The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Archive Article 6

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected over 3.5 million people around the world murdering 245,000 (245K). One-quarter of a million people lay dead on the planet at the hand of China’s deadly virus. 1.1 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer virus has attacked and sickened over 1.2 million Americans (0.4% of the 330 million US population) murdering nearly 68K United States citizens. 174K have recovered.

America loses more lives to China’s coronavirus than in the Vietnam War. 1 in every 250 Americans are sickened by Wuhan’s COVID-19. Over one-third of the world’s coronavirus cases and over one-fourth of the total deaths are in the United States. China did a number on America and must pay a heavy price for their nefarious deed and cover-up.

As communist China, lying in bed with WHO, downplayed the virus from late last year into early March, the dirtbag commie leadership began hoarding PPE (personal protective equipment), ventilators, virus testing equipment and other supplies. China pulled back on exports of these and other items needed to fight a pandemic while accelerating their imports of the same products. What dirtbags. The Beijing communist leadership not only released the dangerous coronavirus bioweapon on humanity, intentionally or by accident, but also hoarded supplies for themselves while telling everyone else in the world the virus was not a problem. China must be held accountable. Never trust a communist; they will slit your throat in the middle of the night while you sleep.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 6 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This sixth article is published on 5/3/20, today, and the next article, number seven in the series, is tentatively slated for publishing on Wednesday, 5/13/20.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator CoronavirusInfection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal ReserveBlinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing$700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus ArchiveArticle 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active CasesPeaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly JobsReport; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases ContinueRising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headedfor Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (ModernMonetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; CoronavirusArchive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus SuccessStories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexicoand Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

TKSCIRM forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. Major trouble is ahead when the number of new coronavirus cases are increasing especially through the initial exponential expansion phase. The daily new virus cases are typically shown in a bar chart format. The first thing to watch for the Keystone Model is when the daily new cases begin leveling-off typically into a choppy sideways move. It is key that the new cases level off and begin drifting sideways lower since this will eventually create the top in the active cases curve which is the bell curve.

The active case curve represents the maximum strain on the medical personnel and the hope for all countries is that this curve flattens out and then rolls over to the downside (the top of the bell chart pattern forms and the virus cases begin dropping forming the right side of the bell). Thus, the two key charts are the new case barchart and the active case bell curve.

When anyone refers to “flattening the curve” this is specifically referencing the active case bell curve. The prior article discussed how officials, the media and the public are misusing terms that quantify and scientifically describe the virus. 

TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the next four days are watched to see if the new cases have peaked-out and are beginning a sideways leveling-off pattern, or, if the new cases will print a new high again. If the new cases remain lower than the peak new case date for four days after the peak, this date is the Confirmation Date and always represents five days of sideways behavior including the peak date. This is an excellent development and means that the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

Once the Confirmation Date is identified, 23 days are added to this date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date (top of bell curve). There is a choice of two time periods to apply depending If the country or region is well prepared with a pandemic plan, and if testing procedures and supplies are available, and if stay-at-home and lock-down measures for the population are implemented and enforced quickly, or, if the country is ill-prepared.

South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Israel, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China are the success stories thus far. These nations and regions have the best pandemic plans and testing protocols and reached their Active Case Peak Dates, on average, only 9 days after the Confirmation Date (only 14 days after the New Case Peak Date). These countries with extensive testing programs were able to identify and quarantine infected individuals quickly leading to a faster resolution of the pandemic in that region. It is crystal clear from the data. Of course it is easy to quarantine folks in communist China or in dictatorships such as Philippines and Turkey because if you do not do as told, you receive a bullet in your head.

Conversely, countries less prepared, and those that took the initial COVID-19 threat less seriously, such as many European nations, the US, and UK, are getting hammered as they play catch-up. Since the success stories are over their peak active caseloads (past the peak in the bell curve and now on the downside) and were the only ones prepared for a pandemic, all other nations can be assumed to take far longer than the 9 days between the Confirmation Date and Active Case Peak Date.

In fact, it takes 23 days or almost three times longer, as per the Keystone Model, for the active case bell curve to peak for the less-prepared countries. This is disturbing since President Trump’s criteria for reopening the economy is 14 days past the new case peak date. Trump and his team patterned this 14-day number after the countries that were successful. Trump’s plan does not use the active case bell curve chart which is stupid since this chart indicates the maximum strain on the medical system. Instead, Trump uses the new case bar chart and looks for 14 consecutive days of sideways or lower infections.

Humorously, albeit tragically, Trumpster said, as justification to reopen the economy, that all states are either leveling off in virus cases or on the downside. To no surprise during this fiasco, it was another blatant lie. In fact, on 4/24/20, the new coronavirus cases in America hit an all-time high!! As of this writing, 18 states continue showing virus cases increasing not decreasing!! This includes Texas one of the most aggressive states at reopening their economy. Now Donnie may choose not to be told things so he could claim plausible deniability (this is one of the key crony capitalism baby games the republocrats and demopublicans both play), but that excuse only labels his statement as incompetent reflective of an out-of-touch leader.

The US is larger geographically than other countries and was not as well prepared so America will take longer to peak-out. The jury is out as to whether President Trump will be correct or not in his zeal to reopen the US economy. Since the peak in active cases is not likely for 2 or 3 weeks and there is still a week or two of intensity on the back side of the bell curve, the US is likely looking at another month of misery ahead and the reopening of the economy appears premature. King Donnie is rolling the dice and your family and livelihood are laying on the table. Pray that he does not roll snake eyes.

Italy, Spain and France have peaked out in active cases which is great news. This saga was described and highlighted as it unfolded over the last couple articles. The three nations peaked-out at 25, 24 and 21 days, respectively, between the Confirmation Date and Active Case Peak Date, for an average of 23 days that can then be applied to other nations. In Spain, the children were happy finally getting a chance to come out of the house after 7 weeks.

Keep in mind, as discussed in the prior article, the United States is large geographically and the virus will roll through regions at different times; it is as if the US is 2 or 3 regions size compared to the other data. For a given state, region or city in America, use that specific new case data and follow the Keystone Model to predict the peak in active case load for that respective region.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model identifies the New Case Peak Date (peak in new infections), then makes sure the new cases are truly leveling-off with the Confirmation Date (five days of flat or lower new cases), and then adds 23 days to forecast the Active Case Peak Date (top of bell curve) which is the maximum demand on the medical system.

Countries are listed below in the time-line order of when the coronavirus will peak-out and begin to diminish. The first group of nations were well prepared for the pandemic response with PPE and testing procedures in place. Of course, China screwed the world by not only releasing the deadly coronavirus virus from one of their Wuhan bioweapon laboratories but then also hoarding supplies while saying the virus is under control. Dirtbag communists. The active case curve peaks for these virus-prepared nations 9 days after the Confirmation Date or 14 days after the New Case Peak Date.

China

2/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest number of new infection cases) (a subsequent spike on 2/12/20 is ignored; China’s corrupt communist data is very suspect and of limited value)

2/8/20 Confirmation Date (the sideways move in new cases is confirmed for 5 days)

2/17/20 Active Case Peak Date (top of active case bell curve occurs representing maximum strain on medical facilities) (14 days after the New Case Peak Date and 9 days after the Confirmation Date)

South Korea

3/3/20 New Case Peak Date

3/7/20 Confirmation Day

3/11/20 Active Case Peak Date although 3/15/20 is also a peak (4 days after the Confirmation Date)

Switzerland

3/20/20 New Case Peak Date

3/24/20 Confirmation Date

3/31/20 Active Case Peak Date (7 days after Confirmation Date)

Australia

3/22/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy day also on 3/29/20)

3/26/20 Confirmation Date

4/4/20 Active Case Peak Date (9 days after Confirmation Date)

Germany

3/27/20 New Case Peak Date

3/31/20 Confirmation Date

4/6/20 Active Case Peak Date (6 days after Confirmation Date)

Taiwan

3/20/20 New Case Peak Date (big spike occurs 4/19/20 but it is not more than the peak)

3/24/20 Confirmation Date

4/6/20 Active Case Peak Date (13 days after Confirmation Date)

Hong Kong

3/29/20 New Case Peak Date

4/2/20 Confirmation Date

4/7/20 Active Case Peak Date (5 days after Confirmation Date)

Israel

4/2/20 New Case Peak Date (big spikes occur on 4/9/20 and 4/22/20 but are not greater than the peak)

4/6/20 Confirmation Date

4/15/20 Active Case Peak Date (9 days after Confirmation Date)

Below are the countries and regions that were not as well prepared for the coronavirus outbreak but are now over the peak in active cases (past the top of the bell curve; active virus cases are now decreasing easing the strain on medical facilities).

Italy

3/21/20 New Case Peak Date

3/25/20 Confirmation Date

4/19/20 Active Case Peak Date (25 days after Confirmation Date and 30 days after the New Case Peak Date; use for modeling purposes along with Spain and France; the three nations; active case curves peak, on average, 23 days after the Confirmation Date)

Spain

3/26/20 New Case Peak Date (4/1/20 was a big day but not as much as 3/26/20)

3/30/20 Confirmation Date

4/23/20 Active Case Peak Date (24 days after Confirmation Date)

France

4/3/20 New Case Peak Date

4/7/20 Confirmation Date

4/28/20 Active Case Peak Date (21 days after Confirmation Date)

Japan

4/11/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection date on 4/15/20 but not as bad as 4/11/20) (Japan’s data is suspect due to poor testing and a routine history of reporting fudged numbers; wait for more data)

4/15/20 Confirmation Date

4/28/20 Active Case Peak Date (13 days)

Turkey

4/11/20 New Case Peak Date (Turkey’s reporting is untrustworthy under Dictator Erdogan; wait for more data)

4/15/20 Confirmation Date

4/23/20 Active Case Peak Date (8 days)

Below are more countries and regions that were not well-prepared for the coronavirus outbreak and are expected to follow the path of Italy, Spain and France with the peak in active cases projected as 23 days beyond the confirmation date or 28 days past the new case maximum date. These nations are not out of the woods yet but if they continue what they have been doing, the strain on their respective medical systems should peak over the next 2 to 3 weeks. The United States reopening businesses may jeopardize the positive outcome. Keep in mind that the US was projected to peak today, 5/3/20, in the last article but since then the new cases in America have spiked higher (perhaps due to additional testing and people abandoning the stay-at-home and social distancing policies) with a peak high on 4/24/20.

Belgium (Central Europe)

4/15/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection dates also on 4/17/20, 4/20/20 and 4/22/20)

4/19/20 Confirmation Date

5/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Canada (North America)

4/23/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection dates also on 4/17/20, 4/20/20 and 4/22/20)

4/27/20 Confirmation Date

5/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

United States (North America)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection day is 4/4/20 but 4/24/20 is worse)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Sweden (North Europe)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection days on 4/8/20 and 4/30/20 but 4/24/20 is worse)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Ecuador (South America)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/10/20 date)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Peru (South America)

4/25/20 New Case Peak Date (4/13/20 was a huge day but 4/25/20 is worse)

4/29/20 Confirmation Date

5/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Below are the countries and regions that were not as well prepared for the coronavirus outbreak, and greatly resisted preventive measures and/or were slow to respond with government action; in other words, the worst possible outcomes. These nations face continued coronavirus trouble ahead;

Philippines

3/31/20 New Case Peak Date (Philippines is Hell on Earth in lockdown with people dropping like flies; lack of testing; 1 in 4 deaths are healthcare workers; the reporting from Dictator Duterte is suspect; wait for more data)

4/4/20 Confirmation Date

4/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days) (this date has passed but active case curve does not peak and instead climbs ever higher; data is suspect)

UK

4/10/20 New Case Peak Date (huge days on 4/30/20 and 5/1/20 but not as bad as 4/10/20; testing is poor; wait for more data)

4/14/20 Confirmation Date

5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days) (the peak date would be 5/29/20 if the 5/1/20 new case data was a wee bit stronger)

Singapore (Asia)

4/20/20 New Case Peak Date (data is suspect; wait for more data)

4/24/20 Confirmation Day

5/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Indonesia (Southeast Asia)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (4/12/20, 4/17/20, 4/28/20 and 5/1/20 all huge days; wait for more data)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

Brazil (South America)

5/1/20 New Case Peak Date (prior peak on 4/15/20 was suspect data and Brazil numbers did get worse; cases are escalating daily)

5/5/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Nigeria (the African continent faces an epic human tragedy)

5/1/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/5/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

South Africa (the African continent faces an epic human tragedy)

5/2/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/6/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

India (South Asia)

5/2/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/6/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Russia (Eastern Europe and North Asia)

5/2/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/6/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Mexico (North America)

5/2/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/6/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days) (chart shows active cases peaking 4/24/20 which is incorrect since mathematically this cannot exist with new cases rising exponentially; the active case peak chart will spike higher in coming days and likely has not peaked)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Chile (South America)

5/2/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/6/20 Projected Confirmation Date

5/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (23 days)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Summarizing the above data after China’s release of the deadly coronavirus on humanity in late 2019 early 2020, South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Israel were the best-prepared nations and their active case bell curves peaked quickly 9 days after the Confirmation Date or 14 days after the New Case Peak Date. Testing is key. Testing is the most important parameter in controlling COVID-19.

Europe is improving. Italy, Spain and France have peaked-out on their respective active case bell curves as described in prior articles. Belgium will peak in about 9 days (5/12/20) following the same path as Italy, Spain and France so the strain on the medical systems in central Europe will greatly improve as May plays out. Europe will be a far happier place by the end of this month. Sadly, however, the world must deal with ongoing virus worry and fatigue hanging over the planet’s blue and green head like the Sword of Damocles. Global citizens will remain distressed thinking about the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as future Chinese bioweapons.

Japan and Turkey both exhibit peaks in their active case bell curves but the data is suspect. Japan lies about its data routinely, such as after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear tragedy where all the managers are long since dead from radiation poisoning but their causes of death are listed as other ailments (so as not to tarnish the nuke industry). Corruption is rampant everywhere in the world. Thus, give Japan a couple more weeks to see if that active case curve remains lower or if a spike event occurs. Ditto Turkey. Both of these countries have poor testing regimes in place and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe was slow to respond to the virus situation. The numbers provided from dirtbag Dictator Erdogan cannot be trusted so allow Turkey to simmer in the virus stew a little longer.

The Belgium, Canada, United States, Sweden, Ecuador and Peru grouping should all follow the European path with their active case bell curves peaking out in 2 to 3 weeks. The concern is that businesses are returning to work to quickly which may reaccelerate the infection rate. If new cases report a peak number, that will then push forward the peak in the active case curve and doubly-frustrate people that wanted to return to work and abandon the stay-at-home orders. It would be a huge setback for the global economy.

Interestingly, there has been much talk about Sweden’s approach to handling the virus which is to not enforce draconian measures on citizens and the economy, think of it as a shut-down lite. Sweden thinks herd immunity will kick in if the population keeps interacting somewhat normally. Many Swedes, however, are choosing to stay at home which throws a monkey wrench (spanner) in the experiment.

It is believed that a society with 60% to 80% individuals infected with a virus will create herd immunity. The virus simply fades away since the majority people are already exposed. It is also surmised that from 5% to 20% of any population has already had the virus. Many people are asymptomatic. Data from New York yesterday shows that about 12% to 14% of that population has had the virus (they show antibodies in the testing). The US implemented the lockdown and shutdown the economy abruptly. America and Sweden take two different approaches and both are in the exact same soup with the same projected active case peak dates in 2 or 3 weeks time. Perhaps the lesson is that the stay-at-home orders, the social distancing rules, the masks, nearly all the decisions made by governments, will appear foolish since the coronavirus will simply have to run its course and herd immunity will occur eventually.

Philippines, UK, Singapore and Indonesia can be lumped into the Japan and Turkey funk camp. There are issues with the data from these nations and a couple more weeks will need to play out to get an idea on which direction they are headed. Manila is overwhelmed with sickness and death and Dictator Duterte cancels all incoming flights. Filipino healthcare workers are dropping like flies. The beautiful white sand beaches of Boracay and Panay are now stained with China’s deadly coronavirus. The UK is teetering on a tightrope and can go either way. UK Prime Minister Johnson recovers from his near-death covid experience and is back at the helm now receiving deserved criticism for a slow response to the pandemic.

Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile are descending into covid Hell this month. These nations are in deep trouble with new cases spiking over the last day or few. At best, they would hope to peak out on their respective active case bell curves at the end of the month and early June. China’s COVID-19 virus is a lingering stink. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls.

News reports say Nigeria is experiencing a mysterious increase in deaths. There is no mystery; it is COVID-19. Africa will be hit hard by the coronavirus. Blacks are impacted worse by the virus. Africa will be hit with a triple whammy; the virus attacks blacks preferentially, African nations are generally poor lacking medical supplies and adequate healthcare systems, and people and families live in close proximity to each other.

In the United States, the nine hardest hit states thus far, according to the total virus cases, are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Texas. Looking at the New Jersey new case bar chart, new cases peaked on 4/3/20, however, 4/4/20, 4/14/20, 4/16/20 and 4/23/20 are all only a whisker from the 4/3/20 peak. Adding 28 days to the 4/3/20 new case peak date yields 5/1/20 as the projected peak in the active case bell curve for New Jersey. However, the active case bell curve is not flattening it continues higher. Thus, those other high new case numbers carry weight. Using the latest 4/23/20 peak new case number, the projected peak in the active case bell curve is 5/21/20 for Jersey.

Looking at the Pennsylvania new case bar chart, the new case peak date is 4/24/20 so adding 28 days projects a peak in the active case bell curve for Penn’s Woods on 5/22/20. Florida’s new case peak is 4/17/20 so it is projected to peak with active cases on 5/12/20. Texas’s new case peak is 5/1/20 so it is projected to peak with active cases on 5/29/20 at the end of the month. Texas is restarting its economy as the new cases print a new high on Friday. That may not end well. Oddly, the active case bell curve chart for Texas shows a peak on 5/1/20 and drop for 5/2/20 but that is not correct considering the higher new case data (the active case bell curve should print higher highs ahead). The jaggedness of the data hints that Texas likely has issues with testing and reporting.

In general, the few states mentioned are generally in line with the projection that America will peak on the active case bell curve mid-month with some states not peaking until the back-end of the month. Is it too soon to already be restarting the economy? Your answer probably depends on whether you cheer for the Republican Tribe or if you cheer for the Democrat Tribe. Taking the Texas data alone, new cases are at a peak right now! This data blatantly does not meet President Trump’s criteria for the new cases to level-off or drop for 14 consecutive days before restarting the economy. People do not care; they are starting up their businesses anyway. Trump’s guidelines are a joke. Folks are out there doing what they want only semi-listening to the president who loosely presides over the chaotic disorganization.

The coronavirus will be part of our lives for a bit longer and it is appearing more and more that herd immunity will be the final result. There are promising treatments and vaccines in the news which pump the US stock market higher until Friday’s mini-crash.

Gilead, which is pronounced Gill-e-id, like fish gill’s, and trades under the GILD ticker symbol, reports a promising trial with its antiviral Remdesivir drug. The media and public become wildly excited this week on the news and GILD stock receives a healthy pump. But not so fast. The trial indicates that one-half of patients recovered from coronavirus four days faster than the group that took a placebo. That is not too exciting and also it is an IV (intravenous) drug (you have to be in the hospital). China performed a trial with the drug and did not have encouraging results. Remdesivir helps some COVID-19 patients recover faster if administered early in the illness. Not exactly a panacea.

There are many scientists working on a vaccine. President Trump is investing in companies pursuing vaccines and proclaims that 300 million dosages of vaccine will be available by the end of the year. Donnie’s ramblings are becoming funnier and more creative as he ages. Trump will say he is being optimistic about vaccines so in other words, that statement is meaningless. Most scientists continue saying that even if they can develop a vaccine it would be in 2021 and 2022 before widespread use occurs. However, instead of Gloomy Gus’s and Negative Nancy’s, let’s all be optimistic Pollyanna’s right now like the president, our fearless orange-headed leader, and relax believing that solutions to all out problems will arrive shortly like manna from heaven.

The Federal Reserve and US government is dropping subsistence from heaven. Big shot US politicians spend $4 trillion like it is nothing paying folks above unemployment compensation. Who would want to work? The answer is not many since most prefer the vacation collecting all the free money (it is not really free since anyone working pays into the system and is entitled to collect when their job is lost). People will think differently when the party money runs out and they realize their job is gone forever.

In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, and 30 million people unemployed in six week’s time, Great Depression stuff, Congress is on recess. The Senate is headed back to work but the 100 politicians are concerned since there are not enough tests to make sure all are healthy. That is hilarious, although again, tragic. These people could not manage their way out of a paper bag. President Trump bragged on 3/6/20 that anyone could have a virus test that wanted one. It was a lie two months ago and is a lie today. However, maybe Donnie was talking about himself and his staff. Apparently, these folks in the Whitehouse, including King Donnie and Prince Pence, are taking multiple tests per week. Apparently, hoarding supplies does not only hold true for the communist China leadership.

The dysfunction continues with lawmakers figuring out how to return to work when there is still not enough testing kits and supplies to meet the enormous demand. What a sad state of affairs it all is. The global shortages of masks, gowns, PPE, testing supplies and equipment, etc.. continues. One of the problems is the short supply of raw fabric material used to manufacture masks and gowns. The makers are forced to decide how to split the production runs and a lot more masks can be made from a section of fabric than gowns, therefore, gowns are becoming the increasing problem. There are several videos showing nurses wearing garbage bags as gowns but caution is advised since some of these depictions are actually smart nurses using the garbage bags over their gowns for extra protection. More power to all the caregivers if they can find ways that further protects them from the deadly Wuhan virus.

Trump is all-in with the economy restart. The Donald’s cards are all laid on the table. The president is cheerleading the reopening of the US economy. As mentioned above, however, many states do not even meet his criteria for phase one. Nobody cares, not even the president; open your business anyway. The virus situation falls into more confusion and disarray daily.

The president will live or die by the sword. He has made his economic bed and now he must sleep in it. Over the coming days and weeks, we find out if the coronavirus peters out quickly rewarding Trump with a great win for restarting the economy right away, or, as the above data indicates, the virus will stick around in May and even linger into June, hurting the economic restart, and sending consumer sentiment and confidence into the crapper.

Trump’s reelection hopes ride directly on the economy; this is why he is so anxious at reopening businesses. His democrat opponent in the November presidential election is Joe Biden who is busy handling a sex scandal of his own right now. Joey and Donnie are apparently both frisky with the ladies. Comically, in six months, Americans will choose between two silver-haired women-fondling white guys. That’s funny. If this is what Americans want, give it to them; shove it right down their throats. This must be the way that crony capitalism ends.

The Daily New Cases in the United States chart above, provided by Worldometer and annotated by Keystone, shows the 4/24/20 peak in new cases which took out the prior 4/4/20 peak. This is due to America continuing to play catch-up with testing which identifies more virus cases. Comically, for the US as a whole, it does not reach President Trump’s 14-day flat or lower trend in new cases to implement phase one of the economy restart. States, 32 in all, and Florida, Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri tomorrow, are forging ahead with restarting their economies each with a different path forward. There is no cohesive leadership direction from the Whitehouse so each state is doing its own thing creating confusion at borders. Trump has been dumping responsibility off on the states over the last couple weeks no doubt to blame them in the future for any mishaps.

On the Daily New Cases in Pennsylvania chart, the Keystone state, the new cases also peak on 4/24/20 so Pennsylvania’s projected date for flattening the active case bell curve is 5/21/20 same as the entire US. The red circle on the Active Cases in the United States chart shows when the peak in new cases occurred on 4/24/20. The Keystone Model predicts, for countries that were not prepared to handle the coronavirus, that the peak in the active case bell curve occurs 28 days after the new case peak. Thus, all of you will have to form your own opinion as to whether you think the economy is reopening to quickly, or not.

The Total Coronavirus Deaths in the United States is a sad chart. Cue Chopin’s Funeral March as Keystone provides the bad news. The most surprising aspect of the data is how the deaths continue rising even for the more successful countries listed above. The total deaths in countries continue higher and higher even after the peak in active cases. 100,000 Americans may perish from China’s bioweapon mistake by Independence Day (July 4th). The virus preferentially targets the elderly so recoveries must be very difficult.

Another segment of the population that the virus is attacking in higher numbers is the black community. It is reminiscent of the sickle-cell anemia disease in the 1970’s. Scientists are trying to figure out this mutating coronavirus that is causing many different symptoms and attacking different ethnic groups in higher numbers. The native Americans in the Navajo Nation territory are also dealing with high numbers of infections. These ethnic groups tend to be poorer and live in closer habitation with one another.

The ships are also breeding grounds for viruses. Not only cruise ships but the US Navy. Two war ships, the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the USS Kidd are reporting 1100 and 100 virus infections, respectively. The sailors are dropping like flies. No wonder the Pentagon and Defense Department have decided to no longer provide reports on the armed forces concerning coronavirus.

America is getting back to work and as explained above it appears to be a bit of a crap shoot. The data hints that it Is too early but time will tell. President Trump will appear on Fox News this evening at 7 PM EST. Of course he will. Fox is the republican-leaning cable news network. CNN and MSNBC are the democrat-leaning networks along with the broadcast channels ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS and NPR, all liberal leaning. Do not feel bad for the republicans, however, since they dominate talk radio with cheerleaders such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity. Newsmax is a newer network that also touts the right-wing like Fox. Breitbart provides news with the republican slant while the New York Times and Washington Post (think Jeff Bezos) provide news from the liberal perspective. This is crony America on full display. Everyone has a political agenda.

The lack of testing supplies continues in the US. Some testing units sit there idle since there are shortages and unavailability of test tubes, reagents, testing fluids and swabs to gather the samples from the patients and run the tests. The Whitehouse is helping states gather some supplies but at the same time keeps dumping blame on the states. Governors keep their mouths shut because if they criticize King Donnie, their state may get screwed out of aid. This allows the president to say the states have everything and they are not complaining. Isn’t the crony capitalism system great?

Experts say that 3-1/2 to 4 million tests are needed per week in America, some say 5 million, to get a handle on covid. The biggest day of testing thus far in the US was 300K tests a few days ago so there is lots of work to do. Pence claims all is fine with testing.

Protests and social unrest continue in cities across the United States. Folks demonstrate at Michigan’s courthouse fueled by Trump’s tweet stirring the mess. Donnie interjects himself into Michigan politics since the female democrat governor is imposing stay-at-home rules but Trump encourages otherwise. Isn’t that rich? Instead of helping, Donnie prefers to stir the Michigan mess and try to score political points for the November election hoping the democrat governor fails. What a country.

Several of the protesters displayed firearms and the demonstrations were generally peaceful. Normal people do not shoot other people with guns; only nutcases shoot people with guns. Trudeau just took away firearms from Canadians. At least the United States has it written in the Constitution so it will not be as easy to do the same bone-headed act in America.

Protests are occurring at the meat-packing plants that are breeding zones for coronavirus. Plants in South Dakota, Iowa and Washington are shut down. Meat prices climb higher. More people lose jobs.

There are lots of housekeeping issues with other coronavirus news as follows. The key Whitehouse scientist for the pandemic, Dr Fauci, is missing in action the last several days and appears to take more of a backseat. Donnie does not like the doctor’s contradictory statements. Trump will not permit Fauci to testify before the House (democrat-controlled) concerning the ongoing pandemic saying the doctor is too busy but then says the doctor will appear before the Senate (republican-controlled) committee on 5/12/20. Political baby games have destroyed the United States.

Vice President Pence was videotaped this week not wearing a mask as he toured the Mayo Clinic. Pence looked like a first-class idiot walking around without a mask while everyone else donned masks and other PPE. He said later he is routinely tested and did not think he needed a mask. The next day, however, at an auto parts manufacturer, he did wear a mask. President Trump recommended everyone wear a mask but in the same breath he said it is not for him. You cannot make the stuff up. America is in a new Gilded Age where the privileged class lives by a different set of rules than the huddled masses.

Trump wants to take a trip to Arizona in the days ahead and when asked by reporters he said he would don a face mask. It is guaranteed that the entire global media will be waiting for the photo of Donnie in a mask. It will be priceless and serve as YouTube fodder for months to come. Trump’s last campaign rally was 3/2/20 and on 3/6/20 is when the president made the stupid statement that he expected the virus cases to go to zero by the following week. As Get Smart would say, “he missed it by thiiisssss much.”

The fiscal aid provided by Congress is another windfall for the corrupt bankers. The banksters are placing $10 billion in fees in their pockets for handling the loans to small businesses. The bastards are given all that money for providing loans to their preferred customers instead of Ma and Pa businesses as intended. Would you expect anything less in crony America? The huddled masses are beginning to retrieve their stockpile of torches and pitchforks from the garage.

Many Americans still have not received their individual government payments or unemployment. At the same time, they watch the corrupt bankers and corporations pass the government money around to one another. Businesses receive money before individuals; the huddled masses will remember this during the future class war.

The US Q1 (Jan-Feb-Mar) GDP is down -4.8% call it a contraction of -5% the sharpest drop since the Great Recession 11 years ago and the virus only impacted March. Stocks have been rallying strongly off the March bottom due to the Federal Reserve and other central banker money printing just like the last 11 years.

China refutes the US accusation that the virus started from the Wuhan bioweapons laboratory. Of course they do. US Intelligence says the virus is not manmade. President Trump’s rhetoric against China is becoming louder. Donnie likely needs to blame China for the next six months into the November election which may seriously strain the Xi-Trump and US-China relationships.

In North Korea, Dictator Kim Jung-un reappears and US intelligence says the videos look legitimate. There are no reasons given for his 20-day absence. Probably the virus. If the Chinese doctors saved his fat little arse, he will be beholding to his communist neighbors. All that time away from the cameras and he still has a bad haircut.

Summing up the current status of the coronavirus tragedy, the US will likely peak out in active cases on 5/21/20. The jury is out as to whether the restart of the US economy is premature, or not. Considering that the active cases may not peak for another 2 to 3 weeks, the reopening may be too soon. The countries that were well prepared for a pandemic with testing protocols and plenty of medical supplies and PPE on hand recovered the fastest.

Testing is key in getting a handle on the virus and for reopening the economy. Coronavirus deaths continue to move higher for nearly all countries long after the peak in active cases occurs. US-China relations may deteriorate over the coming weeks and months since Trump will need to beat up on the communists and blame them for all of America’s woes going into the November election.

Note Added 6:15 PM EST: S&P futures tank out of the gate on Sunday evening down -44 points.

Note Added 7:14 PM EST: President Trump begins his Fox News appearance sitting with reporters in front of the Lincoln Memorial. It is comical that whenever most Americans are asked who the best president was most will exclaim, “Lincoln.” Idiots. Lincoln was the biggest racist in the crowd. He wanted to send the slaves back to Africa, the Caribbean Islands and South America. When his lieutenants and cabinet told him logistically that would not be possible, he moved towards freeing the slaves and is then credited as a historic civil rights icon. Lincoln is also to blame for creating the massive bureaucracy in government. The big expansion in US government that continues to this day started under Lincoln’s watch. You would be best served if you did not pick Abe as your fave. Revisionist history writing is standard human fare. Everything is hype and entertainment in the bread and circus days; the final months and years of crony capitalism. S&P futures are down -36 points as President Trump speaks.

Note Added 7:35 PM EST: S&P -41. Quick, Donnie, start tap-dancing because you are losing ground. Trump again states that a vaccine should be available by the end of the year.

Note Added 8:11 PM EST: S&P -44. WTIC oil is crashing -8%. Here we go. Trump begins talking about his favorite subject; the ventilators. It’s hilarious. Da vendaladors, da vendalators, we’re the best, blah, blah, blah. That’s Our Donnie. The president is going off on rants this evening. Trump wants businesses to get back to work and encourages hospitals to begin elective surgeries again. The president proclaims, "It's all right with us" wanting companies to reopen but he says it is up to the governors. President Trump sadly states that it is likely that 100K Americans may die from China's coronavirus. A couple weeks ago the president said the deaths would not surpass the 60K range. He must have been reviewing Keystone's US virus death chart above during commercial breaks. From a different venue, Secretary of State Pompeo continues stating that the coronavirus came from a Wuhan laboratory. US-China relations will be more strained after Trump's comments this evening.

Note Added 8:55 PM EST: S&P -51. Dow futures -401. Nazzy futures -154. Asian indexes are trading lower South Korea's KOSPI is down -2.6%. Australia and New Zealand are each off more than -1%. China is not trading today.

Note Added 1:27 AM EST on Monday Morning, 5/4/20: S&P -23. Dow -203. Nasdaq -73. WTIC oil drops -6.1% to 18.53. Brent oil is down -1% at 26.11. Gold 1701. Silver 15.01. Copper -0.8%. 10-year yield 0.61%.

Note Added 6:05 AM EST on Monday Morning, 5/4/20: S&P -37. Dow -353. Nasdaq -97. Russell -26. WTIC oil drops -8%. Brent oil is down -3%. Gold 1706. Silver 15.05. Copper -1.0%. 10-year yield 0.60%. It is a riskoff day in markets as evidenced by lower futures, lower oil, lower copper and a flight to safety with traders seeking gold, silver and US Treasuries which sends bond and note prices higher and yields lower. Germany, France, the UK and Italy all trade lower as follows, respectively. DAX plummets -3.4%. CAC mini-crashes -4%. FTSE -0.3%. MIB is squashed -3.1%.

Note Added 5:53 AM EST on Tuesday Morning, 5/5/20: The stock market held in there yesterday ending the day roughly flat with investors becoming more optimistic now that businesses are open everywhere. Can you imagine the disappointment if things have to be shut down again? The University of Washington model forecasts over 134K deaths in the United States from COVID-19 by early August. This report receives lots of media attention yesterday and today sending everyone into a tizzy.

Note Added 12:13 PM EST on Wednesday, 5/6/20: Stocks chop sideways the SPX is at 2865. The daily coronavirus circus of confusion continues. President Trump proclaims that "there will be more death" but in the next breath says the "US has to open" and he wants everyone back to work. Donnie opines about 100K people dying in America but a minute later says the coronavirus task force will be disbanded this month. It's hilarious and gets better. Today, Trump says the task force will now continue on indefinitely. Tune in to the reality television show presidency tomorrow because Donnie may decide to nix the task force again; check your local listings. Donnie's schtick it to keep your attention, as any good stage performer and showman would, so you have to tune in tomorrow; he feeds off the limelight, the attention, the adoration from those that choose to bestow it. Trump does not care that he changes his mind from one day to the next because that makes you tune in the next day with bated breath wondering what will happen next. The president took a trip to Arizona and of course he did not wear a mask. Of course he didn't. The privileged class tells the little peasant huddled masses to wear masks and obey like trained monkey's while America's elite live by a different set of rules. America is truly in a new Gilded Age; the land of the have's and have-not's. Comically, the plant workers are wearing their masks with Donnie yelling questions in their ears from three feet away (1 m), above the noise of the machinery; someone needs to tap Donnie on the shoulder and tell him he is supposed to be wearing a mask so as not to jeopardize others with his cooties. However, he is King Donnie and royalty does not contract such contrite peasant diseases; such illnesses and viruses only inflict the unwashed masses. Humorously, you cannot make the stuff up, Trump was touring a mask manufacturing plant without wearing a mask. He was yelling questions and comments to an employee as his sputum lands in the basket of newly made masks in front of him. The hits keep on coming. The plant gives Trump a plaque with a mask on it. You simply have to belly-laugh out loud. President Trump prohibits Dr Fauci from testifying before the democrat-controlled House but he will appear before the republican-controlled Senate. The Whitehouse says the doctor is too busy but Donnie comes clean and admits it is politically motivated calling the House "Trump-hater's" and that is why he blocks the testimony that helps the public understand the coronavirus and all the actions to date. Trump simply does not want his mistakes to come out in full view which will hurt his reelection campaign. Don't you love dirtbag crony capitalism; just be happy that it is on its way out during the years ahead. Trump will make some decisions gong forward based on his winning reelection rather than what is helpful for the pandemic; it is the campaign season now with or without the virus. The rumor mill is busy these days with suggestions that son-in-law Jared, that creepy skinny dude that typically spends his day hiding behind the drapes at the Whitehouse listening to people's conversations, is busy handing out favors and free money to Trump loyalists during the pandemic. The political climate, Republican Tribe versus Democrat Tribe, the jagoffs in both tribes, and those that support them, place their tribal politics and interests ahead of the what is good for the country as a whole. Americans understand this more each week as evidenced by the ranks of the corrupt parties sinking and the independent grouping in the middle, that does not want anything to do with either party, growing for the last 20 years. The independents will decide who is in the Whitehouse come next January (after the November election) since the two tribes will vote their party (republicans think Donald Trump is the Second Coming, just like the democrats thought former President Obama was the Second Coming, while democrats dislike (never use the word hate since it brings bad mojo upon society) Donnie, his braggadocio showman personality and his bourgeois politics). The coronavirus tragedy is political with both tribes commenting on the red (republican) states versus blue (democrat) states. The color red and the elephant signify the republicans, the GOP (grand ole party) and conservatives while the color blue and the donkey signify the democrats, liberals and progressives. This is why most of the time you will see President Trump donning a red necktie. When he wants to make a statement about unity with Congress, he may wear a blue tie. The republicans say the blue states are hit harder by the virus, which is true, but this is mainly because New Jersey, New York and California are on the coasts and the first landing areas for the virus. The black community is hit harder by the virus than other ethnicities, also Native Americans. The blue democrat states are where the larger cities are and where more of the poverty appears in daily life. The poor, disadvantaged and lower middle class tend to suffer from diabetes, hypertension, obesity and even asthma so many are in bad shape if they contract COVID-19. The democrats will try to get additional money to bail out states with huge debt such as Illinois, New Jersey, New York and California but the republicans want the new fiscal funding to only target virus relief. So this will be the new political football kicked around over the next month. Donnie succeeded in stirring up trouble in Michigan. A security guard for a retail store told a lady to put on a mask, as per the state law that Trump is telling the citizenry to basically ignore, so the lady leaves and comes back with her husband and a friend and the nutcases shoot the security guard. The natives are getting restless out there. You cannot blame the murder on Donnie, it was simply a nutcase pulling the trigger that will now spend his life in prison, but Trump's rhetoric and words denigrating and causing trouble for states run by democrat governors, to help his reelection campaign, are not helpful for the troubled nation. Donnie should have listened to Mom when she told him that 'if he cannot say anything nice about someone, then don't say anything at all'. China says Secretary of State Pompeo is "evil"and  "liar." It takes one to know one. The communists want to see proof of the accusation that the virus came from a Wuhan lab, but they will not allow anyone to investigate. The world is such a wonderful place. It is better that you do not know many things since 'ignorance is truly bliss'. Russia has tossed three doctors from windows that have not followed the Kremlin's demands in handling the out-of-control virus tragedy. Two die and the other is dribbling out of the side of his mouth with a brain injury. This is Dictator Putin's Russia. The one doctor did not want to change her facility into a covid hospital so she went flying with the birds, of course with the help of a couple of strong KGB agents. Russia is down-playing the virus tragedy since Putin is in a tight spot. Oil prices have collapsed and energy production is the life blood for the Ruskies. Russians have been suffering a few years and were promised a better economy in 2020 but now things will get worse. Russia is in COVID-19 Hell. The news is coming at you in waves these days. Nothing changes in the United States. The elite class is busy lining their pockets with the Fed's monetary easy money and the government's fiscal free dough while Ma and Pa Kettle go out of business and lose their livelihoods. Unemployment programs are a mess with many Americans not receiving checks as yet but the wealthy class always takes theirs off the top; such is life in America's 'faux free market crony capitalism financial system'.

Note Added 5:05 PM EST on Wednesday, 5/6/20: The comical Arizona mask saga continues. President Trump claims he wore a mask behind the stage at the event but the Honeywell executives told him not to wear it so he did not. When asked how long he had a mask on he would not say. The stuff is hilarious. Donnie's vanity. King's do not don masks; the stupid lowly peasants, the great unwashed, simply do not understand this fact. It's priceless. Reality television Donnie knows how to keep you coming back tomorrow; tune in again when Trumpy announces his next trip and the conjecture begins about whether the orange-headed leader will don a white mask this time, or not. The schtick does get old after a while. There is an eerie calm in the United States this evening. 43 states out of 50 are in various stages of restarting their respective economies. People have no choice because they need the money for food and rent. The natives are getting restless and folks are out and about now almost like before the virus hit. Some people walk around with masks on halfway exposing the nose, or wearing a stained mask that looks like it just fell on the floor. The social distancing rules are being followed less and less. Hence, the eerie calm. A lonely harmonica plays "Oh Shenandoah" that echoes across the valley, like the somber evening's before another daily battle at Gettysburg. Everyone knows something will happen but no one knows what. America's destiny is ahead, perhaps only days ahead. The economy is open again. The incubation period of COVID-19 is from 2 to 14 days. One of these two outcomes will win; which will it be? A solid economy and markets going forward as the data shows no significant change in coronavirus infections and deaths, or, the covid infections begin increasing rapidly as the incubation period flourishes and the president and governors are forced to turn tail and run, thereby guaranteeing a bearish fate forward for the stock market and economy, a la the Great Depression. 

Note Added 2:25 AM EST on Thursday, 5/7/20: New York Governor Cuomo and medical professionals are stunned at recent data showing that 66% of the new coronavirus infections are people that sheltered in place. How could that be? It blatantly tells you that the Federal (Trump administration) and state governments (republican and democrat governors and senators) are completely clueless as to what is going on with the deadly COVID-19 virus. All that talking, day after day on television, over three months of it, and the government and medical people do not know what they are doing. If the people following the stay-at-home order are getting sick, than they got it through their daily mail delivery or other package deliveries or the virus is airborne or some other reason. Keystone surmises that the coronavirus droplets may be smaller and finer than other virus strains and therefore remains in the air longer. It is like walking into an old house and stirring up years of dry dust by your movements. As the sunlight comes through a window, you can see all the fine dust particles floating in the air with no intention of settling anytime soon. Perhaps that virus floats and lingers longer in the air than anyone understands? The coronavirus tragedy likely does not end well. "Hey, buddy, can you spare a dime?" Worldometer places the US coronavirus death count at near 75K. CNN places the death rate at over 73K. Trump spokespeople claim the US death numbers are inflated and may actually be around 40K. A major republican talking point in recent weeks was how COVID-19 is not killing as many people as the regular flu each year (typically around 60K). Republicans, and their respective media mouthpieces such as Fox News, Breitbart, talk radio and Newsmax, do not say this anymore. Two people are shot at a McDonald's in Oklahoma City. Two nutcase customers went berserk shooting the two restaurant employees when they were told they had to wear a mask or leave the dining room. The natives are getting restless. A Chinese professor at the University of Pittsburgh, working on important COVID-19 research, is shot and killed in an alleged murder-suicide but the other man is not yet identified. The strangeness continues. They're goin' to destroy, our casual joys.