Monday, August 3, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; Coronavirus Article 15






By K E Stone (Keystone)

It is hard to believe that there are 15 articles in the coronavirus (COVID-19) series so far, spaced at 10-day intervals, starting five months ago, and there is no end in sight to this bazaar pandemic. As August begins, over one million coronavirus infections are occurring every four days around the world.

This article begins with the general statistics as usual followed by the lists of countries and American states that are in the worst trouble. The US virus charts are provided above by Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The COVID-19 particle size analysis and aerosol behavior is discussed since there is little information available on this important topic. The testing mess, status of the US economy and new stimulus package are also key issues covered below. A discussion is also provided concerning the spread of the virus via public restrooms and from exposure to aerosols from fecal matter.

Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has infected 18.2 million people around the world murdering 692K souls (nearly 700,000 people!). 11.5 million people have recovered. The sick commie bastards screwed the world.

The Wuhan killer disease, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened 4.8 million Americans (1.5% of the 330 million US population), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering over 158K United States citizens. 2.4 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (26%) of the coronavirus cases and one-quarter (23%) of the deaths. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. Ole dirtbag Dictator Xi is quiet these days.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Spain, Colombia, Iran, UK, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Italy. Mexico and Peru switch positions as does Iran and UK. Colombia shot higher into the list of the top worst countries. The countries listed are a complete mess including America. The pandemic is spinning out of control in these nations. India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico and Philippines continue sinking deep into the coronavirus quagmire. Russia is hard to gauge since they are filthy communists manipulating the data like the Chinese.

Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are dealing with a second wave of coronavirus. Australia is in the southern hemisphere in wintertime currently. Spain is moving towards a second wave event with new cases rising steadily. This is bad news for Europe. Peru is also ramping higher in new cases forming a second wave taking out the first wave highs in May.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 15 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This fifteenth article is published on Monday, 8/3/20. This series of coronavirus articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing coronavirus pandemic from the start.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru serve as test cases for the second wave that will likely hit the United States this Fall (September-November). It is unknown as yet if these countries can slap the virus back again in the same amount of time or less. Bill Gates says the second wave will hit the US in September. Gates provides future dates for virus-related events that typically occur. How does he know and accurately forecast these events?

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. The news is not good for many countries and states as highlighted below. Several of the active cases charts are going parabolic (vertical) which means trouble is here to stay for a solid month or two.

The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for forecasting purposes. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.

The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,407 new cases in one day. On 7/31/20, the new cases are over 71K but that is not within 8% of the New Case Peak Date of 7/24/20, thus, adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US active cases to peak (healthcare workers are at maximum stress, the top of the active cases bell curve, but then relief is on the way for the weeks following 8/21/20). This is illustrated in the charts above.

There is also lots of chatter about the CDC, a couple days ago, predicting 20K more US deaths by 8/22/20. The IHME predicts more than 220K dead by November unless Americans wear masks and practice social distancing. The chart above illustrates these comments. The daily new death chart above shows the 7-day moving average dropping when Vice President Pence, the head of the virus task force, boasted with his boss that deaths were decreasing and that is all that matters. Well, they changed their mind once the deaths began increasing again. Now Pence and Trump are touting the greatness that the number of people dying each day is less than it was in April. Isn’t that reassuring?

The worst global hotspots are highlighted below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers) provided.

Saudi Arabia
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (peak occurs 7/13/20; good call by the Keystone Model)


Egypt
6/19/20 New Case Peak Date
7/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (peak occurs 7/21/20; good call by the Keystone Model)

Sweden (data is suspect)
6/24/20 New Case Peak Date
7/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in due to poor data but the deaths are way down and total cases flattening; the worst appears over)

Bangladesh
7/2/20 New Case Peak Date
7/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)

Indonesia
7/9/20 New Case Peak Date
8/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/18/20; its flatlining)

Australia (Second Wave)
7/30/20 New Case Peak Date
8/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

Hong Kong (Second Wave)
7/30/20 New Case Peak Date
8/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

Japan (Second Wave)
8/1/20 New Case Peak Date
8/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)

Kazakhstan
7/18/20 New Case Peak Date
8/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 7/27/20)

Honduras
7/20/20 New Case Peak Date
8/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

United States
7/24/20 New Case Peak Date
8/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

South Africa
7/24/20 New Case Peak Date
8/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Kenya
7/26/20 New Case Peak Date
8/23/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Brazil
7/29/20 New Case Peak Date
8/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Romania
7/31/20 New Case Peak Date
8/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Argentina
7/31/20 New Case Peak Date
8/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Spain (Second Wave)
7/31/20 New Case Peak Date
8/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; this second wave is currently only one-third to one-half as bad as first wave so strain on medical folks is not as dire but it is serious)

Peru (Second Wave)
8/1/20 New Case Peak Date
8/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

El Salvador
8/1/20 New Case Peak Date
8/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Ukraine
8/1/20 New Case Peak Date
8/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

India
8/1/20 New Case Peak Date
8/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bolivia
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Colombia
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Philippines
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Asia (Indonesia and Philippines) remains a hotspot. Ditto South Asia with India and Bangladesh. Peru is seeing a steady uptick in new cases which creates a second wave of new cases for this copper-rich nation. Mexico and Central and South America continue dealing with the covid nightmare. Mexico and the southern United States is a highly infected region. Colombia and Bolivia have descended into Hell over the last week. South Africa is another hotspot. In Kazakhstan, there is concern that the region may be impacted by a different strain of coronavirus. Virus conditions in Ukraine have worsened over the last week.

On the positive side, these troubled countries in bad shape with the virus are projected to top out this month on the active cases curve, albeit the end of the month. If citizens follow guidelines during August, the world may have a handle on the virus come Labor Day (early September). Unfortunately, this may be just in time before the second wave begins around the world?

Sadly, as per the target date above generated by the Keystone Model, the United States will not see a peak in the active cases curve, identifying the peak stress on the medical system and personnel, until August 21. Good luck to all you fine doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and support staff for the healthcare industry. After the peak, it usually takes another week or two for the right side of the bell shape to begin forming with a dramatic drop-off in cases and hospitalizations so America’s healthcare workers face a tough period now through Labor Day. Maybe a lot of you can then take some time off to rest, eat calmly and recharge your batteries in September. Hang in there.

For the second wave nations, Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are projected to place a peak in their active cases bell curves in quick order like the first wave, but this may or may not occur. Hong Kong is in trouble because the mainland Beijing leadership will keep screwing the region for its social unrest. The projections for Spain and Peru use the 28-day period that was in play for their first waves. Spain is key for Europe. Watch it closely. If it deteriorates further with new cases, it may be an omen of what is to come with the continent.

For America, the troubled states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 13 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California at 516K total cases, Florida with 487K, Texas with 454K, New York at 445K, Georgia at 193K, New Jersey with 188K, Illinois with 183K cases, Arizona at 179K, North Carolina with 126K, Louisiana at 120K, Pennsylvania with 118K and Tennessee with 110K. Ohio, the key battleground state that all future presidents must win in the election, is next on the list with over 93K total virus cases. New York led the list for months but the hotspots of California, Florida and Texas take on the dubious top roles.

New York is in good shape now with its active cases curve displaying the desired bell shape. Ditto New Jersey. Massachusetts has weathered the first wave of the coronavirus storm. Ditto Pennsylvania although the Keystone State is teasing second wave behavior currently. Rhode Island also made it through the spring trouble but is threatening to fall into a second wave. Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont have weathered the first onslaught of the virus. South Dakota is flatlining and hanging in there (see comments on Sturgis below).

Georgia worsens. Also Tennessee. New Mexico remains in bad shape over the last couple weeks but the media never mentions the state.

Illinois, Virginia, Michigan, Indiana, Colorado, Nebraska, Delaware, Maryland, North Dakota are handling second waves. The Illinois chart is shown above and representative of the other states as far as how the chart appears for a second wave. Pennsylvania and Rhode Island are teasing a second wave.  The active cases curves climb higher for the nine states handling a second wave with Pennsylvania and Rhode Island active cases curves moving sideways.

Arizona
New Case Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20 (chart continues higher)

Florida
New Case Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/9/20

Washington (state)
New Case Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20

Texas
New Case Peak Date 7/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/12/20

Utah
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20 (may have peaked 7/25/20)

Iowa
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20

Idaho
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/13/20

Nevada
New Case Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/14/20

South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20 (ugly chart)

Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/16/20

Kansas
New Case Peak Date 7/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/17/20 (may have peaked 7/31/20)

Missouri
New Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20

Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20 (may have peaked 7/27/20)

California
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20

West Virginia
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/19/20

Alabama
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/20/20

Arkansas (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart shows peak on 7/19/20 so there may be a problem with the data)

Delaware (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20

Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20

Montana
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/22/20

Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/22/20

Colorado (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/22/20

Minnesota
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20

Oregon
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20

Louisiana
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20

Alaska
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20

New Mexico
New Case Peak Date 7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/24/20

Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/24/20

Wyoming
New Case Peak Date 7/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/25/20

Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/29/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/26/20

Ohio (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/27/20 (chart shows a peak 7/27/20 so there is a problem with the data; new cases are the highest since the pandemic began)

North Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/27/20

Missouri
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/27/20

Mississippi
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/27/20

Hawaii
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/28/20

Tennessee
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/28/20

Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/28/20

North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/28/20

Illinois (Second Wave; see chart above)
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/28/20

Indiana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/29/20

Wisconsin
New Case Peak Date 8/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/29/20

There are 41 states above battling the coronavirus with their active cases curves continuing to move higher. 33 of the states print a peak in new cases over the last 14 days. 33 states are printing new case highs over the last 2 weeks. That is not good since it means it will take a little while for the active cases curves to flatten and roll over. The medical media has been warning about the increase in cases in the Midwest over the last week and that is easy to see from the list. Illinois and Indiana would be lucky to peak-out on their active cases curves this month.

Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worse and it is the location of the virtual democrat convention. The RNC (republican) convention remains in flux moving from North Carolina to Florida then back again. The RNC may limit access to the event.

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their medical personnel and equipment.

The second waves for the US states are a new twist to the ongoing coronavirus saga. Perhaps the active cases curves may peak sooner the second time around? Time will tell. These second waves came out of left field because a week and a half ago, most of those states looked fine.

There is far too little written about the particle size analysis of COVID-19. Perhaps it is better to keep people dumb and just keep telling them to wear a mask, practice social distancing and wash their hands. The 0.125 micron (125 nanometers) virus particle size has a lot to do with how long it remains airborne (light and tiny particles remain floating in the air longer than heavier and larger particles).

A micron is 1/1000th of a millimeter. A human hair is about 75 microns thick so you can begin to understand the tiny coronavirus particle size. A red blood cell is about 5 microns. Bacteria is typically between 0.2 and 3.0 microns. The immediate observation is that covid is smaller than the bacteria particles hence it could stay active in the air longer.

Masks are a big controversy as is everything now during the bread and circus days. Generally, republicans proudly do not want to wear masks while democrats do (emphasize generally, most people are wearing masks these days). Can that tiny 0.13 micron virus particle be stopped by a mask? Some of the cotton masks that Aunt Sarah made may have 0.5 micron openings in the material so they help but are not 100% effective. The N95 masks filter down to 0.3 microns so the immediate conclusion is that even these masks may have limited ability to stop the coronavirus.

Particle physics is a complex science. One of Keystone’s many past career hats is a chemical engineer consulting for many of the major chemical companies around the world. There are many moving variables in the study of masks and aerosols; maybe that is why the medical media avoids discussing this topic with the public. First, some quick background. The measles virus is an aerosol that can float in the air for a couple hours infecting up to a dozen people far more contagious than covid that may infect two or three people.

COVID-19 has a half-life of 1.1 hours which means one-half of the particles in the air, after you sneeze or cough, are gone. Then after another hour, one-half of that half is gone, and so forth. During the SARS outbreak, scientists discovered that a patient with diarrhea caused an infection in someone else 600 feet (200 yards or meters) away! The intestinal and fecal tract likely holds the key on how covid is transmitted and it is never mentioned on television.

Coronavirus likes less humid conditions that is why it survives better in the winter when the air is dryer. Australia has their hands full down under now imposing lockdowns again as Victoria and parts of Melbourne see increasing infection rates.

During talking, sneezing, coughing and blowing your nose, virus droplets may be expelled. Of course larger droplets do not linger in the air all that long and drop out to a surface or to the floor. Typically, the small virus particle will hitch a ride on a water or other droplet. This combined particle is a larger micron diameter so the masks, to get back to the point from above, that on the surface do not appear to be a good choice against the virus, do a good job in removing the particles before you inhale. The larger combined particle does not fit through the mask. The N95 masks are 90% to 95% effective. Keep in mind that the fit of the mask is also key since if there is a side opening, the mask is basically useless as the light particle will come in the side unimpeded.

Complicating matters is that the combined, say water and virus particle, floating in the air, may remain airborne longer as the water droplet evaporates and the weight of the combined particle lessens. The diameter also lessens opening up a greater possibility for the tiny virus particle to infiltrate your mask and mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth). Masks may not be the be all end all but, as dear ole departed Mom would say, “every little bit helps.”

The analysis becomes more interesting. There are anecdotal studies, some from the filthy Chinese communists, that indicate an absence of covid particles in the air of a room where an infected patient is being treated. This is surprising especially with patients receiving intubation and so forth. The interesting aspect of a few studies is that aerosol virus particles are being detected on and around toilets. Fecal matter is a serious transmitter of the virus but this fact is rarely discussed by the medical and political media. A Chinese study indicates that nearly 30% of the cases either began or were transmitted via fecal matter (airborne virus particles expelled during the bathroom process).

Let your mind run loose with these facts. How come everyone going to the grocery and dollar stores, like pre-covid, the last few months have not contracted the virus for the most part? Why are camps breeding grounds for the virus? A camp in Georgia was shutdown after two-thirds of the children, over 200 kids, contracted the virus even though most followed the mask and social distancing guidelines. What do you do when you are stuck in an office building all day working, that you do not usually do, say, when you stop into a grocery store, dollar store, bank or post office? Yes, take a dump, or to be more diplomatic, visit the little boy’s or little girl’s rooms.

The major transmission mechanism of the virus, or at least a big reason for the covid spread, may be the fecal matter and mainly public restrooms. Perhaps the reason many of us do not contract the virus is because we wear the masks and social distance, however, more importantly, we do not use the public facilities. The doctors and scientists should, they probably are, asking about the bathroom habits of infected individuals including the restrooms visited during the last two weeks before the infection.  

The pattern is uncannily accurate when placed against the backdrop of current virus outbreaks. India is well known for its lack of infrastructure including electricity, water and sewage. It makes sense that the infections are out of control; many transmissions likely involve fecal matter or the aerosols emitted from the fecal matter. Ditto Bangladesh and other nations.

Think about nursing homes. Each single or double patient room has a bathroom and if you ever spent time at a senior’s home, diarrhea and fecal accidents are standard daily fare. It is easy to understand how the nursing homes are breeding grounds for the virus and it is not only the patients getting sick with the virus but also the nurses and healthcare workers that have to clean up the fecal messes. God bless those nurses some that become infected with the virus.

Prisons are petri dishes for covid. In a jail cell, the crappers are right next to the bunks so any aerosols ejected from the anus of a coronavirus-infected bunk mate are floating around that jail cell and perhaps adjacent cells for a while. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time.

When using the restroom, how many of you immediately rip off the mask after sitting on the porcelain throne, pull out your smartphone, and take care of some business, like texting your girlfriend, as you take care of business? This is the worst thing possible since the person’s cheeks before you may have been laden with covid. Aerosols may be floating around inside the stalls and restrooms. People are combing and brushing their hair and enjoying a couple minutes in a private place without a mask, unfortunately, it is the worst place to go without a mask. Studies show that flushing the toilets, that big whoosh sound, may actually expel droplets contaminated with covid that will linger in that stall area for perhaps an hour.

Back to the camps. Everyone has been to a national or state park and had to use the typically-outdated facilities. You can smell the stench, especially on a hot August day, and one must hold their breath to use the facilities. Picnic and meeting hall events offer similar restroom facilities. No wonder all those kids became sick at camp; they probably got ill from contact in the restrooms and it had little to do with masks or social distancing.

What do many people use on beaches, at concerts and at sporting events? Port-a-johns. Those smelly closets of fecal stink are sometimes a necessity. You hold your nose and get in and out as fast as possible but there are likely many infections occurring in the US from these portable toilets. Are the cities, counties and states monitoring these restrooms? Probably not; they are too busy telling everyone to use a mask and social distance. A construction workers only choice for bowel relief is in a port-a-john.

In meat packing facilities and agriculture facilities, workers use the restrooms then handle the meats moving down a common conveyor belt. Studies have also shown how virus droplets can be carried along with shoes. The floor is a common landing area so if there was any time that you do not want your kids to throw a tantrum and roll around on the supermarket floor, it is now.

The black, Latino and Native American communities are hit harder with covid than the whites. Living conditions are tougher for the huddled masses and many families and groups share homes and apartments in large numbers. Again, there may be only one common bathroom and even though people may be using masks and staying away from each other, everyone is going to the bathroom and spraying those aerosols.

When you go to a bar or restaurant, what do you do at least once while you are there? Go to the bathroom. If you are a man over 60 years old, with a prostrate the size of a pea, you will be in that restroom three times before they serve the chocolate cake. In a bar, folks are on liquid diets, the men are pounding down brewski’s; they visit the john every 20 minutes to empty their beer bladders. There is an old saying; ‘you can never buy beer; you can only rent it’. The restroom theory works perfectly. The infections occurring at bars and restaurants are not necessarily occurring due to folks not wearing masks or practicing social distancing but instead probably more due to folks using the bathrooms. Perhaps the scientists will focus on fecal matter and public restrooms more and educate the public in this matter.

The US testing and tracing program remains a mess. President Trump insists on bragging daily about how the US testing is the best in the world. King Donnie is using the Joseph Goebbels book on propaganda where you repeat something enough times, people end up believing it. In truth, the serious outbreak in infections explained above is due to the failure of the testing and tracing program.

55% of the tests during July took over three days for results. That is a worthless program. The data collection remains suspect. An anecdotal story is that one person tested positive for covid and it was recorded as five because of the other family members, but they all tested negative. There are other stories of people receiving test results in the mail but they never took a test. There are stories that people are testing positive for three consecutive months but asymptomatic the entire time.

There are virus tests that are taking as much as, if not more than, 10 days to return the results. The test is useless at that point. The doctors and nurses will tell you to stay home until you receive the results but seriously, does anyone wait 10 days in quarantine to find out if they have a virus when they do not feel sick? No. This behavior feeds the asymptomatic spread. The outbreak in America is real despite President Trump’s daily denials. Donnie does not ever admit he is wrong. Trump is failing at providing a coordinated national plan to handle the virus especially for testing and tracing.

The positivity rate of tests should be below 10% and preferably below 5%, for an effective testing and tracing program to begin. Otherwise, like now, there are simply too many infections occurring too rapidly for a program to properly trace effectively. Here in western Pennsylvania, there is a big push to hire over one thousand tracer workers (there are currently about 700). The positivity rate from testing was over 10% a couple weeks ago but settled down to about 5% so the hope is that we can identify any new cases accurately and quickly and track down any contacts associated with the patient within a day or so. This is the way the program should work but America’s fearless leader is out on the golf course instead of developing a national plan with his sleeve’s rolled-up.

The sports teams are off and stumbling trying to salvage seasons. It’s only about the money, nothing else. The NHL (hockey) says over 2K tests are performed daily for the league and associated personnel. The NBA (basketball) is also testing extensively. Ditto MLB (baseball) but this sport appears in shambles with players contracting covid left and right. Isn’t it great in crony America, land of the have’s and have not’s, in the New Gilded Age, that the wealthy class, politicians, corporate executives, entertainers and professional athletes are given tests preferentially and without argument while the huddled masses are ignored? Mama Lucina, that runs the pizza shop at the corner of main and 3rd, is waiting for one week for the results from a test and she is not allowed to open the store until she knows the result. What a great country. No wonder crony capitalism is crumbling away during the coming months and years.

On the economy, the restaurant industry is in bad shape. The National Restaurant Association says one in four establishments will close. That sounds optimistic. They must be smoking crack the chefs gave them. An analyst for the food industry says about one in three restaurants will close this year. When it is said and done, one-half of the restaurants will be toast. The upper middle class and wealthy do not miss a beat working remotely or from home. The huddled masses, however, do not have that luxury since many jobs require physical work. As usual, the poor and disadvantaged are hammered again. The US government should make sure all poor kids have laptops so they can continue their school work. Corporations should step in as well and help their local areas.

The stock market continues floating higher since investors are happy that the Federal Reserve will provide easy money forever. Bad news is ignored since the central bankers will always step in to save the day. Humorously, people call this capitalism. There are coin shortages appearing around the United States and some reports of small bill shortages. Perhaps the masses are being trained for a future cashless society. That would truly be a shame when everyone takes on the mark of the beast and all freedom ends.

Congress, namely the democrat-led House and republican-led Senate, continue negotiations over the new stimulus bill. The democrats have a $3 trillion package on the table for 10 weeks that provides the $1200 to individuals and maintains the extra $600 per week unemployment giveaway. There is also funding for testing and schools. The democrats also want to fund state and local governments (that probably need $1 trillion just for themselves). The republicans offer a $1 trillion package agreeing to the $1200 for individuals but wanting to lower the extra unemployment benefit. The GOP (Grand Ole Party; republicans) says people are staying at home and not returning to work because they are making more on unemployment. This garbage talk always surfaces when recessions occur. In truth, many of those people have no job to go back to.

Are there people that are staying home to take advantage of more money? Sure, but not what the business owners and politicians want you to believe. People have families and if the boss asks them to come back, they will return to work. The people not returning are likely more worried about contracting the virus and giving it to the family. The republicans also want legal protection for businesses so they will not be sued if employees or people become sick after they open for business. In the middle of that mess of moving parts is a deal that will probably occur next week. The US Monthly Jobs Report is Friday, 8/7/20, so both of the corrupt political tribes may want to wait until the end of the week to see who ends up with more leverage. House Speaker Pelosi says, “Trying to combine the two bills is like trying to mate a flamingo with a giraffe’.

The $600 extra unemployment benefit ended on Friday and the moratorium on evictions also ends. People are really going to be hurting but at the same time the wealthy dance with glee as the stock market catapults ever higher each day. Fitch rating agency lowers the US to negative watch from stable citing the lack of fiscal planning but maintains the triple A rating.

The school controversy continues. Trump is all-in to open schools and universities. He touts the science that covid is not a serious threat for young folks. Trump is correct and Dr Redfield said the risk to children is low back on 7/14/20. However, the worry is that the kids bring it home to Mom and Dad and Grandma and Grandpa. This controversy is going to get crazy since the school year is approaching super-fast. Most kids are usually beginning the school year the last week of August. For households that rely on two salaries, one spouse cannot return to work until the kids are back in school.

Fauci continues saying that he expects a virus vaccine by the end of the year or early next year. People should realize that it takes a long time to develop an effective vaccine and what typically happens is doctors instead find effective treatments and/or use drug cocktails from existing medicines. Thus, coronavirus will likely have an effective treatment by year end but perhaps not a vaccine. Discussions are increasing about who should receive the vaccine first.

There is a big event starting this week which may draw huge media and public interest. Bikers will ride their Harley-Davidson motorcycles to Sturgis, South Dakota. Over 100,000 people are expected (usually about 250K attend) to enjoy the booze, bikes and broads, as Uncle Tommy, nicknamed “Chopper,” will say. Comically, this crowd tends to not wear masks. The huge motorcycle rally runs from 8/7/20 through 8/16/20. Be there or be square. “Get your motor running.” It may be a crazy event with law enforcement telling burly bikers to wear masks. The organizers likely did not call off the event because when it comes to biker’s, they would have come regardless. Sturgis is a mecca for motorcycle enthusiasts and gangs. It is time to par-tay! The fun begins Friday.

Picking up where the last article left off, and to clean up some housekeeping, several interesting comments occur over the last few days concerning the ongoing coronavirus saga. On Friday, 7/31/20, President Trump flies to Florida. As usual, he does not wear a mask as he meets with people. Great example, Donnie. Trump repeats the tired diatribe that the US has the best testing in the world and the reason there are more cases is because there are more tests. It is funny to hear him say this over and over. Of course that is true, dolt. But those are actual virus cases that need identified and treated.

Fauci hears the president’s comments about testing and immediately responds contradicting the president via the media saying, “The positivity rates are increasing, the number of cases are due to an increase in cases, there is an increase in hospitalizations and an increase in deaths.” It is hilarious because tomorrow Donnie will be making comments somewhere and opine that the only reason there are more cases is because there are more tests.

On Saturday, 8/1/20, Trump proclaims, “We are doing really well in Florida.” 256 deaths occur in the Sunshine State today the highest number since the pandemic began. Trump says, “Kids are immune” to the virus but of course that is another incorrect statement. No one is immune from the virus. WHO says there are 292,000 new cases today in the world the highest one-day total to date. Speaker Pelosi meets with Leader McConnell from 9 AM EST to 12 noon to discuss the stimulus package. Both sides say the meeting was productive but the two sides remain far apart. The demopublican and republocrat political baby blame games are in full swing.

On Sunday, 8/2/20, California reports the most deaths ever. Food banks around the country are getting very busy again as the need increases. There are likely quite a few million workers that were told that they have no job to come back to so the real worry begins for these folks. Germany reports the highest number of cases since May.

Speaker Pelosi and Doctor Birx have a cat fight. Pelosi says she does not have confidence in Birx. The doctor is asked for a comment and she defends herself and 40-plus year career without snipping back. This is the media trying to gin-up trouble. Pelosi was actually responding to a question about Trump and Birx was simply lumped in at the end of the answer in more of a guilt by association thing rather than Pelosi harshly attacking Birx. What a soap opera the coronavirus saga has become.

Lastly, to bring the press comments up to date, Birx says that the US is “in a new phase of the virus,” and that it is “extraordinarily widespread.” Birx says that COVID-19 is now “both rural and urban.” Trump chastises Birx publically for "taking the bait." He calls the doctor "pathetic." Now Trump turns on Birx. The media reports that Trump is unhappy with the characterization of a "new phase." Nope. The media misses the reason and it is glaring. She said the virus is spreading to 'rural' areas which is Trump's base. That is what likely made him mad enough to lash out at the scarf-covered female doctor; he is watching his votes wither away after such comments. Everything is about the election from Donnie's perspective.

In conclusion, for now, here are some tips to follow. Keep using masks, practicing social distancing and washing hands to keep the politicians and doctors happy. Most importantly, avoid public restrooms like the plague. If you are running errands and duty calls, you are better off to drive back home to go to the bathroom, then drive down the road again to finish your errands. At a summer camp, give thought to roughing it like the old days and go to the bathroom in the woods avoiding that common restroom area. At work you do not have much choice but to use the facilities. Simply get in and out quick, do not take your mask off and douse yourself with disinfectant upon exiting the washroom. If you provide care for a loved one, or are a caregiver, be extra careful when handling any human waste.

As mentioned previously, beef up your immune system by taking zinc, Vitamin A, Vitamin C and Vitamin D-3 daily. They are dirt cheap in price. Do this now and get in the habit of taking these supplements at mealtime each day. The zinc in your body may make all the difference if you get sick. Of course consult with your doctor first. Another tip is to prepare for the potential second, or third wave, whatever it will be, that may hit in the September-November period. Keep a lot of cash on hand, water, canned goods, etc... Make sure your vehicles are in good repair. All this type of preparation is smart. Wise ole departed Mom would say, “Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

As this missive is finished on Monday, 8/3/20, Doc Fauci appears on television saying that the coronavirus is spreading through particles in the air. Fauci says, “There certainly is a degree of aerosolization.” He says indoor enclosed spaces are worrisome. He does not mention restrooms as explained in detail above but the scientists are probably on top of it like flies on excrement. Fauci should be telling the public to stay away from public restrooms and any exposure to fecal matter. Perhaps the discussion on particle size analysis and fecal transmission provided above will help.

Note Added Monday Evening: President Trump conducts a press conference. He spends time summarizing the overall response to the pandemic and unsurprisingly gives himself a great big pat on the back, with his small hand, proclaiming, "We are doing very well." The United States is about to cross 159K deaths that is three Vietnam's (58.2K dead). What color is the sky in Donnie's world? The emperor does not realize that he is not wearing any clothes. Trump touches on different topics and stressed the future of telemedicine. He is claiming credit for expanding the telemedicine systems in the US so he figures that is a win for him in the election with the senior and rural demographic. Trump repeats the word "rural" over and over probably a half dozen times in a few minutes. Trump definitely snipped at Dr Birx this morning because she said the virus is spreading to rural areas. Note his emphasis on the word rural pounding it into Americana's head that he is the 'rural president guy'. He tries to make nice with Birx saying he spoke to her minutes earlier and she is doing a great job. Donnie views everything through the 11/3/20 election lens right now and the rural US is part of his steady voting base that he cannot afford to lose. For young folks at virtual college right now, a fun drinking game would be doing a shot each time President Trump says "rural" in the days ahead.