SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Long-Term Top Is Placed As Stocks Print All-Time Highs

Raise your hand if you are a jackass that is long the stock market and adding to long positions. Look at that. Every trader on Wall Street raises their hand. The ghost of Irving Fisher floats above the traders proclaiming that the stock market is at a permanently high plateau above SPX 7.2K and will never go below that level ever again.

The month of May begins today and people should be yelling, "May Day! Mayday!" The United States stock market is cooked on the long-term monthly basis. That means stocks will begin dropping and that downward path will continue for many months if not a year or two, or maybe more. You must realize that these all-time highs may not be seen again for many months and perhaps many years.

If you are a young naive person, get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Otherwise, Keystone is going to take your money and send you home to tell your wife that you lost the dough that was for her anniversary present.

The bears should be happy that May starts with a matching and higher price high. That allows the chart indicators to be assessed for negative divergence to see if a top exists, or how far away it may be. The red lines show that we are sitting on the top right now due to neggie d and the picnic bench is about to break and land everyone on the ground, with the ants.

A trip back to the 20-mth MA at 6386 would be in order for starters. The 10-mth MA at 6847 is an early warning signal of pending doom. At 7.2K plus you may not be that concerned, but you will be. The key level is the 12-mth MA at 6751 that dictates a cyclical bear market. Stocks dipped their toes into this realm on the last dip but recovered with that record setting rally in April. If 6751 is lost, all hope is lost in the stock market.

The only hope bulls have would be to push the MACD line up so it is a tiny bit higher than the prior high but even that will only buy another month or two before the top is placed. Can't you understand? There is no hope going forward for the stock market on a long-term monthly basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money selling their shares to the bagholding suckers, the dumb money, over the last couple years. Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway has been trimming stocks for the last couple years. Doesn't everyone worship at his altar?

Are you ready for fun? We are at an historic top as everyone whistles past the graveyard going long with 2x and crazy 3x ETF's. If you are long the stock market, you should be girding your loins. We need some wild music to match the wild times ahead. Born to Be Wild. All of you young folks missed out on the fun, adventure, and trouble, in the 60's and 70's. The road is freedom and some of you idiots place shackles on yourselves with an electric vehicle POS. You be dumb. Get a motor underneath you and you will never be the same. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and oil moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day. Trumpski claims that he will help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz but it sounds like more hollow rhetoric. He says he wants to help countries that are 'victims of circumstance'. That is what Curly Joe of The Three Stooges would say as an excuse for his actions.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Uber Bullish Optimism and Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness at Stock Market Top

After Keystone has explained the topping process the last couple posts, the SPX daily chart has finally arrived at the neggie d top. The uber multi-year low CPC and CPCE put/calls signal rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market and, just like the March downdraft, traders and investors must pay for their uber bullish optimism by losing their Money.

The Aroon green line shows that every single bull in the stock market, 100%, believe that stocks will continue higher forever. Humorously, the red line down at 12% shows that nearly all the bears also believe that stocks will go up forever. The Aroon directly verifies the ridiculous positive sentiment in the put/calls.

As previously mentioned, the SPX can run a couple hundo points higher after the low put/calls and it may take a week or two to top out (unlike years ago where a top would occur days after the low put/calls). Honey, we're home.

As also previously explained, Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down, so the breach of SPX 6800 on the way up was key since it opened the door to 7200. It was a twisted path with the March swoon in the middle but it got there. Price is at 7209 so 7208 was breached so 7212 will likely print. If 7218 is tagged, 7220 is next and if 7228 is attained, that will likely lead to 7232.

The daily chart above is finally topped out with full neggie d across all indicators (red lines) so the 7220-7230 area is a logical place from which the stock market will start its down move on the daily basis. You had to wait for the SPX daily chart to top out with negative divergence and the pesky MACD line was not cooperating. The kittens are finally herded and price is topped out now with neggie d and a down move on the daily basis should begin. The only thing that can stop it would be happy talk such as the Iran War ending or the Strait of Hormuz opening or other such rosy words.

Focus on the MACD line. It is definitely sloping down as price printed another high locking in neggie d but you have to give it a day or so to make sure. The MACD line is flat as a newlywed's souffle so it would not take much for the bulls to try and jam price higher to boost the MACD a tiny bit for a matching or higher high. This would extend the top but only by a day or two. If the MACD line remains sloping down, the top is in on the daily basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The upper standard deviation band was violated so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 6976 rising sharply, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6579 rising sharply. The volume was robust yesterday. Bobby Bagholder, Savita Sucker, Freddie Fool, Carmelita Retail and Antoine Sixpack could not buy shares fast enough. The two blue circles show distribution days where the so-called smart money is dumping shares on the dumb money idiots listed above. Are you ready to hold the bag? It is fun watching the human reactions especially when they are losing their shirts.

You have been patient waiting for the top to form on the daily basis and it is now topped out with neggie d. Plan accordingly. The SPX 2-hour chart remains in neggie d, however, it is feeling the thrust from yesterday, so it may take a few hours today for the neggie d negativity to soak into everyone's bones. Plan your trading today and next week knowing that a historic Black Monday or Black Tuesday may occur next week. These set-ups have been occurring, like last week, but the happy talk has been delaying the inevitable. Of course if negative news occur, it will act as an accelerator and catalyst for the downside.

AI will likely not live up to the hype in the near-term; it is something that will need to grow and find its way over the next 4 to 8 years before companies likely see a benefit. They tell you AI is increasing productivity now, but that is because they are using it as an excuse to get rid of the dead wood, then take their tasks and dump them on the remaining employees. There's your efficiency. Make sure you tell your kid that you cannot go to their big soccer game because you are kissing the boss's arse. Is this your life? Pity you. Cats in the Cradle.

Today, May Day, is Mexico's Labor Day. How come they celebrate labor by taking a siesta? They have to rest-up for the Cinco de Mayo parties in 4 days. Since there are many cockroaches in the markets now that are starting to show themselves as the lights are turned on, it is only fitting to sing La Cucaracha. Keystone was handed a "SPX 7.2K" hat but gave it to Carmelita. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:20 AM EST: Iran War happy talk occurs so S&P futures pop +22 points as oil prices and volatility drops. It is a minor blip. Are traders getting sick of the Iran War baby games?

Note Added 6:03 PM EST: Wheee! Whooopie! Happy Days are here again. Iran War happy talk creates an orgy party for stocks. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7272.52 and new all-time closing high at 7230.12 today, Friday, 5/1/26. Price settled a big 42 points off the intraday high. That behavior is evidenced by the Shooting Star candlestick, that is not the same as the Bad Company song Shooting Star, that printed today on the daily chart. Johnny was a school boy, when he heard his first Beatles song. The bulls drove price higher out of the gate celebrating the Iran War hype but the bears spanked price down, way down to where it started, creating the shooting star. Note that the end of day SPX point gain is what it was in the S&P futures when the Iran hype news hit this morning. The shooting star typically signals a reversal. Johnny made a record, it went straight up to number one. The MACD line is a tiny hair higher due to the rally today but stick a fork in the piece of sh*t. It's cooked and has topped out or will early next week. If you did not throw longs overboard and bring on shorts today, especially after the orgy open, shame on you. Next week may be historic for the stock market and talked about for decades to come. Johnny's life passed him by, like a warm summer day, if you listen to the wind, you can still hear him play. King Donnie Trumpski needs to accept the fact that he created a mess in the Middle East and he has to open the Strait of Hormuz, period. Even if it takes the Marines going in; they know what they are doing. Donnie created the mess and has to fix it, otherwise, China may get aggressive in waterways in and around Taiwan and other Asian nations. First, fire power has to be used to clear the Strait and then, second, it will still take time because insurers will not want to step up to guarantee the cargoes unless the military opens the strait and stays in control and on guard, or if the USA acts as an insurer. There is no other solution. Perhaps Donnie starts the operation this weekend? The new moon is 5/16/26 so if the Marines go in, they need maximum cover of darkness using their superior night vision. Perhaps a window of 5/14/26 through 5/21/26 is on tap for Trumpski's so-called 'all-Hell to break out' in Iran again? King Donnie has likely not given any thought for a potential humanitarian crisis occurring in Iran due to the blockade (millions of people starving). Memorial Day is coming and The Swing Dolls are warming up back stage and ready to cheer the military for the pending Strait of Hormuz operation. It's always a great show when the audience participates.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and oil moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day. Trumpski claims that he will help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz but it sounds like more hollow rhetoric. He says he wants to help countries that are 'victims of circumstance'. That is what Curly Joe of The Three Stooges would say as an excuse for his actions.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips long today at SPX 7175 at munch time. Let's see what the bulls got.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Setting Up with Neggie-D Top; Fed Rate Decision, Chairman Powell Farewell Presser and Iran War Blockade Drama On Tap

The watch for the negative divergence top on the SPX daily chart continues. But All Along the Watchtower, the joker said to the thief that the pesky MACD line refuses to roll over and die. No reason to get excited, there are many here among us, that feel life is but a joke. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7178.74 and new all-time closing high at 7173.91 on Monday, 4/27/26.

The top cannot be called until ALL the chart indicators go neggie d. The red lines show that all the indicators are negatively diverged down away from the rising price except the MACD. It may need a down-up jog to allow time for the MACD line to go neggie d, joining the other indicators, and the top can be called on the daily basis. The MACD is stretched high so the SPX may reverse at anytime regardless of the MACD going neggie d.

The Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell final swan song press conference is tomorrow that will create market drama. Also, Iran is staging many ships ahead of the US naval blockade and you can smell a run at the blockade perhaps on tap. Oil prices rise with both Brent and WTIC over one hundo. That will be a sight and a worldwide event if Iran cranks up a couple dozen ships and tankers and they all motor towards the same spot of the naval blockade. It will not be anything good for the world.

King Donnie Trumpski's Iran War plan now involves sitting and waiting a couple weeks and more until Iran can no longer store anymore oil and will have to shut down plants and wells that are difficult to restart. That is a stupid plan. There are probably 3 weeks of storage still available and maybe they dump the oil out on the ground for a while? Donnie is burning $2 billion a day of US taxpayers money on a strategy that is sitting around and waiting for 2 or 3 weeks hoping a good ending comes to the war and the Strait of Hormuz mess. Good luck.

That weekend gala in Washington, DC, where the corrupt politicians and media comingle perpetuating the filthy crony capitalism system, remains big news. How come no one has asked why the so-called mentalist at the event did not tell everyone ahead of time what was going to happen? People wonder why that nutcase dude went berserk. Maybe he didn't like the veal?

It does not appear the shooter fired the shotgun but the secret service fired about five shots at close range and none of the bullets hit the guy. What size bird shot was loaded in the shotgun (a shotgun shell contains small BB's that spray out)? Double-O (00) buckshot? No one has asked such a simple and obvious question. An agent may have been hit but if it was the shotgun, he would have been hit with BB's in the face, arms and legs. Maybe it was friendly fire, one of those five shots that hit the agent, in that case it would be the Keystone Kops.

There should be no such event where the people reporting on the news are lying in hotel beds with the politicians that create the news. Everyone forgot about Charlie Rose. The 30-year old lip-gloss beauties line up one after another wanting to get an interview with a politician to launch their own media careers. Hello Senator X, I'm Missy and would like to interview you. Well, young lady, I am very busy. I know, sir, but I would not mind if you ran your hand up my leg. Oh, I see, I do have an opening on Wednesday, Missy. We can discuss an interview then. It will be a delightful meeting. And that is what the Whitehouse Correspondents dinner event is all about. How convenient that it is at a hotel. Maybe we can consummate that interview tonight, baby doll? What's Your Name? Come upstairs little girl, and have a drink of champagne, there ain't no shame.

Anyhoo, stocks are up 80% of the time the couple days in front of the Fed meetings. Recently, more retail traders must be aware of this because it is front-run more each time. Traders and investors are bulled-up going into the Fed meeting but is this one of the 20% times?

The put/calls registered the multi-week lows forecasting a major selloff ahead. Remember, the SPX could still pop a hundo or two hundo, and it is up about a 150 points since the put/call lows about 1-1/2 weeks ago. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. The Fed and the Iran War oil drama are coming to a head right now today and tomorrow.

The expectation is for the dark blue line to occur where stocks drop from here due to the neggie d, or perform a down-up jog move so that would be down today, up tomorrow, for the top. The light blue line shows the outcome if Fed and Iran War happy talk occurs. Stocks will remain buoyant for a few days but not escape the neggie d. The top will simply occur a few more days into the future. The orange gaps will need filled below. It appears that the rest of the week will likely be filled with lots of excitement and drama. There is lots of drama with Fleetwood Mac's live performance since the band had interpersonal relationships with each other. Go Your Own Way. Top-shelf performance. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:44 PM EST: Today is a holding pattern day with everyone waiting for Pope Powell to come down from On High tomorrow and tell global traders how to trade. It is Powell's last meeting as chairman so everyone wants to hear what his plans are going forward. Chairman Warsh is on deck. He is up for his approval vote tomorrow so who knows, he may be the chairman by dinner time, instead of Powell waiting 2 more weeks? It will all come out in the Warsh. Today is down due to the the neggie d but the MACD remains pesky. If you are bearish, it would have been better for the SPX price to come out of the gate at the all-time price highs. That, along with the MACD now sloping down, would be neggie d, but instead price and the MACD both went down today together. An up move back to the all-time highs tomorrow would be in order, that would lock in the negative divergence for the MACD, and the top will finally be in on the daily basis, unless Powell has something different in mind. He did pick up his white dove wings at the cleaners this evening. The drama continues. Meatloaf and drama go together. He is now eating that big greasy hamburger in heaven. Everyone remembers high school and the drive-in theater with your honey and experiencing Paradise by the Dashboard Light.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/30/26: Lots of drama this week. The SPX prints a new all-time high today at 7219.83 and new all-time closing high at 7209.01. Remember, the MACD did not top-out properly with neggie d so price needed to come up again and voila, today it does with the new highs. Look at the MACD and all other indicators. Yes, they are finally ALL in negative divergence so the top is in on the daily basis, but, give it a day or so because the MACD is only sloping down by a single hair. If momentum carries through for Friday, that may be enough to push the MACD a hair higher again delaying the top to early next week. We are close now. It is going on a couple weeks since the low put/calls and neggie d is at hand on the daily basis. Watch your wallet. The Secret Service spins more yarns about the shooting at the gala. They even show pictures perhaps freshly doctored from the lab. It is easy to be a conspiracy theorist when you catch people in lies. That Pirro lady that does Donnie's dirty work, her husband was pardoned at the end of Trump's first term, and others insinuate a bullet came from the shotgun and that is stupid. A shotgun does not shoot a bullet. The officer engaging the nutcase had bare sleeves and should have been scarred with BB's if the shotgun was fired at him. How does he get hit in the chest when he saw the shooter coming at him and he was already in a shooting position himself with his hands and gun in front of his chest that was supposed to be hit? Where are all the BB's that should be lying on the rug and embedded in ceiling tile? Dollars to doughnuts that the Secret Service or FBI will clarify tomorrow that the shotgun was shooting a rifled slug that was a solo projectile that hit the officer's chest. That will cover up some lies but create other problems since the dude obviously used a shotgun because he wanted to use shot (a shotgun shell is full of BB's it is not a bullet) that would scatter and maim and hurt the most people. You cannot trust anything you are told these days. All the idiot media has to do is ask what size shot was in the shotgun shell in the gun that was fired. They knew that two minutes after the incident occurred when they unloaded the shell from the shotgun and looked at other shells he may have had on his body. Easy-peasy but days go by and instead, as usual, Americans are treated like mushrooms (kept in the dark and fed a bunch of sh*t). Is it a friendly fire cover-up?

VIX Volatility and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts

Everybody is bullish the stock market. Father Regis at the local Parish took all the collection basket money to a broker in town that placed it all in NVDA stock. The shoeshine boy, doorman, taxi cab driver, and Uber and Lyft drivers, are telling everyone to buy the market before it is too late. They are placing entire paychecks in semiconductor stocks and the broad indexes. Life is one big party with nothing but riches and joy ahead for all. 

The multi-year lows in the CPC and CPCE put/calls tells you that a significant top is at hand for the US stock market and can occur any day forward. Perhaps a look at volatility may shed light on the matter.

At the end of March, all hope was lost. Timmy Trader ran across the trading floor and jumped out of the window because he could no longer handle the irate calls from clients losing money hand over fist. Fortunately, Timmy is on the ground floor. The VIX continued higher over 30 as the blood flowed on Wall and Broad. Of course, stocks tumble lower when volatility rises but at the end of March it was time for a relief rally.

Who knew that the relief rally would be a rocket ride setting records with the SPX gaining +1% per day for 14 straight days. Relief rallies in downdrafts are known to be sharp and strong but this one was for the record books. The VIX collapses into the mid-20's as April begins sending stocks higher. The VIX and SPX are inversely correlated and move opposite to one another over 90% of the time.

Note in early April, volatility pops higher again but the SPX price only moves sideways and does not drop. That is testimony to how fast everyone turned bullish and no one wanted to miss the bull train leaving the station. All aboard! This Train Is Bound For Glory. The buy the dip crowd is unstoppable. The worse the news, the higher the stock market. People are trained to be optimistic so they will be pie-eyed happy buying stocks until they are smacked in the face with a 2x4.

Everything is groovy during April with the VIX dropping and stocks running higher, until 4/17/26. Perhaps filing taxes dampened the mood. The VIX bottomed a week ago, about when the put/calls printed their multi-year lows. The VIX is higher ever since, but the stock market does not drop, it continues higher. Something is wrong with this picture. Either the VIX must immediately begin dropping to a 16 and 17 handle (thin green line), or stocks are going to roll over and die.

The VIX spent much of the week above 19. The blue circle shows you a distribution day. That is the institutions (so-called smart money) selling to the dumb money at the top. The dip-buyers and fearless bulls such as Joe Sixpack, Ronnie Retail, Carmelita Bagholder and Savita Sucka are buying stocks like crazy believing they will be on easy street in just a few short weeks or months. Every top needs suckers.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is calling out VIX 19.74 as a key line in the sand. Bulls are fine if the VIX remains below. If the VIX moves above 19.74, the wheels will start falling off the stock market.

The SPX prints an all-time high at 7168.59 and all-time closing high at 7165.08 on Friday, 4/24/26, with rampant complacency, fearlessness, and uber bullish optimism. What could possibly go wrong? Monday would be a perfect time for a crash maybe a Black Monday, or a Black Tuesday? In a white room, with black curtains, where the shadows run from themselves. White Room by Cream. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Setting Up with Neggie D

Are yinz having fun yet? Remember, the prior charts show the 2-hour topping out with neggie d forecasting weakness in the VST and that started on Monday. At the same time, the daily chart was not yet topped out with negative divergence, so the bears had more wood to chop before they can create the top in the daily time frame, and that occurs this week with chop suey price action.

The blue lines show the megapone (expansion) pattern previously explained. This daily chart shows the obscene gap-up moves that occurred during the orgy rally (orange circles). Price has tried to fill the top gap a couple times but the dip buyers want higher equity prices and they are willing to buy with both fists. The gap at 6600-6750 is big enough to drive a bus through it. Those gaps will need filled going forward.

Now let's get down to business. You cannot call the top until you see neggie d. For 5 days in a row, price makes matching or higher highs. The SPX, that is the S&P 500, that is the United States stock market, prints a new all-time high at 7147.78 yesterday, 4/23/26, only pennies above the prior all-time high last Friday. Since price remains buoyant, the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence.

The red lines show neggie d galore and the RSI and stochastics, even money flow, are at or coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback. There is one fly in the ointment, however. The green line shows that the MACD line remains long and strong and wants to see another matching or higher high in price. Waiting for all the indicators to align can be like herding kittens.

Here is the story. Price should open around the same levels for the regular cash session. If the MACD line drops finally sloping lower, you can call the top on the daily basis. If, however, the MACD line continues higher, price likely needs another jog move (down, up, or up, down, up), so the top on the daily basis will still be a couple days away, say on Monday or Tuesday, to begin the new week of trading. The chart is very close to its neggie d top right now. You will know today if today is the top on the daily basis, or if you have to wait for early next week.

The Aroon verifies the multi-year lows that printed for the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios. The bullishness remains off the charts with traders and investors partying all day long buying any stock with a heartbeat. It is rampant complacency and fearlessness the hallmark of a significant stock market top. The Aroon green line at 100% shows that every single bull expects stocks to go up forever.

It is comical because this pending top is just like the prior top with all the same analysts calling for SPX 8K again and equities going to the moon. The ghost of Irving Fisher appears again hovering above Wall and Broad just like a few months ago. In an eerie voice, Fisher's hologram proclaims that stocks are at a permanently high plateau and will never drop below SPX 7K ever again. This same behavior occurred from the end of last year into February when the wheels fell off the stock market.

JPM raises its SPX target to 8K for this year. Analyst Ed Yardeni proclaims that the bottom was the end of March and you will not see those lows again. Yardeni says buy stocks touting the strong earnings projections ahead. The bulls line up one after another wearing tee shirts that have a picture of Irving Fisher screen printed on the chest. Truist's Keith Lerner says the bull market is battle tested telling folks to buy the dips. He says the tech bull market is strong and has a long way to go. Strategas analyst Chris Verrone decrees that the stock market has durability and equities will be higher six months out. Remember, you can't win all the time. You Got to Lose.

Check the MACD line after the opening bell to see if the top is in on the daily basis, or not. Keybot the Quant robot went short yesterday but the move is tenuous. VIX 19.74 is the bull/bear line in the sand that tells you who wins. Bulls win below VIX 19.74 (VIX is at 19.30 in real-time as this is typed). Bears win above VIX 19.74. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4/25/26: Friday was orgy time. The bulls kept the VIX below 19 sending stocks higher. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 7168.59 and new all-time closing high at 7165.08. Happy Days Are Here Again. La, la, la, la, la, la, la. Everyone is singing songs and carryin' on, swigging down Fed wine and smoking Iran War happy talk crack. It is fun to watch. Yardeni now proclaims that stocks are headed for a melt-up. He should pass around what he is smoking. Blackrock's Russ Koesterich decrees that the stock market is "resilient" so buy, buy, buy. The big banks such as JPM and MS tell Joe Retail to buy stocks since big gains are expected for the weeks and months ahead. As they say in the Bronx, "good luck wit dat." The SPX prints the higher high and the daily chart indicators above remain the same. The pesky MACD line does not yet go neggie d so you cannot call the top on the daily basis until all the kittens are herded. The same scenario is in place as explained above. If price opens Monday at these highs, and the MACD line is finally sloping downward, negatively diverging down away from price that keeps floating higher, and joins all the other indicators that are neggie d, you can call the top on the daily basis. If, however, the MACD continues higher, you will still have to wait for the neggie d to form. It looks like Monday and Tuesday are good candidates for the daily chart to top out but you have to wait for the neggie d to make sure. Remember, the rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market must be reckoned with. The put/calls printed the multi-year lows about a week ago so stay on guard for stocks to roll over and die at anytime forward.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today after munch time at SPX 7095. Volatility is controlling the stock market now. Bulls win with lower volatility (a lower VIX) while bears will win and create negativity if volatility rises (a higher VIX).

Keybot the Quant

Coronavirus Chronology Aftermath Now Available from Amazon

The Coronavirus Chronology Aftermath is the fourth book in the Coronavirus Chronology series published via Amazon. The Coronavirus Chronology Aftermath is the historical record of the COVID-19 endemic phase, that started in February 2023, through July 2025. Of course, the covid endemic phase continues where the virus now behaves like the regular flu. There are three times more flu cases than COVID-19 over the last two winters so the US returns to pre-pandemic respiratory virus patterns.

The Coronavirus Chronology three-volume set with 1,000 charts is the COVID-19 pandemic bible. It is the daily real-time historical record of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic. It is not revisionist story-telling. It is the raw truth about the pandemic recorded and chronicled in real-time as it unfolded.

The United States battled eight infection waves, and the world fought 10 waves, during the COVID-19 pandemic from late 2019 to February 2023. The Coronavirus Chronology with 1,000 charts is the only daily real-time historical record of the entire 3-1/2 year COVID-19 tragedy.

Relive each day of the COVID-19 pandemic in real-time. You will be astounded at the things you forgot about the pandemic, and you will remember the ugly things that you wanted to forget. The Coronavirus Chronology is the raw unbiased pandemic truth that was recorded in real-time without any allegiance to the corrupt political parties.

For anyone seriously impacted mentally or physically by the COVID-19 pandemic, and looking for closure, or learning to live with the ugly memories of misery and death, reading the events in real-time again may help you heal. You have to get all those thoughts up and out of your body if you want to heal and live the life you deserve.

The table of contents for the four books in the Coronavirus Chronology series are shown below. Reading the titles below should bring back memories for everyone. Americans and global citizens must understand that the COVID-19 pandemic changed our lives and that for many, it continues to have an impact years later.

 

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY VOLUME 1 OF 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY

ABOUT K E STONE (KEYSTONE)

COVID-19 PANDEMIC OVERVIEW

READING GUIDE

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY

2019 SEPTEMBER; Nefarious Activity at Wuhan Institute of Virology in China

2019 OCTOBER; Gates Foundation “Event 201” Simulates a Global Coronavirus Outbreak

2019 NOVEMBER; First Novel Coronavirus Illness in China

2019 DECEMBER; Chinese Doctors Muzzled by CCP

2020 JANUARY; Coronavirus Identified in United States

2020 FEBRUARY; WHO Names Coronavirus ‘COVID-19’; Fear of a Pandemic Escalates Worldwide

2020 MARCH; US and Worldwide Wave 1; WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic; Covid Infections Increasing Exponentially; 200K Cases in America 4.3K Dead

2020 APRIL; 250K Dead Worldwide; 50K Americans Dead

2020 MAY; Over 1.8 Million US Cases 100K Dead; US Unemployment Rate 14.7%; ‘#China Lied People Died’

2020 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 2; 10 Million Cases Worldwide 500K Dead; 3 Million Cases in America 130K Dead; New York Governor Cuomo Nursing Home Scandal

2020 JULY; Pandemic Turns Political; 800K Dead Worldwide; 150K Americans Dead

2020 AUGUST; One American Dies Every Minute; Rules Touted for Masks and Social Distancing; Telemedicine Flourishes; 970K Dead Worldwide; 195K Americans Dead

2020 SEPTEMBER; US and Worldwide Wave 3; Trump Admits to Lying About Pandemic to Avoid Creating Panic; 1 Million Dead Worldwide; 220K Dead Americans

2020 OCTOBER; Trump Hospitalized and Recovers; Trump Says ‘Learn to Live with It’; Biden Says ‘We’re Learning to Die with It’; US Exceeds 100K Cases Per Day; 1.3 Million Dead Worldwide; 240K Americans Dead

2020 NOVEMBER; One American Dies Every 30 Seconds; Trump Loses Election to Biden but Will Not Concede; US Exceeds 200K Cases Per Day; 60 Million Cases Worldwide

2020 DECEMBER; Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA Vaccinations Begin; Over 80 Million Cases Worldwide 1.9 Million Dead; Over 20 Million US Cases 380K Dead

2021 JANUARY; COVID-19 Culling the Elderly; 100 Million Cases Worldwide 2 Million Dead; 480K Americans Dead

2021 FEBRUARY; Worldwide Wave 4; 2.5 Million Dead Worldwide; 520K Americans Dead

2021 MARCH; US Wave 4; Vaccine Inequality; Blood Clots; COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Messaging Changes to ‘Preventing Hospitalization and Death’

2021 APRIL; 100 Million Americans Vaccinated; Breakthrough Cases; Pfizer Says Third Shot Needed; 3 Million Dead Worldwide; India Outbreak (Delta)

2021 MAY; Myocarditis Cases Increase; Monoclonal Antibodies (mAb) Successful Treatment; Fauci Questioned About Funding Gain of Function Research at Wuhan Labs; 3.7 Million Dead Worldwide; 600K Americans Dead

2021 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 5 (Delta); WHO Names Variants with Greek Letters; Fauci is ‘Mr Science’

 

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY VOLUME 2 OF 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY

ABOUT K E STONE (KEYSTONE)

COVID-19 PANDEMIC OVERVIEW

READING GUIDE

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY

2021 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 5 (Delta); WHO Names Variants with Greek Letters; Fauci is ‘Mr Science’

2021 JULY; “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated”; Vaccine Mandates; Censorship; 80% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Overweight and Obese; 4 Million Dead Worldwide

2021 AUGUST; Vaccinated People Spreading Virus; FDA Officials Resign Protesting Rushed Booster Shots; 4.6 Million Dead Worldwide; 670K Americans Dead

2021 SEPTEMBER; Biden 6-Point Plan; Biden Blames Pandemic and Flailing Economy on Unvaccinated; 700K Americans Dead More Than 1918 Spanish Flu

2021 OCTOBER; US and Worldwide Wave 6 (Omicron); Waning Vaccine Effectiveness; Vaccinated Versus Unvaccinated; Testosterone May Play Role in Myocarditis; ‘Disease X’; 250 Million Cases Worldwide 5 Million Dead

2021 NOVEMBER; Biden Is Incompetent at Handling Pandemic Like Trump; Biden Approval Rating Plummets; 50 Million US Cases 820K Dead

2021 DECEMBER; Pfizer’s Paxlovid Pill Approved; 80% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; Breakthrough Cases Escalate; US Life Expectancy Drops from 79 to77; UK “Partygate”; 5.5 Million Dead Worldwide

2022 JANUARY; One American Dies Every Minute; Omicron Cases Peak in US; “Flurona”; “Twindemic”; Trucker’s “Freedom Convoy”; 77 Million US Cases 930K Dead

2022 FEBRUARY; US Wave 6 “Inverted V” or “Ice Pick” Chart Pattern Ending; Russia Invades Ukraine

2022 MARCH; US Wave 7a and Worldwide Wave 7; “Deltacron”; US Vaccination Rate Plummets; China Virus Kills 6 Million Worldwide and 1 Million Americans

 

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY VOLUME 3 OF 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY

ABOUT K E STONE (KEYSTONE)

COVID-19 PANDEMIC OVERVIEW

READING GUIDE

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY

2022 MARCH; US Wave 7a and Worldwide Wave 7; “Deltacron”; US Vaccination Rate Plummets; China Virus Kills 6 Million Worldwide and 1 Million Americans

2022 APRIL; Omicron Subvariants; Gridiron Dinner Superspreader Event; Denmark Ends COVID-19 Vaccination Program; 500 Million Cases Worldwide 6.3 Million Dead; 80 Million US Cases 1 Million Dead

2022 MAY; Worldwide Wave 8; Breakthrough Cases Galore; One-Half of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; China in Lockdown Killing Pets as Zero-Covid Strategy Fails; North Korea Outbreak; “Pandemic Treaty”

2022 JUNE; US Wave 7b and Worldwide Wave 9; Global Cases Drop Below 500K Per Day; US Covid Deaths Drop Below 200 Per Day

2022 JULY; Pharmacists Prescribe Paxlovid; Biden Sick with COVID-19 Again and Experiences Paxlovid Rebound; Global Cases Pop Above 1 Million Per Day with 2K Deaths Per Day

2022 AUGUST; Natural Immunity Better than 2 Vaccine Doses; Censorship of COVID-19 Information; Fauci Resigns; 600 Million Cases Worldwide 6.5 Million Dead

2022 SEPTEMBER; 85% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Seniors Over 65 Years Old; Biden Stupidly Proclaims the ‘Pandemic is Over’; Global Cases Drop Below 400K Per Day with 1.3K Deaths Per Day

2022 OCTOBER; US Wave 8; Biden’s COVID-19 Deaths at 662K Are 1-1/2 Times Trump’s 441K Deaths; Fauci’s Net Worth Increases by $5 Million to $13 Million Total During Pandemic; “Tripledemic”

2022 NOVEMBER; Worldwide Wave 10; 60% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; “Pandemic of the Vaccinated”; Fauci Questioned Under Oath About Origins of COVID-19 but “Cannot Recall”; 100 Million US Cases 1.1 Million Dead

2022 DECEMBER; 90% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Seniors Over 65 Years Old and 15% Are Nursing Home Residents; “Pandemic of the Elderly”; “Scrabble Variants”; “Died Suddenly” Documentary; US Vaccination Rate Drops

2023 JANUARY; Fauci Finally Retires; Pfizer Executive Taped Saying Covid Vaccines Are “Cash Cows”; Global Cases Drop Below 150K Per Day; COVID-19 Transitioning from Pandemic to Endemic Phase

2023 FEBRUARY; COVID-19 Pandemic Ends and Endemic Phase Begins; Coronavirus Chronology Attacked by Censorship Again; Global Cases Drop Below 100K Per Day; 680 Million Cases Worldwide 6.8 Million Dead; 105 Million US Cases 1.16 Million Dead; One in Every 300 Americans Died from Covid During Pandemic

 

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY AFTERMATH

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY AFTERMATH

ABOUT K E STONE (KEYSTONE)

COVID-19 PANDEMIC OVERVIEW

READING GUIDE

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY AFTERMATH

2023 FEBRUARY; FBI and DOE Say COVID-19 Virus Likely Originated from Wuhan Lab Leak

2023 MARCH; US Government and Social Media Platforms Exposed for Censorship During Pandemic

2023 APRIL; Fingerpointing Continues

2023 MAY; WHO Declares End to the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency; US Ends COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Declaration

2023 JUNE; Only 17% of Americans Took the COVID-19 Booster Shot Over the Last 9 Months

2023 JULY; Senator Paul Asks DOJ to Investigate Fauci for Lying to Congress

2023 AUGUST; Pentagon Says COVID-19 Likely Originated from Lab Leak

2023 SEPTEMBER; CDC Stupidly Recommends COVID-19 Vaccine for Everyone 6 Months and Older

2023 OCTOBER; Senator Paul Says Covid Vaccine Is More Dangerous than the Virus for Children 15 Years Old and Younger

2023 NOVEMBER; COVID-19 Fall Booster Shot Uptake Is Pitiful; Americans Have Moved on from Pandemic

2023 DECEMBER; Covid Vaccine Rate Drops to Pitiful 60K Shots Per Day

2024 JANUARY; Fauci Testifies to Congress Saying “I Don’t Know (Recall)” 200 Times; Fauci Admits that the Staying Six-Feet Apart Rule Was Not Based on Any Data

2024 FEBRUARY; Heart Disease and Attacks Increase Post-Covid (Due to Vaccines?)

2024 MARCH; WSJ Posits that COVID-19 Was Laboratory Synthesized (Not from Nature) and Likely Leaked from the Wuhan Lab

2024 APRIL; Study Suggests Long-Covid May Be Due to the Covid Illness and/or the Covid Vaccines; Airlines Experiencing Serious Maintenance Problems and Mishaps (Because of the Stupid Covid Vaccine Mandates?)

2024 MAY; AstraZeneca Admits that the COVID-19 Vaccine Causes TTS (Blood Clots)

2024 JUNE; Fauci Testifies Before the House Select Committee on the Coronavirus Pandemic; Cancer Increases Post-Covid

2024 JULY; CDC and Jha Warn of a Mild Summer Covid Wave; Fauci Blames Trump and Others for Pandemic Mistakes

2024 AUGUST; Six-Times Vaccinated Fauci Tests Positive for COVID-19 for Third Time; Meta (Facebook) CEO Zuckerberg Regrets His Censorship of COVID-19 Content

2024 SEPTEMBER; Stanford University Symposium Hosted by Dr Jay Battacharya Discusses COVID-19 Pandemic

2024 OCTOBER; Shocking Study from England Concluded that Myocarditis and/or Pericarditis Only Appeared in Children and Adolescents that Received the COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines

2024 NOVEMBER; Former President Trump Reelected and Appoints Robert F Kennedy to Head HHS, Dr Marty Makary to Run FDA, and Dr Jay Bhattacharya to Head the NIH

2024 DECEMBER; House Select Subcommittee on Coronavirus Pandemic Releases 520-Page Report Concluding that Pandemic Originated from Wuhan Lab Leak

2025 JANUARY; US Quad-Demic of Flu, COVID-19, RSV and Norovirus; CIA Agrees with FBI and DOE that COVID-19 Likely Originated from Wuhan Lab Leak

2025 FEBRUARY; Flu Deaths Surpass COVID-19 Deaths; President Trump Rescinds All COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates; Children Remain Half-Year Behind in Math and Reading After the Pandemic

2025 MARCH; 74% of Americans Say COVID-19 Took a Toll on Their Lives

2025 APRIL; COVID-19 Vaccine Stocks Crash as Most Americans Unwilling to Take Further mRNA Shots

2025 MAY; President Trump Bans Funding of Gain of Function Research; US Health Officials Delayed Warning the Public about Myocarditis Risk from Vaccines; COVID-19 Vaccines Removed from Childhood Vaccine Schedule; Novavax Receives FDA Approval for Protein-Based (non mRNA) COVID-19 Vaccine

2025 JUNE; Newly Appointed Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Led By Chairman Martin Kulldorff Holds First Meeting

2025 JULY; Americans and Citizens Worldwide Move on with Life after the COVID-19 Pandemic 2019 to 2023 and the Covid Endemic Phase 2023 to 2025