the Quant algorithm, is 15.24 and price is at 15.39, in the bear camp, only 15 pennies away from the bull camp. If VIX drops below 15.24, it verifies that the stock market rally is real and has legs higher. The analysts that have EOY target numbers up at 6.0K and even 6.1K will be throwing confetti. If, however, the VIX remains above 15.24, and then begins moving higher again, the stock market is toast, and the neggie d spankdown should begin the pain and misery ahead.

The chart above is teetering on the edge. One Last Breath. Blow on it, like a feather, and it should begin falling. The only thing that can stop it is more happy talk from the Fed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 9:54 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5740.13, lucky 13, and now sits at 5735. The bulls throw confetti as they drink Fed wine and buy stocks with both fists. The 2-hour says she's topped-out. The neggie d slapdown should begin any time today.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:12 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5741.03 five minutes ago and now sits at 5739. The bulls throw a big party. Wheee! Whoopie! Bulls are drunk as skunks throwing darts at the stock pages to pick tickers to play long. Irving Fisher's ghost appears and announces that the stock market is now at a permanently high plateau and will never drop from here.

Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:26 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. Who put that banana peel there? SPX 5732.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:34 AM EST: The battle yesterday was obviously at the VIX 15.24 line in the sand as outlined above. The bulls jammed it lower into munch time testing VIX 15.24 that is called out by the Keybot the Quant robot, but the VIX bounces maintaining stock market sogginess. The SPX ends the session at 5722. This morning, out of the gate, the VIX drops to 15.00 in early trading, so the bulls are throwing confetti and S&P futures are up nearly 50 points. Micron reports happy earnings so everyone and his bro are buying chip stocks with both fists sending global stock indexes higher. China also announces fiscal stimulus realizing it will have to bail-out the troubled real estate sector just like the Western nations must do when their corrupt financial systems become overextended. Human greed knows no bounds and is comfortable in any system be it communism, crony capitalism, socialism, Marxism, Naziism, dictatorships, etc...; it's all the same. The expectation of central banker easy money (PBOC) sends global stocks higher. Simply watch VIX 15.24 today, tomorrow and early next week and you will likely know how the last three months of the year will play out. The SPX 6K end-of-year targets need the VIX to continue lower to 14, 13 and 12, maybe 11, and the stock market party will be in full swing. If VIX moves back above 15.24, there will be nothing but a sick and soggy path forward for stocks to end the year. The S&P futures, if they hold, should bring the SPX cash price up to test the all-time high yesterday at 5741.03. As the SPX prints this matching price high or moves above, if it does, simply check the charts to see if the neggie d remains in play. It should, if not, it will reset again after this latest stick-save hype dissipates.

Note Added Thursday, 9/26/24, at 8:10 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 5767.37 and new all-time closing high at 5745.37. The 2-hour chart above has not changed and remains in neggie d so the top is in and stocks are expected to fall. The fight around VIX 15.25 continues and is the rudder steering the stock market ship. Inflation and sentiment data, and comments from Fed Governor Bowman, who was the lone dissenter of the rate cut (she wanted 25 bips instead of 50 bips), are on tap tomorrow.

Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The all-time highs from Thursday hold. It is comical to be at the all-time highs in the stock market after 15 years of obscene Federal Reserve money-printing starting with Helicopter Ben Bernanke. What a pile of sh*t it all is. Can't Believe We're Here. Crony capitalism is reaching its tragic denouement like every other corrupt government and country has over the last 5,000 years. Anyhoo, let's see how the charts are progressing. If you bring up the 2-hour, you can see the top, and neggie d for the indicators, so she was starting to roll over when the week ended. Hey, maybe a Black Monday will occur? That would be fun. So the 2-hour is cooked; how about the SPX daily chart? Negative divergence remains there as well as the new highs printed. The MACD line tries to create a couple more days of strength but is neggie d over the last couple months so do not put much credence in it. The daily chart wants to retreat so the near term does not look good. The new moon peaks on Wednesday at 2:49 PM EST and stocks are typically bearish moving through the new moon each month. On the weekly chart, neggie d remains as well. Who knows what is holding up the stock market? Blow on it and it will collapse. Happy data indicates that the 50-bip cut is more likely two days after the November election so stocks rally higher on the promises of more Fed easy money for as far as the eye can see. More crony capitalism puke. Maybe we do get a Black Monday. Put/call ratios are low verifying the off-the-charts bullish euphoria, fearlessness and rampant complacency with traders and investors buying any stock with a heartbeat with no fear that prices will ever go down again. The ghost of Irving Fisher rises above the stock exchange whispering in a spooky Halloween voice that stocks are at a permanently high plateau. The charts want the stock market to drop but the chips hype and falling inflation euphoria is maintaining stock price buoyancy. The Keybot the Quant robot remains long but is champing at the bit to go short and likely needs the SPX to drop below 5727 to flip short. The dollar daily chart wants to rally so it would make sense that stocks will drop as the dollar regains its footing and rallies higher. Keep watching the VIX 15.26 bull/bear line in the sand as identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Bulls win big below VIX 15.26 while bears will create market carnage the longer the VIX stays above 15.26 especially if it moves sharply higher and over 20.

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:59 PM  EST: SPX prints a new all-time closing high at 5762.48 but the all-time intraday high from last Thursday holds at 5767.37. SPX drops to 5703 today and then rebounds strong after the Powell speech to the new high. Comically, Powell walks back a 50-bip cut for November saying everything is on the table but it does not matter; stocks rally any way. The upside party is in full swing. Traders are drunk as skunks buying any stock with a heartbeat. Keybot the Quant flipped short today at SPX 5709. Volatility and commodities are creating negativity and banks and chips are creating positivity. One of these four will flinch.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:39 PM EST: Instead of a Black Monday, it is a mini-Black Tuesday. The SPX falls to 5681 closing at 5709. The dock workers at US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.

Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: SPX 5751.07. The SPX prints another hangman candlestick. Hangman! Hangman!

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/7/24, at 7:01 PM EST: A mini-Black Monday was on tap today. The SPX collapses 55 points to 5696. The 20-day MA support is 5677.