Sunday, July 31, 2011

Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 8-1-11

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

The markets are at the mercy of the news wires and as of Sunday evening, the futures are up strongly; President Obama announced an agreement.  This will dominate Monday’s action.

Potential market pivots occur at the ISM manufacturing data at 10 AM Monday morning, the ECB rate decision on Thursday morning and Jobs Report on Friday morning.

Earnings this week in pharma, shipping, water, utilities, infrastructure and commodities dominate the picture.

Continue to watch for margin requirements to be raised in the oil and commodities sector. This will hit as a surprise to many traders with prices falling abruptly. Prices should pull back early this week due to the debt ceiling resolution.  Any positive Euro news or the raising of margin requirements would drive the PM’s much lower.

Markets are now under the influence of a major Bradley turn window until Friday.  With the pop in the futures showing a Monday bounce, perhaps the trend change will be up.

Keystone’s ‘Short Term’ Key Dates and Market Movers Week of 8/1/11 and on:

·         Monday, 8/1/11: ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending 10 AM.  3 and 6-month bill auctions 11:30 AM. A major Bradley turn window is now open until Friday so expect a major trend change this week. Debt Crisis Solution vote. Earnings: ACOR, AES, ALGN, ALKS, CTRP, FMC, FST, HLF, HUM, MELA, HK, SJT, SIGA, SINA, MOBI, SKY, SNCR, TELK, TNH, TIE, VVUS, VNO.
·         Tuesday, 8/2/11: Debt Crisis Deadline set by Geithner. Motor vehicle sales.  Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM. 4-week bill auction 11:30 AM.  Earnings: AFFY, MDRX, AMT, ADM, BDX, CBS, CEPH, CKP, COH, CTSH, DRYS, DUK, EMR, ESLR, EXPD, FWLT, GGP, GMO, HRS, HW, H, KLIC, MRO, MRX, PH, PEET, PFE, QUIK, SIRI, SONS, SYNM, THC, TRMB, WTS, WTS, WBMD.
·         Wednesday, 8/3/11: Mortgage Applications 7 AM.  Challenger Report 7:30 AM.  ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM. Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg 10 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings: FEED, AGN, AFAM, ANDE, NLY, WTR, ATLS, BRKR, CADX, LNG, CQB, CLX, CEG, DNDN, EGLE, EMKR, GRMN, GDP, SOLR, HIG, IMGN, IDN, ICE, IPI, KKR, MMC, WFR, MELI, NANX, OPTR, PWR, BID, SWC, TSLA, THOR, TRW, VG, WLT, ZIP.
·         Thursday, 8/4/11: ECB Rate Decision. Monster Employment Index 6 AM. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.  Natty Inventories 10:30 AM.  Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM. Earnings: AONE, ASEI, APA, ED, COR, CVS, DF, DSX, EIX, EP, ENP, ERII, FTWR, FSLR, FLR, FO, RAIL, FCN, GM, HANS, HUN, IMMR, ISIS, JRCC, MNKD, MCHX, MCHP, PACB, PAR, PGN, SD, SGEN, LUV, SEP, SPPI, SUN, SFY, TDW, WNR, ZBRA.
·         Friday, 8/5/11: Employment Report 8:30 AM. Consumer Credit 3 PM. Earnings: BPL, EOG, GXP, HL, IPSU, OREX, OSIR, PG, WTW.
·         Tuesday, 8/9/11:  Fed FOMC Rate Decision and Policy. No rate change expected. Traders will be listening for QE3 talk.
·         Saturday, 8/20/11: Bradley turn date 8/20 so a window opens for a market trend change between 8/12 and 8/26.

Keystone’s Short Term to ‘Intermediate Term’ Key Dates and Market Movers for August  and on:

·         Earnings:  Earnings season should match or exceed expectations as typically is the case. Carefully watch the top line revenue numbers since the beats are by no means spectacular sans AAPL. Earnings meet or beat and positive guidance will provide the bulls with market buoyancy, or visa versa.
·         QE3:  Quantitative easing, QE2, ended 6/30/11.  Chairman Bernanke took away the punch bowl that elevated equities markets like clockwork between 10:00 and 11:30 AM each session. Once the equities markets fall again, like July-August 2010, the Fed will step in with QE3.  For now, a QE light is in place with continuing operations and the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).  Watch out for raising margin requirements that will dampen commodity enthusiasm.  Tentative projection for QE3 is September 2011. Watch as the dollar index moves up in the weeks ahead, this will be an initial signal that Chairman Bernanke will come back into the markets with more quantitative easing.
·         FOMC Meetings and Rate Decisions:  8/9/11; 9/20/11; 11/1-2/11; 12/13/11. Fed should keep the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) in place for the foreseeable future. Of interest is the 9/20/11 meeting which is a potential target date for a QE3 announcement.
·         Congress to Raise Debt Ceiling/U.S. Downgrade: President Obama announces an agreement Sunday evening 7/31/11. Rating agencies may downgrade the U.S. debt; this is the ongoing story. Short term the markets are happy over the debt ceiling raise but intermediate term the markets will sadden as the downgrade talk continues.
·         Congress In or Out of Session:  Market bullish when not in session, market bearish when in session. Congress is in session due to debt ceiling deadline, so market bearish.
·         Europe Debt Crisis Continues:  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIIGS). The five little piggies.  Italy’s bad paper may become exposed due to Libyan War.  Greece paper probably worth 30 cents on the dollar, Ireland 50 cents, Portugal 85 cents but no one knows for sure. Greece, Ireland and Portugal are currently in stabilization programs. Spain’s high unemployment is an issue. The can was kicked down the road for Greece.  Italy, Portugal and Spain all looking ugly.  Weaker euro=stronger dollar=weaker commodities=weaker U.S. equities. Gold continues to bounce on any negative Euro news.
·         ECB Rate Hikes:  Trichet announces next rate decisions 8/4/11, 9/8/11, 10/6/11, 11/3/11, 12/8/11, 1/12/12.  Past decisions are a 25 bip hike 7/7/11. No change occurred 6/9/11 or 5/5/11. 25 bip hike on 4/7/11. When Trichet says ‘strong vigilance’ that means a rate hike and the euro will be stronger.  Trichet may have unwittingly called another top in the commodities markets just like he mistakenly did by raising rates at the wrong time in July 2008, time will tell.  Trend has been euro up=dollar down=commodities up=equities up.  Euro is propped up by Trichet’s hawkishness.  If this should reverse, euro down=dollar up=commodities down=equities down. As a side note, the Chinese are now supporting the euro helping maintain equity buoyancy.
·         Ongoing Wars: Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. Libya is not a big oil producer; Saudi’s can easily step up production to handle any Libyan oil loss.  Any positive resolution to the Colonel Qaddafi situation will cause oil price to fall.  Rational price of oil is low to mid 80’s and with the SPR release, an 8 handle was touched but oil then recovered higher again.  Wars and M.E. problems continue=bullish for commodities, gold, silver and oil, or, visa versa.
·         Continuing Geopolitical Events other than Ongoing Wars: Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen, N. Korea:  Dollar bullish and equity bearish.  Gold, silver and oil bullish.  Bahrain is the big worry since, unlike Libya, further unrest will impact oil supply.  Yemen is important since it is a southern Saudi border. Syria news on unrest and riots keeps a fear premium built up for the Middle East.  Ramadan begins so demonstrations may increase in the evenings. News wires impact commodities in real time.  Any bad news=higher gold, silver and oil prices, or, visa versa.
·         State and Muni Crisis; Union Busting:  Muni’s should experience pain first.  Muni’s rely on State funds.  Many State fiscal budgets turn over NOW.  State funding of local municipality projects will be impacted.  Muni and State layoffs increasing. Colleges relied on State funds and tuition increases are already hitting cash-strapped students. Lingering unemployment lessens government tax inflows. U.S. will probably see an increase in the cash society since folks will find ways to avoid higher taxes, hurting government coffers rather than helping.  Multiple U.S. cities now experiencing budget fights and protests.  Governments trying to reduce burden of high union costs.  Watch to see if California financial decisions spook the country. State and Muni problems are an H2-2011 and 2012 story. Prices on MUB chart appear to be topping and ready to roll over again now like Fall 2010, thus, Meredith Whitney should be vindicated in the months ahead.
·         College Debt Bubble: Students continue to take on mountains of debt and cannot get a job after education. One poll cited 80% of college graduates moving back home to live with parents.  No effect near term but in the months forward the loan defaults will develop into a big problem. Now that State funding is being lost to colleges, tuition hikes are occurring, students now have to pay more for an education that no longer leads to a well-paying job.
·         China Property Bubble and China Contagion:  When it pops, anytime now, it will be extremely negative on global markets causing contagion in Asia and elsewhere. China has built uninhabited cities to fuel their explosive growth during this century. Some evidence of Chinese now using hoarded copper supplies as collateral to continue the building.  Additionally, China is now targeting margin regulations to slow down the commodities and PM bubbles. Further, months ago the analysts said a hard landing was out of the question, now those same voices are not so sure.  China growth rates are trailing off, there are only so many empty cities that you can build.  This is going to end very badly. Keystone agrees with Jim Chanos’ view on China. China bubble pops=global markets down.
·         PBOC; China Rate Hikes:  First hike 25 bps on 10/19/10; second hike 25 bps Christmas 12/25/10; third hike 25 bps China New Years on 2/8/11; fourth hike 25 bps on 4/5/11; fifth hike 25 bips 7/7/11.  China said in 2010 that it will project about five hikes into June 2011.  Hikes have occurred October, December, February, April and now July, so China should hold steady for the weeks and months ahead; there is a hint that one hike will occur by the end of the year, however. Bank reserve requirements are now ratcheting up continuously to slow down inflation but these appear to have less of an effect now.  Rate hikes cause commodities, gold, silver, PM’s and copper to sell off.   Typically, rising rates reflect a countries currency, economic and market strength, but, China growth is slowing now, not increasing, which creates an odd rate raising environment. Gold was unaffected by China’s latest hike and actually increased in price; this is due to the Euro news dominating the China rate hike moves.
·         China New Premier:  Chosen in 2012, will it be a smooth transition?
·         India, Brazil, Taiwan, South Korea and other Emerging Market Rate Hikes:  Same effects as China rate hikes; commodities will sell off.  China, India and Brazil hikes are most important to global markets. Some emerging countries now choosing to stay on hold reinforcing the belief that inflation is transitory in nature. Chairman Bernanke’s hot easy QE2 money pumped up emerging markets and commodities for the last ten months creating new asset bubbles.
·         Japan Disaster; Yen Currency Intervention:  The global markets are treating the quake/tsunami/nuclear disaster as a Japan problem with limited global impact.  The negative affects to the auto industry and technology, however, are now subsiding.  Japan is performing policy manipulation and coordinated currency intervention to target the 85-86 dollar/yen area.  This could not be maintained so far, or 83, or 81, now at the 80 and lower level.  Expect further coordinated intervention now. Dollar/yen up=dollar up=euro down=commodities down=equities down.
·         Oil; OPEC; Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR); Hurricane Season:  SPR oil release had little effect.  SPR hinted at no additional releases but the picture has again become cloudy so another release cannot be ruled out.  OPEC meeting 6/8/11 ended in mass confusion with lack of unified agreement on production, the producers will do whatever they want as they always have.  Hurricane season now so that may keep oil price buoyant but the season is very quiet thus far.  Higher oil supply=lower oil price. Hurricane=lower oil supply=higher oil price=good for construction material companies. Rational oil price is 80-85 but oil price will probably move across the low to mid 90’s as the year progresses, or lower. Watch for an announcement on raising margin requirements which will immediately slap down the oil price.
·         GSE (Government-Secured Enterprises): A decision will need to be made on extending the GSE limit of 730K; is it time to end this or will the limit be extended over and over again?  This should hurt the market since the GSE’s back 9 of every 10 mortgages. Now folks will have to go elsewhere to seek financing where the down payments are 25 to 30% down.  In essence, the demand will be reduced, thus, the market will tighten and house prices will continue lower moving forward. Keystone’s proprietary algorithm shows that housing has already fallen back into a double dip as of mid-May.
·         Wiki Leaks:  Embarrassing government information and bank information on ongoing basis, rumored to affect BAC most of all.  Weak financials places a cap on broad market upside and Keystone’s 2-10 Spread Indicator is well under 255 now indicating weakness for banksters will continue.
·         Eclipse Selloff Target Areas: Allow a week or so plus or minus on each side of the following dates as potential areas of major market selloffs. Note how the May and July targets were spot on.  This technique next targets the late October early November area as a potential large market selloff area.  5/15/11 (check, large sell off occurred May-June); 7/15/11 (check, large sell off occurred 7/8 thru 7/18); 11/3/11; 1/3/12.
·         Bradley Turn Dates: 7/29-30/11 (major turn area now); 8/20/11; 8/30/11; 9/26/11; 10/12/11; 10/28/11; 11/22-23/11; 12/28/11 (major turn area); 1/11/12. Typically allow a +/- 7 day window with actual turns usually occurring in closer to the actual date, say +/- 3 day window. Dates are courtesy of Donald Bradley, Peter Eliades and Arch Crawford; please reference their sites for additional information.

SPX S/R 8-1-11

SPX support and resistance is shown below.  For the Monday session, if the bulls can get above 1304, and the futures are up, the buyers will enter the markets in force, and an acceleration upward from there would be expected to test 1307, 1312, 1314, 1316.

If the debt ceiling talks break down overnight, and the futures reverse, the bears need to touch a 1282 handle, if they do, the selling will accelerate and fear will be in the markets, the indexes will fall several handles in short order.  A move thru the 1283-1303 range is sideways slop.

Some key levels are serving as S/R and of course, change slightly in real time so you have to watch them during trading hours:

20 day MA = 1325.18
20 week MA = 1318.23
150 day MA = 1310.71
50 day MA = 1309.14
10 month MA = 1288.24
200 day MA = 1284.84
50 week MA = 1258.67
Started 2011 = 1257.64
12 month MA = 1256.07 (a drop under here means the markets have fallen into a secular bear market again and expect many weeks and months ahead of lower equities markets)

·        1347
·        1344
·        1341
·        1337
·        1333
·        1331
·        1329
·        1326
·        1323
·        1321
·        1318
·        1316
·        1314
·        1312
·        1307
·        Friday HOD 1304.16
·        1300
·        1298
·        1295
·        1292
·        1289
·        1287
·        1286
·        Friday LOD 1282.86
·        1282
·        1281 (gap fill needed)
·        1280
·        1272-1273 (LT S/R)
·        1270
·        1268
·        1262
·        1258-1259 (1257.64 is the starting number for 2011)
·        1257 (3/16/11)
·        1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)
·        1249 (LOD 3/16/11)
·        1247
·        1242
·        1235 (12/15/10; also HOD 12/7/10 large volume)
·        1233 (LOD 12/16/11)
·        1227 (HOD 11/9/11)
·        1226 (11/5/11)
·        1224 (12/7/10 large volume)

Friday, July 29, 2011

Keystone's Market Action 7-29-11

Keep watching the SPX 10 month MA, now at 1288.11 as of this writing. The 200 day MA at 1284.84 is in play as well and price bounced off this level a short time ago, maintaining the 200 day MA as support just like the two tests in June. If the high 1280's hold, the indexes will at least stumble along sideways until the verdict with the debt ceiling is known.

Utes are holding up, UTIL now at 432, comfortably above the 412-416 danger zone, so the bulls have breathing room despite this morning's negativity. Copper remaining buoyant as well.

Impressive positive divergence now showing on weekly and daily financial and semiconductor charts, check out XLF, SOX, SMH, they are setting up for big bounces which would be contrary to this mornings negativity. Some traders no doubt bottom fishing in this area.

Markets are at the mercy of the news wires. EOM today.

Last print:
SPX 1289.58
10-month MA 1288.06
200-day MA 1284.83
50-week MA 1258.64
12-month MA 1255.93

Keystone's 2-10 Spread Indicator

We have watched the dance above and below Keystone's key 255 spread number for weeks now. Today is the lowest number in a long time; ten year is 2.89%, two year is 0.39%. Thus, 289-39=250.

250 basis points for the spread is bad news for equity bulls; a full five bips below Keystone's key 255 number that separates happy banksters from sad banksters.  The yield courve is not advantageous for the financials once the 255 spread is lost.  A sustained move at this 250 spread and lower projects further pain for the financials.

SPX S/R 7-29-11

The low GDP number placed markets in a nasty mood.  The 10 month MA at 1289 is a key level.  If 1289 holds, this sour start today would give way to support and index buoyancy, especially on any positive debt ceiling news. If 1289 is lost, the markets are in big trouble.  The 12 month MA, now at 1257 represents the markets falling back into secular bear markets; things will get very ugly.  This 1257-1259 support is also the starting year number.  1286-1287 is sturdy support, losing 1289 is a big negative, losing 1286 is a confirmation of huge trouble for equities. Strong support also exists at 1280 and a gap fill is needed at 1281. Losing the high 1280's is a game changer so watch that closely today. The projection is that it will hold at this support area, and if the politicians get their act together and release some happy news, this move down will be short-lived.  Consumer Sentimnet at 10 AM is a potential market pivot point. If we move under 1286-1289 we are all in a sinking equity boat and the situation will become serious.

·        1337
·        1333
·        1331
·        1329
·        1326
·        1323
·        1321
·        1318
·        1316
·        1314
·        1312
·        1307
·        1300
·        1298
·        1297 (gap fill needed)
·        1295
·        1292
·        1289
·        1287
·        1286
·        1282
·        1281 (gap fill needed)
·        1280
·        1272-1273 (LT S/R)
·        1270
·        1268
·        1262
·        1258-1259 (1257.64 is the starting number for 2011)
·        1257 (3/16/11)
·        1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)
·        1249 (LOD 3/16/11)
·        1247
·        1242
·        1235 (12/15/10; also HOD 12/7/10 large volume)
·        1233 (LOD 12/16/11)
·        1227 (HOD 11/9/11)
·        1226 (11/5/11)

MELA MELA Sciences Weekly Chart Oversold Falling Wedge Positive Divergence Gaps

MELA bounced a few days ago off the positive divergence on the daily chart. Here is the weekly chart showing positive divergence, falling wedge, oversold stochastics, all of which say that MELA has or is bottoming now and will see sustained upside for the months ahead. Note the February bounce out of the red falling wedge, this occurred due to the MACD and MACD histogram positive divergence, but, as seen above by the red lines, the RSI, stochastics and money flow all showed lower readings. The red circles were telling price that it can have a bounce now off the MACD but it needs to come back down for a lower low. Well, in June-July we got the lower low to satisfy the red circles.

Now you check the indicators again and the blue lines show positive divergence across the board, leading to the intial powerful pop last week. MELA is headed for sustained upside from here for the months ahead, the gaps at 3.8 and 5.0 are juicy targets. Watch for a potential mini-spank down from the 20 MA resistance at 2.9-ish, this would only give price a chance to pull back again to create a right shoulder for a bullish inverted H&S so watch for that. This H&S should it form will have a head at 2.2, neck line at 3.7, and would target 5.2 should the neck line give way to the upside. You can see how the 3.7-3.8 and 5.0-5.2 levels serve as attractive long term targets. Chart is set up nicely for a long term play. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.