Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, finally flips long at SPX 7728 after 2 months of choppy stock market slop. Oil drops so stocks rock and the orgy party in semi's today sends equities to the moon. However, nothing has changed. Bulls need stronger banks to prove they got game. Bears need weaker chips and copper and higher volatility.

Keybot the Quant

Copper Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Tight Bands Forecast Big Move Coming

Copper is the red metal, or the other yellow metal if you prefer, and has experienced a record multi-year upside rally on the AI, data center, and all things chips and electronics hype. Copper was always an indicator for the housing and automobile industries since these were the two biggest users of copper. The indoor plumbing is copper and the car wiring, electronics and other parts, such as the starter motors, are copper.

But in recent years, technology rules the roost and with the AI hype, copper has found a new sugar daddy. Copper is now an indicator for the health of the artificial intelligence sector. Homes are now fitted with non-copper pipes. The slow rise of EV's (glorified golf carts) are big users of copper so the adoption, or shunning, of electric vehicles will impact copper prices. Copper is also subjected to global weather events and civil unrest and riots. Copper shines riding the AI wave.

But will the wave crash? The rising wedge pattern is ominous as price works up into the apex with nowhere left to go. The collapses from the bearish rising wedge can be quite dramatic. Two weeks ago, price received the initial neggie d spankdown slap but last week, after price touched the bottom of the wedge it bounced, on more AI hype, and price ran higher to the top rail of the wedge.

The red lines clearly show the negative divergence in play across all chart indicators. Copper is out of gas without any fuel remaining in the tank. Not even any fumes.  The expectation is for copper to begin a multi-week neggie d spankdown.

The standard deviation bands are squeezing in to multi-year tightness (purple arrows). A huge move is on deck for copper, on the weekly basis. Tight bands forecast a big move on tap but do not predict direction. The chart is bearish so down is the expected path forward but Emperor Jensen or Lord Dario may provide happy AI talk that gives the red metal another boost. The chart is toast, on the weekly basis, so happy news is all that can save it now. The copper monthly chart remains long and strong so price should receive the smack down from now say through much of October and then likely recover into year end.

October is at our doorstep. Interesting. The month known for crashes. September is usually a lousy month for stocks but the notable crashes occurred in October. Watch your wallet.

The US housing market has slipped into a double-dip recession so copper pipes and fittings are collecting dust at the plumbing supply company. EV's have lost some of the luster. Buy one of those electric golf carts and you buy a job plugging it in and out, looking for charging stations, and the rest of it. What idiot buys an EV when a gas station is on every corner? With housing slumping, and the auto business sluggish since common folks do not have any money, AI is carrying copper on its back and its spindly legs are starting to give-way.

Copper is set to take a multi-week slide lower unless the AI tech bros can save the day with more hype. Forget the tech bros and instead go with the Blues Brothers. Live, from Calumet, Illinois, give it up for the Blues Bros. Dan Aykroyd's fat old arse could not dance like that now if his life depended on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: Dr Copper is shot-up with more morphine and continues dancing a jig of joy. Price pops this week up to the top rail at 6.83 again piercing the upper band as the standard deviation bands continue pulling-in tight. A big move is coming and the weekly chart remains in neggie d saying down is ahead for a few weeks. Tell that to the price. Copper is spanked down from the 6.83 trading at 6.66. Trip 6's.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Crash -12% into a Correction Over the Last 8 Weeks

Keystone has warned several times about the failing utilities. When utes lead the broad market lower, it is a bad omen for nasty things coming. No one cares because they are too busy buying stocks with both fists.

UTIL, or DJU, collapses from 1183 to 1042, a drop of 141 points, or -12%, into a correction, losing -1-1/2% per week for the last 2 months, but no one notices.

Plan accordingly. Pretty and talented Ella Langley is receiving lots of attention these days, especially from men. Choosin' Texas. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 9/21/26: UTIL crashes to 1035 but no one cares since they are too busy buying stocks because oil prices are falling and chips rallying.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: UTIL crashes to 1015. Wow! Utilities have crashed -14% in only 2 months. Prepare the bunker.

UST30Y 30-Year US Treasury Bond Yield Weekly Chart; Tweezer Top; Overbot (Yield); Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

Those expecting big upside in Treasury yields will be disappointed at least with the current status of the charts. Of course news can change things suddenly and the BOJ is now on a rate hiking cycle creating market angst. The US 30-year yield runs higher (bonds are sold off) to 5.40% and the candlesticks form a Tweezer Top (blue circle). Ideally, the upper shadows should be a bit longer but it is close enough for government work.

The red lines show the rising wedge pattern that is bearish for the chart. The red lines for the chart indicators show that as yield makes a matching and higher high, the indicators are all sloping lower in negative divergence. There is no more fuel in the tank to take the 30-year yield higher on the weekly basis. Watch the MACD line since it may try to sneak out a few days more or week or so of buoyancy but the MACD is clearly neggie d over the last 2 years and would be agreeable to falling apart now.

Bond traders yell, "Blasphemy!" Many traders expect the Treasury yields to move higher not lower. The 30-year yield tagged the upper band so the middle band, the 20-wk MA at 5.11%, is on the table as the multi-week neggie d spankdown begins. Yield may adjust lower over the coming weeks and play around in that 5.00% to 5.20% range.

The weekly yield charts for 2's, 5's and 10's are similar but the MACD lines still have oomph for higher yields to occur in these shorter duration yields. It will be nothing extended a long time; only a couple weeks or so when all the indicators on these weekly charts will be neggie d and begin a multi-week drawdown for these yields. You can call those tops when they occur using the above chart as an example.

The interesting takeaway is that the 30-year yield will lead the way lower going forward as the neggie d spankdown on the weekly basis takes hold. The 2's, 5's and 10's will follow lower on the weekly basis after they top out over the next couple weeks or so.

Currently, stocks go down when oil goes up, yields go up and the dollar goes up. The reverse is also in play. Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot that is why Keystone was disinvited to the Autumn Equinox celebration at the VFW on Tuesday, stocks are sold off and notes and bonds are sold off (yields up) at the same time. Stocks are bot and notes and bonds are bot (sending yields lower) at the same time, like today.

If the chart above says yields are topping out on a weekly basis technical-wise, one would think that stocks would be bot along with Treasuries that are bot sending yields lower. Au contraire, Pierre. Keystone has a friend named Pierre since youth. His parents owned a bar in town. They had nothing to do with France and were not French. His parents simply liked the name Pierre. Unfortunately, he said every time he met someone, within a few minutes, they would ask, "are you French?"

A historic stock market top is in play currently. Remember, the MACD line on the SPX monthly chart tells us if the top is in and this month's chart will be cast in concrete in 9 trading days.

Thus, it is highly likely that the stock market will puke going forward. Stocks will be sold off and some of that money will go into Treasuries for perceived safety and that will send yields lower (stocks will be sold and Treasuries bot not like the current behavior). Keystone is not playing Treasury derivatives now long or short. Keep your wits about you going forward. About a Girl by Kurt and Nirvana. The 1990's Grunge scene. Nirvana's Nevermind album put a stake through the heart of the 1980's hair band era. Great times until Kurt blew his brains out. Dave Grohl the drummer went on to play guitar and be the frontman of the Foo Fighters. Bassist Krist Novoselic was a politician for a while and after that leads a low-key life. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: The US yields are; 2-year 4.74%, 5-year 4.86%, 10-year 5.00% and 30-year 5.33%. The 2-10 spread is 26 bips. The 10-year breached the 5% mark that will make Secretary Bessent talk more nervously, if that is possible. Global rates head higher hinting as a structural change to the worldwide note and bond market.

Note Added Monday, 9/21/26: The US yields are; 2-year 4.75%, 5-year 4.83%, 10-year 4.95% and 30-year 5.28%. The 2-10 spread is 20 bips.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26, at 4:34 AM EST: A big bond selloff occurs (chart above moves higher) after strong manufacturing data, higher oil prices and a weak 5-year auction ignite inflation fears. The 10-year yield hits decades-high levels. The 30-year yield is the highest since 2004. The US yields are; 2-year 4.90%, 5-year 5.02%, 10-year 5.14% and 30-year 5.43%. The 2-10 spread is 24 bips. The charts have not changed so give it a few days and see how it levels out.

Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text and Charts Books Now Available Via Amazon

The Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text and Coronavirus Chronology Charts are now available on Amazon. These are the fifth and sixth books in the Coronavirus Chronology series that is the official historical record of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amazon link.

The Coronavirus Chronology Volumes 1 to 3 with 1000 Charts are the daily real-time record of everything that happened with the COVID-19 pandemic from 2019 through February 2023 when the pandemic ended and the covid endemic phase started (COVID-19 now behaves like the regular flu). It is not revisionist history like the other covid books.

K E Stone, Keystone, wrote 103 articles and provided 1000 charts during the COVID-19 pandemic. The articles were spaced at 10-day intervals and each article included charts. Books 1 through 3.

The Coronavirus Chronology Aftermath continues to chronicle the daily covid drama during the endemic phase from February 2023 through July 2025. Book 4.

The Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text is the condensed text from the first three volumes for a quicker more streamlined read. The 1000 charts and detailed descriptions for each chart are not included in the abridged text. Book 5.

The Coronavirus Chronology Charts is the compilation of the 1000 COVID-19 charts not including their detailed descriptions that appear in the first three volumes. The 103 article titles are included that provide details on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic at any point in time. The charts are self-explanatory with notations. Book 6.

The Coronavirus Chronology Conclusions and Recommendations is in editing currently and will be published in a few weeks. This will be Book 7 and the final book in the Coronavirus Chronology series.

If you are a scientist, doctor, nurse, data analyst, researcher, etc..., you will want the three-volume set since it provides the most in depth and complete picture of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the China Virus bible and historical daily record of the heinous pandemic.

The Coronavirus Chronology was written in real-time each day of the pandemic and is not massaged history from the past. It is the down and dirty facts and timeline of the global pandemic without allegiance to either corrupt US political party. The COVID-19 pandemic was a mix of medical science and political science with plenty of misinformation and disinformation spewed by the people in charge (Trump, Fauci, Biden, Collins, Walensky, Jha, etc...).

If you want an easier read that provides the big overview of the pandemic with plenty of detail on the most important events and news, read the abridged text version.

If you are a scientist or medical person, the charts book provides a quick and easy reference of the global and US covid hotspots at any time during the pandemic.

One of the reasons people are goofy nowadays is that many have never come to grips with how their lives changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. We all lost loved ones and it is not the easiest thing to look back on especially if the person was very close to you.

The Coronavirus Chronology will heal your soul since you can go back and relive that period of time to get it all out of your system. Too many people have bottled-up anxieties, nervousness, and odd behavior as a result of the pandemic. It is the hope of the Coronavirus Chronology that reliving that period of time will help you heal.

Below is the TOC for the Coronavirus Chronology Abridged Text available from Amazon.

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY ABRIDGED TEXT 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY ABRIDGED TEXT

ABOUT K E STONE (KEYSTONE)

COVID-19 PANDEMIC OVERVIEW

READING GUIDE

CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY ABRIDGED TEXT

2019 SEPTEMBER; Nefarious Activity at Wuhan Institute of Virology in China

2019 OCTOBER; Gates Foundation “Event 201” Simulates a Global Coronavirus Outbreak

2019 NOVEMBER; First Coronavirus Illness in China

2019 DECEMBER; Chinese Doctors Muzzled by CCP

2020 JANUARY; Coronavirus Identified in United States

2020 FEBRUARY; WHO Names Coronavirus ‘COVID-19’; Fear of a Pandemic Escalates Worldwide

2020 MARCH; US and Worldwide Wave 1; Who Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic; Covid Infections Increasing Exponentially; 200K Cases in America 4.3K Dead

2020 APRIL; 250K Dead Worldwide; 50K Americans Dead

2020 MAY; Over 1.8 Million US Cases 100K Dead; US Unemployment Rate 14.7%; ‘#China Lied People Died’

2020 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 2; 10 Million Cases Worldwide 500K Dead; 3 Million Cases in America 130K Dead; New York Governor Cuomo Nursing Home Scandal

2020 JULY; Pandemic Turns Political; 800K Dead Worldwide; 150K Americans Dead

2020 AUGUST; One American Dies Every Minute; Rules Touted for Masks and Social Distancing; Telemedicine Flourishes; 970K Dead Worldwide; 195K Americans Dead

2020 SEPTEMBER; US and Worldwide Wave 3; Trump Admits to Lying About Pandemic to Avoid Creating Panic; 1 Million Dead Worldwide; 220K Americans Dead

2020 OCTOBER; Trump Hospitalized and Recovers; Trump Says ‘Learn to Live with It’; Biden Says ‘We’re Learning to Die with It’; US Exceeds 100K Cases Per Day; 1.3 Million Dead Worldwide; 240K Americans Dead

2020 NOVEMBER; One American Dies Every 30 Seconds; Trump Loses Election to Biden but Will Not Concede; US Exceeds 200K Cases Per Day; 60 Million Cases Worldwide

2020 DECEMBER; Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA Vaccinations Begin; Over 80 Million Cases Worldwide 1.9 Million Dead; Over 20 Million US Cases 380K Dead

2021 JANUARY; COVID-19 Culling the Elderly; 100 Million Cases Worldwide 2 Million Dead; 480K Americans Dead

2021 FEBRUARY; Worldwide Wave 4; 2.5 Million Dead Worldwide; 520K Americans Dead

2021 MARCH; US Wave 4; Vaccine Inequality; Blood Clots; COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Messaging Changes to ‘Preventing Hospitalization and Death’

2021 APRIL; 100 Million Americans Vaccinated; Breakthrough Cases; Pfizer Says Third Shot Needed; 3 Million Dead Worldwide; India Outbreak (Delta)

2021 MAY; Myocarditis Cases Increase; Monoclonal Antibodies (mAb) Successful Treatment; Fauci Questioned About Funding Gain of Function Research at Wuhan Labs; 3.7 Million Dead Worldwide; 600K Americans Dead

2021 JUNE; US and Worldwide Wave 5 (Delta); WHO Names Variants with Greek Letters; Fauci is ‘Mr Science’

2021 JULY; “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated”; Vaccine Mandates; Censorship; 80% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Overweight and Obese; 4 Million Dead Worldwide

2021 AUGUST; Vaccinated People Spreading Virus; FDA Officials Resign Protesting Rushed Booster Shots; 4.6 Million Dead Worldwide; 670K Americans Dead

2021 SEPTEMBER; Biden 6-Point Plan; Biden Blames Pandemic and Flailing Economy on Unvaccinated; 700K Americans Dead More Than 1918 Spanish Flu

2021 OCTOBER; UA and Worldwide Wave 6 (Omicron); Waning Vaccine Effectiveness; Vaccinated Versus Unvaccinated; Testosterone May Play Role in Myocarditis; ‘Disease X’; 250 Million Cases Worldwide 5 Million Dead

2021 NOVEMBER; Biden is Incompetent at Handling Pandemic Like Trump; Biden Approval Rating Plummets; 50 Million US Cases 820K Dead

2021 DECEMBER; Pfizer’s Paxlovid Pill Approved; 80% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; Breakthrough Cases Escalate; US Life Expectancy Drops from 79 to 77; UK “Partygate”; 5.5 Million Dead Worldwide

2022 JANUARY; One American Dies Every Minute; Omicron Cases Peak in US; “Flurona”; “Twindemic”; Trucker’s “Freedom Convoy”; 77 Million US Cases 930K Dead

2022 FEBRUARY; US Wave 6 “Inverted V” or “Ice Pick” Chart Pattern Ending; Russia Invades Ukraine

2022 MARCH; US Wave 7a and Worldwide Wave 7; “Deltacron”; US Vaccination Rate Plummets; China Virus Kills 6 Million Worldwide and 1 Million Americans

2022 APRIL; Omicron Subvariants; Gridiron Dinner Superspreader Event; Denmark Ends COVID-19 Vaccination Program; 500 Million Cases Worldwide 6.3 Million Dead; 80 Million US Cases 1 Million Dead

2022 MAY; Worldwide Wave 8; Breakthrough Cases Galore; One-Half of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; China in Lockdown Killing Pets as Zero-Covid Strategy Fails; North Korea Outbreak; “Pandemic Treaty”

2022 JUNE; US Wave 7b and Worldwide Wave 9; Global Cases Drop Below 500K Per Day; US Covid Deaths Drop Below 200 Per Day

2022 JULY; Pharmacists Prescribe Paxlovid; Biden Sick with COVID-19 Again and Experiences Paxlovid Rebound; Global Cases Pop Above 1 Million Per Day with 2K Deaths Per Day

2022 AUGUST; Natural Immunity Better than 2 Vaccine Doses; Censorship of COVID-19 Information; Fauci Resigns; 600 Million Cases Worldwide 6.5 Million Dead

2022 SEPTEMBER; 85% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Seniors Over 65 Years Old; Biden Stupidly Proclaims the ‘Pandemic is Over’; Global Cases Drop Below 400K Per Day with 1.3K Deaths Per Day

2022 OCTOBER; US Wave 8; Biden’s COVID-19 Deaths at 662K Are 1-1/2 Times Trump’s 441K Deaths; Fauci’s Net Worth Increases by $5 Million to $13 Million Total During Pandemic; “Tripledemic”

2022 NOVEMBER; Worldwide Wave 10; 60% of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Vaccinated; “Pandemic of the Vaccinated”; Fauci Questioned Under Oath About the Origins of COVID-19 but “Cannot Recall”; 100 Million US Cases 1.1 Million Dead

2022 DECEMBER; 90%of US COVID-19 Deaths Are Seniors Over 65 Years Old and 15% Are Nursing Home Residents; “Pandemic of the Elderly”; “Scrabble Variants”; “Died Suddenly” Documentary; US Vaccination Rate Drops

2023 JANUARY; Fauci Finally Retires; Pfizer Executive Taped Saying Covid Vaccines Are “Cash Cows”; Global Cases Drop Below 150K Per Day; COVID-19 Transitioning from Pandemic to Endemic Phase

2023 FEBRUARY; COVID-19 Pandemic Ends and Endemic Phase Begins; Coronavirus Chronology Attacked by Censorship Again; Global Cases Drop Below 100K Per Day; 680 Million Cases Worldwide 6.8 Million Dead; 105 Million US Cases 1.16 Million Dead; One in Every 300 Americans Died from Covid During Pandemic

AAPL Apple Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing for Another Top

Apple is the latest favorite flavor. Traders circulate through the tech flavors and then circle back again. Lay down a dollar or two, and go around the bend, then come back again, for that good ole Mountain Dew. AAPL jumps +4% last week on the hype over the new foldable iPhone Duo, under development for a few years, announced by new Apple CEO John Ternusaround.

Samsung said Apple is warming their leftovers since their foldable phone has been out about 7 years. The iPhone Duo device uses a Samsung screen so they can be blamed if there is a problem with the crease. Samsung is in their 8th generation of the foldable technology telling Apple to hold my beer.

Instead of Duo they should call it Do Over. The phone may be awkward for someone with small or tiny hands like Donnie Trump. If the Duo was in Keystone's pocket, that crease and folding hinge may fill up with pocket lint, dirt and dust, pine needles, straw and hay. Do you folks really need all this fancy garbage? Good luck to you. The Dud, er Duo, is a weird name to say out loud, 'do-oh'. A duo is two, or a pair, but the phone is just a foldable screen. Fire the idiot that came up with that name. Oh, it was Tim Cook.

Since the Duo is warmed over pizza from the day before, some Apple enthusiasts may want to wait for the next version. Never buy the new model of anything. For new car designs and models, buy the third model year since the problems and kinks are worked out during the first couple years.

It is interesting that so many of you hold on to a smartphone like your adult umbilical cord. What nonsense. No wonder most people are squirrelly these days. Many of you think you are more important than you really are. As layoffs continue going forward, and your boss dropkicks you into the dumpster at the end of the parking lot, you will realize that you are not important at all.

Keystone explained the AAPL top on the weekly basis at the end of July due to the negative divergence. Price made matching and/or higher highs while the chart indicators went neggie d. The pullback occurs as forecasted but only ran for a couple weeks due to more hype about the Duo and the ongoing AI hype. Price did not even touch the middle band on the dip.

So up she goes again on the Duo hype and price is making the matching high so the indicators can be assessed. All are in neggie d so this is another top that will begin a multi-week slide for AAPL and this time it will likely be a few more weeks than a couple. Price may want to tag the upper band at 338-343 early in the week that would be great because it will firmly display the neggie d and top.

Simply watch the indicators to make sure they remain neggie d and you know the top is in on the weekly basis. On the daily chart, price came up to fill the gap at 334-337 so there may be further play here for a couple days. The 2-hour chart appears to have topped out with neggie d at the tail end of the week, now, so look for follow through to the downside tomorrow.

Keystone is not in AAPL right now long or short but obviously the play forward is to take your money and cash out if long, or go short going forward for a few weeks. Apple should have called the foldable phone "Dio" in honor of Ronnie James Dio. Rainbow in the Dark. What a voice; one of the best in rock history. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: AAPL remains buoyant at 336 with a high last week at 338 trying to touch the top band at 340 as explained above. Price is clearly at a higher high and all the chart indicators are neggie d on the weekly basis so a multi-week spankdown is on tap going forward. Apple had an event on Friday with CEO John Ternusaround greeting sycophant customers at a store. Those events do not have the pizazz from years gone by. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: Wheeee! Whoopie! The Apple party continues but when you bite into the candy apple, it is rotten. AAPL pops higher this week to 345.34 a new record high, but it was short-lived, with price now at 337. The pop in price tagged the upper band so the middle band at 313 and rising is on the table. With the new price high, ALL the chart indicators in the weekly timeframe are neggie d forecasting a multi-week top right now. Ditto the daily chart. AAPL should begin trending lower for the next few weeks but tell that to the price.

ORCL Oracle 5-Minute Chart; Oracle Crashes -10% Intraday

The oracle is telling a sad story. The Oracle of Delphi, Pythia, was probably breathing in natty gas; she was an ancient huffer.  The Oracle above released earnings Thursday night and confetti was flying. Did you hear folks? AI is the best invention since sliced bread. Are you caught up in the hype?

ORCL flies +8% higher to 166 at the Friday open. Joe Retail, Savita Sucka, Bonita Bagholder and Sammy Sixpack were buying with both fists on the happy earnings report. The institutional money was all too glad to unload the shares on the bagholding suckers. After the first couple minutes, the joy turns to sorrow then to panic.

Oracle drops faster than a prom dress at midnight and then trails lower to 150 a near -10% intraday crash (in only 6-1/2 hours). Bonita and Savita complain that they are the bagholdin' sucka's. The oracle could not even predict such a faceplant after the confetti party. Everyone is Hardwired to be bullish these days addicted to the AI hype. Not too many folks have heard Stephen Wilson Jr. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: Oracle is at 147.61 sitting on the 20-day MA at 149.41. The 50-day MA is at 141.00. Oracle bulls win big above 149.41 and especially if the 200-day MA is taken out at 165.47. Bears win big if price slips below 149.41 and then if it loses 141.

BLS Inflation and GTX Commodities Index (Goods Inflation) Charts Tracking in Lock-Step Until the US Mid-Term Election Season

The BLS inflation chart matches the GTX commodities chart, a reflection on goods inflation, lock-step, well, until the last 4 months. Something is fishy (light blue box). Keystone smells a rat but there is so many of them it is hard to tell them apart. It is the election silly season so the republocrats and demopublicans are playing their typical corrupt baby games.

The Bidenflation during the COVID-19 pandemic was horrible but prices came back down to stabilize sideways remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of +2% inflation per year. Common folks can handle +2% a year but anything higher causes family budgets to tighten.

Sleepy Joe Biden, the dementia-ridden Alzheimer's patient, was sent packing when King Donnie Chumpski was elected in November 2024. The orange head takes office in January 2025 with inflation data remaining in a sideways posture. Inflation clearly bumps higher due to Trumpski's tariff policies but then moderates. The killer is the Iran War that King Donnie alone decreed. Donnie's war against Iran boosted inflation that never looked back.

You can see the great correlation between the GTX index and the BLS inflation numbers. Trump's war sends oil prices higher screwing common Americans already experiencing an affordability crisis. Donnie promised to lower prices from day one but it was just another campaign lie like stopping the Ukraine War in 24 hours and releasing all the Epstein files. Trumpski's latest false promise is to hand everyone a $5,000 dollar check but only if they vote for republicans. Bribery is cool again in 2026.

The Iran War mess continues and Donnie admits that he is in a holding pattern for the mid-term elections (making decisions based on politics rather than doing what is right to rectify the situation in the Middle East). He is golfing in Ireland today. People forgot about how incompetent Trump was at handling the COVID-19 pandemic stupidly shutting down the entire US economy and schools. Then saying the covid pandemic was almost over and "rounding the corner" for six months until he got COVID-19 and almost died. That is the key reason he was voted from office; incompetence at handling the pandemic. Fast forward to 2026 and you have the same inept manager now involved in a planetary war of his choosing. Good luck.

The GTX chart and BLS inflation chart move in lock-step after the Iran War begins. Oil prices jump higher impacting gasoline prices at the pump as well as the movement of all goods and services. Inflation, now dubbed Trumpflation, juts higher with oil prices. Then King Donnie proclaims that the Iran War will end and ceasefire and peace negotiations are underway (with radical terrorists that everyone knows, except the orange-headed idiot, will not honor any agreement). Oil prices plummet on the Iran War happy talk with WTIC crude dropping to 67 but then the MOU (memo of understanding) agreed to with murderers and terrorists falls apart as everyone expected except Chump. Oil prices jump higher again during July, August and September, and over one hundo per barrel the last couple days.

However, look at the inflation chart. The last 3 readings are +3.5%, +3.4% and +3.4%. Flat and you can say with an ever so slight downward bias. Huh? Come on now. Who's fudging the numbers in the backroom at the BLS? Come on, come clean about your nefarious deeds playing games with the numbers. It smells a lot like the data is kept benign ahead of the election (to not destroy republican hopes) and then magically after the election revisions will occur showing inflation far higher.

This will not be surprising since America is a faux free market crony capitalism system. Capitalism does not exist. If you finally face the truth, everything will make a lot more sense to you. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business textbooks and not in practice because of human greed (corruption) and non-transparency. It is easy to understand. Vote "none of the above" for the election.

The commodities in the GTX index are listed on the chart with everything headed higher even though the BLS says inflation is in a flat to downside bias. What are they smoking? Keystone was at the Westmoreland County Fair in Pennsylvania recently viewing the livestock. There are so many magnificent animals. When will we know the truth behind the blue boxes? The Animals. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: The GTX is at 6227 after printing a high at 6376 last Tuesday. Americans are getting pummeled by gasoline and food prices but King Donnie says it is no big deal because they are rising "only a little bit." Spoken by an orange-headed rich kid that was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Out of touch Trumpski just like Biden.

UTIL or DJU Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Death Cross

The utes print a death cross with the 50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA. If the death cross remains in play, it forecasts worse times ahead. Typically, after a stock or index creates a death cross it will actually bounce. It takes many weeks for a ticker to roll over so once the death cross occurs, it is time for a relief rally.

As price rallies, that is the judgement going forward depending on if it rolls over to the downside after the relief rally remaining in the death cross, or, if it can negate the death cross and save the day with a golden cross.

It is a very bad omen for utilities to lead the stock market lower. It typically means the pullback in the stock market will not be a run of the mill selloff instead it will be a significant double-digit drop perhaps even a crash. Keep a hairy eyeball on the utilities going forward. Beady Eye. The more you have, the more you can lose. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: UTIL 1069. It is time to gird your loins.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Island Reversal; Traders Await Inflation Data on Friday Morning 9/11/26

Stocks take the pipe the last 4 days with a couple gap-down moves. Today a gap-down occurs from 7635-ish down to 7600 back down through the gap-up at the start of August that created the green island. The island has mountains and valleys and even a coconut tree but the bulls jump off the island creating the island reversal pattern.

Price makes the lower low so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential positive divergence. The stochastics are possie d and oversold agreeable to a bounce. Ditto the money flow that is flat but good enough for possie d. The RSI, MACD and histogram, however, remain weak and bleak wanting to see more lower lows in price going forward on the daily basis.

However, the hyped up inflation data at 8:30 AM EST rules the roost and held back stocks from dropping like rocks since major metrics gave way today (volatility, chips, copper and banks although the banks recovered in the final minutes).

Price tags the lower band so it is open to moving higher to the middle band, that is the 20-day MA at 7692. This would seal up the two gaps left behind over the last two days and would actually be advantageous for bears to button everything up at the top as they move lower.

Donnie Chump's Iran War is a mess with WTIC oil running above 104 a short time ago. Trumpski is yucking it up, joking around, and seeking adoration, at a campaign rally this evening while Americans are raped at the gasoline pump and grocery store. He is a rich guy that has not been in a grocery store in 30 years. The idiot orange head does not know what he is doing, had and has no plan with his Iran War, and states a while ago that he is making military decisions based on the mid-term elections. At least he admits to his ineptness.

The orange-headed idiot is bribing Americans to vote republican, if so, he will provide a $5K check. It is hilarious. Paying people to vote a certain way is illegal. With his corporate takeovers and now easy money stimulus, King Donnie is King Socialist. He is a real estate guy that worships debt. Trumpski practices socialism and at the same time denigrates socialism. All you can do is mock it. You are watching the final throes of crony capitalism filth, why would you want to save this pig slop?

The inflation data will probably adjust the chart so take a look at it after the cash open tomorrow. Price could not hold the 50-day MA at 7604 so it is key resistance. The SPX likes to recover off the 100-day MA now at 7491 a lot during down drafts. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was barred from attending the 911 celebrations, if stocks collapse after the inflation data, the 7491-ish level is likely a good spot to bounce from for the daily time frame.

Wait for the data that is less than 12 hours away. Oliver's Army is on the island and is now pressed into service to help with the Iran War and relations with Asian nations. Oliver's Army is on their way. Elvis can save the day and put the world right. He warned about London full of Arabs 50 years ago. Too late now. Muslim folks are okay, like anyone else, but radical Islamists are sick religious fanatics that want to murder you. All Muslims are not radical Islamists, not by any stretch, but all radical Islamists are Muslims. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: The SPX bounces, not so much on the inflation data since it was as expected, but instead happy Iran War talk that Arabian leaders will gather together this weekend or Monday to try and resolve or tone down the Middle East violence brough on by the war. Oil prices immediately retreat so stocks rally. It is that simple. Late day, news hits that the Saudi pipeline that was used to boost oil flow across land instead of the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a missile and shut down. A few people are killed. WTIC oil pops back above one hundo and the SPX pulls back about 20 points off the day's highs. Oil up stocks down and oil down stocks up. The SPX gaps-up on the happy talk with the bulls jumping back onto the island to retrieve more coconuts. The 20-day MA resistance is 7685 and the 50-day MA support is 7607. Price is at 7657. Bulls win big above 7685. Bears win big below 7607. Everything in the middle is noise. Oil prices control the show.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Historic Long-Term Stock Market Top At Hand

The historic stock market multi-month and likely multi-year top is so close you can taste it but the MACD line continues to hold the cards for when it will lock-in. As in battle, you wait until you can see the white of their eyes. In trading, you wait until you see the neggie d with the MACD.

As price prints matching or higher highs on the monthly basis, the chart indicators are all negatively diverged except for the MACD line. It likes to bring up the rear during tops. The MACD is in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down so the SPX monthly chart can be topped out right now, with the MACD simply falling lower from here forward.

Ideally, you want to see the neggie d. Price has made the matching high, so it is all about the slope of the MACD line in that blue circle. There are 17 trading days remaining in September so that is a lot of time for negativity to show its face and beat stocks lower. That action will cause the MACD to slope down and at the end of this month the neggie d would be firmly locked into place and she is officially cooked for the multi-month and multi-year time frame. You wonder how far down she will fall once the drop begins. Utilities are leading lower and that is an extremely bad vibe that places a significant drop (crash) on the table.

The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 6740 is on the table as well as the lower band at 5434. Look at that volume from last month. Stocks print the historic all-time record high with lower volume levels not seen since 2024. That is the smart money selling to Jolina Sucka and Bobby Bagholder. 6K may act like a magnet going forward, and the lower band and 50-week MA are coming up that way for a confluence with that price S/R from late 2024.

Keep your eye on the MACD. The historic multi-month, and likely multi-year, top is in right now, or within a month or so. Blow on it and it will likely collapse. The pesky MACD does not want to give up the ship but it is already pushed into the ceiling and can only fall from there. Plan accordingly. This is the type of top where your 401k will be a 201k a year or two from now. The bulls are trying to hold on as the bears say Wake Me Up When September Ends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26: If stocks become soggy, watch the MACD line above. It is fun watching this historic top form and exhaust itself in real-time. 

Note Added Friday, 9/11/26: Whoopsies daisies. The MACD on the SPX monthly is now sloping lower; negative divergence locking in the historic multi-week and multi-year top. The bulls have the remaining 14 trading days in September to rally stocks and push the MACD higher again to prevent the collapse into long-term stock market Hell. If we are at 9/30/26, in 3 weeks, and the MACD locks in the neggie d, it is over folks on a long-term basis. If you are long, you will lose your shirt and be wearing a barrel. This is fun. Always remember, Don't Panic.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: The SPX bounces on Iran War happy talk that sends oil prices lower. That MACD is a temperamental little b*stard now sloping a hair higher after Friday's orgy. The monthly chart will need to play out for the whole month to see if the neggie d on the MACD can be locked-in so the long-term top can be called once and for all. You have to wait until you see the whites of their eyes. You know what to watch. Realize that you are witnessing a significant long-term top occurring. It is only a matter of when the actual top-tick occurs (it may be in place now or within days at most a few weeks). The all-time high at 7817 may be the long-term top on 8/13/26 now a month in the rearview mirror. Do not wait for the top. Scale out of long positions now and going forward since you know what is coming.

XLF Financials ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upward Sloping Channels

Bank runs are bad. But the recent US bank run is a different animal; it is a joyous bull rally. In 3 months, the financials (banks, insurers, etc..) catapult higher from 50-ish to 58-ish, a 16% orgy rally. Bank stocks gain over +1% per week for over 3 months. It's time for another $4K custom-tailored Armani suit and fancy lunch in Manhattan.

However, no one ever promised you a Rose Garden, and along with the sun, a little rain has to fall some time, as Lynn sings. When Grandma would complain to Grandpa about needing one thing or another, Grandpa would shrug his shoulders and say, "Liz, I never promised you a rose garden," and then he would play the song on the hi-fi stereo. We would laugh. People expect too much from each other nowadays. Relax, and enjoy the ride.

The banks are cooked on the weekly basis. Price prints the matching or higher high and all the chart indicators are in negative divergence (red lines). She's out of gas and there is no fuel remaining in the tank. The MACD over the last couple weeks points higher but you can see the neggie d in place over the last 1-1/2 years. That may create a jog move (down-up) but the top will be in place anytime now or within the coming days or week or two.

Banks will then retreat for multiple weeks. The upper band was violated so a trip back to the middle band, same as the 20-wk MA at 54.53, is on the table. That would be an -8% drop. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Plan accordingly.

The 2-leg bull flag played out in textbook fashion off the March bottom. The first leg is 48 to 53 so that is a difference of 5 points. The sideways consolidation occurs forming the flag with the slight bias lower. It is textbook. Then the second leg begins at 51 so adding 5 is a 55-56 target that is easily achieved and price did not stop there. XLF kept on running higher but now runs into the brick wall of neggie d.

Keystone is not in XLF long or short but obviously the play forward is to build a short position for the multi-week pullback at hand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26: Whoopsies daisies. XLF falls -1.4% to 57.30 that should be the start of a multi-week neggie d spankdown. The 50-day MA at 56.93 is important since it matches price S/R. The 57 is the line in the sand where bad things happen if price slips below. Treasury Secretary Bessent is cocky mouthing off that the BOJ is under his control so much for independent central banks. Japan owns a boatload of US debt so Bessent feels an urge to act like daddy. He dares the market to test his actions proclaiming, "I am the house now." Traders will test Bessent. He is on the other side of the street now. When he makes such a statement, traders are going to push him and see if he backs-up what he says, or, if he is an empty suit like Donnie Chump, all hat and no cattle. Okay Bessent, let's see what ya got.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/26: XLF 57.25. The neggie d spankdown in the weekly time frame has started. The bears left behind a gap. The expectation is for banks to trail lower for a few weeks forward. Keystone is not in the banks long or short right now but obviously short is the path forward.

Note Added Saturday, 9/19/26: XLF is at 55.86 receiving the start of the neggie d spankdown.  

Note Added Thursday Morning, 9/24/26: XLF is puking its guts out, driving the porcelain bus, dropping down to 54.54.

The Keystone Speculator's Labor Market (Jobs) Indicator; US LABOR RECOVERY NOW 3 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

The US Monthly Jobs Report is signaling joy and a labor recovery now 3 months along. The labor recession started on 9/8/23 and ran for 34 months, and no one noticed, until 7/3/26 when the labor recovery started. The employment for the data centers bumps the jobs numbers higher although the path forward is sketchy since communities across America are shouting "NIMBY" and "BANANA!" 'Not in my backyard' and 'build absolutely nothing anywhere not anytime'.

A manufacturing recession was in progress for a couple years, along with the housing recession and labor recession, but this sogginess was not enough to tip the US into an overall recession because the AI hype and consumer spending by the wealthy class, that raped the financial system for all it is worth over the last six decades, negate the recession risk. These are not your grandfather's markets. Manufacturing jobs have steadily increased for a few months, mainly due to data centers, painting a bright future ahead, if you ignore the NIMBY crowd.

Keystone is a retired chemical engineer, one of the many hats, and folks should not be afraid of the data centers. The data center negative hype is embellished to pull in eyeballs to the cable news outlets so they can increase viewership and allow them to charge higher advertising rates. Money controls everything. Most of the time, the lip-gloss beauties do not believe what they are reading out of the teleprompter.

The data centers will pull a lot of electricity from the grid unless they are built on top of natural gas reserves and then they can place a gas turbine plant to generate their own electric and feed excess juice back into the grid. Otherwise, the facilities will draw power and there has to be safeguards to make sure the greedy b*stards foot the bill themselves.

On water, the closed cooling loops do conserve water but there is evaporative losses, and the system needs charged with new water each time it is taken down for maintenance or to fix something. Again, the water situation should not be a big deal as long as the tech companies pay the freight. Water can also be brought in on tank trucks; that is done for closed oil loops.

The data center may have square-shaped cooling towers on the roof, many regular buildings do, and this is no biggie. You will see water vapor rising from these units that is water lost that the system will have to make up. Noise should be the major focus and also security plans because you can see that a drone can be flown into the data center and cause lots of damage and downtime. We are now in the new Drone Warfare Age.

As long as the data centers go into old steel mill sites, industrial sites and old power plant sites, no harm no foul. They will be less pollutive and noisy than the old plants and the properties will already be zoned properly. Residential homes will be a distance away so noise should not be an issue at old industrial sites. Data centers in rural areas are a problem. You do not want the quiet serene forest ruined by a constant hum. Screw that. Keep the rural areas zoned agricultural so they cannot build on them. From spending years around big fans, pumps and other equipment, Keystone is deaf in one ear and can't hear out of the other.

Big earthen barriers can be erected around a data center to send noise upwards instead of out across the land and towards residential homes. Shrouds and enclosures can be placed around noisy pumps and fans to mitigate noise. Greedy companies are not going to do this work voluntarily because these noise mitigation efforts will cost millions of dollars. They must be forced to by the local communities. Focus on the decibel readings at various distances from the data center to see if those intentions are met after the facility is operating.

Bigger minds will have to figure out how to protect data centers from drone attacks. Just think, all this effort and money to build data centers that can be destroyed in seconds with a drone.

Anyhoo, this is about jobs so back on track. The US labor recovery should continue. For the next US Monthly Jobs Report, an unemployment rate of 4.3% would be needed on 10/2/26 to flip the situation negative and begin a new labor recession. The housing recession turned into a housing recovery this year but that only ran for 5 months and flipped back into a housing recession. You can scroll back to study that chart.

Thus, if the unemployment rate comes in the same at 4.1%, or even higher at 4.2%, on 10/2/26, the labor recovery will continue to chug along. A rate of 4.3% would be very bad news and probably the early warning shot that the economy may start falling apart. So be there or be square on 10/2/26. May as well since Palisades Park will be closed for the season.

In four weeks, the answer will be known on the path forward for jobs and the labor recovery in progress and it likely depends on the progression of the data center build-out.

SPCX SpaceX Daily Chart; Sideways Channels; Cup and Handle (C&H) Pattern

SpaceX sputter sideways running low on bull fuel. Is the luster off the Musk rose and instead it is smelling like musk? The cup and handle (C&H) pattern jumps out at you (brown lines). It must be C&H weekend since crude oil is also displaying a C&H. It is a bullish pattern but price must break out above the brim base line to prove that it wants to go higher.

The IPO price was set at the 135 and it opened for trading at 150. Price jumped to 225.64 three days after trading started and the bigger fool showed up to get fleeced. People got caught up in the hype and they are now walking around wearing a barrel.

Price splashes down to Earth bottoming at 107-ish the base of the cup. The handle for the cup forms and price sits at the spot where it needs to break out higher at the 150 level. The difference between 150 and 107 is a 43-point tall cup. Thus, mathematician say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not allowed to speak at the Toastmasters luncheon, the upside target for the C&H pattern would be 193 (150+43) if price breaks above 150.

Note the strong price support/resistance (S/R) at the key 135 and 150 levels. There are a lot of touches along these two levels that gives them street cred. The orange circles show gaps above that need filled at some point forward. There is a price cluster around 188-195, and a gap, so it makes sense the C&H would target that area if it plays out.

As stated in the other SPCX charts, she is a babe in the woods technical-wise and more time is needed for moving averages and other technicals to form especially on the weekly chart. But, you work with what you got not what you wish you had. The daily time frame above shows the last two days with matching highs with the red lines showing negative divergence wanting to spank price lower, hence the softness in price on Friday. Mathematician's say hence a lot and this is okay since Keystone accepted an invitation to provide the keynote speech at the Renaissance Festival, where hence's, ergo's, and thereto's are welcome.

The stochastics show upward juice remaining in the fuel tank for the last few days but remains neggie d for the last month. Ditto the histogram. The chart is not inspiring for upside; it is tired. Thus, SpaceX likely needs some type of positive news hype, perhaps a humanoid robot doing the Charleston, to get it to breakout above 150. If so, price may spend some time in the 150-170 channel before bumping up to the 193 target for the C&H.

If price fails here, it will likely bump around in the 135-150 range for a few days. The chart indicators are not tipping their hands. The stock may also move in general agreement with the way tech and AI stocks move. Thus, if you are a SPCX bull, you want to see tech stocks in general to rally, as well as hear some positive news that can kick the C&H into gear.

On the technical side of trading, there are typically three buy points on a breakout. The breakout is bot, and then price usually runs higher for a few days but then pulls back for a back kiss of the breakout line, or near the breakout, that is the second buy point as price moves higher again from this back check. Then the third buy point is when price breaks out above the initial breakout high it achieved.

Keystone is not in SPCX long or short right now. A move above 155 will likely take the stock higher to 190+ going forward. Happy news about the new engines could be a catalyst to kick the C&H into gear. Spaceman by 4 Non Blondes. Linda is fantastic. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26: SPCX is at 153.47 moving above the critical 150 resistance that now becomes support. She is starting to breakout from the C&H and the daily chart is now sporting long and strong postures for the RSI, MACD, stochastics and money flow in the daily time frame (SPCX will likely rally for a few days and then perhaps take up residence in the 150-170 channel for a while). Was there happy talk that bumped it higher? Today is another lock-up expiration so insiders can sell shares but the stock price is rising so it may be a nothing burger. Or folks sell just enough shares to buy the new Escalade or place a down payment on a new mansion. The rich make different daily decisions than the poor.

WTIC Crude Oil Daily Chart; Iran War Explained; Oil Remains Above Pre-Iran War Prices; Head and Shoulders (H&S) Pattern; Cup and Handle (C&H) Pattern; WTIC Oil Explodes Higher Above 104 on 9/10/26

Oil is all the rage these days with Donnie's Iran War one-half year along. Bonehead veep Vance says the Iran War is not a war, no, don't believe your lying eyes, it is but a small skirmish, a conflict, do not fret over the 18 brave service members that already gave their lives as well as the 1,000 injured. The government tally says 750 are injured from the Iran War, but they lie, so it is likely closer to a thousand that are maimed or scarred for life. No, that is not a war. 'What a stupid statement', as President Trump says when he denigrates reporters in public that he invited into the Oval Office.

The chart above explains the Iran War with oil and gasoline prices. Donnie starts the Iran War at the end of February thinking that he can wipe out the entire terrorist regime. He does wipe out the top officials but other heads of the radical Islamist snake immediately appear. Oil prices explode higher and that in turn causes gasoline prices at the pump to jump higher as well as all goods and services since gasoline makes the economy go round.

King Donnie became worried about the mid-term elections while at the same time realizing that the world is now in the Drone Warfare Era. The Strait of Hormuz becomes the focal point since 20 million barrels of oil flow through the chokepoint each day, or used to flow through. Iranian drones fitted with warheads, that only cost $20K or $30K each, can easily pick off ships in the strait and the US military cannot use expensive missiles indefinitely to take them out. Welcome to the Drone Warfare Age. Dumb Donnie ceased military operations trying to negotiate a deal with radical terrorists. It never made sense since the radical Islamists will not follow any agreement, but Trumpski had to learn that for himself. He is not that smart considering that everyone else already knew that even the Uber driver.

Oil and gasoline prices drop in May and June as hope sprung eternal about the MOU (memo of understanding). The weak agreement limped over the finish line only to implode days later. The MOU was DOA. WTIC crude, West Texas Intermediate, oil came back down to 67 but never made it back to the pre-Iran War lower prices. Now oil jumps higher again taking gasoline prices higher. Americans are getting hosed at the pump while the orange head tells everyone it is no big deal to pay a 'little bit more at the pump'. Spoken like a true rich kid that grew up with a silver spoon in his orange mouth.

The H&S pattern formed after the initial jump higher in oil prices occurred. It is a Quasimodo head and shoulders with 3 right shoulders. Nonetheless, the neckline is at 87-ish, and head at 112-ish, that is a difference of 25 dollars. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why the Amvets Club rescinded Keystone's invitation to the spring festival. The club has also banned math jokes from the facility. What did the constipated mathematician do? He worked it out with his pencil.

If the H&S neck gives way, 62 would be the downside target (87-25), and price fell to 67 in the neighborhood but not quite there. The MOU started falling apart and with news of oil tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz, all bets were off, and prices run higher again.

A C&H pattern forms with price exactly at the breakout point at 91-93. Will it breakout or receive a spankdown from this critical resistance? The cup and handle looks more like drooping breasts, like the Meta logo, but you can see the C&H image. The bottom of the coffee cup is 70-ish and the brim breakout line is 91-93, so that is 21 to 23 dollars. Thus, if price breaks out higher, probably due to more hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, the upside target is 112 to 116, a return to the highs after the Iran War started.

The daily reality television show Donnie drama continues. Diesel prices are at multi-year highs and will send food prices higher. Farmers are screwed from all sides because they need the diesel to run equipment. At the same time, fertilizer costs are higher due to the closure of the strait. And the big blow is Donnie himself bringing in low-cost beef, undercutting the US farmers, because he wants grocery store prices lower in front of the mid-term elections. Trumpski makes all his decisions based on politics.

Chump is admitting that his tariffs raise prices, probably without this fact and his stupid actions registering in his slow orange head. Donnie proves he is King Socialist since he is 'controlling the means of production' and distribution with beef. Oh what a tangled web he weaves. Republicans denounce socialism as they stand in the socialism pig sty.

Having fun yet? The US Monthly Jobs Report drops this morning. Stocks are usually higher the two days into a 3-day holiday weekend so some traders were front-running this expectation yesterday. Donnie Chump needs to get a handle on the Iran War specifically the Strait of Hormuz. He was always a little rich kid where daddy or others, lawyers, would fix his messes. Now he stands on an island by himself after solely initiating a war in the Middle East resulting in higher inflation, Trumpflation, and he is floundering, without a strategy going forward.

Secretary Bessent promised an economic D-Day that was a whimper. Trumpski and his crew has the braggadocio and embellishment side of politics down pat, but they lack on the follow-through, and actually doing what they say. Bessent was talking about foreign bank accounts the other day insinuating that 'we know where your money is' so that is fine, why did you not already freeze it? The US is now committed to holding a large troop force in the Middle East through 2027 but Vance says it is not a war.

King Donnie now says, "We are almost in total control of the strait," when for the last 3 months he bragged and proclaimed that 'he was in complete control of the strait'. Everyone could see that he never was in complete control of the strait. The lies get old just like they did with Sleepy Joe Biden. Americans are getting hosed at the gasoline pump and then they go across the street to the grocery store to experience sticker shock in the food and produce aisles. Keystone asked the butcher if they are offering an installment plan to pay for some beef. The answer was no, so he is looking in the canned goods section for Spam.

Keep an eye on the C&H to see if a breakout occurs. If so, you know the upside target. WTIC oil is at 90.65 and Brent oil is at 95.07. Donnie is hoping for someone to find more oil like Jed Clampett. Beverly Hillbillies. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 9/5/26: WTIC oil is parked at 91.20 for the Labor Day weekend when it will decide to bounce, or die. Brent oil 95.79. Diesel fuel is the highest price ever running towards $6 per gallon. Businesses will likely start charging fuel fees again like during the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden and Trump are two inflationists; Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber.

Note Added Monday, 9/7/26: WTIC oil is at 92.26 and Brent at 97.22.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 9/9/26, at 5:39 AM EST: WTIC oil is at 95.16 and Brent at 100.66. First trip-digits since July. Run out and fill up your tank since gasoline and diesel fuel costs are going nowhere but up. Price is starting to breakout of the C&H pattern. Donnie Chump is clenching his buttocks as he sees oil crossing back above one hundo.

Note Added Monday, 9/10/26, at 7:49 AM EST: WTIC oil is at 97.48 and Brent at 102.45. King Donnie says the Iran War is not a war but the next day in comments to reporters he calls it a war. What a mess. The orange head now magically proclaims the war will end in November. What a dunce. Secretary of Energy Wright paints a rosy picture proclaiming that 11 million barrels pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day with the US military protection. He says another 3 to 5 million barrels are added from increasing pipeline flow. So Wright says oil flow is at 14 to 16 million barrels a day restoring 70% to 80% of the oil flow pre-Iran War when it was 20 million barrels per day. He also has some swamp land in Florida he wants to sell you. When the strait went to zero oil flow at the start of the war, oil went to 120, so 60 to 120 is the range. If one-half the flow is restored, that would be a price around 90 bucks, keeping it in obviously simple terms. Wright's claim should have oil back down to the 70-80 range. It is a lie. Wright is wrong. With the oil price high and climbing, there is likely less than one-half of the pre-war oil flow occurring and probably only around 6 million barrels through the strait, and 2 million through the pipelines, pulling numbers out of thin air, for a total of about 8 million barrels less than one-half of the original 20 million barrel flow. Truth is in the numbers, not out of corrupt politician's mouths.

Note Added Monday, 9/10/26, at 8:15 AM EST: Boom! WTIC oil is at 99.24 and Brent at 104.18. The Saudi's say oil production is diminished creating higher oil prices. Americans are screwed at the gasoline pump and grocery store. Donnie Chump, the screw-up. He is mouthing off at campaign events while the Middle East burns. Oil is all that matters.

Note Added Monday, 9/10/26, at 8:33 AM EST: Double-boom! WTIC oil is at 100.02 and Brent at 105.25. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hits triple digits again. Where's Donnie? Bueller? Donnie? Bueller? The wheels are falling off the bus.

Note Added Monday, 9/10/26, at 8:23 PM EST: Triple-boom! WTIC oil is explodes higher to 104.32. King Donnie Chumpski is playing his little baby games tonight at a campaign rally, cracking jokes and seeking adoration, as Americans are raped at the gasoline pump and grocery store.