There you go. The charts have priced-in the Federal Reserve jumbo rate cut of 50 bips. The SPX is topped-out on the 2-hour chart so the remainder of the week should be interesting.
The SPX, the S&P 500 index, the United States stock market, prints a new all-time closing high today at 5732.93 and new all-time intraday high, the highest number ever in history, at 5735.32. The bulls are running.
The SPX daily and weekly charts remain negatively diverged (see previous charts) so the idea was to wait until the 2-hour chart sets up so the top can be called. Honey, I'm home. In late August, you can see the prior top in the 2-hour time frame receiving the neggie d spankdown. Price drops as September begins but the intraday point low, making a matching low, came with the chart indicators positively diverged (green lines). Voila, up she goes with a possie d rocket launch.
So lots of drama occurs this month with inflation data and Fed speak floating the stock market ever higher. The red lines display the neggie d in play again as price makes the new all-time record highs. All the indicators are neggie d so the top is in and the 2-hour should kick-in the downside now which will likely kick-in the downside on the daily and weekly charts.
The blue rising wedge is bearish. The stochatics are overbot, and the RSI, almost, agreeable to a pullback. Take a look at the SPX daily chart and you see a hanging man candlestick print today so a trend change may occur right now. Hang Man! Hang Man! Gallows Pole.
The Keybot the Quant robot remains long with VIX one of the only negative metrics remaining which makes no sense as the SPX prints new all-time highs. It is unbelievable and bazaar. How can the stock market print new all-time highs and the VIX not dropping like a rock?
The VIX bull/bear line in the sand, as per the Keybot the Quant algorithm, is 15.24 and price is at 15.39, in the bear camp, only 15 pennies away from the bull camp. If VIX drops below 15.24, it verifies that the stock market rally is real and has legs higher. The analysts that have EOY target numbers up at 6.0K and even 6.1K will be throwing confetti. If, however, the VIX remains above 15.24, and then begins moving higher again, the stock market is toast, and the neggie d spankdown should begin the pain and misery ahead.
The chart above is teetering on the edge. One Last Breath. Blow on it, like a feather, and it should begin falling. The only thing that can stop it is more happy talk from the Fed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 9:54 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5740.13, lucky 13, and now sits at 5735. The bulls throw confetti as they drink Fed wine and buy stocks with both fists. The 2-hour says she's topped-out. The neggie d slapdown should begin any time today.
Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:12 AM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5741.03 five minutes ago and now sits at 5739. The bulls throw a big party. Wheee! Whoopie! Bulls are drunk as skunks throwing darts at the stock pages to pick tickers to play long. Irving Fisher's ghost appears and announces that the stock market is now at a permanently high plateau and will never drop from here.
Note Added Hump Day, 9/25/24, at 10:26 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. Who put that banana peel there? SPX 5732.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/26/24, at 4:34 AM EST: The battle yesterday was obviously at the VIX 15.24 line in the sand as outlined above. The bulls jammed it lower into munch time testing VIX 15.24 that is called out by the Keybot the Quant robot, but the VIX bounces maintaining stock market sogginess. The SPX ends the session at 5722. This morning, out of the gate, the VIX drops to 15.00 in early trading, so the bulls are throwing confetti and S&P futures are up nearly 50 points. Micron reports happy earnings so everyone and his bro are buying chip stocks with both fists sending global stock indexes higher. China also announces fiscal stimulus realizing it will have to bail-out the troubled real estate sector just like the Western nations must do when their corrupt financial systems become overextended. Human greed knows no bounds and is comfortable in any system be it communism, crony capitalism, socialism, Marxism, Naziism, dictatorships, etc...; it's all the same. The expectation of central banker easy money (PBOC) sends global stocks higher. Simply watch VIX 15.24 today, tomorrow and early next week and you will likely know how the last three months of the year will play out. The SPX 6K end-of-year targets need the VIX to continue lower to 14, 13 and 12, maybe 11, and the stock market party will be in full swing. If VIX moves back above 15.24, there will be nothing but a sick and soggy path forward for stocks to end the year. The S&P futures, if they hold, should bring the SPX cash price up to test the all-time high yesterday at 5741.03. As the SPX prints this matching price high or moves above, if it does, simply check the charts to see if the neggie d remains in play. It should, if not, it will reset again after this latest stick-save hype dissipates.
Note Added Thursday, 9/26/24, at 8:10 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 5767.37 and new all-time closing high at 5745.37. The 2-hour chart above has not changed and remains in neggie d so the top is in and stocks are expected to fall. The fight around VIX 15.25 continues and is the rudder steering the stock market ship. Inflation and sentiment data, and comments from Fed Governor Bowman, who was the lone dissenter of the rate cut (she wanted 25 bips instead of 50 bips), are on tap tomorrow.
Note Added Saturday, 9/28/24: The all-time highs from Thursday hold. It is comical to be at the all-time highs in the stock market after 15 years of obscene Federal Reserve money-printing starting with Helicopter Ben Bernanke. What a pile of sh*t it all is. Can't Believe We're Here. Crony capitalism is reaching its tragic denouement like every other corrupt government and country has over the last 5,000 years. Anyhoo, let's see how the charts are progressing. If you bring up the 2-hour, you can see the top, and neggie d for the indicators, so she was starting to roll over when the week ended. Hey, maybe a Black Monday will occur? That would be fun. So the 2-hour is cooked; how about the SPX daily chart? Negative divergence remains there as well as the new highs printed. The MACD line tries to create a couple more days of strength but is neggie d over the last couple months so do not put much credence in it. The daily chart wants to retreat so the near term does not look good. The new moon peaks on Wednesday at 2:49 PM EST and stocks are typically bearish moving through the new moon each month. On the weekly chart, neggie d remains as well. Who knows what is holding up the stock market? Blow on it and it will collapse. Happy data indicates that the 50-bip cut is more likely two days after the November election so stocks rally higher on the promises of more Fed easy money for as far as the eye can see. More crony capitalism puke. Maybe we do get a Black Monday. Put/call ratios are low verifying the off-the-charts bullish euphoria, fearlessness and rampant complacency with traders and investors buying any stock with a heartbeat with no fear that prices will ever go down again. The ghost of Irving Fisher rises above the stock exchange whispering in a spooky Halloween voice that stocks are at a permanently high plateau. The charts want the stock market to drop but the chips hype and falling inflation euphoria is maintaining stock price buoyancy. The Keybot the Quant robot remains long but is champing at the bit to go short and likely needs the SPX to drop below 5727 to flip short. The dollar daily chart wants to rally so it would make sense that stocks will drop as the dollar regains its footing and rallies higher. Keep watching the VIX 15.26 bull/bear line in the sand as identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Bulls win big below VIX 15.26 while bears will create market carnage the longer the VIX stays above 15.26 especially if it moves sharply higher and over 20.
Note Added Monday Evening, 9/30/24, at 5:59 PM EST: SPX prints a new all-time closing high at 5762.48 but the all-time intraday high from last Thursday holds at 5767.37. SPX drops to 5703 today and then rebounds strong after the Powell speech to the new high. Comically, Powell walks back a 50-bip cut for November saying everything is on the table but it does not matter; stocks rally any way. The upside party is in full swing. Traders are drunk as skunks buying any stock with a heartbeat. Keybot the Quant flipped short today at SPX 5709. Volatility and commodities are creating negativity and banks and chips are creating positivity. One of these four will flinch.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 10/1/24, at 5:39 PM EST: Instead of a Black Monday, it is a mini-Black Tuesday. The SPX falls to 5681 closing at 5709. The dock workers at US ports are on strike and Iran is firing missiles at Israel.
Note Added Saturday, 10/5/24: SPX 5751.07. The SPX prints another hangman candlestick. Hangman! Hangman!
Note Added Monday Evening, 10/7/24, at 7:01 PM EST: A mini-Black Monday was on tap today. The SPX collapses 55 points to 5696. The 20-day MA support is 5677.
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