The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A HOUSING RECESSION FOR 26 MONTHS AND COUNTING

The US is in a housing recession for 26 months over 2 years along. The homebuilder stocks are in shambles. The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet. Some homeowners turn into home moaners.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart that provides more color on the sordid path over the last few years. Here is a chart of the XHB ETF.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession, labor recession and manufacturing recession? In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big house party, a la Stevie Ray, come on in, no need to be knockin' when the house is rockin', there's some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down, come on baby, get out on that dance floor and shake something loose.  Wheee!  Whooopie!

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. All that is left are used red Solo cups on the floor, a thick cloud of smoke that will not dissipate, a few roaches in the ashtray, empty beer cans in the kitchen sink, and two days of clean-up ahead. It was fun while it lasted but all that is left is a crumbling foundation.

Time will tell if an overall recession hits and if Godot finally arrives. King Donnie is doing his best to bring on that US recession. The destruction to jobs has a psychological impact for every worker and employee in America. None of your jobs are safe. You may be sh*t-canned tomorrow. Guess what? That causes people to not spend as much money anymore. If consumer spending continues slipping away, you will say hello to Godot that arrives with the overall recession and a couple years of pain. At that time you may as well put on some SRV. Pride and Joy.