SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cyclical Stock Market Indicators

Two of Keystone's key cyclical stock market indicators are the SPX monthly chart with 12-mth MA cross and the NYA weekly chart with 40-wk MA cross. Huh? What is he talking about? What language is that? The charts show how the current cyclical bull market started in 2023 and has not looked back.

Both charts, however, are testing their key levels that would usher in an ugly cyclical bear market for US equities. The SPX was flying high but topped-out with negative divergence as explained and forecasted by Keystone before it happened (look back at and study previous charts if you want to learn how to call tops and bottoms).

The SPX 12-month MA is at 5674 and rising. Price makes a low at the ominous and Satanic 5666 but bounces to end the Friday session at 5770. The 12-mth MA ruptures but the bulls recover. If the SPX loses the 5672-5674 level, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market and many weeks and months of sogginess and downside is ahead for stocks.

The NYA is the NYSE Composite a broad measure of US equities. The 40-week MA is 19228 and rising. Price makes a low at 19291 but bounces to end the Friday session at 19573. The 40-wk MA is not yet punctured but price was in the neighborhood. Usually when price is sneaking around the neighborhood looking in windows, it will knock on the 40-wk MA door to test its support strength. If the NYA loses the 19224-19228 level, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market and many weeks and months of sogginess and downside is ahead for stocks.

If both metrics lose their critical moving averages and forecast a cyclical bear market ahead, stocks have a long way to drop.

If utilities drop, a crash may occur. If UTIL loses the 50-wk MA at 983 (see previous chart), and the above two metrics fail, it is highly likely that the US stock market will crash. It's fun.

Watch the SPX and NYA closely and if you see either slip into a cyclical bear market profile, and you remain long the stock market, it is time for you to clench your buttocks, and think of excuses you will tell your wife for losing your children's college fund. Don't Go Back to Rockville. You'll wind up in some factory. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 3/10/25: The SPX collapses 156 points today, -2.7%, to 5615. The SPX loses the 12-mth MA at 5664 and the NYA loses the 40-wk MA at 19260 so stocks fall apart. UTIL, however, did not lose the 986 level. Watch it closely since that would usher in Armageddon.

Note Added Saturday, 3/22/25: The SPX 50-week MA is the 5665 palindrome and the critical SPX 12-month MA, that separates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market, is the ominous 5666. Monday above, Tuesday below, Wednesday above, Thursday below, Thursday above, Thursday below, Friday above. The week ends at SPX 5668.The stock market is spinning round like Natalie singing Hey Jack Kerouac. In the last minute of trading for the week, the market makers push the S&P 500 up over the major 5665-5666 demarcation line parking it there for the weekend. Of course they do. The saga will continue next week. This was the action all week long and yet not one talking head on the internet or television highlighted this drama. They simply do not know what to watch. If you are long the market, and the SPX slips back below 5665 and trends lower, you will lose a lot of money as the cyclical bear growls.