SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Historic Stock Market Top At Hand; Watch the MACD to Confirm the Neggie D and End to the 4-Year Bull Rally

Have you been performing your homework and watching the MACD on the SPX monthly chart to call the historic top in the US stock market? She's there. However, there are 9 trading days remaining in the month before it is cast in concrete and the November candlestick begins.

All the chart indicators are in negative divergence, neggie d, so a spankdown is needed that means stocks will roll over lower and begin a multi-month, if not a year or two, or more, of downside ahead. If you are new to trading or a young person, stay away from the stock market for a year or two. The smart money is sloughing off shares to the dumb money now. You do not want to be a bagholding sucka, do you?

The blue circle highlights the MACD finally sloping a hair lower (neggie d). This will lock-in the top for stocks on the monthly basis going forward. Now there are 9 days remaining in October trading and as long as the MACD finishes the month sloping down like above, turn out the lights, it's ovah. Willie is ready to sing The Party Is Over.

It is quite a sight. What a bloated piece of garbage it is. This 4-year rally that started in October of 2022 is based on the AI hype story similar to all the hype around tech and the internet in the late 90's into the dotcom bubble.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot and agreeable to a pullback going forward. The ADX says the rally higher is NOT a strong trend higher. The last strong trend higher was in 2018 (pink box). The Aroon shows that on a long-term multi-month basis, every single bull on Wall Street believes stocks will go up forever. The red line down in oversold territory shows that there are no bears remaining. The majority of the bears also believe stocks will go up forever. This is the behavior you would expect at a historic top.

The circles for volume show the smart money sloughing off shares to the dumb money (you). They appear on television each day telling you to buy, buy, buy, distributing their shares to you the sucker, as they sneak out the back door. The smart money has been ditching stocks the whole year long. Are you the sucka that has been buying?

Note the distribution occurring in late 2024 and early 2025. After that downdraft worked through the system, stocks started to rally to beat the band again on more AI and semiconductor hype. Note that the institutions were buying most of last year (all green volume candlesticks). Not so this year. Same thing happens with the drawdown in February/March but after that the smart money is actually accelerating their distribution. Step right up sucka, right this way, there ya go, step into that tent where you will be fleeced.

Just think, a year from now, people will be complaining that their $1,000 Trump accounts are only worth $700 or $800 bucks. People will be demanding, 'hey Donnie, can you put in 200 more to get us back to even?' 

It is a historic top. It will be fun. People will panic and run around with their hair on fire. We still have time for an October crash. Maybe a Black Monday? Tuesday? There may be military action in the Middle East War this weekend that may not make for happy folks come Monday. Keep your ears open Sunday afternoon to see if King Donnie starts jawboning to try and manipulate the futures markets that open at 6 PM EST.

Watch that MACD like a hawk. As stocks tumble lower on the monthly basis going forward, there are two key levels of support below. The 10-month MA at 7312 is a flashing yellow light telling you to turn back before its too late. The 12-mth MA at 7234 means all hope is lost and there is nothing but carnage and a bear market ahead for the long-term. Don't forget to put roses on the stock market grave. Dead Flowers by The Stones. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GTX Commodities Index Monthly Chart; Runaway Goods Inflation (Trumpflation) Occurs Due to Donnie's Middle East War with Fed Rate Decision on 10/28/26 and US Mid-Term Elections on 11/3/26

The Fed and Chairman Warsh have one heck of a rate decision to make in 11 days on Wednesday, 10/28/26. Will it be a trick or treat? It is the time of year for the Halloween anthem the Monster Mash everyone's fave. As the bridge says, everyone is having fun, the party has just begun. A kid asked Keystone the other day to take his mask off because it was too scary and ugly but he was not wearing one.

The chart illustrates how tough the decision will be. Everyone and his bro, including the Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman, say the Fed will stay on hold for the meeting next week and then hike at the December meeting. There is only a 20% to 30% chance of a hike on 10/28/26.

Think about that with the backdrop of runaway inflation, or Trumpflation, in the chart above. High oil prices are destroying the economy and people's lives as King Donnie now lets his Iran War fester into a Middle East War. If he does not get his act together, he will be looking at WW III.

The GTX and CRB are commodity charts that represent oil, wheat, beef, many items are a gauge of goods inflation. The goods inflation will ripple into services inflation. Also, the impact of ongoing tariffs and the Middle East War will be felt harder going forward

But therein lies the rub. The Federal Reserve does not want to hike, say, next week and then in December, only to see the US economy go off a cliff because they will need to then lower rates to stimulate the economy and any hikes will be looked at as errors. That is what they are paid the big bucks for. They will roll the dice or throw a dart and sometimes they are right and sometimes not.

The chart shows how all the easy money during the pandemic (Fed money printing and Congressional largess handing out checks telling people to stay home and watch television) caused runaway inflation. The mess started to settle down but Trump's tariffs created more inflation and people saw it as everyday goods went up a few pennies or more on each item they buy.

Then Trumpski decides to start a war in Iran and the Middle East perhaps encouraged by his best buddy Dictator Putin. What a mess. Now the orange head blames Zelensky and Ukraine for the terrible Trumpflation occurring going so far as to screw them militarily to give Russia an advantage; and Musk is tied up in this nefarious activity with Trump since it is centered around the satellites. Musk is an unelected bureaucrat impacting world wars. It is enough to make you vomit. 

Do not look for relief with prices anytime soon. It looks like things may get a lot worse going forward. Again, it makes the Fed rate decision difficult. Trump will go ballistic with a hike next week in front of the 11/3/26 mid-term elections only 6 days later. Warsh does not want the Federal Reserve to be viewed as political but is it political to hike or is it political to not hike? Will Warsh follow his instincts from 20 years ago when he was a hawk, and perhaps go ahead with the rate hike and face the wrath of Donnie, or, hold off next week, selling his soul, proving he is in the back pocket of the president, only to see inflation sky rocket in the days and weeks ahead?

If Warsh hikes to tame inflation, what happens if the goods inflation takes a sudden serious downturn? Perhaps the Middle East War resolves. Warsh also does not want to push the economy into recession by raising rates. He is balancing on a tight rope while all these factors are throwing eggs. If Warsh does not hike, that means the Fed is seeing some real ugly stuff coming down the pike fast (economic recession).

It is probably best to hike next week and Warsh can take his lumps with Trump. That way, you can sit back and study the data into the end of the year to prepare for the December meeting. The options appear better going forward instead of holding next week and creating a mess with potential out of control inflation.

The stock market, however, is not ready for a hike next week. Equities would likely tank on the news. Warsh will have both Donnie and the stock market cursing him, but at least Kevin would keep his soul. It is good to be a Soul Man. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

LULU Lululemon Weekly Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence

Poor LULU has been beaten to a pulp. Such a sweet thing that now lies in a puddle of dumpster juice in the alleyway behind the bar. Lululemon has been ridden hard and put away wet. There are competitors to the LULU leggings nowadays so they have lost market share. Ladies are buying some of their needs at the dollar store these days instead of going with the expensive Lululemon name brand.

But the holidays and Christmas are coming and the women are going to want presents under that tree. For the men, are you going to give her a pair of cheap dollar store leggings or are you going to spend the dough and get the Lululemon items since it is a judgement on how much you care about her? Yes, relationships are complex. Ladies want to feel special with the name brand. Sales should pick up for the holidays and the stock can not get beaten down much further, or can it?

To raise sales, maybe they should bring back those see-thru leggings. The men sure appreciated all the free shows at the grocery store and post office. Whoops, I am an old man that dropped his pen on the post office floor and it is difficult to bend over with my sciatica. Oh, thank you miss, oh, wow, my heavens, thank you very much. Whoops, I dropped it again.

Anyhoo, the chart is in positive divergence and expected to pop. The falling wedge is a bullish pattern. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a recovery. Keystone bot it long at 96 at the open. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:20 PM EST: LULU pops to 99.09. She has been below the key 103.60 where an island formed below during September and October. Price may want to come up to this 103.60 level to take a look. The gap at 104-119 is big enough to drive a Peterbilt through it so it will need filled some day. Watch it for a few days to make sure the positive divergence launch remains in play. It would be a perfect time for the company to announce good news to kick the possie d in stronger. Perhaps LULU is rising from the ashes.

Note Added Saturday, 10/17/26: LULU stretches her way higher to a hundo this week but ends the week at 97.10 sitting on the 20-day MA at 96.96. It is time to bounce or die. A bounce will make the 97 hold as support going forward.

AAPL Apple 2-Hour, Daily and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence Top

Wait for it.... not yet .... wait ... hey, Keystone is going to short AAPL, ... it must be in the charts... let's get in on the action .....  not yet .... almost .... wait for it ..... wait ........NOW!  SELL AAPL 347! Sell, Mortimer, sell!

He is shorting Apple? How dare he? That is blasphemy! Everybody and his bro and all the investment houses own boatloads of AAPL stock. Keystone must be delusional. No, he is not. It is simple neggie d. The rising wedges are ugly, too.

The Apple 2-hour, daily and weekly charts are in negative divergence across all indicators not a small feat. Price needs a neggie d spankdown in all these time frames. If you are sitting on a lot of profits, Take the Money and Run as Steve and the band sing.

Keystone is short from 347 so we'll see how it goes. It will be tossed back if the hype about Apple's products continue. The lates Apple offerings look like a bunch of rewarmed pizza. The latest Apple video is mocked on social internet. It shows an annoying a-hole family, that is supposed to represent Americans, using their products. It is nauseating. If your family is like that, they suck. It is hard to find the video since Apple must be taking it down. Apple commercial. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:40 PM EST: AAPL sinks to 342. The 2-hour chart indicators remain weak and bleak so lower lows in price are desired. Watch it for a few days to make sure the neggie d spankdown kicks in. Apple is cooked technically for many weeks to come. The only thing that can save it is happy talk but CEO Ternusaround just had a bunch of happy talk this week that provided the record high. Conversely, any negative news will kick the neggie d in with vengeance. Apple in retreat will be a very big deal for the stock market not only because of its heavy weighting but also a psychological factor. As AAPL stock moves lower through the multi-week pullback, confidence may be lost in the entire market as the bellwether collapses. The Apple Festival (harvest season festival) was last week and we made apple cider. A first target lower will likely be the 20-day MA at 337. All the leaves are turning colors in the beautiful Laurel Highlands of southwestern Pennsylvania. California Dreamin'.

Note Added Saturday, 10/17/26: Sapple announces that the Duo is flying off the shelves and deliveries are now delayed into January. Is it an honest comment or a marketing ploy to pump up interest in the Do Over foldable Apple phone? Keystone can provide a product and only make a dozen of them and proclaim the entire stock sold out in only a few hours. Come on folks, grab one while you can, they will not last. Meanwhile, Keystone has boxes and boxes in a stashed inventory ready to sell at an even higher elevated price. Apple enthusiasts may have wanted the foldable phone for Christmas but that may not happen, unless they pull the hidden inventory from the shadows. Hey, look everyone, we just found boxes and boxes of foldable phones in the back of the warehouse just in time for Christmas. With all the hype, AAPL finishes the week at the 343 palindrome. Apple may meet The Maker next week. Gird your loins if you are holding Sapple stock.

COPPER Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

For decades, the biggest users of copper were housing (plumbing) and automobiles (electrical motors and wiring). When Doctor Copper was sick, the economy and markets would catch pneumonia. An ole Wall Street adage is "every boom has a copper roof" or "a solid market is built on a copper roof." There are many variations. This has not changed. King Copper always rules the roost and in the present day, copper is serving as a proxy for the build-out of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

As a rule of thumb, when copper is sick, so is the stock market and the economy. All three lie in bed together. AI has been around for 4 years already. Time flies when you are having fun. Where's that cure for cancer? AI was supposed to cure cancer. Does it need another 4 years or will we hear any day that cancer is cured? It sounds like stupid talk like 15 years ago when idiots said everyone would own and be driven around in an autonomous car by now. These are fleece sweater wearing tech people talking their book.

Isn't it interesting that all these smart people spew about AI all day long and no one is able to provide short simple explanations of AI and what it is doing to save companies money? Maybe nothing. Maybe it is costing them money. If your company is running efficiently with its current enterprise system that controls the flow of work through the facility, why would you be an idiot and disrupt all that, and take on all those costs and hassles, to squeeze out small amounts of productivity? It would be CEO malfeasance.

Copper is a great proxy for AI and the data centers. AI has handed the US stock market big gains over the last 4 years; it saved the stock market from giving up the ghost providing a 4-year reprieve to the bloated balloon. You can see in the chart, copper followed a nice uptrend channel and then for the last 2 years, copper catapults higher on the glory of AI and data center construction for as far as the eye can see.

However, price moves higher into the rising wedge pattern never a good sign. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price is squeezed-in by the tight standard deviation lines so a big move is on tap. Tight bands do not predict direction but the assumption is down and it may be a biggie over the coming weeks.

Price makes higher highs but the chart indicators are all in negative divergence (red lines). RSI and stochastics are coming off overbot levels. Copper should receive and begin a multi-week neggie d spankdown. The chart is beautiful during the last 4 years, but ugly from here forward; that sounds like people's relationships. The ADX pink box shows that copper was/is in a strong uptrend but is just about to fall below 26-28 indicating that the strong trend higher has petered out and is no longer in place.

The Aroon is what you would expect at an important top. The green line is overbot so all the copper bulls believe copper will go up forever. Comically, the red line is oversold showing that there are no copper bulls remaining. They have all left town and are now bullish on copper as well. The copper boat is fully loaded to the bull side with everyone partying long into the night but no one realizes the waterfalls are quickly approaching.

Keystone is not playing copper or its derivatives long or short currently but obviously, short is the path forward for copper on the weekly basis. It never ends well if someone starts poking around Copperhead Road. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

JNJ Johnson and Johnson Weekly Chart; Ongoing Multi-Week Negative Divergence Spankdown

Some folks were thinking about going long Johnny John. Don't do that. Go to the john instead and save your money. JNJ bulls have to be happy doubling their money in a year but the glaring rising wedge, negative divergence across all indicators, overbot conditions, and upper band violation, said that down and the start of a multi-week slap down was on tap, and it occurs. The RSI and stochastics fall into bear territory sub 50%.

Price is hesitating at the 20-wk MA at 257 deciding which side it likes. The chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price on the weekly basis going forward. You want to wait until the downside plays out and positive divergence sets up on the weekly chart to go long. It may take a month or so.

If you bring up the daily chart, you can see it is set up and setting up with positive divergence and she pops a couple percent off the possie d launchpad today. There is likely a few-day or week or two relief rally on tap, say up to the 20 and 50-day moving averages at 262-264.

But price will then roll over lower again because the above chart, on the weekly basis, remains weak and bleak. Trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The daily chart wants to see some up but the weekly chart says down is the path forward. The 220-235 area may be the landing zone for a few weeks from now after the multi-week neggie d spankdown plays out.

Keystone is not playing JNJ long or short currently. If you are nimble, you can play long for a few days but do not stick around. Obviously, the easier play is short and hang tight for a few weeks letting the chart above play out, then you can flip the position long if the weekly chart indicators display positive divergence. Johnny John, we hardly knew ye. Johnny B Goode with the girls playing. Orianthi on the right is one of the best female guitarists in the world and known for playing with Michael Jackson; she's an Aussie girl that cannot put a guitar down. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/15/26: JNJ pops to 262 then promptly falls on its sword collapsing to 253. That is quite a round trip. Johnny John is dizzy and fell cutting his lip but fortunately, there are plenty of J&J Band-Aids around.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short today at SPX 7732 so the choppy drama continues. Retail stocks, copper and volatility are running the show. All 3 are bearish creating stock market negativity.

Keybot the Quant

AMD Advanced Micro Devices Daily and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence; Price Extended

Oh AMD, we hardly knew ye. AMD is a hot darling of the stock market right now sashaying her semiconductor body all around the trading floor sending equities to the moon. AMD, MU, NVDA, AAPL and MSFT are the AI and stock market leaders in recent weeks. NVDA, AAPL and MSFT, only 3 stocks, ridiculously account for one-fifth of the stock market.

Is anyone using that jackass AI to SI nomenclature change that King Donnie Chumpski proclaimed? Stupid and idiotic. Trump is jealous of Al Gore that invented the internet so Donnie wants to be known for inventing AI, er SI.

You have AI, artificial intelligence, AGI, artificial general intelligence, and ASI, artificial super intelligence. These three happen in order. Right now, we are starting into, and into, AGI. All the doomsday stuff you hear about AI is in reference to ASI when all the computer systems in the country and world are tied together and smarter than man. That is not now. That time in the future, from one to 10 years forward, is when a catastrophic outcome may occur for the 8 billion souls on Earth so 'let not your hearts be troubled'. The orange-headed idiot succeeds once again at creating confusion now infusing his jackass SI into the AI, AGI and ASI standard industry nomenclature.

The other reason Trump's AI to SI change is stupid is because it removes the word artificial. You do not want to do this. It must always be known that the intelligence is artificial and machine-driven via large language models (LLM) and regenerative code and it is not equatable to human intelligence. The jackass SI nomenclature removes the artificial inference. You do not want to do that.

Everyone is too caught up in the AI hype throwing billions at promises. It is like Wimpy asking, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." Emperor Jensen, Lord Dario, King Altman, Prince Nadella, Emperor Ternusaround, His Majesty Musk, and the whole Hee-Haw gang, are Wimpy asking for billions, even some trillions if you got them, today, for AGI and ASI tomorrow. As they say in the Bronx, "Good luck wit dat."

Anyhoo, AMD is cooked with all the chart indicators for both the daily and weekly time frames in negative divergence. That is a stock you do not want to own for the coming weeks. The current hype and bullish euphoria can carry on for a few days or week or so but the expectation will be for a neggie d spankdown in both the daily and weekly time frames to begin anytime. It will be the start of a multi-week drawdown in AMD.

The weekly chart is extended above its moving average ribbon (price above the 20-wk MA, above the 50 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed in the weekly time frame. Look at the lower volume in recent weeks on the weekly chart. For all the hype and bullish euphoria for AMD, why are only the bagholding suckers buying the stock? Because the smart money is sneaking out the back door while they tell everyone on television that AMD is the best thing since sliced bread. Pump and dump, baby.

The daily chart shows a doji candlestick for yesterday that can indicate a change in trend at hand. If you are in AMD long, it is time to exit stage right unless you want to ride it lower for several weeks forward. If you have juicy profits, scale yourself out. You can sell a third today, sell a third next week, and then sell the final third the week or so after that. By then, she would be expected to be rolling over and heading lower.

Keystone is not in AMD long or short right now but obviously, short is the play going forward on the daily and weekly time frames. Keystone has started to short the semiconductor sector starting yesterday. Donnie Trump was campaigning down at Choctaw Ridge the other day but he did not mention that Billie Jo MacAllister jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge. Bobbie Gentry. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/9/26, at 6:43 AM EST: AMD is hit -4% yesterday. King Donnie throws a temper tantrum and proclaims that anyone that does not use his new SI instead of AI term is "the enemy," and the twit places the words in caps in his tweet signifying that he is yelling. What a child. The orange-headed idiot moans about his new stupid SI term that everyone ignores while at the same time he names an "AI Czar." You cannot make the stuff up. Pure idiocy. Do you notice that Trump just does not have the gravitas he used to? He is looking more and more like a confused old man nowadays. Young folks on social media are now proclaiming, "I am the enemy."

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 10/14/26, at 5:21 PM EST: AMD collapses from 659 to 567 now at 570 a -14% drop in the last 6 days. That will leave a mark. The AMD neggie d spankdown begins and the multi-week down move is underway. The daily chart may bounce in a few days, simply watch for possie d to call the bottom, but that will be a short-lived relief rally for a few days or week or two, then roll over again to the downside to resume the multi-week smackdown. The SOX drops from 13350 to 11640 now at 11684 a -13% drop in 6 days. SSG, the 2x inverse ETF runs higher from 9.45 to 11.76 a +24% gain in 7 days. That is tasty. Keystone can eat hamburgers and French fries tonight instead of franks and beans. The chips are getting pummeled.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 7766. The sideways choppy slop is relentless. Copper and volatility are running the show. Both are bullish creating the lift in equities along with oil prices relaxing lower. Watch CPER 39.63 and VIX 16.24 as the bull/bear lines in the sand. Do not be surprised if the quant whipsaws back to the short side in a day or two. Sideways choppy slop chews up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot the Quant

CPCE CBOE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Put/Call Ratio at 5-Year Low Signaling Rampant Complacency, Bullish Euphoria and Fearlessness; Sell, Mortimer, Sell

The CPCE CBOE Options Equity Put.Call Ratio dropped below 0.4 signaling rampant complacency, bullish euphoria and fearlessness in the US stock market. No one believes that stocks will ever go down again. The bears have all left town. There are only very bullish and euphorically bullish bulls remaining. Sure, that should work out well (said cynically).

The put/call ratio is the lowest since late 2021 when the stock market topped out. The SPX then crashed -25% over the next 10 months. The put/calls then spiked higher in Q4 of 2022 signaling rampant panic and fear so that was the perfect time to buy stocks. People's hair is on fire and they will do anything to get out of the stock market. A high put/call ratio signals that people never want to own stocks again as long as they live so you will be glad to take their shares off their worried hands.

John Doe, Sammy Sixpack, Savita Sucka and Bonita Bagholder are buying with both fists right now caught up in the AI and semiconductor hype. The guys and gals on television tell you to buy, buy, buy, because they are unloading their shares at the top locking in their juicy profits; they need bagholders so they pump and dump.

That is the purpose of that Trump account nonsense putting in $1000 for a child and telling them they will be a millionaire out of high school. It is silliness. What will these folks, now numbering in the millions, say when their Trump account is worth only $800 bucks a year from now? However, the wealthy class would have gotten theirs and then they will tell you not to forget that you are an investor for the long term (they weren't). Don't you love crony capitalism filth? It is a disgrace that the US government and corrupt investment houses tout the Trump accounts and not one single person ever said that "past performance does not guarantee future results." Instead, they provide fuzzy math promising vast riches every year forward forever. They are corrupt thieves always implementing policies that allow the backroom grift.

Applying the -25% to the SPX at 7723, that would be a drop of 1931 points, and a landing spot of 5792 by summertime if this 2022 fractal plays out again. The US stock market has rallied for the last 4 years with the AI hype carrying most of the load reminiscent of the dotcom bubble. Plan accordingly.

If you are new to stock trading and proud of yourself for making a little bit of money, get yourself out before you get hurt. Ditch your longs and let the money sit in your brokerage account in cash for the next few months. It is dusk now, and the sharks are starting to swim in the darkened waters anxious to begin feeding. Do you want to keep swimming? Sell, Mortimer, Sell. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.