SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation

As previously explained, the SPX is in a multi-week down move. Trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The weakness should continue in the weekly time frame until positive divergence forms in that time frame. In the shorter term time frame, the daily chart, you can see she has been trying to set-up with possie d.

A few days ago, all the chart indicators were positively diverged sans the MACD line but as always happens when trying to herd kittens, as you try to wrangle the last one, another one gets away. The money flow has now turned weak and bleak again. The RSI is possie d but never reached oversold territory. The histogram is bottomed and wants to see a relief rally. Ditto the stochastics that are also oversold agreeable to a bounce.

Thus, a jog move of one or two more bottoms are needed to place THE bottom in the daily time frame when the MACD and money flow turn possie d. That means either up-down-up and away, or up-down-up-down-up and away. That lines up the week ahead as the bottom take your pick of the day. You have to wait for the possie d to form for all indicators before you can call the bottom. If stocks bounce on Monday, then slump on Tuesday and you see the MACD and money flow go possie d, you will know the bottom is in on the daily basis.

These markets are erratic and unstable so sometimes what may happen, especially with King Donnie now siding with Putin in the Ukraine War helping Vlad kill Ukrainians, is that price may collapse to begin the week. Maybe a Black Monday or Black Tuesday? If the mood turns sufficiently sour, now that Donnie has tied Zelensky to the mast and is allowing Putin to take target practice, stocks may collapse next week. If this happens, keep looking for possie d to form, but with a big down draft, the daily chart may resign itself to then not bottom until the weekly chart bottoms so keep an eye on the weekly chart to see when possie d forms.

The brown arrows show the tight standard deviation bands that squeeze out humongous moves but they do not predict direction. Down was the obvious direction this time. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 5977, and dropping, is on the table for the relief rally (it will drop a lot more as price moves higher to potentially meet it). 

The 200-day MA at 5733 was all the rage last week especially for chart novices. Everyone becomes a chart expert when stocks tank even those that diss technical analysis. Sure, the 200 is key but the 50-wk MA at 5648 and 12-mth MA at 5674 (cyclical market indicator) are far more important. That is why price came down to the Satanic 5666 for a look-see at this critical 5648-5674 support area that is also a juicy gap from September.

Watch the MACD and money flow to call the bottom on the daily basis. The Fed meeting is next Wednesday, 3/19/25, so if there is more selling it would probably occur in the week ahead and then stocks will likely want to be buoyant next week into the Fed expecting Santa Powell to deliver candy for the wealthy. St Patty's Day is Monday, 3/14/25, so maybe people will be drunk then and buying stocks in a stupor. The full moon peaks for the month this Friday, 3/14/25, so stocks may feel a lift from Thursday into the Fed meeting on hump day.

Trump is causing lots of chaos and turmoil in the stock market so his mouth on Sunday (tomorrow) likely determines what the stock market does on Monday. Isn't that ridiculous? And sickening? What is all that chatter about people not clapping for the boy with cancer? Anyone with a heart should have at least clapped for the young man especially if you have helped someone with a cancer illness, and watched them die.

Keystone did not waste his life watching the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown address Congress in that windbag speech of almost 2 hours. That is hilarious that anyone would sit through that; if so, you need to get a life. Only 1 in 10 Americans watched the Trump speech and most of them likely flipped the channel at some point. Wasn't it all the same Donnie dribble? Why don't you do something productive with your life instead of listening to that verbal diarrhea from the demopublicans and republocrats. One political party is as corrupt as the other.

Keystone was asked an opinion about the boy with cancer at the speech. Keystone ponders the question, using his wisdom gained from the Shaolin masters, to posit one question to all of you corrupt people. Is the worst person the one who did not clap to encourage the sick child, or is the worst person the one who used the child as a prop?

Billy was in Milan, Italy, and hanging out with a street musician, playing an AC/DC tune. The guy asked Billy for a tip (about the music business). Billy told him, "Buy a new guitar." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cyclical Stock Market Indicators

Two of Keystone's key cyclical stock market indicators are the SPX monthly chart with 12-mth MA cross and the NYA weekly chart with 40-wk MA cross. Huh? What is he talking about? What language is that? The charts show how the current cyclical bull market started in 2023 and has not looked back.

Both charts, however, are testing their key levels that would usher in an ugly cyclical bear market for US equities. The SPX was flying high but topped-out with negative divergence as explained and forecasted by Keystone before it happened (look back at and study previous charts if you want to learn how to call tops and bottoms).

The SPX 12-month MA is at 5674 and rising. Price makes a low at the ominous and Satanic 5666 but bounces to end the Friday session at 5770. The 12-mth MA ruptures but the bulls recover. If the SPX loses the 5672-5674 level, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market and many weeks and months of sogginess and downside is ahead for stocks.

The NYA is the NYSE Composite a broad measure of US equities. The 40-week MA is 19228 and rising. Price makes a low at 19291 but bounces to end the Friday session at 19573. The 40-wk MA is not yet punctured but price was in the neighborhood. Usually when price is sneaking around the neighborhood looking in windows, it will knock on the 40-wk MA door to test its support strength. If the NYA loses the 19224-19228 level, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market and many weeks and months of sogginess and downside is ahead for stocks.

If both metrics lose their critical moving averages and forecast a cyclical bear market ahead, stocks have a long way to drop.

If utilities drop, a crash may occur. If UTIL loses the 50-wk MA at 983 (see previous chart), and the above two metrics fail, it is highly likely that the US stock market will crash. It's fun.

Watch the SPX and NYA closely and if you see either slip into a cyclical bear market profile, and you remain long the stock market, it is time for you to clench your buttocks, and think of excuses you will tell your wife for losing your children's college fund. Don't Go Back to Rockville. You'll wind up in some factory. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator; US LABOR RECESSION IS 18 MONTHS ALONG FACING A BIG TEST; US LABOR RECESSION CONTINUES INTO 19 MONTHS AFTER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 4.1%

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 18 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; 1-1/2 YEARS!! The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot. The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) started in 2024 and continues in 2025. This link takes you to the prior labor recession article with more detail and it lists the layoffs occurring in 2025.

How can this be? If America is in labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, than it is guaranteed to be in an overall economic recession. Not anymore, buckaroo. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype has spiked the Fed punchbowl creating a stock market orgy so obscene that Caligula would blush.

The 15 years of Federal Reserve money-printing gooses stocks higher enriching the wealthy that own the stock market and only creates a few token jobs. It has created a sick economic environment where price discovery no longer exists.

America is a crony capitalism system that creates the land of the have's and have-not's. 30 million in the elite privileged class, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, screwed the other 300 million Americans over the last 5 decades. The rich are loaded with cash and it is their spending, along with chips and AI hype, that has kept the economy afloat the last year.

The top 10% wealthy Americans, the 30 million, account for nearly one-half the consumer spending in the US. 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. Welcome to the United States, land of crony capitalism, well, not for too much longer.

And we cannot forget King Donnie, the Tariff Man. He promises to slash banking regulations, provide tax cuts, start cutting prices on day one, and provide a chicken in every pot. How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips are moving. Countries are onto Donnie's schtick and willing to call his bluff.

King Donnie brags that he knows Washington, DC, now since he had a first term but what the orange head does not understand is that everyone knows him as well. Donnie may find the path ahead more difficult than he thinks since people will now be willing to call his bluffs since they know him to be a bloviating blowhard. Trump is back pedaling again on the Canada and Mexico tariffs; the situation changes every 10 minutes. Way to create stability, orange head. 

On the good side of the ledger that prevents the overall US recession is chips and AI but that show is getting old and people are less inclined to buy tickets. America's wealthy, that were made filthy rich by the Fed's money-printing, are starting to tighten their wallets and reduce spending. It will not be long before the Mercedes, Escalades and BMW's begin showing up in Aldi, Dollar General and Walmart parking lots. Who does not like a bargain, right?

As Keystone explained in the last article, most businesses sh*t-can their employees in the January through March period since this is when the new yearly budgets begin and it is nice to start with the dead weight gone. The prior article lists the layoffs that occurred this year and it will probably surprise people because the job losses are not as publicized as in the old days. A one-day blurb will say a company is laying workers off and then it disappears.

The 18-month labor recession faces a major test on Friday morning 3/7/25. The unemployment rate is at 4.0%. If the rate remains at 4.0% or higher, the labor recession remains in place. If the rate drops to 3.9% or lower, wow, the labor recession ends and the labor recovery begins, which would be surprising, but who knows nowadays? Another month's data would be needed to confirm the direction change since sometimes the one data point will only be a blip and not matter. The time has come to decide. Beds Are Burning.

The stage is set for a pivotal US Monthly Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST Friday morning. A 4.0% rate and higher means pain and misery is ahead. A 3.9% rate and lower means that the analysts saying the economy is strong are correct.

Do you hear that? The BLS jobs circus is coming back to town. If you listen close, you can hear the calliope. Will the unemployment rate remain at 4.0% and higher telling you that recession is on the come, or will it be 3.9% and lower signaling that better times are ahead or at least a stasis? Choose your poison.

Note Added 8:27 AM EST: The Challenger Job Report lays an egg. US companies announce over 172K layoffs for last month a big +245% increase from January. For 172,000 families, there is a brown egg in that Easter basket. About one-third of the cuts, 62K, are the federal job cuts by Emperor Musk and DOGE. Yesterday, the ADP Jobs data was weaker than expected reporting only 77K jobs. People are becoming nervous about the labor picture so the build-up to the big US Monthly Jobs Report in 24 hours intensifies.

Note Added 8:31 AM EST: US Jobless Claims are 221K below the prior 242K and continuing the zombie sideways funk week after week and month after month. Unemployment Claims are not going up, and not going down. Continuing claims are 1.897 million above the expected 1.874 million. The roadies are setting-up the circus tents for tomorrow morning's big jobs carnival act where American lives will be juggled in the air by Uncle Sam balancing himself on stilts. The band is getting ready with the music and all look forward to the arrival of the Ringmaster BLS.

Note Added 5:47 PM EST: HPE, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, takes the pipe in the afterhours the stock in collapse down -19%. HPE is axing 5% of its workforce or 2,500 people. Happy Easter. These employees in their fleece vests did not know they were giving up their jobs for Lent. Now grab a box from the copy room, pack up your family vacation pictures, the potted plant that needs watered, the wall plaques including the certificate from that worthless career-building seminar, and the change in the top desk drawer for the vending machine, and get out. Oh yeah, leave your door card with Betty and you will not be permitted access in these offices or the building again. Thanks for your dedication to the company, and giving up your kid's soccer games to kiss our arse, and for working weekends and evenings without pay, and ratting on other employees behind their backs thinking it would get you ahead, we appreciate all that hard work, now get the hell out. The talk up and down Wall Street this evening is the big US Monthly Jobs Report. Will it be 4.0% or 3.9%? For now, the evening's entertainment continues with dancing bee girl. Give her some encouragement. No Rain.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 4:22 AM EST: The jobs circus is in full swing this morning with analysts walking the tightrope making predictions on the headline jobs number and unemployment rate. Last month's numbers were 143K jobs, a drop to a 4.0% unemployment rate (see above chart), average hourly earnings at 0.5% month on month and 4.1% year on year. Average weekly hours were 34.1. The consensus estimate for this month, with the numbers dropping in 4 hours, is 160K jobs, a steady 4.0% rate, average hourly earnings at 0.3% month on month and 4.1% year on year. Average weekly hours are expected to come in at 34.2. Note that the annual wages number is 4.1% illustrating the Fed's difficulty in finding a path through the current financial and economic maze. When wages start running above 4% or so, steady or rising inflation is guaranteed. If wages are below 4%, that can keep inflation in check. If people are not getting raises, they are not spending as much money, so less money is chasing goods and services. At 4.1% wages, it is another number in no-man's land where it can teeter either way. As explained above, however, the unemployment rate is what matters this morning. A rate of 4.0% and higher is gloom, despair, and agony on thee with bad stuff ahead. A rate of 3.9% and lower paves the way to the end of the 18-mth labor recession and start of a labor recovery that means the economy is stronger than the naysayers think.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 5:18 AM EST: With about 3 hours remaining before the big Jobs Report, S&P futures are up +18, meaningless until the jobs numbers, VIX is at 24.83 creating market angst, US dollar index 103.59, WTIC oil 67.20, Brent 70.37, and copper is down -0.6%. The yields are; 2-year 3.96%, 5-year 4.04%, 10-year 4.27%, 30-year 4.57%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is 31 bips, not inverted. European indexes are taking the pipe down from -0.5% to -1.5% playing catch-up to the bloodbath in the US stock indexes yesterday. King Donnie's Tariff and Trade Wars create market chaos.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 8:34 AM EST: The Labor Recession continues with the unemployment rate moving higher to 4.1%. Interestingly, the rate was a hair away from rounding-up to 4.2%. The Jobs Report is 151K jobs, a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1% rate, average hourly earnings at 0.3% month on month and 4.0% year on year. The year on year is below the 4.1% expected. Average weekly hours are steady at 34.2. The  U-6 rate is 8.0% popping from 7.5%. The labor participation rate is 62.4% down from the prior 62.6%.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/7/25, at 8:38 AM EST: S&P +15. VIX 24.10. USD 103.69. WTIC oil 67.36. Brent 70.53. Futures pop higher on the report since people expect more rate cuts in a recession that will goose stocks higher to make the wealthy class richer. The yields are; 2-year 3.91%, 5-year 4.01%, 10-year 4.24%, 30-year 4.56%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is 33 bips. The short end yields move down more than the long end widening the spread by a couple bips. The circus is over for another month, and the wagons are rolling out of town. Wagon Wheel. The carnival will be back, however, on April 4th after the King Donnie Tariff War explodes on 4/2/25. Uncertainty and market confusion rules the day until 4/2/25. If you squint, and look way off in the distance, you can see what looks like the Godot Recession coming into view. 

Note Added Saturday, 3/8/25, at 5:00 AM EST: The stock market staggers around on Friday, like a drunk in Times Square, finishing up +0.6% to 5770 above the 200-day MA at 5733 but dipping down to a LOD at 5666 stabbing at the gap from last September. Price bounced off the 50-wk MA at 5648 that creates strong support along with the price action during July, August and September. Most importantly, since it is a cyclical bear market signal, is the 12-month MA at 5674 also where price bounced. It can get real ugly if SPX 5650 fails and the stock market will likely crash. There is no joy, as Jade sings. Isn't it funny how everyone becomes a chartist when markets tank even folks that constantly diss technical trading. Now is no different. Idiots talking about a subject they do not understand. Watch the 50-wk and especially the 12-mth instead of the 200, jackasses. King Donnie is doing a good job of creating chaos in the US and around the world, and now he has blood on his small pale white hands. Trump is screwing our ally Ukraine cutting off intelligence leaving them defenseless. Dirtbag Dictator Putin continues sending missiles killing Ukrainians. The murderer Putin launches 40 strikes onto Ukraine soil over the last day while Donnie holds Zelensky's hands behind his back. Way to go, Donnie, you now have the blood of 23 dead Ukrainians on your hands (the Russian missiles would have been shot down if Trump was not screwing Ukraine). People are wondering why prices are going up when the orange head promised to drop prices from day one. You be stupid if you believed the lie. The stock market is watching the Donnie Trump Tariff and Trade Wars and the Ukraine War to see if the orange head continues kissing Putin's behind while he kills Ukrainians. What a mess. Hey, is that the Godot Recession coming down Main Street? The American circus continues led by 76 Trombones in the big parade, with a hundred and ten cornets close at hand, also followed by rows and rows, of the finest virtuosos.

Note Added Saturday, 3/8/25, at 12:00 PM EST: The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator continues forecasting the ongoing Labor Recession as explained above since the unemployment rate is back up to 4.1%, however, trading is all about what have you done for me lately? What about next month? Looking at the Keystone Model for the next US Monthly Jobs Report on 4/4/25, the unemployment rate can drop to 4.0% and the Labor Recession will still be in play, by a hair, but it still will be ongoing. Of course, any rate that comes in at 4.0% and higher on 4/4/25 means bad things for the economy going forward. The Labor Recession will stop and become a recovery if the unemployment rate drops to 3.9% or lower on 4/4/25. Do you think it is likely that the rate will drop to 3.9% when the rate is now at 4.1% and with a little more oomph yesterday it could have easily been 4.2%? And the impact from the DOGE losses are not yet fully realized. If making a reasonable prognostication, the unemployment rate next month will likely be 4.1%-4.3% so guess what? The Godot Recession parade is now on full display for everyone to see marching past the post office, bank and super market and now approaching the Town Square, where a monument to Keystone exists, the Thinker on the toilet. It does not look good from here forward, folks. Time to gird your loins for the recession. The gifted, and mentally-disturbed writer Ernest Hemingway, when asked about going bankrupt, he said, "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly." He said at first it was gradual and did not feel any different, but then it was sudden and jarring and his life changed forever, kind of like what happens when a recession arrives suddenly, and the unemployment rate explodes higher like a rocket ship over a quick 2 or 3 jobs reports.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; 50-Wk MA Ruptures at 983 Opening the Trap-Door Ushering in Bad Things for the US Stock Market Ahead

Mayday! Mayday! The utility trap-door opens and stocks fall through as previously explained. This is horrific news for the US stock market and portends very bad things today and moving forward for equities.

Danger Will Robinson! Danger! The stock market is in a crash profile right now. The only thing that can save it is the bulls pushing UTIL back above 983.39. This is fun. There must be a comeuppance for all of your greed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:54 AM: UTIL is at 982.53 and the 50-wk MA is 983.41. This is a back kiss. The bulls need to regain 983.41 or they are going to be bludgeoned with dull knives by Carrie.

Note Added 12:08 PM EST: UTIL recovers above 984. The trap-door is re-secured. Stocks recover with indexes turning positive. Cats and dogs are playing together. Nothing to see here, move along, move along, break it up folks, nothing to see, nothing to see, move along now. Watch UTIL 983 like a hawk because the stock market will dive off a cliff if the 983 fails.

Note Added 12:12 PM EST: Here is the back test from the top side with price coming back to 983.60 with 50-wk MA at 983.44. It is time to bounce or die again. What say you Mr Utility. How is all that AI build-up going? Does it look like you are wasting your money?

Note Added 12:14 PM EST: Yinz will have to watch it. Price is 983.46 and the 50-wk is 983.46. The fate of the US stock market for months ahead is hanging by a thead. Looks like a sneaky bounce again. Keep watching it.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/6/25, at 4:10 AM EST: UTIL finishes the day at the 989 palindrome. Nothing to see here, people, move along. The trap-door is shut and the bulls live to fight another day. Watch UTIL 983 closely because if it fails, and the trap-door reopens, and you are long stocks, you are going to lose a lot of money.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/6/25, at 9:44 AM EST: Utilities collapse at the opening bell. UTIL drops to 970. The trap-door opens and the stock market is annihilated. You ain't seen nothing yet. The stock market may crash. Be very afraid. It's fun. The SPX is down 90 points at 5752.

Note Added Saturday, 3/8/25: The bulls manage to once again close the trap-door so the opening to Hades that leads to the Lake of Fire is temporarily avoided. UTIL ends the week at 991 so the drama continues next week. For now, the significant crash in stocks is avoided but if you see UTIL 983 fail again, the US stock market will likely have a religious experience (crash).

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Ominous Descending Triangle with Baseline at 66.66 that Opens the Door to Hades

The ominous descending triangle pattern was shown in early October. Price came down to tease the ominous 66.66 support, and baseline of the triangle, for the bounce or die decision, and oil bounced. More sideways chop suey occurs for five months and we are back in the same spot again.

The descending triangle is a bearish pattern. If the 66.66 baseline fails, the door to Hades will open for the oil market. Price will collapse. If it does, it means the planet realizes that a deep recession has started, or is about to, and it may be an all-out 1930's depression-redux. As the worldwide central banker largess fades away, and true price discovery finally appears, there are going to be a lot of companies and individuals swimming naked. It will be an ugly sight.

130 was the peak high and if 67 is the base that is 63 difference but it may be unrealistic to expect 3 if the baseline at 66.66 fails. Oil did get down to 6.50 at the start of the pandemic in April 2020 so never say never. Even the second touch in would be the 123 high so that difference is 56 so the downside target would be 10 or 11. That is a price when everyone is saying, "We don't need no steenkin' oil."

King Donnie Trump, in his paper Burger King hat, has sent the oil rigs into the fields to drill, baby drill, but for what? If no one wants the steenkin' oil, what do you do with it? The oil companies appreciate the sentiment and may be sending their rigs out, especially to drive by the Whitehouse to appease baby Trump, but those rigs sit idle. If there is no money in it for them, they will not drill, baby drill. The only drilling that is happening is at the dentist's office.

Price has been steady as she goes but this does not go on forever. It is bounce or die time. WTIC oil is at ..... 66.42. What the hell?  No, 66.27..... mayday!.....mayday!! Holy smokes, the thing is failing as this is typed. West Texas oil is fighting for its life right now. It is in major trouble if it cannot bounce.

Looking at the charts, the daily chart is set up with possie d, the MACD is setting up so actually a relief rally would be expected in the daily time frame but the weekly chart remains weak and bleak. Thus, price would be expected to bottom today and tomorrow and bounce for a few days or week or so, then roll back over and come down probably taking out 66.66 definitively. Keystone is not playing oil long or short right now. I'll Fix Your Flat Tire, Merle, don't get your guitar pickin' fingers covered with earl. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:00 AM EST: WTIC 66.08. Brent 69.24.

Note Added 11:51 AM EST: Oil is taking the pipe down about -4%. WTIC 65.25. Brent 68.37. The descending triangle baseline is giving way. If you are long oil, you are clenching your buttocks.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/6/25, at 4:16 AM EST: WTIC crude is at 66.42. Brent oil is at 69.36. The drama continues. If you are long oil, do you feel lucky, punk? Well, do you?

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Negative Divergence; Overbot; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Significant Long-Term Stock Market Top with Many Months or Years of Downside Ahead

Did all of you do your homework as instructed in the last SPX monthly chart? Oh my. It looks like a bunch of deadbeats. It would be worthwhile to go back and read that post to refresh your memory as to what was going on. Oh, there are a couple of you that were watching closely. Yes, they see it. The United States stock market has placed a significant long-term top with many months or years of downside ahead. The MACD told you so.

Remember, as of a month ago, the SPX monthly chart was neggie d across all indicators except for the MACD line in nosebleed territory. The homework assignment was to watch the MACD to see if it goes neggie d and, if you pull out a magnifying glass, you can see the MACD roll over (flat) as price continued to make matching or higher highs, in fact, an all time record high at 6147 and all-time record closing high at 6144 on 2/19/25.

The multi-year party is over, turn out the lights. Willie, give us a few bars. It is time to pay for your sins at that party. It is time for short-seller Carrie to mentally lock the doors and deliver the comeuppance to the greedy longs that cannot escape. Folks, this chart is important because it is long-term, multi-months if not multi-year. The stock market is toast long-term. It is a piece of sh*t.

The red lines display the neggie d which means there is no more fuel in the tanks, not even fumes, to take stocks higher. The neggie d spankdown begins over the last couple weeks but this is nothing in the grand scheme long-term. Anyone in the stock market should exit their longs and bring on some shorts and adopt the philosophy of shorting the rallies. The long side has no future for the next couple years.

If you only want to be long the market and do not want to play the short side, fine, exit your positions and let that cash sit there for the next year or two and do nothing. You will be glad you did. You can buy the SPX when it is perhaps down to 2400-3500 next year (2026).

Price has violated the upper band so a move back to the middle band at 5281 and lower band at 4127, both rising sharply, are on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed.

The ADX is not calling out any strong trend. The last strong trend (pink box) was in 2018 and early 2019 when stocks were rallying but that petered out in 2019. The massive move in stocks since then is just a pile of fluff and floating garbage pumped-up by easy money. It will be fun to see price discovery rear its ugly face after many years of Fed money-printing and Congressional largess and everyone finds out what material goods are actually worth including stocks, bonds, real estate, collectables, diamonds, gold, everything. It is going to be quite a sight.

The Aroon is comical. The selling so far is meaningless. The green line shows that nearly all stock market bulls remain almost 100% bullish. Tell me something I don't know, Captain Obvious. The Aroon red line shows that nearly 100% of the stock market bears are bullish for stocks. Pause for laughter. The complacency remains off the charts. People believe that stocks will go up forever no matter what happens. A dirty nuke can detonate and everyone would be mortgaging their house to buy the stock market. It is funny. It is more proof of the bubblicious top. Don needs to sing, "Tiny Bubbles." Come on, folks, everyone sing along.

The blue circles show distribution taking place. That is the smart money selling to the dumb money, which is many of you reading this. Some of the big investment houses trimmed stocks in late 2021 ahead of the 2022 swoon but it has been pretty tame into 2024 (last year). At the end of last year and this year, the smart money is throwing stocks overboard. That is why the talking head analysts appear on business television daily telling everyone to "buy, buy, buy!!" They need the bagholding sucka's to take the shares and hold the bag at the top.

Sadly, or humorously, a lot of you are already holding that bag. Is it stinking? Pause for laughter. Stocks have significant long-term downside ahead. There will be fits and starts but the downward bias will likely continue for most of this year if not well into 2026. Plan accordingly. Are you going to be one of the bag holding sucka's?

If you are, say, under 40 years old, that means you are generally stupid socially and few of you have street smarts, so what you need to think about is making sure you are not in the stock market for the next year or two. Instead, get yourself out of debt except for your mortgage; you should have no other debt. You have your whole life to buy stocks and do not think about doing that for a couple years, otherwise, you will lose your money going forward. Something wicked this way comes, for the next couple years. Jenny is about to get wicked.

Scroll back to previous charts. Keystone shows you the SPX daily and weekly charts so a relief rally is due but the weekly chart remains weak and bleak so probably a few days or week or so of upside and then the downside fun begins again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; US Stock Market Is Lower than When King Donnie Won the Election; Trump Bump after 11/5/24 Turns into Trump Dump

The US stock market is lower than when King Donnie won the election on 11/5/24. On that day, the trading session ended at 5782.76 as Americans cast votes for the democrat, Kamala, the cackling communist, and the republican, Donnie, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown. Trump wins the election and stocks never looked back until the last couple weeks with the tariff, DOGE, Ukraine and other dramas playing-out daily. Donnie's reality television show is already getting old and stocks tank.

Donnie promised to revitalize the economy, cut regulations (banks rally), and drop inflation from day one. You did not believe any of that dribble, did you? Sucka. Stocks rally big after the election and the bull party is dubbed the "Trump Bump" but it turned into the "Trump Dump" since stocks are lower than when the orange head won the election.

The tariffs are creating market angst since they are viewed as inflationary and consumer sentiment is going south due to the chaos and people losing jobs. Also, King Donnie's activities are a bit sloppy here and there with common folks beginning to wonder what is going on. Donnie spits on our ally Ukraine because he holds a grudge against Zelensky for not digging up dirt on Joe Biden. At the same time, Trump kisses Putin's arse. Donnie will not be happy being labeled as Putin's lapdog. Ex KGB Vlad will love the world viewing him as dominant and Donnie as submissive. When they stand together, the orange head is showing brown on the tip of his nose.

Lots of folks are comparing King Donnie to Neville Chamberlain; it is hard not to miss. It is glaring. History repeats and rhymes. It is a neon light. Sirens are going off. Donnie "Neville" Trump proclaims, "Vlad Putin? Sure, he is a murdering piece of human filth, a dictator that kills detractors by throwing them off buildings, and poisoning people in other countries, and he is the human slime that started the Ukraine War and continues killing people when he could stop the bloodshed tomorrow, and guilty of war crimes, and he has broken nearly every treaty he has ever signed (Zelensky was trying to explain this to Trump but the orange head had already turned red and was in tantrum mode), but good ole Vlad, you can trust him, we can do diplomacy with him, he is a good ole guy." It is pure jackass.

The similarities to Chamberlain's appeasement are eerie. Pray that King Donnie, wearing his paper Burger King hat, does not get us into WW III. Putin will play Trump like a violin (Zelensky was also trying to explain this but the orange head would not listen). If you combine Chamberlain and Trump, you get 'Chump'. How apropos.

Anyhoo, the year started at 5881.63 so a drop from 5882 to 5778 is a 104-point loss thus far this year, or -1.8%. The S&P 500 peaked on 2/19/25 at an all-time record high of 6147.43 and all-time record closing high at 6144.15. The drop from the peak, the Trump Chump Dump, is a 369-point drop, or -6%, so far.

Donnie uses the stock market as his key barometer of success. What do you think, King Donnie? How's it going? King Donnie holds court this evening in Washington, DC, with a windbag speech. Raise your hand if you are an idiot that spends your valuable time in life watching that dribble. Go do something useful instead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Rampant Complacency Continues Despite Stock Market Pullback Thus Far

Wheeee! Whoopie!  The stock market is down for a couple weeks but the bulls do not care. The party continues uninterrupted. That piddly selloff did not even take out the January lows. Everyone remains in the fearless mode with rampant complacency the rule for 2025 thus far. No one is worried that stocks will go down. They go up forever, right? Traders are standing around with fistfuls of cash waiting to buy even the slightest dip. The put/call ratio charts have not changed much since posted a couple weeks ago. There should be lots more selling ahead in the stock market since there is no panic and fear on display yet.

Market participants are a lot smarter nowadays with the internet and are on to the game to buy on the bad news. When King Donnie, the man-child, melted down in the Oval Office on Friday, stocks dropped like rocks. Equities fell as the orange head turned into a red-faced head embarrassing himself in front of the world. Little Donnie was hiding yesterday licking his wounds, and today, but he will put his big boy pants on and be ready to bloviate again on Monday.

How do you like a host that invites you over to their new white house at the end of the cul-de-sac and when you get there, he berates and hassles you? That shameful Oval Office debacle news likely has more legs into the new week ahead and it will drown out some of the major speech by Donnie on Tuesday night. The orange head wanted the Ukraine agreement to wave that in the air on Tuesday but now he has buptkis. Who plans on wasting a couple hours of their time to watch that dribble on Tuesday evening? Raise your hand so we can see who the idiots are. That is 2 hours of your life you will never get back.

Anyhoo, stocks drop on the Donnie made-for-television Whitehouse drama but then explode to the upside with a huge rally so obscene it would make Caligula blush. People know to buy bad news events nowadays. A key example is wars. When the bombs start dropping and the tracers are lighting the sky, and stocks collapse, buy that horrible news because in a few months you will be happy. Humorously, if the war does not go right, it will not matter, right?

The prior put/call ratio charts helped call the top in the stock market especially since that complacency jived with the negative divergences on the charts. The funny thing is how no one is fearful. The selling over the last two weeks is met with a yawn and a scratch of the buttocks. No one believes that stocks can ever go down again. These folks need a comeuppance.

Well, now stocks are really going to have to be taught a lesson. The stock market is a prize fighter that just got punched in the head a few times. He is a bit dizzy and the one eye is bleeding so his vision is a touch fuzzy, and he feels his legs and knees wobbly, and he is out of breath, but he wants to stay in the fight, let me at 'em, let me at 'em. The other fighter, the put/call champion, knows he already won, and as the stock market gets up again, and refuses to stay down, well, you asked for it, there is no choice but to smack it hard and send it way down so it can finally be taught a lesson.

Some sentiment indicators show people professing bullishness but never believe a human's lying pie-hole, believe what they do, and the put/calls show you that. People may say they are worried and bearish but 10 minutes later they are buying stocks. That is bullish not bearish.

Shorting the rallies is prudent. You should not nibble on any longs or consider jumping into a long position until the put/calls print inside the green circles. That is when everyone's hair is on fire and you can get shares on the cheap. You want to run towards the burning building not away from it like all the people losing their shirts. Good luck. The last of the New York Dolls died; that's a shame. They are one of the early punk rock bands that used to play at CBGB's. Babylon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:28 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/6/25, at 4:25 AM EST: Oh my. That is hilarious. The CPC and CPCE put/calls move lower again. Pause for laughter. The level of bullishness is off the charts. The only thing traders are focused on is when to buy the dip. Do not be an idiot, folks. The US stock market has a long way down to go from here. Watch UTIL 983 because if that fails, the stock market will go into a crash profile where a significant crash would be a substantive possibility.

SOX Semiconductors Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Tight Bands

At the end of last year, Keystone posted the SOX chart with the sideways symmetrical triangle. The breakout direction was not known but it appears price is dying. Here is the prior chart if you want to read that first then continue with the saga below.

The purple arrows show tight bands. No, not a tight band, say, like the Allman Brothers with Dickey playing and singing Ramblin' Man. Everyone had a Fu Manchu mustache back then. Pass the bowl, grab your guitar, and play all day, 'cause Dickey holds court, and shows the way. No, not that kind of tight band. Tight standard deviation bands. They are not as sexy and do no make the girls get up and shake their money-makers, but they do tell you that a big move in price is at hand. Tight bands, however, do not predict direction. 'Them Delta women think the world of me'.

SOX appears committed to the downside but let the week ahead play out because if she reverses and wants to rocket launch higher, a la the tight bands, it would have to begin in the days ahead. Otherwise, the downside collapse continues with a long ways down still to come.

The other wild card is if Emperor Jensen or some other AI carnie barker proclaims a breakthrough with chip technology. Or perhaps positive news with the tariff drama. The knife cuts both ways. Negative news in the chip sector will crush SOX to fulfill the sideways symmetrical triangle pattern to the downside.

If you reviewed the prior post for the socks, the same triangle is placed above and you can see that price fails out the bottom. Note the fake-out move higher as the year started but that was a sucka's rally and those poor saps are still clutching their semiconductor shares, along with their pearls, hoping that price will come up again. That is funny.

Using the vertical side of the triangle that is one touch in, is about 1400 points. Let's say the breakdown starts at 5200 so taking 1400 away targets 3800. Well, isn't that special, as the Church Lady would say. Because the 3800 level was talked about in the prior post and that is where the gap fill is needed (orange circle). The 4350-ish level is strong price support. Price violated the lower band so the middle band at 5084 is on the table; it should curl over and begin tracking lower.

The bulls do not want to give up the chip ship. They want to keep sailing the turbulent stock market waters and cannot believe that chips will falter. Semi's are the future. People cannot get enough semiconductors. They believe in the big bull story going forward. All that is fine and cool. But that does not mean the stocks are grossly overpriced, right? In other words, all that fun stuff for a few years ahead with chips is already in the price of the chip stocks. Is it? Keystone is not in the chip space long or short currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 8:41 AM EST: SOX collapses to 4575 yesterday. Ouch. That will leave a mark. The chips are down, in more ways than one.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts

The stock market top occurs a couple weeks ago and the neggie d spankdown is in progress on the weekly basis that Keystone called as usual. What else is new? There remains a lot of chop suey in markets and the baby Trump theatrics are always front and center. It is a historic day in politics with US President Donnie Trump flipping his orange wig in public arguing with Ukraine President Zelenskyy.

King Donnie, King Crybaby, and Jester Vance, two chest-thumping loud-mouthed bullies, sucker-punched Zelenskyy in the Oval Office today causing turmoil in the markets. Zelenskyy was ambushed by the orange-head that turned into a red-faced dude that lost his temper bigtime. That is the true Trump on full display today, folks; an angry old orange-headed, er, red-faced, man. You can tell the loser by the one who is red-faced; it exposes the fact that he is not used to being in a face to face confrontation and instead a paper tiger.

Zelenskyy remained calm as a cucumber; of course he did. He has been at war for 3 years while Trump and Vance are choosing their cologne and cufflinks each morning. Trump holds a grudge against Zelenskyy for not wanting to get involved in digging-up dirt on Biden a few years ago. Trump expects you to lick his shoes and if you do not he will try to destroy you, your family, and career; retribution is his fave word. Donnie proclaimed that the hallowed, solemn, sacred Oval Office was disrespected by Zelenskyy. That makes you laugh out loud.

Slick Willie Clinton was having sex right there where Trump and Zelenskyy were sitting. Worse, Trump watched television in the Oval Office, cheering for Americans to hurt and maim one another during the Capitol Hill Riot on 1/6/21, and refusing to stop the violence when all he had to do was click his fingers. That is a sick head, and a tarnished disgraced room.

Rise Against the Violence (you know you have a hit song when you play it for the fans for the first time, and halfway through, the audience is screaming the chorus, you cannot buy that, it is magic).

That was sick behavior by Donnie on 1/6/21 but American voters did not care; in truth, they did not want to vote for a cackling communist and felt they had no choice but to hold their nose and vote for the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown.

This dude had the hutzpah to tell Zelenskyy he is the one disrespecting the Oval Office for calling Donnie out for his half-truths and misguided trust in dirtbag Dictator Putin. It is laughable. The Oval Office is just a room in a building, folks. 

Such is America in the final throes of its corrupt and failing crony capitalism system. It is fascinating to watch. Donnie runs home to Mommy at Mar-a-Lago just like Biden would run home to Delaware each weekend. The republicans and democrats are simply two sides of the same corrupt Washington, DC, coin. Get with the program.

Anyhoo, stocks recover into the closing bell but the week remains down. On the daily chart, the standard deviation lines got tight so a big move was on the come and it was down. The tight bands predict a big move but not direction. Price falls through the lower band so a rebound up to the middle band at 6039 is on the table. The SPX comes down to fill that huge gap from January.

Note that price makes the matching low on the daily chart and the indicators are positively diverged (green lines) calling for a bounce, sans the MACD line that remains weak and bleak and would like to see one more price low before there is a relief rally on the daily basis. It depends on Monday. If traders are bullish going into next week the daily chart may continue higher and not look back MACD be damned, or, Monday may be a soggy day for stocks, perhaps Tuesday, where price leaks back down for another look at the lows, and at that time, say mid-week, all indicators are possie d, so the rally on the daily basis will begin again and continue for a few days or week or so. The daily chart is set-up positive.

On the SPX weekly chart, the top call was easy like back in early December. Divergences are the most important metric in technical or fundamental trading; it is all you need to know to make a lot of money. The red lines show the top in the stock market with price making a matching or higher high, and all the chart indicators sloping down, negatively diverged, neggie d, so you knew a smack down was on the come, and voila, it begins and is now 2 weeks along.

Typically, an indicator or two on the weekly chart will chime with the daily chart to help create oomph in the relief rally but there is nothing to pin your hat on with that sick chart so the pending rally in the daily fame may not have much legs. The MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting to see more price lows occur on the weekly basis. Thus, the expected multi-week pullback remains in progress. Price has not even fallen to the prior low in January at that 5773-ish level.

The SPX violated the upper band so it came down to the middle band at 5966 but not to the lower band as yet at 5765 and rising. The LOD today is 5838 before the huge intraday relief rally.

As always, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time frames are the dimensions not space. The SPX should rally for the days ahead as described above; the bottom is either today or early next week. The rally will be short-lived, however, and shorting the rally is likely the prudent path forward. The SPX should roll back over to the downside to continue the multi-week slide.

The stock market will not bounce with a tradeable bottom until positive divergence forms on the weekly chart and that is likely another 2 to 4 weeks away, simply watch the chart, you do not have to guess. It can bounce before then with happy Donnie, Fed or AI talk, but Donnie is in a nasty mood tonight, the Fed is quiet, and people are tiring of the AI hype without any solid examples of efficiency ever discussed in measurable detail.

She will probably continue trailing lower with fits and starts on the weekly basis down to the 5600-5750 area. That 5700 is awesome price support. If 5773 fails, the 5700 support is next.

The 150-day MA continues sloping higher telling you that the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern, based on this metric. Watch over the coming days and couple weeks to see if the 150-day MA flattens and rolls over to signal the start of a cyclical bear. By definition, this cannot occur until prices start printing sub 5817 so that would be when real market trouble begins.

The weekly chart is an interesting picture. Just think, a couple years from now, if you bring up that SPX weekly chart, it will not be applicable, since price will not be on that chart, it will be below it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:40 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Teasing Critical 50-Wk MA Trap-Door at 980 that Would Bring on Serious Stock Market Pain

The stock market takes the pipe today continuing its streak of weakness for the last week. The new moon peaks today so it is not surprising to see the bearishness. Stocks are falling and some of that dough flows into notes and bonds seeking perceived safety so Treasury prices rise and yields fall. This is what you see in recessions.

The Fed was worried about inflation the last few months, as they should, but no one was looking at growth that looks like a 98-pound weakling. High inflation and a slow economy is stagflation like the 1970's. Humorously, King Trump is the new Jimmy Carter.

Anyhoo, utilities have not been able to regain the 1030+ level that continues signaling that utes are in a weekly downtrend which means the stock market should be or will be in a downtrend anytime, and it is. Check.

The second key metric for the utilities is the 50-wk MA now at 980.63. Keystone has talked about this key level many times; it is the trap-door. Since UTIL collapses down to 990.42, the bulls have a black hood on and a noose around their neck standing on the trap-door at the gallows. Time to sing, "O Death." The bulls wonder what happened to the days of wine and roses when it seemed like good times would never end?

Well, they did and a major test is about to occur for utes and the US stock market. If UTIL loses the 980 level and the trap-door opens, it is lights-out for the US stock market. The trap-door will tell you if the pull back in stocks is the run of the mill -3% to -5% drop or if it has potential to be a -10% correction, -20% bear market, or far worse. It will be the latter if the trap-door flies open.

If UTIL loses 980 and it remains below, the SPX will drop 20 to 40 points within an hour, and then everything will get far uglier going forward into the Ides of March. "Et tu, Brute?" They all stabbed Julius Caesar, even his friend, Brutus. With friends like that, who needs enemies? Far Behind.

Watch UTIL 980 like a hawk because the fate of the US stock market going forward depends on that number. If the pullback is run of the mill, stocks can recover and possibly still pull-out a half decent year. If UTIL 980 gives way, there is a high chance that the stock market will crash so it will be a lot of fun. If the -10%, -20% and worse drop occurs and we are going into summer, the stock market will probably be sick all year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/28/25: UTIL ends the week at 1005 keeping the trap-door shut, for now. Keep watching it. The 50-wk MA is moving higher so the line of death is at the 980-985 area for next week.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A HOUSING RECESSION FOR 26 MONTHS AND COUNTING

The US is in a housing recession for 26 months over 2 years along. The homebuilder stocks are in shambles. The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet. Some homeowners turn into home moaners.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart that provides more color on the sordid path over the last few years. Here is a chart of the XHB ETF.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession, labor recession and manufacturing recession? In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big house party, a la Stevie Ray, come on in, no need to be knockin' when the house is rockin', there's some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down, come on baby, get out on that dance floor and shake something loose.  Wheee!  Whooopie!

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. All that is left are used red Solo cups on the floor, a thick cloud of smoke that will not dissipate, a few roaches in the ashtray, empty beer cans in the kitchen sink, and two days of clean-up ahead. It was fun while it lasted but all that is left is a crumbling foundation.

Time will tell if an overall recession hits and if Godot finally arrives. King Donnie is doing his best to bring on that US recession. The destruction to jobs has a psychological impact for every worker and employee in America. None of your jobs are safe. You may be sh*t-canned tomorrow. Guess what? That causes people to not spend as much money anymore. If consumer spending continues slipping away, you will say hello to Godot that arrives with the overall recession and a couple years of pain. At that time you may as well put on some SRV. Pride and Joy.

AMZN Amazon Daily Chart; Scamazon in a Correction

Scamazon is taking the pipe as expected and explained by Keystone when he called the top for AMZN on the daily and weekly basis. Amazon receives the neggie d spankdown that is in progress.

The chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see more lows in price on the daily basis. The stochastics are oversold agreeable to a relief rally and the money flow is flat call it positively diverged. The bottom on the daily time frame is a few days away; the chart will tell you when all the indicators go possie d.

Price came down to fill that gap (orange circle) from early December and there are lots more gaps to fill down below. Remember, the weekly chart also topped-out with neggie d so a down move has started that will be multi-week. In charting, you are playing multi-dimensional chess with time the dimensions so marry the daily and weekly charts together and surmise that price should chop and remain sticky at the lows for a few days but then recover on the daily basis. After a few days or week or so, however, AMZN will roll over to the downside again to continue the negativity on the weekly basis.

A substantive bottom will not occur until the weekly chart goes possie d. Nothing to it. Simply watch the charts. Keystone is not in AMZN long or short currently.

Note that price is trying to find support at the 100-day MA at 212.83 so this is a logical place for a bounce, then slump over again, until all the indicators can go possie d (unless some happy talk from Donnie or the Fed or Emperor Jensen occurs).

The Amazon vans are all over the place these days when 5 years ago you were lucky to see one per month. Scamazon is eating UPS and FDX lunches. The UPS drivers have brown shorts because they are so worried about their future that they sh*t themselves. Both UPS and FDX have fallen into and are hanging around bear market territory down about -20% off the top.

For UPS, the -20% drop off the top from 141.23, on the infamous 11/25/24, is 112.98 and price is at 116. For FDX, the -20% drop off the top from 307.01 on the infamous 11/25/24, is 245.61 and price is at 253.54. FDX peaked on 7/15/24 at 310.77. Wowza, that was many moons ago.

How far down is Scamazon? Is it comparable to UPS and FDX to show that all three are in the same boat and people are simply not buying as much junk, or, is AMZN not down as much showing that they may be taking share, or, is Amazon down more showing a collapse in the consumer?

AMZN tops-out at 242.52 on 2/4/25. A -10% correction is 218.27 and a -20% bear market is 194.02. AMZN is in a correction now at 212.71 and not down as much as FDX and UPS so the consumer is hanging in there still trying to spend money on crap they do not need and Amazon continues taking share away from UPS and FDX.

Ask yourselves, folks, do you really need all that crap from Scamazon? The sweatshirts, leggings, travel mugs, shoes, whey protein powders, baby wipes, cat litter, wireless microphones, countertop ice machines, and surge protectors? When you are out of work in the weeks and months ahead, you will have time to drive down to local shops to purchase the things you need. The only thing that ever stops the great American consumer is a recession. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: AMZN 208.74. There was a LOD two days ago at 204.16 an important number.

Note Added 3/4/25: AMZN 197.

XHB Homebuilders ETF Daily Chart; Homebuilders Crumble into Bear Market

Homebuilders crumble into the dust, now in a bear market collapsing more than -20% off the top in late November.

Wall Street labels a -10% drop from record highs as a 'correction' and a -20% off the top is called a 'bear market'. These are bonehead metrics but everyone watches them so they are important. They are bonehead because an index or stock may quickly recover after falling below one of these metrics.

Nonetheless, the top in the XHB, the homebuilders ETF, was at 125.88 on 11/25/24, the same day as when the S&P 600 and Russell 2000 small cap indexes peaked. 11/25/24, around Thanksgiving, is a day of infamy.

XHB falls through correction territory and now dabs its big toe into the ice cold bear market waters. Will XHB completely collapse into those cold waters and drown? It is almost March so the spring home construction season will pick-up so perhaps stocks will stabilize. Keystone has been highlighting that the US has been in a housing recession for over 2 years.

The bell tolls for Toll Brothers with TOL taking the pipe. DHI, LEN, KBH, NVR and FERG are all sinking in the same house boat. If you want to look at horrible charts, take a look at that crap. We don't need no steenkin' McMansions. Keystone is not holding XHB or any of the homebuilder tickers long or short currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: XHB 100.72.

Russell 2000 and S&P 600 Small Cap Indexes Daily Charts in -10% Corrections

Small cap stocks bite the dust and are now in a correction. Wall Street labels a -10% drop from record highs as a 'correction' and a -20% off the top is called a 'bear market'. These are bonehead metrics but everyone watches them so they are important. They are bonehead because, as the chart above shows, an index or stock may fall into correction but if you blink it comes out quickly.

At the start of the year, the small caps gave up the ghost and fell into a correction. But by the time Keystone got up to get a cup of coffee, feed the animals, and return, the correction was over. So take the metrics with a grain of salt. There are other gauges that dictate bull and bear markets, in all time frames, far better.

The Russell 2000 tops out at Thanksgiving, 11/25/24, at 2466 so anything below 2219 is a -10% correction. The RUT gave it up to start the year but then gapped up on the happy Donnie talk, Fed escapades, and AI hype. Alas, the little ones could not bear the weight of the market, so their knees buckled and the Russell 2000 is now firmly in correction.

The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is the same dealio. SML topped-out on 11/25/24, the same day as the RUT, at 1560. A -10% correction is 1404 and below. The S&P small caps followed the same path as the Russell 2000 small caps.

What happened to all the jackasses on television that kept telling everyone to buy small caps with both fists? Well, they are laughing since they cashed-out, pumping and dumping their stock to Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder and Melissa Sucka, that always show up to hold the bag. It's fun. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: SML falls to 1351 and RUT collapses to 2140.