SPXS&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern; Sideways Channel; Price Extended

The bulls have tried to use the diamond pattern to break out to new highs but they cannot get above 7600, at least not yet, to confirm the breakout. The diamond pattern may fall to the wayside if the bulls cannot push price any higher.

The purple sideways channel at 7350-7560 encompasses most of the price action over the last 2-1/2 months and after all the drama, price is in the middle at 7458 not knowing which way to go. Note that price closed below both the 20-day MA at 7479 and 50-day MA at 7465. Bulls got nothing unless they can climb back above these levels. The 20-week MA is at 7161. The 100-day MA is 7151. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the after party at the final world cup game, if the lower channel rail at 7350 fails, price is likely going down to the 7151-7161 support.

The 150-day MA continues sloping higher so the SPX remains in a cyclical bull market pattern but watch the 150 to see if it flattens and then rolls over lower that spells major trouble ahead. The blue dots show how price is extended above the 20-day MA above the 50-day above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 desperately requiring a mean reversion lower.

The red lines show negative divergence at play wanting to spankdown price and smack, that was a hard slap on Friday, that will turn any buttock cheek red. The Aroon shows the never-ending bullish euphoria continuing for the stock market. No one believes that stocks will ever go down again like the dot-com and Great Recession bubbles. The top in early June was easy to call due to the neggie d, overbot conditions, price extended above the moving average ribbon, and the bullish euphoria in the Aroon.

The set-up is very similar now. The Aroon green line shows that nearly all the bulls think stocks will go up forever. No surprise. The red line, however, shows that all the bears also believe that stocks will go up forever. When everyone is partying on one side of the boat, it capsizes, and people drown.

There are lots of crazy crosscurrents in the stock market these days. A move above 7550, then 7600, will create the path higher for bulls. A move below 7350 will usher in more weakness and a failure at 7230 will open the gates of Hell. Everything inside the sideways channel at 7350-7560 is noise and choppy slop.

King Donnie maintains his first-term legacy as a whining cry-baby sore loser with a speech the other night moaning about his 2020 election loss. Give it a rest, dude. Who even listened to that dribble? If you did, that is a couple hours of your life that you will never get back. King Crybaby. Six years later, and Trumpski still cannot accept his loss against brain-dead Sleepy Joe Biden. The orange head should be focused on stopping the Iran War that is spinning out of control. He can bomb as much as he wants but we are now in the new Global Drone War Era. The supply of cheap drones fitted with explosive warheads are limitless. It is a simple basic technology that is difficult, if not impossible to stop, unless there is regime change. Trumpski opened the door to this mess, a brave new world of drone warfare and terrorism, and still does not understand what is happening.

Iran can use the cheap $20K and $30K drones to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as US bases in the Middle East, and neighboring Arab countries, anytime they want in the future. That cannot be stopped unless ground troops invade the country and remove the IRGC (regime change). Drones have the capability to destroy everything on Earth going forward. Resistance is futile. King Donnie knows, or should know, that the only way he can stop the hostilities in the Middle East is if he removes the regime in Iran and replaces it with a government that agrees not to be a hostile neighbor, but he is a political showman worried about the mid-term elections only 15 weeks away. Good luck wit dat as they say in the Bronx. Donnie is in over his orange head in Iran and says he wants to keep his options open like a woman in her 30's, now in her 40's. Options Open by Kathleen Edwards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: It's Tuesday afternoon, and I'm just beginning to see, now I'm on my way. Tuesday Afternoon by the Moody's. The SPX comes up to back kiss the 50-day MA at 7469 and 20-day MA at 7478. Price is at 7509 so the bulls are happy but they must maintain the support at 7469-7478, otherwise, a downside flush will continue. The SPX loves that sideways channel at 7350-7560 so watch that top rail at 7560 to see if the bulls can pop above. If not, price will likely leak lower again to test the lower rail at 7350. The Iran War becomes messier each day. King Donnie has been hiding information on US soldiers hurt in action that likely number over 100. The idiot keeps saying that Iran wants to make a deal. Give that a rest dude. Donnie Chump sounds like a moron every time he spouts the untruths. Don't you understand that you are dealing with religious fanatics, jackass? Iranians care about Allah and becoming a martyr not hotels and girls in bikinis. The orange one says the US is in control of the Strait of Hormuz and yet not one ship passes. That is called not having control over the Strait of Hormuz. WTIC oil at 85-ish means that a lot higher gasoline prices are on the come and the US public will be very unhappy. Oil dipped to 67 on 7/2/26 and pops almost 20 bucks in only a couple weeks after Donnie escalated the war in Iran. Since oil creeps higher each day, gasoline prices will creep higher every day. Americans may have to start paying for gasoline on an installment plan; same with the meat at the grocery store. What a mess. The rumor mill says Khomeini may have fled the country. If true, it may be worse for the situation since the IRGC is in full control and they have no desire to talk (but Chump will tell everyone they are dying to make a deal). Iran is 90 million people with 10 million radical Islamists and 80 million regular Muslim folks. The IRGC are the radical terrorist soldiers but remember, these dudes are married and have families, and lots of kids, and parents and grandparents, so that is a formidable task to change the regime in Iran and have the 10 million people that lean radical, because that is how their daily bread is buttered, to ditch their religious beliefs, and change their ways, and welcome a modernized society into Iran.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/22/26, at 6:10 AM EST: King Donnie finally backpedals from the talk that Iran desperately wants a deal. He is now honest and says it does not appear that Iran wants to talk, but he will likely continue talking out of both sides of his orange mouth. That's Our Donnie. WTIC crude oil pops above 88!! Brent oil is over 95!! Folks, run out today and fill your gas tank for the car and the gas cans for the lawn equipment. Gasoline prices are going nowhere but up from here. People were worried about $4 per gallon gasoline but they should be more worried about $5 gas. The concern is not so much the oil price it is the prices of all the derivative products made from oil now in short supply. This will create more inflation, er, Trumpflation. Commodities indexes continue spiking higher indicating more Trumpflation ahead. Donnie's self-imposed Iran War mess continues. The US expands its military targets in Iran like Pickaxe Mountain where nuclear activity occurs and centrifuge equipment may be hidden there. Donnie is screwed, however, because he ushered in the new Global Drone War Era so nowhere is safe around the world when $20K drones fit with an explosive warhead can attack anything at anytime. Welcome to a Brave New World. This is Donnie's legacy.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; United States Enters Double-Dip Housing Recession on 7/17/26

You were warned a month or so ago, here is the prior article when the housing recovery was hanging on by its fingernails, but alas, it falls off the cliff again. The United States started a housing recovery in February of this year ending the long over 3-year housing recession that no one noticed. The housing recovery, however, only ran for 5 months and it ended yesterday ushering in a double-dip housing recession.

In years gone by, manufacturing, housing and labor recessions, all were occurring over the last couple years or so, would guarantee an overall economic recession for America. Not anymore. Tech and AI runs the show now and the obscene spending and expansion of this fledgling, yet to be proven, technology stops the country from slipping into overall recession. Also, the wealth effect felt by America's privileged elite, that raped the financial system for all its worth over the last few decades, with the help of the Fed's money-printing, is fueling consumer spending that also keeps the overall recession bear at bay.

Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Amvets party and fireworks show on July 4th, the last couple years were a battle between the manufacturing, housing and labor recessions against consumer spending (by the rich that control the crony capitalism system) and AI revolution. The consumer spending fueled by the wealth effect (the rich see their stocks going to the moon and keep asking why everyone is so glum) and AI hype staves off the overall recession for the US but how long will this occur?

Half the country does not own a single share of stock so the easy money games, and gains, over the years purely enriched the wealthy class effortlessly while the common American was hosed. No wonder why tens of millions of Americans no longer give a sh*t and social unrest increases with each passing week. There is no American Dream since the game is rigged by the wealthy class. Common folks no longer have any skin in the game and no longer expect their lives, or their children's lives, to be better. The wealthy class skinned the poor, and the middle class that no longer exists. The US is a faux free market crony capitalism system with 30 million privileged elite and upper class sycophants, that service the elite, at the top and 300 million peons at the bottom. Once you accept the fact that capitalism does not exist, it will all make sense to you.

So here we are with a new housing recession period beginning. The reason the news is bad is because inflation is on the rise at the same time. Trumpflation, due to King Donnie's tariffs and Iran War, remains elevated and floating higher and can only be stopped with higher rates. However, that would be a disaster to raise rates now with the housing sector slipping back into a double-dip recession. A hike in rates would completely crush the housing market and send the US into an overall recession, finally.

Fed Chairman Warsh, with the perfect hair, will probably leave rates as is on 7/29/26 and punt until the next meeting. Warsh has helmet hair like Bobby Goldsboro. Warsh is actually bald and his hair is a plastic mold. He picks it up off the Styrofoam head on the nightstand each morning and places it on his bald noggin. That is why every hair is in its place; it is a plastic mold. Most of you young folks do not know Bobby Goldsboro. He was a famous singer decades back and had hair that looked like someone cut it with a bowl on his head. His nickname was Helmet Head and Helmet Hair and he took it all in stride as good fun. Honey was his classic song. Lots of folks would cry when he sang Honey since everyone in life loses loved ones. Now that the housing recession is back, and an overall recession may be on the come, everyone will soon be crying.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross

Long-time followers have seen this indicator many times over the years. Long-time reminds you of a song. Foreplay/Long Time by Boston. A key cyclical stock market indicator is the NYA 40-week MA cross. What? There's that Greek again. What is he talking about?

The festivities are starting. The NYA weekly chart above is in full negative divergence across all indicators so the top is locked-in on the weekly basis. The stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. It is up in nosebleed territory so it has a long way down to come once it gives up the ship.

The NYA 40-wk MA at 22626 and rising is the cyclical bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 23817 so about 1200 points above. The bulls are sipping Fed wine and smoking fine cigars dabbing the ashes onto the faces of the huddled masses. A drop to the critical line in the sand that would send stocks into a cyclical bear market and pain and misery ahead is only -5% away.

However, the weekly chart is now neggie d. Thus, it will receive a spankdown and drop for several weeks. The 5% could disappear quickly so keep an eye on it. Write 22.7K on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. If price drops to that level, you know that the stock market is likely falling into the abyss.

The bears are up at bat going forward so let's see if they can first attain the 23K level that is the 20-wk MA. Just think, late this year and in 2027, it is likely that price will be all the way down to touch and fall through the 200-week MA. There is lots of congestion at 19K-20K so it may take effort to saw through that level down the road.

If you bring up the NYA monthly chart, you can see all the indicators in negative divergence except the MACD line. This is on a multi-month basis and tells you that THE top is at our doorstep. We are talking a 2000 dot-com bubble, or 2008-2009 Great Recession. The weekly chart above is topped out so over the next couple weeks, as July ends, watch the MACD on the monthly because it will tell you on 7/31/26 if THE long-term multi-month perhaps multi-year top is in place. If the MACD starts sloping down by month-end, it is over folks. The multi-week downside will be child's play compared to the gloom, despair, pain and agony ahead on the monthly basis. In the 1970's and early 1980's, Hee-Haw was a fun show that families would watch together on Saturday night at 7 PM EST and then All in the Family would be on after that. Gloom, Despair, and Agony On Me. 

If the MACD remains upward-sloping at the end of this month, the NYA may need a month or two before THE top is in place to provide time for the MACD to go neggie d. Also in play is the MACD up in nosebleed territory so if it fell without going neggie d, that would not be surprising (THE long-term top is now with the weekly chart rolling over and the monthly to follow).

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? I don't understand half the stuff this guy is saying. Very simply, the top is in for the NYA right now on the weekly basis so it will travel lower, in a couple fits and starts, for several weeks. If the MACD line on the monthly chart rolls over, it is over for the stock market on a long-term basis. If the MACD on the monthly still slopes higher on 7/31/26, THE top will only be delayed by a month or two at most (a few weeks) and you would have to stay on guard since it could fall apart at any time. You are watching a significant long-term top form in real-time.

This is a lot different analysis than all the yahoo's on television and the internet calling for SPX 8.3K and higher by year end and SPX 9K in 2027. What are they smoking. Tell them to get out of those vape shops and get back to work. They will probably see a 5-handle on the SPX at year-end instead of an 8-handle. As things slide lower, you know what to watch; 22.7K-ish. Roy Clark was a musician's musician; his abilities were legendary but he always liked to have fun, act goofy, and play down his exceptional talent, to constantly surprise the audience, a hallmark of a great entertainer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: NYA 23890. The 20-wk MA is 23.1K. The 40-wk MA major line in the sand and demarcation into a cyclical bear market is 22.7K.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross: Stock Market Slips into a Short-Term Bear Market Pattern

Whooposies daisies. There is a lot of whoopsie daisying going on these days. One of Keystone's key cyclical, or short-term is a better word, indicators is the SPX 1-hour chart with 200 EMA cross. What'd he say? That sounds like Greek. The short-term bear market fell apart in late June as the Trump happy Iran War talk and the ongoing AI orgy sent stocks higher.

There were a couple tests of the ST bull in July. You can see how price bounced off the 200 EMA support. Do you think it is an important number? Obviously, the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7475 carries clout and it failed last week opening the door to a ST bear market. It would be reasonable to expect a back test of the 200 early next week. Give it a day or two to see if the new short-term bear market pattern is cast in concrete, or not. If so, the next step would be watching to see if it develops into a cyclical bear market for many weeks and months ahead.

A really important person passed away in recent days. It is a shame hearing about the death of that individual that was a great international spokesperson for a better world. The news of that person passing is sad and will impact countries and people all over the world. Talk about a great legacy. That person will be missed by an international audience. Yes, by now, you know who we are talking about. Yes, that is right. Bonnie Tyler. Huh? Oh, some of you thought it was that Graham character. No, he was just another corrupt politician. However, it is sad news that Bonnie died. She was a fantastic singer with a raspy voice.

Bonnie sang a bunch of hits but It's a Heartache will always be her signature song. There was something about her raspy voice and heartache that went together. As her singing career was taking off in the late 1970's, she had trouble with her vocal chords. It only got worse. They were permanently damaged and her voice would forever be scratchy and raspy. She was sad thinking that her music career was over as fast as it was starting but they decided to record songs anyways. It's A Heartache was an immediate international hit. In quick order, Bonnie Tyler was famous and an international singing sensation. If you turned on the radio in the late 1970's and early 1980's you would hear this song within 10 minutes. The song also matched the times since the 70's were difficult with high inflation and the Iranian hostage crisis. There was not a lot going right at the time. Her voice was great all the way up until she died. R.I.P. Bonnie. Your voice will live on forever; a great legacy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute is 7476 with price at 7509 busting up through to keep the bears at bay. Bulls are high-fiving one another but it would be prudent for a back test of 7476 to occur to make sure the bulls really want it. The SPX 7476 is key and tells you who will win going forward. Bears need 33 points lower in the SPX or they are going to get beaten like a rented mule. Warren from Government Mule performing Soulshine with his Martin hand made in Pennsylvania. Excellent.

SOX Semiconductors Daily Chart; Textbook Head and Shoulders (H&S) So Far; Gap Fills; SOX Crashes -20.3% Off the Top into a Bear Market

Whoopsies daisies. It looks like the CHIPS have skidded out on the highway. Ponch! Ponch! The semiconductors have been the most popular girl at the dance but her fame is fleeting after it is discovered that she has two left feet. The chips move south after creating a textbook H&S pattern, at least so far.

The head is at 14630 and neck at 12200 so that is 2430 difference. Take that away from 12200 and you get 9770 as the downside target if the neckline fails. SOX is making that decision right now. It is bounce, or die, time.

Price comes down and fills that orange gap as it decides what to do. There are numerous other orange gaps that need filled down below so many that it looks like Swiss cheese. Did you know they started to put fake holes in the Swiss cheese? Next time you go to the deli counter, grab some Swiss and you will see the holes are perfect circles cut by a die-cutter blade. It probably takes too long to allow the cheese to form the holes naturally so do it the phony-baloney way. No one notices.

The 12200 support is key since it has held for a couple months and served as resistance in May. Will the chips fail right here and allow the H&S to play out and begin the popping of the AI bubble, or, will price simply bounce from here and say 'never mind' like Emily Latella? Gilda was great; she got screwed in life.

The entire fate of artificial intelligence going forward hinges on the chart above. Will it live, or die? The price drops to 12023, so this is a key number, and now rebounds to 12280 and more as the bulls try to pump the chips and stay out of trouble. Keystone is short the chips but the trade is flat after the choppy slop. State of Mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: The battle at the 12200 neckline rages on. That 12023 was the LOD yesterday and price recovered to 12418, then stumbled into the closing bell at 12399.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: Whoopsies daisies. The chips take the pipe yesterday dropping to 11868. The neck fails so the downside target at 9770 is on the table.  Keep an eye out for a back kiss of the neckline in the days ahead. Otherwise, the gap fill at 11.5K is next. SOX was at 14655 only 18 trading days ago (6/22/26) and collapses to 11.8K-ish. Within one month, the dirty SOX crash -19.5% a hair away from the media's metric for a bear market at -20%. Perhaps that threshold gives way today. SMH is dropping -3% and XSD -2% in the pre-market so that points to a loss in the SOX on tap today, at least in the early going. China says Moonshot will be the top AI dog and no one needs all those expensive US chips. The communists sing that it is a marvelous night for a Moondance. 

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: The SOX drops to 11194 and ends the week at 11674 crashing -10% in the last 5 days and now down -20.3% in a bear market. The 20-wk MA is 10.8K and rising and may serve as support. The dirty SOX are in the bear market hamper.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: The SOX rallies to 12356 with dip-buyers tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy. The 50-day MA is 12769. Price comes up to back test the neckline of the H&S at 12200 and floats a bit higher to the 12356. Price would roll over from here and drop if the H&S pattern plays out going forward.

SPCX SpaceX 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence

It is futile to trade SpaceX technically since it is still an infant. SPCX has been available for 21 trading days so the weekly charts got nothing unless you want to look at a 6-week MA. Same-o for the daily chart. If you bring that up, you see the IPO price at 135 and the stock opened at 150. It popped above 225 as the biggest fool bot with both fists and is now wearing a barrel.

There is a 20-day MA at 161.40 that started over the last couple days (because it is now 21 days old). Price is below the 20-day so that is a bearish vibe. The RSI is flattish on the daily chart but slips slightly lower losing the 50% level slipping into bear territory. The stochastics, however, are oversold, with nowhere to go but up in the daily time frame. Money flow is also positively diverged on the daily chart agreeable to a move higher from here on the daily basis. A lower standard deviation band number is 126, again, all this data is fresh and you cannot read a lot into it since the stock is so young, so price may want to try and tag that 126 before a sustainable run higher on the daily basis occurs.

All that mumbo-jumbo brings us to the 2-hour chart above that finally has some technical aspects to assess. The blue lines show the IPO price at 135 and the opening price at 150. The 150 was held through Friday, July 10th, and then the bottom fell out. There must have been a backroom deal with market makers and bankers to maintain the 150 price until 7/10/26. Maybe they also have an agreement to hold the 135 for a certain amount of time?

Regardless, SPCX falls to 136 only a buck above its IPO price not exactly the ringing endorsement of the future that many had hoped for but again, it is an infant in the stock market and it has to learn to crawl before it can walk.

The 2-hour chart is a happy set-up for SpaceX. The green lines show price making the lower low while all the chart indicators are sloping higher, positive divergence, so she is loaded up with fuel and ready for blast-off in the 2-hour time frame (the day-traders and swing traders playground). Price also violated the lower band so a move to the middle band at 145 is on the table. Price should bounce in this time frame and perhaps seek a back kiss of the 150 since that did not yet occur.

The daily chart does not have enough technicals but the happy stochastics and money flow will join the happy times above and send SPCX higher for a couple-few days. Guessing at how the daily chart will develop, however, there is likely still a bit of weakness perhaps to touch the 126 or at least test the 135 price to see if the market makers are supporting it there. Guessing, since there are no technicals, price may want to bump around 126-135 after the couple days of happiness shown above. That may place the bottom in the daily time frame maybe later this week or early next week and begin a multi-day rally that likely takes it back above 150.

What does all this mean? Probably a bounce now in the 2-hour time frame for a day or two then roll over again perhaps down to 126-135 for a few days and that would be a bottom in the daily time frame where price would run higher again from there with a multi-day rally probably above 150 and more. It can only be day-traded now from a technical perspective. Keystone is not in it long or short and probably will not play it. It is likely a good play now for a long but take the profits later today or tomorrow or before the weekend.

The stock is probably worth about $65 so even at its current price it is probably too expensive but hype and crowd behavior can easily send price far higher. The sap and bagholding fool at 225 hopes so. The humanoid talk is comical. Who needs a $30K garbage robot to fold your laundry? It is laughable. Americans have tiny homes and zero in their bank accounts so a nonsense robot like that is a joke. The humanoid could only operate in a large wide open mansion performing stupid duties; it would probably be more of a novelty piece. And electricity and water does not mix; that is why they are not showing the humanoid washing the dishes or watering the garden. Maybe the robot can be trained to wipe your *ss. That' funny.

The reason Musk and SpaceX is into the humanoids is not for us to use but rather for space exploration and military applications. It is surprising that no one talks about the obvious. The humanoids are being refined because you can load up a couple dozen in a space ship and fire them off to the moon or Mars. They can walk around and explore planets and feed the data back to Earth. There would be leaps and bounds in technology quickly instead of waiting for another astronaut to collect a rock and bring it back for analysis. In addition, humanoids and drones will fight the future wars on Earth; the drones are now. Be there or be square.

The satellites and Starlink are the bread and butter for SpaceX but it will be interesting as the space junk fills the black skies above Earth. Linda Perry is a helluva talent and great songwriter. Here is Spaceman from years ago. If you were standing in front of her, the resonance from her voice would knock you over; so powerful for such a small lady. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: SpaceX was receiving lots of attention yesterday as traders and the media watched the price action at the 135 IPO price that was arbitrarily set when the stock went to market. Bloop. Price drops to 132 but closes at the 135. The market makers probably let it go to see if there was support but it did not appear so and then the pump back to 135 occurs. Nothing has changed. The positive divergence on the 2-hour has SPCX fueled up and ready to fly high. You still have to wait for technicals to appear on the daily chart to get a better bearing but the 2-hour wants price to rally for a day or two.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: SpaceX attempts to launch a rocket last night but the mission is aborted. 29 Raptor engines roared to life champing at the bit to launch into the blackness of the universe but alas, 4 engines would not ignite, maybe a Styrofoam coffee cup is stuck in the intake, so the computer brought the system down and told everyone to cool your jets. SPCX drops to the 126 mentioned above. Musk says next week is possible for a relaunch so the stock may stumble sideways until that occurs. The charts price-in the negative news. A few days will give more time for the technical indicators and moving averages to develop on the daily chart. She should recover going forward and the 2-hour, potentially daily chart will be set up for upside. It appears that the launch adds a new twist and some may judge SpaceX on its next launch.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: SPCX ends the week at 124 after the engine failures. It still wants to bounce in the hourly time frame but may be soggy in the daily time frame depending on how the chart lines start forming.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: SPCX 124. It dropped to 119.68 yesterday.  A couple more days will reveal more of the technical lines. The 2-hour bounces for 3 candlesticks, the rolls over so it will depend on how the daily chart sets up that will probably be positive but we will see how it goes.

GTX Commodities Daily Chart Explains Trumpflation

The story of Trumpflation is a twisted tale. King Donnie Chumpski has done nothing to lower prices for common Americans. Toss that campaign promise in the trash with the others. GTX and CRB charts are the same. Both tickers are made up of many commodities, including oil, and are a representation of goods inflation. Of course, when oil prices rise, you feel it at the gasoline pump and those higher fuel costs increase prices across the board.

Sleepy Joe Biden was a mess of a president but what can you expect from a man with early onset of dementia, and Alzheimer's on the side, that spent each day eating chocolate pudding and looking for his hat. Inflation was bumping higher as Trump was elected in November 2024 and the path of higher inflation continued into early 2025. A pullback occurs in goods inflation as prices ebb and flow with the seasons and other factors. Donnie Chump is quick to pounce on the good news and claims credit for lowering inflation within a few months of his presidency. That joy did not last long.

Trumpski then imposed tariffs on other countries starting April 2025 friend or foe. It was a mechanism that guaranteed that the attention, and cameras, would be pointed at his orange face every day forward; it was a narcissist's dream. Of course, tariffs increase inflation as the orange dolt proclaims that tariffs will decrease inflation. He is not a very smart man, in fact, he is a low IQ individual that is driven by his lust for daily attention and adoration.

At the end of February, over 4 months ago, King Donnie starts the Iran War an unmitigated mess. Oil prices catapult above $100 per barrel sending gasoline and other prices higher crushing the low-income family that already cannot pay the monthly bills. You can see in the chart that goods inflation retreated during late May and June, as oil price came back down with Donnie promising an end to his war, but that slight relief in higher prices has now gone up in a puff of smoke. Probably pot smoke these days. 

Donnie Chump re-escalates the Iran War so oil and other prices are on the rise again. King Donnie is as equally incompetent as Sleepy Joe Biden. Inflation has no effect on you when you are rich; you always buy what you want to buy.

The 30 million Americans at the top, that raped the US financial system for all it is worth starting with Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980's, are asking why is everyone so glum? These privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, that live in the McMansions, control the nation and the other 300 million folks are the peons at the bottom of the food chain that now view the American Dream as the American Joke. The middle class was gutted over the last six decades so the wealthy could have 10 homes, 32 cars, a $40,000 refrigerator, and send their kids to the best schools and colleges to perpetuate the class separation, and on top of all that complain daily about the taxes they pay. The Trumpflation saga is now added on top of that pig slop. Many common Americans cancel their drive and vacation to Atlantic City and the East Coast this year because of the debilitating Trumpflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:17 PM EST: The CPI inflation data is released this morning and the headline number is much tamer than expected at 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. This will make the Fed's job easier since they can stay on hold. They do not want to cut since employment remains steady and buoyant although the housing sector remains challenged. The Fed can delay a hike since inflation is no biggie as the happy data shows. Right? Wrong. The news is groovy for this data set but it represents that period in the chart above at the end of May and June with oil prices dropping and inflation improving, just as the data shows. However, the same data that will be released next month, only about 30 days away, will reflect the upward spike in the maroon circle so everyone will be nervous about rising inflation again. GTX jumps higher to 5320 today so far. You can check CRB later since it is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. Despite the happy data today, you can smell a faint and foul odor of persistent inflation. The jukes and jives with data from one month to the next increases the market drama.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/15/26, at 6:17 AM EST: Fed Chairman Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill yesterday and today and he was baited to say inflation is tamed based on the CPI data. Warsh does not take the bait, since he is looking at charts like the GTX above, and says the inflation mission is not accomplished because the data will likely float higher again for next month. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: GTX is at 5288 trading above 5300 intraday the last couple days.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: GTX 5364. Trumpflation is alive. It's Alive!

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: GTX 5471. She is running higher as the Iran War escalates and oil prices and other commodities shoot higher.

AAPL Apple Daily and Weekly Charts Remain Rotten with Negative Divergence Despite All-Time Record High at 323 Palindrome

Apple squeezes out a new all-time record high at the 323 palindrome but it remains a piece of excrement. Recent happy talk and now a lawsuit against OpenAI has got some sucka's and bagholders in a buying mood again. The daily and weekly charts are in full negative divergence across all indicators so she is cooked in the daily and weekly time frames.

Price may jog for a couple days, especially with Fed drama on tap, but AAPL should receive its neggie d spankdown at any time forward in both the daily and weekly time frames. It is set up for a multi-week pullback so as it drops, you can reference the monthly chart and see if the MACD goes neggie d to identify the top as a long-term multi-month even, multi-year, top. Even if it is not THE top now, it will be within a couple months. After the multiple weeks of downside, AAPL may come up again for a few weeks to seal the deal on the monthly so that long-term top is either now or late August/September (to give a little more time for the MACD on the monthly to go neggie d).

The hype is out of hand today with television analysts yelling buy, buy, buy! Buy this shiny red apple that is rotten on the inside. No charge for the worm. Did you puff out your chest today and buy Apple stock?

Timmy Trader bot 4 big blocks of AAPL stock on the long side and brags to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant, in the breakroom, that he is a better trader than Jesse Livermore. Emily scoffs, laughing at the hapless idiot. Timmy Trader asks Emily why she will not go out with him. Emily flicks her hand as she leaves the breakroom laughing proclaiming that she would never date a man that did not respect neggie d. Timmy is left alone holding a cup of lukewarm coffee wondering what this neggie d and possie d stuff is?

It will be fun to watch going forward. Note today's candlestick with the long upper shadow. That tells you it was a bull versus bear battle all day long and in the end the bears won. Comically, AAPL prints a new all-time record high but the bears won the day. If you own Apple, take the money and run, otherwise, you will be known as Sapple. Keystone is not long or short AAPL and has not played it in a while. If he does trade AAPL going forward, it would be on the short side. The Apple is rotten but the Gin Blossoms are groovin' at a backyard concert gig. Hey Jealousy. Suddenly, all the neighbors want to be friends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: There is lots of happy Apple talk over the last couple days. Apple wants a bigger chunk of the AI pie. Yesterday, is a +4% orgy rally to a new all-time closing high at 328. The orgy pump should last a day or few but the daily chart would simply reset with neggie d again. The weekly chart remains negative so keep an eye on that. The coming days will likely show that the buyers are not as enthusiastic as it appears with yesterday's party.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: Apple is trying to squeeze every last drop of cider juice out of the rotting pulp. AAPL floats higher to 335 and closes at 333 another record high.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: Sapple squeezes out a tiny higher high at 334.99 ending the week at 333.74. Some traders must think that they can hide out in AAPL. The happy talk saves the stock for a few days.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: AAPL 327.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Whipsawing Back to the Long Side

Keytone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side today at SPX 7534 but humorously, wants to already flip back to the short side. The market action is crazy this week. Watch copper and utilities. The flip-flops and mis-directions make you Dizzy like Tommy Roe. Going around in circles all the time.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7451. The quant, however, already wants to whipsaw back to the long side. Utes, chips and retail stocks are key. It may be an interesting morning ahead.

Keybot the Quant