By K E Stone (Keystone)
The United States is defeating coronavirus (COVID-19) with
the combination of vaccines and natural antibodies that creates herd immunity
over time. The US reports 7.7K daily new cases on Sunday and 10.0K cases
yesterday which is great news. The US daily new cases chart, from Worldometer and
annotated by Keystone, is shown above. The chart shows the red channel of
higher highs and higher lows for the 3-day MA trend line verifying wave 4.
A little bit of Chart 101 may help anyone following and
forecasting the pandemic. The 3-day moving average (MA) is the blue squiggly
line in the chart that simply averages the last 3 days of data each day which
is a smoothing mechanism so a trend can be identified. The 7-day MA provides an
even smoother trend line but does not identify the peak and trough turns as
exact.
The US wave 4 outbreak peters out as the 3-day MA rolls over
lower and prints lower highs and lower lows as the chart shows. This activity
places the US in the happy downward-sloping green channel. Maybe we can hope
that someday the daily new cases will be zero. However, over the last couple
weeks a stutter step occurs. The short red line on the chart shows that the
3-day MA came down for another low but prints a higher low (not good). This
hints that a trough may be occurring and a potential trend change higher again
which would be terrible.
The 3-day MA then moves higher again and if a higher high
occurs, that hints that trouble is ahead. Instead, the 3-day MA prints a lower
high again maintaining the downward trend in daily new cases. This is great. So
the 3-day MA rolls over again and comes down and prints a lower low which is
fantastic since it reestablishes the downtrend in daily new cases. The sideways
malaise was likely caused by the CDC relaxing mask guidelines. Americans are
frolicking and comingling with newfound freedom these days so a spurt in cases
was expected and this small of a spurt, and the 3-day MA maintaining a
downtrend, is great news. It could not be better.
The low in the 3-day MA was 11.3K cases on 6/1/21 then the
next low in the 3-day was 13.7K cases on 6/8/21 signaling potential trouble
since it was a higher low. Now, as of 6/14/21, yesterday, the 3-day MA is at
9.6K below both prior lows. Yes, you can throw confetti to celebrate and enjoy
an adult beverage if you choose. The 3-day MA will move higher again so make
sure the next peak is a lower high to maintain the US joy and realization that
the China Flu is being defeated.
The US active cases chart is shown above. The active cases
chart is the bell curve chart that needs to roll over to give the healthcare
workers a break. America’s active cases are forming the bell shape although it
has a dent in the top due to wave 4. The chart should be dropping off more
rapidly but is held back by the elevated California active cases chart. The California
chart and data has a major influence on the US chart due to its huge state
population. There may be a data collection and/or reporting problem in the
Golden State that maintains the active cases at a never-ending elevated level.
The US active cases chart will drop off faster once California’s active cases
chart drops.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above and it is great to
see that the downtrend in the 7-day MA has resumed with a lower low. The 7-day
MA trend line was at 385 deaths at the low on 6/4/21. The 7-day MA comes back
down and prints at 348 deaths yesterday so the downtrend continues. Deaths have
remained stubbornly elevated so it is great to see the downtrend in play again.
Maybe we see coronavirus deaths at zero in future days.
Worldometer is at 615K American deaths from coronavirus with
Johns-Hopkins at 600K and the CDC at 597K. The Institute for Health Metrics anEvaluation (IHME) is projecting 924K American deaths a 1.5 magnitude higher
than the Worldometer, Johns-Hopkin’s and CDC estimates.
The US hospitalizations chart is shown above broken into agegroups. The chart is provided by the CDC and annotated by Keystone. Right away
what do you see? Do you have kids? What immediately jumps out at you from the
chart? The 0 to 17 years old age groups display minuscule hospitalizations as
compared to the overall population. The tiny gold and grey rectangles at the
top of the bars (gold box), that are hard to see without a magnifying glass,
are the young children and teenagers. Not many are in hospital from
coronavirus.
That leaves the orange color, which is the old folks 65
years and up, the dark blue which is the 50 to 64 year old’s, and the light
blue that is the 18 to 49 year old’s. All three colors represent the adult
population of America which is 18 years old and older. The green box shows the
miniscule child and teenage hospitalizations and the light blue, dark blue and
orange rectangles at the smallest height since the start of the pandemic. That
is a beautiful sight almost as pretty as a lover’s eyes glistening in the
moonlight.
The pandemic is being defeated in the United States. Every
age group shows the lowest hospitalizations since China sent the pandemic to
America 16 months ago. The green box also shows that the 18 to 49 year old age
group is in the hospitals at greater numbers than the 50 to 64 year old’s or
the 65+ group although it is not an overwhelming difference. The younger adults
are more active in society especially after the CDC relaxed mask guidelines so
it makes sense a few more would be sick.
The purple boxes show that at the height of the pandemic, in
wave 3, in January of this year, there was an equal number of 18 to 64 year
old’s in the hospital as there were 65+ folks. This was the case for most of
the pandemic into January. The elderly, many with comorbidities such as
diabetes, respiratory, heart and lung issues, and the main killer, obesity,
were cut down during wave 3. The grim reaper shows no mercy and only spreads
misery and despair.
As wave 3 subsided, the three adult age groups equalized
representing the peak in wave 4. This equalization in the age group
hospitalizations likely occurs since the seniors died off during wave 3. It is
a fair assumption that the folks in the 18 to 49 year old age group now hospitalized
are fat. Obese. Some will continue to breathe heavy, and then placed on
ventilators, and die, and they are young. Lose some weight and you will save
your life.
The UK daily new cases chart is shown above. The Chicken
Little’s are running around England telling everyone the sky is falling due the
India B1617 variant (delta). The India variant is dominant in the current UK
testing accounting for about 90% of the positive tests. The fear that a
parabolic spike higher in the charts will occur due to the new wave 4 outbreak
is justified. However, the parabolic move should be occurring now, but it is
not, yet.
The last four days of UK daily new cases are; 8.1K cases,
7.7K, 7.5K and 7.7K cases yesterday. That is not a parabolic spike instead it
is flatlining, or plateauing, as wave 4 decides it wants to spike higher or
roll over and die like the US wave 4 thankfully obliged. Nonetheless, UK Prime
Minister Boris Johnson cannot take any chances and announces a 4-week extension
of coronavirus guidelines that were to expire on 6/21/21 (next Monday). The
economy will have to wait a little while until the UK gets a handle on the
India B1617 variant outbreak.
The steadying of UK daily new cases is encouraging. The
India variant outbreak may be more bark than bite and the non-stop
fear-mongering by the media may be proven unjustified. This week will tell the
story. Johnson may find himself adjusting the time line of reopening the economy
again in a couple weeks but it would be for a good reason and to shorten the
timeline not lengthen it. The UK may be able to hold the B1617 variant at bay.
This week tells the story.
Mexico’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Cases spike
to nearly 7K on 6/2/21 and then develop into an uptrend ushering in wave 3. The
3-day MA is printing higher lows verifying the uptrend. Ditto the 7-day MA is
sloping higher. The killer is Mexico’s
active cases curve, that you can bring up on the Worldometer site, that is
taking out the prior highs from January and February. This is bad. The infections
from Central America migrate north.
The Russia daily new cases chart is shown above. Russia is
in wave 3, which only began a few days ago, and is already going parabolic
(compare this behavior to the UK daily new cases chart). Russia reports 14.7K
daily new cases on Sunday and 13.7K yesterday the highest days of wave 3.
Dirtbag Dictator Putin has a big problem on his hand. The Sputnik V vaccine may
not be effective over time. President Biden and Putin are meeting in Geneva
tomorrow.
President Biden’s goal of vaccinating 70% of the US adult
population by 7/4/21 remains a key focus. A lot of the doom and gloom and
fear-mongering in the United States these days is to scare people into getting
vaccinated. The US is implementing the carrot and stick approach providing
vaccine incentives such as lotteries, cash prizes, scholarships, hamburgers,
doughnuts and joints, first you smoke the joint then you eat the hamburgers and
doughnuts, as carrots and at the same time fear-mongering which serves as the
stick.
The vaccination rate has held steady for the last monthwhich is surprising considering the precipitous fall from the peak at 3.4million doses per day in early April. A couple months later and the US is at980K doses per day a -71% collapse in the rate off the top. The incentives are
saving the vaccination rate and will help Biden achieve his 70% goal but the
path ahead remains sketchy. Just as the initial vaccination enthusiasm waned,
perhaps the incentives enthusiasm will also fade.
The CDC, NIH and others simply have to accept the fact that
millions of people do not plan to and will never be vaccinated. Move on. The
medical authorities will eventually discover that after they stop hitting their
heads against the wall it feels good. The fear-mongering will likely next
proceed to worries about a resurgence of the China Flu in the Fall.
Let’s run through the math for Biden’s 70% vaccination goal
that has been provided in prior articles to note the progress. The CDC COVIDTracker says 64.5% of the adult population is vaccinated with at least one shotwhich is 166.5 million people. This means that 258 million Americans (166.5/0.645)
are 18 years old or older (adults). 70% of 258 million adults is 181 million
adults that need vaccinated to reach Sleepy Joe’s sleepy goal. Biden needs
another 5.5% of adults to be vaccinated to reach his goal or 14.5 million
adults (181.0-166.5).
Over the last 10 days since Article 44, the tally has grown
+1.3%. There are 20 days remaining until Independence Day so doubling that is another
+2.6% to be expected at current vaccination rates which would place the
percentage total at 67.1% short of the 70% goal.
14.5 million more adults need vaccinated with at least one
shot within the next 20 days to reach Biden’s goal. This is a vaccination rate
of 725K doses per day (14.5/20). If the vaccination rate, now at 980 per day,
drops below 700K-800K doses per day, Biden’s goal will not be achieved. If the rate remains above 800K, Sleepy Joe may pull out the victory.
The current rate of 980 doses per day, if it remains steady,
will create 19.6K million shots in arms by Independence Day but some are
children under 18 years old and others are second shots. Taking about 10% away,
say 2 million, would be 17.6 million more adult vaccinations and Biden’s goal
would be achieved with 184.1 million adults vaccinated (166.5+17.6) or 71.3%.
Sleepy Joe would celebrate his goal by downing several shots of Geritol and
black coffee and ordering more fireworks for Independence Day.
Biden’s 70% goal appeared easy when it was announced but
nobody foresaw the drastic cliff-drop in the vaccination rate. Ohio was first
to announce a lottery to incentivize vaccinations and that started this
few-week stabilization in the vaccination rate. Democrat President Biden should
thank republican Congressman Mike DeWine for initiating the vaccine
incentivization party.
One of the vaccines (Pfizer) may receive ‘official approval’
rather than the ‘emergency approval’ since the military brass would then force
all troops to be vaccinated. Only about one-half of the armed services are
vaccinated currently with the other half not wanting to be vaccinated. An
official approval would easily allow Biden to achieve the 70% vaccination goal.
Official approval takes away a leg of support that the unvaccinated folks
reference. People are becoming less concerned about vaccinations as the
coronavirus pandemic subsides.
The WHO’s boneheaded jackass Greek alphabet list for
coronavirus variant names continues to be hyped in the liberal-leaning media.
The WHO says that using the Greek alphabet to name viruses will eliminate
confusion and not stigmatize countries or regions. Who are the idiots that are
stigmatizing and judging people based on a virus name? Do people actually
dislike Spaniards because of the Spanish Flu? Are they racist against Germans
for the German measles? Of course not. It is stupid to think that way. What
kind of sicko does think this way? Obviously, the morons at the WHO think in
this sick twisted manner.
Humorously, the Greek names have created confusion. People
are now starting to say “India variant” or “UK variant” bypassing both the new
Greek name and the simplified scientific names the opposite of the WHO’s intent.
That is funny. The WHO is receiving complaints from companies, that use the
Greek alphabet for their names and logos, not happy they are now associated
with viruses.
What a living, breathing mess. After spending 10 minutes tosearch for a complete list of variant names, the WHO virus name page is finally found and uncovered.
WHO wants to make the virus names easier but you cannot find the table that
lists the names. The WHO does not give the original COVID-19 bug D614G a Greek
name. The first variant in Denmark, that caused the culling of millions of
mink, was ‘Cluster 5’ but the WHO does not give this a Greek name either, and
does not list it in their table, so they are pretending it did not happen. Way
to go idiots. The UK B117 variant is alpha the first variant but it is actually
the second.
The South Africa B1351, also known as 501YV2 in its early
stages, is beta. The Brazil P1, also called B11248, is gamma. The New York
B1526 variant then skips to iota. Thanks for the clarifications morons. Are you
confused yet? You will be. Perhaps that is the intent of the name change all
along? The California B1427/B1429 variant is epsilon. They are jumping all over
the alphabet at this point.
The India B1617 variant, also called E484Q/L452R, is delta.
The Texas BV-1 variant is not assigned a Greek name. The Japan variant/s are
not named but the P2 associated with Brazil that is called zeta may be
associated with the Japan variant. Who knows? Not the WHO. The WHO calls out a
variant from multiple countries called B1525 that was not known previously.
What is this? A catch-all basket to thrown things they cannot figure out? This
B1525 is called eta like the soulful, sometimes funky, Etta James.
The Philippines P3 variant is called theta. The second India
variant B16171 is named kappa. The Peru variant C37 is named lambda. Sure, the
world lambda just rolls off the tongue. The stupidity of it all makes you laugh
out loud. The Coronavirus Chronology will not adopt the new Greek names. They
will be referenced now and then when a variant is mentioned but other than
that, the silly trash will be ignored.
Instead of sitting around the conference room table playing
baby naming games, the WHO needs to start gathering and organizing documents
from the start of the pandemic that will help explain how they were working
with the filthy CCP to downplay the virus and screw the rest of the world.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 34.3 million. India is next with 29.6 million total virus cases.
The order of nations with the most total cases has not changed over the last few
weeks. The third highest total cases are Brazil at 17.5 million cases and then
France at 5.7 million and Turkey at 5.3 million total coronavirus cases.
Coronavirus has infected 177 million people worldwide. 3.8million people have died. Fortunately, 161 million global citizens have
recovered from the China Flu. 91% (161/177) of the people that become infected
with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame. This percentage has improved
by about 6 points over the last 6 weeks which is great news for the world. More
young people may be getting sick but they must be recovering faster. The 91% is
the highest recovery percentage of the pandemic.
Worldwide, 2.2% (3.8/177) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many months. 1 in every 47
people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this
number is relatively steady. 10 days ago, it was 2.2%. It is always 2.1%-2.2%
and will not change. The global mortality rate is at an impasse for months. It
will be a great day if it ever decreases.
2.3% (177/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 43 people on earth. The Wuhan
Virus has negatively impacted everyone on the planet.
The worldwide deaths from COVID-19 chart is shown above. 3.8
million global citizens are dead at the hands of the filthy CCP and Dictator Xi
that have been dishonest about the COVID-19 pandemic from the beginning. There
were 1.9 million deaths last year through 12/31/20. Thus, more people on earth
have died from the horrific China Flu this year than all of last year. This is
a notable statistic.
In the United States, 34.3 million people are infected with covid.615,235 Americans are dead. 28.4 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to nearly 83% (28.4/34.3) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number increases by almost 5 percentage-points over
the last 6 weeks after spending several weeks flat.
As stated above, more young people are becoming sick and
likely recovering faster giving the recovery numbers a slight boost. The US recovery
rate should be much higher but the rampant obesity guarantees that many
Americans contracting covid will breathe heavy, then die. The reason that the
US recovery percentage is lower than the rest of the world is because the
majority of us are overweight.
In the US, 1.8% (615/34335) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week, now for multi-months, but the
vaccines are supposed to reduce deaths. It is amazing how this number will not
budge month after month. It will be a big deal when the 1.8% drops lower.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is hitting
its stride. The death rate is at 2.2% globally which is higher than the US
reflecting the lower vaccination rates, less medical equipment such as
ventilators and oxygen tanks, less hospitals and less medical folks to work at
the facilities. And, also, of course, more people will die in poorer nations
than wealthier nations.
10.4% (34.3/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. 1 in every 10 Americans (1 in 9.6 to be
exact) have been stricken with coronavirus. The minority communities are
impacted disproportionately. This number remains relatively steady for several
weeks.
The United States has 19.4% (34.3/177) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program is making a difference. This percentage
was 22% a month ago so the drop is great news for the US but sadly, bad news
for other nations since their infection numbers are higher.
The US accounts for 16.1% (615/3829) of the China Flu deaths
in the world down about 2-1/2 percentage points over the last 6 weeks. The
trend is clearly lower. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world
are Americans. 6 weeks ago, it was 1 in 5. The numbers are going in the right
direction for the US but that means proportionally more people are dying
elsewhere such as India, Nepal, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Bolivia, Paraguay,
Argentina, Chile, Namibia, South Africa, Russia, etc...
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart
represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare
workers. Once the bell curve forms with active cases dropping dramatically, the
virus will be defeated, and healthcare workers can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart. However, several of these nations are dealing with nasty new outbreaks
and waves so no country is ever safe from the virus until it is eradicated
everywhere, or burns itself out.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last three months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes compress
slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a couple days
can be shaved off the current target dates. The Keystone Model will not change
since it needs to be consistent the whole way through the pandemic in its
approach.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines. The India and
Japan charts posted in recent articles display textbook bell curves.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps
identify the trend.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Flu story forward. The information in the Coronavirus Chronology articles
is vital to understanding the progress of the pandemic and knowing where the
hotspots exist. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be
referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire
pandemic in real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and distributed internationally. This is
Article 45 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for
historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This forty-fifth article is published on Tuesday, 6/15/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward.
All 45 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The last three articles are linked below if you want to come up to speed with the
COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracking Project is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days. The
Worldometer data is far superior for forecasting since it is updated more
reliably in real-time. The Johns-Hopkins data is lagging over the last 3 months
and only now is their US death count over 600K. Worldometer is over 615K dead
Americans currently.
The worst countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening
of the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls
over forming the bell shape.
The worst nations are at the bottom since their daily new
cases are higher in recent days (new outbreaks and waves beginning or in
progress) and it will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over to
form the bell shape.
Honduras (Continuous Wave)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve trying to flatten)
5/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of fourth wave)
6/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (trying to roll over)
5/26/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
6/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (trying to roll over)
5/29/21
New Case Peak Date
6/9/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (trying to roll over)
5/29/21 New Case Peak Date
6/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (curve is flattening)
6/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever)
6/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for fifth wave on 5/27 and 6/2/21)
6/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to roll over)
6/2/21 New Case Peak Date
6/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/4/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
6/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to roll over)
6/5/21 New Case Peak Date
6/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to roll over)
6/5/21 New Case Peak Date
6/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to roll over)
6/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for fifth wave occurring in June)
6/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
daily cases ever)
6/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve goes parabolic)
6/10/21 New Case Peak Date
6/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases of this wave are 6/2 and 6/10/21)
6/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/10/21 New Case Peak Date
6/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/12/21 New Case Peak Date
6/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of wave 3)
6/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 6/11 and 6/12/21)
6/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fourth wave)
6/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 6/4, 6/12 and 6/13/21)
6/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fourth wave)
6/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
6/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fourth wave)
7/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
6/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 6/9, 6/10 and 6/14/21)
6/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave and second highest ever)
6/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
6/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for third wave)
7/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
6/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for fourth wave during last 4 days)
7/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Mexico is placed on the bad list above; it can no longer be ignored. Mexico’s daily new cases chart is shown and described above. Mexico’s active cases chart is taking out the highs from the second wave in January and February which is an ugly sign for the path ahead. The infections migrate from Venezuela and Columbia up through Central America, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and now into Mexico. The US will have to remain vigilant for new infections on the southern border with Mexico over the next couple months. The US should smartly send vaccines into central and southern Mexico to stave off the spread coming up from Central America.
Central America remains a coronavirus hotspot as mentioned.
Panama is in this troubled mix as well and the island nations to the east such
as Dominican Republic and Haiti. Some of these active cases charts hint that
they want to roll over which is great news for the days ahead, however, Haiti
is in bad shape. If the US can focus vaccines to certain underdeveloped
nations, place Haiti at the top of the list. They are always screwed when
disasters hit since they are such a poor nation and would appreciate the help.
The central region of South America remains in trouble but a
bit less so. Uruguay is taken off the bad list since its active cases curve is
starting to roll over lower. Paraguay may be there any day. Bolivia is smacked
around day after day so hopefully it will follow Paraguay to the Promised Land but
the jury remains out.
Other nations taken off the bad list over the last 10 days
are Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Peru, Argentina, Trinidad & Tobago and
Bahrain. These countries have succeeded at rolling over their active cases
charts to form the bell shape and prove that they are on the mend. They cannot
let their guard down and must remain on the same path and conditions will
continue improving each day. South Korea continues having trouble shaking the
covid monkey off its back but makes slow progress.
Indonesia is in bad shape with the current wave 4 charts
going parabolic. Indonesia is in the bad place that Malaysia was in about a
month ago. Indonesia needs to grab the covid tiger by the tail immediately. The
Philippines is showing elevated daily cases and a flat active cases chart.
Philippines remains challenged and it is a country that has been hit hard over
the last year. It may have to be added to the bad list next time.
Bangladesh is a surprise with its daily new cases on the
rise again in a potential fourth wave. Bangladesh will be added to the bad list
next time unless conditions improve this week. Myanmar (Burma) reports a big
spike in cases as the country remains under a military coup with widespread
social unrest. India and Nepal improve but the surrounding nations Bangladesh,
Myanmar and Sri Lanka remain challenged or may be slipping back into trouble.
Afghanistan is in bad shape again. Ditto Mongolia.
China is dealing with an outbreak in Guangzhou and Shenzhen
in southern China. The Yantian port is key to exporting parts, equipment and
products internationally. Shipping delays are guaranteed as the port city is
shutdown to contain the virus. How many times has the Coronavirus Chronology
said, “It’s the ports.” The major spread of coronavirus is via the world’s
ports. The world’s economy will be negatively impacted by the current China
outbreak in Guangzhou.
The Chinese sent the Wuhan Virus to all corners of the earth
when they placed infected people on airplanes in December 2019 and
January/February of 2020 so the airport terminals were major infection zones
but the outbreaks in recent months around the world mainly begin from the port
cities. Sounds like a great focus for a graduate student in epidemiology. There
is something about the ports, the ships, the cargoes, the sailors on the ships
and other maritime concerns that promote the spread of coronavirus. It’s all
about the ports.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia remain challenged by COVID-19. Ditto Oman.
Bahrain was taken off the bad list above as its active cases chart begins
rolling over lower.
Africa remains a hotspot of concern. South Africa, Namibia,
Botswana, and then central Africa with the DRC (Congo) are in bad shape. Uganda
remains challenged. Zimbabwe is troubled and should be added to the bad list
above next time. Also keep an eye on Tunisia and French Guinea.
Portugal requires close monitoring. International travelers
are flocking to the beautiful Portuguese beaches that are populated with pretty
ladies in colorful bikinis. What fun. But with that joy comes infections.
Portugal’s daily cases are rising gradually. Portugal should be placed on the
bad list since a wave 4 is likely starting and underway. The active cases curve
curls higher. Portugal is going to have to clamp down on the partying because
there are infected maskless people spreading covid on those beaches. Portugal
will probably appear on the bad list next time.
The UK is described above with the chart presentations. The
next few days are critical for the UK to see if the daily new cases continue
the sideways move which means the current wave 4 will not be that bad, or, if
the new cases spike higher this week and maybe go parabolic which would be
disastrous.
The northern hemisphere is in good shape with more of its
populations vaccinated than the southern hemisphere and the summer season is
ahead which helps tamp down the virus spread. The southern hemisphere is going
into the winter season and will be a harbinger on what the northern hemisphere can
expect this Fall.
The next list focuses on the US with 10 states remaining
challenged. The peak in daily new cases and projections for the peaks in active
cases are provided as per the Keystone Model. The flattening and roll over of
the active cases curve forming the bell shape indicates the virus is being
defeated. America has lots to celebrate including the approaching summer
weather.
The states below have flat or rising active cases curves.
The worst three states are at the bottom since their daily new cases are higher
in recent days and it will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over
to form the bell shape.
Kentucky (Continuous Wave) (data
is problematic; daily new cases are likely underreported)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over lower)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flatter than a newlywed’s souffle; it needs to roll over; California’s
active cases chart is preventing the US active cases chart from rolling over
faster)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat and trying to roll over)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave 4/26, 5/3 and 5/14/21)
6/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
5/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
6/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
6/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Several states appear at the top of the bad list probably due to poor data collection and reporting. Nonetheless, the states must remain on the list until their active cases curves roll over. Only then is it verified that COVID-19 is being defeated in that state. The seven states listed at the top of the list would be expected to disappear over the coming couple-three weeks.
Colorado is taken off the bad list as its active cases chart
rolls over lower. Washington, Louisiana and Hawaii are essentially the only three
bad states out of 50. Alabama and Arkansas are under scrutiny as well and may
appear on the list next time. Nebraska also requires attention.
The seven US states at the top of the list are likely
underreporting the daily new cases. Their respective active cases curves head
higher and higher for months, while the daily new cases move lower in the same
time period. Those two data sets are counter to each other when they should be
in sync.
The summer heat begins which further helps the northern
hemisphere eradicate covid. Folks are outside enjoying the warm nights. More
time outside and less time indoors helps tamp down the virus transmission. The main
concern is the southern states and the west where the heat becomes too intense
chasing people inside to air conditioning where they comingle spreading virus.
California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and
Arkansas may be subject to virus spread in the weeks ahead.
Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and Louisiana are the four
least vaccinated states with 40% or less of the population vaccinated. 15
states have less than 55% vaccinated. 13 democrat states are over 70%
vaccinated. Southern states are the least vaccinated as they move into air
conditioning season; this is not a good recipe.
Employers continue complaining that the extra supplemental
unemployment compensation implemented during the pandemic is encouraging people
to stay home and not work. Two dozen republican states stop the supplemental
payments screwing the common folks living in those states. The supplemental
should have never been offered but taking something back is cruel and people do
not ever forget someone that screwed them out of money.
Many parents are having difficulty returning to work because
of childcare. Many childcare facilities are shut down so one of the parents
must stay home and watch the kids. They are not staying home because of the
supplemental payments. The only demographic that is gaming the system is the
young single males from 18 to 30 years old.
The local dollar store manager said three young single male
employees are not back to work as yet because they are receiving the
supplemental payments above unemployment compensation. They are partying all
day drinking beer and smoking pot not having to return to work until they have
to but this is only a small portion of the millions that are unemployed. Many
are looking for work and cannot find it despite the pronouncements of jobs
everywhere. Sure, businesses are willing to hire you if you work like a slave for
peanuts.
Most of those young men taking it easy and partying will not
be incentivized to go back to work after losing the supplemental. They will
start making calls and lining up a job about 2 weeks before their unemployment
ends. Businesses can moan all they want but most are not raising wages to
attract employees so they can keep crying those crocodile tears. The reason that
businesses are not raising wages is because the supplemental payments are
running out this summer and if they raise wages, they will be on the hook for
that forever. If the companies wait it out a month or two more, and limp along,
complaining the whole time, they will get the employees back and still working
at their slave wages. Isn’t crony capitalism great?
Also, restaurants that are not saying much about the lack of
workers have another game going. Why is it that restaurants are packed to the
rafters but at the same time managers complain they cannot find workers? The
two do not jive. If there are not enough workers, you must limit the customers
otherwise they will have a horrible dining experience and bad mouth your
establishment. If you are operating at capacity, you have enough workers. What
gives? Which scenario is correct? It is like the 1970’s. Employees are likely working
‘under the table’.
There are probably many workers that are remaining on
unemployment compensation, and receiving the supplemental compensation, and
working under the table for cash at the restaurant (not on the books
officially). Of course, this is illegal but it happens at any business that is
trying to make money or survive. The business can get into big trouble if an
inspector happens to catch an employee working and find out they are also
collecting unemployment. The manager likely keeps them in back and tells them
to exit the rear door and go home on a hand signal of if they see inspectors
walk through the door.
The manager likely pays several employees with cash each
day. These cash-workers can clean the establishment, do all the dishes, and the
cooking in the kitchen, while the actual employees receiving the official
paychecks are out front waiting tables and operating the cash register. The
restaurant is happy because it is packed and everyone is joyful swigging down
booze and leaving big tips while the employees, most of modest means, are
enjoying a triple-dip of unemployment compensation, supplemental, and under the
table cash. The only one screwed is the government paying people while they are
also working and also not receiving tax money owed. No one sheds a tear for the
government losing out. Instead, everyone laughs. Folks, if you have not grown
up in the trenches, you have no idea as to how the real world works.
Sadly, suicides increased substantively especially with
teenage girls over the last year during the pandemic. People become lonely and
start thinking negative thoughts. The Japanese women commit suicide at an
alarming pace. Drug overdoses are also higher during the pandemic. It is
disheartening to deal with such devastating news. It is too difficult for many
to get the demons off their back.
If you are depressed, search out and find people you can
talk to it is the only way. Talking will help you get to the root of what is
bothering you and then you can release it from your body. Talking period will
help so visit the local thrift stores or anywhere, the grocery store,
laundromat, café, and strike up a conversation with someone. You would be
surprised how people will talk for a few minutes. Talking in general will help
you get things off your chest. Find someone you can trust and they will help
you out.
Although lockdowns may help stop the spread of a pandemic
and prevent the hospitals from being overrun, there is a human cost on the
other side of the ledger. The isolation hurts a person’s mental, emotional and
psychological health. Some people, and children, are in abusive households and
their only escape is when they are not home. In a lockdown, they are locked-up
with their fear. It breaks your heart, but it is everyday life.
When is the pandemic over? With the US daily new cases
dropping rapidly and conditions improving into the Independence Day holiday,
when do we know that the pandemic is over? Will it ever be over? The Novavax
CEO says yesterday that COVID-19 booster shots will be around for years. From
big pharma’s standpoint, the pandemic will rage ahead for a few years, and the
CEO’s will coax people to take shots each Fall like the flu shot. Everyone
talks their own book (hyping something that will make themselves money).
The early fear of the pandemic was that the hospitals would
be overrun and the big test came in January of this year. The hospitals are no
longer overrun. Is this a good metric to use to say the pandemic is defeated? The
vaccines are likely preventing deaths so now that millions of doses have been
administered, is that a good metric to say the pandemic is over?
The US daily infections and active cases charts are heading
lower. Are these metrics useful in declaring the pandemic over? Who declares it
over? Certainly not the corrupt WHO. President Biden? One of the medical
talking heads? Perhaps Keystone will declare when the pandemic is officially
over? It is worthy of discussion.
America is moving on from the pandemic regardless of what
the talking heads say. The China Flu may develop into a Fall-time seasonal
consideration each year, like the flu shot, from here on out. The Whitehouse
and CDC messaging will be interesting going forward. They want people to keep
getting vaccinated but the interest will likely fall off rapidly again. The
Whitehouse is going to end up talking to itself about getting vaccinated. Biden
wants to brag about the pandemic being defeated but at the same time he wants
people worried so they get vaccinated. By July and August, Americans will be
partying like the old days, without a care in the world, proclaiming, “Virus,
schmirus.”
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 6/15/21, at 8:00 PM EST: 28 Chinese fighter jets buzz Taiwan. China is pushing back against the show of unity among the West and repeating that they consider Taiwan to be part of China. The dirtbag communists took over Hong Kong easily since it was on the same land mass. Taiwan is a different animal since it is an island. China could take it over militarily tomorrow but the huge problem is logistics. Moving the machinery and people across the ocean to occupy Taiwan and then the supplies to feed everyone and so forth would be a Herculean task. China knows an occupation could quickly develop into a nightmare. The Chinese jets buzz the southern end of Taiwan where they are likely sizing up a small island if they do invade. The communists would then spend time building the military presence on that island and coordinating future logistics for when they do invade Taiwan. The West will have to make a decision to not let that happen. The Taiwanese are great people; intelligent, funny, level-headed, fair and great friends. Dirtbag Dictator Xi and his CCP henchmen are no doubt plotting a nefarious path ahead. China may also attempt a soft takeover of Taiwan like Hong Kong where the military enters under the guise of helping with the pandemic. This scenario is less likely as the current outbreak subsides with daily new covid cases dropping for a couple weeks and the Taiwan active covid cases curve rolling over to the downside to form the bell shape. The US and West must decide if they want to make a stand and protect Taiwan from the Chinese communists. They should. Never trust a communist. They will slit your throat while you sleep. The US and West will likely be at war with China in a few years.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 6/15/21, at 9:00 PM EST: Honeywell is shutting-down two N95 mask production lines due to lack of demand. One year ago people would have killed for a N95 mask and now you cannot give them away. Regeneron says its antibody treatment lowers the risk of death in COVID-19 patients based on a 10K patient trial in the UK. New York and California, representing the East Coast and West Coast of America, are fully opening their economies. The EU is opening up its economy to United States travelers but is waiting for America to offer reciprocation (the EU wants the US to permit European travelers to visit the US). Johns-Hopkins American deaths data crosses the 600K grim milestone so the US cable news media pumps this headline. The Worldometer data is approaching 616K deaths. 400K Americans died under President Trump's watch and more than 200K are dead under President Biden's watch thus far. The CDC calls the India B1617 variant (delta) a "Variant of Concern." These phrases do not mean anything to average people. Former Whitehouse spokesman Slavitt proclaims, "The Delta variant is like covid on steroids." US Surgeon General Murthy is interviewed on CNN and repeats what is already known in the news. The India variant is "more transmissible" and "more dangerous" and "causes severe illness." Murthy says, "90%of the cases (in the UK) are this variant (B1617)" and "it is key to get vaccinated with both doses." He says the India B1617 variant accounts for "10% of US cases." The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines are only 33% effective against the variant after one dose and 88% effective after both shots. There is no J&J data on its effectiveness against B1617.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 6/15/21, at 10:00 PM EST: Fauci and Collins have been in hiding since the weekend when Fauci proclaimed that questioning Him is questioning science. He did need to go away for a few days after that. The NIH releases a report stating that coronavirus may have been in the US as early as December 2019. This has already been previously established. Prior testing had shown that there are Americans that were likely infected in December and January. Collins runs the NIH. Obviously, the report is released to try and run cover for the good doctors and whoever else is involved with the twisted mess with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. They are trying to create a narrative that the disease was prevalent sooner than thought therefore you are supposed to believe the natural origin theory. Is this what society has actually become? It is what it is. The report did not take the 2 minutes to find out if anyone sick had just returned from Wuhan, China. It is all games all the time. No wonder people do not believe what they are told anymore. Fauci needs to come clean on the situation. The Chinese communists will never tell the truth about the origin of covid. The NIH believes that the American people are stupid. The timing of the release of the report is an attempt to keep hidden what actually went on at the Wuhan Labs that work in conjunction with China's bioweapons programs. Even Jon Stewart, the liberal comedian always cheerleading democrats while denigrating republicans, makes fun of the Wuhan Lab situation joking that the virus started next to the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus Lab but everyone was too stupid to realize that the novel coronavirus came from the lab. Stewart mocks the "follow the science" mantra, creating the image of scientists mixing up things at the Wuhan Lab, joking, "The pandemic is more than likely caused by science!" The audience laughs hysterically.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/16/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 12.6K daily new cases yesterday another good number. Monday and Tuesday numbers have not escalated so the US is looking real good. The downtrend continues. 353 Americans die yesterday more obese people breathing their last breath.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/16/21, at 7:00 AM EST: Russia reports 14.2K daily new cases the new wave 3 is well underway. Putin and Biden are arriving in Geneva right now to begin meetings. Putin should be worried about the new coronavirus outbreak occurring at home. Mexico reports 1.2K daily new cases a subdued number so perhaps the new wave beginning in Mexico will peter out quickly. Mexico's active cases are at record highs. Paraguay and Bolivia's active cases curves are peaking and rolling over which will be great news if it continues. The central South America area has been hit hard.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/16/21: The Wuhan Lab leak scandal continues. The Washington Post, which presents the news from the left perspective, owned by King Bezos, slaps Jon Stewart for not being loyal to the coronavirus natural origin theory. WaPo tells readers to not get their coronavirus information from comedians or sports or Hollywood celebrities. If so, why are the celebrities paraded across television screens to encourage others to receive jabs? The liberal-leaning media such as CNN, MSNBC and broadcast television (ABC, CBS, NBC) continue labeling the Wuhan Lab leak theory as a conspiracy theory while exalting the natural origin theory as gospel, while the republican-leaning media, such as Fox News, Newsmax and talk radio, call the natural origin theory a fantasy while exalting the Wuhan Lab leak theory. Will we ever know the truth? It is a political pandemic. The two tribes, republicans and democrats, place their allegiance and loyalty to their tribe rather than the United States of America. That is when all is lost. Dr Redfield, former CDC director, is interviewed on Fox News and explains at the start of the pandemic he thought the lab leak origin had serious credibility but Dr Fauci did not agree instead believing in the natural origin theory (was Fauci already trying to cover up US funding and involvement in gain of function research at the Wuhan Lab?). Redfield says there has been a lack of interest by the US government to pursue the lab leak theory and instead simply roll over and accept the natural origin theory. Redfield says a mistake in the beginning was calling coronavirus a SARS-light virus, which it is not, and the treatment direction, preparation and handling of the pandemic would have been different. The asymptomatic spread was deadly. He says the WHO was highly-compromised by China. Of course they were, and are. The WHO has no credibility. Redfield believes that the Wuhan Lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation for the origin of COVID-19.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/17/21, at 4:30 AM EST: German biopharmaceutical CureVac provides disappointing results with its mRNA vaccine that is found to only be 47% effective against COVID-19. In European trading, CVAC stock crashes -50% wiping out one-half of the shareholder's capital (money). 40K people participated in the CureVac study. The CureVac vaccine can be administered in small doses and stored in a regular refrigerator which would be great for helping undeveloped nations, however, this is not meant to be. The CDC is concerned about the outbreak in central South America and the virulency of the Peru C37 variant (lambda). The so-called, newly-named, Lambda variant, it just rolls off the tongue, lam-ba-da variant, it would be funny if the pandemic was not so tragic, is a tough mutation as evidenced by the terrible conditions in central South America over the last 2 months. The vaccines may not be as effective against the Peru C37 variant as evidenced by the ongoing South America outbreak.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/17/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 14.1K daily new cases the numbers remaining in check. 434 Americans die yesterday; the death numbers need to come down. The obese folks keep dropping like flies. California's active cases chart finally ticks downward by a hair so it would be great if the curve would roll over. California's flat active cases curve is getting old; it needs to roll over so the US active cases curve can make more headway downward. South Africa reports 13.2K daily new cases a huge spike higher the largest of the current wave 3. Lord, Have Mercy on Their Souls. Cases continue spiking next door in Namibia and Botswana, too. There is likely a nasty variant at play in is southern Africa. The outbreak in southern Africa is like the outbreak in central South America in the way it is developing. The South America outbreak (Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru) appears to be coming under control but if southern Africa follows the same path, they have a month or two of misery ahead. The WHO and other organizations are doing a good job with genomic testing in South America. It would be great if those resources can be put to immediate use in southern Africa to find out what is going on there. Indonesia daily new cases are at their highs for the ongoing wave 4 in progress. Batten down the hatches Indonesia, the virus is only going to get worse for you in the coming days and week or two. UK reports 9.1K daily new cases. Bad news. The 9.1K takes out the prior high at 8.1K for the ongoing wave 4 in progress. The UK 3-day MA trend line prints a higher high so the uptrend should continue. That is a shame. The UK flattened out with daily cases for 4 days but now a spike higher occurs. It is only one day's data so the Brit's will have to keep walking on covid eggshells for the next few days to see what trend develops (the spike to 9.1K may be a one-off). Oh-no. Portugal crosses the 17K total deaths grim milestone. Worse, Portugal reports 1.4K daily new cases the highest since February. Portugal is starting wave 4. The beautiful ladies in their colorful bikinis lure the public out to the beaches in big numbers where the vaccinated and unvaccinated comingle and a new coronavirus spread begins. COVID-19 is one Hell of a sticky contagious bug. It is a covid booger on the tip of your finger; no matter how hard you shake your hand you cannot get rid of it. Portugal better do something fast before the new outbreak gets out of control. Good luck, Portugal. Spain would be wise to keep an eye on its neighbor.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/17/21, at 7:00 AM EST: A Royal Caribbean ship is docked after eight crew members test positive for coronavirus. The workers were fully-vaccinated. ABC reports that the cruise operator said the crew was vaccinated 6/4/21 so they would not be full-vaccinated, officially, until 2 weeks after the second shot, or one-shot if the J&J vaccine, on 6/18/21, tomorrow. Didn't the dolts know that? Of course they did. It may be a flimsy loin-cloth story used to avoid liability, or they want to downplay the infections so as not to deter others from becoming vaccinated perhaps at US government request, or they are stupid. It may be a little too soon after the pandemic to go on a vomit cruise. The fear-mongering in the US media about the India B1617 variant (delta) continues hourly probably to encourage people to become vaccinated. The India variant is increasing in the US and more so in the UK. However, when the UK B117 variant (alpha) slammed Michigan, USA, 3 months ago, sending the state into a tailspin, the variant remained a Michigan issue. Surrounding states such as Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania saw a spurt in new cases and the fear that a new outbreak was beginning was justified. But in a few days the cases in all the neighboring states rolled over lower and conditions in Michigan improved. This fractal (a previous pattern that may be repeated in the future) is more likely to present itself in the United States for the B1617 strain than the potential of a parabolic wave occurring. History rhymes so the limited damage from B117 would be expected to repeat for B1617 (but telling people this would deter them from getting vaccinated so the government likely pushes the fear story so people keep rolling up their sleeves; yes, it is a cynical view). Of course, we do not know what will happen with the India variant on American shores. Time will tell. But the expectation in the US would be that pockets of B1617 variant will likely appear but those areas can likely be contained as B117 was contained in Michigan. America and all nations have to give themselves some credit. The pandemic is raging on for a year and a half and a lot has been discovered and learned about handling the China Flu. The worst appears over for the US but Americans must remain vigilant.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/17/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Japan says the Tokyo state of emergency will end on Sunday, 6/20/21. The Olympics begin on 7/23/21. It is a strange Olympics since the athletes are training in isolation and will likely compete with thin crowds in the stands. Bloomberg reports that Japan may limit the number of spectators attending each event to 10K people. Japan failed at setting up a vaccination program, especially when they knew the Olympics were at play, but is now on the right track focusing on vaccinating the elderly population. Australia is botching its vaccine rollout. The AstraZeneca vaccine was to be used for people over 50 years old but concern over the blood clot issues has revised that guideline to those over 60 years old. This is creating angst in the population with Aussies shying away from the AstraZeneca shots and some of the folks that received one shot say they will not go back for the second hoping to get the Pfizer vaccine instead. There is no scientific data as yet on mixing vaccines. Australia is concerned that the supply of Pfizer vaccine will go like hotcakes while the AstraZeneca doses may languish in storage. If Aussies do not want the AstraZeneca vaccine, plenty of folks in poor nations would be happy to take the shots.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 6/17/21: Louisiana is the first democrat-leaning state to stop the supplemental unemployment compensation for laid off workers. 25 republican states have passed legislation to end the extra payments. People never forget who screwed them out of money. On CNBC, Dr Gottlieb discusses a study that says coronavirus may lead to long-term loss of brain tissue. The MRI scans of 800 people, average age of 60 years old, were studied over a one year period during which one-half the group was infected with coronavirus. The study indicates that the brain tissue, or gray matter, that is lost is near the area of the brain that controls the sense of smell and taste which is fascinating. Obviously, there is lots of future research required but this study may provide an initial indication as to why some people lose the sense of smell from COVID-19. England Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty brings a wet blanket to the covid party proclaiming that it will take five years before the vaccines handle all the different variants and mutations. Dr Fauci pops up in an interview for the first time in a few days. Fauci discusses the US announcement of investing $3.2 billion in a program to develop antiviral pills for treating COVID-19.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/18/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Portugal reports 1.2K daily new cases after the prior days 1.4K cases. Lisbon is smartly strengthening its vigilance as the daily cases rise and active cases chart curls higher for Portugal. Too many countries are in crisis management all the time (handling one crisis after another due to incompetent leadership) instead of proactively attacking problems as they appear. Malaysia is on the mend but dragged its feet at handling the recent outbreak until the chart had gone parabolic. Indonesia is experiencing a new wave 4 currently and dragging its feet like Malaysia a month ago. Hopefully, Portugal will avoid a parabolic spike in daily new cases as long as they jump-in now and proactively try to nip the COVID-19 outbreak in the bud. Portugal should tell folks to enjoy the beaches but stay away from each other to every extent possible. Others should be told to stay home if they can. The bad part is the daily cases appearing in Portugal now are from the kisses and hugs about 8 days ago. Thus, if Portugal can be proactive immediately and inform the public of a new wave occurring in real-time, while holding their breath for the next week to see how the daily new cases develop, the ocean-facing nation has a chance to prevent the parabolic spike (infection acceleration). Oh-no. Speaking of Indonesia, daily new cases spike higher to 12.6K. Indonesia is now in a parabolic spike and will have no choice but to clamp down on the public as the infections spin out of control. Good luck Indonesia which will now be another nation going into crisis management with the pandemic.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/18/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The UK crosses the 4.6 million total cases milestone. Nearly 128K UK citizens are dead from the China Flu. Oh-no. The UK reports 11K daily new cases yesterday above the prior day's 9.1K cases. The UK active cases curve curls higher so that will have to rise, flatten, and roll over to form the bell shape before the new outbreak is under control. The UK has a new COVID-19 headache to deal with over the coming weeks. UK Prime Minister Johnson has lots of sleepless nights ahead. The India B1617 variant (delta) is the culprit and the US talking heads keep pounding the delta fear into American minds hoping to convince people to get vaccinated. Looking at the worsening situation in the UK, the India B1617 fear-mongering is justified, however, Americans are skeptical of the coronavirus information. There is a lot of water under the covid bridge over the last 1-1/2 year and the politicization and misinformation around the pandemic has taken a toll. The US reports 11.2K daily new cases yesterday and continues in a good direction. California crosses the 3.8 million total cases milestone more than most countries.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/18/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Afghanistan is hit with a major outbreak with daily new cases at 2.3K the highest ever. Afghan hospitals are overwhelmed. The US closes the embassy in Kabul after 114 people test positive for coronavirus. Singapore coronavirus data and charts appear in good shape but the government says it will slow the reopening of the economy. Singapore has to be given credit for proactive governance; it appears there are smart people there trying to plan and remain vigilant against COVID-19. Over time, the world is becoming smarter at handling the Wuhan Virus. CNN reports that any day China will cross the 1 billion vaccine doses administered milestone. The population of China is 1.4 billion people. It is easy to vaccinate folks in a commie nation. You either roll up your sleeve and take the jab, or a gun is put to your head and your brains blown out. No wonder there is such an enthusiastic response to China's vaccination program. In time, China will have 100% participation in vaccinations by all 1.4 billion people that are 'living' in the communist nation.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 6/18/21: President Biden speaks touting 300 million vaccine doses administered in his first 150 days. Sleepy Joe should have made this his goal two months ago and he would have achieved victory. The goals of vaccinating 70% of the US adult population with at least one dose by Independence Day and also fully vaccinating 160 million Americans are in jeopardy. 65% of the adult population is vaccinated with at least one dose and 149 million people are fully vaccinated nearing the goals but close does not count. July 4th is only 2 weeks away. If one of the vaccines receive official approval instead of emergency approval, the military, colleges, schools and businesses will force vaccinations and perhaps allow Biden to squeak out a victory but he would need to see that approval immediately. Let's double-check the numbers since there is a lot of yarn-spinning over the last 16 months and the chronology is the only document keeping it straight. The CDC COVID Data Tracker says 316 million total vaccine doses have been administered during the pandemic. Remember, King Donnie Trump is credited with 20 million doses administered before he left office on 1/20/21. Trump did not attain his goal of 20 million shots in arms by the end of the year but he did achieve his goal before he left office 3 weeks hence. Thus, Biden has achieved 296 million total vaccine doses in arms (316-20) 4 million shy of the goal he touts but we will let Sleepy Joe slide on this one. It is close enough for government work. The Biden administration was obviously looking for the nice little package to provide to the media with a pretty bow on top and that was 300 million doses in 150 days so it was shoe-horned to fit. Everything is a soundbite in today's sick society. In fairness, the administration may be looking at a different data set that squeezes out the 300 million. Regardless, at the 1 million doses per day vaccination rate, the 300 million will be crossed this week. The CDC postpones the emergency meeting concerning myocarditis occurring in young people after vaccinations. It was ridiculous for the CDC to schedule an 'emergency' meeting one week in the future. That does not sound like an emergency. Now the emergency meeting is pushed forward another week. It is funny. Here is a tip CDC; do not call it an emergency meeting if no one cares about the meeting.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 6/19/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Russia is hit with 17.3K daily new cases a big spike higher the highest of the new wave 3 in progress. Russia turns into an infected covid nest as Dictator Putin traipses around Geneva. 453 Ruskies die yesterday the deadliest day in 3 months. Perhaps the India B1617 variant (delta) is loose in Russia? The WHO says the India variant is becoming the dominant variant worldwide now in 80 countries. B1617 was in over 40 countries a couple months ago. There are nearly 200 countries on earth, give or take, depending on who is winning the wars, and if the India strain is as immensely infectious as touted, you would think the B1617 variant would be in all countries by now. The medical studies suggest, which is a loaded word, that the India B1617 variant is 60% more transmissible than the UK B117 variant (alpha). The UK reports 10.5K daily new cases less than the prior day's 11.0K cases. The daily cases chart is starting to hint that it wants to go parabolic (exponential) but give it a couple more days. It was interesting that the UK leveled-off for 4 days, then took a spurt higher but now is perhaps leveling-off again. The UK will answer a lot of questions about the transmissibility of B1617 in the days ahead. Uh-oh. This is bad. Brazil reports 98.1K daily new cases the highest ever. No wonder the Brazilians are taking to the streets in protest many calling for the ousting of President Bolsonaro. Where is he hiding? Bolsonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro may be the most clueless leader that has handled the pandemic in the entire world. Brazil crosses the 500K deaths grim milestone. Bolivia crosses the 16K deaths grim milestone but there is hope as the daily cases drop and the active cases curve is curling over to the downside. Over the coming days and week or two, Bolivia should notice a substantive improvement in conditions. Ditto Paraguay. Uruguay is leading lower so central South America is starting to mend if they stay the course. The Argentina and Chile active cases curves are also curling over and dropping like Uruguay. Indonesia reports 13K daily new cases another record for this current wave 4 that is serious business. Indonesia has already lost control whether they know it or not. Over the next couple days, the daily cases may set all-time records for the pandemic. 290 Indonesians die yesterday; a spike in deaths the last couple days and this will only become worse. Bangladesh is in a new outbreak. Africa is emerging as the new major global coronavirus hotspot. COVID-19 is whack-a-mole. Every time the virus is beaten down somewhere, it pops up somewhere else. It's getting old. China screws the world bigtime with the Wuhan Flu. Portugal reports 1.3K daily new cases a touch above the prior day's 1.2K cases not moving in the right direction but no sign of an exponential pop higher as yet. The days ahead determines Portugal's fate over the next month or two.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 6/19/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The US reports 13.4K daily new cases yesterday. This is good news since the Friday numbers are typically the largest but 13K remains in check. The relaxing of the mask guidelines for vaccinated Americans is not leading to a significant spike in cases which is good news. The authorities are extremely worried about the India B1617 variant on American soil but so far so good. Last week, 10% of US new cases are the B1617 and the week before it was 6%. The talking heads continue to beat the unvaccinated Americans over the head with the fear cudgel but if people do not want vaccinated, they are not going to get vaccinated. Broadway, the entertainment center in New York City, is picky about who will be attending shows. Broadway is not accepting vaccinated folks that received the AstraZeneca vaccine since it was not yet approved for emergency use in the US like the other vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and J&J). America, land of crony capitalism and the have's and have not's, is now the land of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Vice President Harris places a guilt-trip on the unvaccinated labeling them as not caring about their fellow Americans if they do not take the shot. This garbage talk and baby games are unwarranted and will only serve to separate the country and create deep divisions that will perhaps never heal. Leaders should rethink their rhetoric. For gosh sakes, it is only a vaccination. Why would people use a vaccination shot as a judge of patriotism? The hospitals are not overrun and at the same time well-prepared for any further outbreaks. If unvaccinated people get sick and die, so be it, that is their choice. 5 million kids under 18 years old have been vaccinated in the US which may be a game-changer in relation to the fear about the B1617 variant. Young people are accounting for proportionally more infections around the world these days (reference the US chart above showing age groups). The UK has not vaccinated its young population under 18 years old. Thus, as the UK is watched to note the spread of the India B1617 variant in real-time, a gauge for the US, America would be predicted to have a better outcome since much of the youth population has taken the shot. The medical officials say the India B1617 variant cases in the US are doubling every 7 to 10 days. The talking heads say the majority of people getting sick are unvaccinated. This is funny each time you hear it. Duh. What is expected? They better hope the vaccinated people are not getting sick. Of course the majority of coronavirus illnesses are unvaccinated people. Duh. The CDC and others only repeat this mantra as a means of encouraging people to get vaccinated. The Biden administration should be happy that vaccinations are holding at about 1 million doses per day and not dropping further. 393 Americans die from coronavirus yesterday with the 7-day MA trend line at 329 deaths. The US deaths remain stubbornly high as folks with comorbidities such as diabetes and obesity continue dying.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 6/19/21: The Guardian reports that fewer than one-half the US states have vaccinated more than one-third of the black population. Vaccine inequality is at play but not to the extent that folks will tout in this race-bait society. Across the board in the US, more whites are vaccinated than blacks but do not be quick to pump the race narrative. Much of this was discussed months ago. As vaccines were rolled-out, the elderly, hospital and healthcare workers, first responders and medics were vaccinated first. There are proportionally far more whites in the medical field (doctors and nurses) so right off the get-go you will have higher numbers of whites vaccinated but these folks are taking care of us all. As vaccination sites opened, those folks that could make appointments were first to get vaccinated in the older and more general population. For many weeks, months, the white women between 30 years old and 80 years old were the most vaccinated portion of society. Why? Because these are all the Mombook (Facebook) mothers that are computer savvy. Many of the mature white American women are well-versed on computers and have either a desktop or laptop computer at home as well as smartphones. Obviously, many Americans of all races, religions and ethnicities have these same skills but the white women smoke everyone. Thus, the white women were first to schedule vaccinations and finish their 2-shot sequences after the elderly and healthcare workers. The vaccination data is going to skew heavily white. People had to drive to the vaccination sites so this is an advantage again for white women since most are better off financially and own reliable cars to get to the shot site and back home. Disadvantaged folks had a more difficult time at scheduling appointment since some do not have computers. Others do not have cars so it is hard to get to the sites. This should not be viewed so much as inequality as it is a rapid roll-out of vaccinations simply sticking needles in any arm willing to roll-up a sleeve. This is a once in a century pandemic so keep that in mind. Further compounding the racial divide in vaccinations is the concern of some Blacks about the vaccines due to the medical system mistreating folks in the past such as the Tuskegee experiments (evil syphilis study). Putting all this behind us, the vaccinations proceed through the white women and to America's credit there has been a concerted effort, and it only increases daily, to get into the inner cities and poor rural areas to bring the shots closer to the people. All in all, it is easy to see how Blacks and other may feel like they have been slighted or placed on the back burner but that is not the case. As long as the big push to get the minorities vaccinated continues in every way possible for at least another couple months, no American will be able to say that they did not have a chance to be vaccinated.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 6/19/21: The concern over the India B1617 variant (delta) continues. The UK B117 (alpha) variant is 50% more transmissible than the standard COVID-19 bug (initial Wuhan strain) and the India B1617 is 60% more transmissible than alpha. If 1 in 10 people become infected with the initial Wuhan ancestral strain, for a sampling size of 1,000 people, 100 people become infected with covid out of the 1,000. The UK B117 variant is 50% more transmissible so that would be 150 people getting infected out of the 1,000 instead of 100 people. For the India B1617, which 'they' say is 60% more transmissible than B117 (looking at the data, the jury is out on this proclamation), 240 people out of the 1,000 would be infected or 1 in 4 people. Time will tell if this claim is correct. The UK serves a good test case. Under these numbers pumped by the medical professionals, the cases should be going exponentially higher. Perhaps the numbers are a bit overzealous so as to scare folks into getting vaccinated.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 6/20/21, at 7:00 AM EST: South Africa reports 13.6 daily new cases another record high for the current wave 3. Hospital beds are in short supply. South Africa is giving non-coronavirus patients the bum's rush ushering them out of the hospital to make room for the COVID-19 patients increasing at an alarming rate. South Africa is in crisis management. Africa is the new major global hotspot and only 2 in 100 people are vaccinated compared to the rest of the world where 20 in 100 people are vaccinated. We have to help our African brothers more. Unfortunately, India was smacked hard with the B1617 devastating the country that is the largest manufacture of vaccine in the world. The WHO runs the COVAX program providing shots to underprivileged nations and says the vaccine supplies planned for Africa took a major hit due to the outbreak in India. It was bad luck and India had not planned wisely between waves. Every nation has made mistakes so there is not point in placing blame only to record the events so future pandemics can find ways to avoid problems. A couple vaccine factories strategically placed in Africa will greatly help tamp down any future pandemics. Big pharma will have to step up to the plate. Russia reports 18K daily new cases a record high for the current wave 3. The UK reports 10.3K daily new cases, elevated, but not taking off drastically parabolic as yet. As discussed above, with the doom and gloom transmissibility picture, the UK cases would be expected to be exponential already; they are not, yet. Interestingly, looking at the UK daily cases chart, the second and third waves in the UK took off at a steeper rate than the current wave 4. This does not make sense if the scientists are correct saying the India B1617 variant is as highly transmissible as claimed. The current wave 4 would already be expected to be parabolic if B1617 is highly contagious. The UK may not be in as much trouble as feared but the coming days are key. PM Johnson is sleeping like his baby; he gets up every hour and cries. Indonesia reports nearly 13K daily new cases another record for the current wave 4. Mexico has the highest active cases ever. Bangladesh is slipping away into trouble with a new outbreak beginning. Columbia remains in terrible shape. Ditto El Salvador and Guatemala. Portugal is trying to steady the ship at 1.2K to 1.3K daily new cases the last couple days. This level is key and cases must remain below this range if Portugal wants to have a nice summer.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 6/20/21, at 8:00 AM EST: The US reports 7.8K daily new cases a nice low Saturday number that is sub 10K. Today's daily cases should be even lower. Can we get a sub 5K day? 170 Americans die yesterday from covid. The US active cases curve continues the slow gradual move lower unable to take a sharp move lower since the California active cases curve remains stubbornly flat and elevated. There must be a lot of sick long-covid people in the Golden State (or their data is problematic).
Note Added Sunday Evening, 6/20/21: The Foo Fighters rock and roll band plays at Madison Square Garden in New York City tonight to a packed crowd. Folks are having a great time, maskless, drunk as skunks, music blaring. Front man Dave Grohl, who was the drummer for the famous band Nirvana in the 1980's and 1990's, until Kurt Cobain's death, sings, "It's times like these, you learn to live again." Everyone at the event had to be vaccinated. Adding eight days, New York hospitals should keep an eye out on 6/28/21, give or take a couple days, to see if the daily new cases spike. Probably not since many crowded events have been occurring all over the country and COVID-19 remains in check. Remember in early April? The Texas Ranger baseball game had everyone scared that it would be a superspreader event due to the large attendance, but it was not. Thus, it has been a two-month period of crowded en=vents not leading to any increase in virus spread.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/21/21, at 10:00 AM EST: China stops the outbreak in Guangzhou reporting zero cases if you can believe the communists. China says 1.0 billion of its 1.4 billion population is vaccinated a notable milestone for ground zero of the pandemic. The jury remains out on the effectiveness of the Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccines especially on the variants. Indonesia reports another record day of 13.7K daily new cases for the current wave 4 now threatening to report the most daily new cases ever if 14.5K is exceeded. Indonesia crosses the 2 million total infections milestone. That is a lot of people. 371 Indonesians die yesterday a big spike higher. Indonesia is one-month behind Malaysia and will likely follow the same pattern. Portugal reports 981 daily new cases a lower number than recent days but temper that hope since it is Sunday data which tends to be the lowest of the week. The next few days tells the story for Portugal for the summer ahead. The Portugal 3-day MA trend line for daily new cases is printing a couple higher highs and higher lows so the uptrend is confirmed. Testing is confirming a slight rise in India B1617 variant cases. Keep your fingers crossed Portugal; your fate will be known by the weekend. It is nice to see the active cases curves roll over to start to form the bell shape for Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina and Peru although Peru's data can be messy. These nations are on the mend but still have a lot of misery to handle. Hospital workers should notice conditions and caseloads improving with each passing day. That is a bad wave and outbreak in central South America over the last couple months and it receives the least attention from the world.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/21/21, at 10:30 AM EST: Woohoo. Whoopie. The US reports 4.4K daily new cases yesterday a sub 5K number. That is fantastic. It is Outtasite as Wilco would sing. Only 4,422 cases yesterday in a nation of 330 million people. Only 86 Americans die from the China Flu yesterday; less than one hundo. 86 is too many but there is a bright summer ahead for America. The pandemic is starting to appear in the rearview mirror. Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley (American football) posts a message to social media that he does not plan to get vaccinated. Beasley says he would quit football before taking the shot. He says it is his choice. The television medical talking heads are having conniptions over Beasley's statement since he influences lots of young men and boys. Doctors and medical officials are quick to offer rebuttals saying that some people, such as cancer patients, may not be able to take the vaccine (so the unvaccinated pose a risk to these folks). Also, the shots are not 100% effective. In addition, if Mr Beasley becomes sick, he will use hospital resources. Young children are not vaccinated which poses another risk. Despite these rebuttals, America is supposed to be a free country and if he does not want to take the shot, he should not. The monoclonal antibody treatments have been refined over the last year so even if someone becomes sick with covid, there should not be a worry about dying or becoming deathly sick despite the fear-mongering.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 6/21/21: A Federal judge blocks the CDC rules concerning cruise liners citing conflicts with the Constitution. The CDC wants to see 95% of cruise ships vaccinated before they sets sail but republican Governor DeSantis, who has designs on the Whitehouse in 2024, throws the CDC guidelines overboard without a life preserver. The cruises will set sail but if someone becomes sick and it spreads on board, the industry will sink. A small coronavirus outbreak occurs in Bradenton, Florida, Manatee County, when five unvaccinated county employees become sick and two die. One vaccinated person in contact with these individuals at the Florida government office is not sick. Officials are investigating the matter. Airlines are trying to deal with a lack of employees and greater demand for travel. Airports are as busy now as before the pandemic but less employees have returned creating delays and bottlenecks. Restaurants are disappointing patrons that request something on a menu but are told it is not available such as pastries (since the pastry chef remains off work). Long waits are creating negative dining experiences. Also, humans are not as courteous, empathetic or compassionate as years ago which is not surprising at the end of a multi-decade cyclical pattern a la Kondratiev.
Note Added Monday Evening, 6/21/21: The business owners and politicians complaining about employees not coming back to work fast enough are citing the JOLTS report that lists 9 million US job openings. There were over 20 million Americans that lost their jobs last year due to the pandemic. Many have returned to work but there are about 8 million that have not. If you add in the people that dropped out of the work force or are underemployed looking for better jobs, the 8 million number is more like 10 to 15 million people. With 9 million job openings, what is the problem? It is a skills-match game. If the jobs offered are technical and computer-oriented, but you are a bricklayer or laborer, that does not do you any good. There is a skills mismatch where highly technical job listings are offered but the people that need work do not have the advanced education. This is pitiful since five decades have gone by with the same scenario and promises that the skills mismatch would be narrowed. Nothing is ever done. Crony capitalism has destroyed the country. The rich are too greedy. What folks commenting on the matter need to understand is that the JOLTS report was running at 5 million to 6 million jobs for many months before the pandemic. In fact, it runs at about a 5 million job listing baseline. Taking this away from the 9 million current listings, is only 4 million new listings that pop-up over the last months. The worker shortage situation may be overblown. The restaurants, airlines, hotels and travel industries are impacted by a worker shortage as the wealthy want to enjoy vacations and dining experiences but 4 million new job listings, for 10 to 15 million people looking, is not as big a disconnect as advertised on television. After the privileged class take their vacations over the next couple months, the travel industry will likely settle-in and the worker shortage complaints subside.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/22/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 9.3K daily new cases yesterday a sub 10K number for a weekday is excellent. Each day is a continual improvement despite the constant negative fear-mongering on television that is trying to push people to get vaccinated. The participation in vaccinations by younger folks has dropped off in recent days. 213 Americans die yesterday. The US active cases curve is starting to flatten more than going down which is not good. Blame California since its active cases curve will not come down. Does California have that many sick folks that remain sick for months and months never getting better always needing medical attention? It may be a data issue in California but nonetheless their data greatly impacts the US and is the reason the US active cases cannot come down more sharply as would be expected. Missouri daily new cases were ramping higher but over the last 3 days subside again. Louisiana reports elevated daily cases and remains a state of concern. The Alabama daily cases are subsiding again but its active cases curve needs to roll over to the downside. Cases are also improving in Arkansas. The southern states and several Midwest states are under close watch since their vaccination rates are low compared to the rest of the country and the hot humid weather will chase them inside into the air conditioning where the virus spreads easier.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/22/21, at 6:30 AM EST: India will cross over 30 million total cases soon. The good news is only 39K daily new cases in India yesterday a beautiful site. Daily cases ran over 400K per day in early May so what a difference a month makes. Due to the lack of vaccine available, ivermectin helped India tackle the virus spread over the last four months. The American medical establishment may pooh-pooh ivermectin all they want but the treatment helps people infected with coronavirus. India is ramping up vaccine production again so that will help South America and Africa get a handle on the pandemic. The world is moving in the right direction. Parts of Asia and Central and South America remain in covid Hell and Africa is the global hotspot especially southern Africa. Oh-no. Indonesia fears become reality reporting 14.5K daily new cases the highest ever. Indonesians are dying at the fastest pace since January. Bangladesh is in trouble again with 4.6K daily new cases the highest of the new wave occurring. Is this a nastier variant than the India B1617 (delta)? Portugal reports only 756 daily cases yesterday a welcome sight. There is hope that Portugal can roll this current wave over quickly; a few more days of data are needed. The UK reports 10.6K daily new cases remaining elevated but not going parabolic. On 6/17/21, last Thursday, the UK reports 11.0K daily cases so this is a key resistance number. If the UK can remain sub 11K cases, there is hope that the current wave will roll over quickly and not be the horror the medical folks describe. The fear-mongering in the UK and US to encourage vaccinations is going to start sounding very hollow to the public as they see daily cases remaining low or dropping and new wave outbreaks dissipating quickly.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/22/21, at 7:00 AM EST: A story is circulating in right-leaning media such as Fox News and on talk radio that a 12-year old boy dies 3 days after receiving the second vaccination shot. The boy's heart was enlarged with fluid. The incident was reported on the VAERS website that gathers adverse reaction information and data but it references a 15-year old boy. The deaths and other reactions listed on VAERS are not verified but that does not stop both the left and right media from grabbing tidbits they can use to promote their sick political agendas and narratives. Right away, if the incident is reported on VAERS, it does not mean the death is caused by the vaccination. The case would need an investigation. Keystone's friend Mike in high school, many decades ago, the star athlete of the school, tragically and suddenly fell over dead in gym glass. It turned out to be a heart issue so you never know what is happening inside a human body. Nonetheless, the myocarditis issue (the coronavirus spike protein may be preferentially replicating in the heart muscle) is serious. Parents should research the matter before having their low-risk teens and youngsters vaccinated. Talk it over with your doctor to chart the best course forward for your family. CDC Director Walensky appears on ABC television media telling people to get vaccinated. She says the India B1617 variant (delta) will be the dominant strain in the US and the vaccinations are very effective.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/22/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The Whitehouse announces that the July 4th goal of vaccinating 70% of adults with at least one dose will not be achieved. Sleepy Joe throws in the towel on the goals he set on 5/4/21. Back then, the road to the 70% goal seemed like a cake-walk but no one expected the dramatic drop-off in the vaccination rate. The Whitehouse acknowledges that it will take a few more weeks to reach the 70% goal. The Whitehouse says the 30 years old and older population will meet the 70% goal. Biden likes to move those goal posts around. A big Independence Day shindig is planned at the Whitehouse which would have celebrated the 70% goal so they are front-running the situation to make sure the event is a happy gathering. Over 1,000 people will be on the Whitehouse lawn on 7/4/21, only 11 days away. The 18-26 age group is slacking-off from vaccinations in recent days. 1 in 4 young people do not want to be vaccinated and this statistic has remained relatively steady in recent weeks. The Whitehouse is struggling to find ways to encourage young people to take the shot. The vaccination incentives are ending in many states and perhaps will act as a disincentive going forward because now people do not receive any perks if they choose to get vaccinated (medical folks will scream that the vaccination itself should be the incentive since the shot will prevent you from getting seriously ill or dying). Whitehouse spokesman Jeffrey Zients says the goal of fully vaccinating 160 million Americans by July 4th will not occur until mid-July. In other words, Biden is missing both his goals.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 6/22/21, at 4:38 PM EST: Dr Fauci, also humorously known as Doctor Science and Lord Fauci, appears on CNN. Fauci and NIH head Collins have been hanging low in recent days due to the ongoing attention about the Wuhan Lab leak theory. Liberal-friendly CNN does not ask Fauci about the funding for the communist labs, gain of function research or the lab leak. So much for modern-day journalism. Fauci says the goal of vaccinating 70% of Americans with at least one dose will occur in the second or third week of July. Fauci proclaims, "I don't see any big deal (about missing the goal)." That is what loser's say. Fauci stresses that the vaccinations for the 18-26 year old age group needs to increase. He opines about misinformation and disinformation on the internet but does not elaborate on who is this all-knowing power that dictates what is science and what is not science. Fauci jumps onto the India B1617 variant (delta) fear-mongering bandwagon proclaiming that this strain poses the "greatest threat to eliminate COVID-19 in America." Fauci says over 20% of the new US cases are the India variant. Three weeks ago, B1617 was 6% of the tests, the last couple weeks 10% and now 21%. Fauci says the variant is following the path of the UK B117 variant (alpha) with cases doubling about every 2 weeks. The Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against B1617 after two shots but only 34% effective after one shot. 79% of Americans older than 50 years old are vaccinated but only 47% of the 18-26 year age group is vaccinated. Missouri and Colorado are identified as the two states with the biggest outbreaks of the India variant but the daily case numbers are not going exponential in any way. These two states will be monitored as well a the UK to see if the fear of B1617 lives up to the negativity and fear hype, or not.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 6/22/21: A small Israeli study links the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to a rare blood disorder. The study says an auto-immune reaction occurs that causes blood clots. The disorder blocks oxygen-rich blood from reaching the kidneys, heart and brain. The study, however, continues to recommend that people receive the vaccine.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/23/21, at 1:30 AM EST: The US reports 11K daily new cases yesterday and 352 deaths. Recent mental health studies report that one-half of Americans say they lost control of their lives during the pandemic. Many say that late last year and this year has been the lowest point of their lives. Mental and emotional healing will be needed going forward. The talking heads say Missouri and Colorado are big worries since these two states have the most India B1617 variant (delta) cases. Missouri reports 733 daily new cases which is an elevated number compared to the last few days but remains below the 917 cases last Friday. If the cases remain sub 917, Missouri should be fine and expected to improve. Colorado reports 383 daily new cases a low number. The 3-day MA for Colorado daily new cases is printing lower lows and lower highs maintaining the downtrend in cases. Colorado deaths pop to 32 and 24 the last 2 days but this may be a data reporting issue since the deaths were zero for a few days earlier. The Missouri and Colorado data do not show any major worries appearing as yet. Missouri's active cases curve is curling higher which is a concern so it will be watched closely over the coming days.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/23/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The UK crosses the 128K deaths grim milestone. The UK says 86% of the population has antibody protection. This should be herd immunity but since the current wave 4 continues, the 86% number may be bogus. The UK sadly reports 11.6K daily new cases the highest for the current wave. The pundits may be correct with their warnings about the India B1617 variant. 27 Brit's die yesterday the most in 6 weeks. The Yantian port in southern China, where the recent outbreak occurred, is back at regular operations, if you believe the lying communists. China extends its border restrictions with neighboring nations for another year. Italy lifts its outside mask mandates. The world is overcoming the pandemic but many countries will continue needing help and vaccinations for the coming weeks and months. Russia's wave 3 continues with daily new cases remaining elevated. Russia is using snowmobile raffles to encourage vaccinations. Sydney, Australia, imposes mask-wearing on the population to help tamp down an outbreak that is dominated by the India B1617 variant.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/23/21, at 2:30 AM EST: America, the land of the have's and have not's, is now also the land of the vaccinated and unvaccinated. The courts rule in favor of Houston Methodist Hospital that forces all employees to be vaccinated. 153 healthcare workers do not want to take the shot so the hospital fires the employees and the courts uphold the hospital's decision. The 153 healthcare workers say an appeal is already planned. The hospital says if employees do not want vaccinated, they can go somewhere else to work. The divisions in America grow wider daily. Since many of the hospital employees that keep their jobs do not take the shot claiming religious exemptions or due to health reasons, what is the difference in allowing the 153 workers to do their jobs as well? There is no difference. America is also the land of control freaks. Here comes Morgan Stanley telling employees to get vaccinated or they are not allowed in the office. Last week, Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, chief hard-*ss, said if you can go out to dinner in the city, then you can come into the office each day again. Companies are telling employees it is my way or the highway while at the same time complaining about worker shortages. Sit. Heel. Roll over.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/23/21, at 5:30 AM EST: An NIH study of blood samples reports that far more Americans were sick with COVID-19 than estimated. Many of the Americans identified with having antibodies from being infected say they never had so much as a sniffle. The NIH says that coronavirus may have been in the United States earlier than thought. Other studies have indicated the same. China was dealing with outbreak issues as early as the summer of 2019 and the situation got out of control in November 2019 so the virus was likely spreading from Wuhan to the world in late 2019 and early 2020 as the data indicates. China and the US players, such as Fauci and Collins, need to come clean about what was going on at the Wuhan Labs. A Chinese scientist or doctor will likely blow the whistle on the situation at some point. The drip, drip, drip of information about the Wuhan Lab leak continues. China will continue lying because they do not want to be held liable for the pandemic. The communists will lie about the pandemic even if it was an accidental release from one of the Wuhan Labs since it would lead to liability. China owes the world reparations for their dastardly deed and they will pay. A Fox News poll (since it is Fox, you know the numbers will be skewed to support the republican narrative just as a CNN, MSNBC or broadcast television (ABC, CBS, NBC) poll would be skewed to favor the democrat narrative) says 60% of the country believes that the virus was made (messed with) by scientists and released from the Wuhan Labs. Nearly 80% of republicans, about 60% of independents and 41% of democrats agree. It is interesting that 2 in 5 democrats believe the virus leaked from the Wuhan Lab and the numbers keep increasing each week. As the public moves in this direction, lawmakers will have to investigate the matter. Fauci and Collins would be a good starting point since they know where some of the covid bodies are buried. President Biden and the left-leaning media keep downplaying, or ignoring, the Wuhan Lab leak theory which gaining world prominence as the most likely origin of COVID-19.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/23/21: A CDC panel focused on vaccine safety says there is a link between the mRNA vaccines and the heart inflammation problem (myocarditis and pericarditis) but the 1,200 cases identified, mainly young people under 30 years old, are an extremely small number (the cases are extremely rare). The FDA wants to add warnings to the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines but still recommends their use. Officials and big pharma reps repeat the mantra that contracting covid is a bigger risk than getting the shot. The India B1617 variant (delta) fear-mongering continues 24/7 but the vaccination sites see tumbleweeds rolling by and hear crickets in the background. The next few days of data for the UK, Portugal, Sydney (Australia), and the US states of Colorado, Missouri, Louisiana, Alabama and Arkansas, will determine if the India variant lives up to the billing as the nastiest virus this side of the Pecos.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/23/21: Banking giant J P Morgan Chase is following Morgan Stanley's lead wanting all employees to be vaccinated. If you want to work in banking in Manhattan, get down on your knees, and roll up your sleeves. Another study links the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to myocarditis. Some doctors recommend that any young person receiving the shot should limit their physical activity for 3 to 6 months. What?! The selling point to take the vaccine is that life returns to normal and athletes can get on with training and competing but that would be hard to do if you have to limit activity for 3 to 6 months. Many teens and their parents are likely unaware of this recommendation or they ignore it. Despite the linkage of myocarditis with the mRNA vaccines, the condition remains rare so doctors and pundits continue telling young people to shoot-up. There are 323 heart inflammation cases in the US after 320 million shots administered (there are likely many more but these are very small numbers). Thus, a young person has a 0.00000101 chance of the myocarditis occurring typically after the second shot. This is a 0.000101% chance or 1 in 991,000 chance. In simple terms, for every 1 million shots administered, 1 case of myocarditis appears, and some of these cases may be occurring naturally as Keystone mentioned with his high school friend Mike that killed over during gym class from a heart condition many decades ago.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/24/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Another grim milestone occurs with the China Virus killing 3.9 million global citizens. Over 180 million people have been infected with COVID-19 around the world. China will have to come clean about the origin of the Wuhan Flu under future global pressure. For now, the global coronavirus battle continues. The efficacy of the Chinese vaccines, Sinovac and Sinopharm, are in question as infections increase in highly-vaccinated nations and regions such as Mongolia and Chile. Singapore forges ahead with the Chinese vaccines anyway. Chile is considering a third shot, a booster, and letting people choose between another Chinese vaccine or one of the US mRNA vaccines. There is very little data available on mixing vaccines. Wow. This is not good. The UK reports 16.1K daily new cases a big spike higher confirming that the wave 4 outbreak is going parabolic. Over the last few days, the severity of the outbreak was in question. Think of it as two kids playing with sticks using them as playful swords. But today an eye just got poked-out. This is the worst news for the UK since February. Perhaps the spike in cases may be an outlier, that will be known tomorrow, but it does not look good. The majority of cases are the India B1617 variant (delta). The UK is a guide as to what may happen in the US and elsewhere in the weeks and months ahead. Portugal reports 1.5K daily new cases the highest of the current wave 4 outbreak that is underway. Many of the cases are B1617. Indonesia is bludgeoned by COVID19 with 15.3K daily new cases the highest ever as the parabolic spike continues. Oh-no. South Africa Reports 17.5K daily new cases the highest of the current wave 3 that has gone exponential. Nearly 300 South Africans died on Tuesday on par with the deaths in January and early February. Brazil reports 114.1K daily new cases the highest ever. Bolsonaro is not helping his people. Israel daily infections are very small numbers but creeping higher due to the India B1617 variant. Over the last couple days, the concern over the India variant increases and it is justified. The ECDC says 90% of new cases in Europe by the end of the summer will be the India variant. The India B1617 variant may expand in the United States in the Fall. In the Philippines, Dictator Duterte tells people to get the shot or you go to jail.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/24/21, at 8:00 AM EST: As Billy wrote in Hamlet, 'Something is rotten in the state of Denmark'. Several news outlets such as CNN, WSJ, National Review, New York Post and The Hill, report that genetic sequences from early coronavirus cases are deleted from a NIH database. Researcher Jesse Bloom discovered the problem and is recovering information from the cloud to reconstitute some of the samples. The deleted viral gene sequence will help identify the origin of COVID-19 and shed light on the gain of function research occurring. The NIH plays the situation down saying the samples were submitted in March 2020 and removed at the request of the same individual (Chinese communist scientists) in June 2020 and this is standard practice. This is hard to swallow since an once in a century pandemic is occurring in real-time and a fifth-grader would know to keep those important samples protected and stored properly. The dishonesty and nefarious activity will only create more public distrust. Who's sneaking around the NIH laboratories at night? It is a Jeckyll and Hyde mystery. Fauci and Collins got some splainin' to do as Ricky would tell Lucy. The WHO, that lays in bed with the filthy CCP each evening, and spends each day under Dictator Xi's desk, keeps touting the line that the Wuhan Lab leak is the least likely origin of coronavirus. The new situation with Bloom only creates more mystery and intrigue around the origin of coronavirus. Obviously, people are covering things up and the stink emanating from the Wuhan Lab window is overwhelming. China will lie, cheat and steal to prevent responsibility for the COVID-19 pandemic since the communists do not want to pay the world a few trillion in reparations. If the issue is forced, WW III may be at hand since the filthy communists will likely never bow. China should own up to their deed so a multi-decade reparation plan can be put in place for the nations of the world that are crushed by their irresponsibility (CCP leadership).
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 6/24/21, at 4:00 PM EST: US Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg defends the rights of corporations and businesses to implement vaccine passports. President Biden has said the government would not impose vaccine passports but is turning a blind eye to companies imposing vaccine passport policies. The wedges are driven deeper into America's spine; the rich versus the poor, the republican tribe versus the democrat tribe, the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated. Two unvaccinated children test positive for COVID-19 on a Royal Caribbean cruise ship. The family disembarks from the ship in the Bahamas and heads back to Florida. The cruise industry will be given a free pass on this incident since it was two minors that were infected but the ships must remain vigilant. One serious case of COVID-19 on any ship will sink the industry. The vomit cruises (Norovirus) evolve into covid cruises.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 6/24/21, at 5:35 PM EST: President Biden speaks in Raleigh, North Carolina, rallying the country to get vaccinated. Americans are growing tired of the daily vaccination diatribes. Is anyone listening anymore? People are going back to living life. Sleepy Joe alternates between talking loud and whispering softly to emphasize points. The whispering is creepy. On Twitter, the hashtag #CreepyJoe begins trending. The right-leaning media such as Fox News, Newsmax and talk radio continue to hammer away at Biden questioning his cognitive abilities. Turnabout is fair play since the democrat tribe had attacked former President Trump's mental acuity during his term. Both gentlemen are pushing 80 years old so of course they are slower in the head. Biden has the stuttering issue which can be misinterpreted but his brain does go astray when he references the 'Tuskegee Airmen' as a reason many blacks do not want to be vaccinated. He meant to say the 'Tuskegee Experiments' which were the evil syphilis studies performed on unknowing black folks during the 1930's through 1960's. Biden also stumbles through the word 'LatinX' but most people would nowadays. The name Latino's describes men and the collective men and women while Latina is for women. Hispanic is the collective name for men and women but it was shortened into a derogatory slur and is not an attractive word anymore. LatinX was developed as the all encompassing word but it is about three years along and not catching on in the mainstream. Biden pronounced it as lateenex like Kleenex, some say Latin-X, some say la-teenx. It still is easiest to say Latino but the pretty Latina's are short-changed slightly by that moniker. The president talks loudly decreeing, "We lost 600 thousand dead in a year." Biden describes this catastrophic number as more than the casualties in past wars. Biden wants the July 4th parties to celebrate "independence from the virus, the virus." The audience applauds. Biden tells the unvaccinated folks to text their zip code to GETVAX (438829) to find a vaccination site that will be within 5 miles of their home (or VACUNA (822862) for Spanish-speaking folks). Sleepy Joe says Uber and Lyft are offering free rides to the vaccination sites and they will drive you back home. Thousands of pharmacies have extended hours to administer vaccines and most are open 24/7 on Friday's. Biden stresses that tomorrow is Friday so go get your shot. Biden tells Americans to go to the wecandothis.hhs.gov website to learn about vaccines and how you can help get everyone vaccinated. The president emphasizes, "We can do this" and "600 thousand plus Americans have died." Give Biden an A for effort since the government is doing everything it can to convince people to become vaccinated. First Lady Jill Biden and Fauci visit Tennessee on their vaccine promotion tour. Both are wearing masks as they exit the airplane and stand outside which is comical since the reason to get vaccinated is that you do not have to wear a mask anymore. No wonder common people have been confused, which creates angst, throughout the entire pandemic. Jill Biden speaks to the republican-leaning state scolding the audience saying, "Only 3 in 10 Tennesseans are vaccinated." She is booed. People are getting sick of listening to the vaccine shaming that is getting out of hand led by the president, his wife, Fauci and the whole Hee-Haw gang. If people do not want vaccinated, leave them alone. Get over it. The constant news flow denigrating the unvaccinated people drives permanent negative wedges into society. Don't do that dummies. Jill Biden is defiant shouting back at the crowd, "You are booing yourself." Condescending arrogance is never helpful in any situation. Keystone is open to getting vaccinated but Nurse Goodbody continues to not honor his request to receive the shots in his buttock cheeks instead of the arm. She tells him it is the arm or nothing.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/25/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The UK reports 16.7K daily new cases above the prior day's 16.1K daily cases. This is not good. The Brit's fell asleep at the switch. The UK wave 4, mainly consisting of the India B1617 variant, continues with about 20 deaths per day occurring. Darn. Portugal reports 1.6K daily new cases above the prior day's 1.5K cases and its wave 4 continues. Israel reports 205 daily new cases the most since April. The UK, Portugal and Israel are test cases that will verify the level of virulency of the India variant. Ditto Sydney, Australia, that now places 500K residents in lockdown for a week. The China Virus will wreak havoc for months and years to come. Australia was one of the shining examples of successfully handling the virus. The land Down Under reports 30 daily new cases. If the Aussies can nip B1617 in the bud they can perhaps educate other nations on the best way to handle the variant. The EU says by next week 60% of the adults in Europe will have at least one dose of vaccine. However, by the end of the summer, 90% of the cases in Europe are expected to be the India B1617 variant. Spain has to keep its guard up since cases are rising in Portugal. Europeans love the beaches in Portugal and Spain but ogling all the beautiful ladies in their swimsuits may result in a case of covid. Spain's 3-day MA of daily new cases prints a higher high which is not good; the bull-fighting nation may already be in the early stage of a new outbreak. Spain is opening up tourist islands and beaches and relaxing covid restrictions. The timing is not good. Spain may drown in covid-infected waters over the coming month. Spain should be putting on a vigilant face and telling residents and vacationers to stay away from each other. Instead, happy Spaniards gulp wine exclaiming that it is party time. The Ruskies are going to demand answers from Dictator Putin as Russia crosses above 5.4 million total cases and over 132K deaths. Russia reports another record day for the current wave 3 with 20.2K daily new cases; a 20-handle. How's that Sputnik V vaccine working for you, Vlad? Whoa. 568 Russians die from the China Flu yesterday which is starting to test the worst days of the pandemic. Where's Putin? Bueller? Putin? Bueller? Indonesia is under siege reporting 20.6K daily new cases the worst day ever by a big factor. Indonesia hospitals are overrun. The outbreak appears worse than Malaysia's that runs about one month ahead. Malaysia is on the mend but must stay vigilant. Indonesia may reinfect Malaysia. There is going to be a lot of bad news coming out of Indonesia over the next 2 weeks. Good luck to them.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/25/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 13.4K daily new cases. Today should be the highest case day of the week so if the cases remain in check overnight tonight, America will continue to walk the happy path ahead. Checking the states that provide a heads-up into the potential spread of the India B1617 variant (delta), Colorado reports 592 daily new cases hanging in there without any significant problem as yet. The southern states will be the focus this summer. Arkansas requires watching as case numbers rise this week for the start of a potential fourth wave. Hawaii's active cases curve still needs to flatten and roll over which should happen with daily cases decreasing. Hawaii says 60% of the population will be fully vaccinated in a couple weeks. On 7/8/21, vaccinated US citizens can freely move to and from Hawaii without quarantine. Cheap polyester shirts with images of palm trees and pineapples will be back in vogue.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/25/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The CDC reports that 1.2K breakthrough cases (people contracting covid after vaccination) are identified in more than 853K hospitalizations. Of course, the people contracting coronavirus now are the unvaccinated but breakthrough cases are occurring. Dividing 1.2 by 853 is 0.0014 so the incidence of breakthroughs are 0.14% or 1 in every 711 people. Thus, if a hospital is taking care of 700 covid patients, one of them is a breakthrough case, so the vaccinations are doing their job successfully. The data may be somewhat misleading since it addresses only hospitalized patients and not the breakthrough cases that occur with people staying at home to fight the illness after they are vaccinated. The medical community promised vaccines that would stop people from dying of COVID-19 and decrease hospitalizations and they have succeeded.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/25/21, at 7:00 AM EST: The latest fear-pumping topic by the media is the Delta Plus variant. The WHO gave the variant strains Greek names a couple weeks ago thinking that people are such sensitive little babies that they are offended by something as basic as calling coronavirus the China Flu or Wuhan Virus. Don't they have better things to do at WHO? The imbeciles, that comingle with the CCP on red satin sheets, now add 'Plus" to the Greek names. You cannot make the stuff up. Where does this come from? Someone squatting on the can at the WHO had an epiphany proclaiming that the mutations can be called plus, and plus-plus, and triple-plus. They are undecided if a future mutation should then be called triple-plus-plus or quadruple-plus. The WHO has become a caricature of itself. The media is in a tizzy over this new virus du jour, the India B.1.617.2.1 with a spike protein mutation called K417N (the same mutation is in the South Africa B1351 variant (beta)), dubbed Delta Plus; the chronology will call it India B1617 Plus variant. This mutation has been around for at least a couple months or more. India has been studying the mutation and warn of the transmissibility, increased lung issues and potential reduction in monoclonal antibody response. Come on now. Come on now. Countries are fighting vaccine hesitancy and skepticism and the conclusion of the latest study conveniently labels monoclonal antibody treatments as less effective. With such a small sampling of the B1617 Plus, such a conclusion is not possible, and that is why it is referred to as 'potential'. In truth, they do not know. Of course all the strains, variants and mutations are concerning, but a lot of the hype nowadays and fear-mongering always ends with the talking heads telling viewers and listeners to 'get vaccinated'.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 6/25/21: The United States government confirms that the early genomic sequences of coronavirus from the Wuhan Laboratories were removed from the NIH database. The Wuhan Lab leak scandal and the potential US funding of communist bioweapons research in China scandal become more intriguing. New information drips out daily that increases the mystery around the sick events in Wuhan, China, during 2019. The world will discover the truth sooner or later. There is reporting from Yahoo, The Sun, and other outlets that the Chinese Vice Minister of State Security Dong Jingwei has defected to the United States and is in US custody currently. Welcome, Dong, glad you can spill the beans on the Wuhan Lab and other issues. This news story is big and the media outlets are ignoring the excitement. It may uncover a mess for the US but if there is any hope remaining for the country, the truth needs to come out, good and bad, so people can restore confidence and belief in America's fragile crony capitalism system. The Wuhan Lab scandal story is evolving into a thrilling and suspenseful spy novel.
Note Added Friday Evening, 6/25/21, at 8:00 PM EST: The UK and Europe tout a color-coding scheme which lists risks and guidelines for visiting neighboring countries. Humorously, since it is Europe, it is a colour code. The world has not put its best foot forward in handling the coronavirus pandemic over the last 17 months. The information from officials is often contradictory and confusing. The European color code is a mess. The amber color is mentioned often, there is green and orange, too. France is talking about red. You laugh out loud at the silliness of it all but only for an instant because sobriety sets in at the thought of over 3.9 million people dead worldwide from the Wuhan Flu. The CDC released a complex color-coded mask chart a couple months ago that became a laughing stock. The European color system addressing coronavirus travel risk is about to suffer the same fate. In the States, after the 9-11 tragedy, the Department of Homeland Security was formed and former Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Ridge, currently fighting for his life in the hospital after taking a stroke last week, was appointed the first chief of the DHS. The first thing that Ridge implemented was the color-coded system for terrorism alerts. It was a confusing mess. People got the colors mixed-up and their meanings. Then the chart was adjusted with other colors which turned the color-coded chart into a complete mess and farce. The American color-coded terrorist threat system became the butt of comedian's jokes. Saturday Night Live (SNL), the live comedy show that airs late Saturday night into Sunday morning, performed a funny skit making fun of the color system that has been abandoned. Europe this is the potential fate of your color-coded, er colour-coded, travel warning system.
Note Added Friday Evening, 6/25/21, at 9:00 PM EST: The CDC updates information on breakthrough cases (contracting coronavirus after the double vaccination). The breakthrough cases jump by a factor of four. 4,115 people have been hospitalized and 750 of this group have died after receiving both vaccine shots. The CDC says 142 deaths are asymptomatic or unrelated to the China Flu. 1,000 of the hospitalizations are asymptomatic or unrelated to the virus. 3 in 4 of the breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalizations and deaths are older folks 65 years old and up. The breakthrough numbers remain small compared to the overall vaccines administered.
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