By K E Stone (Keystone)
Maskless Americans are embracing social life again after 15
long months of coronavirus (COVID-19) misery. The US continues defeating covid as
the charts indicate. Most US chain stores such as Walmart, Starbucks, Target,
CVS, Costco and many others have removed the mask rule signs off the windows
and are offering a maskless shopping experience not seen since early 2020.
America feels like it is getting back to normal and that vibe is felt across
the population.
Some stores are requiring clerks to continue wearing masks.
Unvaccinated people are wise to keep wearing masks as the CDC guidelines
suggest. Many people inside US stores continue wearing masks despite the
relaxed guidelines. It takes a little time to train humans then it takes some
time to untrain them. The big test is outdoor events (concerts, sporting
events, rallies, community festivals) because that is the biggest mix of masked
and unmasked people and many unvaccinated people will not be wearing masks.
The Whitehouse brags about achieving two important
milestones yesterday. As per the CDC COVID Tracker, 50% of the US adult (over18 years old) population is fully-vaccinated and 50% (49.5%) of the totalpopulation has received at least one dose. The combination of vaccines and
natural antibodies marches the United States toward herd immunity and sends the
case counts dramatically lower.
Interestingly, there are stores where less than one-half of
the customers are wearing masks so it tells you that there are unvaccinated
folks walking around without masks (the unvaccinated need to remain cautious;
the Whitehouse is telling these folks to ‘get vaccinated’). The next couple
weeks will indicate whether a bump higher occurs in daily new cases due to
America’s newfound freedom. If not, it is truly shaping up to be a fantastic
summer in the States.
President Biden has proclaimed that he wants ‘70% of the US
adult (over 18) population vaccinated with at least one dose by 7/4/21’ which
is 40 days away. The CDC COVID Tracker reports that 62% (61.6%) of the adults
are currently vaccinated with at least one dose so Biden needs another 8% to
achieve his goal. Are you ready to get mathy? No worries, it is simple math.
The CDC data reports 159 million American adults (over 18)have been vaccinated with one dose which is equated to the 61.6% percentage.
Thus, the CDC data is based on 258 million Americans that are over 18 years old
(divide 159 million by 0.616). There are 330 million US citizens so 78% of the
population is over 18 years old (258/330) and 22% of the population is younger
than 18.
If there are 258 million adults (over 18) in America,
Biden’s 70% one-dose vaccination goal is 181 million people (258x0.7). The data
says 159 million adults are vaccinated with at least one shot thus, 22 million
more adults (over 18) need to roll up their sleeves so Sleepy Joe can puff his
chest out and proclaim victory.
If you click the ‘Vaccination Trends’ tab in the left marginof the CDC COVID Tracking site, the daily vaccination rate chart is provided.Based on the 7-day average, America is vaccinating at a rate of 1.65 milliondoses per day. The US peaked at 3.4 million doses per day on average in early
April and has decreased ever since; in fact cut in half. The vaccination rate
is moving sideways at 1.5 to 1.7 million doses per day for the last 2 weeks so
it is good news that it is not dropping lower.
At 1.7 million doses per day rate, and 40 days until
Independence Day, 68 million more people will receive a dose. If about 80% are
adults (the 12 to 18 year olds have accounted for about 25% of the vaccinations
over the last couple weeks helping to stabilize the vaccination rate), about 54
million more adults will be vaccinated by the 7/4/21 goal, and adding the
current 159 million to that is 213 million adults vaccinated by July 4th. This
is an 83% vaccination rate for adults far beyond Sleepy Joe’s 70% goal. It is a
blow-out and easy to attain goal but Biden is the consummate politician that
under estimates so he can claim over achievement.
Since 22 million more adults require vaccination to reach
the Biden goal, and the current dosage rate is at 1.7 million per day, that
will take only 13 days, 2 weeks, to get there (22/1.7). Some of the shots will
be for children so add a few more days and Biden should reach his goal of 70%
of the US adult population vaccinated with at least one dose by the second week
of June far ahead of the Independence Day goal. Joe will easily walk over that
low bar in his orthopedic shoes.
Since 22 million more adults need vaccinated to reach the
president’s goal, and there are 40 more days to attain the target, the
vaccination dose rate could drop to 0.6 million doses per day (22/40) during the
next month and Biden would still achieve his goal. There will be children
vaccinated during this time period so bump up the 22 million to 28 million
(22/0.8) for the total population that needs vaccinated during this goal period
and that would be a 0.7 million doses per day vaccination rate; same dealio.
The vaccination rate can fall from its current 1.7 million doses per day down
to the 0.6-0.7 range and President Biden would still reach his goal of
vaccinating 70% of adults with at least one dose by July 4th.
Now that you know the actual math, you can properly assess
media’s news coverage of this goal. The democrat and liberal-leaning media,
such as CNN and MSNBC, will cheerlead the president no matter what he does and
the 70% goal will be cheered and pumped-up as a major accomplishment every step
of the way. The math above will provide you with laughs as you listen to the
talking heads pontificate. At the same time, the republican and
conservative-leaning media, such as Fox News and Newsmax, will denigrate Biden
daily and label the 70% goal as political theater.
Five states are offering lotteries, cash prizes and
scholarships to coax people to become vaccinated. Ohio’s first vaccination
lottery drawing, Vax-a-Million, is this evening. Ohio experiences a huge 45%
increase in vaccinations under the new program. Money talks and bull sh*t
walks. Here is the kicker. Ohio says a 94% increase in vaccinations occurs for
the 16 and 17 year olds. Wow. Folks under 18 are not allowed to play the
lottery but will be given full scholarships to an Ohio university. Obviously,
Mom and Dad are telling Junior and Sis to go for it since they may get lucky.
New York, Maryland, Kentucky and Oregon are also offering
lottery-style prizes. More states may follow after studying Ohio’s very
successful results. Keeping people out of the hospital is a huge money-savings
for a state and it makes the money for the lottery not seem that important,
especially when the vaccination scheme is working.
US hospitalizations trend lower the CDC indicates a 7-dayaverage now below the September lows. Hospital admissions also trend lower. Click the 'Health Care Settings' tab in the left margin to access hospitalization charts.
UPMC Pittsburgh healthcare system announces an expansion of
the eligibility for monoclonal antibodies treatment. The changes are also
occurring elsewhere. The FDA has provided emergency approval under limited use
for the one-time IV (intravenous) treatment but those restrictions are now
lifted and overweight folks, smokers, diabetics, people with heart ailments,
pregnant women and others are now eligible to receive the treatment.
Monoclonal antibodies treatments such as bamlanivimab and
etesevimab are proteins manufactured in a laboratory environment that fight off
viruses and pathogens by preventing the spike protein from attaching to human
cells. Former President Trump was given the treatment when he became ill before
the election last year after he bragged that covid was no big deal. The virus
brought Donnie to his knees.
The monoclonal antibodies treatments are abundantly
available now and very useful in reducing hospitalizations and deaths
especially if administered early on in the infection process. Once sick,
placing more antibodies in your body faster will save your arse. The treatment
saved King Donnie’s butt. Upon the new rules by the FDA, the use of monoclonal
antibodies treatment at hospitals immediately pops 30%. Doctors were champing
at the bit to use this life-saving treatment on a larger pool of patients and
waste no time in saving lives.
This news is extremely good news for those that choose to
remain unvaccinated because if you become sick, the monoclonal antibodies will
be your go-to savior only you need to see your doctor quickly and make sure to
ask for the treatment if your doctor is clueless. The medical bigwigs and
coronavirus television pundits cringe at hearing the monoclonal antibodies discussed
this way since they want people to keep getting vaccinated. Thus, you will
likely not hear much about this fantastic great news that expands the
monoclonal antibodies treatments to everyone, not just rich folks.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above with wave four defeated.
The 7-day MA trend line, which smooths-out the data, keeps moving lower which
is a fantastic sight. Individual daily new cases are remaining consistently
below the 7-day MA which reinforces the trend lower and Sunday’s 17.4K daily
new cases was the lowest daily number going back to the start of the pandemic.
The 7-day trend line is below last September’s lows and now challenges last
summer’s lows heading lower. It is a happy sight, as long as it continues.
The US daily active cases chart is shown above. The current
blue path is in progress which will form the bell curve and say goodbye to
covid. The bell shape has a dent in the top due to the wave 4 scare. The
variants are held in check in the US currently but ongoing vigilance is
required especially against the UK B117 (most prevalent in the US due to the
Michigan outbreak), India B1617 and New York B1526 variants. The US active
cases curve is expected to start dropping off at a much steeper rate which will
bolster confidence that the virus is being defeated.
California’s active cases chart is shown above because it
has a huge bearing on the US active cases chart. As California goes, so goes
the US. In perhaps the best news of the week that no one knows about since they
are not chartists or mathematicians, is the California active cases chart
finally rolling over albeit by a hair. California active cases are running at
1.695 million per day and it dipped to 1.694 million per day. The curve will
remain flat for a few days forward but with a downward bias now occurring, the
California curve would be expected to drop off and this action will help send
the US active cases curve sharply lower.
India’s active cases chart is shown above with a textbook
bell curve in play. India is defeating the virus but a lot of suffering will
continue due to the horrific magnitude of the tragedy. Mental and emotional
suffering will plague the survivors for years to come. All you can do is hang
in there and take things one day at a time.
Over 311K Indians are dead from COVID-19 but the real
numbers are 2 to 5 times higher (600K to 1.6 million). They ride the vimana to
paradise. The bell curve signals that better times are ahead for India although
Cyclone Yaas is now bashing India and Bangladesh causing the evacuation of over
2 million people.
Paraguay’s daily new cases chart is shown above with both
5/22/21 and 5/25/21, yesterday, reporting over 3.2K cases the highest ever. The
Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Chile region remains a global hotspot. Brazil
remains in sick shape with elevated daily cases continuing for several months.
South Africa’s daily new cases chart is shown above and wave
3 is clearly underway. The nasty B1351 variant wreaked havoc in South Africa to
begin the year. The 7-day MA is pointing higher. Hopefully, it will fade away
quickly but that is typically wishful thinking. Keystone has warned about wave
3 starting in South Africa for a couple weeks but everyone sits around picking
their noses. The WHO is clueless. This week a realization of wave 3 will likely
take hold and the South Africa government will begin imposing restrictions.
Japan’s active cases curve is shown above and the island
nation is under harsh criticism for forging ahead with the Olympics beginning
late July and running, literally, into early August. Japan’s active cases are
forming the coveted bell shape and signaling that the virus is being defeated.
The Olympics should be a go since the outbreak is subsiding and on the
downside. If the naysayers and detractors against the Olympics simply give it a
few more days they too will see that conditions are improving.
The US screwed Japan on Friday by imposing a Level 4 travel
warning cautioning Americans to not visit Japan. Right when Japan is starting
to ramp-up excitement for the Games, Uncle Sam has Prime Minister Yoshihide
Suga bent over the concession stand. America is concerned that only 2% of the
Japanese population is vaccinated. Japan fell down on the job because a massive
vaccination program was needed if they wanted to hold the Olympics. Now they
are scrambling but the path forward for Japan and the Olympics looks promising.
Japan will need to remain focused.
Taiwan’s daily new cases spike wildly higher but the 7-day
MA has peaked and rolled over. Taiwan may be getting a handle on the outbreak
but will need to double-down on its efforts to make sure. No one wants to see
Taiwan fail. If the outbreak increases on the island, China will have an excuse
to invade Taiwan and assume control in a soft military takeover that is carried
out under the guise of a humanitarian effort to help with the pandemic. The
filthy CCP used this playbook to takeover Hong Kong which is now just another
dirtbag communist city.
The world is rooting for Taiwan so hopefully the trend lower
in daily cases, and then in the active cases chart, will continue. The USA
recognizes China’s 'one country, two systems' policy rule for Taiwan but the world sees
what happened with the same policy in Hong Kong. The filthy Chinese communists
took the city over so plainly the mainland will look for the earliest
opportunity to pull Taiwan under its direct control as well. Never trust a
filthy lying communist. This future action may begin World War III depending on
the West’s resolve to support and defend Taiwan.
Malaysia’s daily new cases chart is shown above as the
country struggles with containing the wave 4 outbreak. Yesterday, 5/25/21,
Malaysia reports 7.3K daily new cases the highest ever. Malaysia’s active cases
curve has gone parabolic (straight vertical) so it will take at least a couple
weeks to curl back over to the downside.
COVID-19 is spanking Southeast Asia hard including India,
Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, Cambodia,
Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia. Not one country is spared as coronavirus barrels
through these nations like a bowling ball rolling along toppling pins.
For the United States, the Institute for Health Metrics andEvaluation (IHME) forecasts 925K American deaths to date. This number is far
above the Worldometer data at 605K and Johns-Hopkins data at 591K dead. The
IHME is expecting the death rate to level off from here drifting slightly
higher by 10K to 30K into September into the 935K to 955K area. The IHME
obviously believes that the ‘official’ death data is undercounted and the US
death numbers final tally will be higher by a factor of 1.5.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 34 million. India is over 27 million total virus cases. The
order of nations with the most total cases has not changed over the last month
or two. The third highest total cases are Brazil at 16.2 million cases and then
France at 5.6 million and Turkey at 5.2 million total coronavirus cases.
Coronavirus has infected 169 million people worldwide. 3.5
million people have died. Fortunately, 150 million global citizens have
recovered from the China Flu. 89% (150/169) of the people that become infected
with COVID-19 recover in a reasonable time frame a 2 percentage-point
improvement over the last 10 days which itself was an improvement over the
previous couple weeks. The numbers have steadily improved in recent weeks
perhaps because more young people are getting sick but they recover faster.
Worldwide, 2.1% (3.5/169) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many weeks. 1 in every 48
people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this
number is relatively steady. Generally speaking, for the world, the mortality
rate from covid is at an impasse and cannot be driven lower. This number
flatlines at 2.1% for week after week month after month. It will be a great day
if it ever slips away.
2.2% (169/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 45 people on earth. The
China Flu has negatively impacted everyone on earth.
In the United States, 34 million people are infected with
covid. 605,208 Americans are dead from covid. 27.6 million Americans have
recovered from covid. This equates to 81% (27.6/34.0) of US citizens recovering
after becoming infected with COVID-19. The number increases by 3
percentage-points over the last 3 weeks after spending several weeks flat. As
stated above, more young people are becoming sick and likely recovering faster
giving the recovery numbers a slight boost.
4 out of every 5 Americans that become sick with covid will
recover without lingering effects. 1 in 5 will not and many of these folks are
living the obese lifestyle. Others that do not recover are left with the
long-covid syndrome of fatigue, shortness of breath, brain fog, continued loss
of smell and general aches and pains. It is surprising that some young people,
such as Whitehouse spokesman Andy Slavitt’s teenage son, are dealing with
long-covid symptoms.
Keep the immune system healthy with vitamins A, C and D-3.
In addition, zinc, selenium and turmeric will provide a power boost to the
immune system. Medical studies are underway documenting the effectiveness of
various supplements in the treatment of coronavirus. Always check with doc
before beginning a vitamin and supplement program but she/he will say go for
it. Keystone follows this regimen daily over the last year to keep the immune
system 110%. Every American would be wise to take turmeric every day for the
remainder of their lives.
In the US, 1.8% (605/34000) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week but the vaccines are supposed
to reduce deaths. It is amazing how this number will not budge month after
month. And it is amazing that this statement has to be repeated article after
article. What gives? It will be a big deal when the 1.8% does drop but when
will that happen? Alas, another article and it still does not budge.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is hitting
its stride. The death rate is at 2.1% globally which is higher than the US
reflecting the lower vaccination rates, less hospitals and less medical folks
to work at the facilities. And, also, of course, more people will die in poorer
nations than wealthier nations.
10.3% (34/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. This percentage keeps moving higher
albeit at small increments. 1 in every 10 Americans (1 in 9.7 to be exact) have
been stricken with coronavirus. The minority communities are impacted disproportionately.
The CDC says as many as 100 million Americans may have been
exposed to covid. These natural immunities are helping, along with vaccinations,
to kick in the herd immunity. The 100 million number equates to 1 in 3
Americans being stricken with covid (most are asymptomatic), as opposed to the
1 in 10 explained above, which is helping with the herd immunity goal going
forward.
The United States has 20% (34/169) of the COVID-19 cases in
the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program is making a difference. This percentage
was 22% three weeks ago so the drop is great news for the US but sadly, bad
news for other nations since their infection numbers are higher for them.
The US accounts for 17.3% (605/3500) of the China Flu deaths
in the world down a half percentage point over the last 10 days after dropping
a half percentage-point the 10 days before that. The trend is clearly lower. 1
in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are Americans. Three weeks
ago, it was 1 in 5. The numbers are going in the right direction for the US but
that means proportionally more people are dying elsewhere such as India, Nepal,
Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, etc...
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. This chart behavior
represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare
workers. Once the bell curve forms with cases dropping dramatically, the virus
will be defeated, and healthcare workers can breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart. However, several of these nations are dealing with nasty new outbreaks
and waves so no country is ever safe from the virus until it is eradicated
everywhere, or burns itself out.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last three months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes
compress slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a
couple days can be shaved off the current target dates. The Keystone Model will
not change since it needs to be consistent the whole way through the pandemic
in its approach.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines. The India and
Japan charts above show textbook bell-shaped curves.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Flu story forward. The information in the Coronavirus Chronology articles
is vital to understanding the progress of the pandemic and knowing where the
hotspots exist. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be
referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire
pandemic in real-time.
The Keystone Model helps countries and states identify when
their troubles will peak and subside, like India and Japan right now, and warns
when new waves are beginning or worsening, like South Africa, Paraguay and
Bolivia, right now. Keystone was first to warn, and explain, how a wave 4 had
started in the United States and also the first to identify the end of the
outbreak (reference Articles 41 and 42).
The Coronavirus Chronology will be published in the future
by Amazon and distributed internationally. This is Article 43 in the
Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This forty-third article is published on Wednesday, 5/26/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward.
All 43 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon
called the Coronavirus Chronology. The articles are a pandemic bible. The
COVID-19 pandemic information and daily zeitgeist is recorded in real-time
which is priceless for those studying the pandemic in future months, years and
decades. You will understand the nuances of the pandemic and especially the
social behavior. As a writer, it is wonderful to think that 50 years from now a
soul will read the chronology and understand the couple-year hardship in depth
from many different perspectives.
The last couple of articles are linked below if you want to review
or come up to speed with the COVID-19 saga over the last month.
The forty-first article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)Chronology Article 41 Published 5/4/21; US 4th Wave in Rearview Mirror; Americais Defeating Coronavirus; US Reports Least Daily New Cases Since Last Summer;US Total China Flu Cases Exceed 33 Million with Over 591K Deaths; USVaccination Rate Drops Below 2.4 Million Doses Per Day; Worst US States IncludeMississippi, Wyoming, Missouri, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico,Hawaii, Louisiana, the Carolina’s, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Maine; HerdImmunity Math Explained Simply; Global Total COVID-19 Cases Exceed 154 Millionwith Over 3.2 Million Deaths; World Mourns India Tragedy; India Exceeds 20Million Total Infections Only 2nd to US; Worst Global Covid Hot Zones IncludeEgypt, Japan, Netherlands, Cambodia, Laos, India, Bhutan, Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Honduras, South Korea and Pakistan; Vaccine Shaming;America’s Vaccination Rate Slips to 2 Million Doses Per Day; US Reports LeastDaily Deaths in a Year; FDA Authorizes Emergency Approval for Pfizer/BioNTechVaccine for 12-15 Year Olds; CDC Relaxes Mask Guidelines (THIS ARTICLE WAS
SENSORED AND DELETED OFF THE INTERNET BY GOOGLE AND THE BLOGGER PLATFORM (AND
LIKELY THE US GOVERNMENT; WHITEHOUSE)) (UPDATE 5/26/21; ARTICLE 41 WAS REPOSTED
BY KEYSTONE SINCE HE DOES NOT GIVE A SH*T AND WAS NOT DELETED A SECOND TIME;
ALL THE ARTICLES IN THE CORONAVIRUS CHRONOLOGY HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT COVID-19
LIKELY ORIGINATED FROM THE WUHAN LAB; THIS WAS LIKELY THE REASON FOR GOOGLE ET
AL TO BEGIN BANNING THE CHRONOLOGY BUT THE WORLD IS NOW ACCEPTING THAT THE
VIRUS MOST LIKELY DID ORIGINATE FROM THE WUHAN, CHINA, LABORATORIES)
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days.
The Worldometer data is far superior to the CDC and J-H data
for forecasting since it is updated more reliably in real-time and offers an
easy to use format. For gosh sakes, the J-H death number for the US is at 591K well
short of the 600K grim milestone with the Worldometer death count up at 605K
plus. Inquiring minds want to know if the J-H number is purposely being subdued
to avoid the 600K grim milestone? 400K dead American bodies are on Trump’s
hands. 205K American deaths are on Biden’s watch thus far.
The worst countries with rising or flat active cases charts
are highlighted below. The peaks in daily new cases are shown and the projected
peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model. The peak and flattening
of the active cases curve represents the maximum stress on healthcare workers. The
pandemic is not under control until the active cases curve flattens and rolls
over forming the bell shape. India and Japan are displaying bell curves on the
active cases charts so they are on the mend and removed from the bad list below.
The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the
list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases
occurring in real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to
roll over.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreak waves in progress;
Peru (Fourth Wave) (data is jumpy
and scattershot and problematic)
4/15/21 New Case Peak Date
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart spikes higher)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
5/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of fourth wave)
5/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to flatten out and roll over)
5/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of fourth wave)
6/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to peak and flatten)
5/17/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever; huge spike higher)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 5/17 and 5/19/21)
5/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/19/21 New Case Peak Date
6/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
5/19/21 New Case Peak Date
5/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/20/21 New Case Peak Date
5/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/21/21 New Case Peak Date
6/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/21/21 New Case Peak Date
6/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/21/21 New Case Peak Date
6/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/21/21
New Case Peak Date
6/1/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
5/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever; huge spike higher)
6/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/22/21 New Case Peak Date
6/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/22/21 New Case Peak Date
6/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/22/21 New Case Peak Date
6/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/23/21 New Case Peak Date
6/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
6/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 5/23 and 5/25/21)
6/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
6/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest daily cases ever; huge spike higher)
5/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
6/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
6/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
South Korea is having trouble at containing the latest outbreak and it was one of the stalwart countries that initially did well last year in tamping down the pandemic. Cambodia has turned its active cases chart lower but the daily cases are starting to ramp higher for another potential wave. Vietnam is one of the worst countries on earth right now. Laos is bad but rolled its active cases chart over to the downside (good). Malaysia remains in terrible shape and the outbreak may be filtering in to Indonesia which may end up on the bad list above in the next article.
India faces a long recovery ahead but its active cases chart
has rolled over and the virus is on its way to being defeated. India’s
neighbor, Bangladesh, was quick to impose a lockdown that tamped the virus down
quickly in April as India worsened. However, daily cases are rising again in
Bangladesh and it may end up on the bad list above next time. Coronavirus is
highly contagious and difficult to eradicate. It is like a booger on your
finger. No matter how hard you wave your hand or flick your finger, it will not
fly off.
Egypt is not doing well and having difficulty at controlling
the ongoing outbreak. Saudi Arabia joins the misery with a new wave 4
beginning. Bahrain is in bad shape with daily cases spiking to record highs. Jordan
is seeing an uptick in cases and may be added to the bad list above next time. The
UAE is in a tricky spot too and must remain vigilant against the virus. Cases
remain elevated in Kuwait.
The southwestern side of Africa is hit with an outbreak
smacking Angola, Namibia and South Africa.
Keep an eye on Portugal since Brit’s are flocking there as
travel restrictions are eased. Vacationers are frolicking on the beaches
watching the beautiful bikinis. Portugal may see a rise in daily cases and must
be monitored closely over the next 2 weeks.
Argentina struggles and is part of that terrible hotspot in
central South America. Paraguay and Bolivia are smacked hard. Peru remains
challenged. Chile is in this mix and Brazil continues to struggle so they are
added back on to the bad list above due to their failures to tamp down covid.
Columbia prints record daily cases so conditions are
deteriorating in northern South America. Venezuela has been reporting elevated
daily new cases for the last 2 months. Panama is likely beginning a new wave
and will be added to the list above next time. Honduras keeps battling covid
and El Salvador as well.
Russia remains under duress with daily new cases, active
cases and deaths charts all moving sideways at elevated levels for 3 months. Belarus
is having trouble handling the pandemic with high case counts remaining in
play. A few days ago, Belarus forced the downing of a commercial airplane to arrest a
journalist on board creating a major international incident. Dictator Lukashenko, who clings to power with the help of Dictator Putin, commits a state-sponsored act of airline terrorism. How will the West respond? It better be harsh or other rogue nations will do the same.
The UK is concerned about a new outbreak but currently is
holding the virus in check. Mexico remains challenged with its active cases
curve lining out sideways like California’s chart shown above. Dominican
Republic is seeing a rise in daily cases.
Here are the five major global hotspots shown on the chart above; Southeast Asia including India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, the Middle East Including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, Southwestern Africa from Angola to South Africa, Central South America including Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina and Chile, and Central America including El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama and Columbia. Interestingly, the five global hotspots are, for the most part, in the southern hemisphere. The northern hemisphere nations have robust vaccination programs in play.
Coronavirus continues wreaking havoc around the world which
should cause Americans to appreciate their good fortune and now think of
others, but that was the old days. Most people are too narcissistic nowadays to
care about their fellow man. The five big hotspots verifies that the virus remains
in play on planet earth. North America, sans Mexico, and Europe and western
Asia, are enjoying success in defeating the virus.
Next focusing on the US, the 13 remaining troubled states
are highlighted in the list below with their projections on when the active
cases curve will peak, flatten-out and roll over (max strain on healthcare
system) as per the Keystone Model. The states below have flat or rising active
cases curves. The worst states are at the bottom since their daily new cases
are higher in recent days and it will take longer for the active cases charts
to roll over to form the bell shape.
Kentucky (Continuous Wave) (data
is problematic; daily new cases are likely underreported)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart finally flat and rolling over but give it a few days)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat; it needs to roll over)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
4/29/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the fourth wave)
5/27/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is flat; it needs to roll over)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave)
6/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/18/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for the fourth wave)
6/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/20/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave)
6/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
6/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/25/21 New Case Peak Date
6/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
The southern states are a major focus ahead since it is the least-vaccinated region of the country. At the same time, the sweltering summer heat is upon the southern states and the humidity chases folks inside where they cough and breathe on each other. A southern lawyer pulls a handkerchief from his top suit pocket wiping the sweat from his red forehead. Louisiana is at the bottom of the heap this week and requires close watching. Ditto Mississippi. Alabama and Arkansas are also on the watch list going forward.
Oregon is taken off the bad list as its active cases chart
rolls over to the downside. Washington state, however, Oregon’s northern
neighbor, remains on the bad list. The two states are likely hit with a lot of
infections due to the backup and congestion of ships at the ports. Local
protests may also be playing a roll.
Hawaii remains in terrible shape despite being a highly
vaccinated state. Nebraska data is sloppy so something may be going on there.
Washington, DC, not a state, continues wrestling the virus trying to bring it
under control.
The 13 states above need their active cases curves to roll
over. A couple of them or so may be data issues. The double-whammy threat of a
low vaccination rate with people flocking indoors to beat the heat may sink the
southern states this summer. The northeastern states that lean democrat all
dutifully became vaccinated with the highest rates of all states so it is odd
to see Maine continuing to struggle at rolling over its active cases curve.
America is in great shape. People are socializing again with
or without masks saying, “We’re on our way back,” and euphorically yelling, “it’s
(the virus) over.” Employers continue complaining that they do not have enough
workers to meet demand. The enhanced unemployment benefits are ending over the
next couple months so folks will slowly return to jobs.
Almost two dozen republican states end the supplemental
unemployment insurance as a means to force people back to work. The employees
in those states will not forget that and screwing workers usually ends up in a
tit for tat where the good employee now becomes an unhappy disgruntled employee
and others forced to return will perform sabotage to get back at the employer
(even though the state forces them back to work).
Most managers are lousy at handling people and when they
treat a person like a robot or a piece of sh*t, do not be surprised if it does
not work out for the company in the long run. The supplemental compensation
should have never been offered but once it was it should not have been taken
away. People never forget someone that screws them out of money.
The Memorial Day weekend is upon us. It interesting that one
year ago former President Trump blew it. If you recall, Americans became
stir-crazy during the lockdown and were champing at the bit to get out and
about again. All the United States had to do is provide leadership and tell Americans
to stay the course and remain in lockdown for only another couple weeks through
Memorial Day. If this path would have been chosen, the US active cases curve
would have likely curled lower forming the bell shape early on in the pandemic
(during June), like many other nations., and the summer and year would have
played out far better for the United States.
Instead, King Donnie, in denial about coronavirus, and by
his own admission lying to the American people about the severity of the virus because
he was protecting them (no he was not; he withheld information American
families needed to prepare themselves for the pandemic; he was only trying to
protect his reelection hopes), opened the floodgates. Trump decreed why bother
waiting any longer? He told folks to party on for Memorial Day last year.
That Trump decision was a fatal error in judgement and instead
of enjoying daily cases trailing to zero like the majority of other countries
around the world during the summer, the US was in wave 2 in June with daily
infections ramping higher and the sick path ahead to the present was cast in
stone. That lack of leadership at a critical juncture early on in the pandemic
was a Trump failure.
Well, it is Memorial Day again and we are all one year older
and wiser. Many folks will likely play it safe this weekend by continuing to socially
distance and unvaccinated people would be smart to keep wearing masks.
CDC Director Walensky cautions Americans about the upcoming
holiday weekend. She says, “If you are not vaccinated, our guidance has not
changed for you,” and “you still need to mask and take other precautions,” and
“you remain at risk of infection.” Walensky throws the book at the unvaccinated
trying to nudge them towards a vaccination site but they do not hear the
message since the weekend parties have already started and the bands are
playing loudly.
The republicans are targeting Dr Fauci’s potential involvement in providing funding for the Wuhan Laboratory years ago. The republican lawmakers call for Fauci’s resignation and a complete investigation into the matter. Former President Trump's trade adviser, Peter Navarro, who wrote a book on how China screws America, says Fauci will be gone in the next 90 days. Navarro decrees, "Tony Fauci is the father of the virus." He says the doctor is a "sociopath" and proclaims, "It (the virus) came from that lab."
Navarro has vocalized the same anti-Fauci rhetoric previously. The doctor says Navarro's claims are "bazaar." Fauci enjoys popularity in the US and is a trusted figure. He has the aw-shucks personality down pat. Fauci is perceived as the friendly old uncle always quick with a kind word or a warm smile. Should he be? There are skeletons in the Wuhan Lab closet.
The Wuhan Lab and Fauci story heats up on news that President Biden had stopped a State Department investigation exploring the origins of the virus. The Whitehouse is on the back foot trying to explain why that investigation was halted. Sleepy Joe is on defense and begins touting a different investigation into the origin of the virus. What was wrong with the ongoing investigation? The story will likely become a lot dirtier over time.
America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes. The corrupt political parties have not worked together since former President Obama was in office. Obama started the garbage with executive orders where a president does not bother doing the hard work of pushing an agenda through Congress, no, screw that old quant idea. Presidents now rule as kings and decree legislation through executive orders. However, these orders are only as good as the president that is currently in office.
Trump was elected and reversed all of Obama's executive orders. King Trump then decreed his executive orders. Now King Biden is in power and he reversed all of Trump's executive order proclamations. The next president will likely reverse Biden's executive orders. This is not the way to run a nation and the Founding Fathers did not intend it to be this way, or end this way, but it is what it is.
President Biden says an investigation continues into the origins of COVID-19 and claims that coronavirus originated either through an infected animal (bat) or from a laboratory accident. He is batty about the bat theory. Those mammals live in deep caves hundreds of miles from the site of the Wuhan infections.
US money likely went to fund gain of function research in a communist laboratory. Fauci, and perhaps NIH Director Collins, and others, likely know where the virus bodies are buried. Collins is asked about the origin of coronavirus and proclaims that it was "most likely a natural process" that caused the outbreak. Collins was nervous as Hell when he stumbled through the response. Comically, he would have flunked a lie detector test. Collins throws an obligatory bone to the Wuhan Lab theory saying it is "possible." Fauci and Collins are likely meeting clandestinely in a Washington, DC, parking garage right now planning how to keep their stories straight.
The powerful people in America will probably cover-up the situation to avoid embarrassment. Such is the corrupt crony capitalism system. Powerful Americans and corporations have become far too cozy with communist China over the last few decades and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/27/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 606,179 Americans dead from COVID-19 with over 600 perishing yesterday. The US reports 23.5K daily new cases for yesterday and the downtrend remains. The 3-day MA for daily new cases is coming back up for another peak and it must make another lower high to maintain the downtrend. California crosses the 63K deaths grim milestone. It is important for California's active cases chart to roll over lower since it has a big influence on the US active cases chart (see charts above). Oh-no. Bolivia reports 3.2K daily new cases yesterday the highest ever and 100 people die. Bolivia needs help. Ditto Paraguay that also reports record high daily cases yesterday. The central South America outbreak is nasty. Are there new variants at play? Panama is beginning a new wave. Honduras remains in trouble. Oh-no. Colombia reports 23.5K daily new cases the highest number ever. Central America and the top of South America are in bigtime trouble just like central South America (see the global hotspot map above).
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/27/21, at 9:00 AM EST: The good news concerning monoclonal antibodies keeps coming. Sotrovimab, an antibody drug developed by Vir Biotechnology and GlaxoSmithKline, receives FDA approval for emergency use joining the therapies offered by Regeneron Pharma and Eli Lilly. In the stock market this morning, VIR pops +6%. The CDC will allow cruise ships to begin sailing again after companies carry out successful test cruises over the last month. Cruise line stocks such as Norwegian (NLCH) and Carnival (CCL) gain about +4% over the last couple days. Facebook reverses its multi-month policy of removing posts that claimed the coronavirus originated from the Wuhan Lab. These posts are now allowed. Zuck screwed up bigtime; he lays in bed with the Chinese. Many publications and posts have been banned, deleted, removed and shadow-banned from the internet, including the Coronavirus Chronology articles, and the writer's placed on the low-end of the algorithm food chain, but it is always better to be on the correct side of history.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/27/21, at 10:00 AM EST: Eli Lilly is served with a DOJ subpoena concerning the New Jersey plant that is making the antibody drug, bamlanivimab. It does not sound like anything real serious; the matter mainly involves record-keeping. The antibody treatments end in 'mab' which stands for 'monoclonal antibodies'. The polyclonal antibody mixtures use the 'pab' suffix. The Regeneron antibody treatment (casirivimab and imdevimab) was instrumental, and perhaps the main key, in saving former President Trump's life when he took seriously ill with COVID-19 last year. The anti-mask macho Trumpian Whitehouse was an infected covid nest during 2020. Lots of people became sick visiting the Whitehouse last year while performing the people's business.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/27/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Florida is the 23rd state to strip away the $300 supplemental unemployment compensation from common workers. The supplemental is a Federal program but states are permitted to opt-out. These republican states want the workers to get back to cleaning bedpans, turning soiled sheets, flipping burgers, sweeping floors and cleaning toilets, and incentivizing them by taking away their government assistance. Good luck with that approach. Do not expect a return of happy smiling employees. Instead, the states are creating disgruntled workers that will not care about the businesses and at the same time never forget how they were screwed. It will make the coming class war in America all that much more violent and long-lasting. For gosh sakes, waitresses only make $2 to $3 per hour because of tips. The level of tips is nowhere near the pre-pandemic levels so it is a lot to ask of a worker to return to a job making less money, perhaps only $5 or $10 per hour with tips. The upper middle class and elite wealthy in America are completely out of touch on how they hosed the rest of the nation over the last five decades. Medical studies indicate that the people infected with coronavirus enjoy long-lasting antibody protection at least 10 to 12 months and perhaps longer. The combination of vaccinations, natural immunities, and the virus simply running its course over an 18-month period and burning out like prior viruses, create the positive direction and vibe in the United States.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 5/27/21: The COVID-19 origination story gains momentum and attention in the media. The story has legs after 18 scientists published a report a few days ago saying the virus could have came from a laboratory. The Chinese communists have not provided evidence that the virus originated from a bat or other animal and then jumped from animal to human. The CCP is not cooperating with any investigation into the origin of the virus. Of course they are not. If the virus came from animals, China will claim no responsibility for the pandemic. If, however, the lab release theory is proven correct, which we all know it is, the only question is did the CCP bioterrorists release the virus purposely or did coronavirus escape from the lab accidentally? China will never cooperate because they are going to try and avoid paying any reparations to the world. The bill will be billions, maybe a trillion or two? China can be placed on a payment plan to the rest of the world, if not, war may be the answer. The coronavirus origin story is a mystery soup involving China (CCP; Wuhan Institute of Virology; Wuhan Labs), WHO, NIH, US Defense Department, US Department of Homeland Security, Fauci, Collins, EcoHealth and perhaps many others that have become complicit in downplaying the matter over the last year. Johns-Hopkins spokespeople are downplaying the laboratory origination theory. News sources are also reporting and verifying that Chinese military officials, especially one notable officer specializing in bioterrorism, Cao Wuchin, were allegedly involved with the research occurring at the Wuhan laboratories. The truth will set you free China. The world is waiting. The US media, mainly the left-leaning news outlets such as CNN and MSNBC, and internet social media, Facebook, have muzzled the Wuhan Lab origination theory for the last year and even banned people that posted the information. Now a flip-flop. So much for the free press. Biden says the intelligence officers have 90 days to provide a summary on the origins of COVID-19. That is a fool's errand and will become political since China will keep hiding the truth and pointing the finger at other theories. Republicans accuse Biden, a democrat, of being too cozy with Dictator Xi and China. China must be held accountable for its blatant negligence with laboratory safety protocols. The world must tell China that if they continue to cover-up and hide any remaining evidence about the origin of COVID-19, it is an admission of guilt and the other 190 plus nations on earth expect reparations. An audit of all US funding to Chinese laboratories will be helpful to try and figure out if any taxpayer money was used for gain of function research. Fauci and Collins say funding is not intended for gain of function research but cannot verify that US money was not used for these studies. The Wuhan lab origination story gains more traction with each passing hour.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/28/21, at 2:00 AM EST: WHO is requesting more vaccine doses be sent to Africa and wants at least 10% of the population vaccinated by September. The WHO regional director for Africa, Dr Matshidiso Moeti, says, "We know that cases are rising," but it is "too soon to tell if Africa is on the cusp of a third wave." Let's do some Chart 101. Hey idiots, sit down and take a look at this South Africa daily new cases chart (shown above). See that line on the right? It is going upwards. Do you know what up means? Okay. The chart is going up signaling that wave 3 is underway. Do you understand or do you need this repeated and explained again? Namibia's active cases chart has gone parabolic. Angola's daily new cases are setting records and its active cases chart has gone parabolic. There is a major outbreak in progress in southwestern Africa as well as northwestern Africa around Egypt (rippling into the Middle East with Saudi Arabia). Open your eyes, look at the charts, use your mind; that is what you are paid for. South Africa's stock market enjoys the biggest rally in 8 years. Folks must think the second wave ending sounded the all-clear but few likely realize they are already in a third wave. South Africa would be wise to tell the public to be careful, stay away from each other, delay any parties or get-togethers and use masks for the next 2 or 3 weeks. Malaysia imposes a strict lockdown on the population until 6/14/21 to try and stop the recent parabolic outbreak. Tragically, Malaysia reports 7.9K daily new cases yesterday the highest ever. The lockdown will help Malaysia regain control of the pandemic. Tragically, Bolivia reports 3.2K daily new cases the highest ever. Oh-no. Tragically, Columbia reports over 35K daily new cases the highest ever. Central and South America are hurting. The UK may delay the relaxation of restrictions on the public and companies because three-quarter's of the new daily cases are the India B1617 variant. The UK approves the J&J vaccine for use in citizens over 18 years old.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/28/21, at 2:30 AM EST: The US reports 24.4K daily new cases yesterday. It will be interesting to see if cases increase as Americans toss masks in the air and begin comingling again. The 7-day MA is at 23.0K so the daily cases need to be below the 7-day MA to keep pulling it lower. Today's data, Friday, is typically the highest case numbers and then the weekend numbers should be very small. Can we finally see a sub 10K number for daily new cases; maybe? Washington state, Louisiana and Hawaii remain a concern. California and West Virginia are two more states that are jumping on the lottery bandwagon to incentivize the public to become vaccinated. Money talks. 70% of the population is vaccinated in 10 US states; Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/28/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The countries of Bahrain, Chile and Uruguay, and the US state of Hawaii, have stellar vaccination programs at play with strong participation but the infection rates remain high. As a future area of study, it would be interesting to catalog what vaccines were used in these areas this year along with any genomic testing available that can identify the variants occurring. Why isn't the vaccinations providing a better outcome in these regions?
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 5/28/21: The State Department officials are saying off the record that there is almost no evidence of the animal origination theory of coronavirus and it is very unlikely it emerged naturally. The WHO, that lays in bed with the CCP, pooh-poohed the lab origination theory proclaiming there is no evidence, however, they failed to mention or show any evidence to prove the natural animal theory that is developing more holes than swiss cheese. The world plans to hold China accountable and the communists feel the heat. A Chinese spokesman says all the talk about a lab release is conspiracy theories. Get your checkbook ready dirtbag Dictator Xi. The world will heal and then unite and knock on your door for reparations. We can do it the easy way, or we can do it the hard way. China, start saving money since you owe the world bigtime and we plan to collect in the months and year or two ahead.
Note Added Friday Evening, 5/28/21: The CDC releases new guidance on summer camps on a Friday when they can conveniently sneak out the back door for the holiday weekend. The CDC proclaims all summer camps to be open and operate at full capacity without masks if everyone is fully-vaccinated. Right away, bald heads are scratched. Children younger than 12 years old are not yet approved to receive any vaccination. It would not be another day in the pandemic without CDC confusion. Unvaccinated teens do not have to wear a mask outside unless in a 'substantial to high transmission' setting (fancy terminology for a crowd or working close with someone). The CDC makes a mistake of providing micromanaged rules but based on vague subjective decisions like what is a crowd? The CDC says fully-vaccinated children should wear masks inside businesses and workplaces. Common folks struggle to make sense of the different rules. The CDC does not have an easy task but sometimes you have to let go and let people, including children, live life. A simple rule for all kids is going maskless outside for all activities and then maskless inside if everyone in the room is vaccinated, or everyone masked inside if the room has both vaccinated and unvaccinated kids, should be a sufficient guideline that is easy to follow. You do not want kids to grow up hiding under the bed. America already has a generation of adult babies in play.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/29/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 22.8K daily new cases for Friday which, although above the 7-day MA at 22.2K, is an extremely welcome sight. Friday's data is typically the largest numbers of the week so yesterday's low 20K's case number is bigtime good news. Maybe this weekend we get a sub 10K daily new case number? The 3-day MA (the squiggly trend line) may have just peaked with a lower high which is more good news and forecasts a continued downtrend in daily new cases. Tomorrow will provide confirmation. 627 Americans die and the last couple days the deaths are above the 7-day MA at 534 deaths. The 7-day MA trend line for US deaths continues lower which is great but the path lower is gradual; sideways with a downward bias. We need the deaths to drop at a faster rate in America. The vaccinations were supposed to reduce deaths, actually take deaths off the table, and maybe they do, if so, the unvaccinated people must be doing all the dying. Florida's daily new cases are marching higher each day since Monday. Lots of maskless vacationers are headed for, and already enjoying, the Florida beaches. Will the case counts continue higher in the Sunshine State? 609K Americans have died from COVID-19 over the last 15 months. Mexico reports 3K daily new cases the highest in a couple weeks. The virus spread in Central America may be traveling north into Mexico which spells future potential trouble for the United States. Case counts are beginning to move higher in Guatemala. Oklahoma reports big spikes in deaths data but the numbers are reported weekly now so dividing by seven reveals very small numbers and nothing of concern.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/29/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India reports 172K daily new cases so the numbers keep coming down but remain far too high. The 7-day MA trend line for the deaths rolls over and is coming down which is a welcome sight. 3.6K Indians die yesterday which is horrific but at least it is not over 4K. Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay, are in bad shape and the daily case counts are heartbreaking; the West should try and help them. Thailand and Malaysia remain in trouble unable to yet contain the coronavirus outbreaks. Malaysia reports 8.3K daily new cases the highest ever and now an 8-handle. A strict lockdown is in place until 6/14/21 which will help stop the spread but obviously business and commerce comes to a halt, and Malaysians must mentally and emotionally deal with the isolation over the next couple weeks. South Korea's data is flatlining with the pandemic cases remaining elevated. Japan remains on a good path with daily cases continuing lower and the active cases chart has rolled over. Japan continues to get badgered day after day concerning the Olympics. The main beef is that only 2% of the population is vaccinated but the Games will be very limited as to who can attend. At this juncture, the Olympics should go ahead and the athletes should be told 100% they will compete so keep training like Hell. Give them encouragement. Japan will be able to conduct the Olympics so everyone should start rowing in the same direction instead of hitting each other over the head with the oars.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/29/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Nearly 2 million people pass through US airports on Friday the busiest day since the pandemic started. Masks are still required at US airport terminals and when traveling in any public transportation. Nearly 40 million Americans, about 1 in every 8 people, are traveling in some manner this weekend even if it is across town in a car to see Grandma. Many folks are visiting relatives and loved ones they have not seen in a couple years. Others are taking a vacation after over one year of stress and turmoil. Some combine the two. America faces a major test over the coming days to see if the huge increase in traveling and human interaction leads to an increase in daily cases, or not.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/29/21, at 11:00 AM EST: A rock concert scheduled in St Petersburg, Florida, gains attention for charging $18 for tickets for vaccinated people but charging $999.99, one thousand dollars, for unvaccinated people. The enormous fee is dubbed a "No-Vax Tax." Obviously, no one is going to pay the grand to see Teenage Bottlerocket band but their promoter deserves a raise. No one knew who the band was yesterday but today millions know their name. It is a successful publicity stunt. The band members are fully-vaccinated punk rebels. Humorously, the band tells unvaccinated fans to catch them in Orlando where the ticket prices will be normal.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 5/29/21: Oh-no. The UK reports 4.2K daily new cases on Friday and 3.4K cases on Saturday the highest cases since April Fool's Day, but this is no joke. India's B1617 variant is accounting for 3 out of every 4 positive tests. The UK will have to delay some of the planned relaxation of restrictions. The charts and data are on the verge of a new fourth wave for the UK and perhaps it is only wishful thinking that it will not occur. One can only hope for the sake of the Brit's and all of UK is that the new wave 4 will be short-lived as the US wave 4. The UK was battered by the B117 variant that spread to Michigan, USA, but the pandemic had calmed over the last 2 months. Not anymore. Prime Minister Johnson will have to play the role of the wet blanket over the coming days telling the public that the pandemic is not over. Belgium's handling of the pandemic is average at best but in fairness a lot of international travelers are coming and going from Brussels and the nation. Belgium healthcare workers take to the streets protesting for more money and benefits after dealing with the pandemic for over one year's time. The natives are restless around the world.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/30/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US exceeds 34 million total COVID-19 cases and 609K deaths. The Johns-Hopkins data continues to lag in recent weeks. J-H reports 594K deaths. The US reports 12.7K daily new cases yesterday teasing towards a sub 10K cases number. Perhaps today, Sunday, which is typically the lowest data of the week, will provide that sub 10K joy? The 3-day MA trend line for the US daily new cases has peaked and rolled over again which is great since it made another lower high confirming that the ongoing downtrend should continue. The 3-day has printed 7 lower highs and 6 new lower lows so the trend line will descend now and we need to see another lower low over the coming days. 350 Americans die yesterday. The California active cases curve (see above) is playing games again. The chart is flatter than a newlywed's soufflé and started to roll over lower but reverses that direction again and is back into a slight upward bias in recent days. This is why the US active cases curve (shown above) is having a hard time in dropping quickly. California represents a significant chunk of those active cases and the curve needs to drop for the US happy path to continue. The US state data looks very good. After a week or so of Americans frolicking maskless among the spring flowers, there is no substantive increase in daily cases. The next week is key as the data has shown the biggest pop in daily cases occurs about 7 to 12 days after an event, or party or change in human social habits. Life is returning to normal in the US. The AMC, Regal and Cinemark theaters are allowing vaccinated folks to go maskless at the movies. Costco returns to offering in-store food samples and seating, as do other grocery chains. Would you like to try our new delicious wheat cracker covered with a sticky coronavirus spread topped with tasty spike proteins?
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/30/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Protests are increasing across Brazil calling for the ousting of President Bolsonaro as Brazil is in its fifth wave as presented in the country list above. Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Colombia remain in covid Hell. Call it all of South America!! Over 41K daily new cases occur in Argentina on Thursday the highest ever. Chile reports 8.7 daily new cases on Friday the second highest day ever. Japan continues recovering from the current wave as the pounding continues from naysayers that want the Olympics cancelled. Cable news outlets proclaim that Japan cases are rising. No they are not idiots. Did you look at a chart? How comes everyone touts the data and science but few actually study the data and science? The pandemic remains a confusing mess, albeit better under Biden than Trump, with misinformation standard fare. Japan's daily cases topped out on 5/9/21 and cases have dropped ever since now 3 weeks running. Bob Costas, who has the steady reporting gig for the Olympics, moans like a baby that the Games should be postponed again until next summer. He is likely talking his own book and simply does not want to spend July and August in Japan for whatever reason. Stop jerking the athletes around. Tell them to train hard for the early August competitions which will go off safely and are still 2 months away! People are not thinking rationally these days. Other examples of misinformation are found everywhere. On CNN, a story runs showing a graphic that 70% to 85% of Americans need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Wrong. It is either lazy reporting or a democratic narrative is being pushed. The 70% to 85% range is correct and this is touted by Dr Fauci for many months (after he stumbled to identify a range early on). However, this percentage can be attained through BOTH natural immunities from contracting the illness and the antibody protection provided by the vaccines. The CNN graphic only correlates herd immunity to vaccines showing that 40% of the US is fully-vaccinated (true; 40.5% to be exact) well short of the goal. This is the screw-up, again, either occurring because of stupidity, or it is done on purpose to cheerlead the democrat party narrative. President Biden made a mess of the herd immunity concept a few weeks ago when announcing the goal that '70% of the US be vaccinated with at least one dose by 7/4/21'. Biden said the 70% goal was needed for herd immunity but a few astute reporters questioned Sleepy Joe on his proclamation asking how natural antibodies play into his calculus. The Whitehouse performs an immediate about-face and Biden says the 70% goal has nothing to do with herd immunity. Thanks for confusing one of the few issues that were actually cast in stone and everyone understood. No wonder Americans do not pay attention to any of this dribble anymore. People have common sense. No one is using a mask if outside regardless of vaccination status. Each passing day, more and more vaccinated folks are simply saying to heck with it and if stores do not have any requirements they are freely moving inside and out without masks. Some unvaccinated people are walking around maskless but the general consensus is that most folks that are not vaccinated are still using masks if they are close to people. Americans have common sense and are sick of listening to the talking heads provide conflicting information. No one is in charge of the pandemic but everyone is in charge; this management style always fails. Herd immunity is achieved when 70% to 85% of the population is either vaccinated or has contracted covid and has natural antibodies (studies are showing that natural antibodies are lasting many months and potentially a year and more). Thus, 40% of the US is vaccinated and another 30% (100 million or more according to CDC data which is different than the running data tally of about 10%) has contracted covid (many do not even realize they had it due to the asymptomatic nature of the disease). Adding 40% and 30% is 70% which is the lower threshold of herd immunity. This is why the US is experiencing good fortune in its fight against covid; herd immunity is kicking-in. Herd immunity occurs from a combination of vaccinations AND natural immunities not just vaccinations. CNN would show a great graphic if they added the 30% with natural immunities to indicate that we are moving into herd immunity. It is easy to understand but everyone has an agenda nowadays. The liberal-leaning media remains quiet about natural immunity's contribution to herd immunity since the Biden administration continues to push for people to become vaccinated and does not want them to think the worst is over. The powers to be want that mRNA serum in every American's body. Big pharma wants their payoff so perhaps the quid pro quo is that the government will deliver as many future customers as possible for Pfizer and Moderna. Pharma can make the big bucks in future years as they tell everyone they need a shot every September for the remainder of their lives. There is nutty talk (which means it will happen) that the scientists and doctors want to combine the flu and covid vaccines into one shot each Fall.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/30/21, at 11:00 AM EST: 135K people attend the Indianapolis 500 car race. Time will tell if it creates a surge in cases. Adding 8 days is 6/7/21 so Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, hospitals should be on the lookout for an uptick in cases between 6/6/21 and 6/10/21. Americans drive from many states to watch the famous race but many spectators are locals. If the daily new cases at the Indianapolis hospitals remain steady or fall next week, that will be great news since the huge event would not generate a big outbreak. If, however, cases rise at the hospitals within a 100-mile radius of the raceway and the overall daily cases rise in the state of Indiana, that spells trouble. This test case can be applied to other events so the same outcome would be expected in other parts of the country. The next 2 weeks will be interesting to see the impact of Americans tossing masks in the air and frolicking in their newfound freedom. The raceway has a pop-up vaccination site. Tumbleweeds roll by the location as race fans opt for the beer instead of the shot.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 5/30/21: The Japan bashing continues. Olympics naysayer place the Olympics rings on their fist, using them as brass knuckles, beating anyone that wants to see the Games go ahead. The Gloomy Gus's proclaim doom and gloom if the Games occur. One of the media outlets started a timer and countdown with 54 days showing to stoke the fear. That is funny although they mean it to be serious. Japan's cases continue to drop for 3 weeks running. The island nation extends the state of emergency in many regions but this is not due to a rising case count, as media outlets probably assumed without looking at data, but instead due to an abundance of caution for the upcoming games. Japan is telling its population to stay home if you can, be good, and help make the Olympics safe. The government is considering not allowing Japanese spectators to attend the games; a decision is due in 2 or 3 weeks. That would make people feel safer but may not be necessary and the athletes would perform in empty stadiums. Foreign spectators were already banned from attending. The Negative Nancy's proclaim that Japanese hospitals are overrun to the breaking point pumping fear into everyone's minds. No wonder the polls say a majority of folks suggest cancelling the Games. They are listening to the negative media. Japan is in good shape; the path ahead is positive. Osaka is the only region where the hospitals are packed but conditions are improving each day. Encourage the athletes to train hard and get ready to compete in 54 days. Everyone needs to take a chill pill and relax. Take time to smell the roses, and the Olympic torch.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 5/30/21: The Wuhan Lab-leak story has long legs dominating much of the news in the US. Fingers are pointed at the left-leaning media for dismissing the lab-leak theory all of last year into early this year after former President Trump referenced the matter several times. Just as the republicans viewed everything former President Obama did as wrong and needing reversed, the democrats view everything that Trump did as wrong and needing reversed. This is the broken crony capitalism system in its last throes. The lab-leak theory is the most obvious coronavirus origination story, as has been written in every Coronavirus Chronology article over the last 15 months; the question is if it was an intentional or accidental release. China has to come clean, otherwise, the world will never know the truth except that the lying filthy CCP communists lie. But you should have known that already. China will remain obstinate and fight against any investigation into the origin of COVID-19 because they know the truth. American media, such as Bloomberg, blatantly downplays the lab-leak theory. Of course they do. Bloomberg ran for the democrat nomination for president so the network touts the left-leaning messaging in its reporting and is sympathetic to China. If you want straight news on coronavirus, do not get it there. CDC Director Walensky, a Massachusetts native, throws out the first pitch at a Boston Red Sox game at Fenway Park. She throws a strike to the catcher a much better performance than last year when Fauci was honored with throwing the first pitch at a baseball game and the ball almost landed in the stands. Fauci and Collins are quiet this weekend.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/31/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Happy Memorial Day. Thank you to all the veterans that sacrificed themselves for the United States of America. The US reports only 7,750 daily new cases yesterday. Wow. AMERICA IS BELOW 10K DAILY NEW CASES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE START OF THE PANDEMIC. Dr Fauci often cites the 10K daily case level as a key turning point when the country will truly have a firm handle on controlling the virus. We are there. Americans, and Pharrell, can feel the Happy vibe. Only 124 Americans die from covid yesterday. Of course that is 124 families in deep mourning this morning but it is the lowest deaths since the start of the pandemic. It is interesting that the US is in the same spot as this time last year only then cases were about to begin ramping higher due to the holiday parties and events, but this year the case counts are dropping. However, the jury remains out over the next week or two until it is determined if the relaxing of the mask guidelines causes superspreader events. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) decrees that companies have the right to require employees to take the vaccine. Bend over. The EEOC also proclaims that the lotteries and incentive programs encouraging vaccinations are okay as long as they are not 'coercive' (held over the employee's head as a threat). Exemptions from vaccines would be permitted for religious reasons. Keystone went to a drive-in vaccination site and as he stood on the front seat with his pants halfway to his knees, Nurse Goodbody started yelling, "Stop!" Keystone sat down and said he was there for a shot but the nurse said it is supposed to go into the arm and not a buttock cheek.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/31/21, at 7:00 AM EST: India exceeds 28 million total cases and 329K deaths. India reports 153K daily new cases the lowest number in 6 weeks. 3.1K Indians die yesterday. The numbers are moving in the right direction. India, the largest manufacturer of vaccines in the world, says production will increase over the coming weeks. Brazil's troubles continue as the fifth wave continues higher. Protesters take to the streets calling for President Bolsonaro's impeachment. Media outlets are referencing Brazil's new outbreak as wave 3 but it is wave 5. Oh-no. Russia reports 9.7K daily new cases the highest since mid-March 3 months ago. Putin has a problem. Is that Sputnik V vaccine any good? Was the Sputnik V shot used in central South America where the outbreak is out of control currently? European countries are placing restrictions on travelers from the UK. The recent outbreak has UK PM Johnson concerned (Johnson just got married to his partner and they have one child together). The UK reports 4.2K daily new cases on Friday the highest since late March so it is key that daily new cases do not exceed this number going forward. So far, so good. Chile, Bolivia and Paraguay remain in bad shape. Malaysia, Bhutan, Vietnam and Thailand remain challenged. The five global hotspots shown in the map above continue. South Africa's wave 3 continues. Namibia and Angola remain challenged. The only bright spot is India improving but the suffering will continue there for a long time.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 5/31/21: Vietnam says the current fourth wave is exacerbated by a new variant that is a combination of the India B1617 (B.1.617.2) and UK B117 (B.1.1.7) strains. Just what the world needs. Scientists say this variant is more transmissible through the air. A small percentage of Vietnam is vaccinated. Australia has handled the pandemic well over the last year although a small outbreak in Victoria creates concern. Victoria's daily cases jump from 4 to 50 over the last week as winter begins in the southern hemisphere. The world map above shows the five current global COVID-19 hotspots that are mainly in the southern hemisphere that is now bracing for the winter season. Folks will spend more time indoors coughing and breathing on each other. The northern hemisphere is in better shape because of the ongoing vaccination programs. Developed nations should begin helping the less-developed and third-world nations form logistics plans for distributing vaccine. This is the major challenge ahead. About 6 billion vaccines should be available for the world by the end of the year so it would be great to have plans in place, be it using donkeys, canoes, biplanes, parachuting vaccinators, whatever, so the shots into arms can occur as fast as possible. It will be a great tragedy pounded on top of the horrific and epic pandemic if a few weeks and months from now countries say they have the vaccines available but cannot get the shots into the arms due to the remote locations of people. The time to plan that is NOW. What is WHO doing? Sleeping? Where is Director-General Tedros? Sleeping with the CCP on red stain sheets? He left a meeting to go to the men's room the other day and could not find his way back. The hot humid air is better at stopping the virus than dry less-humid air. The tiny coronavirus particles attach to either water vapor droplets in the air, or dust particles, and go along for a ride potentially to find another body to infect. Dry, less-humid indoor air, especially in the winter time, circulates these combination particles longer than humid air. The virus particles that attach to dust and water particles in humid conditions fall out faster so there is less chance of infection. The aerosols and droplets circulating in dry air will tend to float around longer and travel farther increasing the chance of infection.
Note Added Monday Evening, 5/31/21: The Wuhan Lab-leak drama continues. China complains that they are the victims of a smear campaign. No they are not. The CCP are filthy liars playing the world as sucka's but that will not fly. The countries of the world want to know where and how the devastating coronavirus, claiming over 3.5 million lives, a genocide, originated. China knows the truth but refuses to cooperate with the world. Doctors and scientists around the world are jumping on the lab-leak bandwagon calling for a deep investigation into the origin of coronavirus. Dr Peter Hotez says, "There will be a COVID-26 and a COVID-32" if the origin of COVID-19 is not better understood. The Chinese Communist Party, CCP, will fight the investigations into covid with all their might, creating lots of disinformation along the way, to avoid taking any responsibility for the bioterrorism. Some of the left-leaning media in the US continue downplaying the Wuhan Lab-leak story of course based on their own agendas. One doctor throws out an idea that both theories may be correct and coronavirus came from animals, and the lab was trying to determine what was going on, when a leak occurred. Dr Gottlieb makes news proclaiming that "lab leaks happen all the time" around the world and even in the US now and then. The medical community may be trying to provide China some off-ramps to help them out of the mess as time goes by. China will not take any of those off-ramps. Even backroom diplomacy will not help. The communist nation will never cooperate since they do not want to be held financially liable for the COVID-19 pandemic even though they started it. China, known for its lab accidents and safety violations, and hundreds of wet (animal) markets they refuse to clean-up (because of cultural reasons), must understand that the world expects reparations in the future. Dirtbag Dictator Xi better start saving money in his Winnie-the-Pooh piggy bank. (China has banned Winnie-the-Pooh and its toy and book platform forever since it is used as a caricature of dirtbag Xi who is a typical thin-skinned communist.)
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/1/21, at 2:00 AM EST: America goes back to work after the holiday weekend. The red Solo cups are put away until Independence Day. Bands and musicians are happy finally playing in front of an audience again. Events, concerts and beaches were packed across the United States although the rainy cool weather in the northeast states hampered their fun. Perhaps Americans will stop bickering and get back to being Everyday People as Sly would sing in 1969. The next couple weeks are key to see if the increased human comingling leads to more new coronavirus cases, or not. The news is fantastic for the US. On Friday, the daily cases were 12.9K a low number on the day of the week that typically reports the highest numbers. Then Saturday drops to 8.1K daily new cases, a sub 10K number!, and yesterday down to 5.2K daily cases. Yeehaw! Rejoice! Throw the confetti. Coronavirus is on the run in America. It is beaten back by the combination of vaccinations and natural immunities creating herd immunity (the virus has less places to go so it is burning itself out). Interestingly, most of the 5K cases identified are via PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests which pick up the smallest amount of molecules indicating the presence of the virus; a highly detailed and reliable test. In other words, the daily new cases occurring are mostly people that do not even know they are sick (asymptomatic), and are simply testing positive through routine testing (they are not deathly ill crawling to a hospital). Most viruses burn themselves out after about 18 months and it appears that COVID-19 is thankfully following this playbook (January 2020 to July 2021). Only 132 Americans die on Sunday and only 115 die yesterday. The 247 deaths create grief and sadness for many families but the lower numbers are excellent news. Granted, the last two days would be expected to be low numbers because it is Sunday and the Memorial Day holiday, but these great numbers are exceedingly lower than would be expected. The happy situation in the US is tempered by the ongoing covid hotspots around the world.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/1/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India continues improving. UK remains concerned about a potential new COVID-19 wave beginning that is predominantly made up of the India B1617 variant.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/2/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports only 13K daily new cases yesterday the first day of June. The number did not spike that much considering the uber low weekend numbers which is more good news. The California active cases curve shown above remains a concern since it has such a huge impact on the overall US active cases chart and finally it hints of roll over again. Yesterday is 1.671 million active cases in the Golden State. The day before is 1.672 million cases. Eureka! Sure it is a fraction lower but the direction matters. California must tamp these active cases down so the overall US active cases curve can drop off more sharply. 287 Americans die yesterday. Louisiana should redouble its mitigation efforts as cases rise.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/2/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India reports 127K daily new cases; maybe a sub 100K number will appear any day forward. India's peak in daily cases was 414K (3 times higher) on 5/6/21 almost a month ago. Hang in there India. Brazil reports over 465K total deaths from coronavirus only surpassed by the US. Brazil reports 78K daily new cases yesterday. The case numbers are far too high and this is occurring day after day. No wonder Brazilians are protesting for the impeachment of President Bolsonaro. His people are dropping like flies for months. The UK is succeeding in holding back the ongoing threat of the India B1617 variant, for now. The Philippines has been beaten-down over the last year. Coronavirus cases are beginning to elevate again as power outages are becoming routine across the island nation. Chinese jets and military aircraft violate Malaysia airspace. Malaysia is in lockdown until 6/14/21 trying to tamp down the virus outbreak and the filthy CCP is playing games. China's dirtbag Dictator Xi makes a speech saying he wants China to expand its friends around the world. You have no friends Xi. You do have about 190 countries that have buried bodies murdered by the China Virus. As the pandemic is brought under control, all these countries are banding together and want reparations. There's your friendship, jackass. China says one person is infected with H10N3 Avian (Bird) Flu. There is no person to person spread as yet but you cannot trust any information from the lying communists. The cover-up of the virus leaking from the Wuhan Lab is a case in point. China likely released the bird flu news to detract from the Wuhan Lab-leak story that is hurting China bigtime. Worldwide polls show that China's stature in the world is slipping away due to the pandemic that started inside the communist country. The China Virus has sickened 172 million people and murdered 3.6 million global citizens. Xi must be held accountable. As Mike sings, "with friends like you, who needs enemies?" The world may decide to leave China 'Far Behind'.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/2/21, at 3:00 PM EST: The Japan Olympics fear-mongering continues. CNN's Jake Tapper exclaims that a "surge in cases" is occurring in Japan. Wrong. The teleprompter is feeding you false information. Japan's daily new cases peaked 3 weeks ago and have been trailing lower ever since, in fact, that is the opposite of a surge. Not to pick on CNN individually, the other media outlets are just as sloppy with their journalism these days. People believe what they are told whether it is true or not. 10K Japanese volunteers for the Olympics quit no doubt due to the non-stop fear-mongering that the world will end if the Olympics occur. Turns out that the 10K is over the last 5 months and has more to do with Japanese politics. There are 70K volunteers anxiously awaiting the Olympics and looking forward to their duties. The Olympics are just under 2 months away and the pandemic is heading in the right direction for 3 weeks running so the Games should work out fine. The negativity attacking the Games is relentless. Think about the athletes. The Games were already delayed and the athletes have one shot at attaining their life's goal and it is now or never. Let the athletes compete and stop with all the naysaying.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/2/21, at 5:00 PM EST: President Biden speaks on the pandemic. He announces a "National Month of Action." Biden declares a big push for vaccinations this month of June, heading into the Independence Day holiday on 7/4/21, but it may be a tough sell since the virus is being tamped-out in the United States. Daily cases keep dropping and the 7-day MA trend line is down to 16.5K daily new cases per day well under the 20K level and headed for sub 10K for the average. Two of the holiday weekend days already reported sub 10K individual days. Americans sense that the pandemic is on its way out and are beginning to frolic and socially comingle with one another more each day. Biden is promoting his goal for '70% of the US adult population to receive at least one vaccine dose by 7/4/21'. The media outlets continue confusing the goal sometimes mentioning 'adult' sometimes not. The CDC COVID Data Tracker reports today that '63% of the US adult population has received at least one dose' which is 162 million people. Let's do some simple math. Dividing 162 by 0.63 reveals that 257 million Americans are age 18 years old and older. There are 330 million people in the US so 78% (257/330) of the population is older than 18. Sleepy Joe's goal is 70% and we are at 63% so another 7% is needed. Since there are 257 million adults in America, 70% is 180 million adults (257x0.70). Thus, since 162 million adults are already vaccinated with at least one dose, the US needs to jab another 18 million adults (180-162). If you click the 'Vaccination Trends' tab on the CDC site, the vaccination rate chart appears and it does not look good for the Whitehouse gang. The US vaccination rate falls off a cliff down to 1.3 million doses per day as per the 7-day MA trend line. It was unfortunate that the 7-day broke down to a lower low on 5/22/21 which forecasted more lows ahead which are occurring. Nonetheless, a 1.3 million doses per day is a great vaccination rate and everyone involved should be happy with that number. The purpose of Biden's speech today is to plot the course forward for the pandemic for June to reach that 70% goal. The 12 to 18 year age group is being vaccinated now so if 18 million more adults need vaccinated to reach the 70% goal, a few more million need added, say 4 million pulling a number out of thin air, to account for vaccinations given to teens and kids under 18 years old over the next month. Let's say about 22 million more people, adults and the 12 to 18 age group together, needs vaccinated to reach the 70% adult goal. Thus, 22 million divided by 1.3 million doses per day is 17 days. Biden will reach the '70% of American adults vaccinated with at least one dose goal on Friday, 6/18/21, a couple weeks from now'. The 1.3 million doses per day vaccination rate will keep falling which creates concern for the Whitehouse that wants to meet the 70% goal and wave it in the air along with the American flag, hotdogs and apple pie come July 4th. Maybe Martina will sing Independence Day to celebrate; she nailed it with the Pops. What would be the lowest dose rate possible that would still permit Sleepy Joe to reach his 70% goal? 22 million more Americans need vaccinated for the goal and there are 33 days remaining until 7/4/21, thus, 22 divided by 33 is a 0.666 million doses per day vaccination rate. A 0.7 million doses per day vaccination rate, or 700K per day, or 700,000 per day, all are the same, is the lowest rate that can occur for the president to reach his 70% goal. As the rate continues to unfortunately drop, that 6/18/21 day when the 70% adult goal will be achieved will be pushed forward a few more days. President Biden is in good shape to achieve the goal and celebrate on Independence Day. If the vaccination rate goes sub 0.7 million per day any day forward, Joe will need a new plan. Perhaps in the nick of time, the 'emergency approval' of the vaccines will flip to 'official approval' and the US military will be told to roll up their sleeves and take the shot whether they want to or not (one-half of the military currently does not want the vaccine). Vaccinating millions of US military personnel will easily put Biden over the 70% adult goal. Commanding officers are probably already pressuring underlings to take the shot. It is disturbing to witness the sick obsession in the US to have everyone vaccinated even labeling Americans as unpatriotic, or trouble-makers, if they do not kneel and roll up their sleeve for the shot. That is not a good direction for society. Biden's speech continues.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/2/21, at 5:30 PM EST: The president says he will outline five key points for the June plan to get people vaccinated but provides a dozen. He says 90% of Americans are within 5 miles of a vaccination site. The shots are free (polling data indicates that one-third of the unvaccinated folks think that they will have to pay some amount of money to receive the shot). No appointments are necessary in many locations. Pharmacies will remain open 24 hours on Friday nights. Various childcare organizations including the YWCA are offering free services including childcare for people that want to get vaccinated. Uber and Lyft are providing free lifts to get vaccinated. Biden proclaims that if you get a shot now, you will have the second shot by July 4th and you can celebrate "without fear or worry." In truth, humorously, there will be millions of unvaccinated folks celebrating with complete loss of fear and worry on Independence Day. The president says Vice President Harris and the Second Gentlemen, and First Lady Jill, will tour the southern states in the coming days to encourage vaccinations. Will it really help? Who knows but you have to always give credit for people that are trying things. Biden announces a "shots at the shops" campaign where barber and beauty shops and stylists offer assistance to folks in making appointments or in locating vaccination sites. Some of the shops may also offer the actual vaccination shots only it would be wise to locate the nurse far away from the blue Barbicide jar holding the combs. Biden says volunteers will play a big part in the June vaccination drive. Sleepy Joe encourages people to tell their friends to get vaccinated. This is not a good idea pitting the citizenry against each other. Why such a sick crazy push to stick that mRNA into everyone's veins? Telling Americans to bother other Americans about getting vaccinated can only lead to altercations and perhaps violence. Leave people alone. If they do not want vaccinated, do not keep hounding them like some sick control freak. That could only lead to bad outcomes. Nonetheless, the president pushes people to sign up at the 'We Can Do This', (a go-to catchphrase of Biden's) website; www. wecandothis.hhs.gov. The hashtag #WeCanDoThis is also appearing on Twitter. An Israeli study links heart muscle inflammation, myocarditis, in young men mostly ages 16 to 24 years old, to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination. The condition remains rare and the medical folks suggest continuing with the vaccination program. The US is investigating the same problem with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. US daily cases are dropping. Americans sitting on the fence may want to sit on the fence a little longer since it is party-time in the US as the pandemic disappears (public perception). With all due respect to the smart people at the Whitehouse and to Sleepy Joe, none of the above measures are going to convince anyone that does not want vaccinated to be vaccinated. The measures will help with folks that work a couple jobs, long hours, or odd shifts, or have heavy family obligations. Also, poorer people without transportation will be helped. Perhaps a better approach would be to simply go into house call mode. Rather than all the fancy gimmicks, including the lotteries, beer, doughnuts, hamburgers and other incentives, the smarter path ahead will simply be house calls like the old days. Three or four-people shot teams could go out on house calls to vaccinate people or visit local community centers or bingo halls (a shooter, helper, driver, security). They can drive around all day, house to house, giving shots as people call in to a dispatcher. Once the official approvals are received for vaccines instead of emergency approvals, shots can occur more easily in doctors offices but house calls may be the way to go after the June push ends. A positive development showing that the US is on the ball is an accelerated effort to vaccinate people at the Oregon and Washington docks. Ocean ships are backed-up for weeks due to the acceleration of the US economy so extra effort is occurring to vaccinate the seafaring individuals and everyone associated with moving products at the docks. The docks are a major area of virus spread during the whole pandemic. Some African port nations had major outbreaks a couple months ago
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/2/21, at 7:00 PM EST: Dr Fauci is in the soup again. A FOIA request (Freedom of Information Act) filed by BuzzFeed News provides thousands of pages of documents, emails and communications to and from Fauci, who now probably wishes he retired two years ago. The emails show coziness with Facebook CEO Zuckerberg. Dirt is beginning to surface concerning the Wuhan Lab-leak. NIH Director Collins emailed Fauci saying the "conspiracy gains momentum" when Fox News reported about the lab-leak last year. Much of the information is redacted (blacked-out) due to its sensitive nature but it hints that the government was trying to dispel the news story about a lab leak which may actually be the origin of COVID-19. Fauci appears caught up in the celebrity aspect of the pandemic. The emails show confusion on what to tell the public about mask-wearing early on in the pandemic. Fauci and Collins are quiet when asked for comment. Senator Rand Paul, who spars with Fauci at Capitol Hill hearings, says the doctor is a "massive fraud." Paul tweets, "It's time to fire Fauci! Emails that have been released now under Freedom of Information Act show two very important things: 1. FAUCI has been lying. 2. I've been right all along. Stand with me today while we keep showing the way." The good doctor Fauci should have taken the gold watch and rubber chicken luncheon two years ago at a retirement party, instead, he may resign in shame. The lie in the beginning of the pandemic where Americans were told not to wear masks, while they watched hospital workers handle patients dressed in hazmat suits, was damaging. Instead of uniting the country and telling everyone to give the N95 masks to hospital workers, the lie was told so people would not hoard masks. It shows you what leaders, including former President Trump, thought of the common people. Once something begins as a lying mess it continues along that way. The emails are going to tarnish Fauci's halo.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 6/2/21, at 8:00 PM EST: Whitehouse Senior Advisor Andy Slavitt is leaving but it was always intended as a temporary position. Slavitt did a good job communicating so Sleepy Joe should convince him to stick around if he is able. High-profile jobs are demanding. CDC Director Walensky repeats President Biden's pledge to provide 80 million vaccines to foreign nations. It is a drop in the bucket and the developed world needs to step up efforts to help the undeveloped nations become vaccinated. Everyone understand the urgency. The US had to make sure that it will not drown when it jumps in the water to save the other drowning victims (third-world countries). America needed a life preserver around itself so it could then save others. Help is on the Way, or is it, as Rise Against sings? Walensky echoes the thinking that the US had to right its ship first saying, "We needed to put on our own oxygen masks before we were able to help others. And now we are actively doing that." America does not have to, and should not, apologize to any nation on earth. Those countries know that the US is their best friend. Kansas, Ohio, Texas, Florida and many other mainly republican-leaning states, are passing legislation that limits the power of health officials during pandemics. Outbreaks have both health and economic considerations. Many people are concerned about the overreach of the health officials. A balance between health and economic conditions must be addressed for future pandemics because if the virus does not get you, the isolation, depression, and loss of livelihood in a lockdown may.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/3/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 17K daily new cases the most in 4 days but no biggie. 514 Americans die yesterday so the data is catching-up from the holiday. India reports 134K daily new cases and 2.9K deaths yesterday. Whoa. Mexico reports 6.9K daily new cases a big spike higher over twice recent daily numbers. It may be a data backlog that is catching-up but that number is too big to ignore. The US needs to guard the lower flank. Colombia and Central America are at high infection rates and the virus works its way into Mexico. The active cases curve is curling higher for Mexico which is extremely bad news. Malaysia's 7-day MA trend line for daily new cases is flattening and should roll over in the coming days; the lockdown measures are working. Oh-no. The chronology has been screaming for the US or someone to help Bolivia for over 2 weeks already but no one cares. Bolivia reports over 3.4K daily new cases the highest ever. 115 Bolivians die yesterday the deadliest day of the current wave and fourth deadliest day ever. Paraguay is in the same sinking coronavirus boat. That central South America region is getting hit with something really bad. Oh-no. Brazil takes a tragic turn for the worse reporting over 94.5K daily new cases, almost 100K!, the second worst day ever. Where's Bolsonaro? Bueller? Bolsonaro? Bueller? The UK reports 4,330 daily new cases yesterday the highest since late March. The India B1617 variant is keeping PM Johnson up all night. Africa remains challenged. Namibia, southwestern Africa, reports the deadliest day of the pandemic on Monday. Oh-no. South Africa reports 5.8K daily new cases the highest of this current wave 3 that the medical community is finally starting to accept. They should have accepted it 3 weeks ago. South Africa's wave 3 started a month ago. Uganda reports a big jump in daily new cases. The northern hemisphere is in decent shape so it is time to help the southern hemisphere as their winter season begins.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/3/21, at 7:30 AM EST: Dr Fauci appears on the Morning Joe show on MSNBC, a left-leaning media outlet, defending his communications in emails that were released to the public. He is doing a lot of tap-dancing and latches on to the 'open mind' buzzwords. When asked about the Wuhan Lab-leak theory, Fauci proclaims, "Keep an open mind and take a look." He will not say whether is it is more likely that coronavirus originated from an animal (jump of species) or from the Wuhan Lab-leak. Open mind, open mind, everyone must keep an open mind. That will be new Fauci diatribe. The doctor says China made a mistake in destroying the wet market because that wiped out important evidence that could determine the origin of covid. Fauci tells the publc "don't be accusatory" when discussing the lab-leak and other theories. Screw that. The China Flu started in Wuhan so we need to know how, why, when, etc... We do not have to be nice about it. The China Virus has killed 3.6 million people in the world. If COVID-19 started in another province, perhaps Hunan in the summer of 2019, then that needs to be tracked and traced. (Wuhan is in the Hubei province which is located directly north of the Hunan province.) Face it world. China is screwing everyone. They could immediately provide blood samples of the three Wuhan Lab workers that were infected with virus in November 2019. It is a communist country so they are not concerned about the lab worker's rights. China chooses not to cooperate in any manner even with something so simple as providing these blood samples. Screw them. You have to know who your friends and enemies are, who has your best interest at heart, and who is stabbing you in the back and lying to you. China owes the world. Fauci opines that people and the Twittersphere are always taking his comments out of context. Wah, wah, wah. Do you want a little cheese to go with that whine? Do you need anymore proof that Fauci is no longer effective? His own words say that his statements are always taken out of context. That means that his usefulness as a communicator has ended by his own admission. Tony, you should have taken the gold watch, obligatory slideshow presentation of your years in epidemiology, and touching group rendition of 'For He's a Jolly Goodfellow', at your retirement party, instead of riding out this horrendous pandemic that leaves lives, and your career, in shambles. Younger blood needs to be in government and political positions. Fauci is in his 70's. Both King Donnie Trump and Sleepy Joe Biden are pushing 80.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 6/3/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Dr Fauci's upcoming book, titled Expect the Unexpected: Ten Lessons on Truth, Service and the Way Forward, is pulled from Amazon and Barnes & Noble. The book was on pre-sale for $18 and supported by National Geographic that also planned to release a short film at the same time. Maybe whiteout the 'Truth' part and the title should still be good to go. The luster fades from the Fauci rose. Any books already printed can be used to level the kitchen table (place one under the leg).
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 6/3/21: As the US looks forward to the summer fun, it is not without concern for the rest of the world. Now that America is on the right path, and the vaccination rate continues dropping, more of the vaccine supply will begin shipping overseas. There are about 6 billion people in the world living in low and middle-income nations and only about 0.7% are vaccinated. The NIH says a new drug named TEMPOL shows promise as an oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19. NIH Director Collins is grilled by the press over the Wuhan Lab leak and potential US funding of gain of function research at the communist lab that may have contributed to the development of the virus. China is not cooperating with any investigations into the origin of COVID-19 because of concern over liability. The world holds China responsible for the pandemic. Collins is defensive against a Fox News anchor for asking numerous questions about the potential Wuhan Lab leak. Collins says the 'outrageous conspiracy' he mentioned in the Fauci emails was in reference to people saying the virus was a bioengineered weapon. Collins proclaims that both the natural animal-to-human and lab-leak theories are possible. Last year, however, like most others in the scientific and pundit community, he was downplaying a lab leak while boosting the animal transmission theory. Fauci, Collins and others in hot water will toss out flip comments using words such as bioengineering, bioweapons, human-made and human engineered in the hope of confusing the issue. No one, or extremely few individuals, believe that the virus was developed from scratch in the Wuhan Laboratories. It is more likely the virus was brought into the lab for research, perhaps as part of China's bioweapons program since a military officer is involved in the labs, and covid escaped the lab. There are many past safety violations so Occam's razor always leads to the truth (the most obvious explanation is typically the correct explanation). The questions remaining, however, are endless. Was the lab leak accidental or intentional? Maybe China was experimenting on the Wuhan people? To what extent is the Chinese (CCP) military involved in the Wuhan Laboratories? Did America's money end up at the lab (yes) and was it used for gain of function research (to make viruses worse for study) and potentially fund the development of COVID-19 (unknown)? The world needs to know the truth, no matter what it is, as the planet recovers from China's malfeasance. Collins decrees, "I categorically deny that the NIH and its grant funding in a subcontract with the Wuhan Institute of Virology was permitted to do anything that would have created a virus that would have increased its transmissibility or virulence for humans. I categorically deny that and I'm a bit unhappy when people keep repeating those claims when they're simply not true!" Sounds like he was practicing that statement in front of the mirror this morning after discussing it with the lawyers. Note that Collins says the Wuhan Labs were 'not permitted' to use the funds to develop COVID-19 but that does not mean that they did not use the funds in that manner. What were the audit procedures? How was the USA guaranteed that gain of function research was not being performed with American taxpayer money? There were likely no audits on where the money went and how it was used. Perhaps the scientific community sipped brandy at afternoon parties, touching elbows with the communist scientists, and nodding knowingly about the inside game. 'Nudge, nudge, wink, wink,' as Monty Python would say. Collins would be more truthful if he stands on a soapbox, index finger pointed skyward, proclaiming that 'the US did not permit any funds to be used for gain of function research, although we do not know what the CCP used the money for (mumbling the last part softy under breath)'.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 6/3/21: The NIH says the vaccines did not work well for millions of individuals using medications for other illnesses and treatments. Vaccines are not producing antibodies in people using CellCept, a lupus drug, or Methotrexate, a chemo (cancer), rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis drug, or Rituximab (RITUXAN), a cancer (lymphoma) drug. That sucks. Scientists are unsure what to suggest for these millions of people. They received the shot and got buptkis. Fauci wonders if their therapies should be suspended or if they should be given boosters. The NIH is continuing to investigate this complex issue. Good luck to all the folks involved. More anecdotal evidence is surfacing with breakthrough cases(people that contract coronavirus despite being vaccinated). Two ladies working in the same office in New Jersey test positive for covid despite being vaccinated. Not to pick on Johnny John, but many of the breakthrough cases, such as the baseball players a couple weeks ago, are occurring with people that received the one and done Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The two women received the J&J vaccine as did the ballplayers. Perhaps it may be a batch issue when producing the vaccine? Or a storage or handling issue prior to administering the shot?
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/4/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The China Flu has infected 173 million people around the world and murdered over 3.7 million. It is horrendous devastation. India reports 131K daily new cases having trouble moving the case count sub 100K. The UK reports 5.2K daily new cases another higher high so wave 4 in the UK is sadly underway. That's a shame. The UK got hit with B117 and is now smacked around with the India B1617 strain. Prime Minister Johnson faces tough decisions in the days ahead for his nation. The virus is spreading again in the UK. Bolivia and Paraguay remain in terrible shape and need help. Mexico reports a huge 306 deaths yesterday which has to be a statistical blip; they are likely rectifying the data set in some manner. Mexico is as corrupt as the day is long so infection and death numbers are likely hidden under politician's desks throughout the country. Cambodia is hit with a double-wave pattern. Cambodia was in good shape mid-May but conditions deteriorate again with daily cases rising sharply. Vietnam and Thailand remain challenged. Ditto Malaysia and Taiwan. Malaysia is having difficulty controlling the pandemic despite the current lockdown and government finances are a major concern. South Africa's wave 3 worsens.
Note Added Friday Morning, 6/4/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The Wuhan Virus has infected over 34 million Americans and murdered 611,611 citizens. The Johns-Hopkins death numbers continue to fall behind remaining down at 596K. J-H appears reluctant to hit the 600K number. The Worldometer data blew through 600K dead, and 610K dead and 612K dead should tick off any time. China owes the US, and world, reparations. The US reports 17.8K daily new cases yesterday and 574 deaths. The 3-day MA trend line for US daily new cases keeps printing lower lows and lower highs which maintains the happy downtrend. The 3-day is coming up again so it is important that it prints another lower high. The Wuhan Lab leak theory is dominating the coronavirus news coverage the last three days.
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