SOX Semiconductors Daily Chart; Textbook Head and Shoulders (H&S) So Far; Gap Fills

Whoopsies daisies. It looks like the CHIPS have skidded out on the highway. Ponch! Ponch! The semiconductors have been the most popular girl at the dance but her fame is fleeting after it is discovered that she has two left feet. The chips move south after creating a textbook H&S pattern, at least so far.

The head is at 14630 and neck at 12200 so that is 2430 difference. Take that away from 12200 and you get 9770 as the downside target if the neckline fails. SOX is making that decision right now. It is bounce, or die, time.

Price comes down and fills that orange gap as it decides what to do. There are numerous other orange gaps that need filled down below so many that it looks like Swiss cheese. Did you know they started to put fake holes in the Swiss cheese? Next time you go to the deli counter, grab some Swiss and you will see the holes are perfect circles cut by a die-cutter blade. It probably takes too long to allow the cheese to form the holes naturally so do it the phony-baloney way. No one notices.

The 12200 support is key since it has held for a couple months and served as resistance in May. Will the chips fail right here and allow the H&S to play out and begin the popping of the AI bubble, or, will price simply bounce from here and say 'never mind' like Emily Latella? Gilda was great; she got screwed in life.

The entire fate of artificial intelligence going forward hinges on the chart above. Will it live, or die? The price drops to 12023, so this is a key number, and now rebounds to 12280 and more as the bulls try to pump the chips and stay out of trouble. Keystone is short the chips but the trade is flat after the choppy slop. State of Mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: The battle at the 12200 neckline rages on. That 12023 was the LOD yesterday and price recovered to 12418, then stumbled into the closing bell at 12399.

SPCX SpaceX 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence

It is futile to trade SpaceX technically since it is still an infant. SPCX has been available for 21 trading days so the weekly charts got nothing unless you want to look at a 6-week MA. Same-o for the daily chart. If you bring that up, you see the IPO price at 135 and the stock opened at 150. It popped above 225 as the biggest fool bot with both fists and is now wearing a barrel.

There is a 20-day MA at 161.40 that started over the last couple days (because it is now 21 days old). Price is below the 20-day so that is a bearish vibe. The RSI is flattish on the daily chart but slips slightly lower losing the 50% level slipping into bear territory. The stochastics, however, are oversold, with nowhere to go but up in the daily time frame. Money flow is also positively diverged on the daily chart agreeable to a move higher from here on the daily basis. A lower standard deviation band number is 126, again, all this data is fresh and you cannot read a lot into it since the stock is so young, so price may want to try and tag that 126 before a sustainable run higher on the daily basis occurs.

All that mumbo-jumbo brings us to the 2-hour chart above that finally has some technical aspects to assess. The blue lines show the IPO price at 135 and the opening price at 150. The 150 was held through Friday, July 10th, and then the bottom fell out. There must have been a backroom deal with market makers and bankers to maintain the 150 price until 7/10/26. Maybe they also have an agreement to hold the 135 for a certain amount of time?

Regardless, SPCX falls to 136 only a buck above its IPO price not exactly the ringing endorsement of the future that many had hoped for but again, it is an infant in the stock market and it has to learn to crawl before it can walk.

The 2-hour chart is a happy set-up for SpaceX. The green lines show price making the lower low while all the chart indicators are sloping higher, positive divergence, so she is loaded up with fuel and ready for blast-off in the 2-hour time frame (the day-traders and swing traders playground). Price also violated the lower band so a move to the middle band at 145 is on the table. Price should bounce in this time frame and perhaps seek a back kiss of the 150 since that did not yet occur.

The daily chart does not have enough technicals but the happy stochastics and money flow will join the happy times above and send SPCX higher for a couple-few days. Guessing at how the daily chart will develop, however, there is likely still a bit of weakness perhaps to touch the 126 or at least test the 135 price to see if the market makers are supporting it there. Guessing, since there are no technicals, price may want to bump around 126-135 after the couple days of happiness shown above. That may place the bottom in the daily time frame maybe later this week or early next week and begin a multi-day rally that likely takes it back above 150.

What does all this mean? Probably a bounce now in the 2-hour time frame for a day or two then roll over again perhaps down to 126-135 for a few days and that would be a bottom in the daily time frame where price would run higher again from there with a multi-day rally probably above 150 and more. It can only be day-traded now from a technical perspective. Keystone is not in it long or short and probably will not play it. It is likely a good play now for a long but take the profits later today or tomorrow or before the weekend.

The stock is probably worth about $65 so even at its current price it is probably too expensive but hype and crowd behavior can easily send price far higher. The sap and bagholding fool at 225 hopes so. The humanoid talk is comical. Who needs a $30K garbage robot to fold your laundry? It is laughable. Americans have tiny homes and zero in their bank accounts so a nonsense robot like that is a joke. The humanoid could only operate in a large wide open mansion performing stupid duties; it would probably be more of a novelty piece. And electricity and water does not mix; that is why they are not showing the humanoid washing the dishes or watering the garden. Maybe the robot can be trained to wipe your *ss. That' funny.

The reason Musk and SpaceX is into the humanoids is not for us to use but rather for space exploration and military applications. It is surprising that no one talks about the obvious. The humanoids are being refined because you can load up a couple dozen in a space ship and fire them off to the moon or Mars. They can walk around and explore planets and feed the data back to Earth. There would be leaps and bounds in technology quickly instead of waiting for another astronaut to collect a rock and bring it back for analysis. In addition, humanoids and drones will fight the future wars on Earth; the drones are now. Be there or be square.

The satellites and Starlink are the bread and butter for SpaceX but it will be interesting as the space junk fills the black skies above Earth. Linda Perry is a helluva talent and great songwriter. Here is Spaceman from years ago. If you were standing in front of her, the resonance from her voice would knock you over; so powerful for such a small lady. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: SpaceX was receiving lots of attention yesterday as traders and the media watched the price action at the 135 IPO price that was arbitrarily set when the stock went to market. Bloop. Price drops to 132 but closes at the 135. The market makers probably let it go to see if there was support but it did not appear so and then the pump back to 135 occurs. Nothing has changed. The positive divergence on the 2-hour has SPCX fueled up and ready to fly high. You still have to wait for technicals to appear on the daily chart to get a better bearing but the 2-hour wants price to rally for a day or two.

GTX Commodities Daily Chart Explains Trumpflation

The story of Trumpflation is a twisted tale. King Donnie Chumpski has done nothing to lower prices for common Americans. Toss that campaign promise in the trash with the others. GTX and CRB charts are the same. Both tickers are made up of many commodities, including oil, and are a representation of goods inflation. Of course, when oil prices rise, you feel it at the gasoline pump and those higher fuel costs increase prices across the board.

Sleepy Joe Biden was a mess of a president but what can you expect from a man with early onset of dementia, and Alzheimer's on the side, that spent each day eating chocolate pudding and looking for his hat. Inflation was bumping higher as Trump was elected in November 2024 and the path of higher inflation continued into early 2025. A pullback occurs in goods inflation as prices ebb and flow with the seasons and other factors. Donnie Chump is quick to pounce on the good news and claims credit for lowering inflation within a few months of his presidency. That joy did not last long.

Trumpski then imposed tariffs on other countries starting April 2025 friend or foe. It was a mechanism that guaranteed that the attention, and cameras, would be pointed at his orange face every day forward; it was a narcissist's dream. Of course, tariffs increase inflation as the orange dolt proclaims that tariffs will decrease inflation. He is not a very smart man, in fact, he is a low IQ individual that is driven by his lust for daily attention and adoration.

At the end of February, over 4 months ago, King Donnie starts the Iran War an unmitigated mess. Oil prices catapult above $100 per barrel sending gasoline and other prices higher crushing the low-income family that already cannot pay the monthly bills. You can see in the chart that goods inflation retreated during late May and June, as oil price came back down with Donnie promising an end to his war, but that slight relief in higher prices has now gone up in a puff of smoke. Probably pot smoke these days. 

Donnie Chump re-escalates the Iran War so oil and other prices are on the rise again. King Donnie is as equally incompetent as Sleepy Joe Biden. Inflation has no effect on you when you are rich; you always buy what you want to buy.

The 30 million Americans at the top, that raped the US financial system for all it is worth starting with Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980's, are asking why is everyone so glum? These privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, that live in the McMansions, control the nation and the other 300 million folks are the peons at the bottom of the food chain that now view the American Dream as the American Joke. The middle class was gutted over the last six decades so the wealthy could have 10 homes, 32 cars, a $40,000 refrigerator, and send their kids to the best schools and colleges to perpetuate the class separation, and on top of all that complain daily about the taxes they pay. The Trumpflation saga is now added on top of that pig slop. Many common Americans cancel their drive and vacation to Atlantic City and the East Coast this year because of the debilitating Trumpflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:17 PM EST: The CPI inflation data is released this morning and the headline number is much tamer than expected at 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. This will make the Fed's job easier since they can stay on hold. They do not want to cut since employment remains steady and buoyant although the housing sector remains challenged. The Fed can delay a hike since inflation is no biggie as the happy data shows. Right? Wrong. The news is groovy for this data set but it represents that period in the chart above at the end of May and June with oil prices dropping and inflation improving, just as the data shows. However, the same data that will be released next month, only about 30 days away, will reflect the upward spike in the maroon circle so everyone will be nervous about rising inflation again. GTX jumps higher to 5320 today so far. You can check CRB later since it is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. Despite the happy data today, you can smell a faint and foul odor of persistent inflation. The jukes and jives with data from one month to the next increases the market drama.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/15/26, at 6:17 AM EST: Fed Chairman Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill yesterday and today and he was baited to say inflation is tamed based on the CPI data. Warsh does not take the bait, since he is looking at charts like the GTX above, and says the inflation mission is not accomplished because the data will likely float higher again for next month. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: GTX is at 5288 trading above 5300 intraday the last couple days.

AAPL Apple Daily and Weekly Charts Remain Rotten with Negative Divergence Despite All-Time Record High at 323 Palindrome

Apple squeezes out a new all-time record high at the 323 palindrome but it remains a piece of excrement. Recent happy talk and now a lawsuit against OpenAI has got some sucka's and bagholders in a buying mood again. The daily and weekly charts are in full negative divergence across all indicators so she is cooked in the daily and weekly time frames.

Price may jog for a couple days, especially with Fed drama on tap, but AAPL should receive its neggie d spankdown at any time forward in both the daily and weekly time frames. It is set up for a multi-week pullback so as it drops, you can reference the monthly chart and see if the MACD goes neggie d to identify the top as a long-term multi-month even, multi-year, top. Even if it is not THE top now, it will be within a couple months. After the multiple weeks of downside, AAPL may come up again for a few weeks to seal the deal on the monthly so that long-term top is either now or late August/September (to give a little more time for the MACD on the monthly to go neggie d).

The hype is out of hand today with television analysts yelling buy, buy, buy! Buy this shiny red apple that is rotten on the inside. No charge for the worm. Did you puff out your chest today and buy Apple stock?

Timmy Trader bot 4 big blocks of AAPL stock on the long side and brags to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant, in the breakroom, that he is a better trader than Jesse Livermore. Emily scoffs, laughing at the hapless idiot. Timmy Trader asks Emily why she will not go out with him. Emily flicks her hand as she leaves the breakroom laughing proclaiming that she would never date a man that did not respect neggie d. Timmy is left alone holding a cup of lukewarm coffee wondering what this neggie d and possie d stuff is?

It will be fun to watch going forward. Note today's candlestick with the long upper shadow. That tells you it was a bull versus bear battle all day long and in the end the bears won. Comically, AAPL prints a new all-time record high but the bears won the day. If you own Apple, take the money and run, otherwise, you will be known as Sapple. Keystone is not long or short AAPL and has not played it in a while. If he does trade AAPL going forward, it would be on the short side. The Apple is rotten but the Gin Blossoms are groovin' at a backyard concert gig. Hey Jealousy. Suddenly, all the neighbors want to be friends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: There is lots of happy Apple talk over the last couple days. Apple wants a bigger chunk of the AI pie. Yesterday, is a +4% orgy rally to a new all-time closing high at 328. The orgy pump should last a day or few but the daily chart would simply reset with neggie d again. The weekly chart remains negative so keep an eye on that. The coming days will likely show that the buyers are not as enthusiastic as it appears with yesterday's party.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Whipsawing Back to the Long Side

Keytone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side today at SPX 7534 but humorously, wants to already flip back to the short side. The market action is crazy this week. Watch copper and utilities. The flip-flops and mis-directions make you Dizzy like Tommy Roe. Going around in circles all the time.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7451. The quant, however, already wants to whipsaw back to the long side. Utes, chips and retail stocks are key. It may be an interesting morning ahead.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Diamond Pattern; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

Here is an update for the SPX diamond pattern that was posted a few charts back. Price came up to test the top rail, and punched up through, however, the red lines show the higher highs in price but all the indicators are negatively diverged. The orange circle highlights the MACD line that is neggie d because it is flat but that sneaky thing probably wants another jog move before throwing off firm negative divergence.

For this chart, the candlesticks print at the opening bell at 9:30 AM EST, then at 10 AM, then at 12 PM (noon), then at 2 PM; 4 candles per day. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was disinvited to the Taylor Swift wedding, a down-up jog move would place the top at 10 AM tomorrow if the top is not in already as the chart above shows. You simply have to watch the MACD to make sure it remains neggie d, this should be known at 10 AM, and if not, surely by noon, the chart will likely be committed to a neggie d spankdown with prices pulling back.

Then the question will be if price simply back kisses the top rail of the diamond pattern and then bounces and takes off higher like a rocket, or, will price fall back into the diamond pattern and then potentially fall out the bottom rail of the diamond pattern. Tomorrow should be a top in the 2-hour time frame and we shall see what the bears got. Keybot the Quant algorithm is long but will be looking to go short if copper is weak. Shine On You Crazy Diamond. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/8/26, at 4:52 AM EST: The SPX receives the start of the neggie d spankdown in the 2-hour time frame. Price falls to the top rail of the diamond at 7503. The SPX hesitates since it must make a bounce or die decision from here. King Donnie Trumpski retaliates against Iran for hitting the ships yesterday and from the NATO summit proclaims that the ceasefire is over and he calls the Iranian government (IRGC) "scum." Oil jumps higher and European stocks and US futures collapse. S&P futures are down -63 points and WTIC oil is at 74.67 and Brent crude at 78.45. WTIC crude tapped 67, the price at the start of the Iran War, a couple days ago but now explodes higher towards 75. US gasoline prices and overall inflation will float higher creating problems for King Donnie into the mid-term elections on November 3rd, less than 4 months away. WTIC crude tags 75 and Brent is about to hit 79. Donnie Trumpy loves to put on a show. Global markets are shell-shocked and digesting Donnie's latest tantrum.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: The SPX pulls back to the top rail of the triangle and bounces finishing the week strong threatening to break out to all-time record highs again. The diamond pattern may resolve to the upside if price begins running above 7600 and higher. It is a very sloppy finish to the diamond pattern that may fade into the background and become nullified as sideways chop suey continues. The buying volume on Thursday and Friday is pitiful. There are a lot of Joe Sixpack's tripping over each other to buy any dip as the institutional money slips out the back door. The stock market is erratic and unstable so let it ride out the drama. The Iran War appears to be escalating again with the radical Islamists decreeing the Strait of Hormuz closed. Donnie screwed the pooch starting the war and is in over his orange head. Trumpski is dangling resorts, casinos, beaches and girls in bikinis to the radical Islamists that are religious fanatics and would be honored to die for Allah. How does the so-called deal-maker make a deal with someone he does not understand? Donnie is used to dealing with Western crony capitalists that freely and willingly sell their souls for money or power. In Iran, however, religious fanaticism, not crony capitalism greed, drives their actions. Drones are the future and may eventually destroy everything on Earth. Resistance is futile. Iran knows they can control the strait forever with their cheap drones fitted with warheads. It can be hopeless to defend against swarms of drones. Remember, when Donnie started the war at the end of February, the first question Keystone asked was 'how many drones does Iran have because that dictates how long the war will last'. The answer is it is a new forever war. A diplomatic solution appears unattainable so the Iranian regime would have to be replaced with a government that agrees to keep the Hormuz waterway open. Until that happens, the turmoil and Middle East drama will continue and fester. Trump's first-term legacy was a whining, crybaby, sore-loser. King Crybaby. Donnie's second term legacy may be the president that forever changed navigation through international waterways creating tollways and forbidden zones making the world a far more dangerous place. Donnie has to fix the mess he created in Iran, otherwise, that new negative legacy awaits. Look for King Donnie to proclaim some news to try and goose markets or keep oil prices down this afternoon before the futures open for trading at 6 PM EST.

CAT Caterpillar Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Tweezer Top; Price Extended; Michael Burry Short

CAT is in the news since Michael Burry wants to play it on the short side going forward. That may be a touch early for a short call on the weekly basis. Negative divergence is developing as the red lines show and the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow all want price to receive a neggie d spankdown. However, the MACD line remains long and strong with fuel in the tank to still take price higher. Also, that money flow is getting goosed and may create near-term buying interest.

Caterpillar is long in the tooth on the weekly basis. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The RSI, stochastics, money flow are overbot agreeable toa  pullback on the weekly basis. The MACD is in nosebleed territory so it can reverse at will from here and lock in the chart negativity. The Tweezer Top (blue circle) is identifying a top but it would be nicer if the MACD was neggie d.

She may jog for a couple weeks, down in price for a week then back up for a week around these highs and higher, and then the MACD will be neggie d to lock in the top.

Why the orgy with Caterpillar a stodgy old company that makes huge machinery ran by guys in flannel shirts that spit tobacco? AI, what else? Artificial intelligence has its hand in every pie. The data centers are needed for the AI revolution that will produce more stupid videos and answer your lazy questions. What is the first thing that happens when building anything including roads and bridges? A hole is dug in the ground and you need CAT machinery for all that work. Earth-movers will grade a lot of acreage so the rain water flows a certain way. Retention ponds are needed. Temporary gravel roads are needed as construction crews lay foundations and begin erecting the buildings.

That is the Captain Obvious reason for traders buying CAT with both fists over the last year. But there is a second reason. Caterpillar and Cummins provide huge diesel and natty gas generators and other equipment that data centers will need. Everyone talks about the power needed. I need more power, Scotty! Captain, I'm giving her all she got! No one thinks about the back-up power. If power goes out in a storm or for other reasons, the show must go on so the data centers will probably have back-up diesel or natural gas generators. These large generator skid units are about half the size of a ranch home (think big equipment not a little generator you see in Home Depot).

So CAT jumps higher with traders tripping over each other to buy shares. Some folks are late to the party, that always happens, so they may create some sideways chop until the above chart is in full neggie d for the top.

The CAT daily chart just topped out with neggie d on the daily basis taking the -7% beating today. There would be more downside expected for a few days or week or so. The monthly chart is ugly in negative divergence across all indicators except for the MACD but that is in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down. There may be a month of choppy sideways slop ahead with CAT. The Burry short call looks good for going through the rest of the year into 2027 but it may still take a month of slop at the elevated levels before she lets loose to the downside.

If you rode CAT higher and have profits, take them and move on. CAT is a short the rallies play going forward for the rest of the year but it may be better to enter short in a couple weeks or a month. Keystone is not in CAT long or short but will consider playing it short as the year progresses. Come on, honey, show us that Stray Cat Strut. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: CAT pukes almost -3% on Friday dropping to 948 but rebounding to 963 sitting on the 20-day MA S/R at 963. Price will bounce or die from here. Keystone should have waited one day before posting the chart above since now it is in full negative divergence on the weekly basis. The MACD is sloping down as the Tweezer Top printed. Thus, CAT should tail lower for a few weeks, but then will rebound, probably not to the Tweezer Top highs but maybe to 1000, and that will provide the monthly chart time to lock in its negativity. July should be a topping-out month for Caterpillar and then the bad stuff happens after that into the end of the year.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: CAT is at 952 down -11% off the top 8 trading days ago.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: CAT 914.

NKE Nike Weekly Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence

In the sea of garbage charts these days, like Scamazon and Sapple, it appeared hopeless to find any ticker on the long side worth a look. Nike receives a bunch of negative publicity again after results were okay. Traders and investors have beaten this sneaker maker to a pulp. Nike was ridden hard and put away wet. Nike is shunned by everyone. It is Branded! Step forward Nike.

As typically happens, when you look at the charts, the real story is far different from the media diatribe. NKE is ready to rock 'n roll. It is set up with positive divergence so it is on the launch pad and all fueled up to explode higher in the weekly time frame. Even better, Nike is possie d across all indicators in the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Wow. That is really something. Nike has been bludgeoned badly in recent years but the worst is over and this stock is going to be one of the handful of winners from here as the year plays out. The falling green wedge is a bullish pattern typically from where stocks launch higher.

For anyone looking for a long to buy, buy NKE. There will probably be a bunch of folks running into buy it tomorrow and next week so do not dilly-daddly. It is fueled up and the fuse is already lit. She is going to fly. Since the broad stock market should pullback with a serious downdraft going forward, NKE may endure some more pain as investors beat the dead horse one more time. That will be great opportunities to buy. Choose your spots going forward but you can buy the dips on this one. Keystone does not own NKE long or short but will probably buy some long after a bit more time is given to see how the broad stock market flushes lower. Ugly Nike, the girl that no one wanted, that worked at the shoe store in the mall over the last few years, is now the most popular girl at the mall. Young folks do not remember malls. Complicated. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: NKE rallies over +8% last week starting to receive the possie d rocket launch on the weekly basis. The Nike daily chart shows price on an island below 46-ish. There is a gap big enough for a blimp to fly through at 46-50. Thus, price likely has more juice in the daily time frame to snag 46. From there it has to make a bounce or die decision and an island reversal pattern would be on the table for a gap-up from 46 to 50. Otherwise, price will likely slowly travel higher and fill the 46-50 gap. The charts say a multi-week rally in Nike has just started and price would be expected to travel higher to 50 or more once traders see that it has bottomed. The monthly chart remains possie d, although the MACD makes an equal low, so NKE is a very attractive long in a stock market that displays nothing but sh*t and garbage as a historical top occurs.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: NKE is at 44 remaining in the choppy sideways slop at 41-46 since April but the weekly chart continues looking bueno for multiple weeks of upside ahead. Put on your running shoes.

AMZN Amazon Monthly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Scamazon Receives the Neggie D Spankdown and Start of a Multi-Month Drawdown

Are you a bag holding sucka in Scamazon? There were a couple of idiots on television today telling folks to buy AMZN with both hands. That's funny. Amazon is cooked, crispy fried, on a long-term multi-month basis. Stick a fork in it. Jeff Bezos knew when to exit stage left. Every investment house and money manager owns funds with Amazon as part of the make up, or recommends that investors keep AMZN in their portfolios. Suckers. It's funny.

The chart above is a POS. What is so hard to understand? Are you blind? You look but you do not see. Let's take a look at the mess. The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern and the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price teeters on the lower rail support of the rising wedge.

Most importantly, the chart is in full negative divergence across all chart indicators. As price made new highs, on the monthly basis, the indicators are now all sloping lower and out of gas unable to take price to new highs again. AMZN receives the initial neggie d spankdown off the top but she has a long ways down to go. The RSI and stochastics are coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback.

The ADX pink boxes show that the last strong trend was higher but it petered out in 2022 as the COVID-19 pandemic came to an end. As Amazon price then recovered and moved higher, the ADX tried to register it as a strong trend but alas, it petered out and all the record highs up in this nosebleed territory are hype and fluff. People are just buying Amazon stock just because it is Amazon. The long players that would buy then sell, then buy again, always looking for the bigger fool, are now looking around realizing no one wants to buy anymore, and accepting that they are the bigger fool left holding the bag.

The Aroon green line shows that most every bull still believes AMZN will go up forever. That is no surprise. They are big bulls for Amazon stock and fanboys. The funny thing is the red line shows that most all the bears also believe that Amazon stock will go up forever.  Everyone is on one side of the boat. The bears have given up on shorting it. You know what happens next and the neggie d spankdown and multi-month pullback has already started.

The stock did a round trip during the COVID-19 pandemic jumping from one hundo up to 180 then coming back down to one hundo as the pandemic ended and the covid endemic phase began (covid behaves like the regular flu now). The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 227 is on the table also the lower band at 184, both rising sharply.

Price is/was extended above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The blue starts show the prior tops where price was extended too far above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200. Those pullbacks were 37 points, 100 points, 50 points, 60 points and 64 points. Thus, we can get mathy with this. Mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo, a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the July 4th party got lost in the mail. Let's say the top is 275 so taking away the smallest pullback at 37 would be a 238 downside target not too far from here. Taking the biggest mean reversion pull back at one hundo points, that would target 175 as the destination over the coming months. If you average the pullbacks, you get 62 points as the average mean reversion so that would target 213.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. If price came down to 220-ish, that opens the door wide to get to 180. The first test is the 12-mth MA at 236. If a stock or index falls below its 12-mth MA it can be considered to be falling into a cyclical bear market.

Amazon is a POS. That is why Bezos ditched it. He milked it for all it was worth and he git while the gittin' was good. Call your money manager and tell them to get you out of Scamazon stock. They will tell you that you are in for the long term. Tell them the ole Wall Street adage that "in the long term you will be dead."

AMZN should continue lower on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year and into 2027. It is reasonable to expect a pullback to the 180-200 area and then it can be reassessed to see how far down she will really go. Keystone is not long or short AMZN and has not played it in a couple years or more. Get out of Scamazon and save yourself while you are able.

On the wekly chart, it receives a neggie d spankdown for the last 5 weeks and is hesitating at the 20 and 50-wk MA's at 231-238. Real trouble begins if this fails. The indicators are agreeable to the sideways hesitation but the MACD remains weak and bleak wanting to see further lows in price on the weekly basis that means the 231 may get tested over the next couple weeks.

On the daily chart, you can see the positive divergence bouncing the stock price now on the daily basis. This may continue a few days. The 50-day MA resistance is at 255. So the daily chart says up, the weekly chart is sideways favoring a downward bias, and the monthly chart is gonzo and has started a multi-month pullback. Of course there will be fits and starts but Scamazon will likely meander lower from now into 2027. That will surprise a lot of people especially those that keep saying buy, buy, buy over the last couple months. They are the bagholders.

Amazon and Apple monthly charts are similar They are receiving the short-term boost in the daily time frame but the long-term charts are challenged. AMZN's monthly chart is cooked as explained above but AAPL is trying to squeeze one last drop out before it begins its long multi-month descent for the remainder of the year into 2027. Plan accordingly. Keystone is not in AAPL long or short either. Amazon women are big and beautiful but California Girls are special. Lovely ladies from the 80's and 90's. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: Scamazon floats higher to 243. If you look at the daily chart, you can see long upper shadows on the price candlesticks that shows that bulls and bears battle and the bears are winning the fight despite price floating higher. The 200-day MA at 233 is key support. The daily chart is expecting a bit more upside in price for a day or few. The weekly chart is chopping sideways. The monthly chart is cooked, totally burnt. The 20-wk MA is 238 and the 50-wk MA is 232. Do you see a confluence? The critical 12-mth MA is at 236. The story is told at 232-238. AMZN bulls win big above 238 (price is at 243). Amazon bears win big below 232 and the 232-238 range is noise. Scamazon will leak lower during July and when 232 fails, you will see the once great Amazon puking in the alleyway next to the dumpster behind the bar.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: AMZN is at 245 trying to remain buoyant with happy talk. The monthly chart is ugly with the multi-month top placed in May due to the negative divergence. She likely has a long way down to go into year-end. Amazon is down -12% off the top in early May nine weeks ago.