CRWV CoreWeave Weekly Chart; Potential Descending Triangle; Sideways Channel 70-120

Core Weave is weaving a descending triangle web. It is a bearish pattern but the CRWV bulls are fighting the pattern with all they got. The bulls pumped price higher after yearnings tagging the 120 resistance, but then receiving a slap-back, and price returned inside the descending triangle.

The stage is set for one of the bellwethers of the AI bubble. If the 70 level fails, and it was stick-saved over the last couple weeks, the vertical sides of the triangle say the stock goes to zero. Instead, if 70 fails, price will target that 40 support where the stock started a little over a year ago.

For now, there is a sideways channel at 70-120. Bears win below 70. Bulls win above 120. The middle is noise and drama. At 105 at the top rail of the triangle, watch to see if price wants to go higher and attack the 120 resistance again, or, if it falls further inside the triangle heading towards another test of the 70 baseline.

Keep an eye on the development of the descending triangle. If price breaks out higher the pattern will be nullified. However, if price retreats and loses the 70 level, there will be Hell to pay and it will probably reflect that the AI bubble has popped. Having fun yet? Una Paloma Blanca. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; S&P 500 Prints All-Time High at 7817

The rally orgy party has ran its course. Price makes a higher high, a record high at 7817 but the day is not over yet, with all the chart indicators sloping lower (negative divergence). Price is heading higher but the fuel tank is empty and even the fumes are gone. The last 65-minute segment of the day runs from 2:55 PM EST to 4:00 PM so we shall see if any programmed selling appears. Blow on it and it should fall over due to the neggie d.

Utilities and retail stocks are important now. Chips remain key, ditto copper, and both are happily in the bull camp. Volatility remains low allowing the bulls to rally stocks while throwing rotten tomatoes at the bears. The bulls are pushing higher with the SPX at 7804, not seen since before lunchtime, gunning for the 7817 again. Consumer Sentiment is on tap tomorrow but barring any happy talk from King Donnie or more AI happy talk this evening, stocks have topped-out in the 2-hour time frame.

The SPX climbs to 7806. It took Viagra at 2:30 PM EST at 7790 and swells a big 17 to 7807. What is this guy talking about? Neggie d? Sounds like voodoo. You will have to let it play out into tomorrow morning to see if the negative divergence creates the top. It should unless happy talk occurs. Whoopsies daisies. A slight pull off the top to 7803. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 8/13/26, at 3:15 PM EST: UTIL, or DJU, 1112 is extremely important for all of next week so watch to see where utes end tomorrow. Price teased 1112 so the bulls know what they have to do. The UTIL 1112 level is key now through next Friday. Write 1112 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. The new moon peaked last night. We are in the darkest overnight period of the month for a few days. If Donnie Chump is sending in troops (Marines, Seals, 82nd Airborne, Green Berets, etc...), it is going to happen over the next few days, say by Monday. Thus, the weekend will likely be major decision time for the orange head. The US has superior night vision equipment and weapons so now is the time to use them (under the cover of pitch-black darkness). Will the US take Kharg Island? Donnie said the other day to "wait and see." He said that previously and stepped up the military strikes a couple days later. Trumpski screwed the pooch in Iran. He is in way over his orange head and does not know what to do about the Strait of Hormuz mess he created. If we are sending troops in, it should happen any day. If we get to Tuesday and this did not happen, the new moon does not occur for another month, and it is highly unlikely that Trumpski will ever commit ground troops to remove the radical Islamists regime that he said was the reason he went to war on the very first night. It's now or never. Elvis sings It's Now Or Never. SPX back up to 7805.

Note Added Thursday, 8/13/26, at 4:04 PM EST: The SPX prints an all-time closing high at 7799.01 and all-time closing high at 7816.70. WTIC crude oil is at 81.11 and Brent is at 86.89. UTIL ends the session at 1110. Utilities are key tomorrow and early next week. The ball is in King Donnie Chumpski's court.

Note Added Saturday, 8/15/26: The neggie spankdown begins but does not gather much steam only 13 points of downside to SPX 7786. Consumer Sentiment is weak. Perhaps traders are conditioned to wait for the weekend news when King Chump will bloviate happy talk? Especially before futures begin trading Sunday evening at 6 PM EST. Retail stocks, chips and utilities were buoyant preventing a big down day. Retail yearnings are on tap next week so the rubber will meet the road about the health of the US consumer both the upper class (30 million) and lower class (300 million). There is no more middle class. Semiconductors are temperamental like a beautiful woman; one day happy the next sad. As mentioned above, UTIL 1112 is key for all of next week and voila, UTIL ends at..... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer for it..... 1112. Bulls win above UTIL 1112 while bears win below. There are two intraday highs over SPX 7800 but not yet a close above 7800. Keystone was given a "SPX 7.8K" hat but on the way home, a bird sh*t on the brim. Secretary Bessent may have lost his gravitas looking unsure and hesitant when he proclaims that an economic whirlwind will be placed on Iran. A plan to try and seal off Iran is stupid. Any goods, food, water, etc.., will go to the IRGC and their families. Then the pictures of famine will appear on television screens showing the Iranian people starving in the streets. King Donnie Trumpski will be blamed. Chump is in over his orange head and must be trying to put the whole Iran mess on hold until after the mid-term elections in 11 weeks but it is always stupid being guided by politics instead of doing what is strategically right. Or, is it a ruse, and Bessent's nervousness indicates that he is not a good actor? We will find out tonight or tomorrow night. Is Bessent out there talking economic blockade but it is to keep Iran off guard while we go in with forces this weekend? It does not look that way but it would be a masterful stroke albeit one that then kicks off a prolonged war period to remove the radical Islamist regime on the ground (not likely; Trump looks like he wants to cut and run). Chump bloviates that he will declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. Why does he say such dribble? It is diarrhea of the orange mouth that cannot stop running. Even as a feeble old guy in his 80's, he feels a need to bloviate, brag, boast and embellish even about the most trivial and meaningless items and news stories. It is funny, odd, pathetic and pitiful all at the same time. Of course those suffering from TSS (Trump Sycophant Syndrome) will say he was only joking about the strait and all that rot. The TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) folks will be clutching their pearls about how Chump wants to take over the Strait of Hormuz. Anyhoo, the SPX 2-hour chart, and the daily chart, and the weekly chart, are all in negative divergence across all chart indicators. The SPX monthly chart is in neggie d except for the MACD line (we are at, or very near, within a month or two, of a historic stock market top). Happy Iran talk and happy AI talk can keep stocks buoyant. We will see if the bears got any juice in the week ahead. If utilities fall, the bears will be in good shape, and then weaker retail stocks and chips will help, and then a higher VIX will seal the deal for lots of downside ahead. The bulls need to rally utilities out of the gate Monday and they will maintain sideways and buoyant stocks. WTIC oil 82.40. Brent oil 88.52.

UTIL or DJU Utilities Weekly Chart; Price Collapses Below 50-Week MA at 1124 Forecasting Trouble for the Weeks Ahead

The bullish sentiment is rampant these days. Comically, any tiny pullback in stocks is immediately met with more bullishness and a celebration that you could get in long at a slightly better price. People say trading stocks is easy. All you do is buy and watch it go up; it always goes up. As you hear these comments, you think back at the dotcom bubble top with the same sentiment. Also, young folks, say under 40 years old, do not remember bad recessions; they never lived through one, except for covid. That is mind-blowing.

The COVID-19 pandemic was different since it was a forced shutdown of the entire economy by two idiots, Trumpski and Fauci, except for the crony capitalists at the top that control the game. Many, perhaps the majority of stock market participants these days, have not lived through an economic recession. Lots of folks are brainwashed to be positive and optimistic no matter what, like little robots, and that adds to the overall euphoria and excessive bullish optimism. The put/call ratios drop again verifying the party atmosphere. Ditto other sentiment indicators at record bullishness. The Uber driver said he took an entire paycheck and bot SPCX. Aunt Tillie, that was the town librarian, took her entire life savings to the broker in town and he put it in NVDA stock.

But it is crazy times right now. Utilities throw off an ominous signal last week professing doom and gloom at our doorstep and this negativity is ready to take hold for weeks and months to come. Huh? Look at the stock market going to the moon. What is this guy smoking? That is the oddity, folks. 

Utes are in a weekly downtrend based on the closing price from 15 weeks ago and this metric for the week ahead is 1157. For the week of 8/17/26, 1112 is the key price to watch. With utilities falling down to 1098, that is painting a rotten picture ahead. Usually, when utes collapse like this, already in a weekly downtrend, and then taking out the 50-week MA at 1124, the trap-door, the stock market will follow lower with utes, or in close order within a few weeks. In addition, the behavior above opens the door to a crash scenario for US stocks going forward.

It is insanity, right? The utilities are a signal telling you to batten down the hatches and brace for bad stuff going forward but no one pays attention or hears the ute siren call because they are too busy partying with the band playing super loud. It is strange times. Something has to give.

UTIL 1157 and UTIL 1124 are key for the week ahead. If price remains below, it forecasts bad stuff ahead for stocks. For the following week, UTIL 1112 and UTIL 1124 will be key. Therefore, watch price as the week ends on 8/14/26. If price remains below 1112, the doom and gloom forecast is on and gaining steam. If price ends the week ahead above 1112, you will know the fix is in with a stick-save and the market masters are propping up utilities to prevent the negativity on tap. These are tricky times. Surrender by Cheap Trick. Live from Budokan! (Japan) Watch your wallet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/15/26: UTIL ends the week at 1112. Of course it does. That is the key bulll/bear line in the sand for next week. If UTIL drops below 1112 and heads lower under 1100, that likely seals the deal for pain and misery for the stock market in the weeks and months ahead. Bulls need to rally utes out of the gate on Monday to keep the stock market party going.

SPCX SpaceX Daily Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence

SpaceX remains the popular girl at the summer party. It remains a babe in the woods technically but the daily time frame is finally starting to provide hints on going forward. Here is the prior SPCX chart and technical analysis. Here is the IPO drama when the rocket company crashed and burned.

Price tumbles lower as SPCX receives bad press, and the failed rocket launch did not help especially with the stock debuting, but that was then, and now it is rock n roll time. Rock n Roll Is King. The green lines show the falling wedge pattern that is bullish. Price violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band was on the table and that occurs. 

However, yearnings were on tap last week and that knocked the newbie stock backwards down to the price lows again. Since price is making a matching or lower low, the chart indicators can be assessed for positive divergence and that remains in full swing (the green lines for the indicators). Possie d launched the stock 2 days before yearnings and there was no reason technically for it to come back down on the daily basis. It was good for its possie d rocket launch that occurs.

Despite the yearnings failing to create positivity and price dropping, all it did was confirm the strong and universal positive divergence in the daily time frame, and boom, she launches higher again as expected. The chart indicators remain long and strong so SPCX should continue the rally for a few days. Simply watch to see when it forms neggie d and you will know when the top is in on the daily basis. The stochastics and money flow were oversold agreeable to a rally that is occurring.

Price will likely target the upper band at 140. Of course, it will want to touch the 135 IPO price since it is in the neighborhood now at 133. The 150 price is where it started trading so that is a key number and you can see the solid overhead price resistance at this level from June and July. If the 150 is tagged, that would be well above the standard deviation top line so price would likely want to relax back down a bit from there. The 20-day MA at 120-121 is key and price will likely want to come back for a back kiss at some point forward. That will result in a bounce or die scenario and the chart is very positive in the daily time frame.

The RSI is above 50% crossing up into bull territory. Ditto the stochastics. The Aroon is interesting with the red line showing that the SpaceX bears are firmly convinced that SPCX stock will continue dropping. No surprise there, right? The green line shows that nearly all the SPCX bulls do not have any confidence in the stock price recovering; they are bulls sitting in the bear camp listening to sad campfire stories about Challenger. The Aroon is a contrarian indicator. With everyone on the bear side of the boat, that is another bullish indication for the stock to rally (the crowd is typically wrong).

SpaceX would be expected to continue to rally in the daily time frame for a few days forward. Traders may change their tune and become excited about SPCX again and shoot it to the moon. That 150-170 channel is interesting. The weekly chart does not have any technicals yet so the weekly basis cannot be gauged yet. The money was made over the last couple days by savvy day-traders that played the possie d. She may rally going forward and then find a home inside that 150-170 channel for a few weeks. It is still an infant technical-wise so it will need more time to provide technical lines and patterns that can be assessed.

Keystone is not in SPCX right now long or short. It can be chased here and will probably provide some additional gains for long traders but keep an eye out as the negative divergence will form so you can git outta Dodge while the gittin' is good. Ground control to Major Tom. Space Oddity. Take your protein pills and put your helmet on. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/15/26: SPCX rallies to 149.60 on Wednesday now at 140 on the dot. The weekly chart still does not have any technicals and it will be interesting to see where the 20-wk MA is at (this corresponds to a 100-day MA not yet on the chart). SpaceX remains an infant stock. On the daily chart above, the RSI, MACD, stochastics and money flow all slump over with price the last couple days. That is not neggie d since price is not making another high. The MACD line remains long and strong so it want a higher high at or above 149.60. When price comes up to 150-ish, watch the indicators to see if they are all neggie d so you know a top is in for the daily time frame. The rally on the daily basis started on Thursday, 8/6/26, receiving the possie d rocket launch. Probably back up to 150 early in the week ahead and simply look at the chart (for universal neggie d to form across all indicators) to know if it has topped out in the daily time frame. Keystone is currently not in SPCX long or short.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Overbot; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation; Historic Stock Market Top Saga Continues

There is lots of talk from big-shots these days about a major top. No one was talking that way as the top formed when the year started. The put/calls and other metrics continue showing complacency and fearlessness in the stock market with traders and investors willing to buy any dip. It feels a lot like 1999. The difference is that you have ongoing Iran War hype where King Donnie is manipulating oil prices, and thereby the stock market, as well as the ongoing AI and semiconductor orgy party.

JPM CEO Jamie Dimon says margin debt is at an all time high (like 1999). Not a day goes by without seeing a new story about Michael Burry calling a major top. He is a fundamental analysis guy that digs deep into the data and numbers. There is no need for that. Simply let the charts tell you when the top is in. Keystone has been describing and monitoring this potential historic top since the end of last year so it is about a 10-month saga. The blue circle is all you have to watch to know when the historic top is in place; it may be right now this month. Let's take a look at the tops in recent years.

The top to start 2022 was an easy call. Price prints the matching or higher high so the chart indicators can be assessed and everything was in negative divergence (red lines sloping down as price slopes up). There is no more fuel in the tank so bloop, the SPX collapses on the monthly basis. The RSI and stochastics were overbot agreeable to a pullback.

Markets bottom in October 2022 and begin this long 4-year AI orgy rally. Then the top was described as 2025 started. It was firm neggie d and worthy of the top call but you can see how the MACD line was more flattish. Stocks drop into April 2025 when they are stick-saved again.

Then the top forms to start this year and again, the chart is in full neggie d but that temperamental MACD line remains flattish rather than sloping lower to clearly display neggie d. Keystone called that top with the help of the SPX weekly and daily charts that were cooked with neggie d so you knew stocks would drop on the weekly basis, and the negative divergence above also helped. However, the MACD just does not want to give-in instead wanting to leave the door a hair ajar for more upside on the monthly basis.

That brings us to the end of April. The thin maroon lines show the MACD once again topped-out with the other indicators so the historic top has finally arrived. Keystone had one caveat, however, and that was the MACD line that still may want to sneak higher, and it did. At the same time, we have the daily King Donnie war hype that sends oil prices lower and stocks higher and the ongoing AI, tech and chip orgy. That creates this lofty perch for the last 4 months.

Right now, price makes a higher high in fact, a new all-time high at 7793.68 on 8/5/26 and a new all-time closing high at 7736.52 on 8/4/26. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was disinvited to the summer party at the country club, the indicators can be assessed for neggie d, that remains in place, except for the pesky MACD line (blue circle). This is all you have to watch to know when the historic top is in place. It could be this month.

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a trip back to the middle band at 6658 is on the table on the monthly basis. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (price above the 10 above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200) desperately needing a mean reversion lower. The ADX shows that the SPX is NOT in a strong trend higher despite all-time record highs in price. Not only that, but the ADX shows that the trend higher is weaker than when the top formed 1-1/2 years ago.

The brown circles show distribution taking place where the smart money is sloughing off shares to the dumb money. If the investment houses are dumping shares during the happy rally times, that means Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder, Savita Sucka and Carmelita Fool are caught up in the hype buying the dips with both fists.

Okay, so enough with all that mumbo-jumbo. All anyone cares about is what is going to happen next. They attend service at the Church of What's Happening Now (a reference from many years ago). The historic top on the long-term multi-month and perhaps multi-year basis is not in until the MACD line goes neggie d. This month of August has a long way to go. If stocks give up the ghost and begin falling apart, watch the MACD. If the month ends, on Monday, 8/31/26, and September trading begins on Tuesday, 9/1/26, and the MACD line is neggie d, it is over. The historic top is in and the stock market will trail lower for many months if not years to come.

If this month ends and the MACD line still points higher, that is getting harder and harder to believe since it is already up in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down, the SPX is still going to need a month or two to place the historic long-term top (October crash?). But stick in the here and now since the long-term historic top may be in this month if the bears can create selling pressure.

So do not pay attention to all the articles and constant chatter about stocks collapsing, or going to the moon, all you have to do is watch the blue circle and you will be able to call the historic top yourself. You're So Impatient. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Channel Breakout on King Donnie and Secretary Bessent Strait of Hormuz Happy Talk; S&P 500 Prints All-Time Record High at 7794

King Donnie Chumpski rides in on his pale green horse to save the day. It is a crazy week with bazaar price action. The huge rally to new record highs is on the Iran War hype. The SPX prints an all-time high at 7758.21 and all-time closing high at 7736.52 on 8/5/26 a historic move one for the ages. King Donnie must feel that he has his big boy pants on and can rule the world manipulating markets at will.

Trumpski stopped the military action against Iran on the weekend. Do you think he told his family and crony friends that on Friday? Of course he did. They made millions. It is called crony capitalism filth. Donnie said the Strait of Hormuz would open yesterday but the minute he said that everyone knew he was talking out of his butt, and he was. What is the need for bloviating every 10 minutes? The diarrhea of the mouth. But Secretary Bessent jumps into the ring and proclaims that a deal on the strait will occur yesterday or today. Oil prices collapse on the Iran War hype sending stocks to the stratosphere.

A drop in oil will help tame some of the ongoing Trumpflation and make Fed Chairman Warsh's job a bit easier. The Fed may not worry so much about runaway inflation to the upside since oil prices are dropping faster than a prom dress at midnight. Overnight, King Donnie decrees that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz will occur today. Do you believe it? Of course not. 10 minutes went by so he needs to bloviate again.

Iran plays dumb to it all and says they are actually near a deal with Oman to control the strait going forward. At the same time, the Red Sea is now a mess that Trumpski will likely have to address. It is obvious that Donnie stopped military action because Iran was going to blow up energy infrastructure and desalination plants (that provide water) in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, etc..... Donnie flinched and that is not good for anyone's future. Trump changed the Middle East for the worse with the war adventurism. Arab states will now forever fear military attacks from Iran.

The path forward depends on the so-called deal details to perhaps be released at any time going forward. The orange channel at 7300-7600 held for months but price explodes up through like it was not even there. The diamond pattern was nullified. And the sideways symmetrical triangle that had the breakdown to the bottom channel rail at 7300, with more downside on tap, was nullified. Stocks were stick-saved by King Donnie having to stop military action due to Iranian threats against Middle East countries. Sounds like Chump may have lost the war despite the destruction to Iran?

Price jumps from below the standard deviation band to above the upper standard deviation band in only 4 days. That is wild and very rare price action. It is testimony to the Iran War  hype controlling the stock market right now specifically the status of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Red Sea.

The chart indicators remain in negative divergence but you have to give it a couple-few days since this rally move is pure momentum to the upside and first, you have to see where it stops. Is the news priced in so stocks will be sold once the Hormuz deal is announced? Or will an even bigger rally to the upside occur when the deal is announced? Donnie created a mess and it is odd that the stock market is in party mode.

Traders and investors only focus on positive news and happy talk while ignoring any negativity. It is interesting and expected behavior at a major stock market top that has been trying to form since the end of last year. The dribs and drabs of AI and chip hype, spritzed in with Iran War hype, keep the party going. Another oddity was a big up day yesterday and the VIX was also up. Very bazaar. Also, is the frenzy of money rotating into and out of the top stocks such as AAPL to MSFT to AMZN. Strange stuff.

Oddly, the Keybot the Quant robot remains short. Figure that one out? Utes, commodities and chips are controlling the stock market technically right now, but it is of little impact since King Donnie's pending Strait of Hormuz big-time deal will dictate the path forward. Maybe Trumpski needs to talk to The Gambler to receive tips on deal-making. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/6/26, at 6:21 AM EST: Stocks pull back a hair after printing another all-time record high at 7793.68. The stock market is waiting on the Iran War deal but that is an ongoing mess. Iran and Oman say they have a deal concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Where is the US? Chump continues bloviating saying the strait may now open today or tomorrow. The constant diarrhea of the orange mouth is getting old. Even Trumpski's die-hard supporters on social media are telling him to shut-up with the constant talk of a deal, and they are dying to make a deal, and all that garbage that is made-up lies. After that is repeated 50 times and it is BS each time, people stop listening and no longer take you seriously. So Donnie's Iran War mess continues. Trumpski is the modern-day Neville Chamberlain slowly leading us into WW III with his appeasement of radical Islamists. Donnie is distracted by a bunch of nonsense like the reflecting pool and Jeanine Pirro dropping the lawsuits against alleged vandals. Media and everyone is missing the boat on what is happening. The last thing that Chump did as he left the Whitehouse with Melania at the end of his first term was to pardon Pirro's husband. Now in the second term, he gives her that top job as the top dog in DC. Donnie thought it was understood that he owns her. Like a mob boss, he did a big favor for her and her family and she is supposed to do what he says. It is that simple. What bloviations are ahead for today? Donnie can be a Ramblin' Man but with his orange mouth not with his feet. Dickey owned that song. Those Delta women think the world of me.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side yesterday at SPX 7403. The choppy whipsaw slop continues. Utilities and volatility matter. Bears need VIX to remain above 19.18 while bulls need it below.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Sideways Channel; Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Start of Important Tech Earnings Tomorrow

The SPX daily chart shows the diamond pattern that has been interesting to watch but did not lead anywhere. Price broke out higher but did not confirm an all-out breakout above 7610-ish. The SPX then leaks lower, chopping sideways, extending the right-hand side of the diamond pattern. More importantly now, the brown sideways symmetrical triangle is in play.

Note how price broke up and out of the sideways triangle but could not poke above the rigid resistance of the upper rail of the sideways orange channel. The SPX then staggers lower, returning inside the triangle and now testing the bottom rail of the triangle.

Sideways triangles typically exhibit an interesting behavior. If they break out higher, like above, but then fail, and return to the inside of the triangle, what follows next is typically a failure out the bottom of the triangle. Conversely, if price would fail out the bottom of the triangle, but then rally again and return to the inside of the triangle, price will typically then pop out the top and rally. Currently, we have the former situation.

However, there are a lot of stock market crosscurrents right now. The green lines show positive divergence for the chart indicators for the last four days of equal price lows. The MACD line wants to see another lower low in price, that favors the outcome explained in the previous paragraph, but the other indicators would like to see price bounce now.

The Federal Reserve rate decision is tomorrow when Wizard Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade. Also, key tech earnings begin after the closing bell and continue on Thursday. This is a crap-shoot. Anything can happen.

The vertical side of the triangle pattern is from 7250 to 7625 so that is 375 points difference. Sometimes, it is also wise to look at the vertical side that is one touch in and that is from 7275 to 7600 a 325 difference. In France, pronounced Fraunce, where men comment on the differences between men and women and proclaim, "viva le differaunce!" Thus, if price breaks down from the triangle from here, call it 7390, the downside target would be 7015 to 7065. Conversely, a breakout up and out of the triangle at 7460 would target 7785 to 7835.

The blue line through the heart of the channel at 7440 carries clout. So does the triangle and channel lines and then the June lows and highs. Also the overhead resistance at the 50-day MA at 7470 and 20-day MA R at 7492.

The drama will likely start to intensify in the afternoon tomorrow. Price begins the day at 7429. Bears win if price stays below 7440 and then fails the triangle at 7390. That will usher in negativity and a test of the lower rail of the channel at 7360, and then the next test is 7270. If that fails, the door is wide open to 7015-7065.

If there is happy talk tomorrow, and the SPX recovers above 7440, the bulls will start to puff their chests out. If price breaks up and out of the triangle at 7460, a rally will be in full swing. Price will next target the upper channel rail at 7570 that was formidable resistance 2 weeks ago. The next test would be 7610 and then onward and upward to 7785-7835.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so a move back up to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 7492, is on the table. You may see this occur tomorrow morning as traders bide time until Prophet Warsh comes down from On High with the tablets. The triangle keeps squeezing in tight so there will be a winner and loser decided this week. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

King Donnie Chump remains a loser with the Iran War. Trumpski stopped the 2-week bombing campaign as officials were concerned about munition stockpiles. Iran then says it will stop hostilities if the US remains quiet. Of course, Donnie then proclaims that Iran wants to make a deal, folks, they are begging to make a deal, they are saying sir, please stop the bombing, we will do what you want. What a joke. An orange-headed joke. A poll shows that 3 in 5 Americans think Chump is bloviating and lying when he spews about the Iran War. He is not fooling anyone most of all Iran.

Everything is different going forward, folks, we are in the new Global Drone War Era ushered in by Donnie Chump. If stocks collapse, or if yields pop tomorrow on the Fed news, Donnie may panic again and force some type of market action saying the bond market is yippie. A 30-year yield above 5.20% would be problematic. We need Caroline to sing Yip Yip Yow.

This news hits right now in real-time. Iran launches a surprise missile attack against US forces. Yeah, sure, Donnie, Iran is begging for a deal. Sure they are, chump. It sounds like King Donnie is the one begging for a deal. The US cannot bomb Iran into oblivion and send 90 million people into famine. At the same time, Iran has the killer drones, and missiles, to keep firing at US forces and control the Strait of Hormuz. Donnie Chump is in over his orange head and does not know what to do.

The trading week should heat up starting after lunch tomorrow. The Fed news and then tech yearnings the next 2 days will either exalt the stock market opening the door to a party orgy towards SPX 8K, or, open the gates of Hell and usher-in comeuppance time like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000. Chips are taking the pipe these days. If you bot into the semiconductor stocks on the long side over the last 3 months, you are either flat or have lost money. You chased the shiny object like a chump, and now you are bag-holding sucka. You were the bigger fool. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:05 PM EST: Brent crude oil opens for trading popping over +3% due to the Iran attack. Note how Iran staged that attack knowing that the oil markets would open minutes later sending oil prices higher. Iran is playing Donnie Chump like a Stradivarius. You surely recognize Pachelbel's Canon in D.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 7/29/26, at 8:49 AM EST: King Donnie wakes up on the wrong side of the bed, puts his big boy pants on, and proclaims that he will "give Iran a beating" in retaliation to the surprise attack. Good luck wit dat, as they say in the Bronx. Iran knows Trumpski will respond that way and does not care. It still does not register in the orange mind that Iran has 10 million religious fanatics that will gladly die as martyrs. They are not driven by hotels, beach resorts, and girls in bikinis. They are radical Islamist terrorists and religious zealots. Hopefully, Donnie can figure a way out of the mess he created. Each day, however, the Iran scab is picked and becomes further infected. Nam was a quagmire and now we have Muz. Crude oil spikes +7% on the latest bloviations. WTIC oil is at 85 and Brent at 90.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/30/26, at 8:06 AM EST: The SPX gives up the ghost and collapses out the bottom of the triangle. That pattern happens quite often where price will break up, or break down, from the sideways symmetrical triangle, only to return to the inside of the triangle and exit in the opposite direction. The next few days will tell if it holds and if stocks deteriorate. With lots of ongoing drama and yearnings this week, the chop suey will surely continue. Price may want to come back up to 74 hundo-ish for a back kiss to make sure it wants to collapse lower going forward and open the door to the 7015-7065 downside target. VIX 19.18 is key. Bears win above and bulls below. A short time ago, the VIX slips below 19.18. That is why you see the buoyancy appear in the US futures. VIX 19.18 tells you the story forward.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side at SPX 7479 yesterday. Watch utes, volatility, copper and retail stocks.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short today at SPX 7423. Retail stocks and volatility failed creating the initial downside flush but the rest of the day was a battle between utes, chips, retail stocks and volatility. Tomorrow will be interesting to see which side shows up with their game face.

Keybot the Quant