WTIC West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude Oil Daily Charts; Donnie Trump's Iran War Against Radical Islamists Creates Radical Jump in Oil and Gasoline Prices; Supply Shock Occurs Due to Strait of Hormuz Closure

Oil prices are going to Hell in a handbag over the last week due to King Donnie Trumpski's war against the radical Islamists in Iran. Here is a link to the prior oil charts that explain the last 2 weeks of drama. Conditions worsen as the days went on due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world's oil supply travels. Do not forget the food shipments that need to get through this water chokepoint and also vital commodities such as fertilizers. Nations such as Australia are panicking concerned about urea shipments they require. Down Under is a great tune and the ladies love to groove to the beat. What fun.

At Christmastime, all was groovy with low gasoline prices. Keystone was walking around with mistletoe taped on the end of a selfie stick and life was good. Using oil and gasoline prices as his main selling point, Trump claimed that all was fixed with inflation. King Donnie would deny that food and other prices remain high and moving higher (inflation) calling the claims fake news. Of course he did. He proclaimed that lower prices rule the day citing gasoline and eggs (the only two prices that did subside slightly).

The orange one covered himself in front with the fig leaf of lower oil and gasoline prices and covered his backside with a carton of eggs held vertically. Everything else under the sun that Americans buy, including food, homes, utilities and insurance, is higher or remaining high in price (rampant inflation likely morphing into horrible stagflation like the 1970's), and Donnie's fig leaf just fell to the ground. No one wants to see that.

Gasoline prices have a profound impact on consumer sentiment that effects consumer spending. People are not in a good mood as they watch prices at the pump move higher. They know that they have to tighten the purse strings and can no longer spend as they did in prior weeks. Of course, this behavior negatively impacts the economy and markets.

The WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) oil and Brent Crude oil daily charts above show the radical spikes higher in price as the fight against the radical Islamists in the Iran War escalates. Oil is a big deal due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, but the food and fertilizer problems will also take the main stage going forward.

WTIC oil rises from 55 to 92 since Christmastime, so not even 3 months, a huge +67%. WTIC oil tags 92.61 and sits at 91.27 ready for the drama to reignite Sunday evening into Monday morning as markets reopen. Brent oil rises from 59 to 95, a bigtime +61% gain since the holidays. Brent oil runs higher to 94.55 and sits at 92.87. Considering that price is in the 90's, one hundo will likely print in the days ahead maybe on Monday depending on how the Iran War goes this weekend. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so once price exceeded 80 for a few days last week, the 120 level is on the table.

Oil is experiencing a supply shock. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz cuts off 20% of the world's oil supply so bad things are going to happen. When there is less of a commodity, prices go up. You remember supply and demand from high school, right? Or don't they teach this stuff anymore? Less of a commodity can occur through a supply shock where there is a problem with production, or shipping, and the number of available widgets, or oil, are limited, or, a demand shock where there is such a high demand for a product, like a toy at Christmastime that flies off the shelves, that prices jump higher.

The parabolic (vertical) spikes higher shown in the charts above are a supply shock since the amount of available oil is decreasing each day the closing of the strait continues. However, what happens with all commodities, is the parabolic spike, then the radical return to Earth. As a supply shock continues, and the price for the widget, or oil, runs higher and higher, people say 'no mas'. If a company needs a particular part for what they produce, but the price is too high, the business may temporary close until prices recede. A supply shock will then turn into a demand shock. If oil runs above 120, it will no longer be wanted by many that close businesses or in the case of higher gasoline, consumers will stay home and watch television. Once prices subside, demand and supply will return to normal levels, but this will likely not occur until the Iran War is resolved.

Donnie "Two-Week" Trumpski, where the answer to every question about deadlines and timelines is "two weeks," said the war would be resolved in 2 to 4 weeks. Not anymore. As of last evening, now it is 4 to 6 weeks. The world will hurt bigtime economically if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for the next couple months. Only one oil tanker made it through the strait over the last 24 hours.

As a rule of thumb, each 10 buck increase in WTIC oil results in about a 25-cent pop in gasoline price at the pump. Most folks have already seen a jump of 30 cents across America over the last few days. There is almost a 40-dollar pop in oil due to Donnie's war, so that would equate to about a buck pop in gasoline prices. With about 30 cents in the bag, expect another 70 cents higher in gasoline over the coming days and couple weeks.

For example, gasoline in Da Burgh (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA), was about $3.20 during the holidays now at $3.50. It would not be surprising to see gasoline at the pump tag $4 and higher over the coming days and couple weeks. For a 20-gallon fuel tank on a car or light truck, it cost you about $65 to fill-up during the holidays. In a few days or week or two, it will cost you over $85 to fill the same gas tank. Let's all Shake, Rattle and Roll with the price of oil. Everybody dance, come on honey, I believe to my soul, you're the devil and now I know, the harder I work, the faster my money goes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/8/26, Sunday Evening, at 7:00 PM EST: WTIC oil gushes +16 dollars higher, +11%, to 106.60. Wow. One hundo did not take long. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. Oil prices are sinking the stock market ship. Brent oil pops 15 bucks, +16%, to 107.40.  UAE and Kuwait are lowering production. Saudi Arabian oil tanks are filled to the brim with oil sloshing over the top so production will have to be pulled back. Speaking by a guy that has designed, built, and operated oil refineries, LNG plants and other chemical facilities all over the world, the last thing you want to do is shut down a plant. The countries under Iranian fire will probably try to remain in hot shutdowns (hot idle hoping they can bring the equipment back up quickly) but that can only go on for a few days before you will have to shutdown the equipment and furnaces and so forth and that is bad. When you start back up, there will be many headaches to handle; it is the nature of the industrial beast. Oil is in a supply shock because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The world is awash in oil and does not have a problem with overall oil supply. The problem is moving it somewhere with the strait closed. Once storage tanks are full, production must slow or stop since there is no where to put the product. 

Note Added 3/8/26 at 7:20 PM EST: WTIC oil 106.87. Brent oil 107.54.

Note Added 3/8/26 at 8:22 PM EST: WTIC oil 107.59. Brent oil is at 108.16 now sporting a 108-handle. S&P futures are down -120 points at the lows.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 5:00 AM EST: WTIC and Brent pop above 110 minutes after that last post last evening. Overnight, Brent oil jumps to 120. World leaders, incompetents, tell each other they need to meet to discuss the oil prices and potentially release reserves (that will only be a temporary reprieve and oil prices will then resume a higher trend once the magician's trick dissipates). Nonetheless, the happy talk that Help Is On The Way sends oil prices back towards one hundo. For now, 'help' is in the form of 2,000 pound bombs, Big BLU, that shake your soul and make your heart skip when they hit.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 8:35 AM EST: WTIC oil 102. Brent oil 103. King Donnie Trumpski is in the Lincoln Bedroom hiding under the bed. The FedEx guy needs Donnie's signature for the weekly delivery of orange make-up.

Note Added 3/9/26 at 8:35 AM EST: WTIC oil 103.10. Brent oil 104.61. S&P futures -80. VIX 31.81. Everyone is watching the 'yippy' bond market as Trumpski calls it when things are looking dicey and intervention may be required. Secretary Bessent is quiet these days; he just wants to make it to late November, after the mid-term elections, to likely announce his departure. First, he may have to deal with a credit crisis where his actions and outcomes will be etched in US history.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side today at SPX 6805. It is no real surprise considering that the stock market is choppy slop this year. SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction. Jobs report is on tap in the morning.

Keybot the Quant

KOSPI South Korea Index and EWY ETF Daily Chart; South Korea Stocks Crash -20% into Despair

When you mention the KOSPI, you are really talking two stocks that make up 80% of the index; Samsung and SK Hynix. Of course, these two are AI darlings so they could do no wrong; traders bot at any price since artificial intelligence is the future. Hyundai Motor and LG are other recognizable names in the KOSPI.

In only 3 days, South Korea crashes into a bear market the KOSPI crashing -20% and the South Korea EWY ETF crashes -19%. The Uber/UT driver in Seoul that put last week's entire paycheck into the stock market, that the guy on television said was supposed to be guaranteed riches, got so worked up at the money he was losing he drove off the road into a tree. Leverage always plays a role in these types of crashes. Over-leveraged traders that were not paying attention are now walking around wearing a barrel.

The EWY bounced after the crash but there is likely far more wood to chop. The KOSPI is so close to the 50-day MA at 4951 it is worthy of a touch as well as the lower band at 4763. The EWY chart shows how there remains so much money floating around in the world that the dip-buyers could not wait to jump back in. This euphoric and complacent spirit must be busted going forward.

South Korea will be trading in about an hour here on the East Coast on Wednesday evening. The KOSPI chart is updated EOD (end of day). There is a lot of soul-searching going on in Seoul tonight. Are you a Soul Man? Good evening all of you fine ladies and gentlemen.... it is show time...... fresh off the automobile tour........ from Calumet City, Illinois,....give them a big welcome..... the Blues Brothers!! 

Everyone is hyped up on the AI garbage but you keep looking around and see buptkis. AI produces mindless videos for doom scrolling, can write a song or poem or draw a picture, and write reports and aggregate information taking low-wage jobs away from people. It is a large language model that promises to change the world. Believe it when you see it. Artificial intelligence has been around for over 3 years already. Where is the super-hyped AI magical world that the Silicon Valley kids in their fleece sweaters, born from wealthy families, promised? Where's the beef? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/5/26: The KOSPI gains +10% as traders trip over each other to buy Samsung and SK Hynix with both fists. Didn't you hear? AI is the next great thing. After 4 years and billions of dollars that have gone poof, where are all these great new things? Higher electric bills, longer waits for customer service as real people are let go, and loss of programming jobs are created by AI but this is not good. Isn't new technology supposed to bring an improvement to daily life? The first question Keystone will ask you is if your report was written by AI. If so, he will throw it in the garbage. Why would anyone take the time to read something that the person handing it to you did not think it was that important for him/her to write it?

Note Added 3/9/26: The KOSPI pukes -7% as Samsung and SK Hynix are thrown overboard.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side today at SPX 6866. The sideways choppy whipsaw slop continues this year and we are in March already. Bears won yesterday with weaker chips and copper. The bulls win today pulling semi's and the red metal back into their camp sending stocks higher. The SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 bull/bear lines in the sand tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; US Stock Market Is Topped-Out on Long-Term Monthly Basis

Honey, I'm home. Keystone called the long-term top in the stock market, on the monthly basis, a major top, a week ago on 2/21/26, after the several-month topping saga that was explained each step of the way. Here is the link to that SPX monthly chart from last week that explains the top call. Read that prior post that only takes a few minutes and then this post will make more sense for you. The new March candlestick begins for the monthly chart yesterday and that would serve as a confirmation for this major top.

The high for March thus far is 6901 yesterday. That is close enough for a matching price high but it was not needed to verify the negative divergence. The red February price candlestick shows the negative month after price printed the matching high to the prior months. Therefore, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d. Price chopped along for 5 months continually teasing the all-time record highs.

Following the black line down, since that is the last price high that was made, shows, and verifies, that ALL the chart indicators are neggie d (indicators are sloping down, as the red lines show, as price continues to make matching or higher highs). The SPX is completely out of gas and there are not even any more fumes left in the tank. The S&P 500 piece of trash jalopy is broken down on the side of the road as the entire bulled-up nation is at the stock market party waiting for more Fed and Trumpski booze to arrive. The Party Is Over, as Willie sings. Turn out the lights. They say all good things must end.

If you are a novice trader wet behind the ears, get out of the stock market before you get hurt. Keystone has been telling you this for the last couple months. Now it is time to sh*t or get off the pot. There is no more time. Anyone that stays in the stock market will lose a lot of money over the coming months and year or two. The slump may last several years.

The old-timer's watch the 10-month MA at 6692 as an early warning system. When this fails, it is a yellow caution light flashing with sirens going off. The 12-mth MA is at 6534 and this is the line in the sand when the bear market begins.

Note that price last touched the lower standard deviation band in 2022. The upper band started to be violated in late 2023. The collapse last April due to the Trumpski tariffs brought price lower but it did not test the lower band or the 50-mth MA at 5156. The stock market orgy ran price higher as traders tripped over each other to buy the dips each month after April.

Price needs to correct down to the middle band that is also the 20-mth MA at 6252 and the lower band at 5275, and rising, is also on the table. That will get everyone's attention especially all the analysts calling for SPX 8K and higher this year with less than 10 months remaining.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (price above the 10-mth MA above the 12-mth MA above the 20 above the 50) requiring a mean reversion downward.

Wall Street analysts, strategists and pundits proclaim that there is no AI bubble and this will not appear for another 1 to 3 years. Wrong. You just witnessed the blow-off top. The last 11 months off the April lows is the blow-off top of the artificial intelligence bubble.

AI has been around solidly for about 3 years and in early form for the last couple decades. One of the standard mantras for the last couple years is that AI will provide great drug discoveries. Okay chump, where are they? AI has been in play for 3 years and no one is announcing a huge breakthrough drug. All you hear are crickets. Pharmaceutical companies are not going to share and exchange proprietary drug data so AI would only be an in-house model. Well, where's all the big breakthroughs? There are none. It is business as usual. Do you believe all the AI hype?

Obviously, the play going forward, on the long-term monthly basis, say for the rest of this year perhaps into next year and perhaps far longer (multi-years), is on the short side. Stocks are expected to trail and trend lower for the next many months if not a few years.

The stock market prints the long-term top at 2/26/26 and two days later, on 2/28/26, King Donnie Trumpski declares war against Iran. Isn't that interesting? The orange head probably thinks the stock market is the least of his problems. He be wrong.

Humorously, are you standing there in your loin cloth ready to serve as the bag-holdin' sucka? Sucker by Jonas Brothers. That one dude sings so high he must have put his guitar capo on his nuts. He can sing in the boy's choir. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/7/26: SPX 6740.

IGV Software ETF Versus BTCUSD Bitcoin Versus OWL Blue Owl Daily Charts

The IGV software sector ETF (blue) and bitcoin (red) move in unison like Fred and Ginger. He's dancing for his dinner. No wonder people were thinner years ago. Nowadays, folks lay around eating junk food and tapping a keyboard with greasy fingers.

The blue (representing the software sector) and red lines (bitcoin) move in sync and the green line was added that is Blue Owl that is blamed for instigating nasty action in the private equity stocks that are crashing this year. Blue Owl peaked in the summertime and has been a piece of garbage ever since.

The larger purple box shows a divergence occurring in the price action. Software is moving flat and actually peaking in this box in September/October. Note that Blue Owl is getting tossed overboard, the green line goes down, and at the same time the red line moves up. The money from Blue Owl goes into bitcoin.

The second box same idea. The software spankdown is in progress at the end of last year into this year so the blue line drops like a rock. Bitcoin rises at the same time so those traders pulling money from software plays were sticking some of it into bitcoin figuring the selloff in the crypto currencies has run its course. Not so.

This year, bitcoin, software and private equity are in sync taking a ride together on the Highway to Hell. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

IGV Software Sector, CRWD CrowdStrike, CRM Salesforce, SNOW Snowflake, ADBE Adobe, DOCU DocuSign, and IBM Daily Charts; Software Stocks Crash Because of Fear that AI Will Eat Their Lunch

Software stocks are taking the pipe. IBM stuck its head in the oven yesterday. The IGV ETF represents the software sector and it crashes -35% in the last 17 weeks (4 months). Software is taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten to a pulp. Why? IGV was the nice old man handing out candy to everyone over the last few years and now he is beaten and rolled in the back alley. Why?

AI (artificial intelligence) will do the work of software. It is that simple. Software engineers and programmers yell, "Blasphemy!" Sure they do because they are the ones that will lose their jobs. The private equity arena is betting slapped silly along with the software sector due to AI drama. Do you want to provide loans to companies that are starting to look like dinosaurs and may be out of business in a few years?

The big software behemoths such as MSFT Microsoft, GOOGL Google, and ORCL Oracle may weather the storm but others such as CRWD CrowdStrike, CRM Salesforce, SNOW Snowflake, ADBE Adobe, DOCU DocuSign and IBM may have a tougher row to hoe.

CRWD crashes -39% in the last 14 weeks. It looks like the crowd did strike CrowdStrike. They should call it CrowdStrife. All of you dumb little twits listening to talking heads on television lost your shirts.

CRM crashes -35% in only 7 weeks after a triple top. Note that triple tops do exist. Idiots donning fleece vests, that display their embroidered tech company logo, had puffed-out their chests at Christmastime bragging that they own Salesforce one of the best companies positioned to take advantage of the AI revolution. Seven weeks later they are crying in their beer regretting that they ever got involved in the stock market now hoping that no one asks about their CRM investment. Salesforce is experiencing sales in force.

SNOW crashes -45% in 15 weeks taking a prize as one of the biggest pieces of software sh*t. The snowflakes piled up into a snowstorm and then a blizzard and now the SNOW stockholders are left out in the cold. Young folks get a bad rap about being snowflakes. There are always lazy ne'er-do-wells in all age groups but everyone always gets painted with the same brush. You will have to buck-up and prove everyone wrong, that's all. The snowflakes were snow-jobbed into buying SNOW and now they are snowed-in.

ADBE crashes -32% in only 41 days. The chimney is falling down and the roof is caving in, on that little adobe, er abode, close enough. Log Cabin in the Lane is a standard bluegrass song. Adobe was a darling of investment houses for a long time but the ADBE shareholders may start wearing barrels if the crash continues.

DOCU crashes -42% in only 30 days. Ouch. That is going to leave a mark. On the bright side, DocuSign will be able to sign its own death certificate. Mr Brightside by the Killers.

IBM crashes -31% in 17 days. The BM stands for bowel movement. That is appropriate since IBM's -13% crash yesterday is a bed-sh*tting of epic proportions the worst day in 25 years. Anthropic says its Claude Code agentic tool can modernize the COBOL systems stabbing straight at the heart of IBM. Claude is an interesting name selection that comes from Latin and is used in the French language. Pause for laughter. The literal meaning of claudus is "lame" and "limping." The idiots in charge did not think of checking the derivation of the name they pick for their fancy program. Anthropic may be lame and limping gong forward. It is a nation of morons, with chests puffed-out and chins held high, wearing fleece vests, everyone telling each other how smart they are.

There are many other software companies to watch including PLTR Palantir, NOW ServiceNow, INTU Intuit, FIG Figma and more. Everyone is excited about the AI revolution and what is coming. Be careful what you wish for. There is only one king in life. Rock 'n Roll is King. Come on ladies, get out on that dance floor and shake your money maker. YOLO. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:18 PM EST: The software stocks recover today and Anthropic proclaims that it is not a disrupter, no sirree, it is a collaborator. Anthropic does not want to horn-in on IBM and mess with the COBOL platform but instead work as a partner; same with all other companies. Anthropic saw the light and got religion once they saw stocks crashing around them with their company targeted as a disrupter and one of the reasons for the crash. Praise the Lord, I Saw the Light. 

Note Added 2/25/26 at 5:10 AM EST: UBS says private credit default rates are rising to 15% (from 13%; typically at the 3% to 6% range). The grim UBS forecast adds fuel to the AI disruption and fear talk. Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein proclaims, "All you need is the snowball to start going down the hill and it started. Blue Owl is right in the middle of that. I think we are in the super-early innings of the wheels coming off the car." Anthropic continues with damage control decreeing that they want to work with companies and not replace them. Anthropic continues using restrictions and safeguards (ethical guardrails) preventing autonomous weapons development (weapons that shoot automatically without human intervention a sick path ahead for humanity). The Pentagon tells Anthropic it is 'our way or the highway' wanting the safeguards to disappear. A $200 million US government contract hangs in the balance. Workday earnings are released last evening and WDAY is bludgeoned -9% in the premarket. Their suite of financial management applications are not viewed as sweet. Can AI do all this stuff? Workday has its work cut out for itself today. In the most important news about the AI story, with the luster coming off the AI rose, clients of SAP are questioning if the AI tools offered are worth the money. If they are questioning, it means the AI garbage at this stage is not worth it for companies. Maybe it is best to wait a year or two until better applications are provided but this thinking will be the death nail to the AI-associated stocks. There is lots of drama ahead. AI stands for "as if" as if AI will ever justify the billions upon billions spent already. All this AI garbage to make and doom scroll unlimited garbage short videos. Are you trapped in this sh*t life? Ignore AI and instead pick up a musical instrument. All Along the Watchtower. We can dig it Jimi. There are many here among us, that feel that life is but a joke.

Note Added 2/26/26 at 7:22 AM EST: NVIDIA, Salesforce and Snowflake report yearnings last evening. In the pre-market, NVDA +1.1%. CRM -3.7%. SNOW flat. IGV -0.3%.

Note Added 3/5/26: The dip-buyers love tech stocks and pile back into IGV at the bottom at 76.25 sending it higher to 87.62 with the jobs report on tap.

OWL Blue Owl, APO Apollo, TPG, and STEP StepStone Daily Charts Crash Due to Private Equity Blow-Up; BX Blackstone, KKR, CG Carlyle Group, and ARES Are Garbage, Too

Ka-boom. Private equity is blowing-up. Hit the deck! The private equity chickens (illiquid assets) are coming home to roost bringing their sick greedy diseases infecting all the barnyard critters at the Animal Farm; a contagion? Private equity companies are twisted-up into the artificial intelligence trade (data center loans, software loans, etc...) and some investors are realizing that they should have had a lawyer read the fine print. They swore that after signing up for that timeshare that they would never sign anything again until a lawyer looked at it. Oh well, it is time to bend over again.

Private equity follows different rules than other companies. Some investors now realize that they cannot pull all their money out of those investments with a phone call. You are lucky if your call is returned.

Blue Owl receives a black eye in the news everyday for the last couple weeks as it should be. It is a piece of crapola. Instead of OWL they should call it Ow because it is hurting the shareholders. OWL was already trending lower when it came into the end of last year when the bottom fell out. It peaked in December and has crashed -38% in 10 weeks, so far.

The next piece of private equity excrement is APO that peaked as the new year started and has crashed -26% in 7 weeks, so far. This Apollo rocket ride comes crashing down to Earth. Houston, we have a problem.

TPG peaks as the new year begins and crashes -39% in 7 weeks that is about a -6% drop per week for the last 7 weeks, so far.

Note that OWL peaked first and started the ball down hill while APO and TPG watched. Blue Owl is the canary in the private equity coal mine. Apollo and TPG then topped-out and started to stumble at the start of he new year. STEP watched the others drop but kept on trucking along in December into the new year. Investors still wanted to buy StepStone with both fists. The party continued into the new year but the stock then stepped off the cliff and those traders paid dearly for their bullishness.

STEP crashes -43% in only 5 weeks. StepStone basically lost half its value in a month, so far. StepStone is beaten like a red-headed step child. What about the other half? The private equity grenade explodes in the lunchroom of the credit risk department unfortunately destroying the free coffee machine. STEP was a stepping stone to Hades.

There are plenty of other pieces of garbage on the private equity trash heap. BX crashes -32% in the last 6 weeks. KKR crashes -37% in the last 10 weeks. CG crashes -27% in the last 6 weeks. ARES crashes -37% in 10 weeks. There are others such as Bain Capital, Thoma Bravo and Warburg Pincus. Treasury Secretary Bessent has a big problem on his plate, next to the broccoli, called private equity. Media outlets are going to want Bessent and King Donnie to comment on a potential credit crisis in the offing.

Remember, when companies offer high yields to attract investors, that is the spider telling the fly to come over and check out the new web. When OWL surfaced with problems a couple months ago, it was said that there may be other cockroaches. The kitchen light was turned on in the middle of the night and look at all the cockroaches running everywhere. La Cucaracha. Private equity down the tubes..... la, la, la..... This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/24/26 at 4:19 AM EST: European banks are soggy today. The European private equity firms are stinking up the joint. EQT crashes -26% so far this year. CVC Capital collapses -16% this year; Bridgepoint -16%. Other European equity firms include Hg, Nordic Capital, Permira, Ardian, Investcorp, Cinven, IK Partners, Naxicap Partners and Partners Group. How do red accounting numbers look to all of you? Can you say contagion? Or is it still on simmer not yet boiling?

Note Added 2/24/26 at 9:33 AM EST: DB downgrades OWL to 10 bucks. Thank you Captain Obvious. A timely downgrade after everyone already lost their money. Deutsche Bank is leading from behind.

Note Added 2/24/26 at 11:51 AM EST: Fitch reports and warns that private credit default-rates are on the rise. 

Note Added 2/25/26 at 5:20 AM EST: UBS says private credit default rates are rising to 15% (from 13%; typically at the 3% to 6% range). The grim UBS forecast adds fuel to the AI disruption and fear talk. Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein proclaims, "All you need is the snowball to start going down the hill and it started. Blue Owl is right in the middle of that. I think we are in the super-early innings of the wheels coming off the car." Workday earnings are released last evening and WDAY is bludgeoned -9% in the premarket. Their suite of financial management applications are not viewed as sweet. Can AI do all this stuff? Workday has its work cut out for itself today. In the most important news about the AI story, with the luster coming off the AI rose, clients of SAP are questioning if the AI tools offered are worth the money. If they are questioning, it means the AI garbage at this stage is not worth it for companies. Maybe it is best to wait a year or two until better applications are provided but this thinking will be the death nail to the AI-associated stocks. There is lots of drama ahead. AI stands for "as if" as if AI will ever justify the billions upon billions spent already. All this AI garbage to make and doom scroll unlimited garbage short videos. 

Note Added 3/3/26: BX drops -3% in the pre-market on news that its fund is getting hit with redemptions. Blackstone puffs its chest out and says there is plenty of dough to handle redemptions in fact they will allow more to occur to prove they are not worried. Meanwhile, the executives are under the conference room table in the fetal position. Blue Owl is getting blacklisted and blamed by everyone, including other private credit companies, for starting the AI and private credit negativity. OWL falls -4% in the pre-market to 10.29. Yesterday's low was 10.08.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side just before munchtime at $SPX 6828. Retail stocks, banksters, and software stocks are circling the drain. Bears will begin carnage with weaker copper and need CPER below 35.38. Bulls can stop the stock market selling and begin a relief rally with stronger retail stocks and need to push XRT above 87.68. One of them will flinch and either confirm the down direction, or set up another garbage chop move higher that is the hallmark of 2026 thus far. Choppy whipsaw slop.

Keybot the Quant

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Daily and Weekly Charts; Daily Timeframe Wants a Pullback This Week but Weekly Timeframe Will Want Additional Highs

Oil receives its positive divergence upswing as Keystone forecasted and called the bottom in December. Here is that chart and technical analysis where the oil shorts were told that they will soil their shorts.

Well, what now? What now, brown cow? Decades ago, people used to say 'how now brown cow' to practice proper speech. Some cowpunk is in order. Prison Bound. So oil rallies when everyone said it would go down. What else is new? All the idiots had to do is look at a chart. It is a tricky time now for oil since King Donnie has his itchy finger on the Tomahawk button ready to start war in Iran. Trumpski bragged that he had completely destroyed the Iran nuclear program with the previous bombs but that was a lie because now he wants a nuclear deal. Bomb Iran. Everybody sing.

On the weekly chart, the green lines show the falling wedge, a bullish pattern, the positive divergence, and oversold stochastics all saying that the bottom was in for oil on the weekly basis as per the previous chart and analysis. It was. Price tagged the lower standard deviation band so the middle band at 60 was on the table and the upper band at 65.40 and both were tagged.

As oil price received the possie d rocket launch, no doubt fueled in part by some scorched shorts that wanted to cover at any price, the chart indicators remain long and strong, sans the stochastics and RSI. The RSI, however, will likely print a higher high since it has some momo. Thus, you are looking for a top to form on the weekly basis but you can see the chart indicators have gas in the tank to take price higher, on the weekly basis, even if it pulls back for a week or two, so no top yet on the weekly basis.

The daily chart becomes pertinent to this discussion. You can see the possie d bottom on the daily chart making that bottom call in December easy. Note how the RSI was playing a little game, turning possie d, but only on a couple-day basis to match the other indicators. The RSI from early October was higher than the December bottom so that is not positive divergence; it is weak and bleak. But alas, price made another low and on that day, the RSI went possie d. This drama forecasts that after the possie d rocket launch occurs, price should slump over and come down again but it should not print a matching bottom since all the indicators were possie d and wanted price to rise, and this plays out, with price going soggy to begin the year, coming way down skeptical about the RSI, but then taking off higher again and the bull run was on.

Price violated the lower band on the daily chart so a trip to the middle band at 64 was on the table, and also the upper band at 66.85, and both occur. The red lines on the daily chart show the negative divergence that formed and wants to see a spankdown in the daily time frame. Again, this is tricky business because their is an orange head in the mix that may start WW III at anytime, maybe today on Washington's Birthday. The daily chart is ready to receive a neggie d spankdown. 

Thus, let's marry the two time frames since trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension and not space. Keystone is the self-proclaimed Father of Divergence Trading. The daily chart is ready to send oil lower and the neggie d on the stochastics on the weekly chart, and the overbot condition, will conspire with the daily chart to make that happen over the coming days. So soggy oil is on tap for the week ahead unless King Donnie starts a war.

But the weekly chart indicators, such as the MACD, remain long and strong wanting higher highs in price on the weekly basis. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was told not to come to the Washington's Birthday end of winter gala at the Italian-American Club, the sogginess on the daily chart will play out over the coming days or week or two, but price will rise again to new highs to satisfy the long and strong indicators on the weekly chart.

The upside in price, however, may be limited going forward, since the 67-ish is strong resistance (yellow line). The 68 is easily doable say a couple weeks out, and that would be an important level for oil shorts to hold. If oil rises above 68, according to Keystone's 80/20 Rule, price will likely seek 72. For now, let's keep the price in check and topping out at 68-ish in a couple-three weeks.

Thus, bringing the chessboard together, oil should slip in the days ahead due to the negative divergence on the daily chart. This downside will be limited to a few days since the weekly chart remains long and strong. Price will come back up and perhaps top out at 68-ish, say, the second week of March as a target. But you do not have to guess. Simply watch the weekly chart and wait for it to set up completely with neggie d across all indicators, and then you can call the exact top in oil on the weekly basis.

Keystone is not playing oil long or short right now, instead simply watching it. There is a lot of drama right now with Trumpski in play so it seems best to simply wait a week or two and see how the weekly chart sets up and perhaps opens a nice window to put on a short. This week will likely also determine if Donnie boy will press the Tomahawk buttons or if he will instead slunk away under the guise that he made a great deal, the best deal in history, that will really not be much of anything. Hopefully, his greasy fingers from eating McDonalds French fries will not slip and accidentally press the Tomahawk button. How to throw a tomahawk. Johnny knew he had the perfect set-up. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:45 PM EST: WTIC oil drops -1.1% to 65.74. Commodities traders are paying attention to the Trumpski tariff chaos and the potential Iran military strike. Iran may be willing to call King Donnie's bluff. Iranian radicals probably say go ahead and drop bombs and shoot missiles that may start WW III. They probably hope the Middle East will explode into war and chaos. The US military bases will be targets. Do not forget that there is no love lost between the Shia (Shiite) and Sunni Arabs; their 1400 years of hate endures each claiming to be the rightful heir to Islam religion after Muhammed in the 7th century. It is why the ME is such a complicated place. Iran is Shiite and the Saudi's are Sunni. All radical Islamists are Muslims but not all Muslims are radical Islamists. The radical Islamists want Sharia law (that is in conflict with the US Constitution) and these fundamentalists do not want Jews to exist.

Note Added Monday, 2/23/26, at 1:50 PM EST: WTIC oil is at 66.14 as the turmoil in Iran remains front and center for the oil market. King Donnie may have backed himself into a corner and may do something stupid when he tries to not look weak.

Note Added 2/24/26, at 11:24 AM EST: WTIC oil is at 66.20. An Iran decision should come any day ahead. King Donnie is preparing for his State of the Onion speech this evening. Who is going to waste a couple hours and more of their life to listen to the dribble?.

Note Added 2/25/26, at 6:08 AM EST: WTIC oil is at 65.93.

Note Added 2/26/26, at 4:32 AM EST: WTIC oil is at 64.99 a 64-handle.

Note Added 2/26/26, at 7:20 AM EST: WTIC oil is at 64.06 a hair away from a 63-handle. King Donnie appears to not want to go to war so oil retreats. Trumpski is trying to kick away his line in the sand while no one is looking. He told Iranians help is on the way as if it would be immediate. Yeah, sure buddy. The orange head is not a guy to take on his word. Now, Iranians know that. If Donnie starts a war in the Middle East, oil prices will jump higher, that means gasoline prices jump higher, that means the loin cloth that Trumpski was using to cover himself and allow him to say that he brought US prices lower, would be pulled away. No one wants to view that sight. US gasoline prices are up +15% since Christmas due to oil rising because of the Iran drama. To put in perspective, if it costs you $50 bucks to fill up your car's gas tank during the holidays, it will now cost you $58 bucks and potentially a lot more in the weeks ahead. Happy New Year.

Note Added 2/26/26, at 7:24 AM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. WTIC oil drops to 63.81 and for now is sticking around the 64-handle. King Donnie is viewed as a paper tiger so oil slumps lower. Iran-US talks are on tap today. Trumpski is looking for an escape ramp. Donnie, sonny, it is hard to negotiate with people that do not care if they die.

Note Added 3/3/26 at 4:00 AM EST: King Donnie wages war against Iran starting 2/28/26 killing radical Islamist's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (I'madinnerjacket). Oil tags 75. Oil pulled back to 63 a couple days ago but once the bombs started dropping on Iran, oil started higher, and continues higher. 76-handle next?.

Note Added 3/3/26 at 5:30 AM EST: Oil tags 76.

Note Added 3/3/26 at 5:57 AM EST: WTIC oil tags 77+. Brent oil tags 85. Did Donnie Trumpski just start WW III?

Note Added 3/5/26: Oil runs higher to 81 as angst over Trump's War against Iran increases.

Note Added 3/6/26 at 6:00 AM EST: Wow. WTIC oil is over 84 on its way to 85 Brent oil is almost at 88. The Strait of Hormuz is a big worry as the Iran War escalates.

Note Added 3/6/26 at 6:40 AM EST: WTIC oil is over 85. 

Note Added 3/6/26 at 7:06 AM EST: WTIC oil is over 86 and Brent oil is over 89. In quick order, WTIC oil tags 88 and Brent oil hits 90.

Note Added 3/6/26 at 1:00 PM EST: WTIC oil is over 92 and Brent is at 94. The wheels just fell off the oil bus. King Donnie's war in Iran sends oil prices to the moon soon to be coming to a gasoline pump near you. 

Note Added 3/7/26: That was a historic week for oil. WTIC oil pops to 92.61 and sits at 91.27. Brent oil prints a high at 94.55 and sits at 92.87. The Iran War this weekend dictates the path ahead for oil.