Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today at SPX 6856 as Pope Powell was spinning yarns at the podium. Stocks sh*t the bed when Chairman Powell said a 12/10/25 rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Who uses the word 'foregone' anymore? If you say foregone a lot you will never be invited to fun parties but will be invited to the bingo hall.

VIX 16.70, XRT 84.17 and XLF 52.83 tell the stock market story; volatility, retail stocks and banks, respectively. The bulls need 1 of the 3 to turn bullish to stop any threat of stocks selling off. Bears need to keep these 3 parameters bearish and pull commodities lower to begin strong selling action in stocks.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Inflation Data, US/China Trade Deal, and Ongoing Fed Rate Cuts Create Stock Market Orgy and All-Time SPX High at 6920

The blow-off stock market top, well, keeps blowing off. What a crazy ride, a long strange trip, it has been for the last couple months as illustrated by the bowl of spaghetti above. Truckin'. Stocks rally off the April low as traders begin sniffing out rate cuts in the offing. The Fed's easy money flows into the stock market making the wealthy, that own the stock market, wealthier. Don't you love crony capitalism filth? It's great if you got money and are in the stock market; not so much if you are a common American peon that does not own any stocks. Sucks to be you. The divide between rich and poor in the United States has not been this wide since the !970's.

Anyhoo, stocks rally as expected into August but become toppy and over exuberant as the lizard king, Fed Chairman Greenspan, said in December 1996. The dot com bubble did not pop for another 3 years. This is what analysts say nowadays to keep investors in the market; while the institutions sneak out the back door. They say buy, buy, buy, because a blowoff top will not occur for another couple years. The three brown circles show textbook distribution days. That is the smart money selling to Joe Sixpack, Carmelita Bagholder and Antonio Sucka.

The analysts and strategists on television paint a rosy picture as they tiptoe away; pump and dump. The blue circle shows that these last three massive euphoric bullish rally days could not produce volume, on any of the days, that surpassed the negative selling volume from last Wednesday. Volume should catapult to the moon for a robust rally; instead it languishes as the investment banksters tell you to put more money into the stock market.

In August, at Jackson Hole, Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells everyone that rate cuts are coming for as far as the eye can see. The stock market never looks back running higher like a banshee. Powell delivers the first rate cut in mid-September so it is more rally time as America's wealthy dance with glee, making money effortlessly, celebrating the Federal Reserve's money-printing, while they spit on the masses.

The top appears early this month and is an easy call with the rising wedge pattern, universal negative divergence, overbot conditions, loss of the strong rally, price overextended needing mean reversion, and sentiment remains off the charts bullish. She takes the dive on Friday, 10/10/25, and the expectation is that a multi-day and multi-week down move for the stock market should begin. But alas, the stock market uncouples from technicals entering a new phase.

Stocks recover after the mid-month slump because of the uber bullish sentiment, complacency, fearlessness, and belief that stocks will never go down. The dip-buyers stand ready to buy even the smallest retreat. It is fun to watch. Financial commentators vie daily for the Irving Fisher award (he told everyone the stock market was at a permanently high plateau--right before the 1929 crash). Goldman Sachs says this morning all is fine for lots more upside. CNBC commentator Jim Cramer says ignore the comparisons to the dot-com bubble top and instead buy, buy, buy. It is funny stuff.

The stock market creeps higher in anticipation of the inflation data that dropped last Friday, 10/24/25. The US government is shutdown due to the corrupt demopublican and republocrat politicians so data is as scarce as hen's teeth these days. This placed enormous attention on the inflation data that was relatively in line but immediately perceived as tame and the inflation data orgy gap-up higher move occurs. Wheeee! Whoopie! Pass that jug of Fed wine. Wheeee.

The orgy feeds into this week that was already expected to move stocks higher since stocks are bullish 80% of the time in front of a Fed meeting and rate decision. Adding further hype and euphoria to the stock market, King Donnie proclaims that the US and China have a framework trade deal. All the word framework means is there is an outline of things to discuss. It is all theater and stagecraft.

Nonetheless, the US/China trade deal orgy creates the gap-up move in stocks yesterday. It is a wild time. The SPX, S&P 500, the United States stock market, prints an all-time high in history at 6877.28 and new all-time closing high at 6875.16, on Monday, 10/27/25.

This orgy activity creates short-term strength as shown by the green lines but the chart will simply set-up for a top again. Stochastics remain overbot. The maroon lines show that neggie d remains for the price move over the last month despite the orgies. The last 2 weeks are driven by news and emotion and this continues for this week. The Fed begins its two-day meeting today and the rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference is tomorrow afternoon. Obviously, the presser will move markets one way or the other.

Ditto for Thursday when King Donnie and dirtbag Dictator Xi meet to discuss trade and tariffs and confirm the happy talk, or maybe not? Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, even if Powell's presser sends stocks one way or the other, the next day King Donnie may reverse, or reinforce, the directional move with the China trade deal news. In other words, there are a lot of balls in the air and we find out this week if any will drop.

The ADX shows that the rally this year was a strong trend higher (pink box) into August but that is when it petered out. After the mid-September rate cut, the ADX tried to reestablish a strong trend higher, but could not, and then again early this month tried to reestablish the strong trend, but again failed, and the ADX is now down in the basement at 20 unexcited and unimpressed with the orgy moves higher in equities.

The Aroon shows that all the bulls, and comically, all the bears, were 100% bullish the stock market as the spankdown was received 2 weeks ago. The bulls remain euphorically 100% bullish anxious to buy any and all dips, while the bears are waking up from hibernation with about half of them now negative on the market.

So what is next? You have to wait for the hump day and Thursday dramas to play out and then we can see where the stock market will top-out in the near-term and determine if the bulls were able to stretch THE top out for a month or so more.

It is interesting to see lots of layoffs occurring this month but not surprising. Decades back, companies would sh*t-can workers the day before Thanksgiving; no one gave a crap. But this took on a negative tone in the 80's and 90's and into the new century. Companies would receive bad publicity for throwing people to the curb right before the holidays. How could they be so cruel and heartless like Ebenezer Scrooge? Fred was such a good worker and he has a child with physical needs! How dare they be so cruel!

Well, companies are keenly aware of perceptions and marketing these days and layoffs in November and December are pretty-much taboo because no one wants to be called Scrooge. So what does that mean? You get the dead weight out the door in October before the holidays plus you do not have to pay them for the holiday pay.

If you are worried about getting laid off, all you have to do is make it through this week and say Monday and Tuesday. If you do not get sh*t-canned, and told to take your family photos, plant that needs watered, and change for the coffee machine, and get the Hell out, by next Tuesday, 11/4/25, you are likely safe until January. The company made the decision to keep your dead arse around and pay you for the holidays.

However, you will have to watch carefully to see if more work (backlog) comes into your company. If not, you will be axed in January. If so, you will get another reprieve. All of you young people have not lived through a recession and bad financial times in your life yet, the COVID-19 pandemic was a special situation, so you have quite a life learning experience ahead for yourselves. You will learn a lot about yourself and what you are made of.

Keybot the Quant remains long and is focused on financials and volatility as the two most important drivers of the stock market currently. Retail stocks and commodities are also key. Keystone is holding index shorts on the broad stock market that are underwater currently. It will be interesting to see when the quant decides to go short. Keybot only sees 1's and 0's and trades completely devoid of emotion.

So that is the story over the last few months especially the last two orgy days. The AI hype got us here as we discover that much of it is a circle-jerk among the key players. They will all rise, or fall, on the artificial intelligence craze. It may be artificial and far too overhyped. AI is not going to unclog your toilet during a party, or replace your roof, or cut your hair. The fancy NVDA chips are going to be yesterday's news in a few months, say a couple years, so the clock is ticking to justify the billions and billions of dollars spent on the fancy chips in the AI circle-jerk. Applications are a ways away, and then training and software debugging will be needed, then implementation, so it is hard to believe that something of significant use will come from AI within the next say, 24 months. All those billions on stale chips may be money that goes up in flames.

A human needs food and water, shelter, and clothing; the bare necessities to survive in the world. People have become far too reliant on technology. In a recession, many of you will have blisters develop on your hands for the first time. Hurricane Melissa is hammering Jamaica, man, or mon. Melissa's can be sweet, but deadly. Melissa by Gregg and the gang. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:29 PM EST: Scamazon sh*t-cans thousands of workers as do many other companies. Layoffs are in the news today. Of course they are. Companies are throwing people out the door in October so they are not accused of being heartless if they do it in November. Plus, the companies do not have to pay holiday pay for those deadbeats. What happened to all the planned holiday hires? Keystone saw an elf panhandling on 5th Avenue the other day and Santa was drinking at the bar unable to find work. Of course, Amazon and other companies are saying that AI is the reason that folks are given a pink slip. How convenient. If you are a manager, and have to can people, of course you can blame that big unknown boogeyman called artificial intelligence. A lot of job losses are not due to AI, they are due to a slowing economy. Companies also get rid of people that do not fit in or get along with others (in other words, they do not kiss the boss's *ss enough), and of course the deadbeats and deadwood. There are jobs in the short-term that are toast due to AI such as researchers since the chat-bots can take care of all that now. Also, call centers, although the experience will never improve. Billions are spent on chips in the AI circle-jerk to put a young lady doing internet research out of a job that only made minimum wage. NVDA CEO Jensen proclaims today that AI is the official Second Coming. NVDA stock pops +5% sending the stock indexes to new record highs. The SPX new all-time high is 6911.30 and new all-time closing high is 6890.89. The screenprinter handed out "SPX 6.9K" hats but said time is of the essence since he must print up thousands of "SPX 7K" hats. The analysts will end up correct above SPX 7K as stocks melt-up on AI hype, China trade deal hype, rate hike hype, low inflation hype. Dear God, it's beautiful. Irving Fisher declares that stocks will never go down again. Pope Powell is picking up his dove wings at the cleaners for tomorrow's big rate decision and presser. He is a white-winged dove ready to drop easy money onto the laps of America's wealthy to make them richer. Edge of Seventeen. Watch the banksters and volatility.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/30/25: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high holds at 6890.89 on 10/28/25. The SPX drops to 6822 today. Chairman Powell says a rate cut on 12/10/25 is not a done deal so stocks become soggy. Stocks are unenthusiastic since the crony capitalism filth system needs easy money to make the wealthy class more effortlessly wealthy. Tech earnings are not as great as expected creating sogginess in the stock market but AAPL and AMZN happy earnings this evening may stabilize stocks. The US/China trade deal is a joke. King Donnie folded like a cheap suit since the communists are holding the rare earth elements and minerals over his orange head. Obviously, Donnie did not consider the ramifications and secondary effects that occur due to his tariff games. China is supposed to buy soybeans over the coming years but that looks like smoke and mirrors. Tariffs are cut for China so Donnie looks like he returns to America with his tail between his legs. Further, Dictator Xi pats King Donnie on the head and tells him to come to Shanghai in April to do some more commie butt-kissing. Trumpski says he did not talk about NVIDIA's Blackwell chip after he hyped it ahead of time. More smoke and mirrors and baby games. Traders and investors are starting to look around at each other and ask how did we get up this high and how do we get back down? It is the Tower of Babel in Babylon. New York Dolls.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.

USD US Dollar Daily and Weekly Charts; W-Pattern Bottom; Inverted H&S; Long-Term Sideways Channel; Pope Powell Controls Direction on 10/29/25

Everyone has written the last song for the greenback and expects nothing but downside ahead. Instead, the dollar has rebounded, as the previous chart with possie d forecasted, albeit the dixie remains in a sideways funk. Markets are news and emotion driven currently as the US stock market likely prints a historic major top. Technically, the dollar was set to recover more over the last 3 months but alas, a sideways funk is in motion due to the daily King Donnie bloviations and drama, along with Pope Powell's comments on rate cuts that send the buck wildly one way or the other.

At Jackson Hole in August, Chairman Powell waved the rate cut flag and it was off to the races. The dollar dropped and gold popped and the stock market ran higher to new all-time highs. America's wealthy class dances with glee watching their stock holding catapult higher with no effort on their part. Too bad one-half of the country does not own a single share of stock. The have's celebrate America's crony capitalism filth system throwing confetti and watching their stock holdings increase by the minute, while the have-not's slave away working daily, many with multiple jobs, and unable to pay all their monthly bills.

The have-not's must also pay higher electricity bills so the AI millionaires and billionaires can become more wealthy. The privileged elite, that control the crony capitalism filth, ask why is everyone so glum when things are great.

Anyhoo, the dollar bottoms in the summer when traders and investors were guaranteeing that the dollar is complete toast and an all-out collapse is occurring. That is when it bounced also receiving the possie d launch (green lines). Price is stalling at 99 as the ROC rolls over with neggie d. The other chart indicators, however, on the weekly basis, are long and strong so price will want to make higher highs on a weekly basis even if this week is soggy. Watch the RSI to see if it moves above 50% into bull territory that will lock in more upside.

The blue inverted H&S (head and shoulders) pattern is in play let us call the head at 96.90 and the neckline at 99.10. That is a 2.20 difference. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the dollar will seek 101.30 as the upside target if price moves above 99.10 (light blue neckline). The 101.30-ish level is price resistance and will also form a confluence with the 50-week MA at 101.98 and dropping.

The dark blue lines show the ongoing multi-year sideways channel at 100-108. The buck broke out higher at the end of last year and early this year but price collapsed lower back into the safety of the channel. The greenback then collapsed out the bottom of the channel as the talk of rate cuts became more prominent and expected.

The USD daily chart is shown above because of the W-pattern bottom one of the most powerful patterns in stock trading. Of course, the dollar is susceptible to Fed and Donnie talk so it is a special animal. W-pattern bottoms on the daily charts will typically forecast lots of upside ahead for that stock or index. Let's say the bottom of the W is 96.5 and top is 99.5 to make the math easy that is a 3 difference so the upside target will be 102.5 if price pops above 99.5.

Keystone knew a trader for many years that traded his client's portfolios mainly with W-pattern bottoms and he did quite well. If the W forms below the 50-day MA or 200-day MA it will be a stronger move higher, and if it is under both it will be a very robust move higher. The W above cuts through the 50 but is under the 200 so it should have oomph to it and the expectation from all the mumbo-jumbo above is that the dollar will probably be above 100 perhaps at 101-102 in a month's time (remember, Pope Powell speaks on Wednesday and he controls the show).

Keystone is not playing currencies long or short currently. The dollar could be played long but it is likely best to wait for Pope Powell on Wednesday when he brings the tablets down from On High to announce the rate cut. Traders will be listening for confirmation for the next 12/10/25 rate cut, or if Powell backs off the promise of more rate cuts ahead.

The previous GTX chart shows how goods inflation is on the rise again, driven last week by a big pop in oil prices, but any jump in inflation is going to worry the Fed that they are cutting into an economy experiencing increased inflation, especially as tariffs are now kicking-in for the US consumer, and that will create rampant out of control Trumpflation like the Bidenflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. That was a long sentence.

The fate of the dollar, gold and US stock market is in the hands of Pope Powell on hump day. Money. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 10/30/25: Dixie moves higher to 99.53 making a bounce or die decision at the top of the W pattern. Does the dollar bounce and start moving higher from here (yes, probably), or, will it be spanked back down and die? The dollar may not be as weak because Pope Powell decreed that a 12/10/25 rate cut is not a done deal.

Note Added Saturday, 11/1/25: USD pops to 99.73 with a HOD up to 99.84 a hair from one hundo that will get everyone's attention.

GOLD Weekly Charts; Gold All-Time Record High at 4382; Tweezer Top

Gold has been the big winner this year up +65%. The gold bugs finally have their day. Humorously, gold was always bought as a hedge against the Fed and other central bankers that cannot stop printing fiat money, but at the same time the central bankers are creating the big money gains for the gold bugs due to their buying and demand.

Global central banks are losing confidence in the flood of paper money in circulation around the world and have been focused on building gold reserves to support their currencies and countries. Central banks begin purchasing gold in force in 2022 and 2023. You would think by 2025, that most of those purchases were finished and the gold was safely stored in each central bank's mini Fort Knox's, but tell that to the gold price that goes parabolic.

With the US stock market at an epic and historic major top currently, gold and bitcoin have become the favorite flavors of the day. Further, as evidenced in recent price action, bitcoin lags. People want tangible real things that can be held in the hand or owned like gold, silver, real estate, etc... Obviously, gold is the big winner.

The Diwali Festival started a couple days ago and a lot of gold is bought in this time period that may be providing that final boost higher in recent days.

Besides the central bank buying launch pad in 2022/2023, there is the Jackson Hole meeting in August a couple months ago. Pope Powell hiked to the top of the Wyoming mountain, avoiding bear and elk, and returned from On High with the tablets that told traders how to trade. Powell declared rate cuts for as far as the eye can see so the dollar immediately collapsed and gold shot up like a rocket in this parabolic phase that commodities are known for. It can be called the Jackson Holeshot for gold. 

The blue ascending triangle pattern is bullish and it came through in spades. Looking at a couple different break-out lines one at 3350 and one at 3450. The base of the vertical side is 3K so a 350 difference added to 3350 is 3700 and gold blew through that target. A 450 difference for the 3450 base line provides an upside target at 3900 also achieved so the ascending triangle pattern was validated and played-out. There would be not much more upside expected but gold keeps rocketing higher as the stock market and global affairs become shakier by the day.

The red circle shows a textbook Tweezer Top (the long candlestick shadows resemble tweezers and typically identify a top). GOLD PRINTS AN ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH AT 4381.58. Congrats to the gold bugs.

The top comes with negative divergence (red lines) except for the MACD line. This tells you that there remains fuel in the tank on the weekly basis with the MACD to bring price back up for another look at the high. Will this occur? It is hard to say because the markets have been running more on news and emotion the last couple months than technicals.

The upper band is violated so a move back down to the middle band at 3566, and rising, is on the table. That tight band squeeze (green arrows) launched price higher. When bands tighten like that, it means a huge move is on tap but the direction is not forecasted. This time it was a launch move. 

Gold received the spankdown because of the neggie d on the daily chart. Price is testing the 20-day MA at 4057 and will make a bounce or die decision. The daily chart may want a few more days of sogginess but the weekly chart still has the long and strong MACD so keep that in mind.

The gold monthly chart remains constructive for more new highs on the monthly basis but for now, going forward from here, the top is either in now, or will be in a couple weeks if the MACD on the weekly basis is satisfied, and a multi-week down move would be expected ahead. That means the US dollar, the dixie, DXY or USD, will strengthen ahead and continue recovering.

That triangle baseline range of 3350-3450 is key and the expectation would be that gold would come back to show it respect. Interestingly, the 50-week MA is at 3191 moving higher and over the next month or so you can see it moving up into the 3350-3450 range giving this area further street cred. If a gold bull, consider taking profits. You could scale-out and that way would not miss more price appreciation if the fuel in the MACD tank pushes gold back up for a matching all-time high at 4382.

Keystone is not playing gold long or short currently and has not for the last couple years. The commodities have become dicey after oil turned negative and other wild stuff occurred during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. With all the precious metal talk, it is time to groove to the Black Keys and Gold on the Ceiling. The Ohio boys done good. A great concert. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 10/28/25: Gold collapses to 3886 from the peak in only 6 days. When something, many times a commodity, goes parabolic up, it typically retreats the same way. Gold was almost at 4400 last Tuesday, 4.4K, a week ago, and now sports a 3.8K handle.

GTX Commodities Index Weekly Chart Explains Trumpflation

Next Wednesday, 10/29/25, Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High and tell global traders how to trade. Powell will cut the key rate by a quarter point followed by another cut in December. The Federal Reserve is more focused on the labor picture of its two-mandate mission with inflation taking a back seat currently.

Inflation data was perceived as tame yesterday so that means rate cuts and easy money for as far as the eye can see. America's wealthy class dances with glee knowing they can rape the country for more easy and effortless stock market gains. Too bad that one-half of the country does not own a single share of stock. As long as inflation remains in check, the rate cuts are perceived to help the economy and jobs. If, however, inflation begins running higher, the rate cuts will only serve to fuel more inflation. You remember the Bidenflation during the COVID-19 pandemic and you do not want a repeat with the Trumpflation.

King Donnie was elected in November 2024 at GTX 3500. The orange head was officially sworn-in to office in January of this year at GTX 3850 and was awarded a paper Burger King hat. No one noticed that GTX jumped +4% last week and now teases towards 4K. Common Americans are not surprised since they see the outrageous prices at the supermarket. Folks gather around the meat department commenting on high prices opining about the past when they could cook a steak dinner at home. Keystone told the girls at the market they should start selling lettuce by the leaf since a head is now 3 bucks.

Where's King Donnie? He is focused on international affairs bragging that he stopped wars as the Middle East remains a mess and the orange one now threatens war against Venezuela. Note to Donnie; if you want your little peace medal, it is not a good idea to declare war on a country and start bombing it.

Trump needs to refocus on the economy to show he at least cares. Spewing garbage from the press room podium that prices have gone down is a lie. And why is the Whitehouse Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt always yelling when she talks? Oh my. How would you like to be married to that getting yelled at all day long? No thank you. At least she is better than the incompetent Karine Jean-Pierre chick that lied for Biden that has three first names.

GTX consists of energy, ag (you say ag instead of agriculture to sound cool like you know what you are talking about), industrial and precious metals, and livestock. Precious. This basket includes crude oil, natty gas (you say natty instead of natural gas to sound cool like you know what you are talking about), heating oil, wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, coffee, sugar, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, gold, silver, cattle and lean hogs.

Energy is the largest weighting for GTX and note that XLE popped +3% last week. Brent Oil pops +7% and West Texas Intermediate gains +4% so GTX runs higher on the energy enthusiasm.

When King Donnie was elected and took office, inflation was on the rise and in people's faces. To Trumpski's good luck, as the chart shows, GTX, a representation of goods inflation, drops during the stock market crash in late February, March, and early April. This allows Donnie to brag that inflation has come down and he tells everyone he is a hero. But goods inflation runs higher again and the press secretary would be best advised to stop painting a rosy picture on prices because all of America knows it is a lie.

Note how the chart is in a sideways funk for the last few months. This enables both inflation cheerleaders and detractors to have an equal say since price has not committed to a direction yet. The move higher in GTX should create fear because the rate cuts will fuel the Trumpflation. GTX represents goods inflation but services inflation will also be impacted since goods are typically involved in the services you receive. If a severe recession occurs going forward, inflation will drop sharply, and the rate cuts will be the correct path ahead, but many people will be kicked to the curb and left jobless.

Sleepy Joe Biden, the dementia and Alzheimer's patient that was president for the prior four years, fell from favor and had a low approval rating because of the crazy inflation he created with his war on the energy complex in favor of the glorified golf carts (EV's), windmills that kill birds and eagles, and solar cells that do not work on a cloudy day. Have You Ever Seen the Rain? Donnie needs to be careful he does not repeat the Biden mistake.

The tariffs are starting to kick-in to consumer prices that are rising which will hurt retail sales going forward. Biden's goose was cooked by his misguided climate change agenda and war on America's energy complex and Trump may suffer the same fate due to his daily misguided and confusing tariff drama and other escapades.

It will get ugly going forward if GTX pops above 4K running higher because the Fed will be cutting rates at the same time throwing gasoline on the inflation fire potentially creating rampant out of control Trumpflation. Time will tell.

It is guaranteed that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell probably did not sleep well last night. Neither did King Donnie because he is holding on to the fig leaf of lower oil prices but he will be completely exposed if the oil prices begin running higher. If oil prices rise, retail sales drop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

LULU Lululemon Weekly Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence

The ladies love their Lulu leggings, and the men love that the women love their leggings. Especially those see-through offerings from a few years ago. LULU did not account for the stretch of the fabric so each time the ladies bent over in public they were providing a free show. Unfortunately, word got out fast and the leggings were returned for refunds. The female legs in leggings provide lovely public scenery. Legs. Do you remember Lulu Roman? From HeeHaw days. She was a sweetheart; a beautiful voice and very funny. That's a shame; she died a few months ago. One Day at a Time.

LULU stock has been taken to the shed out back and spanked over the last couple years. There is lots of competition these days buying leggings for 5 bucks at Dollar General instead of 70 to 130 bucks from Lululemon. However, modern society is all about status, and class, and wealth, and crony capitalism, and the bragging rights go to LULU. If you want that status, like a Gucci handbag, or custom-tailored Armani suit, or Mercedes convertible, you must work out in Lululemon leggings and other products. Thus, LULU will always have a solid customer base of wealthy individuals that want to keep up with the Joneses.

The reason for posting the chart is one, to display a textbook possie d bottom, it is a very nice and lovely bottom that Lulu has formed in those leggings, and second, LULU may offer a store of value, or safe harbor, going forward for those looking for a place to park money.

In less than 2 years, LULU falls from over 5 hundo to 179, a -70% crash. The stock lost its pants and its leggings. Holy smokes. That is a drubbing. Lulu was rode hard and put away wet. Quite a beating.

All of you lovely ladies will continue to buy leggings, mostly black leggings to make your fat *sses look smaller, and even if Lulu is too expensive for many, most ladies will continue to buy Lululemon products albeit less frequently. Plus, if you are a man with any common sense, buy your lady a quality gift like Lululemon and you will make her happy, unless she asks why are you giving her leggings; does it mean she needs to exercise? In that case, you will spend the night with Fido.

Keystone is not long or short LULU. If someone is looking for a place to stash money since the stock market is placing a major long-term top right now, consider LULU. It already bounced off the possie d bottom and is establishing higher lows and higher highs for the green channel. At worse, as stocks begin falling apart, LULU will likely chop sideways at 150-220 for the coming months. Keep in mind that many stocks will lose from -10% to -50% or more of their value over the coming months and couple years. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

HYG High-Yield Bond ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

The HYG high-yield corporate bond ETF is topped-out with a double-top, just like LQD, like JNK, and like the S&P 500. MUB, the muni's, may want to jog for a couple weeks (down for a week, then back up the next week to top out) so traders and investors are perhaps buying MUB preferentially for perceived safety.

The HYG chart walked into an ugly forest and bumped into every tree. It topped out as October started due to the negative divergence (red lines), overbot conditions, rising wedge, upper band violation and overextended price above the moving average ribbon. All negatives so slap, HYG receives the neggie d spankdown that should begin a multi-week slide.

However, there is lots of happy talk nowadays from King Donnie and Pope Powell professing happy tariff deals, that do not materialize into concrete contracts, rate cuts for as far as the eye can see, more money-printing and easy money conditions so the wealthy can protect their stock holdings, etc... You know, the ongoing crony capitalism filth gig.

So HYG price recovers and once again bumps its head on that strong 80-81 resistance. Since price is printing matching or higher highs, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d and now it appears in spades. There is no mistaking the neggie d across all chart indicators. This puppy is going to trail lower for many weeks ahead.

The ADX shows 2024 as one big party verifying the strong trend higher well into this year (pink box). Alas, the ADX continues lower since the strong trend was lost in May. Price moving higher or maintaining elevated values as the strong trend is lost is not good. Note that for price coming back up to make the matching high, the ADX roll over lower, not a good look. Despite price at joyful heights with everyone partying like its 1999, a la Prince, the ADX no longer considers the rally to be a strong trend.

The Aroon shows what many charts show nowadays as the major and historic topping action continues. The green line shows that nearly all the bulls believe that HYG price will go up forever. Comically, the red line shows that every single bear believes that HYG will go up forever. That is funny stuff just like other charts. And people parade across television and internet screens saying there is no sign of euphoria, or complacency, in the stock market. Open your eyes. Everyone bullish remains off the charts bullish and all the bears have left town. The handful of bears remaining expect prices to continue higher forever, so they are converting to bulls. That is a boat fully loaded to the bull side as the tide rolls in.

The orange lines show areas of price support on the way down. The orange circle shows a gap that is 'big enough to drive a truck through', so you have to use this worn-out cliche if you can, and that gap will need filled in the future.

On the HYG monthly chart, it is either topping out right now with the weekly or may want a jog move of down one month, in sync with the weekly basis moving lower for a few weeks, and then back up for a month that would be THE very long term top. You will know this answer in the charts in a couple weeks.

There is a high likelihood that THE top is now and it will last not only many weeks, but many months if not a couple years or more going forward. Keystone is not in HYG long or short right now but the obvious play is short going forward. If you are in HYG, take the money and exit stage right. If you are a bull, or a bear, it does not matter now since everyone expects higher prices, and believe that HYG will continue going up forever, you need to begin to gird your loins. Little Lion Man. It is a good thing Mumford did not call it Little Loin Man. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10/30/25: HYG is at 80.80 continuing to chop sideways. The 20-day MA support is 80.75 so it is time to bounce, or die. The 50-day MA is 80.60 so that would be big trouble if it fails.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bull side after the opening bell this morning at SPX 6711. Retail stocks, commodities, banksters and volatility are all that matter. Watch XLF 52.87; a bull/bear line in the sand called out by the quant. XLF price is 52.82 in the after-hours trading only a nickel away. Bulls will enjoy more upside if XLF turns bullish above 52.87 so watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning.

As always, do not be surprised if the quant flips back to the short side tomorrow or hump day. Those four parameters will tell you the story forward.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; Potential 2-Leg Bear Flag; Head & Shoulders

Here is an update of the SPX daily and weekly charts as price chops sideways. Chop-suey can chew up bulls and bears. The 3-month top drama at 6200-6700 continues. Some analysts are not worried about a selloff or AI bubble because they say a blow-off top still has to occur to mark a top like the dot-com bubble. Analysts proclaim that the bulk of profits are made in this final acceleration phase as price tops out in a frenzy. That sounds good and does reflect history, however, not one person has said that the last 3 months is that blow-off top.

The daily chart shows the bearish rising wedge pattern, overbot conditions and universal neggie d across all indicators (redlines) that creates the spankdown. It is a text book top due to negative divergence and price is smacked lower on the daily basis. Price chops sideways for the rest of the week hoping to make it to 10/29/25 (8 trading days away) when Pope Powell will bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade (another rate cut is on the table to protect the wealthy that own the stock market).

Stocks are up about 80% of the time going into the Fed meeting so that would be early the following week (10/27-10/29). Stocks are typically weak through the new moon that is Tuesday so if the bears are going to growl, they have a window this week but next week will be harder as traders anticipate Santa Powell to hand out rate cut gifts while inflation is damned to the land of misfit toys.

Price keeps bumping its head on the 20-day MA resistance ceiling at 6674 and is having trouble popping up through. It will be a big deal for bulls if the SPX can get above the 20. Note that the biggest volume day over the last 6 weeks is the big down day on 10/10/25. Traders and investors are getting nervous that they are out ahead of their skis.

The blue lines show a potential 2-leg bull flag pattern. Say what? The first leg is the move off the top down to 6550 call it 210 points lower. Price then consolidates sideways with a slight upward bias forming the flag, like now. It is textbook so far. If price collapses from here, using the 6680 level as the starting point to begin the second leg down, that would target 6470-6480 where key price support exists. The price support gives the target a bit more street cred that it may occur.

The other pattern of interest is the good ole H&S the head and shoulders pattern. No, not the shampoo. Do not be sad if you have dandruff, wear a white shirt, and be glad that you have hair. The purple lines show the head and two shoulders and below that are 2 more lines that are potential necklines one at 6600 the other at 6550. If 6550 is lost, the 2-leg bear flag will likely play out.

Let's keep the numbers simple for Simple Minds. Say the head is 6750 and neck is 6600 so that is 150 difference thus, if price loses the 6600 level, 6450 is the downside target and there is lots of price support down there. If the neckline at 6550 fails, that is two hundo difference so the downside price target if it fails will be 6350 again a nice price support target from August. The daily chart looks like spaghetti so what is the weekly chart doing?

The SPX weekly chart tops out as previously explained previously in real-time. The rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d across all chart indicators makes the top call easy. The weekly chart shows how price remains up in the stratosphere with traders champing at the bit to buy all dips. The bulls are having fun and form a Conga line to celebrate.

A failure of 6550 would lead to trouble and this matches the neckline for the H&S on the daily chart. The big weekly buy volume candle from early September has not been surpassed but price chops sideways in this price range not yet willing to decide which way to exit.

The negative divergence on the weekly chart is big trouble because it tells you that a multi-week selloff has started. The expectation is for downside stock market action but King Donnie may proclaim happy talk about China tariffs or some other made-for-tv crap for the daily reality television show, or the rate cuts will be hyped for the next 8 days so stocks can make it to the 10/29/25 Powell Promised Land when manna from Heaven will be provided.

Price did not tag the upper standard deviation band that would have been a nice touch for the bears but if you look back to the February top, stocks topped out without touching the upper band. The middle band at 6382, and rising, and lower band at 5932, and rising, are on the table during the multi-week selloff that should continue this month and into Thanksgiving.

The stock market is cooked technically so any stick-saves depend on happy talk from King Donnie or Pope Powell. Remember, in a serious downturn, you sell what you have to to cover margin calls, including your grandmother's ring or your wife's bracelet. This is why in a selloff, novice investors that think they are protected in gold or bitcoin get slapped hard just like the broad stock market. People do not want to sell their gold or bitcoin but they will to cover margin calls as they lose their shirts in the stock market downtrend.

If you are a bull, all of your hope rides on King Donnie and Pope Powell happy talk. This week we will see if the stock market is so passe, like heroin. The Dandy Warhols. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/20/25: The bulls come to play goosing retail stocks and commodities higher. The King Donnie happy talk about China trade policy boosts stocks. Ditto the promise by a Whitehouse jackass that the government shutdown will end any day forward. Ditto the happy talk about the rate cut on tap next Wednesday (9 days away). In addition, Sapple iPhone sales are better than expected so a tech orgy begins. The rout was on and the SPX explodes higher to 6735. The bounce or die decision at the 20-day MA at 6676 results in a bounce and move higher. Price should come back for a back kiss to make sure it wants to go higher. There was no reason for price to move higher due to the neggie d on the daily and weekly charts but the happy talk was enough to goose prices higher today. The bulls sing "Monday, Monday" so good to me, but can't trust that day. The 2-leg bear flag pattern is busted but the H&S is still in play and now price will likely top-out again with a double-top.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

UTIL Utilities Daily and Weekly Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Rampant Euphoric Bullishness in Utility Sector

Utilities are about to have a religious experience. All those folks long the utes are going to be on their knees praying for the pain to stop. Utilities are on the verge of a neggie d spankdown in both the daily and weekly time frames.

You can fry an egg on the new AI chips since they run so hot and even cook a Rueben sandwich on a NVIDIA rubin chip. Utilities are providing the power and cooling for the AI revolution that is supposed to change all our lives. Are you caught up in the hype? It is a bunch of tech people in fleece vests that do not want to lose their jobs so they cheerlead the AI technology every 10 minutes calling it the best thing since sliced bread. Billions are invested in a circle jerk that is in essence, an all or nothing strategy. If AI is the Second Coming, fine, if not, it will be ugly.

Anyhoo, everybody and his bro are long and buying utility stocks. Majid, that drives the Uber, and Carmelita, that washes dishes at the William Penn Hotel, are taking their entire paycheck and buying utes. When asked for a hot tip, the shoeshine boy looks each way, then whispers, "utilities."

The daily chart shows four days of matching highs in price so the chart indicators can be assessed to see if negative divergence is in place. Do you see it? The red lines show the neggie d (price rising as the chart indicators slope down). UTIL is out of gas in the daily time frame and cannot push price any higher, therefore, it is time for a neggie d spankdown. Are you holding utilities? If so, bend over and grab your ankles.

The MACD line on the daily chart is trying to reconstitute a higher high but that does not look like any threat to the bears. Price has violated the upper band so a trip down to the middle band at 1114 and rising is on the table and the lower band at 1072.

The ADX indicates that the new record highs and rally are not reflective of a strong trend higher. The last strong trend ended in early August. This is negative because bigtime price highs should come with the ADX running higher.

The bullish euphoria in the AI hype is wild and out of control like the dot-com bubble. The Aroon shows that all the bulls remain bullish utilities and all the bears remain bullish as well. That is funny. Everyone is loaded up in the daily time frame on the bull side of the boat. The daily chart is one you want to run from. If you own utilities, ditch them or you will lose money going forward.

On the UTIL weekly chart, it is a lot of the same-o, same-o, as the daily chart. The red lines show the neggie d at play wanting to see a smackdown going forward and a multi-week pullback. The MACD line is trying to inch higher but likely poses no threat to the bear case. The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback.

Price has violated the upper band so a move down to the middle band at 1087 and lower band at 1021 are on the table. The ADX was last in a strong trend on the weekly basis last year and that petered out as 2025 started. Despite the euphoric record highs this year, the ADX no longer considers the utility rally to be a strong trend higher.

The Aroon is another comical metric showing that all the utility bulls remain bullish the utilities and all the bears remain bullish as well on the weekly basis. The cleaning lady at the local high school does not want to miss out on the easy gains so she placed her entire life savings into utility stocks. Keystone told her that she would be working as a cleaning lady for a long time.

The daily and weekly charts are garbage. Get out and save yourself if long any utilities. If you stick it out, you will lose a lot of money and then in a few weeks a judgement can be made about a relief rally. Keystone does not hold any utes long or short right now but obviously the play would be on the short side going forward.

Timmy Trader was bragging to pretty Emily, the administrative assistant, that he was loaded up long with utilities. Timmy puffs his chest out and says he is the new Jesse Livermore thinking he is impressing the young filly with his stock market prowess. Emily walks out of the breakroom with her buttered muffin telling Timmy that she would never date a man that does not respect neggie d on the daily and weekly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10/23/25: UTIL drops to 1133. UTIL topped-out at 1181 on 10/16/25.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Fibonacci Retracements; US Stock Market Collapses -3% after King Donnie Decrees Tariffs on China

The neggie d spankdown finally occurs. The prior smackdowns over the last few weeks were stick-saved by King Donnie or Pope Powell happy talk. When the slapdowns started, someone would run onto the trading floor and yell, "Rate cuts!" so everyone would buy like mad. Last Friday, the opposite happens, where Trumpski's words were the catalyst to kick in the negative divergence that has been explained across multiple time frames over the last few weeks.

The all-time record high for the S&P 500, the United States stock market, the SPX, is 6764.58 on 10/9/25 and the all-time closing high is at 6753.72 on 10/8/25.

Let's take a look at the SPX daily chart that is the bowl of spaghetti above. You can get dizzy if you stare at it too long. Dizzy by Tommy. Stocks top off in the daily time frame due to the red rising wedge a bearish pattern, overbot RSI and stochastics, and of course the neggie d the main reason (red lines). The divergences are the most important aspect of technical trading for any of you budding analysts.

Interestingly, the Wall Street analysts say the sky is the limit with stocks with targets of SPX 7K and higher. They say over the last month to not worry about a stock market top because before that happens, there will be a period of time for a blow-off top like the dot-com bubble. Therefore, there is nothing to worry about as the SPX drops -3% in 5 hours. Hey jackasses, you just saw the blow-off top; it was the last 2 months.

So down she goes and even though the orange head tried to stick-save the damage he kicked into gear on Friday, it was already gonzo. Price fell all the way to the lower standard deviation band so that places the middle band back on the table that is also the 20-day MA at 6667. Price will likely want to show the 20-day MA respect and come up for a back kiss in the days forward.

However, you can see that the chart indicators remain weak and bleak and wanting more lower lows in price going forward on the daily basis. The RSI is in bear territory below 50%. You can watch the stochastics to see if they go sub 50% that will signal more trouble, or if the stoch's hesitate at going below 50% that will open the door for the back kiss up to the 20.

Price is extended above the moving averages so a pullback was needed. Note how price is near the 50-day MA support at 6530. With a low last week at 6551, the SPX was in the neighborhood so what do you do when you are in the neighborhood of a friend, relative or family member? You knock on the door and say hello and hope you are not interrupting. If the house is a rockin', don't bother knockin', come on in. Stevie Ray. There is some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down. Come on, baby, shake somethin' loose. That guitar was SRV's third arm. Remarkable. The SPX will likely want to test the 50 since it is in the neighborhood and the weak and bleak chart indicators indicate that is the path forward.

What happens quite a bit in the pullbacks is price bouncing off the 100-day MA at 6327 and rising. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why we are never invited to parties, if the 50 support gives way, price is destined for the 100 where it will likely bounce for a relief rally. Pope Powell or King Donnie may provide happy talk to try and bounce stocks out of the gate tomorrow or tonight. Donnie is aware of the futures market so look for him to spew some type of happy talk between 4 PM EST and 6 PM EST today to help create a recovery from his selloff.

Watch the 150-day MA going forward since it is a key bull/bear cyclical market indicator. It went flat in late March and then turned down in April signaling a cyclical bear market, however, the stick-saves occur and by late May, the 150 was sloping higher again signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. She is flattening again so watch it closely and it will help you announce the start of the cyclical bear.

The Fibonacci retracements for the huge rally from April to present are shown above. Keystone mentioned Fibonacci and Mandelbrot at the last party and his red Solo cup was taken away and he was asked to leave. If price falls to the 100-day MA support at 6327 and collapses through, price has a date with the 38% Fib retracement at 6073-ish. This target is at that juicy gap big enough to drive a truck through (orange circle). There are lots of gaps that need filled down below while the bears buttoned-up the top nicely not leaving a gap behind to be concerned about.

The comical thing about the chart above is the never-ending rampant complacency and euphoric bullishness that refuses to die. A -3% mini-crash that wipes out the last month's of gains, and $2 trillion off the stock market cap, in only 5 hours, is viewed as no big deal. Nothing to see here, move along. Naked Gun. Piece of cake. A minor flesh wound. Monty Python. No problemmo say the bulls.

The Aroon green line shows that all the bulls remain bullish the stock market and comically the red line shows that all the bears remain 100% bullish the stock market. The bears are slightly more bullish than the bulls. That is hilarious. Traders are champing at the bit to buy the dips in the week ahead. Traders and investors believe the stock market is at a permanently high plateau and will only go up and never go down again a la Irving Fisher in 1929, and a la the Wall Street analysts now in 2025.

If you are long the stock market, get on your knees and start praying since there is likely many weeks, months and perhaps a few years ahead of lower stock market prices. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:44 PM EST: King Donnie rides to the rescue with happy talk saying the China tariff drama will work out; "it will all be fine." Trumpski slaps dirtbag Dictator Xi with the back of his small orange hand saying that the communist tyrant "had a bad moment" and then threatens China with a depression capitalizing the 'D' in his baby tweet. The happy talk is music to trader's ears and they trip over each other to buy, buy, buy. S&P futures explode a percent higher up +65 points. Everyone is singing Happy Days Are Here Again buying the dip. La, la, la. Wheee. Whooopie! Say, the SPX pops +65 points tomorrow. That would place price at 6618-ish. The 6600-6620 price support for the last month failed on the way down, so it becomes resistance, and price may rebound on the Donnie happy talk to test this resistance and make a bounce or die decision. As per Keybot the Quant, that is now short, watch banks, commodities, volatility and copper.

Note Added Monday Evening, 10/13/25: In the Evening, as Zep would sing, the SPX recovers to 6655 with the 20-day MA resistance at 6669 only 14 bucks away. The 50-day MA support is at 6538 and it was not tested although price was real close. The area between the 20 and 50 at 6538-6669 is noise but if price breaks out higher above 6669, the bulls win big going forward. The bears win big if price retreats and falls through 6538. The King Donnie happy talk making nice with China in his latest baby tweets creates the rally that does not recover all the losses from Friday. The stochastics on the daily chart are sub 50% in bear territory wanting price to come back down. The SPX weekly chart has topped-out with neggie d as previously explained so that means a multi-week down move has started. Even if price is buoyant for a day or three, it should roll over to resume the downtrend expected in the weekly timeframe. The SPX is a turd that is circling the bowl and getting flushed. The SPX monthly chart is topped-out except for the MACD line squeezing out a tiny higher high, however, the monthly action continues for another 3 weeks. If stocks are flushed, as per the daily and weekly charts, the MACD line will move lower for the month. Watch it closely because that is how you can call the bigtime top in the stock market. It should be now but if the MACD line can squeeze out a bit more life, THE top would simply be November or December. Look for the negative divergence The stock market is pile of bile, folks. Retail stocks, banks, volatility, commodities and copper are all that matter right now. 

SPX S&P 500 5-Minute Chart Shows -3% Crash after King Donnie Decrees Tariffs Against China

The S&P 500 Index, the SPX, the United States Stock Market, crashes -3% on Friday, 10/10/25, the worst day since April, after King Donnie threatens tariffs against China in retaliation for restrictions on rare-earth minerals. The orange one opened his pie hole at 11 AM and stocks went off the cliff. $2 trillion in market value is vaporized in 5 hours. We hardly knew ye.

Equities were overdo for a pullback for the last few weeks so it appears the downside has finally showed its ugly face. The one-day mini-crash yesterday wipes out all gains over the last month and many stocks that were positive this year are now negative.

And in true petulant child mode, Donnie quickly tweets and spouts, and jumps up and down, that he will not meet with dirtbag Dictator Xi at an upcoming summit because of the rift. However, as soon as the orange head saw what he was doing to the stock market, he backpedaled fast but the damage was already done. 

Traders and investors expected a happy ending with the US-China tariff saga going forward, but instead the cops bust the massage parlor, everyone scatters, and there will be no happy endings. In addition, the government shutdown continues.

The democrats probably do not care since their popularity is below used car salesmen, telemarketers and lawyers, and figure that common folks are hurt the most and the kitchen-table issues (high cost of food, insurance, electricity so the wealthy class can make money off AI, etc...) will be front and center in the mid-term elections in less than 13 months. The negativity from the shutdown will likely hurt republicans more than democrats especially since they control government. Trumpski promised on the campaign trail to lower prices from day one just like he said he could stop the Ukraine War in 24 hours. Politicians lie to get elected. That is why tens of millions of Americans no longer give a sh*t.

The republicans tell democrats to take the clean bill, that the House passed but it is stalled in the Senate, and lick their shoes while they are down there. That is not a good way to find a solution. The republicans may look bad by going home and not staying in Washington, DC. Politics is all about perceptions not truth. That is why America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes; the country is corrupt to the core with transparency on a milk carton (missing). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short yesterday before munch time at SPX 6692. King Donnie is threatening tariffs on China in retaliation for rare earth mineral restrictions. The rift creates a Black Friday.

The banksters failed first, then volatility, then commodities so any recovery would likely be in the reverse order. The banks will be reporting earnings so that will be key. The VIX trading overnight Sunday into Monday morning will provide a heads-up on the path forward.

Keybot the Quant

XLF Financials Daily Chart

As the search for the Godot stock market top continues with negative divergence screaming for a major spankdown, the banks have already started to receive a neggie d smackdown in the daily time frame.

The XLF daily chart above shows the red rising wedge a bearish pattern. It is text book for the price collapse out the bottom. The red lines show the universal neggie d across all chart indicators so the top was an easy call in the daily time frame. Stochastics are sub 50% in bear territory so watch the RSI that is only dipping its toe in the sub 50% bear waters for now.

You will know there is lots of downside ahead if the RSI goes sub 50% and if the 50-day MA at 53.01 is lost. This support is holding price up for now call it the 52.80-53.00 support level. If it fails, which is likely, price will next target the price support levels at 52-ish and 51-ish and then the important 200-day MA at 50.47. The orange circles show the juicy gaps down below that will need filled going forward.

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market but is focused on volatility and banks. You can see that the banks are going to lead the stock market lower. The XLF weekly and monthly charts are neggie d so this is the likely start of the major top and pullback led lower by the banksters.

The Keybot the Quant robot is calling out XLF 53.12 as the key bull/bear line in the sand. If this is lost, it likely signals the start of a major pullback not only for the banksters but the broad stock market (multi-day, multi-week, multi-month). It's fun. Don't you know that you are living in your own Cartoon? If you think we'll rise above, you'd better look around, you'll see, it's a mountain made of sand crumbling under me. Time to turn up the amp. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 10/5/25: XLF jumped higher Friday morning and then chopped sideways ending at 53.72 that is 60 cents, 1.1%, above the 53.12 line in the sand. Watch this drama closely in the week ahead.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: XLF drops to 52.16 trying to use the 100-day MA at the 52.25 palindrome as support.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and 2-Hour Charts; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Price Extended; SPX All-Time High is 6731.94 and All-Time Closing High is 6715.35 on 10/2/25

October and Q4 begins with a new euphoric all-time record high at 6731.94 and new all-time closing high at 6715.35 both on 10/2/25 (today). The Godot stock market top continues (it is supposed to be here but it is missing). Every time the neggie d spanks price lower over the last few weeks, there is always a stick-save ready to save the day including the ongoing hype on Fed rate cuts, the euphoric AI party, robust consumer spending by the wealthy that raped the country for all its worth over the last five decades, analyst calls for SPX 7K, tame inflation data, etc...

The stock market complacency is verified by the low put/call ratios that have been in place for many weeks; it is atypical behavior further reinforcing the idea that the current historic top is likely on par with the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble top and other major tops. Even the vicar is getting in on the action buying a 3x long ETF with the collection basket money and other church funds. During the homily, he said the church will be able to afford the new addition this year because the stock market is unstoppable. Praise the Lord. You know, all you have to do, is send ten dollars to the church of the sacred bleeding heart of Jesus, located somewhere in Los Angeles, California. Far Away Eyes.

When September started, the business media were talking doom and gloom because of stock market seasonality. The worst was expected and it turned out to be a bigtime bullish month. For October, the month when major crashes tend to occur, the media is not talking doom and gloom. Quite the contrary. The Wall Street consensus remains for SPX 7K and nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead. Some opine about a pullback but they say it will be short-lived and a great buying opportunity (bullish sentiment off the charts).

Despite the likely historic stock market top printing right now in real-time, with a serious drawdown expected going forward, the following analysts say all is groovy with lots more record highs ahead including SPX 7K; Evercore's Emanuel, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Blackrock's Rieder, Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus, Fundstrat's Lee, Yardeni, CNBC's Cramer, Citi's Chronett, Principal Asset's Shah, Federated Hermes Chiavarone, Oaktree's Marks, Renaissance Macro's deGraaf, JPM is telling everyone to buy the dips going forward, TPW's Pelosky, HSBC's Kettner, Goldman Sach's Kostin, Truist Wealth's Lerner, Deutsche Bank's permabull Binky Chadha, Barclay's strategists say buy, Wells Fargo strategists are bullish, permabull Wharton Professor Siegel proclaims that stocks will continue far higher, and BMO calls for SPX 7K by the end of the year.

Do you get the feeling that everybody and his bro is super bullish and long the stock market expecting to get out easy if something was to happen? If you are a smart person, you always look to see where the exits are whenever you enter a room.

Maybe these Wall Street bigwigs are correct? The bulls are walking around with SPX 6.7K hats and the screenprinter is excited already imprinting the SPX 6.8K hats for delivery in a couple days. He is also receiving orders for SPX 6.9K and SPX 7.0K hats. Harry the hatman says he hopes that King Donnie's tariffs do not hold-up his shipment of cheap red hats from China that he hopes to imprint.

It is time for another spankdown for the stock market and then we will find out if a stick-save occurs again. The very short term 2-hour and short-term daily charts are shown above. Both are cooked with neggie d. The hype above can perform the stick-save and buoy the price to another high, but the same underlying sickness remains and the the neggie d will form again, like now.

The SPX is ready to fall in both the hourly and daily time frames so perhaps from tomorrow through all of next week. The charts were poised for the US Monthly Jobs Report number tomorrow morning but the corrupt demopublicans and republocrats shut the government down to screw common people. King Donnie brags that he will sh*t-can thousands of employees permanently. Good luck to those families. Ironically, many of those people receiving pink slips voted for Trumpski and even gave him 20 bucks to place a campaign sign in their front yards. Sucka's.

Let's drill down on the charts a little bit. On the 2-hour, the red lines show the neggie d in place that created the smackdown four candlesticks (8 trading hours) ago. Price is buoyant again as would be expected with a new quarter starting when new money gets put to work. This activity typically creates lift in the stock market. A couple days are in the bag already for October, so the new money buoyancy will fade away.

Check for continued negative divergence if price rallies tomorrow after the opening bell. The 2-hour prints a candlestick at 9:30 AM EST, 10 AM and 12 noon so by munchtime stocks will already be falling lower or the 3 new candlesticks will tell you the story (the high may be delayed until after lunchtime). The top deviation band is violated so the middle band at 6673, and rising, and the lower band at 6613, and rising, are on the table, to start the downside fun.

The 2-hour and daily charts compliment each other with their ugliness. The daily chart is the same dealio as the 2-hour. The universal negative divergence wants to see a spankdown begin and run for a few days. Can it be stick-saved this time? It will likely drop for 3 or 4 days before we find that answer so that puts us probably at mid-week next week to see if intervention occurs to keep the stock market buoyant.

The monthly charts have new candlesticks so it would be a good time to see how those tops are progressing (not well, the SPX weekly and monthly charts remain neggie d). How cool would it be if this is THE top (for many years)? Maybe a Black Friday tomorrow will kick it off? That would be super cool.

The bears have a turn at bat starting tomorrow so we shall see if they can finally start the downside and lock the historic Godot top into place.

Keybot the Quant remains longs through this major topping saga the last few weeks at 6200-6700 now call it 6200-6800. The robot is fixated on volatility, banks and commodities as the three main drivers of the stock market currently. Watch XLF 53.12 and VIX 16.87. If the banks fail and volatility spikes, stocks will drop like rocks, and the downside kicked-in by the neggie d above and rampant complacency will have legs to the downside. If VIX remains below 16.87 and XLF above 53.12, the bulls are fine.

All of you are ready for the fun, right? While we wait, and then watch the rollover tomorrow and next week, we can groove to some Green Onions at harvest season here in Pennsylvania. Booker T and Daryl do a great job. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 10/5/25: More AI hype creates an upside Friday morning. Wheee! Whoopie! However, stocks roll over at munch time giving up the gains. VIX spiked above the critical 16.87 line in the sand only to reverse just as fast. On Friday, 10/3/25, the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6750.87 and new all-time closing high at 6715.79. Friday did a good job of keeping long hands in the stock market and encouraging dip-buying, as the bigwigs tiptoe past the guard dogs and sneak out the back door, to let Joe Retail, Anita Sucka, and Carlos Bagholder hold the bag. Maybe a Black Monday? The news from the Middle East is happy with the terrorist group Hamas supposedly releasing all Israeli hostages, dead or alive, in the coming days, so that may create an up lift to stocks to start the week, but the pile of sh*t stock market can only be propped-up for so long.

Note Added Saturday, 10/11/25: A mini-Black Friday occurs yesterday after King Donnie threatens tariffs on China in retaliation for restrictions on rare earth minerals. The SPX all-time record high is 6764.58 on Thursday, 10/11/25 and all-time closing high is 6753.72 on Wednesday, 10/8/25. The SPX drops to 6553 starting to receive the neggie d slapdown.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.