Monday, July 18, 2011

Keystone's 2-10 Spread Indicator

10-year note is 2.88% and 2-year is 0.35%.  Thus, 288-35=253 spread, two digits below the critical 255 number, which spells further trouble for the banks.  This is an interesting back drop to start the week since financial and technology earnings dominate the coming days. The question is if bank earnings can help to increase confidence and nullify the affects of a falling spread.  Considering that JPM and C already released earnings last week, JPM beat, C beat but on closer inspection the news was not all that good, and now the spread dropped under 255, the banks are faltering here.  This week will tell the story; as the finanicals and technology goes, so goes the markets.

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