SOX is 433.12 well above 424.15, bullish. VIX is 13.56 well below 14.15, bullish. XLF 18.55 well above 17.98, bullish. TRIN is 0.87, under one today, favoring bulls, however, it is trying to push higher s the day proceeds. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart and the SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. The full moon and eclipse is approaching. Markets are typically bullish through the full moon. There are three eclipses occurring over the next month which makes for interesting skies. The SPX popped above 1579 so a move to the low 1580's would be expected but price has only made it up to a HOD at 1581.34. That number is important today. Resistance is 1580, 1582, 1586, 1588, 1589 (last week's high), and 1593. Support is 1576, 1575, 1569, 1566.49 (20-day MA), and 1565.
The SPX hourly and minute charts are agreeable to price rolling over today, however, the 2-hour SPX chart shows the RSI never reaching overbot territory. The RUT (small caps) and SPX are leading the upside today while the Nadaq (tech) and the Dow Industrials are lagging. Dividend stocks such as T (-6%), PG (-5%) and LLY (-3%) are slapped today. Perhaps a rotation out of the dividend bubble stocks is beginning? Anyone that went long these three divvy stocks over the last few days had their entire yield for the year wiped out in one single day, then some. Folks chasing a 3 to 7% yield in a perceived safe haven stock may be disappointed when the stock is down 10% or 20% as the weeks play out. At that point, the yield would look paltry and the safe haven thesis would evaporate. The broad indexes are flat to weak today. The dollar/yen leaked lower, now at 99.42, creating a weight on the markets today. VIX 14.15 is likely the key metric to watch to see if the bears can start flexing their muscles again.
Note Added 12:38 PM: The dollar/yen is 99.42. Crude oil 90.79 after hitting 91. The 10-year is flat at 1.70%. VIX is 13.58. TRIN is 0.83. No flash crashes today, so far. Markets are uninspiring today, traveling along flat. Watch dollar/yen, VIX and TRIN.
Note Added 3:09 PM: Dollar/yen 99.48. VIX 13.38. TRIN 0.78. So dollar/yen is a touch up, VIX remaining at lows, and TRIN remaining at lows, so SPX gains two or three handles to print a HOD at 1583.00. Crude 91.51. The 10-year yield sits at 1.70%. Price continues to move through the low 1580's area which serves as a right shoulder for the H&S pattern highlighted this morning. If the SPX squeezes out any more juice, it may want to fill a tiny one penny gap between the 4/12/13 close and the 4/13/13 open at 1588-1589. SPX hourly and minute charts remain agreeable to rolling over from here due to negative divergence.
Note Added 3:39 PM: Dollar/yen 99.47. VIX 13.62. TRIN 0.74. Markets move sideways into the closing bell.
AAPL's been hugging the 401 most of the day. I'm looking for the 380, but they may not happen anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteAAPL jumpy today. It received a lot of downgrades today and with the earnings drama, it is usually best to wait a couple days to see how the smoke clears. A plan could be a long entry at 370-390, if price does not come down, then more power to the longs in it, they can ride it up then. There are always a lot of other fish in the sea. Seems that chances are good that it will come down for a look at sub 390 again in the coming days.
ReplyDeletepop and drop on aapl. As an article headline summed it up "investors to aaple: meh"... glad I sold at 405... Note sure if I posted it here, or on another blog, but last week I longed aapl at $390, stating a 1:7 risk/reward ration ($5 downside and a potential $35 upside.) Apple hit $385 the morning after and hit ~$428 AH y'day... Not a shabby r:w prediction or what!?
ReplyDeleteY'day somebody asked me about my EW count, however I don't know if this revered to AAPL or the SPX?
AAPL may be in a big fat wave 2... can wipe out ~62% of all it's gains...
SPX is kinda messy
1) either finishing a wave 2 up, with a 3 down to come, this would bring SPX to 1480s...
2) or finishing a b-wave up, with a c down to come, which targets 1530s-1480s
3) or working on a 5-waves up, with y'day being some degree 3rd wave and today some degree 4th wave. this would bring SPX to 1620s
That's the best I can do, next few days will give a whole lot more of info.
Btw, I am long F (since 12.50), and note the ghost spikes at 12:14 and 12:16 ET today... ridiculous... what's up with the bots these days...
ReplyDeleteKS, are you following gold or the miners? I am on the sidelines, but I noticed an island reversal in NUGT, the leveraged bull gold miners ETF. Does that look like a promising reversal pattern to you? (Anyone else following gold/miners, please post your analysis.)
ReplyDeleteYep, the island started at 13.73 and lower falling from 16.75 so there is potential to jump from 13.75 to 16.75 on the way up with an island reversal. Another test of the low may be prudent but the miner charts are all looking long and strong right now. The miners were beaten badly in that gold drop. They have been beaten down the most so they already paid their dues whereas the broad market has not. It is an attractive sector here on out. NUGT may be best as a long with a slow scale-in at these levels allowing time for it to base if it retraces back down. GDX, GDXJ, all the individual miners have the same set-up. If willing to be patient, the miners are an attractive sector for longs right now.
DeleteThanks, KS--good to have your analysis. GLD seems to be tracing out a bearish rising wedge, so we may get that retrace to retest lows. Technically, I'd prefer to see a double bottom or overthrow to a new low with positive divergence in the indicators...
DeleteI just missed the miner rise on the reversal can't figure it. Too weird. I was in AUY, ABX last few days and the crap reversals of almost a point on some after early morning, led me to throw in the towel even when I was in on the bottom (AUY 11.06, ABX 17.56) both times I got fed up with the charts and no I guess I lose as the reverals "Seems" in. Miners are the new tech stock fashion day traders for the next weeks. Notice techs have simmered down with the shorting, miner manipulation is the new game.
ReplyDeleteThat's good to know that since that is what you look for next time. That stuff occurs in speculative small caps all the time. A spec stock may start falling after you buy it, you hold it a few days, then over a day or two period, it drops strongly. They are trying to pull all the weak hands out, and those shares are given to the institutions. Then, bingo, big recovery and launch higher after that. That is an accumulation game, shaking out weak hands to benefit regular customers and give them the stock. The reason it is tricky is that sometimes a stock is a lousy stock heading for bankruptcy and they just keep falling because they are truly going belly-up. But after a while, you can start to sniff that stuff out, and then if you have capital kept available, and you are scaling in you could even attempt a buy as you run into the fire not away from it. Sounds like you are on the right track.
DeleteThank KS
Deletearnie, do u have a stop level for your shorts?
ReplyDelete1597 SPX Cash
DeleteThanx for sharing this good info,you always provide good information and tips, We also provides trading tips,mcx tips,ncdex tips, Commodity market updates, free commodity calls , MCX tips,we have 10 days free trial offer also.
ReplyDeleteRegards,
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