SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Downward-Sloping Channel; Positive Divergence Developing; Potential Island Reversal

Stocks are moving lower down through the downward-sloping channel. Price is testing the lower rail of the channel and will bounce or die. It started to bounce late in the day yesterday. S&P futures are up +5 with the VIX remaining elevated at 32.57. Price teased a low from earlier in the month and may want to come down there again (thin purple line). The indicators are setting up with positive divergence (green lines) but the MACD line remains weak and bleak. The MACD wants another lower low and at that time may set up with possie d, so in a couple hours or so.

The RSI is not in oversold territory so that hints at further weakness ahead. The news flow concerning the spreading pandemic, fiscal stimulus deal and election theatrics is in the mix. Stochastics are slightly oversold agreeable to a bounce. Price likely needs to come down once more before bouncing in this 2-hour time frame due to the MACD. Support is at 3360-ish, then 3330-ish and 33 hundo.

That 3300-3330 gap is big enough to drive a truck through. The SPX will either want to come down to fill that gap, or, come down to 3330, play around for a little bit, then whoooosh, flush down to 3300 in a heartbeat and then collapse lower from there creating an island reversal (gapping back down through the gap). The SPX placed itself on an island when it gapped-up at the end of September to 3330. To be most technically accurate for the island pattern, price should have a couple more touches this month at the water level at 3330 but its close enough for government work. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3421. Watch the banks. As XLF goes, so goes the market. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

One of The Keystone Speculator's key short-term indicators is the SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross which signals a near-term bull versus bear market. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 3423 and the S&P 500 is at 3384 signaling a bear market for the short-term (hours, days perhaps a couple weeks). The SPX is down -2.5% on the day with another 2 hours of trading remaining in the session.

Price will want to come up for a back kiss, perhaps on fiscal stimulus or vaccine hype. The stock market is in trouble the longer it remains under the 200 EMA. It's another top Keystone called. If we can jam it lower it would even be a Black Monday.

This fun never gets old. You were told to leave the market. You chose to say. Now it is time to pay. We need some Angus. Chop their heads off, boys. Shoot to kill. Take no prisoners. Show no mercy. There's one. Hey you, sonny, where ya goin? Oh, oh, yes sir, I did  not get out of the market in time and I see everyone stacked up at the exit door, I thought I would exit this window but I need a hand. Here you go. Thank you sir, er.... plop. There's your head on a platter. Take his shares, boys, on to the next one. Look at that rat running. Step on him. Squish. Take his shares. This never gets old. Time to slice and dice the bodies in front of the exit door. The blood is flowing on Wall Street, what a beautiful sight the carnage is, if you are short of course. That double-top was a sight to behold. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:40 PM EST: The trading session is split into six 65-minute periods. The robots realign at each period break. Thus, if stocks fall apart, or if they begin rallying into the closing bell, the first tell may be at 2:55 PM EST as the sixth trading segment begins. You have to see if it starts with heavy sell, or buy, orders. So this upcoming 2:50 PM EST to 3:00 PM EST area may be interesting to watch. The SPX is down -2.2%, off 76 points, to 3389 remaining under the key 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 3423.

Note Added 3:42 PM EST: Choppy flat over the last hour through 3385-3393. Price has to exit one side or the other of that channel. Here she comes at 3386; the SPX is testing the 3385 support. Bounce or die. Bulls are covering themselves with stimulus and vaccine fig leaf's fearing they will be exposed.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/27/20: The SPX finishes down 64 points, -1.9%, to 3401. Comically, happy stimulus talk creates a late-day rally into the bell. S&P futures are up +8 with the VIX at 32.04.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico, Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America; US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10 Days Away; Coronavirus Article 23

 

By K E Stone (Keystone)

China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, spawned at the two secretive biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected over 42.5 million people around the world killing 1.15 million souls. 31.5 million people have recovered (74%; three-quarters of the people that had covid have recovered; 3 in 4). The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) unleashes bioterrorism upon the planet.

The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened over 8.7 million Americans (2.6% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 38 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering 229,292 United States citizens; almost 230K dead. That is a lot of moms and dads, grandmothers and grandfathers, daughters and sons, neighbors, minorities and disadvantaged folks. 5.7 million Americans have recovered (66%; two-thirds of Americans that had covid have recovered; 2 of 3). The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the United States. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (20.5%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (19.9%) of the deaths.

China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting their economy. The communist nation is getting back to normal while the rest of the world cleans up the Chinese mess. China owes the world restitution for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. 1,150,000 people are dead. Dirtbag Dictator Xi’s sick depraved soul is destined for the worst levels of Dante’s Inferno.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world at 8.75 million followed by India (7.8 million), Brazil (5.4), Russia (1.5), Spain (1.1), Argentina (1.07), France (1.04), Colombia (999K), Peru (883K), Mexico (881K), UK (831K), South Africa (712K), Iran (557K), Chile (499K), Italy (485K), Iraq (446K), Germany (417K), Bangladesh (396K), Indonesia (382K), Philippines (368K), Turkey (358K), Saudi Arabia (344K), Ukraine (337K), Pakistan (327K) and Israel (309K). France, Italy, Germany, Indonesia and Turkey move higher on the list. Columbia is about to join the 1 million cases club as the eighth unhappy member.

There is bad news in Europe and America. The United States daily new cases chart above clearly shows the new record high on 10/23/20 at 81,210 cases; an 8-handle. Will the daily new cases grow to a 9-handle and then 100K per day? WHO says six figures are coming for the new cases. The prior record high for daily new cases was 79,012 cases on 7/23/20.  President Pollyanna Trump continues proclaiming, “We’re rounding the corner” and the other day saying, “the virus is going away.” What color is the sky in his world? Yes, the US is rounding the corner and driving head-on into a Mack truck. The Saturday Night Live (SNL) television comedy show says Trump has rounded the corner so many times he is now back to where he was at in March. The 7-day moving average of daily new cases is ramping higher with no signs of stopping.

The US active cases chart is shown above blowing-out higher. This is the bell curve chart that needs to flatten to verify that the strain on the medical system is subsiding rather than increasing. Alas, it is going the wrong way. Keystone highlighted that fateful day, when the active cases curve blew out higher, in the 10/10/20 article; Coronavirus (COVID-19) New and ActiveCases Charts; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Active Cases BellCurve Chart; Highest Active Cases Ever; New Cases Highest Since August.

Two weeks later, the new cases are now blowing-out higher on 10/23/20 as identified in today’s article; Coronavirus (COVID-19) New CasesChart; United States Reports Highest Daily New Virus Cases Ever on 10/23/20.

New record highs in new cases leads to more active cases, hospitalizations and then deaths; a path of misery. America is in for another tough slog ahead as the Autumn leaves fall and the cold winter winds blow. Pandemic fatigue, the wintertime blah’s and people in close contact indoors will exacerbate the virus gloom and dread which weighs on the economy.

The US is in a third wave. The new peak in new cases on 10/23/20 is used to target the peak in active cases (maximum strain on healthcare workers and equipment) 28 days hence, as per the Keystone Model, which is 11/20/20 (America’s next chance to flatten the active cases bell curve chart).

The key peaks in the new cases data occur on Fridays probably because of the way the data is reported, gathered and/or tabulated. Watch the new cases reported for next Friday, 10/30/20 (chart is probably updated the following morning), since they will tell the story forward. Another record high in new cases on 10/30/20 would be devastating and mean that America is descending quickly into covid Hell. A pullback in the new cases on 10//30/20 would be a welcome sight. That 7-day new cases moving average ramping higher is ugly and hints that the new record cases may not peak-out for at least another week or two. This would continue to push the target date for the flattening of the active cases bell curve forward the same amount of time.

The IHME estimates 385K deaths in the United States by 2/1/20 and this assumes states will impose mask-wearing as deaths worsen. Authorities are quick to remind everyone that if the majority of the population would wear masks, 100K lives could be saved.

Europe is a coronavirus mess. Italy’s new cases chart is shown above with a new all-time record high. This chart is the same for the other European nations such as France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and the Eastern Bloc nations such as Poland, Romania, Czechia and Hungary. An interesting divergence in the data is with deaths. Czechia’s death chart above is sadly rising like a rocket. This chart is the same for the other Eastern Bloc nations mentioned. However, the European nations mentioned exhibit only very slight rises in their death curves nowhere near their sharp spike’s higher months ago. Europe is better prepared and more knowledgeable on handling the virus than months ago but the Eastern Bloc nations are overwhelmed.

Sweden’s daily new cases chart is shown above and this Nordic nation just matched the record high cases from June. Sweden was the focus of herd immunity discussions months ago and this topic is presented in more detail below under the list of countries.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, and more data and information are available. This is Article 23 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-third article is published on Saturday, 10/24/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is the raw pandemic truth occurring and recorded in real time.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.

The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling; 10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on 9/24/20.

The twenty-first article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump inHospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases BellCurve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin aDisappointing 2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri,Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwestand Northwest US; Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214KAmericans Dead; Over 1 Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected;Europe Dealing with Major 2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikesin New Virus Cases Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands,Ireland, UK, Austria, Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US CongressContinues Negotiating Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital;AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21 published on 10/4/20.

The twenty-second article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails toFlatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New CasesIncluding the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin,Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee,Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases IncludingUS, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland,Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking intoCOVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears UnlikelyBefore the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on 10/14/20.

The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Worldometer data is about 3 to 5 days ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data, sometimes more. This is why some of Keystone’s forecasts in the coronavirus series of articles appear prescient. You will generally know of a trend or direction change of the coronavirus pandemic here first followed by the mainstream media playing catch-up a few days later.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, the Keystone Model, forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as the initial wave.

If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like the US and many other Western nations, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease). Western nations live more feely so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Interestingly, Russia President Putin may be an incompetent dictator since he can force the population to perform his bidding but the coronavirus pandemic continues spinning out of control. Perhaps Vlad wants to trim the elderly population since that will be less burden on the Ruskie government.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data is key but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system.  Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system.

The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner. The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations, deaths or any other virus charts.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher (like now in the US), signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

As explained above, the peak new case date for the US is 10/23/20 taking out the prior record high on 7/24/20. America is in a third wave of the virus, or third impulse, or third surge, whatever term you prefer. Adding 28 days is a target date of 11/20/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve and hopefully begin to roll it over lower.

The United States celebrates Thanksgiving on 11/26/20. Will America be giving thanks that the virus is subsiding again and the active cases chart appears to be rolling over, or, will the US be in covid Hell with the active cases chart continuing higher and panicked people yelling bloody murder as they witness empty store shelves? The virus is going to be around a while. Learn to live with it as Trump says.

The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India (problematic data), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan (but trouble ahead), Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Kazakhstan, Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait (but trouble ahead), Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus experiment), Japan, Australia (keep an eye on it), South Korea (but trouble ahead), Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Ecuador (problematic data), Israel, Iraq (but trouble ahead), UAE (data is problematic) and Uzbekistan (problematic data).

Surprisingly, South Korea, that receives accolades for its handling of the pandemic this year, is probably beginning a third wave of covid misery. Mexico is now experiencing an uptick in new cases bringing on a second wave. Coronavirus is a real bastard to beat down. You cannot get rid of it. The virus keeps coming back. It is like dog sh*t on your shoe; no matter how much you clean the shoe, you still smell dog sh*t.

Israel snuffed-out coronavirus quickly after imposing strict stay-at-home guidelines.  The authoritarian, socialist or communist nations can stop the pandemic easier since the citizenry must obey government without rebuttal (11-day average between the new cases peak and when the active cases peak) while the Western nations have a more difficult row to hoe since folks like to question authority and want to continue socializing and partying (28-day average between the new cases peak and when the active cases peak).

Sadly, the United States appears on the list below of troubled countries again after failing to flatten the active cases bell curve chart after six weeks of hoping and praying. New cases are ramping higher which creates more active cases, hospitalizations and deaths. There are over 41K Americans laying in hospital beds today. Healthcare workers grow weary and tired of listening to the never-ending wheeze of ventilators in the ICU. Mental stress and holiday loneliness are depression’s best friends.

The 38 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems) provided. The nations towards the bottom of the list are the worst at handling the difficult battle against the contagious covid virus. China’s deadly coronavirus is murdering thousands of innocent souls each day. Soulless Dictator Xi, the commie, dances with glee, he sees the world at his knees, and a growing domestic economy, China expands across the Pacific seas.

Oman (Second Wave)
10/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked 10/18/20)
 
Indonesia (Second Wave)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 10/12/20)
 
Belarus (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 4/10 and 10/11/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belize (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases on 8/13, 8/19, 8/29 and 10/13/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 10//22/20)
 
Ethiopia (Fourth Wave)
10/12/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases highest for this wave)
11/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Canada (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever; huge spike higher)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Moldova (Second Wave)
10/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Switzerland (Second Wave)
10/19/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/19 and 10/23/20)
10/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Ireland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/17, 10/18 and 10/20/20)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
 
Finland (Second Wave)
10/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/8 and 10/20/20)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 6/24 and 10/21/20)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Nepal (Second Wave)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Argentina (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
10/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Morocco (Fourth Wave)
10/22/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/17, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Mexico (Second Wave)
10/22/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/17, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Portugal (Second Wave)
10/22/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave on 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Turkey (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases highest since 5/6/20)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Iran (Third Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Albania (Third Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Poland (Third Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Czechia (Second Far-Larger Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Austria (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Germany (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Greece (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/21, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
 
France (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Italy (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/22 and 10/23/20)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belgium (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Hungary (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Romania (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
Lebanon (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever during October)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
United States (Third Wave of Original Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Russia (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Ukraine
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Armenia (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Georgia (Second Wave)
10/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

Most of the active cases peaks are projected to occur in November as the coronavirus stink lingers. Ireland is imposing stricter measures to try and control the spread. The hospitals are overrun with sick patients in Czechia. In Poland, President Duda tests positive joining the list of many other foreign nations with stricken leaders including the USA (Trump), UK (Johnson), Belgium, Czechia, Poland and others.

Sweden was always in the limelight in the early months of the pandemic during discussions of herd immunity. Humorously, Trump referred to herd immunity as herd mentality a couple weeks ago. Sweden was cheered by folks that oppose face coverings, and other restrictions against civil liberties and freedoms, for not imposing draconian lockdown rules to stop the spread of covid. This lack of action by the government was thought to perhaps bring on herd immunity faster but the Swedes self-limited their behavior and interaction.

In essence, Sweden imposed the draconian restrictions on themselves. Sweden disappeared from the spotlight, as well as talk of herd immunity, which was replaced by vaccine and therapeutics hype and optimism. Currently, Sweden is in the same soup as Europe with new cases rising. Reference the chart above. The government now imposes a 50-person limit in nightclubs and plans other restrictions.

Dr Atlas, that took over the top doctor spot on the Whitehouse task force, is a proponent of herd immunity but that is a dangerous path to follow (allowing young people to become sick and develop immunity). The young are not dying from coronavirus but they can pass the virus on to older folks. At least it would be one way to cull the senior population and help maintains solvency with the Social Security system. A herd immunity approach would likely kill hundreds of thousands or millions of people over 70 years old and after that mayhem would take place, no one yet knows how long immunity would last. Pursuing herd immunity may be a stroll down the Primrose Lane into covid Hell.

Another unknown is the lingering effects of coronavirus on one’s health. Virus patients experience fatigue and shortness of breath for months. It’s best to fight the devil you know (the pandemic now; follow social distance guidelines and use face masks if around others or in public buildings) than the devil you don’t know (pursuing herd immunity that would result in excessive deaths among the senior population with no guarantees that it will snuff-out the virus completely).

The new cases and active cases charts continue moving higher for the 38 countries listed above. The active cases charts will not yet roll over to form the bell shape for these nations so the strain on medical workers and equipment continues (which includes the care after hospitalizations). Europe, the US, Canada and other northern hemisphere nations face a ‘dark winter’, as presidential candidate Biden says.

Europe, western Asia, and the Middle East are in major coronavirus trouble. The major countries sinking into or stuck in the coronavirus quagmire include the USA, UK, Canada, Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, Czechia, Sweden, Greece, Iran and Turkey.

President Macron says France must learn to live with the virus until next summer at best. President Trump has been singing from the same hymn sheet about learning to live with the virus. So much so that his challenger Biden has come up with a new tag-line mocking Trump about telling everyone to learn to live with it (the virus). Biden says instead, “we’re learning to DIE with it!”

A hot spot is the Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Turkey confluence. Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in that region. Russians are dropping like flies with some daily death counts hitting near 300 or more people. 296 Ruskies bit the dust yesterday. Interestingly, the deaths in Italy, France, Spain, etc…, are much lower in number than the first wave but in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania the deaths are far exceeding any prior numbers. Reference the Czechia chart above. There are over 5K hospitalizations in Czechia with the healthcare system in near collapse.

The world lacks leadership in handling the pandemic. Modern-day politicians are weak-kneed and only concerned with their reelection campaigns rather than performing the people’s business. The loss of business and destruction to the European and US economies may plunge the entire world into a global recession and depression not seen in a century; like the pandemic itself. China’s largest trading partner is Europe and the roses in the communist nation’s economy may turn to thorns if the rest of the world goes down the tubes.

For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The worst 17 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are Texas which just outpaced California as the worst state, then Florida is the third worst state, followed by New York, Illinois, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri and Virginia. Wisconsin and Missouri are additions to the list. Texas, Illinois, Tennessee, and Alabama move higher on the list (these states worsen).

The 3 US states that have successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Florida (although the 10/22/20 high in new cases hints that a dark second wave cloud is descending on the Sunshine State), Georgia (but new cases print a one-month high and rising) and Louisiana; also the District of Columbia (DC). This list was 15 states 30 days ago, 11 states 20 days ago, 6 states 10 days ago, and now only 3 states and Florida and Georgia are looking weak. Over the last few days, Nevada, Hawaii and Vermont fall off the winners list above and join the losers list below.

The coronavirus situation is obviously worsening as delusional King Donnie proclaims each day that the US is “turning the corner,” and coming “around the bend” and stating that the virus is “going away.” The president is asked what he would do differently in handling the pandemic if he had a mulligan. King Donnie proclaims, "Not much." Trump is the modern-day Nero fiddling while Rome is burning. Is coronavirus Trump’s Waterloo? We will know the answer in 10 days.

Below is a listing of the 47 states (this list was 35 states 30 days ago, 39 states 20 days ago, 44 states 10 days ago, and now 47 states; the virus is obviously worsening) having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. America is likely descending into a panic again like the springtime with the store shelves going bare and people hunkering-down. This behavior will devastate the US economy especially with the hope for a fiscal stimulus bill looking dim.

The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all the states listed below are in pandemic trouble. The United States is following Europe into COVID-19 Hell.

Alabama

New Case Peak Date 9/25/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/30/20 (data is problematic)
 
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/30/20
 
Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20
 
Hawaii (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20 (highest new cases since Sept)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20 (active cases chart is rising)
 
Connecticut (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20 (highest new cases ever are 4/20, 4/22 and 10/12/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/9/20 (active cases chart is rising)
 
Missouri
New Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/12/20
 
Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/14/20
 
Mississippi (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (highest new cases since Jun-Aug)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/12/20 (data is problematic)
 
Minnesota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/16/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/13/20
 
West Virginia (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/16/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/13/20 (data is problematic)
 
Maine (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/14/20 (data is messy)
 
Delaware (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/14/20 (data is problematic)
 
Nevada (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/17/20 (highest new cases since August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/14/20
 
Washington (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/19/20 (highest new cases since 8/3/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/16/20
 
Kansas (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/19/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/16/20 (data is messy and problematic)
 
New Jersey (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/19/20 (October is highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/16/20
 
North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/20/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/17/20
 
New York (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/21/20 (highest new cases since 5/22/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/18/20
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/22/20 (highest cases ever on 9/4, 10/16 and 10/22/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/19/20
 
Iowa (Fourth Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/22/20 (highest new cases ever on 8/28/20 and 10/22/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/19/20 (data is problematic)
 
Maryland (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/22/20 (October is new case highs for third wave)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/19/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
Indiana (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever 10/9, 10/22 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever 10/16 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Arizona (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20 (data is problematic)
 
Vermont (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases for this wave on 10/5 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
California (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Oregon (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever are 7/26 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Texas (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases since 8/25/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20 (data is problematic)
 
Tennessee (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever 10/21 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases on 4/24, 4/30 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever on 10/20 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Utah (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Colorado (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases 10/22 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Idaho (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases 10/16 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
New Mexico (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever on 10/16, 10/21 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20
 
Montana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever 10/22 and 10/23/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
South Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Alaska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20
 
Wyoming (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/20/20

That is 47 US States on the sh*t-list. Pitiful. But go to a Trump rally, where they pass out rose-colored glasses, and you will see that the virus just went around the corner and is disappearing. At the presidential debate last Thursday, Trump said a vaccine is only weeks away. The moderator thought that to be important breaking news and asked for more details but it was simply the president talking out of his butt again. Humorously, he said that time frame is not guaranteed but he then quickly said a vaccine will be approved by year-end, again pulling his comments out of his orange flabby butt.

The above data clearly shows that the United States is in trouble again. We are likely only days, if not hours, away from the population panicking again like the springtime. Stock-up on paper towels, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, food, canned vegetables, bibles, butter, ammunition, salsa; you know the drill by now.

Someone needs to tell Trump that hope, grandiose illusions and wishful thinking is not a strategy to defeat the virus. This has been the problem all along. 50 states are off in 50 different directions with King Donnie criticizing missteps but at the same time refusing to coordinate and organize the pandemic response from a Federal level. The pandemic is missing leadership on the country and world stage. Americans are burning out from pandemic fatigue since there isn’t any cohesive uniform message about what to do, how to protect the family or how to proceed with life and work.

The worst 28 states, based on new cases at all-time record highs over the last few days, are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa and Illinois but the other 19 states making up the 47 total are also in bad shape.

The United States map above displays the 28 worst red zone states and the blue lines show the major interstate roadways crisscrossing the country. The map is provided courtesy of the Mapchart.net site that has great interactive mapping tools. The map is annotated by Keystone. It is interesting how the states experiencing the worst outbreaks in recent days correspond directly to the major interstate road routes. It appears that coronavirus is spread along these major roadways and it branches out from there. The two main areas where Canada and the US interact are via Route 15 at the Montana border and via Routes 89 and 93 at the Vermont/New York border with Canada. There may also be transmission via Route 29 that moves north-south through Fargo, North Dakota.

The East and West Coasts are prime areas where infected people enter and leave the country. Asymptomatic travelers land in the major airport hubs of Boston, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Denver, Portland and Los Angeles, to name a few, and then distribute the disease from there. Routes 25 and 35 are the major interfaces with Mexico that likely account for a lot of virus transmission.

Food and other products are distributed via trucks from the coasts inward towards the Midwest; Routes 40, 70 and 80 are key. Anyone driving late on a Sunday evening on a major Pennsylvania interstate, or enjoying the scenic PA Turnpike, will see dozens of semi-tractor trailers hauling produce and other goodies from the East Coast to the middle states. The railroads travel along the same corridors. There may be a lot of virus transmission occurring through the movement of goods and services across the major roadways in the United States.  Anyone that has pushed coronavirus worries aside and is traveling freely is using the interstate road system so it makes sense that the hot zones would correspond to the regions hosting these major roadways. This is a fascinating area that warrants more study.

With the US presidential election at the doorstep, key battleground states such as North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio, the path to taking the Whitehouse, are all descending into covid Hell. This is not a good outcome for President Trump that wants to avoid talking about the virus.

South Dakota remains mired in the covid quagmire after the Sturgis motorcycle rally in August. Long live Sturgis! Tough biker dudes are now laying on the basement floor in the fetal position praying to the All Mighty that they will recover. Rhode Island was an uppity state early in the pandemic this year placing restrictions on other neighboring states as to who may cross the border. Rhode Island did not want any of those smelly infected people near their clean state but that does not matter anymore since they are as filthily-infected with covid as everyone else is now. Chicago, Illinois, begins a curfew between 10 PM and 6 AM when non-essential businesses must remain closed.   

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment. Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical support staffs will be working through the upcoming holidays. Virtually hug a caregiver; they may be the ones caring for you a few weeks from now.

The news flow concerning the virus is non-stop. The world is swallowed-up by the spreading pandemic. There are 44 vaccines in human trials around the world; 12 in China. Sinovac Biotech’s CoronaVac is approved for emergency use in China but how do you trust a vaccine from the filthy communists that released the coronavirus bioweapon upon the world?

Russia continues boasting about its Sputnik V vaccine but it is more Ruskie bluster. The vaccine is not a cure-all and the fine print says it is not for people over 60 years old (then what good it is?). Russia lashes out at the UK’s vaccine calling it a “monkey” vaccine. Dictator Putin has not taken the Sputnik V vaccine.

The Pfizer and BioNTech partnership uses the new mRNA technology and expects results over the next couple weeks and a decision on its safety and efficacy by the end of November. The Moderna trials continue and this vaccine also uses the new mRNA technology. The downside is that two shots will likely be required and if you talk to any doctor they will say one of the toughest things is to get a patient to come back for a booster shot. Two shots may be a tough sell to the public.

The AstraZeneca and Oxford University partnership vaccine was placed on hold after a patient became sick with a neurologic disorder. The US trials are set to restart. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was also placed on hold after a patient became ill but this may be one of the placebo patients and the trials are set to restart.

The vaccine landscape is not as positive as months ago. President Trump said that a vaccine would be provided by Election Day. That’s not going to happen. It was simply more bluster and made-up stuff from Our Donnie. NIH Director Collins opines that coronavirus can “be here for years” if people do not have confidence in a vaccine. Collins says vaccine approval “may not occur this year” although he is “cautiously optimistic.” Collins says the FDA will likely not approve a vaccine that is less than 50% effective. His name will be promptly removed from the Whitehouse Christmas card list.

Therapeutics and treatment regimens will probably be far more useful in fighting the pandemic for the weeks and months ahead. A regimen of different drugs including Remdesivir and steroids helped President Trump recover. The MATH+ Hospital Treatment Protocol for COVID-19 is gaining popularity but shunned by some aloof practitioners. The treatment regimen is developed by a consortium of doctors that use FDA-approved medicines that are cheap and readily available. That’s likely the problem. Big pharma cannot see a way to making big bucks off such straight forward treatments and medicines so they have no interest in promoting the protocol. MATH is an acronym.

The MATH+ protocol is intended for treatment of hospitalized patients and uses methylprednisolone (steroids), ascorbic acid (vitamin C), thiamine (vitamin B-1) and heparin (anticoagulant for blood-clotting). The ‘+’ sign is for additional vitamins and supplements such as melatonin (sleep), zinc (immune system), vitamin D, atorvastatin (statin) and famotidine (stomach acid reliever such as Pepcid). The president was given much of this treatment with a successful outcome. ICU patients have recovered using the MATH+ protocol. This is great news and requires much more attention and study. Trump should glean onto and cheerlead this real positive tangible news instead of making up stupid stuff.

The fiscal stimulus Kabuki theater has become a joke. Each day, Pelosi and Mnuchin say there is progress but it sounds more like two politicians trying to run out the clock into the election and sort out a stimulus plan once the winner is crowned. The lack of stimulus for common Americans as they watch the wealthy elite play games each day will only exacerbate the class war beginning in America. Riots and violence are coming to a city and town near you; and looting. The greedy rich took all the money in the rigged crony capitalism system and now it’s payback time.

President Trump says, “Testing is foolish.” The lack of a coordinated coronavirus testing plan across America is one of the failures of Trump’s handling of the pandemic. The president wants to slough-off higher positive test numbers by blaming it on more testing this same stupid argument the last few months.  Coronavirus can never be tamed or understood without lots of test data. Biden tries to contrast himself from Trump by providing a detailed plan for handling the coronavirus pandemic.

Testing remains a problem since there are false positives and false negatives. If one of the very detailed tests are used that picks up every little virus trace, some scientists claim that as many as 90% of the positive tests may be identifying old and inactive viruses that are not contagious anymore. The slow turnaround of test results remains a major problem. If you are notified two days or a week later that you test positive and need to quarantine, the test is rendered almost useless. That is too much time to lapse where the virus could be spread. It is incompetence that all these months can go by and the testing, tracking and tracing program remains inadequate.

The United States can learn a lot from other nations especially the Asian countries such as South Korea and Japan, that have dealt with pandemics over the last three decades. America needs faster turnarounds for testing, more testing in the poor areas of the country, and better tracking and tracing. The tracking program breaks down if the positive test rate is over 5% and the US is above this number now with the current pandemic increasing. An effective tracking and testing program needs the test positivity rate to drop to 3% and lower preferably down to 1% where the tracing program can shine. The US should also employ pool testing where groups of people are tested with low-cost simple tests and if a positive test appears, the group can be called back for detailed testing. These tools and procedures exist but if the guy in charge says all is fine, none of it matters.

Trump proclaims, “We will quickly end this pandemic.” The president believes he can wave his small hand and the whole pandemic will go away, “disappear” as he said many months ago. The pandemic is worsening. Trump uses humans as foils for any political issue but a disease, that simply does what it wants to do, does not listen or become distracted by Donnie’s rants. The president’s frustration is palpable as he continues to try and divert the discussion away from the coronavirus pandemic but it is impossible for Americans to ignore the 900-pound covid gorilla sitting on the living room sofa.  If people are thinking about coronavirus in 10 days, Trump is going to lose the election.

More bad news for the Trump-Pence ticket. Pence’s chief of staff Marc Short tests positive for coronavirus as does a political adviser Mary Obst. Pence is the guy running the so-called coronavirus task force, now looking like a flaming incompetent, as the people around him are becoming sick with covid. Pence claims that he is tested and not infected and he refuses to quarantine. Trump and Pence are all-in pretending the virus does not pose a significant threat; Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. The nobility class never follows the same rules that are decreed upon the huddled masses. Obst and Pence were photographed not wearing masks at the first presidential debate two weeks ago. The incubation period for coronavirus is from 2 to 14 days.

The negative virus news each day punches another hole in the Donnie Trump reelection boat that is taking on water. The president is unable to shift the discussion away from the virus and the Pence news will dominate Sunday’s news cycle. Pence is frantically trying to bail-out the water from the Trump reelection boat using a Maxwell House coffee can, that has ‘vaccine’ written on the side, but the water keeps rising. Trump is in a heck of a pickle with the election only days away. The virus pandemic is worsening as the president holds multiple rallies each day telling his fan base that all is fine. It is bazaar. Trump will look clueless and out-of-touch in a week if the current trajectory continues.

During the Iraq War, Baghdad Bob would tell the Iranians that the troops are holding back the American soldiers valiantly—as you see US tanks moving through the video in the background. Baghdad Donnie tells America that the virus is “going away” and the “pandemic is ending” while behind him exhausted healthcare workers push sheet-covered bodies to the morgue; 230,000 of them.

Note Added Sunday, 10/25/20: Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows says, "We (USA) are not going to control the virus." Dear Lord. That is a disturbing statement. Trump has all his eggs in the vaccine basket; that has been his entire plan this year which is a very poor strategy. Michigan’s new cases explode higher. The Great Lakes State had its fun at campaign rallies and other events as well as part of the population proudly displaying their defiance of mask-wearing. Now they must pay the price. The Michigan new cases chart is added to the others above. There are nearly 3.5K new cases in Michigan on 10/24/20. Trump plans rallies in Michigan before the election so that will be interesting as the covid cases ramp higher. There are now four Pence aids that are sick with covid but a defiant Mikey is going forward with a rally in North Carolina today. The election means more to these people than the huddled masses' health. If Pence tests positive over the next day or two it would be devastating to Trump's reelection hopes. North Carolina is a must-win for Trump. If he loses this state, the election results will quickly go south for Donnie. If Trump wins North Carolina, he has a chance to emerge victorious like 2016. This is why Pence hides his cough and high temperature and jumps on an airplane headed south.

Note Added Sunday, 10/25/20, at 2:00PM EST: Tennessee is imposing mask-wearing guidelines as cases rise. El Paso, Texas, is encouraging people to stay at home for the next two weeks. The El Paso hospital system is at 100% capacity. New Jersey citizens are receiving robo-calls warning of an increase in infections and instructing people on mask-wearing, social distancing and hand washing guidelines. A fifth person associated with Pence tests positive with covid. That is developing into a mess. Every few hours, another person becomes infected in Pence's orbit but these are supposed to be the smart people watching out for Americans. Good luck to everyone. Former FDA commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb warns Americans that we are now at  "dangerous tipping point" over the next two weeks. RBI (Reserve Bank of India; India's central bank) Governor Shaktikanta Das tests positive for coronavirus. Pelosi and Mnuchin are pointing fingers at each other playing baby political games with the fiscal stimulus bill. Each accuses the other of moving the goal posts. US futures begin trading and indicate a drop of about -0.6% for the major stock indexes on Monday. Markets are becoming nervous due to the lack of US fiscal stimulus and watching the spread of coronavirus across Europe and North America.

Note Added Monday, 10/26/20: Spain imposes a national curfew from 11 PM to 6 AM. Italy is limiting  bar and restaurant hours and imposing other restrictions to try and stop the coronavirus outbreak. Social unrest is rising across Europe as citizens do not want lockdowns. European and US futures are trading lower. Wall Street is headed for losses of about -0.8% when the stock market opens unless happy stimulus or vaccine talk occurs. Wall Street crumbles on lack of a fiscal stimulus deal and the developing fear that the virus is spreading again. The S&P 500 drops -2%. The Dow plummets -2.3%. The tech stocks in the Nasdaq Index drop -1.6%. Germany's DAX Index drops nearly -4%. The view across the pond does not look good as the virus spreads.

Note Added Tuesday, 10/27/20: As covid spreads across Europe, northern Italy explodes in protests; a lockdown revolt. Spaniards are also suffering pandemic fatigue. Citizens followed the rules these many months but now coronavirus is spreading like wildfire again. The riots and social unrest will be coming to the United States as folks realize the virus trouble is expanding. Lockdown revolts will enable mobs of people to throw bricks through windows and loot. The wealthy elite raped the United States for all its worth over the last five decades so now the huddled masses want some, too. Keystone's cousin's father Joe, 88 years young, passes away from covid. The cousin became ill with coronavirus as well but recovered. The virus hits everyone be it white, black, yellow, brown, green or purple. Poor ole Joe did not receive the same treatment as King Trump. The IHME estimates that 485K people will be dead from covid by 2/1/21 if mask and social distancing guidelines are relaxed. That is double the current death count at 231K dead. The IHME says the current pace will result in 385K total dead by 2/1/21. The number can be lowered to 323K if everyone wore a mask, according to the IHME. The Eli Lilly antibody trial will end as the treatment does not help hospitalized patients. The AstaZeneca vaccine news is more hopeful with the treatment creating an immune response in older people. German Chancellor Merkel calls for a "lockdown-light." Coronavirus hits the republican-leaning FoxNews network with several people in quarantine after attending the presidential debate last Thursday including Jay Wallace, Bret Baier, Martha MacCallum, Juan Williams (liberal) and Dana Perino. It is unknown who tested positive. FoxNews walks a fine line following the mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines as company policy but at the same time downplaying the same rules on air in news stories. Trump is conducting rallies trying to drum up enthusiasm for the election. Over one-half of the voting public have already voted especially young people. The president continues downplaying the virus which is fascinating to watch each day into the election only one week away (next Tuesday, 11/3/20). As coronavirus spreads across the US in the coming days, while Donnie insists that the virus is rounding the corner and going away, one of them is going to be proven wrong; and the virus is not going away anytime soon.