University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Is Lowest in History

US consumer sentiment is at 44.8 the lowest in history (data started in the 1960's). It is not surprising since there is a joint relationship between gasoline prices and consumer sentiment for decades. The rising gasoline prices are pounded into the human mind since people see the gas station signs on every street corner. Then they fill up their tank and are punched in the face. Consumers then get the mindset that they cannot spend frivolously and must instead tighten the purse strings. The high gasoline prices creates negative sentiment and viola, it shows up in the historic number released by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

When Americans see prices falling at the pump, the opposite mindset occurs. Sine it costs less to fill the tank, that is more money to spend, or save, and things are looking rosy. Consumer sentiment rises and reflects a healthy economy and happy attitudes.

America is the land of the have's and have-not's. This is why consumer spending is holding up. In years gone by, the stock market would already be flushed down the toilet, but the obscene money printing by the Federal Reserve for over 20 years, and non-stop fiscal spending by the US government, including COVID-19 stimulus, has made the wealthy class rich beyond their expectations. The easy money the Fed and government provide goes into the stock market making the rich, that own stocks, filthy wealthy. It is a rigged game. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock.

The Federal Reserve members love to be accommodative, dovish, giving a backroom nod to the Wall Street investment banks (because most of the easy money flows into the stock market). The Fed members are rewarded with lucrative speaking engagements at the large money-center banks for their loyalty to Wall Street once they leave public life providing the quid pro quo. Isn't is sickening. It is called crony capitalism filth.

The United States is a crony capitalism filth system in its final throes. Capitalism does not exist. Most people are too stupid to understand what is happening. Others do not care. The wealthy class does understand and does not care since they have raped the financial system for all it is worth over the last six decades. It is appropriate that the divide between rich and poor now is the widest since the 1970's when similar garbage was playing out.

Still others know what is occurring but remain in denial with fingers crossed that everything will work out eventually. No it will not. You cannot fix America's crony capitalism system anymore. Everything is corrupt to the core. The debt barrels towards $40 trillion with King Donnie Chumpski spending money like a drunken sailor adding from $2 to $4 trillion in debt per year on top of that. Of course he does. He is a real estate guy. They all worship debt.

The reason for the unrest in society is that there is no longer a middle class. Former President Ronnie Ray-gun (his derogatory nickname during the 80's) busted the unions and set out to destroy the middle class and he succeeded. Reagan wanted to enrich his wealthy class political donors that own the companies and stock market. The lucrative middle class jobs, such as draftsmen, scientists, engineers, designers, etc..., were sent overseas to take advantage of the slave labor. A company did not want to pay a US engineer $30 per hour back then when they could hire a foreigner out of China or India at $6 bucks an hour. The lower expenses sent company stocks, that they all own, to the moon making the wealthy class rich beyond measure. They control the game. Those jobs that were destroyed and sent overseas built the middle class neighborhoods across America. It's over.

Fast forward to the 2020's and you have 30 million Americans in the wealthy class at the top that screwed the 300 million peons at the bottom; the have's and have-not's. Human greed knows no bounds, folks. Once you have a bunch of money, you can live anywhere you want in the world. As the US devolves into chaos and violence with each passing month, a wealthy person can watch it on television as they lay on a beach in Belize or the Bahamas.

The middle class was the glue that held the country together. It no longer exists so the common folks are clinging to any lifeline available to help deal with the Trumpflation especially the higher gasoline prices. Decades back, the poor and disadvantaged folks would reach out to local churches for help but many have shunned religion in the modern days distracted by technology's glitz and glamour analogous to the shiny gold bull idol in the desert.

Common folks that cannot make ends meet are reaching out to any organization that can give them a hand-up including the controversial groups like BLM, antifa, etc... This is how Hamas got a grip on Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. People are struggling to survive and here comes someone that can help. It is easy to then get sucked in to their teachings and beliefs as they provide food and help. Even animals know that you do not bite the hand that feeds you.

Consumer sentiment is also in the toilet bowl due to Trumpski's daily chaos, antics such as posting little baby memes and video shorts that boost his frail ego, and war. It does not help that America used to be the shining city on the hill but King Donnie has now made the US the shining predator nation on the hill. The orange head needs content for his daily presidential reality television show that is why he creates drama and constantly comments on every little news item. As he turns 80 however, he is having difficulty keeping his lies straight.

Trumpski will berate a reporter for asking if he has a plan with the Iran War but then a meeting is held and concluded at the Whitehouse yesterday with the politicians admitting that they did not agree on a plan going forward. Isn't that wonderful? It does not matter who is president since they are all corrupt and the crony capitalism system, that cannot be fixed, is gasping its last breaths.

If people are unable to admit that capitalism does not exist, the country has zero hope. You first have to admit that you have a problem if you want to fix it, like Alcoholics Anonymous for the drunkards. All of you, please stand up. Repeat after me. "I, state your name, admit that capitalism does not exist. America is a corrupt crony capitalism filth system on its last legs." There, that was not so hard was it? Capitalism only exists in theoretical business text books but never in practice because of human greed (corruption) and non-transparency (the truth is hidden from the public). It is simple to understand. Do not fight it.

The historic low in consumer sentiment is another milepost passed on the primrose path to Hell. The key point to remember is that 300 million Americans are a bigger number than 30 million. What do you think is going to happen in the months and few years forward? As the saying goes, 'payback's a bitch'. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, finally flips long at SPX 7378 after this month's ongoing odd stock market behavior. Humorously, however, the quant already wants to flip back to the short side. Banks, utilities, and retail stocks are all that matter.

Keybot the Quant

US 30-Year Treasury Yield Monthly and Weekly Charts; Ascending Triangle; 30-Year Yield Tags 5.20% Not Seen Since 2007

The US 30-year Treasury yield tags 5.20% yesterday, 5/19/26, overtaking the 5.18% high from late 2023, and testing the high yields from 2007 almost 20 years ago.

The weekly chart shows a long-term ascending triangle in play a bullish pattern (in this case talking yields, it is bullish yields that means bonds are sold off and not wanted driving yields higher; for notes and bonds it would be bullish yields and bearish the note and bond prices). Traders are wiping their buttocks with the 30-year yield as it breaks up and out of the ascending triangle.

Since this 5.0%-ish area, call it 4.8% to 5.2% is so important due to the chart activity, expect some choppiness and back-kissing in this area going forward. Drilling down to get a good pattern match is the blue ascending triangle. Its baseline is 4.95% and the bottom of the vertical side is 4.30%. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, and therefore and ergo, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Spring Jubilee. The difference gives 65 basis points for the blue vertical side so adding that to the baseline breakout level is 4.95% plus 0.65% = 5.60% as the upside target for the 30-year yield on a weekly basis.

Looking at the vertical side of the orange triangle is 4.00% to 5.05% so that is 1.05% difference and a 6.10% upside target on a monthly basis (5.05%+1.05%). King Donnie Trumpski wants lower rates not higher rates.

The chart indicators are a mixed bag not surprising since the yield has been in a sideways choppy funk for the last couple years. There is near-term upside momentum for yields for the next couple weeks but the RSI and stochastics are at or near overbot levels thinking about a pullback on the weekly basis so yield can catch its breath after the orgy spike. There is negative divergence over the long-term so a move through the green channel at 4.60%-5.20% or 5.30% may continue for a very long time ahead.

Yield would be expected to come down and back kiss the baselines of the triangles at 4.95%-5.05% to show respect before resuming the upside. However, with the orange head in charge anything goes. Donnie Chump is Captain Chaos so expect anything ahead. Interestingly, the 10-year yield is displaying a sideways triangle breakout and the shorter duration 2-year and 5-year charts are seeing rising yields from a falling wedge breakout. All three are bullish, or in the yield case, upside patterns.

Inflation fears, Donnie's Iran War, and the worries in the fixed income arena sends yields higher. Goods inflation has skyrocketed over the last year. Oil prices are creating inflation. The Federal Reserve remains neutral even with an easing bias so they are out of touch. The bond vigilantes are at work sending rates higher so Chairman Warsh, taking over from Powell, will not be able to lower rates like Donnie Chump demands. There is a sign-in ceremony planned for Warsh at the Whitehouse on Friday, that should be performed at the Eccles Building, but Trumpski is letting Warsh know loud and clear that you are my little b*tch, buddy, and in my house kissing my butt, so you need to lower rates.

It will be interesting to see if Warsh has truly sold his soul over the last decade. One of the few people that Keystone and others could cling on to for hope for the US financial system back in 2007-2009 was Warsh. But his conservative stature and wanting to keep US debt in check, and limit bank bailouts, are apparently thrown out the window as he has strapped on dovish wings, started drinking the Kool-Aid, and wants easy money lower rates forever, worshipping the MMT model. People change, or do they?

One way you can get the change you want is to be a wolf in sheep's clothing. That gets you in the door to where you can implement the plans you feel are best for the country to heck with the people that got you there. Will Warsh stand up to Trump and not only not lower rates but hike rates as the year plays out? Markets must size-up Warsh and the path ahead for the Federal Reserve over the next 2 or 3 months.

The market has lost confidence in the Fed's handling of inflation as Warsh rides in on his pale green horse (the four horseman of the global financial apocalypse are the BOJ, ECB, PBOC and Fed). Horslips performs the Man Who Built America a huge one-hit wonder. Keystone built America and parts of the world and now watches it slowly destroyed by drones. It is our destiny. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5/21/26 at 6:41 AM EST:  Donnie panicked after perusing the above charts and ran to a microphone to proclaim that the Iran War is in its final stage. Bingo. Notes and bonds are bot sending yields lower. Stocks catapult higher. Oil drops. Small caps rally. The 30-year bond yield is now at 5.12%.

Note Added 5/23/26: The week ends with yields pulling back (bonds are bot). The 30-year is at 5.07% well off the 5.20% peak. Stick-save Donnie saves the day with happy talk. Warsh is sworn in at the Whitehouse. Good luck to him with inflation ramping higher because of Donnie's Iran War and at the same time US consumer sentiment is the lowest in history (data started in the 60's).

USD Dollar and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Inverse Relationship Being Sorted Out Over Last Month

The US dollar versus SPX inverse relationship is easy to see in the charts. In fact, the exact top in stocks in January occurred at the exact bottom in the dollar. Conversely the exact bottom in stocks as April started occurred at the exact top in the dollar. The party continued. The dollar collapses in early April sending stocks to the moon.

However, in the back half of April to present, the dollar moves into a sideways funk. That did not stop the stock market party. Funky Stuff by Kool and The Gang. Soul Train was cool and humorously, helped white guys develop rhythm. The stock market cannot get enough of that funky stuff.

The US dollar bounces between 98.00 and 99.25 creating the sideways blue channel. Traders are waiting to see which way the dollar goes so they know where the stock market is heading. The dollar's sideways funk creates confusion but the euphoric bullishness and rampant complacency in the stock market, as verified by the put/call ratios and other metrics, carries equities higher.

Note how the dollar pauses at the top rail of the channel at 99.25 realizing that the decision forward will have a major impact on the stock market. The stock bulls want a weaker dollar. Stock market bears want a stronger dollar.

In late April and early May, the price lows with the dollar were met with positive divergence by the indicators. A relief rally is expected since the indicators are refueled and voila, the dollar moves higher again. The last two days show matching highs in dollar price so the indicators can be assessed for potential neggie d to see if the dollar may top and head back down again. Nope.

You can see that the RSI is in negative divergence and the stochastics were overbot helping create the one day of sogginess. However, the histogram, MACD, stochastics and money flow are all long and strong with more fuel in their tanks to take dollar price higher. That means the dollar will likely break out above 99.25 probably running to one hundo and as that occurs, the dollar versus SPX inverse relationship should re-exert itself (that means dollar up in the days ahead and stocks down). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5/20/26 at 5:16 AM EST: The dollar pops to 99.47 now at 99.40. Of course it does.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence Signals Long-Term Stock Market Top but Watch the MACD as May Ends

The SPX monthly chart was posted on May Day and with April in the can, negative divergence was/is displayed across all chart indicators (red lines) signaling a major top. You can scroll back to read that post. Price continues higher but all the chart indicators are sloping lower showing that they are out of gas and can no longer push price higher.

This is a monthly chart so the stock market top is at a long-term significant top. It will begin a multi-month down move that can easily stretch into multi-year. That can be determined in the future by how the charts progress.

So the bears have their chests puffed out because this chart tells you that we are at the end game and this down move in equities coming will be a sick, long-term major pullback that could extend through the end of the year.

Now all that said, there is always a snake coming out of the woodpile. Focus on the MACD line. It remains neggie d, barely, with the bulls trying with all their might to create a higher high and extend the rally. Even if the MACD finished May higher, it would only extend the top by a month of two for a jog move (down in June, up in July for the top) to set the MACD with negative divergence.

However, the chart was already in neggie d 2 weeks ago after April and the MACD is at maximum nosebleed levels. One time several decades ago, Keystone went to a professional baseball game and needed hiking shoes to get up to the seats. It was like mountain climbing finally reaching the perch that made the players on the field look like ants. In addition, Keystone got vertigo at such a great height, and had shortness of breath from the rarified air. On top of all that drama, his nose started bleeding. Billie's nose is bleeding. Bad Guy.

There are 9 trading days remaining in May and the candlestick above will be cast in concrete and then the June candlestick will begin. The MACD line is in progress and its final position will not be known for 9 trading days. It will tell you if the long-term top is now and the multi-month down move begins, or, as said above, price may need to jog to allow time for the MACD to reset with neggie d if it finishes the month a hair higher.

The nosebleed level is key. The MACD is so high it may no longer matter that it is neggie d. It has absolutely nowhere to go but down. So the call remains for a multi-month top in stocks right now but maintain a hairy eyeball on the blue circle.

The red rising wedge squeezes in price at the top. It is a bearish pattern. There was a failure in early 2025 and also this year during the March swoon, but both recovered back up into the rising wedge. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 6395 is on the table going forward as well as the lower band at 5264.

The chart is a POS and this is a long-term look at the stock market going forward. All the corrupt Wall Street analysts raise SPX targets to near and well over 8K. Hey idiots, look at the chart above. Do not purposely screw your clients telling them to buy stocks when they are going to sink like stones in the months forward. The money managers make their dough on fees and moving shares to and fro and do not care that you will lose your shirt. You should know better than to trust a den of thieves.

If you are new to stock trading, get out before you lose your shirt. For example, it is easy to see the SPX potentially down to the 3000, 4000 or 5000 levels in a few months or year or two. So if you are a little techie, proudly wearing your fleece vest with company logo embroidered, and overpaid, looking for a place to put your dough since you are single and not dating any ladies, and want to place it all in the stock market, you will likely only have about one-half of your capital a year or so from now. That scenario will make you the bag holdin' sucka. Every significant top needs suckers. I'm Just a Sucker for Your Love. As Dave Chappelle says, "I'm Rick James, b*tch." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CRB Commodities Index Daily Chart; Runaway Trumpflation Fueled By Tariffs, Iran War, AI and Government Spending

Trumpflation is starting to give Bidenflation a run for its money. The CRB is focused on goods inflation but services inflation is impacted as well. If you provide a service, you are driving somewhere and using fuel so you have to charge more money for your services. Supplies and other expenses also move higher.

The chart shows the path of inflation. King Donnie Trumpski was reelected in November 2024 mainly because Americans did not want Kamala the cackling communist. The lesser of two evils was the orange headed bloviating carnival clown. Inflation continues higher after the election and into early 2025 but already begins to peak and level out as Donnie takes office and Sleepy Joe Biden, that is likely suffering from Alzheimer's and dementia, is taken away to a rest home where he can eat all the pudding he wants.

The goods inflation measured by the CRB falls out of bed a year ago as Trumpski's tariff announcement occurs in April 2025. Of course, King Donnie jumps on the pullback in goods inflation proclaiming that in only two months he has solved the higher prices problem, thank you very much. Elvis was the king. Suspicious Minds. Americans, are caught in a trap, but they can't get out, we can't go on together, with suspicious minds.

The CRB consists of crude oil, heating oil, natty gas, gasoline, cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, orange juice, soybeans, sugar, wheat, aluminum, copper, nickel, gold, silver, lean hogs and lean cattle. 

You can see that the Iran War mess sends oil, gasoline and the energy complex higher creating inflation. Way to go Donnie. You can see that the AI hype and data center euphoria needs tons of copper and silver. Tariffs raise prices across the board. Another orange head decision.

In one year, the CRB jumps from 280 to 4 hundo, a huge +43% rally. Even as you see prices rise for all your daily goods and services, the prices will continue higher. All of that huge spike is not yet priced in to the goods you buy but it will over the coming weeks. Bend over. Donnie said he does not care about American's financial situations so you are on your own. He does not care if gasoline prices are high for months to come because he proclaims that he is stopping Iran from having a nuclear bomb. If you ask the common American, they would rather have lower gasoline prices than chase around an Iranian nuclear bomb ghost in the dark. There it is! Where? Over there. No there. An orange head chases black shadows in the night.

Elvis, the real king, knew how to make the ladies swoon. Return to Sender. The club is hopping with a great music night and everyone having a good time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; 50-Week MA at 1109 Fails Ushering-In Stock Market Negativity

Utilities took it on the chin last week and no one noticed. That is because they are stupid. The utes have enjoyed a bigtime rally higher on the AI trade the last couple years but at 1200+, all indicators negatively diverged against the price, so the top was in, and voila, a multi-week downturn begins now in its sixth week starting tomorrow. The neggie d spankdown packs a punch.

Go back a few charts and read the prior utility chart post as a primer to this analysis. After a multi-week neggie d smackdown, price typically tries to start finding a bottom on the weekly basis. However, all the chart indicators remain weak and bleak. The RSI and stochastics are now sub 50% in bear territory. The money flow is flat so give that a small nod for a potential recovery week or so, but the other indicators want to see lower lows in price going forward on the weekly basis.

The two key metrics are the 15-week ago closing price, that establishes a weekly uptrend or downtrend, and the 50-week MA at 1109. The 50 failed yesterday ushering in market negativity. Now the fun begins.

The orange circle shows the closing price from 15 weeks ago at 1089. The utes remain in a happy weekly uptrend that means the broad stock market should also be in a happy uptrend. If the 1089 is lost, utes will slip into a weekly downtrend and that portends bad things ahead. In addition, look at the big white candlestick in February. The 1089 will be meaningless for the week of 5/26/26 (US markets are closed on Monday, 5/25/26 to celebrate Memorial Day) and replaced with the blue circle at 1171.18. Wowza.

When both metrics fail, the US stock market will typically fall into a significant downturn within zero to 2 months time. Remember, utes rolled over in the Fall last year, and as Keystone described the stock market top that was forming, he had ominous warnings since the utilities were falling bigtime. Then, as the stock market fell the end of February and the month of March, Keystone told you that a crash was off the table and the pullback would be more of the run of the mill variety. The SPX lost nearly -10% but quickly recovered to the current all-time highs. The 50-week MA did not fail at the end of last year and early this year so the fix was in. There would be a pullback due to the negative divergence Keystone was explaining but the serious downturn was taken off the table because utes would not completely fail.

So now we are reset and the utes are in a downturn for 5 weeks going on 6 weeks almost the whole distance of that zero to 2 month time allotment for the broad market to roll over. Things are getting real dicey right now. The broad stock market will be slapped down again and this time we may fall into a crash profile for stocks due to the utility wakness. It will be fun. Just think of all the panic that will show in people's eyes as they lose their shirts.

By Friday at 4 PM EST when the US stock market will close for the week, UTIL, or DJU, must be above the 1171 or there will be Hell to pay during the shortened holiday week that closes out the month. If the 1089 is lost this week, the Hell to pay is now.

So there is lots of fun ahead. Watch the key levels of 1089 and 1109 this week and then 1171 and 1109 next week. Bulls must regain 1109 if they want to take stocks higher again. Bears only need 4 bucks lower in price, to drive it under 1089, and the blood will flow on Wall and Broad.

The new moon peaked for the month about 14 hours ago. This is the darkest time overnight of the month. If King Donnie Trumpski plans to use military force to open the Strait of Hormuz, he will start the operation anytime over the coming days, maybe tonight to take advantage of the darkness with the US's superior night vision technology. Add about 7 hours for Iran time so 6 AM EST now is about 1 PM in Iran. They would be hit at night so look for some potential military action between 4 PM EST (11 PM Iran time) and 10 PM EST (5 AM Iran time). This pattern repeats each day forward for when military actions will resume in the Middle East. US futures open at 6 PM EST in less than 12 hours so it will be interesting to see if King Donnie tries to massage markets and to see how oil prices are reacting.

Good luck to all the Armed Forces in the days ahead especially since yesterday was Armed Forces Day to celebrate the Army, Marines, Navy, Air Force, Space Force and Coast Guard. Cher always knew how to let the men know what they are fighting for. If I Could Turn Back Time. Her son Chas is playing guitar; he used to be little Chastity Bono on the Sonny and Cher Show. The brass got in trouble for the video but it boosted the moral with the men and in the Navy so it was worth it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Continues Signaling Significant Stock Market Top Due to Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness

Hit the deck! Incoming! Incoming! The low put/calls over the last month forecast big trouble ahead due to the rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. Aunt Agnes took her entire life savings to the broker in town and he placed it all in NVDA stock. Agnes wanted to be diversified so he put half in NVDA and the other half in new IPO CBRS. If the major selling does not start today, it will in the days ahead.

The retail stocks, banksters, utilities and volatility will tell you the story. Bears need VIX above 20 to create real selling damage. UTIL, or DJU, losing 1109 would spell major trouble for stocks going forward. Bears need weaker banks to create negativity. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Continuing to Set-Up the Top but King Donnie Happy Talk Maintains Buoyancy

As the prior charts show, negative divergence occurs on the SPX daily chart so the top is in. The only thing that can change that is unknown news that hits the wires such as King Donnie Trumpski happy talk about the Iran War or other matters. The jubilation in semiconductors also maintains off the charts stock market enthusiasm.

The orgy move above SPX 7300, now 7400, occurs last week after the Donnie happy talk on Sunday, 5/3/26, hit the wires. Keystone was given a "SPX 7400" hat but a bird sh*t on it on the way home. As expected, the orange head pumped the markets ahead of the Sunday futures markets opening at 6 PM EST. The key phrase was 'no combat operations' are expected in Iran that sent futures higher. Donnie said China was involved in trying to end the Iran War.

Trumpski started Project Freedom to open up the Strait of Hormuz and that lasted 10 minutes. US ships were fired upon and an UAE oil port was damaged. Donnie labeled the Project Freedom operation as a humanitarian mission but it quickly ended so what do the people do that are suffering? Do they no longer need humanitarian aid, or was this just a lie? Trump is extremely worried that one of the US warships will be hit by a missile or drones and worst of all, sunk. He pulled back from Project Freedom because of this worry and from pressure from UAE and others that their ports and oil facilities are hit every time the orange head takes action. Does this sound like winning?

King Donnie said regime change was the reason he ordered the Iran War to begin but that quickly morphed into the messaging that it was to prevent Iran from having a nuclear bomb. Which story is it today? Israel told Donnie that all the Iranian leaders were gathered in one place and the low IQ orange head salivated over wiping out the radical terrorist leadership in one big hit. That lustful idea made Donnie name regime change as his original justification for his sole decision to go to war. The regime has not changed so he is back to touting the nuclear angle. These are the games all the corrupt politicians play as America faces the final stage of crony capitalism.

As the light blue line shows in the right margin of the previous daily chart, that was the outcome if happy talk occurs last week, and it did. It delays the top that was in neggie d only for a short few days or so and the chart will simply reset with neggie d again to call the top on the daily basis. The happy talk cannot continue forever.

The high gasoline prices and overall Trumpflation, like the Bidenflation, is hurting Americans bigtime. Family spending drops if the money has to go into the gas tank and this activity creates a sick negative economy. The tax savings from the so-called Big Beautiful Bill that Congress passed is going to pay higher electric and utility bills, due to AI, as well as other higher costs and of course putting gasoline in the car, due to Donnie's Iran War.

The Iran War Donnie hype talk continued every day last week and it was comical to see the SPX pop with each news bite. Trumpski boasted all week that an Iran deal was coming. That messaging morphed into a big Friday deadline of when Iran would provide a proposal to end the war. Iran is not on the same timeline as King Donnie. They do not care if things stretch out while Donnie wants the nightmare he created to end immediately. Idiot cabinet members and republican media were parroting the messaging into Friday evening in the US but it was already Saturday in Iran due to the time change, and Iran blew off the Friday deadline. People are stupid nowadays (add 7 or 8 hours for Iran time compared to US East Coast).

The Iran War is unpopular because one man started it; Donnie Trumpski. He never educated the American people on why a war with Iran was important. Donnie needed to educate Americans on the danger that Iran poses with nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, but he chose not to. Donnie needed to build a coalition of countries to help out with the Iran War, but he chose not to. His lust to, in his mind, bring Iran to its knees by eliminating the leadership in one big military hit, clouded his judgement and he decided to just pull the trigger and hope. He screwed the pooch.

Now his orange tail is between his legs and he lashes out at other countries demanding they help him with the mess he created with the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, last evening, Donnie makes a big mistake saying he does not care about the American people's financial situation painting himself as a hero preventing nuclear war. People do not want to hear this dribble when they cannot pay their bills or put food on the table. What color is the sky in Donnie's world? Probably orange.

So all that Donnie happy talk creates stock market enthusiasm only seen at bubble tops. The Aroon shows that nearly all the bulls are bullish for stocks (green line) while every bear is bullish the stock market (red line). That is hilarious. The low put/calls and Aroon verify the wild optimism for stocks along with rampant complacency and fearlessness. Traders now believe stocks are at a permanently high plateau and will never go down again a la Irving Fisher in 1929.

The uber bullishness is on display daily. Ed Yardeni ups his SPX target to 8250. Yardeni expects the S&P 500 to rally about 120 points per month for every month forward into the end of the year. As they say in the Bronx, "good luck wit dat." Others raise their targets expecting great things ahead this year for stocks.

It is a mirror image of last year. Donnie cratered the stock market with the tariff garbage a year ago, and April 2025 looked like doom and gloom. Wall Street analysts were tripping over each other to lower SPX targets. Then, as the rally took off higher, all the dolts ran back to revise targets again to the upside. This feels like the opposite. Everybody and his bro are increasing SPX targets, almost guaranteeing SPX 8K plus,  due to the AI hype and expectation that earnings will be through the roof this year. How do you think that will end? Perhaps in the summer frantically lowering the SPX targets again?

The red lines show the negative divergence remaining in place with the pesky MACD remaining a hair bullish (tiny green line). The chart went neggie d across all indicators, including the MACD, but that was stick-saved by King Donnie happy talk who no doubt has experienced technicians chained to desks in the basement of the Whitehouse explaining market machinations to him daily. Price would be expected to rise today to come near the prior highs due to the bullish fumes remaining in the MACD gas tank and futures are positive this morning. That is a good set-up for the MACD to lock in neggie d today and the top for the daily time frame (as long as the Donnie happy talk does not occur). Trumpski is on his way to China so he is sleeping in the airplane now.

The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band, that is the 20-day MA at 7202, and rising, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6962 and rising. There remains lots of gaps that will need filled on the downside especially that big gap at 6610-6750.

Despite the record-setting rally off the April low, the Aroon DOES NOT consider the bigtime rally to be a strong trend higher. Isn't that something? The last strong trend was down for markets in March but that dissipated when the rally off the bottom occurred (pink box). The fun continues.

Humorously, the Donnie pump talk continues this morning. S&P futures popped about 10 points a couple hours ago after it was announced that NVDA's Jensen would join Trumpski for the China trip. Emperor Jensen was not on the original list to attend the trip and Donnie saw how that was receiving lots of play on business media. Why was Jensen not invited? Trump steps in and tells Jensen to join him and voila, futures pop higher.

Isn't is sickening seeing the big corporations lie in bed with the US government daily? Eisenhower was right about the permanent military-industrial complex that is now the engrained permanent military-industrial-technology-pharmaceutical complex. Other than all of the above, things are going swimmingly. Everyone loves happy talk. Shiny Happy People. Enjoy it while it lasts. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Pay Attention to Utes While Charting the Path Forward

The utilities have been quiet for a couple months and more staggering sideways like the drunk in Times Square last evening. Every time a television talking head says data center, traders buy utility stocks trained like Pavlov's dog, until last week. Utes collapsed -4% last week and no one noticed. Utilities used to be called the widows and orphans stock since it was a Steady Eddie grower with a dividend and a perceived safety play in a downward moving stock market.

Now utes are tied to the AI boom and need for electric power and data centers that hum all night long creating sleepless nights for the neighbors. The AI and data center initial hype probably ran its course. Americans are already pushing back against higher electric bills as the wealthy class tried to slough off higher electricity costs, due to higher AI demand, on common folks. Communities are yelling NIMBY and BANANA at town hall meetings discussing approvals for data centers ('Not In My Back Yard' and 'Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Not Anytime').

So are the chickens coming home to roost? Chicken Train. Pass the bowl. The utilities are dropping faster than a prom dress at midnight. Keystone pointed out the top in the stock market in January and February due to the negative divergence in the charts and a multi-week downturn was set to begin, and it did. At that time, Keystone warned about the potential for the stock market to fall into a crash profile.

But utilities jumped higher during the February/March stock market selloff and Keystone took the crash off the table although a multi-week pullback remained on the table and it would be a significant drop, that it was with the SPX losing about -10% before recovering to the new all-time high at 7401.50 and new all-time closing high at 7398.93. The "SPX 7.4K" hats are passed out but there is a nasty stain on Keystone's and the stitching is already falling out. The tag says Made in China. He gave it to the Uber driver.

The stock market crash was off the table in February/March because utes were flying high. As per Norm Fosback's theory from decades ago, and modernized by Keystone, the utes will typically start down first, or move down in tandem with, the broad market, and this portends very bad things ahead and major negativity for equtities.

You want to watch the weekly closing price from 15 weeks ago, that establishes the weekly trend, and the 50-week MA at 1107 that typically serves as a trap-door for the stock market. It is remarkable that UTIL, or DJU, dropped to within 4 points of failure at 1107 on Friday and no one noticed. How could they since they were too busy buying stocks?

For next week, the week of 5/11/26, counting back 15 weeks, is the orange circle at 1091.27. Write that number on a sticky note and put it on your forehead for all five days next week. Stocks will be in trouble if UTIL loses the 1091.27 level next week. UTIL begins the week at 1112.

The set-up is not typical since the weekly trend would usually fail first, then the 50-week that opens the trap-door for the stock market but this time it is flip-flopped. If utes fail next week, the 50-week MA at 1107 will fail first and the 1091 level can be thought of as the trap-door for the broad stock market if it fails.

For the week of 5/18/26, the 1091 becomes meaningless replaced by the 1089.25 line in the sand (blue circle). For the week of 5/25/26, the shortened trading week with Monday the Memorial Day holiday and US markets closed, the 1089 will become meaningless and replaced with 1171.18 (brown circle).

Note how price stayed above the levels from last year and early this year creating the weekly uptrend in utilities and boost to the stock market. With price collapsing to 1112, we have a new ball game. It is baseball season now. Centerfield. Put me in coach. Roberto Clemente will always be Keystone's hero forever. He was a great man. Too bad young folks do not have excellent role models like that to follow anymore.

If UTIL loses 1107 next week, the stock market is in big trouble. If UTIL then loses 1091, stocks will likely be falling down the rabbit hole or will soon thereafter. Stock market bulls will be okay if they can keep the utility prices above the metrics listed. Price may be able to keep its head above the next 2 week's of 15-week lookback numbers (orange and blue circles), but starting the day after Memorial Day when stocks reopen for trading, the utes will likely slip into a weekly downtrend pattern forecasting bad things ahead for the stock market. Simply watch to see what unfolds.

Now you know how to gauge any negativity going forward. If utilities begin losing the key levels described above, the stock market is in major trouble and will go into a potential crash profile if the downside in stocks begins due to other catalysts. It is a cut and dry set-up so the die will be cast over the next 2 weeks one way or the other.

If both the 50-week MA at 1107 fails, and then the 1190-ish level over the next 2 weeks, stocks will be in major trouble going forward. It appears that it will be unavoidable but things happen like the wild orgy rally in stocks from April to the present. If you see utilities rallying next week and gaining back the losses from this past week, the fix is in and market makers plan on keeping stocks elevated for a while longer.

If utes remain sick and sink lower, be very afraid going forward. The Iran War and Strait of Hormuz mess will continue influencing stocks in the days ahead. Everyone waits for the latest dribble, er proclamations, from King Donnie Trumpski. It's more fun to spend the day with a Country Girl. Oh country girl, ya drive away the pain, oh country girl, ya make sunshine of the rain. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 5/13/26, at 6:50 PM EST: Danger Will Robinson! Danger! UTIL, or DJU, fell through its 50-wk MA at 1109 today portending bad things coming down the pike. The bulls want no part of that negativity and boost the utilities back above the critical moving average. UTIL is at 1112 with the 50-wk MA at 1109. Keep watching it closely. It is a Situation as Johnny Blue Skies and the Dark Clouds groove (Sturgill Simpson).

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Multi-Year Lows in Put/Call Ratio Signal and Verify Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness in US Stock Market

Watch your wallet going forward. The CPC is printing multi-year lows confirming the rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. The bullish euphoria is at multi-year highs as occurs during significant stock market tops. Every day is one big par-tay. Even the bears are bullish. The Uber driver, shoeshine boy, doorman, taxi cab driver, barista, and investing club ran by 80-year old women, are throwing money at the stock market with both fists. Everybody and his brother are worried they are missing out on the opportunity of a lifetime. It always ends in tears. There's a Tear in My Beer. Hank Junior and Senior.

If you are a novice long-only trader, get yourself out, take your profits, and take the summer off. Anyone long now needs to be hedging and bringing on shorts going forward.

The charts are also set up with, or in the process, of topping out with negative divergence. All the stars are aligning. The semiconductor yearnings in recent days have buoyed stocks but the obvious pumper-in-chief is King Donnie Trumpski. Equities track according to the words coming out of the orange mouth and this cheerleading with happy Iran War talk is what is keeping the stock market turd afloat in recent days.

Plan accordingly. There is a Bad Moon Rising. Urban legend says John and the CCR boys were playing a bar gig and a man in the audience stood up and looked confused. John sings "a bad moon's on the rise," but when he saw the confused man he sang, "the bathroom's on the right." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short yesterday at munch time at SPX 7198. Copper and retail stocks failed creating the negativity. Copper and the stock market are moving in sync and the red metal is recovering this morning. The banks are also in play. These three metrics dictate the path forward. Do not be surprised if the quant whipsaws since that has been par for the course this year. If copper, retail stocks and banks remain bearish or turn bearish, the stock market will be sliding down the rabbit hole.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Long-Term Top Is Placed As Stocks Print All-Time Highs

Raise your hand if you are a jackass that is long the stock market and adding to long positions. Look at that. Every trader on Wall Street raises their hand. The ghost of Irving Fisher floats above the traders proclaiming that the stock market is at a permanently high plateau above SPX 7.2K and will never go below that level ever again.

The month of May begins today and people should be yelling, "May Day! Mayday!" The United States stock market is cooked on the long-term monthly basis. That means stocks will begin dropping and that downward path will continue for many months if not a year or two, or maybe more. You must realize that these all-time highs may not be seen again for many months and perhaps many years.

If you are a young naive person, get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Otherwise, Keystone is going to take your money and send you home to tell your wife that you lost the dough that was for her anniversary present.

The bears should be happy that May starts with a matching and higher price high. That allows the chart indicators to be assessed for negative divergence to see if a top exists, or how far away it may be. The red lines show that we are sitting on the top right now due to neggie d and the picnic bench is about to break and land everyone on the ground, with the ants.

A trip back to the 20-mth MA at 6386 would be in order for starters. The 10-mth MA at 6847 is an early warning signal of pending doom. At 7.2K plus you may not be that concerned, but you will be. The key level is the 12-mth MA at 6751 that dictates a cyclical bear market. Stocks dipped their toes into this realm on the last dip but recovered with that record setting rally in April. If 6751 is lost, all hope is lost in the stock market.

The only hope bulls have would be to push the MACD line up so it is a tiny bit higher than the prior high but even that will only buy another month or two before the top is placed. Can't you understand? There is no hope going forward for the stock market on a long-term monthly basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money selling their shares to the bagholding suckers, the dumb money, over the last couple years. Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway has been trimming stocks for the last couple years. Doesn't everyone worship at his altar?

Are you ready for fun? We are at an historic top as everyone whistles past the graveyard going long with 2x and crazy 3x ETF's. If you are long the stock market, you should be girding your loins. We need some wild music to match the wild times ahead. Born to Be Wild. All of you young folks missed out on the fun, adventure, and trouble, in the 60's and 70's. The road is freedom and some of you idiots place shackles on yourselves with an electric vehicle POS. You be dumb. Get a motor underneath you and you will never be the same. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and oil moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day. Trumpski claims that he will help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz but it sounds like more hollow rhetoric. He says he wants to help countries that are 'victims of circumstance'. That is what Curly Joe of The Three Stooges would say as an excuse for his actions.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/5/26, at 7:44 AM EST: JPM says the stock market is 'not complacent'. They must be smoking dope over there.

Note Added 5/14/26: The bulls are pushing hard to try and boost the MACD line higher than the previous high to keep the party going. The May candlestick will be cast in concrete in 11 trading days. Even if the MACD increases a smidgeon, it will only extend the long-term top by a month or two. The next 2 weeks may be very exciting one way or the other. Trumpski is in China right now as the Iran War mess continues.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Uber Bullish Optimism and Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness at Stock Market Top

After Keystone has explained the topping process the last couple posts, the SPX daily chart has finally arrived at the neggie d top. The uber multi-year low CPC and CPCE put/calls signal rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market and, just like the March downdraft, traders and investors must pay for their uber bullish optimism by losing their Money.

The Aroon green line shows that every single bull in the stock market, 100%, believe that stocks will continue higher forever. Humorously, the red line down at 12% shows that nearly all the bears also believe that stocks will go up forever. The Aroon directly verifies the ridiculous positive sentiment in the put/calls.

As previously mentioned, the SPX can run a couple hundo points higher after the low put/calls and it may take a week or two to top out (unlike years ago where a top would occur days after the low put/calls). Honey, we're home.

As also previously explained, Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down, so the breach of SPX 6800 on the way up was key since it opened the door to 7200. It was a twisted path with the March swoon in the middle but it got there. Price is at 7209 so 7208 was breached so 7212 will likely print. If 7218 is tagged, 7220 is next and if 7228 is attained, that will likely lead to 7232.

The daily chart above is finally topped out with full neggie d across all indicators (red lines) so the 7220-7230 area is a logical place from which the stock market will start its down move on the daily basis. You had to wait for the SPX daily chart to top out with negative divergence and the pesky MACD line was not cooperating. The kittens are finally herded and price is topped out now with neggie d and a down move on the daily basis should begin. The only thing that can stop it would be happy talk such as the Iran War ending or the Strait of Hormuz opening or other such rosy words.

Focus on the MACD line. It is definitely sloping down as price printed another high locking in neggie d but you have to give it a day or so to make sure. The MACD line is flat as a newlywed's souffle so it would not take much for the bulls to try and jam price higher to boost the MACD a tiny bit for a matching or higher high. This would extend the top but only by a day or two. If the MACD line remains sloping down, the top is in on the daily basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The upper standard deviation band was violated so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 6976 rising sharply, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6579 rising sharply. The volume was robust yesterday. Bobby Bagholder, Savita Sucker, Freddie Fool, Carmelita Retail and Antoine Sixpack could not buy shares fast enough. The two blue circles show distribution days where the so-called smart money is dumping shares on the dumb money idiots listed above. Are you ready to hold the bag? It is fun watching the human reactions especially when they are losing their shirts.

You have been patient waiting for the top to form on the daily basis and it is now topped out with neggie d. Plan accordingly. The SPX 2-hour chart remains in neggie d, however, it is feeling the thrust from yesterday, so it may take a few hours today for the neggie d negativity to soak into everyone's bones. Plan your trading today and next week knowing that a historic Black Monday or Black Tuesday may occur next week. These set-ups have been occurring, like last week, but the happy talk has been delaying the inevitable. Of course if negative news occur, it will act as an accelerator and catalyst for the downside.

AI will likely not live up to the hype in the near-term; it is something that will need to grow and find its way over the next 4 to 8 years before companies likely see a benefit. They tell you AI is increasing productivity now, but that is because they are using it as an excuse to get rid of the dead wood, then take their tasks and dump them on the remaining employees. There's your efficiency. Make sure you tell your kid that you cannot go to their big soccer game because you are kissing the boss's arse. Is this your life? Pity you. Cats in the Cradle.

Today, May Day, is Mexico's Labor Day. How come they celebrate labor by taking a siesta? They have to rest-up for the Cinco de Mayo parties in 4 days. Since there are many cockroaches in the markets now that are starting to show themselves as the lights are turned on, it is only fitting to sing La Cucaracha. Keystone was handed a "SPX 7.2K" hat but gave it to Carmelita. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:20 AM EST: Iran War happy talk occurs so S&P futures pop +22 points as oil prices and volatility drops. It is a minor blip. Are traders getting sick of the Iran War baby games?

Note Added 6:03 PM EST: Wheee! Whooopie! Happy Days are here again. Iran War happy talk creates an orgy party for stocks. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7272.52 and new all-time closing high at 7230.12 today, Friday, 5/1/26. Price settled a big 42 points off the intraday high. That behavior is evidenced by the Shooting Star candlestick, that is not the same as the Bad Company song Shooting Star, that printed today on the daily chart. Johnny was a school boy, when he heard his first Beatles song. The bulls drove price higher out of the gate celebrating the Iran War hype but the bears spanked price down, way down to where it started, creating the shooting star. Note that the end of day SPX point gain is what it was in the S&P futures when the Iran hype news hit this morning. The shooting star typically signals a reversal. Johnny made a record, it went straight up to number one. The MACD line is a tiny hair higher due to the rally today but stick a fork in the piece of sh*t. It's cooked and has topped out or will early next week. If you did not throw longs overboard and bring on shorts today, especially after the orgy open, shame on you. Next week may be historic for the stock market and talked about for decades to come. Johnny's life passed him by, like a warm summer day, if you listen to the wind, you can still hear him play. King Donnie Trumpski needs to accept the fact that he created a mess in the Middle East and he has to open the Strait of Hormuz, period. Even if it takes the Marines going in; they know what they are doing. Donnie created the mess and has to fix it, otherwise, China may get aggressive in waterways in and around Taiwan and other Asian nations. First, fire power has to be used to clear the Strait and then, second, it will still take time because insurers will not want to step up to guarantee the cargoes unless the military opens the strait and stays in control and on guard, or if the USA acts as an insurer. There is no other solution. Perhaps Donnie starts the operation this weekend? The new moon is 5/16/26 so if the Marines go in, they need maximum cover of darkness using their superior night vision. Perhaps a window of 5/14/26 through 5/21/26 is on tap for Trumpski's so-called 'all-Hell to break out' in Iran again? King Donnie has likely not given any thought for a potential humanitarian crisis occurring in Iran due to the blockade (millions of people starving). Memorial Day is coming and The Swing Dolls are warming up back stage and ready to cheer the military for the pending Strait of Hormuz operation. It's always a great show when the audience participates.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and oil moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day. Trumpski claims that he will help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz but it sounds like more hollow rhetoric. He says he wants to help countries that are 'victims of circumstance'. That is what Curly Joe of The Three Stooges would say as an excuse for his actions.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/5/26, at 7:47 AM EST: JPM says the stock market is 'not complacent'. They must be smoking dope over there.