By K E Stone (Keystone)
The China Flu has sickened over 111 million people worldwide
killing 2.5 million global citizens. 86.1 million earthlings have recovered
from coronavirus. 78% of the people that become infected with COVID-19 recover
in a reasonable time frame; this number improves by four percentage-points over
the last 11 days. Almost 4 out of every 5 people that contract covid around the
world recover. 1 in 5 people have lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or die.
2.3% of the people that are infected with covid around the
world die which is a slight increase from 11 days ago. 1 in every 46 people on
earth that are infected with the China Flu will die. 1.5% of the world’s population of 7.67
billion people has been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 69 people.
Coronavirus was released by the CCP (China’s Communist
Party), either intentionally or accidentally, from one of the two secret
bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan, China (the press and WHO only visit the one
lab; the commies will deny the existence of the second lab). The dirtbag
communists have developed a very effective virus that has brought the world to
its knees; humans kneel in front of Xi. Once the world defeats the pandemic,
without help from an obstinate China, nations will need to form an alliance and
pay dirtbag Dictator Xi a visit and discuss his bioterrorism aspirations.
In the United States, over 28.6 million people are infected
with covid. Nearly 508K are dead. OVER 500K AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID-19 as
per the Worldometer data. The Johns-Hopkins data is above 493K dead and will
likely cross 500K in 3 or 4 days which will be Monday or Tuesday, perhaps
sooner. Ohio just discovered 4K dead in their data that was not reported
nationally so J-H is likely in the process of incorporating that stack of dead
bodies. The data sets complement one another nicely with the J-H data following
the Worldometer data by a few days.
18.8 million Americans have recovered from covid. 66% of US
citizens that become infected with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame;
this number improves by 3 percentage-points over the last 11 days. 2 out of
every 3 people that contract covid in America recover which is not as good as
the world’s average. This is likely in part due to the obesity problem in
America which leads to heart and lung issues, and diseases such as diabetes,
that place the person at a disadvantage once they catch the virus. 1 in 3
Americans have lingering effects from the Wuhan Flu, or die.
1.8% of Americans that are infected with covid die which is
a slight increase from 11 days ago. 1 in every 56 US citizens that are infected
with the China Flu will die. The death rate in the US is below the world’s
average. 8.666% of the American population of 330 million people have been
infected with covid. 1 in every 12 Americans have been stricken with
coronavirus a terrible number.
There are six nations with worse total cases per one million
population but the United States is the 900-pound dead gorilla laying on the
living room sofa. Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands,
UK and France, Israel and Bahrain, Georgia and Czechia, and Panama are the
nations in this terrible highly-infected club. The worst-infected nations on
earth are the US, eastern and western European countries, the Middle East and
Central America.
The data is improving and the good news continues that was
highlighted in the last article. Vaccine production and application rates are
increasing. The world is recovering. The big worry remains the three major
variants; the UK strain B117, the South Africa strain B1351 and the Brazil
strain B11248 or P1. The vaccines are effective against the UK strain but
less-so for the South Africa strain which is also a more deadly strain.
The UK strain is the most prominent on American soil
currently but the DNA sequencing tests required to identify the outbreak remain
woefully inadequate. Medical professionals are working 24/7 to expand the
genomic surveillance so the variants can be properly traced and tracked within
the United States.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple approach to predicting when the
active cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower which represents
the maximum stress on the medical system and healthcare workers followed by better
days ahead.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Japan and South Korea are in this group. Also New
Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you identify
the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
For the US daily new cases chart above, the peak in new
cases is easily seen as 1/8/21 with 308K cases. Adding 28 days since the US is
a Western nation, is a forecast of 2/5/21 for the peak in the US active cases
curve. The 7-day MA on the daily new cases chart is sloping lower for 5 weeks
which is fantastic news and paints a rosy future. The move from 308K daily
cases to 78K daily cases is a 75% decrease in daily new cases in only 5 weeks.
Halleluiah! is what Leonard Cohen sings.
However, caution is warranted because of the upswing in
daily new cases at the right side of the chart. The low in daily new cases
occurs on 2/15/21, last Monday, at 54K cases the best number since October. The
daily news cases head higher for four straight days after the low up to 79K new
cases yesterday.
Here is a charting technique you can use to assess the path
ahead. Do you see how the daily new cases spike higher every few days over the
last five weeks but each time the bar comes up to the blue 7-day MA line, it is
spanked back down? The daily new cases are now testing this 7-day MA resistance
line again. It is for all the marbles, folks.
If the daily new cases spike up though the 7-day MA line,
that says the downward trend is changing and daily new cases will keep rising
here on out. This would mean the B117 strain is starting to bite hard. It would
destroy the current hope and optimism and cause the active cases curve to once
again curve higher.
On the positive side, if the daily new cases are spanked
back down and fall back below the 7-day MA line, that will be the best news of
the pandemic. It will tell you that the virus is being defeated and the active
cases curve will keep rolling-over lower to form the bell shape and signal
great times ahead.
We will know the outcome in a few days. The weekend data may
be soft so that will help keep the bars below the 7-day MA but Monday and
Tuesday data may be the big test. Simply reference the Worldometer chart above
on Tuesday and see how it turned out and you will know what the future brings
before anyone else.
Another chart trend to watch is the decrease in daily new
cases where the bars are printing lower lows and lower highs. During the
five-week decrease in daily new cases, the pattern of lower lows in cases and
lower highs in cases continues week after week to present. The prior daily new
cases highs were between 2/10/21 and 2/12/21, that prior cluster, where the
100K line is at, so that is another line in the sand. If the daily new cases
move above those prior highs at 100K-ish, the US is screwed.
Using the two tools to gauge the pandemic path forward, if
daily new cases remain below the 7-day MA, America is in the clear and it looks
like the new strains will not be a major issue, and with vaccinations continuing,
the future is wine, roses and happiness. Dr Fauci says if the data continues to
improve a normal baseball season may be in play from April forward.
If the daily new cases start moving above the 7-dday MA,
forget that rosy talk, it’s over and a new wave is likely beginning, probably
due to B117. If the daily new cases then balk at the 100K level and move lower
again, there will be renewed hope and optimism.
If the daily new cases continue higher after punching up
through the 7-day MA, and then punch up through the 100K level, America is
screwed. Bad things will begin happening. The active cases curve will move
higher and heaven forbid that curve takes out the 1/31/21 high, if so, it would
be disaster. The next two weeks are key. America fears a fourth wave, or fourth
surge, some are calling it.
For the US active cases chart above, the peak on 1/31/21 is
holding and the chart is rolling-over to the downside to form the bell shape.
The good news from the last article is fantastic news now. America has the
virus on the run, and this is occurring without all that many vaccinations in
the bag, which makes it better news. Again, the only trouble that would derail
the optimism is the variants, hiding in the bushes, ready to pounce.
The Keystone Model forecasted 2/5/21 for the peak in active
cases and 1/31/21 is close enough for government work. The peak in active cases
occurs 23 days after the peak in daily new cases. There was concern that the
Superbowl on 2/7/21 would be a superspreader event. The Christmas and holiday
fun was 12/18/20 (Friday starting the travel push) through 12/26/20. The daily
new cases peak on 1/8/21 so that is 13 to 21 days after the holiday or 14 days,
exactly 2 weeks, after Christmas Day. Daily new cases rose from 12/27/20
forward so from 2 days after Christmas forward. New Years is more of a honey
holiday this year with the pandemic, like Valentine’s Day, so a big increase in
cases would not be expected after these events.
Thus, assessing the Superbowl, the daily new cases would be
expected to increase from 2/9/21 going forward and perhaps peak on 2/21/21
(tomorrow). The daily cases bumped higher into 2/11/21 but then quickly
trailed-off again which is good news. The high in daily new cases today is
below the 2/11/21 bump so that tells you the Superbowl is likely not a
noticeable superspreader event.
The fans attending the Superbowl returned home and any
increase in transmission will likely blend in with the general numbers and not
stick out as a key event. This is encouraging for defeating the pandemic since
people take COVID-19 seriously and are doing what they can to prevent
transmission (masking and social distancing). Also, Florida, where the
Superbowl was held, is a pathway for B117 from the UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal
and eastern Europe, so it is good news that cases do not appear to be spiking
in the US two weeks hence.
The only remaining flies in the ointment are the variant
strains. The red line on the US active cases chart indicates the bad path ahead
if the daily cases begin spiking above the 7-day MA and then if daily new cases
move above 100K. The blue line is our current path. Say a prayer, or make a
wish, that the blue path will become Our Destiny.
The blue path on the US active cases chart is the path
forward unless the variants derail the joy. An encouraging sign from a chart
perspective is that this latest flattening of the curve is not so much a
flattening but a peak and now a developing steady downward path which is
excellent. Note the two prior times the curve flattened when we had a chance to
defeat the virus. The fact that the top of the curve occurs quickly and it is
now sloping downward, rather than the prior sideways behavior, is a positive
sign.
For the US daily new deaths chart above, the trend is
clearly lower which is great news. The daily new deaths drop in a pattern of
lower lows and lower highs which is excellent. The brown 7-day MA shows the
downward trend which is a welcome sight. Nonetheless, 1,988 Americans died from
covid yesterday. Everyone knows what it is like to lose a loved one, it is
tough. There are hundreds of thousands of families in the United States whose
lives will never be the same.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) does
a great job with the mortality data and charts. The news is never happy,
however, when discussing human death. The IHME predicts that US deaths will
cross 500K on Tuesday or Wednesday. IHME estimates that 615K Americans will be
dead on 6/1/21 at the current pace. The worse-case scenario is 645K dead by
6/1/21.
In the 1918 Spanish Flu, 675K Americans died. Hopefully, the
IHME death curve will go completely flat. Americans wore masks from 1918 to
1920 when the Spanish Flu finally finished its wrath and herd immunity was
achieved for the world.
Easter is 4/4/21 which will be a party weekend but Americans
should be well-behaved until then as the winter season continues in the
northern hemisphere. More good news. Spring will be coming bringing warmer
weather so the April through September heat will help keep COVID-19 at bay.
Folks will not be couped-up inside breathing each other’s germs. There are lots
of reasons to be positive but the B117 variant is breathing down the back of
your neck.
The US coronavirus hospitalizations data continues improving
to 59,882. The peak hospitalizations are 132,474 on 1/6/21 a 55% reduction in
only 5 weeks. For waves 1 and 2, the two peaks in hospitalizations were at 60K
and the two dips were at 30K. The United States is down to 60K now which is
great. Sub 60K would be fantastic since it would be less hospitalizations than
the prior peaks. If hospitalizations drop below 30K, confetti can be thrown as
the champagne is poured.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at nearly 29 million followed by India (11 million), Brazil (10.1),
Russia (4.2), UK (4.1), France (3.6), Spain (3.1), Italy (2.8), Turkey (2.6), Germany (2.4), Colombia (2.2),
Argentina (2.1), Mexico (2.0), Poland (1.6), Iran (1.6), South Africa (1.5),
Ukraine (1.3), Peru (1.3), Indonesia (1.3), Czechia (1.1), Netherlands (1.1),
Canada (841K), Portugal (796K), Chile (796K), Romania (777K), Belgium (750K),
Israel (745K), Iraq (665K), Sweden (631K), Pakistan (570K), Philippines (559K),
Switzerland (548K) and Bangladesh (543K).
That is 33 nations with over 500,000 coronavirus cases same
as 11 days. It is noticeable how the data only increased marginally for most
nations while many others were flat. Brazil, France, Peru, Indonesia, Pakistan,
Sweden and Iraq may be experiencing difficulties ahead.
The herd immunity math is straight forward and provided in the
prior articles. About 240 million Americans need vaccinated to reach herd
immunity. The vaccinations need to occur by Labor Day, 9/6/21, since the new
flu and covid season will begin for the Fall which may bring new challenges and
variants. The 9/6/21 drop-dead date is 198 days away.
The Bloomberg vaccine tracker reports 199 million vaccine
doses administered around the world. In the US, 61 million doses are
administered for a 1.5 million doses per day vaccination rate. The rate slumps
a little because of the cold winter weather wreaking havoc across the US. The
data does not provide the number of people that receive two doses versus one
dose but taking the 61 million doses and halving it estimates that 30 million
are vaccinated with two doses.
The US needs to vaccinate 240 million people and taking away
30 is another 210 million people remaining, or 420 million doses. President
Biden said 600 million total doses would be available by July. If 420 million
doses need administered within 198 days, this is a 2.1 million dose per day
vaccination rate to finish by Labor Day. This rate goal increases marginally
higher each day that it is not achieved.
At the 1.5 million dose per day rate, the 210 million
remaining people to be vaccinated would be finished in 280 days, or 11/17/21;
November! At the current vaccination rate, everyone can give thanks at
Thanksgiving that we have reached the herd immunity vaccination rate, however,
we will not be able to celebrate since we will be sick with the new Fall flu
and new covid variant.
If the US can vaccinate at 2.5 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 168 days, or
8/7/21. Herd immunity will not occur until August even at the 2.5 rate.
If the US can vaccinate at 3.0 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 140 days, or
7/10/21. Independence Day July 4th would be a nice goal.
If the US can vaccinate at 3.5 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 120 days, or
6/20/21. The first day of summer would greet Americans with joyous herd
immunity news.
If the US can vaccinate at 4.0 million doses per day, the
remaining 210 million people (420 doses) can be finished in 105 days, or 6/5/21,
only 3-1/2 months away. Even at robust rates, the vaccinations would continue
into June.
The anti-vaccination dilemma is going to come to a head in
April and May. The United States is going to have plenty of vaccine available
but sometimes you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.
Vaccine incentives will have to be provided to entice some folks. Most will
probably be adamant in their refusal to be vaccinated. This would place America
just shy of the percentages needed for herd immunity.
Johnson & Johnson is beefing-up its vaccine to better
handle the new variants. Less doses may be available when it is approved but it
will likely be a state-of-the-art vaccine ready to treat the latest variant.
The South Africa B1351 strain may be problematic in a few weeks.
The US has doubled-down on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine
shipments so it is no longer important to have the J&J vaccine available to
achieve herd immunity. However, as the refusals to get vaccinated increase in
April and May, it would be nice to have the J&J vaccine. Many people do not
want the vaccine because of the new mRNA technology but some would be agreeable
to receiving a one-shot conventional style vaccine from J&J.
For the herd immunity calculation, 15% of Americans are
assumed to have had covid and acquired antibodies. The US needs 70% to 90% of
the population to have antibodies to claim herd immunity; call that 78% as an
average. Thus, 63% of Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. About
10% of people will not return for the second shot so adding that back is 73% of
Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. There are 330 million people
in the US so 73% is about 240 million people.
Interestingly, the improvement in the data and charts may be
due to more Americans having been infected with covid than thought. About 9% of
Americans are infected and adding another 6% that we do not know about, is the
15% used for the herd immunity calculation. 15% of the US is 50 million people.
However, what if it is more like 100 million Americans that have had covid?
Most are asymptomatic so people do not even realize they are sick. Many people
have fatigue, pain and so forth but simply chalk it up to getting old and they
go on living life instead of hiding under the bed. These folks may have had
covid and never knew it.
If the infection number to determine antibodies was double
the 15% estimate, that is 30%, the 100 million people number, then only 58%
more Americans would need vaccinated to reach herd immunity and that is 191
million people. Take away 30 million already vaccinated (estimated with two
doses), that is only 160 million more Americans that need vaccinated. At the
1.5 million dose per day rate, that is 107 days which is June for herd immunity.
Also, many Americans live in rural settings away from the busy city life and hurried humans. These folks go to the grocery store once per week and that is about it. Church is on line for most places nowadays. The combination of the virus already infecting far more Americans than anyone realizes, the vaccination program expanding, and the rural isolated living of many folks, and, perhaps, the natural burnout of the virus after it is in circulation for over one year, sends the data and charts to a good place.
The next month of pandemic data is going to be extremely interesting and determine how the year will proceed and finish. The US is in good
shape but keep the fingers, and your unsightly toes, crossed. The next 2 weeks will probably dictate the path ahead for the next 2 or 3 months.
The 2-dose versus 1-dose controversy continues. The Fauch
says stick with two doses because that is what the drug trial data verifies.
The UK has had success tamping down their nasty B117 outbreak that is more
contagious than the standard coronavirus giving citizens one dose and not so
much worried about the timeliness of the second shot. The first shot provided
from 66% to 80% or more effectiveness.
America is weighing the same decision but the consensus is
sticking with the 2-shot regimen. Looking at the situation simply, there are
millions of doses of vaccine coming. The Whitehouse says double and triple
shipments are going out this weekend and the vaccination sites will need to
ramp up staffing and appointments. Thus, there will be vaccine out the wazoo
and millions of Americans that will not take the shot. There will likely not be
a worry about supply or availability. Therefore, the Fauch is
likely correct; use 2 doses.
In the UK, the Brits are more prone to obey government. That
is why people do not visit London like decades past since you have to be
worried about getting stabbed on the street. The guns were taken away from the
docile public, anxious to give up their rights, so the criminals rule the
sidewalks with knives. The vaccine is the same way.
Over 80% of Brit’s plan to take or have had the vaccine and
the support grows daily. They are lining up for their sustenance. The number
increased from 65% due to the fear of the more virulent B117 strain. Tell the
Brit’s they need to take the shot and they immediately kneel in front of you and
roll-up their sleeve. This was an advantage for the UK but will be a challenge
for the US. Many Americans do not want to conform to the establishment and do
not want to take the vaccine just because ‘the man’ says so. Many Americans
kneel for no man. Other weak souls, like many in the UK, kneel and do whatever they
are told without question or rebuttal.
Another concern is that one dose only provides the partial
immunity so coronavirus may interact with these individuals and produce a strong
variant strain. That would not be good. America will probably stick with the
2-dose regimen for now. In the UK, some of the second doses have taken up to 12
weeks. The recommendation by Pfizer and Moderna is for the second shots to take
place in a 3 to 4 week time frame. No one is having an egg if the second shot
is administered 5 or 6 weeks after the first but the United States will avoid
deviating any further than that which is likely the correct path forward.
The vaccine passports remain a hot topic. Israel now issues
a green card to those that have been vaccinated which allows them to travel
freely and attend events. Freedom is only an illusion on planet Earth in 2021.
It would be a huge mistake for the US to force mandatory
vaccines; it will result in civil war. A government has no right to violate a
human body. If people are locked out of traveling or attending events because
they refuse to be vaccinated, many will live with that, so the action would
only serve to devastate the economy. If people want to take the vaccine, great,
take it, if not, don’t. Everyone has their own bag and should not criticize any
decision that others make.
Keep taking zinc and vitamin D-3 which boosts your immune
system and may help prevent the onset of the virus. Vitamins A and C are also
helpful and turmeric. All of these should be part of a daily regimen regardless
of coronavirus. In addition, initial medical studies show that selenium
supplementation may be helpful in reducing the effects of coronavirus. Selenium
is already known as a cancer-preventive supplement. As always, check with doc before
mapping-out any vitamin and supplement program. Keystone takes all the
supplements and vitamins listed daily, and has never had a flu shot, and has
never taken an antibiotic, and is an old guy, so there is no reason to start
that vaccination stuff now. Everyone has to make their own decisions.
The best prevention is to simply stay as far away as
possible from people. If you practice this ‘extreme social distancing’ and
choose to get the vaccine, you will be in great shape and not have to worry
about contracting covid at all.
The worry about vaccine nationalism a month ago has morphed
into a happier more collegial vaccine diplomacy around the world. India is
sending vaccine to the Caribbean Islands. Europe commits to funding the COVAX
program, that provides vaccines to third world countries, but it is associated
with WHO that has a soiled reputation from lying in bed with communist China.
President Biden kicks in $4 billion for the COVAX effort. He better tell those
jackasses to watch their spending and an audit is going to be performed when
they are finished.
The US should tell Taiwan that we will help them with vaccine
since the filthy mainland communists are screwing the island nation. China
would be happy if Taiwan became completely infected with covid; then it would
be easy to take control. The CCP are sick bastards and do not doubt they are
thinking about it.
China and Russia are making their vaccines available
worldwide, however, the global community are skeptical of these two partners in
crime. China released the coronavirus bioweapon, either intentionally or
accidentally, so only a fool would believe anything the communists say. The
vaccines they are playing with use an HIV carrier which poses danger to the
patient of contracting HIV. No thank you to the witches brew the filthy
communists and Ruskies are mixing up in their bioweapon’s labs.
Russia is also dealing with a bird flu problem. Workers at a poultry plant became sick in December. Scientists confirm the first transmission of the H5N8 bird flu strain from animal to human. In the past, other bird flu strains such as H5N1, H7N9 and H9N2 have been transmitted from animal to human. The planet will likely have to deal with H5N8 in the future.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, and more data and information become available, to push
the story forward.
This is Article 34 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This thirty-fourth article is published on Saturday,
2/20/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair. There is no time to think only to keep
catching your breath as the events fly by.
All 34 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog
and will be pulled together into a large book in the future providing the entire
pandemic history chronicled in real-time. The COVID-19 pandemic information has
been recorded, in detail, every day over the last year and it would be stupid
to stop this historic documentation now. The last few articles are linked here
if you want to come up to speed with the pandemic saga over the last month.
The thirty-first article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 1/17/21; 407K AMERICANSDEAD; Coronavirus is Smacking South Carolina, North Carolina, New York, NewJersey and Virginia; New UK Strain B117 Lurking in the Shadows; GLOBAL TOTALCOVID CASES EXCEED 95 MILLION; Global Hotspots Include Mexico, Central America,South America, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia,Eastern Europe, Portugal, Spain and UK; US Vaccination Program Fiasco; VaccineHesitancy; US CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY 1/20/21; President Trump Departs;President Biden Inauguration 1/20/21; OVER 430K AMERICANS DEAD FROM COVID;GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES TOP 100 MILLION; Coronavirus Article 31 published on 1/17/21.
The thirty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 1/30/21; OVER 450K AMERICANS
DEAD; Herd Immunity by Labor Day is a Formidable Goal; Vaccine Disorder
Continues; EU (European Union) Fires First Shot in the Vaccine Nationalization
Wars; California, Texas and New Jersey Are Flattening the Active Cases Curves a
Positive Development; America Improves but the New Variants May Destroy Hope;
Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Bahrain, UAE, Spain, Portugal,
France, Nigeria, Mexico and United States Remain COVID-19 Hot Spots; Global
Coronavirus Cases Exceed 103 Million; Global Deaths Exceed 2.2 Million;
President Biden Takes Control; J&J Vaccine Seeks Emergency Approval; 471K
AMERICANS DEAD; Coronavirus Article 32 published on 1/30/21.
The thirty-third article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 2/9/21; 480K AMERICANS DEAD;US Vaccination Program Gathers Momentum; Global Pandemic Improving; VaccinePassports; Herd Immunity; Superbowl and New Variants May Destroy Hope; Worst USStates are Virginia, South Carolina, New York, Maryland and Georgia; Worst HotSpot Nations are France, Spain, Portugal, Bahrain, Qatar, Peru, Bolivia,Indonesia and Malaysia; Global Coronavirus Cases Exceed 107 Million; GlobalDeaths Exceed 2.35 Million; UNITED STATES CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 500K;Coronavirus Article 33 published on 2/9/21.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data track each other well with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a couple-few days.
The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information and data
available for those wanting to study and understand the virus in more detail.
The nations on the list below are experiencing the worst pandemic
outbreaks currently (based on the data which nations may or may not be
reporting truthfully) and are the worst global hotspots. The data is helpful in
identifying broad regions that are experiencing outbreaks.
The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks in active cases based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of
the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the list the hardest.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. South Korea and Japan are
back in good graces after defeating the latest virus waves which proved
difficult.
Israel is delivering vaccinations faster than any other
country at the rate of 79 doses per 100 people. The UAE is at 51 doses per 100
people, the UK is 26, US 18, Chile 15, and Turkey 8 doses per 100 people.
Perhaps the end of the pandemic occurs when the virus
decides to dissipate and move on or die on its own accord. Many past viruses
linger for about 18 months and then fade away. The COVID-19 saga is ongoing for
13 months although cases may have been occurring in the United States in
November 2019 which is 16 months ago.
Belgium (Third Wave) (there are
issues with the data; numbers are likely higher; it appears the daily case
numbers are likely suppressed)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever for third wave)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart continues higher)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (conditions slowly improving)
Egypt (Second Wave)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date(cases
starting to ramp higher again)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
Ireland (Third Wave) (problematic
data hampers analysis; the daily new cases are likely underreported)
1/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve continues higher)
Bahrain (Third Wave)
2/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 9/16/20, 2/12/21 and 2/15/21)
2/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
France (Third Wave)
2/17/21 New Case Peak Date (new
cases remain steady and robust)
3/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Peru (Third Wave begins)
2/18/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 8/16/20 and 2/18/21)
3/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Qatar (Second Wave)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date
3/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Czechia (Fourth Wave begins)
2/19/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
3/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
France is in terrible shape.
The daily new cases remain robust and strong driving the active cases chart
higher and higher. France! Get your act together! France is one of the few
nations that are the worst in the entire world. What is going on there? Put the
wine, baguette and cigarettes down and go home and social distance. France is
going to implement the ‘crisis organization’ plan which will provide more
hospital beds, increase staffing and delay non-essential surgeries. This should
have already been done. Do it! Chop, chop. You are under siege France. Wake up!
The outbreak in France may impact all of Europe.
Czechia takes a turn for the
worse beginning a fourth wave higher. Czechia has been beaten like a rented
mule over the last year. Sweden deaths spike higher by 33 deaths yesterday
which must be watched closely.
Peru falls back into covid
Hell. Deaths in Peru are approaching the same levels as the first wave. In the
worst news of this article, 50% to 60% of Peruvians that were infected with
coronavirus in the past are now infected with a new variant! This is extremely
troubling. Copper prices have shot to the moon since many mine workers are ill.
Keep an eye on Chile. It rolled its active cases chart over lower but the
country may be experiencing a developing problem. Bolivia, Peru and Chile are continuing
to battle the pandemic.
India needs to tread softly.
The daily new cases are taking a tiny move higher, ditto active cases, which
may forecast major trouble for India ahead. Try to nip it in the bud, India! If
an outbreak occurs in India going forward, you are witnessing the exact
conception right now. Malaysia and Indonesia remain hot spots but they have
improved.
The United States was taken
off the bad list since its active cases curve is rolling-over to the downside.
The worst covid nations are France, Czechia, Qatar, Bahrain and Peru, which is
central and western Europe, Middle East and western side of South America as
the worst hot spots. The world is in the best shape it has been in 4 or 5
months.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states below have failed
to flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to suffer a new wave higher again.
The pandemic has greatly improved despite all the drama with
the vaccine roll-out. The number of Americans infected with coronavirus over
the last year may be far higher than thought, due to the asymptomatic nature of
the disease, so herd immunity may not be as far away as expected. Let’s hope
the variants do not crush the hope and optimism.
Oregon (Third Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher trying to flatten)
Indiana (Third Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve peaking now)
Washington (Third Wave)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
Kansas (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
11/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/21/21 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart continues higher)
Maine (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Alaska (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Arizona (Second Wave) (data is
suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart is flattening)
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Kentucky
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Delaware (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Hawaii (Third Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Maryland (Third Wave)
1/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/9/21)
2/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
New York (Second Wave)
1/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flattening)
South Carolina (Third Wave)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 12/27/20 and 1/16/21)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Virginia (Second Wave)
1/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
2/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Considering the US active cases curve above and how it is
sloping lower perhaps about to take a strong leg lower, which is a good thing
(less active cases), it would be expected that far more of the active cases
charts for the states would have rolled over to the downside, but they have
not. The next couple weeks are a pivotal time in the pandemic. The US is at an
inflection point and the hope is that the variants are manageable and the path
is down with daily new cases and active cases.
There are nightly protests and riots in Portland and other
Oregon cities which may be promoting the ongoing spread of coronavirus. California’s
active cases curve rolls-over to the downside and mimics the US active cases
chart as it should since it is such a populace state. California has a heavy
weighting in the USA data.
Most states above have daily new cases trending lower for a
few weeks but the active cases curves continue higher. You can smell a rat in
some of that data. It will probably be discovered in the future that the daily
new cases are underreported for at least a few of the states above. When it
comes to numbers, never try to fool a mathematician.
Texas, USA, is hit with a major winter storm over the last
week which crippled the electrical power grid that is not hooked up to another
state’s grid (so they cannot be saved). Texas implemented rolling blackouts for
several days and frigid temperatures burst water pipes that are not insulated
for that warmer climate. Texas remains in chaos although power has been
restored for most of the state.
The vaccinations were halted in Texas and other states since
many roads are impassable. The FedEx and UPS trucks coming out of their
warehouse hubs in Tennessee and Kentucky could not make vaccine deliveries due
to the weather conditions. The Texas ship will try to be righted in the week
ahead.
Biden plans to sign a disaster declaration for Texas that is
hit with the winter storm and devastating power outages. The Texas disaster
will cost millions if not perhaps billions in damage. Home Depot and Lowe’s
will be selling copper pipe, solder and propane gas cylinders like gangbusters.
Everyone across the south is kissing the plumber’s *ss crack that is always on
display when he is working under the kitchen sink. Plumbers are the most
popular people in America right now especially Texas.
Texas republican Senator Ted Cruz is under fire for taking a
vacation to Cancun as people in his state are dying in the disaster. Lyin’ Ted
is now Flyin’ Ted. An elderly couple was found dead in Texas, lying in their
recliner, frozen to death. How could this happen in America? Texas hangs its
head in shame. Cruz’s political future is toast.
New York democrat Governor Cuomo, given credit for properly
handling the pandemic, that is now worse again, is under intense criticism with
officials calling for his resignation or impeachment over the nursing home
scandal. Cuomo allegedly hid about one-half of the nursing home deaths. He sent
thousands of elderly folks back to the homes last year that were sick with
covid and they and others died. Thousands died. Cuomo’s political future is
toast.
President Biden proclaims, “I believe we will be approaching
normalcy by the end of this year, but I cannot make that commitment to you.”
Biden also says the vaccine shipments are ordered but the weather may hamper
deliveries. He is being more candid and straight forward with the public which
is needed after one year of King Donnie telling everyone all is fine as 400K
American bodies are carried to the morgue.
CNN runs a story about Maria Aulenbacher, 111 years young, receiving a vaccine. Maria was alive during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Her life will be bookended by once-in-a-century pandemics.
Americans finally take a deep breath and relax. The pandemic
is at a calm place right now. The data is the best it has been in four months.
Things are looking up and trending in the right direction. Are the Americans
seeing the eye of the storm with the backside (variants) yet to come, or, has
the covid storm passed and the calm is here to stay? The US fears a fourth
wave, or fourth surge, as some prefer.
The key takeaway is to watch the US daily new cases chart
above. Watch to see if the new cases punch up through the 7-day MA as
explained. That is a bad thing and then if the daily new cases exceed 100K
trending higher, America is screwed. This will mean that the new variant/s,
probably the UK’s B117, is smacking the USA. If the daily new cases remain
under the 7-day MA, every day forward is wine and roses.
In the time it took to finish today’s article, the US
coronavirus deaths are 509,711 as per Worldometer a whisker from 510K dead. The
IHME projects 495K dead today. The Johns-Hopkins deaths are at 496K today and
should cross the dreaded 500K mark tomorrow or Monday.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 2/21/21: Australia kicks off its vaccination program with Prime Minister Scott Morrison rolling up his sleeve. The standard public relations move is repeated around the world to instill confidence in the huddled masses. Of course a few elderly folks are paraded across the television screen as well an 85-year old rolling up her sleeve encouraging everyone to take the jab. A poll from the Aussie health department says 9% will never take the jab, 27% are on the fence and 64% definitely plan to take the shot. The breakdown is similar to other nations except for the UK which is over 80% compliance; Brit's blindly do whatever they are told. Aussies are a lot alike rural Americans; straight-forward folks with common sense. The anti-vaxxer's march in protest of the vaccination program with signs such as "Think While It Is Still Legal" and "Freedom Of Choice Is Important." The anti-vaccination demonstrators march and chant, "My Body, My Choice," which it is, unless a government says it is not. The world is coming up fast on a global anti-vaccination juggernaut. In a couple months, everyone that wants to be vaccinated in many Western nations will be vaccinated. What happens in April-June when the vaccine supplies are stacking up but people are not willing to roll-up their sleeves? If the bulk of the population does not get vaccinated, herd immunity does not occur. What will the feeble politicians decide? Will they force the huddled masses to the ground and shoot the mRNA vaccines into their veins whether they want it or not? It is interesting times. The plot thickens. 509,875 Americans are dead from coronavirus. CNN reports 498K Americans dead. The J-H data may cross 5 hundo thou later today. A half a million dead bodies is a lot. 400K are on King Donnie Trump's watch and 100K on Sleepy Joe Biden's watch.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/21/21, at 1:00 PM EST: Governor Cuomo says the South Africa variant B1351 is detected in New York. The first case of B1351 was discovered one month ago and there are now 21 cases in 10 states. There is likely more cases but the DNA sequencing capabilities in the US are limited. Cuomo touts the B1351 news trying to divert attention away from the nursing home scandal. Folks, look at this shiny bobble over here. Fauci says the data is looking better but he cautioned against complacency. He said Americans may have to wear masks into 2022. President Biden will wave the '500K Americans dead' banner early in the week to garner support for the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The cable news outlets will make a big deal of the grim 500K milestone. It is hard to grasp the number. If you filled 10 professional baseball or football stadiums with people, and then marched them off to their deaths, that is 500K dead people. Think back to the last time you sat in your home team stadium enjoying a sporting event; a professional football or baseball game. Picture the entire stadium filled, every seat, and realize that not only everyone in the stadium, but 10 times that amount, have died of coronavirus over the last year. It is amazing a bug can do that.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 2/21/21, at 2:40 PM EST: MSNBC cable news outlet announces 500K dead Americans from coronavirus. A red headline crosses the television, nicknamed a red-head, "US SURPASSES 500,000 COVID-19 DEATHS." A sad milestone. CNN news has not yet called the 500K level; it will probably be its major focus tomorrow.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/21/21: The back-to-school controversy continues. Biden falls down on the job when it comes to providing guidance on reopening schools. In fairness, it is a complicated subject. There are students from grade school to college in many different settings and locations, some are cramped inner city, others are in spacious rural areas. Biden promised that children will be back in school within his first 100 days. That deadline is April Fool's Day, 4/1/21, only 5 weeks away. At a town hall meeting hosted by CNN, Biden stumbled saying he wants kindergarten through 8th grade to return. Then there is the cheesy definition that returning to school one measly day per week will meet Biden's goal that kids are back in school. That is flimsy fig leaf. If teachers want vaccinated, vaccinate them! Most old folks will tell you to take care of the teachers; they sit home all day and watch television. Most elderly folks would rather see the teachers vaccinated and schools reopened; they see the hardship of their kids and grandchildren and when you are older you are mostly sitting at home watching television anyway. A delay in the shot for healthy elderly people would not be a big deal and most would encourage it if it removes the barrier of some teachers returning to work. Schools are controlled environments with teachers and students following masking guidelines, social distancing, hand washing and using hand sanitizer. Compare that to the local grocery store where Billy, the boy that typically retrieves the carts from the parking lot, picks his nose and then offers you the cart. Nellie, the checkout girl, is wearing her mask over her chin while corralling a cough with the back of her hand. You have an itch under your mask so you pick your nose and lips and then hand Nell the grocery card that provides points for future discounts. Do you get the picture. People are walking around in that environment as they worry about the controlled environment a school would offer. Teachers, get off your *sses and get back to work. Vacation's over.
Note Added Monday Morning, 2/22/21: India wants to make sure the world knows that it will help other countries but it is focused on handling the pandemic in its nation first. The 'vaccine diplomacy' takes a back seat as 'vaccine nationalism' rears its ugly head again. Countries would be wise to steer away from nationalistic behavior, it created the long Great Depression in the 1930's. Nations slit each other's throats focusing on themselves so it all went down the rabbit hole. Countries should relax and consider that over the coming weeks and couple-three months, there will likely be plenty of vaccine available since millions of people never plan to take the shot. The US is playing catch-up this week doubling-up on vaccine shipments and deliveries as the winter cold snap subsides. Texas remains a mess an embarrassment to itself. The Texans voted in all those jack*sses making stupid decisions so they can blame themselves. One of Keystone's many career hats is a professional engineer, and the reason that winterization was not provided is likely money. Companies and governments are cheap so they saved money not placing the proper systems in place and this is for both the conventional fuel sources such as oil, gas and coal, and the new green energy sources such as windmills and solar. All failed. Specifications are written and approved for every piece of equipment. The engineers likely recommended winterization but bean-counter's that lick management's shoes, nixed it. That's the way it goes in the engineering business the last four decades. Keystone always documented the refusal of the companies he consulted for to do the right thing because the Texas debacle is always the end result. The witchhunt begins and the knock on the engineers door occurs with management saying, "You screwed-up." Keystone would simply bring up the documentation and emails on the computer from the prior meetings and tell the bosses, "Nope, you screwed-up, jackass." They never liked hearing that especially when they realized someone knew that they were stupid in advance of them being stupid.
