SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts; Fibonacci Retracements for the October 2022 and October 2023 Bottoms

There are two key bottoms after the 2022 lull; October 2022 and October 2023. The stock market orgies continued into the February 2025 top when equities fell off a cliff as forecasted by Keystone and no other analyst. It was nothing fancy, just neggie d as usual.

So down we go and people are finally showing some concern. Stocks keep going down because traders and investors will not lose their bullishness. Everyone is still talking about buying the dip. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

The October 2023 bottom, and what a nice bottom it is, to the February 2025 top, results in a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 5356, the 50% Fib is 5116, and 61.8% Fib is 4876.

The October 2022 bottom, to the February 2025 top, results in a 38.2% retracement to 5151, the 50% Fib is at 4848, and the 61.8% Fib is down at 4544.

What do you notice? Yes, the Fib retracements of the rallies from the two different bottoms share commonality. The 50% fib from the Oct 2023 set-up is 5116 and the 38% Fib from the Oct 2022 set-up is 5151. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the 5116-5151 level will be key for the weeks and months ahead.

Also, the 62% Fib from the Oct 2023 set-up is 4876 and the 50% Fib from the Oct 2022 set-up is 4848. Thus, the 4848-4876 level will be key for the weeks and months ahead.

Of course, the starting points at the October 2022 bottom and October 2023 bottom would be 100% retracements and on the table for a full-fledged historic stock market crash.

So first thing is first. If stocks continue falling apart, the 5356 is the first Fibonacci support level that will try to stop the selling. If it fails, the next line of Fibonacci defense is 5116-5151 and, if it fails, the 4848-4876 Fib's are next in line and, if they fail, and you are still long stocks, do what you would do if your airplane lost both engines. Put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye.

Note how the Fibonacci retracements line-up with the lows from last summer so that gives the 5116-5151 landing zone additional clout (maybe for later this year and 2026).

We shall see if the selloff has Legs to go with those fine bottoms. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/15/25: The SPX places a low last week at 5505 and ends the week at 5639 making a bounce or die decision from the 50-week MA at 5656.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.