SPX S&P 500, CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Panic and Fear Finally Starting to Appear

After a drop in the SPX from 7K to 6624, a nearly 4 hundo point loss, -5.5%, panic and fear is finally starting to appear in the stock market. Sometimes people do not believe so you have to shove it down their throats until they gag on it. Then they believe. The stock market complacency and uber bullishness was a constant theme late last year into this year. This was proven by the low put/call ratios (red circles).

When the year started, there was a tinge of fear with some traders worried about a repeat of the prior year when stocks fell after everyone proclaimed nothing but upside ahead a la Irving Fisher in 1929. That spike in panic and fear created the rally shown by the green bar on the SPX chart. That rally was a run from a bottom at 6824 to 6985 let's call it a 160 points.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the spring cotillion this Friday, the start of year fractal may repeat now. That would create a rally from 6624 to 6784 if it follows the previous fractal.

Thus, tread carefully if short since a relief rally is likely at hand. As previously explained, the hourly and daily SPX charts are encouraging for a relief rally due to the positive divergence, and a couple chart indicators on the weekly chart agree with, and will help create, that buoyancy. However, indicators on the SPX weekly chart remain weak and bleak so lower lows in SPX price are desired going forward on the weekly basis.

Thus, Keystone has to work on his thus's if he wants invited to the April Fool's Day bash at the Amvets Club, stocks will likely stage a relief rally bounce over the coming days but weakness should reappear a week or two out. Any trades depend on your time frames. If you are willing to hold your shorts for a while and endure a relief rally, that may be strong, pay no mind since the additional weakness ahead in the weekly time frame will take care of that trade in the future.

If a shorter term trader, take some profits on shorts and flip them long but you must be nimble if playing long and keep close attention. The Iran War is not going well and things may go to Hell in a handbasket at anytime. King Donnie Chump, that started a major world war, now is telling Iran and Israel to deescalate. Trumpski is in a mess and in way over his orange head. Donnie threatens everyone daily and the bloviations from the 80-year old showman have less of an impact. Iran plans to keep attacking ignoring Trumpski's words. Chump started a war that he can no longer control or finish.

For today and the next few days, however, be alert to a relief rally starting. When the Whip Comes Down. There is no cooler guitar player than Keith Richards. Humorously, at this point, the drugs and alcohol is what keeps him alive. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

ADBE Adobe Daily and Weekly Charts; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violations

Keystone puts on the Kevlar gloves as he attempts to catch the Adobe falling knife. He also has Band-Aids and gauze available if the knife penetrates. Talk about a piece of excrement. ADBE was a stock market darling a long time, until it wasn't. ADBE crashes from 550 to 250 in 1-1/2 years a -55% drubbing. That's gonna leave a mark. Adobe was ridden hard and put away wet. Nasty. She asks, When Will I Be Loved? Linda had the one in a million voice.

And of course what happens when you are down and out? Yep. Someone comes along and kicks you in the face. It is always darkest before, it turns completely black. At the end of last year, fear ran through the internet stocks and private credit tickers due to AI disruption fears. Adobe fell off a cliff at that point and the investors that held on to the Adobe piece of crap through thick or thin finally gave up and threw in the towel. You know what happens when everyone gives up on a stock, right? It is usually, but not always, time to buy it.

Note that a nice bottom was in for ADBE at Thanksgiving and a positive divergence launch was in play (thin green lines). Price pops for a couple weeks and flattens in December but the bad AI news hit and she fell out of bed. Positive divergence is in play now across all indicators for both the daily and weekly charts (green lines) so a bounce should be on tap. Keep watching the money flow on the weekly chart. It is possie d but showing further possible weakness due to the exodus from the stock. If money flow makes a lower low, ADBE may need to jog for a couple weeks at these lows before rallying.

Note the purple arrows on the weekly chart showing the tight standard deviation bands. Tight bands signal a huge move on tap but do not predict direction. Bloop. The squeeze was down the rabbit hole of despair.

Price violates the lower band on the weekly so a move to the middle band at 305, and falling, is on the table. The daily chart barely tagged the lower band but it is good enough for government work. Price may still want to come down to officially tag 240 with a big ole sloppy wet kiss like pretty little Bunny provides. Bunny is a Labrador.

Adobe was taken to the shed out back behind the abode and beaten severely, however, the worst may be over. A bounce would be expected over the short-term (a few weeks). ADBE should bounce from here due to the possie d explained above but if not, it should bounce over the coming days. Simply make sure the possie d remains in place since that is the fuel that will shoot price higher.

Keystone bot ADBE long this afternoon during the stock market beating and will give her a whirl for a little while. The longs that have held on to the beaten-down and frazzled stock the last few months are asking pretty Adobe to not hurt me, don't hurt me, no more. What Is Love by Haddaway with shuffle dancers. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Stock Market Awaits Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference; Critical 10-Month MA at 6673 Tested Again; Stocks Tank After Powell Displays Laissez-Faire Attitude about Iran War and Oil Spikes

It has been a multi-month period of sideways choppy slop resolving to the downside. Keystone has described this atypical stock market top since the Fall. It was unique. Note that any of you that bot stocks on the long side in December, January or February, have lost money. You're a sucka. It's funny. Write "Sucka" on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. Now you have to explain to your significant other why you lost money when you promised that vast riches were guaranteed, like the guy on television said.

The rolling top (light blue line) would fit a french curve nicely. Many of you never used a french curve. In charting, back when we used lanterns for light and wrote with quill pens (joking), a graph could be curve-fit using a french curve to give it a smooth appearance and help with analysis. Amazon still sells them, however, young men, and old men, are thinking of different French curves like Brigitte. 

The top was well-forecasted and explained in advance with the red rising wedge, negative divergence, upper band violation, price extension, uber bullishness, etc... For a half-year, the US stock market has only moved through a 450-point range at 6550-7000 that is only a 7% to 8% range. Doesn't it feel like the stock market is in the stratosphere due to non-stop television and internet hype? Well, it is not.

Price drops to the orange line that is just shy of filling that orange gap from November. Price tests the level again four days later and bounces. The couple-day rally takes the SPX up to the 150-day MA at 6754 where it hits its head and falls back down. The 150 has street cred going forward. Keeping price below is important for bears and moving above would be a bull victory. The slope of the 150 tells you if the stock or index is in a cyclical bull or bear pattern. The 150 still slopes higher by a hair so the cyclical bull still gets the nod but when price is below, it will flatten and drag the 150 down creating a negative slope and a cyclical bear market.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band, also the 20-day MA, at 6816 is on the table going forward. Price also bounced off the lower band on the weekly chart. Previous charts explain the importance of the 10-month MA at 6676 and the 12-month MA at 6515-6520 that would usher-in a bear market. Price violated the 10 but recovered off this key line in the sand. It would be interesting to see another test of the 10-mth MA at 6676.

The SPX is waiting on Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High this afternoon and tell international traders how to trade. Stocks are typically higher 80% of the time the day or so in front of the Fed decision and traders did not waste any time buying the market out of the gate on Monday front-running the expected positivity. Interestingly, the new moon peaks tonight at 9:30 PM EST the darkest overnight time of the month. Stocks are typically soft, about two-thirds of the time, moving through the new moon. First day of spring is Friday.

The brown lines show an H&S pattern so head at 7K and neck line at 68 hundo is 200 difference so a rupture of 6800 would open the door to 6600 that was almost achieved some will say close enough for government work. Price was in the neighborhood of the 200-day MA at 6612 when it bounced. The SPX should show respect and actually touch the 200 to make a bounce or die decision.

The 6550 (dark blue line) is bigtime important price support and represents the entire stock market from September forward. Obviously, a new age begins below 6550 and it is not the Golden Age the orange head brags about; instead it is the New Gilded Age.

The neggie d spankdown occurs in the daily time frame with price dropping and the bulls and dip-buyers are hoping they can catch a break and stop the drop and begin a relief rally. If you follow the lowest price point lower (thin black vertical line), you see that the RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics remain weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price to continue. The bounce occurs due to the Fed hype, AI hype, chip hype, and other theater, and is helped by the positive divergence with the money flow and the oversold stochastics.

The expectation would be a couple more lower lows in the daily time frame to properly set up possie d for a substantive bounce, but the Fed is on deck and anything can happen.

The ADX showed for the last half-year, despite the all-time record highs, the stock market was not in a strong uptrend. It is plain to see looking back that it was nothing but sideways whipsaw choppy slop. However, after the downdraft, the ADX pops above 29 identifying the down move in stocks as a strong trend lower. The ADX is more of a confirmation and lagging indicator so do not get too worked up about it.

The Aroon showed maximum bullishness at the stock market top with all the bulls bullish and all the bears bullish, too. You knew that was not sustainable. But now we have the opposite; a mirror image. Nearly all the bears believe stocks will continue lower and nearly all the bulls also believe same. Note that the Aroon negative cross told you the top was in early February. Did you listen or do you have that post-it note stuck to your forehead?

King Donnie Chump started a major world war in Iran so that is another metric stirring the stock market pot. Trumpski decided on his own to start war, dissing all the Allies except for Israel, but now has his orange tail between his legs asking for help with the mess he made. Donnie may have permanently changed the nature of oil, fertilizer and food flow through the Strait of Hormuz that means all of us will pay a lot more for stuff going forward. Wars can get out of hand and even be caused by 99 harmless balloons like the one hit wonder protest ear-worm song by NENA. 99 Luftballons.

The drop from 7K to 66 hundo-ish is a -5.7% drop so it did not even qualify for a -10% correction as yet let alone a -20% bear market. The dip-buyers have their fingers on the buy button no matter what. There remains excessive bullishness and optimism in the stock market. The AI follies continue with Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the AI and stock market joy will continue forever (see picture below).

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Obviously, Pope Powell controls the stock market today. Chart-wise, in the daily time frame, there is unfinished business below so a move lower in price would be expected to develop proper positive divergence for a proper bounce. If price keeps moving higher, it would be a big win for bulls moving above the 150-day MA at 6754 that would set up the touch of the middle band, or 20-day MA, at 6816. Above that is a sustained relief rally.

The bears need to drive price lower through the 10-mth MA at 6676, then through the 200-day MA at 6612, then through 6550 price support that will set up the major stock market showdown at the 12-mth MA at 6515-6520 for all the marbles. Pope Powell delivers his sermon in a few hours that will move markets and some may lose their religion. Losing My Religion. Hand me that mandolin, Sonny. Are you losing your religion trying to keep up with others in life? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:20 AM EST: The SPX drops to a LOD thus far at 6680 now at 6683. The 10-month MA is at 6673 that warns of serious trouble ahead for the stock market. Chairman Powell is standing in the free buffet line wiping a jelly stain from his necktie as he prepares for his speech.

Note Added 10:25 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The SPX drops to 6673 and must make a bounce or die decision. A failure here means doom and gloom ahead. Pope Powell rides in on a pale green horse.

Note Added 6:06 PM EST: Pope Powell arrives on the scene hoping to instill calm but instead the stock market flushes south. Chairman Powell proclaims a laissez-faire attitude about the Iran War and oil spikes preferring to wait and see how it goes. Wait and see is not a plan. The SPX drops faster than a prom dress at midnight losing -1.4% to 6624 with a LOD at 6621 a hair from the 200-day MA at 6615. Is that close enough for government work? Thus, mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the St Patty's Day gala at the Moose Lodge was rescinded, following the bear scenario above, the 10-mth MA at 6672-6673 failed and next is the test of the 200-day MA at 6615, or, the bulls may be content with the pullback to date and stage a relief rally from right here. A failure of 6615 opens the door for the test of the important long-term 6550 price support. If you bring up the updated daily chart, you see the lower low in price, so the chart indicators can be assessed for positive divergence. All want a bounce except for the MACD line that remains weak and bleak. Stocks will either rally from here in the daily time frame, or perform a jog move over the next 2 days and then rally (up for tomorrow, then down for Friday for a matching price low and the MACD goes possie d so the bottom is in). If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, the possie d slaps you in the face. Price is on the launch pad ready to receive the possie d rocket launch higher on the hourly time basis. The SPX weekly chart is excrement. The RSI and money flow are flat over the last 2 weeks so this behavior will help the daily time frame stage a relief rally for a few days or week or so. The MACD, histogram and stochastics remain weak and bleak, so the weekly chart wants to see a lower low in price on the weekly basis. Remember, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess except the dimension is time instead of space. Thus, stocks, the S&P 500, should rally in the VST (very short term; hours) and ST (short-term; days) but after a few days or week or two of upside joy, should roll over again and make lower lows in price on the weekly basis. The entire year will likely take on a negative bias for stocks. King Donnie Trumpski said that he and his brain trust did not consider that Iran would attack its neighbors. Oh my. That makes you lose confidence in the entire operation. What if a couple of drones are hidden in a 1,000 different spots in Iran and a few are flown each day with warheads? Did they think of that? Did they think that all the oil fields may be set ablaze like a few decades ago? Did they think of all the negative scenarios that were possible in the Strait of Hormuz? What are these dolts doing? Working on a ballroom while the world is burning? The Iran War will continue indefinitely. It would be another Nam. Are we on the Eve of Destruction? Human respect is disintegrating. It's the End of the World, as we know it, and I feel fine. Everybody sing. La-la-la.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 10-Month MA at 6672-6674 is Warning Signal and 12-Month MA at 6512-6518 is Start of Cyclical Bear Market

Having fun yet? King Donnie Trumpski has created the worst supply shock in global history with his war against Iran. Donnie was not ready for the drone warfare or the Strait of Hormuz closure spinning out of control. The US and Israel, with some Allies, are shooting at Iran and Lebanon, and Iran is shooting at its Middle East, or Western Europe as it is called by the people that live there, neighbors. Russia is supplying intelligence to Iran to target US assets. Ukraine is the top drone expert in the world due to the never-ending Ukraine War, that Trumpski was supposed to stop in 24 hours but he failed, and supplying this technology to Israel and the United States. Hey, do you know what? It sounds a lot like World War III.

And we do not even have Country Joe McDonald anymore; he passed away a few days ago. Woodstock. F war (harsh vulgar language). What are we fighting for? Don't ask me I don't give a damn, next stop is Vietnam. Be the first one on your block, to have your son come home in a box. And the world repeats.

Anyhoo, as mentioned in the past, two key metrics are the 10-mth MA at 6674 and the 12-mth MA at 6518. A drop below the 10-mth MA at 6674 is a warning signal that the stock market is in serious trouble and starting to fall apart. Old-timer's watch this number and many algorithms have it programmed into models so it is important. Price is at 6681 as this is typed lower than the 6698 on the chart but above the key 10-mth MA at 6674 so bulls are holding on by a single fingernail. If the SPX finishes today below 6674, and you are long the market holding on, you will get your pants pulled down going forward.

The low is at 6636 so the 10-mth was ruptured, perhaps weakened, you will have to watch. If the failure of the 10-mth sticks, next watch the 12-mth MA at 6518. This is where a longer term cyclical bear market begins. It signals lots of pain, misery and blood and carnage on Wall Street going forward. You know, fun times. Are you ready? At least you know what to watch. The 6674 is key today since price is sneaking around this level to and fro. One side or the other will win today and chart a path of happiness (staying above 6674) ahead or a future of doom and gloom (closing below 6674 trending lower to the 6500's). Ohio. Tin soldiers and Donnie's coming. It feels like Kent State all over again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:14 PM EST: The SPX drops to the 10-mth MA at 6671.84 at the closing bell. Of course it did. You could smell that one coming. Note that as price fell, the moving average calculation continues to adjust so the 10-mth MA sits at 6672 with SPX price at 6673. The LOD, in the last minute of trading, was 6670.40.Thus, the S&P 500 sits exactly at the 10-month MA warning signal at 6672-6673. Bounce or die. Tomorrow is a big decision day. Perhaps a Black Friday on Friday the 13th? The bulls will celebrate and throw confetti into the weekend if the SPX remains above 6672 heading higher. It hints that a relief rally is at hand The bears will rejoice if the SPX drops below 6672 since that is the go signal to start dumping stocks at a faster pace. The 12-mth MA is at 6516 that marks the start of a cyclical bear market. Lots of drama is ahead and the script writer's could not develop a better story line. The stock market pauses at a critical long-term line in the sand, the 10-mth MA at 6672, and the move from this level dictates the fate of the stock market ahead. The bulls and bears are in their camps preparing for a big battle at daybreak. A lonely harmonica echoes across the valley. Both sides listen to the sobering sound of Shenandoah and wonder if they will win, or lose their shirt tomorrow. Black Friday on Friday the 13th has a nice ring to it.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Short-Term Bear Market Continues; Megaphone (Expansion) Pattern

Now hear this! Now hear this! When holding a megaphone there is an urge to shout. You see a lot of jackasses at protests these days using megaphones that they buy, along with a ski mask, at the local Five Below. We can discuss the blue megaphone, or expansion pattern, below.

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 6851 is far more important. It is one of Keystone's key short-term bull/bear indicators and the SPX is in a short-term bear market. The SPX is at the 6776 palindrome with S&P futures down -50. The SPX was in a short-term bear in February until late in the month when the bulls started flexing their muscles (green circle), and managed to find glory for a day and a half, but then fell on their sword, tumbling lower (red circle), and becoming more sick with each passing day (lower lows and lower highs).

The number of touches and tests of the 200 EMA are atypical but impressive for the bears. Each time the bulls tried to take the ball back at the 200 EMA resistance ceiling, they were slapped in the face and turned down again, like Keystone in high school many decades ago when he asked pretty Maggie May for a date. You stole my heart, but I love you anyways. The stock market is nothing but sideways, whipsaw, sawtooth, choppy pig slop this year and ready to roll over and die.

As long as the SPX remains below the 200 EMA, stocks will remain weak and continue dropping. The blue megaphone, or expansion pattern, or megaphone expansion pattern if you prefer, jumps off the chart. It has lots of touches that gives it street cred. The last touch is on the top rail of the megaphone so if price maintains the pattern and continues dropping, the next downside target is 6400-6500. That will get everyone's attention. Rod Stewart shed his rock 'n roll days and instead classed himself up for a long solo career. He's a lady's man. Rod and Ron Isley team up to make the ladies swoon. This Old Heart of Mine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Keystone called the long-term top in the US stock market at the end of February after describing and explaining that 5-month rolling top mess that refused to roll over. Scroll back to study those charts. Time will tell how things play out. The dip-buyers remain active tripping over each other today fearful that they are missing out on the next big rally. Paging Irving Fisher. Paging Irving Fisher. Report to the front trading desk.

The red lines show the top call. Price prints matching and higher highs so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. It took a while for the uncharacteristic top to lock-in, but ALL the indicators finally went neggie d in February as more matching highs were printed. That means a multi-month selloff should begin and March kicks off the bear fun. It will be interesting to watch. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The old-timer's watch the 10-month MA at 6684 since it is an early warning alarm for the US stock market. Equities are in big trouble if the 10-mth MA fails and it did today (yellow circle).

However, King Donnie Trumpski rides in on a pale green horse to save the day. He promises that the Iran War is complete and will be over soon. Donnie proclaims that he may take the Strait of Hormuz and he has picked a successor to run Iran. Oil prices retreated off the highs and stocks took off to the moon intraday on the happy talk. Don't you love crony capitalism filth? In addition, Trumpski kisses Putin's flabby butt and relaxes oil sanctions so comrade Vlad can make more money and kill more Ukrainian women, children and elderly. What a world.

So the 10-mth MA warning alarm at 6684 is sounding forcing Donnie into action. The LOD today is 6636.04 so write that on a Post-It note and stick it on your forehead. It is an important number going forward. The 12-mth MA at 6526 (red circle) is a bear market. At the low today, only a few hours ago, we were only 110 SPX points from a bear market. Price is now about 270 points from the bear market. There is lots of time for price to move lower in a multi-month downturn that may last the bulk of the year.

The blue circles for the volume candles show the pump and dump. Equities are pumped on television and the internet in November taking advantage of Thanksgiving joy. The smart money comes in December to clean the table taking the sucka's money and setting them up to hold the bag. Same-o repeat in January and February. Note how the selling volume candle matches or is higher than the buying candlestick

The smart money pumps stocks on tv and 10 minutes later they are selling the same stocks (in the chart above, pump stocks one month to get Joe Sixpack bulled-up, and then sell the next month distributing the frothy shares to Joe the sucker that anxiously buys at the top). Fortunately, there are always bag-holdin' sucka's available. Are you left holding the bag? Are you a sucka? Go get some more money off Mommy and Daddy, Sonny, and come on back, Keystone thinks you can be a winner next time. Do you think so, Mister? Sure, Sonny, now where's your dough? Let's set you up with some NVDA, META and ORCL (and more shares from the Wall Street investment banks are unloaded to Joe Retail, Barry Bagholder, and Carmelita Sucka). Carmelita, hold me tighter, I think I'm sinking down, and I'm all strung out on heroin, on the outskirts of town.

The roller coaster ride continues. Bulls and bears both claim that the market is Letting Me Down. Pretty Margo. Mama's workin' at the liquor store. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

WTIC West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude Oil Daily Charts; Donnie Trump's Iran War Against Radical Islamists Creates Radical Jump in Oil and Gasoline Prices; Supply Shock Occurs Due to Strait of Hormuz Closure

Oil prices are going to Hell in a handbag over the last week due to King Donnie Trumpski's war against the radical Islamists in Iran. Here is a link to the prior oil charts that explain the last 2 weeks of drama. Conditions worsen as the days went on due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world's oil supply travels. Do not forget the food shipments that need to get through this water chokepoint and also vital commodities such as fertilizers. Nations such as Australia are panicking concerned about urea shipments they require. Down Under is a great tune and the ladies love to groove to the beat. What fun.

At Christmastime, all was groovy with low gasoline prices. Keystone was walking around with mistletoe taped on the end of a selfie stick and life was good. Using oil and gasoline prices as his main selling point, Trump claimed that all was fixed with inflation. King Donnie would deny that food and other prices remain high and moving higher (inflation) calling the claims fake news. Of course he did. He proclaimed that lower prices rule the day citing gasoline and eggs (the only two prices that did subside slightly).

The orange one covered himself in front with the fig leaf of lower oil and gasoline prices and covered his backside with a carton of eggs held vertically. Everything else under the sun that Americans buy, including food, homes, utilities and insurance, is higher or remaining high in price (rampant inflation likely morphing into horrible stagflation like the 1970's), and Donnie's fig leaf just fell to the ground. No one wants to see that.

Gasoline prices have a profound impact on consumer sentiment that effects consumer spending. People are not in a good mood as they watch prices at the pump move higher. They know that they have to tighten the purse strings and can no longer spend as they did in prior weeks. Of course, this behavior negatively impacts the economy and markets.

The WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) oil and Brent Crude oil daily charts above show the radical spikes higher in price as the fight against the radical Islamists in the Iran War escalates. Oil is a big deal due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, but the food and fertilizer problems will also take the main stage going forward.

WTIC oil rises from 55 to 92 since Christmastime, so not even 3 months, a huge +67%. WTIC oil tags 92.61 and sits at 91.27 ready for the drama to reignite Sunday evening into Monday morning as markets reopen. Brent oil rises from 59 to 95, a bigtime +61% gain since the holidays. Brent oil runs higher to 94.55 and sits at 92.87. Considering that price is in the 90's, one hundo will likely print in the days ahead maybe on Monday depending on how the Iran War goes this weekend. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so once price exceeded 80 for a few days last week, the 120 level is on the table.

Oil is experiencing a supply shock. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz cuts off 20% of the world's oil supply so bad things are going to happen. When there is less of a commodity, prices go up. You remember supply and demand from high school, right? Or don't they teach this stuff anymore? Less of a commodity can occur through a supply shock where there is a problem with production, or shipping, and the number of available widgets, or oil, are limited, or, a demand shock where there is such a high demand for a product, like a toy at Christmastime that flies off the shelves, that prices jump higher.

The parabolic (vertical) spikes higher shown in the charts above are a supply shock since the amount of available oil is decreasing each day the closing of the strait continues. However, what happens with all commodities, is the parabolic spike, then the radical return to Earth. As a supply shock continues, and the price for the widget, or oil, runs higher and higher, people say 'no mas'. If a company needs a particular part for what they produce, but the price is too high, the business may temporary close until prices recede. A supply shock will then turn into a demand shock. If oil runs above 120, it will no longer be wanted by many that close businesses or in the case of higher gasoline, consumers will stay home and watch television. Once prices subside, demand and supply will return to normal levels, but this will likely not occur until the Iran War is resolved.

Donnie "Two-Week" Trumpski, where the answer to every question about deadlines and timelines is "two weeks," said the war would be resolved in 2 to 4 weeks. Not anymore. As of last evening, now it is 4 to 6 weeks. The world will hurt bigtime economically if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for the next couple months. Only one oil tanker made it through the strait over the last 24 hours.

As a rule of thumb, each 10 buck increase in WTIC oil results in about a 25-cent pop in gasoline price at the pump. Most folks have already seen a jump of 30 cents across America over the last few days. There is almost a 40-dollar pop in oil due to Donnie's war, so that would equate to about a buck pop in gasoline prices. With about 30 cents in the bag, expect another 70 cents higher in gasoline over the coming days and couple weeks.

For example, gasoline in Da Burgh (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA), was about $3.20 during the holidays now at $3.50. It would not be surprising to see gasoline at the pump tag $4 and higher over the coming days and couple weeks. For a 20-gallon fuel tank on a car or light truck, it cost you about $65 to fill-up during the holidays. In a few days or week or two, it will cost you over $85 to fill the same gas tank. Let's all Shake, Rattle and Roll with the price of oil. Everybody dance, come on honey, I believe to my soul, you're the devil and now I know, the harder I work, the faster my money goes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/8/26, Sunday Evening, at 7:00 PM EST: WTIC oil gushes +16 dollars higher, +11%, to 106.60. Wow. One hundo did not take long. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. Oil prices are sinking the stock market ship. Brent oil pops 15 bucks, +16%, to 107.40.  UAE and Kuwait are lowering production. Saudi Arabian oil tanks are filled to the brim with oil sloshing over the top so production will have to be pulled back. Speaking by a guy that has designed, built, and operated oil refineries, LNG plants and other chemical facilities all over the world, the last thing you want to do is shut down a plant. The countries under Iranian fire will probably try to remain in hot shutdowns (hot idle hoping they can bring the equipment back up quickly) but that can only go on for a few days before you will have to shutdown the equipment and furnaces and so forth and that is bad. When you start back up, there will be many headaches to handle; it is the nature of the industrial beast. Oil is in a supply shock because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The world is awash in oil and does not have a problem with overall oil supply. The problem is moving it somewhere with the strait closed. Once storage tanks are full, production must slow or stop since there is no where to put the product. 

Note Added 3/8/26 at 7:20 PM EST: WTIC oil 106.87. Brent oil 107.54.

Note Added 3/8/26 at 8:22 PM EST: WTIC oil 107.59. Brent oil is at 108.16 now sporting a 108-handle. S&P futures are down -120 points at the lows.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 5:00 AM EST: WTIC and Brent pop above 110 minutes after that last post last evening. Overnight, Brent oil jumps to 120. World leaders, incompetents, tell each other they need to meet to discuss the oil prices and potentially release reserves (that will only be a temporary reprieve and oil prices will then resume a higher trend once the magician's trick dissipates). Nonetheless, the happy talk that Help Is On The Way sends oil prices back towards one hundo. For now, 'help' is in the form of 2,000 pound bombs, Big BLU, that shake your soul and make your heart skip when they hit.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 8:35 AM EST: WTIC oil 102. Brent oil 103. King Donnie Trumpski is in the Lincoln Bedroom hiding under the bed. The FedEx guy needs Donnie's signature for the weekly delivery of orange make-up.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 8:35 AM EST: WTIC oil 103.10. Brent oil 104.61. S&P futures -80. VIX 31.81. Everyone is watching the 'yippy' bond market as Trumpski calls it when things are looking dicey and intervention may be required. Secretary Bessent is quiet these days; he just wants to make it to late November, after the mid-term elections, to likely announce his departure. First, he may have to deal with a credit crisis where his actions and outcomes will be etched in US history.

Note Added 3/10/26 at 4:00 AM EST: King Donnie cannot take the market heat so he grabs a microphone and proclaims that the Iran War is almost completely done or will be "soon," in a few days. He proclaims that he may take over the Strait of Hormuz. King Donnie decrees that he has selected the next leader of Iran. Trumpski talks to his pal Putin relaxing oil sanctions on Mother Russia so Vlad will have more money to kill more Ukrainian women, children and elderly. Oil prices plummet on the news that the Iran War is almost over and all things will be groovy in a few days. Stocks reverse the intraday losses catapulting higher. Donnie will have to deliver over the coming days. It is fascinating that people do not understand that drones will destroy many things going forward including historic sites, dams, power plants, chemical plants, LNG terminals and storage tanks, ships, aiports, buildings, landmarks, anything, everything. Drones can bomb and explode all of humanity back into the Stone Age. Suicide bombers will not be in vogue anymore. They will exchange their bomb belts for a cushy seat on a sofa because they will become suicide drone pilots. It is a Brave New World. WTIC oil 86.66. Brent oil 90.77. The ominous 666.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side today at SPX 6805. It is no real surprise considering that the stock market is choppy slop this year. SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction. Jobs report is on tap in the morning.

Keybot the Quant

KOSPI South Korea Index and EWY ETF Daily Chart; South Korea Stocks Crash -20% into Despair

When you mention the KOSPI, you are really talking two stocks that make up 80% of the index; Samsung and SK Hynix. Of course, these two are AI darlings so they could do no wrong; traders bot at any price since artificial intelligence is the future. Hyundai Motor and LG are other recognizable names in the KOSPI.

In only 3 days, South Korea crashes into a bear market the KOSPI crashing -20% and the South Korea EWY ETF crashes -19%. The Uber/UT driver in Seoul that put last week's entire paycheck into the stock market, that the guy on television said was supposed to be guaranteed riches, got so worked up at the money he was losing he drove off the road into a tree. Leverage always plays a role in these types of crashes. Over-leveraged traders that were not paying attention are now walking around wearing a barrel.

The EWY bounced after the crash but there is likely far more wood to chop. The KOSPI is so close to the 50-day MA at 4951 it is worthy of a touch as well as the lower band at 4763. The EWY chart shows how there remains so much money floating around in the world that the dip-buyers could not wait to jump back in. This euphoric and complacent spirit must be busted going forward.

South Korea will be trading in about an hour here on the East Coast on Wednesday evening. The KOSPI chart is updated EOD (end of day). There is a lot of soul-searching going on in Seoul tonight. Are you a Soul Man? Good evening all of you fine ladies and gentlemen.... it is show time...... fresh off the automobile tour........ from Calumet City, Illinois,....give them a big welcome..... the Blues Brothers!! 

Everyone is hyped up on the AI garbage but you keep looking around and see buptkis. AI produces mindless videos for doom scrolling, can write a song or poem or draw a picture, and write reports and aggregate information taking low-wage jobs away from people. It is a large language model that promises to change the world. Believe it when you see it. Artificial intelligence has been around for over 3 years already. Where is the super-hyped AI magical world that the Silicon Valley kids in their fleece sweaters, born from wealthy families, promised? Where's the beef? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/5/26: The KOSPI gains +10% as traders trip over each other to buy Samsung and SK Hynix with both fists. Didn't you hear? AI is the next great thing. After 4 years and billions of dollars that have gone poof, where are all these great new things? Higher electric bills, longer waits for customer service as real people are let go, and loss of programming jobs are created by AI but this is not good. Isn't new technology supposed to bring an improvement to daily life? The first question Keystone will ask you is if your report was written by AI. If so, he will throw it in the garbage. Why would anyone take the time to read something that the person handing it to you did not think it was that important for him/her to write it?

Note Added 3/9/26: The KOSPI pukes -7% as Samsung and SK Hynix are thrown overboard.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side today at SPX 6866. The sideways choppy whipsaw slop continues this year and we are in March already. Bears won yesterday with weaker chips and copper. The bulls win today pulling semi's and the red metal back into their camp sending stocks higher. The SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 bull/bear lines in the sand tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

Keybot the Quant