By K E Stone (Keystone)
US wave 7 is on the ropes. It’s about time. Chariot’s A Comin’Good News, as the ole Negro spiritual proclaims. The lingering, stubborn, sideways
US wave 7 maintains a downward path from the peak top at 152K daily new cases
on 7/21/22 almost 3 weeks in the rearview mirror. Truly good news.
The US wave 7 daily new cases chart is shown above and it
has been a drama for the last 3-1/2 months. Wave 7 is a flat top unlike the
other 6 pandemic waves that were the characteristic inverted V pattern with a
defined peak. Wave 7 displays the sideways topping profile because of the many
omicron subvariants at play one gaining dominance over another extending the
wave in a sick game of covid leapfrog.
Wave 7 starts as a BA2 Omicron Subvariant little sister wave
in the northeastern states with New York and New Jersey taking the lead (BA2
dominant wave). BA2 is handled without too much trouble or effort but as the
infection wave expands inland, it morphs into a BA4 and BA5 dominant wave and
then a BA5 dominant wave.
Many states in the West, Midwest and South, show wave 7 as a
single wave moving higher and beginning to retreat. These waves are already BA5
dominant. Interestingly, the contagious BA4 and BA5 bugs work backwards to take
another bite of the Big Apple and other northeastern states since their initial
waves were BA2 dominant (7a). This behavior creates a double-hump for wave 7
for states such as New York and New Jersey with the BA5 dominant wave (7b)
flexing its covid muscles.
This double-hump pattern, 7a and 7b, is also reflected in
the overall US daily new cases chart although to a lesser extent than the
individual states with the double-hump such as New York and New Jersey. A more
subtle double-hump pattern appears in the US wave 7 close-up chart above since
it is mixing together the double-humps and the single waves.
The chart shows the BA2 subvariant starting wave 7. Then the
BA4 and BA5 bugs stretch their muscles becoming the dominant pathogen. The
holidays create subtle bumps in cases but none can be called superspreader
events (superspreader events may be in the pandemic past since populations are
either vaccinated, or had COVID-19, or both).
BA 275 is sneaking around in the bushes during wave 7. BA46
is another bug trying to prove it is bigger and badder than BA5 but so far that
is not the case. Actually, everything is Feelin’ Groovy.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. Wave 7 is
petering out but the cases need to keep dropping without any additional
surprises from BA5 or BA46. The Worldometer data isnow delayed by 2 days for an
unknown reason so the US state data has a 2-day lag instead of 1 day; not good.
The case data needs tabulated at a much faster rate for any
future pandemic; the CDC and others should focus on this effort because data
that is 2 days old is bad enough but numbers that are several days old, or a
week old or more, like the CDC’s data, is inexcusable.
The US reports 42K cases for Sunday, 92K on Saturday and
110K on Friday. The peak for wave 7 is 152K cases on 7/21/22. The following
week’s peak is 140K cases on 7/28/22. Last week’s peak is 127K cases on 8/3/22.
It’s good stuff verifying the downward trend for wave 7 as long as no other
subvariants are sneaking around in the bushes trying to get in the back door.
The 7-day MA is at 83K cases and expected to continue lower.
The US active cases chart is shown above and that tiny hook
lower at the end of the chart is a happy sight. Active cases peak at 4 million
over the last week and now slip just under 3.8 million. The active cases need
to drop and form the coveted bell shape to prove that wave 7 is being defeated.
It looks like a done deal but never count your chickens before they hatch.
There should be more substantive drops in daily new and active cases during the
week ahead.
The US daily new deaths chart is shown above. It makes your
blood boil that the United States can be so incompetent to allow the COVID-19
deaths to remain at 300 to 400 souls per day for nearly 4 months running. It is
shameful. Sickening. Biden is an incompetent manager just like Trump.
Whitehouse COVID-19 coordinator Dr Jha said 2 weeks ago that
40K courses of Paxlovid were distributed during the prior week. There are 2
more weeks in the past so were 40K or more courses of Paxlovid distributed then
also. How about last week? How about now? The success or failure of Biden’s
distribution of Paxlovid can be linked to US deaths.
The 7-day MA trend line for US deaths shows a slight
downward bias now but it is nothing to hang your hat on. If we are getting
one-month beyond when the major distribution of Paxlovid occurred as reported
by Dr Jha, but there is no change in the death rate, something stinks and the
smell would be coming from the Whitehouse.
The death rate needs to go sub 300 bodies per day pronto and
establish a defined drop going forward, otherwise, Sleepy Joe and Dr Jha would
have failed at saving American lives with Paxlovid.
The individual US states display daily new cases charts that
are rolling over to the downside; great news. Georgia continues struggling with
elevated cases but the data stopped 6 days ago.
Over the last year, there is a trend with some countries and
some US states, that when the daily cases start looking ugly and attention is
drawn to the outbreak, the data stops. Then, a couple weeks later, when the
cases are rolling over the data magically reappears again. Politicians and
institutional leaders do not like to look bad.
Indiana was struggling but it may be turning the corner with
daily cases subsiding. Kentucky is also struggling due to the flooding disaster
with cases remaining elevated. Maskless President Biden and First Lady Jill
viewed the flooding and met with Kentuckians.
On the world stage, Japan is a China Virus disaster. Japan’s
daily new cases chart is shown above. The 7-day MA for daily new cases is at
214K cases per day. 1 million Japanese are infected with covid every 4 days.
Japan’s population is 125 million. Thus, about 1% of the Japanese population is
contracting COVID-19 every 4 days. That is insane.
When everyone is protected like babies and there is very
little natural immunity in a population, the virus goes on a feeding frenzy
attacking the endless supply of juicy virgin hosts. Japan’s COVID-19 deaths
continue higher averaging 154 souls per day teasing record levels.
South Korea’s daily new cases chart is shown above. The
7-day MA is at 104K daily new cases per day heading higher. South Korea was the
gold standard on how to handle the pandemic in 2020 but the country is now in
shambles at the hand of omicron.
Like Japan, the population was shielded for 2 years so there
is very little natural immunity at play. BA5 is dancing along the streets of
Seoul making people sick with covid and claiming some souls. South Korea’s
death rate increases to 32 bodies per day heading higher. US House Speaker
Pelosi and her entourage were just in Japan and South Korea so if they test
positive it will show up later in the week or on the weekend.
Russia’s daily new cases chart is shown above. A new wave
has started with cases pushing towards 20K cases per day. It will be
interesting to see how much the wave expands and if it has any impact on ending
dirtbag Dictator Putin’s heinous war against Ukraine.
Tragically, 80K Russian troops have been killed or wounded
in the Ukraine War now 5-1/2 months along. The 80K includes about 20 to 30K
that were killed. That leaves about 50K or more troops wounded (out of action).
Russia has lost one-half the fighting force that was assembled at the Ukraine
border in January and February.
Wil the Ruskies revolt against Putin? Probably not since
only about one-quarter of the Russian population actually knows what is going
on. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers need healthcare for the rest of their
lives. Add this caseload to the new pandemic wave that is underway. Can
Russia’s hospital system handle this massive caseload ahead?
The Russian people will come to realize that Putin is a
piece of filth that took their kid’s lives. Vlad the Impaler also took their
arms, and legs, and eyes. Perhaps the contagious BA5 bug will find its way to
Moscow and one of Vlad’s palaces? BA5 would love Putin’s sick immunocompromised
body.
France’s daily new cases chart is shown above. It has been a
wild ride this year for France with the major BA1 wave, the BA2 wave that was
defeated in April, and then the BA5 wave raised its ugly face; a trifecta of
misery. France, Germany and Italy are all in good shape. The French are back to
enjoying their wine, baguette and cigarettes at the local café.
The BA2 and BA5 humps are much more defined on France’s
daily new cases chart as compared to the United States. Perhaps the US has a
stronger natural immunity level at play than central and western Europe? The US
follows Europe’s lead so the demise of the infection waves in France, Germany
and Italy portend good things for the US going forward.
The Philippines daily new cases chart is shown above. New
infection waves are underway for Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia but
fortunately, the numbers remain in check and are not getting out of hand as
yet. The Philippines is averaging 4K cases per day and rising. Indonesia and
Malaysia hint that the daily cases may be starting to level off. Pelosi was in
Malaysia last week hitting all the covid hotspots.
Chile’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Cases are
rising in recent days and the suspected culprit is BA5. The 7-day MA is at 9.5K
cases per day and rising. Argentina and Chile, in southern South America, had
begun their infection waves before the other countries on the continent and
recovered first, however, like the northeastern states in the US, the BA5
backwash occurs creating another wave bump in daily cases.
Argentina is not experiencing the double-hump as yet and
this may be a blip for Chile with cases falling away again in short order. Much
of South America is on the mend and likely hit with the BA5 bug as part of
their recent and ongoing waves so there should not be a second hump in cases
for these nations.
The world’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Finally,
there is happy talk because the 7-day MA trend line is moving lower at 797K
cases per day sub 800K which is great news. Next, the cases need to go sub 700K
per day. It is obvious who the major players are; Japan at 214 K cases per day,
South Korea at 104K cases per day, and the US at 83K cases per day.
Combining the Three Stooges is 401K cases per day a big
chunk of the 797K total COVID-19 cases per day on the planet. Exactly 50%,
one-half, of all new China Virus cases in the world are occurring in Japan,
South Korea or the United States. Global cases will drop dramatically once
these three blind mice get their act together.
The world’s daily new deaths chart is shown above. Sadly,
global deaths have been stubbornly elevated refusing to come down. On the
positive side, global covid deaths are at early pandemic levels (green line).
Japan is a big reason for the elevated deaths so as soon as the Japanese stop
dropping like flies, the world’s death rate will subside.
The global death rate is moving through 1.9K to 2.1K dead
bodies per day due to coronavirus. The 7-day MA is a hair under 2K deaths per
day a disappointing number 2-1/2 years into the exhausting pandemic. 2K is
still a lot of global citizens dying each day from the virus.
However, as stated, once the Japan deaths fall off, and if
the South Korean deaths can remain in check, and if the US deaths finally drop
if Paxlovid is truly being distributed properly, the global death rate will
resume the downtrend. It is great news, as the chart shows, that the deaths are
no longer increasing for the current infection waves 7, 8 and 9, if you call
the current behavior flat.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 94 million. India is next with 44.2 million total virus cases. France,
Brazil, Germany, UK, Italy, South Korea, Russia, Turkey, Japan, Spain, Vietnam,
Australia, Argentina, Netherlands, Iran and Mexico round out the top 18 worst
nations for total COVID-19 cases. France leapfrogs Brazil and is now the third
highest country in total coronavirus cases in the entire world. Japan leapfrogs
Spain. Australia leapfrogs Argentina.
COVID-19 has infected 590 million people worldwide. China
(the CCP) owes reparations to the world for its sick heinous crime against
humanity. 6.44 million people on Earth are dead from the China Flu a grim
statistic. 562 million global citizens have recovered from the virus.
95% (562/590) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. This number was 96% for many weeks so the
recovery percentage slips a hair as BA5 bites harder.
Worldwide, 1.1% (6.44/590) of the people that are infected
with covid die; 1 in 92 (hit the 1/x button on your calculator). This number
was 1.2% for over a year so slippage to 1.1% in recent weeks is great news
(less people are dying after they become infected compared to prior waves).
7.7% (590/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 13 people on earth. 0.08%
of the world’s population (6.44/7670) died from the pandemic; 1 in every 1,191
people on earth died from China Virus over the last couple years.
In the United States, 94 million people are infected with covid.
1.059 million Americans are dead. 89 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to 95% (89/94) of US citizens recovering after becoming infected
with COVID-19.
In the US, 1.1% (1.059/94.0) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. 1 in every 89 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus die. Thus, if
you are infected with China Virus in the United States, you have about a 1 in
90 chance of dying. 0.3% (1/330) of Americans have died from COVID-19 which is
1 in every 330 Americans over the last 2-1/2 years.
28% (94/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid; 1 in every 4 Americans (3.5 to be exact
so call it 2 in 7). The CDC said that one-half the US population, 50%, have
been infected by COVID-19 and have some level of antibody protection; it is
likely 60% or even 80% or more now as the omicron bugs work through the system.
The United States has 16% (94/590) of the COVID-19 cases in
the world. 1 in 6 people that become infected with covid on the planet are
Americans. The US vaccination program made an impact month’s ago, but not so
much in recent months.
The US accounts for 16% (1.059/6.44) of the China Flu deaths
in the world. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are Americans.
Over a year ago, it was 1 in 5 so vaccinations helped.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart is the
‘flatten the curve’ chart that represents the maximum stress and strain on the
medical system and healthcare workers. Once the active cases chart rolls over
forming the bell shape, the virus is being defeated and healthcare workers can
breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the daily new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For communist nations where
the populations must do what they are told or they receive a bullet in their
heads (China), and for smaller authoritarian nations (Eastern European
countries, Africa and Middle East nations), and many Asian nations where citizens
follow government rules without questioning authority (South Korea, Japan,
Singapore, Australia, New Zealand), the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 11 days after the peak in daily new cases.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases. It takes about 2 weeks longer for
a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or authoritarian
state because lockdowns are not strictly followed or enforced. As time moves
along, nations become better equipped and experienced to fend off outbreaks so the
time between the daily new cases peak and active cases peak is shortening.
After 2-1/2 years, Western nations are experienced at
handling the virus so the distance between the daily and active cases peaks are
decreasing towards the 11-day distance where the authoritarian and communist
style nations are at that enforce the strict draconian rules to tamp down
infections. Once the majority of the population is either vaccinated or had the
virus, the path forward becomes easier.
All projections below for countries and the US states
continue to use the 11 and 28-day periods for forecasting for consistency. When
the peak in daily new cases occurs, if a subsequent day is within 8% of that
peak top, it is identified as the peak in daily new cases day in reference to
the Keystone Model.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily seen on the bar
charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. The daily new cases
bar charts are shown on television news channels with a 7-day moving average
(MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that identifies the trend.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Virus story forward. The Coronavirus Chronology identifies the real-time
hotspots occurring around the world and within the United States. The chronology
serves as a historical document that will be referenced for decades to come by
those that want to experience the entire pandemic as it unfolds in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and others and distributed internationally. This
is Article 85 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information
for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market
participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, psychologists, psychiatrists,
counselors, neurologists, researchers, public officials, news organizations,
traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both
domestically (USA) and internationally.
This eighty-fifth article is published on Tuesday, 8/9/22. The
Coronavirus Chronology series of articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic from
early 2020 into and through 2022; it is the China Virus Bible.
Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. The
information is direct and unapologetic. A chronology can be written no other
way.
All 85 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The
Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want
to remain up to speed with the never-ending COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well.
The countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. The peaks in daily new
cases are shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the
Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curves are
extremely important since it represents the maximum stress on healthcare
workers and the medical systems for that infection wave.
It will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over
to form the bell shape for the troubled nations at the bottom of the list since
they are still experiencing highs and peaks in their daily new cases.
The United States wave 7 is improving peaking with 152K
daily cases on 7/21/22, with another high number on 7/22/22, and the 7/28/22
number at 140,400 cases is a hair above the 8% allowance. Regardless, US wave 7
is diminishing and the active cases may have already peaked and starting to
drop to form the coveted bell shape. The news is good for the US and worldwide.
French Guiana (Seventh Wave)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
7/11/22
New Case Peak Date
7/22/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
7/19/22 New Case Peak Date
7/30/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
7/20/22 New Case Peak Date
7/31/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening and starting to drop give it a
couple more days)
7/24/22 New Case Peak Date
8/4/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/7/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is rolling over give it a couple more days)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/7/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
7/27/22 New Case Peak Date
8/7/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
7/28/22 New Case Peak Date
8/25/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve is flattening and starting to drop give it a few
more days)
7/30/22 New Case Peak Date
8/10/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
8/2/22 New Case Peak Date
8/13/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/2/22 New Case Peak Date
8/13/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/14/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/14/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/3/22 New Case Peak Date
8/14/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/17/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/6/22 New Case Peak Date
8/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/7/22 New Case Peak Date
8/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/8/22 New Case Peak Date
8/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
8/8/22 New Case Peak Date
8/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Nine countries are removed from the bad list since their active cases curves are starting to roll over lower to form the coveted bell shape; Singapore, Belgium, Mexico, Australia, Ecuador, Montenegro, Peru, India and Bolivia. One dozen nations were removed from the bad list 10 days ago so 21 countries rolling their active cases charts over to the downside over the last couple weeks is great news for the world.
South America beat back the omicron waves easier than other
nations probably because of a high level of natural immunity. Chile is
experiencing another pop higher in daily cases but that will likely be
short-lived.
As seen from the countries listed at the bottom of the list,
the trouble spots are Asia, eastern Europe, western Asia and Russia. The daily
cases remain relatively low numbers in the eastern Europe area so the main
covid hotspot is in Asia specifically Japan, South Korea and China.
The BA5 bug loves all those virgin host bodies that were
shielded and hidden from the pandemic during the draconian lockdowns (there is
very little natural antibody protection in these nations and China is hit with
the double-whammy that their vaccines are junk).
The BA5 infection wave moves eastward across Europe into
Russia. Azerbaijan cases are rising so it is added to the bad list. Generally,
the rising cases in eastern Europe and western Asia may not become a big deal
and only manifest as small waves. Many of these nations were hammered hard over
the last 2-1/2 years and the populations likely have high levels of natural
immunity.
Note that the 10 countries at the top of the bad list are
all displaying active cases curves that are flattening and about to roll over.
In other words, in a week or so, the 10 will likely all disappear from the
list. The dozen nations at the bottom of the naughty list, however, must pay
further covid dues.
The US list below identifies the worst states especially at
the bottom of the list. The peak in daily new cases and projections for the
peaks in active cases are provided as per the Keystone Model.
The flattening and roll over of the active cases curve
forming the bell shape (see US active cases chart above) indicates the virus is
being defeated and the caseload on healthcare workers will quickly improve.
Healthcare workers are not under duress with wave 7 like prior waves but the
caseloads are lingering since April so the smart and pretty nurses, like Nurse
Goodbody, deserve a break.
US wave 7 is diminishing so good things are expected in
August. Wave 7 is unlike the prior 6 waves in its flat profile so it would not
be surprising after this lingering near 4-month period for the active cases to
roll over within days of the daily new cases rolling over (rather than the
28-day period that other US waves followed).
August may be the last big month for the COVID-19 pandemic
phase both for the US and the world but Keystone said July was that month in
the last article. The United States is improving and the pace of positivity
should increase in the days ahead.
Alabama
(Seventh Wave)
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve continues higher)
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flattening and trying to roll over)
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date (spike on 8/5/22 but this is likely multiple days)
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over lower give
it a couple more days)
7/14/22
New Case Peak Date
8/11/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat for 6 weeks trying to roll over)
7/15/22
New Case Peak Date
8/12/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat for 5 weeks trying to roll over
lower)
7/15/22
New Case Peak Date
8/12/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and rolling over but give it a
few more days)
7/21/22
New Case Peak Date
8/18/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and wanting to roll over)
7/26/22
New Case Peak Date
8/23/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but give it a few days)
7/26/22
New Case Peak Date
8/23/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and rolling over but give it a
couple more days)
7/26/22
New Case Peak Date
8/23/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
7/27/22
New Case Peak Date
8/24/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten)
7/27/22
New Case Peak Date
8/24/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve jumps higher but reverses lower give it
a few days)
7/27/22
New Case Peak Date
8/24/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and rolling over)
7/27/22
New Case Peak Date
8/24/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over lower)
7/27/22
New Case Peak Date
8/24/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but give it a couple
days)
7/28/22
New Case Peak Date
8/25/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
7/29/22
New Case Peak Date
8/26/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat trying to roll over)
7/29/22 New Case Peak Date
8/26/22 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(curve is trying to flatten)
7/29/22
New Case Peak Date
8/26/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve heads higher)
8/1/22
New Case Peak Date
8/29/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date(curve trying to flatten)
6/21/22
New Case Peak Date (8/2/22 is alternate peak since 6/21/22 may be multiple
days)
8/30/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten)
8/3/22
New Case Peak Date
8/31/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
8/3/22
New Case Peak Date
8/31/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but give it a couple
days)
8/3/22
New Case Peak Date
8/31/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten)
8/3/22
New Case Peak Date (data stopped)
8/31/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is trying to flatten but data is
lagging)
8/4/22
New Case Peak Date
9/1/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/5/22
New Case Peak Date
9/2/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
There are 27 states on the bad list above. Seven states were removed from the list since their active cases chats have rolled over including Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Montana, New York and Missouri. Interesting stuff. Some southern states are beating back BA5 and succeeding but others like Georgia and Kentucky struggle.
Arizona is off the list so the infections exacerbated by the
ongoing border crisis may be subsiding. This makes sense since the cases in
Guatemala and Mexico have been working lower for the last month. New York is
working through its double-hump with BA5 cases decreasing.
The great thing about the bad list is the many active cases
curves that are flat and starting to roll over. Many states above will fall off
the bad list in the coming days like pine needles falling from a Christmas tree
that has not been watered.
Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Delaware,
Virginia and Wisconsin remain challenged and need to stay focused on the job at
hand as US wave 7 subsides.
The United States is positioned well to make dramatic
improvements in beating-down wave 7 in the days and couple weeks ahead just in
time for the par-tay’s on Labor Day (9/5/22). Keystone already has plans to
attend a shindig on 9/3/22 that will be a fantastic blowout.
The wave 7 chart above shows that the spring and summer
holidays did not create any appreciable gain in new cases only subtle bumps so
the same or less would be expected for the upcoming party time from 9/1/22
through 9/5/22.
The CDC Community Transmission map displays a lot of yellow
and orange but the data is a week old. The Worldometer data is more current so
the bad state list above and descriptions are more up to date and applicable
than the CDC map.
The CDC says 42% of the US is in a high-risk transmission
zone (orange) where it is recommended to wear masks indoors. 39% of the country
is in a medium-risk county and 19% are in a low-risk county. Thus, 81% of the
US counties are at medium or high risk. This is overblown or more correctly,
the map is providing guidance for something that happened a week or two ago.
In a week or two, a lot more green and yellow will appear on
the map with the orange diminishing. As per the bad list above, 27 states
remain challenged but 17 of them will be in great shape in the coming days.
Thus, only 54% of the US is challenged (comparable to medium and high risk) and
in about a week’s time, only about 20% of the United States will be challenged.
You can see the importance of having the most up to date
real-time data and information possible. The CDC Community Transmission map is
an excellent tool but it has to be updated faster with no more than a 2-day
lag. Get to it. Chop, chop.
US hospital admissions are dropping a beautiful sight since
it leads the US hospitalizations that are flat and starting to develop a downward
bias at 37K cases per day. It is good news.
The new Novavax vaccine is not gaining traction with the
public or healthcare professionals. Most folks probably still do not know it is
available. NVAX stock crashes -35%.
The CDC is hosting an international conference on infectious
diseases from Sunday through tomorrow. Topics
at the conference include a discussion of covid screening in schools. Speakers
include Director Walensky that plans to talk about masks. Do you think she will
highlight the studies that indicate masks are only of marginal value in
preventing infection, at best, but at the same time inflict serious mental,
emotional and learning issues on the wearers including depression? Probably
not.
Walensky will tell you that masks are the greatest thing
since sliced bread as people move the masks aside to pick their noses, scratch
an itch, or sneak a full breath. Kids wear the masks on their ears and use them
as a handkerchief when they sneeze. Adults wear the masks around their mouth
and not the nose which is the orifice that the virus prefers. It is hard to
incorporate all these variables into mask studies.
President Biden went immediately maskless and started directly
interacting with people the minute he tested negative for the second time on
Sunday morning. Same-o yesterday in Kentucky the president was in close
quarters with folks and no one was wearing masks. Same-o today when Biden talks
from the podium about the new chips (semiconductors) bill so masks must be
passe, like the heroin that is so passe that the Dandy Warhols sing about.
Biden looks good during his short speech today so he must
have guzzled five cups of coffee before walking to the podium or perhaps Dr
O’Connor provided a little help. Biden coughs during the speech so that has not
gone away. He is hurried in his speaking, barely giving himself time to sip
water quickly, then talking, and coughing again. He appears animated. You want
to tell him to relax and take a couple breaths. There is phlegm with his cough
but obviously you cannot spit that out in front of everyone so he swallows it.
If you are coughing up throat drainage or lung congestion,
spit that garbage out, expel it from your body. Each morning you should stand
with hands in the air and then bend at the hips where the hands then touch the
floor. During the down move breathe out and let the lungs clear from any dust,
smoke or other nasties sitting down in the cilia. Cough the stuff up and spit
it out to keep your lungs clear and healthy.
The US airline nightmare continues. Flights delayed or
cancelled. Unhappy passengers. Thin staffs. Hey *sshole airlines, how’s that
vaccine mandate garbage working out? The airlines forced experienced pilots,
crews, mechanics and airport workers into retirement over the mRNA jabs. Other
airline employees changed professions since they did not want to kneel before
their airline bosses and receive the healthcare that idiot managers decree for
their bodies.
The airline employees that did not want to lose their jobs instead
decided to swallow their pride, and lose their self-respect, and kneel in front
of the boss to receive the COVID-19 vaccines. Some folks may like to be
submissive but most men do not. Thus, every time the airline gets busy now
especially around holiday weekends, that is a good time to screw the boss and
call in sick. Payback’s a bitch.
Even funnier, the boss will put up with it because they are
short on staff. How do you like licking the employees’ arse instead of the
other way around bossy? The airlines turned loyal employees into workers that
hate their jobs and will take any opportunity to screw the company since the
CEO’s forced shots down their throats. This is the way the world works Sonny
and Girly.
The funniest part of it all is that the vaccines are not
even vaccines. The multiple jabs are COVID-19 death prevention shots since
infection and transmission can still occur. In addition, most of the shots wear
off in 5 or 6 months so folks stuck like pincushions with mRNA, but have not
had a booster or booster-booster shot since February, are likely no better
protected than the unvaccinated.
The pandemic is a crazy ride. Dr’s Fauci and Jha, and other medical
talking heads, keep telling folks to get a shot now if you have not had one
this year for the reasons stated. The US vaccination rate languishes at about
270K shots per day. Americans have moved on from the pandemic since there are too
many other problems and trouble to worry about as Ray sings.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world reports 599K daily new cases for Monday a sub 600K number and the 7-day MA trend line is at 798K cases per day a sub 800K number coming down nicely. Daily China Flu cases will drop sharply as Japan, South Korea and the US beat down their current infection waves. The global COVID-19 death rate remains stuck at 2K bodies per day. Japan reports 173K daily new cases yesterday with the 7-day MA at 214K cases per day. It is ugly but a positive aspect is that the rate of increase in cases is slowing so a top in daily cases may be at hand. Japan's peak is 253K daily cases last Friday, 8/5/22, so this Friday's cases are key and must be below 253K to establish a downtrend. This outcome is likely. Boom. South Korea reports 150K daily new cases yesterday a spike higher and the most for the current wave. This is not good. The 7-day MA is going parabolic at 108K cases per day so South Korea is in the covid pickle barrel. Indonesia reports 6.3K cases yesterday teasing highs over the last couple weeks that compare back to March. Poland reports 6K cases yesterday a new high for the current wave and not seen since March. Georgia and Azerbaijan are dealing with new infection waves.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 5:30 AM EST: China's cities remain in various stages of lockdowns with mass testing ongoing each day for millions of Chinese folks. It is getting old. The Chinese are complaining that nowhere is safe anymore. Anywhere they travel domestically, they understand that they may end up getting stuck there for a couple weeks if someone tests positive for China Virus. This is no way to live. The mess on the tourist island of Hainan, and at Sanya specifically, continues with 80K people in lockdown. Domestic travel takes a big hit in China which will hurt the economy. Dirtbag Dictator Xi shows force against the independent nation of Taiwan with military drills to distract the domestic audience away from his zero-covid mess and the slow-motion housing and banking crisis.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports only 46K daily new cases for Monday a wonderful sight. The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is down to 79K cases per day a sub 80K number. The signs and signals continue stacking up for a positive end to US wave 7. Kentucky continues reporting elevated cases the folks are screwed by the floods. They are trying to help each other through the disaster as well as people from other states so folks are in close quarters with lots of physical contact. Shelters and cooling centers are well occupied. China Virus takes advantage of the situation searching for more host bodies. Kentuckians are resilient people that will beat back covid and rebuild after the floods. The United States is in good shape to defeat wave 7 but must remain vigilant for a few more days to make sure the cases continue falling. Another minor worry may be kids returning to school but Americans are set up for a happy late summer and early Fall with wave 7 in the tank but this will also be when Lord Fauci, the CDC, Sleepy Joe and the Whitehouse will be talking about booster shots. Oy vey. The new booster-booster-booster (5th shot), or booster-booster for others (4th shot), may be fighting the last war. The boosters are supposedly better for fighting omicron strains but will that matter in the Fall and winter? A new bug may be at play, or not much at all. Will the vaccine proponents be hawking a combination covid/seasonal flu shot? The alchemists are working overtime in the laboratories mixing up the witches brews. Now where is that eye of newt?
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 8/10/22, at 7:30 AM EST: The CDC reports that the BA46 subvariant increases from 4% to under 5% of the new COVID-19 cases in the US over the last week a modest, and not exponential rise, at least so far. Dr Eric Topol is not concerned about BA46 but quickly says it must be closely monitored going forward.
