SOX Semiconductors Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Tight Bands

At the end of last year, Keystone posted the SOX chart with the sideways symmetrical triangle. The breakout direction was not known but it appears price is dying. Here is the prior chart if you want to read that first then continue with the saga below.

The purple arrows show tight bands. No, not a tight band, say, like the Allman Brothers with Dickey playing and singing Ramblin' Man. Everyone had a Fu Manchu mustache back then. Pass the bowl, grab your guitar, and play all day, 'cause Dickey holds court, and shows the way. No, not that kind of tight band. Tight standard deviation bands. They are not as sexy and do no make the girls get up and shake their money-makers, but they do tell you that a big move in price is at hand. Tight bands, however, do not predict direction. 'Them Delta women think the world of me'.

SOX appears committed to the downside but let the week ahead play out because if she reverses and wants to rocket launch higher, a la the tight bands, it would have to begin in the days ahead. Otherwise, the downside collapse continues with a long ways down still to come.

The other wild card is if Emperor Jensen or some other AI carnie barker proclaims a breakthrough with chip technology. Or perhaps positive news with the tariff drama. The knife cuts both ways. Negative news in the chip sector will crush SOX to fulfill the sideways symmetrical triangle pattern to the downside.

If you reviewed the prior post for the socks, the same triangle is placed above and you can see that price fails out the bottom. Note the fake-out move higher as the year started but that was a sucka's rally and those poor saps are still clutching their semiconductor shares, along with their pearls, hoping that price will come up again. That is funny.

Using the vertical side of the triangle that is one touch in, is about 1400 points. Let's say the breakdown starts at 5200 so taking 1400 away targets 3800. Well, isn't that special, as the Church Lady would say. Because the 3800 level was talked about in the prior post and that is where the gap fill is needed (orange circle). The 4350-ish level is strong price support. Price violated the lower band so the middle band at 5084 is on the table; it should curl over and begin tracking lower.

The bulls do not want to give up the chip ship. They want to keep sailing the turbulent stock market waters and cannot believe that chips will falter. Semi's are the future. People cannot get enough semiconductors. They believe in the big bull story going forward. All that is fine and cool. But that does not mean the stocks are grossly overpriced, right? In other words, all that fun stuff for a few years ahead with chips is already in the price of the chip stocks. Is it? Keystone is not in the chip space long or short currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 8:41 AM EST: SOX collapses to 4575 yesterday. Ouch. That will leave a mark. The chips are down, in more ways than one.