SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation

As previously explained, the SPX is in a multi-week down move. Trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not space. The weakness should continue in the weekly time frame until positive divergence forms in that time frame. In the shorter term time frame, the daily chart, you can see she has been trying to set-up with possie d.

A few days ago, all the chart indicators were positively diverged sans the MACD line but as always happens when trying to herd kittens, as you try to wrangle the last one, another one gets away. The money flow has now turned weak and bleak again. The RSI is possie d but never reached oversold territory. The histogram is bottomed and wants to see a relief rally. Ditto the stochastics that are also oversold agreeable to a bounce.

Thus, a jog move of one or two more bottoms are needed to place THE bottom in the daily time frame when the MACD and money flow turn possie d. That means either up-down-up and away, or up-down-up-down-up and away. That lines up the week ahead as the bottom take your pick of the day. You have to wait for the possie d to form for all indicators before you can call the bottom. If stocks bounce on Monday, then slump on Tuesday and you see the MACD and money flow go possie d, you will know the bottom is in on the daily basis.

These markets are erratic and unstable so sometimes what may happen, especially with King Donnie now siding with Putin in the Ukraine War helping Vlad kill Ukrainians, is that price may collapse to begin the week. Maybe a Black Monday or Black Tuesday? If the mood turns sufficiently sour, now that Donnie has tied Zelensky to the mast and is allowing Putin to take target practice, stocks may collapse next week. If this happens, keep looking for possie d to form, but with a big down draft, the daily chart may resign itself to then not bottom until the weekly chart bottoms so keep an eye on the weekly chart to see when possie d forms.

The brown arrows show the tight standard deviation bands that squeeze out humongous moves but they do not predict direction. Down was the obvious direction this time. Price has violated the lower band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 5977, and dropping, is on the table for the relief rally (it will drop a lot more as price moves higher to potentially meet it). 

The 200-day MA at 5733 was all the rage last week especially for chart novices. Everyone becomes a chart expert when stocks tank even those that diss technical analysis. Sure, the 200 is key but the 50-wk MA at 5648 and 12-mth MA at 5674 (cyclical market indicator) are far more important. That is why price came down to the Satanic 5666 for a look-see at this critical 5648-5674 support area that is also a juicy gap from September.

Watch the MACD and money flow to call the bottom on the daily basis. The Fed meeting is next Wednesday, 3/19/25, so if there is more selling it would probably occur in the week ahead and then stocks will likely want to be buoyant next week into the Fed expecting Santa Powell to deliver candy for the wealthy. St Patty's Day is Monday, 3/14/25, so maybe people will be drunk then and buying stocks in a stupor. The full moon peaks for the month this Friday, 3/14/25, so stocks may feel a lift from Thursday into the Fed meeting on hump day.

Trump is causing lots of chaos and turmoil in the stock market so his mouth on Sunday (tomorrow) likely determines what the stock market does on Monday. Isn't that ridiculous? And sickening? What is all that chatter about people not clapping for the boy with cancer? Anyone with a heart should have at least clapped for the young man especially if you have helped someone with a cancer illness, and watched them die.

Keystone did not waste his life watching the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown address Congress in that windbag speech of almost 2 hours. That is hilarious that anyone would sit through that; if so, you need to get a life. Only 1 in 10 Americans watched the Trump speech and most of them likely flipped the channel at some point. Wasn't it all the same Donnie dribble? Why don't you do something productive with your life instead of listening to that verbal diarrhea from the demopublicans and republocrats. One political party is as corrupt as the other.

Keystone was asked an opinion about the boy with cancer at the speech. Keystone ponders the question, using his wisdom gained from the Shaolin masters, to posit one question to all of you corrupt people. Is the worst person the one who did not clap to encourage the sick child, or is the worst person the one who used the child as a prop?

Billy was in Milan, Italy, and hanging out with a street musician, playing an AC/DC tune. The guy asked Billy for a tip (about the music business). Billy told him, "Buy a new guitar." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.