The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected over 4.4 million people around the world murdering 297,000 (almost 300K). One-quarter of a million people lay dead on the planet at the hand of China’s deadly virus. 1.6 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened over 1.4 million Americans (0.4% of the 330 million US population) murdering 85K United States citizens. 308K have recovered.

1 in every 250 Americans are sickened by Wuhan’s COVID-19. One-third of the world’s coronavirus cases and over one-fourth of the total deaths are in the United States. China unleashed horror and mayhem on the world; 186 other countries to be exact. Needless to say, the communists will not be invited to the springtime jubilee this year. Recent polls indicate that about two-thirds of Americans are unhappy with and dislike China up from about one-half of Americans a year ago (the Trump trade war bred a lot of hostility between the two nations and now the coronavirus situation has exacerbated the ugliness).

There are two significant ongoing problems with the coronavirus. First, the Wuhan Flu is super-contagious. The six-foot (2 m) social distancing is an arbitrary measure based on the virus droplets dropping down harmlessly from the person talking normally. However, coughs can project germs for long distances even 25 feet (8 m) away and China is maintaining a nine-foot (3 m) social distance. Second, the asymptomatic nature of China’s coronavirus allows the disease to pass stealthily among the human population. People that are infected, but do not show signs of the virus, have spread the virus. From a war perspective, coronavirus is an ideal bioweapon capable of killing-off and incapacitating a society or country without destroying the infrastructure.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided and tweaked since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 7 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This seventh article is published on Thursday, 5/14/20, and the next article, number eight in the series, is tentatively slated for publishing on Sunday, 5/24/20.

The first article in the coronavirus series is USCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; FederalReserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP andAnnouncing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; CoronavirusArchive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active CasesPeaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly JobsReport; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases ContinueRising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headedfor Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (ModernMonetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; CoronavirusArchive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus SuccessStories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexicoand Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective Equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as NewVirus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68KAmericans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing DeficienciesContinue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell thisMonth; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts above are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

TKSCIRM forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. Major trouble is ahead when the ‘number of new coronavirus cases are increasing’ especially through the initial exponential expansion phase. The ‘daily new virus cases’ are typically shown in a bar chart format. The first thing to watch for with the Keystone Model is ‘when the daily new cases begin leveling-off typically into a choppy sideways move’. It is key that the ‘new cases level-off and begin drifting sideways lower since this will eventually create the top in the active cases curve which is the bell curve’.

The active case curve represents the maximum strain on the medical personnel and the hope for all countries is that this curve flattens out and then rolls over to the downside (the top of the bell chart pattern forms and the virus cases begin dropping forming the right side of the bell). Thus, the two key charts are the new case barchart and the active case bell curve.

PSA (Public Service Announcement): The term “flattening the curve” specifically references the active cases bell curve not the new case barchart. The media, the public and even officials on television are misusing the terms. For example, Governor Cuomo in New York says the curve is flattening. Wrong. The new cases have peaked and rolled over lower and continue lower and sure, throw a bone to Andrew, he is correct to say that bar chart curve flattened and rolled over, however, that is not the curve to watch when the term “flattening the curve” is touted; instead it is the active case curve. The peak of the active case bell curve represents the maximum strain on the healthcare facilities and workers but the top of the bell curve is not known until it happens.

For New York, the active case curve continues higher. In other words, the strain on the state’s medical systems continues without rest or improvement. The daily increases are slowing but if you are in a ward and treating say 50 patients a day, and a couple weeks later it is 49 patients, and maybe a couple weeks after that 48, you will not even notice that change. The right side of the bell curve in active cases must appear so you are 100% sure that the worst is over, and you will also see drastic drops in patient numbers. It is hoped that people would use the term “flattening the curve” properly but when you have a political official like Cuomo misusing the term daily, it will remain a confusing mess and misunderstood by the general population.

TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the next four days are watched to see if the new cases have peaked-out and are beginning a sideways leveling-off pattern, or, if the new cases will print a new high again. If the new cases remain lower than the peak new case date for four days after the peak, this date is the Confirmation Date and always represents five days of sideways behavior including the peak date. This is an excellent development and means that the active case bell curve will then peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

Once the Confirmation Date is identified, 23 days are added to this date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date (top of bell curve) or simply think of it as 28 days past the New Case Peak Date. There is a choice of three time periods to apply depending If the country or region is well prepared with a pandemic plan, and if testing procedures and supplies are available, and if stay-at-home and lock-down measures for the population are implemented and enforced quickly, or, if the country is ill-prepared, or, if it is a state in the US.

South Korea, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Israel, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China are the success stories thus far. These nations and regions have the best pandemic plans and testing protocols and reached their Active Case Peak Dates, on average, only 11 days after the New Case Peak Date. These countries with extensive testing programs were able to identify and quarantine infected individuals quickly leading to a faster resolution of the pandemic in that region.

Conversely, countries less prepared, and those that took the initial COVID-19 threat less seriously, are still playing catch-up. Since the success stories are over their peak active caseloads (past the peak in the bell curve and now on the downside) and were the only ones prepared for a pandemic, all other nations can be assumed to take far longer than the 11-day average between the New Case Peak Date and Active Case Peak Date.

In fact, it takes 28 days or almost three times longer, past the New Case Peak Date, as per the Keystone Model, for the active case bell curve to peak for the less-prepared countries. This is disturbing since President Trump’s criteria for reopening the economy is 14 days past the new case peak date. On 4/24/20, the new coronavirus cases in America hit an all-time high but sadly, the active case curve continues higher (after a little stutter-step shown in the chart above).

The third time period that can be applied to project the active case peak date is for the states in the United States. On average, thus far, a state will peak-out in active cases 20 days after the New Case Peak Date. This is discussed below.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model identifies the New Case Peak Date (peak in new infections), then makes sure the new cases are truly leveling-off with the Confirmation Date (five days of flat or lower new cases). The next step can go three ways depending on whether the country or region was prepared for a pandemic, or not, and also if it is a US state. First, for the countries that were well-prepared and had adequate testing and other virus-preventive measures quickly in place, add 11 days to the New Case Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date (top of bell curve).

Second, if a country or region was not well-prepared for a pandemic, had a poor testing program and had to do a lot of scrambling for PPE (US, Italy, France, etc..), add 28 days past the New Case Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date.

Third, for the states in the United States (New York, Texas, California, etc…), add 20 days past the New Case Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Case Peak Date for that individual state.

The active case bell curves have peaked for the following nations that are on their way to better days ahead (barring a second wave). There are, however, a couple of flies in the covid ointment. In South Korea, a hotspot develops around a nightclub area where gays frequent. Over 100 people became infected and some have passed covid onto their loved ones with cases soaring to 140. South Korea takes a step back and will reassess opening bars and restaurants. It is difficult to track people down because many do not want stigmatized and outed for having frequented a gay hangout.

There are also new virus cases occurring in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of this global coronavirus nightmare, although you can never trust anything the lying communists say. The new cases likely never stopped in China. China plans to test all 11 million Wuhan citizens over a 10-day period; that would be a miraculous feat if they pull it off. There are also mini-outbreaks along the Russia and North Korea borders. North Korea is tight-lipped about fighting the virus.

Russia is in shambles from the virus but Dictator Putin puffs out his chest proclaiming all is well and it is time to restart the economy. Something very bad may happen in Russia going forward (social unrest or perhaps a staged terrorism event to distract citizens and create national unity, etc….). Russia is now second to the United States in total coronavirus cases.

China (Active Case Peak Date 2/17/20) (13 days after New Case Peak Date) (data is suspect)

South Korea (Active Case Peak Date 3/11/20) (8 days)

Switzerland (Active Case Peak Date 3/21/20) (11 days)

Australia (Active Case Peak Date 4/4/20) (13 days)

Germany (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (10 days)

Taiwan (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (17 days)

Hong Kong (Active Case Peak Date 4/7/20) (9 days)

Israel (Active Case Peak Date 4/16/20) (14 days)

Italy (Active Case Peak Date 4/19/20) (30 days)

Ireland (Active Case Peak Date 4/20/20) (10 days)

Turkey (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (13 days)

Spain (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (29 days)

France (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (26 days)

Japan (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (18 days)

Canada (Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (18 days)

Portugal (Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (31 days)

Belgium (Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (28 days)

Singapore (Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (23 days)

Note the two clusters with days above. The well-prepared countries peaked-out on their bell curves in the 8 to 14 day period from New Case Peak Date to Active Case Peak Date (the top of the bell curve flattening the curve). The less-prepared nations need 17 to 31 days of time to peak-out with active cases. The individual states in America need 20 days of time past the New Case Peak Date to arrive at the Active Case Peak Date (below). Much of Asia and Europe has worked through the initial pandemic horror and are on the downside of the active case curves.

Below are countries and regions listed that were not well-prepared for the coronavirus outbreak and are expected to follow the path of Italy, Spain and France with the peak in active cases projected as 28 days beyond the new case peak date. These nations are not out of the woods yet but if they continue what they have been doing, the strain on their respective medical systems should peak over the next couple weeks. The United States reopening businesses may jeopardize the positive outcome.

America is reopening its economy. 48 states are in some stage of restarting their economies. The US active case bell curve hinted that it was peaking-out a couple days ago but boom, a higher high in active cases is once again occurring with the top of the bell curve still not in sight as the chart above shows. President Trump is restarting the economy when the US active case chart has not yet flattened. In other words, the load on healthcare facilities continues to increase daily in the US, but forget that, let’s all have a beer, hug, sing songs and jam-out together. It’s par-tay time. Since Americans have only started to comingle again over the last few days, wait for the virus incubation period to pass, over the next week or two, to note the change in new cases. King Donnie will be correct if the new cases remain the same and trend lower. The president’s detractors and health officials, that urge more caution, will be vindicated if the new cases jump higher. Each day’s data is important.

Note that despite Sweden’s experiment in herd immunity, and the US going the other way with the lockdown stay-at-home rules, both countries are in the same place. In Sweden, they are being less restrictive and open to herd immunity playing out, but most folks are staying home and self-isolating anyway. Sweden is a bit of a social distance country to begin with so this is not as hard on them as other nations. In the US, where folks are told to stay home, many are venturing out anyway since it is in the American culture to be a bit rebellious and question authority. Thus, they both meet in the same place coming from different sides.

If the US would have only waited another two weeks to restart the economy, the active cases are set to peak any day forward, that would have greatly increased the chances of success. However, people are out and about already so it may have been too premature to restart the economy. We will know over the coming days from the new cases bar charts. You feel for the business owners since their lives are tied up into a business that may have very well disintegrated overnight.

United States (North America)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection days on 4/8/20 and 4/30/20 but 4/24/20 is worse)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (28 days past the New Case Peak Date)

Sweden (North Europe)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (heavy infection days on 4/8/20 and 4/30/20 but 4/24/20 is worse)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Ecuador (South America)

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date (blew away the prior 4/10/20 date)

4/28/20 Confirmation Date

5/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Below are the countries that were not as well prepared for the coronavirus outbreak, and greatly resisted preventive measures, and still do, and/or were too slow to respond with government action; in other words, the worst possible outcomes by all measures. These nations face continued coronavirus trouble ahead as they scrounge for PPE and their governments, like the rest of them above, lie to the masses;

Philippines (Asia)

3/31/20 New Case Peak Date (data is suspect and unreliable)

4/4/20 Confirmation Date

4/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (as of 5/13/20 the active case chart continues higher)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

UK (Europe)

4/10/20 New Case Peak Date

4/14/20 Confirmation Date

5/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (as of 5/13/20 the active case chart continues higher)

May the lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Brazil (South America)

5/6/20 New Case Peak Date

5/10/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Nigeria (the African continent faces an epic human tragedy)

5/8/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)

5/12/20 Confirmation Date

6/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

India (South Asia)

5/10/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)

5/14/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

Russia (Eastern Europe and North Asia)

5/11/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are elevated)

5/15/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls

The countries below remain in deep trouble call it COVID-19 Hell. They cannot find the way out and pray for a savior. Central and South America, Latin America, is a hot spot with lots of suffering on tap ahead. As always, and it is currently happening, Africa is screwed, and the continent is in trouble now. Asia is not completely out of the virus quagmire with fears of a second wave increasing as per the China and South Korea situations. The island nations of Philippines and Indonesia are in bad shape.

Mexico (North America)

5/13/20 New Case Peak Date (5/8/20 also a big day) (cases are escalating daily)

5/17/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with New Cases Sky-Rocketing

Peru (South America)

5/13/20 New Case Peak Date (4/13/20 and 4/25/20 were also bad) (cases are escalating daily)

5/17/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with New Cases Sky-Rocketing

Chile (South America)

5/13/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/17/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with New Cases Sky-Rocketing

Indonesia (Southeast Asia)

5/13/20 New Case Peak Date (4/12/20, 4/14/20, 4/17/20, 4/28/20 and 5/1/20 huge days) (cases are escalating daily)

5/17/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with New Cases Sky-Rocketing

South Africa (the African continent faces an epic human tragedy)

5/13/20 New Case Peak Date (cases are escalating daily)

5/17/20 Projected Confirmation Date

6/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with New Cases Sky-Rocketing

For the individual states in the United States, the picture is mixed but overall not pretty. States such as Florida, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Ohio show a peak in their active case bell curves which is good news but caution is warranted since the data is subject. A robust testing program is only now underway in the US so the data may jump around for a couple weeks. Texas is in the worst shape followed by California, New Jersey and New York. There are other states of concern such as Michigan, Georgia, Maryland, Connecticut and Virginia but data is not available. The peak in the active case bell curve is projected to occur 20 days after the peak in new cases. Everything is tentative since the US is now in limbo wondering if the restarting of the economy leads to glorious happiness or long-term gloom, despair and agony, as the Hee-Haw gang would sing.

Louisiana

4/2/20 New Case Peak Date

4/23/20 Active Case Peak Date (21 days)

Florida

4/17/20 New Case Peak Date

5/11/20 Active Case Peak Date (24 days)

Ohio

4/19/20 New Case Peak Date

5/11/20 Active Case Peak Date (22 days)

Massachusetts

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date
5/12/20 Active Case Peak Date (18 days)

Pennsylvania

4/24/20 New Case Peak Date

5/11/20 Active Case Peak Date (17 days)

New York

4/15/20 New Case Peak Date

5/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (as of 5/14/20, the curve moves higher for 30 days past the New Case Peak Date)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with the Active Case Curve Continuing Higher

New Jersey

4/16/20 New Case Peak Date (also 4/3/20, 4/4/20, 4/14/20 and 4/23/20 big days)

5/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (as of 5/14/20, the curve moves higher for 29 days past the New Case Peak Date)

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with the Active Case Curve Continuing Higher

California

5/9/20 New Case Peak Date (also 4/29/20 and 5/5/20 big days)

6/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with the Active Case Curve Continuing Higher Likely into June

Texas

5/13/20 New Case Peak Date

6/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls with the Active Case Curve Continuing Higher Likely into June

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active case curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 20 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve, and maximum strain on healthcare facilities, will occur.

Texas is running full-force into restarting its economy but it may be running into a buzzsaw. Of the data available, the Keystone Model rates the Lone Star state as the worst. Texas virus deaths and new cases continue hitting record highs. California and Texas, and probably New York and New Jersey, will likely not peak-out on the active case bell curve until June. The worrisome aspect is folks are out and about enjoying Texas barbecue or dancing at the local bar where ‘there’s some bad honky-tonker’s really layin’ it down’, like Stevie Ray, but the data, and chart above, continues to show a heavy strain on medical services (no peak in the active case bell curve). Texans better hope their gamble at reopening the economy pays off; the data is not in their favor and that chart looks scary.

New York and New Jersey, that had a peak in new cases in mid-April, continue struggling to find a way to flatten the active case curve. The chart above shows New York’s active cases continuing to rise albeit slightly. The top of the bell curve has yet to occur. Interestingly, the death rate curve is starting to flatten which would not be expected with the active case curve continuing higher. This indicates that there are more lower middle class, poor, disadvantaged, disabled and ethnic folks (blacks and Latinos are impacted worse by the coronavirus) in the metro cities that remain sick for a longer period of time but they do not necessarily die. There are likely more elderly as well. New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania have strong senior populations. The elderly are dying at nursing homes where the virus spreads like widlfire. One-third of the New York virus deaths are in nursing homes. This outcome is taxing on the medical facilities and will remain a battle until the active case bell curves flatten and roll over.

For the US, there are 24 states that are experiencing less new virus cases daily. 9 states are seeing a continued increase in new cases. 17 states are showing a sideways pattern in new cases. Georgia and Florida are busy reopening their economies and happily the new cases in the Peach State are down -12%. JJ Cale loved thoseGeorgia peaches, they always made him feel right at home. Florida cases drop -15% as the Sunshine State reopens. Keep the fingers crossed over the coming days as you watch the new case data.

Despite the relaxed rules about reopening businesses in Georgia and Florida, most folks chose to stay at home remaining vigilant against the Chinese killer virus. This explains why the numbers in the two states are improving and not headed south after the reopening of the economy. Conversely, Texas, is on the other side of the spectrum where businesses are allowed to reopen and folks have gone wild immediately returning to pre-virus social fun. This par-tay and government-opposing atmosphere in Texas is placing thousands of people in close proximity to one another, some not wearing masks. So it does not matter how an economy is reopened by the governor, or by decree from King Donnie, or what rules are laid out, the people themselves in these specific regions are deciding if they think it is safe to venture out, or not. In Texas they are more adventurous and free-willed, so they are getting sick more. In Georgia and Florida, especially the Sunshine State since it is heavily-populated with seniors, the virus case numbers slowly improve since these folks are playing it safe choosing to remain home even though the business rules are relaxed. Texans are raising beer-filled red solo cups of good cheer enjoying a honky-tonk band (out partying) while Floridians are reaching for the bottle of Geritol as they eat a meatloaf dinner at 3 PM and plan to go to sleep for the evening at 4 PM (seniors are staying at home). It is not an encouraging sign for the economy that people want to stay at home and not venture out.

The US has started to reopen businesses under President Trump’s encouragement. The president does not think there will be an economy to go back to if everyone stays out of work so he is tossing the dice on the US economic craps table with American families in the balance. Donnie knows that if the new virus cases can hang steady and fall, he will look like a hero, and genius, for his decision to tell everyone to go back to work, even against many state governor’s orders, and reelection will be a cake walk. If, however, the second wave of virus pandemic mayhem and horror hits, Trump will look like an ignorant dolt that gambled away America’s future recklessly just as he sent his casino’s into bankruptcy years ago. The answer will be obvious in the days ahead in the new case data.

The Republican and Democrat Tribes are battling and bickering always placing their self-interest’s ahead of what is good for the American people. It is comical for the tribes and the tribal cheerleaders and radio and television sycophants, argue over restarting the economy. The two corrupt sides should take a chill pill, lay back Daddy-o, and allow the new case data to tell the story over the next week or two. The incubation period of the coronavirus will have run a cycle and the new cases will tell you if reopening the economy was a mistake, or a brilliant move.

As the November presidential election nears, the knives are out and many political agendas take hold. Trump has sent Dr Fauci, the lead doctor for the Whitehouse task force, to the kitchen to wash the dishes disliking and disagreeing with many of the NIH’s and CDC’s positions. Fauci warns about schools reopening but Trump says go ahead and open them. Fauci is not a fan of reopening the economy but Trump is forging full steam ahead. Fauci did not get the memo that he must massage and present his scientific comments in a manner so as not to disagree or challenge any of the president’s political messaging. Aren’t you glad that crony capitalism is on its last legs and will likely land in the dustbin of history over the coming few years? Donnie is beating-up on ‘lil Fauci, who is no angel himself, the operative word is WHO.

Trump is in attack mode against his democrat political opponent Joe Biden. Trump’s attorney general and others are digging-up evidence on the Flynn and Russia investigations claiming that former FBI director Comey and others, such as NIA’s Clapper and CIA’s Brennan, conspired to unseat or otherwise delegitimize Donald Trump’s election. Trump labels the scandal Obamagate and says the former president was directly involved but will not call out the crime. Politics is a dirty business and in truth all these people are corrupt on both sides. America is a corrupt two-party system. Kapish? Everything will likely be swept under the rug since both sides have dirt on each other and the tribes will likely agree to duke it out in the November election.

Biden appears as a weaker and weaker candidate each day. Joe is huddled in his basement, taking naps, occasionally waking up to wipe spit off his lip and comment on something from decades ago. Biden is handling a fondling sexual scandal and now the Flynn controversy as documents are released showing the former vice president in meetings on the matter and perhaps keeping President Obama informed. Perhaps powerful democrats are agreeable to forcing the dude out of the race. The democrat problem is that if Biden bows out, Bernie Sanders will want the top job and Trump will likely wipe the floor with him, at least that is the educated guess. The trick would be how the Democrat Tribe could ditch Joe and get someone else that is not Sanders.

More Americans see the daily corruption in both tribes. This is evidenced by the ranks of the independents growing year after year. 20 years ago, the US was 45% democrat, 45% republican and 10% independent. Now this is 35% democrat, 35% republican and 30% independent. Many Americans no longer want to be associated with either corrupt tribe. For the presidential election in only 23 weeks, the die-hard progressives will vote in lock-step with automatically 35% for Biden. Likewise, the radical conservative right will vote in lock-step with automatically 35% for Trump. Of the independents, about 10% lean towards the Democrat Tribe and about 10% lean towards the Republican Tribe. Thus, after all this ciphering, that 10% of independents in the middle are the ones that will choose the next president.

On the economic front, 36.5 million Americans have filed for unemployment since mid-March. Great Depression redux. Trump surmises that he has no choice but to force a start of the economy since it will be in complete shambles if the status quo continues, and he may be correct. The orange-headed showman knows that his future is riding on the new case data over the coming days.

Businesses are opening but the very few customers are moaning at the service fees. Companies are starting to charge sanitation fees, and PPE fees. Businesses are trying to boost the bottom line adding a line item on bills called the “COVID surcharge.” Everyone is in the same virus boat so the extra fees are not popular. It is easy to see that the expected sharp recovery in the economy is fantasyland. A better plan forward can be developed once it is known if the new cases will spike higher, or not, over the coming days.

Trump accuses the democrat state governors and democrats in general of wanting to keep the economy closed so he will lose the election. That is a low-life statement to make. There are just as many democrat business owners as republicans and they all want to get back to work as well. The adolescent-style disparaging remarks do not help the situation but Donnie is as divisive a president as Barrack was. All of them are the same.

Businesses are going bankrupt and that will likely continue over the next year. Neiman Marcus closed its doors. J Crew is another loser. Hertz, the rent-a-car company, that trades under the HTZ symbol, is on the verge of insolvency. JC Penney, JCP ticker, is on tap to declare bankruptcy but is saved again by making a last-minute debt payment. Management lifted the sofa cushions in the furniture department to retrieve loose change and put it towards their survival. As far as bankruptcies go, ‘you ain’t seen nothing yet’, as BTO would belt.

US-China relations deteriorate. President Trump declares that Xi is his friend but he does not want to talk to him now. More baby talk; you're my friend but I hate you. China wants to renegotiate the phase one trade deal but Trump wants no part of that. This is standard procedure for China. They have done this on every past deal. Donnie, you did not actually think your deal was different, did you? The United States accuses China of hacking computer systems trying to steal information on the virus research especially vaccine work. Trump begins moves to cut Huawei, the second largest smartphone maker, from receiving chips from global suppliers due to security concerns. The semiconductor industry is punched in the face.

On Friday, 5/8/20, the US Monthly Jobs Report is a loss of 20.5 million jobs and an unemployment rate up to 14.7%. The numbers are much worse since the data is only through 5/12/20. The June jobs report on 6/5/20 will display further and perhaps deeper misery. The unemployment rate may hit 25% on par with the Great Depression. With the stimulus, however, some low-wage earners are making more money staying at home not working than if they returned to work subjecting themselves to the virus. Today’s jobs numbers across the board are the worst since the Great Depression. The Wuhan virus torpedoes the US economic ship.

President Trump’s valet that performs tasks for the Whitehouse is infected with covid. The president brushes off concern like flicking a piece of lint off his suit lapel. Vice President Pence’s aid and spokesperson, Katie Miller, is self-isolating after testing positive for the virus. Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter, says her assistant has the virus but they have not been in contact. COVID-19 is knocking at the Whitehouse door.

President Trump’s mask drama continues. It is a side plot during the reality television show presidency where Donnie continues to refuse to wear a mask because he does not want to be photographed. Vanity controls the Whitehouse showman. In general, some men view wearing a mask as a sign of weakness and submissiveness. Of course, the media, and even paparazzi, will follow Trump closely each person hoping to snap a photo of the orange-head donning a mask. Donnie loves it since it keeps you tuning into the reality television show each day to see what happens next; he must keep the ratings and views up into the November election. The privileged class do not have to wear masks since they perceive themselves as smarter, cleaner and better humans than the great unwashed huddled masses that crawl around beneath them each day.

On Saturday, 5/9/20, former President Obama, during a phone call with 3K participants, says the handling of the coronavirus situation is “an absolute chaotic disaster.” Obama pontificates that tribal politics and a ‘what-is-in-it-for-me’ attitude controls the decision-making. He says the rule of law is under threat. The comments are funny because Obama is being identified as orchestrating the Russian collusion investigation with partners in crime such as former FBI head Comey, Brennan and Clapper. As stated above, all these empty souls operating within the Washington DC beltway are corrupt.

Virus testing in the US remains subpar but it is finally getting to where it needs to be. The number of virus cases in the United States is steady with an increase in several states. America needs to identify anyone infected with covid and trace their contacts to test those people (but using non-Big Brother technology). The disease moves quickly and has zero respect for borders, ethnicities, ages, races or wealth class.

After four months, the testing program appears disorganized. The Abbott tests are producing false negatives 15% of the time. That means one in every eight people are being told they are okay when actually they are infected and should self-isolate. The healthcare workers are doing the best they can but the testing and tracking situation appears chaotic. Trump defends the Abbott test saying you can take it over and over to verify the result. Spoken like a rich dude. Who would pay for all those extra tests?

The doctors do not know how the virus is spreading. Infections in several countries are beginning to rise again striking fear that a second wave may appear a la the Spanish Flu pandemic. Children are becoming more infected with the virus with many kids exhibiting signs of Kawasaki disease.

President Trump continues lying about the testing program saying for over two months that anyone that wants a virus test can have one. It was not true in March and is not true now. You must first see a doctor or nurse practitioner and go through an evaluation process where they determine if a test will be given, or not. The US had to take this approach for many weeks since the tests available had to be rationed. America was not prepared. Rumor has it that Donnie’s inner circle has told him to back away from saying that anyone can have a test but he does not care. All politicians follow the Goebbels handbook where if you repeat a lie often enough, daily, over and over, people will end up accepting it as fact. And they really do.

The truth is that the US needs to conduct 300K to 500K tests per day going forward to begin to get a firm handle on coronavirus. America is now equipped to move into that 300K range but it took over two months to get here. Donnie knows that the testing will come up to speed at over 300K per day in the near future and at that time he will say the testing program was fine all along and any negative stories were fake news. You will forget Donnie's missteps because all you will remember is that anyone that wanted a test could get a test because Trump said this all the time. That's the Donnie modus operandi.

The disruptions at meat-packing plants and with food distribution lines continue. The packing plant closures are creating meat shortages while tragically at the same time animals have to be euthanized and wasted since the plants cannot butcher them. There are plans underway to test all employees for the virus and it is hoped this will build confidence and bring more workers back to the plants.

The CDC provides guidelines to the Whitehouse for reopening the economy but Trump nixes the work, dumping it into the virtual trash can, saying it is too detailed. The previous Whitehouse guidelines for restarting the economy are a joke. Many states are not seeing a 14-day decline in new cases but opening their economies anyway. The Whitehouse themselves are not following their own guidelines. The collective societal hubris demands that businesses reopen virus be damned; people must make a living. Let the chips fall where they may.

King Donnie continues proclaiming that his handling of the coronavirus tragedy is the best ever, he is the best ever, and every other country wants to follow the US lead. Sometimes you wonder what color the sky is in Donnie’s world. Trump receives about a C grade, average, for handling the virus situation so far. It is a Great Depression redux so there is only so much a president can do; he is likely doing about as well, and as poorly, as anyone else would. Secret service agents, that have worked at the Whitehouse, are now self-isolating. The coronavirus appears to be inside of the walls of the Whitehouse.

Dr Fauci, the NIH head, Dr Redman, the CDC head and Dr Stephen Hahn, the FDA head, each go into self-isolation after being exposed to people that have the virus. Isn’t that rich? The doctors handling the coronavirus tragedy are now in fear of contracting the virus themselves. Fauci says he will still appear at the Whitehouse but he will wear a mask. Again, the privileged elite modify the mask rules for themselves while they dictate different orders and guidelines to the peons. Fauci says he will follow a modified quarantine. It’s laughable. What is the difference between self-isolating, quarantine, modified quarantine and self-quarantine? Inquiring minds, and perhaps the American people, would like to know.

A couple days ago, the Whitehouse plays word games saying Pence is self-isolating and not in quarantine. No one knows the difference. Pence will likely continue Whitehouse duties. It is a confusing mess for Americans to follow. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari says the economic malaise will last a long time so more aid will be needed for common people. The UN says four years of global growth are wiped out. Dr Mike Ryan at WHO says the virus may be around forever like HIV. House Leader Pelosi proposes a $3 trillion spending package. US Retail Sales plummet -16.4% month-on-month the steepest decline ever recorded. Clothing sales collapse -90%.

The latest numbers indicate the Wuhan Flu has sickened nearly 4.5 million people around the world killing over 301K. The virus cases jump 1 million in the last two weeks. In the United States, coronavirus has sickened 1.44 million people killing over 86K.

Whistleblower Dr Rick Bright testifies before Congress saying he was forced out by the Trump administration after voicing several warnings about the virus, that were ignored. The president says Bright is a disgruntled employee. Bright fears that the next virus wave will be worse. Congress is troubled to learn that there is no plan in place to handle that event should it occur.

President Trump says Sanofi will preferentially provide virus vaccines, when ready at some time in the months ahead, to US citizens. Trump continues to say a vaccine will be available by the end of the year but he is talking out of his butt. A vaccine may achieve developmental success, perhaps even see approval in a fast-track process by year-end, however, it is fantasy to think that 330 million vaccines, that do not exist currently, will be ready within 28 weeks. “Good luck wit dat,” as they say in Brooklyn. Maybe Trump envisions himself as a bigtime leader making a bold statement such as when President Kennedy said we will go to the moon by the end of the decade. Who knows?

Interesting discussions are taking place among the world’s elite class over who will receive the vaccine first. The greedy bastards are already figuring out ways that they can use their money to acquire vaccines for themselves and their loved ones. Money talks. A virus vaccine may be available by year-end in an emergency use format so decisions will need to be made as to who receives the magic antidote. Obviously, the healthcare workers are front of mind including emergency service workers that come in contact with covid patients daily should receive a vaccine first, but dollars to doughnuts tells you the filthy rich will be finagling through back channels to acquire the vaccine and save their greedy asses. Humans are entertaining animals.

And so the coronavirus beat goes on. It is always best to look for some tasty humor to make tragedy more palatable. People are loyally following the mask and social distancing protocols. A lady in the supermarket the other day is wearing blue medical gloves and repeatedly picking her nose and clearing gunk from her eyes as she shops. A man, visibly uncomfortable with a mask, pushes it upwards and picks a sesame seed from between his teeth. Neanderthal males continue walking out of the Men’s Room without washing their hands. Cory sneezes into his elbow as instructed by the medical authorities (they say do not use your hand or fist to catch a sneeze or cough) and then greets Mona with an elbow hello, as instructed by the medical authorities.

Note Added Friday, 5/15/20, at 6:01 AM EST: French President Macron demands a meeting with Sanofi, which is scheduled for next week, to discuss the vaccine maker preferentially helping the United States. Everybody wants to live forever. If a vaccine is found, you can see country pitted against country, rich against poor, brother against brother, people fighting for that magic immunity and longevity pill, the Soylent Green of our day if you will. It has the makings of a great Twilight Zone episode. Humans turn into animals if without water for three days, and if without food for a month, or perhaps when a virus vaccine is produced in limited supply. It may take five years to develop a vaccine. It is hoped that one of the over 100 vaccine candidates will be proven successful over the coming months and year or two so it then can get into mass production, for those willing to take it. China continues pushing back on the growing global narrative that they took too long to warn the world of the coronavirus pandemic which allowed time to hoard supplies. The filthy commies say they warned the world of coronavirus on 1/19/20 only a day after they realized the super-contagious aspect of the virus. Liars. Never trust a communist. Italy announces plans to allow free movement within the boot-shaped nation starting June. Interestingly, and of concern, is that despite the three months of tragedy in Italy, only 1 in 10 people are estimated to have been exposed to the virus. COVID-19 has a fertile valley of humans available that have not yet been harvested.

Note Added Friday, 5/15/20, at 12:45 PM EST: President Trump begins speaking at the Whitehouse and Dr Fauci is standing behind him donning a mask. Donnie does not do masks. He is asked why he and some of the others on stage are not wearing masks. King Trump decrees that he does not wear a mask since he is tested each day. Donnie said he gave everyone the choice of whether they wanted to wear a mask or not. The stuff is hilarious. As usual, Trump spends the opening time telling everyone how great he is and how he is doing the best job, and no human in existence, or in entire recorded history, could do such a great job. Trump disputes Dr Bright’s claim that there is no future plan should the pandemic come in a second wave. Donnie says there is a “great plan.” Of course he does but provides no details. Dr Fauci served as an ornamental stage prop today; he did not speak. Trump adds new members to the task force including a vaccine czar Dr Moncef Slaoui, a pharmaceutical executive, to spearhead Operation Warpspeed to develop a vaccine. Slaoui takes the podium and proclaims that a few hundred million doses of vaccine will be available before the end of the year. That is more than Trump's claim of 300 million vaccine doses; the proclamations become larger with each passing day. The czar hints that 300 to 500 million doses (which is 100's of millions) will be available within 28 weeks. Interestingly, in a magazine interview released hours ago, Slaoui said it would take 12 to 18 months to develop a vaccine. Trump continues to say a vaccine will be available to all Americans by the end of the year or before. The majority of doctors and healthcare specialists are skeptical at such wild claims. Trump nods approval at Slaoui as he speaks like a parent providing encouragement to a child. Trump looks back at Fauci who stares straight ahead and remains silent not wanting to be associated with guaranteeing 500 million virus vaccines available in only 6 months time. Comically, Donnie is the guy who sees 1 man doing a job that takes 30 days and he immediately proclaims that 30 men can do that job in one day. The president declares, "Vaccine or no vaccine, we're (the economy) back!" The presser was short by Trump standards. Donnie, the maskless, orange-headed showman, leads the United States down the primrose lane. Pence does not attend the presser clearly he and Trump are staying away from each other. Humorously, if Trump and Pence were incapacitated by the virus, the third in line for the presidency is Nancy Pelosi, the democrat House leader. In a few days, with the new case data, we will know the fate of America going forward. Was restarting the US economy a brilliant, or bone-headed, decision? No need for any of you tribal idiots to argue the point at the water cooler for the next several days, while donning masks, instead, relax and wait a few days for the new case data and it will be obvious who is the winner; Trump or COVID-19. Two entered the cage match a few days ago but only one will exit. The latest numbers indicate the Wuhan Flu has sickened over 4.6 million people around the world killing over 307K. In the United States, coronavirus has sickened 1.5 million people killing over 88K. That is three baseball stadium's worth of people.

Note Added Friday Evening, 5/15/20, at 9:00 PM EST: The SPX, which is the S&P 500 and the United States stock market, printed an all-time record high at 3394 on 2/19/20. The SPX then crashed -35.4%, in only 23 days, to a low at 2192 on 3/23/20, the fastest stock market crash in US history (President Trump likes records). The stock market then rallies from 2192 to 2955 on 4/29/20 a +34.8% relief rally. Stocks have been in a choppy sideways pattern for the last month chewing up bulls and bears alike. Chop suey. The S&P 500 moves through a sideways channel at 2760-2940. The SPX sits at 2864 this weekend. Bulls win big if price moves above the 2940 resistance. Bears win big if price loses the 2760 support. Bulls and bears will continue to get chopped up like mince meat within the 2760-2940 channel.

Note Added Saturday, 5/16/20: CNN does a news story bashing Worldometer and its data collection last evening. CNN is unable to track down the owners of the site so it concludes that something must be incorrect with the data. There is likely a political agenda behind the news story. Keystone uses Wordometer data and charts and the information appears credible and in the same ballpark as other sources. Humorously, both the liberal, progressive and left-leaning democrat cable news network CNN, and the conservative, right-leaning republican network Fox News, make errors in their news reporting last evening. People are typically non math-minded so they must be unable to grasp even simple concepts and report them accurately. Both network hacks say that New York's curve has flattened and the worst is over. Dolts. They are looking at the wrong chart. Governor Cuomo likes to say, "we are over the mountain." He is referring to the new case bar chart that had increased daily, peaked on 4/15/20, and has trended lower for many days. It is correct to say that the new case chart is over the mountain but you do not care about that chart. The important chart, for the umpteenth time, is the active cases chart shown above, which is the bell curve chart, that represents the maximum strain on the medical system. The active cases chart is the one you want to see flatten and roll over. It is the chart that will take on a bell shape. It is the chart to watch when people say "flatten the curve" not the new case chart. Kapish? Nope, this simple concept will continue to go over everyone's head and it will continue to be reported incorrectly. America is a stupid society these days where mediocrity rules. Decades ago, citizens at all levels were smarter, had far more common sense and the work produced in the US was unparalleled. Alas, that time is gone. As evidenced by the active case chart for New York above, which Cuomo does not show at his press conferences, New York remains in trouble. The bell curve has not peaked and rolled over as yet so the maximum strain on New York's medical system continues despite what the boneheads on television tell you. Perhaps the brother Cuomo that is a commentator on CNN does not want Governor Cuomo to look bad so they are attempting to discredit Wordometer? Who knows? Everyone has an agenda and anxious to stab others in the back these days. This is how crony capitalism ends. Leader Pelosi passes the $3 trillion stimulus bill in the House but the Senate, and president, both declare the bill DOA (dead-on-arrival). In America, the bills typically begin in the House, are approved, then go to the Senate, that will change things, and approve it, and send it back to the House, who will either accept or reject the Senate version. If accepted the bill goes on to the president for signing into law. If not accepted by the House, the negotiations continue until a compromise can be achieved. The CDC says that 100,000 people will be dead in the United States from COVID-19 by June 1. JCP goes belly-up. JC Penney declares Chapter 11 bankruptcy overnight. Where are all those babushka-wearing American women aged 55 to 90 years old going to shop now?.

Note Added Sunday, 5/17/20: The American ignorance continues. A Fox News report on the radio says the "New York curve has flattened." Wrong. A CNN television report comments on the state of Georgia and opines at how the total cases keep increasing. Duh. Think about it. Which way do you expect them to go? Of course they are increasing and will until the pandemic is over; that chart is supposed to go up continuously until the pandemic ends and you will have a final total case number. The level of ignorance in the US is at impressive levels these days. Here is your Reader's Digest version for keeping track of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. There are four charts typically shown for a country, region or US state; total cases, new cases, active cases and deaths. The total cases will of course continue higher so do not pay much attention to this chart. The new cases chart is extremely important. Ditto the active cases chart which is the most important chart of the four. Simplifying, The Keystone Speculator Virus Model identifies the New Case Peak Date with the new case bar chart and then adds 3 weeks time to identify the Active Case Peak Date (the top of the bell curve for the active cases chart). The active case chart represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The goal is to flatten the active case chart and have it roll over lower creating the bell curve chart pattern; this will tell you that the worst is over for the healthcare workers. Media, politicians and the public are in a state of mass confusion, partly because of the chaotic communication and handling of the situation where Trump is constantly in crisis mode putting out fires because of poor planning by himself and prior presidents. The media keeps mistakenly reporting that the "curve has flattened." The dolts are looking at the new case bar chart when they should be looking at the active cases chart. For the umpteenth-and-a-half time, the FLATTENING OF THE CURVE ONLY PERTAINS TO THE ACTIVE CASE CHART since this tells you the maximum pressure on the healthcare services is occurring as the top of the bell curve forms. So when New York says we are over the mountain on the new case chart, that is a correct statement because the new cases are clearly trending lower, however, as seen in the New York active case chart above, the active cases continue increasing, albeit incrementally, but nonetheless the strain on New York's medical systems continues to increase slightly not decrease. The healthcare workers will not catch a break until the active case bell curve chart flattens and rolls over. Concerning the death chart, sadly, this chart will continue higher long after the peak in the active cases occurs. The strain on the medical folks will be greatly lessened once the active cases flatten and roll over to form the right side of the bell curve, however, many patients will remain sick for a while and many of them will end up dying (for the countries that were the best at handling the pandemic, most of their death charts continue to rise). The death charts were discussed in more detail in the prior Article 6 which is linked in the front matter above. Keystone cannot explain the coronavirus pandemic any clearer. If you cannot comprehend the COVID-19 data and charts as explained, do not worry, you are simply another American Idiot.