AMD Advanced Micro Devices Daily and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence; Price Extended

Oh AMD, we hardly knew ye. AMD is a hot darling of the stock market right now sashaying her semiconductor body all around the trading floor sending equities to the moon. AMD, MU, NVDA, AAPL and MSFT are the AI and stock market leaders in recent weeks. NVDA, AAPL and MSFT, only 3 stocks, ridiculously account for one-fifth of the stock market.

Is anyone using that jackass AI to SI nomenclature change that King Donnie Chumpski proclaimed? Stupid and idiotic. Trump is jealous of Al Gore that invented the internet so Donnie wants to be known for inventing AI, er SI.

You have AI, artificial intelligence, AGI, artificial general intelligence, and ASI, artificial super intelligence. These three happen in order. Right now, we are starting into, and into, AGI. All the doomsday stuff you hear about AI is in reference to ASI when all the computer systems in the country and world are tied together. That is not now. That time in the future is when a catastrophic outcome may occur for the 8 billion souls on Earth so 'let not your hearts be troubled'. The orange-headed idiot succeeds once again at creating confusion now infusing his jackass SI into the AI, AGI and ASI standard industry nomenclature.

The other reason Trump's AI to SI change is stupid is because it removes the word artificial. You do not want to do this. It must always be known that the intelligence is artificial and machine-driven via large language models (LLM) and regenerative code and it is not equatable to human intelligence. The Jackass SI nomenclature removes the artificial inference. You do not want to do that.

Everyone is too caught up in the AI hype throwing billions at promises. It is like Wimpy asking, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." Emperor Jensen, Lord Dario, King Altman, Prince Nadella, Emperor Ternusaround, His Majesty Musk, and the whole Hee-Haw gang, are Wimpy asking for billions, even some trillions if you got them, today, for AGI and ASI tomorrow. As they say in the Bronx, "Good luck wit dat."

Anyhoo, AMD is cooked with all the chart indicators for both the daily and weekly time frames in negative divergence. That is a stock you do not want to own for the coming weeks. The current hype and bullish euphoria can carry on for a few days or week or so but the expectation will be for a neggie d spankdown in both the daily and weekly time frames to begin anytime. It will be the start of a multi-week drawdown in AMD.

The weekly chart is extended above its moving average ribbon (price above the 20-wk MA, above the 50 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed in the weekly time frame. Look at the lower volume in recent weeks on the weekly chart. For all the hype and bullish euphoria for AMD, why are only the bagholding suckers buying the stock? Because the smart money is sneaking out the back door while they tell everyone on television that AMD is the best thing since sliced bread. Pump and dump, baby.

The daily chart shows a doji candlestick for yesterday that can indicate a change in trend at hand. If you are in AMD long, it is time to exit stage right unless you want to ride it lower for several weeks forward. If you have juicy profits, scale yourself out. You can sell a third today, sell a third next week, and then sell the final third the week or so after that. By then, she would be expected to be rolling over and heading lower.

Keystone is not in AMD long or short right now but obviously, short is the play going forward on the daily and weekly time frames. Keystone has started to short the semiconductor sector starting yesterday. Donnie Trump was campaigning down at Choctaw Ridge the other day but he did not mention that Billie Jo MacAllister jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge. Bobbie Gentry. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 7766. The sideways choppy slop is relentless. Copper and volatility are running the show. Both are bullish creating the lift in equities along with oil prices relaxing lower. Watch CPER 39.63 and VIX 16.24 as the bull/bear lines in the sand. Do not be surprised if the quant whipsaws back to the short side in a day or two. Sideways choppy slop chews up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot the Quant

CPCE CBOE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Put/Call Ratio at 5-Year Low Signaling Rampant Complacency, Bullish Euphoria and Fearlessness; Sell, Mortimer, Sell

The CPCE CBOE Options Equity Put.Call Ratio dropped below 0.4 signaling rampant complacency, bullish euphoria and fearlessness in the US stock market. No one believes that stocks will ever go down again. The bears have all left town. There are only very bullish and euphorically bullish bulls remaining. Sure, that should work out well (said cynically).

The put/call ratio is the lowest since late 2021 when the stock market topped out. The SPX then crashed -25% over the next 10 months. The put/calls then spiked higher in Q4 of 2022 signaling rampant panic and fear so that was the perfect time to buy stocks. People's hair is on fire and they will do anything to get out of the stock market. A high put/call ratio signals that people never want to own stocks again as long as they live so you will be glad to take their shares off their worried hands.

John Doe, Sammy Sixpack, Savita Sucka and Bonita Bagholder are buying with both fists right now caught up in the AI and semiconductor hype. The guys and gals on television tell you to buy, buy, buy, because they are unloading their shares at the top locking in their juicy profits; they need bagholders so they pump and dump.

That is the purpose of that Trump account nonsense putting in $1000 for a child and telling them they will be a millionaire out of high school. It is silliness. What will these folks, now numbering in the millions, say when their Trump account is worth only $800 bucks a year from now? However, the wealthy class would have gotten theirs and then they will tell you not to forget that you are an investor for the long term (they weren't). Don't you love crony capitalism filth? It is a disgrace that the US government and corrupt investment houses tout the Trump accounts and not one single person ever said that "past performance does not guarantee future results." Instead, they provide fuzzy math promising vast riches every year forward forever. They are corrupt thieves always implementing policies that allow the backroom grift.

Applying the -25% to the SPX at 7723, that would be a drop of 1931 points, and a landing spot of 5792 by summertime if this 2022 fractal plays out again. The US stock market has rallied for the last 4 years with the AI hype carrying most of the load reminiscent of the dotcom bubble. Plan accordingly.

If you are new to stock trading and proud of yourself for making a little bit of money, get yourself out before you get hurt. Ditch your longs and let the money sit in your brokerage account in cash for the next few months. It is dusk now, and the sharks are starting to swim in the darkened waters anxious to begin feeding. Do you want to keep swimming? Sell, Mortimer, Sell. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side at SPX 7653. Copper and volatility are creating negativity in the stock market while the NYA index creates positivity. One or more of these metrics will flinch and expose the path forward. The US Monthly Jobs Report is at 8:30 AM EST so everything is noise until the BLS brings the numbers down from On High and tells traders how to trade.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Historic Stock Market Top At Hand

This month is looking a lot like last month. Stocks staggering sideways like the drunk in Times Square last evening. The US stock market is at a historic top but, as all these charts have explained the last few months, you have to wait for that pesky MACD to go neggie d before the top can be confirmed (blue circle).

All other chart indicators are in negative divergence (red lines) with overbot conditions agreeable to a multi-month smackdown ahead. Price made the matching high as compared to August so it is all systems go for a neggie d spankdown, in this case a multi-month if not several year beat down in stocks, except for the MACD. There are 3 trading days remaining in September so a big downdraft move in stocks in the week ahead may be enough to pull the MACD lower into negative divergence but it may be too tall of a task in the limited time.

With all the wild choppy ups and downs this month, the MACD went neggie d a few times but it was then stick-saved to still show the upward slope in the blue circle. The MACD is in nosebleed territory. The guy selling peanuts refuses to walk all the way up there, into that thin air, to sell a bag of nuts. This means that stocks can simply begin lower and start the multi-month pullback right now without the MACD going neggie d (because it is already in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down).

October trading starts Thursday so check the monthly chart then because a new candlestick will be showing for the new month. It may be a repeat set-up like the end of last month. Price will remain elevated with matching or higher highs. Bears would be happy with this because any slope lower in the MACD locks-in the negative divergence going forward and the stock market is toast. Remember, you have to wait until you see the white's of their eyes, or in this case the blue circle.

The SPX has tagged the upper standard deviation band so a trip lower to the middle band, also the 20-mth MA, at 6741, and rising, is on the table for the weeks and months ahead. Ditto the lower band at 5552 and rising.

The Aroon is as expected for a historic top. The green line shows that every bull believes the stock market will go up forever and there is no end to the equity glory gravy train. This Train Is Bound for Glory. Everyone is in party mode. The red line is almost back into oversold territory in other words, the vast majority of bears also believe that stocks will continue higher forever, just like the bulls, again, this would be expected at a historic top.

The purple circles show the distribution months where the smart money is sloughing off shares to Amy Sucka, Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder and Fiona Fool. Pump and dump, baby. This is why the Wall Streeter's walk around in $5,000 custom-tailored Armani suits. The investment houses parade across television and internet screens telling you to buy, buy, buy, and they just so happen to have some shares they can sell you. They do not want you to miss out on the fun (said the spider to the fly).

The volume candlesticks show that as retail investors are excited one month, bam, bam, the smart money dumps shares to the dumb money the following month taking advantage of the bullish optimism. Rinse and repeat at a historic top to provide the smart money enough time to ditch a lot of their longs. When stocks collapse, Amy, Joe, Carlos and Fiona are crying in their beer wearing barrels as the fat cats smoke cigars laughing at the average person's greed and stupidity that is so easily manipulated. Are you the dumb money? Are you going to be a bagholding sucker?

Watch the next 3 days to see if the bears can stomp stocks lower and get the MACD to go neggie d, if not, no biggie, check it at the end of the week with the new October candlestick underway. It is exciting with this historic top at hand and we will be in the ominous month of October known for epic crashes. Are you excited? Are you ready or are you drinking the Kool-Aid? Is it the End of the Line? Just some guys hanging around playing their guitars. They show the rocking chair with Roy's guitar where he used to sit and play; one friend gone. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/1/26, at 8:20 PM EST: As explained above, it is October and a new candlestick begins for the monthly chart. September ends with the MACD line still sloping one single hair higher but today, with price making the matching high, all the chart indicators, including the MACD, are now neggie d. Last month there were a couple of these occurring but the bulls battled back. Tomorrow is jobs day so watch the MACD to see if it slopes higher if stocks rally. If not, and the current neggie d remains in place, the long-term top (multiple months and perhaps a couple years of down is ahead) for the US stock market is in place; it is historic and you are watching it in real time. Lower the lifeboats! The Titanic stock market is sinking! Women and children board the lifeboats first! Harold, remove that babushka and womans coat, you coward. 7666 is an interesting number for the SPX right now. Trip 6's. The stock market bottomed in March 2009 at 666. A key reason that craziness and social unrest has not yet appeared in the US in recent years is due to the rising stock market that calms fears and provides a distraction. Once the stock market rolls over going forward on the monthly basis, all bets are off. People will turn ugly as they see the stock market dropping week after week month after month.

Note Added Saturday, 10/3/26: The big Friday rally brings the MACD line in the chart back to a flattish nature. She is at a multi-month top but the non-reversible confirmation may have to wait until the end of the month when October is cast in concrete and the November candlestick begins. Nonetheless, be on guard for stocks to fall apart at anytime and begin the multi-month slide lower.

AAPL Apple Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Apple stock floats higher because, it's Apple. Going forward, CEO John Ternusaround is going to have to bring more to the table. The Duo, or Do Over, is yesterday's spaghetti warmed up in the microwave. Americans cannot afford to pay bills so a new smartphone is likely not on the agenda. Keystone posted the weekly chart a few days ago so price is cooked on the weekly, and also daily time frames, with neggie d.

There was no reason for AAPL price to come up after the top 3 days ago but alas, as said above, Apple is Apple and traders and investors are programmed to hold AAPL stock through thick and thin. If you take a closer look, there is a worm poking its head out of that apple looking back at you. Fiona Apple's voice was Criminal. She's been a bad, bad girl.

The red lines show how price makes new highs, but the indicators continue to slope lower, no longer able to provide strength to push price higher. That means a negative divergence beat down is at hand, for this chart it is in the daily basis. AAPL is in trouble considering both the daily and weekly charts are pieces of garbage displaying neggie d. Plan accordingly.

Note the purple arrows showing the bands squeezing in tight. That forecasts a big move at hand but does not predict direction. Price was squeezed-out higher from 310 to 346 within a month. The upper band is violated so a move to the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 329 is on the table for starters.

People want to believe in Apple but the chart says exit stage right. What happens when the darling of the market, beloved Apple stock, starts taking the pipe? Will confidence in the stock market be lost?

On the 2-hour chart, price may need a few hours to print a higher high to begin the week, and then receive a negative divergence spankdown along with the daily and weekly time frames. The Apple monthly chart is interesting. It is in negative divergence except for the MACD that is in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down. Apple is printing a major historic top either in this near-term or within the next month or two. The monthly chart will confirm that as the coming weeks play out. 

Keystone is not in AAPL long or short right now but obviously the play forward is on the short side. Apple believers are zombies forever believing in the stock. Zombie by The Cranberries. Poor Dolores dead for 8 years. She was a great talent. Great stage presence. Hope for peace. Isn't the concert crowd fantastic? Not one garbage smartphone in sight; that changed in this new century. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 10/3/26: AAPL 333.

NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; 40-Week MA at 23300 Determines a Cyclical Bull Market Versus a Cyclical Bear Market

The stock market continues chopping along in the sideways slop. However, the broad NYA index has taken the pipe over the last 6 weeks falling from 24867 to 23760, a 1107 point drop, -4.5%, and ending the week at 23913. No one notices since they are too busy buying stocks.

The red rising wedge pattern is bearish and ominous since price is dancing at the bottom rail. It is time to bounce or die. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic.

The top was an easy call due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions (RSI, stochastics, money flow) and of course, the main reason, neggie d. The red lines show how price made the higher highs in August so the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence. ALL the chart indicators were in negative divergence in August (sloping down while price is sloping higher) confirming that NYA was completely out of gas and a top on the weekly basis is in place. Price had no further strength to move higher. Thus, it was time to receive the neggie d spankdown and begin a multi-week pullback.

The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading that is the art, and science, of calling tops and bottoms in the markets. 

The fun begins and continues for 6 weeks with price receiving the smackdown and the chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see more lows in price in the weeks ahead even if price will stage a relief rally for a week or two. The stochastics are about to go sub 50 into bear territory. Ditto the RSI.

The chart is ugly but no one wants an ugly face on a Saturday night. Won't you come out tonight, babe? I'd love to see your face. Jesse Welles. The pink boxes for the ADX show that the NYA was in a strong trend higher to begin the year but that fell apart during the stock market selloff. After many months, the ADX once again started to indicate that the trend higher was strong but alas, it rolls over and dies now down to sub 25 indicating that the move higher into August is no longer a strong trend higher.

The Aroon is a hoot. As the summer started, the bears tried to flex their weight, but they were stuffed by the historic bullish euphoria and stock market complacency, and belief in all things AI. The Aroon green line remains oversold so basically all the bulls remain bullish the stock market even after the 6-week -5% pullback. It does not even phase the bulls. They call it a buying opportunity. The funny part is the red line at zero. The bears are totally dejected and given up all hope that stocks will ever go down. There are no bears remaining on Wall Street only various stages of bullishness. The bears have completely given up. That is hilarious. Even funnier than all the bears remaining completely bullish on stocks, the bears are also more bullish on stocks than the bulls. Funny stuff. What do you think is going to happen going forward, idiots? But Keystone, the guy on television said buy, buy, buy.

All of the above doom and gloom aside, let's get down to business. The blue line is the 40-week MA one of Keystone's major market metrics that determine a cyclical bull versus bear market. Note that earlier this year when stocks were falling apart, they bounced from this critical test level. The 40-week MA is at 23313 and this will drift a bit lower as price slumps down for a potential test of this critical support. If the NYA fails at 23300, that is when you realize that you screwed-up by holding on to all your long stocks. You will be bludgeoned and wearing a barrel.

You know what to watch. First, see if the wedge failure occurs, if so, price will likely collapse sharply lower perhaps to immediately test the 40-week. If the 40 fails, it is lights out for the stock market for many weeks and months forward. Let the festivities begin.

Price is at 23913 and the drop to 23300 is 613 points so 613 divided by 23913 is 0.0256 and multiply by a hundo to make it a percentage is a -2.6% from here where it would all be on the line at the 40-week MA and determine the fate of the stock market for the remainder of the year. Watch it closely. The bulls are riding along the happy trail singing hallelujah and celebrating stocks, even with the -5% drawdown, but the wheels are wobbly and starting to fall off the party wagon. Hallelujah Trail by Charley Crockett. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/2/26, at 7:01 AM EST: The NYA wagon loses a wheel yesterday collapsing to 23333 below the 23341 line in the sand that will announce a new cyclical bear market going forward. Price recovers to 23527 with the US Monthly Jobs Report only 90 minutes away. Bad things will happen to stocks if NYA loses 23341.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, finally flips long at SPX 7728 after 2 months of choppy stock market slop. Oil drops so stocks rock and the orgy party in semi's today sends equities to the moon. However, nothing has changed. Bulls need stronger banks to prove they got game. Bears need weaker chips and copper and higher volatility.

Keybot the Quant

Copper Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Tight Bands Forecast Big Move Coming

Copper is the red metal, or the other yellow metal if you prefer, and has experienced a record multi-year upside rally on the AI, data center, and all things chips and electronics hype. Copper was always an indicator for the housing and automobile industries since these were the two biggest users of copper. The indoor plumbing is copper and the car wiring, electronics and other parts, such as the starter motors, are copper.

But in recent years, technology rules the roost and with the AI hype, copper has found a new sugar daddy. Copper is now an indicator for the health of the artificial intelligence sector. Homes are now fitted with non-copper pipes. The slow rise of EV's (glorified golf carts) are big users of copper so the adoption, or shunning, of electric vehicles will impact copper prices. Copper is also subjected to global weather events and civil unrest and riots. Copper shines riding the AI wave.

But will the wave crash? The rising wedge pattern is ominous as price works up into the apex with nowhere left to go. The collapses from the bearish rising wedge can be quite dramatic. Two weeks ago, price received the initial neggie d spankdown slap but last week, after price touched the bottom of the wedge it bounced, on more AI hype, and price ran higher to the top rail of the wedge.

The red lines clearly show the negative divergence in play across all chart indicators. Copper is out of gas without any fuel remaining in the tank. Not even any fumes.  The expectation is for copper to begin a multi-week neggie d spankdown.

The standard deviation bands are squeezing in to multi-year tightness (purple arrows). A huge move is on deck for copper, on the weekly basis. Tight bands forecast a big move on tap but do not predict direction. The chart is bearish so down is the expected path forward but Emperor Jensen or Lord Dario may provide happy AI talk that gives the red metal another boost. The chart is toast, on the weekly basis, so happy news is all that can save it now. The copper monthly chart remains long and strong so price should receive the smack down from now say through much of October and then likely recover into year end.

October is at our doorstep. Interesting. The month known for crashes. September is usually a lousy month for stocks but the notable crashes occurred in October. Watch your wallet.

The US housing market has slipped into a double-dip recession so copper pipes and fittings are collecting dust at the plumbing supply company. EV's have lost some of the luster. Buy one of those electric golf carts and you buy a job plugging it in and out, looking for charging stations, and the rest of it. What idiot buys an EV when a gas station is on every corner? With housing slumping, and the auto business sluggish since common folks do not have any money, AI is carrying copper on its back and its spindly legs are starting to give-way.

Copper is set to take a multi-week slide lower unless the AI tech bros can save the day with more hype. Forget the tech bros and instead go with the Blues Brothers. Live, from Calumet, Illinois, give it up for the Blues Bros. Dan Aykroyd's fat old arse could not dance like that now if his life depended on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: Dr Copper is shot-up with more morphine and continues dancing a jig of joy. Price pops this week up to the top rail at 6.83 again piercing the upper band as the standard deviation bands continue pulling-in tight. A big move is coming and the weekly chart remains in neggie d saying down is ahead for a few weeks. Tell that to the price. Copper is spanked down from the 6.83 trading at 6.66. Trip 6's.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Crash -12% into a Correction Over the Last 8 Weeks; Utes Crash -16% in 9 Weeks to 999

Keystone has warned several times about the failing utilities. When utes lead the broad market lower, it is a bad omen for nasty things coming. No one cares because they are too busy buying stocks with both fists.

UTIL, or DJU, collapses from 1183 to 1042, a drop of 141 points, or -12%, into a correction, losing -1-1/2% per week for the last 2 months, but no one notices.

Plan accordingly. Pretty and talented Ella Langley is receiving lots of attention these days, especially from men. Choosin' Texas. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 9/21/26: UTIL crashes to 1035 but no one cares since they are too busy buying stocks because oil prices are falling and chips rallying.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: UTIL crashes to 1015. Wow! Utilities have crashed -14% in only 2 months. Prepare the bunker.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/25/26: UTIL crashes to 1007 now down -15% in 9 weeks. Let the festivities begin. Typically, the broad stock market would follow utes lower within 0 to 8 weeks time. We are now at 9 weeks. Something has got to give. Gird your loins.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 9/29/26: UTIL crashes to 999, breaking through 1K, now down -16% in 9 weeks.