SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Neggie D Spankdown in Progress

There's the negative divergence smackdown Keystone talked about the last couple weeks. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading that is the art, and science, of calling tops and bottoms. The bulls extended the top with AI and chip euphoria and King Donnie Trumpski happy talk that the Iran War is over, as both sides continue shooting at each other. The orange-headed idiot says in a cease fire in the Middle East, both sides typically continue exchanging fire. He says these stupid moronic statements since he is surrounded by sycophants that will never directly tell him that what he is saying is idiot talk that destroys his credibility.

There are two syndromes afflicting Americans right now with the level-headed independent observers stuck in the middle; TDS and TSS. TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome, receives the most attention since Donnie owns the bully pulpit and highlights how the democrat-run media (CNN, MSNOW, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...) misrepresents, and outright lies, about his policies and comments. No matter what Trumpski does, the TDS folks do not like him and will not give him credit. Donnie cheerleaders provide the cancer analogy where if Donnie found a cure for the deadly disease, the TDS-afflicted folks will give credit to someone else or complain that he did not find the cure fast enough.

On the other side of the sick mental spectrum is TSS, Trump Sycophant Syndrome. The TSS-afflicted people will praise and support the orange head no matter what he says or does. Donnie Chump famously said, paraphrasing, that he can walk onto Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and his sycophants will still lick his shoes and support him. He is exactly correct. The TSS people loyally follow the republican-run media (Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart, AM talk radio, New York Post, etc...) that feeds the Trump Sycophant Syndrome. Most TSS-afflicted folks cannot see what is going on in the United States because their head is up his orange flabby butt or they are face down licking his wingtips.

Such is the state of corrupt America, land of the soulless compromised republocrats and demopublicans, that created a country of have's and have-not's. Young folks are smart choosing to not be associated with either corrupt political party. Why would you want that stink on yourself and your life? The rich took all the money over the last six decades. 30 million Americans at the top control and dictate life's circumstances to the 300 million peons at the bottom. The American Dream is now routinely mocked and called the American Joke. It is called crony capitalism filth in its final throes. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business text books because of human greed. It is easy to understand but people have a hard time accepting truth.

Anyhoo, the top occurs due to the neggie d, oversold conditions and rising wedge pattern that formed in the final days. The last 7 trading days show 6 days where the candlestick patterns signaled a reversal at hand with a couple of shooting stars, a la Bad Company, a hanging man, a la The Hangman's Song, and three doji's. Price sliced down through the 20-day MA at 7480 like a hot knife through butter. This is also the middle band touch after price topped out at the upper band. The lower band at 7320 is in play.

The two selling days out of the last three are distribution days where the smart money sloughed off shares to the dumb money such as Joe Retail, Sammy Sixpack, Carmelita Bagholder and Savita Sucka. They, like some of you reading this, jumped into the stock market at SPX 7.5K and higher caught up in the hype taking the shares off the institutions' hands that were sneaking out the back door. Now you are holding a bag of sh*t at 7384 wondering what happened since you just put an entire paycheck into the stock market well above 7500. Isn't it obvious? You are the bigger fool. You were mogged.

So down she goes with the RSI crossing into bear territory below 50%. Watch the stochastics to see if they do the same in the week ahead. The chart indicators are weak and bleak except for money flow that is flat and positively diverged. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, it is likely going to bottom with possie d tomorrow afternoon or Tuesday. This behavior in the hourly time frame will want to join the money flow positivity above, in the daily time frame, to create a recovery bounce, probably back up to back kiss the 20-day MA at 7480. This set-up reflects the fact that dip-buyers are likely champing at the bit to buy long tomorrow and in the week ahead thinking they have a good entry point. Keep lining yourselves up for slaughter, sucka's.

The SPX topped out due to the overextension of price above the 20-day MA above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200, so a mean reversion lower was desperately needed. The bottom in the daily time frame will not occur until positive divergence forms across all indicators, or, if King Donnie Chumpski spews more happy talk to try and goose markets. The 7320 is a downside target as well as the 50-day MA at 7156 and rising, and the 100-day MA at 6995, that often serves as a resting spot when the stock market begins a downside run.

The Aroon makes you laugh. It tells you that the mini Black Friday was nothing from the standpoint of instilling fear or panic. No one is worried at all. The bulls remains strongly bullish (green line) and the bears have given up all hope of going short, despite the selloff, and instead join the bulls in believing that stocks will go up forever. The sentiment remains euphorically bullish so stocks likely have a long way down to fall.

The big buy volume candle from 6 days ago was the Friday pump by Donnie Chump professing that an Iran War deal was guaranteed; that lie is now over a week old. Price is below where that lie pumped the stock market hinting that traders and investors are likely starting to put less stock in what the orange head says. No doubt, the bloviating carnival clown will spew happy talk this afternoon to try and goose the S&P futures higher that begin trading at 6 PM EST.

This is not your grandfather's stock market. Everything got stranger over the years especially after the obscene Federal Reserve money printing (to enrich America's wealthy class) went into high gear over the last 25 years. The chart action on Monday will tell a lot but the daily time frame wants more lower price lows for the S&P 500 going forward although the dip-buyers may try to catch the falling knife say, by mid-week, unless Donnie tries to pump equities before that with happy Iran War talk. Conversely, any negative news out of the Middle East will likely send oil higher and exacerbate the stock market selloff.  The First Cut Is the Deepest. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Stock Market Enters Short-Term Bear Market Unless the Bulls Can Fight Back Next Week

One of Keystone's fave stock market metrics is the SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross. What did he say? What'd I Say. Baby, shake that thing. During the February/March swoon, the S&P 500 was below the 200 EMA signaling an ongoing short-term bear market with pain and misery. The bottom was placed on 3/31/26.

The SPX gaps above the 200 EMA in early April as if it was not even there. It was off to the races for stocks with a short-term bull market just beginning. The party continues through April and May. Now it is June, and there is a swoon. The SPX receives the neggie d spankdown as previously explained and forecasted to 7384 and price falls through the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7389.

The S&P 500 begins next week at 7384 forecasting a short-term bear market ahead but you want to see a couple days of confirmation to make sure. Watch it closely. The bulls have to show up Monday morning with a strong game plan ready to fight back, otherwise, they may fold like your cheap suit.

Bulls win and will stave off the bears for another day if they can send the SPX above 7389 and moving higher.

Bulls are toast going forward if the SPX remains below 7389 trending lower. It is D-Day (6-6-44) so we need The Swing Dolls to sing and celebrate the armed forces. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Keystone Speculator's Labor Market (Jobs) Indicator; US REMAINS IN A LABOR RECESSION FOR 2 YEARS AND 9 MONTHS BUT TEETERING ON VERGE OF STARTING A LABOR RECOVERY

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 33 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; 2 YEARS AND 9 MONTHS!! ALMOST 3 YEARS!

The US Monthly Jobs Report on Friday, 6/5/26, was 172K jobs making for happy faces. Considering that number, surely the unemployment rate slips to 4.2% or lower and the labor recovery should begin. Nope. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. It is odd since a couple hundred thousand jobs were reported.

The two government shutdowns messed-up the economic data that likely still needs a couple months or so to line out properly. All the job growth is in one sector; healthcare. Humorously, but also empathetically, people are probably worried about their future to the point that is it creating health problems.

Television pundits, wearing custom-tailored $4K Armani suits, proclaim that about 50K jobs are needed to replace those leaving the workforce but the number is likely larger and closer to 100K. The jobs number itself is bogus since the yearly revision in spring typically knocks off 80K jobs per month. The unemployment rate is the key metric to judge if a labor recession or labor recovery is at play.

Ahead of yesterday's job data, the chart above identified a 4.3% rate as continuing the labor recession, by a hair, while a 4.2% rate would begin a labor market recovery (verifying a stronger jobs picture that some folks are talking about). The 4.3% rate is cast in stone yesterday so the labor recession continues. For the next jobs report in early July, the same scenario is in place. A 4.3% or higher rate continues the labor recession. A 4.2% or lower rate would begin a labor market recovery.

The country has also been in a housing recession and manufacturing recession in addition to the labor recession but an overall US recession is nowhere to be seen, like Godot. The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) occurs because consumer spending by the wealthy Americans, that benefited from the 15 years of Fed money-printing and government stimulus, remains robust, and the AI hype and euphoria, the chip orgy, also delayed, and perhaps stopped, the overall US recession.

After the last couple years and more of economic slowness (manufacturing, housing and labor recessions), the recent manufacturing data is showing signs of life and recovery. The housing recession ended in February but Keystone has been waiting for more data (6/16/26) to confirm the US housing recovery now in progress. The housing recession started in December 2022 and ends February 2026, as long as the BLS does not throw a curve ball. The US housing recession ran for 3 years and 2 months. The housing recovery is now 4 months along and will be confirmed with data on Tuesday.

How can this be? For many decades, if America is in a labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, it is guaranteed to be in an overall US economic recession. Not now. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype sends stocks to the moon. The easy money provided by the Fed and Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic creates inflation and jobs galore. People could not spend the free money fast enough, like pigs feeding at the trough. Employers begged for workers during 2022-2024 but not so much anymore.

The unemployment rate popped to 4.3% in August 2024, almost two years  ago, and the thinking was that it would take a big jump higher as typically occurs once a recession takes root. Alas, instead, the blue line shows the rate bumping along sideways.

The BLS data collection and releases are messed-up due to the government shutdown in the Fall and early this year. For the next US Monthly Jobs Report on 7/2/26, released on a Thursday due to the July 4th holiday weekend, as mentioned above, if the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% or higher, the labor recession continues, but, if the rate falls to 4.2% or lower, the labor recovery begins verifying a stronger jobs picture going forward. Now you know what to watch on Thursday, July 2, as the Independence Day festivities and weekend will begin.

King Donnie Chumpski chased away pretty Martina that will not sing Independence Day at the lame Whitehouse event that emphasizes Donnie's b-day instead of the country's. That's a shame. Martina McBride was electric with the Boston Pops years ago. The song is written by Gretchen Peters and is actually about child and spousal abuse. Martina had command of the performance that evening and knew she hit the ball out of the park; some nights are like that. The song became the theme song for the United States after the 9-11 terrorist attacks. The orange headed idiot says Martina is a no-talent bum. What do you think? Who would you rather be with?

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Are a Bad Omen and Signal Major Trouble Forward Unless the 50-Week MA at 1114 Is Regained

Utilities, banks and retail stocks are all that matter to stock market direction currently. Obviously, the bears need weakness in these sectors while the bulls hope for strength. UTIL, or DJU, came up to back kiss the critical 50-wk MA at 1113-1114 yesterday, and it was successful for the utility bears since price then collapsed back down to 1095. This behavior is a nasty omen for the stock market ahead if it holds. Watch that 1113-1114 like a hawk today and tomorrow since the bull's fate forward rests on that bull/bear line in the sand.

As explained many times, the 50-wk MA and the closing price from 15 weeks ago, that determines the weekly utility trend, are the two key metrics to study. Counting back 15 weeks is the light blue circle and the closing price 15 weeks ago was 1162. Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Memorial Day parade and after party, utilities are in failure mode below the 50-wk MA and in a weekly downtrend.

Now the fun begins. Going into the February/March selloff, that Keystone explained as the negative divergence formed on the charts, and during the initial drop in stocks, the crash scenario was on the table but taken off because of the big spike higher in utes (green box). Stocks faltered in Feb/Mar so traders and investors sought the perceived safety of utilities. The AI buildout of data centers is the main driver of the utility sector orgy.

As stocks will roll over lower again due to neggie d and the uber complacency and fearlessness in the broad market, an all-out crash scenario is back on the table. With utes below the two key metrics and sub 1100, the door is wide open for a substantive fall in equities (a -10% to -50%, or more, drop in stocks over the coming months). This was forecasted for the Feb/Mar swoon but taken off the table once utes spiked higher (green box) and that pullback for the broad stock indexes was -7% to -10%, no biggie, and the recovery during April and May, now into June, is record-setting into the current all-time highs for the SPX.

To maintain the weekly trend lower for utes, and keep the crash profile on the table, the bears must take full advantage of the open window. Note that all the circled closes for weeks ago (colored circles) are above 1160. Thus, the bears have a three-week window to growl and create an ugliness in the stock market that would be historic.

As long as UTIL remains below the 50-wk MA at 1113-1114, a crash scenario is on the table for the broad stock market going forward. Kitty started to peer out from under the bed but saw the utility chart and is now nowhere to be found. Walk carefully through the minefield. Looking back can provide a path forward. Pictures of You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6/5/26 at 1:51 PM EST: UTIL is battling at the critical 1113.83 line in the sand that has near-term and long-term effects on the stock market. Price keeps coming up to test 1114 and is spanked back. Can the bulls achieve UTIL 1114 that will help stabilize the stock market? Equities are taking the pipe today with a mini Black Friday. It is Friday and traders are not in love with stocks. Friday I'm in Love by The Cure.

Note Added 6/5/26 at 6:29 PM EST: UTIL pops above 1114 after the prior message but it did not help the bulls. Stocks continued lower and then utes fell on their sword and UTIL drops to 1110 creating mayhem into the closing bell. The battle continues on Monday. The outcome will tell you if the stock market selloff will get ugly going forward, or just become a run of the mill pullback. Today is a mini Black Friday. The SPX collapses to 7384.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short at munchtime today at SPX 7559. It is about time since it has been threatening for the last couple weeks. Banks and retail stocks failed today although retail stocks stage a late-day comeback only to see the retail god, PVH, take the pipe in the afterhours market crashing -22%. Utilities tried to recover today but failed a very bad omen for the stock market. Watch your wallet.

Keybot the Quant

Note Added 6/5/26 at 6:33 PM EST: It is a mini Black Friday. The SPX collapses to 7384.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; SIGNIFICANT AND HISTORIC STOCK MARKET TOP AT HAND

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue signaling a historic stock market top at hand due to the rampant complacency, fearlessness, euphoric bullishness, and belief that stocks will never go down again (Irving Fisher redux). Get out while you still can, otherwise, you will become cannon fodder. Kitty is very scared and hiding under the bed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6/5/26 at 6:33 PM EST: It is a mini Black Friday. The SPX collapses to 7384.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Negative Divergence; Double Top or M Top; Shooting Star; Potential Island Reversal

The SPX daily chart continues to play out with negative divergence as previously explained. She was all set to roll over starting the week of 5/11/26 but King Donnie Chumpski pumped equities with happy Iran War talk. That took the SPX up to the all-time high at 7517.12 and all-time closing high at 7473.47 on Thursday, 5/14/26.

Some of the neggie d remained, but the happy talk bolstered the MACD line to a slightly higher high (more gas was put in the tank) and wanted price to come back up once more. Price drops for three days, then recovers for 3 days to Friday's shooting star candlestick. No surprise there because Donnie poured some extra fuel into the MACD. Now, with price at matching highs, but new all-time highs were not attained on Friday, the chart indicators can be assessed again and the red lines show that all are in neggie d so the top is in again.

Humorously, the only thing that can save it from its technical fate is more happy talk like mid-month and right on cue, King Donnie, donning his paper Burger King hat that he received in a happy meal, proclaims that an agreement is reached with the Iran War. US stocks reopen for trading on Tuesday due to the holiday and the happy talk may once again delay the top by a few days. Or, it may be a sell the news event.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. Price has made it up and over 7.5K a couple times. Keystone received a "SPX 7.5K" hat but on the walk home a bird sh*t on it so it was thrown in the garbage. Nonetheless, a move up and over 7480 opens the door to the 7520 level. A move above 7478 opens the door to 7482. If traders buy into the Iran War happy talk, the SPX may pop to 7520-7540, even the top band again at 7565 but that should be short-lived and only serve to delay the top on the daily basis by a day or few again.

After Trumpski said there was a deal with the Iran War, it was then labeled as a framework for a deal. Oh my, the tangled web the orange head weaves. Maybe it is a framework of a potential deal that may result in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations and a secondary framework that can lay the groundwork for a possible overall deal that may...... what a bunch of dribble. Donnie screwed the pooch in Iran teaching the radical Islamist terrorist nutcases that they can control the Strait of Hormuz anytime they like. Donnie's frameworks, deals, agreements, negotiations, bloviations, belching, and BS sounds like Fauci during the COVID-19 pandemic thinking, considering, the idea of pondering the thought of ..... as parodied by Tyler Fischer.

If SPX price runs higher on happy Iran War talk, simply watch the red lines for the indicators to see if any of them overtake the prior highs to negate the neggie d. If not, the neggie d remains and a spankdown of stocks will begin on the daily basis. If so, the top will only be delayed by a few days until neggie d is shown across all indicators again.

The Friday candlestick is a shooting star. Johnny was a schoolboy, when he heard his first Beatles song, don't you know that you are a shooting star? Don't, don't you know? The shooting star typically indicates that a reversal is on tap. Shooting Star by Bad Company.

The SPX is showing a double top or M top pattern. The orange circles show some of the gaps that will need filled on the way down. That gap at 6600-6740 is big enough to drive a bus through it. That gap higher in early April places the S&P 500 on an island above 6740. When price comes back down to Earth going forward, price may fill that gap, or, price may come down to 6740, and then gap back down through that gap to 6600 creating an island reversal pattern but this is for another day.

The ADX shows that the last strong trend was on the downside and it ended in early April. Despite the all-time record highs, the ADX says the upside is NOT a strong trend higher. In fact the ADX is even showing negative divergence as price prints the matching highs. The Aroon green line shows that nearly all the bulls remain firmly bullish on stocks and expect more new highs and the red line shows that nearly all the bears also think the stock market will go up forever. The rampant complacency, fearlessness and bullish euphoria is also verified by the low put/calls.

The last three up days show volume trailing off. Not only that, the volumes are below the prior three selling volume days, and volume is not exceeding the volume on the all-time record day. Some traders say 'volume is validity' and if this is true, a lot more bulls better show up with fistfuls of money on Tuesday.

The daily chart is toast, resetting after the Donnie Iran War hype stick-saved the downside, but it only served to delay the top. If more Donnie hype occurs over the next couple days, that could delay the top by a few days again, otherwise, it would be a sell the news event and allow the neggie d to kick in the downside with force.

Celebrate Memorial Day. Taps. There are jackasses in America that espouse the 'white privilege' garbage. Look at all those white tombstones that go on forever in all directions at Arlington. There's your white privilege, you b*stards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/26/26, at 5:17 AM EST: The long weekend party, albeit somber honoring those that died for the country, is over and time for the working stiffs to get back to the office and shops. The barbecue ashes are cold, the cats are licking the paper plates in the overturned trash can, and empty red Solo cups are lying in the yard. The King Donnie baby games continue. A deal with Iran was imminent on Saturday and then not so much on Sunday; same-o stuff. Iran is stuffing Donnie playing the same negotiating game. The Islamist radicals said that Trumpski is delusional about the deal and nothing is imminent. Trump then announces that the deal may take a few days acting as if he is in control and running the show. Iran is eating his lunch. The US now fires on the Iranian coast at the Strait of Hormuz while touting a deal. It is nonsense and chump stuff. King Donnie Chumpski screwed the pooch with Iran and is desperate to find a way out of the quagmire as US gasoline prices rise. S&P futures are up +40 as traders await more tweets from Donnie that is in over his orange head. Watch the utilities and the banks. Iran is Hotel California. You can check-in, and start a war, but you can never leave.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/27/26, at 6:15 AM EST: The bulls create new stock market highs as chips continue rallying and Donnie Chump keeps talking about a rosy end to his Iran War. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7539.09 and new all-time closing high at 7519.12 on Tuesday, 5/26/26. Since a matching or higher price high occurs, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d and negative divergence remains in place forecasting a top in the daily basis and a multi-day drop should begin. Donnie needs to increase the happy talk to create another stick-save. Another shooting star candlestick prints yesterday. The SPX 2-hour chart is in negative divergence agreeing with the daily chart that a technical near-term top is now. S&P futures, however, are up +25 points painting a happy picture for today. The short term charts want a pullback but the King Donnie Chumpski happy talk and the ongoing chip frenzy staves off the bears. Something should break today. The investment banks continue raising their SPX targets above 8K. The ghost of Irving Fisher hovers above Wall Street proclaiming that stocks are at a permanently-high plateau and will never drop below SPX 7.5K ever again. The party continues, the girls are dancing, and the music plays on. What Is Love by Haddaway.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 5/27/26, at 6:00 PM  EST: The trading session is up, down, down up, just like the blues master Jimmy Reed tune, Baby What You Want Me to Do. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The SPX finishes with a new all-time closing high at 7520.36, satisfying Keystone's 80/20 Rule, but yesterday's all-time record high at 7539.09 remains in place. A hanging man candlestick prints today typically signaling that a bearish reversal should start, just like the shooting stars for the last two days. The bullish momo is fading. The Hangman's Song. The SPX daily and 2-hour charts are cooked with neggie d so downside is expected going forward, unless King Donnie Chumpski can come up with some happy talk overnight. Conversely, if negative news hits the tape overnight, that will kick-in the negative divergence with vengeance. Watch the MACD on the SPX monthly chart as previously posted. There are only 2 trading days remaining in May and the bulls are trying to squeeze out a slightly higher MACD line to extend the long-term stock market top (for months and years ahead) for a month or two. At the end of April, the SPX monthly chart was in negative divergence calling for the long-term top and multi-months, maybe a couple years and more, of downside to begin. It is odd and not expected to see the following month, now, May, come up again, but it has on the chip frenzy and Donnie happy talk. There is a lot riding on the next 2 days. The MACD line on the monthly is a hair higher than the prior nosebleed high right now but remember, it is a work in progress and not cast in concrete until Friday at 4 PM EST. Bears need the MACD to continue showing neggie d to call the top, like a month ago, and allow the multi-month spankdown to begin. Otherwise, the slightly higher MACD line will likely create a down month for June, but back up in July when the MACD will go neggie d again calling the long-term top. This is atypicay behavior so you just roll along with what you got. The next 2 days may be dramatic. The bulls want to hang on to what they got. Let's Hang On. In the 70's, you could not turn on the AM radio without hearing Frankie Valli and The Four Seasons.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/29/26, at 5:57 AM EST: Today is the last trading day of May that is a big up month gaining +5% depending on today's outcome. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7568.72 and new all-time closing high at 7563.63 yesterday, 5/28/26. The month had a dip in the middle but has been mainly up all the way. Typically, when a month is up strongly, the last few days will tend to be weak. For May it is up and away with record highs so it will be interesting to see if today is down simply due to exhaustion. S&P futures are up +10 points a tame follow-through considering Donnie's stick-save yesterday with the US and Iran saying a deal is at hand, er, a framework of a deal that may potentially, possibly, perhaps lead to a future deal. The WTIC crude oil level of 88-92 is interesting and the pivot from this range will impact stocks (oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up). The so-called US-Iran deal may be a sell the news event. Iran is now saying the text of the deal is not finalized. Well, that does not sound like a deal if nothing is written on paper. The daily and 2-hour charts remain negatively diverged wanting a top to occur now but King Donnie Chumpski knows how to string it along and create buoyant bumps of happiness with well chosen Iran War sound bites. The market makers may want to keep the party going through today so the MACD prints a higher high on the May monthly chart that MAY extend THE long-term top by a few weeks (they hope; it may not since the MACD is at nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down). You are watching a major historical top occur in real-time. How cool is that? The Keybot the Quant robot remains long so it will be interesting to see when the quant flips short. Retail stocks were sick creating negativity until yearnings this week and now they are rallying bigtime creating market joy. However, the stock market is flirting with disaster, like dealing with those Brooklyn girls, some are the thorns without the rose, be careful of them in the dark, as Tom Waits sings Downtown Train, if the utilities fail. If DJU, or UTIL, drops below 1112, there will be Hell to pay. Price begins at 1116 only 4 bucks away from a trap-door opening for the stock market. Ditto the banksters. Retail stocks may have popped but the banks may be rolling over and dying. If XLF loses 51.27, exactly where it closed at yesterday, that spells trouble ahead for the stock market. Price closed at the exact 51.27 price the robot called out ahead of time. In the premarket, XLF is up a smidge to 51.34. The bulls are sweating, despite the record highs, and know what they have to do to keep the charade going. Watch to see if utes and banks are pumped today, that means a happy finish to May into the weekend, but a bad day for both likely nails the stock market top in the near-term. Of course, Donnie's Iran War remains in the mix.

Note Added Saturday, 5/30/26: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7599.38, almost 7.6K, and new all-time closing high at 7580.06. The intraday reversal was caused by the utilities failing. DJU, or UTIL, falls though the critical 1112 a very bad omen going forward. Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The put/call ratios drop to lower multi-year lows flashing lights and sounding sirens that traders and investors are far too complacent, fearless, and euphorically bullish. The tech Kool-Aid is tasty like the lips of a beautiful woman. The last four of five candlesticks on the daily chart are two shooting starts, a hangman and a doji all reversal signals. The SPX monthly chart does squeeze out the tiniest higher high on the MACD (nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down) so the bulls are trying to extend the top with all their might, but they will fail going forward. The near term top is at hand right now and the long-term top (for the coming months and perhaps years forward) is either right now, or will be within a few short days or weeks due to the MACD on the monthly. WTIC crude oil sits at 88 in the 88-92 range awaiting more bloviations and rhetoric from King Donnie Chump, the conflicted so-called deal maker and grifter-in-chief. Get out of the stock market and save yourself, folks. There is not much more time remaining. Maybe a Black Monday? That would be fun.

Note Added 6/5/26 at 6:35 PM EST: It is a mini Black Friday. The SPX collapses to 7384.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Is Lowest in History

US consumer sentiment is at 44.8 the lowest in history (data started in the 1960's). It is not surprising since there is a joint relationship between gasoline prices and consumer sentiment for decades. The rising gasoline prices are pounded into the human mind since people see the gas station signs on every street corner. Then they fill up their tank and are punched in the face. Consumers then get the mindset that they cannot spend frivolously and must instead tighten the purse strings. The high gasoline prices creates negative sentiment and viola, it shows up in the historic number released by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

When Americans see prices falling at the pump, the opposite mindset occurs. Sine it costs less to fill the tank, that is more money to spend, or save, and things are looking rosy. Consumer sentiment rises and reflects a healthy economy and happy attitudes.

America is the land of the have's and have-not's. This is why consumer spending is holding up. In years gone by, the stock market would already be flushed down the toilet, but the obscene money printing by the Federal Reserve for over 20 years, and non-stop fiscal spending by the US government, including COVID-19 stimulus, has made the wealthy class rich beyond their expectations. The easy money the Fed and government provide goes into the stock market making the rich, that own stocks, filthy wealthy. It is a rigged game. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock.

The Federal Reserve members love to be accommodative, dovish, giving a backroom nod to the Wall Street investment banks (because most of the easy money flows into the stock market). The Fed members are rewarded with lucrative speaking engagements at the large money-center banks for their loyalty to Wall Street once they leave public life providing the quid pro quo. Isn't is sickening. It is called crony capitalism filth.

The United States is a crony capitalism filth system in its final throes. Capitalism does not exist. Most people are too stupid to understand what is happening. Others do not care. The wealthy class does understand and does not care since they have raped the financial system for all it is worth over the last six decades. It is no surprise that the divide between rich and poor now is the widest since the 1970's when similar garbage was playing out.

Still others know what is occurring but remain in denial with fingers crossed that everything will work out eventually. No it will not. You cannot fix America's crony capitalism system anymore. Everything is corrupt to the core. The debt barrels towards $40 trillion with King Donnie Chumpski spending money like a drunken sailor adding from $2 to $4 trillion in debt per year on top of that. Of course he does. He is a real estate guy. They all worship debt. The interest payments on the US debt are $1.3 trillion more than the defense budget. $10 trillion in debt has to be rolled over going forward and will continue but at a higher rate.

The reason for the unrest in society is that there is no longer a middle class. Former President Ronnie Ray-gun (his derogatory nickname during the 80's) busted the unions and set out to destroy the middle class and he succeeded. Reagan wanted to enrich his wealthy class political donors that own the companies and stock market. The lucrative middle class jobs, such as draftsmen, scientists, engineers, designers, etc..., were sent overseas to take advantage of the slave labor. A company did not want to pay a US engineer $30 per hour back then when they could hire a foreigner out of China or India at $6 bucks an hour. The lower expenses sent company stocks, that the wealthy class own, to the moon making the wealthy rich beyond measure. They control the game. Those jobs that were destroyed and sent overseas built the middle class neighborhoods across America in the 60's and 70's. It's over.

Fast forward to the 2020's and you have 30 million Americans in the wealthy class at the top that screwed the 300 million peons at the bottom; the have's and have-not's. Human greed knows no bounds, folks. Once you have a bunch of money, you can live anywhere you want in the world. As the US devolves into chaos and violence with each passing month, a wealthy person can watch it on television as they lay on a beach in Belize or the Bahamas.

The middle class was the glue that held the country together. It no longer exists so the common folks are clinging to any lifeline available to help deal with the Trumpflation especially the higher gasoline prices. Decades back, the poor and disadvantaged folks would reach out to local churches for help but many have shunned religion in the modern days distracted by technology's glitz and glamour analogous to the shiny gold bull idol in the desert.

Common folks that cannot make ends meet are reaching out to any organization that can give them a hand-up including the controversial groups like BLM, antifa, leftist billionaires, etc... This is how Hamas got a grip on Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. People are struggling to survive and here comes someone that can help. It is easy to then get sucked in to their teachings and beliefs as they provide food and help. Even animals know that you do not bite the hand that feeds you.

Consumer sentiment is also in the toilet bowl due to Trumpski's daily chaos, antics such as posting little baby memes and video shorts that boost his frail ego, and war. It does not help that America used to be the shining city on the hill but King Donnie has now made the US the shining predator nation on the hill. The orange head needs content for his daily presidential reality television show that is why he creates drama and constantly comments on every little news item. As he turns 80 however, he is having difficulty keeping his lies straight.

Trumpski will berate a reporter for asking if he has a plan with the Iran War but then a meeting is held and concluded at the Whitehouse yesterday with the politicians admitting that they did not agree on a plan going forward. Isn't that wonderful? It does not matter who is president since they are all corrupt and the crony capitalism system, that cannot be fixed, is gasping its last breaths.

If people are unable to admit that capitalism does not exist, the country has zero hope. You first have to admit that you have a problem if you want to fix it, like Alcoholics Anonymous for the drunkards. All of you, please stand up. Repeat after me. "I, state your name, admit that capitalism does not exist. America is a corrupt crony capitalism filth system on its last legs." There, that was not so hard was it? Capitalism only exists in theoretical business text books but never in practice because of human greed (corruption) and non-transparency (the truth is hidden from the public). It is simple to understand. Do not fight it.

The historic low in consumer sentiment is another milepost passed on the primrose path to Hell. The key point to remember is that 300 million Americans is a bigger number than the 30 million that represent the wealthy educated docile elites that controlled the game and enriched themselves. What do you think is going to happen in the months and few years forward? As the saying goes, 'payback's a bitch'. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6/5/26 at 6:37 PM EST: It is a mini Black Friday. The SPX collapses to 7384.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, finally flips long at SPX 7378 after this month's ongoing odd stock market behavior. Humorously, however, the quant already wants to flip back to the short side. Banks, utilities, and retail stocks are all that matter.

Keybot the Quant

US 30-Year Treasury Yield Monthly and Weekly Charts; Ascending Triangle; 30-Year Yield Tags 5.20% Not Seen Since 2007

The US 30-year Treasury yield tags 5.20% yesterday, 5/19/26, overtaking the 5.18% high from late 2023, and testing the high yields from 2007 almost 20 years ago.

The weekly chart shows a long-term ascending triangle in play a bullish pattern (in this case talking yields, it is bullish yields that means bonds are sold off and not wanted driving yields higher; for notes and bonds it would be bullish yields and bearish the note and bond prices). Traders are wiping their buttocks with the 30-year yield as it breaks up and out of the ascending triangle.

Since this 5.0%-ish area, call it 4.8% to 5.2% is so important due to the chart activity, expect some choppiness and back-kissing in this area going forward. Drilling down to get a good pattern match is the blue ascending triangle. Its baseline is 4.95% and the bottom of the vertical side is 4.30%. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, and therefore and ergo, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Spring Jubilee. The difference gives 65 basis points for the blue vertical side so adding that to the baseline breakout level is 4.95% plus 0.65% = 5.60% as the upside target for the 30-year yield on a weekly basis.

Looking at the vertical side of the orange triangle is 4.00% to 5.05% so that is 1.05% difference and a 6.10% upside target on a monthly basis (5.05%+1.05%). King Donnie Trumpski wants lower rates not higher rates.

The chart indicators are a mixed bag not surprising since the yield has been in a sideways choppy funk for the last couple years. There is near-term upside momentum for yields for the next couple weeks but the RSI and stochastics are at or near overbot levels thinking about a pullback on the weekly basis so yield can catch its breath after the orgy spike. There is negative divergence over the long-term so a move through the green channel at 4.60%-5.20% or 5.30% may continue for a very long time ahead.

Yield would be expected to come down and back kiss the baselines of the triangles at 4.95%-5.05% to show respect before resuming the upside. However, with the orange head in charge anything goes. Donnie Chump is Captain Chaos so expect anything ahead. Interestingly, the 10-year yield is displaying a sideways triangle breakout and the shorter duration 2-year and 5-year charts are seeing rising yields from a falling wedge breakout. All three are bullish, or in the yield case, upside patterns.

Inflation fears, Donnie's Iran War, and the worries in the fixed income arena sends yields higher. Goods inflation has skyrocketed over the last year. Oil prices are creating inflation. The Federal Reserve remains neutral even with an easing bias so they are out of touch. The bond vigilantes are at work sending rates higher so Chairman Warsh, taking over from Powell, will not be able to lower rates like Donnie Chump demands. There is a sign-in ceremony planned for Warsh at the Whitehouse on Friday, that should be performed at the Eccles Building, but Trumpski is letting Warsh know loud and clear that you are my little b*tch, buddy, and in my house kissing my butt, so you need to lower rates.

It will be interesting to see if Warsh has truly sold his soul over the last decade. One of the few people that Keystone and others could cling on to for hope for the US financial system back in 2007-2009 was Warsh. But his conservative stature and wanting to keep US debt in check, and limit bank bailouts, are apparently thrown out the window as he has strapped on dovish wings, started drinking the Kool-Aid, and wants easy money lower rates forever, worshipping the MMT model. People change, or do they?

One way you can get the change you want is to be a wolf in sheep's clothing. That gets you in the door to where you can implement the plans you feel are best for the country to heck with the people that got you there. Will Warsh stand up to Trump and not only not lower rates but hike rates as the year plays out? Markets must size-up Warsh and the path ahead for the Federal Reserve over the next 2 or 3 months.

The market has lost confidence in the Fed's handling of inflation as Warsh rides in on his pale green horse (the four horseman of the global financial apocalypse are the BOJ, ECB, PBOC and Fed). Horslips performs the Man Who Built America a huge one-hit wonder. Keystone built America and parts of the world and now watches it slowly destroyed by drones. It is our destiny. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5/21/26 at 6:41 AM EST:  Donnie panicked after perusing the above charts and ran to a microphone to proclaim that the Iran War is in its final stage. Bingo. Notes and bonds are bot sending yields lower. Stocks catapult higher. Oil drops. Small caps rally. The 30-year bond yield is now at 5.12%.

Note Added 5/23/26: The week ends with yields pulling back (bonds are bot). The 30-year is at 5.07% well off the 5.20% peak. Stick-save Donnie saves the day with happy talk. Warsh is sworn in at the Whitehouse. Good luck to him with inflation ramping higher because of Donnie's Iran War and at the same time US consumer sentiment is the lowest in history (data started in the 60's).

Note Added 5/27/26: The 30-year yield drops to 5.00%.

Note Added 5/30/26: The 30-year yield drops to 4.97% on Donnie Chump happy talk about the Iran War but it sounds like the same bloviations.