By K E Stone
Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has
infected over 5.4 million people around the world murdering over 344,000 souls.
That is astounding. Hundreds of thousands of people lay dead on the planet at
the hand of China’s Wuhan virus. 2.3 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer
disease has attacked and sickened over 1.666 million Americans (0.52% of the
330 million US population) murdering 98,683 United States citizens (almost
100K). 447K have recovered.
1 in every 192 Americans are sickened by Wuhan’s COVID-19. One-third
of the world’s coronavirus cases (almost 33%) and 30% of the total deaths are in
the United States but America is only 4.2% of the world’s population. China knowingly
unleashed horror and mayhem on the world. From a war perspective, coronavirus
is an ideal bioweapon capable of killing-off and incapacitating a society or country
without destroying the infrastructure.
Brazil, Chile, Peru, Columbia and other Latin American
nations are experiencing out-of-control outbreaks just as Keystone forecasted
in the prior Article 7. Brazil is number two in COVID-19 cases only behind the
United States. Russia is the third worst nation infected.
The United States is at the point where an assessment can be
made about the success, or lack thereof, in restarting the US economy. Folks
are traveling to the beaches on this Memorial Day weekend but overall people
are not venturing out as expected. Most folks choose to stay sheltered in place
instead of risking infection. Fear has infiltrated many human minds and will be
difficult to remove. This is extremely bad news for the economy going forward. Businesses
will lose hope. Restaurants cannot survive only serving 25% of their customers;
they will have to close the doors. Hotels cannot remain open at 5% or 10%
occupancy rates. The commercial real estate industry is in serious trouble.
The US stock market, however, runs ever higher continuing to
enjoy buoyancy and elevated prices after the March bottom. Traders and
investors have bet the farm on the FAANG stocks (Facebook (FB); Apple (AAPL);
Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (Alphabet; GOOGL)). The tech sector is
on fire with investors buying chips (semiconductors) with both hands. The
reason the stock market runs higher is the same as the last 11 years; central
banker Keynesian money-printing. The financial system is a complete joke. Capitalism
only exists in theoretical text books. America is best described as a faux free
market crony capitalism system that is in its last years. Capitalism fails like
all other ism’s in history because of human greed and non-transparency. It’s
not rocket science.
The Federal Reserve and other global central bankers such as
the BOJ (Bank of Japan), ECB (European Central Bank) and PBOC (People’s Bank of
China) are printing money like madmen. The world is awash in liquidity ever
since former Fed Chairman Bernanke implemented QE 1 in March 2009 to save the
stock market and protect the elite class that own huge equity portfolios. These
soulless central bankers are the four financial horsemen of the global
financial apocalypse. Their money-printing schemes only serve to support
markets for a few years, always further enriching the already-wealthy, and then
end in collapse.
Do not believe the talking heads that say the economy was in
great shape before the virus hit. The Fed touts this line; it is simply untrue.
The economic data was mixed at best and the only reason there were good data
points is that the Fed was goosing markets with easy money since
September/October 2019 when the American financial system almost stealthily
crashed. The average person is unaware of all these financial shenanigans
taking place at the world's exchanges. The thesis about a sharp snap-back in the US economy is rubbish. The
economy was not that strong before covid hit.
Folks better take the coming economic downturn serious and
hope it is not Great Depression redux, which it likely is. The virus situation
rhymes with the Dustbowl days. Many of you must wake up to the fact that your
job is gonzo. You will never set foot in that facility again, where you used to work, no matter how much you tell yourself you will. Your time there is done. Get on
with your next direction the sooner the better. There are likely many difficult
years ahead.
The higher rate of infections and deaths among the black and
Latino communities continues. Poorer folks, in general, are falling to covid
more than wealthy folks. Disadvantaged communities live in closer quarters with
more family members under one roof thereby increasing chances for infections.
Ethnic communities tend to eat less expensive food which is higher in sugars
and salts to improve taste. Over many years, the lack of proper nutrition leads
to many ailments such as diabetes and heart disease that are the death nails
for the patients that then contracts covid. Drugs and alcohol are also problems
in run-down communities although do not paint all disadvantaged people with
such a negative brush.
The working poor in America are the noblest and greatest
people that the country has to offer. Imagine knowing that your life is extremely
tough and difficult each day, worrying about real things such as where to live
or if you will eat, and never knowing if you will be able to pay all the bills
by the end of the month, but you rise each day and never miss a day of work no
matter how menial the job or how low the pay or how ignorant people treat you. If your children are looking for
heroes in this sick world, steer them away from the corrupt dirtbag
politicians, greedy bankers and executives, steroid-using overpaid athletes and
gold-chain hip-hopper’s and instead educate them on what it means to be a noble
human being like the working poor. America used to think this way; it does not anymore.
The black and Latino communities are hit particularly hard
by coronavirus. Let’s take a look at the math behind the higher rates of
infections within these groups as opposed to the white and Asian groups. The
Native Americans, such as Navajo Nation, are also impacted worse by the
coronavirus but let’s set this aside for the following analysis (which in no
way deemphasizes the tragedy currently occurring within the Native American
population).
From the top, the US has 330 million people. 1.7 million are
infected with COVID-19. This equates to an infection rate of 0.52% which means
that 1 in every 192 US citizens have contracted coronavirus; let’s call it 1 in
200 Americans to make it easy to understand. Those are pretty good odds that
you will not contract the virus, especially if young and healthy, and explains
some of the cavalier attitudes. Let’s dive deeper.
In the United States, 60% of the population is white, 13% black,
18% Latino, 6% Asian and 3% Native American and other. Interestingly, for
decades, the blacks were the major minority in America but over the last couple
decades, the Latinos have clearly taken the lead. Grouping the blacks and
Latinos together for this analysis is 31% and the white and others are 69%. The blacks and
Latinos are infected with COVID-19 at about twice the infection rate compared
to whites for some of the reasons listed above. Also, poor folks tend to not
have health insurance and will delay seeking medical treatment as long as
possible making recovery more lengthy and difficult.
Thus, if the black/Latino group suffers twice the
infections, that means 0.6 million, or 600,000 infections are attributable to
the white grouping and 1.1 million cases are assigned to the black/Latino
group. There are 330 million people in the US so the 69% that are the
white/Asian/other grouping accounts for 227 million folks and the 31%
black/Latino population is 102 million people.
Thus, for the white grouping of 227 million people, 600,000
people are infected for an infection rate of 0.26%, or 1 in 378 people; call it
1 in 400 people to make it easy.
For the black/Latino grouping of 102 million people, 1.1
million people are infected for an infection rate of 1.1%, or 1 in 92 people;
call it 1 in 90 people to make it easy. The results are striking and make
perfect sense. The data verifies the ongoing coronavirus zeitgeist.
For the white grouping, there is about a 1 in 400 chance of
getting infected by covid. This is why many white folks are less concerned
about covid such as President Trump and his white entourage, the elite class
that are mainly white, the upper middle class mainly white, the Midwest states
and many republican-led states. Mainly white protestors in states such as
Michigan (sans Detroit) are demanding the states reopen their economies since
they do not see the impact of the virus that other ethnic Americans see. Of
course they do not if only 1 in 400 in their main white ethic grouping are
sick. None of their family members, relatives or neighbors have the virus, so
they adopt Alfred E Neuman’s attitude and not worry. If something has not hit
home, it does not seem like a big deal. For the whites, the coronavirus seems more like an inconvenience.
For the black and Latino communities, however, the data is
sad. A stunning 1 in 90 people in these communities are sick with covid. This
means that the folks and families within these ethnic groups all know someone
that has contracted coronavirus. Chances are that an uncle, aunt, grandma or
even cousin Alejandro, that huffs and puffs each time he walks up that half-flight
of stairs to the back door of Mama Maria’s kitchen, has been stricken by
coronavirus . If you ask DeShawn, Tyrone and Jazmine, or, Jose, Juan and Lucia,
if they know anyone sick with the virus, all will say yes in unison. If you ask Jack,
Cody, Emily and Abigail, most will say no and wonder what all this daily virus
fuss is all about.
Perceptions matter. Generally, if you are white or Asian,
you are viewing the virus saga as a temporary hitch in the stock and job market’s
giddy-up and all will be fine in a few weeks. After all, you do not know anyone
that has gotten sick. If you are a black or Latino brother or sister, however,
the coronavirus hits home with either a family member, a relative, or a
neighbor that you know is sick with the illness. You worry that you may become
sick since you hear about and know others that are in the hospital and at the
same time you lost your job and are unable to find another. Put yourself in
other people’s shoes sometimes and you may begin to feel what they feel.
The bad fortune bestowed on the blacks and Latinos with the
higher infection rates will only exacerbate the coming class war in the US. The elite class has no worries; most own property on exotic
islands where they can jet to an escape at any time. They already raped America
for all its worth over the last five decades so there is not much left on the
plate anymore anyway. Once a few initial events occur where the wealthy in
America are verbally and physically attacked (hopefully not, but it seems
inevitable), that will open the floodgates to violent social unrest and a
multi-year class war rich versus poor. The lower middle class, with pitchforks
and torches in hand, that used to be middle class with high aspirations two and
three decades ago, have given up hope and realize the rigged crony capitalism
system will always keep them low on the totem pole. The huddled masses figure
it is better to go with a new system since they have been screwed over
multi-generationally by the current system.
In recent years, young folks (under 35 years old) touted how
they were all about experiences. Many millennials prefer to live in apartments
because little time is spent there; these young hipsters are always on the
move, and traveling, and accumulating those experiences. They shunned saving up
for a down payment on a house; that is what the old generation did. How’s all
that working out for you now?
Do any of you young folks wish you had the money back from
all those trips? If you had purchased a house instead of taking all those trips
and living the high-life, you would be sheltered in place in your own kingdom
right now, where you can walk outside and enjoy your own property and have your
own space to breathe. Alas, instead you are confined to an apartment jail cell.
If you feel like a caged animal in a city apartment, there is good reason for
that; you are.
Going forward, it is likely that millennials and other young
folks may be thinking more about saving for a down payment on a house rather
than those expensive experiences that are already long forgotten. When
inflation ramps higher in future years (there is likely a year or two of
deflation remaining in the near term) owning material assets will be important.
You cannot sell those rarely-viewed pictures of your old travel experiences
collecting dust in an unnamed computer folder but you can sell a house, a car,
stocks, bonds, guns, jewelry and other physical assets for money if times
become desperate.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes
and more data and information are available. This is Article 8 in the
coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This
eighth article is published on Sunday, 5/24/20, and the next article, number eight
in the series, is tentatively slated for publishing on Wednesday, 6/3/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus SuccessStories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexicoand Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus TestingSupplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 BillionSpending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; CoronavirusArchive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and
annotated by Keystone. The Arkansas and North Carolina charts are provided by
their state data bases and annotated by Keystone.
TKSCIRM forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases
for any country or region. Major trouble is ahead when the ‘number of new
coronavirus cases are increasing’ especially through the initial exponential expansion
phase. The ‘daily new virus cases’ are typically shown in a bar chart format.
The first thing to watch for with the Keystone Model is ‘when the daily new
cases begin leveling-off typically into a choppy sideways move’. It is key that
the ‘new cases level off and begin drifting sideways lower since this will
eventually create the top in the active cases curve which is the bell curve’.
The active case curve represents the maximum strain on the
medical personnel and the hope for all countries is that this curve flattens
out and then rolls over to the downside (the top of the bell chart pattern forms
and the virus cases begin dropping forming the right side of the bell). Thus,
the two key charts are the new case barchart and the active case bell curve.
Attention! The term “flattening the curve” specifically references
the active case bell curve and not the new cases chart.
The media, the public and even officials on television, that
are supposed to know what they are talking about, are misusing the terms. All
50 states are open for business but many have not flattened the active cases
curve. The peak of the active case bell curve represents the maximum strain on
the healthcare facilities and medical personnel and the top is not known until
it happens. The Keystone Model estimates this topping-out day when the
flattening of the curve begins.
The flattening of the curve was very important two and three
months ago but states, and countries, are reopening economies anyway without
the curve flattening. Perhaps officials realize they are damned if they do and
damned if they don’t. The markets and economy will tank if businesses cannot
reopen but as they reopen, and people interact, a second wave of virus
infections may hit that will sink the economic ship. Choose your poison.
About two to two and one-half weeks have passed since states
started reopening economies. Interestingly, the betting money would have
expected a larger spike in cases due to the renewed close interaction of
humans, however, this is not generally occurring, so far. People are generally
following social distancing guidelines and being respectful of one another. In
addition, many folks are simply staying home and choosing not to go out. So the
worry was that too many folks would come out too quickly creating a spike in
cases leading to trouble, or, that the lockdown would be extended killing the
economy through inactivity.
As it turns out, what may sink the economic ship,
is that people are now too fearful and may not want to go out to spend discretionary
money again. So the economies are open exposing the workers and others to the
virus but the patrons are not coming back. Also, there is a second wave spike now occurring in Arkansas and North Carolina; the virus data is jumping higher in
these states.
TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country
or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date).
Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks
depending on how the virus situation is handled. If the country, region or
state was well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days after the new cases
peak.
South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Israel, Taiwan,
Hong Kong and China were well-prepared and the active case curve flattened
quickly. These nations and regions have the best pandemic plans and testing protocols
and reached their Active Case Peak Dates, on average, only 11 days after the
New Case Peak Date. These countries with extensive testing programs were able
to identify and quarantine infected individuals quickly leading to a faster
resolution of the pandemic in that region.
Conversely, countries less prepared, and the states that
were also not well prepared, take 28 days or almost three times longer, past
the New Case Peak Date, as per the Keystone Model, for the active case bell
curve to peak. This is disturbing since President Trump’s criteria for
reopening the economy is 14 days past the new case peak date. So Trump’s
original concern about flattening the curve is tossed out the window over the
new criteria which is 14 days of falling new cases.
The active cases chart for America just peaked on 5/21/20 as
the Keystone Model predicted (28 days after the peak in new cases). The curve
has finally flattened for the US which is fantastic news but it must remain
this way and not receive any more moves higher. Give it a few days to make
sure. Medical workers rejoice because it appears the worst is over (as long as
the active cases curve does not move higher again). The bell curve is
flattening and the sharp downward move in active cases will be coming in a week
or two which represents the right side of the bell pattern. The only fly in the
ointment would be if a spike in cases occurs (a la Arkansas and North Carolina)
because folks are out and about comingling again.
Note that the active case bell curve begins flattening about
28 days after the new case chart peaks. Trump’s edict is to restart your
economy after 14 days of lower new cases. Thus, Donnie is betting that starting
the economy two weeks before the active cases bell curve begins to flatten is
the correct approach for handling the virus situation going forward.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection
Rate Model identifies the New Case Peak Date (peak in new infections), then adds
11 days, if a country or region is well-prepared for a pandemic, to arrive at
its active cases peak date which flattens the curve. For countries and regions
not well prepared, 28 days are added to the New Case Peak Date to arrive at the
projected Active Case Peak Date where the curve will begin flattening.
The active case bell curves have peaked, flattened and
rolled over or are rolling over for the following nations that are on their way
to better days ahead (barring a second wave).
China
(Active Case Peak Date 2/17/20) (13 days after New Case Peak Date) (data is
suspect)
South Korea
(Active Case Peak Date 3/11/20) (8 days)
Switzerland
(Active Case Peak Date 3/21/20) (11 days)
Austria
(Active Case Peak Date 4/3/20) (8 days)
Australia
(Active Case Peak Date 4/4/20) (13 days)
Germany
(Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (10 days)
Taiwan
(Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (17 days)
Hong Kong
(Active Case Peak Date 4/7/20) (9 days)
Hungary
(Active Case Peak Date 5/4/20) (24 days)
Israel
(Active Case Peak Date 4/16/20) (14 days)
Italy
(Active Case Peak Date 4/19/20) (30 days)
Ireland
(Active Case Peak Date 4/20/20) (10 days)
Turkey
(Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (13 days)
Spain
(Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (29 days)
France
(Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (26 days)
Japan
(Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (18 days)
Portugal
(Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (31 days)
Singapore
(Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (23 days)
United
States (Active Case Peak Date 5/21/20) (28 days)
The active
case bell curves have not peaked for the following nations that remain mired in
the coronavirus quagmire.
Philippines
(Asia) (data is suspect and unreliable)
3/31/20 New
Case Peak Date
4/29/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
UK (Europe) (data is suspect and unreliable)
4/10/20 New Case Peak Date
5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but
the chart keeps running higher
Netherlands
(Europe)
4/10/20 New
Case Peak Date
5/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
Belgium
(Europe)
4/15/20 New
Case Peak Date
5/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
Sweden (North Europe)
4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection
days on 4/8/20 and 4/30/20 but 4/24/20 is worse)
5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date but
the chart keeps running higher
Ecuador
(South America) (Latin America is in COVID-19 Hell)
4/24/20 New
Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/10/20 date)
5/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
The
Philippines data is untrustworthy. Dictator Duterte has closed off the media.
Philippines is a Hell-hole right now. The UK data is also suspect for
inconsistencies. Humorously, the sympathy factor for Prime Minister Johnson,
who almost died of covid, has worn off and more Brit’s are calling for
accountability from Boris. Italy, France, Spain and Portugal had a tough go of
it but their active case curves have flattened and are rolling over. However,
the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden all display rising active cases curves.
These nations have not yet found a path out of the covid woods. Belgium, and
Canada below, were both displaying flat active case curves but new cases
increased and the active case curves started moving higher again nullifying the
temporary joy in these nations. The virus is sticky in Europe.
Sweden and
Ecuador were forecasted to top-out on their active cases curves this weekend so
give it a few days. Latin America, South Asia and Africa are in COVID-19 Hell
right now. Note that the projected dates for the peaks in the active cases curves below are in June. The southern hemisphere of Mother Earth is going into
wintertime as the northern hemisphere proceeds into summertime. The Wuhan virus
would be expected to spread quicker in the southern hemisphere during the
cooler conditions so South America and Africa are screwed. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls.
Canada
(North America)
5/3/20 New
Case Peak Date
5/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
Nigeria
(African continent faces an epic human tragedy)
5/8/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)
6/5/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Russia
(Eastern Europe and North Asia)
5/11/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)
6/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
Poland
(Europe)
5/12/20 New
Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)
6/9/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date but the chart keeps running higher
Pakistan
(South Asia)
5/13/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/10/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date
Brazil
(South America)
5/20/20 New
Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/6/20 date)
6/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Kenya
(Africa)
5/21/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Indonesia
(Southeast Asia)
5/21/20 New
Case Peak Date (4/12/20, 4/14/20, 4/17/20, 4/28/20, 5/1/20, 5/13/20 huge days)
6/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Peru (South
America)
5/21/20 New
Case Peak Date (4/13/20, 4/25/20, 5/13/20 big days)
6/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bolivia
(South America)
5/21/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Chile (South
America)
5/22/20 New
Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 5/13/20 date)
6/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Argentina
(South America)
5/22/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Mexico
(North America)
5/22/20 New
Case Peak Date (5/8/20 and 5/13/20 big days)
6/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Egypt (North
Africa)
5/22/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/19/20 Projected
Active Case Peak Date
Honduras
(Central America)
5/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Columbia
(South America)
5/23/20 New
Case Peak Date
6/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
India (South Asia)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the
prior 5/10/20 date)
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Bangladesh (South Asia)
5/23/20 New Case Peak Date
6/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
South Africa
(African continent faces an epic human tragedy)
5/23/20 New Case
Peak Date (5/13/20, 5/17/20, 5/21/20 big days)
6/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Latin and
Central America is in COVID-19 Hell as indicated with Brazil, Peru, Bolivia,
Chile, Argentina, Columbia and Honduras. Mexico remains in the virus soup. South
Asia and Asia proper are in the coronavirus pickle barrel as shown with
Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Africa is a hot spot as verified
with Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa. Russia and Poland are virus
trouble spots in Europe and Eastern Asia.
For the
states that have flattened their active cases bell curve chart recently, the top
in the active cases chart occurs an average of 28 days beyond the peak date in
new cases, as per the Keystone Model.
Louisiana;
New Case Peak Date 4/2/20; Active Case (which indicates the maximum strain on
the healthcare system) Peak Date 4/23/20; 21 days
New Jersey;
New Case Peak Date 4/3/20 but 4/16/20 also a peak; Active Case Peak Date
5/20/20; 47 and 34 days
Massachusetts;
New Case Peak Date 4/24/20; Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20; 26 days
Pennsylvania;
New Case Peak Date 4/24/20; Active Case Peak Date 5/21/20; 27 days
Many states
are experiencing ever rising active case charts so the strain on the healthcare
system increases each day for these individual states. America’s active case
chart has peaked (if it holds) and will finally flatten but the country is by
no means out of the coronavirus woods as yet. All 50 states are in various
stages of reopening their economies. Arkansas and North Carolina are blown out
of the water over the last few days starting to feel a second wave impact of
the virus. Both states see a pop in new cases perhaps due to relaxing the
lockdown rules prematurely allowing covid to then spread more easily. These two
states and California and Texas are not expected to peak-out on their active
cases bell curve until June which means their medical facilities and personnel
will remain under strain.
Applying the
28 days in the Keystone Model to arrive at the peak in active cases, for the US
states, shows that New York, Florida and Ohio are past their projected dates
but still trying to flatten the curve. Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas
and North Carolina are battling to exit the virus grip. Time will tell.
New York;
New Case Peak Date 4/15/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/13/20 but chart
continues higher
Florida; New
Case Peak Date 4/17/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/15/20 but chart
continues higher
Ohio; New
Case Peak Date 4/19/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/17/20 but chart
continues higher
Washington
(state); New Case Peak Date 5/1/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/29/20
California;
New Case Peak Date 5/9/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/6/20
Texas; New
Case Peak Date 5/15/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/12/20
Arkansas;
New Case Peak Date 5/20/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/17/20
North
Carolina; New Case Peak Date 5/23/20; Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/20/20
Illinois,
Michigan, Maryland, Georgia, Connecticut, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado are
states with higher numbers of infections than other states but the data and
charts available do not allow for proper analysis.
As per the Keystone Model, for any
state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply
identify what day the new cases peak first and then add 28 days to that New Case Peak Date to project
when the top of the bell curve, and maximum strain on healthcare facilities,
will occur, at the Active Cases Peak Date.
On Sunday
evening, 5/17/20, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell appears on the 60 Minutes
television news show. Powell proclaims that there is limitless availability of tools. The stock market will love the easy money Keynesian talk. The central bankers are one-trick ponies.
On Monday
morning, 5/18/20, the Dow Jones Industrials Index explodes 1,000 points higher
on the Fed’s promise for more easy money. Like the last 11 years, stocks jump
higher as the Fed and other global central bankers promise to continue printing
money forever. The free money is used to buy assets such as stocks, bonds, real
estate… No one knows what any asset is truly worth anymore due to over one
decade of central banker intervention.
President
Trump surprises America saying he is taking hydroxychloroquine. This is the
malaria drug that, in an initial limited study, shows promise in treating
patients with early onset of the coronavirus. One-half of the small sample size
recovered a few days faster than those that did not take the drug. Trump
proclaims that hydroxychloroquine is very safe, however, studies show a direct
link to heart problems, especially for those that have potential heart disease,
like Trump. Nonetheless, King Donnie decrees that hydroxychloroquine is safe
and no worry to take and says he has been taking a pill once per day for a
couple weeks (that is 14 consecutive days).
In true
Trumpian fashion, Donnie says he looked forward to seeing the expressions on
people’s faces when he would announce that he is taking the drug (this vignette
provides great insight into his mental thinking). The reality television show
presidency is in full swing. Tune in tomorrow to see if the president continues
taking hydroxychloroquine, or not. Tune in anyway since Donnie always puts on a
good show daily. Comically, Trump is taking the drug for prophylaxis (disease
prevention) but people associate this word and prophylactic with taking a
treatment through the butt and assume Donnie is bending over each day exposing
his wrinkled orange behind. That is funny.
This
silliness is hallmark behavior of the bread and circus days. Every day and
everything is entertainment like the days of ancient Rome; politics, government,
jobs, events, life. This behavior is expected at
the end of long-term cycles such as the Kondratieff Cycle. Enjoy the fun and
games and daily entertainment show because what comes next is recessions,
depressions, war.
On Tuesday,
5/19/20, the number of US coronavirus cases top 1.5 million another grim milestone. From the Trump twisted
logic perspective, he calls the 1.5 million COVID-19 cases “a badge of honor.”
What? “I view it as a badge of honor, really, it’s a badge of honor.” About
11.8 million tests have been performed. During the last one to three-month
period, the testing yielded from 30% to 50% positive cases (people are infected
with coronavirus). This creates some of the hype and hysteria around the
situation. All states are now showing 20% or lower positives and a few states
in single digits. Since the testing program was screwed-up from the get-go, and
the tests were vehemently rationed, only the sickest of patients received
tests, thus, the percentage of positive cases were very high. Once the testing
program is finally getting to where it should be, the percentage of positive
cases are coming down. This is why Trump claims a badge of honor. People
continue becoming sick and infected albeit at a slower rate.
The COVID-19
timeline is rhyming with the Spanish Flu outbreak. Both pandemics began around
March. During the Spanish Flu days, a lull period came into play, like now,
where people refused to be locked up in their homes. The population throws
caution to the wind and begins interacting again not worried about the
consequences. After the lull period, the second wave began which was worse than
the first.
Donnie is
the consummate showman a carnival barker of the tallest order. Trump says the
high number of cases are a “great tribute to the testing.” The function of
this statement is to weave the narrative that the US testing program is in full
swing and the best in the world. The testing is coming up to speed, finally,
after over two months of Trump dragging his feet while at the same time
repeating the narrative that “anyone that wants a test can have a test.” It has
been a comical two-month lie.
Trump keeps
repeating the lie about testing because when the tests are ramped-up fully he
will reach back and say, see, I told all of you that the testing program was
fine and the best in the world. Then he will say all those detractors over the
last two months were wrong and reporting “fake news.” Don’t you love the
country for what it has become? Donnie will then rewrite the entire narrative
around testing and boast during the campaign that no one can handle testing better than his orange head.
As of this
writing, any American that wants a test still cannot receive a test. First, you
must jump through hoops talking to doctors or nurse practitioners that then
deem you as qualified, or not, for a test. These protocols are in place because
of test rationing due to an ongoing shortage of tests. The medical folks
determine who receives a test and who does not as Trump lies each day telling
you to your face that you can get a test anytime if you want one. This is the confusing and chaotic America.
It gets
better. The CDC now says the data on testing is problematic. The number of
tests assigned to testing for the virus versus testing for antibodies is in
disarray now introducing new potential errors in providing direction to the
public.
The new and
main worry on testing is accuracy. The quick Abbott test was exposed as
producing as many as 1 in 8 false negatives (people were told they were not
infected but they were). Other data is worse but of course Abbott defends its
test and blames the people performing the procedure.
Big pharma
is making big bucks off the COVID-19 nightmare. Think about it. Big pharma is
released from liability by the US government and given a limitless budget to
spend. King Donnie bestows a $1.2 billion bag of money to AstraZeneca to
fast-track a virus vaccine. What a racket. How many friends of Donnie own AZN
stock that will happily forward some more cash to his reelection campaign on the news? One
hand washes the other in crony capitalism. Pharma is making huge profits to
produce drugs to combat coronavirus but if the drugs prove unsafe, big pharma
cannot be sued for damages. Isn’t America great (for the wealthy elite class) and
getting greater every day?
On
Wednesday, 5/20/20, President Trump is blaming President Xi for the global
pandemic. Trump says, “China’s disinformation and propaganda attack on the US
and Europe is a disgrace…it all comes from the top.” US Senate passes a bill to
scrutinize Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. American money is
backing and pushing the communist companies to the top of the world stage. The
greedy elite class in America only cares about using the crony capitalism
system to boost their stock portfolios.
On Thursday,
5/21/20, the global coronavirus cases top 5 million another grim milestone. The WHO says the number of
new COVID-19 cases jump over 100K in the last day. The number of deaths in the
United States tops 95K on its way to 100K.
600 doctors
sign a petition that says Americans can go back to work. Of course they do.
Dollars to doughnuts they are all republicans touting the Republican Tribe’s
talking points. Of course they are. Give it a few days and the democrats will release
a list with 700 doctors that say the opposite. No wonder Americans continue to
abandon and avoid the stink of these two corrupt political tribes, the
demopublicans and republocrats, in favor of being independent.
All 50
states in America have reopened their economies to one degree or another and most
citizens are donning masks when out in public. The women would not understand
that men are more averse to wearing ‘mouth diapers’. President Trump’s face mask
drama continues. The mask side plot occurring during the reality television show
presidency involves King Donnie’s refusal to wear a mask because he does not
want to be photographed. Vanity controls this Whitehouse showman; image is
everything to Trump. The president does not want to be seen donning a mouth
diaper although it is an ideal catch basket for his verbal diarrhea each day.
In general, some men view wearing a mask as a sign of
weakness and submissiveness. The privileged class do not have to wear masks
since they perceive themselves as smarter, cleaner and better humans than the
great unwashed huddled masses that crawl around on the ground below them each
day.
The press confronts the president for not wearing a mask at a
visit to the Ford plant. Trump quickly responds saying he had it on in the back
area; the same thing he said two prior times at other locations. Hilariously, Trump is holding his blue mouth diaper, that displays the imprinted presidential
seal, in his small hands saying it is a “nice mask,” and a quality mask, but he
is not putting it on. It is assumed that the president did not wear a mask at
all at the plant but comically, a photo is released of President Trump wearing
the blue mask. Yes, his worst fears are realized. Trump looks like an idiot in
a mask just like the rest of the population. Trump did have a mask on in the Ford
plant which is mandatory. Due to Donnie’s daily spewing of half-truth’s and
lies, one simply assumed he did not wear a mask at all but he actually did.
The Whitehouse does not comment on the photograph of Trump wearing a face mask. It
appears that it may have been taken by a smartphone perhaps by an employee. The president
is exposed wearing his blue cloth mouth diaper. It is only funny and worthy of
laughter since Trump fought wearing a mask every step of the way while telling
other Americans they have to wear a mask. What silly stuff but it is the bread
and circus days after all.
The coronavirus tragedy has morphed into a red state
(republicans) versus blue state (democrats) baby game. If you are for Trump, a
conservative, a republican, you are against masks and want all facets of the economy
to open immediately. If you are against Trump, a liberal, a democrat, you
champion the use of masks and want the economy to open at a slower and more cautious
and measured pace. The independents shake their heads in disgust at the two
corrupt political parties.
Trump attacks democrat governors, the Michigan governor is a
favorite target since the president is going to need Michigan to win reelection,
but they are doing the same things as the republican governors. Mail-in voting
is a right but Trump is criticizing any state providing ballots and information
because he believes mail-in voting is fraught with fraud and only benefits
democrats (data does not support this claim). Trump is a divisive petty man
just like former President Obama; narcissism and inflated self-worth’s are
traits of all the presidents.
The president is asked about the planning for a potential second
coronavirus wave. Trump proclaims, “We will put out the fires….. but we are not
closing the country.” The president is all-in at restarting the economy. If a second
virus wave hits it is all due to his actions at reopening the economy and his
reelection bid will suffer. If the virus cases remain in check, and that US
active cases bell curve continues to flatten and then roll over in a week or
two, Trump will have bragging rights for a good decision to restart the economy
and his path to reelection will be easier.
Trump is taking China to task more each day. Donnie bragged
for over three years that “Xi is my friend” but that does not appear the case
anymore. Trump needs people to blame and China is number one, as it should be.
The president was touting the greatest of Dictator Xi at handling the virus situation
well into March less than two months ago. That changed fast. With Donnie, if
you can do something for him or cover his tracks, you are the greatest person
and your intelligent is vast but if you cross him, do not do what he asks, disagree
with him or are otherwise unwilling to get involved in his daily reality
television show, he will call you a piece of garbage and trash and try to destroy your career. It is fun to
watch, it’s entertainment, but not constructive for the nation.
The filthy
communist China leadership meets for the National People’s Congress (NPC) that
decides the economic and government plan forward. Trump says Xi is behind a
propaganda attack against the US and Europe. The Chinese foreign minister
argues that US leadership is sending the US and China into a cold war. Screw
China. They purposely unleashed a bioweapon on the world. Remember, since few
read history books anymore, cold wars lead to shooting wars.
Studies are
showing that about 95% of the over 325K deaths in the world would not have
occurred if China would have prevented people flying out of Wuhan. China
screwed the world no doubt about it and continue the cover-up. Humorously,
China says they will cooperate with an international investigation and allow
access to areas but not now (they are still destroying the evidence). The
hashtag #ChinaLiedPeopleDied remains popular around the world. China needs to
make the world whole for their dastardly virus deed. The communist bastards
must be held accountable by a consortium of all other nations on earth.
NIH Doctor
Birx says infections and deaths are declining. The US active cases bell curve
is finally flattening over the last three days. The infections are still
increasing albeit at a slower rate. The strain on America’s healthcare workers
will lessen now that the active cases bell curve is flattening and lessen noticeably
in a week or two. Trump’s gamble on restarting the economy may pay off; the
next few days are critical. One-third of the deaths in America are at nursing
homes.
Trump targets
the CDC and Dr Redfield for screwing-up testing which created a delay and this
is what Trump will blame if people ask him why testing took so long. The CDC is
the gang that could not shoot straight the latest problem is their data
reporting on testing which appears to contain errors. America is the land of
mediocrity. Decades ago all work was performed at an excellent level; not
anymore, middling and mediocre is good enough nowadays for the US.
The so-called
brilliant scientists and doctors, perhaps clueless is a better word?, now
proclaim that the virus does not spread from hard surfaces or animals. There is
great fear about receiving packages or interacting with Whiskers, the family
cat that spends time outside, but all that worry was needless. Folks are
carrying around their little bottles of hand sanitizer but are realizing that
the alcohol content may explode in a hot car when hit directly by sunlight.
American
rights are stripped away like after 911 with the passage of the Patriot Act
which was simply an excuse for the CIA, FBI, NSA and other agencies to spy on
Americans with or without due cause. For this ongoing virus fiasco, politicians
now decide which business will live and which will die. They decree that Wal-Mart
as an essential business, where many hundreds of people pass through a store
daily, picking up and putting down the China-made items, while they will not permit the Ma and
Pa store on main street, that has limited customers and can more easily
administer to individual safety and consumer needs, to open. Crony capitalism
rules the US even in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The small
businesses are crushed while the large companies are boosted higher. Do you
understand the way that crony capitalism works in America? Fortunately, the end
of crony capitalism is at hand and the US will morph into a fairer government
over the coming years that provides opportunities for the poor and
disadvantaged instead of the elite class using a rigged system to rape America
and screw the huddled masses. All ism’s throughout history do not last beyond
200 to 250 years so the US is overdue.
China lowers the boom on Hong Kong passing legislation to
permanently pull the region under mainland communist rule. The one-country,
two-systems, policy was always a joke. Bend over Hong Kong. The Beijing
communist leadership wants you to kneel and kiss their feet. They have the guns
so they make the rules. Hong Kong loses.
On Saturday, 5/23/20, President Trump visits one of his golf
clubs. In true baby fashion, he and his spokespeople refuse to say whether
Donnie is golfing today. There is no need to since he is filmed riding in a car
donning a polo shirt and his lucky golf cap so King Donnie is golfing as the
total deaths in America approach 100,000 people. At the same time, the New York
Times devotes the front page of the paper to honoring the victims of
coronavirus which is seriously absent in the United States. 1,000 names are
listed with short obituaries and there are 100 times those deaths and stories.
Meanwhile, Trump yells, “Fore” off the fifth tee.
Trump has difficulty showing empathy and compassion which is
a problem since the leader of the country has to create that vibe of respect
for those that have fallen to COVID-19. But, more importantly in Donnie’s mind,
he does not want sad and negative news on the wires with his reelection only 21
weeks away; he wants happy talk instead like reopening the economy. Hey, those
100K people were mostly old sick folks anyway.
Trump’s latest soap box comment is on reopening the houses of
worship. He says America “needs Prayer’ and he is correct about that. Once the
coronavirus situation became muddled, chaotic and confusing, Trump dumped the
responsibility for the matter onto the states and their governors. That way
Donnie can criticize and blame the states for the virus mess while he says
everything he has done has enormously helped all of mankind. You know the Donnie
schtick by now.
King Donnie decrees that all houses of worship are
“essential” and must immediately reopen. Trump proclaims that if a governor
does not heed his edict, he will step in and “override” the situation. Trump
has no legal authority to override the states; it is simply more of Donnie’s
blowhard bluster. Humorously, both republican and democrat governors ignore the
president’s decree. Obviously, they have states to run which are currently a
mess and there is no time for baby games.
Several severe COVID-19 outbreaks occurred over the last
couple months after church congregations gathered to celebrate mass. The states
are not anxious to create new covid hotspots at churches. In addition, US
religious leaders such as rabbi’s, priests, ministers, etc…, are urging caution
rather than welcoming the president’s latest proclamation. It is difficult to
take Donnie seriously when he says open the churches on his way to the seventh
tee.
Trump is videotaped on the golf course so he waves to the
camera knowing the cat is out of the bag. The liberal-leaning news outlets such
as CNN and MSNBC are pounding home the narrative that 100,000 Americans have
died from the virus and instead of acknowledging this grave statistic and
providing empathy and comfort to the nation, Trump is out golfing. It is true. The video
also shows no one in Trump’s group wearing a mask or following social
distancing guidelines. The Donnie Show is a daily soap opera of drama designed
to keep the voters entertained until the November election. That is when Donnie hopes his reality television show presidency will be extended another four years.
The republicans wince at Trump’s daily antics but put up
with and defend the oddities because of one sole reason; judges. Trump’s legacy
is placing a huge number of conservative judges within the US court system. These
judges will be on the Federal and state benches for years and decades to come
influencing all future legislation and laws. This is why republicans defend
Trump’s sometimes disturbing actions and comments; they look at the end game
which is judges. In back rooms, the republicans laugh and poke fun at the
orange-headed clown but in public they praise the narcissist and stroke his
ego. The republicans want to stack the courts in every way possible. This is
Trump’s use to the Republican Party. Donnie is okay with this because his goal
is to be in the limelight each day; he is an entertainer.
A Missouri hair stylist tests positive for covid and she has
been in physical contact with 150 people over the last couple days. Churches
are afraid this will happen to their congregations if they open too early. Rental
car company Hertz files for bankruptcy protection. The bankruptcies will only
increase as the year proceeds.
Looking back at 9-11, the outpouring of national pride and
concern was remarkable. Citizens immediately began hanging American flags from
their homes and every other car had a flag waving from a vehicle window. 3,000
Americans died at the hands of the filthy Middle East terrorists on that
fateful day.
For COVID-19, at 100K deaths, over 30 times the deaths of 9-11,
Americans simply do not have the national pride displayed during 2001 and 2002.
People are staying at home worried about getting the virus and more concerned
about their personal entertainment spending time on Facebook and Amazon and watching
Netflix movies and Google’s (Alphabet) YouTube videos.
Memorial Day is upon us in the United States. This year we
not only show respect and admiration for all our armed forces that died in
foreign wars, but also to the 100,000 Americans cut down in life by China’s Wuhan
virus. The dirtbag Chinese communists have changed the world forever.
Note Added 4:37 AM EST on Monday, 5/25/20, Memorial Day: Best wishes to all the families that have experienced fallen soldiers. President Trump stops all travel from Brazil to America due to the coronavirus outbreak. South Africa is going to try to restart its economy knowing that the virus is in full swing; they feel they have no choice. China warns the United States that individuals within President Trump's inner circle (Secretary of State Pompeo) are playing a "dangerous" game with US-China relations and risk a cold war. In truth, America and China are already in a cold war after the communists released the Wuhan virus on the world. US markets are closed today. S&P futures are up +15.
Note Added 5:58 AM EST on Monday, 5/25/20, Memorial Day: S&P futures are up +30. The market euphoria continues. The stock market complacency and lack of fear is rampant as verified by the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios (a dramatic stock market pullback is likely on tap beginning any day ahead). There are 99,300 coronavirus deaths in the United States. President Trump is scheduling a tee time. The president places a travel ban on Brazil due to the virus. Brazil is added to the ongoing travel ban on citizens from China, Iran and 30 European countries. The US only allows essential travel with Canada and Mexico. Protesters form at the gates of the Whitehouse chanting, "Stop killing us." President Trump makes fun of democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden for wearing a black face mask. Donnie doesn't wear a mouth diaper. Even face masks are split along the democrat and republican tribal lines. CNN reports that 80% of the coronavirus deaths are 65 years old and older and 80% of the coronavirus cases are people under 65 years old. The Fed says 40% of the people unemployed make less than $40,000 per year. Twitter fact checks a tweet from the president concerning his claim that mail-in voting is fraught with fraud. Twitter says they cannot find proof of this so they flagged the tweet. Trump goes ballistic since Twitter is his favorite platform for informing the public. He despises the press and does not want to communicate through them like the past presidents.
Note Added Tuesday, 5/26/20: The US COVID-19 deaths surpass 100K; it is a sad day, in May. 100,468 US citizens have fallen to the coronavirus. Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected over 5.7 million people around the world murdering over 350,000 souls. 2.4 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened over 1.72 million Americans murdering 100.5K United States citizens. 477K have recovered. China claims to have tested 6.6 million people in the Wuhan region in 12 days; 1.5 million in one day. A 'pool testing' technique is used where samples are gathered together not one sample and if negative that is good enough. If positive, then those people are contacted and retested to find the individual/s infected. A poll in America indicates that 75% will not take the virus vaccine if it becomes available. If only 25% will take the vaccine, it remains a long road to herd immunity at plus 60%. The CDC says the antibody tests may be wrong one-half the time. They are the gang that couldn't shoot straight. WHO is corrupt. The NIH has poor judgement. The virus tragedy is handled by the Three Stooges.
Note Added Wednesday, 5/27/20: Dr Fauci says iti s "quite evident" that hdroxychloroquine is not helping patients to any great extent. France is outlawing its use since their data indicates it is of no help. Trump has been taking the drug daily but that is doubtful; it is likely only more bluster from the showman. At 6:30 PM EST, the Johns-Hopkins coronavirus data surpasses 100K with a major portion of deaths in New York the epicenter of the outbreak in America.
