VIX Volatility Daily Chart

Volatility dictated the ebbs and flows in Friday trading. The Keybot the Quant algo is long but champing at the bit to go short and identifies VIX 16.85 as the key metric currently impacting stock market prices.

If VIX pops above 16.85, stocks will sell off. If VIX sustains above 16.85, it will be headed for 20 and higher as stocks collapse.

If VIX remains below 16.85, the stock market party will continue for a day or few. Party Town. On Friday as the VIX popped above 16.85, stocks were dropping like rocks. The bulls fought back and in the final minutes, the Fed's jackboot was held on the neck of Uncle Vix making sure the stock market ended happy before the weekend.

King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will impact stocks on Monday. Canada retaliates but no one is afraid of baby Trudeau, the wannabe tyrant that likes to dress up in blackface on weekends. Mexico is trying to play it cool. The communists are quiet since the Chinese New Year's holiday continues. It is the Year of the Snake for the lying, slithering communists (the 90 million CCP dirtbags; not the 1.4 billion Chinese folks that must live under CCP rule). Prima donna Donnie loves the drama because that gives him an excuse to show his orange head on camera every 10 minutes.

Today is Groundhog Day here in scenic southwestern Pennsylvania; the Laurel Highlands. Punxsutawney Phil, the original and only true animal weather prognosticator, will tell everyone if winter continues for another 6 weeks (he sees his shadow), or, spring is around the corner (he does not see his shadow). There will be plenty of live feeds available on the internet as the time draws near. Phill will come out of his stump home and make his judgement on the weather at about 7 AM EST as the sun rises in these parts. Of course, most people, the non-skiers and non-skaters that sit inside instead of enjoying winter sports, want an early spring and warmer weather, so they are hoping that Punxsy Phil will not see his shadow.

Punxsy Vix will ditch the stock market if he sees 16.85 and higher but the fun times continue in the stock market if he sees 16.85 and lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5:14 PM EST: Punxsutawney Phil disappointed many people today because his shadow he did see, so 6 more weeks of winter it will be! Skiers, skaters, hockey players and snow-tubers rejoice with glee. Next up is Punxsy Vix. What will he see beginning at 3 AM EST?

Note Added 6:04 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:01 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Note Added Thursday, 2/6/25, at 2:59 AM EST: The SPX rallies to 6061 yesterday as the VIX drops to 15.77. The tariffs are more bark than bite. Traders await the US Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow morning.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:30 PM EST: The SPX finishes the week at 6026 down on the week. The neggie d on the weekly chart identified the top 3 weeks ago, on the weekly basis, and price drifts lower to 5924 testing the 20-wk MA support at 5928. Price then recovered one hundo points off the bottom so the support held. Write 5924-5928 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. It will likely be important next week. Markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 2/17/25, and stocks are usually happy the 2 days before a 3-day weekend (Thursday and Friday) so if the bears want to raise a little Hell, like the Ozark boys, they need to be ready to play Monday through hump day. Valentine's Day is Friday so thoughts will turn to love, and the reason for living, on Friday. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 6010 only 16 points below the closing price. The 20-day MA is 6009 and the 50-day MA is 6001. The 6009-6010 is where the wheels begin falling off the stock market, then 6000-6001 will be lost, then 5924-5928 is where blood and carnage begins. The 100-day MA at 5906 and rising would be the last hope for the bulls before they fall into the bottomless pit. VIX is at 16.54 in the bull camp with the line in the sand at 16.87 only 33 cents away. This is fun to watch. Greed always takes its pound of flesh. Plan accordingly so you can take care of your Country Girl. Black Monday?

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: VIX 21.13.