By K E Stone
Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon, released
from the Wuhan laboratories, has infected 13.3 million people around the world
murdering 576K souls. 7.7 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease
has attacked and sickened 3.5 million Americans (1.1% of the 330 million US
population) murdering over 138K United States citizens. 1.5 million people have
recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (26%)
of the coronavirus cases and one-quarter (24%) of the deaths. China must pay
for its bioterrorism.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, Chile, UK, Mexico, Spain,
UK, South Africa, Iran and Pakistan. The outbreaks in the US, Brazil, India,
Peru, Chile and Mexico continue spinning out of control.
Within the United States, both the new cases and active
cases ramp higher over the last couple weeks. The greatest number of total
COVID-19 cases are in New York followed by California, Florida, Texas, New
Jersey, Illinois, Arizona, Georgia, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, North
Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, Maryland, Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, South
Carolina, Alabama, Indiana and Connecticut. All 21 states are quickly
approaching or over 50,000 cases. Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina
and Alabama move up on the list. The prior article mentioned how the cases were
rising rapidly in Louisiana and it may become a hotspot.
39 of the 50 states are experiencing an increase in virus cases.
This statistic is between 30 and 40 states for the last two weeks so the
hospitals in the hardest hit states are feeling the pressure.
Tragically, nursing homes, meat-packing facilities, cruise
ships, prisons, adult and child camps, water and amusement parks, the US
military and VA facilities are hit exceptionally hard by the virus. The Navajo
Nation (Native Americans), Latinos and blacks are hit proportionally harder by
the virus. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are also experiencing outbreaks.
The coronavirus pandemic is a chaotic and confusing mess;
there is no other way to describe it. President Trump continues downplaying the
virus while the data worsens. An ABC News/Ipsos poll indicates that two-thirds
of the country (67%) are unhappy with President Trump’s handling of the
pandemic (keep in mind that ABC News is left-leaning so the results would be
expected to be a little worse for the president).
Trump and Vice President Pence want the schools to reopen
(as every American does) and threaten to withhold federal funding if a state
does not comply. This is not helpful. Donnie is the mouse that roared. State
governors, especially in the south and west, are knee-deep in coronavirus
patients and trying to develop plans to reopen schools. Threats from the king
do not improve the situation they only serve to increase stress on the people
trying to resolve the problems. Americans likely sense this conflict which
leads to lower poll numbers for the president. Older teachers are concerned
that they may contract the virus if they return to the classroom daily. How
will children practice social distancing on the school bus? There are many
issues to resolve.
For the first months of the virus saga, Trump was on television
daily bragging that he is the best and the response to the virus is the best in
the world. Trump has moved on and appears detached from the seriousness of the
escalating coronavirus cases. He has not met with Dr Fauci from the NIH, that
is the head of the task force on the science side, for two months. A good place
to start this article is with the death’s controversy in recent days.
Trump and Pence keep touting that the death rate is
dropping. The last few days they do not say this with good reason. It is not
true. Previous articles have mentioned the need for standard nomenclature and
definitions to help the public understand the pandemic. Instead, it is
continuous confusion and misinformation from politicians. Major news outlets
are making routine errors in their reporting due to confusion over terms, data
and charts. Most people still do not understand what flattening the curve means
and that it applies to the active cases chart only.
The president and vice president say the death rate is
dropping but neither states the basis for the claim. Of course they don’t; they
are politicians. They purposely talk vaguely so they cannot be pinned down and
blamed for things in the future.
The US daily death chart is posted above. Total deaths will
always increase as the virus runs its course. The daily death numbers, however,
will fluctuate up and down and of course down is desired and a trend of down is
cheered, hopefully all the way to zero virus deaths. Since the day-to-day data
is choppy, moving averages are used to smooth out the data and identify trends.
Both the 3-day moving average and 7-day MA are shown in the chart. For the
3-day MA, the last three days of deaths are added and divided by three. Then
the next day this calculation is repeated, and the next day, etc…, yielding the
3-day MA line. Same-o for the 7-day MA only 7 days are your basis; this is a
longer term moving average than the 3-day so its line will be smoother.
Now that you know how to read the US deaths chart, you can
more easily identify the political baby games afoot in the crony capitalism
system. In March and early April the daily deaths and moving averages were all
ramping higher which was terrible news. Then from 4/21/20 to 5/26/20, the 7-day
MA of deaths decreased. On 5/6/20, deaths were spiking higher on a daily and
3-day MA basis but on the 7-day MA basis the rate of deaths were decreasing.
The politicians can manipulate their messages according to the ebb and flow of
data. On 5/6/20, someone saying deaths are decreasing and someone else saying
deaths are increasing would both be correct; each one is using a different
basis for their conclusion.
From 5/26/20 to 6/2/20, the 7-day MA actually moves flat to
higher so the death rate in America was no longer dropping it was increasing.
Then from 6/2/20 to 7/6/20, the 7-day MA trended lower again verifying a
decreasing death rate on this basis. Nobody will tell you what basis they are
using, it could be any moving average, 10, 20, 50 days, take your pick, but by
deciphering the tea leaves in this confusing covid brew, the 7-day MA appears
to be accepted as an indication of the status of the ongoing death rate in
America, so it is suggested to use that when assessing the US death rate trend.
From 7/6/20 through today, the 7-day MA is ramping higher
again sadly the death rate is increasing in the United States currently. So now
you understand the game. A politician can say on any given day that deaths are
decreasing and if deaths are lower in the day-to-day data, that is correct. Or
a politician may exclaim doom and gloom and say deaths are increasing and that
would be correct if it was said in March into early April, or from late May
into the first couple days of June, or from Independence Day to now, based on
the 7-day MA. Pence proclaimed a lower death rate just before and around the
July 4 holiday and technically, based on the 7-day MA, he was correct. He does
not say it now since he would be incorrect but he never mentioned the 7-day MA
as his basis anyway.
Time frames must be identified when discussing data but
politicians will never be nailed down; that is why they always appear so
sleazy. The first rule a new politician learns when arriving inside the corrupt
Washington, DC, beltway is to never provide a date certain for anything. At
least now you know how the statistical games are played with the death numbers.
Keep an eye on that death chart because it may be trying to level off again and
hopefully fall. This is likely false hope because new cases remain robust
having topped 60K per day and the active cases chart is ramping ever higher.
This means more deaths are on the way.
Trump and Pence complain that the CDC guidelines for
reopening schools is too expensive and impractical. That is funny. Two
empty-suit politicians are telling scientists to change their conclusions and
data because the schools need reopened immediately. Pence says the CDC will
revise their guidelines and issue new information next week. A day later, the
CDC says they will not change their guidelines. The CDC wants schools to reopen
but hopes they can follow the guidelines and do it safely.
The main problem is the real estate footprint; a school is not
large enough to allow for social distancing of all students at all times.
Either the number of students physically at school must be reduced, or the
social distancing rules relaxed, or more useable space must be found perhaps
bringing in classroom trailers, to provide a safe education experience. China
screwed America bigtime.
Trump creates controversy proclaiming that 99% of the virus
cases are “harmless.” Fauci and other doctors do not know where the president
came up with that data. The death rate is very low sub 1% and minuscule for
young folks, however, to say it is harmless is far from the truth. Many
patients that recover are stricken with heart defects, lung scarring and
respiratory morbidity. Calling lingering morbidities from the coronavirus
harmless is an incorrect statement. Trump is not happy seeing Fauci on television
disagreeing with his comments.
Florida is drama central. The RNC convention is on tap next month.
Republican Governor Desantis is a ‘mini-me’ of Trump and says a few days ago
that the curve is flattening and under control. That is stupid. Two months ago,
Desantis bragged that Florida handled the virus situation well and he chastised
all that doubted him. Desantis now spends several minutes each day wiping egg
off his face. Miami is a massive hotspot with the virus spinning out of control
and city hospitals at over 90% capacity and increasing. 50 hospitals in Florida
are at capacity. Minutes ago, eight Florida hospitals now report zero ICU bed
capacity. The testing results are indicating a 19% positivity rate in Florida
and over 28% in Miami-Dade County. Staffing shortages are developing with
hospitals asking other states for help. Desantis provides a virus update when a
protestor begins yelling, “Shame on you, shame on you,” disrupting the press
event. The heckler says Desantis does nothing while Latino’s die.
Testing remains a mess in America. The protocol of testing and tracing is now thrown out the window since healthcare workers have to handle the crisis at hand which is a rise in cases across the southern and western states. The quality and distribution of tests is subpar. Now that the clinical demand for tests is increasing, it takes away from testing the general public in other sections of the US. Obviously, a national plan is needed. Testing is taking eight days for results in some locations which is unacceptable. Trump needs to step up to the plate and get the states organized and walking in the same direction but he likely does not want blamed for problems ahead of the election in less than four months. Donnie needs to put his political hat down and pick up his work hat and he may find that the work hat gets him to and past the November finish line (election) rather than the political hat that may leave him in the weeds eating dust.
Testing remains a mess in America. The protocol of testing and tracing is now thrown out the window since healthcare workers have to handle the crisis at hand which is a rise in cases across the southern and western states. The quality and distribution of tests is subpar. Now that the clinical demand for tests is increasing, it takes away from testing the general public in other sections of the US. Obviously, a national plan is needed. Testing is taking eight days for results in some locations which is unacceptable. Trump needs to step up to the plate and get the states organized and walking in the same direction but he likely does not want blamed for problems ahead of the election in less than four months. Donnie needs to put his political hat down and pick up his work hat and he may find that the work hat gets him to and past the November finish line (election) rather than the political hat that may leave him in the weeds eating dust.
The Florida active cases chart, the bell curve chart, shows
that the RNC convention is toast. Floridians, and probably most of America, may
be sickened to see Donnie and the convention circus roll into town for a big
party as the healthcare professionals are fighting the virus tooth and nail at
the peak of the bell curve. The ongoing staff shortage at medical facilities
will have healthcare workers completely exhausted a month from now probably in
little mood for a balloon party. One would surmise that the republicans would
not receive good press if they insist on a large-scale physically-attended
convention. Trump wants his adoring crowd to cheer him. Donnie’s daily fuel is
adoration and he goes into solitude and withdrawal without it like a junkie
without a daily fix of crack. The republicans may make an announcement in the
days ahead concerning the convention since it is not looking good 41 days away.
The DNC convention begins the prior week on 8/17/20 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin,
but will mainly take place virtually.
The Florida active cases bell curve chart is shown above.
The New Cases Peak Date is 7/12/20 at 15,300 cases only a day ago so adding 28
days is 8/9/20 for the peak in the active cases bell curve representing the
maximum stress on Florida's medical system. This flatness may linger for a week or
two and then a nice drop-off for the right side of the bell shape should occur.
The graph shows how the maximum strain on Florida healthcare workers will be
occurring as the RNC convention begins. That cannot be something that ends
well. Also remember, if the new cases continue spiking and printing highs
within 8% of the 7/12/20 New Cases Peak Date, that only serves to push the peak
in the active cases chart 28 days forward again. If the new cases remain at the
current robust pace for another week or two, the medical system will be
screaming bloody murder up to their eyeballs in mayhem, death and sickness,
only to see Donnie and the gang drive into town sporting Hawaiian shirts and
sandals carrying beach umbrellas.
The US active cases chart is shown above and it is a
terrible chart. If Americans would have been patient and followed the
guidelines on masks, social distancing, and staying at home, everyone
understanding that this is an economic hardship, for only a couple additional
weeks, that active cases bell curve would have continued lower in June (orange dashed line).
Instead, the United States is in serious virus trouble. The riots and protests
on social justice, reopening of beaches, bars, restaurants, gyms and salons,
and cabin-fever after the initial lockdown all create the big spike in
coronavirus cases. People became lazy with mask-wearing and many refuse to wear
masks proclaiming that if the president does not wear a mouth diaper than neither
will I.
On 7/10/20, the United States reports 71,787 new coronavirus
cases. Oh my. On 7/13/20, there are 65,488. Adding 28 days to the New Cases
Peak Date on 7/10/20 targets a peak in the active cases chart on 8/7/20.
However, if the new cases on any day forward exceed 66K, that day will become
the new peak day and 28 days must be added to that to project the peak in
active cases (everything is pushed farther into the future; the virus lingers).
That sickening chart is at least due in part to the poor messaging and handling
of the virus by many players including the Whitehouse, both democrat and
republican governors and city mayors, and The Three Stooges of the medical
system the CDC, NIH and WHO. There is plenty of blame to go around.
Last Wednesday, 7/8/20, the US coronavirus cases are above 3
million ramping higher. The testing situation remains a mess. One patient is
tested four times in 10 days and two tests are negative and two positive. America’s
hope for an effective testing and contact tracing program has to be put on the
back burner since the pandemic is out of control in many states. The situation
must be stabilized first before healthcare workers can begin systematically and
methodically testing patients and then tracing their contacts if positive for
the virus. The testing results must be available quickly. Due to the onslaught
of cases, and believe it or not, there are still shortages with medical
supplies, some tests are taking five days and longer for results. Six months
into the pandemic and this is the best America has to offer. Uncle Sam collapses in disappointment, sitting on a dirty alley curb, staining his striped pants. The American icon places his elbows on knees, head in hands, and weeps; his top hat falls into
a puddle of dark water displacing a floating cigarette butt.
On Thursday, 7/9/20, deaths ramp higher in Texas and
California for three days running. New daily virus cases in the US top 60,000
for the first time. Dr Fauci’s doomsday prediction (if the country did not
follow the mask and social distancing guidelines) is a potential 100K new cases
daily. America is dealing with pandemic chaos in the south and western states
while Trump and Pence whistle past the graveyard. They keep brow-beating the
states to reopen schools. Fauci responds to a Trump tweet, since the two are not
talking anymore, saying, “We (US) are going in the wrong direction and not
doing great.” The death numbers are stacking up in California, Texas and
Florida.
On Friday evening, 7/10/20, the city of Atlanta, Georgia,
goes into lockdown. One day is more bazaar than the next. Trump and Pence
continue to say all is fine while the pandemic is clearly raging forward. There
are shortages of PPE appearing in parts of Texas. How can that be after six
months of dealing with the virus? America is appearing incompetent. Rumors
surface that Trump may take a trip somewhere tomorrow where he has to wear a
face mask and he may allow himself to be photographed with the mask on,
reversing his half-year’s vanity. Humorously, Donnie needs a face diaper to
catch the daily flow of verbal diarrhea from his orange oral orifice.
On Saturday evening, 7/11/20, President Trump visits the ill
and injured soldiers and veterans at Walter Reed Hospital and Donnie finally
dons a face covering. The event was staged from top to bottom. News outlets say
Trump’s aids were pleading with him to wear a mask but you cannot trust
anything you hear nowadays. Donnie comes into view in the hospital corridor as
he turns a corner. He is flanked by a couple generals and many others following
behind all with dark face masks. He surrounds himself with many others so he
does not stick out as much. It is comical to see Donnie in a mask since he
refused to wear one the last three months and perhaps is one of the reasons
behind the elevated coronavirus cases. Some people will still refuse to wear a
mask.
Donnie leads the entourage along the corridor towards the
stationary camera, again, this event was obviously staged. As he approaches the
camera, the hall bends to the side and he disappears from view. There it is.
The democrat-leaning news outlets such as CNN and MSNBC play up the mask
capitulation by Trump. Republican-leaning Fox News ignores the story. The sight
is hilarious. Trump is squinting his eyes as if he is channeling Clint Eastwood
in a spaghetti western. Trump boasted the other day that he looks like the Lone
Ranger in a mask, no, no you don’t Donnie, you look like a jackass like all the
rest of us. Trump probably spent 10 minutes out of view of the camera adjusting
and readjusting the mask on his orange head as an aid held a large mirror.
Trump’s loyalists will have to decide now if they want to
wear masks after they touted the Trump line for many weeks about refusing to
don face coverings. That is what happens when you cheerlead one of these
corrupt political parties; you will get burned in the end. Now the Trump
loyalists will have to sing the praises of mask wearing since their leader says
it is now acceptable to wear a mask (as the coronavirus cases in the US spin
out of control registering new records daily). Trump did not want to be on the
wrong side of history and appear totally oblivious to the pandemic in
retrospect.
On Sunday, 7/12/20, the WHO finally begins investigating the
origins of coronavirus on site in Wuhan, China. The filthy dirtbag communists
released the covid bioweapon on the world and only now, many months later,
permit the start of a controlled investigation. Even worse, China and the WHO
are lying in bed together so do not expect any significant findings from this
dog and pony show.
Hong Kong registers 38 new virus cases with most transmitted
locally. The situation is called a wave three by the scientists and may be
worse than March. Schools are closed but the bars, restaurants and beaches are
open which makes no sense. A few hours later, the government then closes the
bars, restaurants and indoor establishments and activities. It is obvious that
not one nation fully understands the coronavirus in detail as yet. The Chinese understand
covid since they invented it in their bioweapons laboratories in Wuhan but
those hollow commie souls will not provide the information to the rest of the
world.
Florida reports over 15,000 new coronavirus cases in one day
the most of any state. 2.4 million people have been tested in Florida which is
about 1 in every 9 people. The virus cases of Floridians over 80 years of age
has doubled over the last two weeks. While the weekend turmoil and angst,
fueled by the liberal cable news networks CNN and MSNBC, whips people into
frenzy, Donnie is at a fundraiser in Florida and gets in a round of golf.
Disney World in Florida reopens this weekend in the midst of the pandemic. Hong
Kong Disneyland closes after reopening due to a coronavirus outbreak.
The states most infected with coronavirus currently such as
Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, are reporting test results with
positivity rates of between 10% and 30%. A target goal is a 5% positivity rate
or lower which would allow a state to proceed with reopening its economy in a
staged manner; even a 10% or lower positivity rate would be welcome.
Pennsylvania, who has had a handle on the virus the last couple months, is
reporting an 11% positivity rate with testing.
160 vaccine technologies are underway around the world. US
scientists say that as much as 40% of the COVID-19 patients may be
asymptomatic. New York City reports zero virus deaths offering some much-needed
positive news.
For today, Tuesday, 7/14/20, 39 states are experiencing a
rise in coronavirus cases. California announces closures of indoor activities
for most counties including gyms, restaurants and salons. California is
developing plans to teach students virtually this Fall. The shame of the pandemic
is that the folks that are poor and disadvantaged are hurt the worst as usual
since they do not have money to buy laptops and computers and high-speed
internet service for their homes, apartments or house trailers. Many kids will
fall behind.
The federal response to the pandemic remains chaotic and
weak. Trump should have realized he would be blamed regardless of the outcome
so he would have been better off facing the pandemic head on over the last two
months instead of leading from behind (which is what he accused President Obama
of doing). Trump is fixated on the November election only 112 days away. As the
virus spreads across America this weekend, the president is spending time
denigrating Dr Fauci who is his lead doctor on the virus task force. Only Donnie
can create such a script for the daily presidential reality television show.
Trump says Fauci is a nice guy but he made a lot of
mistakes. Humorously, when the president says you are a nice guy and he gets
along well with you that usually means you are toast. Fauci and Trump both have
gotten plenty of things wrong but the president needs scapegoats to blame with
the election breathing down his back. Trump is likely jealous of Fauci since
the doctor receives good press and Is more popular and trusted (by an ignorant public) during this
pandemic. Fauci and Trump both have plenty of skeletons rattling around in their closets. One lesson you must obey in the presence of King Trump is that you
never upstage him; if you do he will get rid of you. Donnie must always be the
star of the daily show.
The president is also working on other matters instead of
focusing attention on the pandemic such as commuting Roger Stone’s sentence.
Stone, no relation to this author, lied to Congress and faced a multi-year jail
sentence. Trump, the republicans, Breitbart, Fox News and talk radio claim a
vast misjustice for this fine gentleman, who calls himself a “dirty trickster,”
and say the president is justified in letting him off the hook; it is part of
the Russian hoax.
Biden, the democrats, CNN, MSNBC and the mainstream
broadcast news channels proclaim Trump as the most corrupt president in history
purposefully releasing Stone from prison. As always, with this crony capitalism
system that is on its last legs, both sides have dirt on their hands. In truth,
the likely simple reason for the commutation, Occam’s razor-style, is that
Stone knows where the Trump family bodies are buried. Stone and Trump are
friends, sometimes adversaries, for many decades. Donnie would never want Roger
to reveal all the secrets he keeps during their life-long relationship. Stone knew all along that he would get off.
Biden continues leading Trump in the polls for the November
election but hilariously, 67% of the people that support Biden are saying they
are doing that because they want to get rid of Trump (not because they are
enthusiastic about Sleepy Joe). Comically, the winner of the election depends
on how many people dislike the other candidate. Americans will vote for a guy not
because they believe in his policies but because they dislike the other guy.
Trump won in part because people could not bring themselves to vote for corrupt
Clinton that placed a secret server in her house. Will Biden win because the
media has mainly painted Trump as a corrupt political figure? It is a moot
point since it does not make a difference who wins. American voters in November will simply be
choosing which man oversees the ongoing collapse of America’s crony capitalism
system; nothing will stop this juggernaut from proceeding forward and likely
morphing into a multi-year class war.
China and US relations deteriorate daily. Tensions mount in
the South China Sea where China is aggressively taking over islands claimed by
many other Asian nations. This trouble started under President Obama who let
China walk over him like a doormat. The US issues sanctions against Chinese
officials involved in the Xinjiang concentration and retraining camps. China is
conducting a mass detention of Uyghurs (Muslims) and other minorities including
some Turkish Muslims and Christians in these re-education camps. The folks are
treated cruelly in the internment camps. China retaliates against the US by
sanctioning lawmakers involved in crafting the bill that calls out the
communist country’s abuses. In addition, which creates a small drop in the US
futures markets, China announces plans to sanction aerospace and defense
company Lockheed Martin.
Here are some notable quotes. California democrat Governor
Newsom proclaims, “This virus is not going away anytime soon.” Dr Fauci says,
“The US has not even begun to see the end yet.” WHO decrees that the world will
not return to normal for the foreseeable future. Vice President Pence, after a
couple months of denial, proclaims to the governors of the US states, “Protect
your citizens” anyway you can. One-half year into the coronavirus pandemic, and
it is a clusterfxxx (vulgar slang).
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes
and more data and information are available. This is Article 13 in the
coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This
thirteenth article is published on Tuesday, 7/14/20.
The countries and US states are listed below from best to
worst based on the spread of the virus so the hot spots around the world and in
America are easily identified. The coronavirus articles are written in real-time
so it is interesting to see the progression of knowledge, thought, hysteria and
scientific information during each week of the 2020 worldwide coronavirus
pandemic.
The health organizations (WHO, CDC and NIH), Trump
Administration and Congress continue struggling on how to handle and contain the
COVID-19 pandemic. All the previous articles in the coronavirus series below
can be accessed through the site archives or by searching on the site or
internet (google, bing, etc...).
The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve
Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing
$700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive
Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively);
Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave
Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming
Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided
courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM
monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies
the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the
active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared,
like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active
cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add
28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak
Date.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart represents
the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. The news is
not good for many countries and states as highlighted below. Several of the
active cases charts are going parabolic (vertical) which means trouble is here
to stay for at least a solid month.
The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for
forecasting purposes. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new
peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new
date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the
peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher
high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region
such as the US.
The peak new case date for the US is now 7/10/20, and adding
28 days, targets 8/7/20 for the peak in the active cases bell curve and this is
the best case scenario. Healthcare workers face a tough summer.
The active cases bell curves have peaked, flattened and
rolled over for China, South Korea, European nations, Japan, Canada and many
others. Italy’s active cases chart is shown above and worth a look. That chart
is a perfect bell curve shape which is what you want to see. The maximum strain
on the healthcare system is at the top of the bell shape and then the recovery
proceeds at a faster pace once the chart rolls over to form the right side of
the bell.
The United States was so close (look at the US active cases
chart) but the people and politicians became too impatient in this immediate
gratification society and began partying too soon. Instead of a beautiful bell
curve like Italy (the boot-shaped nation did pay a heavy toll with deaths and
illness), America has buptkis; a chart that continues higher. The US continues
searching for the top of its active cases bell curve. Will it come before the
8/7/20 projected peak by the Keystone Model, or after? If Americans remain
stubborn and the virus continues spreading, herd immunity may be the only
future answer.
Below are some of the remaining global hotspots with their
projected peaks in active cases dates provided.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Brazil (data is suspect)
Brazil (data is suspect)
6/19/20
New Case Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Egypt
6/19/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Sweden (data
is suspect)
6/24/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in)
Ukraine
6/26/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bangladesh
7/2/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (it peaks 7/11/20 but give it a couple days)
Guatemala
7/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Honduras
7/6/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/3/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Philippines
7/8/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/5/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Indonesia
7/9/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/6/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kenya
7/10/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
United
States
7/10/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Colombia
7/10/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Mexico
7/11/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Romania
7/11/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Africa
7/11/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Argentina
7/11/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bolivia
7/12/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/9/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
El Salvador
7/13/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
India
7/13/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Oman
7/13/20 New
Case Peak Date
8/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
The United
States has been at the bottom of the heap over the last couple weeks but now
Central and South America, parts of Africa and India and Oman join the sick
virus club. Oman is located on the southern side of the Saudi Arabian Peninsula
with Yemen to the west and UAE to the north. Canada’s active cases curve and
new cases hint that they may be starting a move higher again. If rules have
been relaxed a couple weeks ago, it is showing in the data so Canada may want
to think twice about the path forward.
The virus
originated from one of the Chinese bioweapon’s laboratories in Wuhan (there are
two) and the version of the virus in Asia was not as bad as the strain that hit
Europe. It brought Italy, France, Spain, Portugal and other European nations to
their knees. Scientists agree that the strain in Europe was tougher to manage.
This is the strain that entered the US mainly via New Jersey and New York. The
Asia strain entered the US mainly via the West Coast. Thinking out loud, the
virus lingering in North, Central and South America may be the worst strain of
the coronavirus to date. Poor Mexico is slapped horrendously by the coronavirus.
Several US
states remain in tenuous control of the virus such as New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Others are knee-deep in coronavirus
excrement. The states below are in the worst shape with the most troubled regions
at the bottom of the list with the flattening of their bell curves not expected
until well into August. Of the 27 states listed below, 22 are not expected to
peak out on the active cases bell curve (maximum strain on medical system)
until August. America is in deep trouble and just think, the new cases lag by
two or three weeks so there is likely lots of covid pain ahead for the USA
during July and August. Uncle Sam slips on a banana peel and lands in the
alleyway dumpster. Yesterday’s batter grease, smelly noodles and rancid lettuce
soil the stars and stripes.
Perhaps
President Trump will increase his efforts to combat the virus that is
officially out of control whether he wants to hear the news or not. Trump
cannot repeat the line that the death rate is decreasing because it is not true
as explained above. The president’s reelection hopes are on the line; his best
course of action is to double-down on handling the virus and let the American
people see that hard work.
Donnie does
not understand the nuance that people will respect someone trying hard even if
it does not work out well. What is not tolerated by Americans is someone who
sits around in the background criticizing and threatening everyone and not
contributing in a positive way to solving the problem. Donnie needs to hang up
the golf clubs and wrestle the virus firsthand and visibly; citizens, which are
voters, will respect that even if things do not go well. The coronavirus
message has been muddled over the last two months in part because of the
president refusing to wear a face mask and his disagreements with information
provided by doctors and scientists. These theatrics perpetuate the ongoing
chaos and confusion. Hollywood Don sure has a flair for the dramatic.
Below is a list of the most troubled US states.
Below is a list of the most troubled US states.
Maryland
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/19/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/16/20 (as of 7/14/20, chart continues higher)
Virginia
(data is suspect)
New Case
Peak Date 5/26/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (as of 7/14/20, chart continues higher)
New Mexico
New Case
Peak Date 6/10/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/8/20 (as of 7/14/20, chart continues higher)
Nevada
New Case
Peak Date 6/27/20
Projected Active
Case Peak Date 7/25/20 (as of 7/14/20, chart continues higher)
Arizona
New Case
Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 7/29/20
Kentucky
New Case
Peak Date 7/6/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/3/20
Missouri
New Case
Peak Date 7/7/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/4/20
Oklahoma
New Case
Peak Date 7/7/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/4/20
Texas
New Case
Peak Date 7/9/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/6/20
Alabama
New Case
Peak Date 7/9/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/6/20
Montana
New Case
Peak Date 7/10/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Utah
New Case
Peak Date 7/10/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/7/20
California
New Case
Peak Date 7/10/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Georgia
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Louisiana
New Case
Peak Date 7/10/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Ohio
New Case
Peak Date 7/10/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Oregon
New Case
Peak Date 7/11/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Arkansas
New Case
Peak Date 7/11/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Wisconsin
New Case
Peak Date 7/11/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/8/20
South
Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 7/11/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Idaho
New Case
Peak Date 7/11/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/8/20
North
Carolina
New Case
Peak Date 7/11/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Alaska
New Case
Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/9/20
Florida
(republican convention (RNC) is in Florida starting 8/24/20)
New Case
Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/9/20
Tennessee
New Case
Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20
Washington
(state)
New Case
Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20
Kansas
New Case
Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 8/10/20
It is
interesting to see the shuffling of the deck chairs over the last 10 days.
Florida, Texas, California and Arizona have dominated the news over the last
two weeks since they see the most rapid spikes in new and active cases. However,
look at the carnage above. Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the
Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah,
Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky join the coronavirus
cesspool. These 23 states are the worst coronavirus states in America
currently. The active cases bell curves will not peak-out and roll over until
early and middle August and this occurs only if the new cases immediately stop
increasing.
For any
state that has not yet reached its peak in the active case curve, simply
identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project
when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the
Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s
number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the
new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load.
The virus
worsens sharply in Ohio, Tennessee, Washington, Georgia, Louisiana, Alaska,
Idaho and Wisconsin. Ohio is one of the key battleground states for the
presidential election. As a rule, a president does not win the election unless Ohio
is a win so the handling of the virus for the next 112 days in the Buckeye
state will impact the election.
Wisconsin
also takes a sharp dip to the virus dark side over the last week or so. The DNC
convention (democrats) is mid-August in Milwaukee but most of it will be
conducted virtually which appears to be a good decision. Trump’s decision
moving the RNC convention from North Carolina to Florida was boneheaded. Republicans
may have to go virtual as well despite Trump’s misgivings. As mentioned above,
Miami is a pandemic epicenter and southern Texas is hit hard as well.
After six
months of knowing that there was a problem with a pneumonia-like disease
spreading in Wuhan, China, home of two bioweapons laboratories, the United
States is in the worst shape to date. Coronavirus is spreading out of control
over the last couple weeks. Early June was only a temporary lull period; it was thought
to be the light at the end of the tunnel but it turned out to be an oncoming
freight train loaded with coronavirus.
Americans
are experiencing stress and anxiety these days. Lives are a lot
different now than at the start of the year; vastly different. It takes a while
for the human mind to accept and deal with the pandemic. The school situation
is adding huge stress to people’s lives. Folks cannot work unless the kids are
in school. There are no easy answers. As the charts and article explain above,
the US is in for a difficult slog over the next six weeks or more.
In a few
days, instead of Florida, Texas, Arizona and California the main focal points,
the news media will begin focusing on the problems in Kansas, Washington state,
Tennessee and Alaska. Medical personnel in these states will likely begin
telling horror stories about rapid increases in virus patients.
The main
cause of angst in the public domain is the constant confusion. Doctors and
scientists do not fully understand the virus as yet and uncertainty breeds speculation
and fear. If the virus cannot be contained because of its airborne nature, can
the US, or other nations, continue digging deep holes of financial debt, to keep companies and individuals afloat, that future generations will have to pay back?
Humorously, in this time of tragedy, if the young folks realize what is being
done to their futures, they may actively seek parties, bars, concerts and other ways to contract the
virus so they can then spread it to the older folks, that have far higher death
rates, that straddled them with the enormous US debt. Payback's a b*tch.
Note Added 6:28 PM EST: President Trump conducts a press conference on the Whitehouse lawn, without a mask, to discuss China and Hong Kong and probably the coronavirus The president begins by berating Biden which sounds like a campaign speech. It is. Trump says the relationship with China has changed. The president reviews the coronavirus timeline of course only highlighting certain points that benefit himself. Trump does not spend much time on the coronavirus. He can talk about what he wants. He owns the bully pulpit. Trump takes a couple of questions from journalists and the answers are spun for an election advantage. The presser is not a covid update; it was more of a campaign speech for about one hour. Trump is rambling a bit and it appears that he may be tired or simply he had a long day; low energy is what he would call it. Surprisingly, he does not discuss more details concerning schools reopening. The death numbers games continue. Since the US new cases and active cases continue ramping higher, and the deaths on a day to day, 3-day MA and 7-day MA basis head higher, the president is searching for positive talking points. The latest is that the deaths now are nowhere near the peak in April in fact they are a 10-fold reduction. From the chart above, the peak deaths are on 4/21/20 at 2,749 souls. Yesterday, deaths are at 465 so that is a 6-fold reduction not 10. There were 993 deaths on 7/7/20 only seven days ago which is a 2.8 to 1 ratio call it a 3-fold reduction. A couple days ago is 380 deaths so that is a 7-fold decrease. Thus, the 10-fold drop is another fib by King Donnie; let's call it an embellishment. He would be correct and honest if he said deaths are a 3 to 7-fold decrease off the April highs. Assessing the data further, look at those two low days of deaths in the 260's on the Independence Day holiday (Saturday) and Sunday, 7/4/20 and 7/5/20. This is where that 10-fold stat comes from. It only occurred on two days, the weekend of the July 4 holiday when numbers were not being reported! The deaths ramped higher after the holiday was over. This is the tiny loin cloth that Trump and Pence are trying to cover their flabby behinds with. If Trump would have made the 10-fold reduction in deaths claim during a July 4 holiday speech he would have been correct but he is incorrect now. You are now well versed on understanding the US death numbers spin from both political parties. It is always entertaining watching humans compromise their souls. Biopharma company Moderna announces promising results with its vaccine development. MRNA stock catapults over +15% higher in afterhours trading adding to the +5% gain during the regular trading session. Stock market futures are up nearly +1% with investors and traders celebrating the vaccine news. Americans are becoming worried that the $600 extra government payments above unemployment insurance will run out in two weeks. The democrats and republicans have not met to iron out the next stimulus bill. Stocks rally anticipating another big money parade. Trump and the Republican Tribe want a $1 trillion package while Speaker Pelosi and the Democrat Tribe want a $3 trillion package so it will likely end up as $2 trillion but the question is what will be in the plan?. Oh no. Texas is reporting a new record day of virus cases. Adding 28 days means the Lone Star state will not peak out on the active cases bell curve chart until 8/11/20. Good luck, pardner.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/15/20, at 5:51 AM EST: MRNA is up +17% in the pre-market. The Moderna news is comical. It is actually the same-o news from a month or so ago that popped the stock. That previous news is the leak of the story that now appears officially in print. Patients developed antibodies is the lead of the story and great news. Last night the media proclaimed the vaccine has no side effects. As it turns out, the side effects are severe for a few patients although most tolerated the treatment well. Some showed flu-like symptoms like chills and others show redness at the injection site but the news is encouraging overall. As was previously leaked, the next trial is the biggie, with about 30K people involved, and will begin this month (July). US futures are up from +0.3% to +0.9% so modest gains are on tap today buoyed by the happy Moderna vaccine talk. The CDC says only 75% of people are wearing face coverings (masks). Why would they? Trump does not wear a mask and people take the easy way out saying if Donnie does not need a mask, neither do I. The Florida worries continue. The median age of a coronavirus patient now is 41 years old. For the last couple weeks, the median age was far lower mainly the younger kids, in their 20's and 30's, from the beach parties and bars. The patient age moving higher is very alarming since that will lead to an increase of deaths and lasting morbidities. The Whitehouse is attacking Fauci with subtle digs in the media. Fauci says the efforts to discredit him are "bizarre." Oklahoma republican Governor Stitt, who is against wearing masks, tests positive for the virus. He attended Trump's rally in Tulsa but the republican spin says the convention activities through late June did not infect him and Trump is not exposed to the virus. In an alarming development, the Whitehouse wants the virus data to go to them first and not the CDC. Trump apparently wants to control the message rather than the virus as if America is a communist state. Things are getting strange. The Whitehouse abandons this path after receiving blowback, however, some data goes missing and more questions arise about the validity of data overall. The republicans finally balk with the RNC convention coming up in Florida next month and announce that the event will be scaled back in some manner.
Note Added Thursday, 7/16/20: Parts of Australia are going into lockdown again; they are in winter season. Doctors and scientists say folks with Type A blood have a more difficult time with the virus than those with Type O. Georgia republican Governor Kemp is suing the democrat Atlanta Mayor Bottoms, a vice presidential candidate, over her mandate to wear masks. Kemp encourages mask-wearing but does not want to mandate the requirement. New cases continue higher in Georgia. Americans are voicing more concern about how the pandemic has become completely political and things are spiraling out of control.
Note Added Friday, 7/17/20: President Trump is interviewed by Sean Hannity on Fox News which is a right-leaning cable news outlet friendly to Don. The president is in typical form saying he believes in masks but in the same breath proclaiming, "I don't think masks slow the virus." Americans are in a state of confusion. Trump remains in denial concerning the severity of the virus and continues downplaying the pandemic. This will not engender him to the black and Latino communities (think November election) that are seeing far more covid deaths than white folks. Trump cannot bully, intimidate or insult the virus into submission as is his strategy with political rivals; the virus does not care what he says. Ironically, it seems the more Donnie downplays the virus, the bigger bite it takes. New coronavirus cases explode higher to 74,987 the highest number of the year and three days in a row above 70K. There is no national plan. May the Lord Have Mercy on Our Souls.
Note Added Saturday, 7/18/20: Dr Fauci says New York handled the pandemic properly but how can that be when sick elderly patients were sent back to nursing homes which infected many others including staff resulting in over 10K deaths? Maybe New York Governor Cuomo gave Fauci 20 bucks to say those kind words. Florida reports over 10K new cases and several dozen deaths. Protests and riots continue in Portland, Oregon. The governors, senators and mayors do not want the federal government to send in forces but Trump does anyway. Two of these mysterious camo figures, only with the word "POLICE" visible in small print on their chest pocket, do not identify themselves verbally when asked to do so and whisk away a protester in an unmarked SUV (a rental vehicle). It did not take long for the US to become China or Russia picking up people off the street without probable cause or allowing due process. Oh well, such is America these days. The two camo figures are found to be Federal forces sent into Portland by the president. Federal agents arrested a few other protesters; no one knows where the people are held or if they will go to jail. As the demonstrators catch wind that Trump has sent Federal agents into Portland, the distrust and violence increases. Trump vows to send in Federal agents to other cities. Peaceful protests are being hijacked by anarchists but enforcing communist-style tactics is not the way to go. Trump is fighting a culture war and framing this battle for the election, however, this is not the case. The protests will likely morph into a class war rich versus poor over the coming months and years rather than a racial divide. A secret red zone report from the Whitehouse surfaces and calls out 18 states as in a 'red zone' and likely requiring a move back to lockdown (the red zone term comes from American football, the NFL, and describes the 20 yards (18.3 m) of field in front of the touchdown zones; this is where the biggest fight between the defensive team that is trying to stop a touchdown and the offensive team that is trying to score a touchdown occurs; it is the more intense area of the playing field where the biggest fight is occurring). The testing criteria the red zone report uses to identify troubled states is a positivity rate of over 10%. They should recheck the data since Pennsylvania is not included and it is pushing 11%. MIami-Dade County, a hot spot in Florida, is testing at over a 27% positivity rate. Isn't it rich that King Donnie and Prince Pence conduct press conferences to inform the public and they hide the red zone data which is the stuff they should be providing. The trust factor with Donnie is going downhill. Testing problems continue and worsen now that the pandemic is spreading across the southern and western states. The testing program is a mess. If a test takes longer than five days for results, it is worthless since the person likely has spread the disease by the time they test positive.
Note Added Sunday, 7/19/20: According to China, a new covid virus may be occurring in Kazakhstan. People are dying of a pneumonia-like disease at a high rate but officials are pushing back against the Chinese claims calling the disease a standard pneumonia. Did the filthy Chinese communists release a new bug in Kazakhstan? Congress returns tomorrow and the new stimulus bill is front and center. Trump wants a payroll tax cut in the package. Trump is against providing more money for tracking and tracing the coronavirus which boggles the mind. King Donnie keeps pushing the narrative that the pandemic is overblown and healthy people will have no problem dealing with the infection if it occurs. The CDC says the US COVID-19 death count will surpass 157K by early August. Donnie, 160K Americans are dead on your watch from covid. Shamefully, hospitals across the United States continue experiencing shortage of PPE (personal protective equipment). There is no excuse except lack of leadership and incompetence. It is sickening and embarrassing. The coronavirus pandemic is in chaos and confusion. Trump went golfing yesterday. Donnie thought long and hard about those 160K American deaths as he sliced his tee shot off number one. No wonder his approval ratings are going downhill. Donnie needs to jump in and do something if he wants to win reelection. The president can learn from John Maynard Keynes who was confronted by a detractor for being wrong with his economic forecasts and changing direction. Keynes responded to the man by saying, "When the facts change, I change my mind--what do you do, sir?" President Trump says 99.7% of people that get the virus have no problems at all. He says most of the covid cases are only "sniffles." Of course he makes the number up out of whole cloth but everyone expects that now. Trump says Fauci is an alarmist. Trump and Fauci have made numerous mistakes this year.
Note Added Monday, 7/20/20: An Argentina mystery is occurring. 57 sailors out of a total of 61 on a fishing trolley crew contract coronavirus. The odd thing is that the crew was quarantined for 14 days and all tested negative before the trip occurred. The crew spent a month at sea after which nearly the whole ship became ill with covid. No one can figure out how it happened. Some supplies were delivered out to the boat from ports but it remains a mystery how the virus could spreads so quickly and in an unknown way. As a general rule of thumb, a nation, city or region may be forced to go into lockdown when the number of cases exceed 25 per 1,000 people. The USA is at about 12 cases per 1K people. Florida is about 17 cases per 1K and Texas is about 12 cases per 1K people. A goal of doctors and scientists is to have less than 10 deaths per 100,000 people. Less than one death per 100,000 people would be fantastic and get life back to normal, whatever that is post-covid. The Oxford and Astrazeneca partnership reports encouraging results with its vaccine drug. AZN crumbles -4% so the announcement was a sell-the-news event. President Trump releases a picture of himself wearing a face mask and he tweets that masks are patriotic. Donnie finally capitulates; he knows the election is on the line and the perception of his handling of the coronavirus is poor. Trump flip-flops now taking the virus more seriously after he and Pence downplayed COVID-19 claiming mission accomplished. Pence will have to be a good little lackey now and capitulate as well and tout great things about always wearing a face mask here forward. Trump says the 5 PM EST coronavirus press conferences will begin again tomorrow. The president clearly knows that he must appear as a leader and helping to solve the virus problem instead of fighting a media spin battle. The proof is in the pudding and tomorrow the media will be eagerly awaiting the press conference. If Donnie walks on stage donning a mask (he is trying to get back in the virus game and to his credit, if anyone can pull it off, and appear in charge and doing good again, it is the president), people will likely trust him again and his approval poll numbers will probably stabilize and increase. If, however, the president pulls a Donnie instead, and shows up at the presser without donning a mouth diaper, his words will be viewed as more hollow rhetoric and gamesmanship and the poll numbers will flounder. The presidential reality television show continues. Tune in for tomorrow's episode when we find out if Donnie dons a face mask, or not.
Note Added 6:28 PM EST: President Trump conducts a press conference on the Whitehouse lawn, without a mask, to discuss China and Hong Kong and probably the coronavirus The president begins by berating Biden which sounds like a campaign speech. It is. Trump says the relationship with China has changed. The president reviews the coronavirus timeline of course only highlighting certain points that benefit himself. Trump does not spend much time on the coronavirus. He can talk about what he wants. He owns the bully pulpit. Trump takes a couple of questions from journalists and the answers are spun for an election advantage. The presser is not a covid update; it was more of a campaign speech for about one hour. Trump is rambling a bit and it appears that he may be tired or simply he had a long day; low energy is what he would call it. Surprisingly, he does not discuss more details concerning schools reopening. The death numbers games continue. Since the US new cases and active cases continue ramping higher, and the deaths on a day to day, 3-day MA and 7-day MA basis head higher, the president is searching for positive talking points. The latest is that the deaths now are nowhere near the peak in April in fact they are a 10-fold reduction. From the chart above, the peak deaths are on 4/21/20 at 2,749 souls. Yesterday, deaths are at 465 so that is a 6-fold reduction not 10. There were 993 deaths on 7/7/20 only seven days ago which is a 2.8 to 1 ratio call it a 3-fold reduction. A couple days ago is 380 deaths so that is a 7-fold decrease. Thus, the 10-fold drop is another fib by King Donnie; let's call it an embellishment. He would be correct and honest if he said deaths are a 3 to 7-fold decrease off the April highs. Assessing the data further, look at those two low days of deaths in the 260's on the Independence Day holiday (Saturday) and Sunday, 7/4/20 and 7/5/20. This is where that 10-fold stat comes from. It only occurred on two days, the weekend of the July 4 holiday when numbers were not being reported! The deaths ramped higher after the holiday was over. This is the tiny loin cloth that Trump and Pence are trying to cover their flabby behinds with. If Trump would have made the 10-fold reduction in deaths claim during a July 4 holiday speech he would have been correct but he is incorrect now. You are now well versed on understanding the US death numbers spin from both political parties. It is always entertaining watching humans compromise their souls. Biopharma company Moderna announces promising results with its vaccine development. MRNA stock catapults over +15% higher in afterhours trading adding to the +5% gain during the regular trading session. Stock market futures are up nearly +1% with investors and traders celebrating the vaccine news. Americans are becoming worried that the $600 extra government payments above unemployment insurance will run out in two weeks. The democrats and republicans have not met to iron out the next stimulus bill. Stocks rally anticipating another big money parade. Trump and the Republican Tribe want a $1 trillion package while Speaker Pelosi and the Democrat Tribe want a $3 trillion package so it will likely end up as $2 trillion but the question is what will be in the plan?. Oh no. Texas is reporting a new record day of virus cases. Adding 28 days means the Lone Star state will not peak out on the active cases bell curve chart until 8/11/20. Good luck, pardner.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/15/20, at 5:51 AM EST: MRNA is up +17% in the pre-market. The Moderna news is comical. It is actually the same-o news from a month or so ago that popped the stock. That previous news is the leak of the story that now appears officially in print. Patients developed antibodies is the lead of the story and great news. Last night the media proclaimed the vaccine has no side effects. As it turns out, the side effects are severe for a few patients although most tolerated the treatment well. Some showed flu-like symptoms like chills and others show redness at the injection site but the news is encouraging overall. As was previously leaked, the next trial is the biggie, with about 30K people involved, and will begin this month (July). US futures are up from +0.3% to +0.9% so modest gains are on tap today buoyed by the happy Moderna vaccine talk. The CDC says only 75% of people are wearing face coverings (masks). Why would they? Trump does not wear a mask and people take the easy way out saying if Donnie does not need a mask, neither do I. The Florida worries continue. The median age of a coronavirus patient now is 41 years old. For the last couple weeks, the median age was far lower mainly the younger kids, in their 20's and 30's, from the beach parties and bars. The patient age moving higher is very alarming since that will lead to an increase of deaths and lasting morbidities. The Whitehouse is attacking Fauci with subtle digs in the media. Fauci says the efforts to discredit him are "bizarre." Oklahoma republican Governor Stitt, who is against wearing masks, tests positive for the virus. He attended Trump's rally in Tulsa but the republican spin says the convention activities through late June did not infect him and Trump is not exposed to the virus. In an alarming development, the Whitehouse wants the virus data to go to them first and not the CDC. Trump apparently wants to control the message rather than the virus as if America is a communist state. Things are getting strange. The Whitehouse abandons this path after receiving blowback, however, some data goes missing and more questions arise about the validity of data overall. The republicans finally balk with the RNC convention coming up in Florida next month and announce that the event will be scaled back in some manner.
Note Added Thursday, 7/16/20: Parts of Australia are going into lockdown again; they are in winter season. Doctors and scientists say folks with Type A blood have a more difficult time with the virus than those with Type O. Georgia republican Governor Kemp is suing the democrat Atlanta Mayor Bottoms, a vice presidential candidate, over her mandate to wear masks. Kemp encourages mask-wearing but does not want to mandate the requirement. New cases continue higher in Georgia. Americans are voicing more concern about how the pandemic has become completely political and things are spiraling out of control.
Note Added Friday, 7/17/20: President Trump is interviewed by Sean Hannity on Fox News which is a right-leaning cable news outlet friendly to Don. The president is in typical form saying he believes in masks but in the same breath proclaiming, "I don't think masks slow the virus." Americans are in a state of confusion. Trump remains in denial concerning the severity of the virus and continues downplaying the pandemic. This will not engender him to the black and Latino communities (think November election) that are seeing far more covid deaths than white folks. Trump cannot bully, intimidate or insult the virus into submission as is his strategy with political rivals; the virus does not care what he says. Ironically, it seems the more Donnie downplays the virus, the bigger bite it takes. New coronavirus cases explode higher to 74,987 the highest number of the year and three days in a row above 70K. There is no national plan. May the Lord Have Mercy on Our Souls.
Note Added Saturday, 7/18/20: Dr Fauci says New York handled the pandemic properly but how can that be when sick elderly patients were sent back to nursing homes which infected many others including staff resulting in over 10K deaths? Maybe New York Governor Cuomo gave Fauci 20 bucks to say those kind words. Florida reports over 10K new cases and several dozen deaths. Protests and riots continue in Portland, Oregon. The governors, senators and mayors do not want the federal government to send in forces but Trump does anyway. Two of these mysterious camo figures, only with the word "POLICE" visible in small print on their chest pocket, do not identify themselves verbally when asked to do so and whisk away a protester in an unmarked SUV (a rental vehicle). It did not take long for the US to become China or Russia picking up people off the street without probable cause or allowing due process. Oh well, such is America these days. The two camo figures are found to be Federal forces sent into Portland by the president. Federal agents arrested a few other protesters; no one knows where the people are held or if they will go to jail. As the demonstrators catch wind that Trump has sent Federal agents into Portland, the distrust and violence increases. Trump vows to send in Federal agents to other cities. Peaceful protests are being hijacked by anarchists but enforcing communist-style tactics is not the way to go. Trump is fighting a culture war and framing this battle for the election, however, this is not the case. The protests will likely morph into a class war rich versus poor over the coming months and years rather than a racial divide. A secret red zone report from the Whitehouse surfaces and calls out 18 states as in a 'red zone' and likely requiring a move back to lockdown (the red zone term comes from American football, the NFL, and describes the 20 yards (18.3 m) of field in front of the touchdown zones; this is where the biggest fight between the defensive team that is trying to stop a touchdown and the offensive team that is trying to score a touchdown occurs; it is the more intense area of the playing field where the biggest fight is occurring). The testing criteria the red zone report uses to identify troubled states is a positivity rate of over 10%. They should recheck the data since Pennsylvania is not included and it is pushing 11%. MIami-Dade County, a hot spot in Florida, is testing at over a 27% positivity rate. Isn't it rich that King Donnie and Prince Pence conduct press conferences to inform the public and they hide the red zone data which is the stuff they should be providing. The trust factor with Donnie is going downhill. Testing problems continue and worsen now that the pandemic is spreading across the southern and western states. The testing program is a mess. If a test takes longer than five days for results, it is worthless since the person likely has spread the disease by the time they test positive.
Note Added Sunday, 7/19/20: According to China, a new covid virus may be occurring in Kazakhstan. People are dying of a pneumonia-like disease at a high rate but officials are pushing back against the Chinese claims calling the disease a standard pneumonia. Did the filthy Chinese communists release a new bug in Kazakhstan? Congress returns tomorrow and the new stimulus bill is front and center. Trump wants a payroll tax cut in the package. Trump is against providing more money for tracking and tracing the coronavirus which boggles the mind. King Donnie keeps pushing the narrative that the pandemic is overblown and healthy people will have no problem dealing with the infection if it occurs. The CDC says the US COVID-19 death count will surpass 157K by early August. Donnie, 160K Americans are dead on your watch from covid. Shamefully, hospitals across the United States continue experiencing shortage of PPE (personal protective equipment). There is no excuse except lack of leadership and incompetence. It is sickening and embarrassing. The coronavirus pandemic is in chaos and confusion. Trump went golfing yesterday. Donnie thought long and hard about those 160K American deaths as he sliced his tee shot off number one. No wonder his approval ratings are going downhill. Donnie needs to jump in and do something if he wants to win reelection. The president can learn from John Maynard Keynes who was confronted by a detractor for being wrong with his economic forecasts and changing direction. Keynes responded to the man by saying, "When the facts change, I change my mind--what do you do, sir?" President Trump says 99.7% of people that get the virus have no problems at all. He says most of the covid cases are only "sniffles." Of course he makes the number up out of whole cloth but everyone expects that now. Trump says Fauci is an alarmist. Trump and Fauci have made numerous mistakes this year.
Note Added Monday, 7/20/20: An Argentina mystery is occurring. 57 sailors out of a total of 61 on a fishing trolley crew contract coronavirus. The odd thing is that the crew was quarantined for 14 days and all tested negative before the trip occurred. The crew spent a month at sea after which nearly the whole ship became ill with covid. No one can figure out how it happened. Some supplies were delivered out to the boat from ports but it remains a mystery how the virus could spreads so quickly and in an unknown way. As a general rule of thumb, a nation, city or region may be forced to go into lockdown when the number of cases exceed 25 per 1,000 people. The USA is at about 12 cases per 1K people. Florida is about 17 cases per 1K and Texas is about 12 cases per 1K people. A goal of doctors and scientists is to have less than 10 deaths per 100,000 people. Less than one death per 100,000 people would be fantastic and get life back to normal, whatever that is post-covid. The Oxford and Astrazeneca partnership reports encouraging results with its vaccine drug. AZN crumbles -4% so the announcement was a sell-the-news event. President Trump releases a picture of himself wearing a face mask and he tweets that masks are patriotic. Donnie finally capitulates; he knows the election is on the line and the perception of his handling of the coronavirus is poor. Trump flip-flops now taking the virus more seriously after he and Pence downplayed COVID-19 claiming mission accomplished. Pence will have to be a good little lackey now and capitulate as well and tout great things about always wearing a face mask here forward. Trump says the 5 PM EST coronavirus press conferences will begin again tomorrow. The president clearly knows that he must appear as a leader and helping to solve the virus problem instead of fighting a media spin battle. The proof is in the pudding and tomorrow the media will be eagerly awaiting the press conference. If Donnie walks on stage donning a mask (he is trying to get back in the virus game and to his credit, if anyone can pull it off, and appear in charge and doing good again, it is the president), people will likely trust him again and his approval poll numbers will probably stabilize and increase. If, however, the president pulls a Donnie instead, and shows up at the presser without donning a mouth diaper, his words will be viewed as more hollow rhetoric and gamesmanship and the poll numbers will flounder. The presidential reality television show continues. Tune in for tomorrow's episode when we find out if Donnie dons a face mask, or not.
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