SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 10, 12 and 20-Month MA's

One of Keystone's most important cyclical stock market signals is the SPX 12-month MA cross which is dubbed the cliff edge. When the 12-mth at 2742 was lost, it was over for the stock market. Equities are now in a cyclical bear market.

Price now drops to the 20-month MA at 2640 which is the current battle. The stock market will drastically deteriorate if the 2640 is lost. The S&P 500 is looking for support right now since a lot of the price action in late 2017 and early 2018 was at the current level at 2640-ish. Price will bounce or die from this level. A bounce would likely take the SPX up to back kiss the 12-mth MA at 2742.

Note that the 10-mth MA at 2740 has crossed down below the 12-mth MA at 2742 (red circle) another negative development for the stock market. The MACD also prints a negative cross (red circle). The RSI and stochastics are not yet in bear territory (below 50%) so watch that closely. The current candlestick will be cast in concrete next Friday at EOM and December trading begins on Monday, 12/3/18.

Remember the purple circle? Keystone described the stock market topping process this year as it played out. We saw the indicators roll over on the monthly chart above sans the MACD line (green line). That was the end of September so we had to wait for the October candlestick to begin. The SPX needed to print another matching or higher high in price to satisfy the long and strong MACD line and it happened in October. At that mathing price high, the indicators all lined up with neggie d, so the smack down was at hand.

The expectation was for the stock market to top out and die anytime from late September to November. Boom. Stocks began falling apart and crashing in early October. It was all in the chart above. It's not rocket science. The overbot conditions, rising red wedge and universal neggie d all conspired to smack price lower.

The indicators continue sloping lower, weak and bleak, so more new lows would be expected in the SPX after any bounce would occur in this monthly time frame. Watch the current battle at the 20-mth MA at 2640. The SPX price is at .....wait for it.... wait a little bit longer for it..... a wee bit longer....... yes, 2640, at 10:34 AM EST, Friday, 11/23/18.

The LOD is 2631 piercing the 20-mth MA but price recovered. The S&P 500 is deciding to bounce or die. The bears battle to stab down through 2640. The bulls fight to hold the 2640 support with all their might. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:51 AM EST: SPX 2640. VIX 21.49.

Note Added 10:55 AM EST: SPX 2643. VIX 21.41.

Note Added Sunday, 11/25/18: SPX 2632. VIX 21.52. Copper failed into Friday's closing bell which sent the stock market into a tailspin. Bears win big with the SPX closing below the 50-month MA at 2640. Bulls need to immediately push the S&P 500 above 2640 or they are toast.