WTIC Crude Oil Daily Chart; Iran War Explained; Oil Remains Above Pre-Iran War Prices; Head and Shoulders (H&S) Pattern; Cup and Handle (C&H) Pattern

Oil is all the rage these days with Donnie's Iran War one-half year along. Bonehead veep Vance says the Iran War is not a war, no, don't believe your lying eyes, it is but a small skirmish, a conflict, do not fret over the 18 brave service members that already gave their lives as well as the 1,000 injured. The government tally says 750 are injured from the Iran War, but they lie, so it is likely closer to a thousand that are maimed or scarred for life. No, that is not a war. 'What a stupid statement', as President Trump says when he denigrates reporters in public that he invited into the Oval Office.

The chart above explains the Iran War with oil and gasoline prices. Donnie starts the Iran War at the end of February thinking that he can wipe out the entire terrorist regime. He does wipe out the top officials but other heads of the radical Islamist snake immediately appear. Oil prices explode higher and that in turn causes gasoline prices at the pump to jump higher as well as all goods and services since gasoline makes the economy go round.

King Donnie became worried about the mid-term elections while at the same time realizing that the world is now in the Drone Warfare Era. The Strait of Hormuz becomes the focal point since 20 million barrels of oil flow through the chokepoint each day, or used to flow through. Iranian drones fitted with warheads, that only cost $20K or $30K each, can easily pick off ships in the strait and the US military cannot use expensive missiles indefinitely to take them out. Welcome to the Drone Warfare Age. Dumb Donnie ceased military operations trying to negotiate a deal with radical terrorists. It never made sense since the radical Islamists will not follow any agreement, but Trumpski had to learn that for himself. He is not that smart considering that everyone else already knew that even the Uber driver.

Oil and gasoline prices drop in May and June as hope sprung eternal about the MOU (memo of understanding). The weak agreement limped over the finish line only to implode days later. The MOU was DOA. WTIC crude, West Texas Intermediate, oil came back down to 67 but never made it back to the pre-Iran War lower prices. Now oil jumps higher again taking gasoline prices higher. Americans are getting hosed at the pump while the orange head tells everyone it is no big deal to pay a 'little bit more at the pump'. Spoken like a true rich kid that grew up with a silver spoon in his orange mouth.

The H&S pattern formed after the initial jump higher in oil prices occurred. It is a Quasimodo head and shoulders with 3 right shoulders. Nonetheless, the neckline is at 87-ish, and head at 112-ish, that is a difference of 25 dollars. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why the Amvets Club rescinded Keystone's invitation to the spring festival. The club has also banned math jokes from the facility. What did the constipated mathematician do? He worked it out with his pencil.

If the H&S neck gives way, 62 would be the downside target (87-25), and price fell to 67 in the neighborhood but not quite there. The MOU started falling apart and with news of oil tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz, all bets were off, and prices run higher again.

A C&H pattern forms with price exactly at the breakout point at 91-93. Will it breakout or receive a spankdown from this critical resistance? The cup and handle looks more like drooping breasts, like the Meta logo, but you can see the C&H image. The bottom of the coffee cup is 70-ish and the brim breakout line is 91-93, so that is 21 to 23 dollars. Thus, if price breaks out higher, probably due to more hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, the upside target is 112 to 116, a return to the highs after the Iran War started.

The daily reality television show Donnie drama continues. Diesel prices are at multi-year highs and will send food prices higher. Farmers are screwed from all sides because they need the diesel to run equipment. At the same time, fertilizer costs are higher due to the closure of the strait. And the big blow is Donnie himself bringing in low-cost beef, undercutting the US farmers. Chump is admitting that tariffs raise prices probably without this fact and his stupid actions registering in his orange head.

Having fun yet? The US Monthly Jobs Report drops this morning. Stocks are usually higher the two days into a 3-day holiday weekend so some traders were front-running this expectation yesterday. Donnie Chump needs to get a handle on the Iran War specifically the Strait of Hormuz. He was always a little rich kid where daddy or others, lawyers, would fix his messes. Now he stands on an island by himself after solely initiating a war in the Middle East resulting in higher inflation, Trumpflation, and he is floundering, without a strategy going forward.

Secretary Bessent promised an economic D-Day that was a whimper. Trumpski and his crew has the braggadocio and embellishment side of politics down pat, but they lack on the follow-through, and actually doing what they say. Bessent was talking about foreign bank accounts the other day insinuating that 'we know where your money is' so that is fine, why did you not already freeze it? The US is now committed to holding a large troop force in the Middle East through 2027 but Vance says it is not a war.

King Donnie now says, "We are almost in total control of the strait," when for the last 3 months he bragged and proclaimed that 'he was in complete control of the strait'. Everyone could see that he never was in complete control of the strait. The lies get old just like they did with Sleepy Joe Biden. Americans are getting hosed at the gasoline pump and then they go across the street to the grocery store to experience sticker shock in the food and produce aisles. Keystone asked the butcher if they are offering an installment plan to pay for some beef. The answer was no, so he is looking in the canned goods section for Spam.

Keep an eye on the C&H to see if a breakout occurs. If so, you know the upside target. WTIC oil is at 90.65 and Brent oil is at 95.07. Donnie is hoping for someone to find more oil like Jed Clampett. Beverly Hillbillies. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GTX Commodities and DBA Agriculture ETF Weekly Charts Explain Trumpflation; Commodities (Goods) Inflation Hitting Multi-Decade Highs

The story of Trumpflation is a twisted tale. King Donnie Chumpski has done nothing to lower prices for common Americans. In fact, goods inflation is at multi-year highs not seen since 2008 and 2011. Toss the campaign promise about lowering prices in the trash with the others. GTX and CRB charts are the same. Both tickers are made up of many commodities, including oil, and are a representation of goods inflation. Of course, when oil prices rise, you feel it at the gasoline pump and those higher fuel costs increase prices across the board.

Sleepy Joe Biden was a mess of a president but what can you expect from a man with early onset of dementia, with a touch of Alzheimer's on the side, that spent each day eating chocolate pudding and looking for his hat. Inflation was bumping higher as Trump was elected in November 2024 and the path of higher inflation continued into early 2025. A pullback occurs in goods inflation as prices ebb and flow with the seasons and other factors. Donnie Chump is quick to pounce on the good news and claims credit for lowering inflation in early 2025 after only a few months in office. That joy did not last long.

Protectionist Trumpski then imposed tariffs on other countries starting April 2025 friend or foe. It was a mechanism that guaranteed that the attention, and cameras, would be pointed at his orange face every day forward; a narcissist's dream. Of course, tariffs increase inflation as the orange dolt stupidly proclaims that tariffs will decrease inflation. He is not a very smart man, in fact, he is a low IQ individual that is driven by his lust for daily attention and adoration.

At the end of February, over 6 months ago, King Donnie starts the Iran War creating an unmitigated mess in the Middle East and potential march towards WW III. Oil prices catapult above $100 per barrel sending gasoline and other prices higher crushing the low-income family that already cannot pay the monthly bills. You can see in the chart that goods inflation retreated during late May and June, as oil price came back down with Donnie promising an end to his war, but that slight relief in higher prices has now gone up in a puff of smoke. Probably pot smoke these days.

Donnie Chump re-escalates the Iran War so oil and other prices (gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, etc...) are on the rise again. King Donnie is as equally incompetent as Sleepy Joe Biden. Inflation has no effect on you when you are rich; you always buy what you want to buy and price does not enter into the equation.

The 30 million Americans at the top, that raped the US financial system for all it is worth starting with former President Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980's, are asking why is everyone so glum? These privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, that live in the McMansions, control the nation and the other 300 million folks are the peons at the bottom of the food chain. The middle class is wiped out over the last six decades. Americans now view the American Dream as the American Joke.

The only people touting the American Dream are the wealthy class trying to motivate the peons and making them think they actually have a chance of upward mobility and wealth. That keeps the huddled masses happy as they clean the toilets, prepare the meals, and carry bags. The other folks touting the American Dream are the naive foreigners entering the country. I am here for my American Dream. Okay, pal, here's a broom, and there's a cot in the back room you can use for a couple days but you have to find your own place, and do not worry about the rats, they will not hurt you, now start sweeping the warehouse floor. There's your American Dream sonny, now get to work.

The middle class was gutted over the last six decades so the wealthy could have 10 homes, 32 cars, a $40,000 refrigerator, and send their kids to the best schools and colleges to perpetuate the class separation in the US, and on top of all that, complain daily about the taxes they pay (they control the rigged system and make lots of easy money).

The sending of middle-class jobs overseas was sold to the public by emphasizing the low low prices for goods (Walmart and cheap Chinese goods). Greedy Americans did not care about their neighbor losing their job and livelihood to slave labor overseas because they could buy cheap stuff at Walmart; until they lost their job. Then they looked around and no one was there to help them. The six decades of financial rape of the United States results in 30 million wealthy at the top and 300 million peons at the bottom that cannot afford to live.

The DBA chart is focused on agriculture. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz limits fertilizer supplies hurting farmers. Costs rise. The higher oil prices equate to higher diesel prices, and along with supply shortages due to many reasons, including the Ukraine War that Chump could not end in 24 hours as he promised, er lied about, during the campaign.

The higher diesel prices are slapping everyone and the beatings will continue until moral improves. The high inflation, or Trumpflation, will continue into the mid-term elections on 11/3/26. Trumpski is making Iran War decisions based on politics never a good idea. King Donnie got booted from office in the first term due to his bad decisions and mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many common Americans cancel their vacations to Atlantic City and the East Coast this year because of the debilitating Trumpflation. The wealthy class at the top are glad since their travel plans become easier. Trumpflation further divides the country into the have's and have-not's. Keep this in mind going forward; 300 is a bigger number than 30. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:23 PM EST: GTX tags 6K for 2 days in a row. They passed out "GTX 6K" hats but Keystone's hat smelled like horse sh*t. Diesel is the highest price since 2022. If you need diesel fuel, run out immediately and grab it. Darn fuel went up 10 cents per gallon just today. The tank for the skid-steer and tractors needs topped off.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Potential Island Reversal; Price Parked on the 20-Day MA at 7713

The potential island reversal remains on the table. It was previously explained that price gapped up from 7600 to 7630 to create the island. Price comes down to back kiss the base line of the island and will either bounce for the bulls, or die for the bears. The two ways to die are for price to simply slump lower and fill the gap at 7600-7630, or price may drop to 7630, then gap back down to 7600 creating an island reversal pattern.

The SPX came back down but was saved by the 20-day MA support now at 7712.58. Price has respected the 20-day for seven days running but will the support continue to hold? On Friday, the candlestick shows a big battle between bulls and bears with the bears winning that battle but the bulls also win keeping price above the 20-dy MA at 7713.

The standard deviation bands are coming in tight so a huge move is on tap on the daily basis. Tight bands, however, do not predict direction. It is like squeezing a tube of toothpaste. The cap will fly open and it will squirt out but you do not know in what direction.

September is known as a soggy month. Utilities are weak and leading lower a terrible omen for the stock market. The AI hype and consumer spending due to the wealth effect keep the stock market buoyant. Did, or will, the AI bubble pop? Is the wealthy class starting to pull back on their spending?

Everyone is weighing in on Dolly Parton passing. She was a gem putting up with lots of jokes about her voluptuous breasts over the decades but it was always in good fun and not derogatory, and she was always a good sport, and even made jokes about her boobs herself. Dolly knew that was part of her brand and image along with her 13-dollar wigs and rhinestone outfits. The television tributes emphasize Jolene and I Will Always Love You, made famous by Whitney Houston, but very few mentions of the song that Dolly even said was her favorite; Coat of Many Colors. You can only understand that song if you grew up dirt poor. It is like saving the bread wrappers because you put your feet into them as a kid so your socks would not get wet because your shoes and boots had holes in them and it was raining or snowing. Of course other kids would laugh. You learn a lot when you grow up dirt poor in a ditch and end up wealthy. You see the whole gambit of life. Dolly was always generous. That is a good way to be because the pitchforks and torches, that are probably not too far away now, will pass up your estate and move on to the next. Comparing rich and poor, rich is better. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES ENTERS DOUBLE-DIP HOUSING RECESSION JULY 2026

The prior article on the housing market explained the drop into the double-dip housing recession on 7/17/26. The United States started a housing recovery in February of this year ending the long over 3-year housing recession that no one noticed. The housing recovery, however, only ran for 5 months, from 2/18/26 to 7/17/26, and the double-dip housing recession begins July 2026.

Over the last 2 to 3 years, the housing, manufacturing and labor markets were all in recession. That typically means an overall US recession is guaranteed like every other time throughout decades of market history. Au contraire, Pierre. Keystone grew up with a classmate named Pierre. His family owned a bar in town and had no connection with France whatsoever. They simply liked the name Pierre. However, his whole life everyone asked him if he was French.

No, the housing, manufacturing and labor recessions did not cause an overall US recession. Sacrebleu! Why? How could this be? Two reasons.

First, the AI hype machine is in full swing. Note that the only people hyping the AI circus each day are the tech folks making the money off of it, and keeping their jobs. They are tap-dancing for their dinner. The bull orgy in semiconductors (chips) and data centers keeps the stock market elevated and helps avoid the overall recession. You can say that chips are now the new predicter of a recession instead of the housing and auto industries. Chips rhymes with tulips.

Second, consumer spending but mainly by the upper class. America's middle class is gonzo, tossed onto the trash heap of human history, leaving 30 million wealthy folks at the top and in control of the United States and markets, and 300 million peons at the bottom stupidly believing that capitalism exists.

The obscene Federal Reserve money-printing for two decades, and ridiculous Congressional fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic, handing out checks like candy, created huge gains in the stock market. The easy money flows into stocks making the already wealthy super rich while the 300 million peons are peed upon. Such is crony capitalism filth.

The super wealth created in the stock market with easy money creates the wealth effect for those lucky individuals. They did not earn anything for the huge increase in their wealth over the last decade. Plain and simple, they were handed the wealth since they owned the stock market. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. The Fed's money printing sends stocks higher and the wealthy class dances with glee. Fed governors and employees are rewarded for their dovish money-printing by speaking at lucrative token luncheon events at the Wall Street investment banks after they leave office. That is the quid pro quo. Are you starting to understand crony capitalism filth?

The wealthy class is sleeping on bags of money, courtesy of the Fed's monetary stimulus and Congress's fiscal stimulus, making them feel on top of the world with a burning desire to spend some of this easy money dough that was accumulated only because they owned stocks. This consumer spending due to the wealth effect keeps the overall recession wolves at the door unable to enter the house.

It is easy to understand that when the AI bubble pops, and stocks drop making the wealthy class at the top feel a bit less rich, and their spending habits drop, the overall recession will likely, finally, show its ugly face. Of course, a policy mistake by the Fed, perhaps at the 9/16/26 rate decision meeting, may also create an overall recession. Raising rates will completely crush the housing sector but if inflation is allowed to linger it would be death by a thousand cuts.

For now, the 5-month housing recovery failed, and we are 2 months into a housing recession. At the next Housing Starts release on 9/17/26, the Starts would have to be 1.775 million units or higher to flip the housing recession back into a recovery. That is a tall order especially when the last number was 1.2 million units.

The government shutdowns, that created sh*tty data for a few months, should finally normalize in the path ahead. It has been sloppy with big 1.5 million unit numbers reported in February and March only to be followed by a pitiful 1.2 million in June. The numbers are all over the map but should start to line out better.

The last time Housing Starts were above 1.7 million units was back in 2022 so do not hold your breath that the housing recession will end. The housing recession appears ready to stay on and linger into perhaps through the Fall.

The stock market and economic game will be decided by the housing, manufacturing and labor markets versus the AI hype and wealth effect.

Manufacturing activity has strengthened the last couple months as the data center building hype is all the rage. However, maybe folks are getting a bit too excited about jobs and manufacturing since states are placing limits and regulations on data centers. They will have lots of hoops to jump through to build the data centers so perhaps the joy in manufacturing is a bit overdone in the near term. People are protesting yelling, "BANANA!" and "NIMBY!" ('build absolutely nothing anywhere not anytime' and 'not in my back yard').

Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the end of summer gala was lost in the mail, the housing, manufacturing and labor markets, and AI hype and wealth effect, will mix together, stirred by Chairman Warsh, and decide if an overall US recession appears in the weeks and months ahead.

Young folks under 40 years old never saw a true economic recession except for the COVID-19 pandemic turmoil. If you are under 40, spend some time thinking about what you will do when your boss sh*t-cans you drop-kicking your sorry arse into the dumpster at the far end of the parking lot. Unemployment will pay you for about 6 months. It is better to plan ahead and hope it does not happen. If you are a couple, go through your budget numbers based on you losing your job, and then on your significant other losing their job, and then if both lose your jobs. Save your money.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Potential Island Reversal; Gaps; Three Peaks and a Domed House

The choppy sideways pig slop continues this year. The 3-month range of 7300-7600 gives way to a gap up move creating an island (green lines and orange circle). The gap is 7600 to 7630. The island exists above 7630. If price comes down to 7630 and then collapses back down through the gap to 7600 or lower heading lower, that is an island reversal pattern. The other outcome is price simply slumping lower and filling the gap at 7600-7630.

The SPX drops down to 7639 on Thursday, in the neighborhood of the island base at 7630 and stabbing at the 20-day MA support at 7644. However, the bears do not have the strength to pull price any lower and stocks recover on Friday as alcoholic traders run to happy hour. Thus, the S&P 500 remains on the island deciding if she should rally, or collapse down through the gap for the island reversal, or slump slowly lower and fill the gap on the way to lower prices. Choose your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it, as William Bell sings. 

If the 20-day MA support at 7644 fails, and then becomes resistance, price will then seek the 50-day MA at 7541 to test that support. The orange gaps will all need filled going forward. The big up days in April and May occurred as the Iran War was thought to resolve and a ceasefire was on tap. Also, the ongoing AI and semiconductor hype keeps stocks elevated. The Iran War is a bigger mess now, with Baron Bessent set to deliver the bigtime economic sanction package against Iran tomorrow. Why does King Chump insist on embellishing every little thing that occurs? Trumpski proclaims that the sanctions are supposed to be the most harsh economic actions ever taken in the history of man. Shut up already. The diarrhea of the orange mouth cannot stop running.

Donnie brags that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Idiot. He is bringing ships through in the dead of night, with transponders turned off, with full US military escort, so they are not hit by missiles and drones. Insurers want nothing to do with that hot mess; you cannot insure a ship that is shutting off its transponders. Further, does Trumpski plan to be in place forever carrying out that task? Chump started a war that he does not know how to finish. The regime has to be eliminated in Iran but the soldiers and associated families and sympathizers total about 10 million of the 90 million Iran population. Donnie is in way over his orange head. He never understood what he was getting into. What is your plan, idiot?

Setting the stupid comment about the strait open aside, Donnie Chump boasts that 1000 ships have passed in the last couple months. At 60 days, that is about 17 ships per day. The actual estimates are 5 to 12 but let's give the little orange head his 17 ships per day. Before Donnie started the Iran War, there were from 130 to 150 ships passing per day. Do you see how they use the big 1000 number to make it sound like everything is normal? Do you understand how your mind is manipulated daily? There should have been 8400 ships that passed through the strait in that time period not the measly 1000.

On top of these embellishments and lies, US Central Command says 660 million barrels of crude have flowed through the strait since early May. Okay, that is 120 days that equates to 5.5 million barrels of crude through the strait each day under the cover of darkness with US military escort. 20 million barrels flowed through the strait before Trumpski started his war.

The reason oil prices have not gone hog wild higher is that oil is making its way through the strait and the pipelines across land are running at full capacity. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why Keystone's entry door card for the Kiwanis Club no longer works, about 5 to 10 barrels are coming out of the strait and 2 to 4 million extra barrels through the pipelines make up for about one-half of the losses through the Strait of Hormuz due to King Donnie Chump's Iran War. Talking broad general numbers, oil runs from 60 to 120, then comes back due to Donnie happy talk, and now likes it around 85 to 90-ish right in the middle (oil supply through the strait was at 20 million barrels, then down to zero, now back up to about 10 million). It makes sense for a simple mind. Simple Man. Seeing the Bic lighters during a concert was so much better than the garbage smartphones nowadays. All that you need is in your soul.

The constant daily oil talk detracts away from the many other products that flow through the strait now in short supply including fertilizer. Trumpski brags about looking out for the farmers but the tariffs and his other measures that bring on higher costs, and the constant uncertainty in markets, are screwing the farmers. Now socialist King Donnie, that has created corporate socialism, is playing with beef prices decreeing what meat should cost from his throne. Lower prices means farmers make less income. What a mess.

Donnie Chump is the modern-day Neville Chamberlain kissing dictator's butts while screwing allies and marching the planet towards WW III. Donnie is a well-dressed aristocrat like Neville wanting the camera to follow him everywhere. Trumpski is kissing North Korea's *ss as they provide drones and troops to Russia to help kill more Ukrainian women and children.

King Donnie will surely send messages to the markets this afternoon trying to manipulate the futures trading that begins at 6 PM EST. The world is losing faith and confidence in the US as the debt surpasses $40 trillion with Trump spending money like a drunken sailor. The yields on the long-end (30-year) are running higher so Bessent stepped in last week to manipulate the yields lower and he said he will keep doing more. What a tangled web we weave as the crony capitalism system is now in its final throes. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business text books due to human greed (corruption) and non-transparency. It's not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

It is surprising that no one has hyped the 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern for the SPX daily chart as shown by the brown peaks. Keystone does not put any confidence in these types of patterns but they are interesting to follow nonetheless. That final peak on the right should be lower in the neighborhood of the other peaks, and when price dropped late July, it should have taken out the June lows, but hey, trying to match a complex pattern like this exactly is a fool's errand. However, the general pattern exists and the domed house just formed and is giving way. It is a bearish pattern and typically marks an important historic top such as 1987 and 1929. There will likely be some stories on the three peaks and a domed house now that Keystone mentioned it.

The Iran War and Strait of Hormuz drama, along with the ongoing AI and chip hype, are sending the stock market to and fro each day. The action may become more wild since the mid-term elections are only 10 weeks away. Election Day is 11/3/26. US elections are always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

The SPX monthly chart watch continues since this holds the key to calling the historic stock market top that is so close you can taste it. Keystone has been explaining the saga all year long and April was a false dawn that was erased by AI and semiconductor happy talk and King Donnie Chump Iran War happy talk.

You can call the historic stock market top, on the monthly basis, when the MACD line rolls over with neggie d (blue circle). Since all other indicators are negatively diverged and the MACD line is in nosebleed territory, it may simply start falling and begin the historic pullback from this lofty perch.

The SPX shows overbot RSI and stochastics, and money flow, all agreeable to a pullback on the monthly basis. Price violated the upper standard deviation band so a pullback to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, at 6655 is on the table, as well as the lower band at 5399, both rising. Price is extended above the 10-mth MA above the 12-mth above the 20 above the 50 above the 200 so a mean reversion lower is desperately required.

The big volume candlesticks on the sell side show distribution taking place with the smart money gittin' outta Dodge while Joe Retail, Sam Sixpack, Carmelita Fool and Savita Sucka hold the bag caught up in the daily hype. The ADX shows that the stock market is NOT in a strong uptrend despite new all-time record highs. In fact, the trend higher now is weaker than 1-1/2 years ago despite the record highs.

The green Aroon line at 100% indicates that every single bull on Wall Street continues to believe that stocks will go up forever. That is why everyone has an end of year SPX target at 8.0K to 8.4K. Every analyst on Wall Street says the S&P 500 will gain from 400 to 800 points by the end of the year that breaks down to 100 to 200 points per month for the next 4 months. What are they smoking on Wall and Broad? That must be some of that 80% THC stuff from the vape shop. Instead, they will likely see stocks falling by that amount.

The red Aroon line for the bears shows that they have gone from being 100% bullish like the bulls to now about 70% bullish. That is what you see at tops. The bulls are relentless in their bullishness and the bears are bullish, too. The CPC put/call ratio drops again verifying the enduring stock market complacency and belief that stocks will never go down again. Even if stocks drop, young people say it is a buying opportunity but they are brain-washed by the media just like they were with the climate change saga and glorified golf carts (EV's). Keystone has heard this misguided belief from young folks recently. Sometimes the only way to learn is to get your pants pulled down, lose your shirt, and wear a barrel for a while. Do you plan on being stupid?

There are 6 trading days remaining in August and then a new candlestick will begin for September. Price has made the higher highs this month so the indicators can be assessed for neggie d and all are in place to call the historic top that will begin a multi-month and likely multi-year pullback, except for the pesky MACD. Sometimes it is like herding cats to get all the indicators to line up with neggie d to call the top. This baby game has been going on year long. It is time to top it out and be done with it. Let the piece of sh*t crumble into oblivion as it deserves.

Over the coming days into month-end on Monday, 8/31/26, watch to see if the MACD line flattens or slopes lower to lock in the neggie d and historic top. It will only do that if there is a big selloff this week into early next week. Again, however, the MACD is jammed into the ceiling and has nowhere to go but down anyway.

If the MACD continues to slope a hair higher, like now, on Monday, 8/31/26, then check out the chart after the first few days of September play out. Price will be at the highs so that will allow an assessment for neggie d and it is a safe bet that the MACD will be negatively sloped in September. You can almost see an epoch scenario where stocks begin to tumble lower now, or during September, and then when October hits, it is crash time. That would be fun.

Speaking of crash time, the utilities collapsed on Friday but no one noticed because they were too busy buying stocks. It is funny stuff. This is serious business. UTIL, or DJU, lost its 50-wk MA and remains in a weekly downtrend based on the closing price from 15 weeks ago (watch UTIL 1092 for next week). Shout out to Norm Fosback. The failure of the utes opens the door to a crash scenario going forward. Typically,  a run of the mill pullback would be expected of -3% to -5% even -10% followed by a recovery. The failure in utes changes the game. It is time to clench your buttock cheeks if you are long the market. When the utes lead the broad stock market lower, there is likely a -10% to -20% drop on tap and perhaps a lot more as the months play out.

When she starts falling, watch the 10-mth MA at 7149 as the early warning system. The 12-mth MA at 7085 is the line in the sand between a cyclical bull market and bear market. All hope is lost once 7085 gives way. A 6-handle is a given and a 5-handle will likely appear as the months play out. That would be a long way from SPX 8.4K. No wonder the screen printer will not start printing the "SPX 8K" hats until Wall Street provides a down payment but the analysts calling for these bigtime numbers will not pony-up the dough.

This is bigtime stuff folks and Keystone is the only one explaining it to you in real-time. Plan accordingly. You can only pick up those nickels in front of the bulldozer for so long before you trip and your pants leg gets caught under the roller. Everyone is trying to Reach for the Sky. I never thought about no future, it is just a roll of the dice, don't think about no future, forget about the past, because tomorrow may never come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPER (Copper) Weekly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence

Doctor Copper, we hardly knew ye. The AI boom has traders buying copper with both fists since the red metal is needed for wiring, electrical and piping systems and motors. At the same time, there has been a few supply disruptions due to weather and unrest. It is all priced into copper now.

The standard relationship for decades was housing, autos and copper. The big users of copper are houses that need plumbing and automobiles. When these two industries would slip into recession, there was Hell to pay. The US would go into recession and copper would be shunned. AI is the new dog in town and copper fever reaches a crescendo now with everybody and his bro invested on the long side. Perry Poindexter, that runs the tailor shop in town, and typically plays it safe, instead placed his entire life savings into copper futures on the advice of his new broker, Charlie Chisler.

The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern and very impressive that it took a couple years to develop. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. There is a long way to fall if price loses the bottom rail of the wedge. 

The red lines show the negative divergence across all indicators. Price moved higher but all indicators are out of gas sloping lower; neggie d. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was asked to give his door card back at the Moose Lodge, price should receive a multi-week slap down going forward. Price already slumps to the lower rail so it will be a big deal when it gives way. The red rock may fall like a, rock.

The standard deviation bands have come in tight (purple arrows) that means a big move is coming but it does not forecast direction. The neggie d says down. The prior tight bands squeezed out higher moves as copper was in its upside orgy phase. Copper may put on quite a show over the next few weeks. Stay away from it.

Of course, copper is a bellwether for the entire economy. It is not good if Dr Copper is lying on a gurney getting wheeled into the emergency room. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/22/26: Copper is still shining. CPER 39.99. The low last week is 38.96.

CRWV CoreWeave Weekly Chart; Potential Descending Triangle; Sideways Channel 70-120

Core Weave is weaving a descending triangle web. It is a bearish pattern but the CRWV bulls are fighting the pattern with all they got. The bulls pumped price higher after yearnings tagging the 120 resistance, but then receiving a slap-back, and price returned inside the descending triangle.

The stage is set for one of the bellwethers of the AI bubble. If the 70 level fails, and it was stick-saved over the last couple weeks, the vertical sides of the triangle say the stock goes to zero. Instead, if 70 fails, price will target that 40 support where the stock started a little over a year ago.

For now, there is a sideways channel at 70-120. Bears win below 70. Bulls win above 120. The middle is noise and drama. At 105 at the top rail of the triangle, watch to see if price wants to go higher and attack the 120 resistance again, or, if it falls further inside the triangle heading towards another test of the 70 baseline.

Keep an eye on the development of the descending triangle. If price breaks out higher the pattern will be nullified. However, if price retreats and loses the 70 level, there will be Hell to pay and it will probably reflect that the AI bubble has popped. Having fun yet? Una Paloma Blanca. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 8/19/26, at 6:36 AM EST: Ouchie. CRWV gets into a struggle and loses her weave dropping to 93. Price is back inside the descending triangle plotting its next move. The 20-wk MA is 98.83 and the 50-wk MA is 97.14 both lining out sideways. Take a purple crayon, Keystone likes purple since they taste the best, just like grapes, and draw a thick line across 97-99. This line is not in sand; it is in concrete. Bulls win big above 99. Bears win big below 97. Watch for either the failure at 70 or another try at a breakout from the triangle at 105-ish and then onward to test the 120 resistance.

Note Added Saturday, 8/22/26: CRWV is getting its weave pulled out dropping to 87.85. The drama continues. 

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; S&P 500 Prints All-Time High at 7817

The rally orgy party has ran its course. Price makes a higher high, a record high at 7817 but the day is not over yet, with all the chart indicators sloping lower (negative divergence). Price is heading higher but the fuel tank is empty and even the fumes are gone. The last 65-minute segment of the day runs from 2:55 PM EST to 4:00 PM so we shall see if any programmed selling appears. Blow on it and it should fall over due to the neggie d.

Utilities and retail stocks are important now. Chips remain key, ditto copper, and both are happily in the bull camp. Volatility remains low allowing the bulls to rally stocks while throwing rotten tomatoes at the bears. The bulls are pushing higher with the SPX at 7804, not seen since before lunchtime, gunning for the 7817 again. Consumer Sentiment is on tap tomorrow but barring any happy talk from King Donnie or more AI happy talk this evening, stocks have topped-out in the 2-hour time frame.

The SPX climbs to 7806. It took Viagra at 2:30 PM EST at 7790 and swells a big 17 to 7807. What is this guy talking about? Neggie d? Sounds like voodoo. You will have to let it play out into tomorrow morning to see if the negative divergence creates the top. It should unless happy talk occurs. Whoopsies daisies. A slight pull off the top to 7803. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 8/13/26, at 3:15 PM EST: UTIL, or DJU, 1112 is extremely important for all of next week so watch to see where utes end tomorrow. Price teased 1112 so the bulls know what they have to do. The UTIL 1112 level is key now through next Friday. Write 1112 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. The new moon peaked last night. We are in the darkest overnight period of the month for a few days. If Donnie Chump is sending in troops (Marines, Seals, 82nd Airborne, Green Berets, etc...), it is going to happen over the next few days, say by Monday. Thus, the weekend will likely be major decision time for the orange head. The US has superior night vision equipment and weapons so now is the time to use them (under the cover of pitch-black darkness). Will the US take Kharg Island? Donnie said the other day to "wait and see." He said that previously and stepped up the military strikes a couple days later. Trumpski screwed the pooch in Iran. He is in way over his orange head and does not know what to do about the Strait of Hormuz mess he created. If we are sending troops in, it should happen any day. If we get to Tuesday and this did not happen, the new moon does not occur for another month, and it is highly unlikely that Trumpski will ever commit ground troops to remove the radical Islamists regime that he said was the reason he went to war on the very first night. It's now or never. Elvis sings It's Now Or Never. SPX back up to 7805.

Note Added Thursday, 8/13/26, at 4:04 PM EST: The SPX prints an all-time closing high at 7799.01 and all-time closing high at 7816.70. WTIC crude oil is at 81.11 and Brent is at 86.89. UTIL ends the session at 1110. Utilities are key tomorrow and early next week. The ball is in King Donnie Chumpski's court.

Note Added Saturday, 8/15/26: The neggie spankdown begins but does not gather much steam only 13 points of downside to SPX 7786. Consumer Sentiment is weak. Perhaps traders are conditioned to wait for the weekend news when King Chump will bloviate happy talk? Especially before futures begin trading Sunday evening at 6 PM EST. Retail stocks, chips and utilities were buoyant preventing a big down day. Retail yearnings are on tap next week so the rubber will meet the road about the health of the US consumer both the upper class (30 million) and lower class (300 million). There is no more middle class. Semiconductors are temperamental like a beautiful woman; one day happy the next sad. As mentioned above, UTIL 1112 is key for all of next week and voila, UTIL ends at..... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer for it..... 1112. Bulls win above UTIL 1112 while bears win below. There are two intraday highs over SPX 7800 but not yet a close above 7800. Keystone was given a "SPX 7.8K" hat but on the way home, a bird sh*t on the brim. Secretary Bessent may have lost his gravitas looking unsure and hesitant when he proclaims that an economic whirlwind will be placed on Iran. A plan to try and seal off Iran is stupid. Any goods, food, water, etc.., will go to the IRGC and their families. Then the pictures of famine will appear on television screens showing the Iranian people starving in the streets. King Donnie Trumpski will be blamed. Chump is in over his orange head and must be trying to put the whole Iran mess on hold until after the mid-term elections in 11 weeks but it is always stupid being guided by politics instead of doing what is strategically right. Or, is it a ruse, and Bessent's nervousness indicates that he is not a good actor? We will find out tonight or tomorrow night. Is Bessent out there talking economic blockade but it is to keep Iran off guard while we go in with forces this weekend? It does not look that way but it would be a masterful stroke albeit one that then kicks off a prolonged war period to remove the radical Islamist regime on the ground (not likely; Trump looks like he wants to cut and run). Chump bloviates that he will declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. Why does he say such dribble? It is diarrhea of the orange mouth that cannot stop running. Even as a feeble old guy in his 80's, he feels a need to bloviate, brag, boast and embellish even about the most trivial and meaningless items and news stories. It is funny, odd, pathetic and pitiful all at the same time. Of course those suffering from TSS (Trump Sycophant Syndrome) will say he was only joking about the strait and all that rot. The TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) folks will be clutching their pearls about how Chump wants to take over the Strait of Hormuz. Anyhoo, the SPX 2-hour chart, and the daily chart, and the weekly chart, are all in negative divergence across all chart indicators. The SPX monthly chart is in neggie d except for the MACD line (we are at, or very near, within a month or two, of a historic stock market top). Happy Iran talk and happy AI talk can keep stocks buoyant. We will see if the bears got any juice in the week ahead. If utilities fall, the bears will be in good shape, and then weaker retail stocks and chips will help, and then a higher VIX will seal the deal for lots of downside ahead. The bulls need to rally utilities out of the gate Monday and they will maintain sideways and buoyant stocks. WTIC oil 82.40. Brent oil 88.52.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 8/19/26, at 6:36 AM EST: Okay, so the neggie d spankdown is occurring. Price peaked at 10:30 AM EST-ish last Thursday, 8/13/26, at 7817 (all-time high) and it has been down ever since. King Donnie does not want to send ground forces into Iran so the botched war will fester along until it worsens another notch. The stupid memo of understanding (MOU) is void as of Monday. King Donnie thinks he can make a deal with religious fanatics that are freely willing to die for radical Islam since it guarantees their place in heaven. Trumpski is an idiot. It is a big mistake to go to war without understanding your enemy. WTIC oil is over 85. Brent oil is over 92. A ship was hit a day ago and a sailor was killed. Hey Donnie, you said the Strait of Hormuz is open and you are in full control. Does that mean you take responsibility for that death on your watch? The orange one scratches his butt and did not even take the time to find out the sailor's name. Of course Trumpski is lying about the strait; his lips are moving. He is not in control of the strait. Three Chinese oil tankers are turned back from the strait in the last few hours since the risk is too great. Sure, Donnie, you are in control. Between 130 and 150 ships would pass through the strait before Trump started the Iran War. Now Chump brags that a handful of ships pass each day under the US military's protection. It is pitiful. King Donnie snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Gasoline prices are on the rise again with oil. Commodities are making a run higher so food will become even more expensive. The 300 million Americans at the bottom cannot afford to live anymore while the 30 million at the top, that control the show, plan their next vacation trip and ask why everyone is so glum? Such is America with Trump instituting and cheerleading corporate socialism as part of his agenda. The US government now has stakes in over a dozen companies. It is enough to make you vomit. That is not capitalism. It is crony capitalism filth in its final throes. Traders buy stocks such as Intel (INTC) because they know it will never go bankrupt since the US government now owns part of the company under Trump's socialism edicts. The same (mainly republicans) that are feeding this corporate socialism monster then turn around and diss common Americans for ever considering socialism. Go ahead and make sense of that. It is funny, but tragic. It has become a big ole pile of corrupt pig slop. Anyhoo, let's take a look at the SPX 2-hour. The neggie d spankdown includes a gap-down move. The chart indicators remain weak and bleak, wanting more lower lows in price on the 2-hour basis, except for the stochastics that are now oversold. The SPX daily chart also rolled over due to the negative divergence across all chart indicators. The 20-day MA at 7609 and rising would be a first downside target. There is a gap at 7600-7630 so the SPX is on an island right now. Watch for a potential island reversal when price drops to 7630 then bloop, it falls right through the gap to 7600 and then lower. If the island reversal does not occur, then price may come down to simply fill the gap. The SPX weekly chart also receives the start of its neggie d spankdown that should continue for several weeks. Semiconductors took the pipe yesterday creating negativity. Look for a potential stick-save with AI happy talk or King Donnie happy talk.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/20/26, at 7:00 AM EST: Stick save. King Donnie and Barrister Bessent step-in to manipulate the markets. Trumpski is focused on pumping cryptocurrencies and bitcoin since that will feed his grift operation. Secretary Bessent, representing the Treasury not the Federal Reserve, steps in to manipulate the long yield lower. Donnie was yippie again seeing yields rise so he told Bessent to do something. The 30-year yield was up to 5.32% and then down to 5.19% on the announcement now back up to 5.22%. The US debt tags $40 trillion dollars under Donnie Chump's watch and Bessent steps in with an Operation Twist Lite a couple hours later. Three cheers for crony capitalism filth and market manipulation. Hip-hip horray! As Bessent made the announcement, Chubby Checker was next to him on stage doing the twist. If folks did the twist everyday, they would not be fat. Chubby is a great entertainer. He has charisma and is a great talent. Keystone saw him several times right up close and grooving to the sound. Lots of fun. Come on little miss, let's do the twist. On the Iran War, King Donnie says he is unleashing powerful economic pressure on Iran. In a few days it will be something else for the unfocused orange head. WTIC crude oil is at 89. Brent oil is above 94.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/20/26, at 8:19 AM EST: 30-year yield 5.26%. Bessent feels sick and reaches for a bottle of Pepto-Bismol. WTIC oil 89. Brent oil 95. Fill up your gas tank today because prices at the pump are headed higher.

UTIL or DJU Utilities Weekly Chart; Price Collapses Below 50-Week MA at 1124 Forecasting Trouble for the Weeks Ahead

The bullish sentiment is rampant these days. Comically, any tiny pullback in stocks is immediately met with more bullishness and a celebration that you could get in long at a slightly better price. People say trading stocks is easy. All you do is buy and watch it go up; it always goes up. As you hear these comments, you think back at the dotcom bubble top with the same sentiment. Also, young folks, say under 40 years old, do not remember bad recessions; they never lived through one, except for covid. That is mind-blowing.

The COVID-19 pandemic was different since it was a forced shutdown of the entire economy by two idiots, Trumpski and Fauci, except for the crony capitalists at the top that control the game. Many, perhaps the majority of stock market participants these days, have not lived through an economic recession. Lots of folks are brainwashed to be positive and optimistic no matter what, like little robots, and that adds to the overall euphoria and excessive bullish optimism. The put/call ratios drop again verifying the party atmosphere. Ditto other sentiment indicators at record bullishness. The Uber driver said he took an entire paycheck and bot SPCX. Aunt Tillie, that was the town librarian, took her entire life savings to the broker in town and he put it in NVDA stock.

But it is crazy times right now. Utilities throw off an ominous signal last week professing doom and gloom at our doorstep and this negativity is ready to take hold for weeks and months to come. Huh? Look at the stock market going to the moon. What is this guy smoking? That is the oddity, folks. 

Utes are in a weekly downtrend based on the closing price from 15 weeks ago and this metric for the week ahead is 1157. For the week of 8/17/26, 1112 is the key price to watch. With utilities falling down to 1098, that is painting a rotten picture ahead. Usually, when utes collapse like this, already in a weekly downtrend, and then taking out the 50-week MA at 1124, the trap-door, the stock market will follow lower with utes, or in close order within a few weeks. In addition, the behavior above opens the door to a crash scenario for US stocks going forward.

It is insanity, right? The utilities are a signal telling you to batten down the hatches and brace for bad stuff going forward but no one pays attention or hears the ute siren call because they are too busy partying with the band playing super loud. It is strange times. Something has to give.

UTIL 1157 and UTIL 1124 are key for the week ahead. If price remains below, it forecasts bad stuff ahead for stocks. For the following week, UTIL 1112 and UTIL 1124 will be key. Therefore, watch price as the week ends on 8/14/26. If price remains below 1112, the doom and gloom forecast is on and gaining steam. If price ends the week ahead above 1112, you will know the fix is in with a stick-save and the market masters are propping up utilities to prevent the negativity on tap. These are tricky times. Surrender by Cheap Trick. Live from Budokan! (Japan) Watch your wallet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/15/26: UTIL ends the week at 1112. Of course it does. That is the key bulll/bear line in the sand for next week. If UTIL drops below 1112 and heads lower under 1100, that likely seals the deal for pain and misery for the stock market in the weeks and months ahead. Bulls need to rally utes out of the gate on Monday to keep the stock market party going.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 8/19/26, at 7:10 AM EST: The utility sector is creating lots of drama at the 1112.15 line in the sand. Price is at 1109 but the battle will continue. Next week, the line in the sand is UTIL 1092.72, call it 1093. Bears will need to keep pushing price lower and end the week below 1093 to continue negativity into next week. If this week ends and price remains above 1093, the bears got buptkis.

Note Added Saturday, 8/22/26: UTIL drops to 1075. Kitty is scared and ran under the desk. Watch 1093 in the week ahead. Be very afraid.

Note Added Sunday, 8/30/26: UTIL drops to 1078 with a low at 1074. It is time to gird your loins.