By K E Stone
As of July 4th, Independence Day in the United States, communist
China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected 11.2 million people
around the world murdering 530K souls (over one half-million). 6.3 million
people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened 2.9
million Americans (0.9% of the 330 million US population approaching 1%)
murdering over 132K United States citizens. 1.2 million people have recovered.
America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (26%) of the
coronavirus cases and one-quarter (25%) of the deaths. China must pay for its
nefarious deed.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by Brazil, Russia, India, Spain, Peru, Chile, UK, Mexico,
Italy, Iran and Pakistan.
Within the United States, the greatest number of total
COVID-19 cases are in New York (41K) followed by California (252K), Texas
(190K), Florida (179K), New Jersey (176K), Illinois (147K), Massachusetts
(110K), Pennsylvania (93K), Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina,
Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Indiana, Connecticut, Alabama
and South Carolina. All 21 states are quickly approaching or over 50,000 total cases.
Arizona, California, Florida and Texas are experiencing the
fastest acceleration in cases. This weekend, 40 of the 50 states are
experiencing an increase in cases. Two are not; Nebraska and South Dakota.
Eight states are steady.
Concerning deaths in the United States, the states rank from
New York the worst at 32,191 deaths to Alabama with 1,006 deaths. All 24 states
listed have over 1,000 deaths; New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois,
Pennsylvania, California, Michigan, Connecticut, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland,
Ohio, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, North
Carolina, Washington, Mississippi, Missouri and Alabama. The Keystone Model
extrapolated the US death curve out and forecasted 125K to 130K deaths by
Independence Day which occurs.
Tragically, nursing homes, meat-packing facilities, cruise
ships, prisons, adult and child camps, water and amusement parks, the US
military and VA facilities are hit exceptionally hard by the virus. The Navajo
Nation (Native Americans), Latinos and blacks are hit proportionally harder by
the virus. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are also experiencing outbreaks.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes
and more data and information are available. This is Article 12 in the
coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This
twelfth article is published on Saturday, 7/4/20, Independence Day, a time to
reflect on the timeline of the pandemic.
The countries and US states are listed below from best to
worst based on the spread of the virus so the hot spots around the world and in
America are easily identified. The coronavirus articles are written in
real-time so it is interesting to see the progression of knowledge, thought,
hysteria and scientific information during the 2020 worldwide
coronavirus pandemic.
The health organizations (WHO, CDC and NIH), Trump
Administration and Congress continue struggling on how to handle and contain covid.
They are the blind leading the blind perpetuating the pandemic chaos and
confusion. How did America get here? Baby New Year delivered a covid turd.
On 12/31/19, WHO is informed of an outbreak of pneumonia
cases in Wuhan, China. WHO likely knew sooner and helped the communists
cover-up the initial outbreak thinking it could be contained but this can be
sorted out after the China-born pandemic is stopped.
On 1/3/20, the lying communist Chinese leadership says they
do not know the cause of the pneumonia. There ae two bioweapon facilities in the
Wuhan region experimenting with these viruses. In addition, China was aware of
laboratory test animals being sold at the food markets. The filthy communists
know exactly what is going on they simply choose to lie about it. China hoarded
medical supplies, masks, gowns, PPE (personal protective equipment) and
ventilators from global suppliers while covering-up the seriousness of the
outbreak. Never trust a filthy commie.
On 1/14/20, WHO announces that human-to-human transmission
of the virus has occurred. WHO downplays the outbreak describing the
transmission of the virus as limited.
On 1/21/20, America reports the first coronavirus case. On
1/24/20, the virus appears in Europe. China locks-down Wuhan but then permits
sick people to board planes and fly all over the world to transmit the disease.
Bastards. Communist China must pay for their deeds. On 1/27/20, WHO officials
meet with China’s dirtbag dictator Xi who obviously lies about the pandemic.
On 1/29/20, the US forms a task force to handle the
pandemic. Dr Fauci at the NIH is the head doctor in charge of informing the
president and public about the spread of the virus.
On 1/31/20, President Trump signs an executive order
blocking travel from China. The order becomes law on 2/2/20. There are
thousands of travelers that return to the states from China anyways some simply
flying to a different country first. The US declares the coronavirus pandemic a
public health emergency.
On 2/4/20, WHO begins to communicate that the virus may be
transmitted by asymptomatic people. This begins creating fear in populations
since the virus can be transmitted by people that do not even know they have
the virus.
On 2/11/20, WHO officially names the virus COVID-19.
On 2/24/20, the US stock market collapses but Trump says
everything is under control and stocks are looking like a good buy. On 2/25/20,
the first virus case appears in Africa.
On 2/26/20, community spread of the virus begins in America
with humans passing coronavirus to one another.
During February and March, the world is introduced to the
term social distancing although Asian countries are already experienced in virus-fighting
jargon. People are encouraged to wear masks and wash their hands. There are
stories that the virus may cling to cardboard and metal and may contaminate
packages. Populations begin clearing out stores of hand sanitizer, soaps, hand
wipes, masks, toilet paper, isopropyl alcohol, zinc supplements and other
items.
On 3/3/20, WHO asks all global suppliers of PPE to crank up
production. The world appears unprepared for the virus.
On 3/4/20, the US Congress passes the $8.3 billion emergency
spending bill and the president signs the package on 3/6/20.
On 3/7/20, the global cases surpass 100,000. On 3/11/20, WHO
officially calls COVID-19 a pandemic. During March and into April, the
coronavirus begins spreading out of control. Trump says the virus will go away
by April but few are buying what he is selling.
On 3/11/20, Trump bans travel from Europe to the US as
Italy, Spain and France descend into covid Hell.
On 3/13/20, Trump declares a national emergency which allows
states to access $50 billion in funding.
On 3/17/20, the Trump administration tells people to work
from home if possible and to limit travel and social gatherings. Friction
develops between Dr Fauci and Trump as the messaging about the virus appears
contradictory and confusing. Americans are confused.
In late March, the wheels begin falling off. Congress passes
a $2.2 trillion emergency funding bill that provides loans and extra benefits
to companies, workers, families and individuals. The spotlight is on the lack
of testing. The CDC botches up initial testing procedures. Trump claims
everyone can have a test for the last month but it still is not true. In
reality, you must see a doctor and jump through hoops for a test.
On 4/3/20, King Donnie proclaims that everyone should wear a
mask to help stop the spread of the virus but in the next sentence declares, “I
don’t think I’m going to be doing it.” Americans are confused.
On 4/4/20, the global cases surpass 1 million. The
infections increase by 10 times in less than a month.
On 4/12/20, Easter occurs and the pandemic is nowhere close
to over as Trump proclaimed a month earlier. During April, Pence declares that
the virus will be handled by Memorial Day.
On 4/13/20, Trump is becoming impatient seeing the economy
crater. He wants to restart the economy and clashes with Dr Fauci. Trump says
he will intervene in any state where a governor is not handling the situation
properly. Trump is sloughing off responsibility to the states so they would
take the blame as the pandemic worsens. The governors ignore Trump many stating
that the president does not have authority over the states as he claims.
On 4/16/20, the Trump administration provides guidelines on
reopening the economy. People are losing their livelihoods and desperately want
to reopen their stores and return to work. Americans have little savings which
exacerbates the societal problems. Upper middle class and wealthy folks can
easily work from home; they all own new computers with fast internet
connections. None of them miss a paycheck. However, the lower class huddled
masses are hurt worse, as usual, losing jobs and unable to pay rent or buy
food. The pandemic is developing into an economic catastrophe. The automobile
lines at food banks remain long.
On 4/21/20, immigration to the US is suspended. The
Hydroxychloroquine drug touted by Trump is found ineffective in testing of
seriously ill people. During late April, Trump is touting the odd-ball
treatments such as using disinfectants on the body. As usual, his words are
vague and some assume he is telling people to drink Lysol (do not do this it is
poison).
On 4/28/20, the US hits 1 million coronavirus cases.
Patients with respiratory ailments, diabetes and cancer are dying at a faster
rate than others.
On 5/10/20, Mother’s Day, and 5/25/20, Memorial Day, people
cannot take the confinement anymore and venture out to visit loved ones or go
to a beach (if it is open). The data shows spikes in cases a couple weeks after
these dates. Vice President Pence promised that the virus would be under
control by today, Memorial Day, but wrongo. Just like Trump was in error saying
the virus would be over by Easter (4/12/20). The handling of the situation is
looking shaky. During May and June, creepy Kushner, the president’s son-in-law,
proclaims that the virus will be gone and the economy rocking and rolling in
July. Idiots say rocking and rolling when they want to sound hip and appeal to
a younger demographic for votes.
On 6/2/20, France, Italy and Spain are through their covid
nightmare and begin slowly reopening their economies.
On 6/11/20, the US tags 2 million coronavirus cases adding 1
million in the last six weeks. The Latino and black communities are hit
proportionally harder by the virus.
During early June, the signs are encouraging that reopening
the American economy may work out okay. The virus seems to be in check,
however, the wheels fall off the cart again in mid to late June when virus
cases begin spiking in the United States. The holiday parties and beach vacations,
riots and protests in the name of social justice and looting, and reopening of
the economy, contribute to the increase in cases.
Trump blames the increase in cases on more testing which is
silly. Of course there is. The positivity rates are increasing showing that the
transmission is increasing and the higher numbers are not due solely to more
testing. The virus chaos and confusion continue as Dr Fauci and President Trump
rarely talk anymore and the task force was disbanded. People are told to wear
masks but Trump refuses to wear a mouth diaper. This is a green light for the
president’s followers to shun masks (which only serves to increase infection
rates and ultimately delay the normal functioning of the economy).
In the back half of June, the infection rates in Mexico,
Central America (Guatemala, Honduras), South America (Chile, Peru, Brazil),
Africa and South Asia (India, Bangladesh) are increasing rapidly.
On 6/24/20, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut announce
measures to quarantine any individual arriving from states with high cases. Texas,
Florida, California and Arizona are spinning out of control with new cases
setting daily records as well as in other states. The governors, some that
downplayed the pandemic a couple months ago, are now scrambling to get the
virus under control. Texas issues an order requiring all citizens statewide to
use a face covering. Texas republican Governor Abbott performs a mea culpa lamenting opening the bars and economy too fast. Abbott recloses bars and receives blowback from the republicans. Trump is not pleased at Abbott showing weakness; Donnie is all about machismo (which is turning off the middle-aged American women a voting block he needs for reelection).
The NIH, CDC and WHO organizations are each bloodied by the
bungling of the virus response. Trump’s approval ratings sag as the pandemic
motors along without any real plan to stop the disease. Leadership is absent. Politicians
do not want blamed for things since that loses elections. Citizens remain
confused since each state is doing its own thing with its own set of rules.
Trump says the virus will disappear he hopes. The leader of the Free World is
hoping the virus goes away. Hope is not a strategy.
During late June, the global coronavirus cases top 10
million and the death toll exceeds 500,000.
July arrives and the coronavirus pandemic is the worse to
date. Kushner, Trump’s skinny clingy son-in-law, said the country would be
rocking and rolling by now. Wrongo. It is not rockin’ n’ a rollin’ but it may
be rolling over. Trump was wrong that the virus would be finished by Easter.
Then Pence was wrong about it ending by Memorial Day. Now Kushner is wrong
about the virus ending by July. Three strikes and yer out using a baseball
metaphor. It is likely smart to no longer believe anything they say. It is easy to see why the president is slipping in the polls; he needs to right the ship.
King Donnie continues refusing to wear a face covering but boasts
that he has worn a mask. Trump proclaims that he looks great in a face mask
like The Lone Ranger. No Donnie, you do not. You look like an idiot with a
mouth diaper on just like everyone else. It is hilarious to see the extent of
Trump’s vanity. It’s like the ladies that refuse to cover their heads in winter
time for fear of messing up their pretty hairdo’s and then they end up getting sick.
On 7/3/20,
in the US, a dog has the virus the second recorded canine case. Man’s best
friend is sadly euthanized. President Trump conducts a campaign rally from Mt
Rushmore paid for by the taxpayers including fireworks. All the presidents pull
the same stunt claiming that events are for the good of the nation but in
reality, it is a thinly disguised campaign rally. Isn’t crony capitalism
sickening? The people in attendance are not wearing masks or socially
distancing. The mixed signals continue with the public told to wear a mask but
Trump refuses to and now he is conducting events with people throwing all
caution to the wind including social distancing. It is a strange sight. Perhaps
chalk it up to failed leadership by everyone involved? The final judgement of
the event probably depends on how many people show up sick in two or three
weeks.
The timeline
above brings the mess up to the present day; Independence Day. Six months later and we still do
not know much more about the virus than we knew at the start of the year. Mr
Sunshine, Dr Fauci, says the coronavirus may have mutated and is now more
infectious. The new mutation, however, thankfully, is not more deadly than the
original strain. This new strain may have mutated from the European strain
starting late February and this new strain dominates the outbreaks currently
ongoing around the world. The outbreak in Mexico and Central America is nasty
as if that is a stronger strain.
Fauci says
the pandemic is not under control (contradicting President Trump and Vice
President Pence’s claims that the worst is over, the virus is under control and
things are getting better all said as the new daily cases set records). Dr Birx, Dr Fauci’s
sidekick, says if you are under 40 years old and attended a gathering, go get tested. Surgeon General Jerome Adams
tells Americans to wear a mask. Former CDC head Dr Frieden declares, “We are
going in the wrong direction!”
The doctors
can sing caution until they are blue in the face because King Donnie does not
wear a mouth diaper and he encourages everyone to sit next to each other again
and carry on with life; the exact opposite message from the doctors and US
coronavirus task force that regrouped and began communicating again over the
last week. Interestingly, Trump does not explain to the American people that he is
constantly tested, daily, as is those around him, so he can afford to be looser
with mask guidelines. However, Fred Fafooshnik, that lives on 39th street near
the tracks, and does not have a medical team in tow, is walking around town
without a mask following Donnie’s lead.
Secret service agents, a campaign chair, and previous
presidential candidate Herman Cain, and others, in close physical proximity to
the president and vice president are contracting the virus. Cain became sick
after he attended the Tulsa, Oklahoma, event with the president. Strangely, a
poll indicates that over one-half the people that have or had the virus, have
no idea how they were infected. The other half are family members, relatives,
friends or coworkers that become infected from that person. It is a mysterious
question that only the filthy Chinese communists can answer.
The US main street economy is a mess while the Wall Street
stock market runs higher on the Federal Reserve’s money-printing. In the US in
March, 1.4 million jobs were lost. April was the big 21 million jobs flush. May
was a 2.5 million job gain. June was a 4.8 million job gain. Trump brags about
the job gains proclaiming the economy is back and God Bless him for the
enthusiasm, but there remains about 15 million folks out of work which is
nothing to celebrate. Many will never return to work.
And worse, since the pandemic has ramped up again (while
Trump and Pence are whistling past the graveyard), businesses are closing some
permanently. For the businesses holding on by their finger nails, before reopening, money has to be spent to stock restaurants, or
any business, with goods, and bring back employees if a service company. After
a couple weeks of serving a handful of stingy customers hotdogs and water, a
restaurant cannot survive.
Low margin businesses do not have a chance, because, as you probably learn at the fancy business schools, they can no longer make it up on volume. A low-margin grocery store can survive since customers have to buy food in bulk that is consumed at home but going to a restaurant is purely optional. Bankruptcies continue rising across all industries. Beaches in the west and south are closed for the holiday weekend but selected beaches on the East Coast, especially in New Jersey and North Carolina, are open with people practicing social distancing.
Low margin businesses do not have a chance, because, as you probably learn at the fancy business schools, they can no longer make it up on volume. A low-margin grocery store can survive since customers have to buy food in bulk that is consumed at home but going to a restaurant is purely optional. Bankruptcies continue rising across all industries. Beaches in the west and south are closed for the holiday weekend but selected beaches on the East Coast, especially in New Jersey and North Carolina, are open with people practicing social distancing.
Despite the jump in the headline jobs number on Friday, Jobless
Claims, released every Thursday morning at 8:30 AM EST, were at 1.4 million a
couple days ago, missing expectations, and are now running at a pace of 1 million claims for
15 consecutive weeks! Ay caramba! This hints that the two positive jobs reports
may end up as a slap in the face come July’s report on 8/7/20.
With the stock market always in rally mode because of the
Federal Reserve’s Keynesian money-printing schemes, the elite class, and even
the general population, and especially traders and investors, are very sanguine
about the future. Investors and traders believe that stocks will never go down because the Fed always supports the
market to protect the wealthy class that own large stock portfolios (moral hazard). Option put/call
data indicate ongoing complacency in the stock market which should create
concern. Everyone is partying like its 1999, as Prince would sing, and buying
stocks with reckless abandon.
The vaccine stocks are bid up continuously like casino chips
stacking up on a Vegas table. The FAANG tech stocks (FB; Facebook, AAPL; Apple,
AMZN; Amazon, NFLX; Netflix, GOOGL; Alphabet/Google) are running vertically
higher sending the Nasdaq indexes to new record highs. Microsoft, MSFT, is also
a top performer. When Sapple, Scamazon and Mister Softy roll over, it is
lights-out for the US stock market. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
For now, the upside par-tay in the stock market is in full
swing with online shopping, telemedicine, technology, video games, delivery
services, sanitizing products, generators, motor homes and working from home
themes sending stocks such as AMZN, WMT, ETSY, TDOC, WORK, ZM, MSFT, GNRC, THO,
CLX and PG to the moon.
Zillow says 2.9 million adults returned to living with their
parents or grandparents. This number is higher if college kids are included. Mortgage
delinquencies are the highest in nine years. 8% of the mortgages in the US are
late. Retailers want to renegotiate rents since shopping will no longer be the
same which will create stress in the commercial real estate market.
The immediate concern is the spike in coronavirus across the
US although Trump and Pence appear to be in denial that the pandemic is
worsening. The simple solution is to follow what worked in other countries
which is massive testing and then contact tracing. The tracing does not have to
be Big Brother-esque. The lack of coordination of a cohesive game plan for the
country is creating more chaos, confusion and angst as the virus cases
increase; exponentially in some states such as Florida, Arizona and Texas.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing
Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4
published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided
courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM
monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies
the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the
active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared,
like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active
cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add
28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak
Date.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart represents
the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. The news is
not good for many states as highlighted below. Several of the active cases
charts are going parabolic (vertical) which means trouble is here to stay for a
solid month or two for many states.
The US daily new cases is show in the top chart above with
its 3-day and 7-day MA (moving average). A moving average simply adds all the
values over that time period, say 7 days, and divides by 7 to get the average.
This is plotted on the chart. The next day the same calculation is performed for the last 7 days and you develop the moving average line which smooths out the day to day
gyrations so a trend can be identified. Obviously, the trend in the United
States is new cases going parabolic. The 3 and 7-day MA’s are also parabolic.
Note that the 3-day is above the 7-day which means price still has momentum to
move higher. A peak in the new cases cannot be confirmed until the 3-day
crosses down through the 7-day line and the number of cases and both moving
average lines roll over and begin trending lower.
Thus, for the current peak on 7/4/20, today, which is
another day above 50K new cases, and within that 8% topping zone, adding 28
days is 8/1/20. Even after the active cases bell curve flattens and
rolls over lower to form the right-hand side of the bell pattern, say, in early August, there is
another two or three weeks of stress for the medical staffs before they see a
notable drop off in the hospitalizations and their work load occurring. Each day that new
cases exceed 50K, is another day you can add to 8/1/20 to forecast the active
cases peak. Many American states are in serious covid trouble during July and into August.
The US active cases bell curve projects the maximum strain
on America’s health system to occur in late July early August. This sad news
will prohibit many hospitals from returning to normal service and performing elective
surgeries which pay the bills. The toll on US healthcare workers will be
immense over the next six weeks. With social distancing, it is a shame you
cannot hug a nurse, medic or doctor to show appreciation. The caregivers and
medical personnel are going to face maximum stress and pressure with their
jobs, families, life and of course the virus, over the next six weeks. Good
luck to everyone.
The US deaths chart is not provided but it
continues to move steadily higher, at less of a slope, as does most all other
countries around the world even if they handled the virus quickly. Trump and
Pence are great at repeating the phrase that deaths are on the decrease.
Wrongo. Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber are not doing too good in the
truth-telling department these days. On deaths, they can be given a
half-correct mark since it depends on the day if they are correct or not. For
the last eight days, the US virus deaths day to day change is as follows; eight
days ago 509 people died, seven days ago 285 people died, then 366, 727, 767,
687 and as of yesterday 616 people died moving from day to day. Thus, it is
true that deaths are decreasing for the days the numbers went from 509 to 285
and from 727 to 676 and from 687 to 616 but the deaths are actually increasing
for the day to day changes from 285 to 366 to 727 and from 676 to 687.
Politicians in both the Republican and Democrat Tribes are skilled liars. It reminds you of the famous sayings, "Statistics don't lie, statisticians (politicians) do," and, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
The Florida active cases chart shown above mimics the US
chart; ditto the Texas chart. The peak stress on US medical facilities should
occur as the month turns from July to August. If new cases continue at record
paces, the top in the bell curves will have to be pushed further out into
August. President Trump changed the Republican National Committee (RNC)
Convention from North Carolina to Florida which may end up as another stupid
decision. King Donnie is rolling the dice hoping the active cases bell curve is
on the downside so he can squeeze in the republican convention without disruption. However, it
appears very tight and a betting man would say that Florida medical personnel
will be under great stress and strain in August, and burnt-out, when Donnie
comes to town to par-tay with his convention donors and dancing girls.
Trump is already getting worried about the planned RNC event
since he is creating a narrative that he was forced to move the convention from
North Carolina to Florida; he is laying out a cover story in case the Florida
event is a disaster. It was his choice to move the event and North Carolina is probably happy they do not have to deal with the Donnie drama.
The DNC (democrat) convention is in Wisconsin on 8/17/20, a week before the republicans, but much of that will be done virtually. The president, however, wants a good ole-fashioned convention with people crammed into the hall providing cheers and adoration for his orange head. The great unknown is if the orange dashed lines will play out in the charts above representing a second wave coming this Fall into the holiday season.
The DNC (democrat) convention is in Wisconsin on 8/17/20, a week before the republicans, but much of that will be done virtually. The president, however, wants a good ole-fashioned convention with people crammed into the hall providing cheers and adoration for his orange head. The great unknown is if the orange dashed lines will play out in the charts above representing a second wave coming this Fall into the holiday season.
In Houston, Texas, medical facilities are already at ICU bed
limits and the chart above, which represents the entire state, has a way to go
before the peak in the active cases bell curve occurs (Houston has seen nothing
yet; they will be smacked hard and healthcare workers stretched to the breaking
limit). Arizona ICU beds are well over 90% filled so they are next in line for
trouble. Florida ICU beds are at over 80% capacity so they are following behind
Arizona. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls.
The United States needs solutions to this covid nightmare.
The American ship is rudderless and heading for the reef. It is easy to model
and forecast what is coming but will the politicians listen? Probably not since
most are worried about their re-elections in less than four months. Such is crony capitalism the rigged
system for the wealthy class.
The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for
forecasting purposes. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new
peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new
date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the
peak in the active cases chart (maximum stress on healthcare workers) will occur. The behavior of matching or higher
high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region
such as the US.
The peak new case date for the US is now 7/4/20, and adding
28 days, targets 8/1/20 for the peak in the active cases bell curve and this is
the best case scenario. Healthcare workers face a tough summer.
The active cases bell curves have peaked, flattened and
rolled over for the following nations that are on their way to better days
ahead barring a second wave; China, South Korea, Switzerland, Austria, Australia,
Iran, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Ireland, Turkey, Spain, France,
Japan, Portugal, Singapore, Ecuador, Canada, Russia, Iran and Peru. UK, Belgium,
Netherlands, Ecuador and Sweden data are suspect so the top in the active cases
bell curve cannot be completely confirmed. Iran has survived a second wave with
the active cases bell curve peaking in early April and then again a couple
weeks ago.
Brazil (data is suspect)
Brazil (data is suspect)
6/19/20 New Case Peak Date
7/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(active cases peak 7/1/20 but give it a couple more days)
Pakistan
6/20/20 New Case Peak Date
7/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(active cases peak 7/2/20 but give it a couple more days)
Sweden (data is suspect)
6/24/20 New Case Peak Date
7/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot
confirm that the peak is in)
Egypt
6/19/20 New Case
Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Honduras
6/29/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kenya
7/1/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/29/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Indonesia
7/2/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bangladesh
7/2/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Colombia
7/2/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Mexico
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Africa
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Philippines
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
India
7/3/20 New Case
Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Guatemala
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Argentina
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bolivia
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
United
States
7/4/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
The United
States is at the bottom of the heap for the last three weeks. In fairness, a
bunch of nations are clustered together in this covid Hell. Mexico, Central
America and South America are hit hard as if it is a tougher virus strain.
There are outbreaks in Africa. India and Bangladesh are still trying to wrestle
the virus under control. Indonesia and the Philippines are spinning out of
control. Philippines may have taken a drastic turn for the worst.
The list of
states based on the highest number of COVID-19 cases to the lowest are as
follows; New York, California, Texas, Florida and New Jersey. Of the states
with usable and available data, the following states peaked out on their
active cases curves in 28 days or less from the new cases peak date; Louisiana,
Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Illinois. New York took longer.
Governor
Cuomo finally receives the present he is looking for; the active cases peak for
New York on 7/1/20 but give it a few days to see if it sticks. Cuomo declared
mission accomplished, stopped the daily press conferences and exited stage
right a couple weeks ago to avoid questions about sending many seniors,
infected with covid, back to the nursing homes. The result was disastrous with
thousands of deaths. New York medical personnel will finally begin
catching a break going forward as the peak in hospitalizations are now in the
rearview mirror barring any new flare-ups. The new cases are spiking in
Louisiana and the active cases curve is moving alarmingly higher. It will be
troublesome if Louisiana falls back into the coronavirus swamp.
These states
listed above have breathing room to plan ahead for a potential second wave in
the Fall. The US states below show the active cases bell curve charts rising,
and not flattening, so the strain on the healthcare systems continue for these
states and will not peak-out until August. The strain and stress on medical
facilities and personnel will continue for about six weeks, at least that long,
for the states below. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls.
New York (data is suspect)
New York (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 4/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/13/20 (active
cases finally peak 7/1/20 but give it a couple more days)
Washington
(state) (data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/1/20 (new cases are increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 5/29/20 (as of 7/4/20, chart continues higher)
Maryland
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/19/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/16/20 (as of 7/4/20, chart continues higher)
Virginia
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/26/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (as of 7/4/20, chart continues higher)
New Mexico
New Case
Peak Date 6/5/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/3/20 (s of 7/4/20, chart continues higher)
Oklahoma
New Case
Peak Date 6/30/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/28/20
Texas
New Case
Peak Date 7/1/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20
Arizona
New Case
Peak Date 7/1/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20
Alabama
New Case
Peak Date 7/1/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20
California
New Case
Peak Date 7/2/20 (cases increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/2/20 (cases rapidly
increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Arkansas
New Case
Peak Date 7/2/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/30/20
South Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 7/3/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/31/20
North
Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 7/3/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Florida
(data is suspect) (republican convention is in Florida starting 8/24/20)
New Case
Peak Date 7/3/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Ohio
New Case
Peak Date 7/3/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/31/20
For any
state that has not yet reached its peak in the active case curve, simply
identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project
when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the
Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s
number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the
new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load.
Ohio is a
mess with the active cases curve peaking on 5/5/20 but now coming up in a
second wave higher than before on 7/4/20. New cases register the largest number
to date. Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama are worsening and not discussed in the
news as much as the other troubled states; they likely will be in the days ahead.
It is shocking to see the spikes higher in new and active cases in the
Carolina's considering that some of the beaches are open in these regions this
weekend. Oy vey!
After six
months of knowing that there was a problem with a pneumonia-like disease
spreading in Wuhan, China, home of two bioweapons laboratories, the United
States is in the worst shape to date. Coronavirus is spreading out of control
over the last couple weeks. Early June was only a lull period; it was the
darkness before it turned completely pitch black.
Leadership in
solving the coronavirus situation is lacking and is probably the main reason
that Trump’s popularity ratings are dropping. Governors are busy handling the
expanding pandemics in their states many back pedaling, with egg on their
faces, from rosy proclamations a couple months ago. Each state has a different set of rules to follow. The mistakes and missteps
from the health organizations WHO, CDC and NIH, have resulted in a lack of
trust and even belief in the science behind the virus. Chaos and confusion have
been the two operative words over the last couple months.
Something
has to give. Either the virus magically decides to subside overnight and the
picture greatly improves, or, the expected path forward occurs where many
troubled states face nightmare scenarios during the coming six weeks (until the
active cases bell curve peaks, flattens and rolls over). As the latter scenario
plays out, Trump and Pence will have to capitulate but they are skilled
politicians and will figure out some double-speak to win the day.
Democrat
presidential candidate Biden continues leading Trump in the polls including a Fox
News poll so he is hiding in the basement taking naps. Trump is becoming
flustered since he needs a foil to rail against. The virus has the upper hand
on Trump since it will run its course the way it sees fit no matter what the
president says. Trump cannot control or manipulate it with insults and tweets. Similarly, since Donnie is
performing yeoman’s work at decreasing his own poll ratings, Biden remains
quiet and continues hiding out in the basement. Sleepy Joe is taking gingko
biloba supplements twice per day and spending time staring at crossword
puzzles. Biden is not on the campaign stump making gaffs so Trump does not have
any fresh red meat that he could chew-up and spit out in an anti-Joe Twitter
symphony.
News reports
today say that President Trump wants to move towards a new message that America
will have to learn to live with the virus going forward. That is hilarious,
albeit tragic, considering that the orange-headed carnival barker has said for
the last couple months that the virus is under control. Now it is not under
control and we will have to learn to live with it. That’s Our Donnie. Trump is
set to begin another Independence Day event where attendees will likely not
wear masks or follow social distancing guidelines. The COVID-19 data and charts
do not look good. America will likely be deep in coronavirus trouble by
mid-month. The hoarding mentality will likely begin anew this week.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/5/20, at 4:35 AM EST: Independence Day is in the bag. The smoke from the fireworks is history and the marching bands and revelers are sleeping off the festivities. The holiday was not the same with the coronavirus pandemic ongoing as well as other political and economic turmoil. For all of you that partied too much, Kris wrote a great song that Johnny made his own; Sunday Morning Coming Down. President Trump proclaims that 99% of the virus cases are "totally harmless" and "China will be held accountable." As mentioned above, the Carolina's are looking bad. The media is now labeling Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, a popular tourist destination, as a summer petri dish. The full moon peaks for the month about five hours ago. The overnight is bright as daytime. Will humans display lunacy today?
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/6/20, at 7:26 AM EST: The hits keep on coming. Scientists think the coronavirus remains airborne longer than thought. This leads to the increased infection rates inside buildings, restaurants, bars, offices and so forth. It was highlighted in an article weeks ago how the virus is smaller in size than other viruses so it makes sense that it remains airborne longer. It is disappointing that after six months, scientists are still discussing such things. They are clueless. China surely knows a lot more that they are not sharing with the world. Filthy communists. Bubonic plague is breaking out in Mongolia. There is also a new swine flu breaking out in China. A brain-eating amoeba is attacking a person in Florida. The coronavirus appears to be worsening in the US with the spike in new cases continuing. Other than all that, things are going swimmingly. The germs are winning against the humans these days.
Note Added Wednesday, 7/8/20: The coronavirus cases in the United States are above 3 million and running higher. One in 300 Americans have or had the virus. The new cases are above 61K the first time above 60,000. Thus, as per the Keystone Model above, add 28 days and the peak in the active cases chart, the maximum strain on the medical system, will not occur until 8/5/20. As the new cases increase, the strain on the healthcare system will increase, and how will Donnie and the gang be received mid-August coming to Florida for the convention with the virus storm still raging? Trump should have left the convention in North Carolina as originally planned instead of moving it to Florida which may prove a stupid decision. Our Donnie is the impatient guy in a rush at a busy grocery store that jumps over to a different check-out line, muscling an elderly woman out of the way, thinking it will be faster, but it ends up taking longer. If the new cases keep continuing higher for a couple weeks, the trouble in Florida will be rampant as the RNC convention begins. Even now, it is not looking to be a good backdrop for the republicans.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/5/20, at 4:35 AM EST: Independence Day is in the bag. The smoke from the fireworks is history and the marching bands and revelers are sleeping off the festivities. The holiday was not the same with the coronavirus pandemic ongoing as well as other political and economic turmoil. For all of you that partied too much, Kris wrote a great song that Johnny made his own; Sunday Morning Coming Down. President Trump proclaims that 99% of the virus cases are "totally harmless" and "China will be held accountable." As mentioned above, the Carolina's are looking bad. The media is now labeling Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, a popular tourist destination, as a summer petri dish. The full moon peaks for the month about five hours ago. The overnight is bright as daytime. Will humans display lunacy today?
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/6/20, at 7:26 AM EST: The hits keep on coming. Scientists think the coronavirus remains airborne longer than thought. This leads to the increased infection rates inside buildings, restaurants, bars, offices and so forth. It was highlighted in an article weeks ago how the virus is smaller in size than other viruses so it makes sense that it remains airborne longer. It is disappointing that after six months, scientists are still discussing such things. They are clueless. China surely knows a lot more that they are not sharing with the world. Filthy communists. Bubonic plague is breaking out in Mongolia. There is also a new swine flu breaking out in China. A brain-eating amoeba is attacking a person in Florida. The coronavirus appears to be worsening in the US with the spike in new cases continuing. Other than all that, things are going swimmingly. The germs are winning against the humans these days.
Note Added Wednesday, 7/8/20: The coronavirus cases in the United States are above 3 million and running higher. One in 300 Americans have or had the virus. The new cases are above 61K the first time above 60,000. Thus, as per the Keystone Model above, add 28 days and the peak in the active cases chart, the maximum strain on the medical system, will not occur until 8/5/20. As the new cases increase, the strain on the healthcare system will increase, and how will Donnie and the gang be received mid-August coming to Florida for the convention with the virus storm still raging? Trump should have left the convention in North Carolina as originally planned instead of moving it to Florida which may prove a stupid decision. Our Donnie is the impatient guy in a rush at a busy grocery store that jumps over to a different check-out line, muscling an elderly woman out of the way, thinking it will be faster, but it ends up taking longer. If the new cases keep continuing higher for a couple weeks, the trouble in Florida will be rampant as the RNC convention begins. Even now, it is not looking to be a good backdrop for the republicans.
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