UST10Y US 10-Year Note Yield Daily and Weekly Chart; Daily Time Frame Topped-Out with Neggie D; Weekly Time Frame Wants Another Higher High

The Treasury yields are all the rage nowadays. The US 10-year yield chart above is catapulting to the moon which is another market oddity since Pope Powell just cut rates by 50 bips. Are yields climbing because people think the economy is growing and will expand going forward, or, are traders worrying about the US debt and realizing that America's crony capitalism system in in its last throes? The US presidential election creates additional drama.

Keystone called the bottom in the 10-year yield in September. It was easy. The green lines show the falling wedge pattern that is bullish. The lower band was violated so a move higher to the middle band, at a minimum, was on the table and voila, it occurs, then yield tags the top band all the way up. The green lines show positive divergence across all chart indicators so yield was on the launch pad ready for a possie d rocket ride higher. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a bounce. Boom. The ignition occurs and yield takes off higher on the possie d fuel. It's not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

So the next question is where is the top. On the daily chart, it is today. Note how yield came up to 4.34% and when it did, the red lines show all the chart indicators in negative divergence. She's out of gas. Since there is no longer any chart indicator fuel to take yield higher, it will receive a neggie d spankdown.

The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 4.08% and rising is on the table. The 200-day MA at 4.18 is sturdy support for yield and note that if yield continues lower, and the middle band higher, there may be a confluence setting up around 4.18%. This may be the downside target for the multi-day weakness ahead.

Remember, technical trading is playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not vertical space. Whazzat? The daily chart above is cooked as shown by the rising red wedge, upper band violation, overbot conditions and neggie d. That means yields are done going up. You would be an idiot to say that. First of all, you should never provide a forecast unless it has a time component attached. That way, you cannot weasel out of a bad call.

Yes, the daily chart above for the 10-year yield is cooked; stick a fork in it. However, look at the weekly chart; it is not in neggie d. What does that mean? What do you think? It means that yield still has legs to move higher on the weekly basis after the weakness and neggie d spankdown plays out on the daily basis.

Taking a look at the weekly chart, yield is moving higher but the ROC is neggie d. Also, the stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are always the life of the party, thus, these two parameters on the weekly chart will conspire with the universal weakness on the daily chart to send yields lower for multiple days, perhaps a week or two, or even a month (possie d on the daily chart will tell you when a future bottom occurs like Aug-Sept so there is no need to guess), but once that is played out, the weekly chart wants to see another matching or higher high in yield due to the long and strong RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics.

The RSI and histo are flattening out so they should set up with neggie d over the coming days, but the MACD may need a couple weeks to set up with neggie d and call the top on the weekly basis. Mixing all this together, yield should move lower for a few days or week or two but come back up for more highs again a couple weeks out. The significant top in the 10-year yield will likely occur in November and then a multi-week down move in yields will begin. You do not have to guess; simply watch the charts.

The 50-wk MA is 4.17% another data point in the confluence area of 4.18%. A multi-day pullback is on tap perhaps taking yields down to 4.18%-ish, then come back up because the weekly chart is long and strong. At that time, if the weekly chart is neggie d across all chart indicators, the multi-week top for the 10-year yield will be in place. Keystone is not playing any Treasuries or derivatives long or short currently in this arena. AC/DC played a lot of arenas and, like the bond traders, and Angus, are Thunderstruck at the up in yields. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: As the charts showed, yield made another high/s on the weekly basis then promptly received the neggie d spankdown with the MACD line flattening. Yield is at 4.17% sticky at the 50-wk MA at 4.19% so the pivot from here is key. The 20-wk MA is at 4.04%. The daily chart is trying to steady itself for a bottom but the MACD line keeps moving lower wanting lower lows in yield on the daily basis. 4.10% is strong support from October, ditto 4.02%. The 4.02%-4.04% support is critical because if it fails, the 10-year yield will likely drop to 3.60%. The 200-day MA is 4.21% and the 50-day MA is 4.18% that yield cannot hold ahead of the weekend.