GTX Commodities Daily Chart Explains Trumpflation

The story of Trumpflation is a twisted tale. King Donnie Chumpski has done nothing to lower prices for common Americans. Toss that campaign promise in the trash with the others. GTX and CRB charts are the same. Both tickers are made up of many commodities, including oil, and are a representation of goods inflation. Of course, when oil prices rise, you feel it at the gasoline pump and those higher fuel costs increase prices across the board.

Sleepy Joe Biden was a mess of a president but what can you expect from a man with early onset of dementia, and Alzheimer's on the side, that spent each day eating chocolate pudding and looking for his hat. Inflation was bumping higher as Trump was elected in November 2024 and the path of higher inflation continued into early 2025. A pullback occurs in goods inflation as prices ebb and flow with the seasons and other factors. Donnie Chump is quick to pounce on the good news and claims credit for lowering inflation within a few months of his presidency. That joy did not last long.

Trumpski then imposed tariffs on other countries starting April 2025 friend or foe. It was a mechanism that guaranteed that the attention, and cameras, would be pointed at his orange face every day forward; it was a narcissist's dream. Of course, tariffs increase inflation as the orange dolt proclaims that tariffs will decrease inflation. He is not a very smart man, in fact, he is a low IQ individual that is driven by his lust for daily attention and adoration.

At the end of February, over 4 months ago, King Donnie starts the Iran War an unmitigated mess. Oil prices catapult above $100 per barrel sending gasoline and other prices higher crushing the low-income family that already cannot pay the monthly bills. You can see in the chart that goods inflation retreated during late May and June, as oil price came back down with Donnie promising an end to his war, but that slight relief in higher prices has now gone up in a puff of smoke. Probably pot smoke these days. 

Donnie Chump re-escalates the Iran War so oil and other prices are on the rise again. King Donnie is as equally incompetent as Sleepy Joe Biden. Inflation has no effect on you when you are rich; you always buy what you want to buy.

The 30 million Americans at the top, that raped the US financial system for all it is worth starting with Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980's, are asking why is everyone so glum? These privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, that live in the McMansions, control the nation and the other 300 million folks are the peons at the bottom of the food chain that now view the American Dream as the American Joke. The middle class was gutted over the last six decades so the wealthy could have 10 homes, 32 cars, a $40,000 refrigerator, and send their kids to the best schools and colleges to perpetuate the class separation, and on top of all that complain daily about the taxes they pay. The Trumpflation saga is now added on top of that pig slop. Many common Americans cancel their drive and vacation to Atlantic City and the East Coast this year because of the debilitating Trumpflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:17 PM EST: The CPI inflation data is released this morning and the headline number is much tamer than expected at 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. This will make the Fed's job easier since they can stay on hold. They do not want to cut since employment remains steady and buoyant although the housing sector remains challenged. The Fed can delay a hike since inflation is no biggie as the happy data shows. Right? Wrong. The news is groovy for this data set but it represents that period in the chart above at the end of May and June with oil prices dropping and inflation improving, just as the data shows. However, the same data that will be released next month, only about 30 days away, will reflect the upward spike in the maroon circle so everyone will be nervous about rising inflation again. GTX jumps higher to 5320 today so far. You can check CRB later since it is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. Despite the happy data today, you can smell a faint and foul odor of persistent inflation. The jukes and jives with data from one month to the next increases the market drama.

AAPL Apple Daily and Weekly Charts Remain Rotten with Negative Divergence Despite All-Time Record High at 323 Palindrome

Apple squeezes out a new all-time record high at the 323 palindrome but it remains a piece of excrement. Recent happy talk and now a lawsuit against OpenAI has got some sucka's and bagholders in a buying mood again. The daily and weekly charts are in full negative divergence across all indicators so she is cooked in the daily and weekly time frames.

Price may jog for a couple days, especially with Fed drama on tap, but AAPL should receive its neggie d spankdown at any time forward in both the daily and weekly time frames. It is set up for a multi-week pullback so as it drops, you can reference the monthly chart and see if the MACD goes neggie d to identify the top as a long-term multi-month even, multi-year, top. Even if it is not THE top now, it will be within a couple months. After the multiple weeks of downside, AAPL may come up again for a few weeks to seal the deal on the monthly so that long-term top is either now or late August/September (to give a little more time for the MACD on the monthly to go neggie d).

The hype is out of hand today with television analysts yelling buy, buy, buy! Buy this shiny red apple that is rotten on the inside. No charge for the worm. Did you puff out your chest today and buy Apple stock?

Timmy Trader bot 4 big blocks of AAPL stock on the long side and brags to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant, in the breakroom, that he is a better trader than Jesse Livermore. Emily scoffs, laughing at the hapless idiot. Timmy Trader asks Emily why she will not go out with him. Emily flicks her hand as she leaves the breakroom laughing proclaiming that she would never date a man that did not respect neggie d. Timmy is left alone holding a cup of lukewarm coffee wondering what this neggie d and possie d stuff is?

It will be fun to watch going forward. Note today's candlestick with the long upper shadow. That tells you it was a bull versus bear battle all day long and in the end the bears won. Comically, AAPL prints a new all-time record high but the bears won the day. If you own Apple, take the money and run, otherwise, you will be known as Sapple. Keystone is not long or short AAPL and has not played it in a while. If he does trade AAPL going forward, it would be on the short side. The Apple is rotten but the Gin Blossoms are groovin' at a backyard concert gig. Hey Jealousy. Suddenly, all the neighbors want to be friends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Whipsawing Back to the Long Side

Keytone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side today at SPX 7534 but humorously, wants to already flip back to the short side. The market action is crazy this week. Watch copper and utilities. The flip-flops and mis-directions make you Dizzy like Tommy Roe. Going around in circles all the time.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7451. The quant, however, already wants to whipsaw back to the long side. Utes, chips and retail stocks are key. It may be an interesting morning ahead.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Diamond Pattern; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

Here is an update for the SPX diamond pattern that was posted a few charts back. Price came up to test the top rail, and punched up through, however, the red lines show the higher highs in price but all the indicators are negatively diverged. The orange circle highlights the MACD line that is neggie d because it is flat but that sneaky thing probably wants another jog move before throwing off firm negative divergence.

For this chart, the candlesticks print at the opening bell at 9:30 AM EST, then at 10 AM, then at 12 PM (noon), then at 2 PM; 4 candles per day. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was disinvited to the Taylor Swift wedding, a down-up jog move would place the top at 10 AM tomorrow if the top is not in already as the chart above shows. You simply have to watch the MACD to make sure it remains neggie d, this should be known at 10 AM, and if not, surely by noon, the chart will likely be committed to a neggie d spankdown with prices pulling back.

Then the question will be if price simply back kisses the top rail of the diamond pattern and then bounces and takes off higher like a rocket, or, will price fall back into the diamond pattern and then potentially fall out the bottom rail of the diamond pattern. Tomorrow should be a top in the 2-hour time frame and we shall see what the bears got. Keybot the Quant algorithm is long but will be looking to go short if copper is weak. Shine On You Crazy Diamond. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/8/26, at 4:52 AM EST: The SPX receives the start of the neggie d spankdown in the 2-hour time frame. Price falls to the top rail of the diamond at 7503. The SPX hesitates since it must make a bounce or die decision from here. King Donnie Trumpski retaliates against Iran for hitting the ships yesterday and from the NATO summit proclaims that the ceasefire is over and he calls the Iranian government (IRGC) "scum." Oil jumps higher and European stocks and US futures collapse. S&P futures are down -63 points and WTIC oil is at 74.67 and Brent crude at 78.45. WTIC crude tapped 67, the price at the start of the Iran War, a couple days ago but now explodes higher towards 75. US gasoline prices and overall inflation will float higher creating problems for King Donnie into the mid-term elections on November 3rd, less than 4 months away. WTIC crude tags 75 and Brent is about to hit 79. Donnie Trumpy loves to put on a show. Global markets are shell-shocked and digesting Donnie's latest tantrum.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: The SPX pulls back to the top rail of the triangle and bounces finishing the week strong threatening to break out to all-time record highs again. The diamond pattern may resolve to the upside if price begins running above 7600 and higher. It is a very sloppy finish to the diamond pattern that may fade into the background and become nullified as sideways chop suey continues. The buying volume on Thursday and Friday is pitiful. There are a lot of Joe Sixpack's tripping over each other to buy any dip as the institutional money slips out the back door. The stock market is erratic and unstable so let it ride out the drama. The Iran War appears to be escalating again with the radical Islamists decreeing the Strait of Hormuz closed. Donnie screwed the pooch starting the war and is in over his orange head. Trumpski is dangling resorts, casinos, beaches and girls in bikinis to the radical Islamists that are religious fanatics and would be honored to die for Allah. How does the so-called deal-maker make a deal with someone he does not understand? Donnie is used to dealing with Western crony capitalists that freely and willingly sell their souls for money or power. In Iran, however, religious fanaticism, not crony capitalism greed, drives their actions. Drones are the future and may eventually destroy everything on Earth. Resistance is futile. Iran knows they can control the strait forever with their cheap drones fitted with warheads. It can be hopeless to defend against swarms of drones. Remember, when Donnie started the war at the end of February, the first question Keystone asked was 'how many drones does Iran have because that dictates how long the war will last'. The answer is it is a new forever war. A diplomatic solution appears unattainable so the Iranian regime would have to be replaced with a government that agrees to keep the Hormuz waterway open. Until that happens, the turmoil and Middle East drama will continue and fester. Trump's first-term legacy was a whining, crybaby, sore-loser. King Crybaby. Donnie's second term legacy may be the president that forever changed navigation through international waterways creating tollways and forbidden zones making the world a far more dangerous place. Donnie has to fix the mess he created in Iran, otherwise, that new negative legacy awaits. Look for King Donnie to proclaim some news to try and goose markets or keep oil prices down this afternoon before the futures open for trading at 6 PM EST.

CAT Caterpillar Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Tweezer Top; Price Extended; Michael Burry Short

CAT is in the news since Michael Burry wants to play it on the short side going forward. That may be a touch early for a short call on the weekly basis. Negative divergence is developing as the red lines show and the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow all want price to receive a neggie d spankdown. However, the MACD line remains long and strong with fuel in the tank to still take price higher. Also, that money flow is getting goosed and may create near-term buying interest.

Caterpillar is long in the tooth on the weekly basis. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The RSI, stochastics, money flow are overbot agreeable toa  pullback on the weekly basis. The MACD is in nosebleed territory so it can reverse at will from here and lock in the chart negativity. The Tweezer Top (blue circle) is identifying a top but it would be nicer if the MACD was neggie d.

She may jog for a couple weeks, down in price for a week then back up for a week around these highs and higher, and then the MACD will be neggie d to lock in the top.

Why the orgy with Caterpillar a stodgy old company that makes huge machinery ran by guys in flannel shirts that spit tobacco? AI, what else? Artificial intelligence has its hand in every pie. The data centers are needed for the AI revolution that will produce more stupid videos and answer your lazy questions. What is the first thing that happens when building anything including roads and bridges? A hole is dug in the ground and you need CAT machinery for all that work. Earth-movers will grade a lot of acreage so the rain water flows a certain way. Retention ponds are needed. Temporary gravel roads are needed as construction crews lay foundations and begin erecting the buildings.

That is the Captain Obvious reason for traders buying CAT with both fists over the last year. But there is a second reason. Caterpillar and Cummins provide huge diesel and natty gas generators and other equipment that data centers will need. Everyone talks about the power needed. I need more power, Scotty! Captain, I'm giving her all she got! No one thinks about the back-up power. If power goes out in a storm or for other reasons, the show must go on so the data centers will probably have back-up diesel or natural gas generators. These large generator skid units are about half the size of a ranch home (think big equipment not a little generator you see in Home Depot).

So CAT jumps higher with traders tripping over each other to buy shares. Some folks are late to the party, that always happens, so they may create some sideways chop until the above chart is in full neggie d for the top.

The CAT daily chart just topped out with neggie d on the daily basis taking the -7% beating today. There would be more downside expected for a few days or week or so. The monthly chart is ugly in negative divergence across all indicators except for the MACD but that is in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down. There may be a month of choppy sideways slop ahead with CAT. The Burry short call looks good for going through the rest of the year into 2027 but it may still take a month of slop at the elevated levels before she lets loose to the downside.

If you rode CAT higher and have profits, take them and move on. CAT is a short the rallies play going forward for the rest of the year but it may be better to enter short in a couple weeks or a month. Keystone is not in CAT long or short but will consider playing it short as the year progresses. Come on, honey, show us that Stray Cat Strut. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: CAT pukes almost -3% on Friday dropping to 948 but rebounding to 963 sitting on the 20-day MA S/R at 963. Price will bounce or die from here. Keystone should have waited one day before posting the chart above since now it is in full negative divergence on the weekly basis. The MACD is sloping down as the Tweezer Top printed. Thus, CAT should tail lower for a few weeks, but then will rebound, probably not to the Tweezer Top highs but maybe to 1000, and that will provide the monthly chart time to lock in its negativity. July should be a topping-out month for Caterpillar and then the bad stuff happens after that into the end of the year.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: CAT is at 952 down -11% off the top 8 trading days ago.

NKE Nike Weekly Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence

In the sea of garbage charts these days, like Scamazon and Sapple, it appeared hopeless to find any ticker on the long side worth a look. Nike receives a bunch of negative publicity again after results were okay. Traders and investors have beaten this sneaker maker to a pulp. Nike was ridden hard and put away wet. Nike is shunned by everyone. It is Branded! Step forward Nike.

As typically happens, when you look at the charts, the real story is far different from the media diatribe. NKE is ready to rock 'n roll. It is set up with positive divergence so it is on the launch pad and all fueled up to explode higher in the weekly time frame. Even better, Nike is possie d across all indicators in the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Wow. That is really something. Nike has been bludgeoned badly in recent years but the worst is over and this stock is going to be one of the handful of winners from here as the year plays out. The falling green wedge is a bullish pattern typically from where stocks launch higher.

For anyone looking for a long to buy, buy NKE. There will probably be a bunch of folks running into buy it tomorrow and next week so do not dilly-daddly. It is fueled up and the fuse is already lit. She is going to fly. Since the broad stock market should pullback with a serious downdraft going forward, NKE may endure some more pain as investors beat the dead horse one more time. That will be great opportunities to buy. Choose your spots going forward but you can buy the dips on this one. Keystone does not own NKE long or short but will probably buy some long after a bit more time is given to see how the broad stock market flushes lower. Ugly Nike, the girl that no one wanted, that worked at the shoe store in the mall over the last few years, is now the most popular girl at the mall. Young folks do not remember malls. Complicated. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: NKE rallies over +8% last week starting to receive the possie d rocket launch on the weekly basis. The Nike daily chart shows price on an island below 46-ish. There is a gap big enough for a blimp to fly through at 46-50. Thus, price likely has more juice in the daily time frame to snag 46. From there it has to make a bounce or die decision and an island reversal pattern would be on the table for a gap-up from 46 to 50. Otherwise, price will likely slowly travel higher and fill the 46-50 gap. The charts say a multi-week rally in Nike has just started and price would be expected to travel higher to 50 or more once traders see that it has bottomed. The monthly chart remains possie d, although the MACD makes an equal low, so NKE is a very attractive long in a stock market that displays nothing but sh*t and garbage as a historical top occurs.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: NKE is at 44 remaining in the choppy sideways slop at 41-46 since April but the weekly chart continues looking bueno for multiple weeks of upside ahead. Put on your running shoes.

AMZN Amazon Monthly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Scamazon Receives the Neggie D Spankdown and Start of a Multi-Month Drawdown

Are you a bag holding sucka in Scamazon? There were a couple of idiots on television today telling folks to buy AMZN with both hands. That's funny. Amazon is cooked, crispy fried, on a long-term multi-month basis. Stick a fork in it. Jeff Bezos knew when to exit stage left. Every investment house and money manager owns funds with Amazon as part of the make up, or recommends that investors keep AMZN in their portfolios. Suckers. It's funny.

The chart above is a POS. What is so hard to understand? Are you blind? You look but you do not see. Let's take a look at the mess. The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern and the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price teeters on the lower rail support of the rising wedge.

Most importantly, the chart is in full negative divergence across all chart indicators. As price made new highs, on the monthly basis, the indicators are now all sloping lower and out of gas unable to take price to new highs again. AMZN receives the initial neggie d spankdown off the top but she has a long ways down to go. The RSI and stochastics are coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback.

The ADX pink boxes show that the last strong trend was higher but it petered out in 2022 as the COVID-19 pandemic came to an end. As Amazon price then recovered and moved higher, the ADX tried to register it as a strong trend but alas, it petered out and all the record highs up in this nosebleed territory are hype and fluff. People are just buying Amazon stock just because it is Amazon. The long players that would buy then sell, then buy again, always looking for the bigger fool, are now looking around realizing no one wants to buy anymore, and accepting that they are the bigger fool left holding the bag.

The Aroon green line shows that most every bull still believes AMZN will go up forever. That is no surprise. They are big bulls for Amazon stock and fanboys. The funny thing is the red line shows that most all the bears also believe that Amazon stock will go up forever.  Everyone is on one side of the boat. The bears have given up on shorting it. You know what happens next and the neggie d spankdown and multi-month pullback has already started.

The stock did a round trip during the COVID-19 pandemic jumping from one hundo up to 180 then coming back down to one hundo as the pandemic ended and the covid endemic phase began (covid behaves like the regular flu now). The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 227 is on the table also the lower band at 184, both rising sharply.

Price is/was extended above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The blue starts show the prior tops where price was extended too far above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200. Those pullbacks were 37 points, 100 points, 50 points, 60 points and 64 points. Thus, we can get mathy with this. Mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo, a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the July 4th party got lost in the mail. Let's say the top is 275 so taking away the smallest pullback at 37 would be a 238 downside target not too far from here. Taking the biggest mean reversion pull back at one hundo points, that would target 175 as the destination over the coming months. If you average the pullbacks, you get 62 points as the average mean reversion so that would target 213.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. If price came down to 220-ish, that opens the door wide to get to 180. The first test is the 12-mth MA at 236. If a stock or index falls below its 12-mth MA it can be considered to be falling into a cyclical bear market.

Amazon is a POS. That is why Bezos ditched it. He milked it for all it was worth and he git while the gittin' was good. Call your money manager and tell them to get you out of Scamazon stock. They will tell you that you are in for the long term. Tell them the ole Wall Street adage that "in the long term you will be dead."

AMZN should continue lower on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year and into 2027. It is reasonable to expect a pullback to the 180-200 area and then it can be reassessed to see how far down she will really go. Keystone is not long or short AMZN and has not played it in a couple years or more. Get out of Scamazon and save yourself while you are able.

On the wekly chart, it receives a neggie d spankdown for the last 5 weeks and is hesitating at the 20 and 50-wk MA's at 231-238. Real trouble begins if this fails. The indicators are agreeable to the sideways hesitation but the MACD remains weak and bleak wanting to see further lows in price on the weekly basis that means the 231 may get tested over the next couple weeks.

On the daily chart, you can see the positive divergence bouncing the stock price now on the daily basis. This may continue a few days. The 50-day MA resistance is at 255. So the daily chart says up, the weekly chart is sideways favoring a downward bias, and the monthly chart is gonzo and has started a multi-month pullback. Of course there will be fits and starts but Scamazon will likely meander lower from now into 2027. That will surprise a lot of people especially those that keep saying buy, buy, buy over the last couple months. They are the bagholders.

Amazon and Apple monthly charts are similar They are receiving the short-term boost in the daily time frame but the long-term charts are challenged. AMZN's monthly chart is cooked as explained above but AAPL is trying to squeeze one last drop out before it begins its long multi-month descent for the remainder of the year into 2027. Plan accordingly. Keystone is not in AAPL long or short either. Amazon women are big and beautiful but California Girls are special. Lovely ladies from the 80's and 90's. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: Scamazon floats higher to 243. If you look at the daily chart, you can see long upper shadows on the price candlesticks that shows that bulls and bears battle and the bears are winning the fight despite price floating higher. The 200-day MA at 233 is key support. The daily chart is expecting a bit more upside in price for a day or few. The weekly chart is chopping sideways. The monthly chart is cooked, totally burnt. The 20-wk MA is 238 and the 50-wk MA is 232. Do you see a confluence? The critical 12-mth MA is at 236. The story is told at 232-238. AMZN bulls win big above 238 (price is at 243). Amazon bears win big below 232 and the 232-238 range is noise. Scamazon will leak lower during July and when 232 fails, you will see the once great Amazon puking in the alleyway next to the dumpster behind the bar.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: AMZN is at 245 trying to remain buoyant with happy talk. The monthly chart is ugly with the multi-month top placed in May due to the negative divergence. She likely has a long way down to go into year-end. Amazon is down -12% off the top in early May nine weeks ago.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side today at SPX 7470. After a couple weeks of teasing, it finally commits. That said, do not be surprised if it whipsaws back to the short side. Volatility was jammed lower today and copper goosed higher. The copper joy created the thrust higher in stocks this morning. As copper goes, so goes the market.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern

The SPX is forming a diamond pattern you can call it a diamond in the rough. An up or down decision will need to be made by price in the coming days and typically, the diamond would be expected to create a reversal to the downside from here. Diamonds Are a Girl's Best Friend.

Diamonds will tend to form after long downside selloffs, or long upside rallies, like now. As stated, it signals a potential trend reversal. The consolidations diamond consists of higher highs and lower lows in the first half creating the expansion behavior, and then followed by lower highs and higher lows in the second half creating the contraction phase and producing the diamond shape. Neither bulls nor bears are in control. Both are fighting each other and the lower highs typically set the stage for a breakdown.

The winner can be determined by the side that crosses their diamond apexes first. If price floats higher now and gets above 7600, a breakout, that tells you the bulls are still going to run and the bears will lose their shirts. What would be expected is a breakdown and this can be confirmed if the 7250-ish is taken out to the downside. The bears would then dance with glee as they slash downward at the bulls tearing flesh.

It is a diamond in the rough since a couple more days may play out before it makes the bounce or die decision. Little Darlin' was a huge hit by The Diamonds. Classic Doo Wop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: The diamond pattern continues with price at the top rail at 7483. It is time to bounce (breakout) or die (stay within the diamond pattern).