The historic stock market multi-month and likely multi-year top is so close you can taste it but the MACD line continues to hold the cards for when it will lock-in. As in battle, you wait until you can see the white of their eyes. In trading, you wait until you see the neggie d with the MACD.
As price prints matching or higher highs on the monthly basis, the chart indicators are all negatively diverged except for the MACD line. It likes to bring up the rear during tops. The MACD is in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down so the SPX monthly chart can be topped out right now, with the MACD simply falling lower from here forward.
Ideally, you want to see the neggie d. Price has made the matching high, so it is all about the slope of the MACD line in that blue circle. There are 17 trading days remaining in September so that is a lot of time for negativity to show its face and beat stocks lower. That action will cause the MACD to slope down and at the end of this month the neggie d would be firmly locked into place and she is officially cooked for the multi-month and multi-year time frame. You wonder how far down she will fall once the drop begins. Utilities are leading lower and that is an extremely bad vibe that places a significant drop (crash) on the table.
The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 6740 is on the table as well as the lower band at 5434. Look at that volume from last month. Stocks print the historic all-time record high with lower volume levels not seen since 2024. That is the smart money selling to Jolina Sucka and Bobby Bagholder. 6K may act like a magnet going forward, and the lower band and 50-week MA are coming up that way for a confluence with that price S/R from late 2024.
Keep your eye on the MACD. The historic multi-month, and likely multi-year, top is in right now, or within a month or so. Blow on it and it will likely collapse. The pesky MACD does not want to give up the ship but it is already pushed into the ceiling and can only fall from there. Plan accordingly. This is the type of top where your 401k will be a 201k a year or two from now. The bulls are trying to hold on as the bears say Wake Me Up When September Ends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26: If stocks become soggy, watch the MACD line above. It is fun watching this historic top form and exhaust itself in real-time.
Note Added Friday, 9/11/26: Whoopsies daisies. The MACD on the SPX monthly is now sloping lower; negative divergence locking in the historic multi-week and multi-year top. The bulls have the remaining 14 trading days in September to rally stocks and push the MACD higher again to prevent the collapse into long-term stock market Hell. If we are at 9/30/26, in 3 weeks, and the MACD locks in the neggie d, it is over folks on a long-term basis. If you are long, you will lose your shirt and be wearing a barrel. This is fun. Always remember, Don't Panic.
Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: The SPX bounces on Iran War happy talk that sends oil prices lower. That MACD is a temperamental little b*stard now sloping a hair higher after Friday's orgy. The monthly chart will need to play out for the whole month to see if the neggie d on the MACD can be locked-in so the long-term top can be called once and for all. You have to wait until you see the whites of their eyes. You know what to watch. Realize that you are witnessing a significant long-term top occurring. It is only a matter of when the actual top-tick occurs (it may be in place now or within days at most a few weeks). The all-time high at 7817 may be the long-term top on 8/13/26 now a month in the rearview mirror. Do not wait for the top. Scale out of long positions now and going forward since you know what is coming.
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