SOX Semiconductors Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; AI Chips Are the New Tulip Bulbs

The chip stocks are the favorite flavor for the last few years especially as the artificial intelligence hype continues. Tech workers want to keep their jobs so of course they pump the AI narrative promoting the new technology as the greatest thing since sliced bread. It is so great that it has limited to no impact on business over the last 3 years. Huh? The AI chips are the new tulip bulbs. Instead of new vibrant tulip colors to feed the frenzy, it is fancy names such as H200, and Blackwell and Rubin that feed the AI frenzy.

The semiconductors on the main AI stage currently are NVDA, AMD, AVGO and MRVL. NVIDIA is the king of the hill, then AMD, or you can say AMD and AVGO share the second tier. Broadcom is making the Google AI chips so everyone jumped on board as it appears that Google's Gemini platform is edging out the Open AI ChatGPT platform. Marvell trails the other three but it is a notable player in the AI race nonetheless. All four puked their guts out last week with NVDA coughing up -4%, AMD slapped more than -3%, AVGO collapsing -8% and MRVL crashing -15% that is not marvelous.

Everyone is caught up in the AI hype. As they say in the Bronx, "Good luck wit dat." The AI garbage is just an aggregator at its heart. It will allow call centers to can a couple of employees, and businesses to get rid of the part-time workers performing research and other tasks for minimum wage, and to eliminate a few positions in the drug development programs, and render learning a language useless since the smartphones handle all that now, but, what else ya got?

People do not care about fancy computer information and the new AI fantasy when they are trying to support themselves, some working two jobs, and worried about money every day. The have's play with AI while the have-not's struggle to make ends meet. Where will future funding of the AI come from after the initial money is spent and everyone looks around realizing they are standing in a financial circle jerk?

The enterprise software, such as SAP (pronounced S-A-P not as 'sap' that denotes a fool and jackass) has been around over 20 years. This software has streamlined businesses and made work flow through companies efficient. The accounting department now has only 2 employees when it used to have 8 two decades ago. What is AI going to do? You will have to still keep the 2 employees because one may get hit by a bus on the way to work.

It is also funny that AI is promoted as an all-knowing omniscient force. Keystone's library has 8,000 books and about 500 are pre 1910 with the oldest over 250 years old. These books are not on the internet; how can an AI robot know everything when it does not have all the information? How about scientific and mathematical data? Companies are going to want to keep that stuff confidential. What good is a superfast, gifted computer when it will not have important data for solving a problem that people want to solve? It sounds like a bunch of overhyped nonsense that will disappoint. The jury is out on the so-called AI revolution. AI this! (place hand on crotch like Michael Jackson). Michael and the great Orianthi practicing "Beat It."

The chips went to Orgy Town since April but it looks like the party has run its course. Now, like Roy Brown and "Big Town," the semi's are in trouble and must beg for a nickel to call their baby and beg to come back home. The multi-month rally was fun but now it is time to pay the piper. Price bounces off the 20-wk MA, now at 6409 and rising, so keep an eye on this important support going forward. The dirty SOX will stink badly if the 20-wk is lost.

The red lines show the universal neggie d across all indicators as price made the higher high. She's cooked. Stick a fork in it on the weekly basis. Comically, as the SOX takes the first move off the top on what should be the start of a multi-week neggie d spankdown, the Aroon green line is at one hundo so every single chip bull remains a chip bull no matter what happens. Likewise, the red line down at 4% shows that most every chip bear also believes that chips will go up forever. That's funny (and a contrarian indicator).

The ADX shows that the last strong trend for the SOX was higher in early 2024 but that petered out and price stumbled sideways. The dip in April occurs but that was not viewed by the ADX as a strong trend lower. It was about to be, moving above the 25-30 area, but instead it rolled over lower as price recovered from the spring lows. Price makes the higher highs now but the ADX does not confirm the rally as a strong trend higher and further, the ADX is negatively diverging away from price (bearish).

Help! The chip ship is taking on water. Quick, throw those H200 chips overboard to lighten the load. We must stay afloat and keep the AI hype going. Oh no. Watch out for that DeepSeek log in front of us. Bump. Whoaa! This whole AI thing is getting shaky. Are you sticking around?

Keystone is not long or short the chips right now but the chart tells you short is the direction ahead on the weekly basis. Chips are a leader so the broad stock market will likely want to follow. The SOX monthly chart is crappy with indicators mostly neggie d, that will help the weekly chart kick prices lower, but the histogram and MACD squeeze out higher highs so far for the month of December. If this remains through the end of the year, one more jog move would likely be needed on the monthly basis to place the top. Price would drop for a few weeks, as per the chart above, but then come all the way back up for matching highs, when the monthly chart will be completely neggie d and mark a long-term top for chips as the new year begins (months and a year or few of downside ahead for chips).

The MACD on the monthly chart is in nosebleed territory so it has nowhere to go but down so it may not be all that important and the major long-term top would be in, NOW. There is still a lot of December to play out, so the histogram and MACD may turn neggie d over the next 3 weeks. Simply watch the charts. There is no need to guess.

Bring up the daily chart and you can see the neggie d spankdown plain as day. Price made the higher high, the double-top pattern, with all the indicators sloping lower, negative divergence, so she is cooked on the daily basis and this kicked in the negativity last week. SOX will have fits and starts but the weekly and monthly charts point to sad times ahead not the happy AI joy that all the twits, in their fleece sweaters sporting the tech company logo, profess nowadays.

Silicon Valley tech workers scream, "Blasphemy!" They say Keystone does not know what he is talking about and AI is the greatest thing since the invention of the railroad and internet. Are you sure about that? Things always sound good on paper but take far longer to implement in widespread practice and if successful, it does not happen overnight, and it typically does not live up to all the hype. If you are a novice trader and riding the chip hype, get yourself out before you get hurt. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Tempting Failure at 50-Wk MA that Would Have Serious Negative Consequences for the US Stock Market

It is time to be very afraid. Kitty saw the utilities chart and ran away; now hiding under the bed and refusing to come out. Animals must sense danger. Price is tapping on the trap-door. If you are standing at the gallows with a noose around your neck, it is advisable to not tap the trap-door with your foot. Gallows Pole. Hangman! Hangman!

Bad things will happen to the US stock market if price fails at the 50-wk MA at 1057; it is a trap-door for equities. If she fails, expect the SPX to dump a big chunk within a short time after the failure and things will get worse from there. Bulls must keep UTIL, or DJU, above 1057 by all means necessary, otherwise, they will be walking the Green Mile to the Gallows Pole.

You have to squint but you can see the 50-wk MA line at 1057 inside the blue square, and the lower shadow of the candlestick, representing the low price for the week thus far, and today is the first day of the week so that is the same as Monday, is 1059, only a hair from failure that will wreak havoc on the US stock market. It is high drama with the SPX gains for this year on the line.

Everybody and his bro are calling for smooth sailing into the new year with more stock market gains ahead along with rainbows, blue skies, flowers and puppy dogs. There are no bears. It will be quite a site if UTIL, or DJU, 1057 fails.

The US stock market goes into a crash profile if UTIL 1057 is lost. This means that a major crash for US equities is on the table if the failure occurs. Watch the drama closely. If you choose to remain long stocks, and you see UTIL lose 1057, it will be time for you to bend over and assume the position. Kenny and The First Edition Just Stopped In to see what position my condition was in. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; M-Top or Double-Top; Negative Divergence; Fibonacci Retracements

Dead man walking. Stand back everyone. Dead man walking. The SPX is walking the Green Mile, folks. It is time for him to pay for his greedy sins. You can't help him anymore. He's walkin' the Green Mile. Stand back.

Charts are in neggie d wanting a spankdown. Put/calls are screaming rampant complacency and euphoric bullishness. Analysts are already calling for SPX 8K when 7K did not print yet. Investors expect the rate cuts to send stocks to the moon rewarding America's wealthy class once again. The Santa Claus rally is guaranteed by all market participants. Everything is bullish. Even the bears are now bulls. What could possibly go wrong?

Watching this major stock market top play out is getting old. It is a very atypical top for sure. After the top at Halloween, and subsequent neggie d spankdown as forecasted, stocks recover after a couple weeks of downside action due to the happy rate-cut talk, AI hype and King Donnie's optimistic bloviations.

So here we are again around 69 hundo. It is surprising that it made it this far up but it will not be surprising if this behavior was the blow-off top like the dotcom bubble (when everyone, and his brother, currently says the blow-off top is another year or two away). The all-time top is 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high is 6890.89 on 10/28/25. These all-time records occurred over a month ago; it does not seem like it.

The SPX weekly chart remains set up with negative divergence across all indicators. It is time for the long stock holders to take their medicine. Bend over and grab your ankles. A multi-week smackdown will occur as everyone is bullish and celebrating the holidays. If long stocks, your holiday is about to get ruined. Save yourself before it is too late.

The SPX is now in an M-Top formation, or double-top, Mazel Tov in 2026, and the final leg lower is expected going forward for the coming weeks. She bounced off the 20-wk MA a couple weeks ago now at 6605 so watch this level. If it fails, there will be Hell to pay. Utilities are collapsing while no one is looking forecasting big stock market trouble ahead.

The Fibonacci retracements are shown for the multi-month rally from April to now. The first 38% Fib retracement is at 6154-ish right at that strong price support at 6200-ish. The 50-wk MA is there at 6160 moving higher. When she starts falling apart, that should be any time, maybe Black Monday?, the 6605 will likely fail and price will seek the solid support at 6150-6200. That would be a nice drop that would get everyone's attention. Are you ready for this fun ahead or are you stuffing your fat face with holiday treats, cookies and candy no longer paying attention to the stock market? You will have to learn a lesson.

Plan for a large pullback in the stock market that will run for several weeks. Keybot the Quant remains long but remember, the robot travels the smoothest path through the year so it does not catch the exact tops or exact bottoms. It will be telling if/when the quant flips short. Keystone is holding index shorts betting against the US stock market and will likely bring on more shorts going forward. It is time to flush the stock market turd. The bulls yell, "Blasphemy!" The bulls demand that stocks go up forever proclaiming that it is "Never Enough" as Patty sings.

Here is a great poem about the markets, economy, and the season, from Poet Tarzana Joe. It is called "All Indicators Indicate" by Tarzana Joe.

Pay attention folks. If you are holding stocks on the long side, you are about to be taken to the shed out back and whipped. Do you want to be whipped? Are you ready to face your Waterloo? "Waterloo" by Stonewall Jackson. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Gift of the Maji

Merry Christmas to all. Happy Hannukah and Kwanza, too. And Happy Festivus. And Boxing Day. It is a great day to read "The Gift of the Maji" by O. Henry. He was a great writer if you are looking for things to read; his short stories are quick reads that always end in trick, or surprising, endings. Read the story or watch the YouTube film with family and friends, especially with your children.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

Wheee! Whoopie! The bulls are partying like its 1999. Traders and investors have concluded that stocks will go up forever so even the bears are bullish and buying stocks; a primal lust to buy equities. Meanwhile, back at Realville, equities are setting up for a pullback so the bears will have a turn and we shall see what they got. Utilities continue dropping a very ominous sign for the stock market. Kitty is afraid after seeing the ute chart and still will not come out from under the bed.

The SPX 2-hour chart is setting up/set-up with negative divergence so a top is in for the 2-hour time frame. The green lines show stocks dropping into a falling wedge pattern (bullish), with oversold conditions and positive divergence across all indicators (indicators are sloping up as price drops that means she is fueled-up for a rocket launch higher) that sends price to the moon.

Now we have the opposite, the yin and the yang, night and day, cold and hot, that Katy Perry chick sings the Hot n Cold song, with her gyrations it was more hot than cold. Anyhoo, the red lines show stocks rallying higher into a rising wedge pattern (bearish), with overbot conditions and negative divergence across all indicators (indicators are sloping down as price continues higher that means she is out of gas and price should reverse and fall apart) that should create a neggie d spankdown in the hourly timeframe.

The 2-hour candles are printed at 9:30 AM EST, 10 AM, 12 PM (noon) and 2 PM, then repeat the next day. That is the way stockcharts does it. So there will be another candlestick in a half hour at munch time and you can check to make sure the neggie d remains in place and if so, the top is in, and she will be spanked lower. The stock market is being naughty so it needs spanked.

The bulls are trying to keep stocks buoyant all week because equities typically rise 80% of the time the couple days before the Fed rate decision meeting that is on Wednesday next week. Also, a rate cut is expected so that easy money will flow into the stock market to make the rich richer. Three cheers for crony capitalism filth!

Thus, if the bears want to growl and make hay, now is the time to sh*t or get off the pot. Maybe a soggy late-day to end the week? Maybe a Black Monday on tap? Sentiment is off the charts bullish so all of these happy people, most of you reading this, must pay a price. Keybot the Quant remains long so this topside dance for the US stock market continues. I Melt With You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:34 PM EST: The noon candlestick is in play now and a new one will begin at 2 PM. The price highs match and the neggie d remains. What is holding the SPX up? Blow on it and it should fall over. There is happy talk about a healthcare plan being released next week by Congress. Everyone remains bullish, and wants to party bullishly all weekend long, and then show up on Monday to be bullish again. Bears only exist in the museum now, in the extinct display. SPX is up 21 points at 6878.

Note Added 5:35 PM EST: The bulls keep it green into the weekend with the SPX at 6870. Nothing's changed; the drama continues on Monday. The market makers would not let the SPX turn red today that is interesting. There is likely no more bullish time than now for many years. Business program participants, internet panelists, strategists, analysts, the Uber driver, the fry cook, and the doorman, are all long the market. Wall Street analysts are calling out SPX 8K targets for next year and 7K has not occurred yet. Father McClean took the parishes money and went 3x long with ETF's today with everyone praying that the good times continue unabated. Comically, a business panel on television will have all bullish participants but no one comments about the fact that they are all bullish. It is one big party into 2026. Everyone guarantees a Santa Claus rally to end the year. This rally occurs from Christmas Eve through New Years Day for a day or two. For this year, the Santy rally would be from Wednesday, 12/24/25 through Friday, 1/2/26. Stocks are usually higher in this period 90% of the time but sometimes you are only talking marginal gains or a percent or two. Everyone ignores the fact that there are 12 trading days until you get to the Santy rally and even then there is no guarantee. You may receive coal in your Christmas stocking like Keystone. One year he did not receive coal, but it was because the sock had a hole in it. The put/calls are low verifying the rampant complacency and a stock market top at hand. Utilities collapsing is a bad signal for the broad stock market. UTIL is down to 1077 from over 1180 a month ago. Professional traders know that stocks are bullish the couple days (next week) before going into a Fed meeting (next Wednesday) so everyone is front running the move because the bullishness is busting out at the seams. The bulls expect the party to continue into 2026 and they tell everyone to jump on the bull train that is bound for glory. Wheee! Whoopie! This Train Is Bound for Glory. Everyone is bulled-up and all aboard the bull train. Are you caught up in it all? There is no more perfect time for a Black Monday to appear. The greedy pigs are fattened beyond belief so they best be harvested now. Do not be complacent folks. Instead be nimble. Be water my friend.

DVY Dividend ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Dividend Stocks About to Receive a Multi-Week Smackdown

Everybody loves their divvy. Everyone is brainwashed into the divvy compounding cult going forward. Investors puff their chests out as they proclaim, "I only buy dividend-producing stocks." Divvy, divvy, divvy, you get dizzy, I'm so dizzy my head is spinning, I'm so dizzy, I can't see. Tommy Roe.

Like Pavlov's dog, any time someone hears the word dividend they hit the buy, buy, buy button without thinking twice. There are likely lots of young folks in dividend-producing stocks looking forward to gaining wealth and compounding price upside and dividends. So is a lot of other people. In fact the chart above shows everyone and his bro are into dividend stocks with the same idea. All the folks chasing dividend stocks are slapping each other on the back proclaiming how smart they are for owning the big dividend producers (bloated behemoths).

Going forward in America, the coming decades will not be like prior decades. The population was increasing into the new century driving stock markets higher. More people, production and wealth was the steady path ahead, until now, when young folks cannot afford to have families anymore. The US is on the downside of the baby boomer stuff.

Baby boomers that have lots of bucks in stocks will pull that out as they pay for their health problems and continue to help their adult children that cannot support themselves. A young person working as a barista at Starbucks is not going to step in and buy the stock that the older folks are cashing-out. Think about the demographics going forward before listening to the talking heads on television and the internet that have one arm around your shoulder like your best friend, but the other hand is reaching in your back pocket.

Anyhoo, DVY price prints a higher high and another touch of the bearish rising wedge pattern. The chart indicators are all negatively diverged so DVY is cooked. Crispy-fried. Stick a fork in it. The top is in and a multi-week pullback should begin, and this week is the first week of pulling back as the red candlestick shows.

Interestingly, the chart was already neggie d at the start of October, and it received a spankdown, but it recovered. That was due to the Fed rate cut talk and AI hype and other happy talk. It is odd. There was no reason for DVY to come back up for a higher high after the October top, but it did. And look how drastically lower the chart indicators are now; completely out of gas and neggie d.

The bottom rail of the rising red wedge is in play as support; price stopped there today at 142 to sit on the rail and make a bounce or die decision tomorrow. Below is the 20-wk MA at 139 that served as support over the last couple months. If she fails, the rout will be on and all of you divvy chasers will be running for your lives losing your money. That will be fun to watch. The 137-ish is strong price support and another downside target.

The drops from rising wedge patterns can be quite dramatic so if you are long divvy stocks, and start to see price drop, you may want to begin clenching your buttocks.

The move higher in late 2024 was a strong trend higher as the pink box for the ADX shows but despite higher prices over the last year, the move higher is not considered a strong trend higher. The Aroon green line shows that nearly every DVY bull remains bullish expecting the stock to go up forever. Comically, the red line shows that nearly every DVY bear also believes that the stock will go up forever. Everyone is on the DVY bull side of the boat as the craft begins swaying and rocking to and fro.

If you own a lot of dividend-producing stocks such as MO, F, STX, VZ, PFE, EIX, ES, KEY, ADM and D, you are about to have a religious experience to end the year. That is appropriate considering the time of year. Bend over and assume the position. Keystone is not playing DVY long or short right now but the preferred play going forward would be to short DVY.

Hold on, let's check the shorter term charts for clues or to help with the timing if you want to go short. Wow. That is cool. On the DVY daily chart, you can see a megaphone pattern, or expansion pattern, plain as day. She tapped the top rail of the megaphone 5 days ago so the moive down to the bottom of the expansion pattern would be..... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer ..... 137-ish. The DVY started receiving the neggie d spankdown on Monday. DVY should remain soggy and drop lower and lower for a few weeks perhaps through the end of the year. DVY may drop sharply from the rising wedge any day forward.

Do you like divvy stocks? Did you always feel smart because you owned them? Assume the position. The hippest Christmas song. Run Run Rudolph. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Do Not Forget Those in Need During the Holiday Season

It is the holiday season so do not forget those in need. Food banks are getting whacked this year as the need is high and the supplies lower especially as US funding programs dry-up or disappear. Local food banks are always looking for volunteers, as are local thrift stores and other places. Clear out your pantry of canned goods and donate them to the local food bank; you can go buy new stuff.

If you have clothes or wares to donate, and you do, do not give them to the big-box thrift conglomerate that starts with a G. Half that stuff goes into people's pockets. Instead, search out the poor town that is near where you live and you will find that there is a thrift store there, perhaps one block back from the main street. Give your donations to those thrift stores since the blue-haired gals know who is in need in the community including the working poor. They will also typically take canned goods and other food donations.

Wounded Warriors, Tunnel to Towers, the Gary Sinese Foundation, and lots of other charities can always use donations. Humorously, if you need return address labels for the snail mail you send, do not give $15 bucks to Scamazon. Instead, write a check or donate that $15 directly to a charity of your choice and it is guaranteed that you will receive endless address labels for yourself. The charities provide the free address labels hoping that will entice you into donating in the future. Comically, Keystone has 80,000 return address labels that will never be used.

And do not forget building materials and things for the house or garage that were never used. Maybe you have a new window, or door, that was never installed, or kept the old one after it was replaced and it is still in good shape. That stuff can go to Habitat for Humanity that was started by former President Jimmy Carter. They will take any building materials leftover from jobs. There should be a location near you and you can call them if you have any questions. So you no longer have an excuse not to clean the garage. Load up the stuff that is still usable by handymen and drive it down to the Habitat for Humanity location. They will be happy to take it and use some of it on the houses they fix, or build, for the poor.

So there are lots of ways to help those less fortunate. If you go to bed hungry and your stomach is growling as a child, it is something you never forget in life. So donate to your local community to help others and you may find that it actually helps yourself. Merry Christmas to all and Happy Holidays.

It was an annual event for Darlene Love to sing "Christmas" on Letterman each year. What a beautiful lady with a powerful voice. She was born to perform.

DUST 2x Inverse Gold Miner ETF Weekly Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended

DUST is done and dusted, but the 2x inverse gold miners ETF wants to rise like a phoenix from the ashes. The gold miners, GDX, and the juniors, GDXJ, are moon shots along with gold this year. The gold bugs finally have their day in the sunshine receiving big gains for their loyalty to the yellow metal.

DUST moves lower when the gold miners, such as GDX, move higher, and DUST moves higher when GDX moves lower. This explains the severe beating on display above. A couple charts ago, Keystone talked about gold and the miners developing, or at, a neggie d top.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we never sat at the cool kid's table, DUST should be in positive divergence (if gold and GDX are in negative divergence) and the chart clearly shows that to be the case (green lines). Price is fueled-up ready for a trip higher, a rocket launch, on the weekly basis. The green falling wedge and oversold conditions are also bullish set-ups. Ditto price extended below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher.

If you bring up the DUST daily chart, that is also possie d across all chart indicators. If you bring up the DUST 2-hour chart, that is also possie d. Keystone pulled the trigger. Pull it! Pull it! Pull it! Shoot to Thrill. Play to kill. Too many women, too many pills. There's only one Angus. No smartphones in that crowd; life was better.

Anyhoo, many traders have stepped up to the plate to catch the DUST falling knife over the last year and some are only left with bloody stumps. The BPGDM, bullish percent gold miners, hit 100% in August and it is odd that gold miners have not cracked yet. The constant Powell drumbeat of rate cuts maintains a soggy dollar and a weak dollar sends gold, and the folks that mine the gold, to the moon.

One week from now, Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell everyone how to trade the crony capitalism system so those comments and the rate decision will impact, stocks, bonds, dollar, gold, etc..

Keystone bot DUST today once the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts were all set up with possie d. Another potential trade would be shorting GDX and even shorting individual gold miner names. It is usually a fool's errand to jump in front of a fast-moving gold and gold miner train but Keystone wants to find out if that is the gold train or instead the light at the end of the tunnel paving the way to gold miners in retreat. Long DUST is a speculative trade not for the faint of heart. Going against a strong gold and gold miner trade this year is high-risk trading but, no guts, no glory.

DUST violated the lower band so the middle band at 13.73 and falling sharply is on the table. Ditto the upper band at 22.65 and falling sharply. The ADX is off the charts and only has one direction to go in; down. The ADX did not identify the long painful road lower as a strong trend lower until the summertime (ADX over 28-ish). This would be expected to roll over and go sub 30 as time plays out.

Knowing that gold and gold miners are a moon shot, how do you think the Aroon looks? Yes, the red line shows that all the DUST bears remain bearish and expect the chart to continue lower and lower. Humorously, the green line shows that nearly all the DUST bulls expect the chart to go lower and lower. There are no DUST bulls; zilch. Everyone has given up on DUST and expects gold miners to move higher in price forever. Well, there is one DUST bull now; Keystone. Dust bowl; that is funny. It will be fun to watch. Maybe not if DUST continues lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Slipping into Weekly Downtrend Forecasting Big Trouble if it Continues

Kitty is scared after seeing the utility chart and runs away to hide under the bed. Lots of drama is occurring with the utes as the stock market decides if a major top is printing right now. The utilities are playing a role in deciding who wins on the road ahead. That is why the old-timer's watch them.

The 15-week lookback confirms either a weekly uptrend or downtrend and the broad stock market follows. The 50-wk MA, now at 1056, is a line in the sand where very bad things happen to the stock market if it fails.

Thus, for this week, the closing price to compare to 15 weeks ago was 1109.48 (orange circle). Price fell through 1109 today creating some of the day's sogginess with stocks. UTIL continues lower to 1093 an ominous development but few know what to watch especially when they are whistling past the cemetery. Pet Sematary by the great Ramones. Joey's voice will be haunting forever.

Thus, for this week, the bulls need to push UTIL back above 1109 or they will be in trouble. New record highs will not occur unless the bulls push UTIL back above 1109 this week.

For next week, the week of 12/8/25, with the Fed decision on 12/10/25, the 1109.48 becomes meaningless and is replaced with 1088.74 (light blue circle). For the week after that, the week of 12/15/25, the 1088.74 will be meaningless and replaced with 1078.53 (purple circle). Note that after that, the comparison numbers increase (gray line) so it is easier for the bulls to keep their heads above water over the next 2-1/2 weeks, but after that, the bears have an advantage going forward.

Of course, if utes continue lower now, it will be all negativity and doom and gloom ahead. The 50-wk MA at 1056 is a trap-door for the stock market. If it fails, the SPX will dump 30 or 40 points within a few hours and the stock market will be in a crash profile (there is a high liklihood that stocks may crash). At the least, big percentage moves lower would be expected going forward.

So you want to assemble the pieces above into a mosaic that can paint the future. If UTIL recovers above 1109, the bulls will be celebrating bigtime and will carry stocks higher into year end 'singing songs and carryin' on, all night long'. Sounds like a Hank Williams Jr song. Family Tradition.

The stock market is in trouble if UTIL remains below 1109 this week. If 1056 fails, the stock market will be falling in earnest. Since 1089 is the key number for next week, watch the closing price on Friday for this week. If UTIL ends the week below 1089, there will be Hell to pay next week and all eyes will be watching to see if the 1056 fails that will usher-in Hell on Earth. It's fun. Now you know what to watch.

We need some Jose Feliciano to liven up this joint. Feliz Navidad. Come on ladies, get on the dance floor and start shaking your money-maker's. Even white folks can find some rhythm listening to Jose. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 12/3/25: UTIL drops to 1085 and finishes the day at 1089. Kitty is very afraid of the ute chart and refuses to come out from under the bed. The time has come. Beds Are Burning.

Gold Weekly Chart; Setting-Up with Negative Divergence that Will Begin Multi-Week Pullback

All that glitters is not gold. In a couple weeks, or couple days, the fantastic gold orgy will devolve into a pyrite pity party. The gold daily chart continues to show buoyancy higher on the daily basis. The weekly chart above shows the gold orgy in all its glory. Buying 10 grand in gold in 2016 gets you over 40K in gold now. Congratulations to the gold bugs.

All good things must end, but not quite yet. This is a weekly chart so it will have a new candlestick in progress for the new week at 9:30 AM EST tomorrow morning. If you made a boatload of dough on the gold run, consider exiting stage right.

The red lines show all the chart indicators sloping down, negatively, but price is not at a matching or higher high as compared to the prices at the Tweezer Top (blue circle). By definition, negative divergence occurs when price makes the matching or higher high and the chart indicators are all sloping down showing that they are out of gas and do not have any more strength to take price higher. Gold is almost there but not yet. Gold price needs to move higher a bit more before the neggie d would be locked-in on the weekly basis.

Thus, if you want to time the top to go short, or think about how to scale-out over the next couple weeks, simply watch for the price to move a bit higher, to that thin red line, and then check the indicators to see if they all remain neggie d. If so, you can call the top in gold and predict a multi-week pullback ahead.

In the morning, when the new candlestick begins printing, check the MACD line. It is always a sneaky bugger and if the upside is extended a wee bit longer, it will be due to the MACD line making a higher high. Watch it closely this week. If the MACD is long and strong, that likely says a jog move is needed, down for the week ahead, and the price will come right back up the week after and that is when the MACD will go neggie d again, and if the other indicators are neggie d, that will be the top. You get the idea.

Gold is set up on the weekly basis to top out anytime over the next couple weeks. The chart will tell you when, then hone in on the daily and 2-hour charts for more specific timing of the top.

The purple arrows show the tight standard deviation band squeezes. The tight bands, that are different than the tight bands such as the Counting Crows, predict a big move in price to occur but they do not predict direction. All 4 of the gold tight bands over the last couple years resolved to the upside. Gold bears never had a chance.

Of course, gold is going to be impacted, because the dollar and rates will be impacted, on Fed decision day 12/10/25, next Wednesday, so that will need factored into the mix. Market makers may try to keep all markets stable and sideways into the Fed decision in 8 trading days.

Simply watch the price and once it is matching the early October closing highs, and the neggie d on the indicators remains in place, gold is cooked on the weekly basis and will begin a multi-week descent. Keystone is not playing gold now long or short. The GLD ETF chart is the same dealio and you can see that the MACD wants to sneak higher so keep an eye on it. The GLL ETF, that is the inverse gold ETF, that goes up if gold goes down, is down in the cellar, as would be expected with gold at record highs, and it is setting up with positive divergence, as would be expected. So a potential play as soon as the neggie d locks in for the top would be GLL long or shorting GLD. There are other ETF's to play. Do not play that 3x leveraged garbage. The 2x ETF's are leveraged enough if you seek risk.

Whoa. Check that out. The neggie d is in place for GDX, the gold miners. Ditto the juniors; GDXJ. Let the new candlestick start tomorrow morning and check the charts but both of these are likely topped-out and will begin a multi-week move lower. Keystone is not in the gold miners long or short but obviously, the play is short going forward.

NEM price is not at a matching high, yet, but it is almost neggie d. DUST (inverse gold miners) has finally been punished enough and its weekly chart is set up with possie d and ready to recover so check on this one and its new candlestick after the opening bell. The Solid Gold Dancers had legs that went on forever. Add in a top-shelf performer at the top of her game the perfect Irene Cara. You are born with that. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Multi-Month Lows Verify Rampant Complacency and Euphoric Bullishness and Forecast Large Drop in Stocks Ahead

Get out of the stock market while you can. Huge shake-out coming due to the rampant complacency, and now out of control euphoric bullishness. Both the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios are at multi-month lows. Go short. All the bulls, and all the bears, expect stocks to go up forever; but they don't. In fact, when everyone is at the bull party on one side of the boat it capsizes. The bull party kicks into high gear with everyone dancing and singing Una Paloma Blanca.

The US stock market, the S&P 500, the SPX, will top-out within days, and then drop from 400 to 1,000 points in a quick few weeks. Thus, in January, the SPX may be sporting a 5 handle. Current price to start off the new trading month of December, and last month of the year, is 6850-ish. Taking away the 400 to 1,000 points places the index down at 5850-6450 in a few weeks. That will get everyone's attention.

The television and internet talking heads are universally bullish channeling Irving Fisher in 1929 that said the stock market is at a permanently high plateau. How did that work out? It is funny. Bears are as rare as hen's teeth. The recent SPX orgies occur on rate cut promises, AI hype, and holiday cheer, while ignoring and downplaying all bad news.

Further, the recent selloff is declared the shakeout everyone was waiting for so now the coast is clear. There are jackasses now calling for SPX 8K next year. What are they smoking? That must be some good ganja that makes you see things. Pass it around to everyone. Oh, you already did.

The pundits, analysts and strategist, bulls all, proclaim that at this point, the dotcom bubble top did not occur for 2 more years so there is nothing to worry about. Don't you idiots understand that the talking heads are pumping and dumping? They tell you, Joe Retail, to be the bagholding sucka while they sneak out the back door like all thieves. Are you willing to be the sucka and lose your money? All the stock market hijinks and malarky is a recipe for disaster and the short-sellers are sitting at the table ready to dine.

The major topping behavior at 6500-6900 continues for 3 months. The major topping behavior at 6200-6900 continues for 5 months. The SPX all-time high is 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high is 6890.89 on 10/28/25. The SPX only needs 50 points to be at record highs so do not rule out a pop of a hundo or so points before the exact top in the days ahead. The SPX 2-hour chart will help with the timing.

The Fed rate cut is next Wednesday, 8 trading days away, so bulls are going to try and keep equities elevated in the week ahead, since that will carry them into the Fed decision day (stocks are higher 80% of the time the couple days leading into a Fed meeting). It will be interesting to see if the selloff begins before the Fed meeting on 12/9/25 and 12/10/25, or, if the Fed decision may cause the stock market to print the top and then nosedive off the cliff.

The Keybot the Quant trading robot is long right now so it will be very telling when the quant flips short.

She is going to be a doozy. Plan accordingly. Ditch the longs or at least take on a lot of protection via puts or inverse ETF's. You can scale-in to the inverse ETF's over the coming days and want to be loaded up short within, say, the next couple weeks. If you hold on to all your longs in your stock portfolio, you are going to get hosed bigtime. Cue Barry. Eve of Destruction. Human respect is disintegrating. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Complacency, Fearlessness, and Euphoric Bullishness Continues; Stay Guarded for a Significant Top in Progress

Happy Thanksgiving. The turkeys are running for their lives. Everybody and his bro now proclaims that the bottom is in for stocks and that healthy little pullback sets up the end of year bigtime rally. The sky is blue with rainbows. A unicorn walks by. What a Wonderful World as Satchmo sings. The color of the rainbows.....

Traders are tripping over each other to buy stocks worried that they will miss out on the bigtime end of year rally that they perceive. The rampant complacency and euphoric bullishness is historic, and enduring, so far. Stocks rally this week to the moon pumped by retail stocks, utilities, chips, banks, commodities, it is one big party, and yesterday volatility collapses creating another spurt higher.

The rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market has gone nowhere. It remains in place. The little November selloff is small potatoes. You ain't seen nuttin' yet. Everyone must pay for their misplaced optimism and euphoric bullishness and this is the path ahead.

The last three red circles on the right hand side of the charts verify the rampant complacency. No one is buying put protection, instead it is calls all the way. No one needs downside protection because they say the stock market is going up non-stop and the pullback is great because you can buy more stocks cheaper. These folks are going to get bludgeoned by the real pullback that is coming.

Generally for the CPC, you want to go short when the numbers are down at 0.75-ish. The CPC and CPCE remain good tools but like everything else these days, the numbers are dealing with a lot of counterforces and conflicting signals. A good time to go long is to nibble on positions you want to open when the CPC moves above 1.05-1.10. The 1.20 is a solid buy, buy, buy signal. That is when the panic and fear is so rampant that stocks have nowhere to go but back up. Timmy Trader was so panicked during the April selloff, he ran over to the window and jumped out. Coworkers were mortified but then realized the trading floor is on the ground level.

Note that all the bottoms since the big April bottom come with lower CPC numbers below the 1.20. It tells you that the stock market has not seen the panic and fear yet. Keystone loves panic and fear because people run out of the burning building, with their hair on fire, swearing that they never want to own stocks ever again, and he will gladly take those shares off their hands.

But the recent crazy price action is not inspiring to go long. The Keybot the Quant algorithm flipped back to the long side this week as more AI hype, other happy talk, and the Hassett orgy kicked into high gear. Hassett has orange on the tip of his nose. He is not a brown-noser, he is an orange-noser. News hit that Hassett has the inside track for the Federal Reserve chairman job after Powell is finished in May and, since he is King Donnie's lackey, will lower rates (Trump is a real estate guy so he loves debt) so traders immediately hit the buy, buy, buy buttons. The easy money of lower rates will flow into the stock market making the rich, that own the stock market, richer. It is crony capitalism filth on full display daily. There are actually stupid people that think capitalism exists. That's funny.

Do not take a lackadaisical approach to stocks. Consider the big rally this week to be another opportunity to exit the stock market.  You will know a tradeable bottom is in and it is worthy to buy stocks on the long side when the CPC tags 1.20. Until then, be super cautious and if you are holding a lot of longs, you are likely going to lose a lot of money. Keybot the Quant turned uber bullish so it will be interesting to see when that joy reverses since the robot only sees 1's and 0's. Sing us a song, Piano Man. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips long this morning at SPX 6672. The bulls pump chips, commodities and utilities creating the upside joy. The stock market choppy slop continues. Chop suey is served cold to both bulls and bears.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; H&S; November Rain Falls On Stocks

The neggie d spankdowns continue in the daily and weekly time frames. On the daily chart, price tagged the upper standard deviation band so a trip back to the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 6763, was on the table, and the lower band at 6559, and both occur. A trip back up to the 20 is on the table for a relief rally.

Price makes the lower low on the daily chart and the RSI, histogram, and stochastics are positively diverged wanting to see a bounce and start of a relief rally. Ditto the oversold stochastics. However, the MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting a jog move to occur (down-up or up-down-up) to create possie d and the bottom. Positive news may occur that will also begin a relief rally.

Price typically rallies from the 100-day MA at 6548 and that is why price is sitting there over the weekend. It is making a bounce or die decision and dip-buyers anxiously bot stocks seeing that the SPX has dropped to the 100.

The SPX weekly chart remains nasty with indicators weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows and lower highs on a weekly basis ahead. The multi-week pullback should continue into December. That makes sense since the first couple weeks of December is a lot of tax-loss selling that may create a crescendo down below. Price bounced off the 20-wk MA at 6548 (same as the 100-day MA) so that moving average carries clout going forward.

This week markets are closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and Friday is a half-day closing at 1 PM EST. Traders may be in a good mood for the holiday and with the daily chart trying to establish a bottom, perhaps some recovery in stocks may occur into the holiday weekend. When a month is down, like now, the last few days are usually a recovery rally. However, as mentioned, the weekly chart is bad so the lower prices would then expect to re-exert themselves.

The other outcome is going down the tubes right now, this week, holiday be damned. That would manifest by a failure of the blue H&S pattern on the daily chart. With a head at 69 hundo and necklines at 6600 and 6550, the downside target, if the necklines fail is 6200-6300. Note that the 6600 neckline failed, and then price came up for the back kiss Friday and sits there for the bounce or die decision tomorrow. If price begins falling through 6500 and lower the 6200-6300 is likely on tap.

The orange circles show lots of gaps to fill and price came down last week to fill the gap from early September. That gap from late June at 6050 is big enough to drive the proverbial truck through. The bulls and bears battle wondering if the November Rain will continue through the end of the month. If so, the bulls will be crying, like Slash's guitar. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Books Nearing Publication

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology is nearing publication, now a group of books, after over one year in editing and proofing.  Keystone is a one man band and does not have a dozen staff so reviewing over 1.2 million words (the size of two "War and Peace" novels) and 1,000 COVID-19 charts takes a while. The Coronavirus Chronology chronicled each day of the COVID-19 pandemic; it is the China Virus Bible.

Keystone is currently reviewing wave 8 so the finish line is in sight. The Coronavirus Chronology will be published as an ebook on Amazon with hardcopy manuals likely in the future. The Coronavirus Chronology is split into three volumes. Volume 1 is the first four infection waves. Volume 2 is waves 5 and 6. Volume 3 is waves 7a, 7b and 8. Each volume has over 300 covid charts of countries worldwide and individual US states including daily new cases, active cases, deaths and other metrics.

The chart above gives you the view of the pandemic from 40,000 feet (12,000 m). It was one Hell of a ride. Keystone wrote from 2 to 8 hours per day for 3 years to record the pandemic. Keystone did not plan to take time out of life to pursue such a monumental task but the pandemic picked him. Sometimes an invisible force taps you on the shoulder. It was obvious that a detailed historic account would be needed chronicling the pandemic once the virus appeared serious in early 2020.

Keystone took on the task to properly record the pandemic for historical sake. Keystone did it for the United States of America so there would be an accurate record of the terrible event for many decades forward.

Keystone dislikes both corrupt political parties so he was the ideal writer to provide an unbiased view of the daily covid events and news from 2020 into early 2023 when the endemic phase took control. President Trump is bashed for his mishandling of the pandemic in 2020 and President Biden is ridiculed for his mishandling of the pandemic from 2021 forward.

The Coronavirus Chronology is the authority on the pandemic and prevents any revisionist story-telling. 

The following books are on the docket;

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Volume 1 Infection Waves 1 through 4 with Charts; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published within a couple months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Volume 2 Infection Waves 5 and 6 with Charts; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published within a couple months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Volume 3 Infection Waves 7a, 7b and 8 with Charts; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published within a couple months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Abridged Text; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published in 2026 (this book pulls the most important news and events from the Coronavirus Chronology main volumes providing an abridged and shorter reading experience; the volumes can then be used for deeper dives)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Aftermath; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Endemic Phase to be published in 2026 (this book is the daily chronology of the covid endemic phase from February 2023 to early 2025)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Conclusions to be published in 2026 (this book will highlight the major mistakes and problems during the pandemic and suggest many useful conclusions and suggestions to follow in the future including technical analysis for infection waves and using the CDC County map as a valuable tool for future pandemics)

So hold on to your hats. The books that tell you the truth about the COVID-19 pandemic are on their way. Of course, Keystone is never winning any popularity contests with his cynical and satirical writing. Keystone does not carry any water for either corrupt political party.

The Coronavirus Chronology was hassled and censored during the covid pandemic and to this day the articles are banned and buried in the Big Tech search engines (under the Biden administration's strong arm). Soon, it all will be out in the bright light so anyone can re-experience each day of the pandemic, if you dare. Readers will discover that they forgot 90% of what happened during the pandemic.

All the Coronavirus Chronology articles remain in the archives on the web site here so if you need specific pandemic information and you have a target date in the past, simply look it up in the archives until the books are published.

After this message announcing that the Coronavirus COVID-19 Chronology books are coming close to publication, Keystone will surely be further shunned, removed from the Whitehouse Christmas card list, and not invited to any of the Wall Street holiday parties. Writing is a lonely endeavor but someone has to do it.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Neggie D Spankdown in Progress

The NVDA and bitcoin charts are similar so it leads you to believe that young traders that are pro-bitcoin, have been increasing their leverage on NVDA, and visa versa, as the price of bitcoin, and NVIDIA, move higher. That bubble popped.

Humorously, idiot America is spending money hand over fist for AI chips that run hot, and expansive data centers, that do not even yet have the power available to operate, while the lifespan of the chip decreases. By the time the data centers come on line, the chips may be obsolete. All this so the stupid chatbot garbage can tell you what to buy faster. Pause for laughter.

Even funnier, one of the godfathers of AI was asked what advice he would give to a young person starting their career. He paused, and then definitively said, "Be a plumber." There are high hopes for Big Tech that is caught up in the AI circle-jerk where Peter lends money to Paul that gives the money back to Peter because he is buying a new Rubin chip to heat-up his Reuben sandwich at lunchtime. And the banksters and lawyers standing in the shadows, so you can't see their faces, say they got it covered. Yes, this is all going to end well. Pause for laughter again.

There is always some AI hype news that will bounce price for a while but then it slumps back over again. The latest is selling the H200 chips to commie China so the fans went wild on Friday, a little bit, then they lost their gumption, and fell on their swords. NVDA falls -6% last week. Two years ago, you could have bot it at 40 or 50 bucks and lots of traders with big profits are patient and holding on to their shares.

The red rising wedge is ominous; a bearish pattern. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators as price moved higher locking in the top and neggie d spankdown, which occurs and is in progress. It is a multi-week top so there is lots more downside ahead. It is comical to see people step up to the plate to save the day making big block purchases of stock proclaiming the bottom is in, only to have their head handed to them on a platter. It's fun observing human nature. Each investor thinks they are Jesse Livermore; they are, but for different reasons like when he lost his shirt.

The indicators remain weak and bleak so even if a short-term relief rally appears, especially with everyone more focused on eating turkey on Thursday, NVDA will roll over and die again on the weekly basis. You have to wait for the indicators to set up with positive divergence to call the bottom but that is likely several weeks away.

Price is 179 sitting on the 20-wk MA support at 180 so it must make a bounce or die decision out of the gate Monday morning. The 165-ish is price support from August. Price violated the upper band so the middle band, that is the 20 MA at 180, was targeted, and achieved, and the lower band at 163 is also on the table going forward. This price action forms a confluence with the price support so 163-165 may act as a magnet for price. The 50-wk MA at 149 may also serve as price support as the multi-week pullback continues.

The purple arrows show a tight band squeeze so the move for NVDA right now will be a biggie. Tight bands only tell you that the magnitude of the coming price move will be large but it does not predict direction. The squeeze back in late 2023 resulted in the upside AI orgy. The squeeze early this year resulted in a downside collapse. What will this squeeze reveal? It is already moving down so the bulls must turn it around within a couple weeks, otherwise, the beatings will continue until moral improves, and price will drop a lot more.

The ADX shows that the upward rally in NVIDIA was a strong trend higher (pink box) but that ended a year ago. Since then, price stumbles sideways like a drunk in Times Square, and the recent upside is not identified as a strong trend higher (needs to move above ADX 30). It likely will not going forward either due to the pullback that has started.

The Aroon verifies the ridiculous sentiment in the stock market currently. The green line shows that nearly all the bulls remain bullish on NVDA expecting higher prices forever on the weekly basis going forward. Comically, all the bears (red line) believe NVDA will go up forever, too. Despite the pullback so far, this type of misplaced sentiment hints that there is lots more downside ahead.

This euphoric human joy must be crushed by the falling stock price on a weekly basis before a bottom can be found. Jade Bird sings, "I Get No Joy." Such a powerful voice out of that pretty petite little girl. Keystone is not long or short NVDA and has no plans to play it; maybe on the long side when the weekly chart sets up with possie d. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Weekly Chart; Trump's Media Company Crashes -94% in 4 Years; Crashes -70% This Year; Crashes -33% in the Last 3 Weeks; That is a Lot of Crashing

King Donnie's media company, that owns a lot of bitcoin, DJT, crashes into oblivion. No wonder the orange head is in a bad mood in recent days with a gravelly voice, disheveled hair and bags under his eyes that look like coin slots. Donnie must be up all night losing sleep over losing money.

DJT stock is a complete disaster; humorously, it is a low IQ stock. What happened to all the winning? That chart is losing and crashing and burning. DJT came to market in late 2021 and shot up to 175 on its debut. Four years later, it is at 10 bucks a huge -94% crash. But let us be more lenient because that 175 buy was likely an investor that wanted to kiss Donnie's butt to receive a future favor; a quid pro quo. Such is America's crony capitalism system.

DJT stock started this year at 35.62 a respectable value and an equity that is holding its own despite a big drop in 2024. But it is lower lows and lower highs since then. The rats are leaving the sinking DJT ship. DJT drops from 35 to 10 this year a -70% crash. That beating is going to leave a mark. If Mommy or Daddy bought you DJT stock for a Christmas or Hannukah gift after Donnie won reelection last year, you are now complaining to them that they should have given you the Mercedes convertible instead; at least it would be worth something now.

The coup de grace, the final blow, is the last 3 weeks. DJT stock is taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten mercilessly from 15 to 10 a -33% crash. DJT stock is collapsing -11% per week for the last 3 weeks. Donnie is losing his silk shirt, and gold cufflinks.

The downward-sloping channel is respected by price with many touches of the top and bottom rails. DJT has suffered serious technical damage. As bitcoin goes, so goes DJT stock. Bitcoin loses -30% over the last 3 weeks on par and in sync with the DJT loss. Donnie put all his eggs in the bitcoin basket but he did not realize it had a hole in the bottom.

Raise your hand if you are buying DJT stock for your children as a holiday gift this year. No one? Any one? Bueller? If you got involved with the orange one, you got fleeced. He is a business idiot. If your dad gave you a half billion dollars, and opened all the doors to Manhattan real estate for you, and all you have is $1 to $3 billion 40 years later, that continued to dwindle away before political office boosted your coffers again, you are a business fool. You should have $50 billion after that rich kid head start. He is lucky he did not lose it all. Remember when he would brag that he was worth over $10 billion during his first term in office because he wanted the double-digit number? That was always a lie.

The DJT stock is a turd now. Keystone is not long or short DJT and not interested in playing it.  It will be interesting to see how much it recovers as bitcoin recovers. They went down in sync. Will they go up in sync? If DJT lags bitcoin on the way back up, that tells you that traders and investors jumped ship and they are not coming back. In trading, Another One Bites the Dust. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart

While everyone is focused on the AI hype and NVDA earnings, utilities decide to sneak over to the bear camp and create stock market negativity. You will have to watch this closely since it will tell you if the stock market will crash going forward.

It is the same ole drill for the utes. The two important metrics are the closing price from 15 weeks ago, that dictates a weekly uptrend or downtrend, and the 50-wk MA now at 1051. Utilities have been a rocket shot over the last few months due to the AI hype and buildout. Massive amounts of energy are needed to cool the AI chips and cool the buildings housing the chips. You can heat a Reuben sandwich on top of those new Rubin chips.

So utes go to the moon on the AI fuel. Utilities are important because when they lead the broad stock market lower, there is bigtime Hell to pay in equities and the pullback will not be a minor event. Utes have been heading lower for over 5 weeks and started the ball rolling downhill for the broad stock market; a bad omen.

Today, some bad stuff happened. The clock just fell off the wall in Chairman Powell's office and a cheap gold-plated gawdy ornamental decoration just fell off the fireplace in the Oval Office. King Donnie will have to stick it back in place with some stronger glue. Utilities failed into a weekly downtrend.

The blue circle is the closing price 15 weeks ago at 1113.47. Price is now at 1107. That is bad news, Buckwheat. For next week, the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, the 1113.47 is meaningless and replaced with 1103.18. For the week of 12/1/25, the 1103.18 becomes meaningless and is replaced with 1109.48. After that, the ute closing price from 15 weeks ago drops so the comparisons become a lot easier for the bulls. If the bears are going to flex their muscles and create carnage in the US stock market, they need to do it over the next 2-4 weeks. For bears, it is the proverbial time to sh*t or get off the pot.

Note that price dropped to 1104 today already teasing the 1103 line in the sand coming fast for next week. Watch UTIL price at the end of the Friday session since that will tell you the story for next week ahead of time.

If UTIL pops back above 1113.47 Thursday or Friday, the stock market will recover with a relief rally.

If UTIL remains below 1113.47 Thursday and Friday, the stock market will remain sick with a downward bias.

If UTIL remains below 1103.18 for next week, the stock market selling will worsen and the downside will become more extensive.

If UTIL remains below 1109.48 for the week of 12/1/25, the stock market will be in bad shape.

If UTIL, at anytime over the next 3 weeks, falls below 1051, a trap-door will open for the US stock market. The SPX can be expected to quickly drop 30 or 40 handles in quick order and then the stock market will worsen as time moves forward. If the 50-wk MA at 1051 fails, consider the stock market to be in a crash profile with historic downside on tap. It's fun. 

Be very afraid going forward. Utilities leading lower is strike one. Utilities falling into a weekly downtrend is strike two. Utes falling through the trap-door at 1051 is strike three and yer out. Meanwhile, it is time to relax and play Greensleeves on the lute, while watching the utes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: UTIL drops to 1104 ready to test the key 1103 level in play for all of next week. If the week ends with UTIL above 1103, the bulls will try to stage a comeback next week. If UTIL finishes the week below 1103, there will be Hell to pay next week. Now it is time to listen to Ian's flute, while watching the utes. Locomotive Breath. Over the top performance.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: UTIL ends the week at 1107 after getting spanked down from 1113 between noon time and 2 PM EST. Utes then rolled over to die. However, the bulls want to stay in the game for next week so they finish the day above the critical 1103.18 in play for all of next week. Price fell below 1103 on Friday but recovered to 1107 at the close. The bears needed UTIL to remain below 1103 to start the new week off on a down beat, but instead, the bulls will offer an upbeat up-tempo start if UTIL remains above 1103. Watch the utes closely over the next couple weeks. They will tell you a lot. Up-tempo and the upbeat wins but the downbeat is only 4 points away. More Than a Feeling.

BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Bitcoin Bit the Dust Crashing -29% in 6 Weeks

Bitcoin bit the dust. Kansas coughs from the Dust in the Wind. From 126K+, the record high in early October, to sub 90K, in only 6 weeks. That is a -29% crash; a bed-sh*tting. King Donnie must be clenching his buttocks since the family is grifting off bitcoin and other cybercurrency derivatives these days. The dude is not a good businessman. The tight bands (that tell you a big move is coming but do not predict direction) squeeze price lower and bitcoin is beaten below its lower standard deviation line. Poor bitcoin is lying on the shed floor out back behind the garage, beaten to a pulp; a mouse scurries over its leg as bitcoin yells to try and get help from the neighbor.

Bitcoin enthusiasts are tripping over each other each wanting to be the wise one that calls the bottom in their idol bitcoin. Investors step up announcing large block purchases, and 10 minutes later they are crying in their beer at the money they lost real fast. Catching a falling knife is tricky usually resulting in bloody hands. It is a mystery why people make asses out of themselves when all they have to do is wait for possie d on the charts so they can call the bottom and buy bitcoin with less risk.

The bitcoin daily chart (not shown) is setting up with positive divergence. It may chop for a day or few but should stage a relief rally on the daily basis. Bitcoin bulls will no doubt proclaim that the bottom is in so many will buy some bitcoin, only to get their head handed to them again since price wants to see lower lows, on the weekly basis, due to the weak and bleak chart indicators.

The top was textbook with the red rising wedge, a bearish pattern, overbot conditions during the summer, upper band violation, and price extension above the moving averages, and most importantly, neggie d. The negative divergence spankdown begins the same week the historic bitcoin all-time record top is printed at 126K+ in early October. Alas, 6 weeks later and it dropped to sub 90K for a heartbeat. If you are holding a lot of bitcoin, you have to check your shorts, because you just sh*t yourself. Business media says everyone that bot into the bitcoin and cybercurrency ETF's are now underwater. 

Bitcoin receives the neggie d smackdown on the weekly basis, now 6 weeks along, and you can see why price stops here for a look-see (strong price support over the last year). A doji candlestick is in play for this week that means bulls and bears are battling and it is equal so far. Bitcoin stops on the key price support over the last year (blue line). Bitcoin must decide to bounce or die from this level.

The chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower prices for bitcoin on the weekly basis going forward sans the RSI and oversold stochastics. Thus, the daily time frame wants to set up for a relief rally and that jives with the RSI and stoch's on the weekly chart above as well as the price that has fallen through the lower deviation band. 

Thus, with an index finger pointed in the air, marrying the daily and weekly time frames, bitcoin will likely bottom on the daily basis this week and rally for a few days. But the weakness on the weekly chart will reexert itself and bitcoin will roll back over to the downside to satisfy the weekly basis and print new lower lows. Remember, trading is like playing 3D chess, only it is 5D and time is the variable not space (minutes, hours, days, weeks, months).

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, it is the exciting life we live, if a nimble trader, you can give the rally on the daily basis a try for some quick money, and then ditch that long in a few days and go short again; very tricky trading with a volatile asset like bitcoin. Let's check the 2-hour. The bitcoin 2-hour chart created the bounce off the bottom; it is in universal possie d.

Keystone was shorting bitcoin over the last few months a pain in the butt due to the choppy sideways slop, but it worked out in the end and the trades are covered with nice profits. Keystone is not long or short bitcoin right now and does not plan on playing it in the very short-term (VST). King Donnie will likely see the money he lost and will make some kind of positive bitcoin announcement (that perpetuates the crony capitalism system) that will create a bottom in bitcoin, but it makes it difficult to trade since Donnie can save the day at any time.

Keystone will wait for the weekly chart above to set up with positive divergence and consider getting back in on the long side then. There is no point to trying to be a hero now. Wait for possie d so you know price is fueled-up and ready to run higher. Bitcoin likely needs another couple-three weeks to set up long on the weekly basis. Simply wait for the positive divergence to set up.

Bitcoin may recover for a week or two, then roll over again, but the indicators above may be possie d at that point, perhaps except for the MACD line, so call it 2 to 4 weeks. Again, no need for guessing. Simply watch the chart above and wait for it to set up with positive divergence to go long; conversely, just like going short due to the negative divergence shown above in red that was a winner.

Sure, bitcoin may take off like a rocket higher when King Donnie decrees that the regulators will lay out a red carpet for all bitcoin derivatives going forward or some other ridiculously happy news for cybercurrencies, but the weekly chart above does not make you want to be long. Give it a couple weeks and the landing zone in the 77K-85K may be the place to go long (if all indicators are set up with possie d on the weekly chart above).

Gold and bitcoin were the two darlings considered to be a store of wealth. Investors abandoned bitcoin since it exists somewhere in the ether on the smartphone, and prefer gold that you can hold in your hands. Gold remains elevated, but bitcoin took the pipe, but when stocks begin falling in earnest, gold will be sold off, too. Gold On the Ceiling. Hurry up! Time to get to the Bowery for the concert. It's gonna be a good one. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: Bitcoin drops to 86.5K. The broad stock market takes the pipe today.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: Bitcoin drops to 83.8K and teased the 80K level yesterday. King Donnie's DJT stock has lost -33% over the last 3 weeks due to the bitcoin collapse and DJT is down -70% this year. Oh my, lots of folks got fleeced in that stock. Let's take a look at the charts to see what is going on. If you bring up the bitcoin daily chart, you see price making the lower low and so is the RSI, MACD and money flow; they are weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows on the daily basis. The overbot RSI, stochastics, and money flow are agreeable to a bullish bounce. Ditto positive divergence for the stochastics and histogram. It is a mixed bag and likely needs 1 to 3 days to set up with possie d to place the bottom and begin a relief rally on the daily basis. The bottom can happen immediately if King Donnie proclaims something great about bitcoin and cybercurrency. The weak and bleak RSI, MACD and money flow values are way down in the cellar so they have nowhere to go but up. A jog move may be all it needs up on Sunday or Monday then down again on Sunday or Monday to place the bottom on the daily basis. You do not have to guess; simply call the bottom when all the indicators are possie d. It will likely be this week but it is tricky since it is the Thanksgiving holiday week. The weekly chart is a waterfall. If you bot at 120K +, perhaps at the 126K top, you are soiling yourself looking at that chart. Price makes a new low on the weekly basis and the RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow are all weak and bleak. Bitcoin will set up and bounce on the daily basis but then in a week or so will roll back over to the downside since the weekly chart still wants to go down substantively. It may simply keep biting the dust until the weekly chart goes possie d. It is likely smart to wait for the possie d to form for all the indicators on the weekly chart before buying bitcoin long again and that is likely 2 to 4 weeks away. Do not guess, simply watch the chart.