The SPX daily chart continues to play out with negative divergence as previously explained. She was all set to roll over starting the week of 5/11/26 but King Donnie Chumpski pumped equities with happy Iran War talk. That took the SPX up to the all-time high at 7517.12 and all-time closing high at 7473.47 on Thursday, 5/14/26.
Some of the neggie d remained, but the happy talk bolstered the MACD line to a slightly higher high (more gas was put in the tank) and wanted price to come back up once more. Price drops for three days, then recovers for 3 days to Friday's shooting star candlestick. No surprise there because Donnie poured some extra fuel into the MACD. Now, with price at matching highs, but new all-time highs were not attained on Friday, the chart indicators can be assessed again and the red lines show that all are in neggie d so the top is in again.
Humorously, the only thing that can save it from its technical fate is more happy talk like mid-month and right on cue, King Donnie, donning his paper Burger King hat that he received in a happy meal, proclaims that an agreement is reached with the Iran War. US stocks reopen for trading on Tuesday due to the holiday and the happy talk may once again delay the top by a few days. Or, it may be a sell the news event.
Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. Price has made it up and over 7.5K a couple times. Keystone received a "SPX 7.5K" hat but on the walk home a bird sh*t on it so it was thrown in the garbage. Nonetheless, a move up and over 7480 opens the door to the 7520 level. A move above 7478 opens the door to 7482. If traders buy into the Iran War happy talk, the SPX may pop to 7520-7540, even the top band again at 7565 but that should be short-lived and only serve to delay the top on the daily basis by a day or few again.
After Trumpski said there was a deal with the Iran War, it was then labeled as a framework for a deal. Oh my, the tangled web the orange head weaves. Maybe it is a framework of a potential deal that may result in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations and a secondary framework that can lay the groundwork for a possible overall deal that may...... what a bunch of dribble. Donnie screwed the pooch in Iran teaching the radical Islamist terrorist nutcases that they can control the Strait of Hormuz anytime they like. Donnie's frameworks, deals, agreements, negotiations, bloviations, belching, and BS sounds like Fauci during the COVID-19 pandemic thinking, considering, the idea of pondering the thought of ..... as parodied by Tyler Fischer.
If SPX price runs higher on happy Iran War talk, simply watch the red lines for the indicators to see if any of them overtake the prior highs to negate the neggie d. If not, the neggie d remains and a spankdown of stocks will begin on the daily basis. If so, the top will only be delayed by a few days until neggie d is shown across all indicators again.
The Friday candlestick is a shooting star. Johnny was a schoolboy, when he heard his first Beatles song, don't you know that you are a shooting star? Don't, don't you know? The shooting star typically indicates that a reversal is on tap. Shooting Star by Bad Company.
The SPX is showing a double top or M top pattern. The orange circles show some of the gaps that will need filled on the way down. That gap at 6600-6740 is big enough to drive a bus through it. That gap higher in early April places the S&P 500 on an island above 6740. When price comes back down to Earth going forward, price may fill that gap, or, price may come down to 6740, and then gap back down through that gap to 6600 creating an island reversal pattern but this is for another day.
The ADX shows that the last strong trend was on the downside and it ended in early April. Despite the all-time record highs, the ADX says the upside is NOT a strong trend higher. In fact the ADX is even showing negative divergence as price prints the matching highs. The Aroon green line shows that nearly all the bulls remain firmly bullish on stocks and expect more new highs and the red line shows that nearly all the bears also think the stock market will go up forever. The rampant complacency, fearlessness and bullish euphoria is also verified by the low put/calls.
The last three up days show volume trailing off. Not only that, the volumes are below the prior three selling volume days, and volume is not exceeding the volume on the all-time record day. Some traders say 'volume is validity' and if this is true, a lot more bulls better show up with fistfuls of money on Tuesday.
The daily chart is toast, resetting after the Donnie Iran War hype stick-saved the downside, but it only served to delay the top. If more Donnie hype occurs over the next couple days, that could delay the top by a few days again, otherwise, it would be a sell the news event and allow the neggie d to kick in the downside with force.
Celebrate Memorial Day. Taps. There are jackasses in America that espouse the 'white privilege' garbage. Look at all those white tombstones that go on forever in all directions at Arlington. There's your white privilege, you b*stards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/27/26, at 6:15 AM EST: The bulls create new stock market highs as chips continue rallying and Donnie Chump keeps talking about a rosy end to his Iran War. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7539.09 and new all-time closing high at 7519.12 on Tuesday, 5/26/26. Since a matching or higher price high occurs, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d and negative divergence remains in place forecasting a top in the daily basis and a multi-day drop should begin. Donnie needs to increase the happy talk to create another stick-save. Another shooting star candlestick prints yesterday. The SPX 2-hour chart is in negative divergence agreeing with the daily chart that a technical near-term top is now. S&P futures, however, are up +25 points painting a happy picture for today. The short term charts want a pullback but the King Donnie Chumpski happy talk and the ongoing chip frenzy staves off the bears. Something should break today. The investment banks continue raising their SPX targets above 8K. The ghost of Irving Fisher hovers above Wall Street proclaiming that stocks are at a permanently-high plateau and will never drop below SPX 7.5K ever again. The party continues, the girls are dancing, and the music plays on. What Is Love by Haddaway.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 5/27/26, at 6:00 PM EST: The trading session is up, down, down up, just like the blues master Jimmy Reed tune, Baby What You Want Me to Do. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The SPX finishes with a new all-time closing high at 7520.36, satisfying Keystone's 80/20 Rule, but yesterday's all-time record high at 7539.09 remains in place. A hanging man candlestick prints today typically signaling that a bearish reversal should start, just like the shooting stars for the last two days. The bullish momo is fading. The Hangman's Song. The SPX daily and 2-hour charts are cooked with neggie d so downside is expected going forward, unless King Donnie Chumpski can come up with some happy talk overnight. Conversely, if negative news hits the tape overnight, that will kick-in the negative divergence with vengeance. Watch the MACD on the SPX monthly chart as previously posted. There are only 2 trading days remaining in May and the bulls are trying to squeeze out a slightly higher MACD line to extend the long-term stock market top (for months and years ahead) for a month or two. At the end of April, the SPX monthly chart was in negative divergence calling for the long-term top and multi-months, maybe a couple years and more, of downside to begin. It is odd and not expected to see the following month, now, May, come up again, but it has on the chip frenzy and Donnie happy talk. There is a lot riding on the next 2 days. The MACD line on the monthly is a hair higher than the prior nosebleed high right now but remember, it is a work in progress and not cast in concrete until Friday at 4 PM EST. Bears need the MACD to continue showing neggie d to call the top, like a month ago, and allow the multi-month spankdown to begin. Otherwise, the slightly higher MACD line will likely create a down month for June, but back up in July when the MACD will go neggie d again calling the long-term top. This is atypicay behavior so you just roll along with what you got. The next 2 days may be dramatic. The bulls want to hang on to what they got. Let's Hang On. In the 70's, you could not turn on the AM radio without hearing Frankie Valli and The Four Seasons.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/29/26, at 5:57 AM EST: Today is the last trading day of May that is a big up month gaining +5% depending on today's outcome. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7568.72 and new all-time closing high at 7563.63 yesterday, 5/28/26. The month had a dip in the middle but has been mainly up all the way. Typically, when a month is up strongly, the last few days will tend to be weak. For May it is up and away with record highs so it will be interesting to see if today is down simply due to exhaustion. S&P futures are up +10 points a tame follow-through considering Donnie's stick-save yesterday with the US and Iran saying a deal is at hand, er, a framework of a deal that may potentially, possibly, perhaps lead to a future deal. The WTIC crude oil level of 88-92 is interesting and the pivot from this range will impact stocks (oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up). The so-called US-Iran deal may be a sell the news event. Iran is now saying the text of the deal is not finalized. Well, that does not sound like a deal if nothing is written on paper. The daily and 2-hour charts remain negatively diverged wanting a top to occur now but King Donnie Chumpski knows how to string it along and create buoyant bumps of happiness with well chosen Iran War sound bites. The market makers may want to keep the party going through today so the MACD prints a higher high on the May monthly chart that MAY extend THE long-term top by a few weeks (they hope; it may not since the MACD is at nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down). You are watching a major historical top occur in real-time. How cool is that? The Keybot the Quant robot remains long so it will be interesting to see when the quant flips short. Retail stocks were sick creating negativity until yearnings this week and now they are rallying bigtime creating market joy. However, the stock market is flirting with disaster, like dealing with those Brooklyn girls, some are the thorns without the rose, be careful of them in the dark, as Tom Waits sings Downtown Train, if the utilities fail. If DJU, or UTIL, drops below 1112, there will be Hell to pay. Price begins at 1116 only 4 bucks away from a trap-door opening for the stock market. Ditto the banksters. Retail stocks may have popped but the banks may be rolling over and dying. If XLF loses 51.27, exactly where it closed at yesterday, that spells trouble ahead for the stock market. Price closed at the exact 51.27 price the robot called out ahead of time. In the premarket, XLF is up a smidge to 51.34. The bulls are sweating, despite the record highs, and know what they have to do to keep the charade going. Watch to see if utes and banks are pumped today, that means a happy finish to May into the weekend, but a bad day for both likely nails the stock market top in the near-term. Of course, Donnie's Iran War remains in the mix.
Note Added Saturday, 5/30/26: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7599.38, almost 7.6K, and new all-time closing high at 7580.06. The intraday reversal was caused by the utilities failing. DJU, or UTIL, falls though the critical 1112 a very bad omen going forward. Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The put/call ratios drop to lower multi-year lows flashing lights and sounding sirens that traders and investors are far too complacent, fearless, and euphorically bullish. The tech Kool-Aid is tasty like the lips of a beautiful woman. The last four of five candlesticks on the daily chart are two shooting starts, a hangman and a doji all reversal signals. The SPX monthly chart does squeeze out the tiniest higher high on the MACD (nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down) so the bulls are trying to extend the top with all their might, but they will fail going forward. The near term top is at hand right now and the long-term top (for the coming months and perhaps years forward) is either right now, or will be within a few short days or weeks due to the MACD on the monthly. WTIC crude oil sits at 88 in the 88-92 range awaiting more bloviations and rhetoric from King Donnie Chump, the conflicted so-called deal maker and grifter-in-chief. Get out of the stock market and save yourself, folks. There is not much more time remaining. Maybe a Black Monday? That would be fun.
Note Added 6/5/26 at 6:35 PM EST: It is a mini Black Friday. The SPX collapses to 7384.
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