Tuesday, November 29, 2016

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Battle for 50-Week MA

UTIL is testing the 50-week MA at 654.49 with important consequences resulting depending on which side price pivots.  Utilities were in a weekly downtrend (a UTIL chart was posted about a week ago; scroll back or type 'UTIL' into the search box at right to bring it up for further study--sort the search by date) and bounced from the initial try at the 50-week support. Price regrouped higher and then ran south again and this time pierced down through the 50-week opening up a trap-door for the stock market. Typically, bad things happen to stocks starting within two months when UTIL is in a weekly downtrend and also loses the 50.

Utes have been weak for a couple months but the stock market shows no sign of weakness in fact the Nasdaq Composite, COMPQ, prints a new all-time high today. This is very surprising behavior for markets and is testimony to the power that the central bankers have in keeping stocks elevated. The Trump Rally is based on government largess which will fund huge infrastructure projects. Government spending and Keynesian central banker money printing rules the markets for the last eight years.

UTIL price bounced off the lows a couple weeks ago and now comes up for a back test of the 50-week MA. This is for all the marbles. Note the beauty in the price movement coming down and bouncing directly off the 50, then falling through and now up for a textbook back test. If the bearish case wins out, UTIL price will collapse from here. This outcome would be very ominous for the stock market in the intermediate term (weeks and months ahead).

If UTIL continues higher leaving the 50-week MA in the rearview mirror, the bulls will rejoice and may be able to keep the stock market buoyant into the new year. Watch 654.49. It tells you a lot about broad market direction ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Afternoon at 1:57 PM EST:  The market bears win the battle with the utilities receiving a firm spank down from the 50-week. UTIL collapses on Wednesday and Thursday down to 622. Ouch. That will leave a mark. UTIL recovers today currently trading at 630 well below the 50-week MA at 654. Market bears smile as they growl softly under their breath.

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Sideways Channels; Inverted H&S

Oil is a major focus with the OPEC meeting on tap tomorrow. Iran says it will not agree to a production cut or freeze. Russia says they will not attend the meeting. Prices sink lower WTIC is down -3.9% to 45.27 as this is typed losing that 20-week MA at 46.13. Price may want to back kiss this level.

The big test is the 50-week MA support at 42.75 since it held two times over the last few months. A failure would send oil strongly lower quickly to 40. The green lines show the falling wedge, possie d and oversold conditions Keystone highlighted early in the year and voila, the bottom occurs and oil bounces moving higher. The two-leg bull pattern takes price up to the summer highs.

Price stumbles sideways through the blue channels specifically 40-50. Obviously, bulls win big above 50 and 52 while bears win big below 40 and 38. The red lines show a negative divergence spankdown for October but the indicators now stumble sideways unwilling to predict a path ahead. The ADX is way down at 11 so there is no strong trend in the market which encourages more sideways behavior ahead. The last strong trend was lower during  late 2014 and early 2015.

The inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern is in play shown with the grey bars. The head is 30 and neckline at 50 so the upside target is 70 if the neckline is taken out to the upside which is the 200-week MA resistance. The chart hints at a lot of sideways action ahead. The moving averages are lining out sideways representing and encouraging sideways behavior.

Today is OPEC eve so there is no reason to play oil, it is more like gambling than trading. Keystone has no positions in oil currently. Bulls win above 46.13 and bears win below 42.75. Price is at 45.25. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedges; Negative Divergence

It is interesting to look at the SPX weekly chart considering the wild upside Trump Rally orgy over the last three weeks. The chart is not impressed at all. While the daily and hourly charts are dealing with the parabolic spikes in pricing, the weekly chart motors along, yawning, unimpressed by all the euphoria. Of course the three white candlesticks show the jump since 11/7/16, however, the new all-time price highs come with negative divergence across all indicators. In this weekly time frame, there is little oomph to take stocks higher.

For the August market top, you see the neggie d with stoch's and the histogram that created the spankdown but the RSI, MACD and money flow indicators were long and strong wanting to see a higher high in the SPX in this weekly basis in the future. Those new highs occur over the last couple weeks and come with all the indicators now neggie d. The stochastics are overbot. The red lines show rising wedge patterns in play which are bearish.

The large volume candlestick three weeks ago occurs during and after the Trump election win. For such a large price and volume move, it would be prudent for the SPX to come back to test the 2100-2160 range to see how volume reacts at that level.

So the previous 2-hour SPX chart wants to see some further weakness in the VST. The daily SPX chart is agreeable to a day or three or so of weakness but would like to see price come up to test the highs again. The weekly chart is agreeable to some buoyancy for a few days or week or two but overall is set up for the downside. The MACD positive cross is a feather in the bull's cap so keep an eye on that. If the MACD cross turns negative that should get the ball rolling downhill on the weekly basis. If the MACD cross remains positive, the bulls are going to try and maintain buoyancy in the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Expansion Patterns; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

The SPX daily chart displays a couple of expansion, or megaphone patterns. Price tags the top purple trend line for the one expansion pattern while a much higher target remains if the SPX seeks the upper trend blue trend line. The histogram and stochastics are neggie d and want to see a pull back, which occurs yesterday, but the RSI, MACD line and money flow are long and strong wanting to see higher highs in price. Thus, you have to leave the door open that price will come back up in the days ahead to print another matching or higher high. At that time, if the indicators roll over with negative divergence, the top would be in on the daily  basis.

Marrying the above chart with the prior 2-hour chart, stocks may be weak in the nearer term, say today and tomorrow, on that 2-hour basis, but the daily influence above may come back into play afterward to lift price. The 2205 and 2194 are key S/R levels. Bulls win above 2205 and bears win under 2194. Since November was a huge up month, typically stocks are weak to end the month. The Jobs Report on Friday will create market turmoil as well as the Italian referendum on Sunday.

The chart hints at a day or two of softness then a recovery higher again. At that time watch the RSI, MACD and money flow indicators to see if they form neggie d. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Rising Wedges; Overbot; Negative Divergence

Keystone has been posting the 2-hour chart over the last week watching for the potential market top. The three-week Trump Rally has lots of momentum. On the bear side the low put/call ratios and high NYMO indicate a near-term top at hand. Investors are hooked on government spending and Keynesian money printing so Trump's promise of large infrastructure spending creates joy in the stock market.

The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and universal neggie d across all indicators signal a top and the SPX is spanked lower for four candlesticks, which is 6 to 8 hours of trading time. The indicators are weak and bleak but the RSI and stochastics have not yet crossed into bear territory under the 50% levels. The expectation is for lower lows in price ahead in this 2-hour time frame. The 2205 and 2194 support/resistance levels are in play. The Trump optimism keeps refueling the upside momentum but as the chart above indicates, price needs a rest. If price moves higher, and the S&P futures are up +4 two hours before Tuesday morning's opening bell, there is no reason for the SPX to seek the 2213 highs since negative divergence has printed for all indicators. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TICK Daily Chart

The TICK chart prints uber high +1,000 numbers in the daily basis. This identifies off-the-charts optimism and bullish excitement. When the TICK prints +1,000, it is a good time to short or to sell out of long positions. When the TICK prints -1,000, it is a good time to cover the shorts and go long.

The TICK is a must-use chart for day traders (use the TICK 1-minute chart). To gain an edge, before entering a long position, you want to see uber low TICK numbers and conversely, when you go short you want to see uber high TICK readings. This starts off your trade in a better position instead of blindly entering or exiting trades.

The chart has remained above -600 over the last year clearly illustrating the power of the central bankers that can pump stock markets higher forever with easy money (there are no uber low TICK readings for many months). The Trump Rally over the last three weeks creates the +1,000 ticks. Traders expect Trump to spend money on infrastructure so the basic materials, industrials, commodities and energy stocks run higher. Keynesian government and central banker spending rules the markets over the last eight years. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 and SPX/VIX Volatility Ratio Weekly Charts

The SPX/VIX is a ratio of the broad market to volatility. When the ratio is high, the bulls are euphoric and every day is another glorious day higher for the stock market (a red circle market top). When the SPX/VIX ratio is low  the market mood is somber as stocks tumble lower and volatility spikes higher (a green circle market bottom).

Note the bottom that occurred on 11/7/16 the day before the presidential election as negative sentiment and doom and gloom was off the charts (low SPX and higher VIX). A brief math lesson. Think back to your days in school when studying fractions. A ratio is a fraction. The numerator is the top number in the ratio and the bottom number is the denominator. When the numerator moves higher, the ratio moves higher. When the numerator moves lower the ratio drops. When the denominator rises, it pushes the ratio lower. When the denominator moves lower, the ratio moves higher.

Therefore, when times are happy and stocks are rising, the SPX is moving higher and it sends the SPX/VIX ratio higher. At the same time, the VIX will be dropping since traders are fearless and complacent while chasing the upside. The lower VIX, in the denominator, also sends the ratio higher for a double-whammy bullish effect. The ratio is useful since it magnifies the moves going on in the market and helps identify the key inflection points. As stocks sell off, the SPX moves lower, the numerator, so the ratio moves lower, and volatility will spike higher, so the higher VIX also sends the ratio lower for the double-whammy bearish effect.

The SPX/VIX chart indicates that stock market bottoms occur at sub 95-ish while significant market tops occur at 170-ish and above. The SPX/VIX printed at 180 a day ago and now sits at 167. What do you think will happen?

Pulling off the SPX point losses from the red circles downward yields the following losses over a 1 to 2-month period; 120, 80, 50, 205, 210, 40, 60 and 50. So the average point loss off a red circle top is 102 SPX points. The smallest loss is 40 points and the greatest loss is the 210 point drop early this year. Throwing out the smallest and largest losses, the average drop is 94 points. Thus, a reasonable assumption would be for a pull back in the markets over the coming weeks of from 40 to 100 SPX points. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Monday, November 28, 2016

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Displays 2016 Bradley Turns

The 2016 Bradley turn date windows are shown as the blue boxes. Information can be found concerning the calculation of the dates on the www.bradleysiderograph.com website. Suffice it to say that the turn dates typical indicate where a trend change occurs in the stock market. Sometimes the turn window results in a wild acceleration move one way or the other. A window of +/- 7 days is provided but the intent of the turn date is usually known in a tighter +/- 3 day time frame. The stock market is in the heart of the 11/29/16 window right now. Will stocks rocket launch vertically higher in the days ahead, or, will they quickly soften and begin a downward trend change lower?

The 2016 turn dates are 1/5, 5/10/ 6/1, 7/5, 9/28 and 11/29, tomorrow. Markets were in a downtrend into the start of the new year and the 1/5 window was a downside acceleration. The May window was a trend change higher for stocks. The June turn was a top that rolled stocks back over to the downside. The July window was an upside acceleration the big rally running from late June into the August top. The late September turn date was a trend change to the downside. The drama continues this week inside the blue box; which side will price exit? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 30-Minute Chart; 8/34 MA Cross

The 8/34 MA cross on the SPX 30-minute is a very useful VST (very short term) market indicator on direction. Day traders need to pay attention to this cross. On 11/7/16, the day before the election, the 8 crosses above the 34 and the bull party begins. The 8 now teases a negative cross but look at how  many times the bears hopes are dashed over the last month. One of these times the 8 will stab down through the 34 to begin the bear fun.

The red rising wedge is bearish as well as oberbot RSI and stochastics and universal negative divergence with the indicators so price is retreating in this 30-minute time frame. The ROC is weak and bleak wanting to see lower prices for the SPX. Bears need the negative 8/34 MA cross or they got nothing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Fibonacci Retracements

The three-week Trump Rally sends major stock indexes to new all-time record highs on Friday, 11/25/16. This morning, Monday, 11/28/16, about 90 minutes before the regular US trading session opens, S&P futures are down 6 points. Perhaps the euphoric rally has ran its course, as the put/call ratios and NYMO hint, or, the move lower may be a minor pull back in the trek higher. The put/calls and NYMO indicate that a pull back to one or more Fibonacci retracements is more in play than a minor few-point pull back. Price,however, may jog early this week (such as down Monday up Tuesday then down Wednesday); you are never sure of a near-term top until it is actually proven in the rear-view mirror.

For the huge rally from 11/7/16, a day before the presidential election, to present, 11/28/16, the SPX (S&P 500) rallies from 2088 to 2213 a huge 125-point leap, +6%. Shorts are running for their lives. If the 2213 is the near-term market top, the first Fibonacci retracement level at a 38% retracement is 2163. The 50% Fib retracement is 2148 and the 62% Fib is 2133.

The 20-day MA is 2156 and rising sharply as would be expected since it quickly responds to price being only a 20-day moving average. The 100-day MA is at 2159 floating higher. Group this with the 38% Fib and the important support/resistance levels listed on the weekend in a previous post, a landing zone at 2160-2164 is in play with 2164 very strong support.

As the previous S/R information exhibits, if price retreats, it will test and/or fall through 2205, then 2194, 2190, 2182-2183, 2175, 2169 and then test the 2160-2164. Price can bounce from any of these S/R levels. The 50-day MA is at 2152 moving flatish with a slight upward bias so this joins with the 50% Fib and S/R numbers to create a landing zone at 2146-2152.

The 150-day MA at 2132 teams up with the 62% Fib creating a potential price landing zone in the 2131-2133 range which is very strong and critical support for the broad stock market. Note how the Fibonacci lines line up with the price action during the rally higher from 11/7 thru 11/15. This does not display as typical behavior for the Fibonacci retracements and since it does appear it adds credibility to the Fib numbers and landing zones mentioned.

Start the week by watching SPX 2205, if that holds, the bears got nothing. If 2205 fails, the SPX will target 2194. Bears need higher volatility. Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, remains long and is currently tracking VIX 13.85 as a key market direction metric. Market bulls win if VIX remains under 13.85. Bears win if the VIX moves above 13.85. The VIX is trading right now at 13.26. If the stock market sells off but the VIX remains below 13.85, stocks will recover intraday and rally. The market selling will be sustainable if VIX moves above 13.85. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:55 AM EST: The SPX LOD is 2205 and holding. The VIX is 13.11 well under the 13.85 targeted by the quant. Bulls are not concerned about the selling in the stock market since volatility remains low. Here comes the SPX down to 2205 for another test..... bounce or die.....VIX 13.25....

Note Added 2:44 PM EST: The SPX bounces and the VIX falls under 13 to 12.86 the bulls are not permitting any significant weakness to enter the markets. Here comes the SPX down for another test of the 2205 support. VIX is 12.87 so the bears do not have strength.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 11/28/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 11/28/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For the S&P 500 in history, the all-time record high print occurs last Friday, 11/25/16, at 2213.35 for both the all-time intraday high and all-time closing highs. The all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2016, the intraday high and closing high thus far is of course the 2213.35. The intraday low for this year is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low thus far this year is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 was 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

The three-week Trump Rally continues resulting in new all-time highs on all four major indexes; SPX; INDU or DJI, COMPQ and RUT. The month ends, EOM, on Wednesday, 11/3016. November began at 2126 so the month will likely print bullish. When stocks are strong through a given month, however, they are typically weak the last couple-few days of the month.

The new moon peaks on 7:18 AM EST Tuesday morning, 11/29/16, and stocks are typically bearish moving through the new moon each month. A Bradley turn date is on Tuesday so a market inflection point is at hand in this 11/22 to 12/6 window and especially 11/23 through 12/2 (now). The inflection may manifest as a wild vertical spike higher, or, a trend change where stocks roll over to the downside. This week will tell the tale.

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios are complacent looking for a near-term top to print at anytime. Ditto the elevated NYMO. The low VIX also verifies lack of fear in the market. Everyone is drinking central banker wine and toasting Trump for all the money he plans to spend on infrastructure.

The SPX began the year at 2044. The new week begins at 2213, a 169-point gain this year up +8.3%. The central bankers saved the markets in February and the coordinated global money printing creates the multi-month rally. The Trump election victory now creates optimism that money will be spent on infrastructure so commodities, basic materials and industrials stocks soar higher, as well as the bankers. The central bankers and government spending is the market.

For Monday, 11/28/16, with the S&P 500 beginning at 2213, the highest level in history, the bulls need any smidge of green in the S&P futures and the SPX will run higher after the opening bell towards 2220. The bears need to push the SPX under 2205-2206 to create a downside acceleration to 2200 in a flash. A move through 2207-2212 is sideways action for Monday.

Looking at the near-term picture the support/resistance is 2213, 2205, 2198-2199, 2194, 2190, 2187, 2182-2183, 2178-2179, 2175, 2169-2170 and 2164.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2213 (11/25/16 All-Time Intraday High: 2213.35) (11/25/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2213.35) (11/25/16 All-Time Closing High: 2213.35) (11/25/16 Closing High for 2016: 2213.35)
2213.35 Previous Week’s High
2213.35 Friday HOD
2213.35 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2206.27 Friday LOD
2194 (8/15/16 Intraday High: 2193.81)
2190 (8/15/16 Closing High: 2190.15)
2186.43 Previous Week’s Low
2161.43 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2160.46 (20-week MA)
2159.43 (100-day MA)
2155.60 (20-day MA)
2151.66 (50-day MA)
2135 (5/20/15 Intraday High: 2134.72)
2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)
2131 (5/21/15 Closing High: 2130.82)
2131.90 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)
2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)
2126.15 November Begins Here
2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)
2024.58 (150-week MA)
2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)
2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)
2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)
2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)
2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)
2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2111.04)
2110.54 (10-month MA)
2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)
2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)
2103.39 (200-day MA)
2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)
2102 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2102.40)
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2090.80 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076.75 (50-week MA)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075.07 (20-month MA)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069.38 (100-week MA)
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)
2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1935.01 (200-week MA)
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901.68 (50-month MA)
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)
1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)
1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)
1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX issued a market buy signal on 11/9/16 and 11/10/16 so if you were monitoring this tool you were happy to jump on board the upside. The six percentage-point reversals are key for the BPSPX as well as the 70% and 30% levels. The market bears were happy as the BPSPX reversed six points off the highs and then collapsed down through the 70 level for a double whammy sell signal. Remember how weak stocks were leading into the week of the presidential election. Stocks began rallying from those oversold levels, and panic levels, on 11/7/16 the day before the 11/8/16 election and equities took off higher afterwards. The rally is now three-weeks along.

The BPSPX reversed six points from the 50 level to above 56 so the bulls celebrated the market buy signal. The chart remains favorable for bulls unless a six-point percentage reversal occurs which would be under 57.40. The bulls will rejoice if the BPSPX moves above 70 since the upside in stocks will remain sustainable. If the BPSPX keeps moving higher, keep subtracting the six points so you know where a potential market sell signal may occur. For now, the bulls are happy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3:02 PM EST on Monday, 11/28/16: The stock market is down marginally today but the BPSPX floats higher to 64.20, so the bears need the price to fall under 58.20 in the days ahead to regain control (64.20-6.00).

SPX, INDU, COMPQ and RUT All-Time Record Highs

The Trump Rally and central banker money printing creates a wild and strong three-week upside move in the equity markets. Small caps outperform with the Russell 2000 up 15 of 15 days a streak not seen in over two decades. All four indexes closed the Friday, 11/25/16, session out at the highs so the all-time intraday and all-time closing high numbers are same. The SPX (S&P 500) all-time intraday and closing high is 2213.35. INDU (Dow Jones Industrials) 19152.14. COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite) 5398.92. RUT (Russell 2000 Small Caps) 1347.20. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; H&S

Utilities are key to the broad market path ahead especially over the intermediate term (weeks and months). Utes went into a weekly downtrend at the neon square 8 weeks ago. By comparing the current price to the price 15 weeks ago determines whether utilities are in a weekly uptrend or downtrend. The weekly downtrend continues. Interestingly, when utilities lose the weekly uptrend and turn into a downtrend, the broad stock market typically rolls over within a couple months. Moreover, UTIL lost its 50-week MA, which Keystone calls the trap-door, which portends ominous things ahead for the stock market in the intermediate term.

Instead, stocks rally to new all-time highs after the Trump election boosted by the banks, commodities, basic materials, industrial and small caps. The rise in Treasury yields should keep the utilities subdued since large funding of utility projects are sensitive to interest rate hikes.

The chart is a mixed bag. The blue lines clearly show a textbook head and shoulders (H&S) pattern in play. The neckline is at 640 and head at 720 which projects a downside target at 560 (640-80). Price collapses through the neckline two weeks ago and last week comes up for a back test and decides to park there over the weekend. The pivot from the neckline is important on Monday. The typical expectation would be for price to fail and the trek to 560 to begin, however, these are not your  grandfather's markets. The central bankers have contorted and convoluted all asset class behavior over the last few years.

The indicators show positive divergence which created the bounce last week sans the MACD line which is still slightly negative-sloping hinting that another test of the recent low at 615-625 would be desired. The RSI, MACD and money flow have not reached oversold levels which leaves the door open for lower prices.

The bulls need further follow through to the upside and for price to regain the neckline of the H&S. The 50-week MA at 653-ish is key. As long as UTIL stays below here, the expectation would be for stock market trouble in the weeks and months ahead. If UTIL regains 653, the bulls are likely going to take the stock market higher into year end. The brown line is where the weekly trend would turn into an uptrend and the purple line is for next week (week of 12/5/16) which would create a weekly uptrend. This week, watch the H&S neckline at 640, the 50-week 653 and 682-ish (brown line signaling a new uptrend for utes) closely. Next week, 640, 654 and 668-ish (purple line) will be key. Of course bears want to see a pivot lower from the neckline at 640 and they will throw confetti knowing that the stock market will be in trouble going forward on the weekly basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added at 3:04 PM EST on Monday, 11/28/16: UTIL leaps higher to 652.06. HOD is 652.18. The 50-week MA is 654.44 and rising. The market bulls will win big over the intermediate term if they can push UTIL above 654.44. Market bears need to push utilities lower immediately.

NDX Nasdaq 100 Index Daily Chart

The upside Trump Rally orgy continues for the stock market with new record highs printing for the SPX, INDU and DJI, COMPQ and RUT. The NDX, Nasdaq 100, however, has not yet attained this historic achievement. The all-time historic high for the NDX is at 4911.76 from 10/25/16 and the all-time closing high is 4909.97 from 10/24/16 (green circle). 

The overbot stochastics and negative divergence with stoch's and RSI (red lines) create the selling last Wednesday but stocks recover on Friday. The histogram MACD line and money flow are long and strong wanting to see another matching or higher high in price in the 4878-4885 area. It would be prudent for the bears to close that gap at 4885-4890 before heading south.  Price has not yet violated the upper band at 4904 (pink) so that is on the table. Of course the all-time highs at 4910 and 4912 are critical levels that either confirm the broad stock market joy, or not.

Keystone the Scribe recaps the AGMANHASFUN ("A G-Man Has Fun") stocks each week in the chronology. These key stocks, GOOGL (Alphabet), GE, MSFT, AAPL, NFLX, HD, AMZN, SBUX, FB, UA and NKE, are the high-flyers that have carried the broad stock market higher for the last 2 to 3 years. These stocks had propelled the NDX to new highs in October but are now soggy.

The three-week stock market rally began on 11/7/16 the day before the 11/8/16 election. Trump was awarded the victory in the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday, 11/9/16, and that began an acceleration higher in stocks. Note, however, that the NDX quickly stalled. Initially, investors were not running into the high-flyers after the election. From 11/14/16 and on, however, the high-flyers catch a bid and propel the major indexes to new highs sans the NDX.

The stock markets move higher for the last eight years fueled by the central bankers easy money. Companies are using easy credit conditions to buyback stock and artificially pump stock prices higher. This enriches the wealthy elite that own large stock portfolios. Companies scoff at using the Fed's and other central banker's easy money to buy equipment or hire workers. There is no reason to do this in a sluggish stagnant economy. Instead, the Fed rewards the wealthy.

Watch NDX closely this week since a new all-time high will confirm sustainability in the equity rally and chart the path for SPX 2300 that many Wall Street analysts continue to forecast for this year. If NDX stalls, the bears will begin growling. The RUT (Russell 2000) small caps are outperforming since the election since Trump's potential protectionist agenda will hurt multinationals but the more domestically-focused small caps would fare better. Commodities, basic materials and industrial stocks also rally strongly believing that lots of infrastructure spending is on tap. Copper goes through the roof printing a record rally. Banks also rally after the Trump victory.

The stock market rally will likely not continue without the help of the AGMANHASFUN stocks so watch them closely as well as the NDX. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.