Wednesday, February 24, 2021

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Three Black Crows; Stock Market Survival at the 50-Week MA



Here is a look at the utilities, UTIL, the Dow Jones Utility Average, which was posted the other day. UTIL 50-week MA is 821.60 and a major bull/bear line in the sand. Think of it as a trap-door in the stock market. If UTIL 821.60 fails, the US stock market may go into a crash. At the least, the S&P 500 (SPX) would be expected to dump about 30 or 40 handles within an hour after the failure. It will be fun to watch if it happens. The Three Black Crows candlestick formation forecasts trouble ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note: Chart is courtesy of Stockcharts.com and cropped and annotated by Keystone.

Note Added 11:07 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. UTIL 829.80. Utilities slip two handles. Now only 8 points from creating disaster and carnage. For gosh sakes! Cover the children's eyes! Bears need VIX above 24.17, otherwise, they got nothing.

Note Added 11:13 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. Another handle lower now at the 828 palindrome. UTIL 828.97. This is exciting. Only about 7 points from the end of the stock market as we know it. Are you excited? VIX 22.77. SPX is up 15 points at 3896. Fed Powell provides testimony in front of the house. If you look under his table he is holding his jackboot on Uncle Vix's neck holding him down to maintain elevated stock prices for the wealthy class.

Note Added 11:17 AM EST: UTIL 828.49.

Note Added 11:30 AM EST: UTIL 827-handle.

Note Added 11:40 AM EST: SPX 3905. VIX 22.61 at LOD. Fed Chairman Powell is testifying before the House. If you lift Pope Powell's pale green robe, he has his jackboot on the neck of volatility; he is squeezing harder now to send stocks higher. UTIL 828.25.

Note Added 12:38 AM EST: SPX 3919. Pump it Powell, pump it! VIX 22.20. 10-year yield 1.376%UTIL 826.75.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand



The strangeness continues. Stocks have not even started to sell off to any great extent as yet and everyone is announcing the all-clear signal and time to buy, buy, buy! It is comical. These are unprecedented times. Very few may understand how historically significant this period is right now; Q1 2021.

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios show the long stretch of complacency which is outrageous. It is a flashing neon sign telling you that we are likely peaking out in a major way a la 2000 and 2007. A multi-month top is forming now, right now, or within the next couple months if the easy money can keep pumping. The low put/calls verify the uber complacency and for it to last this long is epic and signaling a significant top. The 21-day MA's have bottomed a nice topping signal for the stock market.

You knew everyone was all 100% in on the long side with the quintuple 5x long tech QQQQQ ETF when Pastor Brown took last Sunday's collection money and bot AAPL stock. Shy, retired librarian Mrs O'Connor took her entire life savings and bot AMZN stock. Timmy Tech can hardly wait for his next paycheck because he plans on buying more stock, but he wants to stay diversified, so he thought it a wise idea to buy both TSLA and FB stock. Cousin Larry said he refuses to play this crazy party game so he withdrew all his money from the stock market and said he wants to play it completely safe, so he can sleep at night, so he put all the dough into bitcoin. The silliness continues. This stuff always ends in tears. 

You cannot nibble on longs until the CPC moves above 1.20 and CPCE moves above 0.80. This will signal fear and panic and folks running for the exits selling their grandmother's ring to cover margin calls, selling anything, selling gold to cover margin. When that fear and panic occurs, that is when you buy, not now. You want to run into the fire and it is not blazing enough as yet.

Cathie Wood said she bot TSLA and bitcoin yesterday. Why? There has not even been much of a selloff yet. You have to wait until you see the whites of their eyes and CPC 1.20 and CPCE 0.80 tells you when to nibble on the long side. Cathie! You need a chart technician!

Wood is not alone in then non-stop bullishness. Bloomberg and CNBC continue parading bulls across the television screens. BTIG Strategist Julian Emanuel is not worried about the markets overheating. Up is the way forward. JPM strategist Bob Michele touts growth ahead and blue skies. JPM strategist David Lebovitz says people are skeptical and you want them to climb a wall of worry. What is he smoking? Look at the charts above. It cannot get anymore simple. The complacency is historic and off the charts. No one, zero people, are skeptical or worried; they are fearless and without worry, complacent, and believe that even if a selloff occurs the Fed or other central banks will pump stocks higher again. Moral hazard.

Nuveen strategist Bob Doll says consumer spending will be unleashed and stocks will have a good year. Doll sees no reason to hedge for the downside. Bridgewater strategist Rebecca Patterson proclaims, "The S&P (500) is not in a bubble."

Are there any bears around? Bueller? Anyone? Bears? Bueller? Keystone is one now that Keybot the Quant flips short. Time will tell if the short side holds. The charts tell you to be out of the long side or be playing the short side. Wait until the charts move above the green lines to consider nibbling on the long side since a nice bottom and sustainable rally will be developing then. Be patient. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:35 AM EST: MS strategist Dan Skelly proclaims blue skies ahead with banks rallying. He decrees, "There is more room to go" with "potential for (more) upside." MS's call on the SPX is 3900-4000 where it will hit a ceiling. Other Wall Street strategists are targeting SPX 4200 to 4600. GS strategist Golub proclaims that semi's and banks will send the SPX to 4300, a new target, up from the 4200 prior target. CS strategist Mandy Xu says banks, metals and energy are the place to be. Everybody sing, all together now; Happy Days Are Here Again!.Wheeee! Party time will continue forever like the 1920's.

Note Added 9:40 AM EST: SPX 3875. VIX 24.17. 10-year yield 1.42%.

Note Added 11:19 AM EST: Not one analyst talks about yields coming back down (Treasury note and bond prices up). Everyone believes that yields will march higher with reflation and inflation since the monetary (Fed) and fiscal (Congress) easy money pumps continue sending growth to the moon. It is comical that the people that comment on all this stuff, and analyze, and pontificate, are the upper middle class and elite privileged class neither of which miss a beat, or paycheck, during the pandemic (think perspective). They are asking the huddled masses in America, why so glum? Don't be negative, look, everything is great. Can't you see all the wonderfulness everywhere? There is a disconnect here. The scenario no one is talking about is when yields come back down opposite of what 99% of Wall Street says. Perhaps a deflation and disinflation realization hits if yields come back down since this outcome is completely unexpected. When all confidence is lost in the Federal Reserve, all is lost. Investors and traders may panic realizing that this is the future for weeks and months ahead. No one will stick around for that. Stocks would collapse, a flight to safety sends yields lower, the dollar will move up or sideways, gold will surprise since it will only be sideways with maybe a small rally. Margin calls will be occurring during the stock selloff especially with everyone leveraged long. Shockingly, even Miss Betty revealed, in the nursing home cafeteria yesterday, that she was triple-leveraged long a triple-leveraged ETN. People sometimes ditch gold during a stock market selloff because they use that money to cover margin calls. This is why in a big selloff, gold bugs will sometimes be flustered to not see gold rally that much. Perhaps there is lots of fun ahead as described; not one other analyst describes this outcome. The SPX regains 3.9K now at 3901. VIX 22.70. Bears need VIX above 24.17 or they got nothing. Pope Powell is pumping markets with his dovish words.

Note Added 11:40 AM EST: SPX 3905. VIX 22.61 at LOD. If you lift Pope Powell's pale green robe, he still has his jackboot on the neck of volatility; he is squeezing harder now sending stocks higher. UTIL 828.25.

Note Added 12:38 AM EST: SPX 3919. Pump it Powell, pump it! VIX 22.20. 10-year yield 1.376%. UTIL 826.75.

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side at SPX 3849 this morning. Volatility spiked and retail stocks drops creating the softness in stocks but by the end of the day the Fed jammed volatility lower to help equities recover.

Watch volatility and retail stocks, VIX 24.17 and RTH 159.77, respectively. They are the bull/bear lines in the sand. Bears win big if VIX spikes above 24.17 and it begins trading at 3 AM EST.

RTH is mainly made up of King Bezos's Scamazon stock so watch AMZN in the pre-market. Bulls win big if RTH moves above 159.77 and that will likely happen if AMZN moves higher. 

As always, Keybot's site has more information.

Keybot the Quant

TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Gap Play; Overbot; Rising Wedge Developing; Negative Divergence Developing



The TNX 10-year Treasury yield chart has been of interest over the last 2 weeks. It is illustrative of why you have to wait for all the indicators to negatively diverge to call a top, or, all the indicators to positively diverge to call a bottom. Remember, the MACD line remained long and strong (blue line) so the top is not in on the weekly basis until she goes neggie d.

The green and red colors are not used for the indicators since bonds are not like stocks. Yield moves inverse to price. So the TNX chart, which is yield, going up and up and up, means traders are selling, selling, selling, price is dropping, yield is rising. Thus, red and green are misleading so blue and orange ought to confuse the matter nicely.

Recapping the prior charts, the purple W pattern bottom formed, that targets 1.40-1.41% and 1.39% was tagged yesterday and yield stalls at 1.34%-1.38% ever since. The W pattern is satisfied; it is close enough for government work. The blue gap is now in play which is 1.40%-1.48% but just call it 1.4% to 1.5%. Yield will either be rejected at the gap at 1.39%-1.40% and then move lower, or fill the gap at 1.40%-1.50% moving higher, or jump the gap to 1.50% moving higher. Let's try to figure out which.

The overbot conditions and rising wedge is negative for yields. Ditto the neggie d shown by the histogram and ROC. This requires yield to pull back a bit and take a breather. However, you know the drill by now. Yield will want to come back up again on the weekly basis and likely tease into that gap because the MACD and RSI still have some fuel in the tank.

A stock market selloff is expected as all of Keystone's charts have been describing the last couple weeks and this may occur with the dollar spiking wildly higher and gold dropping. A flight to safety would occur so the 10-year Treasury will see rising prices and lower yields during a stock market selloff. That would surprise everyone since 99.9% of Wall Street says inflation is here and yields will only go up.

The TNX monthly chart is up, up and away for yields on the long term basis but there is business to take care of in the coming weeks. Taking a look at the daily, it is neggie d except for the MACD so yield should top out after a jog move (down-up). TNX likely drops today, then back up tomorrow, which will be the high in yield on the daily basis (make sure by watching the MACD go neggie d). The neggie d parameters on the weekly join forces with the daily to send yields lower say from say, a hump day top into next week.

But, remember, that weekly chart above wants yields to come up again because of the MACD and RSI, so yield will come back up on the weekly basis and if the two indicators turn neggie d, the top is in for yield on a multi-week basis (it should occur soon in a week, or two, or three, you have to watch the chart, it will tell you when).

Pope Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee in about 3 hours and tomorrow he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee. This morning is the key discussion since he repeats the same schpeal tomorrow. Powell's words will impact the dollar, Treasuries and stocks so this drama will take place, say, between 8 AM EST and noon. Powell's statement may be released any minute.

Pulling time frames out of thin air, say yield tops out at 1.37%-1.43% over the next 2 days. Then down into next week. Then back up the week after that for the potential top in yield, on a weekly basis, during the week of 3/8/21. If only the RSI goes neggie d and the MACD remains stubborn, another jog (down-up) will be needed which is another week or two.

Thus, yields top out now and slump a few days, but then come back up and likely play in the 1.4%-1.5% range during the week of 3/1 or 3/8. Yield tops out in this range sometime between say 3/8/21 and 3/26/21 and then yield will drop for several weeks. At that bottom in yield, say out in late March or April some time, the 4-decade bond rally is officially over. Yields head higher from April on for many months and likely years forward.

Keystone is not playing in this arena right now; remember TLT and TBT are plays but you have to be nimble. TLT is pummeled, beaten like a rented mule. Simply watch the set-up described and the TLT long, or TBT short, can be played during the coming multi-week drop in yields (wait for the neggie d to be placed on the weekly chart above so you know the top is in for yields). But from April-May on, as yields bottom and then begin a long move higher, TLT short and TBT long would be the play for many months forward into year end and likely into 2022.

Traders will likely discover that yields are not going to go straight up from here, at least that is what the charts say right now. The MACD on the weekly chart will tell you when the top is in for yields which is anytime over next couple weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 2/24/21, at 2:30 AM EST: Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.11%, 5-year 0.56%, 10-year 1.34%, 30-year 2.18%. The 2-10 spread is 123 bips. The 5-30 spread is 162 bips. Analysts are touting banks as the Second Coming due to a steeper yield curve. KRE to the moon. XLF, which is the larger money-center banks and insurance companies, is up big as well but KRE outperforms since making loans is their bread and butter for regional banks while the investment banks are traders. XLF will top out on weekly chart over the next week or two. KRE will top out on weekly basis a week after XLF. A multi-week decline in the banks would then be expected. The 10-year yield is at 1.34% relaxing off the highs in front of that gap at 1.39%-1.40%

USD US Dollar Index Weekly Chart; Dixie Awaits Pope Powell's Testimony



Keystone called the bottom in the dollar as the new year began when every analyst, every one of them, guaranteed a weaker dollar ahead. USD ran higher for five weeks and more off that bottom to print a 91 handle. The call was not rocket science. The falling green wedge is a beautifully bullish pattern. The green lines show universal positive divergence across all indicators and the RSI and stoch's are also coming off oversold levels. All this is bullish. Price violated the  lower standard deviation band so the middle band at 91.24 was on the table and look at that tall shadow from the candlestick 3 week ago. Price tries to touch that 20-wk MA but just misses.

The near-tap of the 20 was enough for those dollar bears to double and triple down on the dollar shorts. Smart and pretty Angie, a novice on the trading floor, says she is quadrupling down on the dollar shorts and Wall Street agrees there is no easier trade to make in the history of the FX market than short the dollar.

The boat is starting to wobble because everyone is on the starboard side gathering up baseball bats and brass knuckles preparing to take the dollar down. The dollar bear party is in full swing. Keystone is the only one on the port side of the boat sitting in a rickety lawn chair. The dollar bears took all the nice deck chairs. Flat soda and stale crackers are Keystone's refreshments while all the dollar shorts are singing songs, drinking Fed wine and partying all night long. Everyone is convinced that the dollar will begin falling in earnest from here. Well, maybe someone will join Keystone's party soon.

After the multi-week pop, you see price printing matching highs and flattening off losing momentum; the red bar. If you draw a vertical line down from the last candlestick that made the last matching high, you see that all the indicators remain long and strong except for the RSI that threw off that little bit of neggie d. That creates the sogginess in price that takes the chart into the Pope Powell show in a few hours. Jerome picked up his dove suit and wings at the cleaners so he plans to fly around the Senate chamber to begin the show dropping $100 dollar bills to the adoring crowd below.

Here is a link to the recent article Keystone published explaining the current reflation, inflation and deflation drama.

Fed Chairman Powell provides Congressional testimony today and tomorrow. He speaks before the Senate Banking Committee this morning and the House Financial Services Committee on hump day. Today is important since he will regurgitate the same on Wednesday. Obviously, Pope Powell controls the markets with his decrees and the dollar will move on his words. The jury remains out if Powell will send the dollar down to 89-ish today, or not, perhaps he reignites the rally.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 2's lead to 8's so that breach of 92 in December opens the door to 88. The chart, however, is content with the low in the dollar to begin the year. There is no reason chart-wise for the dollar to come back down to those lows. The chart carries more clout than the 80/20 rule.

If the dollar retreats below that thin blue line, a lower low in price, check the indicators. As long as they are not below the blue lines, the chart would remain in possie d and take off like a rocket higher on a weekly basis.

Keystone expects the broad market to sell off. A March 2020 redux would be the dollar spiking wildly higher as the dollar shorts panic (look at the chart for last March). This causes stocks to collapse, gold collapses, and the big commodity rally would take a multi-week breather.

Markets are likely waiting to see what words of wisdom Pope Powell has to offer. The entire Free World's economy rests on Jerome's thin shoulders. The expectation is for the dollar to continue rallying on the weekly basis moving above the 20-wk MA. The dollar monthly chart looks like a lot of sideways so perhaps USD, or DXY, the dixie, would move through 89-94 for the remainder of the year. If the dollar shorts panic, the move higher may be epic, you could see the dollar perhaps spiking to 97-98 in a heartbeat as the blood is flowing on Wall Street. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

COPPER Daily Chart and Peru Coronavirus (COVID-19) Daily New Cases Chart; H&S Nullified; Parabolic Spike as Covid Strikes World's Copper Fields




Copper is the popular girl at the party these days. Gold is asking why it looks like chopped liver. Everyone wants to dance with the other yellow metal. Strategists, analysts, traders and investors are singing from the same hymn sheet that copper will continue flying into the stratosphere. Everyone universally agrees that the US and world economy will recover quickly from here forward. The drug stores cannot keep sunglasses in stock since everyone sees nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead.

Look at that demand! Did you see the demand? Why the demand will go through the roof this year! Look at that supercycle! What? Is that a new type of stationary bike? No, you dumbie, supercycle! Copper will go up and up for the next decade! Jump on board! No thanks.

Every now and then an analyst burps or coughs and it sounds like he said supply. Other than that, it is all about copper and the huge demand going forward. The two biggest users of copper are housing and autos so it is key that these industries are robust to justify copper prices. Housing is feeling love as some folks want to move out of the city due to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, however, once they are kept awake all night because they are not used to listening to crickets instead of car doors and street noises, some will move back to the city.

Just think of the copper pipe Texas is going to need after that debacle. A burst pipe is not that big a deal. It depends on where it bursts. If it is easy to get to, hacksaw the section out, clean the ends, use two copper unions, flux it all up, shoot the propane cylinder heat to it, lay the solder in the joints, done, turn the water back on, go back to watching television. It can be fixed in a half hour, or, if you do not have common sense skills, you will wait two weeks for the plumber that will charge you $200 or more for that repair that costs $10 bucks and is easy as punch to fix if you have self confidence. 

Electric vehicles are all the rage, if you are in the know you tout the hip jargon, "EV." Motors need a lot of copper windings. Why would you buy an electric car when there is a gas station on every corner? Are you stupid?

The blue lines show the H&S highlighted 2 or 3 weeks ago. The purple arrows show tight bands that are about to squeeze out big moves and both were up. When price went above the head level of the H&S, the head and shoulders pattern was nullified. What happens with this type of behavior is the spike turns into a head and over time, price comes back down, forms a right shoulder and then tests the neck again at 3.5 but this is likely a couple months out.

The Peru chart is provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. 9,667 Peruvians became sick with covid on 2/18/21 only 5 days ago the second worst day in the history of the pandemic. Those folks are sick as dogs. Worse, about 40% to 60% of the new infections are Peruvians that already had coronavirus months earlier. This is not good. There may be a nasty new covid variant strain in play in the world's copper fields.

Supply is the problem. Comically, there are likely only three short guys in colorful alpaca shawls running the copper mines for the entire world; one running the shovel, one driving the truck and the other running the wash plant. No wonder copper is a moon shot. It's time for Keystone to take the couple barrels of copper scrap in the garage up to the junk yard.

The green circle shows when Peru announced a lockdown that would run to 2/14/21 so that expired a few days ago. Peru is likely trying to get back on its feet now but with daily new cases at record highs, things may be rocky for another couple weeks or so. Thus, the copper story probably has more to do with supply than demand.

In the US, 10 million people remain out of work for gosh sakes. Add another 10 million that are gig workers and underemployed folks working to just get by. These people are not going out to buy a house or a fancy glorified golf cart car. The pent-up demand everyone expects is going to be a bump in air travel for 2 months, which will be the wealthy taking a vacation trip, but all that will likely fade quickly after the privileged class, that are given vast wealth by the central banks, enjoy some play time.

The red lines show overbot RSI and stochastics and neggie d on the stoch's so a pullback on the daily for a day or two is in order then back up again because of the long and strong indicators (green lines). The daily will probably top out in about 4 days say Friday or Monday. That pullback will conspire with the neggie d on the weekly chart for probably a couple-week pullback. The weekly chart is going to top out in probably 1 to 2 weeks. The copper monthly chart is in partial neggie d but the RSI and MACD want copper to come back up, on the monthly basis, after the multi-week decline. 

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? Copper will chop at elevated levels for the next 2 weeks. Watch the copper weekly chart since it will identify the top, on the weekly basis, when the MACD goes neggie d probably in 1 or 2 weeks. That will be a multi-week slide but then back up as stated with the monthly. So chop into early March, then copper retreats for several weeks, say into ealy or mid-April, then a rally again back up to the current highs, say in May, and that is the top for copper for the year, price should move sideways to sideways lower into year end from there. Interesting. This analysis is 180 degrees away from every Wall Street analyst that says copper will continue spiking to the moon.

Keystone does not have any trades on long or short in copper. COPX, SCCO and CPER are three tickers to watch. In a week or two, when the copper weekly chart goes completely neggie d, Keystone will consider shorting one of these tickers. Watch the MACD line on the weekly charts. When it turns neggie d to join the other indicators, that is the top, but do not get greedy, ride it lower for 2 or 3 weeks and get out. There will be dip-buyers wanting to reenter still believing in all that supercycle jazz. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11 AM EST: GS commodity expert Jeffrey Currie talks about copper on Bloomberg. Add him to the list; another person that does not mention coronavirus (COVID-19) in Peru. Everybody touts the demand side for copper expecting a glorious recovery. 20 million Americans that are unemployed and underemployed are not demanding anything unless they can get a decent job and money in their hands. Humorously, those three little men in Peru and Bolivia, are hurrying around the world's copper mine, each wearing a colorful alpaca poncho, one running the shovel, one running the truck and one running the wash plant. They are doing the best they can.

Monday, February 22, 2021

NYMO McClellan Oscillator Daily Chart


The stock market should continue selling off until the NYMO lands in that green box. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Three Black Crows; Bulls Desperately Trying to Hold the 50-Week MA Support


Utilities sink lower over the last three weeks; look at those Three Black Crows staring at you (three consecutive red candlesticks moving lower which usually indicates that the trend has changed to the downside). This is bigtime right now. The UTIL 50-week MA at 821.53 is critical support. Bad things happen real fast if it fails.

Think of the UTIL 50-wk MA as a trap-door. If UTIL fails, expect the S&P 500 to drop 30 or 40 points within the following hour. That would be a good outcome since the other outcome would be the stock market crashing and going into free fall. Watch it like a hawk. If you stuck around on the long side in the stock market and you see the 821.53 fail, you will pucker. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:46 AM EST: UTIL 826.90... 827.14 .... price is teasing lower. LOD is 826.78 so that is key.

Note Added 11:52 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. UTIL 826.45..... price takes out the LOD. That's not good, for bulls. It is good for bears. Only 4 more points and a wild show will begin.

Note Added 11:56 AM EST: UTIL 826.25 a new LOD. This is fun. The knives are sharpened. We're ready.

Note Added 12:52 PM EST: UTIL 822.80 a new LOD. Steady.... you have to wait until you see the white's of their eyes. UTIL 50-week MA is 821.43. Something very special may happen.

Note Added 12:59 PM EST: UTIL 823.06. 

Note Added 1:11 PM EST: UTIL 822.60 a new LOD.

Note Added 1:30 PM EST: UTIL 825.41. Nothing to see here folks, move along, move along, go home folks, nothing to see here, that's it, move along, there you go, move along ...... Utilities came down to tease death but recover back to the 825 handle headed higher. The bulls held the line at the 50-wk MA support, for now.

Saturday, February 20, 2021

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 2/20/21; 507K AMERICANS DEAD FROM CHINA FLU; 2.5 Million Dead Worldwide; US Vaccinations Continue; Global Pandemic Improving; Vaccine Diplomacy; Quest for US Herd Immunity; Fourth Wave Fears; Texas Power Tragedy; 15 US States Display Rising Active Cases Curves Despite Improving Data; France, Czechia, Qatar, Bahrain and Peru are the Worst Covid Nations; H5N8 Bird Flu; Coronavirus Article 34




By K E Stone (Keystone)

The China Flu has sickened over 111 million people worldwide killing 2.5 million global citizens. 86.1 million earthlings have recovered from coronavirus. 78% of the people that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame; this number improves by four percentage-points over the last 11 days. Almost 4 out of every 5 people that contract covid around the world recover. 1 in 5 people have lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or die.

2.3% of the people that are infected with covid around the world die which is a slight increase from 11 days ago. 1 in every 46 people on earth that are infected with the China Flu will die.  1.5% of the world’s population of 7.67 billion people has been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 69 people.

Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of the two secret bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit the one lab; the commies will deny the existence of the second lab). The dirtbag communists have developed a very effective virus that has brought the world to its knees; humans kneel in front of Xi. Once the world defeats the pandemic, without help from an obstinate China, nations will need to form an alliance and pay dirtbag Dictator Xi a visit and discuss his bioterrorism aspirations.

In the United States, over 28.6 million people are infected with covid. Nearly 508K are dead. OVER 500K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID-19 as per the Worldometer data. The Johns-Hopkins data is above 493K dead and will likely cross 500K in 3 or 4 days which will be Monday or Tuesday, perhaps sooner. Ohio just discovered 4K dead in their data that was not reported nationally so J-H is likely in the process of incorporating that stack of dead bodies. The data sets complement one another nicely with the J-H data following the Worldometer data by a few days.

18.8 million Americans have recovered from covid. 66% of US citizens that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame; this number improves by 3 percentage-points over the last 11 days. 2 out of every 3 people that contract covid in America recover which is not as good as the world’s average. This is likely in part due to the obesity problem in America which leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as diabetes, that place the person at a disadvantage once they catch the virus. 1 in 3 Americans have lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or die.

1.8% of Americans that are infected with covid die which is a slight increase from 11 days ago. 1 in every 56 US citizens that are infected with the China Flu will die. The death rate in the US is below the world’s average. 8.666% of the American population of 330 million people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 12 Americans have been stricken with coronavirus a terrible number.

There are six nations with worse total cases per one million population but the United States is the 900-pound dead gorilla laying on the living room sofa. Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, UK and France, Israel and Bahrain, Georgia and Czechia, and Panama are the nations in this terrible highly-infected club. The worst-infected nations on earth are the US, eastern and western European countries, the Middle East and Central America.

The data is improving and the good news continues that was highlighted in the last article. Vaccine production and application rates are increasing. The world is recovering. The big worry remains the three major variants; the UK strain B117, the South Africa strain B1351 and the Brazil strain B11248 or P1. The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but less-so for the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain.

The UK strain is the most prominent on American soil currently but the DNA sequencing tests required to identify the outbreak remain woefully inadequate. Medical professionals are working 24/7 to expand the genomic surveillance so the variants can be properly traced and tracked within the United States.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better days ahead.

The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.

China, Japan and South Korea are in this group. Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases chart.

For the Western countries, such as the US and European nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2 weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or authoritarian state).

The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the bell shape.

The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the 7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you identify the trend of the data.

The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you see in the bar chart.

For the US daily new cases chart above, the peak in new cases is easily seen as 1/8/21 with 308K cases. Adding 28 days since the US is a Western nation, is a forecast of 2/5/21 for the peak in the US active cases curve. The 7-day MA on the daily new cases chart is sloping lower for 5 weeks which is fantastic news and paints a rosy future. The move from 308K daily cases to 78K daily cases is a 75% decrease in daily new cases in only 5 weeks. Halleluiah! is what Leonard Cohen sings.

However, caution is warranted because of the upswing in daily new cases at the right side of the chart. The low in daily new cases occurs on 2/15/21, last Monday, at 54K cases the best number since October. The daily news cases head higher for four straight days after the low up to 79K new cases yesterday.

Here is a charting technique you can use to assess the path ahead. Do you see how the daily new cases spike higher every few days over the last five weeks but each time the bar comes up to the blue 7-day MA line, it is spanked back down? The daily new cases are now testing this 7-day MA resistance line again. It is for all the marbles, folks.

If the daily new cases spike up though the 7-day MA line, that says the downward trend is changing and daily new cases will keep rising here on out. This would mean the B117 strain is starting to bite hard. It would destroy the current hope and optimism and cause the active cases curve to once again curve higher.

On the positive side, if the daily new cases are spanked back down and fall back below the 7-day MA line, that will be the best news of the pandemic. It will tell you that the virus is being defeated and the active cases curve will keep rolling-over lower to form the bell shape and signal great times ahead.

We will know the outcome in a few days. The weekend data may be soft so that will help keep the bars below the 7-day MA but Monday and Tuesday data may be the big test. Simply reference the Worldometer chart above on Tuesday and see how it turned out and you will know what the future brings before anyone else.

Another chart trend to watch is the decrease in daily new cases where the bars are printing lower lows and lower highs. During the five-week decrease in daily new cases, the pattern of lower lows in cases and lower highs in cases continues week after week to present. The prior daily new cases highs were between 2/10/21 and 2/12/21, that prior cluster, where the 100K line is at, so that is another line in the sand. If the daily new cases move above those prior highs at 100K-ish, the US is screwed.

Using the two tools to gauge the pandemic path forward, if daily new cases remain below the 7-day MA, America is in the clear and it looks like the new strains will not be a major issue, and with vaccinations continuing, the future is wine, roses and happiness. Dr Fauci says if the data continues to improve a normal baseball season may be in play from April forward.

If the daily new cases start moving above the 7-dday MA, forget that rosy talk, it’s over and a new wave is likely beginning, probably due to B117. If the daily new cases then balk at the 100K level and move lower again, there will be renewed hope and optimism.

If the daily new cases continue higher after punching up through the 7-day MA, and then punch up through the 100K level, America is screwed. Bad things will begin happening. The active cases curve will move higher and heaven forbid that curve takes out the 1/31/21 high, if so, it would be disaster. The next two weeks are key. America fears a fourth wave, or fourth surge, some are calling it.

For the US active cases chart above, the peak on 1/31/21 is holding and the chart is rolling-over to the downside to form the bell shape. The good news from the last article is fantastic news now. America has the virus on the run, and this is occurring without all that many vaccinations in the bag, which makes it better news. Again, the only trouble that would derail the optimism is the variants, hiding in the bushes, ready to pounce.

The Keystone Model forecasted 2/5/21 for the peak in active cases and 1/31/21 is close enough for government work. The peak in active cases occurs 23 days after the peak in daily new cases. There was concern that the Superbowl on 2/7/21 would be a superspreader event. The Christmas and holiday fun was 12/18/20 (Friday starting the travel push) through 12/26/20. The daily new cases peak on 1/8/21 so that is 13 to 21 days after the holiday or 14 days, exactly 2 weeks, after Christmas Day. Daily new cases rose from 12/27/20 forward so from 2 days after Christmas forward. New Years is more of a honey holiday this year with the pandemic, like Valentine’s Day, so a big increase in cases would not be expected after these events.

Thus, assessing the Superbowl, the daily new cases would be expected to increase from 2/9/21 going forward and perhaps peak on 2/21/21 (tomorrow). The daily cases bumped higher into 2/11/21 but then quickly trailed-off again which is good news. The high in daily new cases today is below the 2/11/21 bump so that tells you the Superbowl is likely not a noticeable superspreader event.

The fans attending the Superbowl returned home and any increase in transmission will likely blend in with the general numbers and not stick out as a key event. This is encouraging for defeating the pandemic since people take COVID-19 seriously and are doing what they can to prevent transmission (masking and social distancing). Also, Florida, where the Superbowl was held, is a pathway for B117 from the UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and eastern Europe, so it is good news that cases do not appear to be spiking in the US two weeks hence.

The only remaining flies in the ointment are the variant strains. The red line on the US active cases chart indicates the bad path ahead if the daily cases begin spiking above the 7-day MA and then if daily new cases move above 100K. The blue line is our current path. Say a prayer, or make a wish, that the blue path will become Our Destiny.

The blue path on the US active cases chart is the path forward unless the variants derail the joy. An encouraging sign from a chart perspective is that this latest flattening of the curve is not so much a flattening but a peak and now a developing steady downward path which is excellent. Note the two prior times the curve flattened when we had a chance to defeat the virus. The fact that the top of the curve occurs quickly and it is now sloping downward, rather than the prior sideways behavior, is a positive sign.

For the US daily new deaths chart above, the trend is clearly lower which is great news. The daily new deaths drop in a pattern of lower lows and lower highs which is excellent. The brown 7-day MA shows the downward trend which is a welcome sight. Nonetheless, 1,988 Americans died from covid yesterday. Everyone knows what it is like to lose a loved one, it is tough. There are hundreds of thousands of families in the United States whose lives will never be the same.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) does a great job with the mortality data and charts. The news is never happy, however, when discussing human death. The IHME predicts that US deaths will cross 500K on Tuesday or Wednesday. IHME estimates that 615K Americans will be dead on 6/1/21 at the current pace. The worse-case scenario is 645K dead by 6/1/21.

In the 1918 Spanish Flu, 675K Americans died. Hopefully, the IHME death curve will go completely flat. Americans wore masks from 1918 to 1920 when the Spanish Flu finally finished its wrath and herd immunity was achieved for the world.

Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but Americans should be well-behaved until then as the winter season continues in the northern hemisphere. More good news. Spring will be coming bringing warmer weather so the April through September heat will help keep COVID-19 at bay. Folks will not be couped-up inside breathing each other’s germs. There are lots of reasons to be positive but the B117 variant is breathing down the back of your neck.

The US coronavirus hospitalizations data continues improving to 59,882. The peak hospitalizations are 132,474 on 1/6/21 a 55% reduction in only 5 weeks. For waves 1 and 2, the two peaks in hospitalizations were at 60K and the two dips were at 30K. The United States is down to 60K now which is great. Sub 60K would be fantastic since it would be less hospitalizations than the prior peaks. If hospitalizations drop below 30K, confetti can be thrown as the champagne is poured.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world at nearly 29 million followed by India (11 million), Brazil (10.1), Russia (4.2), UK (4.1), France (3.6), Spain (3.1), Italy (2.8),  Turkey (2.6), Germany (2.4), Colombia (2.2), Argentina (2.1), Mexico (2.0), Poland (1.6), Iran (1.6), South Africa (1.5), Ukraine (1.3), Peru (1.3), Indonesia (1.3), Czechia (1.1), Netherlands (1.1), Canada (841K), Portugal (796K), Chile (796K), Romania (777K), Belgium (750K), Israel (745K), Iraq (665K), Sweden (631K), Pakistan (570K), Philippines (559K), Switzerland (548K) and Bangladesh (543K).

That is 33 nations with over 500,000 coronavirus cases same as 11 days. It is noticeable how the data only increased marginally for most nations while many others were flat. Brazil, France, Peru, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sweden and Iraq may be experiencing difficulties ahead.

The herd immunity math is straight forward and provided in the prior articles. About 240 million Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. The vaccinations need to occur by Labor Day, 9/6/21, since the new flu and covid season will begin for the Fall which may bring new challenges and variants. The 9/6/21 drop-dead date is 198 days away.

The Bloomberg vaccine tracker reports 199 million vaccine doses administered around the world. In the US, 61 million doses are administered for a 1.5 million doses per day vaccination rate. The rate slumps a little because of the cold winter weather wreaking havoc across the US. The data does not provide the number of people that receive two doses versus one dose but taking the 61 million doses and halving it estimates that 30 million are vaccinated with two doses.

The US needs to vaccinate 240 million people and taking away 30 is another 210 million people remaining, or 420 million doses. President Biden said 600 million total doses would be available by July. If 420 million doses need administered within 198 days, this is a 2.1 million dose per day vaccination rate to finish by Labor Day. This rate goal increases marginally higher each day that it is not achieved.

At the 1.5 million dose per day rate, the 210 million remaining people to be vaccinated would be finished in 280 days, or 11/17/21; November! At the current vaccination rate, everyone can give thanks at Thanksgiving that we have reached the herd immunity vaccination rate, however, we will not be able to celebrate since we will be sick with the new Fall flu and new covid variant.

If the US can vaccinate at 2.5 million doses per day, the remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 168 days, or 8/7/21. Herd immunity will not occur until August even at the 2.5 rate.

If the US can vaccinate at 3.0 million doses per day, the remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 140 days, or 7/10/21. Independence Day July 4th would be a nice goal.

If the US can vaccinate at 3.5 million doses per day, the remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 120 days, or 6/20/21. The first day of summer would greet Americans with joyous herd immunity news.

If the US can vaccinate at 4.0 million doses per day, the remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 105 days, or 6/5/21, only 3-1/2 months away. Even at robust rates, the vaccinations would continue into June.

The anti-vaccination dilemma is going to come to a head in April and May. The United States is going to have plenty of vaccine available but sometimes you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink. Vaccine incentives will have to be provided to entice some folks. Most will probably be adamant in their refusal to be vaccinated. This would place America just shy of the percentages needed for herd immunity.

Johnson & Johnson is beefing-up its vaccine to better handle the new variants. Less doses may be available when it is approved but it will likely be a state-of-the-art vaccine ready to treat the latest variant. The South Africa B1351 strain may be problematic in a few weeks.

The US has doubled-down on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine shipments so it is no longer important to have the J&J vaccine available to achieve herd immunity. However, as the refusals to get vaccinated increase in April and May, it would be nice to have the J&J vaccine. Many people do not want the vaccine because of the new mRNA technology but some would be agreeable to receiving a one-shot conventional style vaccine from J&J.

For the herd immunity calculation, 15% of Americans are assumed to have had covid and acquired antibodies. The US needs 70% to 90% of the population to have antibodies to claim herd immunity; call that 78% as an average. Thus, 63% of Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. About 10% of people will not return for the second shot so adding that back is 73% of Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. There are 330 million people in the US so 73% is about 240 million people.

Interestingly, the improvement in the data and charts may be due to more Americans having been infected with covid than thought. About 9% of Americans are infected and adding another 6% that we do not know about, is the 15% used for the herd immunity calculation. 15% of the US is 50 million people. However, what if it is more like 100 million Americans that have had covid? Most are asymptomatic so people do not even realize they are sick. Many people have fatigue, pain and so forth but simply chalk it up to getting old and they go on living life instead of hiding under the bed. These folks may have had covid and never knew it.

If the infection number to determine antibodies was double the 15% estimate, that is 30%, the 100 million people number, then only 58% more Americans would need vaccinated to reach herd immunity and that is 191 million people. Take away 30 million already vaccinated (estimated with two doses), that is only 160 million more Americans that need vaccinated. At the 1.5 million dose per day rate, that is 107 days which is June for herd immunity.

Also, many Americans live in rural settings away from the busy city life and hurried humans. These folks go to the grocery store once per week and that is about it. Church is on line for most places nowadays. The combination of the virus already infecting far more Americans than anyone realizes, the vaccination program expanding, and the rural isolated living of many folks, and, perhaps, the natural burnout of the virus after it is in circulation for over one year, sends the data and charts to a good place.

The next month of pandemic data is going to be extremely interesting and determine how the year will proceed and finish. The US is in good shape but keep the fingers, and your unsightly toes, crossed. The next 2 weeks will probably dictate the path ahead for the next 2 or 3 months.

The 2-dose versus 1-dose controversy continues. The Fauch says stick with two doses because that is what the drug trial data verifies. The UK has had success tamping down their nasty B117 outbreak that is more contagious than the standard coronavirus giving citizens one dose and not so much worried about the timeliness of the second shot. The first shot provided from 66% to 80% or more effectiveness.

America is weighing the same decision but the consensus is sticking with the 2-shot regimen. Looking at the situation simply, there are millions of doses of vaccine coming. The Whitehouse says double and triple shipments are going out this weekend and the vaccination sites will need to ramp up staffing and appointments. Thus, there will be vaccine out the wazoo and millions of Americans that will not take the shot. There will likely not be a worry about supply or availability. Therefore, the Fauch is likely correct; use 2 doses.

In the UK, the Brits are more prone to obey government. That is why people do not visit London like decades past since you have to be worried about getting stabbed on the street. The guns were taken away from the docile public, anxious to give up their rights, so the criminals rule the sidewalks with knives. The vaccine is the same way.

Over 80% of Brit’s plan to take or have had the vaccine and the support grows daily. They are lining up for their sustenance. The number increased from 65% due to the fear of the more virulent B117 strain. Tell the Brit’s they need to take the shot and they immediately kneel in front of you and roll-up their sleeve. This was an advantage for the UK but will be a challenge for the US. Many Americans do not want to conform to the establishment and do not want to take the vaccine just because ‘the man’ says so. Many Americans kneel for no man. Other weak souls, like many in the UK, kneel and do whatever they are told without question or rebuttal.

Another concern is that one dose only provides the partial immunity so coronavirus may interact with these individuals and produce a strong variant strain. That would not be good. America will probably stick with the 2-dose regimen for now. In the UK, some of the second doses have taken up to 12 weeks. The recommendation by Pfizer and Moderna is for the second shots to take place in a 3 to 4 week time frame. No one is having an egg if the second shot is administered 5 or 6 weeks after the first but the United States will avoid deviating any further than that which is likely the correct path forward.

The vaccine passports remain a hot topic. Israel now issues a green card to those that have been vaccinated which allows them to travel freely and attend events. Freedom is only an illusion on planet Earth in 2021.

It would be a huge mistake for the US to force mandatory vaccines; it will result in civil war. A government has no right to violate a human body. If people are locked out of traveling or attending events because they refuse to be vaccinated, many will live with that, so the action would only serve to devastate the economy. If people want to take the vaccine, great, take it, if not, don’t. Everyone has their own bag and should not criticize any decision that others make.

Keep taking zinc and vitamin D-3 which boosts your immune system and may help prevent the onset of the virus. Vitamins A and C are also helpful and turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless of coronavirus. In addition, initial medical studies show that selenium supplementation may be helpful in reducing the effects of coronavirus. Selenium is already known as a cancer-preventive supplement. As always, check with doc before mapping-out any vitamin and supplement program. Keystone takes all the supplements and vitamins listed daily, and has never had a flu shot, and has never taken an antibiotic, and is an old guy, so there is no reason to start that vaccination stuff now. Everyone has to make their own decisions.

The best prevention is to simply stay as far away as possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’ and choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry about contracting covid at all.

The worry about vaccine nationalism a month ago has morphed into a happier more collegial vaccine diplomacy around the world. India is sending vaccine to the Caribbean Islands. Europe commits to funding the COVAX program, that provides vaccines to third world countries, but it is associated with WHO that has a soiled reputation from lying in bed with communist China. President Biden kicks in $4 billion for the COVAX effort. He better tell those jackasses to watch their spending and an audit is going to be performed when they are finished.

The US should tell Taiwan that we will help them with vaccine since the filthy mainland communists are screwing the island nation. China would be happy if Taiwan became completely infected with covid; then it would be easy to take control. The CCP are sick bastards and do not doubt they are thinking about it.

China and Russia are making their vaccines available worldwide, however, the global community are skeptical of these two partners in crime. China released the coronavirus bioweapon, either intentionally or accidentally, so only a fool would believe anything the communists say. The vaccines they are playing with use an HIV carrier which poses danger to the patient of contracting HIV. No thank you to the witches brew the filthy communists and Ruskies are mixing up in their bioweapon’s labs.

Russia is also dealing with a bird flu problem. Workers at a poultry plant became sick in December. Scientists confirm the first transmission of the H5N8 bird flu strain from animal to human. In the past, other bird flu strains such as H5N1, H7N9 and H9N2 have been transmitted from animal to human. The planet will likely have to deal with H5N8 in the future.

An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another 10-day period passes, and more data and information become available, to push the story forward.

This is Article 34 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus series of articles that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This thirty-fourth article is published on Saturday, 2/20/21.

The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad, devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in real time. Feel the wind in your hair. There is no time to think only to keep catching your breath as the events fly by.

All 34 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog and will be pulled together into a large book in the future providing the entire pandemic history chronicled in real-time. The COVID-19 pandemic information has been recorded, in detail, every day over the last year and it would be stupid to stop this historic documentation now. The last few articles are linked here if you want to come up to speed with the pandemic saga over the last month.

The thirty-first article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 1/17/21; 407K AMERICANSDEAD; Coronavirus is Smacking South Carolina, North Carolina, New York, NewJersey and Virginia; New UK Strain B117 Lurking in the Shadows; GLOBAL TOTALCOVID CASES EXCEED 95 MILLION; Global Hotspots Include Mexico, Central America,South America, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia,Eastern Europe, Portugal, Spain and UK; US Vaccination Program Fiasco; VaccineHesitancy; US CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY 1/20/21; President Trump Departs;President Biden Inauguration 1/20/21; OVER 430K AMERICANS DEAD FROM COVID;GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES TOP 100 MILLION; Coronavirus Article 31 published on 1/17/21.

The thirty-second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 1/30/21; OVER 450K AMERICANS DEAD; Herd Immunity by Labor Day is a Formidable Goal; Vaccine Disorder Continues; EU (European Union) Fires First Shot in the Vaccine Nationalization Wars; California, Texas and New Jersey Are Flattening the Active Cases Curves a Positive Development; America Improves but the New Variants May Destroy Hope; Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Bahrain, UAE, Spain, Portugal, France, Nigeria, Mexico and United States Remain COVID-19 Hot Spots; Global Coronavirus Cases Exceed 103 Million; Global Deaths Exceed 2.2 Million; President Biden Takes Control; J&J Vaccine Seeks Emergency Approval; 471K AMERICANS DEAD; Coronavirus Article 32 published on 1/30/21.

The thirty-third article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 2/9/21; 480K AMERICANS DEAD;US Vaccination Program Gathers Momentum; Global Pandemic Improving; VaccinePassports; Herd Immunity; Superbowl and New Variants May Destroy Hope; Worst USStates are Virginia, South Carolina, New York, Maryland and Georgia; Worst HotSpot Nations are France, Spain, Portugal, Bahrain, Qatar, Peru, Bolivia,Indonesia and Malaysia; Global Coronavirus Cases Exceed 107 Million; GlobalDeaths Exceed 2.35 Million; UNITED STATES CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 500K;Coronavirus Article 33 published on 2/9/21.

The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple-few days. The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.

The nations on the list below are experiencing the worst pandemic outbreaks currently (based on the data which nations may or may not be reporting truthfully) and are the worst global hotspots. The data is helpful in identifying broad regions that are experiencing outbreaks.

The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected peaks in active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest.

Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan are back in good graces after defeating the latest virus waves which proved difficult.

Israel is delivering vaccinations faster than any other country at the rate of 79 doses per 100 people. The UAE is at 51 doses per 100 people, the UK is 26, US 18, Chile 15, and Turkey 8 doses per 100 people.

Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus decides to dissipate and move on or die on its own accord. Many past viruses linger for about 18 months and then fade away. The COVID-19 saga is ongoing for 13 months although cases may have been occurring in the United States in November 2019 which is 16 months ago.

Belgium (Third Wave) (there are issues with the data; numbers are likely higher; it appears the daily case numbers are likely suppressed)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever for third wave)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
 
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days) (conditions slowly improving)
 
Egypt (Second Wave)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date(cases starting to ramp higher again)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
 
Ireland (Third Wave) (problematic data hampers analysis; the daily new cases are likely underreported)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
 
Bahrain (Third Wave)
2/15/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 9/16/20, 2/12/21 and 2/15/21)
2/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
France (Third Wave)
2/17/21 New Case Peak Date (new cases remain steady and robust)
3/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Peru (Third Wave begins)
2/18/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 8/16/20 and 2/18/21)
3/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Qatar (Second Wave)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date
3/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Czechia (Fourth Wave begins)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
3/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

France is in terrible shape. The daily new cases remain robust and strong driving the active cases chart higher and higher. France! Get your act together! France is one of the few nations that are the worst in the entire world. What is going on there? Put the wine, baguette and cigarettes down and go home and social distance. France is going to implement the ‘crisis organization’ plan which will provide more hospital beds, increase staffing and delay non-essential surgeries. This should have already been done. Do it! Chop, chop. You are under siege France. Wake up! The outbreak in France may impact all of Europe.

Czechia takes a turn for the worse beginning a fourth wave higher. Czechia has been beaten like a rented mule over the last year. Sweden deaths spike higher by 33 deaths yesterday which must be watched closely.

Peru falls back into covid Hell. Deaths in Peru are approaching the same levels as the first wave. In the worst news of this article, 50% to 60% of Peruvians that were infected with coronavirus in the past are now infected with a new variant! This is extremely troubling. Copper prices have shot to the moon since many mine workers are ill. Keep an eye on Chile. It rolled its active cases chart over lower but the country may be experiencing a developing problem. Bolivia, Peru and Chile are continuing to battle the pandemic.

India needs to tread softly. The daily new cases are taking a tiny move higher, ditto active cases, which may forecast major trouble for India ahead. Try to nip it in the bud, India! If an outbreak occurs in India going forward, you are witnessing the exact conception right now. Malaysia and Indonesia remain hot spots but they have improved.

The United States was taken off the bad list since its active cases curve is rolling-over to the downside. The worst covid nations are France, Czechia, Qatar, Bahrain and Peru, which is central and western Europe, Middle East and western side of South America as the worst hot spots. The world is in the best shape it has been in 4 or 5 months.

The troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have failed to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.

The pandemic has greatly improved despite all the drama with the vaccine roll-out. The number of Americans infected with coronavirus over the last year may be far higher than thought, due to the asymptomatic nature of the disease, so herd immunity may not be as far away as expected. Let’s hope the variants do not crush the hope and optimism.

Oregon (Third Wave) (data is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher trying to flatten)
 
Indiana (Third Wave) (data is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve peaking now)
 
Washington (Third Wave)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
 
Kansas (Second Wave) (data is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)
 
Maine (Second Wave) (data is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
 
Alaska (Second Wave) (data is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
 
Arizona (Second Wave) (data is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart is flattening)
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
 
Kentucky
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
 
Delaware (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)
 
Hawaii (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)
 
Maryland (Third Wave)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)
 
New York (Second Wave)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flattening)

South Carolina (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
 
Virginia (Second Wave)
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)

Considering the US active cases curve above and how it is sloping lower perhaps about to take a strong leg lower, which is a good thing (less active cases), it would be expected that far more of the active cases charts for the states would have rolled over to the downside, but they have not. The next couple weeks are a pivotal time in the pandemic. The US is at an inflection point and the hope is that the variants are manageable and the path is down with daily new cases and active cases.

There are nightly protests and riots in Portland and other Oregon cities which may be promoting the ongoing spread of coronavirus. California’s active cases curve rolls-over to the downside and mimics the US active cases chart as it should since it is such a populace state. California has a heavy weighting in the USA data.

Most states above have daily new cases trending lower for a few weeks but the active cases curves continue higher. You can smell a rat in some of that data. It will probably be discovered in the future that the daily new cases are underreported for at least a few of the states above. When it comes to numbers, never try to fool a mathematician.

Texas, USA, is hit with a major winter storm over the last week which crippled the electrical power grid that is not hooked up to another state’s grid (so they cannot be saved). Texas implemented rolling blackouts for several days and frigid temperatures burst water pipes that are not insulated for that warmer climate. Texas remains in chaos although power has been restored for most of the state.

The vaccinations were halted in Texas and other states since many roads are impassable. The FedEx and UPS trucks coming out of their warehouse hubs in Tennessee and Kentucky could not make vaccine deliveries due to the weather conditions. The Texas ship will try to be righted in the week ahead.

Biden plans to sign a disaster declaration for Texas that is hit with the winter storm and devastating power outages. The Texas disaster will cost millions if not perhaps billions in damage. Home Depot and Lowe’s will be selling copper pipe, solder and propane gas cylinders like gangbusters. Everyone across the south is kissing the plumber’s *ss crack that is always on display when he is working under the kitchen sink. Plumbers are the most popular people in America right now especially Texas.

Texas republican Senator Ted Cruz is under fire for taking a vacation to Cancun as people in his state are dying in the disaster. Lyin’ Ted is now Flyin’ Ted. An elderly couple was found dead in Texas, lying in their recliner, frozen to death. How could this happen in America? Texas hangs its head in shame. Cruz’s political future is toast.

New York democrat Governor Cuomo, given credit for properly handling the pandemic, that is now worse again, is under intense criticism with officials calling for his resignation or impeachment over the nursing home scandal. Cuomo allegedly hid about one-half of the nursing home deaths. He sent thousands of elderly folks back to the homes last year that were sick with covid and they and others died. Thousands died. Cuomo’s political future is toast.

President Biden proclaims, “I believe we will be approaching normalcy by the end of this year, but I cannot make that commitment to you.” Biden also says the vaccine shipments are ordered but the weather may hamper deliveries. He is being more candid and straight forward with the public which is needed after one year of King Donnie telling everyone all is fine as 400K American bodies are carried to the morgue.

CNN runs a story about Maria Aulenbacher, 111 years young, receiving a vaccine. Maria was alive during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Her life will be bookended by once-in-a-century pandemics.

Americans finally take a deep breath and relax. The pandemic is at a calm place right now. The data is the best it has been in four months. Things are looking up and trending in the right direction. Are the Americans seeing the eye of the storm with the backside (variants) yet to come, or, has the covid storm passed and the calm is here to stay? The US fears a fourth wave, or fourth surge, as some prefer.

The key takeaway is to watch the US daily new cases chart above. Watch to see if the new cases punch up through the 7-day MA as explained. That is a bad thing and then if the daily new cases exceed 100K trending higher, America is screwed. This will mean that the new variant/s, probably the UK’s B117, is smacking the USA. If the daily new cases remain under the 7-day MA, every day forward is wine and roses.

In the time it took to finish today’s article, the US coronavirus deaths are 509,711 as per Worldometer a whisker from 510K dead. The IHME projects 495K dead today. The Johns-Hopkins deaths are at 496K today and should cross the dreaded 500K mark tomorrow or Monday.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/21/21: Australia kicks off its vaccination program with Prime Minister Scott Morrison rolling up his sleeve. The standard public relations move is repeated around the world to instill confidence in the huddled masses. Of course a few elderly folks are paraded across the television screen as well an 85-year old rolling up her sleeve encouraging everyone to take the jab. A poll from the Aussie health department says 9% will never take the jab, 27% are on the fence and 64% definitely plan to take the shot. The breakdown is similar to other nations except for the UK which is over 80% compliance; Brit's blindly do whatever they are told. Aussies are a lot alike rural Americans; straight-forward folks with common sense. The anti-vaxxer's march in protest of the vaccination program with signs such as "Think While It Is Still Legal" and "Freedom Of Choice Is Important." The anti-vaccination demonstrators march and chant, "My Body, My Choice," which it is, unless a government says it is not. The world is coming up fast on a global anti-vaccination juggernaut. In a couple months, everyone that wants to be vaccinated in many Western nations will be vaccinated. What happens in April-June when the vaccine supplies are stacking up but people are not willing to roll-up their sleeves? If the bulk of the population does not get vaccinated, herd immunity does not occur. What will the feeble politicians decide? Will they force the huddled masses to the ground and shoot the mRNA vaccines into their veins whether they want it or not? It is interesting times. The plot thickens. 509,875 Americans are dead from coronavirus. CNN reports 498K Americans dead. The J-H data may cross 5 hundo thou later today. A half a million dead bodies is a lot. 400K are on King Donnie Trump's watch and 100K on Sleepy Joe Biden's watch.

Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/21/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Governor Cuomo says the South Africa variant B1351 is detected in New York. The first case of B1351 was discovered one month ago and there are now 21 cases in 10 states. There is likely more cases but the DNA sequencing capabilities in the US are limited. Cuomo touts the B1351 news trying to divert attention away from the nursing home scandal. Folks, look at this shiny bobble over here. Fauci says the data is looking better but he cautioned against complacency. He said Americans may have to wear masks into 2022. President Biden will wave the '500K Americans dead' banner early in the week to garner support for the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The cable news outlets will make a big deal of the grim 500K milestone. It is hard to grasp the number. If you filled 10 professional baseball or football stadiums with people, and then marched them off to their deaths, that is 500K dead people. Think back to the last time you sat in your home team stadium enjoying a sporting event; a professional football or baseball game. Picture the entire stadium filled, every seat, and realize that not only everyone in the stadium, but 10 times that amount, have died of coronavirus over the last year. It is amazing a bug can do that.

Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/21/21, at 2:40 PM EST: MSNBC cable news outlet announces 500K dead Americans from coronavirus. A red headline crosses the television, nicknamed a red-head, "US SURPASSES 500,000 COVID-19 DEATHS." A sad milestone. CNN news has not yet called the 500K level; it will probably be its major focus tomorrow.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/21/21: The back-to-school controversy continues. Biden falls down on the job when it comes to providing guidance on reopening schools. In fairness, it is a complicated subject. There are students from grade school to college in many different settings and locations, some are cramped inner city, others are in spacious rural areas. Biden promised that children will be back in school within his first 100 days. That deadline is April Fool's Day, 4/1/21, only 5 weeks away. At a town hall meeting hosted by CNN, Biden stumbled saying he wants kindergarten through 8th grade to return. Then there is the cheesy definition that returning to school one measly day per week will meet Biden's goal that kids are back in school. That is flimsy fig leaf. If teachers want vaccinated, vaccinate them! Most old folks will tell you to take care of the teachers; they sit home all day and watch television. Most elderly folks would rather see the teachers vaccinated and schools reopened; they see the hardship of their kids and grandchildren and when you are older you are mostly sitting at home watching television anyway. A delay in the shot for healthy elderly people would not be a big deal and most would encourage it if it removes the barrier of some teachers returning to work. Schools are controlled environments with teachers and students following masking guidelines, social distancing, hand washing and using hand sanitizer. Compare that to the local grocery store where Billy, the boy that typically retrieves the carts from the parking lot, picks his nose and then offers you the cart. Nellie, the checkout girl, is wearing her mask over her chin while corralling a cough with the back of her hand. You have an itch under your mask so you pick your nose and lips and then hand Nell the grocery card that provides points for future discounts. Do you get the picture. People are walking around in that environment as they worry about the controlled environment a school would offer. Teachers, get off your *sses and get back to work. Vacation's over.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/22/21: India wants to make sure the world knows that it will help other countries but it is focused on handling the pandemic in its nation first. The 'vaccine diplomacy' takes a back seat as 'vaccine nationalism' rears its ugly head again. Countries would be wise to steer away from nationalistic behavior, it created the long Great Depression in the 1930's. Nations slit each other's throats focusing on themselves so it all went down the rabbit hole. Countries should relax and consider that over the coming weeks and couple-three months, there will likely be plenty of vaccine available since millions of people never plan to take the shot. The US is playing catch-up this week doubling-up on vaccine shipments and deliveries as the winter cold snap subsides. Texas remains a mess an embarrassment to itself. The Texans voted in all those jack*sses making stupid decisions so they can blame themselves. One of Keystone's many career hats is a professional engineer, and the reason that winterization was not provided is likely money. Companies and governments are cheap so they saved money not placing the proper systems in place and this is for both the conventional fuel sources such as oil, gas and coal, and the new green energy sources such as windmills and solar. All failed. Specifications are written and approved for every piece of equipment. The engineers likely recommended winterization but bean-counter's that lick management's shoes, nixed it. That's the way it goes in the engineering business the last four decades. Keystone always documented the refusal of the companies he consulted for to do the right thing because the Texas debacle is always the end result. The witchhunt begins and the knock on the engineers door occurs with management saying, "You screwed-up." Keystone would simply bring up the documentation and emails on the computer from the prior meetings and tell the bosses, "Nope, you screwed-up, jackass." They never liked hearing that especially when they realized someone knew that they were stupid in advance of them being stupid.