SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

Wheee! Whoopie! The bulls are partying like its 1999. Traders and investors have concluded that stocks will go up forever so even the bears are bullish and buying stocks; a primal lust to buy equities. Meanwhile, back at Realville, equities are setting up for a pullback so the bears will have a turn and we shall see what they got. Utilities continue dropping a very ominous sign for the stock market. Kitty is afraid after seeing the ute chart and still will not come out from under the bed.

The SPX 2-hour chart is setting up/set-up with negative divergence so a top is in for the 2-hour time frame. The green lines show stocks dropping into a falling wedge pattern (bullish), with oversold conditions and positive divergence across all indicators (indicators are sloping up as price drops that means she is fueled-up for a rocket launch higher) that sends price to the moon.

Now we have the opposite, the yin and the yang, night and day, cold and hot, that Katy Perry chick sings the Hot n Cold song, with her gyrations it was more hot than cold. Anyhoo, the red lines show stocks rallying higher into a rising wedge pattern (bearish), with overbot conditions and negative divergence across all indicators (indicators are sloping down as price continues higher that means she is out of gas and price should reverse and fall apart) that should create a neggie d spankdown in the hourly timeframe.

The 2-hour candles are printed at 9:30 AM EST, 10 AM, 12 PM (noon) and 2 PM, then repeat the next day. That is the way stockcharts does it. So there will be another candlestick in a half hour at munch time and you can check to make sure the neggie d remains in place and if so, the top is in, and she will be spanked lower. The stock market is being naughty so it needs spanked.

The bulls are trying to keep stocks buoyant all week because equities typically rise 80% of the time the couple days before the Fed rate decision meeting that is on Wednesday next week. Also, a rate cut is expected so that easy money will flow into the stock market to make the rich richer. Three cheers for crony capitalism filth!

Thus, if the bears want to growl and make hay, now is the time to sh*t or get off the pot. Maybe a soggy late-day to end the week? Maybe a Black Monday on tap? Sentiment is off the charts bullish so all of these happy people, most of you reading this, must pay a price. Keybot the Quant remains long so this topside dance for the US stock market continues. I Melt With You. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:34 PM EST: The noon candlestick is in play now and a new one will begin at 2 PM. The price highs match and the neggie d remains. What is holding the SPX up? Blow on it and it should fall over. There is happy talk about a healthcare plan being released next week by Congress. Everyone remains bullish, and wants to party bullishly all weekend long, and then show up on Monday to be bullish again. Bears only exist in the museum now, in the extinct display. SPX is up 21 points at 6878.

Note Added 5:35 PM EST: The bulls keep it green into the weekend with the SPX at 6870. Nothing's changed; the drama continues on Monday. The market makers would not let the SPX turn red today that is interesting. There is likely no more bullish time than now for many years. Business program participants, internet panelists, strategists, analysts, the Uber driver, the fry cook, and the doorman, are all long the market. Wall Street analysts are calling out SPX 8K targets for next year and 7K has not occurred yet. Father McClean took the parishes money and went 3x long with ETF's today with everyone praying that the good times continue unabated. Comically, a business panel on television will have all bullish participants but no one comments about the fact that they are all bullish. It is one big party into 2026. Everyone guarantees a Santa Claus rally to end the year. This rally occurs from Christmas Eve through New Years Day for a day or two. For this year, the Santy rally would be from Wednesday, 12/24/25 through Friday, 1/2/26. Stocks are usually higher in this period 90% of the time but sometimes you are only talking marginal gains or a percent or two. Everyone ignores the fact that there are 12 trading days until you get to the Santy rally and even then there is no guarantee. You may receive coal in your Christmas stocking like Keystone. One year he did not receive coal, but it was because the sock had a hole in it. The put/calls are low verifying the rampant complacency and a stock market top at hand. Utilities collapsing is a bad signal for the broad stock market. UTIL is down to 1077 from over 1180 a month ago. Professional traders know that stocks are bullish the couple days (next week) before going into a Fed meeting (next Wednesday) so everyone is front running the move because the bullishness is busting out at the seams. The bulls expect the party to continue into 2026 and they tell everyone to jump on the bull train that is bound for glory. Wheee! Whoopie! This Train Is Bound for Glory. Everyone is bulled-up and all aboard the bull train. Are you caught up in it all? There is no more perfect time for a Black Monday to appear. The greedy pigs are fattened beyond belief so they best be harvested now. Do not be complacent folks. Instead be nimble. Be water my friend.