Friday, October 6, 2017

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

The 6 percentage-point reversals and 70% level are key for the BPSPX indicator. In May, the double-whammy sell signal was short lived. The bulls send the BPSPX above 70 for a buy signal and the 6-point reversal occurs in early July for the double-whammy buy signal.

The bears fight back in August sending the BPSPX under 70 for a sell signal and then under 69.5 for a double-whammy sell signal. The stock market bottoms in August and the bulls rally stocks higher. The BPSPX moves above the 70 level and prints a 6-point reversal during September for a double-whammy buy signal which remains in play. The bulls are unstoppable with the central bankers and happy tax-cut talk pumping stocks higher.


The bulls are in good shape unless the BPSPX slips under 70 which would be a sell signal. If the BPSPX drops under 66.80 (72.80-6.00) a double-whammy sell signal would occur. For now, the bulls rule the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Upward-Sloping Channel; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The SPX 2-hour chart is topping in the near-term. Note the firm negative divergence with the MACD, stochastics and money flow. The stoch's and RSI are overbot. The red rising wedge pattern is in play. Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 2517 and rising, at a minimum, would be needed. Price is at the top trend line of the upward-sloping blue channel and must decide to bounce above or die. All these factors are bearish.

The bulls are strong, however, and managed a higher high in the RSI. There is also some near-term juice in the MACD line. The SPX will not roll over until these two indicators go neggie d. Thus, a jog move is likely where price will fall for a candlestick, then come back up again for a higher high and at that time the RSI will likely roll over with neggie d and identify the near-term top. S&P futures are -1 about five hours before Wednesday's opening bell. 

So a jog move down then up then roll over, or, down then up then down then up then roll over is the likely outcome. The candlesticks are 2 hour trading increments. So the near term top for the stock market is from 2 to 8 hours away and more likely in about 4 hours which would be this afternoon.

Fed Chair Yellen speaks at 3:15 PM EST today with 45 minutes remaining before the closing bell. Yellen can extend the topping process by flapping her dovish wings. Always remember, the central bankers are the market. Otherwise, the expectation would be for stocks to top out today and fall into tomorrow.

The full moon peaks for the month at 2:40 PM tomorrow and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon. Perhaps a slight recovery will occur from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning when the Monthly Jobs Report is released. The bears are ready to take a turn at bat later today as long as Yellen does not take away the bat and ball with her typical dovish talk. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:33 PM EST on Thursday, 10/5/17: As usual, Yellen flies in on her white dove promising easy regulations for banks. Although she did not comment directly on monetary policy, Yellen said the Federal Reserve is actively working towards reducing banking regulations especially for the regional banks. That is music to Wall Street's ears. Yellen's term ends on 2/3/18 so for the next four months she will be pumping the banks higher. Of course she will. If she retires in February, by next summer she will appear at a token luncheon hosted by Goldman Sachs or another investment bank where she will be handed $250K or more just like former Fed Chairman Bernanke. The Fed members are rewarded handsomely by the investment bankers for their dovish loyalty once they leave office. The  privileged elite class always protects their own. So the RSI places a higher high and you know that price is not yet ready to roll over. The SPX prints a higher high and the RSI and MACD slope higher now providing a little more upside juice. The stochastics and RSI remain overbot. The stoch's, MACD histogram, and money flow indicators remain neggie d and want to see price roll over to the downside. So the RSI and MACD line have to negatively diverge to place the near-term top so probably a jog move down then back up (where the RSI will likely go neggie d) then down then back up for another high (where the MACD line and all indicators should be neggie d) and the top will be in. Yellen squeezed out another dozen SPX handles by flapping her dovish wings concerning the banks. So the top is likely 2 to 4 candlesticks away which is 4 to 8 hours. The full moon peaks for the month at 2:40 PM only an hour away so stocks may remain buoyant today. The SPX near-term top target is tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. The Monthly Jobs Report drops in the morning.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keybot the Quant flips bullish last Friday but is now in position to flip back to the bear side. If the SPX drops below 2529 tomorrow, Keybot will likely flip short. As always, more information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Monday, October 2, 2017

September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is Available from Amazon; Stock Market Record Highs; SPX 2519; INDU 22420; COMPQ 6498; NDX 6013; RUT 1494; NYA 12209; TRAN 9935; Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria; Puerto Rico Devastated; Mexico Earthquake; Bitcoin 5000+; North Korea Tests H-Bomb; London “Bucket Bomb” Terror Attack; Brent Oil Golden Cross; Apple Unveils iPhone 8 and X (10); German Chancellor Merkel Wins Reelection

The September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

September Cover Highlights;
STOCK MARKET RECORD HIGHS
SPX 2519, INDU 22420, COMPQ 6498, NDX 6013, RUT 1494, NYA 12209, TRAN 9935
HURRICANES HARVEY, IRMA, MARIA
PUERTO RICO DEVASTATED
MEXICO EARTHQUAKE
BITCOIN 5000+
NORTH KOREA TESTS H-BOMB
LONDON “BUCKET BOMB” TERROR ATTACK
BRENT OIL GOLDEN CROSS
APPLE UNVEILS IPHONE 8 AND X (10)
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL WINS REELECTION

The September chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major indexes. Bitcoin prints above 5000 but retreats as China places more restrictions on cyber currencies. Brent oil prints a golden cross stock chart pattern indicating more new highs ahead although West Texas Intermediate Crude oil has not printed a golden cross as yet.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with 16 key personnel changes occurring after only eight months an unprecedented revolving door. North Korea tests an H-Bomb that rocks the world. London is hit with another terrorist attack. German Chancellor Merkel is reelected.

Hurricanes slap the Caribbean Islands and United States. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are destroyed. Mexico is hit with a major earthquake.

Appple unveils the new iPhone 8 and X (pronounced 10) models. The iPhone X has a new fancy facial recognition system that failed during the stage presentation. Production problems are occurring with the iPhone X as the facial recognition sensors are not working as well as expected.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The October 2017-10 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 11/4/17.

The very popular Keystone Speculator stock, bond and currency (Forex) charts and technical analysis, Keybot the Quant algorithm status and Keystone the Scribe daily market chronology postings only continue if supported by the 100’s of thousands of international viewers each month. Content is posted in proportion to the support received. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Brent Oil Daily Chart; Golden Cross; Bull Flag

Brent oil prints a golden cross today where the 50-day MA crosses up through the 200-day MA forecasting more upside joy ahead. The chart shows the 50 still 2 cents below the 200 but during the session it was above. Price retreated during the session so the 50 lost a couple pennies. It should clearly print the golden cross tomorrow and this week.

The death cross occurred in early June. As typically happens, the stock or index will usually reverse when the cross occurs and only move further in that direction if the initial move is extended. The death cross occurs in early June so the expectation is that price will actually pop, and it does, and oil started trending higher retaking the 50-day MA in July. The oil bears could not create lower lows for oil after the June low.

Now that the golden cross occurs, price will likely pull back to take a rest. The red lines show negative divergence and overbot stochastics and RSI all wanting price to move lower. The MACD line, however, wants another higher high in price after a pull back in this daily time frame. At that time, the MACD will likely show neggie d and indicate a more firm top in this daily time frame and a more extended move lower on tap. Price will likely jog lower for a day or two, then come back up to satisfy the MACD line. At that time, check to see if the MACD goes neggie d, if so, the top is in for this daily time frame.

The neon blue lines show a textbook two-leg bull flag. The first leg is from 53.0 to 44.5 an 8.5 point gain. Price then consolidates sideways to sideways lower forming the bull flag or pennant. Leg two then begins moving higher starting at 50-ish. Thus, the target is 58.5 and bingo, the pattern is satisfied. The WTIC oil 50-day MA is moving higher but probably a week or two from a golden cross if oil prices choose to move higher.

The Brent and WTIC oil weekly charts are stumbling sideways. Ditto the monthly charts. Oil may stumble and bumble sideways for many weeks and months ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; New All-Time Record High; Upward-Sloping Channel; Bull Flag

The small caps join the September bull party. This month is typically the weakest of the year but instead prints wall to wall stock market joy. The RUT prints a new all-time high at 1460.95 and new all-time closing high at 1456.86. TRAN prints a new all-time record as well. These two indexes now join the SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX and NYA that have all printed new all-time record highs this month. Kneel and Praise the Glory and Majesty of the central bankers! Honor and Worship these modern day Money God's in charge of the Temple!

The RUT is at the top rail of the upward-sloping channel so it needs to make a bounce or die decision. Trades are rushing into small cap stocks buying with total disregard for price. The RUT leaps from 1350 to 1461, a 111-point gain, +8.2%, in only 26 days. The Russell is gaining +1% every three days over the last month.


Note the two-leg bull flag pattern shown in neon blue. First leg is from 1350 to 1415 which is 65 handles. Then price consolidates sideways to sideways lower in textbook fashion. Then leg two begins from 1395 so the target is 1460 (1395+65). Bingo. The bull flag pattern is satisfied. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TRAN Dow Transports and INDU Dow Industrials Daily Charts; Dow Theory Upside Confirmation


The Dow Jones Industrials, INDU or DJI, are in a steady uptrend the last few months printing higher lows and higher highs. The trannies confirmed the highs in the industrials into July so the broad market moves higher fully endorsed by Dow Theory upside confirmations. Then a bumpy road started.

The industrials kept printing higher highs but the transports dropped like a stone and began printing lower lows and lower highs a downside trend. The industrials began to follow the trannies lower and then in mid-August the industrials began rallying again and punched out new record highs this month. The trannies gap higher in early September trending higher with higher lows and higher highs.

Then bingo. The Dow Jones Transportation Index prints a new all-time record high at 9796 today. The new record high confirms the new record highs in the industrials from a Dow Theory perspective. Computerized buying programs clicked into gear supporting stocks in the afternoon. Everything keeps going the bulls way as the stock market monthly charts continue to hint that a multi-month and multi-year stock market top is in progress.

Watch the trannies closely to see if they roll over to the downside, or not. Also, since the transports just printed a new record high, look for the industrials to print a new all-time record high to provide another confirmation that the bull party will continue. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side yesterday (Monday) at SPX 2494. Bulls need higher utilities and copper while bears need higher volatility. More info is found on Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Sunday, September 17, 2017

SPX S&P 500 1-Minute Chart; SPX PRINTS 2,500 FIRST TIME IN HISTORY

The S&P 500 prints 2500 for the first time in history during the last minute of trading on Friday 9/15/17. The SPX all-time closing high and all-time record high are 2500.23. Price closed at the high. All Hail the Federal Reserve and other central bankers! Kneel and Praise them! Sound the Seven trumpets! Worship the modern-day money-changers in charge of the monetary Temple!

The global central bankers continue colluding to keep the stock markets pumped higher to reward the wealthy. The power of the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) is truly astounding as well as others such as the BOE in the UK and PBOC in China. The central bankers are the market. If you do not understand this fact after 8-1/2 years of out-of-control Keynesian you are simply not paying attention.

The unholy near-nine years of easy money accommodation by the Fed and its partners in crime such as the ECB and BOJ, that only serve to make the wealthy more filthy rich, is so obscene that even Caligula would blush.

The world is awash in liquidity. The dollars, euros and yen have go somewhere so all asset classes including stocks, bonds, art, collectibles, real estate and antique cars, are bid wildly higher week after week. The party continues as long as global market participants maintain their full faith and confidence in the central bankers. When that credibility takes a hit, the end game begins. For now, the band is playing "Happy Days Are Here Again."

Since the SPX 2500 milestone occurs in the final minute before a weekend there were not many traders donning  "SPX 2,500" hats or celebrating. There are two schools of thought with S&P 2,500. The market bulls say the lack of euphoria over the milestone indicates that stocks have a long way to go on the upside. Bulls say that stock market rallies only end when the public is all-in and the euphoria and giddiness is at record levels and we are nowhere near that now. Therefore, the party continues indefinitely.

The market bears say the lack of enthusiasm for the SPX 2500 print is because it occurred right before the weekend when traders are focused on sipping cold beverages. Bears say the lack of enthusiasm for SPX 2500 also proves how it is a given that market participants expect higher record stock prices. Dow 23K, 24K and SPX 2600 are expected. The central bankers have pumped equities higher for nearly nine years and the belief is that no matter what happens domestically or internationally, it all can be fixed by the Fed and other central bankers printing money. This behavior is a case for complacency.

The VIX fell to 10.00 the tiniest hair from a 9-handle on Friday (one penny) proving the fearlessness in markets (but low volatility can remain for a long time). The CPC and CPCE put/calls continue printing low numbers, although the data is becoming more erratic, indicating complacency. The NYMO remains elevated consistent at where tops occur in the near-term.

When market participants are not concerned about major milestones such as SPX 2500 and Dow 22K printing, that hints more of complacency and a belief that markets will never go down since central bankers always step in to save the day. Are the bulls correct or the bears going forward? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The sideways choppy slop continues with the Keybot the Quant algorithm flipping long again at SPX 2484 dancing between the long and short side every few days for the last couple months. Bulls need higher banks and SPX 2500 is on the way. Bears must send banks lower, send retail stocks lower and pump volatility higher. The SPX prints a new all-time record closing high yesterday at 2488.11. The all-time high is 2490.87 from August. The NYA (NYSE Composite) also printed a record closing high yesterday; ditto utilities. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

The battle continues at the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2455 a key short-term market signal. The SPX is at 2452 below the 200 EMA so the stock market bears are in charge for the hours and days ahead.  Market bulls need to push the SPX above 2455 as soon as possible, otherwise, the bears will begin to press the stock market far lower.

Market bears can cheer as long as the SPX remains under 2455.13. Bulls rule the markets above 2455.13. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/6/17, Before the Opening Bell: The SPX ends Tuesday at 2458 with the 200 EMA at 2455.14. The bulls win. This battle continues and 2455 tells you who is the winner going forward. Stocks may be in a holding pattern until King Draghi announces the direction of the euro tomorrow morning which will impact all other asset classes.

Note Added Sunday, 9/17/17: The SPX bounced in the chart above exactly at that red circle on the right-hand side. The bulls held the 200 EMA support and used it a a springboard launching the S&P 500 to a new all-time record high above 2500 for the first time in history. The SPX is at 2500.23 and the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is at 2468 and rising. The 200 EMA remains a key pivot point for stocks for short-term trading going forward; it will be a big deal when it fails.

VIX Volatility Daily Chart

The bears come to play on Tuesday jamming volatility higher. The central banker's jack boots temporarily slip off the neck of Uncle Vix. The VIX catapults more than +30% today from 10 to 13.20. Volatility pops so stocks drop. As you know, market bears win above the VIX 200-day MA, now at 11.63, while bulls win below the 200.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is short and identifies the VIX 10.92 level as the key bull-bear line in the sand. New highs in the stock market will not occur unless the VIX falls under 10.92. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 9/17/17: The SPX is above 2500 rallying as the VIX sinks like a stone on Friday, 9/15/17, dropping to 10.00 only one single penny from a 9-handle. Market bears have zero hope with volatility remaining at multi-decade lows. Bulls rule the stock market with a VIX at 9 and 10.

August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, APPL, MSFT and BSE (India) Record Highs; Hurricane Harvey Slams Texas Oil Refineries; Total Solar Eclipse; Bitcoin 5000; North Korea Turmoil; Trump Threatens NoKo with Fire and Fury; Barcelona Terrorism; USD 91-Handle; Euro 1.20; Jackson Hole; US-China Trade War Simmers; Trump Threatens Government Shutdown; Amazon Food Wars Begin

The August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

August Cover Highlights;
SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, AAPL, MSFT AND BSE (India) RECORD HIGHS
HURRICANE HARVEY SLAMS TEXAS OIL REFINERIES
TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
BITCOIN 5000
NORTH KOREA TURMOIL
TRUMP THREATENS NOKO WITH FIRE AND FURY
BARCELONA TERRORISM
USD 91-HANDLE; EURO 1.20
JACKSON HOLE
US-CHINA TRADE WAR SIMMERS
TRUMP THREATENS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
AMAZON FOOD WARS BEGIN

The August chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs. India’s BSE Sensex ran above 32K last month into early this month. The Dow Industrials print above 22K in early August another milestone.

The US dollar index and euro print big moves; these currency baskets move inverse to each other. The dollar is sinking so the euro is bouncing. The euro moves briefly above 1.20 with the USD printing lower with a 91-handle. Both the euro and dollar are testing their 200-week MA’s.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with over 15 key personnel changes occurring after only seven months an unprecedented revolving door. Advisors Stephen Bannon and Sebastian Gorka are shown the door in August. The Russia and other investigations continue. President Trump is threatening North Korea with fire and fury unless tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un ceases the missile and nuclear programs. Trump also threatens Congress with a government shutdown unless they include funding for the southern border wall.

US and China keep poking each other in the eye with long sticks as a trade war simmers. Barcelona is rocked by Islamic terrorism. Bitcoin tags 5000 as September begins. Money from China, Japan, India and Turkey chase the digital currency higher. The Jackson Hole Economic Forum takes place in Wyoming but did not live up to its ype. Amazon begins food price wars that rock the grocers and food makers. The epic market action continues as the global central bankers collude daily to maintain elevated stock prices.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The September 2017-09 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 9/30/17.

The Keystone Speculator stock, bond and currency (Forex) charts and technical analysis, Keybot the Quant algorithm status and Keystone the Scribe daily market chronology only continue if supported by the 100’s of thousands of international viewers each month. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The erratic stock market action continues. Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the short side at SPX 2469 after the opening bell. Watch RTH 79.92, XLF 24.67 and VIX 10.92. As usual, more information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Friday, September 1, 2017

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; C&H; Upper Band Violation; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Teasing All-Time Highs

The bulls are beating the bears up this week. The pre-holiday positive seasonality is slapping the bears around since mid-week. Volatility drops and banks run higher crushing all the bear's hopes and dreams. Keybot the Quant is long and says higher retail stocks will help bulls while lower banks and higher volatility will help bears. Note that the VIX fell through Keybot's line in the sand at 11.14 and stocks have been running higher ever since.

On the SPX 2-hour chart, the tight pink standard deviation bands squeeze the radical move higher. Price runs directly up the outer band without taking a rest. The middle band at 2456, and rising, is on the table. The blue lines show a C&H  (cup and handle) pattern with head at 2420 and breakout line at 2453 so a move above 2453 would target 2486 (2453+33). Using the whole numbers 2420 and 2450 would target 2480 so the target zone is the 2480-2486 to satisfy the C&H. You can also call it a W pattern if you like (light blue line) although it has a funky right side. This pattern has the same upside target.

The SPX is at 2479 only 2 points from a new all-time closing high at 2480.91 from 8/7/17 (purple circle). The all-time intraday high is 2490.87 from 8/8/17 (brown circle).

As price makes higher highs in this 2-hour time frame, the stochastics are overbot and cooked, rammed into the ceiling and neggie d. The histogram and ROC are in negative divergence. The MACD line and RSI, however, are long and strong wanting more higher highs in price after any pullbacks in this 2-hour time frame. The RSI is overbot.

Price should drop for a candlestick, then come back up again for a higher high in price, at that time, the RSI will likely roll over and be in neggie d. Then price will then go down again but then come back up for another higher high when the MACD line will likely go neggie d that will be the top in this near term. Thus, potentially a couple jog moves, down, up, down, up, then down for a move lower. 5 candlesticks is 10 hours of trading time on the chart so that takes things into Tuesday lunch time. So stocks may remain buoyant into the holiday weekend and then sort the top out next week when trading resumes. US market are closed on Monday for Labor Day.

If price sneaks out those two more highs as it tops and rolls over you can see where the SPX would venture into that 2480-2486 target zone to satisfy the C&H. Watch to see if the SPX prints a new all-time closing high today. That will be happy news for the headline writers this weekend. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:54 PM EST: The SPX is at 2479.73 with a HOD at 2479.81. The bulls are pushing to try and print a record closing high today now only one point away. Can they do it?

Note Added 11:07 AM EST on Tuesday, 9/5/17: US stocks are trading again today after the Labor Day holiday yesterday. The SPX is selling off to begin the holiday-shortened week down 11 points at 2465. Price topped at 2481 close enough for government work to satisfy the C&H discussed above. The MACD was not exactly convincing as price topped out (did not display neggie d) in this 2-hour time frame so do not be surprised at some more buoyancy in the S&P 500. Price leaves a gap behind that is big enough to drive a truck through at 2470-2477. The full moon peaks overnight tonight and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon. A Bradley turn occurs on Thursday so markets are in a window where an inflection point may occur anytime now through next Wednesday. Stocks may stagger sideways, like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night, into the Thursday ECB policy meeting where Draghi will dictate the direction of the euro, and subsequently, the US dollar and stocks. Thursday morning will be big so traders may take it easy until then. The all-time closing high at 2480.91 from 8/7/17 (purple circle) and all-time intraday high at 2490.87 from 8/8/17 (brown circle) remain the records. The SPX teased higher on Friday but could not close at a new record high.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the bull side at SPX 2452 as the whipsaw action continues. Markets are very erratic and unstable. Do not be surprised if the model flips back to the short side tomorrow. The banks run the show. Watch XLF 24.67 on Thursday. More information is found at Keybot's site,

Keybot the Quant

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

VIX Volatilty Daily Chart; Battle at the 200-Day MA Bull-Bear Line in the Sand

The VIX 200-day MA is a key short-term bull-bear stock market signal. The VIX 200-day MA is at 11.68. The VIX ends today at, wait for it, wait a little bit longer, a bit longer, 11.70 only two pennies on the bear side. VIX was bobbing back and forth on each side of 11.68 during the settlement after the closing bell. So the battle lines are drawn for hump day. Market bulls win big if the VIX drops under 11.68. Market bears will growl to victory if VIX remains above 11.68.

Keybot the Quant algo is short and identifies VIX 11.15 (blue bar) as a key bull-bear line in the sand. Market bulls will be sending stocks big-time higher if VIX drops under 11.15.

But first thing is first. Watch to see if the bulls have the juice on Wednesday to send VIX below the 11.68 level, or not. Volatility will tell you a lot about market direction ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross; Channels

The choppy sideways slop continues. The S&P 500 has basically been moving through 2440-2450 for the last week (brown channel). Sideways whipsaw markets chew up bulls and bears alike. The downward-sloping red channel is in play. Price is trying to break up through the upper trend line so this is a critical time. The indicators are not tipping their hand heading sideways.

The stochastics push into bull territory above 50% and are long and strong over the last couple hours, ditto money flow, so some further buoyancy in price would be expected in this one hour time frame.


The market bears are fine as long as the SPX does not move above the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 2452. Bulls will rule the stock market with every day forward a big party if the SPX moves above 2452. As explained on the weekend, there is a cluster of moving averages and price resistance at 2451-2454 so this resistance gauntlet is key.


20-day MA 2454
Price resistance 2454
Price resistance 2453
200 EMA on 60-minute 2452
50-day MA 2451

Keybot the Quant is short and tracking SOX 1075.07, XLF 24.65 and VIX 11.18 as these three stooges are most impacting market direction currently. Let's see. SOX is at 1083 creating bullishness in the stock market. XLF is 24.53 creating bearishness in the market. VIX is at 11.89 creating bearishness. One of these three will flinch and tell you the direction ahead for stocks.


Also watch the VIX 200-day MA at 11.68. VIX is at 11.89 so this is a feather in the bear's cap. Market bulls got nothing unless they move VIX below 11.68 and ultimately under 11.18. The beat goes on. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.


Note Added 6:56 PM EST:  The VIX finishes at, wait for it, wait a little bit longer for it, 11.70. The battle at the VIX 200-day MA will be key tomorrow. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bear side at SPX 2434. The erratic choppy market action continues. Market bears need weaker chips while the bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot the Quant

Sunday, August 27, 2017

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Potential H&S

The SPX daily chart is a pile of spaghetti. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d were previously described identifying the top at the end of July and early August, which occurs. The blue dots show where price was extended a maximum amount above the moving averages that are all in an extended ribbon with the 20-day MA above the 50-day MA above the 100-day above the 150 above the 200. Price needs a mean reversion lower when it is extended and the move lower occurs off the all-time record top at 2491 on 8/8/17.

The action has been choppy but the pink dots show the pattern of lower lows and lower highs which creates an downward-sloping pink channel. Price is testing the upper trend line to try and escape that channel. This key 2450-2457 area is also where a right shoulder is in place for a potential H&S pattern (brown bars). See the SPX Support/Resistance missive previously posted to study the importance of the 2450-2457 resistance level.

The head and shoulders neckline is at the strong 2416 price support so a head at 2491 would target 2341 if the 2416 fails. Using the closing high at 2481 as the head would target 2351 if the 2416 neckline fails. This 2341-2351 landing zone for the H&S corresponds well to prior price support/resistance from March-May.

The ADX is down to a paltry 11.55. The ADX has trended lower for the last four months as the S&P 500 has rallied higher. The lackluster ADX indicates that the uptrend in the stock market in this daily time frame is NOT a strong uptrend. If the stock market rally was strong the ADX should be above 30 now and moving higher. If the downtrend continues for stocks and the ADX rises going forward it will actually verify that a downtrend in price is a strong trend, but you just have to watch it to see how it plays out.

20-day MA 2457.18
200 EMA on 60-minute chart 2453.03
50-day MA 2450.59

20-week MA 2421.56
100-day MA 2421.09

Price staggers sideways. Market bulls win big if they can punch up through the strong 2450-2457 resistance gauntlet. Market bears win big if they can push below the 2416-2422 support gauntlet. Price moving through 2416-2457 will likely continue the sideways choppy slop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 8/28/17

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 8/28/17. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

For the S&P 500 in history, the all-time record high print is 2490.87 on 8/8/17 and the all-time closing high is 2480.91 on 8/7/17. The all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2017, the intraday high is 2490.87 and closing high is 2480.91. For 2017, the intraday low is 2245.13 from the first trading day of the year on 1/3/17 and the closing low for the year thus far is at 2257.83 on 1/3/17. For 2016, the intraday high is 2277.53 on 12/13/16 and closing high at 2271.72 on 12/13/16. For 2016, the intraday low is 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and the closing low for 2016 is 1829.08 on 2/11/16. The intraday low in 2015 is 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and closing low for 2015 is 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

The SPX was spanked down from the overbot conditions, rising wedge and negative divergence on the daily and weekly charts. The price falls from the all-time high at 2491 to 2417 last week bouncing directly off the 100-day MA now at 2421.09. The 100-day MA support carries a lot of clout going forward. Bad things will happen to stocks if it fails. The 20-week MA is 2421.56 and the S&P 500 used this as a springboard last week for the bounce. The 2416 is strong horizontal price support. Thus, the 2416-2422 support gauntlet is uber importante. If 2416 fails, the SPX will likely hit an air pocket and collapse to 2400-2401 in a heartbeat and then test the 2394-2396 support.

For Monday, with the SPX beginning at 2443, the bears need to push under 2442 to accelerate price several quick points lower. The 2428-2443 range is a bunch of sideways slop. If 2442 fails, the 2431 test is on the table. A failure at 2431 will open the trap door to test  the important 2416-2422 support gauntlet mentioned above.

For Monday, the bulls must push above the 2450-2457 resistance ceiling. If the S&P 500 can punch up through 2457, price will not look back until 2465. The 50-day MA is 2450.59. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-mintue chart is 2453.03 a very important short-term market signal currently giving the bears the nod. The 20-day MA is 2457.18.

With the month of August ending on Thursday (EOM), if the SPX is floating higher, the bulls will likely make a run at 2469-2470 resistance to try to turn the month positive. August began at 2470.30 and this determines if the month is a winner or a loser. The monthly charts receive final data points for August at 4 PM EST Thursday, 8/31/17, for EOM.

If the bulls punch price above 2469-2470, the 2475 R is next and if that gives way, the SPX is on its way to testing the all-time closing high level in the 2478-2481 area.

Consumer Confidence data is key on Tuesday morning. The month ends on Thursday (EOM) and stocks have been moving in a downside trend of lower lows and lower highs in August so buoyancy in stocks typically would occur for the last two or three days of the month.

The Monthly Jobs Report is on Friday with the major focus on wages since inflation cannot occur without wage inflation occurring. Both inflation and wage growth are Godot. If inflation does not appear, the Federal Reserve's obscene eight-year Keynesian experiment will be proven a failure. Consumer Sentiment is also released on Friday.

Markets are closed on Monday, 9/4/17, for the Labor Day holiday. Stocks are typically bullish the two days leading into a three-day holiday weekend so this provides a positive bias for stocks on Thursday and Friday.

The strongest support/resistance is 2491, 2484, 2480-2481, 2478, 2475, 2469-2470, 2465, 2453-2454, 2441-2443, 2438-2439, 2436, 2434, 2431, 2428-2429, 2419, 2415-2416, 2412, 2404, 2400-2401 and 2394-2396.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser. The data is current up through 8/27/17.

2530
2520
2510
2500
2491 (8/8/17 All-Time Intraday High: 2490.87) (8/8/17 Intraday High for 2017: 2490.87)
2484 (7/27/17 Intraday High: 2484.04)
2483
2482
2481 (8/7/17 All-Time Closing High: 2480.91) (8/7/17 Closing High for 2017: 2480.91)
2480
2478 (7/27/17 Closing High: 2477.83)
2477
2476
2475
2472
2470.30 August Begins Here
2469
2468
2465
2457.18 (20-day MA)
2454.77 Previous Week’s High
2454 (6/19/17 Intraday High: 2453.82)
2453.96 Friday HOD
2453.03 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
2453 (6/19/17 Closing High: 2453.46)
2450.59 (50-day MA)
2450
2448
2445
2443.05 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
2443
2442.22 Friday LOD
2442
2441
2439
2438
2436
2434
2431
2429
2428
2426
2423
2422
2421.56 (20-week MA)
2421.09 (100-day MA)
2419
2417.35 Previous Week’s Low
2416
2415
2412
2406
2404
2401 (3/1/17 Intraday High: 2400.98)
2400
2396 (3/1/17 Closing High: 2395.96)
2395.08 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
2394
2390
2389
2387
2382
2380
2378
2375
2373
2370
2368
2365
2363
2361
2359
2357.56 (10-month MA)
2357
2356
2355.12 (200-day MA)
2355
2353
2351
2349
2345
2343
2342
2340
2338
2336
2335
2329
2322.50 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal; the cliff)
2322
2319.21 (50-week MA)
2311
2300
2299
2298
2297
2296
2293
2290
2289
2286
2285
2281
2280
2279
2278 (12/13/16 Intraday High; 2277.53)
2277
2275
2274
2273
2272 (12/13/16 Closing High: 2271.72)
2271
2270
2269
2268
2265
2263
2260
2258 (1/3/17 Closing Low for 2017: 2257.83)
2254
2252
2249
2245 (1/3/17 Intraday Low for 2017: 2245.13)
2241
2239 (12/30/16 Closing Low: 2238.83)
2238.83 Trading for 2017 Begins Here
2238
2234 (12/30/16 Intraday Low: 2233.62)
2220.40 (20-month MA)
2214
2213 (11/25/16 Intraday and Closing High: 2213.35)
2212
2211
2210
2209
2207
2206
2205
2202
2200
2199
2198
2195
2194 (8/15/16 Intraday High: 2193.81)
2191 (12/1/16 Closing Low: 2191.08)
2190 (8/15/16 Closing High: 2190.15)
2187 (12/1/16 Intraday Low: 2187.44)
2186.86 (100-week MA)
2185
2183
2182
2179
2178
2175
2174
2173
2170
2169
2166
2165
2164
2163
2160
2157
2155
2152
2151
2150
2146
2143.58 (150-week MA)
2140
2135 (5/20/15 Intraday High: 2134.72)
2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)
2131 (5/21/15 Closing High: 2130.82)
2132
2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)
2129
2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)
2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)
2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)
2123
2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)
2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)
2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)
2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)
2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)
2115
2114
2113
2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2111.04)
2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)
2109
2108
2107
2105
2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)
2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)
2102 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2102.40)
2100
2099
2097
2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)
2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)
2089
2086
2085 (11/4/17 Closing Low: 2085.18)
2084 (11/4/17 Intraday Low: 2083.79)
2083
2081
2079.16 (200-week MA)
2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)
2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)
2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)
2074
2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)
2072
2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)
2069
2067
2065
2064
2063
2061
2057
2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)
2055.50 (50-month MA)
2053
2052
2050
2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)
2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)
2042
2040
2038
2034
2032
2030
2023
2022
2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)
2017
2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)
2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)
2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)
2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)
2002
1998
1997
1995
1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)
1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)
1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)
1987
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1983
1982