Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 6620. The choppy slop continues this year. S&P futures are circling the drain but chips and the NYA index will tell the path forward.

Keybot the Quant

SAP Weekly Chart; Is AI the Second Coming?

How's the AI hype going? The key company that comes to mind when gauging how useful AI applications may be in the future is SAP. Keystone worked with SAP software 25 years ago when they came on the scene. It was funny back then since anyone that worked directly for SAP would take offense if you called the company and software 'sap'. In America, a sap is a fool, dolt, jackass, and/or idiot like the corrupt republocrat and demopublican politicians. The name is pronounced as its initials; 'S, A, P'.

The kiss of death opening a downward path for AI-related stocks was a couple-three weeks ago when a couple companies using SAP software had made comments that the AI stuff may currently not be worth the extra costs. The companies did not see much benefit in productivity versus the disruption and moving to something new or an add on to existing platforms. Good Night, Irene.

If a premier software giant in making businesses run efficiency is having trouble selling their AI wares, the benefits of artificial intelligence are likely much further out in the future. The chart says it all. The AI hype is in full swing for about 3-1/2 years already. Time flies. And Emperor Jensen at NVDA and others continue to profess great things and promise magical kingdoms once AI, that is nothing more than a large language information aggregator, is implemented. Everyone is still waiting. Jensen said in the speech the other day that (software) applications will be the key for AI going forward.

The upside of the party is fun with traders and investors tripping over each other to buy shares. Everyone wants a piece of the action and to taste the favorite flavor of the day. The party is in full swing into the beginning of last year when people do start looking around and asking, "Where's the beef?" SAP plummets over the last 9 months losing half its value. Joe Sixpack, Bonita Bagholder, Sammy Sucka and Carmelita Retail bot into the hype last year just in time to be left holding the bag. Suckers all.

In 2003, Keystone was brought in to help an engineering company that was struggling. After marking up a drawing to the point it looked like someone bled all over it, Keystone told the managers that it was the most shoddy engineering he has ever seen. They did not like that. At the same time, the company was trying to implement SAP software to improve efficiency and company operations from sales  through manufacturing, production and shipping. It was a mess. It was obvious that they did not understand the work flow through their own business. You cannot make something efficient if it is a pile of pig slop.

After Keystone's descriptive and derogatory language to the managers, he figured they would show him the door so he went back to his office and surfed the internet waiting for the news to hit the road. The manager comes in and says the owner/president wants to talk. Wow, they are going to send Keystone off with a big kick in the pants by the big guy himself. The owner instead told Keystone that he knows he has a problem with the engineering as well as the operations of the facility and asked him to stay on and help them fix their problems and implement the SAP ERP platform. The president set Keystone up in an empty office next to him on the second floor. That was a sweet gig for the next couple years.

Back then, many businesses operated by the seat of their pants. As employees were added, company duties became a gray area with many people doing many different tasks and jobs overlapping. Orders would come in and be slowly walked through the mess of a system. The first step was organizing the company, all the jobs, writing job descriptions, identifying the work flow through the company, etc... After that, the SAP software was far easier to implement and for it to make a difference. The company lost about $3 million when first trying to implement SAP but as it worked out over the following years, it definitely made them a better company and it is thriving to this day and double the size it was back then.

What is the lesson in all this? Years ago, companies were very inefficient but not anymore. Businesses have gotten rid of dead weight, implemented software such as SAP, and everything runs lean and mean. Companies starting out nowadays are lean and mean and starting with business software platforms in place from the get-go. It is a different world.

Now AI, the Second Coming, is supposed to be part two of this great efficiency awakening. Probably not. Some departments in companies are down to one person already. You have to leave someone in each department to at least turn on the lights and make coffee. The benefits of SAP business software were obvious from 2000 to 2015 but by 2020 companies have that game down pat. The work flow from the sales department to manufacturing is smooth for most companies nowadays.

Would spending lots of money on new SAP software, plus the disruptions of implementing the new methods, make enough of a difference to justify the cost. Some are already saying no. Why mess with something that already runs fine? If each Friday you punch a button on the keyboard and all the reports print out effortlessly, that are already set up in the system and on printers, why would you mess with all that for the sake of adding new software that produces the same report? If you can cut your lawn with a push mower and it takes an hour, but you can do it in 45 minutes on a lawn tractor, is it justified to buy a $5,000 piece of equipment instead of a $300 push mower? The evolution of AI in all its many facets will be interesting going forward.

A smart manager will nix the implementation of AI now. Why be a guinea pig? Let them work the bugs out and develop AI software that will actually make a difference. A smart manager will tell the AI salesman to check back in a couple years. If your company is running efficiently, and everyone is happy and making money, why mess with it? The same idea holds for buying a new car model. Never buy a new model car in its first year because there will be bugs and problems. Ditto the second year model. But if you like the style and want to own one, buy the third year model because by then any bugs are already fixed.

Artificial intelligence will have its day in the sun, but it will likely take far longer than the current group think believes especially from the enterprise resource planning (ERP) perspective. AI's main function will be for military, government and surveillance applications. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross Dictate if Stocks Fall into a Cyclical Bear Market

Okay, it was all fun and games, until now. It is time to separate the men from the boys. The two most important metrics of the United States stock market (the S&P 500 index; SPX), are the SPX 12-month MA and NYA 40-week MA crosses. If you were on a desert island, you would know if the stock market was in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market pattern by these two parameters.

The SPX failed at the 12-mth MA at 6502 on Friday and the NYA lost the 40-wk MA at 21661 both ushering in a cyclical bear market and the big flush lower in stocks. How's all those SPX 8K and higher calls by the Wall Street analysts going? It is customary to give out hats at certain milestone levels for the SPX or Dow like "SPX 7K" and "Dow 50K" but this is always on the way up. Why? It should work in reverse so in the future we should receive "SPX 6K" and SPX 5K" and even "SPX 4K" hats if we venture back to these lows. Right?

As the Friday session played out, the bulls fought like Hell to regain the 6502 level to keep the growling and slashing bears at bay. This makes the call easy going forward.

If the NYA regains 21661 out of the gate tomorrow and moving higher, the selloff is over and a recovery rally is starting with rainbows and puppies going forward, despite the Iran War where King Donnie Chump changes his plan and strategy, is there one?, every 10 minutes. Trumpski said thing are wrapping up but now he is sending Marines and threatening to blow-up Iran's power plants. Huh? What? Confusion and chaos continues just like when little King Donnie was handling the COVID-19 pandemic. People have short memories.

Now Putin, that Chump idolizes, says he sides with Iran. The World War III dominoes fall into place one at a time. We will find out this week if the orange head has created a mess in the Middle East. Donnie is realizing that he may not be the one in control of ending the war he started. Trumpski did not form a coalition of nations or explain to Americans what he was doing, why he thinks Iran is a big threat, or the exact plan and mission of the war. It remains a mish-mash pile of slop with Donnie reacting to each crisis that surfaces as a result of his own actions.

Keep an ear open after 4 PM EST this afternoon because King Donnie will likely talk to try and manipulate the markets. Futures open at 6 PM EST so you can see what may be in store for markets to begin the week and how Asia will trade.

If the SPX falls back below 6502, the cyclical bear market begins and carnage and a downward bias in stocks will continue for many weeks and months forward. Choose your poison. Poison Ivy playing lead guitar. Mad Daddy. The Goo Goo Muck song in the modern-day Wednesday Addams stuff is a resurrected Cramps tune. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

BPSPX Bullish Percent Index and SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts at or Near Washout

The bullish percent index for the SPX is at 35 indicating a washout at hand. The six percentage-point reversals on the BPSPX daily chart are important as well as the 70% and 35% levels. On the way up, a move above 70 is an extra bullish signal but at the same time stocks are getting at lofty heights.

On the way down, 35 is a key level that indicates a washout at hand. A majority of traders and investors have finally turned negative after all the dips were bot for many weeks. Now it is sell the rips instead of buy the dips. Everyone expects stocks to collapse, so typically, equities will defy the consensus and stage a relief rally and the pops and rallies in bear markets can be very strong to the upside.

The stock market is teetering on the edge of a cyclical bear market with some metrics saying yes and some saying no so give it a few more days or week or two. The BPSPX bottoms coincide with the SPX bottoms since panic and fear is rampant and some investors proclaim they want out and will never play the stock market again. Thank you very much, I'll take those shares.

The Iran War is a wildcard since stocks move on the noise. King Donnie Chump proclaims that the war is wrapped up in Iran and he can close things out--as he sends Marines over to the war theater. Huh? What? He has no plan, or changes his mind sometimes the same day, and then he moans that other countries are not helping. He wanted help in the Strait of Hormuz since he is in over his orange head, then berates everyone, now says he needs no help and others can take care of the doggy dirt mess he created. That's Our Donnie. Just like Daddy took care of everything for little silver spoon Donnie.

Speaking from the perspective of a chemical engineer that has designed, built, and operated these LNG liquefier and terminal plants, as well as many other important processing facilities worldwide, it is heartbreaking to see the destruction. It will take a few years to rebuild. But barring any horrible news about the Iran War, and especially if there is good news, stocks should create a bottom any day and a recovery rally will begin. If not Monday, then it is likely to begin sometime next week.

Can stocks still retreat? Of course they can but the BPSPX tells you that the selling is way overdone for now and a relief rally is needed to digest the losses. If you bring up the BPSPX daily chart, you see the tumble lower. That chart has to reverse back up by six percentage-points to provide a bullish confirmation signal for the recovery rally.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Aunt Agatha told Keystone to be quiet at the St Patty's day banquet, from 35, a move up by the BPSPX to 41 would be a confirmation signal for the bull rally in progress. Monday is key since there will be developments on the weekend. Also, the orange one will provide comments between 4 PM EST and 6 PM EST on Sunday, ahead of the futures markets, to try and manipulate prices and sentiment. He must think we all are Dumb. Or maybe just happy? I'm not like them. Kurt was dead 5 months after the Unplugged concert. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500, CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Panic and Fear Finally Starting to Appear

After a drop in the SPX from 7K to 6624, a nearly 4 hundo point loss, -5.5%, panic and fear is finally starting to appear in the stock market. Sometimes people do not believe so you have to shove it down their throats until they gag on it. Then they believe. The stock market complacency and uber bullishness was a constant theme late last year into this year. This was proven by the low put/call ratios (red circles).

When the year started, there was a tinge of fear with some traders worried about a repeat of the prior year when stocks fell after everyone proclaimed nothing but upside ahead a la Irving Fisher in 1929. That spike in panic and fear created the rally shown by the green bar on the SPX chart. That rally was a run from a bottom at 6824 to 6985 let's call it a 160 points.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the spring cotillion this Friday, the start of year fractal may repeat now. That would create a rally from 6624 to 6784 if it follows the previous fractal.

Thus, tread carefully if short since a relief rally is likely at hand. As previously explained, the hourly and daily SPX charts are encouraging for a relief rally due to the positive divergence, and a couple chart indicators on the weekly chart agree with, and will help create, that buoyancy. However, indicators on the SPX weekly chart remain weak and bleak so lower lows in SPX price are desired going forward on the weekly basis.

Thus, Keystone has to work on his thus's if he wants invited to the April Fool's Day bash at the Amvets Club, stocks will likely stage a relief rally bounce over the coming days but weakness should reappear a week or two out. Any trades depend on your time frames. If you are willing to hold your shorts for a while and endure a relief rally, that may be strong, pay no mind since the additional weakness ahead in the weekly time frame will take care of that trade in the future.

If a shorter term trader, take some profits on shorts and flip them long but you must be nimble if playing long and keep close attention. The Iran War is not going well and things may go to Hell in a handbasket at anytime. King Donnie Chump, that started a major world war, now is telling Iran and Israel to deescalate. Trumpski is in a mess and in way over his orange head. Donnie threatens everyone daily and the bloviations from the 80-year old showman have less of an impact. Iran plans to keep attacking ignoring Trumpski's words. Chump started a war that he can no longer control or finish.

For today and the next few days, however, be alert to a relief rally starting. When the Whip Comes Down. There is no cooler guitar player than Keith Richards. Humorously, at this point, the drugs and alcohol is what keeps him alive. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:46 PM EST: The SPX drops -0.3% to 6606. The LOD is 6557. Price came down for an initial look at the key 6550 horizontal price support, and bounced. The 200-day MA support gives way at 6619 that now becomes resistance. Price is making a bounce or die decision at the 200. If it bounces, watch the 10-mth MA resistance at 6665. The SPX 2-hour chart is positively diverged wanting to see a bounce. The SPX daily chart is possie d sans the MACD that remains weak and bleak and may want a jog move of 2 days to place the bottom in the daily time frame (up tomorrow, down Monday for the bottom with MACD going possie d). It is same-o analysis. Stocks should bottom in daily time frame anytime now through Monday. Today's low at the critical 6550 may have been the bottom. The rally will be in the daily time frame only since the weekly time frame will eventually want lower lows in SPX price on the weekly basis going forward. There is happy talk that the Iran War may end quickly. Someone says this every day. That Joe Kent dude that quit Trumpski's security team looks like Eddie Munster. King Donnie needs asked how many drones are remaining in Iran and in how many locations across that vast nation? It tells you how long the war will last. Is there two drones parked at 1,000 different locations around Iran to be used anytime? if so, it is another Nam. For now, people want to feel Happy. If anyone wonders what rock 'n roll is, that's it.

Note Added 3/21/26: The bears pull out the knives and the blood flows on Wall and Broad. The SPX collapses -100 points, -1.5%, to 6506, on Friday, 3/20/26. LOD 6473. The SPX takes out the Thanksgiving low. All of you that bot stock for your children at Christmastime and during the holidays gave them a gift that is losing value fast. Mommy, I wish you would have given me the e-bike instead. Junior, do not forget, you are in it for the long-term. Mommy, in the long-term, I'm dead. Humorously, people ask what is a long-term investment? That is a short-term trade that went the wrong way. No one is laughing about the ongoing Iran War and the likelihood that high gasoline prices will remain for a couple years or at least many months. People that use their vehicles for work are screwed. Diesel is over 5 bucks. Oh well, time to pull out the gasoline syphon. Back in the energy crisis the late 1970's, times were tough so folks would syphon gasoline out of cars and put it in their car. You would suck real hard on the end of the tube to get the syphon going and sometimes be spitting out gasoline--but you did not care since you were saving a few bucks thieving off someone else. There was then better syphons available that have a little hand pump that can begin the suction and syphon and get the gasoline flowing into the container, while looking over your shoulder for the cops. There is a lot of rhyming with the 1970's that is occurring these days. Sadly, helicopters went down in the desert when Jimmy Farter tried to save the hostages in Iran and fast forward 50 years, a refueling plane goes down in the desert when Donnie Chump tries to destroy the radical Islamist leadership in Iran.

ADBE Adobe Daily and Weekly Charts; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violations

Keystone puts on the Kevlar gloves as he attempts to catch the Adobe falling knife. He also has Band-Aids and gauze available if the knife penetrates. Talk about a piece of excrement. ADBE was a stock market darling a long time, until it wasn't. ADBE crashes from 550 to 250 in 1-1/2 years a -55% drubbing. That's gonna leave a mark. Adobe was ridden hard and put away wet. Nasty. She asks, When Will I Be Loved? Linda had the one in a million voice.

And of course what happens when you are down and out? Yep. Someone comes along and kicks you in the face. It is always darkest before, it turns completely black. At the end of last year, fear ran through the internet stocks and private credit tickers due to AI disruption fears. Adobe fell off a cliff at that point and the investors that held on to the Adobe piece of crap through thick or thin finally gave up and threw in the towel. You know what happens when everyone gives up on a stock, right? It is usually, but not always, time to buy it.

Note that a nice bottom was in for ADBE at Thanksgiving and a positive divergence launch was in play (thin green lines). Price pops for a couple weeks and flattens in December but the bad AI news hit and she fell out of bed. Positive divergence is in play now across all indicators for both the daily and weekly charts (green lines) so a bounce should be on tap. Keep watching the money flow on the weekly chart. It is possie d but showing further possible weakness due to the exodus from the stock. If money flow makes a lower low, ADBE may need to jog for a couple weeks at these lows before rallying.

Note the purple arrows on the weekly chart showing the tight standard deviation bands. Tight bands signal a huge move on tap but do not predict direction. Bloop. The squeeze was down the rabbit hole of despair.

Price violates the lower band on the weekly so a move to the middle band at 305, and falling, is on the table. The daily chart barely tagged the lower band but it is good enough for government work. Price may still want to come down to officially tag 240 with a big ole sloppy wet kiss like pretty little Bunny provides. Bunny is a Labrador.

Adobe was taken to the shed out back behind the abode and beaten severely, however, the worst may be over. A bounce would be expected over the short-term (a few weeks). ADBE should bounce from here due to the possie d explained above but if not, it should bounce over the coming days. Simply make sure the possie d remains in place since that is the fuel that will shoot price higher.

Keystone bot ADBE long this afternoon during the stock market beating and will give her a whirl for a little while. The longs that have held on to the beaten-down and frazzled stock the last few months are asking pretty Adobe to not hurt me, don't hurt me, no more. What Is Love by Haddaway with shuffle dancers. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/21/26: The week ends with a bigtime stock market selloff with traders running for their lives. ADBE pops almost +1% in the down tape but is down a smidge on the week. Adobe should begin receiving its possie d rocket launch.

Note Added 3/26/26: ADBE and the whole software sector are sold off with nothing spared. ADBE drops down to 237. AI promises more gains that will negatively impact software companies. ADBE will take a couple more weeks to place a choppy bottom since money flow slipped lower due to long-term holders finally giving up the ship. Same-o with WDAY so look at that one as a potential long. Others to consider washed-out and on deck for a recovery rally are ESTC, SNOW, NCNO, APPN and others. The Iran War dominates sentiment these days.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Stock Market Awaits Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference; Critical 10-Month MA at 6673 Tested Again; Stocks Tank After Powell Displays Laissez-Faire Attitude about Iran War and Oil Spikes

It has been a multi-month period of sideways choppy slop resolving to the downside. Keystone has described this atypical stock market top since the Fall. It was unique. Note that any of you that bot stocks on the long side in December, January or February, have lost money. You're a sucka. It's funny. Write "Sucka" on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. Now you have to explain to your significant other why you lost money when you promised that vast riches were guaranteed, like the guy on television said.

The rolling top (light blue line) would fit a french curve nicely. Many of you never used a french curve. In charting, back when we used lanterns for light and wrote with quill pens (joking), a graph could be curve-fit using a french curve to give it a smooth appearance and help with analysis. Amazon still sells them, however, young men, and old men, are thinking of different French curves like Brigitte. 

The top was well-forecasted and explained in advance with the red rising wedge, negative divergence, upper band violation, price extension, uber bullishness, etc... For a half-year, the US stock market has only moved through a 450-point range at 6550-7000 that is only a 7% to 8% range. Doesn't it feel like the stock market is in the stratosphere due to non-stop television and internet hype? Well, it is not.

Price drops to the orange line that is just shy of filling that orange gap from November. Price tests the level again four days later and bounces. The couple-day rally takes the SPX up to the 150-day MA at 6754 where it hits its head and falls back down. The 150 has street cred going forward. Keeping price below is important for bears and moving above would be a bull victory. The slope of the 150 tells you if the stock or index is in a cyclical bull or bear pattern. The 150 still slopes higher by a hair so the cyclical bull still gets the nod but when price is below, it will flatten and drag the 150 down creating a negative slope and a cyclical bear market.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band, also the 20-day MA, at 6816 is on the table going forward. Price also bounced off the lower band on the weekly chart. Previous charts explain the importance of the 10-month MA at 6676 and the 12-month MA at 6515-6520 that would usher-in a bear market. Price violated the 10 but recovered off this key line in the sand. It would be interesting to see another test of the 10-mth MA at 6676.

The SPX is waiting on Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High this afternoon and tell international traders how to trade. Stocks are typically higher 80% of the time the day or so in front of the Fed decision and traders did not waste any time buying the market out of the gate on Monday front-running the expected positivity. Interestingly, the new moon peaks tonight at 9:30 PM EST the darkest overnight time of the month. Stocks are typically soft, about two-thirds of the time, moving through the new moon. First day of spring is Friday.

The brown lines show an H&S pattern so head at 7K and neck line at 68 hundo is 200 difference so a rupture of 6800 would open the door to 6600 that was almost achieved some will say close enough for government work. Price was in the neighborhood of the 200-day MA at 6612 when it bounced. The SPX should show respect and actually touch the 200 to make a bounce or die decision.

The 6550 (dark blue line) is bigtime important price support and represents the entire stock market from September forward. Obviously, a new age begins below 6550 and it is not the Golden Age the orange head brags about; instead it is the New Gilded Age.

The neggie d spankdown occurs in the daily time frame with price dropping and the bulls and dip-buyers are hoping they can catch a break and stop the drop and begin a relief rally. If you follow the lowest price point lower (thin black vertical line), you see that the RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics remain weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price to continue. The bounce occurs due to the Fed hype, AI hype, chip hype, and other theater, and is helped by the positive divergence with the money flow and the oversold stochastics.

The expectation would be a couple more lower lows in the daily time frame to properly set up possie d for a substantive bounce, but the Fed is on deck and anything can happen.

The ADX showed for the last half-year, despite the all-time record highs, the stock market was not in a strong uptrend. It is plain to see looking back that it was nothing but sideways whipsaw choppy slop. However, after the downdraft, the ADX pops above 29 identifying the down move in stocks as a strong trend lower. The ADX is more of a confirmation and lagging indicator so do not get too worked up about it.

The Aroon showed maximum bullishness at the stock market top with all the bulls bullish and all the bears bullish, too. You knew that was not sustainable. But now we have the opposite; a mirror image. Nearly all the bears believe stocks will continue lower and nearly all the bulls also believe same. Note that the Aroon negative cross told you the top was in early February. Did you listen or do you have that post-it note stuck to your forehead?

King Donnie Chump started a major world war in Iran so that is another metric stirring the stock market pot. Trumpski decided on his own to start war, dissing all the Allies except for Israel, but now has his orange tail between his legs asking for help with the mess he made. Donnie may have permanently changed the nature of oil, fertilizer and food flow through the Strait of Hormuz that means all of us will pay a lot more for stuff going forward. Wars can get out of hand and even be caused by 99 harmless balloons like the one hit wonder protest ear-worm song by NENA. 99 Luftballons.

The drop from 7K to 66 hundo-ish is a -5.7% drop so it did not even qualify for a -10% correction as yet let alone a -20% bear market. The dip-buyers have their fingers on the buy button no matter what. There remains excessive bullishness and optimism in the stock market. The AI follies continue with Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the AI and stock market joy will continue forever (see picture below).

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Obviously, Pope Powell controls the stock market today. Chart-wise, in the daily time frame, there is unfinished business below so a move lower in price would be expected to develop proper positive divergence for a proper bounce. If price keeps moving higher, it would be a big win for bulls moving above the 150-day MA at 6754 that would set up the touch of the middle band, or 20-day MA, at 6816. Above that is a sustained relief rally.

The bears need to drive price lower through the 10-mth MA at 6676, then through the 200-day MA at 6612, then through 6550 price support that will set up the major stock market showdown at the 12-mth MA at 6515-6520 for all the marbles. Pope Powell delivers his sermon in a few hours that will move markets and some may lose their religion. Losing My Religion. Hand me that mandolin, Sonny. Are you losing your religion trying to keep up with others in life? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:20 AM EST: The SPX drops to a LOD thus far at 6680 now at 6683. The 10-month MA is at 6673 that warns of serious trouble ahead for the stock market. Chairman Powell is standing in the free buffet line wiping a jelly stain from his necktie as he prepares for his speech.

Note Added 10:25 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The SPX drops to 6673 and must make a bounce or die decision. A failure here means doom and gloom ahead. Pope Powell rides in on a pale green horse.

Note Added 6:06 PM EST: Pope Powell arrives on the scene hoping to instill calm but instead the stock market flushes south. Chairman Powell proclaims a laissez-faire attitude about the Iran War and oil spikes preferring to wait and see how it goes. Wait and see is not a plan. The SPX drops faster than a prom dress at midnight losing -1.4% to 6624 with a LOD at 6621 a hair from the 200-day MA at 6615. Is that close enough for government work? Thus, mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the St Patty's Day gala at the Moose Lodge was rescinded, following the bear scenario above, the 10-mth MA at 6672-6673 failed and next is the test of the 200-day MA at 6615, or, the bulls may be content with the pullback to date and stage a relief rally from right here. A failure of 6615 opens the door for the test of the important long-term 6550 price support. If you bring up the updated daily chart, you see the lower low in price, so the chart indicators can be assessed for positive divergence. All want a bounce except for the MACD line that remains weak and bleak. Stocks will either rally from here in the daily time frame, or perform a jog move over the next 2 days and then rally (up for tomorrow, then down for Friday for a matching price low and the MACD goes possie d so the bottom is in). If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, the possie d slaps you in the face. Price is on the launch pad ready to receive the possie d rocket launch higher on the hourly time basis. The SPX weekly chart is excrement. The RSI and money flow are flat over the last 2 weeks so this behavior will help the daily time frame stage a relief rally for a few days or week or so. The MACD, histogram and stochastics remain weak and bleak, so the weekly chart wants to see a lower low in price on the weekly basis. Remember, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess except the dimension is time instead of space. Thus, stocks, the S&P 500, should rally in the VST (very short term; hours) and ST (short-term; days) but after a few days or week or two of upside joy, should roll over again and make lower lows in price on the weekly basis. The entire year will likely take on a negative bias for stocks. King Donnie Trumpski said that he and his brain trust did not consider that Iran would attack its neighbors. Oh my. That makes you lose confidence in the entire operation. What if a couple of drones are hidden in a 1,000 different spots in Iran and a few are flown each day with warheads? Did they think of that? Did they think that all the oil fields may be set ablaze like a few decades ago? Did they think of all the negative scenarios that were possible in the Strait of Hormuz? What are these dolts doing? Working on a ballroom while the world is burning? The Iran War will continue indefinitely. It would be another Nam. Are we on the Eve of Destruction? Human respect is disintegrating. It's the End of the World, as we know it, and I feel fine. Everybody sing. La-la-la.

Note Added 7:46 PM EST: The SPX drops -0.3% to 6606. The LOD is 6557. Price came down for an initial look at the key 6550 horizontal price support, and bounced. The 200-day MA support gives way at 6619 that now becomes resistance. Price is making a bounce or die decision at the 200. If it bounces, watch the 10-mth MA resistance at 6665. The SPX 2-hour chart is positively diverged wanting to see a bounce. The SPX daily chart is possie d sans the MACD that remains weak and bleak and may want a jog move of 2 days to place the bottom in the daily time frame (up tomorrow, down Monday for the bottom with MACD going possie d). It is same-o analysis. Stocks should bottom in daily time frame anytime now through Monday. Today's low at the critical 6550 may have been the bottom. The rally will be in the daily time frame only since the weekly time frame will eventually want lower lows in SPX price on the weekly basis going forward. There is happy talk that the Iran War may end quickly. Someone says this every day. That Joe Kent dude that quit Trumpski's security team looks like Eddie Munster. King Donnie needs asked how many drones are remaining in Iran and in how many locations across that vast nation? It tells you how long the war will last. For now, people want to feel Happy. If anyone wonders what rock 'n roll is, that's it.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 10-Month MA at 6672-6674 is Warning Signal and 12-Month MA at 6512-6518 is Start of Cyclical Bear Market

Having fun yet? King Donnie Trumpski has created the worst supply shock in global history with his war against Iran. Donnie was not ready for the drone warfare or the Strait of Hormuz closure spinning out of control. The US and Israel, with some Allies, are shooting at Iran and Lebanon, and Iran is shooting at its Middle East, or Western Europe as it is called by the people that live there, neighbors. Russia is supplying intelligence to Iran to target US assets. Ukraine is the top drone expert in the world due to the never-ending Ukraine War, that Trumpski was supposed to stop in 24 hours but he failed, and supplying this technology to Israel and the United States. Hey, do you know what? It sounds a lot like World War III.

And we do not even have Country Joe McDonald anymore; he passed away a few days ago. Woodstock. F war (harsh vulgar language). What are we fighting for? Don't ask me I don't give a damn, next stop is Vietnam. Be the first one on your block, to have your son come home in a box. And the world repeats.

Anyhoo, as mentioned in the past, two key metrics are the 10-mth MA at 6674 and the 12-mth MA at 6518. A drop below the 10-mth MA at 6674 is a warning signal that the stock market is in serious trouble and starting to fall apart. Old-timer's watch this number and many algorithms have it programmed into models so it is important. Price is at 6681 as this is typed lower than the 6698 on the chart but above the key 10-mth MA at 6674 so bulls are holding on by a single fingernail. If the SPX finishes today below 6674, and you are long the market holding on, you will get your pants pulled down going forward.

The low is at 6636 so the 10-mth was ruptured, perhaps weakened, you will have to watch. If the failure of the 10-mth sticks, next watch the 12-mth MA at 6518. This is where a longer term cyclical bear market begins. It signals lots of pain, misery and blood and carnage on Wall Street going forward. You know, fun times. Are you ready? At least you know what to watch. The 6674 is key today since price is sneaking around this level to and fro. One side or the other will win today and chart a path of happiness (staying above 6674) ahead or a future of doom and gloom (closing below 6674 trending lower to the 6500's). Ohio. Tin soldiers and Donnie's coming. It feels like Kent State all over again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:14 PM EST: The SPX drops to the 10-mth MA at 6671.84 at the closing bell. Of course it did. You could smell that one coming. Note that as price fell, the moving average calculation continues to adjust so the 10-mth MA sits at 6672 with SPX price at 6673. The LOD, in the last minute of trading, was 6670.40.Thus, the S&P 500 sits exactly at the 10-month MA warning signal at 6672-6673. Bounce or die. Tomorrow is a big decision day. Perhaps a Black Friday on Friday the 13th? The bulls will celebrate and throw confetti into the weekend if the SPX remains above 6672 heading higher. It hints that a relief rally is at hand The bears will rejoice if the SPX drops below 6672 since that is the go signal to start dumping stocks at a faster pace. The 12-mth MA is at 6516 that marks the start of a cyclical bear market. Lots of drama is ahead and the script writer's could not develop a better story line. The stock market pauses at a critical long-term line in the sand, the 10-mth MA at 6672, and the move from this level dictates the fate of the stock market ahead. The bulls and bears are in their camps preparing for a big battle at daybreak. A lonely harmonica echoes across the valley. Both sides listen to the sobering sound of Shenandoah and wonder if they will win, or lose their shirt tomorrow. Black Friday on Friday the 13th has a nice ring to it.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Short-Term Bear Market Continues; Megaphone (Expansion) Pattern

Now hear this! Now hear this! When holding a megaphone there is an urge to shout. You see a lot of jackasses at protests these days using megaphones that they buy, along with a ski mask, at the local Five Below. We can discuss the blue megaphone, or expansion pattern, below.

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 6851 is far more important. It is one of Keystone's key short-term bull/bear indicators and the SPX is in a short-term bear market. The SPX is at the 6776 palindrome with S&P futures down -50. The SPX was in a short-term bear in February until late in the month when the bulls started flexing their muscles (green circle), and managed to find glory for a day and a half, but then fell on their sword, tumbling lower (red circle), and becoming more sick with each passing day (lower lows and lower highs).

The number of touches and tests of the 200 EMA are atypical but impressive for the bears. Each time the bulls tried to take the ball back at the 200 EMA resistance ceiling, they were slapped in the face and turned down again, like Keystone in high school many decades ago when he asked pretty Maggie May for a date. You stole my heart, but I love you anyways. The stock market is nothing but sideways, whipsaw, sawtooth, choppy pig slop this year and ready to roll over and die.

As long as the SPX remains below the 200 EMA, stocks will remain weak and continue dropping. The blue megaphone, or expansion pattern, or megaphone expansion pattern if you prefer, jumps off the chart. It has lots of touches that gives it street cred. The last touch is on the top rail of the megaphone so if price maintains the pattern and continues dropping, the next downside target is 6400-6500. That will get everyone's attention. Rod Stewart shed his rock 'n roll days and instead classed himself up for a long solo career. He's a lady's man. Rod and Ron Isley team up to make the ladies swoon. This Old Heart of Mine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Keystone called the long-term top in the US stock market at the end of February after describing and explaining that 5-month rolling top mess that refused to roll over. Scroll back to study those charts. Time will tell how things play out. The dip-buyers remain active tripping over each other today fearful that they are missing out on the next big rally. Paging Irving Fisher. Paging Irving Fisher. Report to the front trading desk.

The red lines show the top call. Price prints matching and higher highs so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. It took a while for the uncharacteristic top to lock-in, but ALL the indicators finally went neggie d in February as more matching highs were printed. That means a multi-month selloff should begin and March kicks off the bear fun. It will be interesting to watch. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The old-timer's watch the 10-month MA at 6684 since it is an early warning alarm for the US stock market. Equities are in big trouble if the 10-mth MA fails and it did today (yellow circle).

However, King Donnie Trumpski rides in on a pale green horse to save the day. He promises that the Iran War is complete and will be over soon. Donnie proclaims that he may take the Strait of Hormuz and he has picked a successor to run Iran. Oil prices retreated off the highs and stocks took off to the moon intraday on the happy talk. Don't you love crony capitalism filth? In addition, Trumpski kisses Putin's flabby butt and relaxes oil sanctions so comrade Vlad can make more money and kill more Ukrainian women, children and elderly. What a world.

So the 10-mth MA warning alarm at 6684 is sounding forcing Donnie into action. The LOD today is 6636.04 so write that on a Post-It note and stick it on your forehead. It is an important number going forward. The 12-mth MA at 6526 (red circle) is a bear market. At the low today, only a few hours ago, we were only 110 SPX points from a bear market. Price is now about 270 points from the bear market. There is lots of time for price to move lower in a multi-month downturn that may last the bulk of the year.

The blue circles for the volume candles show the pump and dump. Equities are pumped on television and the internet in November taking advantage of Thanksgiving joy. The smart money comes in December to clean the table taking the sucka's money and setting them up to hold the bag. Same-o repeat in January and February. Note how the selling volume candle matches or is higher than the buying candlestick

The smart money pumps stocks on tv and 10 minutes later they are selling the same stocks (in the chart above, pump stocks one month to get Joe Sixpack bulled-up, and then sell the next month distributing the frothy shares to Joe the sucker that anxiously buys at the top). Fortunately, there are always bag-holdin' sucka's available. Are you left holding the bag? Are you a sucka? Go get some more money off Mommy and Daddy, Sonny, and come on back, Keystone thinks you can be a winner next time. Do you think so, Mister? Sure, Sonny, now where's your dough? Let's set you up with some NVDA, META and ORCL (and more shares from the Wall Street investment banks are unloaded to Joe Retail, Barry Bagholder, and Carmelita Sucka). Carmelita, hold me tighter, I think I'm sinking down, and I'm all strung out on heroin, on the outskirts of town.

The roller coaster ride continues. Bulls and bears both claim that the market is Letting Me Down. Pretty Margo. Mama's workin' at the liquor store. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.