Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Article 85 Published 8/9/22; US Wave 7 Petering Out--Finally; US Reports 94 Million Total COVID-19 Infections and 1.059 Million Deaths; World Reports 590 Million COVID-19 Cases and 6.44 Million Deaths; Global COVID-19 Hotspots Include Japan, South Korea, US, Russia, Eastern Europe and Western Asia; 50% of the World’s New COVID-19 Cases are in Japan, South Korea and United States

By K E Stone (Keystone)

US wave 7 is on the ropes. It’s about time. Chariot’s A Comin’Good News, as the ole Negro spiritual proclaims. The lingering, stubborn, sideways US wave 7 maintains a downward path from the peak top at 152K daily new cases on 7/21/22 almost 3 weeks in the rearview mirror. Truly good news.

The US wave 7 daily new cases chart is shown above and it has been a drama for the last 3-1/2 months. Wave 7 is a flat top unlike the other 6 pandemic waves that were the characteristic inverted V pattern with a defined peak. Wave 7 displays the sideways topping profile because of the many omicron subvariants at play one gaining dominance over another extending the wave in a sick game of covid leapfrog.

Wave 7 starts as a BA2 Omicron Subvariant little sister wave in the northeastern states with New York and New Jersey taking the lead (BA2 dominant wave). BA2 is handled without too much trouble or effort but as the infection wave expands inland, it morphs into a BA4 and BA5 dominant wave and then a BA5 dominant wave.

Many states in the West, Midwest and South, show wave 7 as a single wave moving higher and beginning to retreat. These waves are already BA5 dominant. Interestingly, the contagious BA4 and BA5 bugs work backwards to take another bite of the Big Apple and other northeastern states since their initial waves were BA2 dominant (7a). This behavior creates a double-hump for wave 7 for states such as New York and New Jersey with the BA5 dominant wave (7b) flexing its covid muscles.

This double-hump pattern, 7a and 7b, is also reflected in the overall US daily new cases chart although to a lesser extent than the individual states with the double-hump such as New York and New Jersey. A more subtle double-hump pattern appears in the US wave 7 close-up chart above since it is mixing together the double-humps and the single waves.

The chart shows the BA2 subvariant starting wave 7. Then the BA4 and BA5 bugs stretch their muscles becoming the dominant pathogen. The holidays create subtle bumps in cases but none can be called superspreader events (superspreader events may be in the pandemic past since populations are either vaccinated, or had COVID-19, or both).

BA 275 is sneaking around in the bushes during wave 7. BA46 is another bug trying to prove it is bigger and badder than BA5 but so far that is not the case. Actually, everything is Feelin’ Groovy.

The US daily new cases chart is shown above. Wave 7 is petering out but the cases need to keep dropping without any additional surprises from BA5 or BA46. The Worldometer data isnow delayed by 2 days for an unknown reason so the US state data has a 2-day lag instead of 1 day; not good.

The case data needs tabulated at a much faster rate for any future pandemic; the CDC and others should focus on this effort because data that is 2 days old is bad enough but numbers that are several days old, or a week old or more, like the CDC’s data, is inexcusable.

The US reports 42K cases for Sunday, 92K on Saturday and 110K on Friday. The peak for wave 7 is 152K cases on 7/21/22. The following week’s peak is 140K cases on 7/28/22. Last week’s peak is 127K cases on 8/3/22. It’s good stuff verifying the downward trend for wave 7 as long as no other subvariants are sneaking around in the bushes trying to get in the back door. The 7-day MA is at 83K cases and expected to continue lower.

The US active cases chart is shown above and that tiny hook lower at the end of the chart is a happy sight. Active cases peak at 4 million over the last week and now slip just under 3.8 million. The active cases need to drop and form the coveted bell shape to prove that wave 7 is being defeated. It looks like a done deal but never count your chickens before they hatch. There should be more substantive drops in daily new and active cases during the week ahead.

The US daily new deaths chart is shown above. It makes your blood boil that the United States can be so incompetent to allow the COVID-19 deaths to remain at 300 to 400 souls per day for nearly 4 months running. It is shameful. Sickening. Biden is an incompetent manager just like Trump.

Whitehouse COVID-19 coordinator Dr Jha said 2 weeks ago that 40K courses of Paxlovid were distributed during the prior week. There are 2 more weeks in the past so were 40K or more courses of Paxlovid distributed then also. How about last week? How about now? The success or failure of Biden’s distribution of Paxlovid can be linked to US deaths.

The 7-day MA trend line for US deaths shows a slight downward bias now but it is nothing to hang your hat on. If we are getting one-month beyond when the major distribution of Paxlovid occurred as reported by Dr Jha, but there is no change in the death rate, something stinks and the smell would be coming from the Whitehouse.

The death rate needs to go sub 300 bodies per day pronto and establish a defined drop going forward, otherwise, Sleepy Joe and Dr Jha would have failed at saving American lives with Paxlovid.

The individual US states display daily new cases charts that are rolling over to the downside; great news. Georgia continues struggling with elevated cases but the data stopped 6 days ago.

Over the last year, there is a trend with some countries and some US states, that when the daily cases start looking ugly and attention is drawn to the outbreak, the data stops. Then, a couple weeks later, when the cases are rolling over the data magically reappears again. Politicians and institutional leaders do not like to look bad.

Indiana was struggling but it may be turning the corner with daily cases subsiding. Kentucky is also struggling due to the flooding disaster with cases remaining elevated. Maskless President Biden and First Lady Jill viewed the flooding and met with Kentuckians.

On the world stage, Japan is a China Virus disaster. Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA for daily new cases is at 214K cases per day. 1 million Japanese are infected with covid every 4 days. Japan’s population is 125 million. Thus, about 1% of the Japanese population is contracting COVID-19 every 4 days. That is insane.

When everyone is protected like babies and there is very little natural immunity in a population, the virus goes on a feeding frenzy attacking the endless supply of juicy virgin hosts. Japan’s COVID-19 deaths continue higher averaging 154 souls per day teasing record levels.

South Korea’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA is at 104K daily new cases per day heading higher. South Korea was the gold standard on how to handle the pandemic in 2020 but the country is now in shambles at the hand of omicron.

Like Japan, the population was shielded for 2 years so there is very little natural immunity at play. BA5 is dancing along the streets of Seoul making people sick with covid and claiming some souls. South Korea’s death rate increases to 32 bodies per day heading higher. US House Speaker Pelosi and her entourage were just in Japan and South Korea so if they test positive it will show up later in the week or on the weekend.

Russia’s daily new cases chart is shown above. A new wave has started with cases pushing towards 20K cases per day. It will be interesting to see how much the wave expands and if it has any impact on ending dirtbag Dictator Putin’s heinous war against Ukraine.

Tragically, 80K Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the Ukraine War now 5-1/2 months along. The 80K includes about 20 to 30K that were killed. That leaves about 50K or more troops wounded (out of action). Russia has lost one-half the fighting force that was assembled at the Ukraine border in January and February.

Wil the Ruskies revolt against Putin? Probably not since only about one-quarter of the Russian population actually knows what is going on. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers need healthcare for the rest of their lives. Add this caseload to the new pandemic wave that is underway. Can Russia’s hospital system handle this massive caseload ahead?

The Russian people will come to realize that Putin is a piece of filth that took their kid’s lives. Vlad the Impaler also took their arms, and legs, and eyes. Perhaps the contagious BA5 bug will find its way to Moscow and one of Vlad’s palaces? BA5 would love Putin’s sick immunocompromised body.

France’s daily new cases chart is shown above. It has been a wild ride this year for France with the major BA1 wave, the BA2 wave that was defeated in April, and then the BA5 wave raised its ugly face; a trifecta of misery. France, Germany and Italy are all in good shape. The French are back to enjoying their wine, baguette and cigarettes at the local café.

The BA2 and BA5 humps are much more defined on France’s daily new cases chart as compared to the United States. Perhaps the US has a stronger natural immunity level at play than central and western Europe? The US follows Europe’s lead so the demise of the infection waves in France, Germany and Italy portend good things for the US going forward.

The Philippines daily new cases chart is shown above. New infection waves are underway for Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia but fortunately, the numbers remain in check and are not getting out of hand as yet. The Philippines is averaging 4K cases per day and rising. Indonesia and Malaysia hint that the daily cases may be starting to level off. Pelosi was in Malaysia last week hitting all the covid hotspots.

Chile’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Cases are rising in recent days and the suspected culprit is BA5. The 7-day MA is at 9.5K cases per day and rising. Argentina and Chile, in southern South America, had begun their infection waves before the other countries on the continent and recovered first, however, like the northeastern states in the US, the BA5 backwash occurs creating another wave bump in daily cases.

Argentina is not experiencing the double-hump as yet and this may be a blip for Chile with cases falling away again in short order. Much of South America is on the mend and likely hit with the BA5 bug as part of their recent and ongoing waves so there should not be a second hump in cases for these nations.

The world’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Finally, there is happy talk because the 7-day MA trend line is moving lower at 797K cases per day sub 800K which is great news. Next, the cases need to go sub 700K per day. It is obvious who the major players are; Japan at 214 K cases per day, South Korea at 104K cases per day, and the US at 83K cases per day.

Combining the Three Stooges is 401K cases per day a big chunk of the 797K total COVID-19 cases per day on the planet. Exactly 50%, one-half, of all new China Virus cases in the world are occurring in Japan, South Korea or the United States. Global cases will drop dramatically once these three blind mice get their act together.

The world’s daily new deaths chart is shown above. Sadly, global deaths have been stubbornly elevated refusing to come down. On the positive side, global covid deaths are at early pandemic levels (green line). Japan is a big reason for the elevated deaths so as soon as the Japanese stop dropping like flies, the world’s death rate will subside.

The global death rate is moving through 1.9K to 2.1K dead bodies per day due to coronavirus. The 7-day MA is a hair under 2K deaths per day a disappointing number 2-1/2 years into the exhausting pandemic. 2K is still a lot of global citizens dying each day from the virus.

However, as stated, once the Japan deaths fall off, and if the South Korean deaths can remain in check, and if the US deaths finally drop if Paxlovid is truly being distributed properly, the global death rate will resume the downtrend. It is great news, as the chart shows, that the deaths are no longer increasing for the current infection waves 7, 8 and 9, if you call the current behavior flat.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world at 94 million. India is next with 44.2 million total virus cases. France, Brazil, Germany, UK, Italy, South Korea, Russia, Turkey, Japan, Spain, Vietnam, Australia, Argentina, Netherlands, Iran and Mexico round out the top 18 worst nations for total COVID-19 cases. France leapfrogs Brazil and is now the third highest country in total coronavirus cases in the entire world. Japan leapfrogs Spain. Australia leapfrogs Argentina.

COVID-19 has infected 590 million people worldwide. China (the CCP) owes reparations to the world for its sick heinous crime against humanity. 6.44 million people on Earth are dead from the China Flu a grim statistic. 562 million global citizens have recovered from the virus.

95% (562/590) of the people that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame. This number was 96% for many weeks so the recovery percentage slips a hair as BA5 bites harder.

Worldwide, 1.1% (6.44/590) of the people that are infected with covid die; 1 in 92 (hit the 1/x button on your calculator). This number was 1.2% for over a year so slippage to 1.1% in recent weeks is great news (less people are dying after they become infected compared to prior waves).

7.7% (590/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 13 people on earth. 0.08% of the world’s population (6.44/7670) died from the pandemic; 1 in every 1,191 people on earth died from China Virus over the last couple years.

In the United States, 94 million people are infected with covid. 1.059 million Americans are dead. 89 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus. This equates to 95% (89/94) of US citizens recovering after becoming infected with COVID-19.

In the US, 1.1% (1.059/94.0) of the people infected with COVID-19 die. 1 in every 89 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus die. Thus, if you are infected with China Virus in the United States, you have about a 1 in 90 chance of dying. 0.3% (1/330) of Americans have died from COVID-19 which is 1 in every 330 Americans over the last 2-1/2 years.

28% (94/330) of the American population of 330 million people have been infected with covid; 1 in every 4 Americans (3.5 to be exact so call it 2 in 7). The CDC said that one-half the US population, 50%, have been infected by COVID-19 and have some level of antibody protection; it is likely 60% or even 80% or more now as the omicron bugs work through the system.

The United States has 16% (94/590) of the COVID-19 cases in the world. 1 in 6 people that become infected with covid on the planet are Americans. The US vaccination program made an impact month’s ago, but not so much in recent months.

The US accounts for 16% (1.059/6.44) of the China Flu deaths in the world. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are Americans. Over a year ago, it was 1 in 5 so vaccinations helped.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active cases chart will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart is the ‘flatten the curve’ chart that represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare workers. Once the active cases chart rolls over forming the bell shape, the virus is being defeated and healthcare workers can breathe easier.

The Keystone Model uses the peak in the daily new cases to forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they receive a bullet in their heads (China), and for smaller authoritarian nations (Eastern European countries, Africa and Middle East nations), and many Asian nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand), the active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in daily new cases.

For the Western countries, such as the US and European nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on average, 28 days after the peak in new cases. It takes about 2 weeks longer for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or authoritarian state because lockdowns are not strictly followed or enforced. As time moves along, nations become better equipped and experienced to fend off outbreaks so the time between the daily new cases peak and active cases peak is shortening.

After 2-1/2 years, Western nations are experienced at handling the virus so the distance between the daily and active cases peaks are decreasing towards the 11-day distance where the authoritarian and communist style nations are at that enforce the strict draconian rules to tamp down infections. Once the majority of the population is either vaccinated or had the virus, the path forward becomes easier.

All projections below for countries and the US states continue to use the 11 and 28-day periods for forecasting for consistency. When the peak in daily new cases occurs, if a subsequent day is within 8% of that peak top, it is identified as the peak in daily new cases day in reference to the Keystone Model.

The peak in the daily new cases is easily seen on the bar charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. The daily new cases bar charts are shown on television news channels with a 7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that identifies the trend.

An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the China Virus story forward. The Coronavirus Chronology identifies the real-time hotspots occurring around the world and within the United States. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire pandemic as it unfolds in real-time.

The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be published in the future by Amazon and others and distributed internationally. This is Article 85 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, first responders, psychologists, psychiatrists, counselors, neurologists, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally.

This eighty-fifth article is published on Tuesday, 8/9/22. The Coronavirus Chronology series of articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic from early 2020 into and through 2022; it is the China Virus Bible.

Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad, devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. The information is direct and unapologetic. A chronology can be written no other way.

All 85 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want to remain up to speed with the never-ending COVID-19 saga.

The eighty-third article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)Chronology Article 83 Published 7/19/22; BA5 Subvariant Wreaks Havoc Around theWorld but Trends Are Slowly Improving; US Wave 7 Lingers; United States Exceeds91 Million Total COVID-19 Infections and 1.049 Million Deaths; World Exceeds569 Million COVID-19 Cases and 6.39 Million Deaths; Worldwide COVID-19 HotZones Include US, Canada, Mexico, Central and South America, Europe, China, Japan,Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand; Japan andGuatemala Reporting Record Daily Cases; Novavax Protein-Based Vaccine Approvedfor Use in US; New Coronavirus Variant BA275 (BA.2.75) Dubbed “Centaurus”Identified in 10 Countries Including India, UK, Germany, Netherlands, Canada,Japan, South Korea and Australia; US EXCEEDS 1.05 MILLION DEATHS A GRIMMILESTONE; PRESIDENT BIDEN TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Japan Reports RecordHigh COVID-19 Cases; WORLD EXCEEDS 6.4 MILLION DEATHS FROM CHINA VIRUS;Senators Joe Manchin (Democrat; West Virginia) and Lisa Murkowski (Republican;Alaska) Test Positive for COVID-19; Dr Birx Knew COVID-19 Vaccines Would NotPrevent Infection; 43% of American Parents Refuse to Vaccinate Their ChildrenUnder 5 Years Old; Senator Dick Durbin (Democrat; Illinois) Tests Positive forCOVID-19; Pfizer and Moderna Say New Updated Booster Shots Will Be Available inSeptember

The eighty-fourth article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Article 84 Published 7/30/22; PRESIDENT BIDEN EXPERIENCES PAXLOVID REBOUND TESTING POSITIVE FOR COVID-19 AGAIN; BA5 Subvariant is Dominant Worldwide; Pesky US Wave 7 Continues for Over 3 Months; US Exceeds 93 Million Total COVID-19 Infections and 1.055 Million Deaths; World Exceeds 581 Million COVID-19 Cases and 6.4 Million Deaths; Worldwide COVID-19 Hot Zones Include Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Eastern Europe, Western Asia, Russia, Bolivia, Mexico and United States; Japan Reports Highest China Virus Cases Ever; Japan, South Korea and US Account for Nearly One-Half of New Cases Worldwide; South Africa COVID-19 Death Linked to J&J Vaccine; Study in New England Journal of Medicine Says Natural Immunity is Better or at Par with Vaccinations; New BA46 (BA.4.6) Omicron Subvariant Identified in 44 Countries Including United States; PRESIDENT BIDEN TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID-19 FOR 7 STRAIGHT DAYS DURING PAXLOVID REBOUND AND NEGATIVE ON 8TH DAY

The Worldometer web site tracks coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well.

The countries with rising active cases charts are highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curves are extremely important since it represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers and the medical systems for that infection wave.

It will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over to form the bell shape for the troubled nations at the bottom of the list since they are still experiencing highs and peaks in their daily new cases.

The United States wave 7 is improving peaking with 152K daily cases on 7/21/22, with another high number on 7/22/22, and the 7/28/22 number at 140,400 cases is a hair above the 8% allowance. Regardless, US wave 7 is diminishing and the active cases may have already peaked and starting to drop to form the coveted bell shape. The news is good for the US and worldwide.

French Guiana (Seventh Wave)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
Romania (Sixth Wave)
7/11/22 New Case Peak Date
7/22/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
Kazakhstan (Ninth Wave)
7/19/22 New Case Peak Date
7/30/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
Malaysia (Seventh Wave)
7/20/22 New Case Peak Date
7/31/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening and starting to drop give it a couple more days)
Turkey (Sixth Wave)
7/24/22 New Case Peak Date
8/4/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
Venezuela (Seventh Wave)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/7/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve is rolling over give it a couple more days)
Iran (Eighth Wave)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/7/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
Indonesia (Fifth Wave)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/7/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
United States (Seventh Wave)
7/28/22 New Case Peak Date
8/25/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days) (curve is flattening and starting to drop give it a few more days)
Slovakia (Fifth Wave)
7/30/22 New Case Peak Date
8/10/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
Lithuania (Sixth Wave)
8/2/22 New Case Peak Date
8/13/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Poland (Seventh Wave)
8/2/22 New Case Peak Date
8/13/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Azerbaijan (Seventh Wave)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/14/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Hungary (Sixth Wave)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/14/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Nepal (Sixth Wave)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/14/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Chile (Eighth Wave)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Philippines (Fifth Wave)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Hong Kong (Second Wave)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Japan (Ninth Wave)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
South Korea (Third Wave)
8/7/22 New Case Peak Date
8/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Serbia (Seventh Wave)
8/8/22 New Case Peak Date
8/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Russia (Sixth Wave)
8/8/22 New Case Peak Date
8/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
China is in bad shape with infections and lockdowns continuing but their data cannot be trusted.

Nine countries are removed from the bad list since their active cases curves are starting to roll over lower to form the coveted bell shape; Singapore, Belgium, Mexico, Australia, Ecuador, Montenegro, Peru, India and Bolivia. One dozen nations were removed from the bad list 10 days ago so 21 countries rolling their active cases charts over to the downside over the last couple weeks is great news for the world.

South America beat back the omicron waves easier than other nations probably because of a high level of natural immunity. Chile is experiencing another pop higher in daily cases but that will likely be short-lived.

As seen from the countries listed at the bottom of the list, the trouble spots are Asia, eastern Europe, western Asia and Russia. The daily cases remain relatively low numbers in the eastern Europe area so the main covid hotspot is in Asia specifically Japan, South Korea and China.

The BA5 bug loves all those virgin host bodies that were shielded and hidden from the pandemic during the draconian lockdowns (there is very little natural antibody protection in these nations and China is hit with the double-whammy that their vaccines are junk).

The BA5 infection wave moves eastward across Europe into Russia. Azerbaijan cases are rising so it is added to the bad list. Generally, the rising cases in eastern Europe and western Asia may not become a big deal and only manifest as small waves. Many of these nations were hammered hard over the last 2-1/2 years and the populations likely have high levels of natural immunity.

Note that the 10 countries at the top of the bad list are all displaying active cases curves that are flattening and about to roll over. In other words, in a week or so, the 10 will likely all disappear from the list. The dozen nations at the bottom of the naughty list, however, must pay further covid dues.

The US list below identifies the worst states especially at the bottom of the list. The peak in daily new cases and projections for the peaks in active cases are provided as per the Keystone Model.

The flattening and roll over of the active cases curve forming the bell shape (see US active cases chart above) indicates the virus is being defeated and the caseload on healthcare workers will quickly improve. Healthcare workers are not under duress with wave 7 like prior waves but the caseloads are lingering since April so the smart and pretty nurses, like Nurse Goodbody, deserve a break.

US wave 7 is diminishing so good things are expected in August. Wave 7 is unlike the prior 6 waves in its flat profile so it would not be surprising after this lingering near 4-month period for the active cases to roll over within days of the daily new cases rolling over (rather than the 28-day period that other US waves followed).

August may be the last big month for the COVID-19 pandemic phase both for the US and the world but Keystone said July was that month in the last article. The United States is improving and the pace of positivity should increase in the days ahead.

Alabama (Seventh Wave)
7/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/3/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
Nebraska (Seventh Wave)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
8/4/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flattening and trying to roll over)
Idaho (Seventh Wave)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date (spike on 8/5/22 but this is likely multiple days)
8/5/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over lower give it a couple more days)
Florida (Seventh Wave)
7/14/22 New Case Peak Date
8/11/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat for 6 weeks trying to roll over)
New Mexico (Seventh Wave)
7/15/22 New Case Peak Date
8/12/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat for 5 weeks trying to roll over lower)
California (Seventh Wave)
7/15/22 New Case Peak Date
8/12/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and rolling over but give it a few more days)
Mississippi (Seventh Wave)
7/21/22 New Case Peak Date
8/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and wanting to roll over)
Iowa (Seventh Wave)
7/26/22 New Case Peak Date
8/23/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but give it a few days)
New Hampshire (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/26/22 New Case Peak Date
8/23/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and rolling over but give it a couple more days)
North Dakota (Seventh Wave)
7/26/22 New Case Peak Date
8/23/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
Kansas (Seventh Wave)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/24/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten)
Nevada (Seventh Wave)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/24/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve jumps higher but reverses lower give it a few days)
Oklahoma (Seventh Wave)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/24/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and rolling over)
New Jersey (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/24/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over lower)
Pennsylvania (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/24/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but give it a couple days)
West Virginia (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/28/22 New Case Peak Date
8/25/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
Maryland (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/29/22 New Case Peak Date
8/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
Virginia (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/29/22 New Case Peak Date
8/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is trying to flatten)
Wisconsin (Seventh Wave (7b))
7/29/22 New Case Peak Date
8/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve heads higher)
Delaware (Seventh Wave (7b))
8/1/22 New Case Peak Date
8/29/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date(curve trying to flatten)
Texas (Seventh Wave)
6/21/22 New Case Peak Date (8/2/22 is alternate peak since 6/21/22 may be multiple days)
8/30/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten)
South Dakota (Seventh Wave)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/31/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
Michigan (Seventh Wave (7b))
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/31/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but give it a couple days)
Ohio (Seventh Wave (7b))
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/31/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten)
Georgia (Seventh Wave)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date (data stopped)
8/31/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is trying to flatten but data is lagging)
Indiana (Seventh Wave)
8/4/22 New Case Peak Date
9/1/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kentucky (Seventh Wave) (disastrous flooding increasing covid infections)
8/5/22 New Case Peak Date
9/2/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date

There are 27 states on the bad list above. Seven states were removed from the list since their active cases chats have rolled over including Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Montana, New York and Missouri. Interesting stuff. Some southern states are beating back BA5 and succeeding but others like Georgia and Kentucky struggle.

Arizona is off the list so the infections exacerbated by the ongoing border crisis may be subsiding. This makes sense since the cases in Guatemala and Mexico have been working lower for the last month. New York is working through its double-hump with BA5 cases decreasing.

The great thing about the bad list is the many active cases curves that are flat and starting to roll over. Many states above will fall off the bad list in the coming days like pine needles falling from a Christmas tree that has not been watered.

Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Delaware, Virginia and Wisconsin remain challenged and need to stay focused on the job at hand as US wave 7 subsides.

The United States is positioned well to make dramatic improvements in beating-down wave 7 in the days and couple weeks ahead just in time for the par-tay’s on Labor Day (9/5/22). Keystone already has plans to attend a shindig on 9/3/22 that will be a fantastic blowout.

The wave 7 chart above shows that the spring and summer holidays did not create any appreciable gain in new cases only subtle bumps so the same or less would be expected for the upcoming party time from 9/1/22 through 9/5/22.

The CDC Community Transmission map displays a lot of yellow and orange but the data is a week old. The Worldometer data is more current so the bad state list above and descriptions are more up to date and applicable than the CDC map.

The CDC says 42% of the US is in a high-risk transmission zone (orange) where it is recommended to wear masks indoors. 39% of the country is in a medium-risk county and 19% are in a low-risk county. Thus, 81% of the US counties are at medium or high risk. This is overblown or more correctly, the map is providing guidance for something that happened a week or two ago.

In a week or two, a lot more green and yellow will appear on the map with the orange diminishing. As per the bad list above, 27 states remain challenged but 17 of them will be in great shape in the coming days. Thus, only 54% of the US is challenged (comparable to medium and high risk) and in about a week’s time, only about 20% of the United States will be challenged.

You can see the importance of having the most up to date real-time data and information possible. The CDC Community Transmission map is an excellent tool but it has to be updated faster with no more than a 2-day lag. Get to it.  Chop, chop.

US hospital admissions are dropping a beautiful sight since it leads the US hospitalizations that are flat and starting to develop a downward bias at 37K cases per day. It is good news.

The new Novavax vaccine is not gaining traction with the public or healthcare professionals. Most folks probably still do not know it is available. NVAX stock crashes -35%.

The CDC is hosting an international conference on infectious diseases  from Sunday through tomorrow. Topics at the conference include a discussion of covid screening in schools. Speakers include Director Walensky that plans to talk about masks. Do you think she will highlight the studies that indicate masks are only of marginal value in preventing infection, at best, but at the same time inflict serious mental, emotional and learning issues on the wearers including depression? Probably not.

Walensky will tell you that masks are the greatest thing since sliced bread as people move the masks aside to pick their noses, scratch an itch, or sneak a full breath. Kids wear the masks on their ears and use them as a handkerchief when they sneeze. Adults wear the masks around their mouth and not the nose which is the orifice that the virus prefers. It is hard to incorporate all these variables into mask studies.

President Biden went immediately maskless and started directly interacting with people the minute he tested negative for the second time on Sunday morning. Same-o yesterday in Kentucky the president was in close quarters with folks and no one was wearing masks. Same-o today when Biden talks from the podium about the new chips (semiconductors) bill so masks must be passe, like the heroin that is so passe that the Dandy Warhols sing about.

Biden looks good during his short speech today so he must have guzzled five cups of coffee before walking to the podium or perhaps Dr O’Connor provided a little help. Biden coughs during the speech so that has not gone away. He is hurried in his speaking, barely giving himself time to sip water quickly, then talking, and coughing again. He appears animated. You want to tell him to relax and take a couple breaths. There is phlegm with his cough but obviously you cannot spit that out in front of everyone so he swallows it.

If you are coughing up throat drainage or lung congestion, spit that garbage out, expel it from your body. Each morning you should stand with hands in the air and then bend at the hips where the hands then touch the floor. During the down move breathe out and let the lungs clear from any dust, smoke or other nasties sitting down in the cilia. Cough the stuff up and spit it out to keep your lungs clear and healthy.

The US airline nightmare continues. Flights delayed or cancelled. Unhappy passengers. Thin staffs. Hey *sshole airlines, how’s that vaccine mandate garbage working out? The airlines forced experienced pilots, crews, mechanics and airport workers into retirement over the mRNA jabs. Other airline employees changed professions since they did not want to kneel before their airline bosses and receive the healthcare that idiot managers decree for their bodies.

The airline employees that did not want to lose their jobs instead decided to swallow their pride, and lose their self-respect, and kneel in front of the boss to receive the COVID-19 vaccines. Some folks may like to be submissive but most men do not. Thus, every time the airline gets busy now especially around holiday weekends, that is a good time to screw the boss and call in sick. Payback’s a bitch.

Even funnier, the boss will put up with it because they are short on staff. How do you like licking the employees’ arse instead of the other way around bossy? The airlines turned loyal employees into workers that hate their jobs and will take any opportunity to screw the company since the CEO’s forced shots down their throats. This is the way the world works Sonny and Girly.

The funniest part of it all is that the vaccines are not even vaccines. The multiple jabs are COVID-19 death prevention shots since infection and transmission can still occur. In addition, most of the shots wear off in 5 or 6 months so folks stuck like pincushions with mRNA, but have not had a booster or booster-booster shot since February, are likely no better protected than the unvaccinated.

The pandemic is a crazy ride. Dr’s Fauci and Jha, and other medical talking heads, keep telling folks to get a shot now if you have not had one this year for the reasons stated. The US vaccination rate languishes at about 270K shots per day. Americans have moved on from the pandemic since there are too many other problems and trouble to worry about as Ray sings.

The United States in excellent shape to send wave 7 packing with daily new cases having peaked about 3 weeks ago and stepping downward ever since. Next, the US active cases need to continue rolling over and form the bell shape so we can ring in the end of the pandemic phase and become Shiny Happy People. Meet me in the crowd.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world reports 599K daily new cases for Monday a sub 600K number and the 7-day MA trend line is at 798K cases per day a sub 800K number coming down nicely. Daily China Flu cases will drop sharply as Japan, South Korea and the US beat down their current infection waves. The global COVID-19 death rate remains stuck at 2K bodies per day. Japan reports 173K daily new cases yesterday with the 7-day MA at 214K cases per day. It is ugly but a positive aspect is that the rate of increase in cases is slowing so a top in daily cases may be at hand. Japan's peak is 253K daily cases last Friday, 8/5/22, so this Friday's cases are key and must be below 253K to establish a downtrend. This outcome is likely. Boom. South Korea reports 150K daily new cases yesterday a spike higher and the most for the current wave. This is not good. The 7-day MA is going parabolic at 108K cases per day so South Korea is in the covid pickle barrel. Indonesia reports 6.3K cases yesterday teasing highs over the last couple weeks that compare back to March. Poland reports 6K cases yesterday a new high for the current wave and not seen since March. Georgia and Azerbaijan are dealing with new infection waves.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 5:30 AM EST:  China's cities remain in various stages of lockdowns with mass testing ongoing each day for millions of Chinese folks. It is getting old. The Chinese are complaining that nowhere is safe anymore. Anywhere they travel domestically, they understand that they may end up getting stuck there for a couple weeks if someone tests positive for China Virus. This is no way to live. The mess on the tourist island of Hainan, and at Sanya specifically, continues with 80K people in lockdown. Domestic travel takes a big hit in China which will hurt the economy. Dirtbag Dictator Xi shows force against the independent nation of Taiwan with military drills to distract the domestic audience away from his zero-covid mess and the slow-motion housing and banking crisis. 

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports only 46K daily new cases for Monday a wonderful sight. The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is down to 79K cases per day a sub 80K number. The signs and signals continue stacking up for a positive end to US wave 7. Kentucky continues reporting elevated cases the folks are screwed by the floods. They are trying to help each other through the disaster as well as people from other states so folks are in close quarters with lots of physical contact. Shelters and cooling centers are well occupied. China Virus takes advantage of the situation searching for more host bodies. Kentuckians are resilient people that will beat back covid and rebuild after the floods. The United States is in good shape to defeat wave 7 but must remain vigilant for a few more days to make sure the cases continue falling. Another minor worry may be kids returning to school but Americans are set up for a happy late summer and early Fall with wave 7 in the tank but this will also be when Lord Fauci, the CDC, Sleepy Joe and the Whitehouse will be talking about booster shots. Oy vey. The new booster-booster-booster (5th shot), or booster-booster for others (4th shot), may be fighting the last war. The boosters are supposedly better for fighting omicron strains but will that matter in the Fall and winter? A new bug may be at play, or not much at all. Will the vaccine proponents be hawking a combination covid/seasonal flu shot? The alchemists are working overtime in the laboratories mixing up the witches brews. Now where is that eye of newt?

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 7:30 AM EST: The CDC reports that the BA46 subvariant increases from 4% to under 5% of the new COVID-19 cases in the US over the last week a modest, and not exponential rise, at least so far. Dr Eric Topol is not concerned about BA46 but quickly says it must be closely monitored going forward. 

Monday, August 8, 2022

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

The S&P 500 monthly chart is shown above and it has been quite a ride on the back of the central banker money-printing over the last 13 years. It is obscene. The chart clearly displays crony capitalism in all its glory but the greedy bastards will pay the price going forward for raping the US. The people most worried about the country are the 30 million elite privileged and upper middle class sycophants that screwed the other 300 million. Payback's a b*tch. You ain't seen nuttin' yet.

Keystone called the top in the stock market as the year began. Who said you cannot call tops and bottoms? The people that do not know how to do it. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and universal negative divergence across all chart indicators made the call simple. The upper standard deviation band was violated so a trip back to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, was needed and occurs. Also, price was way overextended in nosebleed territory with the SPX topped-out at 4819 as the all-time high above the 10-mth MA above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200; a perfect moving average ribbon of pending doom (price reversion).

What is going on now? The previous SPX daily chart wants to top out now or over the coming days. The MACD wants one more price high which may be today but it needs to occur with the MACD going neggie d to mark the top. If stocks have a bit more juice in the daily time frame, watch the RSI and MACD which would top-out in the days ahead. The SPX weekly chart is bullish wanting more highs on a weekly basis.

So that brings us to the monthly longer-term timeframe. After a couple weeks of sogginess or choppiness due to the 2-hour and daily charts, stocks should rally for a few weeks into September. At that time the ugliness in the monthly chart will reexert itself. Thus, once the weekly rally peters out and tops, and that will be an easy call when all the chart indicators are neggie d, say in September, maybe October, a nasty drop will begin. Perhaps an epic crash begins sometime in early September. It will be fun.

The short green bar shows stocks bottoming in June and July with a matching price low so the indicators can be studied to see if any possie d exists and it does with the RSI and stoch's so stocks make the relief bounce. Note that as price made the matching lows, the MACD line, histogram and money flow all remain weak and bleak. That tells you there is far more long-term pain ahead for the United States stock market. It is easy to see. It's not rocket science and Keystone knows rocket science.

The RSI dipped its toe into bear territory below 50% but the water was too cold so it wants to stay on the bull side but that is not going to happen; watch to see if the RSI goes sub 50% again which will signal more pain ahead. The stochastics never even got oversold as yet. There is a long way down ahead for stocks on the monthly basis. Price has not even touched the 50 MA and will eventually undershoot the 200 MA down at 2100. Isn't that wild? Price was in the vicinity of the lower standard deviation band but popped higher so it really needs to come down to show the bottom band respect; this is more negativity going forward.

The ADX clearly shows how the rally in 2014 into 2015 was a strong trend higher, then it petered out. Keystone calls the May 2015 top the last legitimate top in the US stock market so it would be expected for price to come back down to this level over the next months or year or two. Note how the ADX peaks lessened as the rallies continued over the years and the price top and 2022 began as barely a strong trend higher and it peters out immediately another reason to call the top back then. The ADX is flattening now and will head higher. As selloffs occur and a few months tick by, watch to see if the ADX moves above the high 20's or 30 since that will signal a strong downward trend in play that will likely continue.

The Aroon shows that traders and investors remain optimistic only worried that they will miss the dip to buy more longs. It's funny. Note the chintzy red negative crosses that only lasted a couple-few months. The Fed and other global central bankers print more money and voila, stocks go up again and the green positive cross occurs keeping the bulls in charge. The green line remains overbot and the red bear line oversold showing that both bears and bulls expect stocks to recover and head back up to healthy high numbers again (contrarian signal). That is not likely instead watch for a negative red cross again which will be another signal that far more doom and gloom is on the horizon.

The four central banker horseman of the coming financial apocalypse, the BOJ (Bank of Japan), ECB (European Central Bank), PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) and the Federal Reserve (Fed; FOMC; United States) are the ghost riders in the sky watching the horror unfold below due to their money-printing and market interventions. Not even Chairman Powell, the world's lender of last resort, riding in on the pale green horse, can save the planet from the pending doom. Human greed destroys all.

One-half of Americans do not own one single share of stock so who benefited from the chart above? Of course the greedy bastards that control the United States, the politicians, corporate executives and their sycophants, made themselves filthy rich while screwing everyone else. The Fed and other central bankers act dovish and print money so stocks will rise rewarding the rich and then when they leave public life, Wall Street investment banks pay the retired public officials triple digit speaking fees to appear at token luncheons, a quid pro quo for their service. Isn't crony capitalism sickening? It deserves to die. It is enough to make you puke.

The 10-mth MA at 4308 and 12-mth MA at 4333 are critically important numbers. If the Fed has something up their sleeve and they begin pumping again and stocks get upside legs, the first important tell is if the 20 MA is taken out at 4255. That would set up a run for the 12-mth MA at 4333 which is one of Keystone's important cyclical stock market indicators. The US stock market remains mired in a cyclical bear market because the SPX is below the 12-mth MA. It would be a big deal if the SPX moves above the 12-mth requiring a recalibration and second look at the chart set up (it will likely only delay the inevitable by a few months).

Thus, enjoy the remainder of the stock market rally on the weekly basis because when that peters out probably 3 to 6 weeks forward, you have to watch the weekly chart develop, the monthly chart will take over and the downside fun will resume. Keystone can call the top in the weekly chart when it occurs if any of you want to know. If not, that is fine, too. Keystone will be having fun. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, August 7, 2022

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

Keystone has been telling you about the multi-week rally coming for the last 2 months. It's here. The SPX weekly chart bounces off the positive divergence but the picture is more involved. It was not a clean bottom. There was a lot of choppy slop as stocks based and are now rising for 7 weeks.

The green falling wedge, oversold RSI and stochastics, and positive divergence bounce stocks in early June. That was when retail investors panicked for the first time. Also, a big recession fear occurs in Europe so euro and sterling fall and the dollar jumps higher. Markets then go into that choppy slop for a month trying to bottom. When the SPX bounced in June, note that it was only due to the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow. The MACD line and ROC remain weak and bleak wanting price to come back down again for lower lows after any rally occurs on the weekly basis.

The neon green line shows 4 weeks of price bottoming at the same general level with positive divergence in all the chart indicators except the MACD and money flow. They are flat and money flow does bottom above the prior bottom so call them pseudo-possie d. It is a nice set up for bulls and stocks pop higher for the last 4 weeks. Those red lines of sogginess, however, hint that the SPX will have to come back down on a weekly basis after it has its upside fun.

The SPX upside on the weekly basis has legs as shown by the long and strong chart indicators. The RSI crosses above 50% into bull territory, by a hair, ditto the stochastics in a stronger move above 50%. The money flow makes a higher high. Ditto the ROC. It looks real good for bulls on the weekly basis.

Price is breaking up and out of the downward-sloping red channels; more bullishness. However, further tests of the bull's will are on tap. The SPX is above the 100-week MA at 4134 and the 20-wk MA at 4100 more bullish stuff. Will there be a battle in this range?

Look back at the daily chart. It is in negative divergence except for the MACD line that wants another high. Thus, the S&P 500 will top out on the daily chart in the days ahead which leads into several days or a week or so of downside on the daily basis (look at prior post for the daily basis analysis).  Since price may become soggy for several days forward after it tops-out probably this week on the daily basis, it would give an excuse for the weekly chart to pull back into that 4100-4134 battle zone. The 100-day MA is at 4118 and the key S/R gauntlet is at 4160 (purple line).

When the daily chart pulls back, it will likely seek 4100-4118 and then dip-buyers will enter in force. The set-up on the weekly chart above is bullish all the way so another leg higher is likely on tap, on the weekly basis, after the daily chart bottoms (probably 1 or 2 weeks out). The SPX taking out 4160 will be a big deal and by the looks of the chart above, its coming. The 20 and 100 MA's are important so it is appropriate for price to come down for back kisses at 4100 and 4134, respectively, to make sure up is the path forward, and the daily time frame would like to accommodate this move.

When the SPX bottomed in June it violated the lower standard deviation band (gold color) so the middle band, which is also the 20 MA, at 4100, was on the table, and it was served. The upper band at 4582 and dropping remains on the table if the bulls start pumping higher and massive short-covering rallies occur, but do not put a lot of stock in this outcome. More realistically the SPX multi-week rally will likely take price to the 50-week MA at 4352. This would be 2 hundo points from here.

Keystone took profits on longs and is not in a rush to jump back in despite all the Mr Brightside stuff above. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long the stock market placing a lot of emphasis on UTIL 999.90 this week. There may be some choppy slop on tap again with the daily chart trying to top-out as the weekly chart is full steam ahead higher. Keystone will wait a few days until the daily top is confirmed and the neggie d spankdown occurs, then, when the daily chart bottoms and forms possie d, probably sometime this month, you simply have to watch the chart, that will be a good time to buy long to ride the ongoing rally in the weekly time frame up to its top. The entry into long positions can be timed with the 2-hour and daily charts when they set up with possie d as the month plays out.

Many pundits on television are making prognostications about whether or not THE bottom has occurred in the US stock market. Jackasses. For one, you always have to reference a time frame for any forecast, otherwise, you are a charlatan. So anyone not attaching a time frame to their calls are worthless jerks that simply want more money to come into their funds.

The SPX monthly chart displays weak and bleak MACD and money flow. There is lots of downside ahead on a long-term multi-month basis. It is as plain as the nose on your face.

Thus, the 2-hour time frame still wants to see weakness now. The daily chart wants to see one more high in price during one of the days ahead and that will likely be the top in this time frame. The weekly chart is long and strong signaling a multi-week rally remaining in progress.

The monthly chart wants the SPX to roll over and die after the weekly rally is finished, perhaps in September or October, great months for crashes, and come all the way down taking out this year's lows and heading towards early 2020 lows. It is easy to see that the US stock market can drop another -50% from the current levels over the next year or two.

Stocks may be choppy with some sogginess over the next couple weeks, then up for several weeks into September, then, when the SPX weekly chart tops out with neggie d, likely in September or October, a massive drop is likely on tap. It will be fun.

Trading-wise, Keystone will wait for a few days or week or two, and not chase any further upside due to the set up on the daily chart, even though stocks may run higher early in the week, and then likely play the long side say starting about 2 or 3 weeks from now and exit the longs when the weekly chart goes neggie d, probably in September maybe October, and then go massively short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.