SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Multi-Month and Potentially Multi-Year Stock Market Top At Hand if MACD Cooperates

This juncture is reminiscent of the end of April. All the chart indicators on the SPX monthly chart went neggie d identifying a major long-term top but there was one caveat. The MACD line topped out dead flat. This qualifies as negative divergence (price is higher) but the stock market may want to play around for another month or two with a jog move to firmly lock in the neggie d with the MACD undeniably sloping lower.

Whazzat? Whozzit? What did he say? That sounds like Greek to me. The Sound of Silence. Artists rarely receive accolades for singing cover songs and they never sound as good as the original. Disturbed received a thumbs up from Paul Simon about their rendition of the song; that would be a highlight of any music career. There is only one language that is universal worldwide among all peoples. Music. It is the only one. The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls, and tenement halls.

Anyhoo, the maroon lines above show the neggie d at the end of April that should have started the long-term smackdown. Alas, here comes the calvary with the AI albatross being hyped for the umpteenth time and also happy talk about the end of the Iran War pumping stocks higher. Equities stagger around these record highs and may have already placed the major and historic top this month.

Everything hinges on the MACD line (green circle). The SPX price prints a matching or higher high in June versus May so the indicators can be assessed for negative divergence to see if it is time to call the top. The red lines are set up just like the maroon lines were at the end of April. All the chart indicators are in neggie d, and the RSI and stochastics are overbot also wanting a pullback, except for that pesky MACD line. It is like herding kittens and the MACD line is not yet cooperating. If you squint, and blink a few times, the MACD line in that green circle is still sloping higher by a single hair. The bulls know how to stretch out a party.

But the above is background for your homework assignment. Obviously, you have to watch that green circle like a hawk on Monday and Tuesday. June ends at 4 PM EST Tuesday so this month's candlestick, and the MACD line, will be cast in concrete, and July trading begins on hump day when a new monthly candlestick will begin. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why Keystone was shunned by neighbor Karen and not invited to the block party, The Coverups showed up instead, the next 2 days tell you if the major top is locked in, or not. The bears have 2 days to turn the MACD line either flat or sloping down, and the top can be called, and the multi-month and multi-year spankdown will begin.

What happens if that pesky little MACD cat remains sloping higher. That means there are still a few fumes in the tank to take price higher again. However, considering that the universal neggie d had already displayed at the end of April and all those chart indicators remain negative, the POS can fall apart at any time. It is exciting stuff. It would be a good forecast to say the long-term multi-month and potentially multi-year stock market top is in and if not, it will be in July.

Just think, you are witnessing a major and historic top that will be talked about for decades to come. You are seeing it unfold in real-time and watching the top call come into view as it occurs. The next 2 days are bigtime important and the first candlestick for July on Wednesday will also reveal a lot about the chart.

Are you starting to understand why Keystone is telling all of you idiots, especially you young idiots, to get out of you long positions? There are many months of downside ahead for equities and considering that we are crossing over into the second half of the year, that weakness in stocks that will begin at any time should run at least into 2027. Probably anyone that bot stocks over the last couple years will be flat or have lost money a few months or a year from now. If you were smart, get out of your longs and let that dough sit in your brokerage account and enjoy the summer. Take a look at things in the Fall to see what happened. Let everyone else, especially the smart money, hold the bag.

Price violates the upper band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA at 6486, rising sharply, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 5359 rising sharply. When stocks start falling apart, the 10-mth MA at 6971, and rising, soon to be 7000, is an early warning signal that the stock market is in major trouble. If the 12-mth MA at 6876 and rising, call it 6900+, fails, equities fall into a cyclical bear market when historic damage and carnage will occur.

This is fun. When do you get a chance to see economic and stock market history occur right before your eyes in real-time? Watch that MACD line. The Strokes have a new one out called Going Shopping with Julian going overboard with the AutoTune. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities, SPX S&P 500, XLP Consumer Staples, and XLY Consumer Discretionary Daily Charts; America's Crony Capitalism System Created the Have's and Have-Not's

It is interesting how the utilities and broad stock market have been moving inversely for the last few months. It is not unexpected. Utes were always called the widows and orphans sector because it was safer but the data center buildup changes the landscape. Nonetheless, despite the new AI age, that feels a lot like it always did despite artificial intelligence in its fourth breakout year, traders still view utes as a flight to safety if the stock market gets into trouble.

The big picture shows utilities rallying from the start of this year until the end of March and early April. The SPX tumbles lower during this period and that is the bottom where stocks rally from April to the start of June. The utilities sell off while the stock market rallies into June. From the June stock market top until now, at the end of the month, utilities are rallying and stocks are soggy. Will this continue spelling trouble ahead for stocks?

You can see how the SPX is overextended above the 20-day MA above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. The same behavior occurred during the top earlier this year. The 150-day MA continues sloping higher indicating that the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern. Trouble is at hand when the 150 flattens and then rolls over. This was occurring in the springtime but of course, the stock market was stick-saved early April. The wealthy must protect their money.

The XLP and XLY ETF's provide insight into the new America, the New Gilded Age, a la the 1920's. The US is the land of the have's and have-not's. The middle class was eliminated starting with Ronnie Ray-gun busting the unions in the 1980's and sending the middle class jobs overseas to take advantage of the slave labor. This sent stock prices to the moon (lower expenses) making the wealthy filthy rich but gutting America's middle class that lost their jobs and did not benefit from the stock rallies since they did not own stock. The jobs that built the middle class neighborhoods are now gone creating the moral decay in society.

The US population of 330 million consists of 30 million rich folks at the top, the wealthy elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the elite (they live in McMansions), that control the rigged US crony capitalism game. The remaining 300 million common people, the peons, the have-not's, at the bottom are struggling to pay their bills and survive each month. They are wiped out by the cost of gasoline and food.

The wealthy class, that were then further enriched by the Federal Reserve's money printing during the last two decades, are wondering why everyone is so glum (the Fed's easy money monetary stimulus for over 20 years flows into the stock market boosting prices higher making the wealthy class, that own stocks, more filthy rich, while one-half of Americans, that do not own a single share of stock, are shafted again receiving no benefit; the piggish shame is that the Fed knows this occurs and does it anyway since these corrupt public servants are paid off with lucrative speaking engagements, sponsored by the Wall Street banksters, once they leave office; are you starting to understand crony capitalism filth?).

Capitalism does not exist. It is only referenced in theoretical business text books but never exists in practice due to human greed (corruption) and non-transparency. Bailing out banks, not allowing businesses to go bankrupt, printing money, and federal, state and local governments handing out contracts to relatives and friends is not capitalism; it is the opposite of capitalism. It is called crony capitalism filth. Be glad it is in its last throes. What is the point when you realize capitalism does not exist? There is none. And remember, 300 is a bigger number than 30, a lot bigger.

Isn't it interesting that no matter what the government system is, be it communism, crony capitalism, socialism, Fascism, Marxism, dictatorships, etc..., there is always 3% to 12% of the country's elite that control the remainder of the population at the bottom. China is 90 million CCP dirtbags that control the 1.4 billion population that is 7% at the top and 93% Chinese folks at the bottom. Iran is in the news nowadays. That is 90 million people with 10 million controlling the other 80 million so that is 11% radical Islamist nutcases controlling the 89% of Iranian folks. America is 30 million at the top and 300 million at the bottom so that is 9% at the top controlling the 91% of have-not's at the bottom. This pattern repeats over and over around the world.

The governments and country systems continue until they are brought down by revolution, mainly led by the younger population, or they collapse due to to corruption. They can also collapse due to famine or disease. Inflation that drives food costs higher and creates riots and social unrest can also bring governments down that is how Chinese dynasties crumbled. People have to eat and they need water to drink. No government has ever stood the test of time. If that was the case, we would all be speaking ancient Sumerian and Akkadian. Even Rome, that stretched a few centuries, had about 40 different government structures within that time. All government systems fail eventually due to corruption or other reasons. The greed and corruption occurs since the thievery, grift and graft is hidden from prying eyes (non-transparency).

The beauty of America was the middle class. It was the fabric and glue that held the country together and found ways to bridge the gap between rich and poor and make it all work. Not anymore. That is gonzo. No one even talks like this anymore. There is only rich and poor now similar to the 1970's and 1980's but far more orders of magnitude worse. The computer age developed through the 1990's and 2000's helping to keep the crony capitalism system afloat (enough of the mass population was working and making money again). Then Fed Chairman Greenspan, that just croaked the other day, created the housing bubble that popped in 2007-2008 with his easy money policies. But that is in the rearview mirror in 2026. Human greed destroys everything over time as it has for 5,000 years; nothing will ever change that. Human greed knows no bounds.

Anyhoo, the spending by the wealthy helps prevent the US from falling into an overall recession even though manufacturing, housing and labor sectors remain weak and recessionary. The XLY is consumer discretionary spending. Mainly wealthy folks are buying mink coats, jewelry, fancy cars, taking airline trips, staying in ritzy hotels, wining and dining at fine food establishments, buying motorcycles, and boats, living the good life. The XLY behavior reflects the SPX. As utilities rise with traders growing cautious, the broad stock market is sold off especially the consumer discretionary stocks. If bad times are coming, even the wealthy will pull back on spending. Only the Lonely. Roy was great.

Conversely, the XLP is consumer staples spending. Regardless of good times or bad, everyone needs toilet paper to wipe their fat arses, soap, detergent, paper towels, diapers, hygiene products, etc... PG was always a consumer staples darling. Every time there was a whiff of a recession, everyone ran to buy PG. As would be expected, XLP moves the opposite of XLY. As stocks fall, traders seek safety in consumer staples. Healthcare holds up in bad times since everyone is sick because they lost their jobs.

Utilities take off higher last week without looking back. Consumer staples catch a bid in June but hesitate at the breakout level. The SPX breaks down, ditto consumer discretionary, but it is hesitating at its breakdown level. The market has to make a decision this week.

If utilities and stocks begin moving down together, that spells serious carnage ahead including a potential crash scenario. The bulls goosed the utes last week taking this scenario off the table but it can appear again especially if things begin falling apart. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; SPX Is in Short-Term Bear Market that Is Being Tested at 7418

The SPX comes up for the critical back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 the decider between a short-term bull market or short-term bear market. The previous chart from a few days ago explains this metric. Yesterday is a gap-down failure at the 200 at 7418. Price came up right away for a back test, that was successful for the bears, as price slumped over and remains soggy.

Today, price comes up for the back test at 7418 tapping on it a few minutes ago. It is time for the SPX to make a bounce or die decision. Flip that coin and call heads or tails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:05 AM EST: That did not take long. As the above was posted, the bulls punch up through the 200 at 7418 to a HOD at 7427. Woo-hoo. It's an orgy. Cough. Price comes back down to 7420. Watch it for the rest of the week. Bulls win above 7418. Bears win below 7418. The drama continues with price now at .... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer for it .... 7418. Copper remains weak and this creates a pall over the stock market.

Note Added 11:18 AM EST: SPX 7418. The Beat Goes On by Beady Eye.

Note Added 1:30 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX drops to 7349 with the 50-day MA at 7349. The back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 was successful for bears. Price came up and tested the 7418, and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is now at the 50-day MA at 7349 and must make a bounce or die decision from here. Things will get ugly if the 50 fails.

Note Added 4:39 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX falls through the 50-day MA support at 7349 to a LOD at 7336, but is goosed in the last 15 minutes by the market makers that do not want it to finish below the 50, and price ends at 7358. The drama will continue. MU pops +12% in the afterhours trading so chips will be pumped tomorrow and the SPX will likely float higher. Banks are happy after the crony stress test results are released and the banksters trip over each other to bump dividends higher. Copper weakness is a serious negative for the stock market that carries clout. VIX pops to 20.54 today only a dime away from creating major selling, but then it relaxes lower again, unwilling to leave its warm and cozy bull bed with an 18 handle. Utilities are pumped this week to help the bulls. The SPX may head higher again for another look at 7418 due to the Micron, chip, bankster and utility joy. Bulls win above 7418 and win big above the 20-day MA at 7473. Bears win big below 7349. Between 7350 and 7417 is noise. Price begins Thursday trading at 7358.

Note Added Friday Morning, 6/26/26, at 4:49 AM EST: The SPX pops higher yesterday to test the overhead resistance at 7418, and the bears spank it back down holding the resistance. Price then falls likely headed for the 50-day MA at 7357 and voila, the SPX falls to 7357, and then falls through to a LOD at 7323. The bulls kept battling and pushed price back above 7357 and that fight continues into the closing bell where the SPX ended at...... wait for it ...... no, you really should wait for it a bit longer ........ 7357. The S&P 500 is making a bounce or die decision at the 50. If the 7357 support fails, and then the low at 7323 is taken out, the downside target range of 6970-7120 is placed on the table. Bulls need to bust up through 7418 and then 7473 to start singing praises higher. The bulls want to sing Good News, Chariots A Comin', but the bears want the wheels to fall off the chariot. In the 1960's and 1970's, trickling into the early 1980's, the song was a standard in high school chorus class that was mandatory for all kids. It appears that schools only offer chorus class as an elective nowadays. Jackasses. It should be mandatory. Chorus class was not just about learning to sing. It teaches social skills. Everyone is embarrassed singing in front of their classmates and do not want to be made fun of, but what you find is that once the giggles stopped, it was fun to sing as one big uniform group, and it boosted everyone's confidence. Just another reason society is in the crapper nowadays. The exact kids that probably should be taking chorus class to boost their confidence and social interaction, are not. Parents, encourage your kids to take that elective chorus class especially if you have a shy introverted child.

Note Added Sunday, 6/28/26: The SPX ends last week at 7354 with the 50-day MA at 7363 acting as overhead resistance. Bulls need the SPX above 7363 pronto or they will fall apart. The drama continues.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; H&S; Fibonacci Retracements; Tech Stocks Sell Off after KOSPI (South Korea) Crashes -10%

 

Don’t you love the smell of napalm in the morning? ApocalypseNow. Pull back your units boys, we’re gonna light it up like a birthday cake. You know, folks, some day this stock market is going to end. That chopper sound echoes in your mind.

The Monday session was interesting with stocks popping and running higher after the Juneteenth holiday weekend when the bruthas were beatin’ on those skins. Oil prices drop on better news from the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz but instead of stocks rallying on the prospect of lower gasoline and fuel costs, they rolled over and sold off.

The chips are down, literally and figuratively. The tech stocks are causing the weakness in the broad stock market and trouble started in Asia overnight. The KOSPI (South Korea) crashes -10%. The problem there is that Samsung and SK Hynix make up almost the entire index; only two stocks! In addition, Kospi just allowed leveraged ETF’s to trade and this attracts hot money including leveraged retail traders (Joe Sixpack). It was fun on the way up but now that tech appears extended, the downside can be ugly. The NIKK (Japan) dumps -3.6%

Maybe the AI bubble is popping like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000? The SOX is down -6.3%. SMH -5.6%. XSD -5.1%. NVDA -2.6%. MRVL -7.3%. MU -10%. AMD -5.3%. CAT -4.5% (builds data centers). It is a tech bloodbath. IBM bucks the trend up +4% today. Favorite flavor SpaceX, SPCX, has crashed -34% in the last 4 days, after it printed the top, and the market makers are trying to hold the price at 150 and higher.

At the same time, Doctor Copper is puking on his shoes, so he is placed on a gurney and rolled into the emergency room to try and keep him breathing.

Adding more bad news on top of the pile of crony capitalism pig slop, the private credit problems continue due to their exposure to the software sector that is in the toilet bowl. Investors got into instruments for the long-term that place limits on withdraws. Now they want their money back faster because the markets look shaky but they cannot get the dough out fast enough. There is always some type of credit problem when a major stock market top occurs.

Technically, the above chart looks like a bowl of spaghetti. Price comes down to 7348 to test the 50-day MA support at 7340. The SPX has to make a bounce or die decision from here. The lower standard deviation band at 7299 is in play.

The blue lines show the Fibonacci retracements for the big rally that ran from April to the start of June. The 38% Fib retracement is 7121-ish and the 50% Fib is 6972.

The red lines show the H&S pattern in play. The 7621 is the head and the neckline is at 7370. That is a 251 point difference so subtracting that from the 7370 is 7119 a downside target if the 7370 gives way. You can also call the neckline at 73 hundo where that dip occurred a couple weeks ago. That targets 6979 if the 7300 fails. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why pretty Emily, the office administrative assistant, did not invite Keystone to the weekend party, the H&S targets and Fib retracement targets gel together at the 6970-7120 area. That appears a logical downside target to look for in the near term. The 100-day MA is 7051 and it typically acts as strong support when equities begin falling apart.

The red lines for the chart indicators are sloping lower (weak and bleak) except for the histogram and stochastics, however, price has not made a matching low compared to two weeks ago so it is a moot point for now. The RSI dips its toe into bear territory at sub 50%. Watch to see if the stochastics do the same. The MACD and money flow clearly show that they want to see some lower lows in price ahead on the daily basis.

The day is young. Of course, watch the chip and tech stocks but also pay attention to copper and volatility. For the bears to begin carnage, they will need copper to remain weak and getting weaker and the VIX to run above 20 and higher. Pay attention to the banking sector and the impact of the ongoing private credit withdrawal drama. Last week it was Palisades Park and hugging and kissing the pretty girls in the Tunnel of Love, but this week it is the End of the World as we know it. Look at how fantastic and fun the world was without those garbage smartphones. I feel fine. Everybody sing. It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:32 PM EST: The session ends with the SPX collapsing -1.4% to 7365. The LOD is 7347 and the 50-day MA is 7340. Price came down to within 7 points of testing the support at the 50-day. Since price is in the neighborhood, you would expect it to come down to kiss the 50 at 7340 to show it respect, and then make a bounce or die decision from 7340. The daily chart remains weak and bleak so a failure at the 50 would be expected. King Donnie Chumpski may cheerlead stocks overnight so that is always on the table. The SPX weekly chart is agreeable to lower lows on the weekly basis and key support is at the 20-wk MA at 7067 another critical support number that sits in that 6970-7120 target area if the wheels start falling off the wagon. Bears need the VIX above 20.68 if they want to create downside carnage to the 6970-7120 area. If stocks remain soggy and sell off, but the VIX remains below 20.68, the bears got nothing and stocks will recover and rally. If VIX pops above 21 and UTIL drops below 1116, stocks may crash. Bulls need stronger copper to stop the slide lower in equities. The NDX (Nazzy 100) plummets -3.3% today and the dirty SOX experiences a mini-crash off the bigtime top down -7.9%. MU and SNDK take the pipe each crashing more than -13%. Now the ball is handed back to Asia to see if they want to continue a cascading worldwide mini-crash in tech and AI-related stocks. All eyes will be on the KOSPI. CRBS collapses -9% in the afterhours trading that will be an ugly handoff to Asia. Let's call Oliver's Army to help us out.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/24/26, at 1:30 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX drops to 7349 with the 50-day MA at 7349. The back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 was successful for bears. Price came up and tested the 7418, and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is now at the 50-day MA at 7349 and must make a bounce or die decision from here. Things will get ugly if the 50 fails.

Note Added 4:39 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies, it failed. The SPX falls through the 50-day MA support at 7349 to a LOD at 7336, but is goosed in the last 15 minutes by the market makers that do not want it to finish below the 50, and price ends at 7358. The drama will continue. MU pops +12% in the afterhours trading so chips will be pumped tomorrow and the SPX will likely float higher. Banks are happy after the crony stress test results are released and the banksters trip over each other to bump dividends higher. Copper weakness is a serious negative for the stock market that carries clout. VIX pops to 20.54 today only a dime away from creating major selling, but then it relaxes lower again, unwilling to leave its warm and cozy bull bed with an 18 handle. Utilities are pumped this week to help the bulls. The SPX may head higher again for another look at 7418 due to the Micron, chip, bankster and utility joy. Bulls win above 7418 and win big above the 20-day MA at 7473. Bears win big below 7349. Between 7350 and 7417 is noise. Price begins Thursday trading at 7358.

Note Added Friday Morning, 6/26/26, at 4:49 AM EST: The SPX pops higher yesterday to test the overhead resistance at 7418, and the bears spank it back down holding the resistance. Price then falls likely headed for the 50-day MA at 7357 and voila, the SPX falls to 7357, and then falls through to a LOD at 7323. The bulls kept battling and pushed price back above 7357 and that fight continues into the closing bell where the SPX ended at...... wait for it ...... no, you really should wait for it a bit longer ........ 7357. The S&P 500 is making a bounce or die decision at the 50. If the 7357 support fails, and then the low at 7323 is taken out, the downside target range of 6970-7120 is placed on the table. Bulls need to bust up through 7418 and then 7473 to start singing praises higher. The bulls want to sing Good News, Chariots A Comin', but the bears want the wheels to fall off the chariot. In the 1960's and 1970's, trickling into the early 1980's, the song was a standard in high school chorus class that was mandatory for all kids. It appears that schools only offer chorus class as an elective nowadays. Jackasses. It should be mandatory. Chorus class was not just about learning to sing. It teaches social skills. Everyone is embarrassed singing in front of their classmates and do not want to be made fun of, but what you find is that once the giggles stopped, it was fun to sing as one big uniform group, and it boosted everyone's confidence. Just another reason society is in the crapper nowadays. The exact kids that probably should be taking chorus class to boost their confidence and social interaction, are not. Parents, encourage your kids to take that elective chorus class especially if you have a shy introverted child.

Note Added Sunday, 6/28/26: The SPX ends last week at 7354 with the 50-day MA at 7363 acting as overhead resistance. Bulls need the SPX above 7363 pronto or they will fall apart. The drama continues.

SPCX Space Exploration Technologies (Elon Musk) Daily Chart; SpaceX Is a Rocket Ride from 150 to 226 but then It Falls Back to Earth

Last week, SpaceX was the girl at the party that everyone wanted to dance with. This week she is a wallflower. A man was very shy because he had a wooden eye. It was time for the big community dance so he had hoped he could meet a nice girl. At the dance, he saw a young lady across the room that was sitting alone. She had a big nose. It was so big that if you stuffed it with nickels, you would be a millionaire. Nonetheless, he mustered up courage and walked over to the young lady. In a stuttering voice he asked, "Would you like to dance?" She exclaimed, "Would I! Would I!" He quickly answered, "Big nose! Big nose!"

SPCX is not the favorite flavor this week; it is a dud. The rocket ship took off for the moon on 6/12/26 opening at 150 on the dot above the 135 base price. Everything was groovy all the way to 226 on 6/16/26 last Tuesday. After that, the space ship falls back to Earth trading in the premarket right now at 150 the opening price on 6/12/26. From 226 to 150 is a -34% crash in SPCX in the last 4 trading days. $600 billion in market value is vaporized.

149.34 is its low price so watch that number closely going forward. There is likely far more pain if that fails and perhaps a test of 135. That would be catastrophic if it failed. The market makers may be obligated to try and hold 150 so the banks may be buying the dud today.

SpaceX is a company that loses money. Any one buying it is buying Elon's hopes and dreams whether they understand this or not. As they say in the Bronx, "Good luck wit dat." If you keep your feet on the ground, terra firma, SPCX is probably worth about $65 so it sits at about double what it is actually worth.

You wonder if the SPCX ticker will be confused with SPCE that is Virgin Galactic when traders go to buy or sell. Years ago, Ford Motor company, that is symbol F, would be confused with a company that had the ticker FORD. There is a double-leveraged (2x) ETF for SPCX named SPCH. It flamed out dropping from 28 to 12 in the last 4 days. If you got caught up in the SpaceX hype and bot last week, you lost one-half and more of your money this week; you are wearing a barrel crying in your beerski.

Good luck to SpaceX but there is a tough road ahead. Space Oddity. Ground control to Major Tom. Take your protein pills and put your helmet on. Ground control to Major Tom. Your circuit's dead, there's something wrong. Can you hear me Major Tom? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:54 AM EST: SPCX collapses to 147.70. A global tech selloff started in Asia last night and is cascading around the world. There is not enough money available going forward to push all the tech garbage higher. Perhaps it is a dotcom bubble redux; is the AI bubble bursting?.

Note Added 5:56 AM EST: SPCX is at 150.00 on the dot. The banks involved in the IPO are likely trying to hold the line at 150.

Note Added 10:24 AM EST: SPCX is at 154. No surprise.

Note Added 5:04 PM EST: SPCX is at 156. The space bulls are reinforcing the 150 and 135 support levels. Spaceballs. May the Schwartz be with you.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/24/26, at 5:01 PM EST: SPCX is at 154 trading flat printing a LOD at 150.

UTIL (or DJU) Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Dictate the Path Forward for the Stock Market

Utilities, UTIL or DJU, are a key driver of US stock market direction as the new week of trading begins after the Summer Solstice yesterday. Keystone's large solar calendar off to the side of the patio registers the longest day (shortest night) of the year yesterday. The shortest day (longest night) of the year is December 20th or 21st six months from now at the Winter Solstice. When the plasma wave from a solar flare fries the electronics on Earth, Keystone can keep time for everyone with the solar calendar like the ancients. Anyhoo, utes are the subject at hand.

The two key metrics are the closing price from 15 weeks ago that determines the weekly trend that in turn impacts the stock market, and the 50-week MA at 1116 that is a trap-door for stocks.

Right now, the bull/bear lines in the sand are 1180.42 and 1116.48. Price begins at 1120.43 creating negativity in equities because it is below 1180 but also creating positivity because it is above 1116. Obviously, bulls win bigtime if utilities continue higher but bears are back in business for more downside with stocks if the 1116 fails.

For next week, that transitions into July trading, the 1180.42 is meaningless and replaced with the blue circle at 1121.89 a much easier bridge to cross for the bulls with price at 1120 now. Thus, the bears better growl this week or the bulls may experience success through the July 4th holiday. Note, however, that for July, the bulls must be at or above the 1150 area represented by the purple, orange and grey circles. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Summer Solstice party at Stonehenge, the bulls need utilities to rally bigtime now and going forward during July to stave off ugliness in the stock market.

What does all that mumbo jumbo mean? To start this week, the bulls will keep the stock market buoyant with UTIL above 1116. Bulls will win going forward if UTIL remains above 1116 moving higher. If UTIL finishes the week above 1122, it is a rosy path ahead for stocks.

Bears need to push UTIL below 1116 immediately to provide a negative path ahead for equities. Bears must finish the week with UTIL below 1116 if they want to wreak havoc in the stock market going forward. Now you know what to watch. Easy-peasy. Keep in mind that if UTIL starts falling apart, and loses 11 hundo heading lower, the US stock market will likely crash going forward. XLU is trading down -0.5% in the premarket so the bears may want to play today. S&P futures are flat to lower about 3 hours in front of the cash open.

The Keybot the Quant trading robot remains short but is champing at the bit to go long the last several days. Utilities will likely dictate the path forward for the quant. Time to wake up this crowd with a rock and roll Bohemian vibe. Bohemian Like You by the Dandy Warhols. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:24 PM EST: The bulls came to play knowing they must defend 1116 with all their might, and they did, out of the gate and for the whole session. When price dropped, the bulls started pumping to keep UTIL buoyant and above 1122 already thinking about next week. Nothing has changed. Price is 1127 creating bearishness below 1180 but also creating bullishness above 1116. Stocks were soggy today but could not make any headway south because volatility remains relaxed and UTIL remains above 1116 refusing to fail and open the trap-door. Well, tomorrow is another day so this drama continues. Fed Chairman Greenspan died at 100 from Parkinson's. He created the housing bubble trouble with crony easy money policies but could never bring himself to admit it. Keystone worked with a guy many years ago his name was Jim Parkinson. Sadly, he got Parkinson's. Tragically, he had a wife and five kids. Instead of Jim Parkinson, he probably wishes his name was Jim Lottery. 

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/24/26, at 5:01 PM EST: UTIL is pumped to 1149. Of course, the bulls know the importance of the utilities. If a big selloff occurs in equities, the bulls hope they can minimize the downside damage with higher utes.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; US IS IN A HOUSING RECOVERY FOR 4 MONTHS BUT WILL LIKELY FALL INTO A DOUBLE-DIP HOUSING RECESSION IN JULY 2026; Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's Debut Rate Decision and Press Conference

The US was in a housing recession for 38 months (3 years and 2 months). Comically, no one noticed. The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 and ending 2/18/26. A housing recovery begins in February 2026 through the present, June 2026 (the chart shows the red line above the green line), but a likely failure back into a double-dip housing recession is on tap starting next month, July 2026.

It is a shame the government shutdowns occurred in the Fall and into early this year since it was an important time to have good data. A few more months need to play out before confidence is completely restored in the numbers. The 1.177 million housing starts yesterday, 6/16/26, was a jaw-dropper. The housing numbers fell off a cliff but you also wonder if the government shutdown is still impacting the data.

Are you a homeowner or a home moaner? People do not want to leave their current home, that has a low mortgage rate, for a new home with a bigger monthly payment. The lower availability of homes on the market hurts the first-time homebuyers. Also, hedge funds and other institutional investors have purchased a lot of real estate over the last decade. 

The United States has experienced housing, labor and manufacturing recessions for the last 2 to 4 years but no overall US economic recession. Go figure. Anytime in decades past, those three sectors in recession guaranteed an overall US economic recession. It is different this time. The rise of AI pushes back against the recession negativity. In addition, the Fed's easy money printing for the last two decades has made the wealthy class filthy rich (and they continue to spend and support the economy) since most of the money flows into the stock market. Too bad that one-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock.

30 million Americans at the top control the rigged crony capitalism system and raped the US for all its worth since the 1970's. The crony capitalism filth cannot be fixed and is in its final throes. The middle class was destroyed along the way and that was the glue that used to holed the country together. Now it is 30 million upper class and elite controlling the 300 million peons at the bottom. The vast wealth created for the privileged class due to the Fed's money printing has the rich folks continuing to spend money and support the economy helping prevent an overall US recession.

Thus, despite the housing, labor and manufacturing recessions, an overall US recession did not occur because of the AI glory and the rich folks spending money due to the wealth effect (they see their stock accounts with big gains so they spend money without thinking about it). Isn't it sickening how the 30 million at the top shafted the rest of the country? Oh well, too late now.

Stupid people comment on elections and discuss the policies by candidates. What for? None of that matters now. People will simply vote for whoever gives them money since the 300 million at the bottom cannot afford to live anymore. This is easy to understand, folks. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science. People do not understand terms like socialism, communism and crony capitalism, and are simply in favor of socialism because it will provide money or assistance to help them afford to live.

Humorously, a young person may say they are in favor of socialism but if you ask them if they want to own a house they say yes right away. The idiots do not understand socialism. These 300 million Americans at the bottom, that were screwed by the 30 million at the top, will vote for whoever gives them money or assistance. Duh. It does not matter if the guy has a Nazi tattoo, or is involved with antifa or BLM, or even if he beat his wife while wearing a wife beater tee shirt, people will ask if they will receive money or help to live, and if the answer is yes, they will vote for that person and do not care if he has a Hitler neck tattoo.

Common folks do not care about, or understand, the fancy arguments about socialism and all that rot, that the eggheads discuss using ten-dollar college words. They only understand that they cannot afford to live and need help. If a political candidate says they will send them a check if they get elected, despite the past DUI convictions, and Peeping Tom accusations, people will vote for him. This is the crony capitalism filth world that was created by human greed.

The wealthy got too greedy over the last few decades destroying the middle class. The split between rich and poor is the widest since the 1970's. The crony capitalism filth system cannot be fixed anymore. Keep in mind going forward that 300 is a bigger number than 30. What do you think is going to happen?

Today is Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's debut performance taking over the top spot from Jerome Powell that will stay on as a governor. Warsh may be asking himself this morning why he wanted the job. Those concerns disappear once he sees the free buffet. There is a jelly doughnut stain on his tie but it will come out in the warsh.

Many of us remember Warsh as a hawk going against the bailouts and the Fed's money-printing back in 2007-2009. However, that all changed as he started flapping dovish wings in front of King Chump vying for the chairman job. Which Warsh will show up today at the press conference?

The answer may be simpler than people think. As stated above, the US housing recession will likely restart next month. How do you know that? For the above chart to remain in a housing recovery, 1.6 million housing starts will need to be reported on 7/17/26. That is a tall order since the data is sliding lower for two months and the big drop below 1.2 million units occurs yesterday. It is not going to happen. The starts will likely come in at 1.1 to 1.4 million and that will send the chart back into a housing recession so circle 7/17/26 on your calendar. Keystone still uses a paper calendar but most of you young folks use your calendar smartphone.

Okay, so a housing recession will likely start back up again. That is not good and typically the Fed will lower rates to give some life to the housing sector. What? Everyone is on the inflation bandwagon now and expects the Fed to either remain on hold or contemplate a rate hike.

Look at the CRB and GTX commodity charts (punch in $CRB and $GTX into stockcharts.com) and you will see the huge pullback in commodities. It makes sense since oil is pulling back but many commodities are relaxing lower. This is goods inflation dropping and some of this savings will ripple into services inflation helping to moderate prices (if a company added a fuel charge due to Donnie Chump's Iran War, they will likely be taking it back off now).

Are you starting to gather these ideas together in your head to figure out Warsh's plan forward? Warsh has his personal indicators and technicals so it is a safe bet that he sees what Keystone sees above. Warsh also sees commodities dropping like a stone that means the inflation scare is likely overdone going forward (unless the Iran War blows up again). Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot that is why Keystone was not invited to the UFC event at the Whitehouse, with inflation not the big deal that people think it is going forward, and the country slipping back into a housing recession, means rate cuts should not be taken off the table this year. What!!? This guy must be smoking something.

This goes against the universal consensus although Citi is taking a lot of heat for leaning against rate hikes this year and favoring the possibility of a cut or cuts. Thus, Warsh will likely maintain the status quo, stay on hold with rates, no one will be surprised, but they likely will be as he may lean against everyone that is saying a rate hike is on tap this year. That would make Warsh slightly dovish if he factors in the above.

If Warsh is hawkish and hitches his wagon to the rate hike post, that will likely already be a policy mistake on his first day (first presser) on the job. If Warsh was smart, he would remain on hold and not commit to a hike bias. It would be wise to simply remain on hold and equally biased towards a cut or hike. Any hint of dovishness will likely send the stock market higher. If he hints that he likes the rate hike path forward better, stocks will likely sell off. The stock market is in a major topping process so it would not be surprising to see stocks sell off no matter what Warsh says. The Fed decision is at 2 PM EST and the much-awaited press conference begins at 2:30 PM EST (tentatively). Will Warsh be wearing hawkish or dovish wings? Band on the Run by Wings.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/17/26, at 7:30 PM EST: Chairman Kevin Warsh the hawk appears. The Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected but the bias is firmly in the hike camp. One-half of the committee want a rate hike some want 2 hikes this year and one Fed member wants 3 hikes. The Fed is clearly biased to the inflation side of the boat and Warsh stresses "price stability." Everyone is surprised since the messaging is clearly hawkish. He says the labor market (the other Fed mandate) is stable. Keystone's labor market indicator continues to try and show encouragement and a recovery but it is not there yet. Here is a link. The Jobs Report needs to be a 4.2% or lower unemployment rate on 7/2/26 for happy times for the jobs picture. if the rate is the current 4.3% and higher, that means trouble ahead and Warsh would have already made a mistake not giving enough attention to the labor picture. He mentions that housing is restrictive so he does understand that challenges are occurring in the housing sector, however, he appears most focused on bringing inflation down. Warsh announces a bunch of task forces; this is called Management 101. He is simply buying time until a firm decision must be made. At the next meeting, Warsh will say he is waiting on conclusions and directives from the task force. This is how the game is played. The first thing you do when taking any top job is appoint a committee. With oil and commodities coming down, the fear that everyone has over inflation may be overdone, and today may already be a policy mistake. The Fed does not want to say inflation is fleeting because they have bad memories from being wrong in the past. This time, however, they may keep warning about inflation as it already clearly subsides going forward perhaps as the global economy falters. Warsh was comfortable in front of the cameras and taking questions he has lots of experience at public speaking. He does a far better job than Bernanke, Yellen and Powell did at their first meetings. All three were nervous in the service but Warsh is trying to be a Smooth Operator. Warsh and the Fed are hawks so stocks drop like rocks. The S&P 500 takes the pipe down -91 points, -1.2%, to 7420.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Negative Divergence Spankdown Truncated by Donnie Chump's Iran War Happy Talk

The neggie d top on the daily chart finally forms and creates the spankdown as previously explained. Price falls through the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 7465, like a hot knife through butter. Price successfully back kisses the 20 and then falls to violate the lower band so a move back up to the middle band is on the table and voila, price comes up to 7456 on Friday. There is another 10 points needed to tap on the 20-day so the bulls may be gunning for that tomorrow. The 20-day MA at 7465 is an important resistance ceiling with bulls winning bigtime above while bears will win the game if price remains below.

The SPX topped-out as June started due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence across all chart indicators. A spankdown was needed and occurs. Price was over extended to the upside above the 20-day MA above the 50-day, above the 100 above the 150 above the 200, so a mean reversion lower was needed.

Note the three lows that print last week. That allows you to look at the chart indicators to see if positive divergence forms to set up a relief rally on the daily basis. This is when Donnie Chump announced that an Iran War deal was in the bag and the signing would be this weekend. Stocks exploded higher on Thursday and Friday. Follow the thin black line down to see if possie d is in play as price makes a matching or lower low, and it is for all indicators except the MACD line that remains weak and bleak wanting to see another lower low in price on the daily basis. This proves that the rally is due to Donnie hype and is not a technical bottom. Technically, there is unfinished business to the downside so the Iran War happy talk will have to play out for a day or few.

King Trumpski is threatening military action again after Iran says they will likely not sign the agreement today but perhaps in the days ahead. Iran likely wants to wait to see what happens at the G7. Who will Donnie talk to and what does he say? Baby Trump wants his little birthday agreement present today so he can spin a yarn that he created world peace on his birthday. What color is the sky in that dufus's mind? Probably orange.

Iran plays Trump like a Stradivarius. Even if a deal is agreed to, Iran will tell their proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon to fire missiles at Israel, and Israel will have to retaliate, so Iran will say the deal is off because Israel needs to stop fighting. Donnie is the Chump in this circle-jerk party game squandering the military success in Iran and instead creating a mess that may be worse for the US and the world. Futures open at 6 PM EST and that will already be 1 AM Middle East time on Monday morning.

The ADX shows that the down move in March was a strong trend lower but that petered out in early April as the rally took hold. The entire upside from there and printing of all-time record highs comes without the ADX signaling that it is a strong trend higher. For the record highs, the ADX should be above 30 and probably at 40 right now instead it is down to 26 and dropping. The ADX is not impressed with the stock market rally at all. The ADX tried to show a strong trend just as the all-time record high was printed, but that did not hold and disappeared fast.

The Aroon shows a negative cross. That came about fast. Now the bulls are still bullish for stocks but the bears are now bearish the stock market. A week ago, the bulls were bullish, no surprises there, and the bears were also bullish. Traders and investors are starting to rethink the stock market and worry that the party may not last.

Lots more downside would be expected going forward considering the negative divergence in the weekly time frame and the rampant complacency and fearlessness that continues in the stock market that is displayed during every major and historic top.

That UFC garbage is tonight where blood and spit will cover the Whitehouse lawn. If that is what people want, give it to them. Sick stuff. The people's house and lawn is not the place for such a violent blood sport. Looks like rain or the hot sweaty air and bugs may ruin the cage match. They say 100K people may fill the Ellipse for the viewing. Huh? A major speech or inauguration may draw 100K to 200K to the area but it is hard to believe that about one-half or more of the people that attend the major campaign and political events in Washington, DC, are going to flock there late on a Sunday night to watch blood and spit fly from people's mouths? That audience is probably going to be all young people, mainly men, from 15 years old to 50. Donnie and the gang are praying for No Rain. Ooh, ooh, ooh, I like watching the puddles gather rain. It's not sane. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 6/15/26, at 5:55 AM EST: The orchestrated Iran War agreement is announced by Trumpy at 5:30 PM EST. He proclaims the Strait of Hormuz is open and to 'let the oil flow'. Idiot. An hour later, the Strait of Hormuz will not open until Friday. It does not matter. The insurers of those cargoes need details and to know what is going on factually before they can commit to allowing their ships to pass through those now dangerous waters. You knew the deal was coming because all day Sunday, Trumpy boasted of a conclusion no matter what, regardless of details that remain in disagreement. Note how Donnie waited until 5 PM EST, since it turns Monday in Iran 7 hours ahead, because he hoped the radical Islamists would capitulate and give him his baby birthday present. Iran did not. Iran waited for Monday to stick it to Trump. Donnie wanted to announce an agreement, whatever it is, since details will not be released, before futures opened and boom, S&P futures pop +100 points. There was no signing of any agreement. There is supposed to be a signing in Switzerland on Friday but it is unknown who will be signing what. Iran continues to state different details about the deal than Trump. It is a weak deal since Donnie does not want to release the details. When Trump kept threatening military action but backing away, he gave up his leverage. Iran knew Donnie was looking for an exit ramp. They are eating his lunch. It was clear in Trump's statements that he does not want to send troops into Iran so that gives Iran the upper hand in the deal making process. King Donnie opined about loss of Iranian lives if bombing continued and the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, so King Donnie the deal maker, gave up his leverage. Trump was not willing to finish the mess he created. The US may be giving Iran from $12 billion to $24 billion dollars upon the signing of the agreement. What? Donnie complained that Obama gave $1.7 billion to the radical nation. No wonder Trump will not release the details. Both Trump and Iran now say they will not release details until the signing on Friday that means they are still arguing over unsettled issues. There is no mention of the ballistic missiles that the radical Islamists can attach upgraded uranium, or a biological pathogen, in a warhead and create havoc in a major European city. Trumpy's Iran deal sounds like a sh*t deal, if there is a deal. Folks, open your eyes. Trump goes from demanding an unconditional surrender to having his orange tail between his legs negotiating a weak deal. In addition, Trump and Putin talk to each other and then after they hang up, Putin bombs a heritage site in Ukraine and kills some more civilians. Donnie does not care about Ukraine since he lies in bed with Vlad. Donnie hates Ukraine so much that he will not take advantage of their expertise in drone warfare that could greatly help the United States defenses. Israel says 'deal, what deal?' and states that they are not bound to the agreement between Trump and Iran. All of the above creates a happy start to the trading week and that may continue since stocks are typically higher into a Fed meeting anyway. The charts need to price-in the additional Donnie hype. Adding a hundo to Friday's closing price of 7431 is 7531 blowing up through the 20-day MA at 7465. The high from the previous Friday was 7542 so that may act as a ceiling. Again, there is no reason for price to come back up, there are no gaps to fill; all the gaps are below. Price may moderate between 7465 and 7542 until it makes an exit on one side or the other. There will be drama for a few days with the G7, Warsh's debut performance on hump day, and the so-called Iran deal signing on Friday. If the so-called signing occurs late Friday, the stock market craziness may stumble into next week. So there is likely a week and a half of wild price action ahead. The pop gives you a chance to get out of longs. Nothing's changed. The charts will reset and a major top remains on the docket going forward. The off the charts bullish euphoria in the stock market and expectation that equities will go up forever is on full display just like the dotcom bubble. The UFC event went off without rain ruining the evening so that is good. Unfortunately, the night is soiled by one of the jackass fighters yelling out an ignorant slur at the Obama's proclaiming that "Michelle Obama is a man!" Not cool. The Whitehouse UFC event will now be known as the event where they said Michelle Obama is a man. Hey Frank. Yes, Roy. Did you go to the UFC event? Yes, you should have seen it, Trump and the fighters said that Michelle Obama is a man. To the crowd's credit, one-half of them booed the ignorant derogatory comment. Under Trump, we are the shining insult city on the hill. The entire crowd for the UFC event was young men. Trumpy wanted to placate his voting base. The stands were full of service members so they were all given tickets and told to show up and watch. The event easily achieved 80K people including those watching the big screen and that makes sense since many thousands were service members. King Donnie is flying over to France for the G7 and already in his onesies fast asleep. Sweet dreams.

Note Added Monday Evening, 6/15/26, at 7:24 PM EST: Whee! Whoopie! It was party time with traders buying with both fists after the King Donnie Iran War agreement hype. The orgy sends the SPX to 7578 and it settles at 7554 a 123 point gain, +1.7%. This big price move occurs on less volume than two days ago when the Iran agreement was first announced and a big spike higher occurred in the SPX. That may be a bunch of Joe Retail and Bonita Bagholder folks buying stocks after listening to the daily television hype. More Donnie Chump drama occurs today. Of course it does. Everyday is a new reality television episode. Trump proclaims that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Two sentences later he decrees that Hormuz will "completely open" on Friday. Huh? That is like being a little pregnant. There are probably some oil tankers moving through the strait but other large cargoes are likely waiting for a blessing from the insurers. The Whitehouse and Vice President Vance say the Iran agreement was digitally signed. Humorously, maybe it was a Donnie deal signed by Trump and placed in a FedEx envelope sent to Iran? It is a confusing mess when everyone talks in riddles. Trump's Iran deal is so fantastic that he said he will probably not attend the signing on Friday despite being in Europe. You have seen this story before. He will have Vance sign it and as the criticism occurs, Trumpski will tell everyone to talk to Vance. It is funny stuff. There is a 60-day time frame for the next so-called deal although no one knows what the first deal is. When you are talking nuke stuff you are going to need nuclear physicists in on those discussions on both sides. They will highlight the stages of processes that would allow windows of opportunity for taking actions to mitigate the material. This stuff is not sorted out in a day or three. It will likely take weeks and maybe months to figure out the details on the nuclear problem. Iran will ask for a 60-day extension after the first 60 days ends and keep stringing Donnie Chump along making him look like a chump. King Donnie snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Only a fool trusts a radical Islamist. Trump now says the Iran agreement may not be released until well after Saturday. What? Donnie is getting rolled in the alley way behind the Eiffel Tower by a bunch of Iranian guys in robes and sandals. The Iran agreement must be released. Trump must be ashamed of the deal. Folks, Trump will be further humiliated because a nuclear deal will never materialize.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/16/26, at 5:52 AM EST: Trump is talking in real-time from G7. He looks tired and run down with a raspy voice and always sitting these days hunched over with his forearms on his thighs. He's old. Donnie mixes up Biden and Obama in his comments; he must be tired. Trump says regime change was never a goal in Iran. That is a lie. Trumpski's very first speech on the Iran War he stated that he wanted regime change. The idiot does not care that his past comments are on video; he simply moves on each day and spews whatever comes to mind. The reason he hit Iran was likely because the Israeli intelligence said all the Iranian leaders are in one place and the whole regime can be taken out in one hit. Trump went for it and succeeded, however, the second tier radical leadership stepped up; Iran had a plan for succession. Donnie eliminated most of them but the regime remains in place and that is why Trumpy now says regime change was never the goal (because he failed). Trump slams Israel for hitting Lebanon and says Israel would not exist without him. Trump is mad at Bibi because the elimination of the top two tiers of the radical Islamist leadership did not result in regime change so King Donnie looks like a zero instead of a hero. America and Israel created a worse mess in the Middle East. Donnie repeats the same old talking points every time he is in front of the camera. It is the same ole schtick from the orange-headed carnival barker and the act gets old. Trump claims Iran is now in the rearview mirror. What!!!? Oh my. You can see how Trump is setting up Vance and now Netanyahu to be the fall guys and villains of the Iran War, and left to handle the mess, while he is trying to sneak out the back door and wash his hands of it. Donnie would rather spend time picking out the gold curtains for his ballroom. What a guy, what a guy. He has a baby's brain and an old man's heart. That was one of Alice's greatest lyrics. I'm Eighteen. S&P futures are flat.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/16/26, at 8:35 AM EST: Trump is talking again from the G7 unable to stop his diarrhea of the orange mouth. He repeats over and over again that his goal in Iran is not to permit them to have a nuclear weapon. Trump is trying to downplay all talk of regime change and other matters in Iran and is trying to manipulate the media and massage a message to the public that the nuclear angle is the top goal in Iran. Of course he is because he failed at regime change. He brags that satellites are watching Iran 24/7 including the areas where nuclear material is buried deep in the Earth. If so, why do you have to get the material? Instead, simply watch the areas for activity. Duh. Donnie is speaking in half-truths and riddles so we do not know the real truth of what is going on in Iran and we are not being shown the so-called agreement. Trump is pressed again as to why he does not release the agreement and his weak and feeble excuse is that he wants to release it in a formal setting. What bull sh*t. It must be a garbage deal. S&P futures are flat.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/17/26, at 7:34 AM EST: Trump the chump says the agreement, the so-called MoU (Memo of Understanding) with Iran, is "not final." Huh? King orange head decrees that he will revert to "dropping bombs" if he does not like the deal. What a pile of slop it is. Trumpski is in over his orange head and getting played like a Stradivarius.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/17/26, at 6:30 PM EST: Trumpy's Iran agreement is going over like a lead balloon. Of course democrats do not like it but many republicans do not either. It looks like King Donnie gave away the store. No wonder he is hiding the document from everyone. Bootleg copies of the agreement are leaked to the press and the deal does suck. Iran got over on Trump. The administration then reads the agreement to the press and it contains a $300 billion economic development fund; money for radical Islamists. Trump officially signs the document but didn't he already do that? It is jackass stuff. Stay tuned. The lie will change to something else in 10 minutes. The deal is a pile of pig slop. The Iranians are celebrating their negotiation victory over the orange head with a sword dance. Donnie puts his small hands in the air and exclaims, "I surrender." However, giving Trump and the gang some credit, maybe they are buying time to get the Strait of Hormuz completely free of mines so US military ships could operate through the area with impunity if needed. But Donnie does not want to use military action and at the G7 he opined about the loss of life and economic damage so he is showing more of his cards to Iran again and losing more leverage. Iran knows that Chumpski is a paper tiger and does not want to use anymore military force against Iran. What a mess. Trump's legacy from the first term is a whining, cry baby, sore loser after the reelection loss. He was King Crybaby. For this term, Donnie's legacy will be wearing the Iran War albatross around his neck. He screwed the pooch. Trump joked today that if the Iran War works out, he will claim credit, if not, he will blame Vice President Vance; he was not joking. Trump lost his way. King Donnie is The Man Who Sold the World. Fed Chairman Warsh conducts his first meeting and the Fed are hawks so stocks drop like rocks. The S&P 500 takes the pipe today down -91 points, -1.2%, to 7420.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/18/26, at 7:50 AM EST: The Donnie drama continues. Trump saw the stock market tank so he stepped in last night, during a dinner party with Macron in France, to sign the Iran agreement. S&P futures run higher gaining +80 points overnight now up about +50. The confusing Iran mess continues. King Donnie signs the agreement but does that mean there is no Friday meeting. Does Vance sign it? It appears that is the so-called official signing so the 60-day clock begins for the next phase. It is sloppy work. Nonetheless, the Strait of Hormuz is opening with more ships slowly passing through the dangerous waterway, so oil retreats with West Texas crude at 75-ish. Trumpski ended up with a poor deal with Iran because he wanted gasoline prices to come down in the US in front of the mid-term elections, showing his hand to the radical Islamists, that took advantage of the 80-year old orange man's weak deal making skills. Donnie should have never went into Iran without committing to finishing the job; instead, he went in believing he would be the hero of regime change, but that did not work out as expected, and now he leaves a mess. Next on the agenda for Iran will be to complain that Israel remains hostile to Hezbollah so that is a violation of the MoU. Donnie Chump got in over his orange head and had to give away the store to extricate himself but leave a mess behind. What a guy. Iran will keep playing Donnie like a Stradivarius.

Note Added Friday, 6/19/26: US markets are closed today for Juneteenth. Keystone is picking up his ceremonial headdress at the cleaners this morning. There will be a lot of banging on drums and playing bass today (musician's joke). Amani Bowale. The SPX gains +80 points yesterday to 75 hundo on the dot reflecting the signing of the sloppy Iran agreement. The 20-day MA is 7485 so bulls win above and bears win below. The Iran agreement is already in jeopardy and Donnie's Sharpie ink is not even dry on the paper yet. There is 59 days remaining in the new round of negotiations. Veep Vance has to cancel his trip to Switzerland to negotiate after Iran complains that Israel is not honoring the MoU. Wow, no one saw that coming (said cynically). You knew Iran would play that Hezbollah game and they are. Hezbollah kills four Israeli soldiers in a tank attack so Israel fights back. The only person being fleeced is King Donnie Chumpski that made a bad deal. The market and economic analysts told Donnie that US gasoline prices would tag $7 per gallon and higher (way above Biden's high gasoline prices) in a couple months so the orange head panicked. Iran had him by the short hairs once he panicked and showed his cards (Trump desperately has to get the Strait of Hormuz open to prevent higher gasoline prices that would sink the republican party in the November mid-term elections). Thus, Chump gave away the store. There was confusion if a signing ceremony was supposed to happen today or not. It is all a bunch of disorganized slop. Trumpy is interviewed last evening and claims that Iran gave him an "unconditional surrender." You have to laugh; the dude is delusional and in need of some help. Iran remains belligerent, even emboldened, and proud, that they got the upper hand against Donnie. Trump finds out what happens when you go to war without a solid gameplan. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. King Donnie put his small hands in the air and surrendered to the radical Islamists because he did not want to suffer the consequences of higher gasoline prices. While everyone bangs on drums today and plays bass, Keystone prefers Cheap Trick and, what else, Surrender. A rock and roll classic. Mommy's all right, daddy's all right, they just seem a little weird. Surrender, surrender, but don't give yourself away.

Note Added Monday Evening, 6/22/26, at 7:39 PM EST: The SPX oscillates above and below the 20-day MA at 7487 with price sitting below at 7473. Bears win below. Bulls win above. A Tesla killed Granny today automatically driving into her house. Poor lady. She was probably sitting on her rocking chair crocheting socks for the orphans at the orphanage that she hands out during the holidays. No doubt the cable news outlets will opine about how she so looked forward to her weekly bingo game at the local firehall. In her honor, no one is allowed to sit at her regular seat at the bingo hall and her friends have placed her bingo dabber on the table to symbolize the loss. Tesla's are nothing more than glorified golf carts and now they are killer machines. What idiot buys an electric vehicle when there is a gas station on every corner? New inventions are supposed to save money and time and make life simpler. EV's are more expensive, they take trip planning and knowledge of charger locations, and complicate life with pushing in and pulling out a plug every day, puling the car in the garage every day, etc.. A gas vehicle you fill up. That takes 5 minutes and you do not think about any refueling until the next fill-up. You park it anywhere you want at any time. You can jump in and take a trip without any planning. Raise your hand if you are a moron that likes to spend more money, and make life harder on yourself.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/24/26, at 1:30 PM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. The SPX drops to 7349 with the 50-day MA at 7349. The back kiss of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7418 was successful for bears. Price came up and tested the 7418, and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is now at the 50-day MA at 7349 and must make a bounce or die decision from here. Things will get ugly if the 50 fails.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Complacency and Bullish Euphoria Continue Signaling More Pain Ahead for Stocks

The put/call ratios remain in the cellar verifying the rampant complacency, fearlessness, and bullish euphoria, like the dotcom bubble, that is unshakable. Comically, the worse the news, the better for stocks. Ebola outbreak? Yippee, buy, buy, buy. Ongoing Iran War confusion and Donnie mixed messages. Great. Buy stocks. Dysfunctional Washington, DC. Fantastic. That is a buy. Fantastic Cat sings So Glad You Made It with Adam Duritz sitting in. The list goes on. Traders and investors believe in artificial intelligence as their new god, like worshipping the golden calf in the desert. AI will fix everything and humans will be free to frolic in an abundant utopia participating in unimaginable debauchery. Don't hold your breath.

The green circle shows when panic and fear started to hit (preferably above 1.2 but 1.15 was good enough for government work). The higher put/call signaling fear and panic called the bottom at the end of March. So here we are a couple months and more later in party mode not caring about anything anymore. Shoot those missiles, baby, and buy those stocks. Of course, the euphoria will end because everyone needs taught a lesson for their partying ways.

Everyone remains on the bull side of the boat, listening to Yacht Rock, partying all night long expecting stocks to jump higher every day forward. Folks are wearing their "Dow 50K, SPX 7.6K and SPX 7.5K" party hats swigging down Fed wine looking forward to Wizard Warsh bringing the tablets down from On High on Wednesday and tell everyone how to trade. Wednesday Addams.

The stock market has not yet pulled back to any great extent. Expect far greater drops in equities going forward until people are beaten out of their bullish euphoria mindset and take on gloom, doom, panic and fear, and that will be time to nibble on longs, in the daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.