King Donnie, King Crybaby, and Jester Vance, two chest-thumping loud-mouthed bullies, sucker-punched Zelenskyy in the Oval Office today causing turmoil in the markets. Zelenskyy was ambushed by the orange-head that turned into a red-faced dude that lost his temper bigtime. That is the true Trump on full display today, folks; an angry old orange-headed, er, red-faced, man. You can tell the loser by the one who is red-faced; it exposes the fact that he is not used to being in a face to face confrontation and instead a paper tiger.
Zelenskyy remained calm as a cucumber; of course he did. He has been at war for 3 years while Trump and Vance are choosing their cologne and cufflinks each morning. Trump holds a grudge against Zelenskyy for not wanting to get involved in digging-up dirt on Biden a few years ago. Trump expects you to lick his shoes and if you do not he will try to destroy you, your family, and career; retribution is his fave word. Donnie proclaimed that the hallowed, solemn, sacred Oval Office was disrespected by Zelenskyy. That makes you laugh out loud.
Slick Willie Clinton was having sex right there where Trump and Zelenskyy were sitting. Worse, Trump himself watched television in the Oval Office cheering for Americans to hurt and maim one another during the Capitol Hill Riot on 1/6/21 while he refused to stop the violence. Rise Against the Violence (you know you have a hit song when you play it for the fans for the first time, and halfway through, the audience is screaming the chorus, you cannot buy that, it is magic).
That was sick behavior by Donnie on 1/6/21 but American voters did not care; in truth, they did not want to vote for a cackling communist and felt they had no choice but to hold their nose and vote for the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown.
This dude had the hutzpah to tell Zelenskyy he is the one disrespecting the Oval Office for calling Donnie out for his half-truths and misguided trust in dirtbag Dictator Putin. It is laughable. The Oval Office is just a room in a building, folks.
Such is America in the final throes of its corrupt and failing crony capitalism system. It is fascinating to watch. Donnie runs home to Mommy at Mar-a-Lago just like Biden would run home to Delaware each weekend. The republicans and democrats are simply two sides of the same corrupt Washington, DC, coin. Get with the program.
Anyhoo, stocks recover into the closing bell but the week remains down. On the daily chart, the standard deviation lines got tight so a big move was on the come and it was down. The tight bands predict a big move but not direction. Price falls through the lower band so a rebound up to the middle band at 6039 is on the table. The SPX comes down to fill that huge gap from January.
Note that price makes the matching low on the daily chart and the indicators are positively diverged (green lines) calling for a bounce, sans the MACD line that remains weak and bleak and would like to see one more price low before there is a relief rally on the daily basis. It depends on Monday. If traders are bullish going into next week the daily chart may continue higher and not look back MACD be damned, or, Monday may be a soggy day for stocks, perhaps Tuesday, where price leaks back down for another look at the lows, and at that time, say mid-week, all indicators are possie d, so the rally on the daily basis will begin again and continue for a few days or week or so. The daily chart is set-up positive.
On the SPX weekly chart, the top call was easy like back in early December. Divergences are the most important metric in technical or fundamental trading; it is all you need to know to make a lot of money. The red lines show the top in the stock market with price making a matching or higher high, and all the chart indicators sloping down, negatively diverged, neggie d, so you knew a smack down was on the come, and voila, it begins and is now 2 weeks along.
Typically, an indicator or two on the weekly chart will chime with the daily chart to help create oomph in the relief rally but there is nothing to pin your hat on with that sick chart so the pending rally in the daily fame may not have much legs. The MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting to see more price lows occur on the weekly basis. Thus, the expected multi-week pullback remains in progress. Price has not even fallen to the prior low in January at that 5773-ish level.
The SPX violated the upper band so it came down to the middle band at 5966 but not to the lower band as yet at 5765 and rising. The LOD today is 5838 before the huge intraday relief rally.
As always, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time frames are the dimensions not space. The SPX should rally for the days ahead as described above; the bottom is either today or early next week. The rally will be short-lived, however, and shorting the rally is likely the prudent path forward. The SPX should roll back over to the downside to continue the multi-week slide.
The stock market will not bounce with a tradeable bottom until positive divergence forms on the weekly chart and that is likely another 2 to 4 weeks away, simply watch the chart, you do not have to guess. It can bounce before then with happy Donnie, Fed or AI talk, but Donnie is in a nasty mood tonight, the Fed is quiet, and people are tiring of the AI hype without any solid examples of efficiency ever discussed in measurable detail.
She will probably continue trailing lower with fits and starts on the weekly basis down to the 5600-5750 area. That 5700 is awesome price support. If 5773 fails, the 5700 support is next.
The 150-day MA continues sloping higher telling you that the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern, based on this metric. Watch over the coming days and couple weeks to see if the 150-day MA flattens and rolls over to signal the start of a cyclical bear. By definition, this cannot occur until prices start printing sub 5817 so that would be when real market trouble begins.
The weekly chart is an interesting picture. Just think, a couple years from now, if you bring up that SPX weekly chart, it will not be applicable, since price will not be on that chart, it will be below it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:40 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.
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