SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Historic Stock Market Top At Hand

This month is looking a lot like last month. Stocks staggering sideways like the drunk in Times Square last evening. The US stock market is at a historic top but, as all these charts have explained the last few months, you have to wait for that pesky MACD to go neggie d before the top can be confirmed (blue circle).

All other chart indicators are in negative divergence (red lines) with overbot conditions agreeable to a multi-month smackdown ahead. Price made the matching high as compared to August so it is all systems go for a neggie d spankdown, in this case a multi-month if not several year beat down in stocks, except for the MACD. There are 3 trading days remaining in September so a big downdraft move in stocks in the week ahead may be enough to pull the MACD lower into negative divergence but it may be too tall of a task in the limited time.

With all the wild choppy ups and downs this month, the MACD went neggie d a few times but it was then stick-saved to still show the upward slope in the blue circle. The MACD is in nosebleed territory. The guy selling peanuts refuses to walk all the way up there, into that thin air, to sell a bag of nuts. This means that stocks can simply begin lower and start the multi-month pullback right now without the MACD going neggie d (because it is already in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down).

October trading starts Thursday so check the monthly chart then because a new candlestick will be showing for the new month. It may be a repeat set-up like the end of last month. Price will remain elevated with matching or higher highs. Bears would be happy with this because any slope lower in the MACD locks-in the negative divergence going forward and the stock market is toast. Remember, you have to wait until you see the white's of their eyes, or in this case the blue circle.

The SPX has tagged the upper standard deviation band so a trip lower to the middle band, also the 20-mth MA, at 6741, and rising, is on the table for the weeks and months ahead. Ditto the lower band at 5552 and rising.

The Aroon is as expected for a historic top. The green line shows that every bull believes the stock market will go up forever and there is no end to the equity glory gravy train. This Train Is Bound for Glory. Everyone is in party mode. The red line is almost back into oversold territory in other words, the vast majority of bears also believe that stocks will continue higher forever, just like the bulls, again, this would be expected at a historic top.

The purple circles show the distribution months where the smart money is sloughing off shares to Amy Sucka, Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder and Fiona Fool. Pump and dump, baby. This is why the Wall Streeter's walk around in $5,000 custom-tailored Armani suits. The investment houses parade across television and internet screens telling you to buy, buy, buy, and they just so happen to have some shares they can sell you. They do not want you to miss out on the fun (said the spider to the fly).

The volume candlesticks show that as retail investors are excited one month, bam, bam, the smart money dumps shares to the dumb money the following month taking advantage of the bullish optimism. Rinse and repeat at a historic top to provide the smart money enough time to ditch a lot of their longs. When stocks collapse, Amy, Joe, Carlos and Fiona are crying in their beer wearing barrels as the fat cats smoke cigars laughing at the average person's greed and stupidity that is so easily manipulated. Are you the dumb money? Are you going to be a bagholding sucker?

Watch the next 3 days to see if the bears can stomp stocks lower and get the MACD to go neggie d, if not, no biggie, check it at the end of the week with the new October candlestick underway. It is exciting with this historic top at hand and we will be in the ominous month of October known for epic crashes. Are you excited? Are you ready or are you drinking the Kool-Aid? Is it the End of the Line? Just some guys hanging around playing their guitars. They show the rocking chair with Roy's guitar where he used to sit and play; one friend gone. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AAPL Apple Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Apple stock floats higher because, it's Apple. Going forward, CEO John Ternusaround is going to have to bring more to the table. The Duo, or Do Over, is yesterday's spaghetti warmed up in the microwave. Americans cannot afford to pay bills so a new smartphone is likely not on the agenda. Keystone posted the weekly chart a few days ago so price is cooked on the weekly, and also daily time frames, with neggie d.

There was no reason for AAPL price to come up after the top 3 days ago but alas, as said above, Apple is Apple and traders and investors are programmed to hold AAPL stock through thick and thin. If you take a closer look, there is a worm poking its head out of that apple looking back at you. Fiona Apple's voice was Criminal. She's been a bad, bad girl.

The red lines show how price makes new highs, but the indicators continue to slope lower, no longer able to provide strength to push price higher. That means a negative divergence beat down is at hand, for this chart it is in the daily basis. AAPL is in trouble considering both the daily and weekly charts are pieces of garbage displaying neggie d. Plan accordingly.

Note the purple arrows showing the bands squeezing in tight. That forecasts a big move at hand but does not predict direction. Price was squeezed-out higher from 310 to 346 within a month. The upper band is violated so a move to the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 329 is on the table for starters.

People want to believe in Apple but the chart says exit stage right. What happens when the darling of the market, beloved Apple stock, starts taking the pipe? Will confidence in the stock market be lost?

On the 2-hour chart, price may need a few hours to print a higher high to begin the week, and then receive a negative divergence spankdown along with the daily and weekly time frames. The Apple monthly chart is interesting. It is in negative divergence except for the MACD that is in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down. Apple is printing a major historic top either in this near-term or within the next month or two. The monthly chart will confirm that as the coming weeks play out. 

Keystone is not in AAPL long or short right now but obviously the play forward is on the short side. Apple believers are zombies forever believing in the stock. Zombie by The Cranberries. Poor Dolores dead for 8 years. She was a great talent. Great stage presence. Hope for peace. Isn't the concert crowd fantastic? Not one garbage smartphone in sight; that changed in this new century. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; 40-Week MA at 23300 Determines a Cyclical Bull Market Versus a Cyclical Bear Market

The stock market continues chopping along in the sideways slop. However, the broad NYA index has taken the pipe over the last 6 weeks falling from 24867 to 23760, a 1107 point drop, -4.5%, and ending the week at 23913. No one notices since they are too busy buying stocks.

The red rising wedge pattern is bearish and ominous since price is dancing at the bottom rail. It is time to bounce or die. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic.

The top was an easy call due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions (RSI, stochastics, money flow) and of course, the main reason, neggie d. The red lines show how price made the higher highs in August so the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence. ALL the chart indicators were in negative divergence in August (sloping down while price is sloping higher) confirming that NYA was completely out of gas and a top on the weekly basis is in place. Price had no further strength to move higher. Thus, it was time to receive the neggie d spankdown and begin a multi-week pullback.

The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading that is the art, and science, of calling tops and bottoms in the markets. 

The fun begins and continues for 6 weeks with price receiving the smackdown and the chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see more lows in price in the weeks ahead even if price will stage a relief rally for a week or two. The stochastics are about to go sub 50 into bear territory. Ditto the RSI.

The chart is ugly but no one wants an ugly face on a Saturday night. Won't you come out tonight, babe? I'd love to see your face. Jesse Welles. The pink boxes for the ADX show that the NYA was in a strong trend higher to begin the year but that fell apart during the stock market selloff. After many months, the ADX once again started to indicate that the trend higher was strong but alas, it rolls over and dies now down to sub 25 indicating that the move higher into August is no longer a strong trend higher.

The Aroon is a hoot. As the summer started, the bears tried to flex their weight, but they were stuffed by the historic bullish euphoria and stock market complacency, and belief in all things AI. The Aroon green line remains oversold so basically all the bulls remain bullish the stock market even after the 6-week -5% pullback. It does not even phase the bulls. They call it a buying opportunity. The funny part is the red line at zero. The bears are totally dejected and given up all hope that stocks will ever go down. There are no bears remaining on Wall Street only various stages of bullishness. The bears have completely given up. That is hilarious. Even funnier than all the bears remaining completely bullish on stocks, the bears are also more bullish on stocks than the bulls. Funny stuff. What do you think is going to happen going forward, idiots? But Keystone, the guy on television said buy, buy, buy.

All of the above doom and gloom aside, let's get down to business. The blue line is the 40-week MA one of Keystone's major market metrics that determine a cyclical bull versus bear market. Note that earlier this year when stocks were falling apart, they bounced from this critical test level. The 40-week MA is at 23313 and this will drift a bit lower as price slumps down for a potential test of this critical support. If the NYA fails at 23300, that is when you realize that you screwed-up by holding on to all your long stocks. You will be bludgeoned and wearing a barrel.

You know what to watch. First, see if the wedge failure occurs, if so, price will likely collapse sharply lower perhaps to immediately test the 40-week. If the 40 fails, it is lights out for the stock market for many weeks and months forward. Let the festivities begin.

Price is at 23913 and the drop to 23300 is 613 points so 613 divided by 23913 is 0.0256 and multiply by a hundo to make it a percentage is a -2.6% from here where it would all be on the line at the 40-week MA and determine the fate of the stock market for the remainder of the year. Watch it closely. The bulls are riding along the happy trail singing hallelujah and celebrating stocks, even with the -5% drawdown, but the wheels are wobbly and starting to fall off the party wagon. Hallelujah Trail by Charley Crockett. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, finally flips long at SPX 7728 after 2 months of choppy stock market slop. Oil drops so stocks rock and the orgy party in semi's today sends equities to the moon. However, nothing has changed. Bulls need stronger banks to prove they got game. Bears need weaker chips and copper and higher volatility.

Keybot the Quant

Copper Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Tight Bands Forecast Big Move Coming

Copper is the red metal, or the other yellow metal if you prefer, and has experienced a record multi-year upside rally on the AI, data center, and all things chips and electronics hype. Copper was always an indicator for the housing and automobile industries since these were the two biggest users of copper. The indoor plumbing is copper and the car wiring, electronics and other parts, such as the starter motors, are copper.

But in recent years, technology rules the roost and with the AI hype, copper has found a new sugar daddy. Copper is now an indicator for the health of the artificial intelligence sector. Homes are now fitted with non-copper pipes. The slow rise of EV's (glorified golf carts) are big users of copper so the adoption, or shunning, of electric vehicles will impact copper prices. Copper is also subjected to global weather events and civil unrest and riots. Copper shines riding the AI wave.

But will the wave crash? The rising wedge pattern is ominous as price works up into the apex with nowhere left to go. The collapses from the bearish rising wedge can be quite dramatic. Two weeks ago, price received the initial neggie d spankdown slap but last week, after price touched the bottom of the wedge it bounced, on more AI hype, and price ran higher to the top rail of the wedge.

The red lines clearly show the negative divergence in play across all chart indicators. Copper is out of gas without any fuel remaining in the tank. Not even any fumes.  The expectation is for copper to begin a multi-week neggie d spankdown.

The standard deviation bands are squeezing in to multi-year tightness (purple arrows). A huge move is on deck for copper, on the weekly basis. Tight bands forecast a big move on tap but do not predict direction. The chart is bearish so down is the expected path forward but Emperor Jensen or Lord Dario may provide happy AI talk that gives the red metal another boost. The chart is toast, on the weekly basis, so happy news is all that can save it now. The copper monthly chart remains long and strong so price should receive the smack down from now say through much of October and then likely recover into year end.

October is at our doorstep. Interesting. The month known for crashes. September is usually a lousy month for stocks but the notable crashes occurred in October. Watch your wallet.

The US housing market has slipped into a double-dip recession so copper pipes and fittings are collecting dust at the plumbing supply company. EV's have lost some of the luster. Buy one of those electric golf carts and you buy a job plugging it in and out, looking for charging stations, and the rest of it. What idiot buys an EV when a gas station is on every corner? With housing slumping, and the auto business sluggish since common folks do not have any money, AI is carrying copper on its back and its spindly legs are starting to give-way.

Copper is set to take a multi-week slide lower unless the AI tech bros can save the day with more hype. Forget the tech bros and instead go with the Blues Brothers. Live, from Calumet, Illinois, give it up for the Blues Bros. Dan Aykroyd's fat old arse could not dance like that now if his life depended on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: Dr Copper is shot-up with more morphine and continues dancing a jig of joy. Price pops this week up to the top rail at 6.83 again piercing the upper band as the standard deviation bands continue pulling-in tight. A big move is coming and the weekly chart remains in neggie d saying down is ahead for a few weeks. Tell that to the price. Copper is spanked down from the 6.83 trading at 6.66. Trip 6's.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Crash -12% into a Correction Over the Last 8 Weeks; Utes Crash -16% in 9 Weeks to 999

Keystone has warned several times about the failing utilities. When utes lead the broad market lower, it is a bad omen for nasty things coming. No one cares because they are too busy buying stocks with both fists.

UTIL, or DJU, collapses from 1183 to 1042, a drop of 141 points, or -12%, into a correction, losing -1-1/2% per week for the last 2 months, but no one notices.

Plan accordingly. Pretty and talented Ella Langley is receiving lots of attention these days, especially from men. Choosin' Texas. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 9/21/26: UTIL crashes to 1035 but no one cares since they are too busy buying stocks because oil prices are falling and chips rallying.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: UTIL crashes to 1015. Wow! Utilities have crashed -14% in only 2 months. Prepare the bunker.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/25/26: UTIL crashes to 1007 now down -15% in 9 weeks. Let the festivities begin. Typically, the broad stock market would follow utes lower within 0 to 8 weeks time. We are now at 9 weeks. Something has got to give. Gird your loins.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 9/29/26: UTIL crashes to 999, breaking through 1K, now down -16% in 9 weeks. 

UST30Y 30-Year US Treasury Bond Yield Weekly Chart; Tweezer Top; Overbot (Yield); Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

Those expecting big upside in Treasury yields will be disappointed at least with the current status of the charts. Of course news can change things suddenly and the BOJ is now on a rate hiking cycle creating market angst. The US 30-year yield runs higher (bonds are sold off) to 5.40% and the candlesticks form a Tweezer Top (blue circle). Ideally, the upper shadows should be a bit longer but it is close enough for government work.

The red lines show the rising wedge pattern that is bearish for the chart. The red lines for the chart indicators show that as yield makes a matching and higher high, the indicators are all sloping lower in negative divergence. There is no more fuel in the tank to take the 30-year yield higher on the weekly basis. Watch the MACD line since it may try to sneak out a few days more or week or so of buoyancy but the MACD is clearly neggie d over the last 2 years and would be agreeable to falling apart now.

Bond traders yell, "Blasphemy!" Many traders expect the Treasury yields to move higher not lower. The 30-year yield tagged the upper band so the middle band, the 20-wk MA at 5.11%, is on the table as the multi-week neggie d spankdown begins. Yield may adjust lower over the coming weeks and play around in that 5.00% to 5.20% range.

The weekly yield charts for 2's, 5's and 10's are similar but the MACD lines still have oomph for higher yields to occur in these shorter duration yields. It will be nothing extended a long time; only a couple weeks or so when all the indicators on these weekly charts will be neggie d and begin a multi-week drawdown for these yields. You can call those tops when they occur using the above chart as an example.

The interesting takeaway is that the 30-year yield will lead the way lower going forward as the neggie d spankdown on the weekly basis takes hold. The 2's, 5's and 10's will follow lower on the weekly basis after they top out over the next couple weeks or so.

Currently, stocks go down when oil goes up, yields go up and the dollar goes up. The reverse is also in play. Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot that is why Keystone was disinvited to the Autumn Equinox celebration at the VFW on Tuesday, stocks are sold off and notes and bonds are sold off (yields up) at the same time. Stocks are bot and notes and bonds are bot (sending yields lower) at the same time, like today.

If the chart above says yields are topping out on a weekly basis technical-wise, one would think that stocks would be bot along with Treasuries that are bot sending yields lower. Au contraire, Pierre. Keystone has a friend named Pierre since youth. His parents owned a bar in town. They had nothing to do with France and were not French. His parents simply liked the name Pierre. Unfortunately, he said every time he met someone, within a few minutes, they would ask, "are you French?"

A historic stock market top is in play currently. Remember, the MACD line on the SPX monthly chart tells us if the top is in and this month's chart will be cast in concrete in 9 trading days.

Thus, it is highly likely that the stock market will puke going forward. Stocks will be sold off and some of that money will go into Treasuries for perceived safety and that will send yields lower (stocks will be sold and Treasuries bot not like the current behavior). Keystone is not playing Treasury derivatives now long or short. Keep your wits about you going forward. About a Girl by Kurt and Nirvana. The 1990's Grunge scene. Nirvana's Nevermind album put a stake through the heart of the 1980's hair band era. Great times until Kurt blew his brains out. Dave Grohl the drummer went on to play guitar and be the frontman of the Foo Fighters. Bassist Krist Novoselic was a politician for a while and after that leads a low-key life. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: The US yields are; 2-year 4.74%, 5-year 4.86%, 10-year 5.00% and 30-year 5.33%. The 2-10 spread is 26 bips. The 10-year breached the 5% mark that will make Secretary Bessent talk more nervously, if that is possible. Global rates head higher hinting as a structural change to the worldwide note and bond market.

Note Added Monday, 9/21/26: The US yields are; 2-year 4.75%, 5-year 4.83%, 10-year 4.95% and 30-year 5.28%. The 2-10 spread is 20 bips.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26, at 4:34 AM EST: A big bond selloff occurs (chart above moves higher) after strong manufacturing data, higher oil prices and a weak 5-year auction ignite inflation fears. The 10-year yield hits decades-high levels. The 30-year yield is the highest since 2004. The US yields are; 2-year 4.90%, 5-year 5.02%, 10-year 5.14% and 30-year 5.43%. The 2-10 spread is 24 bips. The charts have not changed so give it a few days and see how it levels out.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/25/26, at 5:12 AM EST: The big bond selloff continues. Wow. The US yields are; 2-year 4.88%, 5-year 5.01%, 10-year 5.15% and 30-year 5.45%. The 2-10 spread is 27 bips. The short end is bot while the long end is sold. The 30-year yield explodes higher to 5.50% before retreating. That is wild. The 30 runs from 5.26% to 5.50% in less than 3 days a huge 24 basis points. Global traders are losing confidence in the United States and Donnie Chump. The move now has momentum so it will probably take a couple weeks for the chart to reset but the neggie d will reform after this orgy move higher in yields. News is the only thing that could extend the yields higher since the chart was topped out on the weekly and the soundbites save the day; higher oil and energy prices, hot US manufacturing growth due to data centers, too much supply coming to market, banks are going to want more money for taking on more risk for AI ventures, take your pick. The economic and manufacturing data hint at growth ahead versus the massive US debt overload that likely cannot be resolved going forward (loss of confidence in the US that has become fiscally irresponsible). 

Note Added Monday Evening, 9/28/26, at 6:41 PM EST: The US yields are; 2-year 4.93%, 5-year 5.07%, 10-year 5.24% and 30-year 5.55%. The 2-10 spread is 31 bips so the yield curve steepens. In 9 days, the 2-year yield is up a big 19 basis points. Wow. The 5-year is up 21 bips. The 10-year is up 24 bips. The 30-year is up 22 bips. The long end is up more in yields so the yield curve steepens. When yields pop higher, Trump and Bessent say the bonds are getting yippie. We need Caroline and the Yip Yip Yow.

Note Added Tuesday, 9/29/26, at 12:44 PM EST: The US yields are; 2-year 4.93%, 5-year 5.10%, 10-year 5.28% and 30-year 5.61%. The 2-10 spread is 35 bips. The longer duration yields run higher while the short end remains anchored.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/30/26, at 5:26 AM EST: The US yields are; 2-year 4.87%, 5-year 5.04%, 10-year 5.23% and 30-year 5.56%. The 2-10 spread is 36 bips. 

Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text and Charts Books Now Available Via Amazon

The Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text and Coronavirus Chronology Charts are now available on Amazon. These are the fifth and sixth books in the Coronavirus Chronology series that is the official historical record of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amazon link.

The Coronavirus Chronology Volumes 1 to 3 with 1000 Charts are the daily real-time record of everything that happened with the COVID-19 pandemic from 2019 through February 2023 when the pandemic ended and the covid endemic phase started (COVID-19 now behaves like the regular flu). It is not revisionist history like the other covid books.

K E Stone, Keystone, wrote 103 articles and provided 1000 charts during the COVID-19 pandemic. The articles were spaced at 10-day intervals and each article included charts. Books 1 through 3.

The Coronavirus Chronology Aftermath continues to chronicle the daily covid drama during the endemic phase from February 2023 through July 2025. Book 4.

The Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text is the condensed text from the first three volumes for a quicker more streamlined read. The 1000 charts and detailed descriptions for each chart are not included in the abridged text. Book 5.

The Coronavirus Chronology Charts is the compilation of the 1000 COVID-19 charts not including their detailed descriptions that appear in the first three volumes. The 103 article titles are included that provide details on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic at any point in time. The charts are self-explanatory with notations. Book 6.

The Coronavirus Chronology Conclusions and Recommendations is in editing currently and will be published in a few weeks. This will be Book 7 and the final book in the Coronavirus Chronology series.

If you are a scientist, doctor, nurse, data analyst, researcher, etc..., you will want the three-volume set since it provides the most in depth and complete picture of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the China Virus bible and historical daily record of the heinous pandemic.

The Coronavirus Chronology was written in real-time each day of the pandemic and is not massaged history from the past. It is the down and dirty facts and timeline of the global pandemic without allegiance to either corrupt US political party. The COVID-19 pandemic was a mix of medical science and political science with plenty of misinformation and disinformation spewed by the people in charge (Trump, Fauci, Biden, Collins, Walensky, Jha, etc...).

If you want an easier read that provides the big overview of the pandemic with plenty of detail on the most important events and news, read the abridged text version.

If you are a scientist or medical person, the charts book provides a quick and easy reference of the global and US covid hotspots at any time during the pandemic.

One of the reasons people are goofy nowadays is that many have never come to grips with how their lives changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We all lost loved ones and it is not the easiest thing to look back on especially if the person was very close to you.

The Coronavirus Chronology will heal your soul since you can go back and relive that period of time to get it all out of your system. Too many people have bottled-up anxieties, nervousness, and odd behavior as a result of the pandemic. It is the hope of the Coronavirus Chronology that reliving that period of time will help you heal.

Below is the TOC for the Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text available from Amazon.

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY ABRIDGED TEXT 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY ABRIDGED TEXT

ABOUT K E STONE (KEYSTONE)

COVID-19 PANDEMIC OVERVIEW

READING GUIDE

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY ABRIDGED TEXT

2019 SEPTEMBER; Nefarious Activity at Wuhan Institute of Virology in China

2019 OCTOBER; Gates Foundation “Event 201” Simulates a Global Coronavirus Outbreak

2019 NOVEMBER; First Coronavirus Illness in China

2019 DECEMBER; Chinese Doctors Muzzled by CCP

2020 JANUARY; Coronavirus Identified in United States

2020 FEBRUARY; WHO Names Coronavirus ‘COVID-19’; Fear of a Pandemic Escalates Worldwide

2020 MARCH; US and Worldwide Wave 1; Who Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic; Covid Infections Increasing Exponentially; 200K Cases in America 4.3K Dead

2020 APRIL; 250K Dead Worldwide; 50K Americans Dead

2020 MAY; Over 1.8 Million US Cases 100K Dead; US Unemployment Rate 14.7%; ‘#China Lied People Died’

2020 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 2; 10 Million Cases Worldwide 500K Dead; 3 Million Cases in America 130K Dead; New York Governor Cuomo Nursing Home Scandal

2020 JULY; Pandemic Turns Political; 800K Dead Worldwide; 150K Americans Dead

2020 AUGUST; One American Dies Every Minute; Rules Touted for Masks and Social Distancing; Telemedicine Flourishes; 970K Dead Worldwide; 195K Americans Dead

2020 SEPTEMBER; US and Worldwide Wave 3; Trump Admits to Lying About Pandemic to Avoid Creating Panic; 1 Million Dead Worldwide; 220K Americans Dead

2020 OCTOBER; Trump Hospitalized and Recovers; Trump Says ‘Learn to Live with It’; Biden Says ‘We’re Learning to Die with It’; US Exceeds 100K Cases Per Day; 1.3 Million Dead Worldwide; 240K Americans Dead

2020 NOVEMBER; One American Dies Every 30 Seconds; Trump Loses Election to Biden but Will Not Concede; US Exceeds 200K Cases Per Day; 60 Million Cases Worldwide

2020 DECEMBER; Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA Vaccinations Begin; Over 80 Million Cases Worldwide 1.9 Million Dead; Over 20 Million US Cases 380K Dead

2021 JANUARY; COVID-19 Culling the Elderly; 100 Million Cases Worldwide 2 Million Dead; 480K Americans Dead

2021 FEBRUARY; Worldwide Wave 4; 2.5 Million Dead Worldwide; 520K Americans Dead

2021 MARCH; US Wave 4; Vaccine Inequality; Blood Clots; COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Messaging Changes to ‘Preventing Hospitalization and Death’

2021 APRIL; 100 Million Americans Vaccinated; Breakthrough Cases; Pfizer Says Third Shot Needed; 3 Million Dead Worldwide; India Outbreak (Delta)

2021 MAY; Myocarditis Cases Increase; Monoclonal Antibodies (mAb) Successful Treatment; Fauci Questioned About Funding Gain of Function Research at Wuhan Labs; 3.7 Million Dead Worldwide; 600K Americans Dead

2021 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 5 (Delta); WHO Names Variants with Greek Letters; Fauci is ‘Mr Science’

2021 JULY; “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated”; Vaccine Mandates; Censorship; 80% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Overweight and Obese; 4 Million Dead Worldwide

2021 AUGUST; Vaccinated People Spreading Virus; FDA Officials Resign Protesting Rushed Booster Shots; 4.6 Million Dead Worldwide; 670K Americans Dead

2021 SEPTEMBER; Biden 6-Point Plan; Biden Blames Pandemic and Flailing Economy on Unvaccinated; 700K Americans Dead More Than 1918 Spanish Flu

2021 OCTOBER; UA and Worldwide Wave 6 (Omicron); Waning Vaccine Effectiveness; Vaccinated Versus Unvaccinated; Testosterone May Play Role in Myocarditis; ‘Disease X’; 250 Million Cases Worldwide 5 Million Dead

2021 NOVEMBER; Biden is Incompetent at Handling Pandemic Like Trump; Biden Approval Rating Plummets; 50 Million US Cases 820K Dead

2021 DECEMBER; Pfizer’s Paxlovid Pill Approved; 80% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; Breakthrough Cases Escalate; US Life Expectancy Drops from 79 to 77; UK “Partygate”; 5.5 Million Dead Worldwide

2022 JANUARY; One American Dies Every Minute; Omicron Cases Peak in US; “Flurona”; “Twindemic”; Trucker’s “Freedom Convoy”; 77 Million US Cases 930K Dead

2022 FEBRUARY; US Wave 6 “Inverted V” or “Ice Pick” Chart Pattern Ending; Russia Invades Ukraine

2022 MARCH; US Wave 7a and Worldwide Wave 7; “Deltacron”; US Vaccination Rate Plummets; China Virus Kills 6 Million Worldwide and 1 Million Americans

2022 APRIL; Omicron Subvariants; Gridiron Dinner Superspreader Event; Denmark Ends COVID-19 Vaccination Program; 500 Million Cases Worldwide 6.3 Million Dead; 80 Million US Cases 1 Million Dead

2022 MAY; Worldwide Wave 8; Breakthrough Cases Galore; One-Half of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; China in Lockdown Killing Pets as Zero-Covid Strategy Fails; North Korea Outbreak; “Pandemic Treaty”

2022 JUNE; US Wave 7b and Worldwide Wave 9; Global Cases Drop Below 500K Per Day; US Covid Deaths Drop Below 200 Per Day

2022 JULY; Pharmacists Prescribe Paxlovid; Biden Sick with COVID-19 Again and Experiences Paxlovid Rebound; Global Cases Pop Above 1 Million Per Day with 2K Deaths Per Day

2022 AUGUST; Natural Immunity Better than 2 Vaccine Doses; Censorship of COVID-19 Information; Fauci Resigns; 600 Million Cases Worldwide 6.5 Million Dead

2022 SEPTEMBER; 85% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Seniors Over 65 Years Old; Biden Stupidly Proclaims the ‘Pandemic is Over’; Global Cases Drop Below 400K Per Day with 1.3K Deaths Per Day

2022 OCTOBER; US Wave 8; Biden’s COVID-19 Deaths at 662K Are 1-1/2 Times Trump’s 441K Deaths; Fauci’s Net Worth Increases by $5 Million to $13 Million Total During Pandemic; “Tripledemic”

2022 NOVEMBER; Worldwide Wave 10; 60% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; “Pandemic of the Vaccinated”; Fauci Questioned Under Oath About the Origins of COVID-19 but “Cannot Recall”; 100 Million US Cases 1.1 Million Dead

2022 DECEMBER; 90%of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Seniors Over 65 Years Old and 15% Are Nursing Home Residents; “Pandemic of the Elderly”; “Scrabble Variants”; “Died Suddenly” Documentary; US Vaccination Rate Drops

2023 JANUARY; Fauci Finally Retires; Pfizer Executive Taped Saying Covid Vaccines Are “Cash Cows”; Global Cases Drop Below 150K Per Day; COVID-19 Transitioning from Pandemic to Endemic Phase

2023 FEBRUARY; COVID-19 Pandemic Ends and Endemic Phase Begins; Coronavirus Chronology Attacked by Censorship Again; Global Cases Drop Below 100K Per Day; 680 Million Cases Worldwide 6.8 Million Dead; 105 Million US Cases 1.16 Million Dead; One in Every 300 Americans Died from Covid During Pandemic

AAPL Apple Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing for Another Top

Apple is the latest favorite flavor. Traders circulate through the tech flavors and then circle back again. Lay down a dollar or two, and go around the bend, then come back again, for that good ole Mountain Dew. AAPL jumps +4% last week on the hype over the new foldable iPhone Duo, under development for a few years, announced by new Apple CEO John Ternusaround.

Samsung said Apple is warming their leftovers since their foldable phone has been out about 7 years. The iPhone Duo device uses a Samsung screen so they can be blamed if there is a problem with the crease. Samsung is in their 8th generation of the foldable technology telling Apple to hold my beer.

Instead of Duo they should call it Do Over. The phone may be awkward for someone with small or tiny hands like Donnie Trump. If the Duo was in Keystone's pocket, that crease and folding hinge may fill up with pocket lint, dirt and dust, pine needles, straw and hay. Do you folks really need all this fancy garbage? Good luck to you. The Dud, er Duo, is a weird name to say out loud, 'do-oh'. A duo is two, or a pair, but the phone is just a foldable screen. Fire the idiot that came up with that name. Oh, it was Tim Cook.

Since the Duo is warmed over pizza from the day before, some Apple enthusiasts may want to wait for the next version. Never buy the new model of anything. For new car designs and models, buy the third model year since the problems and kinks are worked out during the first couple years.

It is interesting that so many of you hold on to a smartphone like your adult umbilical cord. What nonsense. No wonder most people are squirrelly these days. Many of you think you are more important than you really are. As layoffs continue going forward, and your boss dropkicks you into the dumpster at the end of the parking lot, you will realize that you are not important at all.

Keystone explained the AAPL top on the weekly basis at the end of July due to the negative divergence. Price made matching and/or higher highs while the chart indicators went neggie d. The pullback occurs as forecasted but only ran for a couple weeks due to more hype about the Duo and the ongoing AI hype. Price did not even touch the middle band on the dip.

So up she goes again on the Duo hype and price is making the matching high so the indicators can be assessed. All are in neggie d so this is another top that will begin a multi-week slide for AAPL and this time it will likely be a few more weeks than a couple. Price may want to tag the upper band at 338-343 early in the week that would be great because it will firmly display the neggie d and top.

Simply watch the indicators to make sure they remain neggie d and you know the top is in on the weekly basis. On the daily chart, price came up to fill the gap at 334-337 so there may be further play here for a couple days. The 2-hour chart appears to have topped out with neggie d at the tail end of the week, now, so look for follow through to the downside tomorrow.

Keystone is not in AAPL right now long or short but obviously the play forward is to take your money and cash out if long, or go short going forward for a few weeks. Apple should have called the foldable phone "Dio" in honor of Ronnie James Dio. Rainbow in the Dark. What a voice; one of the best in rock history. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: AAPL remains buoyant at 336 with a high last week at 338 trying to touch the top band at 340 as explained above. Price is clearly at a higher high and all the chart indicators are neggie d on the weekly basis so a multi-week spankdown is on tap going forward. Apple had an event on Friday with CEO John Ternusaround greeting sycophant customers at a store. Those events do not have the pizazz from years gone by. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: Wheeee! Whoopie! The Apple party continues but when you bite into the candy apple, it is rotten. AAPL pops higher this week to 345.34 a new record high, but it was short-lived, with price now at 337. The pop in price tagged the upper band so the middle band at 313 and rising is on the table. With the new price high, ALL the chart indicators in the weekly timeframe are neggie d forecasting a multi-week top right now. Ditto the daily chart. AAPL should begin trending lower for the next few weeks but tell that to the price.

Note Added Friday Morning, 9/25//26, at 5:48 AM EST: AAPL is at 335 with traders wondering what is next. Investors are looking around at each other looking for a bigger fool. Are you it? No, are you? No, who's the bigger fool? When you look around and cannot find a bigger fool to buy your shares, you realize that you are the bigger fool.

ORCL Oracle 5-Minute Chart; Oracle Crashes -10% Intraday

The oracle is telling a sad story. The Oracle of Delphi, Pythia, was probably breathing in natty gas; she was an ancient huffer.  The Oracle above released earnings Thursday night and confetti was flying. Did you hear folks? AI is the best invention since sliced bread. Are you caught up in the hype?

ORCL flies +8% higher to 166 at the Friday open. Joe Retail, Savita Sucka, Bonita Bagholder and Sammy Sixpack were buying with both fists on the happy earnings report. The institutional money was all too glad to unload the shares on the bagholding suckers. After the first couple minutes, the joy turns to sorrow then to panic.

Oracle drops faster than a prom dress at midnight and then trails lower to 150 a near -10% intraday crash (in only 6-1/2 hours). Bonita and Savita complain that they are the bagholdin' sucka's. The oracle could not even predict such a faceplant after the confetti party. Everyone is Hardwired to be bullish these days addicted to the AI hype. Not too many folks have heard Stephen Wilson Jr. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: Oracle is at 147.61 sitting on the 20-day MA at 149.41. The 50-day MA is at 141.00. Oracle bulls win big above 149.41 and especially if the 200-day MA is taken out at 165.47. Bears win big if price slips below 149.41 and then if it loses 141.

BLS Inflation and GTX Commodities Index (Goods Inflation) Charts Tracking in Lock-Step Until the US Mid-Term Election Season

The BLS inflation chart matches the GTX commodities chart, a reflection on goods inflation, lock-step, well, until the last 4 months. Something is fishy (light blue box). Keystone smells a rat but there is so many of them it is hard to tell them apart. It is the election silly season so the republocrats and demopublicans are playing their typical corrupt baby games.

The Bidenflation during the COVID-19 pandemic was horrible but prices came back down to stabilize sideways remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of +2% inflation per year. Common folks can handle +2% a year but anything higher causes family budgets to tighten.

Sleepy Joe Biden, the dementia-ridden Alzheimer's patient, was sent packing when King Donnie Chumpski was elected in November 2024. The orange head takes office in January 2025 with inflation data remaining in a sideways posture. Inflation clearly bumps higher due to Trumpski's tariff policies but then moderates. The killer is the Iran War that King Donnie alone decreed. Donnie's war against Iran boosted inflation that never looked back.

You can see the great correlation between the GTX index and the BLS inflation numbers. Trump's war sends oil prices higher screwing common Americans already experiencing an affordability crisis. Donnie promised to lower prices from day one but it was just another campaign lie like stopping the Ukraine War in 24 hours and releasing all the Epstein files. Trumpski's latest false promise is to hand everyone a $5,000 dollar check but only if they vote for republicans. Bribery is cool again in 2026.

The Iran War mess continues and Donnie admits that he is in a holding pattern for the mid-term elections (making decisions based on politics rather than doing what is right to rectify the situation in the Middle East). He is golfing in Ireland today. People forgot about how incompetent Trump was at handling the COVID-19 pandemic stupidly shutting down the entire US economy and schools. Then saying the covid pandemic was almost over and "rounding the corner" for six months until he got COVID-19 and almost died. That is the key reason he was voted from office; incompetence at handling the pandemic. Fast forward to 2026 and you have the same inept manager now involved in a planetary war of his choosing. Good luck.

The GTX chart and BLS inflation chart move in lock-step after the Iran War begins. Oil prices jump higher impacting gasoline prices at the pump as well as the movement of all goods and services. Inflation, now dubbed Trumpflation, juts higher with oil prices. Then King Donnie proclaims that the Iran War will end and ceasefire and peace negotiations are underway (with radical terrorists that everyone knows, except the orange-headed idiot, will not honor any agreement). Oil prices plummet on the Iran War happy talk with WTIC crude dropping to 67 but then the MOU (memo of understanding) agreed to with murderers and terrorists falls apart as everyone expected except Chump. Oil prices jump higher again during July, August and September, and over one hundo per barrel the last couple days.

However, look at the inflation chart. The last 3 readings are +3.5%, +3.4% and +3.4%. Flat and you can say with an ever so slight downward bias. Huh? Come on now. Who's fudging the numbers in the backroom at the BLS? Come on, come clean about your nefarious deeds playing games with the numbers. It smells a lot like the data is kept benign ahead of the election (to not destroy republican hopes) and then magically after the election revisions will occur showing inflation far higher.

This will not be surprising since America is a faux free market crony capitalism system. Capitalism does not exist. If you finally face the truth, everything will make a lot more sense to you. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business textbooks and not in practice because of human greed (corruption) and non-transparency. It is easy to understand. Vote "none of the above" for the election.

The commodities in the GTX index are listed on the chart with everything headed higher even though the BLS says inflation is in a flat to downside bias. What are they smoking? Keystone was at the Westmoreland County Fair in Pennsylvania recently viewing the livestock. There are so many magnificent animals. When will we know the truth behind the blue boxes? The Animals. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: The GTX is at 6227 after printing a high at 6376 last Tuesday. Americans are getting pummeled by gasoline and food prices but King Donnie says it is no big deal because they are rising "only a little bit." Spoken by an orange-headed rich kid that was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Out of touch Trumpski just like Biden.

UTIL or DJU Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Death Cross

The utes print a death cross with the 50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA. If the death cross remains in play, it forecasts worse times ahead. Typically, after a stock or index creates a death cross it will actually bounce. It takes many weeks for a ticker to roll over so once the death cross occurs, it is time for a relief rally.

As price rallies, that is the judgement going forward depending on if it rolls over to the downside after the relief rally remaining in the death cross, or, if it can negate the death cross and save the day with a golden cross.

It is a very bad omen for utilities to lead the stock market lower. It typically means the pullback in the stock market will not be a run of the mill selloff instead it will be a significant double-digit drop perhaps even a crash. Keep a hairy eyeball on the utilities going forward. Beady Eye. The more you have, the more you can lose. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: UTIL 1069. It is time to gird your loins.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Island Reversal; Traders Await Inflation Data on Friday Morning 9/11/26

Stocks take the pipe the last 4 days with a couple gap-down moves. Today a gap-down occurs from 7635-ish down to 7600 back down through the gap-up at the start of August that created the green island. The island has mountains and valleys and even a coconut tree but the bulls jump off the island creating the island reversal pattern.

Price makes the lower low so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential positive divergence. The stochastics are possie d and oversold agreeable to a bounce. Ditto the money flow that is flat but good enough for possie d. The RSI, MACD and histogram, however, remain weak and bleak wanting to see more lower lows in price going forward on the daily basis.

However, the hyped up inflation data at 8:30 AM EST rules the roost and held back stocks from dropping like rocks since major metrics gave way today (volatility, chips, copper and banks although the banks recovered in the final minutes).

Price tags the lower band so it is open to moving higher to the middle band, that is the 20-day MA at 7692. This would seal up the two gaps left behind over the last two days and would actually be advantageous for bears to button everything up at the top as they move lower.

Donnie Chump's Iran War is a mess with WTIC oil running above 104 a short time ago. Trumpski is yucking it up, joking around, and seeking adoration, at a campaign rally this evening while Americans are raped at the gasoline pump and grocery store. He is a rich guy that has not been in a grocery store in 30 years. The idiot orange head does not know what he is doing, had and has no plan with his Iran War, and states a while ago that he is making military decisions based on the mid-term elections. At least he admits to his ineptness.

The orange-headed idiot is bribing Americans to vote republican, if so, he will provide a $5K check. It is hilarious. Paying people to vote a certain way is illegal. With his corporate takeovers and now easy money stimulus, King Donnie is King Socialist. He is a real estate guy that worships debt. Trumpski practices socialism and at the same time denigrates socialism. All you can do is mock it. You are watching the final throes of crony capitalism filth, why would you want to save this pig slop?

The inflation data will probably adjust the chart so take a look at it after the cash open tomorrow. Price could not hold the 50-day MA at 7604 so it is key resistance. The SPX likes to recover off the 100-day MA now at 7491 a lot during down drafts. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was barred from attending the 911 celebrations, if stocks collapse after the inflation data, the 7491-ish level is likely a good spot to bounce from for the daily time frame.

Wait for the data that is less than 12 hours away. Oliver's Army is on the island and is now pressed into service to help with the Iran War and relations with Asian nations. Oliver's Army is on their way. Elvis can save the day and put the world right. He warned about London full of Arabs 50 years ago. Too late now. Muslim folks are okay, like anyone else, but radical Islamists are sick religious fanatics that want to murder you. All Muslims are not radical Islamists, not by any stretch, but all radical Islamists are Muslims. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: The SPX bounces, not so much on the inflation data since it was as expected, but instead happy Iran War talk that Arabian leaders will gather together this weekend or Monday to try and resolve or tone down the Middle East violence brough on by the war. Oil prices immediately retreat so stocks rally. It is that simple. Late day, news hits that the Saudi pipeline that was used to boost oil flow across land instead of the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a missile and shut down. A few people are killed. WTIC oil pops back above one hundo and the SPX pulls back about 20 points off the day's highs. Oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up. The SPX gaps-up on the happy talk with the bulls jumping back onto the island to retrieve more coconuts. The 20-day MA resistance is 7685 and the 50-day MA support is 7607. Price is at 7657. Bulls win big above 7685. Bears win big below 7607. Everything in the middle is noise. Oil prices control the show.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Historic Long-Term Stock Market Top At Hand

The historic stock market multi-month and likely multi-year top is so close you can taste it but the MACD line continues to hold the cards for when it will lock-in. As in battle, you wait until you can see the white of their eyes. In trading, you wait until you see the neggie d with the MACD.

As price prints matching or higher highs on the monthly basis, the chart indicators are all negatively diverged except for the MACD line. It likes to bring up the rear during tops. The MACD is in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down so the SPX monthly chart can be topped out right now, with the MACD simply falling lower from here forward.

Ideally, you want to see the neggie d. Price has made the matching high, so it is all about the slope of the MACD line in that blue circle. There are 17 trading days remaining in September so that is a lot of time for negativity to show its face and beat stocks lower. That action will cause the MACD to slope down and at the end of this month the neggie d would be firmly locked into place and she is officially cooked for the multi-month and multi-year time frame. You wonder how far down she will fall once the drop begins. Utilities are leading lower and that is an extremely bad vibe that places a significant drop (crash) on the table.

The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 6740 is on the table as well as the lower band at 5434. Look at that volume from last month. Stocks print the historic all-time record high with lower volume levels not seen since 2024. That is the smart money selling to Jolina Sucka and Bobby Bagholder. 6K may act like a magnet going forward, and the lower band and 50-week MA are coming up that way for a confluence with that price S/R from late 2024.

Keep your eye on the MACD. The historic multi-month, and likely multi-year, top is in right now, or within a month or so. Blow on it and it will likely collapse. The pesky MACD does not want to give up the ship but it is already pushed into the ceiling and can only fall from there. Plan accordingly. This is the type of top where your 401k will be a 201k a year or two from now. The bulls are trying to hold on as the bears say Wake Me Up When September Ends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26: If stocks become soggy, watch the MACD line above. It is fun watching this historic top form and exhaust itself in real-time. 

Note Added Friday, 9/11/26: Whoopsies daisies. The MACD on the SPX monthly is now sloping lower; negative divergence locking in the historic multi-week and multi-year top. The bulls have the remaining 14 trading days in September to rally stocks and push the MACD higher again to prevent the collapse into long-term stock market Hell. If we are at 9/30/26, in 3 weeks, and the MACD locks in the neggie d, it is over folks on a long-term basis. If you are long, you will lose your shirt and be wearing a barrel. This is fun. Always remember, Don't Panic.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: The SPX bounces on Iran War happy talk that sends oil prices lower. That MACD is a temperamental little b*stard now sloping a hair higher after Friday's orgy. The monthly chart will need to play out for the whole month to see if the neggie d on the MACD can be locked-in so the long-term top can be called once and for all. You have to wait until you see the whites of their eyes. You know what to watch. Realize that you are witnessing a significant long-term top occurring. It is only a matter of when the actual top-tick occurs (it may be in place now or within days at most a few weeks). The all-time high at 7817 may be the long-term top on 8/13/26 now a month in the rearview mirror. Do not wait for the top. Scale out of long positions now and going forward since you know what is coming.

XLF Financials ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upward Sloping Channels

Bank runs are bad. But the recent US bank run is a different animal; it is a joyous bull rally. In 3 months, the financials (banks, insurers, etc..) catapult higher from 50-ish to 58-ish, a 16% orgy rally. Bank stocks gain over +1% per week for over 3 months. It's time for another $4K custom-tailored Armani suit and fancy lunch in Manhattan.

However, no one ever promised you a Rose Garden, and along with the sun, a little rain has to fall some time, as Lynn sings. When Grandma would complain to Grandpa about needing one thing or another, Grandpa would shrug his shoulders and say, "Liz, I never promised you a rose garden," and then he would play the song on the hi-fi stereo. We would laugh. People expect too much from each other nowadays. Relax, and enjoy the ride.

The banks are cooked on the weekly basis. Price prints the matching or higher high and all the chart indicators are in negative divergence (red lines). She's out of gas and there is no fuel remaining in the tank. The MACD over the last couple weeks points higher but you can see the neggie d in place over the last 1-1/2 years. That may create a jog move (down-up) but the top will be in place anytime now or within the coming days or week or two.

Banks will then retreat for multiple weeks. The upper band was violated so a trip back to the middle band, same as the 20-wk MA at 54.53, is on the table. That would be an -8% drop. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Plan accordingly.

The 2-leg bull flag played out in textbook fashion off the March bottom. The first leg is 48 to 53 so that is a difference of 5 points. The sideways consolidation occurs forming the flag with the slight bias lower. It is textbook. Then the second leg begins at 51 so adding 5 is a 55-56 target that is easily achieved and price did not stop there. XLF kept on running higher but now runs into the brick wall of neggie d.

Keystone is not in XLF long or short but obviously the play forward is to build a short position for the multi-week pullback at hand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26: Whoopsies daisies. XLF falls -1.4% to 57.30 that should be the start of a multi-week neggie d spankdown. The 50-day MA at 56.93 is important since it matches price S/R. The 57 is the line in the sand where bad things happen if price slips below. Treasury Secretary Bessent is cocky mouthing off that the BOJ is under his control so much for independent central banks. Japan owns a boatload of US debt so Bessent feels an urge to act like daddy. He dares the market to test his actions proclaiming, "I am the house now." Traders will test Bessent. He is on the other side of the street now. When he makes such a statement, traders are going to push him and see if he backs-up what he says, or, if he is an empty suit like Donnie Chump, all hat and no cattle. Okay Bessent, let's see what ya got.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: XLF 57.25. The neggie d spankdown in the weekly time frame has started. The bears left behind a gap. The expectation is for banks to trail lower for a few weeks forward. Keystone is not in the banks long or short right now but obviously short is the path forward.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: XLF is at 55.86 receiving the start of the neggie d spankdown.  

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: XLF is puking its guts out, driving the porcelain bus, dropping down to 54.54.

The Keystone Speculator's Labor Market (Jobs) Indicator; US LABOR RECOVERY NOW 3 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

The US Monthly Jobs Report is signaling joy and a labor recovery now 3 months along. The labor recession started on 9/8/23 and ran for 34 months, and no one noticed, until 7/3/26 when the labor recovery started. The employment for the data centers bumps the jobs numbers higher although the path forward is sketchy since communities across America are shouting "NIMBY" and "BANANA!" 'Not in my backyard' and 'build absolutely nothing anywhere not anytime'.

A manufacturing recession was in progress for a couple years, along with the housing recession and labor recession, but this sogginess was not enough to tip the US into an overall recession because the AI hype and consumer spending by the wealthy class, that raped the financial system for all it is worth over the last six decades, negate the recession risk. These are not your grandfather's markets. Manufacturing jobs have steadily increased for a few months, mainly due to data centers, painting a bright future ahead, if you ignore the NIMBY crowd.

Keystone is a retired chemical engineer, one of the many hats, and folks should not be afraid of the data centers. The data center negative hype is embellished to pull in eyeballs to the cable news outlets so they can increase viewership and allow them to charge higher advertising rates. Money controls everything. Most of the time, the lip-gloss beauties do not believe what they are reading out of the teleprompter.

The data centers will pull a lot of electricity from the grid unless they are built on top of natural gas reserves and then they can place a gas turbine plant to generate their own electric and feed excess juice back into the grid. Otherwise, the facilities will draw power and there has to be safeguards to make sure the greedy b*stards foot the bill themselves.

On water, the closed cooling loops do conserve water but there is evaporative losses, and the system needs charged with new water each time it is taken down for maintenance or to fix something. Again, the water situation should not be a big deal as long as the tech companies pay the freight. Water can also be brought in on tank trucks; that is done for closed oil loops.

The data center may have square-shaped cooling towers on the roof, many regular buildings do, and this is no biggie. You will see water vapor rising from these units that is water lost that the system will have to make up. Noise should be the major focus and also security plans because you can see that a drone can be flown into the data center and cause lots of damage and downtime. We are now in the new Drone Warfare Age.

As long as the data centers go into old steel mill sites, industrial sites and old power plant sites, no harm no foul. They will be less pollutive and noisy than the old plants and the properties will already be zoned properly. Residential homes will be a distance away so noise should not be an issue at old industrial sites. Data centers in rural areas are a problem. You do not want the quiet serene forest ruined by a constant hum. Screw that. Keep the rural areas zoned agricultural so they cannot build on them. From spending years around big fans, pumps and other equipment, Keystone is deaf in one ear and can't hear out of the other.

Big earthen barriers can be erected around a data center to send noise upwards instead of out across the land and towards residential homes. Shrouds and enclosures can be placed around noisy pumps and fans to mitigate noise. Greedy companies are not going to do this work voluntarily because these noise mitigation efforts will cost millions of dollars. They must be forced to by the local communities. Focus on the decibel readings at various distances from the data center to see if those intentions are met after the facility is operating.

Bigger minds will have to figure out how to protect data centers from drone attacks. Just think, all this effort and money to build data centers that can be destroyed in seconds with a drone.

Anyhoo, this is about jobs so back on track. The US labor recovery should continue. For the next US Monthly Jobs Report, an unemployment rate of 4.3% would be needed on 10/2/26 to flip the situation negative and begin a new labor recession. The housing recession turned into a housing recovery this year but that only ran for 5 months and flipped back into a housing recession. You can scroll back to study that chart.

Thus, if the unemployment rate comes in the same at 4.1%, or even higher at 4.2%, on 10/2/26, the labor recovery will continue to chug along. A rate of 4.3% would be very bad news and probably the early warning shot that the economy may start falling apart. So be there or be square on 10/2/26. May as well since Palisades Park will be closed for the season.

In four weeks, the answer will be known on the path forward for jobs and the labor recovery in progress and it likely depends on the progression of the data center build-out.