by K E Stone
It is 10 days since the Coronavirus Archive Article 2 explaining the ongoing global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This article on 4/3/20 is the third in a series that can serve as an archive for future researchers interested in studying the coronavirus pandemic in real-time. K E Stone published the first article on 3/15/20 which uses the China virus data, the only information available at that time, to project the virus infection path ahead for the United States. The second article was published 10 days later on 3/24/20 which uses the more reliable Italy data to project the path ahead for America. This third article in the series further refines the projected coronavirus infection path ahead for the United States and the news is grim.
The charts above are provided by Worldometer doing a great job with the coronavirus statistics. The charts are annotated by Keystone.
There is now far more data available from many nations as the pandemic increases around the globe. Dirtbag Dictator Xi will likely have murdered millions of humans, like his predecessors, by the time the full story is written about China's biological virus weapon that was accidentally, or intentionally, released on the world. The 'China Lied, People Died' catch-phrase has gone viral on Twitter under the hashtag #chinaliedpeopledied. Lushsux provides a great picture of Dictator Xi and his green virus face.
In the Wuhan province, all 14 crematoriums are running 24/7 and they are no longer just burning garbage--they are burning bodies. The communists are sweeping the pandemic under the oriental rug. Another key Chinese doctor blowing the whistle on the virus in the early stages has gone missing. Of course she has. She's probably eating a bullet now. China is unable to find patient zero which is typically not that difficult of a task for any pandemic. The ground zero patient will likely never be identified because the virus was a bioweapon and likely infected a dozen people or so initially and branched out from there. Of the 41 original patients, 13 never had contact with each other. It makes you wonder if some of the virus is airborne. Never trust a communist; they will slit your throat while you sleep. Perhaps China developed the virus to unleash it in Hong Kong to stop the protests. At the same time it would be a signal to Taiwan (that does not want to be part of China) to stay in line.
This article three in the coronavirus series further refines the Keystone model to project the path ahead for the US and it is not pretty. The United States is descending into Hell right now and you are about to see some very ugly stuff over the next three weeks.
Sadly, the top in the Italy active daily case bell curve chart is coming slower than originally projected on the sketchy China data. The good news is that Italy is peaking out right now with its active cases so hang in there folks. Italy will notice that things are slightly better come next weekend and will notice things dramatically better as subsequent days and weeks play out. The behavior in Italy means the US will likely endure more pain than was projected in the second article.
Other global nations are generally comparable in geographical size so this does not impact modeling to any great extent, however, the United States is a large nation and it is already seen that the pandemic will be more of a rolling phenomenon through the country. The New York/New Jersey area can be thought of as one region such as a country like Italy or the Wuhan region in China, where the virus began. So as the virus moves off the East and West Coasts it will no doubt roll into the Midwest heartland of the US and this will require more time than the other nations have been experiencing.
Before highlighting The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model, data is provided from key areas such as China, that created this global catastrophe, South Korea and Italy.
China
1/22/20 Begin (this is where a handful or couple dozen cases exist)
2/9/20 Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (1/31/20 thru 2/18/20; average day 2/9/20; peak day 2/4/20) (15 days)
2/17/20 Number of Daily Active Virus Cases Peak (Top of Bell Curve) (11 days; 26 days cumulative; bell curve peaks 8 days after average day and 13 days after the peak day in daily cases)
3/2/20 Number of Active Virus Cases Drop by One-Half Off Peak (14 days; 40 days cum.)
3/28/20 Basic Services Restored with Limitations (Some buses operating, some stores open, cinemas and events with large crowds remain closed and cancelled) (26 days; 66 days cum.)
4/8/20 Projected Date (provided by the commie government) to Lift Wuhan City Ban of Population Movement (this date may be unrealistic as China fears a secondary virus wave will occur due to infected travelers entering the area) (11 days; 77 days cum.; the saga lingers on for three months and more)
South Korea
2/18/20 Begin (South Korea conducts a massive and quick testing campaign)
3/2/20 Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (2/27/20 thru 3/7/20; average day 3/2/20; peak day 3/3/20) (13 days)
3/11/20 Number of Daily Active Virus Cases Peak (9 days; 22 days cum.; bell curve peaks 9 days after average day and 8 days after the peak day in daily cases)
4/3/20 Projected Number of Active Virus Cases Drop by One-Half Off Peak (23 days; 45 days cum.)
4/29/20 Projected Basic Services Restored with Limitations (26 days; 71 days cum.)
5/9/20 Projected Lift to Population Movement Ban (11 days; 82 days cum.)
Italy
2/25/20 Begin (Chinese visit Italy during their New Year holiday spreading the virus around the wealthy northern regions such as Milan)
3/26/20 Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (3/18/20 thru 4/3/20; Italy's daily number of cases are leveling off choppy-sideways for 16 days and counting; average day 3/26/20; peak day 3/21/20) (30 days)
4/8/20 Projected Number of Daily Active Virus Cases Peak (13 days; 43 days cum.; bell curve peaks 13 days after average day and 18 days after peak day in daily cases)
5/1/20 Projected Number of Active Virus Cases Drop by One-Half Off Peak (23 days; 66 days cum.)
5/27/20 Projected Basic Services Restored with Limitations (26 days; 92 days cum.)
6/7/20 Projected Lift to Population Movement Ban (11 days; 103 days cum.)
Spain
3/5/20 Begin
3/31/20 Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (3/23/20 thru projected 4/8/20 or longer; Italy is leveling off for 16 days and counting); projected average day 4/1/20 or longer; peak days 3/26/20 and 4/1/20) (26 days)
4/19/20 Projected Number of Daily Active Virus Cases Peak (based on 18 days after 4/1/20)
5/12/20 Projected Number of Active Virus Cases Drop by One-Half Off Peak (generally, Spain is about 1-1/2 week behind Italy)
The coronavirus tragedy began in China. As the above data shows, the Wuhan region is coming out of the mess but greatly worried that a secondary wave will occur. This verifies that the COVID-19 nightmare will continue on for many months maybe a year or two. Perhaps indefinitely? South Korea is emerging from the coronavirus pandemic like China. Italy is peaking with its bell curve right now and the number of active cases will peak and begin to decrease in the days ahead. Spain is a couple weeks behind Italy so they have more pain ahead for a few extra days as compared to Italy. Spain will see the virus peak and begin to subside over the next week or so if they can maintain their protocols.
Ditto France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Norway, and Denmark. These European nations are in the heat of the fight now but should peak out on their bell curves with active cases within two or three weeks. Australia may be coming out of the worst of it as well.
The news is not good for several countries including the US. America, Canada, Israel, Sweden, Poland, Ireland and Brazil are all headed for deeper trouble and will not peak until after greater Europe peaks. Russia is likely heading towards disaster as well but, like China, the communists do not openly communicate their data. Japan also faces a fight ahead and is another dishonest country in data reporting. Japan swept the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster under the rug by forcing doctors to report deaths as general cancer and other causes instead of radiation poisoning. Isn't it a wonderfully corrupt planet we live on? India data is also sketchy as they will head into the coronavirus nightmare in the weeks and months forward.
The bloodbath ahead is for the US, UK, Iran and Philippines. These countries will be hit hard by the virus now and dominate the news headlines during April. It is difficult to find news on the Philippines but there will likely be many stories written this month as the situation becomes bloody at that multi-island nation. Dictator Duterte already instructed police to shoot anyone that becomes unruly during the lockdowns.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model identifies the begin date as the time when a handful to a couple dozen virus cases appear in a country, city or region. The virus situation only becomes worse and more tragic each day that the daily cases increase in any region. There is no hope until the daily cases level off.
The key variable is when the daily cases level off and this typically occurs 30 days after the start of the pandemic (represented by the average day of the leveling off range). The peak in the daily active cases bell curve occurs about 2 weeks after the average leveling-off day. The peak in the daily active cases bell curve also occurs about 18 days after the peak day within the leveling-off cluster.
When the daily cases begin leveling off, it proves that the mitigation efforts are working (President Trump, where's the masks? Wake up. Let's try to stop this virus). As the number of cases level off, this places less strain on the hospitals. The number of intensive care cases will back away and deaths will decrease but none of this happens until the number of daily cases level off and then a couple weeks later the bell curve of active cases will peak out and roll over.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model projects the advancement of the virus as follows. From the 'begin' day, the average day that cases are leveling off is 4 to 5 weeks later and then 2 to 3 weeks after that the peak in the active cases bell curve occurs. It then takes another 3 weeks for the active cases to be reduced by one-half off the peak. After that, when everyone knows the worst is over, it takes another 4 weeks to open up society in a limited and careful fashion to prevent a second wave. Then, the total relaxation of all travel bans and a return to normalcy occurs 2 weeks later all though this is not even proven as yet by the corrupt Chinese data.
Thus, for modeling purposes, for any region exposed to China's deadly COVID-19 virus,
Begin (0 weeks)
Average Day of Daily Cases Leveling Off Occurs 30 days (4 weeks)
Daily Active Virus Cases Peak on Bell Curve (2 weeks; 6 weeks cum.)
Number of Active Cases Drop by One-Half (3 weeks; 9 weeks cum.)
Basic Services Restored with Limitations (4 weeks; 13 weeks cum.)
Population Movement Ban Lifted and a Return to Normalcy (2 weeks; 15 weeks cum.)
(the last two steps may take longer than thought since China is in these uncharted waters right now)
Since the USA is large, and the epidemic will cascade across the States instead of hitting everything simultaneously like a small region or country, those time projections will have to be increased. Note that the total covid saga takes at least 15 weeks and more, 5 months, to play out and this is if a second wave of trouble does not occur. In the early 1900's flu epidemic, the second wave was the killer wave.
So there is great pain ahead for the United States and other nations mentioned above. Taking the latest projections and estimating the path forward for the US yields the following results below. This is based on the country-wide progression of the virus. New York and New Jersey are smacked hardest right now, and their pain continues, but as they emerge from the battle, other States will be descending into Hell. If the United States is treated as regions, let's call it three main areas. First, the East, West and Gulf coasts where the virus is most prevalent and beginning to move inwards. This first area includes New York, New Jersey and Louisiana. As the days and weeks play out, the virus will increase inwards to States such as Pennsylvania, Maryland and Colorado (working inwards from the coasts). Then, lastly the center heartland of the US would be the final region of infection.
So the US coronavirus tragedy may extend in time two to three times longer than other countries due to the vast geographically-populated areas. This is not good. Thus, we cannot directly project the US path ahead with the standard model numbers above since America is vast and will experience a cascading pandemic. The New York and New Jersey regions will likely not peak out on their bell curves of active cases for another two or three weeks which places States like Pennsylvania, Ohio and in the Midwest not peaking for perhaps a month or more in the future. The economy will be toast by then.
And worse, if people would relax the restrictions on daily life, it will only serve to exacerbate the epidemic or hasten the return of a second wave epidemic. Masks would help everyone but you cannot wear what is not available. The US pandemic begins early March around 3/5/20 through 3/8/20 where the cases then begin ramping dramatically higher. Adding 30 days to the begin date is 4/7/20 but it is wishful thinking that the US would be leveling off with cases in the days ahead. Nope. That is not even on the table. It's not going to happen. This gets back to the discussion about the geographical size of the US. Let's say America will require twice the amount of time to run the virus course. These projections are based on the entire country. States such as New Jersey and New York will work through the crisis first with the States toward the center of the country bearing the pain at the tail end.
United States
3/8/20 Begin
5/7/20 Projected Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (estimate 5/3/20 thru 5/14/20; estimate average day 5/7/20; estimate peak day 5/21/20) (60 days)
5/20/20 Projected Number of Daily Active Virus Cases Peak (13 days; 73 days cum.; bell curve peaks 13 days after average day)
6/12/20 Projected Number of Active Virus Cases Drop by One-Half Off Peak (23 days; 96 days cum.)
7/8/20 Projected Basic Services Restored with Limitations (26 days; 122 days cum.)
7/19/20 Projected Lift to Population Movement Ban (11 days; 103 days cum.)
Obviously, it does not look good for the United States. The projections indicate that America will not peak out in its daily active cases until early or mid-May 4 to 6 weeks away. Even after that, mayhem will still be ongoing. All you can do is pray now, and stay home.
For the State breakdown, New York and New Jersey are in the fire right now with over 35% positive test results for the virus. Louisiana is next with over 26% testing positive for covid. Out on the West Coast, California and Washington State are hanging in their with steady cases and 8% testing positive. Remember, Washington was hit first at the nursing home.
The next hot spots are Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Connecticut. This information on the States is from the Whitehouse press conference on Thursday evening, 4/2/20. Colorado, Washington, DC, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are each testing around 13% positive so they are on deck for trouble ahead. Any State not mentioned is testing at a 10% and lower positive rate so far but this will change and get worse over this month (hopefully not). April showers used to bring May flowers but now, instead, they bring the coronavirus. Keystone's a poet and he knows it.
There is lots of talk about the death rates. Do not pay much attention to this. Of course people will drop like flies especially those with respiratory illnesses, but from a modeling standpoint, the death rate is not helpful. In the end, the virus death rate will likely come in at 1% or less. There are many variables that impact the death rate such as demographics, culture, government, etc.., so simply understand that the human toll will be significant and there is nothing you can do about it.
The US remains unprepared for the coming wave of misery in April as King Donnie touts happy talk and whistles past the graveyard. UK PM Boris Johnson was cracking wise about shaking people's hands last week; this week he is steering the porcelain bus puking his guts out infected with covid.
It is shameful that after 2-1/2 months, the US president is not able to have factories running 24/7 to make masks. It is blatant incompetency. Ditto the gowns, face shields and other equipment. Some companies are stepping-up to make ventilators but the whole mess is disjointed and appears without direction despite marathon press conferences each day. President Trump begins each presser by telling everyone how good of a job he is doing as well as his daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared, neither of which were elected. After the press conference is over, medical folks parade across television screens pleading for supplies. What do you believe? Your lying eyes or Donnie?
America is unprepared for the coming exponential expansion of the virus. Trump touted Easter as the all-clear date for the US to return to normal but had to reverse course from this overly optimistic proclamation. The president was the only one in the country that thought the Easter date was realistic; the proclamation only served to dent his credibility. Trump tries to save face now calling that comment aspirational. All presidents are to blame for leaving the citizens and healthcare workers up the creek without a paddle or without a virus test. The US may not return to normal for three months beyond that Trumpian Easter date.
There are all kinds of wild remedies and cures mentioned on the internet making people more ill and sick than the actual virus so be careful. Dosing daily with vitamins C, D and A will do you good and keep your immune system healthy. Colloidal silver spray is great for the throat whenever you feel a tickle coming on but watch how much you use. Keystone has not had a cold in 30 years since colloidal silver spray always knocks it out at the onset (but everyone will have to perform their own research and decide what is good for them).
The Whitehouse is starting to tell everyone to use masks. The administration and CDC lied three months ago about the usefulness of masks because they did not want hoarding to occur. This was easy to see by anyone with a brain. They said masks are not that effective but in the next breath said to send them in to hospitals and medical facilities. Now the supplies are running low and America is heading into the storm. Lord, Have Mercy on Our Souls.
Many people are working from home but the loss of productivity becomes apparent after several days. The company that likely made out the best from this virus pandemic is Ikea. Yes, the Dutch furniture maker sold thousands of bookshelves. All the television commentators and pundits, one wanting to look smarter than the other, display bookshelves behind their little video shots complete with books they never read. Comically, the price tag of the bookshelf is seen in a couple interviews. Others, wanting to look cool in their home video conferencing, knowing that all the fools were talking in front of bookshelves, choose to appear on video with a plant to the side or perhaps a painting on the wall or even a hip sculpture that will make people think they are smart and fun to be around. Such shallow thinking is always prevalent at the end of a long-term Kondratiev Cycle. Everything is entertainment in the bread and circus days just like ancient Rome. History rhymes. The debauchery at the Colosseum is replaced with the sick verbal and sexual abuse society displays on the internet. It is all as easy to see as the nose on your face.
The virus preparedness blame game will be played-out in the future in the US with the dirtbag republocrats and demopublicans pointing fingers at one another. The dysfunction of the crony capitalism system makes you glad to see it on its last legs. After a decade or two transition to a socialist-light hybrid capitalism-like system, whatever that will be (probably following the Nordic model), America will be in a better place with fair opportunities for all citizens instead of 20 million people screwing the other 310 million in this new and sick Gilded Age.
The powerful people see the trouble coming. Look at the high-end stores that not only closed shop as per government regulations in countries around the world due to the virus but then boarded up the front of the stores with plywood. During the coming class war, the luxury stores, that cater to the elite class, will be prime targets and recipients of the bricks and rocks thrown by the huddled masses. The wealthy elite class know what is coming and are boarding up the high-end store fronts.
The news is not good for America, UK, Iran and Philippines that are now the hot zones of the COVID-19 virus. New York and New Jersey will likely peak in cases in a couple weeks but as projected above, for the United States as a whole, the peak in daily cases will not occur until early to mid-May. America has an ugly six weeks ahead and obviously the economy and markets will be permanently damaged.
The US Monthly Jobs Report is released about an hour ago. US payrolls collapse by 701K jobs. Employers did not waste anytime sh*t-canning employees. The sad fact is that many of these folks do not yet realize they will never work at that job again. The Unemployment Rate jumps from 3.5% to 4.4%. The numbers will only become worse. K E Stone wrote an article a year ago on surviving a recession which many of you may find pertinent reading these days; Clueless Millennials Must Prepare Financially, Mentally and Emotionally for the Coming Recession; A PSA (Public Service Announcement) for Millennials Explaining the Ugly Realities of Economic Recession.
Note Added 8:00 PM EST Friday Evening: President Trump holds another press conference. The Whitehouse and CDC reverse their original proclamations that masks will not do a lot for the public (but send them to hospitals right away), and now admit that the masks do help. Masks prevent breathing in of infected droplets in the air and most importantly, people that are infected with the coronavirus and do not know it (asymptomatic; no symptoms; not coughing; not sneezing) will not spread their dirty covid germs all over the place. King Donnie makes this important announcement about masks but in the same breath says he does not plan to use a mask (Trump views wearing a mask as a sign of weakness rather than prevention). Pause for laughter while staring this escalating tragedy in the face. You cannot make the stuff up. The leader of the country, that is now under siege by the Chinese covid virus, which will decimate people over the next 6 weeks, tells citizens that a mask is recommended but he has no plans to wear one. There will be millions of Americans that follow Donnie's lead and ignore the mask recommendation. Trump is in denial about the unfolding tragedy; he thinks back to the glory days of record high stock markets and wants that life again. Sometimes you just 'can't go home again' as the Thomas Wolfe book explains. Donnie is the Herbert Hoover of our times; no one wants that moniker but history often rhymes, like now. The only reason stocks ran to record highs the last few years is because of a decade of global central banker money printing. Do you understand this fact or are you stupid? Donnie's tax cut for the wealthy helped boost stocks but the main function of that corporate socialism was to reward the wealthy class that then immediately turned around and contributed half of their tax-cut windfall to Trump's reelection campaign. This is the way crony capitalism works folks. Both parties play the same game. The republicans and democrats are two sides of the same corrupt crony capitalism coin. You do not want to hitch your wagon to either of these sick tribes. Be an independent thinker instead like the way America used to be. The Trump administration will not issue a US-wide stay-at-home order. As explained above, the virus will move towards the center of the United States from the coasts. Many of the States in the Midwest are not issuing a stay-at-home order since there are not many patients, however, the best thing they could do is issue that order to prevent the virus from devastating the heartland. Donnie does not think the stay-at-home order is necessary while his top doctor for the pandemic, Fauci, keeps telling everyone "I don't understand why" every State has not issued the stricter stay-at-home orders. Maybe Fauci should ask his orange-headed boss. In the middle of the covid nightmare, Trump fires Inspector General Michael Atkinson who flagged the whistleblower complaint to Congress that resulted in the impeachment of the president; it was payback time in the back-stabbing world of politics. Americans appear ill-prepared for the firestorm that is about to hit the States. The next 6 weeks are going to be a nightmare on Elm Street for the United States. Good luck to all. Today is the deadliest day for America. Darker days are guaranteed ahead. 1,169 people die today in the United States (total death count is above 7.4K) and over 270K are infected with the coronavirus. You ain't seen nuthin' yet.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/5/20: Today is the deadliest day for America. Darker days are guaranteed ahead. 1,344 people die today in the United States (total death count is above 8.5K) and over 312K are infected with the coronavirus. You ain't seen nuthin' yet. The news becomes more grim each day. President Trump creates more entertainment at the daily press conferences. Vice President Pence is not there; the president mentions that he is working hard and tired these days (or perhaps coming down with the virus? Pence's aid has the virus). Trump lashes out at reporters that ask questions he does not like (which continue to ask about preparedness and supplies). Trump says the country is ready so we will see if that is true during April. The coronavirus situation remains confusing with the doctors saying one thing and King Donnie another, however, the US leader may finally realize the severe gravity of the historic COVID-19 situation. The president says there "will be a lot of death." A couple weeks ago, he touted Easter as a time to ring the all-clear back-to-normal bell for the economy and markets but instead, now, Trump warns the United States that the worst two weeks of the pandemic are ahead. Medical personnel continue asking, "Where are the masks, the gowns, face shields, supplies and other equipment?" All of us will know a loved one, either a family member, extended family, neighbor or friend that will die this month of this treacherous virus. The S&P 500 Index, ticker symbol SPX, which is the United States stock market, is at 2489 trying to move above its 20-day MA resistance at 2531. The SPX all-time record high is 3393.52 and all-time record closing high is 3386.15 both printing on 2/19/20. The SPX low for the late February-March crash is 2237.40 on 3/23/20. The United States stock market crashed from 3394 to 2237, a collapse of 1157 points, a dramatic and record-breaking -34.1% crash in a stunning 23 days. That is the fastest market crash in history but it is funny how the president does not tout this record. The SPX monthly chart indicators remain weak and bleak. The SPX weekly chart indicators are more constructive and point to a bottom, on the weekly basis, over the next couple weeks. This may finally deliver the relief rally for a few weeks, as the virus situation develops, then the stock market would be expected to roll back over to the downside and take out this year's lows say a few months out (depending on how much the central banker goosing can support markets going forward). The last legitimate stock market top, and that was even bloated due to central banker largess, was the May 2015 top which is at the 2100-ish level. Today is Palm Sunday. Good Friday is this week so markets are closed on Friday. Stocks are typically positive the two days before a three-day holiday weekend. The full moon peaks 10:35 PM EST Tuesday evening and stocks are typically buoyant through the full moon each month. Thus, the background current for the stock market is positive this week from say, Tuesday afternoon into the weekend, however, that bastard coronavirus bug rules the roost. The smartest thing that King Donnie could do is walk out at the next press conference donning a mask covering the front of his orange face. President Trump should tell everyone to start wearing a mask, homemade or otherwise, and that includes himself (he can even go off on one of his self-stroking rants about how great he looks in the mask; whatever it takes). The president may be pleasantly surprised that the public would likely respond very positively to this gesture but I guess we will never know unless he does it. Humorously, he could have the presidential seal placed on the front of the mask if it makes him feel better. When you think about it, there is probably no one person, or one thing, that could ever muzzle King Donnie Jonnie. The president's handlers should tell him that the fastest way for the economy and markets to recover is if everyone wears a face mask; which is likely a true statement. Donnie donning a face mask would likely be well received by the public and if anyone could pull off the dog and pony face mask show, it is Trump, the reality television show president. Brace yourself folks. You are going to see ugly things this month. Perhaps Keystone will update the coronavirus situation with a fourth article on 4/13/20 that maintains the 10-day spacing between each missive; the articles can serve as a future archive for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Note Added 3:39 AM EST Monday Morning 4/6/20: The bulls are running as the new week of trading begins. US stock futures are up +4%. The mixed messaging continues. President Trump warned of a tragic week ahead for the US and Surgeon General Vice Admiral Jerome Adams says this week will be a "9-11 moment" and "Pearl Harbor moment" for America. Only a few hours later, Trump and Vice President Pence (who looks fine and does not appear ill), conduct a press conference and opine about one day's death rate subsiding proclaiming that the coronavirus cases are leveling off in a week and the US is "stabilizing." Go figure. That is stupid. The virus is now spreading in the United States and April will likely be a month of pain so why would the nation's leaders wax optimistic painting a rosy path ahead? It will only serve to further confuse the public. Many people, on the fence about wearing a mask due to the weekend confusion, will now not bother since Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber says the sky will be blue in a week's time. Bring up a virus map of Pennsylvania. You can see plain as day how the virus spreads. It infected the Philly and Allentown areas first on the eastern side of the state since the virus spread from New Jersey and New York. Then it appeared in Allegheny County on the western side of the state. This is where Pittsburgh is located and folks are flying in and out of that major airport so obviously the virus spreads out from there, and it is. Also, the virus spreads out from the center of the state where Harrisburg, the capital, is located. Again, lots of travelers and such so the virus spreads from there. It's not rocket science; pick up a map and study it. Talking happy talk is a disservice to the American people; instead, citizens need to be told to hunker down for the firestorm that is hitting and everyone should be wearing masks. As mentioned above, using the death rates to model the virus is a fool's errand since the sampling is so small and there are far too many variables impacting death such as age, demographics, culture, hygiene, etc... There is only one number that matter that will directly tell you if an end is in sight for the coronavirus in your region. Watch the rate of change in the new daily cases. When the daily cases level off and stop increasing that is good news since the top in the active caseload for hospitals, the peak in the bell curve, will occur in 2 to 3 weeks time. Italy is at about 18 days or so of moving choppy sideways with new cases so their bell curve should be peaking and then flattening and starting lower this week. The new cases in the United States is currently increasing! America is therefore at least 2 to 3 weeks away from a peak in the coronavirus tragedy and more likely beyond that. Who knows what Trump and Pence are thinking?.
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