The neggie d top on the daily chart finally forms and creates the spankdown as previously explained. Price falls through the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 7465, like a hot knife through butter. Price successfully back kisses the 20 and then falls to violate the lower band so a move back up to the middle band is on the table and voila, price comes up to 7456 on Friday. There is another 10 points needed to tap on the 20-day so the bulls may be gunning for that tomorrow. The 20-day MA at 7465 is an important resistance ceiling with bulls winning bigtime above while bears will win the game if price remains below.
The SPX topped-out as June started due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence across all chart indicators. A spankdown was needed and occurs. Price was over extended to the upside above the 20-day MA above the 50-day, above the 100 above the 150 above the 200, so a mean reversion lower was needed.
Note the three lows that print last week. That allows you to look at the chart indicators to see if positive divergence forms to set up a relief rally on the daily basis. This is when Donnie Chump announced that an Iran War deal was in the bag and the signing would be this weekend. Stocks exploded higher on Thursday and Friday. Follow the thin black line down to see if possie d is in play as price makes a matching or lower low, and it is for all indicators except the MACD line that remains weak and bleak wanting to see another lower low in price on the daily basis. This proves that the rally is due to Donnie hype and is not a technical bottom. Technically, there is unfinished business to the downside so the Iran War happy talk will have to play out for a day or few.
King Trumpski is threatening military action again after Iran says they will likely not sign the agreement today but perhaps in the days ahead. Iran likely wants to wait to see what happens at the G7. Who will Donnie talk to and what does he say? Baby Trump wants his little birthday agreement present today so he can spin a yarn that he created world peace on his birthday. What color is the sky in that dufus's mind? Probably orange.
Iran plays Trump like a Stratovarius. Even if a deal is agreed to, Iran will tell their proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon to fire missiles at Israel, and Israel will have to retaliate, so Iran will say the deal is off because Israel needs to stop fighting. Donnie is the Chump in this circle-jerk party game squandering the military success in Iran and instead creating a mess that may be worse for the US and the world. Futures open at 6 PM EST and that will already be 1 AM Middle East time on Monday morning.
The ADX shows that the down move in March was a strong trend lower but that petered out in early April as the rally took hold. The entire upside from there and printing of all-time record highs comes without the ADX signaling that it is a strong trend higher. For the record highs, the ADX should be above 30 and probably at 40 right now instead it is down to 26 and dropping. The ADX is not impressed with the stock market rally at all. The ADX tried to show a strong trend just as the all-time record high was printed, but that did not hold and disappeared fast.
The Aroon shows a negative cross. That came about fast. Now the bulls are still bullish for stocks but the bears are now bearish the stock market. A week ago, the bulls were bullish, no surprises there, and the bears were also bullish. Traders and investors are starting to rethink the stock market and worry that the party may not last.
Lots more downside would be expected going forward considering the negative divergence in the weekly time frame and the rampant complacency and fearlessness that continues in the stock market that is displayed during every major and historic top.
That UFC garbage is tonight where blood and spit will cover the Whitehouse lawn. If that is what people want, give it to them. Sick stuff. The people's house and lawn is not the place for such a violent blood sport. Looks like rain or the hot sweaty air and bugs may ruin the cage match. They say 100K people may fill the Ellipse for the viewing. Huh? A major speech or inauguration may draw 100K to 200K to the area but it is hard to believe that about one-half or more of the people that attend the major campaign and political events in Washington, DC, are going to flock there late on a Sunday night to watch blood and spit fly from people's mouths? That audience is probably going to be all young people, mainly men, from 15 years old to 50. Donnie and the gang are praying for No Rain. Ooh, ooh, ooh, I like watching the puddles gather rain. It's not sane. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/15/26, at 5:55 AM EST: The orchestrated Iran War agreement is announced by Trumpy at 5:30 PM EST. He proclaims the Strait of Hormuz is open and to 'let the oil flow'. Idiot. An hour later, the Strait of Hormuz will not open until Friday. It does not matter. The insurers of those cargoes need details and to know what is going on factually before they can commit to allowing their ships to pass through those now dangerous waters. You knew the deal was coming because all day Sunday, Trumpy boasted of a conclusion no matter what, regardless of details that remain in disagreement. Note how Donnie waited until 5 PM EST, since it turns Monday in Iran 7 hours ahead, because he hoped the radical Islamists would capitulate and give him his baby birthday present. Iran did not. Iran waited for Monday to stick it to Trump. Donnie wanted to announce an agreement, whatever it is, since details will not be released, before futures opened and boom, S&P futures pop +100 points. There was no signing of any agreement. There is supposed to be a signing in Switzerland on Friday but it is unknown who will be signing what. Iran continues to state different details about the deal than Trump. It is a weak deal since Donnie does not want to release the details. When Trump kept threatening military action but backing away, he gave up his leverage. Iran knew Donnie was looking for an exit ramp. They are eating his lunch. It was clear in Trump's statements that he does not want to send troops into Iran so that gives Iran the upper hand in the deal making process. King Donnie opined about loss of Iranian lives if bombing continued and the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, so King Donnie the deal maker, gave up his leverage. Trump was not willing to finish the mess he created. The US may be giving Iran from $12 billion to $24 billion dollars upon the signing of the agreement. What? Donnie complained that Obama gave $1.7 billion to the radical nation. No wonder Trump will not release the details. Both Trump and Iran now say they will not release details until the signing on Friday that means they are still arguing over unsettled issues. There is no mention of the ballistic missiles that the radical Islamists can attach upgraded uranium, or a biological pathogen, in a warhead and create havoc in a major European city. Trumpy's Iran deal sounds like a sh*t deal, if there is a deal. Folks, open your eyes. Trump goes from demanding an unconditional surrender to having his orange tail between his legs negotiating a weak deal. In addition, Trump and Putin talk to each other and then after they hang up, Putin bombs a heritage site in Ukraine and kills some more civilians. Donnie does not care about Ukraine since he lies in bed with Vlad. Donnie hates Ukraine so much that he will not take advantage of their expertise in drone warfare that could greatly help the United States defenses. Israel says 'deal, what deal?' and states that they are not bound to the agreement between Trump and Iran. All of the above creates a happy start to the trading week and that may continue since stocks are typically higher into a Fed meeting anyway. The charts need to price-in the additional Donnie hype. Adding a hundo to Friday's closing price of 7431 is 7531 blowing up through the 20-day MA at 7465. The high from the previous Friday was 7542 so that may act as a ceiling. Again, there is no reason for price to come back up, there are no gaps to fill; all the gaps are below. Price may moderate between 7465 and 7542 until it makes an exit on one side or the other. There will be drama for a few days with the G7, Warsh's debut performance on hump day, and the so-called Iran deal signing on Friday. If the so-called signing occurs late Friday, the stock market craziness may stumble into next week. So there is likely a week and a half of wild price action ahead. The pop gives you a chance to get out of longs. Nothing's changed. The charts will reset and a major top remains on the docket going forward. The off the charts bullish euphoria in the stock market and expectation that equities will go up forever is on full display just like the dotcom bubble. The UFC event went off without rain ruining the evening so that is good. Unfortunately, the night is soiled by one of the jackass fighters yelling out an ignorant slur at the Obama's proclaiming that "Michelle Obama is a man!" Not cool. The Whitehouse UFC event will now be known as the event where they said Michelle Obama is a man. Hey Frank. Yes, Roy. Did you go to the UFC event? Yes, you should have seen it, Trump and the fighters said that Michelle Obama is a man. To the crowd's credit, one-half of them booed the ignorant derogatory comment. Under Trump, we are the shining insult city on the hill. The entire crowd for the UFC event was young men. Trumpy wanted to placate his voting base. The stands were full of service members so they were all given tickets and told to show up and watch. The event easily achieved 80K people including those watching the big screen and that makes sense since many thousands were service members. King Donnie is flying over to France for the G7 and already in his onesies fast asleep. Sweet dreams.
Note Added Monday Evening, 6/15/26, at 7:24 PM EST: Whee! Whoopie! It was party time with traders buying with both fists after the King Donnie Iran War agreement hype. The orgy sends the SPX to 7578 and it settles at 7554 a 123 point gain, +1.7%. This big price move occurs on less volume than two days ago when the Iran agreement was first announced and a big spike higher occurred in the SPX. That may be a bunch of Joe Retail and Bonita Bagholder folks buying stocks after listening to the daily television hype. More Donnie Chump drama occurs today. Of course it does. Everyday is a new reality television episode. Trump proclaims that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Two sentences later he decrees that Hormuz will "completely open" on Friday. Huh? That is like being a little pregnant. There are probably some oil tankers moving through the strait but other large cargoes are likely waiting for a blessing from the insurers. The Whitehouse and Vice President Vance say the Iran agreement was digitally signed. Humorously, maybe it was a Donnie deal signed by Trump and placed in a FedEx envelope sent to Iran? It is a confusing mess when everyone talks in riddles. Trump's Iran deal is so fantastic that he said he will probably not attend the signing on Friday despite being in Europe. You have seen this story before. He will have Vance sign it and as the criticism occurs, Trumpski will tell everyone to talk to Vance. It is funny stuff. There is a 60-day time frame for the next so-called deal although no one knows what the first deal is. When you are talking nuke stuff you are going to need nuclear physicists in on those discussions on both sides. They will highlight the stages of processes that would allow windows of opportunity for taking actions to mitigate the material. This stuff is not sorted out in a day or three. It will likely take weeks and maybe months to figure out the details on the nuclear problem. Iran will ask for a 60-day extension after the first 60 days ends and keep stringing Donnie Chump along making him look like a chump. King Donnie snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Only a fool trusts a radical Islamist. Trump now says the Iran agreement may not be released until well after Saturday. What? Donnie is getting rolled in the alley way behind the Eiffel Tower by a bunch of Iranian guys in robes and sandals. The Iran agreement must be released. Trump must be ashamed of the deal. Folks, Trump will be further humiliated because a nuclear deal will never materialize.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/16/26, at 5:52 AM EST: Trump is talking in real-time from G7. He looks tired and run down with a raspy voice and always sitting these days hunched over with his forearms on his thighs. He's old. Donnie mixes up Biden and Obama in his comments; he must be tired. Trump says regime change was never a goal in Iran. That is a lie. Trumpski's very first speech on the Iran War he stated that he wanted regime change. The idiot does not care that his past comments are on video; he simply moves on each day and spews whatever comes to mind. The reason he hit Iran was likely because the Israeli intelligence said all the Iranian leaders are in one place and the whole regime can be taken out in one hit. Trump went for it and succeeded, however, the second tier radical leadership stepped up; Iran had a plan for succession. Donnie eliminated most of them but the regime remains in place and that is why Trumpy now says regime change was never the goal (because he failed). Trump slams Israel for hitting Lebanon and says Israel would not exist without him. Trump is mad at Bibi because the elimination of the top two tiers of the radical Islamist leadership did not result in regime change so King Donnie looks like a zero instead of a hero. America and Israel created a worse mess in the Middle East. Donnie repeats the same old talking points every time he is in front of the camera. It is the same ole schtick from the orange-headed carnival barker and the act gets old. Trump claims Iran is now in the rearview mirror. What!!!? Oh my. You can see how Trump is setting up Vance and now Netanyahu to be the fall guys and villains of the Iran War, and left to handle the mess, while he is trying to sneak out the back door and wash his hands of it. Donnie would rather spend time picking out the gold curtains for his ballroom. What a guy, what a guy. He has a baby's brain and an old man's heart. That was one of Alice's greatest lyrics. I'm Eighteen. S&P futures are flat.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/16/26, at 8:35 AM EST: Trump is talking again from the G7 unable to stop his diarrhea of the orange mouth. He repeats over and over again that his goal in Iran is not to permit them to have a nuclear weapon. Trump is trying to downplay all talk of regime change and other matters in Iran and is trying to manipulate the media and massage a message to the public that the nuclear angle is the top goal in Iran. Of course he is because he failed at regime change. He brags that satellites are watching Iran 24/7 including the areas where nuclear material is buried deep in the Earth. If so, why do you have to get the material? Instead, simply watch the areas for activity. Duh. Donnie is speaking in half-truths and riddles so we do not know the real truth of what is going on in Iran and we are not being shown the so-called agreement. Trump is pressed again as to why he does not release the agreement and his weak and feeble excuse is that he wants to release it in a formal setting. What bull sh*t. It must be a garbage deal. S&P futures are flat.
