SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; 150-Day MA Potentially Rolling Over to Usher-In a Cyclical Bear Market

One of the key stock market indicators for a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market is the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. If the 150-day is sloping higher, it is a cyclical bull market, like now, and if the moving average slopes lower, it is a a cyclical bear market. Last week, the 150-day MA is starting to flatten in preparation of rolling over.

By definition, the 150-day MA cannot slope lower unless price is below the moving average pulling it lower like a lead anchor. That is happening now. Price is down at 5639 way below the 150-day MA at 5839, two hundo points below, so it continues to pull and tug the 150 lower.

Thus, the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market as per the slope of the SPX 150-day MA but watch it like a hawk since the 150-day MA may roll over and start sloping lower which would usher-in a cyclical bear market.

The critical SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross metrics have both failed ushering in a cyclical bear market. The slope of the 150-day MA does not yet join the party. Come on, little girl, have some fun with the bears. So Caught Up In You, little girl.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, you can verify if the stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market pattern by following the 3 metrics mentioned. If the SPX-12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross turn bullish reversing the cyclical bear back into a cyclical bull market and join the 150-day MA that starts sloping higher again, the future is bright for stocks that will rally to new highs. Bulls will be saved. It seems like a stretch.

If the SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross remain in the cyclical bear market pattern (see the other charts), and the 150-day MA shown above rolls over lower, it is all over but the crying. The cyclical bear market will be confirmed going forward and the carnage will deepen on Wall Street. It looks like the easier path, but Fed Chairman Powell speaks Wednesday so anything can happen.

If you are a bull long the stock market, you need to get on your knees and pray for the SPX to run above 5839 and the SPX 150-day MA to start sloping higher to give you salvation and save your sorry arse. If you are long, and the SPX 150-day MA flattens (like now) and rolls over lower, to join the already negative SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross, you are going to lose boatloads of money.

After all these many months, the bulls may finally be breaking down. Foggy Mountain Breakdown with humble Master Scruggs holding court. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls. The 150-day MA at 5848 continues sloping slightly higher but the longer that price remains below 5848, it will pull the 150-day MA down and likely flatten it, and roll it over to the downside, creating cyclical bear market pain going forward. Keep watching it.