Thursday, February 6, 2025

XLC Communications Services ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; AI Orgy Petering Out



Most sectors have already come off their tops but not XLC. Communication Services are off to the races for the last couple years riding the AI orgy to glory. Well, all good things come to an end. The neggie d (red lines) says XLC is about to have a Led Zeppelin Communication Breakdown.

XLC holds META, GOOGL, GOOG, NFLX, T, TMUS, TTWO, DIS, VZ, CHTR, etc...., it is an artificial intelligence parade. The happy AI group march forward for 2 years with people clapping and applauding, throwing money at them, but now the parade route is about to change. XLC and its merry holdings will now march through the seedy part of town, past the drug addicts, and behind the horses and elephants that are making brown deposits on the asphalt every few feet.

There are nothing but negatives on that chart. Price makes the higher high but the red lines highlight the negative divergence across all indicators; she should stall, run out of gas, and begin collapsing at any time on the weekly basis. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Let us be generous and call it a rising wedge pattern, that is bearish, although there should be more price touches to the trend lines to make the wedge more legit.

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a trip to the middle band at 96 and rising, and the lower band at 88 and rising, are on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (price above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is needed.

The Aroon green and red lines show that both XLC bulls and bears believe that price will go up forever. Of course, it will not. The Aroon signals the uber bullishness and rampant complacency. Joe Sixpack is taking an entire paycheck and buying NVDA because the guy on television said to buy it and forget about it. Comically, his buddy, Timmy Trader, told him to be diversified and invest one-half in NVDA and the other half in PLTR.

The blue circle shows a big buying volume week 2 weeks ago but it ws not as robust as the buying volumes last year. If XLC wanted to rock 'n roll higher all night long, the volume should be higher. As the analysts pimp the AI story on television and the internet, they are selling their shares to Edna Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka. The chart forecasts bad things ahead on the weekly basis; a multi-week pullback is set to begin. Do not rule out a move to 104-105 to satisfy the top band but she should peak-out in the days ahead and begin a selloff.

Let us see, taking a look at the daily chart to see where the top may be at, wow, that is in neggie d as well. The Thursday trading session is underway and XLC is at 102.36 perhaps already receiving the neggie d spankdown on the daily and weekly bases. She should be cooked here and interestingly, the upper shadows for the last two price candlesticks are a Tweezer Top, if they hold. They should have longer shadows but that is close enough for government work.

Keystone is not holding XLC long or short right now but obviously short is the play going forward. That means many, or most, maybe all, of the tickers that XLC holds, will head south as well. A crowd favorite. Headin' down south, to the land of the pine,....  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross



The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is a very useful VST (very short-term) stock market signal. The year thus far is a bunch of choppy whipsaw slop but the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6000 is the bull/bear line in the sand.

Bulls win big if the SPX remains above 6K; stocks will rally higher. Bears win big if the SPX slips below 6K; stocks will collapse. The SPX begins at 6038 and look at that, S&P futures are down -38. It appears the bulls and bears both know what the game is today. Two enter the cage match today but only one will exit. SPX 6000 is the judge and jury. Reba steams-up the courtroom. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/6/25, at 2:57 AM EST: The SPX rallies to 6061 yesterday as the VIX drops to 15.77. The dance continues.

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Long-Term Multi-Month and Multi-Year Stock Market Top At Hand



It is time for some homework. You are assigned to watch that purple circle on the chart to see if the long-term top for the US stock market is occurring now, in real-time, or, will occur a month or so from now (March). Say what? Down? Everybody, and his brother, on Wall Street says stocks are bang, going to the moon, Alice, this year with 7K and higher popular targets for the SPX. You will have to decide who is Smokin' something.

This is bigtime stuff. If you are under 40 years old and a novice trader, you should get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Keystone called the top to begin 2022; you can scroll back to study those charts. The red lines show the negative divergence in play across all indicators so calling the top on the monthly basis was easy. At the time, the MACD line was playing games, as it typically does since it is usually the last indicator to go neggie d, and only committed to the downside by a hair. Ditto the money flow.

The expectation would be that price has no reason to come back up again on the monthly basis and the S&P 500 was a sick pup for all of 2022. However, the money was flowing like water on Wall Street and Main Street. The Federal Reserve prints money like madmen to protect America's wealthy class and lowers rates, Congress is throwing money to Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic, then the arrogant ignorance, er, artificial intelligence (AI) orgy kicks into gear, and do not forget the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election with King Donnie promising a chicken in every pot. Add it all together and you have an out of control upside stock market so obscene it would make Caligula blush.

You are witnessing the piggish end to the crony capitalism system that is now spitting-up blood. It is a shame that capitalism does not exist but the power of human greed knows no bounds.

Anyhoo, the SPX in 2025 prints a matching price high for four consecutive months. Since price is at a matching or higher high, the chart indicators can be reviewed for neggie d.

All the indicators are in negative divergence calling for a top in the stock market on a monthly basis, except for the stubborn MACD line that remains long and strong, by a hair. It takes a magnifying glass but the MACD, already in nosebleed territory, sneaks up a tiny nano-length. That is your homework; the purple circle. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes.

The entire balance of the US stock market depends on that purple circle. Even if the MACD remains long and strong, it only delays the top by a month or two for a jog move to occur (down-up) to then position the MACD with neggie d (downward-sloping). So the end is nigh. The MACD is also outrageously high and the only direction to go is down going forward.

The current task is figuring out where the exact top is at. Scroll back to the SPX weekly chart where Keystone explained that top and it is rolling over in the weekly time frame currently. Thus, she either falls down the rabbit hole now and heads lower for many months even a couple years or more, or, she wants to hang-on for a few more weeks before topping-out and then falling down the rabbit hole for many months even a couple years or more.

The purple circle tells you which one will occur. It is February, don't forget to pronounce the r when you say it, so the new monthly candlestick is only 2 days old. There is lots of trading remaining this month. If the SPX collapses from here, as the uber bullish sentiment and rampant complacency suggest, watch the MACD line because it is evolving with price. If the SPX sells off, the MACD line is going to drop on the end and it will be neggie d this month. Hence, the top is now and a multi-month and multi-year downturn is starting in real-time.

If at the end of this month, 2/28/25 is a Friday, the MACD line is still sloping a hair higher like now, stocks will drop for a month, but then regain their footing and come up for another higher high in price in March. At that price high, the MACD will likely be neggie d, joining all the other indicators, so March would be the multi-month and multi-year top instead of right now in real-time.

So now you know what to watch to call the long-term top after you pick yourself up from the carpet trying to grasp the thought that the money you see in your brokerage account today, will only be half that amount in a year or two. Plan accordingly.

Keystone calls May 2015 the last legitimate top in the US stock market. Everything above 2015 is fluff and phony-baloney garbage and trash. It is a representation of the crony capitalism bloat that is unmanageable and unfixable. We all are simply going to watch it implode going forward.

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Price will correct to the 200-month MA at some point forward so do not be surprised in a year or two to see the SPX down in the 2,000-3,500 range. That will get everyone's attention. That is where the SPX should have stayed for the last few years if the country was not hopelessly corrupt, addicted to easy money, and drowning in the unforgiving waters of rigged crony capitalism.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every stock market bull believes that the stock market will go up forever. Comically, the Aroon red line indicates that every single stock market bear also thinks that the stock market will go up forever. Pause for laughter. This uber bullish behavior is occurring with bitcoin, also. Even funnier, every single bear believes stocks will go up forever but only 96% of the bulls think stocks will go up forever. That is priceless and proves how every single trader is on the bull side of the boat believing that stocks will go up forever so it is time to party like its 1999.

Price violated the upper band so a trip back to the middle band at 5226 and rising sharply, and the lower band at 4047 and rising sharply, are on the table going forward. All of you folks long the market have to make big decisions now and do it while you can. Daylight's Fading. It will be fun watching raw human emotion play out over the coming months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, February 2, 2025

VIX Volatility Daily Chart



Volatility dictated the ebbs and flows in Friday trading. The Keybot the Quant algo is long but champing at the bit to go short and identifies VIX 16.85 as the key metric currently impacting stock market prices.

If VIX pops above 16.85, stocks will sell off. If VIX sustains above 16.85, it will be headed for 20 and higher as stocks collapse.

If VIX remains below 16.85, the stock market party will continue for a day or few. Party TownOn Friday as the VIX popped above 16.85, stocks were dropping like rocks. The bulls fought back and in the final minutes, the Fed's jackboot was held on the neck of Uncle Vix making sure the stock market ended happy before the weekend.

King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will impact stocks on Monday. Canada retaliates but no one is afraid of baby Trudeau, the wannabe tyrant that likes to dress up in blackface on weekends. Mexico is trying to play it cool. The communists are quiet since the Chinese New Year's holiday continues. It is the Year of the Snake for the lying, slithering communists (the 90 million CCP dirtbags; not the 1.4 billion Chinese folks that must live under CCP rule). Prima donna Donnie loves the drama because that gives him an excuse to show his orange head on camera every 10 minutes.

Today is Groundhog Day here in scenic southwestern Pennsylvania; the Laurel Highlands. Punxsutawney Phil, the original and only true animal weather prognosticator, will tell everyone if winter continues for another 6 weeks (he sees his shadow), or, spring is around the corner (he does not see his shadow). There will be plenty of live feeds available on the internet as the time draws near. Phill will come out of his stump home and make his judgement on the weather at about 7 AM EST as the sun rises in these parts. Of course, most people, the non-skiers and non-skaters that sit inside instead of enjoying winter sports, want an early spring and warmer weather, so they are hoping that Punxsy Phil will not see his shadow.

Punxsy Vix will ditch the stock market if he sees 16.85 and higher but the fun times continue in the stock market if he sees 16.85 and lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:14 PM EST: Punxsutawney Phil disappointed many people today because his shadow he did see, so 6 more weeks of winter it will be! Skiers, skaters, hockey players and snow-tubers rejoice with glee. Next up is Punxsy Vix. What will he see beginning at 3 AM EST?

Note Added 6:04 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:01 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Note Added Thursday, 2/6/25, at 2:59 AM EST: The SPX rallies to 6061 yesterday as the VIX drops to 15.77. The tariffs are more bark than bite. Traders await the US Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow morning.

Friday, January 31, 2025

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Euphoric Bullishness, Fearlessness and Hubris Signals Significant Stock Market Top



Take advantage of the melt-up to ditch any remaining longs. The hubris in the stock market and rampant fearlessness must be disciplined. What do you think? A Black Monday? Black Tuesday? The SPX all-time record high is 6128 and price today tags the 6116 palindrome forming a double-top. Fun times. Eve of Destruction.

If you do not get out of the stock market, you deserve everything that is about to happen to you. Do not wear your favorite shirt, because you are about to lose it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Afternoon, 1/31/25, at 3:42 PM EST: Did you get out? Let the blood and carnage begin on Wall and Broad. The SPX peaks at the HOD at 6121 almost up to the all-time high at 6128, and then falls on its sword down to 6031 a 90-point intraday collapse. Look at the rats scurry. There is no place to hide now. It is time to receive your head on a platter. Stocks should drop a long way from here. Monday will depend on the Donnie tariffs against Mexico, Canada and communist China. Pachelbel's Canon in D is fantastic as the knives are out and the harvesting begins. It is time to pay for your greed.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/2/25, at 6:05 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:03 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Thursday, January 30, 2025

Gut Reaction of Markets when Donnie Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico and Canada









It is interesting to see the gut reaction of financial instruments when King Donnie Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada that may or may not include oil and may or may not occur depending on how the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown wakes-up tomorrow morning. Trump had committed to making a decision on the tariffs by Saturday, 2/1/25, so the announcement at 3:30 PM EST-ish today was somewhat expected. Markets reacted instantly.

The reaction to Donnie's proclamation was swift and sharp. The US dollar index spikes higher and the euro (EURUSD) collapses lower. The SPX, that is the S&P 500, the United States stock market, falls down the rabbit hole on Donnie's words. Ditto the NDX that is the high flying tech stocks in America, the Nazzy 100. They fell off a cliff and AI (artificial intelligence not arrogant ignorance) darling PLTR also gave up the ghost.

The DeepSeek AI model has Silicon Valley in a tizzy. Company stores report a drop in fleece vest sales. Did you know that India is working on an AI model that can compete with DeepSeek? Yes, they plan on calling it DeepSikh. Rim shot. A little bit of AI humor. Very little.

On the tariff news, yields pop higher and the TBT ETF moves higher in the direction of yields. The TLT ETF moves lower as yields and the TBT popped higher. The 2-year yield popped from 4.19% to 4.21%. The 10-year yield popped from 4.51% to 4.53%. Bitcoin collapses lower on the tariff news.

The orange-headed carnie barker slaps Mexico and Canada in the face with a white glove. What will happen next? Did you see the other day, that Donnie's head looked more pinkish than the usual orange, like a pink grapefruit? He is orange head not pink grapefruit head.

Summing up, the gut reaction when Donnie Trump imposed tariffs on Western-friendly countries, results in the dollar spiking higher, euro collapsing lower, stocks including AI darlings and the major indexes collapsing lower, Treasury note and bond yields higher (notes and bonds sell off), TBT moves higher, TLT moves lower, and bitcoin moves lower. Gold fell on the higher dollar but quickly recovered and chopped sideways during the tariff chaos.

Shortening things, when Mister Tariff, Donnie Trump, imposes tariffs, the following gut reaction occurs; US dollar up, euro down, stocks down, Treasury yields higher, bitcoin lower. Note that the dollar and bitcoin moved opposite on the news. Also, yields nudged higher a touch so notes and bonds were sold off, and stocks were sold off, on the tariff news. Traders and investors were gittin' outta Dodge on all fronts, selling everything, stocks, bonds and bitcoin, since Donnie, the tariff bull in the China shop, is starting to bump around and knock things off the shelves. Sell first and ask questions later. Pretty Little Lie. Good ole boys sitting around playing the Martin's that are made by hand in good ole Pennsylvania. It beats the hell out of working. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Multi-Year Complacency and Fearlessness Mark Substantial Stock Market Top


She's gonna blow! Hit the deck! It is fantastic watching the giddy human crowd behavior as the stock market prints a substantial top. The multi-year low put/call ratio, dipping to 0.72 verifying the previous sub 0.70 number, is signaling rampant complacency and fearlessness identifying a substantial top in the stock market. One of those "Black _____" days of the week may be ahead (Black Tuesday, Black Friday, etc...). Black Friday has a nice ring to it.

The bears all left town penniless, and now live on the other side of the tracks, on Skid Row. The bulls are selling shares to other bulls and then buying them back after they are even more bulled-up. It is comical behavior. Human greed is the most dominant force.

Traders are tripping over each other to buy any stock with a heartbeat. Run for your life before you get run over especially novice traders since you are about to get your lunch eaten if long the market. The drop in the SPX, that should begin any day forward, would be expected to shed from 200 to 800 points so it is going to be a lot of fun.

When the festivities begin, the VIX will pop above 16.87 and then above 20 and higher. If you are long the stock market, you need to be very afraid right now. You are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer and do not realize your shoelace is untied. Don't Go Back to Rockville. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Double-Top; Upper Band Violation



Bitcoin enthusiasts are about to have a religious experience. Bitcoin is cooked. Crispy-fried. Look at the chart. Are you blind? That is universal neggie d which will create a spankdown and the start of a multi-week pullback.

Bitcoin placed a record high at 108369 on 12/17/24 and then managed a higher all-time record high at 109340 on 1/20/25. Party time. Everyone is waving around bitcoin with puffed chests. However, now is the time to sell as the chart shows. Price may want to print a closing price at 109K+ in the days ahead but it will likely not change the chart indicators. If the MACD manages to develop a bit of buoyancy again, it would likely only delay the top by a week or two.

The negative divergence is ominous. Price also violated the upper standard deviation band so a move to the middle band at 86K, and rising, is on the table, and also the lower band at 55K and rising sharply. Bitcoin is printing a double-top, or M-Top.

The Aroon green line shows that 96% of the bulls believe bitcoin will go up forever; call it 100%. At the same time, the Aroon red line shows that every bitcoin bear also believes that bitcoin will go up forever. That is hilarious. Even better, the bears are universally convinced that bitcoin will go up forever while the bulls are only 96% convinced. The bitcoin bears believe that the price will go up more than the bitcoin bulls. That is funny stuff obviously telling you that a period of weakness on the weekly basis is ahead.

If you bring up the monthly chart, the MACD remains long and strong with the other indicators neggie d. Thus, bitcoin is topping-out now and will receive a smackdown and develop a weekly downtrend for a few weeks but then it will bottom (look for positive divergence in the future) and come back up for a higher high on the monthly basis.

The way that may play out is down now into mid to late February, then rally again all the way back up perhaps to 120K-130K in March, and that will likely do it for bitcoin on the LT monthly basis. The monthly chart would then be topped-out with neggie d signaling that bitcoin is headed for a long, long, multi-month trip south starting in March/April probably through year-end. For now, bitcoin is cooked on the weekly basis. Simply watch the charts and the neggie d develop. Once she drops, you can call the bottom on the weekly basis in February when positive divergence develops on the weekly chart above.

There is huge support in that 60K-72K range so that would be downside support if the middle band support fails. Keystone is not holding bitcoin long or short or any of the derivatives. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25: Bitcoin 99.6K.

Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25, at 5:19 PM EST: Bitcoin is 97.5K, no, check that, 97.2K. Bitcoin is faceplanting and biting the dust, which never tastes good. King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China are resulting in retaliation spooking global markets sending bitcoin south. The Trump trade war begins.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:01 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Watch the Trap-Door at the 50-Wk MA at 967



Utilities tease another failure yesterday but no one knows since they do not know what to watch. The UTIL 50-week MA at 967 is a key support level not only for utes but for the entire stock market. The utilities are already hinting at trouble ahead for stocks because UTIL is in a weekly down trend remaining below the closing price from 15 weeks ago (thin blue line).

The 50-week MA is a trap-door for the US stock market. Here is a link to the previous UTIL chart from a couple weeks ago for further study. If UTIL fails at 967, yesterday price fell to 968 before recovering, the SPX would be expected to dump 20 to 40 points within an hour later, and the stock market would go into a crash profile going forward through the intermediate term. Ominous stuff. And it all depends on the trap-door at UTIL 967. If the trap-door opens, trouble and Strange Days will find you. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

USD US Dollar Weekly Chart; Long-Term Sideways Channel thru 101-106; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation



Everyone is watching the US dollar index these days, the USD, or DXY, dixie, as it catapults to the moon after the late September 2024 low launching from a 99-handle to 110. Traders have been trying to call the top in the greenback and short it for the last couple months; the trading floor is strewn with their bodies.

Two weeks ago, the dollar prints a Tweezer Top. The dollar daily chart was in full negative divergence with its chart so the top call was easy on 1/13/25 for the daily time frame and the buck receives the neggie d spankdown. The negativity on the daily conspires with the neggie d above on the weekly for all the indicators except for the MACD. Therein lies the rub.

For a complete confirmation of the dollar short, the MACD line should have rolled over but instead it remains long and strong as price prints the matching top. The MACD has more fuel in the tank to bring price higher which questions the sharp down move in the green back last week.

If the MACD above would be neggie d (sloping downward as price makes the new high like the other indicators), it would mark a multi-week top for the dollar. This may still be the path ahead, however, if the MACD has anything to say about it over the next week or two, it wants price to come back up again on the weekly basis.

Price violated the upper band so a move back to the middle band at 105 is on the table. The middle band, that is also the 20 MA, ramps higher so price, the upper sideways channel S/R lines, and the rising middle band may all converge on 106.00-106.25. That would be the logical place for the bounce if she wants to come back up using the MACD as the remaining fuel.

The fractal from 2022 (blue box) may provide insight. The dollar broke higher, came back for the back kiss to those green lines, then rallied higher, then paused again (orange circle), this is where the current price behavior is at, and then the dollar placed a big 2-week spike higher to then top-out during the subsequent 3 weeks due to the negative divergence. Like now, in 2022, the dollar took the pause when the indicators were all negatively diverged except for the MACD line. With the final thrust higher, that took about 5 more weeks to play out, the MACD joined the other indicators in signaling neggie d, and the top was in, and bloop, down the dollar went to end 2022.

It gets more interesting. If the move down currently in the dollar is a fake-out, and she needs one more matching or higher price high before the top in the dollar can be called on the weekly basis, there may be Hell to pay in the stock market.

The US stock market is on the edge of a cliff right now with pebbles and small rocks falling off the side of the trail dropping hundreds of feet to the jagged rocks below. The stock markets wobbly knees keep walking this shaky path wondering when the earth will give-way. The multi-year lows in the put/call ratios verifies the euphoric bullish optimism and rampant complacency and fearlessness in the US stock market. Traders need to be taught a lesson like Cool Hand Luke. 'That's the way traders want it, so that's the way they'll git it'.

The SPX charts are also set-up or setting-up with neggie d so all the chess pieces are aligned for a potential significant negative stock market event in the days ahead. If the dollar recovers in the days ahead, and through the following week, running higher like a banshee, the stock market will likely collapse. How cool would it be to see it crash?

In the blue fractal above, when the dollar made its last move higher, that is the same time that equities were stumbling lower. 2022 was a lousy year for the stock market. It was capped off by the final surge higher in the dollar during August 2022 through October 2022, and of course the key bottom for the US stock market occurred right there at October 2022 when the dollar started to collapse from its top. For that 9-week drop in the stock market in 2022, as the dollar made its final flourish higher, the SPX puked 833 points. Let's see... give me that envelope Sonny; the back-of-the-envelope calculation, using the all-time record high for the SPX at 6128.18 on Friday, 1/24/25, would be 6128 minus 833 or 5295. A 52-handle on the SPX would get everyone's attention (-14% crash).

Alas, on the other hand of the two-handed trader, the positive outcome may occur (for stocks) where the dollar continues retreating tagging the middle band and falling below the sideways trend lines to once again favor that long-term sideways channel going forward. Simply watch the chart to see how it plays out. Once it begins going in a specific direction, you will know what is going to happen.

Keystone is not playing the dollar or other currencies long or short currently. The potential play above would be to not play the dollar now and instead wait for a week or two for confirmation to the downside, where shorts can be brought on, or, the reversal and jump higher as stocks collapse, where you can then wait for the dollar to officially top-out with neggie d on the MACD as explained above, and then play the dollar short from there for a multi-week slide lower. It will be fun to watch since the dollar direction likely dictates the direction (inverse) for the US stock market.

Of course, the timing of all this drama is on target with the FOMC two-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, 1/28/25 and 1/29/25. Powell is at the cleaners this morning asking the clerk if they can get the jelly stain off of his necktie from the free buffet at the last meeting. Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High on Wednesday afternoon and tell traders how to trade. That is likely the pivot point that sends one of the two scenarios above in full motion forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 7:43 PM EST: S&P futures are down -40 points. That is interesting. The dollar is stronger by a hair. USD 107.58. Dollar up, futures down. Bitcoin 101.5K. 

Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/26/25, at 8:01 PM EST: S&P futures are down -50 points

Note Added Monday Morning, 1/27/25, at 5:50 AM EST: Dollar moves above and below the flat line overnight now down a hair to 107.29. S&P futures are down at session lows crashing -157 points or -2.6%. The Nazzy futures are off -4.6%. Don't you love the smell of napalm in the morning? Bring in the airships boys, pull your units back sergeants, time to light it up like a birthday cake. Here they come. The AI stocks are collapsing because a DeepSeek outfit in China has produced AI results with technology currently available. Just think of all the billions spent (wasted?), and the commitments to the power industry even nuclear to support AI, and a guy in his basement may have a better solution. It is hilarious. NVDA -13%. META -5%. MSFT -7%. AVGO -13%. PLTR -10%. The Trump tariff threat to Colombia, that has been reversed overnight, also has markets reeling. The VIX pops above 20 to 20.63. The 10-year yield drops -11 bips to 4.51% as traders seek the perceived safety of notes and bonds (bond prices run higher on the demand so yields collapse lower). Remember, don't panic! Don't panic!!.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/28/25, at 5:34 AM EST: USD 107.88. The SPX loses 89 points yesterday, -1.5%, to 6012. The Nazzy Comp and Nazzy 100 both collapse -3.%.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 1/30/25, at 7:06 AM EST: USD 108.09. The Fed decision and press conference was yesterday. The buck is buoyant. 10-year yield 4.49%.

Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25: USD is at 108.22 printing a high on Friday at 108.40 testing the 20-day MA overhead resistance at ....... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer ...... 108.40. This is obviously a key level. If the greenback pops above 108.40, she will run strongly higher. Dollar bears must prevent 108.40 with all their might.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:06 AM EST: S&P futures are down -90 points with the VIX up to near 20. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle.