Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side today at SPX 7470. After a couple weeks of teasing, it finally commits. That said, do not be surprised if it whipsaws back to the short side. Volatility was jammed lower today and copper goosed higher. The copper joy created the thrust higher in stocks this morning. As copper goes, so goes the market.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern

The SPX is forming a diamond pattern you can call it a diamond in the rough. An up or down decision will need to be made by price in the coming days and typically, the diamond would be expected to create a reversal to the downside from here. Diamonds Are a Girl's Best Friend.

Diamonds will tend to form after long downside selloffs, or long upside rallies, like now. As stated, it signals a potential trend reversal. The consolidations diamond consists of higher highs and lower lows in the first half creating the expansion behavior, and then followed by lower highs and higher lows in the second half creating the contraction phase and producing the diamond shape. Neither bulls nor bears are in control. Both are fighting each other and the lower highs typically set the stage for a breakdown.

The winner can be determined by the side that crosses their diamond apexes first. If price floats higher now and gets above 7600, a breakout, that tells you the bulls are still going to run and the bears will lose their shirts. What would be expected is a breakdown and this can be confirmed if the 7250-ish is taken out to the downside. The bears would then dance with glee as they slash downward at the bulls tearing flesh.

It is a diamond in the rough since a couple more days may play out before it makes the bounce or die decision. Little Darlin' was a huge hit by The Diamonds. Classic Doo Wop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Daily Chart; Potential Island Reversal Pattern or Gap Fill; Positive Divergence; Oversold; Oil Was 67 Before the Iran War

The West Texas Crude Oil daily chart is interesting. The drama started when King Donnie Chumpski attacked Iran starting a Middle East war. This was the last day of February and you can see the immediate gap-up move once the bombs started falling. Oil was at 67 and lower before Donnie Chump's war so that is a key number to watch since the president's cheerleaders will be throwing confetti singing Hey Mickey. President Trump's detractors are up all night praying by their bedsides for 67 to not occur before the mid-term elections in November (so they can use it as a talking point). Isn't the two-party corrupt crony capitalism system sickening?

The gap up move in oil at the start of the war creates an island above let's call it Trump Island. It is only a short boat ride from Epstein Island where secrets are buried. Donnie likes gold plated tacky crap from the 1980's so he was pleased that his island is rich with pyrite. A red mountain range forms with spikes corresponding to bad news from the Iran War. WTIC tagged 120 in the first few days and it was comfortable with 110 and higher for a few days a couple different times.

Price comes down to 70 from where it broke out higher in early March. A potential island reversal pattern is on the table. Whozzit? Whazzit? Price may gap lower from 70 to 67 in a heartbeat falling back through the gap that was created at the start of the war creating the island reversal pattern. Price may also simply meander lower from 70 and fill the gap.

Interestingly, the green lines show price making lower lows with the chart indicators positively diverged in this daily time frame. Technically, the chart wants to see oil bounce from here and not fail, on the daily basis. It has fallen like a stone so it is reasonable to expect a back kiss of the 200-day MA at 73.84 in the days ahead. King Donnie better jump on his social internet account quick and begin bloviating good news from Iran to help create either the island reversal or the gap fill.

Trump wants lower oil prices, especially to get them back to pre-war levels and lower, so he can use it as a bragging point ahead of the elections. Obviously, democrats are content with oil above 70 since they can use it against Trump. Doing what is right for Americans no longer matters. The corrupt republicans and democrats pledge their allegiance to their crony parties and political narratives and agendas and not to the country. It is called crony capitalism pig slop.

A head and shoulders pattern forms on Trump Island as shown by the red lines. It has three right shoulders, you can call it Quasimodo. In life, everyone is deformed and damaged in some manner physically, mentally or emotionally. At least you do not have three humps in your shoulder. The head is at 113 with neckline at 87 so that is 26 difference. If price falls through the neckline, the downside target would be 61 subtracting the 26 from 87. The neckline failed so 61 remains a downside target.

Brent oil broke out higher from 73 when the Iran War started and it has returned down to its starting point printing a 71 handle a couple days ago and now at 73.54. If WTI follows the Brent lead, oil price would continue lower and produce either the island reversal pattern or a simple gap fill and ring the bell at 67 and lower. 

The gold circle shows the golden cross that forecasted higher prices ahead but that was Captain Obvious stuff once the missiles, drones and bombs were detonating all over the Middle East. The possie d wants to see prices rally on the daily basis for a few days. This will only change if happy talk occurs from Donnie and the Iran War.

Watch for the potential island reversal or gap fill. Watch 67 since that is when you will have the Trump sycophants cheering, and the deranged never-Trumper's jeering. Keystone is not playing oil or its derivatives long or short these days. Have the high oil prices gone away? Gone Away by The Offspring. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/30/26, at 5:47 AM EST: WTIC oil 70.81 dancing above and below the flat line. Analysts are all over the map some saying an oil glut will sink prices but others say supply problems will persist. In the daily time frame, will WTIC oil bounce, or produce an island reversal, or produce a gap fill? It probably depends on what King Donnie decrees about his Iran War today. Brent oil 73.16.

Note Added Tuesday, 6/30/26, at 12:01 PM EST: WTIC oil teeters at 70.00. Will it bounce? Will it fall through the gap for an island reversal? Will it slowly drift lower to fill the gap? Take your pick.

AAPL Apple Monthly and Daily Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Textbook 2-Leg Bear Flag; Apple Prints Significant Multi-Month Top

The SPX monthly chart posted previously explains the significant stock market top at hand. Since Apple is such a big player in the investment game, what is it doing? Does it confirm the doom and gloom hypothesis or is all that just a bag of wind? The AAPL monthly chart above tells you it is doom and gloom all the way, baby. Kitty saw the Apple chart and ran to hide under the bed. Apple is raising prices due to the higher cost of goods so that creates a dark cloud over the stock in the near-term.

The AAPL monthly chart has a rising wedge vibe to it (the upward-sloping channel is not parallel). Price prints a matching or higher high this month so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. It has it in spades. There is no upside to all those red lines. The chart is in neggie d across all indicators and the RSI and stochastics are or were overbot agreeable to a pullback. A multi-month slapdown is needed.

The upper band is violated so a move to the middle band at 247 is on the table and also the lower band at 189. Long-time Apple enthusiasts scream, "Blasphemy! How dare you talk about our beloved Apple this way?" It is what it is and the apple is just past its ripeness and starting to become soft and rot. That is a healthy selling volume candlestick for June (for bears).

The ADX shows that the last strong trend for Apple was higher but that petered out over 2 years ago. That means the ADX considers the price increases over the last 2+ years to be fluff. That would put AAPL down to the lower blue line at 190-200 in the months ahead. Is everyone ready for that? Price is extended above its moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon is an eye opener and what you would expect at a bubble top. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls believe that AAPL stock will go up forever. That is not news; it is expected by all the Apple fanboys. The red line shows that 100% of the Apple bears also believe that AAPL is going up forever. That is funny. There are zero bears in Apple. Everyone is 100% bullish no matter if you are a Wall Street analyst walking around in a $4,000 custom-tailored Armani suit, Joe Sixpack trading stocks in his underwear, the investment committee made up of two dozen blue-haired grannies, or the Uber driver, everyone is 100% all-in on Apple drinking that Apple-flavored Kool-Aid. Human nature can make you laugh out loud sometimes.

The monthly chart is cooked, crispy-fried. If you are long, take your profits and say goodbye to Apple, otherwise you will be the Sapple. It would be smarter to short the Apple rallies going forward if you want to play it at all. Keystone is not in AAPL long or short right now and has not played it for a couple years.

The daily chart is also provided to show a textbook 2-leg bear flag pattern. First, you can see the easy top call as June started due to the neggie d. The spankdown occurs on the daily basis and forms the textbook bear flag. Price drops from 318 to 290 that is a 28-point drop. Then the sideways consolidation occurs creating the flag. Typically, the move is sideways with a slight upward bias. The Apple flag is a bit sharper on the upswing due to the undying enthusiasm by the dip-buyers to own more of their precious stock. My Precious. The flag finishes and the second leg of the down move begins from 303. The projection would be 303-28=275. Bingo. Old guys say bingo a lot. Bingo. Price drops to 275 to satisfy the 2-leg bear flag pattern.

So we know that Apple is cooked in the monthly time frame. A multi-month and perhaps multi-year down move is ahead for the beloved ticker. These were the highest prices you will see for Apple for a long time. On the daily chart, Price makes matching or lower lows for the last couple days so the indicators can be assessed for positive divergence. All the indicators are set up for a possie d bounce (green lines) except for the MACD that wants one more low in price. Apple may bounce today, then down on Tuesday, then from there begin a multi-day rally.

If you bring up the AAPL weekly chart you can see how it is receiving its neggie d spankdown off the top and price hesitates at the 20-wk MA support at 275. No wonder price stopped at this key level. This will provide a chance for buoyancy to occur on the daily basis but the RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow on the weekly basis are all weak and bleak wanting to see more lower lows in price on the weekly basis. Apple is looking like a real turd. Get out of it and save yourself if long. AAPL should bounce in the daily time frame say the back half of this week and early July but that will likely be a last chance to get out, and then it will likely drop to the 240-250 area as it continues the long multi-week and multi-month slide lower.

The only caveat in the above analysis, just like the prior SPX monthly chart, is that June still has 2 days remaining before the lines above are cast in concrete and a July candlestick begins. Watch that MACD line to make sure it remains neggie d to confirm the top. It does not make much difference if the MACD can muster up a slight up slope in these two days since the major top would only be delayed by a few weeks. She's cooked folks. Apple is now an apple pie that will be eaten and turn into crumbs over time. AAPL stockholders are telling Apple Records Don't Let Me Down. They were all good singers including Ringo. Yoko Ono and their other squeezes at the time are sitting off to the side. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Multi-Month and Potentially Multi-Year Stock Market Top At Hand if MACD Cooperates

This juncture is reminiscent of the end of April. All the chart indicators on the SPX monthly chart went neggie d identifying a major long-term top but there was one caveat. The MACD line topped out dead flat. This qualifies as negative divergence (price is higher) but the stock market may want to play around for another month or two with a jog move to firmly lock in the neggie d with the MACD undeniably sloping lower.

Whazzat? Whozzit? What did he say? That sounds like Greek to me. The Sound of Silence. Artists rarely receive accolades for singing cover songs and they never sound as good as the original. Disturbed received a thumbs up from Paul Simon about their rendition of the song; that would be a highlight of any music career. There is only one language that is universal worldwide among all peoples. Music. It is the only one. The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls, and tenement halls.

Anyhoo, the maroon lines above show the neggie d at the end of April that should have started the long-term smackdown. Alas, here comes the calvary with the AI albatross being hyped for the umpteenth time and also happy talk about the end of the Iran War pumping stocks higher. Equities stagger around these record highs and may have already placed the major and historic top this month.

Everything hinges on the MACD line (green circle). The SPX price prints a matching or higher high in June versus May so the indicators can be assessed for negative divergence to see if it is time to call the top. The red lines are set up just like the maroon lines were at the end of April. All the chart indicators are in neggie d, and the RSI and stochastics are overbot also wanting a pullback, except for that pesky MACD line. It is like herding kittens and the MACD line is not yet cooperating. If you squint, and blink a few times, the MACD line in that green circle is still sloping higher by a single hair. The bulls know how to stretch out a party.

But the above is background for your homework assignment. Obviously, you have to watch that green circle like a hawk on Monday and Tuesday. June ends at 4 PM EST Tuesday so this month's candlestick, and the MACD line, will be cast in concrete, and July trading begins on hump day when a new monthly candlestick will begin. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why Keystone was shunned by neighbor Karen and not invited to the block party, The Coverups showed up instead, the next 2 days tell you if the major top is locked in, or not. The bears have 2 days to turn the MACD line either flat or sloping down, and the top can be called, and the multi-month and multi-year spankdown will begin.

What happens if that pesky little MACD cat remains sloping higher. That means there are still a few fumes in the tank to take price higher again. However, considering that the universal neggie d had already displayed at the end of April and all those chart indicators remain negative, the POS can fall apart at any time. It is exciting stuff. It would be a good forecast to say the long-term multi-month and potentially multi-year stock market top is in and if not, it will be in July.

Just think, you are witnessing a major and historic top that will be talked about for decades to come. You are seeing it unfold in real-time and watching the top call come into view as it occurs. The next 2 days are bigtime important and the first candlestick for July on Wednesday will also reveal a lot about the chart.

Are you starting to understand why Keystone is telling all of you idiots, especially you young idiots, to get out of you long positions? There are many months of downside ahead for equities and considering that we are crossing over into the second half of the year, that weakness in stocks that will begin at any time should run at least into 2027. Probably anyone that bot stocks over the last couple years will be flat or have lost money a few months or a year from now. If you were smart, get out of your longs and let that dough sit in your brokerage account and enjoy the summer. Take a look at things in the Fall to see what happened. Let everyone else, especially the smart money, hold the bag.

Price violates the upper band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA at 6486, rising sharply, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 5359 rising sharply. When stocks start falling apart, the 10-mth MA at 6971, and rising, soon to be 7000, is an early warning signal that the stock market is in major trouble. If the 12-mth MA at 6876 and rising, call it 6900+, fails, equities fall into a cyclical bear market when historic damage and carnage will occur.

All the characteristics of a significant stock market top are in place. The put/calls had registered multi-year lows verifying the complacency and fearlessness in the market. Heavily-invested Masayoshi Son proclaims it "is blasphemy" and "an insult" to say that artificial intelligence is in a bubble (when people talk like this you should worry about AI being in a bubble). JPM raises its SPX price target. Some houses continue to forecast from 8.0K to 8.3K for the SPX by year-end. Wow, they are going to be surprised. Look at the chart above. They must be blind. Any little pullback with equities is met with talking heads proclaiming that it is the buying opportunity of the century. It is comical stuff and examples of what you expect at a major top.

Most importantly, the number one big mistake most traders, investors, and especially business owners and entrepreneurs make, is always projecting their sales and current results well into the future expecting those numbers to continue indefinitely. This is how companies are cut off at the knees. It is better to plan wisely and grow slowly because those hard times can hit super fast and all those fancy sales projections and income numbers on that piece of paper on the conference table, is blown out the window into the dumpster below with a gust of ill wind.

This is fun. When do you get a chance to see economic and stock market history occur right before your eyes in real-time? Watch that MACD line. The Strokes have a new one out called Going Shopping with Julian going overboard with the AutoTune. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities, SPX S&P 500, XLP Consumer Staples, and XLY Consumer Discretionary Daily Charts; America's Crony Capitalism System Created the Have's and Have-Not's

It is interesting how the utilities and broad stock market have been moving inversely for the last few months. It is not unexpected. Utes were always called the widows and orphans sector because it was safer but the data center buildup changes the landscape. Nonetheless, despite the new AI age, that feels a lot like it always did despite artificial intelligence in its fourth breakout year, traders still view utes as a flight to safety if the stock market gets into trouble.

The big picture shows utilities rallying from the start of this year until the end of March and early April. The SPX tumbles lower during this period and that is the bottom where stocks rally from April to the start of June. The utilities sell off while the stock market rallies into June. From the June stock market top until now, at the end of the month, utilities are rallying and stocks are soggy. Will this continue spelling trouble ahead for stocks?

You can see how the SPX is overextended above the 20-day MA above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. The same behavior occurred during the top earlier this year. The 150-day MA continues sloping higher indicating that the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern. Trouble is at hand when the 150 flattens and then rolls over. This was occurring in the springtime but of course, the stock market was stick-saved early April. The wealthy must protect their money.

The XLP and XLY ETF's provide insight into the new America, the New Gilded Age, a la the 1920's. The US is the land of the have's and have-not's. The middle class was eliminated starting with Ronnie Ray-gun busting the unions in the 1980's and sending the middle class jobs overseas to take advantage of the slave labor. This sent stock prices to the moon (lower expenses) making the wealthy filthy rich but gutting America's middle class that lost their jobs and did not benefit from the stock rallies since they did not own stock. The jobs that built the middle class neighborhoods are now gone creating the moral decay in society.

The US population of 330 million consists of 30 million rich folks at the top, the wealthy elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the elite (they live in McMansions), that control the rigged US crony capitalism game. The remaining 300 million common people, the peons, the have-not's, at the bottom are struggling to pay their bills and survive each month. They are wiped out by the cost of gasoline and food.

The wealthy class, that were then further enriched by the Federal Reserve's money printing during the last two decades, are wondering why everyone is so glum (the Fed's easy money monetary stimulus for over 20 years flows into the stock market boosting prices higher making the wealthy class, that own stocks, more filthy rich, while one-half of Americans, that do not own a single share of stock, are shafted again receiving no benefit; the piggish shame is that the Fed knows this occurs and does it anyway since these corrupt public servants are paid off with lucrative speaking engagements, sponsored by the Wall Street banksters, once they leave office; are you starting to understand crony capitalism filth?).

Capitalism does not exist. It is only referenced in theoretical business text books but never exists in practice due to human greed (corruption) and non-transparency. Bailing out banks, not allowing businesses to go bankrupt, printing money, and federal, state and local governments handing out contracts to relatives and friends is not capitalism; it is the opposite of capitalism. It is called crony capitalism filth. Be glad it is in its last throes. What is the point when you realize capitalism does not exist? There is none. And remember, 300 is a bigger number than 30, a lot bigger.

Isn't it interesting that no matter what the government system is, be it communism, crony capitalism, socialism, Fascism, Marxism, dictatorships, etc..., there is always 3% to 12% of the country's elite that control the remainder of the population at the bottom. China is 90 million CCP dirtbags that control the 1.4 billion population that is 7% at the top and 93% Chinese folks at the bottom. Iran is in the news nowadays. That is 90 million people with 10 million controlling the other 80 million so that is 11% radical Islamist nutcases controlling the 89% of Iranian folks. America is 30 million at the top and 300 million at the bottom so that is 9% at the top controlling the 91% of have-not's at the bottom. This pattern repeats over and over around the world.

The governments and country systems continue until they are brought down by revolution, mainly led by the younger population, or they collapse due to to corruption. They can also collapse due to famine or disease. Inflation that drives food costs higher and creates riots and social unrest can also bring governments down that is how Chinese dynasties crumbled. People have to eat and they need water to drink. No government has ever stood the test of time. If that was the case, we would all be speaking ancient Sumerian and Akkadian. Even Rome, that stretched a few centuries, had about 40 different government structures within that time. All government systems fail eventually due to corruption or other reasons. The greed and corruption occurs since the thievery, grift and graft is hidden from prying eyes (non-transparency).

The beauty of America was the middle class. It was the fabric and glue that held the country together and found ways to bridge the gap between rich and poor and make it all work. Not anymore. That is gonzo. No one even talks like this anymore. There is only rich and poor now similar to the 1970's and 1980's but far more orders of magnitude worse. The computer age developed through the 1990's and 2000's helping to keep the crony capitalism system afloat (enough of the mass population was working and making money again). Then Fed Chairman Greenspan, that just croaked the other day, created the housing bubble that popped in 2007-2008 with his easy money policies. But that is in the rearview mirror in 2026. Human greed destroys everything over time as it has for 5,000 years; nothing will ever change that. Human greed knows no bounds.

Anyhoo, the spending by the wealthy helps prevent the US from falling into an overall recession even though manufacturing, housing and labor sectors remain weak and recessionary. The XLY is consumer discretionary spending. Mainly wealthy folks are buying mink coats, jewelry, fancy cars, taking airline trips, staying in ritzy hotels, wining and dining at fine food establishments, buying motorcycles, and boats, living the good life. The XLY behavior reflects the SPX. As utilities rise with traders growing cautious, the broad stock market is sold off especially the consumer discretionary stocks. If bad times are coming, even the wealthy will pull back on spending. Only the Lonely. Roy was great.

Conversely, the XLP is consumer staples spending. Regardless of good times or bad, everyone needs toilet paper to wipe their fat arses, soap, detergent, paper towels, diapers, hygiene products, etc... PG was always a consumer staples darling. Every time there was a whiff of a recession, everyone ran to buy PG. As would be expected, XLP moves the opposite of XLY. As stocks fall, traders seek safety in consumer staples. Healthcare holds up in bad times since everyone is sick because they lost their jobs.

Utilities take off higher last week without looking back. Consumer staples catch a bid in June but hesitate at the breakout level. The SPX breaks down, ditto consumer discretionary, but it is hesitating at its breakdown level. The market has to make a decision this week.

If utilities and stocks begin moving down together, that spells serious carnage ahead including a potential crash scenario. The bulls goosed the utes last week taking this scenario off the table but it can appear again especially if things begin falling apart. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; SPX Is in Short-Term Bear Market that Is Being Tested at 7418

The SPX comes up for the critical back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 the decider between a short-term bull market or short-term bear market. The previous chart from a few days ago explains this metric. Yesterday is a gap-down failure at the 200 at 7418. Price came up right away for a back test, that was successful for the bears, as price slumped over and remains soggy.

Today, price comes up for the back test at 7418 tapping on it a few minutes ago. It is time for the SPX to make a bounce or die decision. Flip that coin and call heads or tails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:05 AM EST: That did not take long. As the above was posted, the bulls punch up through the 200 at 7418 to a HOD at 7427. Woo-hoo. It's an orgy. Cough. Price comes back down to 7420. Watch it for the rest of the week. Bulls win above 7418. Bears win below 7418. The drama continues with price now at .... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer for it .... 7418. Copper remains weak and this creates a pall over the stock market.

Note Added 11:18 AM EST: SPX 7418. The Beat Goes On by Beady Eye.

Note Added 1:30 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX drops to 7349 with the 50-day MA at 7349. The back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 was successful for bears. Price came up and tested the 7418, and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is now at the 50-day MA at 7349 and must make a bounce or die decision from here. Things will get ugly if the 50 fails.

Note Added 4:39 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX falls through the 50-day MA support at 7349 to a LOD at 7336, but is goosed in the last 15 minutes by the market makers that do not want it to finish below the 50, and price ends at 7358. The drama will continue. MU pops +12% in the afterhours trading so chips will be pumped tomorrow and the SPX will likely float higher. Banks are happy after the crony stress test results are released and the banksters trip over each other to bump dividends higher. Copper weakness is a serious negative for the stock market that carries clout. VIX pops to 20.54 today only a dime away from creating major selling, but then it relaxes lower again, unwilling to leave its warm and cozy bull bed with an 18 handle. Utilities are pumped this week to help the bulls. The SPX may head higher again for another look at 7418 due to the Micron, chip, bankster and utility joy. Bulls win above 7418 and win big above the 20-day MA at 7473. Bears win big below 7349. Between 7350 and 7417 is noise. Price begins Thursday trading at 7358.

Note Added Friday Morning, 6/26/26, at 4:49 AM EST: The SPX pops higher yesterday to test the overhead resistance at 7418, and the bears spank it back down holding the resistance. Price then falls likely headed for the 50-day MA at 7357 and voila, the SPX falls to 7357, and then falls through to a LOD at 7323. The bulls kept battling and pushed price back above 7357 and that fight continues into the closing bell where the SPX ended at...... wait for it ...... no, you really should wait for it a bit longer ........ 7357. The S&P 500 is making a bounce or die decision at the 50. If the 7357 support fails, and then the low at 7323 is taken out, the downside target range of 6970-7120 is placed on the table. Bulls need to bust up through 7418 and then 7473 to start singing praises higher. The bulls want to sing Good News, Chariots A Comin', but the bears want the wheels to fall off the chariot. In the 1960's and 1970's, trickling into the early 1980's, the song was a standard in high school chorus class that was mandatory for all kids. It appears that schools only offer chorus class as an elective nowadays. Jackasses. It should be mandatory. Chorus class was not just about learning to sing. It teaches social skills. Everyone is embarrassed singing in front of their classmates and do not want to be made fun of, but what you find is that once the giggles stopped, it was fun to sing as one big uniform group, and it boosted everyone's confidence. Just another reason society is in the crapper nowadays. The exact kids that probably should be taking chorus class to boost their confidence and social interaction, are not. Parents, encourage your kids to take that elective chorus class especially if you have a shy introverted child.

Note Added Sunday, 6/28/26: The SPX ends last week at 7354 with the 50-day MA at 7363 acting as overhead resistance. Bulls need the SPX above 7363 pronto or they will fall apart. The drama continues.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; H&S; Fibonacci Retracements; Tech Stocks Sell Off after KOSPI (South Korea) Crashes -10%

 

Don’t you love the smell of napalm in the morning? ApocalypseNow. Pull back your units boys, we’re gonna light it up like a birthday cake. You know, folks, some day this stock market is going to end. That chopper sound echoes in your mind.

The Monday session was interesting with stocks popping and running higher after the Juneteenth holiday weekend when the bruthas were beatin’ on those skins. Oil prices drop on better news from the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz but instead of stocks rallying on the prospect of lower gasoline and fuel costs, they rolled over and sold off.

The chips are down, literally and figuratively. The tech stocks are causing the weakness in the broad stock market and trouble started in Asia overnight. The KOSPI (South Korea) crashes -10%. The problem there is that Samsung and SK Hynix make up almost the entire index; only two stocks! In addition, Kospi just allowed leveraged ETF’s to trade and this attracts hot money including leveraged retail traders (Joe Sixpack). It was fun on the way up but now that tech appears extended, the downside can be ugly. The NIKK (Japan) dumps -3.6%

Maybe the AI bubble is popping like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000? The SOX is down -6.3%. SMH -5.6%. XSD -5.1%. NVDA -2.6%. MRVL -7.3%. MU -10%. AMD -5.3%. CAT -4.5% (builds data centers). It is a tech bloodbath. IBM bucks the trend up +4% today. Favorite flavor SpaceX, SPCX, has crashed -34% in the last 4 days, after it printed the top, and the market makers are trying to hold the price at 150 and higher.

At the same time, Doctor Copper is puking on his shoes, so he is placed on a gurney and rolled into the emergency room to try and keep him breathing.

Adding more bad news on top of the pile of crony capitalism pig slop, the private credit problems continue due to their exposure to the software sector that is in the toilet bowl. Investors got into instruments for the long-term that place limits on withdraws. Now they want their money back faster because the markets look shaky but they cannot get the dough out fast enough. There is always some type of credit problem when a major stock market top occurs.

Technically, the above chart looks like a bowl of spaghetti. Price comes down to 7348 to test the 50-day MA support at 7340. The SPX has to make a bounce or die decision from here. The lower standard deviation band at 7299 is in play.

The blue lines show the Fibonacci retracements for the big rally that ran from April to the start of June. The 38% Fib retracement is 7121-ish and the 50% Fib is 6972.

The red lines show the H&S pattern in play. The 7621 is the head and the neckline is at 7370. That is a 251 point difference so subtracting that from the 7370 is 7119 a downside target if the 7370 gives way. You can also call the neckline at 73 hundo where that dip occurred a couple weeks ago. That targets 6979 if the 7300 fails. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why pretty Emily, the office administrative assistant, did not invite Keystone to the weekend party, the H&S targets and Fib retracement targets gel together at the 6970-7120 area. That appears a logical downside target to look for in the near term. The 100-day MA is 7051 and it typically acts as strong support when equities begin falling apart.

The red lines for the chart indicators are sloping lower (weak and bleak) except for the histogram and stochastics, however, price has not made a matching low compared to two weeks ago so it is a moot point for now. The RSI dips its toe into bear territory at sub 50%. Watch to see if the stochastics do the same. The MACD and money flow clearly show that they want to see some lower lows in price ahead on the daily basis.

The day is young. Of course, watch the chip and tech stocks but also pay attention to copper and volatility. For the bears to begin carnage, they will need copper to remain weak and getting weaker and the VIX to run above 20 and higher. Pay attention to the banking sector and the impact of the ongoing private credit withdrawal drama. Last week it was Palisades Park and hugging and kissing the pretty girls in the Tunnel of Love, but this week it is the End of the World as we know it. Look at how fantastic and fun the world was without those garbage smartphones. I feel fine. Everybody sing. It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:32 PM EST: The session ends with the SPX collapsing -1.4% to 7365. The LOD is 7347 and the 50-day MA is 7340. Price came down to within 7 points of testing the support at the 50-day. Since price is in the neighborhood, you would expect it to come down to kiss the 50 at 7340 to show it respect, and then make a bounce or die decision from 7340. The daily chart remains weak and bleak so a failure at the 50 would be expected. King Donnie Chumpski may cheerlead stocks overnight so that is always on the table. The SPX weekly chart is agreeable to lower lows on the weekly basis and key support is at the 20-wk MA at 7067 another critical support number that sits in that 6970-7120 target area if the wheels start falling off the wagon. Bears need the VIX above 20.68 if they want to create downside carnage to the 6970-7120 area. If stocks remain soggy and sell off, but the VIX remains below 20.68, the bears got nothing and stocks will recover and rally. If VIX pops above 21 and UTIL drops below 1116, stocks may crash. Bulls need stronger copper to stop the slide lower in equities. The NDX (Nazzy 100) plummets -3.3% today and the dirty SOX experiences a mini-crash off the bigtime top down -7.9%. MU and SNDK take the pipe each crashing more than -13%. Now the ball is handed back to Asia to see if they want to continue a cascading worldwide mini-crash in tech and AI-related stocks. All eyes will be on the KOSPI. CRBS collapses -9% in the afterhours trading that will be an ugly handoff to Asia. Let's call Oliver's Army to help us out.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/24/26, at 1:30 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX drops to 7349 with the 50-day MA at 7349. The back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 was successful for bears. Price came up and tested the 7418, and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is now at the 50-day MA at 7349 and must make a bounce or die decision from here. Things will get ugly if the 50 fails.

Note Added 4:39 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies, it failed. The SPX falls through the 50-day MA support at 7349 to a LOD at 7336, but is goosed in the last 15 minutes by the market makers that do not want it to finish below the 50, and price ends at 7358. The drama will continue. MU pops +12% in the afterhours trading so chips will be pumped tomorrow and the SPX will likely float higher. Banks are happy after the crony stress test results are released and the banksters trip over each other to bump dividends higher. Copper weakness is a serious negative for the stock market that carries clout. VIX pops to 20.54 today only a dime away from creating major selling, but then it relaxes lower again, unwilling to leave its warm and cozy bull bed with an 18 handle. Utilities are pumped this week to help the bulls. The SPX may head higher again for another look at 7418 due to the Micron, chip, bankster and utility joy. Bulls win above 7418 and win big above the 20-day MA at 7473. Bears win big below 7349. Between 7350 and 7417 is noise. Price begins Thursday trading at 7358.

Note Added Friday Morning, 6/26/26, at 4:49 AM EST: The SPX pops higher yesterday to test the overhead resistance at 7418, and the bears spank it back down holding the resistance. Price then falls likely headed for the 50-day MA at 7357 and voila, the SPX falls to 7357, and then falls through to a LOD at 7323. The bulls kept battling and pushed price back above 7357 and that fight continues into the closing bell where the SPX ended at...... wait for it ...... no, you really should wait for it a bit longer ........ 7357. The S&P 500 is making a bounce or die decision at the 50. If the 7357 support fails, and then the low at 7323 is taken out, the downside target range of 6970-7120 is placed on the table. Bulls need to bust up through 7418 and then 7473 to start singing praises higher. The bulls want to sing Good News, Chariots A Comin', but the bears want the wheels to fall off the chariot. In the 1960's and 1970's, trickling into the early 1980's, the song was a standard in high school chorus class that was mandatory for all kids. It appears that schools only offer chorus class as an elective nowadays. Jackasses. It should be mandatory. Chorus class was not just about learning to sing. It teaches social skills. Everyone is embarrassed singing in front of their classmates and do not want to be made fun of, but what you find is that once the giggles stopped, it was fun to sing as one big uniform group, and it boosted everyone's confidence. Just another reason society is in the crapper nowadays. The exact kids that probably should be taking chorus class to boost their confidence and social interaction, are not. Parents, encourage your kids to take that elective chorus class especially if you have a shy introverted child.

Note Added Sunday, 6/28/26: The SPX ends last week at 7354 with the 50-day MA at 7363 acting as overhead resistance. Bulls need the SPX above 7363 pronto or they will fall apart. The drama continues.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies (Elon Musk) Daily Chart; SpaceX Is a Rocket Ride from 150 to 226 but then It Falls Back to Earth

Last week, SpaceX was the girl at the party that everyone wanted to dance with. This week she is a wallflower. A man was very shy because he had a wooden eye. It was time for the big community dance so he had hoped he could meet a nice girl. At the dance, he saw a young lady across the room that was sitting alone. She had a big nose. It was so big that if you stuffed it with nickels, you would be a millionaire. Nonetheless, he mustered up courage and walked over to the young lady. In a stuttering voice he asked, "Would you like to dance?" She exclaimed, "Would I! Would I!" He quickly answered, "Big nose! Big nose!"

SPCX is not the favorite flavor this week; it is a dud. The rocket ship took off for the moon on 6/12/26 opening at 150 on the dot above the 135 base price. Everything was groovy all the way to 226 on 6/16/26 last Tuesday. After that, the space ship falls back to Earth trading in the premarket right now at 150 the opening price on 6/12/26. From 226 to 150 is a -34% crash in SPCX in the last 4 trading days. $600 billion in market value is vaporized.

149.34 is its low price so watch that number closely going forward. There is likely far more pain if that fails and perhaps a test of 135. That would be catastrophic if it failed. The market makers may be obligated to try and hold 150 so the banks may be buying the dud today.

SpaceX is a company that loses money. Any one buying it is buying Elon's hopes and dreams whether they understand this or not. As they say in the Bronx, "Good luck wit dat." If you keep your feet on the ground, terra firma, SPCX is probably worth about $65 so it sits at about double what it is actually worth.

You wonder if the SPCX ticker will be confused with SPCE that is Virgin Galactic when traders go to buy or sell. Years ago, Ford Motor company, that is symbol F, would be confused with a company that had the ticker FORD. There is a double-leveraged (2x) ETF for SPCX named SPCH. It flamed out dropping from 28 to 12 in the last 4 days. If you got caught up in the SpaceX hype and bot last week, you lost one-half and more of your money this week; you are wearing a barrel crying in your beerski.

Good luck to SpaceX but there is a tough road ahead. Space Oddity. Ground control to Major Tom. Take your protein pills and put your helmet on. Ground control to Major Tom. Your circuit's dead, there's something wrong. Can you hear me Major Tom? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:54 AM EST: SPCX collapses to 147.70. A global tech selloff started in Asia last night and is cascading around the world. There is not enough money available going forward to push all the tech garbage higher. Perhaps it is a dotcom bubble redux; is the AI bubble bursting?.

Note Added 5:56 AM EST: SPCX is at 150.00 on the dot. The banks involved in the IPO are likely trying to hold the line at 150.

Note Added 10:24 AM EST: SPCX is at 154. No surprise.

Note Added 5:04 PM EST: SPCX is at 156. The space bulls are reinforcing the 150 and 135 support levels. Spaceballs. May the Schwartz be with you.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/24/26, at 5:01 PM EST: SPCX is at 154 trading flat printing a LOD at 150.

UTIL (or DJU) Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Dictate the Path Forward for the Stock Market

Utilities, UTIL or DJU, are a key driver of US stock market direction as the new week of trading begins after the Summer Solstice yesterday. Keystone's large solar calendar off to the side of the patio registers the longest day (shortest night) of the year yesterday. The shortest day (longest night) of the year is December 20th or 21st six months from now at the Winter Solstice. When the plasma wave from a solar flare fries the electronics on Earth, Keystone can keep time for everyone with the solar calendar like the ancients. Anyhoo, utes are the subject at hand.

The two key metrics are the closing price from 15 weeks ago that determines the weekly trend that in turn impacts the stock market, and the 50-week MA at 1116 that is a trap-door for stocks.

Right now, the bull/bear lines in the sand are 1180.42 and 1116.48. Price begins at 1120.43 creating negativity in equities because it is below 1180 but also creating positivity because it is above 1116. Obviously, bulls win bigtime if utilities continue higher but bears are back in business for more downside with stocks if the 1116 fails.

For next week, that transitions into July trading, the 1180.42 is meaningless and replaced with the blue circle at 1121.89 a much easier bridge to cross for the bulls with price at 1120 now. Thus, the bears better growl this week or the bulls may experience success through the July 4th holiday. Note, however, that for July, the bulls must be at or above the 1150 area represented by the purple, orange and grey circles. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Summer Solstice party at Stonehenge, the bulls need utilities to rally bigtime now and going forward during July to stave off ugliness in the stock market.

What does all that mumbo jumbo mean? To start this week, the bulls will keep the stock market buoyant with UTIL above 1116. Bulls will win going forward if UTIL remains above 1116 moving higher. If UTIL finishes the week above 1122, it is a rosy path ahead for stocks.

Bears need to push UTIL below 1116 immediately to provide a negative path ahead for equities. Bears must finish the week with UTIL below 1116 if they want to wreak havoc in the stock market going forward. Now you know what to watch. Easy-peasy. Keep in mind that if UTIL starts falling apart, and loses 11 hundo heading lower, the US stock market will likely crash going forward. XLU is trading down -0.5% in the premarket so the bears may want to play today. S&P futures are flat to lower about 3 hours in front of the cash open.

The Keybot the Quant trading robot remains short but is champing at the bit to go long the last several days. Utilities will likely dictate the path forward for the quant. Time to wake up this crowd with a rock and roll Bohemian vibe. Bohemian Like You by the Dandy Warhols. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:24 PM EST: The bulls came to play knowing they must defend 1116 with all their might, and they did, out of the gate and for the whole session. When price dropped, the bulls started pumping to keep UTIL buoyant and above 1122 already thinking about next week. Nothing has changed. Price is 1127 creating bearishness below 1180 but also creating bullishness above 1116. Stocks were soggy today but could not make any headway south because volatility remains relaxed and UTIL remains above 1116 refusing to fail and open the trap-door. Well, tomorrow is another day so this drama continues. Fed Chairman Greenspan died at 100 from Parkinson's. He created the housing bubble trouble with crony easy money policies but could never bring himself to admit it. Keystone worked with a guy many years ago his name was Jim Parkinson. Sadly, he got Parkinson's. Tragically, he had a wife and five kids. Instead of Jim Parkinson, he probably wishes his name was Jim Lottery. 

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/24/26, at 5:01 PM EST: UTIL is pumped to 1149. Of course, the bulls know the importance of the utilities. If a big selloff occurs in equities, the bulls hope they can minimize the downside damage with higher utes.