WTIC West Texas Intermediate Light Crude Oil Monthly Chart; Ominous Descending Triangle Pattern with Ominous 66.666 Baseline Support

Oil is a big topic of discussion these days. Earl, as they say in the Texas oilfields. Merle must protect his guitar pickin' fingers, so I'll Fix Your Flat Tire Merle, don't you get your sweet country-pickin' fingers all covered with earl.

Anyhoo, the thick red horizontal price support line at the ominous 66.666 is bigtime important spanning the last 4 years. It was a high in 2020 as the pandemic hit and slapped oil down to sub 10 intramonth. West Texas touches the important 66.666 line in the sand in 2021 and the peak in oil occurs at 115-124 during springtime 2022. Price retreats back to the 66.666 baseline support in 2023, then a bounce, then back down for another touch as this year started, then a bounce, and this month back down to 66.33 for another test of the critical baseline support and, another bounce now at 73 and change.

The ominous 66.666 is for all the marbles. Above fosters the idea of a stronger economy with higher demand for oil and inflation while a drop below 66.666 opens the door to Hades, disinflation and deflation, and a likely global recession/depression. Choose your poison.

The descending triangle pattern over the last couple years is ominous. With the top of the vertical side at 115-124 and baseline at 66-68, the downside target if the baseline fails is 47-58. That will get your attention. It would likely mean that China's recovery is not happening and since Europe is China's top trading partner, the countries across the pond will go down the chute, Germany is already in the dirty laundry recession, Japan and the US would follow. It all depends on 66.666.

This 73-78 range will continue to create a textbook descending triangle pattern for oil from which price would be expected to head lower for another test of 66.666 and, since time has run out for the pattern, a major bounce or die decision will have to be made.

The WTIC daily chart is receiving a neggie d spankdown from the 200-day MA at 77.21 but the MACD remains long and strong so price may want to come up again to the 77-ish price over the next day or few and that may top things out in the daily time frame. The weekly oil chart is uninspiring stumbling along sideways with the indicators showing a slight negative bias.

The big test of 66.666 is likely on tap for next week and a failure would tell you that the gloom and doom scenario is on tap for the many months, and perhaps year or three, ahead. Get your popcorn ready. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 10/14/24, at 6:37 AM EST: WTIC oil 73.80. Price ran above 76 last Thursday and Friday but did not make it back up to the 200-day MA at 77.22. The MACD on the daily chart remains long and strong hinting that price still wants to float higher perhaps for another back kiss of the 200, but allow the week to begin and for the new candlesticks to appear on the charts. Lack of details and numbers from China concerning stimulus for their sick economy creates sogginess in oil and copper.

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/14/24, at 7:48 PM EST: WTIC oil 71.64. Oil slips on a banana peel after Israel says the Iran oil fields may not be targeted in the pending attack. Crude is only 5 bucks from the critical and ominous 66.666 support where everyone's lives will change going forward.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/15/24, at 6:05 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. WTIC oil is at 69.79 sporting a 69-handle. Global oil traders are clenching their buttocks saying any pullback in oil is temporary. Analysts proclaim that oil will spike again once Israel starts firing missiles at Iran in response to the radical Islamic terrorist's (Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthi (Yemen), Iran) aggression against their homeland and the Western way of life.