Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish as the Choppy Whipsaw Slop Continues

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side at SPX 6908. The choppy whipsaw garbage slop continues in 2026. Bulls need lower volatility to consummate the rally. Bears need weaker banks to wrestle the stock market ball back.

Keybot the Quant

Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Bitcoin Dropping Back Towards Levels Not Seen Since the Donnie Trump Election in November 2024; Bitcoin Falls to 60K on 2/5/26 Wiping Out All Gains after the Donnie Trump Election

The democrat-run media (CNN, MSNOW, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, MPR, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...) is champing at the bit to declare bitcoin at a lower price than when Donnie Trump was elected. It is all part of the divisive and scummy political game in crony America. Of course, the republican-run media (Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, New York Post, Breitbart, AM talk radio, etc...) will never utter a peep about bitcoin falling back to levels when Trumpski was elected.

Note how price fell in April 2025 with the broad stock market selloff, but it was saved with happy legislation talk from the Donnie administration. King Trump and his family are grifting off the cryptocurrency bandwagon so there is buttock-clenching occurring now as the price collapses.

Bitcoin runs up into the euphoric top at 125K and then it is all downhill from there. You can see the two-leg bear flag better and an H&S shown in blue as compared to the prior spaghetti chart. Let's call the H&S neckline at 76K since that equates to April lows and also when the orange one was elected. It is a key support level. The head is 125K so the difference is 49K, thus, if the neck at 76K fails, bitcoin would target 27K. Oh my. The Trump family will lose their shirts and be wearing barrels.

As the previous technical analysis explains, bitcoin is ready to pop with positive divergence on the daily chart but the weekly chart still needs the RSI and MACD to set up with possie d to call the bottom on the weekly basis. The monthly chart is trouble and forecasts more downside for the remainder of the year after a multi-week recovery move occurs.

On the 11/5/24 election, bitcoin was 69,360.

On 11/6/24, the day after election that Donnie Trump won, bitcoin was 75,640.

On 1/20/25, for the Trumpski inauguration, with Putin sending best wishes, bitcoin was 102,000.

On 10/6/25, at the peak of glory, bitcoin was 124,750.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, with price at 76K, and low of 72K yesterday, bitcoin punctured the support on 11/5/24, but to be fair, bitcoin should fall below 69.3K before the democrat-controlled press can write the headline that bitcoin is below where it was at the election. But, as Americans know now, both sides will lie and use the media listed above to spew their corrupt narratives. Such is crony capitalism.

Bitcoin is at 76K now. 76 Trombones in the big parade, with a 110 coronets close at hand, they were followed by .....  In the 1960's and 1970's, most US high schools had a mandatory music class for all students. Of course, boys want to be macho and are hesitant to sing, things seem different nowadays, but Mrs Ference had a way of making students overcome the fear of embarrassment, that is what it essentially is, and everyone was singing in no time. 76 Trombones from the Music Man was a standard tune most high school music/chorus classes would sing. It is easy to remember the words even after many decades. That is a glimpse into the 'old America'. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/5/26: On 2/5/26, bitcoin falls to 60,075 wiping out all of King Donnie's crypto gains since the November 2024 election.

BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; 2-Leg Bear Flag and H&S Patterns; Positive Divergence Setting Up; Bitcoin Falls to 60K on 2/5/26 Wiping Out All the Gains after the November 2024 Election

Bitcoin is the hot topic of discussion these days. Years ago, there was a chain store called Hot Topic for punk/goth rockers. Rock n' Roll High School. The bitcoin bulls have been calling the bottom in the cyber currency ever since it started puking after Keystone identified the top.

The top call was simple as Keystone explained. The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The red lines clearly show universal negative divergence on the weekly basis as price makes a higher high. She was cooked. That was the crescendo up at 125K. Bitcoin was overbot and the upper band was violated wanting a move back to the middle and lower bands. A real easy top call but as usual, no one wanted to believe the joy would end, especially the bitcoin bulls. But alas, the neggie d spankdown occurs and now bitcoin enthusiasts are sitting at the local bar drowning sorrows. Play me a song, Mister Piano Man.

The tight bands (blue arrows) told you a huge price move was about to occur on the weekly basis but the squeeze does not predict direction. Barring any happy talk news, the neggie d told the path forward and it was down the rabbit hole.

The pink lines show a potential 2-leg bear flag that may materialize. It is textbook so far the first leg from 125K to 85K that is a drop of 40K. The sideways consolidation occurs, using the 100-wk MA as support for almost 3 months, wow, and price has upwards buoyancy, it is textbook for the 2-leg bear flag pattern. The second leg begins at 95K, you can plug in your own numbers and see what you get, so the downside target to satisfy the pattern is 55K. That 100-wk MA at 87K is important; pay attention to it.

The purple lines in that spaghetti above show a H&S pattern with head at 125K and neckline at 83K so that is 42K difference. If the neckline fails, and it did, the downside target is 83K minus 42K or 41K. This downside target is the congestion zone at the end of 2023 and start of 2024.

The task now is to find the tradeable bottom on the weekly chart. The daily chart is set up with positive divergence right now and would be agreeable to a recovery rally. The daily chart may wait for the weekly chart to set up so they can then both send bitcoin higher on a sustainable multi-week rally. As price makes the lower low, the weekly chart indicators can be checked to see if positive divergence is in play (to call a bottom), or not.

The histogram and money flow are agreeable to a bounce in bitcoin going forward on the weekly basis. However, the red lines show a weak and bleak RSI, MACD and stochastics. The stochastics are in the cellar so that can be called possie d. Also, the stochastics and RSI are dipping into oversold territory so they will be agreeable to a relief rally.

The weak and bleak RSI and MACD have to turn possie d to call the bottom in bitcoin on the weekly basis. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the holiday parties, the chart needs a week or three to set up properly for the bottom. It does not mean it cannot rally before then but there is no need to guess or be a hero, simply wait for possie d and you will know the bottom is in.

Recapping, the 2-leg bear flag pattern targets 55K. The H&S targets 41K. These targets seem excessive with the chart almost set up with possie d. However, the monthly chart is a piece of garbage, negative as could be, wanting more negativity on the long-term monthly basis. This fact will disappont the bitcoin bulls because after the recovery rally on the weekly basis, she will rollover again, and then take out the lows and likely go for those lower price targets where price congestion occurred in prior years.

Trading is all about playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The daily chart is set up in a happy possie d position wanting to see bitcoin rally. The weekly chart likely needs a week or two more to set up with possie d. The RSI is already showing a bit of a flatness so with next week's low price prints, the RSI should be possie d and ready to rock price higher. That would only leave the MACD line. But it may also set up with possie d next week, simply watch it, as stated, no reason to guess.

Thus, even if you say a lot of therefore's instead of thus's, you still will not be invited to the cool parties, only the nerd parties. Last Friday night we all danced to Una Paloma Blanca. That party was a milk and cookie nerdfest. Therefore, give bitcoin a few more days, it will likely set up with positive divergence next week or directly the week after and you can pull the trigger long.

However, do not marry the trade. It will run for a few weeks higher, the middle band, the 20 MA, is at 97K and dropping, that is an upside target, but bitcoin will then roll over and die again because of the weak and bleak monthly chart. The charts will tell you the story. The lower band needs tagged at 70K and that is strong price support from 2024 so that may be her bottom on the chart above.

As a guess, again, watch the charts so you do not have to guess, bitcoin will bottom next week, then up for 5 to 8 weeks perhaps to 90K+, but then roll over and die trailing lower for the remainder of the year.

If the stock market collapses in the near term, and this is on the table, then bitcoin may collapse to those 41K-55K targets faster. Keystone is not in bitcoin and not playing any derivatives in the cyber arena right now long or short. Obviously, with the chart above, Keystone will take a look next week and maybe buy bitcoin derivatives on the long side. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/4/26 at 5:04 AM EST: Bitcoin sits at 76K on the dot. Investor and analyst Michael Burry lays a brown egg in the bitcoin Cheerios this morning. Burry says bitcoin is exposed as a 'purely speculative asset'. Ouch. "Dem's are fightin' words. Burry provides a back-handed slap to bitcoin's face so the cryptocurrency sits at 76K deciding the direction forward. The 100-wk MA at 87K is overhead resistance. Ditto the 83K-ish neckline of the H&S that should receive a back kiss going forward. On the down side, the 70K level is important support. Burry's words do not change the technical analysis above.

Note Added 2/5/26: On 2/5/26, bitcoin falls to 60,075 wiping out all of King Donnie's crypto gains since the November 2024 election.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, not too surprisingly, whipsaws back to the short side at munchtime today at SPX 6904. The banks and volatility dictate who wins.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bull side today at SPX 6974. Retail stocks, banksters and volatility are dictating stock market direction currently. Bulls need XLF above 53.99 to keep the party going. Bears need weaker retail stocks and higher volatility.

Keybot the Quant

US 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Long-Term Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Forecasts a Big Move Going Forward

The US 10-year yield is at a historic juncture. There is no more room in the apex of the sideways symmetrical triangle so it is time for the yield to make a bounce or die decision. As the thick bars show, the projected move from the triangle will be 125 to 150 bips.

The breakout higher in yields would occur from 4.30% and the daily chart is trying to have an inverted H&S pattern play out. If yield moves above 4.30% and begins trending higher, the 5.55% to 5.80% range is the upside target.

Conversely, if yield fails from the triangle, and drops below 4.05%, that targets the 2.55% to 2.80% yield range on the downside.

The 20 and 50-week moving averages are lining out sideways at 4.13% to 4.24% within the apex of the triangle; use these two metrics for an early indication on which way she's breaking.

The 200-wk MA is coming up and flattening out at 3.99%. Perhaps Fed Chairman Powell, when he speaks at 2:30 PM EST today, will tell the tale forward. Here is a link to the prior 10-year yield chart explaining the inverted H&S. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:30 AM EST: As everyone waits for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High and tell global traders how to trade, the 2-year yield is 3.57%, 5-year 3.83%, 10-year 4.24% and 30-year 4.86%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 67 bips.

Note Added 4:55 PM EST: Pope Powell's edicts are a nothing burger for yields. The 2-year yield is 3.57%, 5-year 3.83%, 10-year 4.24% and 30-year 4.86%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 67 bips.

Note Added 2/3/26 at 5:30 AM EST: January is in the bag with February off and stumbling. The 2-year yield is 3.58%, 5-year 3.85%, 10-year 4.29% and 30-year 4.92%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is up to 71 bips. Note the progression higher in yields across all durations with the upside in yields increasing as duration increases. The 50-wk MA is 4.24% so 4.29% is a 5 bip move above. Yield is teasing the 4.30% resistance that would open the door to far higher yields.

USD US Dollar 5-Minute Chart; Dollar Collapses After Donnie Trump Says He Is in Favor of a Weaker Dollar Policy

King Donnie causes disruption in the currency markets this time. Trump says he is okay with a weaker dollar spitting on the decades-long strong dollar policy touted by the US. Oh my. Whenever a president or treasury secretary was asked about the dollar, it was always a strong dollar policy. Not anymore. Paging Larry Kudlow. He is over at Fox Business these days. No one has touted the stronger dollar policy more than him, he calls it 'King Dollar', while also cheerleading the president, so it looks like Larry will abandon his economic beliefs for the sake of the president?

Donnie wants a weaker dollar to boost exports and the manufacturing sector that has been in recession for two years plus. You do not want an orange mouth, however, shooting off comments that have immediate and serious ramifications on global markets and stability. 

Trump is a wrecking ball. He is playing with fire now purposely trying to drive the US dollar lower. This rhetoric is driving gold and silver to the moon. Is the Trump family grifting off the moves? Hey Donnie Junior and Eric, I'm going to make comments on the dollar this afternoon. Okay, dad, we're on it. Like taking candy from a baby; crony capitalism filth.

You can see the immediate impact of Donnie's comments last evening around 4 PM EST, the greenback collapses from 96.25 to 95.55 a big move for Forex in a couple minutes. It is a 4-year low in the mighty dollar going back to early 2022. Calmer heads prevailed realizing it is just the orange head saying more stupid stuff, as usual, so he could get his puss on camera another day and create content for his daily presidential reality television show.

It is fascinating watching the final throes of America's corrupt crony capitalism system. The dollar stabilizes and is moving through the blue sideways channel. If the buck falls through the lower blue line, Trumpski did some damage to the dollar and he risks instability in global currency, stock and bond markets.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:33 AM EST: As everyone waits for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High and tell global traders how to trade, the USD is at 96.25.

Note Added 4:56 PM EST: As would be expected, Treasury Secretary Bessent makes the rounds this morning at the business media outlets doing clean-up in aisle four for his orange-headed boss. The treasury secretary proclaims that the US strong dollar policy remains. The greenback pops to 96.79 today and is now at 96.37.

Note Added 2/3/26 at 5:35 AM EST: The buck drops to 96.22 then recovers to 97.61.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Unbridled Optimism, Complacency, Fearlessness and Bullish Euphoria Indicates Major Stock Market Top

Hit the deck!! Take cover! She's gonna blow! The low put/call drama is ongoing to begin the year and the crescendo may be on tap tomorrow with the Federal Reserve rate decision and Chairman Powell presser. Powell is a short-timer now with only two meetings remaining after tomorrow; a meeting in March and then his swan song farewell meeting at the end of April. His term ends in May.

Nothing has changed. Like going to the dentist; you can put it off but it only results in more rotted and decaying teeth. The fuse on the stick of dynamite only has a half inch remaining (1.2 cm) and she is going to blow sky high and take the stock market to Hades.

The expectation is for the stock market to top out any day and to begin an extended downward slide. With the Fed meeting on tap tomorrow, it may serve as the catalyst to push the pile of crap over the hill. If not, it does not matter, nothing changes. If it is happy talk that wins the day, give it a few days and it will be set up again to go over the cliff. The complacency does not disappear until pain, despair and agony appears and takes its pound of flesh over the coming weeks. Gloom, Despair and Agony On Me.

As the stock market begins falling, a drop of from 200 to 1,000 SPX (S&P 500) points is expected, say, over the next month. Last year topped out the third week of February. This year, the stock market is a bloated piece of sh*t that is long overdue for a collapse due to the outrageous and unprecedented complacency. Are you ready to take a ride on that Highway to Hell? Bon is singing so it is early days. Angus has his little book bag to complete his school boy uniform trademark image he carries to this day (he would run home to play his guitar after school every day and never even take a minute to change out of his school boy uniform). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 1/28/25, at 9:30 AM EST: Ding, ding, ding. The SPX tags 7K on the opening bell. The new all-time high is 7002.28 ahead of the Fed decision and Chairman Powell presser.

The Keystone Speculator's Labor Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A LABOR RECESSION FOR 28 MONTHS AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 28 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; 2 YEARS AND 4 MONTHS!!

The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession in addition to the labor recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot (it is nowhere in sight). The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) occurs because consumer spending by the wealthy Americans, that benefited from the 15 years of Fed money-printing, remains robust and the AI hype and excitement, the chip orgy, also delays the overall US recession.

How can this be? For many decades, if America is in a labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, it is guaranteed to be in an overall US economic recession. Not now. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype sends stocks to the moon. The easy money provided by the Fed and Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic creates inflation and jobs galore. People could not spend the free money fast enough, like pigs feeding at the trough. Employers begged for workers during 2022-2024 but not so much anymore.

Company layoffs were high in October as managers try to clean house before the holidays. Smart businesses know not to lay people off during the holidays so if you keep your job through Halloween, you are likely safe until the new year. Well, 2026 is in full swing now and company managers are meeting in conference rooms deciding whose head should be lopped off next. Keep your head down to avoid the corporate scythe.

The obedient mice remain in their closet-sized cubicles pretending to work even if they are not that busy in case the boss walks by. No need for them to have an excuse to lay you off. Then the dreaded desk phone rings. Even the coworkers in the other cubicles know what that telephone ring means. The boss wants you to come to the his/her office so it is time to walk the Green Mile to the unemployment line. Heads pop up above the cubicle walls watching their friend walk, with head held low, to the gallows. They know his fate. Another One Bites the Dust. And another one's gone, and another one's done, another one bites the dust.

The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow with the rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference on tap tomorrow afternoon. The Fed is expected to leave rates on hold. That will create another hissy fit from King Donnie.

The Fed's mandate is price stability (rates) and maintaining maximum employment. Powell has been leaning the message towards concerns for the labor market so rate cuts win the day but the messaging will likely now transition back to an equal concern for both mandates.

The rise in precious metals (gold, platinum, silver, etc...) due to Donnie's daily theatrics and economic uncertainties, and rise in base metals (silver, copper, zinc, nickel, etc...) due to the AI and data center build-out, and steady increases in consumer prices at Walmart and the local grocery store as tariffs are sloughed-off on the American consumer, inflation may buoy higher faster than anyone thinks currently. It would be a good choice to stand back and pause on rate cuts even if it means everyone has to listen to King Donnie throw another temper tantrum for a few days because he wants perpetual low rates (he is a real estate guy that worships debt).

The unemployment rate popped to 4.3% in August 2024, almost a year and a half ago, and the thinking was that it would take a big jump higher as typically occurs once a recession takes root. Alas, instead, the blue line shows the rate bumping along sideways after that using the 4.3% as a resistance ceiling.

Not anymore. Resistance becomes support and the unemployment rate pops to 4.5% with the December data. The data collection and releases are messed-up due to the government shutdown in the Fall. Again, the thinking is that the overall recession is finally here (the US has been in a labor, manufacturing and housing recession for over 2 years running) but alas, it is staved-off by the AI orgy party, Fed easy money, and ongoing consumer spending by the wealthy class.

The January data a couple weeks ago was a 4.4% unemployment rate so a slight retreat. The rate is back-testing that critical 4.3% line in the sand.

Looking at Keystone's metrics, for the next US Monthly Jobs Report on 2/6/26, if the unemployment rate falls to 4.3%, remains at 4.4%, or comes in hotter at 4.5% and higher, all these outcomes continue the ongoing labor recession. The unemployment rate needs to drop to 4.2% and lower to signal the first step into producing a labor recovery.

The stage is set. The jobs circus is back in town next week. If you listen real close, you can hear the calliope music. The crony capitalism system has become a caricature of itself.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A HOUSING RECESSION FOR 37 MONTHS

The US is in a housing recession for 37 months (3 years and 1 month). The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet (although the chart above shows the green and red lines converging). Are you a homeowner or a home moaner? People do not want to leave their current home, that has a low mortgage rate, for a new home with a bigger monthly payment. The lower availability of homes on the market hurts the first-time homebuyers.

The hedge funds have been buying-up homes and multi-units and renting them out for several years. Lately, analysts proclaim that less than 1% of all homes purchased are by hedge funds. That is stupid talk. How did they analyze data? Or did they? Did they just do a search on some hedge fund names and then call it a day? There are always shadow companies doing things on the slide. Joe Fafooshnik Real Estate does not sound like a hedge fund, although it may be tied to one.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart as this series continues until a housing recovery begins but rumor has it that Ricky Recovery is partying with Godot.

As mentioned above, the green and red lines are converging. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, and therefore, and hence, and conversely, or maybe that is just Keystone. Looking at the metrics, a projection can be made for the next Housing Starts release that is 2/6/26, but who knows about the date these days as data tries to get back on track after the government shutdown in the Fall. If Housing Starts are 1.340 million units or higher, that is enough to begin a US housing recovery. No one would be happier than King Donnie. If, however, the Starts come in at 1.335 million units or lower, the housing recession continues.

It sounds like Punxsutawney Phil. Groundhog Day is Monday, 2/2/26, in Keystone's neck of the woods in southwestern Pennsylvania, and if Phil sees his shadow, it means 6 more weeks of winter are ahead. If Phil does not see his shadow, spring is around the corner. You can watch early Monday morning to see Phil's prediction.

Anyhoo, the last time that Housing Starts were at that high a number (1.34 million units and higher) was back in August so it is likely that the housing recession may linger a while longer. It is also the dead of winter so construction activity will not pick up for another couple months. It would be bad if there was a solid deterioration with Housing Starts down to 1.2 million units, or 1.1 million or a million, since that would forecast bad times ahead with a worsening housing recession and likely overall US recession at the doorstep.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession for over 3 years, a labor recession for over 2 years, and a manufacturing recession/slump ongoing for 3 years? What special times. In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing (with Godot) and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big party. The banksters were partying giving away loans for houses like candy.

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. Time will tell if Godot arrives bringing the overall US recession. If consumer spending continues slipping away (after the holiday goose), you will say hello to the Godot Recession and the ongoing housing, labor and manufacturing recessions will say they told you so (for years). It is definitely a different animal this time around.