SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 10-Month MA at 6672-6674 is Warning Signal and 12-Month MA at 6512-6518 is Start of Cyclical Bear Market

Having fun yet? King Donnie Trumpski has created the worst supply shock in global history with his war against Iran. Donnie was not ready for the drone warfare or the Strait of Hormuz closure spinning out of control. The US and Israel, with some Allies, are shooting at Iran and Lebanon, and Iran is shooting at its Middle East, or Western Europe as it is called by the people that live there, neighbors. Russia is supplying intelligence to Iran to target US assets. Ukraine is the top drone expert in the world due to the never-ending Ukraine War, that Trumpski was supposed to stop in 24 hours but he failed, and supplying this technology to Israel and the United States. Hey, do you know what? It sounds a lot like World War III.

And we do not even have Country Joe McDonald anymore; he passed away a few days ago. Woodstock. F war (harsh vulgar language). What are we fighting for? Don't ask me I don't give a damn, next stop is Vietnam. Be the first one on your block, to have your son come home in a box. And the world repeats.

Anyhoo, as mentioned in the past, two key metrics are the 10-mth MA at 6674 and the 12-mth MA at 6518. A drop below the 10-mth MA at 6674 is a warning signal that the stock market is in serious trouble and starting to fall apart. Old-timer's watch this number and many algorithms have it programmed into models so it is important. Price is at 6681 as this is typed lower than the 6698 on the chart but above the key 10-mth MA at 6674 so bulls are holding on by a single fingernail. If the SPX finishes today below 6674, and you are long the market holding on, you will get your pants pulled down going forward.

The low is at 6636 so the 10-mth was ruptured, perhaps weakened, you will have to watch. If the failure of the 10-mth sticks, next watch the 12-mth MA at 6518. This is where a longer term cyclical bear market begins. It signals lots of pain, misery and blood and carnage on Wall Street going forward. You know, fun times. Are you ready? At least you know what to watch. The 6674 is key today since price is sneaking around this level to and fro. One side or the other will win today and chart a path of happiness (staying above 6674) ahead or a future of doom and gloom (closing below 6674 trending lower to the 6500's). Ohio. Tin soldiers and Donnie's coming. It feels like Kent State all over again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:14 PM EST: The SPX drops to the 10-mth MA at 6671.84 at the closing bell. Of course it did. You could smell that one coming. Note that as price fell, the moving average calculation continues to adjust so the 10-mth MA sits at 6672 with SPX price at 6673. The LOD, in the last minute of trading, was 6670.40.Thus, the S&P 500 sits exactly at the 10-month MA warning signal at 6672-6673. Bounce or die. Tomorrow is a big decision day. Perhaps a Black Friday on Friday the 13th? The bulls will celebrate and throw confetti into the weekend if the SPX remains above 6672 heading higher. It hints that a relief rally is at hand The bears will rejoice if the SPX drops below 6672 since that is the go signal to start dumping stocks at a faster pace. The 12-mth MA is at 6516 that marks the start of a cyclical bear market. Lots of drama is ahead and the script writer's could not develop a better story line. The stock market pauses at a critical long-term line in the sand, the 10-mth MA at 6672, and the move from this level dictates the fate of the stock market ahead. The bulls and bears are in their camps preparing for a big battle at daybreak. A lonely harmonica echoes across the valley. Both sides listen to the sobering sound of Shenandoah and wonder if they will win, or lose their shirt tomorrow. Black Friday on Friday the 13th has a nice ring to it.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Short-Term Bear Market Continues; Megaphone (Expansion) Pattern

Now hear this! Now hear this! When holding a megaphone there is an urge to shout. You see a lot of jackasses at protests these days using megaphones that they buy, along with a ski mask, at the local Five Below. We can discuss the blue megaphone, or expansion pattern, below.

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 6851 is far more important. It is one of Keystone's key short-term bull/bear indicators and the SPX is in a short-term bear market. The SPX is at the 6776 palindrome with S&P futures down -50. The SPX was in a short-term bear in February until late in the month when the bulls started flexing their muscles (green circle), and managed to find glory for a day and a half, but then fell on their sword, tumbling lower (red circle), and becoming more sick with each passing day (lower lows and lower highs).

The number of touches and tests of the 200 EMA are atypical but impressive for the bears. Each time the bulls tried to take the ball back at the 200 EMA resistance ceiling, they were slapped in the face and turned down again, like Keystone in high school many decades ago when he asked pretty Maggie May for a date. You stole my heart, but I love you anyways. The stock market is nothing but sideways, whipsaw, sawtooth, choppy pig slop this year and ready to roll over and die.

As long as the SPX remains below the 200 EMA, stocks will remain weak and continue dropping. The blue megaphone, or expansion pattern, or megaphone expansion pattern if you prefer, jumps off the chart. It has lots of touches that gives it street cred. The last touch is on the top rail of the megaphone so if price maintains the pattern and continues dropping, the next downside target is 6400-6500. That will get everyone's attention. Rod Stewart shed his rock 'n roll days and instead classed himself up for a long solo career. He's a lady's man. Rod and Ron Isley team up to make the ladies swoon. This Old Heart of Mine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Keystone called the long-term top in the US stock market at the end of February after describing and explaining that 5-month rolling top mess that refused to roll over. Scroll back to study those charts. Time will tell how things play out. The dip-buyers remain active tripping over each other today fearful that they are missing out on the next big rally. Paging Irving Fisher. Paging Irving Fisher. Report to the front trading desk.

The red lines show the top call. Price prints matching and higher highs so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. It took a while for the uncharacteristic top to lock-in, but ALL the indicators finally went neggie d in February as more matching highs were printed. That means a multi-month selloff should begin and March kicks off the bear fun. It will be interesting to watch. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The old-timer's watch the 10-month MA at 6684 since it is an early warning alarm for the US stock market. Equities are in big trouble if the 10-mth MA fails and it did today (yellow circle).

However, King Donnie Trumpski rides in on a pale green horse to save the day. He promises that the Iran War is complete and will be over soon. Donnie proclaims that he may take the Strait of Hormuz and he has picked a successor to run Iran. Oil prices retreated off the highs and stocks took off to the moon intraday on the happy talk. Don't you love crony capitalism filth? In addition, Trumpski kisses Putin's flabby butt and relaxes oil sanctions so comrade Vlad can make more money and kill more Ukrainian women, children and elderly. What a world.

So the 10-mth MA warning alarm at 6684 is sounding forcing Donnie into action. The LOD today is 6636.04 so write that on a Post-It note and stick it on your forehead. It is an important number going forward. The 12-mth MA at 6526 (red circle) is a bear market. At the low today, only a few hours ago, we were only 110 SPX points from a bear market. Price is now about 270 points from the bear market. There is lots of time for price to move lower in a multi-month downturn that may last the bulk of the year.

The blue circles for the volume candles show the pump and dump. Equities are pumped on television and the internet in November taking advantage of Thanksgiving joy. The smart money comes in December to clean the table taking the sucka's money and setting them up to hold the bag. Same-o repeat in January and February. Note how the selling volume candle matches or is higher than the buying candlestick

The smart money pumps stocks on tv and 10 minutes later they are selling the same stocks (in the chart above, pump stocks one month to get Joe Sixpack bulled-up, and then sell the next month distributing the frothy shares to Joe the sucker that anxiously buys at the top). Fortunately, there are always bag-holdin' sucka's available. Are you left holding the bag? Are you a sucka? Go get some more money off Mommy and Daddy, Sonny, and come on back, Keystone thinks you can be a winner next time. Do you think so, Mister? Sure, Sonny, now where's your dough? Let's set you up with some NVDA, META and ORCL (and more shares from the Wall Street investment banks are unloaded to Joe Retail, Barry Bagholder, and Carmelita Sucka). Carmelita, hold me tighter, I think I'm sinking down, and I'm all strung out on heroin, on the outskirts of town.

The roller coaster ride continues. Bulls and bears both claim that the market is Letting Me Down. Pretty Margo. Mama's workin' at the liquor store. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

WTIC West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude Oil Daily Charts; Donnie Trump's Iran War Against Radical Islamists Creates Radical Jump in Oil and Gasoline Prices; Supply Shock Occurs Due to Strait of Hormuz Closure

Oil prices are going to Hell in a handbag over the last week due to King Donnie Trumpski's war against the radical Islamists in Iran. Here is a link to the prior oil charts that explain the last 2 weeks of drama. Conditions worsen as the days went on due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world's oil supply travels. Do not forget the food shipments that need to get through this water chokepoint and also vital commodities such as fertilizers. Nations such as Australia are panicking concerned about urea shipments they require. Down Under is a great tune and the ladies love to groove to the beat. What fun.

At Christmastime, all was groovy with low gasoline prices. Keystone was walking around with mistletoe taped on the end of a selfie stick and life was good. Using oil and gasoline prices as his main selling point, Trump claimed that all was fixed with inflation. King Donnie would deny that food and other prices remain high and moving higher (inflation) calling the claims fake news. Of course he did. He proclaimed that lower prices rule the day citing gasoline and eggs (the only two prices that did subside slightly).

The orange one covered himself in front with the fig leaf of lower oil and gasoline prices and covered his backside with a carton of eggs held vertically. Everything else under the sun that Americans buy, including food, homes, utilities and insurance, is higher or remaining high in price (rampant inflation likely morphing into horrible stagflation like the 1970's), and Donnie's fig leaf just fell to the ground. No one wants to see that.

Gasoline prices have a profound impact on consumer sentiment that effects consumer spending. People are not in a good mood as they watch prices at the pump move higher. They know that they have to tighten the purse strings and can no longer spend as they did in prior weeks. Of course, this behavior negatively impacts the economy and markets.

The WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) oil and Brent Crude oil daily charts above show the radical spikes higher in price as the fight against the radical Islamists in the Iran War escalates. Oil is a big deal due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, but the food and fertilizer problems will also take the main stage going forward.

WTIC oil rises from 55 to 92 since Christmastime, so not even 3 months, a huge +67%. WTIC oil tags 92.61 and sits at 91.27 ready for the drama to reignite Sunday evening into Monday morning as markets reopen. Brent oil rises from 59 to 95, a bigtime +61% gain since the holidays. Brent oil runs higher to 94.55 and sits at 92.87. Considering that price is in the 90's, one hundo will likely print in the days ahead maybe on Monday depending on how the Iran War goes this weekend. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so once price exceeded 80 for a few days last week, the 120 level is on the table.

Oil is experiencing a supply shock. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz cuts off 20% of the world's oil supply so bad things are going to happen. When there is less of a commodity, prices go up. You remember supply and demand from high school, right? Or don't they teach this stuff anymore? Less of a commodity can occur through a supply shock where there is a problem with production, or shipping, and the number of available widgets, or oil, are limited, or, a demand shock where there is such a high demand for a product, like a toy at Christmastime that flies off the shelves, that prices jump higher.

The parabolic (vertical) spikes higher shown in the charts above are a supply shock since the amount of available oil is decreasing each day the closing of the strait continues. However, what happens with all commodities, is the parabolic spike, then the radical return to Earth. As a supply shock continues, and the price for the widget, or oil, runs higher and higher, people say 'no mas'. If a company needs a particular part for what they produce, but the price is too high, the business may temporary close until prices recede. A supply shock will then turn into a demand shock. If oil runs above 120, it will no longer be wanted by many that close businesses or in the case of higher gasoline, consumers will stay home and watch television. Once prices subside, demand and supply will return to normal levels, but this will likely not occur until the Iran War is resolved.

Donnie "Two-Week" Trumpski, where the answer to every question about deadlines and timelines is "two weeks," said the war would be resolved in 2 to 4 weeks. Not anymore. As of last evening, now it is 4 to 6 weeks. The world will hurt bigtime economically if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for the next couple months. Only one oil tanker made it through the strait over the last 24 hours.

As a rule of thumb, each 10 buck increase in WTIC oil results in about a 25-cent pop in gasoline price at the pump. Most folks have already seen a jump of 30 cents across America over the last few days. There is almost a 40-dollar pop in oil due to Donnie's war, so that would equate to about a buck pop in gasoline prices. With about 30 cents in the bag, expect another 70 cents higher in gasoline over the coming days and couple weeks.

For example, gasoline in Da Burgh (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA), was about $3.20 during the holidays now at $3.50. It would not be surprising to see gasoline at the pump tag $4 and higher over the coming days and couple weeks. For a 20-gallon fuel tank on a car or light truck, it cost you about $65 to fill-up during the holidays. In a few days or week or two, it will cost you over $85 to fill the same gas tank. Let's all Shake, Rattle and Roll with the price of oil. Everybody dance, come on honey, I believe to my soul, you're the devil and now I know, the harder I work, the faster my money goes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/8/26, Sunday Evening, at 7:00 PM EST: WTIC oil gushes +16 dollars higher, +11%, to 106.60. Wow. One hundo did not take long. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. Oil prices are sinking the stock market ship. Brent oil pops 15 bucks, +16%, to 107.40.  UAE and Kuwait are lowering production. Saudi Arabian oil tanks are filled to the brim with oil sloshing over the top so production will have to be pulled back. Speaking by a guy that has designed, built, and operated oil refineries, LNG plants and other chemical facilities all over the world, the last thing you want to do is shut down a plant. The countries under Iranian fire will probably try to remain in hot shutdowns (hot idle hoping they can bring the equipment back up quickly) but that can only go on for a few days before you will have to shutdown the equipment and furnaces and so forth and that is bad. When you start back up, there will be many headaches to handle; it is the nature of the industrial beast. Oil is in a supply shock because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The world is awash in oil and does not have a problem with overall oil supply. The problem is moving it somewhere with the strait closed. Once storage tanks are full, production must slow or stop since there is no where to put the product. 

Note Added 3/8/26 at 7:20 PM EST: WTIC oil 106.87. Brent oil 107.54.

Note Added 3/8/26 at 8:22 PM EST: WTIC oil 107.59. Brent oil is at 108.16 now sporting a 108-handle. S&P futures are down -120 points at the lows.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 5:00 AM EST: WTIC and Brent pop above 110 minutes after that last post last evening. Overnight, Brent oil jumps to 120. World leaders, incompetents, tell each other they need to meet to discuss the oil prices and potentially release reserves (that will only be a temporary reprieve and oil prices will then resume a higher trend once the magician's trick dissipates). Nonetheless, the happy talk that Help Is On The Way sends oil prices back towards one hundo. For now, 'help' is in the form of 2,000 pound bombs, Big BLU, that shake your soul and make your heart skip when they hit.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 8:35 AM EST: WTIC oil 102. Brent oil 103. King Donnie Trumpski is in the Lincoln Bedroom hiding under the bed. The FedEx guy needs Donnie's signature for the weekly delivery of orange make-up.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 8:35 AM EST: WTIC oil 103.10. Brent oil 104.61. S&P futures -80. VIX 31.81. Everyone is watching the 'yippy' bond market as Trumpski calls it when things are looking dicey and intervention may be required. Secretary Bessent is quiet these days; he just wants to make it to late November, after the mid-term elections, to likely announce his departure. First, he may have to deal with a credit crisis where his actions and outcomes will be etched in US history.

Note Added 3/10/26 at 4:00 AM EST: King Donnie cannot take the market heat so he grabs a microphone and proclaims that the Iran War is almost completely done or will be "soon," in a few days. He proclaims that he may take over the Strait of Hormuz. King Donnie decrees that he has selected the next leader of Iran. Trumpski talks to his pal Putin relaxing oil sanctions on Mother Russia so Vlad will have more money to kill more Ukrainian women, children and elderly. Oil prices plummet on the news that the Iran War is almost over and all things will be groovy in a few days. Stocks reverse the intraday losses catapulting higher. Donnie will have to deliver over the coming days. It is fascinating that people do not understand that drones will destroy many things going forward including historic sites, dams, power plants, chemical plants, LNG terminals and storage tanks, ships, aiports, buildings, landmarks, anything, everything. Drones can bomb and explode all of humanity back into the Stone Age. Suicide bombers will not be in vogue anymore. They will exchange their bomb belts for a cushy seat on a sofa because they will become suicide drone pilots. It is a Brave New World. WTIC oil 86.66. Brent oil 90.77. The ominous 666.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side today at SPX 6805. It is no real surprise considering that the stock market is choppy slop this year. SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction. Jobs report is on tap in the morning.

Keybot the Quant

KOSPI South Korea Index and EWY ETF Daily Chart; South Korea Stocks Crash -20% into Despair

When you mention the KOSPI, you are really talking two stocks that make up 80% of the index; Samsung and SK Hynix. Of course, these two are AI darlings so they could do no wrong; traders bot at any price since artificial intelligence is the future. Hyundai Motor and LG are other recognizable names in the KOSPI.

In only 3 days, South Korea crashes into a bear market the KOSPI crashing -20% and the South Korea EWY ETF crashes -19%. The Uber/UT driver in Seoul that put last week's entire paycheck into the stock market, that the guy on television said was supposed to be guaranteed riches, got so worked up at the money he was losing he drove off the road into a tree. Leverage always plays a role in these types of crashes. Over-leveraged traders that were not paying attention are now walking around wearing a barrel.

The EWY bounced after the crash but there is likely far more wood to chop. The KOSPI is so close to the 50-day MA at 4951 it is worthy of a touch as well as the lower band at 4763. The EWY chart shows how there remains so much money floating around in the world that the dip-buyers could not wait to jump back in. This euphoric and complacent spirit must be busted going forward.

South Korea will be trading in about an hour here on the East Coast on Wednesday evening. The KOSPI chart is updated EOD (end of day). There is a lot of soul-searching going on in Seoul tonight. Are you a Soul Man? Good evening all of you fine ladies and gentlemen.... it is show time...... fresh off the automobile tour........ from Calumet City, Illinois,....give them a big welcome..... the Blues Brothers!! 

Everyone is hyped up on the AI garbage but you keep looking around and see buptkis. AI produces mindless videos for doom scrolling, can write a song or poem or draw a picture, and write reports and aggregate information taking low-wage jobs away from people. It is a large language model that promises to change the world. Believe it when you see it. Artificial intelligence has been around for over 3 years already. Where is the super-hyped AI magical world that the Silicon Valley kids in their fleece sweaters, born from wealthy families, promised? Where's the beef? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/5/26: The KOSPI gains +10% as traders trip over each other to buy Samsung and SK Hynix with both fists. Didn't you hear? AI is the next great thing. After 4 years and billions of dollars that have gone poof, where are all these great new things? Higher electric bills, longer waits for customer service as real people are let go, and loss of programming jobs are created by AI but this is not good. Isn't new technology supposed to bring an improvement to daily life? The first question Keystone will ask you is if your report was written by AI. If so, he will throw it in the garbage. Why would anyone take the time to read something that the person handing it to you did not think it was that important for him/her to write it?

Note Added 3/9/26: The KOSPI pukes -7% as Samsung and SK Hynix are thrown overboard.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side today at SPX 6866. The sideways choppy whipsaw slop continues this year and we are in March already. Bears won yesterday with weaker chips and copper. The bulls win today pulling semi's and the red metal back into their camp sending stocks higher. The SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 bull/bear lines in the sand tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; US Stock Market Is Topped-Out on Long-Term Monthly Basis

Honey, I'm home. Keystone called the long-term top in the stock market, on the monthly basis, a major top, a week ago on 2/21/26, after the several-month topping saga that was explained each step of the way. Here is the link to that SPX monthly chart from last week that explains the top call. Read that prior post that only takes a few minutes and then this post will make more sense for you. The new March candlestick begins for the monthly chart yesterday and that would serve as a confirmation for this major top.

The high for March thus far is 6901 yesterday. That is close enough for a matching price high but it was not needed to verify the negative divergence. The red February price candlestick shows the negative month after price printed the matching high to the prior months. Therefore, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d. Price chopped along for 5 months continually teasing the all-time record highs.

Following the black line down, since that is the last price high that was made, shows, and verifies, that ALL the chart indicators are neggie d (indicators are sloping down, as the red lines show, as price continues to make matching or higher highs). The SPX is completely out of gas and there are not even any more fumes left in the tank. The S&P 500 piece of trash jalopy is broken down on the side of the road as the entire bulled-up nation is at the stock market party waiting for more Fed and Trumpski booze to arrive. The Party Is Over, as Willie sings. Turn out the lights. They say all good things must end.

If you are a novice trader wet behind the ears, get out of the stock market before you get hurt. Keystone has been telling you this for the last couple months. Now it is time to sh*t or get off the pot. There is no more time. Anyone that stays in the stock market will lose a lot of money over the coming months and year or two. The slump may last several years.

The old-timer's watch the 10-month MA at 6692 as an early warning system. When this fails, it is a yellow caution light flashing with sirens going off. The 12-mth MA is at 6534 and this is the line in the sand when the bear market begins.

Note that price last touched the lower standard deviation band in 2022. The upper band started to be violated in late 2023. The collapse last April due to the Trumpski tariffs brought price lower but it did not test the lower band or the 50-mth MA at 5156. The stock market orgy ran price higher as traders tripped over each other to buy the dips each month after April.

Price needs to correct down to the middle band that is also the 20-mth MA at 6252 and the lower band at 5275, and rising, is also on the table. That will get everyone's attention especially all the analysts calling for SPX 8K and higher this year with less than 10 months remaining.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (price above the 10-mth MA above the 12-mth MA above the 20 above the 50) requiring a mean reversion downward.

Wall Street analysts, strategists and pundits proclaim that there is no AI bubble and this will not appear for another 1 to 3 years. Wrong. You just witnessed the blow-off top. The last 11 months off the April lows is the blow-off top of the artificial intelligence bubble.

AI has been around solidly for about 3 years and in early form for the last couple decades. One of the standard mantras for the last couple years is that AI will provide great drug discoveries. Okay chump, where are they? AI has been in play for 3 years and no one is announcing a huge breakthrough drug. All you hear are crickets. Pharmaceutical companies are not going to share and exchange proprietary drug data so AI would only be an in-house model. Well, where's all the big breakthroughs? There are none. It is business as usual. Do you believe all the AI hype?

Obviously, the play going forward, on the long-term monthly basis, say for the rest of this year perhaps into next year and perhaps far longer (multi-years), is on the short side. Stocks are expected to trail and trend lower for the next many months if not a few years.

The stock market prints the long-term top at 2/26/26 and two days later, on 2/28/26, King Donnie Trumpski declares war against Iran. Isn't that interesting? The orange head probably thinks the stock market is the least of his problems. He be wrong.

Humorously, are you standing there in your loin cloth ready to serve as the bag-holdin' sucka? Sucker by Jonas Brothers. That one dude sings so high he must have put his guitar capo on his nuts. He can sing in the boy's choir. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/7/26: SPX 6740.

IGV Software ETF Versus BTCUSD Bitcoin Versus OWL Blue Owl Daily Charts

The IGV software sector ETF (blue) and bitcoin (red) move in unison like Fred and Ginger. He's dancing for his dinner. No wonder people were thinner years ago. Nowadays, folks lay around eating junk food and tapping a keyboard with greasy fingers.

The blue (representing the software sector) and red lines (bitcoin) move in sync and the green line was added that is Blue Owl that is blamed for instigating nasty action in the private equity stocks that are crashing this year. Blue Owl peaked in the summertime and has been a piece of garbage ever since.

The larger purple box shows a divergence occurring in the price action. Software is moving flat and actually peaking in this box in September/October. Note that Blue Owl is getting tossed overboard, the green line goes down, and at the same time the red line moves up. The money from Blue Owl goes into bitcoin.

The second box same idea. The software spankdown is in progress at the end of last year into this year so the blue line drops like a rock. Bitcoin rises at the same time so those traders pulling money from software plays were sticking some of it into bitcoin figuring the selloff in the crypto currencies has run its course. Not so.

This year, bitcoin, software and private equity are in sync taking a ride together on the Highway to Hell. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

IGV Software Sector, CRWD CrowdStrike, CRM Salesforce, SNOW Snowflake, ADBE Adobe, DOCU DocuSign, and IBM Daily Charts; Software Stocks Crash Because of Fear that AI Will Eat Their Lunch

Software stocks are taking the pipe. IBM stuck its head in the oven yesterday. The IGV ETF represents the software sector and it crashes -35% in the last 17 weeks (4 months). Software is taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten to a pulp. Why? IGV was the nice old man handing out candy to everyone over the last few years and now he is beaten and rolled in the back alley. Why?

AI (artificial intelligence) will do the work of software. It is that simple. Software engineers and programmers yell, "Blasphemy!" Sure they do because they are the ones that will lose their jobs. The private equity arena is betting slapped silly along with the software sector due to AI drama. Do you want to provide loans to companies that are starting to look like dinosaurs and may be out of business in a few years?

The big software behemoths such as MSFT Microsoft, GOOGL Google, and ORCL Oracle may weather the storm but others such as CRWD CrowdStrike, CRM Salesforce, SNOW Snowflake, ADBE Adobe, DOCU DocuSign and IBM may have a tougher row to hoe.

CRWD crashes -39% in the last 14 weeks. It looks like the crowd did strike CrowdStrike. They should call it CrowdStrife. All of you dumb little twits listening to talking heads on television lost your shirts.

CRM crashes -35% in only 7 weeks after a triple top. Note that triple tops do exist. Idiots donning fleece vests, that display their embroidered tech company logo, had puffed-out their chests at Christmastime bragging that they own Salesforce one of the best companies positioned to take advantage of the AI revolution. Seven weeks later they are crying in their beer regretting that they ever got involved in the stock market now hoping that no one asks about their CRM investment. Salesforce is experiencing sales in force.

SNOW crashes -45% in 15 weeks taking a prize as one of the biggest pieces of software sh*t. The snowflakes piled up into a snowstorm and then a blizzard and now the SNOW stockholders are left out in the cold. Young folks get a bad rap about being snowflakes. There are always lazy ne'er-do-wells in all age groups but everyone always gets painted with the same brush. You will have to buck-up and prove everyone wrong, that's all. The snowflakes were snow-jobbed into buying SNOW and now they are snowed-in.

ADBE crashes -32% in only 41 days. The chimney is falling down and the roof is caving in, on that little adobe, er abode, close enough. Log Cabin in the Lane is a standard bluegrass song. Adobe was a darling of investment houses for a long time but the ADBE shareholders may start wearing barrels if the crash continues.

DOCU crashes -42% in only 30 days. Ouch. That is going to leave a mark. On the bright side, DocuSign will be able to sign its own death certificate. Mr Brightside by the Killers.

IBM crashes -31% in 17 days. The BM stands for bowel movement. That is appropriate since IBM's -13% crash yesterday is a bed-sh*tting of epic proportions the worst day in 25 years. Anthropic says its Claude Code agentic tool can modernize the COBOL systems stabbing straight at the heart of IBM. Claude is an interesting name selection that comes from Latin and is used in the French language. Pause for laughter. The literal meaning of claudus is "lame" and "limping." The idiots in charge did not think of checking the derivation of the name they pick for their fancy program. Anthropic may be lame and limping gong forward. It is a nation of morons, with chests puffed-out and chins held high, wearing fleece vests, everyone telling each other how smart they are.

There are many other software companies to watch including PLTR Palantir, NOW ServiceNow, INTU Intuit, FIG Figma and more. Everyone is excited about the AI revolution and what is coming. Be careful what you wish for. There is only one king in life. Rock 'n Roll is King. Come on ladies, get out on that dance floor and shake your money maker. YOLO. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:18 PM EST: The software stocks recover today and Anthropic proclaims that it is not a disrupter, no sirree, it is a collaborator. Anthropic does not want to horn-in on IBM and mess with the COBOL platform but instead work as a partner; same with all other companies. Anthropic saw the light and got religion once they saw stocks crashing around them with their company targeted as a disrupter and one of the reasons for the crash. Praise the Lord, I Saw the Light. 

Note Added 2/25/26 at 5:10 AM EST: UBS says private credit default rates are rising to 15% (from 13%; typically at the 3% to 6% range). The grim UBS forecast adds fuel to the AI disruption and fear talk. Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein proclaims, "All you need is the snowball to start going down the hill and it started. Blue Owl is right in the middle of that. I think we are in the super-early innings of the wheels coming off the car." Anthropic continues with damage control decreeing that they want to work with companies and not replace them. Anthropic continues using restrictions and safeguards (ethical guardrails) preventing autonomous weapons development (weapons that shoot automatically without human intervention a sick path ahead for humanity). The Pentagon tells Anthropic it is 'our way or the highway' wanting the safeguards to disappear. A $200 million US government contract hangs in the balance. Workday earnings are released last evening and WDAY is bludgeoned -9% in the premarket. Their suite of financial management applications are not viewed as sweet. Can AI do all this stuff? Workday has its work cut out for itself today. In the most important news about the AI story, with the luster coming off the AI rose, clients of SAP are questioning if the AI tools offered are worth the money. If they are questioning, it means the AI garbage at this stage is not worth it for companies. Maybe it is best to wait a year or two until better applications are provided but this thinking will be the death nail to the AI-associated stocks. There is lots of drama ahead. AI stands for "as if" as if AI will ever justify the billions upon billions spent already. All this AI garbage to make and doom scroll unlimited garbage short videos. Are you trapped in this sh*t life? Ignore AI and instead pick up a musical instrument. All Along the Watchtower. We can dig it Jimi. There are many here among us, that feel that life is but a joke.

Note Added 2/26/26 at 7:22 AM EST: NVIDIA, Salesforce and Snowflake report yearnings last evening. In the pre-market, NVDA +1.1%. CRM -3.7%. SNOW flat. IGV -0.3%.

Note Added 3/5/26: The dip-buyers love tech stocks and pile back into IGV at the bottom at 76.25 sending it higher to 87.62 with the jobs report on tap.